Will Gord’s second year start with a lost deposit?
June 22nd, 2008
The money goes on a poor Henley performance
Given that this is the final Sunday before the Henley by election the only active market on Thursday’s outcome has been on whether Labour will lose its deposit. The chart shows the betting odds expressed as an implied probability.
The day started with the price at 1/2, then the market was suspended only to be re-opened an hour or so later at 2/5 and then to tighten further to 1/3 by the end of the afternoon.
The main Henley winner market has hardly moved.
So if punters have got this right then Gordon first anniversary at Number 10 next Friday will start with a lost deposit - meaning that the party’s vote share will fall below 5%. This would involve a massive drop on the 14.5% that was achieved at the 2005 general election.
There have been no polls at Henley and the market is being driven by experience of what has happened in other Tory-LD by-election contests over the years. The smallest Labour share was at Winchester in 1997 when it dropped to 1.7%.
Mike Smithson
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Gordon couldnt find his ar$se from his elbow. The only question is what comes after him. The sight of that preening, mincing idiot turning up in Saudi Arabia today was beyond parody
Oooh,I’m first for the first time! As the by-election is in Henley (a beatiful part of the country),with prevailing political climes,I do not feel too huge a hoo-hah could adultly be extracted from Labour losing their deposit
Sorry, this thread just went up as I was posting the below: it’s more on topic here anyway.
As it looked like such a perfect midsummer day (at least from inside) I decided to take a break from marking A levels and toured the Henley constituency this afternoon. Everything was gorgeous, with an unseasonal high wind just dappling the light further in this silvery leafy part of the Home Counties. It was hard to see why many people would not vote Conservative on Thursday, from Aston Rowant and Kingston Blount to Rotherfield Peppard.
Indeed, I found no evidence of election activity. As far as the posters, there were remarkably few for the Liberal Democrats, compared with the byelection tours I’ve made in their potential chances over the past thirty years or so. Not only were the fields and trees Tory, as usual, but I actually counted more for Howell than Kearney in houses too, with just one for Labour, in Thame. Unfortunately for my old friend Richard Heller (founder of the cricket club in which David Miliband used to play), whose creation ‘Harry Bear’ is standing for the Fur Play party - http://www.harrybearforparliament.org.uk/ - I doubt he’ll get 30 votes, and is likely to be trounced as the loony vote is split by his neighbour on the ballot, Bananaman.
This really is the super-affluent heartland of southern England, with the Rollers purring up to Garsington Manor for the opera and the signs in place for next weekend’s Henley regatta. I cannot see it being close, and although the majority inherited from Boris may well fall, on a lowish turnout, and there be a modest technical swing away, I must conclude: ‘Liberal Democrats Winning Here’? I very much doubt it.
I think the Tories will win with a majority of 5000, Labour will lose their deposit and come in with somewhere between 2.5% and 3% of the vote
Will the Saudi’s pledge to increwase production see oil drop on the markets tomorrow?
3. I’ve always expected a comfortable Tory win in Henley. We’re in very differant times from those when the Lib-Dems produced dramatic swings in hitherto rock solid Tory heartlands.
As far as Labour is concerned, I think they will lose thir deposit!
this is all very well but what about the squirrels?
the only good use for grey ones is pate - gamey but not too rich.
anybody who thinks conservationists are decadent because they don’t feel one species should be allowed to reduce the level of biodiversity even further is quite seriously disturbed as the end result will be an Earth with two animals, Humans and Dogs.
Not only Nick are you a victim of the most Disneyfied version of the pathetic fallacy but you are applying it to the most cunning evil creature to stalk the UK, a creature whose sneaky tactics and long range planning for getting at the bird table defy all countermeasures.
future pleas from Nick Palmer for reasoned argument
7 I am no expert on oil,but I thought the issue was the lack of refining capacity, not the amount of oil being produced.
7. It’s a bit of both I believe.
Henley is just the sort of seat in the South of England that Labour should withdraw from altogether.
Far better to let the Libdems have a free run in all of those Southern seats, where Labour is a poor third.
Its nothing more than vanity to continue to fight them, and a waste of time and money too.
The Tories should consider doing the same, in those seats were they stand no chance.
O/T - I have just tried to put a bet on the Republican VP nominee with Hills and been advised that my account has been closed. When I enquired as to why they said it was a decision of their ‘trading department’. When I pushed further and asked if it was because I had won too much from them, he said ‘thats normally the reason’. No further explaination and they did not even have the courtesy to write/email to tell me in the first place.
Anyone else been treated like this?
I didn’t directly comment on Mike’s deposit question, but it would not surprise me at all if Labour failed to reach 5%. They have done so in such situations before, including Newbury (when they won the next general election). There are no substantial blocs of Labour support in the Henley / S Oxfordshire seat, particularly since the Oxford fringe around Littlemore was removed: the overspill housing estate at Berinsfield is tiny, with a tiny turnout, and the council estate I found up the southern hill towards Greys in Henley was one of the poshest I’ve ever seen!
I don’t think it really matters politically in this case, except for those elements of the self-styled comentariat who are straining to find any stick to beat ‘Gordon’ with (as if there aren’t enough). Anyone who is intending extrapolations would find applying a C to LD technical swing just about as irrelevant.
10: all British bookies will do that eventually if you win repeatedly, beat line movements etc.
10. A chap I know received a letter from VChandler closing his account. He framed the letter for a bit of fun.
13: I’ve got some accounts where they won’t give me more than 15 pence on any bet now
10,12 Little wonder that Betfair has been so incredibly successful over the last few years. It may be somewhat lacking in innovation, but at least it won’t close you down.
14 Andrew - you’ve clearly been a very successful punter in your time!
1. The point is the timing could not be worse for Brown!
Not his fault but a huge terrorist attack on a nigerian oil pipeline followed by the disclosure that Isreal has recently had 100 F15 & F16 fighters training for a campaign to prevent Iranian nuclear weapons.
Think the oil price may well rise on Monday! In fact if i had the money………………
This makes Brown look an idoit if the market spikes again given his visit to Iran.
Isn’t it fascinating? When the Tory press thought the Tories stood a good chance of winning Crewe the polls came in droves to encourage Labour voters to give up and help the Tories squeeze the LD’s. Now the LD’s might be creeping up in Henley there is not a single poll! Indeed the only constituency polls have been in H&H. The bias of the British Press has never been more obvious.
Will labour get 0 VOTES in henley??
HEHEHE
9
Can’t agree with that at all. National political parties not only should but must contest every seat if they are to govern nationally - to not do so is to admit that your vision is limited to those that support you, that you are focussed entirely away from areas in which you are unpopular and to visibly abandon geographic sections of society.
what Labour should do is try to be at least competent, set out an actual, rather than theoretical, vision and then see what the verdict is. They will be damned of course but at least in standing against the tidal wave their end may have a hint of dignity.
18 Surely the press interest in C&N was on account of it being considered a contest, with the prospect of a surprise result.
Henley, where the Tories are 1/20 on to win, is not considered a contest and is not therefore particularly newsworthy.
20 for theoretical read capricious
18
perhaps the Press dont want to spend £20k each week getting pretty much the same result as the last one. What reason can you think of that might have made the polls move significantly????
Re. 11, and Romsey in 2000. You were right about Leek Town’s relegation from the Unibond Premier League!
16: that account was the result of my less experienced days - for some reason I didn’t consider that betting side markets on Greek 2nd division might mark me out as “non-recreational”……
Having said that, a lot of bookies are absolutely ragingly paranoid. Bet on anything that later attracts lots of money (ie value bets), and your account will be limited to nothing - I’ve even heard of this happening after literally one bet. Some of the rpoints crowd take particularly delight in getting limited asap (aka “gubbed”).
I echo Robert’s comments. I went shoe shopping with my children in Henley this afternoon. It looked lovely. Sure there are poor pockets in the constituency, but a disproportionate amount of it is as rich as things get. And it is not full of millionnaire socialists or liberals the way some places are. A few Tory posters in the villages. Farmers stacking up the stakeboards in the hedgerows. Nothing in the centre of Henley to suggest anything was happening.
Tories to win, a bit of a swing against them. Labour to do very very badly. The only red things I saw today were the red kites.
Dull game tonight. Spain still look like the favs…….. but Italy……
11. Will you be updating your tome before the next election to take account of intervening mid term election results Scotland/Wales/Locals Etc.
@26:
Um, we had a big team out in Henley today. Got the whole of Henley-actual leafletted, twice, in a day.
‘No action’, because we weren’t in the Town Centre? Pffft. Perhaps you expect us to just stand around the Town Centre in our top hats looking bored?
18. The reason there are no polls is because there’s no perceived chance of an upset and so no interest from the readers and no reason to pay for very expensive polling. There’s no bias, just business sense.
Having worked there a couple of times (including today) , I can see no evidence to believe in a Lib Dem will win. Indeed the article leading the front page of Friday’s Thame Gazette can hardly have helped and must reinforce Tory accusations about the nature of the Lib Dem campaign.
I’ve no doubt there’s lots of effort going in from the orange side and heaps and heaps of leaflets but I see nothing to tell me that the campaign has gained any real traction. In relative terms, there’s next to no LD posters and quite large numbers of Tory posters in small, modest back streets.
In short, my experience exactly mirrors that reported by Robert Waller at 3.
I may be wrong of course, but on the ground this by election feels quite unlike any where the LDs have pulled off a win.
OT - A very good each way bet tonight in the NASCAR race for those who might be interested,
Marcus Ambrose, currently 18/1 on Stan James.
Reasons: It’s a road course (ie there are corners which turn left AND there are corners that turn right) They only race on road courses twice in a year.
Ambrose is a former Australian V8 champion (the racing there is very intense in similar style cars)
He has qualified in 8th place, the highest Ford in the race despite it being his first race in this series.
They are offering each way on the first four.
29 - fair enough. Whole of Henley leafleted is impressive. Twice is very impressive. The town itself should be solid blue.
I have not done my sums but I think Henley has about 10% of the constituency population. Can anybody confirm?
18. what a sily post.
O/T Just a thought Andy Burnham Did Gordon get one of his speech writers to do the piece for him in the mag, to put him back in the box, as he had been named as one to watch in the Speccie
24, great to see you posting on here, Richard, reminds one of the old times!
28, thanks for your continuing interest in The Almanac of British Politics, Punter, but I fear it will not appear again, at least not in that form, since money was lost when my co-author made a mistake about an MP, whose threatened suit severely cost the publishers (and my co-author).
Now, back to wait for Italy beating Spain on penalties …
O/T
I’m fairly new to spread betting and so would like some advice. Would selling Hillary at 0.2 right now be considered a good value bet?
Surely Italy cannot blag this game……….they are woeful
The interesting thing about Lib Dem by-elections is that they rarely really hype one and then miss badly - Tottenham is the last I can remember getting really hyped as “we can win this” and then flopping completely. Plenty of times - Bromley, most recently - the party has come close after hyping the hell out, but I really don’t remember the hype for ones we might not win. Crewe, for example, we go the hint pretty clearly that if we could only do one this summer, we should go to Henley. Sure, that wasn’t made public, but why should it be?
I’ve been looking at the PB threads from the last week of September and the first week of October! What a long tme ago that seems to be now.
The cresendo of Labour triumphalism in the last days of September and particuarly on the day of Browns conference speech. The almost certain expectation that he was going to call an election for November 1st. The true heroism of the Tory conference and particularly Cameron’s speech. The post conference polls, culminating in Brown’s humiliating election climb-down on October 6th. The total collapse of Labour moral on that Saturday as they realised Brown had blinked in the face of Camerons triumphant conference.
Looking back now, its been down-hill all the way for Labour ever since. I think we can say that October 6th was Labour’s Black Saturday!
What an extraordinary time it was. I don’t expect to see anything quite like it again for many years.
30. Yes this is on the Lib Dem web site and as I said earlier shows them eating humble pie.
Me thinks they may be trying too hard, ( which could suggest they are not getting anywhere overall), I suppose to some on this site they are just “trying”!
I am not sure all the leaflets serves the same purpose it used to, the other parties do the same and have more resources to do it, particularly the mail shots and telephone canvassing. They may have to review some of their approach. Can be a danger of being stuck in a time warp.
Having said that shock result on Thursday LDs win by 17 votes, I wish!.
36. Oh my god! We’re in twilight zone territory here.
Spain have lost 3 times in penalty shoot-outs.
Belgium World Cup 1986, England(!) Euro 1996 and South Korea World Cup 2002.
OK, so Spain are rubbish at penalties - but the clincher is all three matches were on June 22nd!
42 its a poor game thats going to penalties………..
Read in the Telegraph a mention by Portcullis of tension between Clegg and Rennard over two issues: Clegg’s decision not to fight the H&H by election and the conduct of the Henley by election. I suspect there could be some truth behind it. Certainly the strategy at Henley seems strange with a campaign focusing on local issues fought with a candidate who has no links with the area. I don’t know whose idea it was to oust the former local candidate and replace her with an interloper, but it seems bizarre given the strategy. I can’t see Clegg going, but perhaps Rennard is about to have his wings clipped. If the LibDems get less than 35% of the poll with all the effort they have made and all the attention they have received, we might see some changes at LibDem HQ.
Luca Toni=Swiss Toni………..what an awful game
Henley voters are already fed up with the piles of leaflets. The result may force either the LDs or Conservatives back to the drawing board.
If the LDs fail to win or close the gap to a marginal, their by election tactics Vs the Conservatives will have to be completely revised.
Since they were unable to defeat Labour at Ealing and Sedgefield, their by election USP will be lost. Did Clegg really choose their candidate rather than Rennard? Or was it Lembit Opik who pushed him because Opik sits on Stephen Kearney’s Board?
36. Oh dear. I confess I saw nothing outrageous to my eye. I wouldn’t blame your co-author but the Lawyers of your Publishers. Its their job to spot anything that excites m learned friends. Excellent book though.
Was the incumbent LD PPC willing to fight the by-election? As candidate in Henley in a GE, there would be no chance of winning so post GE she could go back to her normal job. But in a by-election, had she won, she would have had to give up her job, though only for a couple of years. Did she actually want to run in the by-election?
As regards Clegg / Rennard tensions, I do not really know. I think Clegg is a very honest straightforward guy. Perhaps he wants politics cleaned up a bit and sees some of Rennard’s stuff as a bit underhand - though not as nasty as the Tories in Cheadle or Labour in Crewe.
On topic, I can’t see that losing a deposit in Henley would be tat bad for Labour, unless they already did something terminally stupid like appoint Gordon Brown unopposed… oh they did that!
Seriously, with a competent leader this would be no problem. As it is it will be viewed through the “Gordon Brown can do no right” prism and will look bad.
Re 5, Gin, “Will the Saudi’s pledge to increwase production see oil drop on the markets tomorrow?”
No. Trouble in Nigeria for a start and too much speculators cash in oil.
Re 10, Coldstone “The Tories should consider doing the same, in those seats were they stand no chance.”
No, we will not, as we can and do enlarge our base.
First Boris resignation :
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7468434.stm
I wonder if Rennard’s methods are the way to win by elections, nowadays. We’ll soon know. Boasting about how many tons of literature is delivered compared to the other parties seems out of keeping with party stressing its green credentials. Also, finding a possible flaw in an opponent and then making this a key part of the campaign can work both ways in this day of instant information retrieval and the rise of the blogs. Friday could be interesting.
SBS, even if the former PPC didn’t want to stand, wasn’t there anyone else locally. I live near Romsey and having a local candidate was very important in that by election. It reflects badly on the LibDems’ ability to attract talent if they could not find anyone locally.
48 Well Rennard could always do a job swap with Crosby and work down under if he comes back over here…..Seriously times are tougher for the LDs with a reviving Tory Party. To scapegoat Rennard would be monumental stupidity. The LDs are lucky to have him.
Re 51, JackW That looks like some journalist winding some one up for a story so that they could get a line to take completely out of context (though I could be wrong on that).
However that is no excuse for sticking your head in a noose and jumping off the wagon.
52 - yes, I think it is strange there was nobody local prepared to give it a go and risk winning. Previous winners in by-elections have depended on their localness from Ryedale, Ribble, Eastbourne, Newbury, Romsey etc.
By-elections have changed a lot recently for several reasons. The media don’t follow them (even the Henley Standard shows no real interest - though the Thame paper does), postal votes, the internet age, and the fact that the Tories bother with by-elections these days. Is Rennard still the man? Dunno. Jury’s out. Less than 30% in Henley would be disappointing. More than 40% very good.
51, 54 - may be the guy is no racist. But he’s an incompetent idiot and unfit for public office if he falls for that sort of trick from a journalist. What was his pay as an adviser?
44 do you have a link for that story? couldn’t find it on the Telegraph
55. I think as Wells has said you need to wait unless/until as in the 90’s mirroring the Tories there is one in an area where the Tories have no chance at all. If you fluff that then I think you can ask questions of Rennard. You didn’t after SE Staffs in the 90’s after all.
54/56 Benedict/SBS. Agreed.
Re 56, SBS “But he’s an incompetent idiot and unfit for public office if he falls for that sort of trick from a journalist. What was his pay as an adviser?”
I thought the way I suggested he had hanged himself broadly indicated agreement with that line?
Test at 57, See here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/2171298/Portcullis-A-fall-out-at-Lib-Dem-HQ.html
60 - I hadn’t read the story; I only said maybe he wasn’t racist. He may well be.
To paraphrase a saying: “Better to keep your mouth shut and have everybody assume you’re a racist than to open it and remove all doubt…”
51 blunt speaking aussie upsets no-one race shocker. I would say this is Boris’ first mistake. Just because some studenty journo gives an employee a Darcus Howe quote - probably incorrectly - and the employee gives him a blunt Aussie response it seems OTT to throw away a key advisor.
I think Boris could recover himself by appointing Darcus Howe to a new commission on Chippiness; Task Force Howe would be a place where all those with an inchoate rage at the failure of the world to comply with their personal weltanschau could make their case.
Darcus could then give them a good telling off and at the same time remind them how great he is, and how only he speaks for people with West Indian backgrounds and then finishing up by pointing out that whatever made them angry was nothing to all the things that make him very cross indeed.
Re 61, SBS “I hadn’t read the story; I only said maybe he wasn’t racist. He may well be.
To paraphrase a saying: “Better to keep your mouth shut and have everybody assume you’re a racist than to open it and remove all doubt…””
Well, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt in much the same way as I did Patrick Mercer (See here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/03/in-defence-of-patrick-mercer.html)
You have to wonder if a full transcript/recording of the interview is available.
42. The BBC just replaying them. Looks like it’s going to be a fourth exit on penalties for Spain, unfortunately for them (and for those of us who’ve just spent the last two hours watching a goalless draw)!
63 Benedict, Iain Dale isnt happy with Boris.
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
61 Quote (Hattip Iain Dale)
“I pointed out to him a critical comment of Voice columnist Darcus Howe that the election of “Boris Johnson, a right-wing Conservative, might just trigger off a mass exodus of older Caribbean migrants back to our homelands”. He retorted: “Well, let them go if they don’t like it here.” McGrath dismissed influential race commentator Howe as ‘shrill’.”
Sounds much like a number of us said about the Guardian writers who claimed they would leave London if Boris won.
Spain save one!
“Labour will lose their deposit in Henley….
by RodCrosby May 12th, 2008 at 6:44 pm ”
in to 1/3 now…
67. So do Italy!
A couple of points.
1. The reason Rennard is a master at By Elections is that he doesn’t cry wolf. If they thought they were going to win Henley then activists would be being given all the classic nods and winks to come and help. We aren’t which says it all.
2. The sitting PPC did apply and wasn’t short listed. She made less than help press comments about it.
3. The candidate choice has sank this campaign. I remember vividly how the “not local” tag stuck to Jodie Dunn in hartlepool when she lived all of 14 miles away. At leats she had several moths to campaign and moved into the seat the monday after her selection. How you put up a candidate in oxfordshire who stood in plymouth (and lost) only 3 weeks previously god alone knows.
4. My reading is that party members back Clegg over H and H by 2 to 1. But the 1 really are appalled by the decision. Clegg has spent political capital he doesn’t have on this. If, and it is a big if, Davis and the Tories are canonised by the by election as defenders of civil liberties then he is going to be badly damaged.
5. Any leader who needlessly falls out with Rennard is an idiot. Rennard knows where every body is burried for the last 30 years because he buried them. he has the best contacts book in the party and with a seat in the Lords an independent power base.
so do Italy
71,
Spain save another!
Spain win
Spain through
Justice done…. the dour, depressing, talentless Italians are out. Go Spain!
Re 65, Maggie Thatcher fan, I am not sure I can agree with Iain here.
The terms of the quote are an ace to be thrown back in your face. You need to be very very careful what you say to journalists with an axe.
Re 66, Ted, thanks for the quote.
I saw the news on five and I think Brown fruitlessly Toadying up to the Saudi’s whilst the Chinese look on, just about sums the man up. He has no principles whatsoever and his whole belief system is based on appeasing and debasing himself to whoever has the money. He really is a vile creature and is rightly the least popular Prime Minister of all time.
77 Martin Day is wrong…… Brown is Kinnock… to the power 2!
76 I disagree completely Benedict - Arabella Weir promised to leave London - many people prayed it would be so but she’s still there, because London is a great city. This journo took a typical Darcus Howe comment and mcgrath gave a typical aussie answer to a stupid provocation.
Now a British person might well have responded differently, along the lines of ‘we would hate to lose important members of our community because of malicious untruths put about by Livingstone and his supporters’ but I would say that’s actually a cringing resposne instead of an honest one.
London is a fantastic place, it was under Livingstone, it is under Johnson and will be under the next mayor - because it is a world city. Boris should be confident enough to make the case that blunt speaking isn’t polite and isn’t always right but it doesn’t mean someone should lose their job.
37. No! Your risk is huge. The value was when she was offered at around 5 and more on the 0-10-25 index. I can’t see any value on the American President spreads at the moment. Better to sell Labour seats here, I would say - the polls indicate a very large majority, the spreads a majority of less than 40 - now that’s value!
I think Boris is right to “let go” this advisor. If someone can be that stupid in the language they use, then frankly it makes me wonder what sort of advice they are giving in the first place? Is it value for money?
In any case, by acting so quickly Boris has made sure they whole thing can’t get out of hand and become a distraction. Well done, BoJo.
68. Not all your predictions are so successful though Rod. On reviewing the PB threads from last autumn, I notice you was one of the leading voices in saying that Brown would call an autumn election…
Your man let you down, didn’t he? :DE
BTW, My take on why Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out of the Zimbabwe election.
He would have been resoundingly beaten.
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/2008/06/morgan-tsvangirai-quits-race-to-avoid.html
Re 79, Kingbongo “London is a fantastic place, it was under Livingstone, it is under Johnson and will be under the next mayor - because it is a world city. Boris should be confident enough to make the case that blunt speaking isn’t polite and isn’t always right but it doesn’t mean someone should lose their job.”
The problem is that had Boris been Labour it could have been brushed off. People are far more prepared to believe we are racist regardless of the evidence so the issue is toxic.
82. I certainly thought he ought to, but a few days before he “bottled” it I got the feeling he wouldn’t actually do so, and expressed as much.
82. Any you still predicting AV for the next GE?
It always seemed inconceivable to me and given the extremely limited time now available it now also appears totally impossible.
79. London is a crime infested cess pit, you are welcome to it.
75- kas- at least the Italians got to the quarters and are world champions. Not bad for being talentless.
83 I think this time, as before, Morgan has made a mistake. Politically he has let Mugabe off the hook and betrayed those who have taken their beatings waiting for the chance to vote against Zanu-PF. Their is a point in which a struggle for freedom means taking the risks, the MDC is non-violent and the costs in life and misery must weigh heavily on Morgan and the leaderships minds but a stolen election, stolen in full glare of African and world opinion, damned by the African observers, would have IMHO resulted in South Africa and Mugabe’s friends deciding he was too dangerous to support any longer.
Now the best that Zimbabwe can hope for is a Zanu-PF led “government of national unity” with the same corrupt and murderous thugs still in power. A revolution was needed, a non violent one from the MDC’s side, though at a dreadful cost.
86. Sorry if unclear - 86 refers to Rod, not GIN.
85. I was always certain he wouldn’t go for it…. Until the final week or so, when even I got sucked into the hyp and thought he would. What a weird time all that was!
Incidentally, anybidy know what happened to user grumpyoldman?
82 Looked through the threads as well. There is one post from Evesham Woman just after Osborne’s speech
“That was an excellent vote winning speech by George Osborne and it went down extremely well at the conference. The Labour supporters on TV looked sick afterwards.
The polls will have turned round by the weekend and Brown will be having second thoughts about an election.”
She was right whereas Redflump’s response to her ….
“Yeah, and there goes a pig flying by my window!
Gordon has nothing to fear from the Tories. I say - hold on till May 2008 Gordon. Let them stew.”
Oh for there to have been a general election in May 2008.
89. Agreed. I think he should have continued to the bitter end. Even if that meant much blood shed and ultimately defeat or even his own death. In the end, democracy can only win if people are willing to fight for it - At any cost if thats what it takes!
However, its easy for us to sit here in the UK and give our views from thousands of miles of safety. Its quite another to actually face Mugabe’s thugs and the tyranny he has unleashed on poor Zimbabwee. If we lived it, maybe our perspectives would be differant?
92 “Oh for there to have been a general election in May 2008″.
Ted- you will have your day in the sun soon, and the taste will be so much sweeter
92. Oooooo theres some fantastic choice quotes from that period from so many people. Nick P was going for a Labour landslide at one point!
However, hindsights a wonderful thing, so I’m not going to be too nit-pickey about it!
95. it is possible however in twelve months time we will be looking at the posting from Conservative supporters assuming a landslide victory now, but Labour being 10 points ahead….
A ‘whatever time period fits the argument’ is a long time in politics….
96. Could be! The economy will have to improve rapidly for that to happen, but I suppose you never know….
Who gives a flying fcuk who wins Henley?
I want to know what is happening to bendy-buses now that the Fop is mayor! That’s what you call a major issue.
Off to the south of France on Tuesday so no posting for 5 or 6 weeks; how will I know what is happening in the world? We have no TV, no radio, no internet, no newspapers.
Not bothered; all those evil politicians can do their worst and we’ll soak up the sun and dip in the Med. It’ll still all be here when we get back and Brownstuff will still be evil and Pretty Boy will still be saying nothing of substance, and DD will still be an MP, and the Tories [LibDem faction] will still be irrelevant.
Same old, same old.
Have fun guys and I’ll see you briefly in August, or possibly the last couple of days in July. As if most of you care.
Love and Best Wishes
Malcolm
Enjoy it Malc.
93 In the UK, safe and sound it is easy to say “fight on” where those you are urging may will die or suffer horribly. Agreed.
But my cousins, my uncles, my grandfathers did fight, did face death, some did die for freedom, people do and through their sacrifice democracy is won, eventually, sometimes. Mugabe survives on a national myth of Zanu-PF as liberators, but more have died because of him. He and his regime, where youth and so called war veteran groups chop off people hands and arms, tear out their tongues, blind, rape, torture, burn alive and otherwise murder needs to be washed away, sometimes leadership means accepting the cost of that cleansing.
Serious opposition is formenting against Sam Nunn being Obama’s VP pick among prominent gay Democrats. The Georgian has a terrible record on equal rights for homosexuals, and it could come back to haunt him.
93. The problem is that if they had stayed in, the election would have been stolen, Mbeki would have deplored “irregularities from both sides” - in his phone call to Mugabe to congratulate him on winning, and a large number of MDC supporters would have ended up dead.
MDC is determined not to kick off a civil war - they know what the probable result will be. The problem is that in the end that is what it will take, and they know it.
Re 89, Ted, “I think this time, as before, Morgan has made a mistake. Politically he has let Mugabe off the hook and betrayed those who have taken their beatings waiting for the chance to vote against Zanu-PF. Their is a point in which a struggle for freedom means taking the risks, the MDC is non-violent and the costs in life and misery must weigh heavily on Morgan and the leaderships minds but a stolen election, stolen in full glare of African and world opinion, damned by the African observers, would have IMHO resulted in South Africa and Mugabe’s friends deciding he was too dangerous to support any longer.”
I would agree with you, but it is very easy to oppose Mugabe from here as well as run Morgan’s campaign from here.
After all it is not our wives who have been kidnapped and burnt alive.
re 91, GIN “I was always certain he wouldn’t go for it…. Until the final week or so, when even I got sucked into the hyp and thought he would. What a weird time all that was!”
I was the same!
I think Grumpyoldman was coldstone and is now coldstone.
Re 98, Malc, enjoy your holiday
‘After all it is not our wives who have been kidnapped and burnt alive.’
Exactly.
Apparently Brown avoided orange blob airways and flew French to Saudi.
Now what does that say to the Saudis about the UK and our technology and its use?
104. “I think Grumpyoldman was coldstone and is now coldstone.”
Oh right, thanks Benedict.
101. ‘equal rights’ is always a loaded term….
70 - has to be the least informed post ever made on this site (and I include those made by Martin Day).
106 Recognise its too easy from safety but the husbands of those women were still campaigning afterwards, willingly endangering themselves. To retreat, again, betrays that suffering. Those people are heroes. I’m not, but I still think the MDC failed today.
110 - Why?
Re 112, Morus, please do not forget to get your friend to email me. I need info on getting out of or around smoking bans!
Re 111, Ted, Well your point is noted but I could only make that decision on the ground or indeed criticise it from there.
110. Dan you need to get over the fact that the LD’s are not the golden panicer you believe them to be. I cannot understand how LD’s are so sensitive to anything other than good news or positive comments about them particularly given the LD’s history in being less than genrerous to there opponents.
Noticed vcbet are offering 10/3 on Labour getting over 270 seats.
That seems incredible value to me, when compared with the odds on majorities of Labour overall majority 2-1 and NOM of 4-1
With the vcbet, you are effectively getting both of these at 10/3. To put it another way, if Labour don’t get 270 seats there will be a Tory majority which you could back at 4/6 and arb.
Am I missing something here ?
113 - I won’t Benedict - he’s in France for a while, but he’ll get an email on his return!
Re 117, Morus. Ah, umm.. I was after tapping him for names of lawyers who can get around smoking regs for my local before they do building work!
112 - well…
Yellow submarine’s first point is wrong - activists are being strongly encouraged to go there.
The Lib Dem candidate choice has not ’sunk the campaign’ - given that the previous two MPs weren’t exactly local - Kearney fits the character profile rather better than a dull but worthy local councillor. It it the Tory candidate choice that is the issue - many Boris voters are thinking twice this time.
Those members who think H&H should have been contested quite understand why Clegg made the call he did - there would be no by-election if the Lib Dems had refused to stand down - which rather gives the lie to Davis’s ‘principled’ stand. Given the farce the by-election is descending into there is little chance of Davis coming out of it as defender of civil liberties - he’s far more likely to be seen as defender of his ego.
There is no split between Rennard and Clegg - Rennard is a loyalists who would find Yellow Submarines description ludicrous.
The only thing that was clear about post 70 is that ‘Yellow Submarine’ is no Lib Dem member - he’s just another witless Tory imposter.
119
Enjoy fantasy land!
116 - If you bet twice as much on the 4/6 Tory majority as on the 10/3 on Labour getting over 270 seats, that is a great near-arb
(I only say near-arb, because in theory Labour could get below 270 and a party other than the Tories could win an overall majority - so splitting your money 33% on the 10/3, 66% on the 4/6, and 1% on the 150/1 other party majority would be perfect: £100 would return £50 profit if LDs won, £10 profit if the Tories won, and £10 if Labour or NOM won).
Great spot.
119. Kearney is not in the league of Heseltine or Johnson!
Kearney is a middle aged technicrat, where as both Heseltine and Johnson were established in the fields of either politics or journalism. Remember Heseltine had been the MP for Tavistock before he took the Henley birth on tavistocks abolision. Johnson had been a high profile journalist and i think *entertainer* on various news shows.
If the LD’s had been serious about a high profile import to fight Henley they could have done a lot worse than Brian Paddick. This Kearney bloke is an non-entity, has he even run for office as a Cllr?
Dan i think you are pretty rude in your put downs, your propensity to talk bollocks has no bounds!
120 - and of course you know better?
119 - I’m not a Lib Dem, and wouldn’t pretend to be informed as to the inner workings, but I don’t think Yellow Submarine’s post is so out of line - most of it seems very plausible.
It would be perfectly normal that a large number of LDs would be upset that the party isn’t fighting a by-election, and could be seen as supporting the Tories. I don’t know about number, but YS says a third, and I’d be surprised if it was less than that, in any party.
The only thing I know about the LD candidate in Henley is that he doesn’t live there and didn’t really live in Plymouth either. Given how C&N worked out, I’d have thought the party would be thinking about ways of not displacing PPCs who know the area, have worked the constituency, and have local support. You could bring in Gladstone and it would cause some damaging friction, and let’s be honest, these higher tier candidates haven’t exactly been Gladstone if C&N was anything to go by.
I don’t know if there is a split between Rennard and Clegg or not, but I know whose exit would most benefit the party, and it is not Rennard.
122 - Brian Paddick wrote a pretty damning diary for the Mail on Sunday about being a Lib Dem candidate - he gave a Shermanesque assurance that he would never run for them again. The passage on Clegg in particular was pretty cruel.
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/femail/article-565425/Brian-Paddicks-hilarious-diary-reveals-farcical-truth-failed-bid-beat-Boris-Red-Wine-Ken-London-Mayor.html
I thought the reaction to Burnham’s comments went too far but the McGrath business is way OTT. Just read Iain Dale’s comments - ouch. Was it Boris’s decision though? At this rate the standard answer to questions from journalist’s will be “no comment”. It could even spread to PMQs.
125. Clegg seems badly organised by the sound of it - not a genial host at all! Pretty amused that he spoke with his mouth full - the picture of Clegg is starting to smack of arrogance with a hint of nacissim!
119.”The only thing that was clear about post 70 is that ‘Yellow Submarine’ is no Lib Dem member - he’s just another witless Tory imposter.”
Complete rubbish, Yellow submarine has been posting on here for a while! He/she writes interesting posts that definitely indicate that the yellow in their name is their party colour. Also happens to be one of the nicest Libdem posters on here too. This is a grown up political site, and just because this poster tells it as they see it rather than putting it through a Libdem spin cycle they are decried as a Tory imposter.
121
Well it’s not exactly astro physics that going with a non local candidate is a no no in a by-election,and that Rennard is past his ’sell by date’,the nonsense the other evening about some major announcement that ended up being trivia illustrates this point.
128. The LD’s have a problem in that a Steam Roller called the Tory party is heading straight for them and the LD’s will get crushed by said steam roller. Like the boy who cried wolf too often i do not believe LD posters who predict a good LD result in Henley. After the Newssheet scam the other day - LD’s are just a joke and show there volunrability by not being able to debate any possible systemic failure of there party at the next general election. Should Clegg get crushed as well as the almost guarenteed crushing of Huhne - I am sure even a defeated Labour party would not morn the passing of the dead bird!!!
Is someone there?
131. Yes!
131-Nice to see someone up until now!!! So what can we talk?
Re Boris Johnson’s sacking of his political advisor James McGrath. I know it’s from The Guardian but
“Johnson consulted David Cameron, the Tory leader, on the issue.”
and
“The sacking last night represented a rapid U-turn by Johnson’s camp - which at first had maintained that McGrath had done nothing wrong when his remarks were set in the context of hostile questioning from Wadsworth.”
134. I don’t think he deserved to be sacked.
But Cameron has, as usual, done the right thing. He has to play a low risk game and it’s therefore best to get the issue over and done with and out of the headlines.
110. I am not a Tory Troll. I have devoted perhaps too much of my adult life to the Liberal Democrats because, however imperfect, they are the carriers of the flame of elected liberalism.
However Parties should never be religious cults and I have an intrisic respect for any person who gets off their fat arse and gets involved in the system to fight for what they believe in. The little old lady with a blue rosstte I telled with on 1st of May 1997. The decent Labour councillor is the ward next to mine trying to hang on on local issues. The LD activists who fough Langbaugh in a by election in the early 1990’s when from the door step Labour had aquired the anti Labour franchise.
If I’m not tribalist enough for you then I am sorry however what makes this site as entertaining and informative as it is is the cut and thrust.
As for my post at 70 having re read it i think its fair comment, nothing more and nothing less. As for Rennard, I don’t know if the fairly persistant and long standing rumours of a rift with Clegg are true. I just repeat my point that a leader who needlessly falls out with him is an idiot. There were sound reasons for promoting him from Director of Campaigns to Chief Executive. Scapegoating him now because the political tide has turned in the same parliament that we have removed two leaders would set off a tail spin that we will not recover from.
Today I suddenly realised that I haven’t looked up Henley in my copy of The Almanac of British Politics (6th ed.). The last paragraph says
“Labour are almost completely eliminated as a force in the Henley division now, and the pockets of Liberal Democrat strength should continue to ensure a second place for them. Henley looks like one of the few Conservative seats which may be considered safe even in by-election circumstances.”
(Bold added)
Ha ha ha!
A lot has been written about the betting on whether Labour will lose its deposit in Henley; are there also odds on whether Labour will come 3rd? 4th? 5th? etc.
On Henley, I wonder whether the Labour vote might be just jaw-droppingly bad (say, 1% or less?).
On the LibDem side, I’m guessing that the result will have at the very least an appearance of being good (e.g. a 10-15% swing from the Tories) but:
(a) the Tories will win the seat
(b) everyone will forget the whole thing within 24 hours or so
(c) there doesn’t seem to be any major, defining issue at stake and
(d) the LibDems really do need to decide whether this sort of thing is a good use of c. £100,000and vast, vast amounts of volunteer time
101-The Georgian has a terrible record on equal rights for homosexuals, and it could come back to haunt him.
He votes in favour?
70 That is a very informative post. Thanks.
I think Clegg’s decision was the right one and I can imagine some of the 2 out of 3 who support it would have been very cross if he’d gone the other way.
My guess is that the Tories won’t be ‘canonised’ [though I expect a modestly increased civil liberty cred] and it will blow over.
Just realised I am on the wrong thread. Opps
70/136 I think you make some fair comments.
All the information I have suggests that Rennard sees Clegg as a major step forward for the party after the Kennedy/Campbell period.
If there is any sort of rift they’re hiding it well.
139 That’s a fair point. Of course quite a lot of extra one off money comes in when there’s a by-election too.
130 This would be the newsheet that Cameron criticised for looking like a non-party magazine?
I was amused to see a Tory magazine being delivered over the weekend complete with a sticker which had been added to the front saying that it was from the Tories!
Bet Tory helpers enjoyed having to stick those on;-)
re 124
Just to correct something which is drifting into the realms of “accepted truth” just because it keeps being said !!!
The Lib Dems in Crewe & Nantwich did NOT drop a local ppc, with a record of fighting for the area, local support etc and replace that person with an “outsider”.
The GE ppc had been selected only last autumn - had done very little campaigning in the area - AND WAS NOT LOCAL (he lived in Buxton, Derbyshire).
He applied to be the byelection candidate, but was unsuccessful. His replacement lived significantly closer to the constituency.
End of story.
I know. I was there!
I actually think the Tories had the best candidate in C and N but I have to say that the Libdems have the best candidate in Henley - and by a mile ! The problem is the Tories did not win Cand N because of Timson - although it helped - they won because of the unpopularity of New Lab and Brown - I wonder if the good people of Henley will realise that browns candidate is a no hoper and then vote for the best candidate - I hope so - our much lamented political system requires it!