Another poll gives Gordon the red light
June 22nd, 2008
Unregistered BPIX puts the Tories on 49%
The start of Brown’s first anniversary week sees more disappointing poll news - this time from BPIX - the polling firm that is not registered with the British Polling Council and whose website consists of just one page that has been “under construction” for several years.
The survey, in the Mail on Sunday, is the first from the pollster since October last year so there’s no real point in showing comparisons. Today’s figures, based on a sample of 2,385 who were questioned online between Wednesday and Friday are: CON 49%: LAB 26%: LD 14%.
My understanding is that the fieldwork for BPIX polls is carried out by YouGov which provides the service on a “white label” basis. The frustrating element is that they never publish their full data and never answer email requests when people like me ask for it. So we don’t know, for instance, the form of the questions and whether they follow the YouGov system of weighting by party ID. But their work is published by a major national newspaper and in May 2005 their final poll was one of the most accurate.
A 49% Tory share was last seen in a YouGov survey for the Sun just after the local elections and Boris’s London win in May. The BPIX Labour 26% is the same as has been reported in the latest surveys from ICM and ComRes and is one point higher than the recent Populus and YouGov polls - so a level of consistency across the firms is emerging there.
The figure that is out of line with the other firms is the 14% Lib Dem share which is 7 points below what ICM last reported and 4 points down on YouGov. Without seeing the data it is impossible to suggest a reason. In October 2007 the “firm” was also reporting the lowest LD shares - then it was down to 11%.
The Mail on Sunday report has a series of graphics on the poll which look as though they are straight out of the Jeremy Vine play book.
Will it affect the betting? Probably not. The spread markets are still suggesting a Conservative overall majority of 32 - which is way below the seat levels you get by putting these numbers into the standard calculators.
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I thought BPIX had applied for BPC membership and during the Mayoral race (or whenever the last major poll was I recall coming out) they released the full data even though they didn’t have to in preparation for eventually becoming BPC members.
Whatever happened to that? Or was that another firm?
Pawlenty tipped for McCain’s running mate
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4187549.ece
1 I think that was MRUK, Philip.
The Daily Mail is a disgrace any way.
Will David Cameron sack his PPC for Ayrshire North & Arran? (Sorry no link cos posting from mobile. See Sunday Herald.)
re 1. That pollster, as Morus rightly says, was MRUK. They did mayoral polls for the Sunday Times and were highly co-operative in providing data. My understanding is that BPIX is run by some academics at the University of Essex. I noted as long ago as January 2006 that their website had been “under construction for months”.
It still is.
seanT
When the Tories were in power MPs were regularly found naked and dead on their kitchen tables, with stockings wrapped around their necks and small citrus fruits stuffed in their mouths.
“Regularly”? Once in about 200 years?
Oh, just a heads up for you guys, David Icke of “shape shifting lizards control the world” fame is apparently considering a run in Haltemprice and Howden. Wonder if David Davis is a lizard?
That reminds me of the first lines in David Icke’s book “It Doesn’t Have To Be Like This” which he wrote as a prominent member of the Green Party, before he became an insane booliak:
“Well what a turn-up. From professional footballer to television presenter to green politician. Whatever next?
Nothing next.
There is nothing I could possibly do that is more important, more urgent, than campaign for Green values at the heart of politics. What is left of my life will be dedicated to that end.”
By special request for RodCrosby
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdM8PDu6VMg
Wow! “Cabaret” is one of my favourite films, and that song is my favourite bit of it. I was also amused by the Spitting Image (1987) version, including Edward Heath as the disgruntled lefty intellectual about half way through.
It reminds me that I sometimes think “What eventually happened to them?” when I watch “Triumph of the Will” and look at the rows of enthusiastic handsome teenage boys at the Nazi rally before it all went horrid.
Several people have commented that Wendy Alexander is an idiot, a cretin, even worse than Gordon Brown, etc.; this is true but shurely her most heinous crime is that her face and mouth make her look like Jade Goody?
Maybe Mr Davis is making inroads into Liberal territory.
Mr Dale seems to think this poll is a tipping point for the Prime Minister, I bow to his greater knowledge but I am flumoxed as to how Mr Brown can have a worse year.
3 Yes it was MRUK I was thinking of.
Whatever happened to that? Are they becoming BPC members?
10 - Well from June to September of the last year things were pretty good, including poll leads. I think the next year will be worse in that he won’t have a single good month.
Having had a quick trawl thro last nights comments, some of the strange questions mentioned that BPIX asked were not in my survey questions, so I think YOU GOV is still to come.
OFf to France…….
before I go, Iain Dale has some horrendous news for Gordon in the detail of the poll. Has anyone ever polled worse than this>>???
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
“I think it is a disgrace that the Mail on Sunday continues to use a firm that can’t be ars*d to join the British Polling Council” - Can’t be ars*d or doesn’t want to because it isn’t sufficiently confident about how it produces the numbers?
8. “It reminds me that I sometimes think “What eventually happened to them?” when I watch “Triumph of the Will” and look at the rows of enthusiastic handsome teenage boys at the Nazi rally before it all went horrid.”
It should really be pointed out that the very fact that there were ‘rows of enthusiastic handsome teenage boys at Nazi rallies’ was indicative that things had already gone horrid; the natural consequences just hadn’t been played through in 1934.
But you’re right in a sense. There’s little quite so sad as watching youthful optimism of the past, knowing now how badly misplaced that optimism was (though obviously in that particular case, grotesquely badly misjudged as well).
Polling numbers like this may be “in line” with recent (registered) polls but it is to be taken with salt when they don’t register! I wonder if the weighting they do or do not employ is one of the reasons for the below average LibDem score?
Just finished reading the “Civil Liberties” poll in the Economist. Not sure who posed the leading questions, but the expression “Sir Humphrey, you excel yourself” springs to mind.
Totally useless poll of the “Have you stopped beating your wife?” variety. Best ignored.
Can I recommend the Andrew Marr programme “History of Britain” available on bbc iplayer. It is an excellent review of what will be forever known as the ‘lost decade’. The shameless, vacuous, shallow time of Blair is cruelly exposed by Marr. A great programme
Whether voodoo or not, the poll reinforces the message that Labour is terminally damaged.
SERIOUS POINT ALERT: we still have two years of a Labour Party with a sizeable working majority, no money - and very little prospect of obtaining it. It if had a soul, the Labour Party would sell it over the next two years for cash. Instead, it might as well have a giant neon sign hanging out front of the Palace of Westminster that “no offers will be refused”. Every lobbyist will be able to get bargain basement legislation through in the next 18 months, regardless of the broader cost to the country.
We have already seen this week a meeting between Govt.Minister and the GM industry - with the compliant Minister then trotting out the “we must do more to facilitate GM crops” line hours later.
This Govt. has even begun to plumb the depths of tawdriness….
re 14. I think that Iain is getting a little bit over-excited about the poll. Firstly it can easily be dismissed because of the pollster, secondly it was in the Mail on Sunday and thirdly Labour would have never have chosen Gordon in the first place if the party had been concerned with poll ratings.
As I’ve been pointing out the polls before Gord’s coronation a year ago almost all pointed to an electoral disaster with him as leader. Labour MPs thought they knew better, sought to rubbish the polling and people like me who were highlighting it, and gave him the job without a contest anyway.
So the polls are hardly going to make a difference now.
re 20. The GM food decision is, of course, totally right and it was just the scare tactics of so called green groups and papers like the Indy that caused the limitations in the first place.
Good on Labour for supporting GM.
22 - Yes, Labour has called GM right and the other parties are being opportunistic. It would not be enough to influence my vote though.
I’m not sure why you think it’s a disgrace who the Mail on Sunday use, Mr Smithson. Surely they’re entitled to spend their money in whatever way they think fit? It’s not as if they’re spending it on class A drugs and hookers.
I hope the government has called GM right, but remember MacMillan’s government called Thalidomide right at the time.
re 24. If the MoS is putting out something that is purporting to be an opinion poll then a paper of its standing should ensure that the poll follows the agreed standard of the polling industry.
The British Polling Council is playing a critical part in ensuring a proper level of transparency which can only increase confidence.
My strong view is that leading papers should not be allowed to put out what are called polls from bodies that do not follow the rules.
26 Mike S. Do you think then that I should turn down offers on my ARSE from the “Hersham Bugle” and the “Washington Post” ???
24. And what’s so wrong with spending your money on class A drugs and hookers?
24… And what’s so wrong with spending your money on class A drugs and hookers?
26 - This is a philosophical difference between us. Little harm comes from an erroneous political opinion poll. I see no need for greater regulation, though the opinion pollsters themselves may see advantage in having standards of the type you mention, since their customers (the newspapers) will have more confidence in what they are buying. If the newspapers are satisfied by other pollsters, that’s their business. While we might both agree that we should place less weight on it than a poll from another company, we have no reason to suppose that this is a bogus poll.
There is a thought-provoking article on regulation in this week’s Economist:
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11591407&fsrc=RSS
Mike S this poll is nnot ‘easily dismissed’ because in the past it has been very accurate.
You are rushing off to get the faggots hot because they will not join the union, but they are academics and probably sell the odd poll to pay for their overall research.
Publishing their data and methodology is no guarantee that a pollster is accurate or reliable. Look at MORI and its massive swings. They and others who are registered have had to review their methods recently and the fact that they are ‘registered’ does nothing in those cicrumstances to assure us on their accuracy.
New SUSA Poll for Washington State :
McCain 40% .. Obama 55%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c4ab7114-09d9-428a-8ea9-74a13485d8e7
24 - The comparison with personal consumption is ludicrous. Newspapers are businesses built on some pretence of basic editorial standards, and using a pollster with no transparenccy over its methods (if it has any) undermines that. But then it is the Mail.
30 - No, it’s no guarantee but at least if you have the data and methodology you can discuss it. What would you think of an academic article that just published its conclusions and didn’t bother troubling us with the methodology/reasoning?
Is anyone running against David Davis?
I’m out of the country at the moment and haven’t been able to follow the story.
34 - Greens and other mixed fruits only.
Its good to see Labourhome want Gordon to be sacked….. please dont go Gordon…. we want you to stay….
35. There was talk of the former sun editor before i left, what happened to that?
21 - no they supported him because
1) they saw no alternative, so dominant was he (and also they feared the consequences if he didn’t get it as a result)
2) they thought once the public got to “know” him, the polls would turn in his favour
1) no longer applies and 2) has been thus far proven wrong.
Oh No!
WOULD YOU SUPPORT DAVID ICKE TO STAND IN THE UPCOMING UK PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION CALLED TO DEFEND CIVIL LIBERTIES AGAINST BIG BROTHER?
He will stand under the title ‘Big Brother – The Big Picture’ if there is enough organisational and financial support to do a professional job in the short time we have to get this together.
37 - News International pulled the plug
‘Newspapers are businesses built on some pretence of basic editorial standards’
the key word there being ‘pretence’
Ian dale is way off.
Fact is that if Labour improves in the polls, say to minus 10%, then Brown is MORE likely to get kicked out. At present no one else wants it
42, I’m not so sure.
If Brown begins a modest recovery (say to -10 as you mention) he’s safe. If he stays where he is I think they could, theoretically, ditch him before 2009 (but they won’t). Only if his score goes even further down (ie behind the Lib Dems) is he certain to go.
Labour could’ve, and arguably should’ve, used 42 days not just to vote against the measure but the enable themselves to get a new leader. The fact that many were persuaded to be obedient little backbenchers over fears of Brown’s departure points to the PLP being ill-disposed to the idea of a new leader.
Overheard in the pub last night…
“Gordon Brown is the Millwall of politics. No-one likes him, and he doesn’t care”.
44. It’s remarkable how Brown has managed to completely poison the Labour brand, which Blair had already contaminated. I think most people would rather have a leper in their house now than a Labour MP.
Anyone got information from Henley? Some of you must have been there yesterday. I would be interested to learn if Boris’ intervention has burst the LibDem bubble.
I agree with Mike. A major news paper should use the industry standard and BPIX aren’t.
We’ll have to see if this trend is confirmed by other pollsters. However i have set ut at length my anxieties about the LD’s handing “liberty” as an isue to davis and the Conservatives. lets jst hope this is a rouge alhough i’m mindful of Smithsons first law.
(27 - The Bugle and its select but perfectly formed readership will be distraught that you have also been bestowing the favours of your soft peach organ to the grubby mass market. Isn’t the Washington Post read by AMERICANS? Is nothing sacred? Have you no shame?)
I like any poll which puts the odious LDs where they belong!!
That’s a big sample, 2385. But not as big as a teletext poll. Any more accurate?
49 - ouch!
49. You just don’t understand us. Would you like to come to a Wine and Cheese ?
48 John O. Profuse apols !!!
….. I should have been clearer - The Washington Post is the monthly organ of County Durham’s finest purveyors of vertical wooden artifices !!
46. Went yesterday, the Tory office didn’t have much for us to do. Canvassed 3 times now and just sending leaflets out now. Think it’s just a case of getting the vote out.
I have had a look at the article Stuart Dickson referred to on PHilip Lardner in the Sunday Herald in Scotland. I have also read the blogs on their website including a couple of replies from Philip. What seems clear is that Philip has long held views on Zimbabwe which others may or may not agree with but they are not racist. Equally what is clear is that a pathetic example of journalistic stitch-up has been perpetrated on a PPC who should have known better than to give a 40 minute interview to a poitical journalist spontaneously on an unplanned phone call. Lardner has been quoted but as is common, taking his explanation on the blog, comments and sentences have been chopped to create an entirely different message.
It is interesting that all those carping about his comments fail to comment on the genocide being conducted in the name of Mugabe on the supporters of his opposition and if Labour and Gordon Brown are so keen on fighting wars (the pacifist Mr Blair fought 5)then why are they not either 1) removing Mugabe to enable free elections to occur or 2) announcing to those surrounding Mugabe that if they dont remove him, they will all be facing a one-way ticket to the Hague!
I dont happen to agree with many of Philip Lardner’s views but I uphold his right both to hold them and express them as represented by his response in the blog rather than the sensational headline in the paper. I well remember a journalist from another Sunday broadsheet on asking me for an interview telling me that either I could give him an interview and have a chance of expressing my views or he would just go ahead and print the biased filth he had already written and then I could always sue his paper, knowing full well normal middle class people cannot afford to sue national newspapers!
46 - I’m not sure how much of a bubble there was to burst.
Alistair Darling has just told Andrew Marr our economy is in better shape than it was 10 years ago.No wonder I thought he was a complete idiot when I debated against him at Edinburgh University in 1981 when he was a leading light on Edinburgh City Council
56 Apparently we are in line for a “crushing humiliation” (according to some Conservative posters last week). I will go over the next few days, and take my own soapy water.
57, that’s mind-numbingly stupid. I imagine we’ll have the best economy ever when repossessions rise and inflation hits 6%.
Reminds me of the outrageous Brown lie, when at PMQs he claimed to have inherited a troubled economy from Ken Clarke.
57. Your comments on the Union were very sad. So nothing can be done then? I’m not sure how your predictions of the best Tory Scottish night since 1992 square with that. My feeling is Scotland will move into the Quebec position always threatening but never quite wanting to move out of the marital home.
BTW Is anything known about who is the owner of BPIX.
58 - I can’t see a crushing humiliation for the LDs either. I would have thought that Boris’s visit would merely serve to remind them what a colourful MP they used to have. Little bearing on the by-election.
10. I think Labour’s position can get even worse. When you think that the economy is only just really starting to tank. If we was to go into a recession and big numbers of unemployed (not saying we will, just if we did) Labour numbers would drop down into the teens, IMO, and the Tories would go into the 50’s.
It seems that William Hill is offering 7/1 that DD will form his own party.
Anyone fancy those odds?
Bishop Hill blog tries to tease out an underlying rationale:
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2008/6/21/the-realignment.html
62.The nadir of Labours fortunes will follow a humiliating lost deposit in Henley.
At last! A political campaign for me to be active in!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7467702.stm
The real significance of this poll is that it will disprove the belief that some Labour MPs had (or were promised) that if they backed Gordon on 42 days it would reinforce him and start the fight back in the polls.
Labour MPs wasted their support on Brown and prostituted their principles on 42 days. This will fester in their minds as each day goes by.
Iain Dale calls it a tipping point, we may well be at that point where Labour MPs believe that there is little point in backing Brown as things will only get worse the longer he hangs around.
A poll with Labour on 19 points or the Conservatives on 50 points, or the LDs ahead of Labour could well be the triggers for a revolt.
65, got grey squirrels near me. Never seen a red one though:(
And what about black squirrels?
Just put my daily bet of £100 on with Ladbrokes that Labour will lose their deposit in Henley. That’s the maximum they will allow me each day and the odds are only 1/2. But as far as I’m concerned it’s as near to free money as you are going to get.
There’s a very dirty, slightly shameful truth lying underneath Brown’s unpopularity. It’s always coming up when commentators anatomise his public persona and sometimes even when opponents seek to criticize his character, but no one has given it the explanatory centrality it merits. Gordon Brown is boring. And he is boring at a time when it is a very unfashionable failing to have.
We can accept people who swindle us, coerce us, humiliate us; people who set out to best us and achieve it; people who neglect us, who outperform us, who forget our names. Rogues, hedonists, flaneurs, roués, egotists we can forgive: those who transgress or get the better of us, those who wrong us, but who do it with a little style or some forgivable ambition, even some understandable selfishness. But we will not forgive those who bore us. People who steal our time, numb our pleasure centres, turn our fast-coursing blood to gravy – all of this generally without understanding or feeling the warranted contrition – belong in the most ingeniously appointed circle of hell. We will never forgive them.
People in the media suffer most from boring politicians and are the least willing to suffer them. They are the ones who have to spend their time thinking about the offending politician and writing about them. After Blair they were desperate for something new and interesting – for a while they thought they had it (Brown was the non-partisan ‘father of the nation’) – but then he clumsily revealed that he was a partisan politician through the election-that-never-was. That destroyed the novel line the media was taking: it turned out that Brown was just like Blair, but more boring. Much of the strength of the media response to Brown’s government is conscious or unconscious media resentment.
To read more visit my blog, just who the hell are? on wordpress.com, at:
http://adammcnestrie.wordpress.com/wp-admin/post.php?action=edit&post=6
68 Mike S. I really do think that Ladbrokes shop staff have cottoned on to some of your recent subterfuges !!
http://www.angelsentertainment.biz/_images/enlarged/lee-tracey.gif
68. Betting now suspended. You’ve scared them off Mike!
49. I’d rather put lard on the cat’s boils than meet a group of LDs!:))
68. If Paul Linford is laying longish odds against GB making his 2nd anniversary in Downing Street will you follow.
69. Beautifully written, Adam, but wrong.
Boring? No; Miliband is Boring, Major was boring.
Gordons problem is not that he is boring it’s that he is mendacious and utterly, totally and blindly partisan.
Voters hate obvious partisanship in their leaders, they know it happens but they punish leaders who take decisions that are ‘too political’.
Initially in his first summer Brown ‘reached out’ inviting non politicians into Government, for instance. People saw him as someone prepared to ‘do the right thing’ ahead of petty party politics.
His downfall has coincided exactly with this mask slipping, begun by the election cancellation and then with the 10p rate.
So quick has this revesal been that his early actions now look like a con - he was trying to *trick* us into thinking he was mr nice guy…
It’s not about his presentation and to think otherwise is to head for a further drubbing. It is about the substance of the man, what makes him tick, that the voetrs have figured out and don’t like.
74 - rarely do I agree with you, but I do here. Major and Milliband, dull but likeable. Affable enough characters. But would you want a drink down the pub with Gordon Brown?
75 - it was said during the 1997 GE campaign that voters would far rather have had a drink with Major than Blair or Ashdown. I have to agree. I admire Ashdown greatly, and know that Blair had a lot going for him, but an hour of social small talk with either of them. Insufferable! An hour chatting about cricket to Major would still be a pleasure!
From the BBC
June 22, 2008
Darling calls for pay restraint
Chancellor Alistair Darling says pay rises for people “from the boardroom to the shopfloor” need to be “consistent” with the 2% inflation target.
From The Sunday Times
June 22, 2008
MPs set to claim £40,000 perk
Beam me up, Scottie!
76 You would never get the orders in
“What will you have then Gordon”
“Well Ahhh that is a hard decision to make…perhaps…nooh..I think…nooh..”
77-Back tot he future!! Wages and income policies anyone?
In celebrating Gordon’s anniversary next Friday, let us not forget it is also the end of Darling Alistair’s triumphal first year
What an exciting and dynamic year he has had and how clever he has been to ensure that, providing you ignore ONS figures, all is for the best in the best of all possible economic worlds.
Apart from believing in the Tooth Fairy, he also thinks Labour could “turn this around” and win the next general election.
We all feel so much more secure, knowing our finances are in the hands of a man whose finger is so firmly on the national pulse.
49 etc. There’s not much doubt that, apart from a few partisans, most posters here prefer any party, and I do mean any party, to the Lib Dems.
But then, as a mere voter, I have found Lib Dem councillors and MPs to be helpful, in great contrast to those from any other party.
Punter,
Scottish politics have always been incredibly complex. Until the 1980s it was relatively straightforwad. In the main urban areas, if you were Protestant, you almost certainly voted Tory, if you were Roman Catholic you almost certainly voted Labour. All over cities like Glasgow this polarisation was obvious. In the affluent areas of the west end like Glasgow Hillhead (Tory MP, all Tory Regional councillors, all Tory district councillors)or southside. Glasgow Cathcart (Tory MP until 1979,most areas all Tory controlled except the presence of Castlemilk which was staunch Labour) and also southside, Pollockshields, Pollockshaws, Shawlands etc whereas areas like the Gorbals, Carlton and the sprawlng housing estates like Easterhouse, Drumchapel and Castlemilk which were overwhelmingly made up of the descendants of Irish immigrants were solid Labour. There wer large pockets of working class Glasgow which voted Tory, places like Carntyne, Ballieston/Garrowhill etc which voted Tory and in these areas there was a strong presence of the Orange Order and the Tory councillor was often a leading figure in the Orange order. When I stood for Strathclyde Regional Council in 1982 in the middle of my Law Honours exams (much to the horror of my Regius Professor)I stood in Baillieston/Garrowhill in the Shettleston constituency and my proposer was the immiedate past Tory councillor for Garrowhill who had been Master of the Local Orange Lodge and I was confidently informed that would be worth at least 500 votes alone.
Between 1977 and 1980 Glasgow was run by a Tory/SNP coalition when the Tories had nearly 30 Glasgow councillors (we now have 1)and it was said of the 33 Labour councillors, they were all eligible to have season tickets for PArkhead because every one was Roman Catholic. I never bothered to check that claim but had no reason to doubt it.
My mother was the Legal Assistant to Harry McGoldrick the only Roman Catholic Tory councillor in the 1960s and because of his religion he came witin a whisker of losing a council seat which his Tory successor won with a majority of over 4,000.
I know certainly that because my grandfather had played for Celtic in 1934 it was assumed he was Roman Catholic and nicknamed “Kelly Sutherland”. That resulted in him not getting crtain jobs within the newspaper industry.
Thankfully that religious polarisation has long gone, due largely to Margaret Thatcher, because most Scots of all religions hated her.
Until the 2007 elections, with the odd exeption like Dundee and the Western Isles, the SNP tended to do well when the Tories did badly and vice versa. Normally Tory voters switched directly to the SNP. However in 2007 both the Tories and the SNP did well, the Tories by holding on to what they had when the polls were predicting the loss of as many as 10 seats and the SNP by picking up over 20 seats.
There is a growing confidence across Scotland that we can achieve much more on our own. As I said earlier, Tony Blair creating the Scottish Parliament fired the starting gun for independence. The difference between Scotland and Quebec is Quebec has never been more than a province within a country and it is in effect the main French enclave whereas Scotland always has been a separate country with its own religion, its own legal and education systems which have more in common with those of France or the Netherlands than with those of England and of course in recent decades we Scots have had the London media and Home Counties centric politicos telling us we are scroungers and leaches while helping themselves to 35 years of oil and gas reserves. Edinburgh is also the 4th biggest financial centre in Europe and the Royal Bank of Scotland is England’s 2nd biggest bank.
Politics in Scotland is now more a generational thing. Older people tend to be unionist, whether Tory, Labour or LibDem and younger people tend to be nationalisic. However the biggest change is the group in the middle.
Frankly hearing the BBC talk about England when it means Britain, sports reporters claiming successful Scots as British (people like Andy Murray being a classic case as he considers himself Scots not British and was criticised last year for saying so by the London media)yet claiming English football thugs are British not English. Having report after report on the BBC talk about this health service policy or that education policy and never once mention the fact that none have any relevance to Scotland etc or people like Kelvin Mackenzie caling the Scots all manner of unpleasant thing when almost every major invention in modern life we take for granted was invented or discovered by a Scot (including the Bank of England) leads the average Scot to say well if we are so bad, just let us go!!
The BBC is now so worried about its effect on the nation v nations debate that last weekend a scathing report was issued criticising its total lack of understanding of the UK post devolution.
This Government in 1997 controlled every part of the UK except Ulster, Now it is arguable it controls no part of the UK and indeed as lst week’s vote on 42 days showed, Ulster appears to be controlling it! Seriously though we have a Nationalist minority government in a coalition in all but name with the Tories in Scotland and a Labour/Plaid coalition in Wales. All the polls are suggesting that Labour in 2010 will go from around 70+ MPs between Wales and Scotland down to less than 50 which in post 1945 politics is catastrophic.
The Tories can still do well in Scotland as the country moves towards independence because now they present an alternative to unionist voting Scots who want to give Labour a kicking but as we have around 400,000 votes now compared to the 900,000+ in 1979, we will never be more than the comfortable 3rd party of Scottish politics and if the SNP achieves 20-25 MPs in 2010 the odds are it will achieve 55+ MSPs in 2011. The biggest worry for the Union now is that a growing number of Scots are simply not interested in what happens in Westminster or England!
As many as 3% think GB is “charismatic” - this must be the 3% who don’t know what the word means and think it is an insult.
83 - no, those 3% are confusing him with Roy Chubby Brown.
Any future realignment in politics is probably overdue anyway. I’m not talking about WWI/WWII style formations and such, but with the last great birth the SDP near-off 30 years ago, the switch in political beliefs in the modern context, and re-positioning of all mainstream parties, clearly points to something happening around the next election.
Now this could be a merry-go-round of defections, but it could be something more stark. Certain branches of Labour/Tories/Lib Dems forming their own Centrist Party (or what have you), a more traditional socialist Labour Party, a Liberal Unionist Party…the changes we have seen in party loyalties on the side of voters has to be “caught up” by the parties eventually. Maybe we will see it soon?
69- what a lyrical post Adam! I wish I could write like you.
67 Morris Dancer. Friends of mine are convinced that the “Black Squirrel” article was a clever April Fool joke. Anyone here actually seen one?
85, be surprised if it happened with the Tories, given they’re riding high. Bloody daft time to leave the party.
It could happen with Labour if things continue as they are or even decline. The modernisers could split (perhaps joining the Lib Dems) from traditionalists who go back to a more traditional, leftwing platform (and electoral oblivion).
87, was it on April Fool’s?
If so, whoops:p
In fairness squirrels aren’t the easiest creatures to see given their propensity to run away very quickly.
Hmm. Perhaps Brown’s economic competence was an April Fool’s as well, one that got out of hand?
88 - I am not sure which way round the Labour party could split. The modernisers, as you say, could join the LibDems evenutally, but maybe it won’t happen that way round; the traditionally left/socialist members could leave to form a new party leaving the centrists to their own (possibly re-named?) Labour party.
I think there are 2 points that will tip Brown over- either the Tories polling over 50%, and Labour polling under the LD’s. Both will happen I think by the autumn.
The worst thing for Gordon is that the longer he stays the more his poll falls.
Mike, “I think it is a disgrace that the Mail on Sunday continues to use a firm that can’t be ars*d to join the British Polling Council and follow the transparency requirements that all the other pollsters adhere to.”
Here here!
Punter and others, further to my posting at 82, I have just opened page 6 of The Scotsman of Thursday 12th June to see the headline “Labour in danger of losing votes of Catholics”. The article refers to an open letter which James MacMillan the Scottish composer has written to WEndy Alexander which has been printed in the Catholic Observer. In it he basically says because Scottish Labour MPs voted to allow abortion and human-animal embryos, it may lose them TENS OF THOUSANDS of votes at the next election. Certainly when I stood for Parliament in 1987, the Parish priests were ordered by Cardinal Winning to tell their flock to vote Labour but clearly by implication from the Scotsman article, the close link between the Roman Catholic church and the Labour party in Scotland is alive and well. However it seems from the 2007 Holyrood vote that more and more Roman Ctholics must now also be voting for the SNP.
I am surprised by the amount of criticism the Mail on Sunday is getting here for using a non BPC firm. It’s a little like politics we get what we deserve. It could be productive if those that feel strongly about this issue directly complained to the newspaper and also attempted to expose the issue in rival newspapers.
87 Black squirrels are as rare as Labour voters………
Both Mary Ann Sieghart and Peter Oborne (neither Labour placemen as far as I know) agreed this morning on AM that the reason Cameron is doing so well in the polls is that the world is going pear shaped, Britain’s bit of the pear is riper than much of the rest, Gordon Brown is like a rabbit with the headlights in his eyes so cannot do anything about it and the British people really really really want to believe that there might be someone who can do something about it. By being plausible in a totally ‘Tony Blair’ way (the polls also show the country would like the Sultan of Spin back in preference to Brown), Cameron manages to remain highly-popular without anyone being able to say what he might do differently to any real effect. Collectively, the British would prefer to believe in magic nonsense than to face reality.
While I am not, definitely not (can I say it three times?) suggesting that Cameron is in any way like Hitler, I would suggest that these conditions today in the UK are similar (overall not specific) to those which allowed Hitler to come to power in Germany. Clouds loom on the horizon, the people are desperate for someone who they can believe will bring about a better future when all the signs are that the future for Britain is quite murkey. So they are willing to try products with no track record but with highly-attractive packaging. The Conservatives are doing an excellent impression of being a universal comfort blanket. While the present situation produces big numbers for Cameron in the polls there is really very little ‘brand loyalty’ in British politics these days and, once it is established (IF it ever is) that this particular emperor has no more clothes than Blair before him, we might see horrific fluctuations in different parts of the country towards different political forces. These may well include UKIP and/or the BNP or nationalists - even the Greens if people are feeling desperate. And of course the Liberal Democrats if they get the act together! Gordon Brown is clinging to the belief that election time he will present the voters with the abyss and they will say collectively:’better the devil you know’.
I say ‘IF’ with regards to the population as a whole rumbling Cameron’s Conservatives (Alan Duncan’s ‘green’ show this morning was a traversty of history) because, during an otherwise totally dire performance this morning, Alistair Darling (whose one function in life appears to be to make Gordon Brown appear exciting and competent in comparison) only managed to say one thing of any sense; that the Conservatives are attacking Labour now for doing things which the Tories themselves supported (in terms of spending levels) in the not too distant past. Repeated often enough by less partial and more competent commentators this might just catch on.
68,71 Ladbrokes have re-opened their Henley Labour Lost Deposit market:
Yes 0.4/1
No 1.75/1
95 I have seen both black and albino squirrels here in Worthing in the last 12 months .
97. Thanks Peter. Time to make some money!
98 but no labour voters?
98 - what about Labour voters?
92 Benedict - was disappointed to find BPIX used YouGov.
Had hoped that their results would turn out to be based on a complex method of divination updated to cybermancy through use of computers. Imagined a secret cabal in Essex using perhaps a bit of astrology (note their rare appearances seem close to equinoxes or other times of astrological significance), augury, numerology, bone casting and chicken sacrifices (virgin sacrifices being out as it is Essex after all).
96. What was Alan Duncans ‘green’ show?
87 - I recall that Black Squirrels seem to be concentrated around Letchworth (of all places). Having seen them when I lived near there, I can attest to their existence (unless I am a spoof post myself of course….)
Mary Ann Bighead is back in public life? What wonderful news!
That squirrel article is appalling journalism from the BBC.
“But Andrew Tyler, the director of Animal Aid, told Five Live the project was “absurd”. “It’s hateful and bigoted,” he said.
Yes, Andrew, and I’m sure it’s “racist” too.
Quite bizarrely, the article doesn’t even mention the squirrel pox virus, which is the underlying reason behind the Northumberland cull. The virus, which is transmitted from grey to red squirrels, kills the reds up to 25 times faster than competition for habitat.
AC @65 - what a superb spin our nationalised media (the BBC :-()
put on the story. First it’s the toffs wot killed off all the reds by shootin’ ‘em all, then they (Liberal Democrat peer Lord Redesdale, remember) want to kill off all the greys by “first trapping, then shooting them”.
As PA to an aspiring LD peer, can I say when we want shoot someone, sorry something, it’s considered very unsporting to have your gillie hold it down first.
Re the Union. My hunch is that Scotland will, as Punter says, do a Quebec - always hint at divorce without ever actually doing it. This gives Scotland maximum leverage to extract maximum benefits from the Union - e.g. governing themselves while providing half the government of England, too.
Frankly, the Scots would be daft to give that up; they are not daft. Question is - will the English continue to tolerate it? I suspect they will, thought the Tories will have to do some tinkering with the WLQ, at least.
The SNP face a further, very serious problem. Their whole independence policy is predicated on independence-in-Europe. But we have now seen with Ireland, how small countries - like Ireland or a putative independent Scotland - are actually treated in the EU.
Basically they are either ignored, trampled over or menaced into submission. It now seems very probable, for instance, that Ireland will have to vote again on Lisbon - this despite innumerable vows and assurances from Yes campaigners that there would only be one referendum, no second vote, the people’s will shall be respected.
What total bollocks. The will of a small country like Ireland is only respected inasmuch as it accords with the will od France and Germany, and the euro-elite. When a small country gets the vote “wrong” - they are simply asked to vote again until they get it right, a la Mugabe.
Small countries aren’t even paid the courtesy of having the Treaty rewritten in some pretend way. The Treaty Ireland shall vote on, is, it seems, going to be exactly the same as the first one -! - only with some “declarations” added. The text of the actual Treaty will be completely untouched.
When France and Holland said No, the reaction was very different. Then the Treaty had to be rewritten (albeit in a pretend way). So the votes of big countries get a least the pretence of respect, the votes of litte ones get nothing.
So that’s how the EU treats small countries - they are bullied and threatened into submission. Scotland would be a small country. And of course Scotland wouldn’t gain from the largesse that Ireland got thirty years ago, which made Ireland so pro-European. All that cash now goes East. Scotland would get zip.
Scotland might not even be able to lower its tax rates to compete like Ireland - France wants a harmonized corporate tax rate. As we see, what France wants in the EU, it usually gets. So Scotland can kiss goodbye to that opportunity, as well.
A final thought. The last big selling point for the SNP, re independence-in-Europe, is Scotland’s oil.
But would it really be Scotland’s oil in an ever-more-Federalising Europe? Lisbon already contains some curious passages relating to a “common energy policy”. I think under Lisbon Scotland would still be able, just, to hold on to its oil revenues.
But it is far from inconceivable that in, say, five or ten years time - as oil supplies dwindle around the world - we will see a new European Treaty, let’s call it the Treaty of Polperro. (though under Lisbon, of course, there is no need for any more Treaties - remaining national powers can be handed over to Brussels, on the nod, in the Council of Ministers)
But for old time’s sake let’s say there is a new EU Treaty, rather than just a vote in the Council. Let’s imagine this Treaty of Polperro had a clause saying, from now on, all energy resources within the EU are held in common, and the benefits and taxes distributed around Europe. It’s hardly an outlandish idea - its exactly what happens with fisheries.
This of course would cause uproar in litle independent Scotland, but every other country would be sanguine and relaxed - none of the others have oil.
Every other country would, therefore, probably pass Polperro. Scotland would surely vote No. Then the rest of Europe would gang up on Scotland and say: you better say Yes in a new vote, or you are out of the EU. This is of course what they would do, because it’s what they do to small countries - it’s what they are doing to Ireland.
What would Scotland do then? Vote No and leave the European Union? To do what, with her dwindling oil supplies?
Nasty.
There’s the SNP’s problem. Having now witnessed the reaction to Ireland’s No from the euro-elite, the EU is suddenly not the nice cosy place for cute small countries that the SNP likes to pretend - it is more like a streetgang where the little kids get whipped into line by the big boys. Ireland’s dire fate proves this.
Does Scotland want to be bullied similarly? At least as part of the UK she has a chance of asserting some power in Brussels. On her own, she would be another little squit of a country, to be sneered at and bullied by Sarko and the rest.
108. Ps apols for enormous post. Two Diet Cokes in a row!
re 97. Labour getting less than 5% is still value at 2/5.
In Tory held seats where the Lib Dems were clearly in second place at the previous general election the Labour share has a tendency to collapse. At Winchester in 1997 Labour slipped from 10.5% to 1.7%.
At Romsey in 2000 the Labour share slipped from 18.6% to 3.7%.
I will go on betting on this at Henley. Not big returns but pretty certain ones.
82 Interesting post, as always Easterross.
“The difference between Scotland and Quebec is Quebec has never been more than a province within a country and it is in effect the main French enclave whereas Scotland always has been a separate country with its own religion, its own legal and education systems which have more in common with those of France or the Netherlands than with those of England …”
But, that is not all right. Quebec has its own legal system (Napoleonic law) and its own educational system (French), its own immigration system, and its religion is different from the rest of Canada. It has a separate and distinct history and culture, and separate bank holidays, and a much stronger independence party than the SNP.
Crucially, Quebec has a much more visible sign of its difference from Anglo-Canada than Scotland does from England — there is a very vibrant and aggressive linguistic difference with almost universal French speaking everywhere (except for some parts of west Montreal).
Quebec is also very resources-rich, with oil, minerals and hydro-electric power in the vast Nouveau Quebec. And still Quebec has not broken free of Canada, although the bonds are now very loose.
I think you are wrong about Quebec — it is much, much, much, more different from Canada than Scotland (or Wales or even Eire) is from England.
96 Zebidee. The electorate (excluding you, of course) have certainly “rumbled” the Labour Party- permanently, we must all hope.The period 1997-2010? must never be repeated.
109 - One thing I would note is that a lot of the Tory literature in Henley goes hard after Labour and ignores the Lib Dems. I wonder if that might bolster Labour a little bit amongst their bedrock support (what there is of it in Henley). I think you are probably right that the odds are still a bit generous as a lost deposit is very likely but it is not quite “free money”.
I think the Tory literature I saw yesterday was a bit misjudged. The by election has been a typical hard fought battle between the Lib Dems and Tories. So putting out a “teach Brown a lesson” message just seemed a bit off-topic and pointless while the Lib Dems were going in hard on the Tory candidate’s suitability for high office in a seat that a pretty knowledgable electorate knows is a write-off for Labour even in a good year.
108.
“Two Diet Cokes in a row!”
Just don’t fall for John Prescott’s other foibles!
112 - so is the LD message, vote LD this time, and at the next GE you can elect a Tory worthy of Henley?
111 Many of my generation (late 30s,lower-middle/skilled manual) say precisely the same of 1979-1997-FWIW I have more or less conceded the next election,and comfort myself with 3 thoughts:
(a)Swingback and demographics almost certainly will cushion somewhat the loss of seats
(b)David Cameron will not be that right-wing at all
(c)If recent history is anything to go by,there’s a better tahn 50-50 chance some horrible mishap will befall his govt within 2 years of election-therefore as long as Labour coalesce around a three-quarters decent Leader of The Opposition,they may well return to gnational government sooner rather than later
108 Diet cokes! Diet! Give them up Sean, drink the real thing, ice cold and out of a glass bottle.
111.
“The period 1997-2010? must never be repeated.”
I agree totally. It was a decade and more of squandering assets and lost opportunity dominated by an urge to produce ‘a better yeaterday’. Sadly, I see nothing at all to suggest that David Cameron offers anything other than a repeat, or rather a false vision of ‘a better day-before-yesterday’.
82 I think 110 has you on Quebec. I’d only try repeating what you said about Quebec to a Quebecker from behind a Concrete Bunker. I fear also you moved into rant mode a little. Oil has moved up and it has moved down. Ten years ago it was $10 a Barrel not much subsidy from Scotland then. Equally it is true there are fair few numpties like Mackenzie but if you would care to remove the speck from your eye there are a few Rab C Nesbitts in the Blue corner who grew fond over the years of blaming all Scotland’s ills on the rest of the Union. To let either group allow themselves to be perceived by the other partner as the majority view either side of Hadrian’s fence would be a mistake of historic proportions.
114 - The voters of Henley are electing an MP to serve for the final two years or so of this Parliament. Who knows what candidates and what issues will be served up in two years time? You can only campaign for and vote in the election that is going on now. So I don’t see your point.
117 - “The period 1997-2010? must never be repeated”
I agree too. The eventual defeat of Labour in Parliament, followed by the election of the Tories, who tore themselves apart over the EU and the EPP, leading to David Davis forming a new party… and another GE; terrible times for the UK.
Of course all turned out for the better when Nick Clegg became PM with a huge majority in 2010.
93 I debated that with Morus. Similar stirrings south of the border as well. The upshot of the last ten years has been that on most conscience issues Catholics now seem closer to the bulk of the Tory Party than Labour. Morus was suggesting this could havin the future interesting effects.
111/117- what utter partisan rot- one thing that often turns me off pbCOM.
1994-2008 economically and socially has been a wonderful time to live in. The black spot has been global terror and wars which have rather put a dampner on things
119 - my point is that after two pretty impressive MPs, Henley are now threatened with a pretty dull Tory for the next 25 years. Surely the Tories could have come up with something a bit better. It is probably a job for life. That in itself should be enough to make any self-respecting Tory vote LD in Henley so they can have another shot with a better candidate at the GE.
107.”Frankly, the Scots would be daft to give that up; they are not daft. Question is - will the English continue to tolerate it? I suspect they will, thought the Tories will have to do some tinkering with the WLQ, at least.”
seant, with all respect that comment just about sums up the problem, and until that changes, we are heading for independence!
You are being fed one story in your media and we are being fed another in ours. You are being told that you subsidies us and that ferments the kind of ill feeling that turns this issue into a tinderbox. Result - you think we would daft to walk away from your largesse, but if you stop tolerating us, Scotland will be dumped but only on the terms of the English.
We on the other hand were given Devolution with one hand to strengthen Labour’s hold on Scotland, while being fed the story we could not survive on our own to protect the Union. Labour must have thought it was so clever, but in fact its had the opposite effect that was intended.
People can sit in their comfort zone and nod at the latest Daily Mail story or Kelvin McKenzie in the Sun (England only).
You can flex your muscles and tell us what you won’t or will tolerate - you have been doing it for hundreds of years.
But unless you, me and others realise that Scotland is not the subsidy junkie that they portray, but a functioning part of the Union which generates wealth for the UK through gas, oil, whisky, financial services to name but a few, the Union will break up.
I can accept independence if we go the way of Norway, but not as part of the EU.
We are a largely rural country, and that means that it costs more to provide basic services. Take Whisky and the places where it is produced, yes rural area’s that need a bit more money to keep services going while that industry generates billions for the Westminster Treasury - not Holyrood.
120- SBS- I think I am one of the few people here who actually likes Clegg. OK he may not be quite the UK’s version of Obama, but he comes across as a decent enough leader. He makes decisions, and quickly to boot.
124.That was me, not fitaloon.
I’ve been told that the Conservatives have had to add a sticker to every copy of the magazine they are distributing this weekend in Henley saying that it is from the Tories.
This follows David Cameron’s outburst on Friday about the Lib Dem magazine which was, apparantly, ‘an appalling Lib Dem tactic’.
The printed version of the Tory magazine didn’t say that it was from the Tories!
127 - ah, bless their little blue cotton socks!
123 - I see. I think some Tories in Henley may have that in the back of their mind.
The Tories may yet learn a lesson in candidate selection from this by election - being local helps, but not being a dud is a prerequisite. Their man will almost certainly win but will he achieve anything other than warming a significantly larger area of green bench than most of his fellow MPs? Contrast Timpson who probably has a bright future in front of him if he can retain Crewe (or even if he can’t no doubt he will be found somewhere better).
Is Ball’s hypocrisy on education inherited?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4187566.ece
I have seen plenty of black squirrels myself, but only in the us where they are common.
127 - Bit of a hassle just because the Great Leader has had one of his occasional temper tantrums. I thought he had his anger issues under control but it seems just because he hasn’t been under pressure.
124.Correction to last bit of post. Whisky generates billions of pounds with the Westminster treasury being a beneficiary rather than Holyrood. Sorry, but the steam was belching off the keyboard when I posted that after seant’s comment.
133 - Sales taxes generally go to the Treasury in the place where the sales are made. That is true for all product, worldwide.
Punter, your answer in part shows the problem which the Labour party has not faced up to and which Nationalists like Stuart Dickson is capitalising upon (and if I was a Nationalist and not a Tory I would do the same). Scotland is not a region of England. Sadly since Tony Blair opened this huge can of worms in 1997 there has been a huge growth in the number of Scots who hate the English and do so with a capital H. Clearly they are in the minority and deserve the same contempt as do people like Kelvin Mackenzie.
However I know few Scottish businessmen who run their own companies who are not now talking about Independence as an “if” question but as a “when” question.
As for little countries, I thought that in addition to Ireland, little countries include every EU member other than France, Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland. The Dutch, Belgians and people of Luxembourg have never worried about being small. If the EU doesn’t want Scotland within the EU then see what happens when Scotland becomes another Switzerland and offers off-shore banking to the world. Apart from oil and gas we have the Pentland Firth and once fully harnessed it can power Europe never mind Scotland or the UK as a whole.
This is one which will run and run.
127.
Most Tories think that winning elections is
“‘an appalling Lib Dem tactic’.”
it’s just not Conservative!
On the Politics Show Scotland, Labour’sNigel Griffiths has just said Alex Salmond should call for a Referendum on Independence.
Gordon Brown would never dare let that happen because he cant control the result.
Anyway enough from me. Im off to see my grandmother in hospital
133. Calm down Chris D - or is it fitaloon? Confused!
Anyway if you actually read my post rather than hyperventilating, you’ll see that I never claimed England subsidises Scotland - I deliberately ignored that complex argument (FWIW I am personally happy to see England subsidise Scotland, or vice versa, that’s what being in a Union and being a Unionist is all about - we’re all British!)
No, when I said Scotland gains from the UK Union, I meant Scotland gains politically - Scotland now runs many of her own affairs, yet she still has a major say in the UK government - to the extent that both the UK prime minister and the UK chancellor are Scottish, from Scottish constituencies, and so on and down the line. And this despite the fact that England has no say on many Scottish affairs.
This is an extremely favourable position for Scotland, politically (indeed it is so favourable it is questionable whether the English will always tolerate it). Scots would be mad to give this up. Which is my point.
If Scotland quits the UK then Scotland loses all that political leverage over English affairs. An indepedent Scotland, for instance, would still use the pound (until and unless s