Is V-P gambling a mugs game?
June 23rd, 2008
Why there’ll be no more bets on this by me
With most political betting I like to feel that for most of the time I’m ahead of the game and that if I call an outcome wrongly then I’ll be quick enough to recognise it and get out smartly at minimal cost.
The area that completely foxes me is what will be the big betting area in the next couple of months - who will be Barack Obama’s and John McCain’s running mates for the US presidential election on November 5th. For unlike most political outcomes these are down to, in each case, the decision of one man - and one man alone.
And there’s no way of even limiting the list of potential runners. They can be anybody provided they satisfy the US constitutional requirements on nationality and place of birth. So if we started to get reports that a non-politician, say Oprah Winfrey or Tiger Woods, were being considered by Obama they would soon go on the lists produced by the bookies.
Before you jump in just read what Obama said on the subject earlier in the month: “..next time you hear from me about the vice presidential selection process will be when I have selected a vice president. And if you hear, you know, secondhand accounts, rumors, gossip about the selection process, you can take it from me that it is wrong because we’re not going to be talking about it in the press.”
There are currently 34 possibilities for the Democratic choice listed by UK bookmakers and I have had a dabble on five of them. First I thought that party pressure on Obama would cause him to choose Hillary; then I was quite persuaded by John Edwards, Jim Steve Webb looked interesting and I’ve money on him; and finally I became convinced that he would choose a woman and backed Kathleen Sebelius and Janet Napolitano.
One of these might still be there and I’m a net winner, but not for very much, if its Edwards, Sebelius or Napolitano. I’ve reduced my Hillary exposure to zero but that has been at a cost.
So far I’ve not been tempted by the GOP V-P market where the list of runners is almost as long but without the clear favourites of the Democratic list.
Without highly specific reliable information betting on this is a mug’s game. Stay away.
Mike Smithson
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Couldn’t agree more. There are too many variables - unite the party (Hillary, Huckabee, Romney), try to carry a certain state (Strickland, Rendell, Romney[MI]), balance the ticket (Strickland or Rendell or Pawlenty for age) etc etc etc
Ultimately everyone seems to agree it doesn’t matter much unless you pick stupidly or the state really does become crucial so it does boil down to the gut feeling of one man.
It ends up like the national lottery - gambling, not betting.
ot. I notice Sir Simon Milton from the LGA and Shami from Liberty are leading the news on a call not to over use RIPA powers. I can’t belive this would be leading national BBC news without the DD detonation.
Last choices:
-2004: Edwards, would have been favourite after strong primary run
-2000: Cheney, Lieberman: surprises
-1996: Kemp: who?
-1992: Gore: surprise to have two “centrist” southerners on ticket
-1988: Quayle: surprise. Who did Dukakis have?
-1984: Ferraro: why was it not Hart?
-1980: Bush: read Edwards above
So all in all, at least one if not both sides will pick, if not an obscure, not the necesarily obvious choice.
Funnily enough with the exception of (possibly) Gore 1992 none really brought new states onto the table.
Mike, It’s Jim Webb rather than Steve Webb, can’t help thinking that Steve Webb would be rather taken aback to be plucked from Northhavon to run as US VP
On the subject of Webb there was an interesting article about his potential sutibility in the Economist last week.
3 Dukakis had Senator Lloyd Bentsen from Texas. Clearly trying to balance the ticket geographically as Dukakis was Governor of Massachusetts.
It was Bentsen who uttetred the famous ” Senator, you are no Jack Kennedy” line. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senator%2C_you%27re_no_Jack_Kennedy
5-remembered straight after posting!! ))
In any case, seems Dukakis 1988 was last time a balanced ticket was tried. Did not work.
Morning - Yesterday in Thame (and Henley) Very good numbers of volunteers at Lib Dem HQ - during the week as well as Sat and Sun. Delivered addressed letters - The most common reaction from most of the few people I met begged for no more paper - but given a turnout of less than 50% I assume they are either non voters or Conservatives anyway. Then in the afternoon canvassing in Chinnor - Not sure we will win but very good response - particularly to our candidate compared to the Conservative -interesting no-one mentioned where he came from - Perhaps in Chinnor, Henley is not local! In fact one resident complained that Heseltine never came near the place!
Labour vote non existent (a couple of former Labour voters may not vote against them but weren’t going to vote Labour), still quite a few genuinely undecided - I know, I know they are probably only being polite - but there is really no great enthusiasm for the Conservatives - people don’t know what they would do!
For some reason I was slightly reluctant to go canvassing - but in fact really enjoyed it, almost everyone, even confirmed Conservative voters were very friendly and in general had given serious thought to how they would vote.
Still stick to my 40% Lib Dem vote which would be good progress, shame it isn’t a longer campaign - tide is clearly running Stephen Kearney’s way.
My Democratic VP betting strategy
Because I think that the Democratic Party will win the Presidential Election, I trade more on the “Next Vice President” market than on the ” Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate” one.
On the last market, I bought for $272.08 of Hillary Clinton at an average of 5.66.
And I laid $577.03 of Clinton at an average of 3.68.
I also bought:
Jim Webb 7.46 $30.70
Bill Richardson 6.8 $12.00
Mark Warner 18.52 $8.18
Ted Strickland 10.1 $11.00
Sam Nunn 36 $3.99
Brian Schweitzer 50 $3.95
Barack Obama 7 $11.36
– and laid:
Jim Webb 5.57 $149.54 $683.47
Kathleen Sebelius 8.69 $68.48 $526.47
Bill Richardson 7.85 $86.71 $594.10
Al Gore 18.39 $30.41 $528.97
Evan Bayh 23 $23.50 $517.00
John Edwards 18.07 $34.57 $590.08
Brian Schweitzer 26 $7.74 $193.50
—
So I’m green for everybody.
If say, Wesley Clark is chosen, I make 624$ profit (minus 5%).
This potential profit gives me some room to take position on long shots on the “Next Vice President” market:
I bought:
Jim Webb 10.33 $157.96 $1,473.27
Kathleen Sebelius 12.03 $103.86 $1,145.38
Bill Richardson 13.89 $57.28 $738.11
Hillary Clinton 6.69 $140.80 $801.63
Evan Bayh 42.79 $9.90 $413.70
Brian Schweitzer 70.73 $26.95 $1,879.30
Joseph Biden 32.36 $11.00 $345.00
Christopher Dodd 115.51 $49.00 $5,611.20
Mark Warner 22.73 $41.20 $895.41
Sam Nunn 47.83 $27.00 $1,264.48
Tim Kaine 16.5 $25.47 $394.79
And laid:
Jim Webb 8.68 $170.61 $1,309.86
Kathleen Sebelius 10.38 $127.50 $1,196.19
Bill Richardson 15.65 $10.60 $155.30
Hillary Clinton 4.2 $250.84 $801.59
——-
7 Icarus, a common theme in the reports from Henley is that the voters have had enough of the paperwork. It is switching voters off.
It is also clear that the LDs have delivered more than the Conservatives because they started earlier.
The LDs have also thrown everything at Henley and if they fail to win or get close as in within 5% of the Conservatives, will represent a big setback as it will be 8 years since they last won a Conservative seat at a by election and maybe 8 more before it next happens. The Rennard strategy of focusing most resources on by elections will have to be reviewed.
A lot of activist goodwill has been expended by the LDs on Henley, failure will hurt.
8
I am currently laying Richardson at 18.5 for 27.09$.
—-
Criterium:
–Obama will not choose a woman
–It won’t be Richardson, or Webb, or Strickland.
—
The McCain ticket is almost impossible to call.
I don’t think Jindal will be on it.
But I do think it’s gonna be a woman.
I agree with Mike and with Scott at [1]. It’s an extremely difficult market to read and is more-or-less guesswork.
Any of these markets where the outcome is close to being purely the decision of one man has too much uncertainty in it for me. (That qualification is because at least on the Democrats’ side, the VP slot is technically the decision of the convention, and Obama doesn’t have an outright majority of pledged delegates, though that shouldn’t matter for practical purposes unless Hillary wants to play silly, which it’s not in her interests to do).
There are so many competing factors at play to recommend different candidates that the number of serious players in the game is huge compared to a normal political market. Even worse, there’s no guarentee that any of the names currently listed will be the final choice. Best of luck to those who fancy having a go.
I hesitate before advising anyone on the intricacies of political betting, but it strikes me that the VP market is not really political betting at al – it is wagering on the outcome of the personal choice made by a particular individual. It has more to do with betting on whether Gordon Brown will wear a blue tie or a red tie rather than on the outcome of the New Hampshire Primaries or whatever. Consequently, I think this market should be avoided.
Remember the money lost in betting on whether Brown would or would not call an election? It’s a similar problem.
TC [9]. At Bromley - considered an excellent Lib Dem result - vote share went from 20% to 38% (the Labour vote collapsed from 22% to 7%). The Conservative vote dropped to 40% partly because Nigel Farage got 8% - dont think UKIP will get 8% in Henley.
An increased vote share from 26% to 35 - 40% would be excellent progress given that there is a smaller labour vote to be squeezed.
But it may get better. Already this morning have had an enthusiastic (boasting of more than 400 helpers over the weekend) email asking for help in the last few days.
Quite a lot of coverage of Boris sacking an advisor, for a racially sensitive remark.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4193629.ece
PC or not PC that is the question.
13. Well as TC points out and given how well it is going from your perspective and how much resource is being thrown at it, anything less than 40% would appear like a disaster.
Still have absolutely no idea why Conservative voters who were prepared to stick with the Tories through the dark years would suddenley decide now was the time to switch to the Grim Bottler’s poodles.
The bast*rds as Ladbrokes have stopped me betting on Labour losing its deposit. Even though the price has tightened to 1/3 I still consider it to be good value - you try, but they won’t let me bet.
On one of yesterday’s threads someone asked when was the last occasion that the Lib Dems seriously hyped a by election gain but did not even come close? Someone else replied: Twickenham. (? i think)
In my opinion the correct answer is the Moray by election in 2006. They trailed in 3rd, after outrageous boosting how they were going to win it. Their vote in Moray collapsed in 2007.
I suspect that a similar fate awaits them in Henley: profound disappointment, followed by scythings at the subsequent polls.
Paddy Power would have paid out on such a certainty already!
16. They stopped me too.
yellow sub @ 2…………there was some email chat last week in my inbox about Simon Milton’s views on RIPA use. Some might be interested that in Poole (Tory controlled) three months were spent “spying on a family to see if they lived in the school catchment area”. The non-authoritarian group (LibDems for those not up to speed) on the LGA were not happy that the position was weak and apologetic.
It may be that you are correct in that it has taken a person such as DD, with his known record, to shake the country out of the slumber of drifting further towards 1984.
……….and now off to the really important issue of the day: listening to why cyclists should get off their bikes and walk through Ambleside, or not.
15 As in Bromley its all about the GOTV. In the Mayoral election and C&N the Tories got their vote out and won. In Bromley and Chiselhurst in absolute votes the Conservatives only got 11,600 out compared to double that (23,600) in the previous general election, Liberal Democrats increased their votes by 1,600 but that was enough to take them to second place and to nearly take the seat. Lets see if Mr Grayling can enthuse his activists and through them the Conservative support - London & C&N proved voters would turn out against Labour, will they in a “safe” constituency against the Lib Dems?
As I have posted on here before I used to live in Henley and grew up in the area and I will be utterly astonished in the Lib Dems get anywhere near 40% even if the turnout is derisory.
I was amazed that they told supporters to target Henley at all, let alone putting it ahead of C&N, and I remain convinced that their result will disappoint a large number of LD’s, possibly why Clegg has started to distance himself from Rennard.
I think that Lib Dem posters are seriously under-estimating the determination amongst Conservatives - perhaps this is because I don’t think Conservatives have been as determined to vote as this since the early Thatcher years.
If the Lib Dems improve on their vote share from 2005 at all I think they will be very lucky.
Hang on Stuart I have not said we will win Henley and I don’t think “we are trying hard” is the same as “hyped a by election gain”.
The Lib Dem vote share will show a good increase in Henley. The question you might want to ask on Friday is why the collapse in Labour has not lead to greater enthusiasm for the Conservatives
17. Stuart - I think the LD’s will regard the Henley campaign a success if they poll above 35%. There will be no disappointment or “scythings” if this target is achieved.
14 - is it the question? Surely he was sacked not for being racist, but because he was a political adviser. A political adviser who can’t foresee the negative consequences of ill-chosen words isn’t really much use.
Marcus as I know you think the NHS is total arse, and should be scrapped and handed over to private operators. I take it you won’t be attending the party that DC is holding to celebrate its 60th.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/events/2008/06/conservative-ce.html
I wonder if they will be raising a toast to its creator, Nye Bevan after all he only referred to the Tories as, ‘Vermin’
25
Well it seems very odd to me, BJ in the Telegraph/Spekkie was quick to attack, Labour for banning things, he banned, Booze on the Tube, and the culture of PC, he’s just bowed to it!
Why didn’t he defend his man by saying, ‘He’s done nothing wrong, go f**k yourself’
26 - Has Marcus ever said that?
16/19 - I managed to get a small bet placed this morning at 1/3, perhaps because I rarely use Ladbrokes and have therefore never aroused their suspicion. Depending on how the tennis goes today, I may go in for a second helping later.
26 Pasting your own words into my mouth does not make them my views.
26
in a very vigerous exchange of views with me, some months ago, Marcus made it plain, that he believed that there was nothing that the state does that can’t be done better and cheaper by the private sector.
Marcus also made it plain he did not support his party’s line on the NHS, saying it should be handed over to private insurance companies and charities.
Please tell me if that is a mis-representation of your views Marcus?
I’d lay Napolitano - she’s a terrible media performer.
I do agree with Mike about the problems with the market. The sheer list of people that it could be must number about 30 for each candidate, and I certainly wouldn’t bet anyone at odds shorter than 6 or 7 to 1.
You’re probably best off in this market betting against people. Clinton was never going to be the VP, IMO, and there are other unlikely ones. Ridge is very high up on McCain’s list, but he’s a pro-choicer which means he’s out. Equally, Jindal is far too young to be asked - he’s one for the future but not now.
The other way to do this is to pick up options at extremely long odds, and wait for their prices to fall. You could have made a bit if you followed my early suggestions on Webb, Nunn and Palin.
30
I’ve just seen that, I don’t think I have, ‘Pasted my Words’
I’m sorry that I don’t temember when exactly the exchange took place as I could look it up in the archive.
33 - I think you should do just that.
If you want a political bet with Ladbrokes I think their 11/8 on Obama winning Florida is more than fair - at present http://www.fivethirtyeight.com makes him odds-on. There’s no rule that says races have to tighten - some go the other way…
31,Please tell me if that is a mis-representation of your views Marcus?
About as complete as it gets.
23. Icarus. What I don’t quite understand about Henley is what the LDs hope to gain from such a titanic effort.
I genuinely don’t believe there’s any chance they will take the seat. I too was in Chinnor on Sunday and had precisely the opposite experience to you (except the detestation of all the paper). I found little or no enthusiasm for the LD candidate, the fact he wasn’t local was mentioned several times and the Chinnor Primary School story from the Thame Gazette came up frequently.
So why put in such a huge effort and spend such enormous amounts of money in such a seat. Even if they get up to 45% of the vote, at a GE this is almost certain to evaporate and surely the next GE must be about the LDs taking Labour seats.
So what is the narrative that a massive effort and £100k buys? Lib Dems coming second here?
27 - What was the old Campbell adage? When the political adviser becomes the story, it’s time for them to go, or something?
Sorry, Marcus, but I have to disagree with you on Henley. THe fact is that until this By Election, the Lib Dems have never mounted a proper campaign there in living memory. All their activists did in General Elections was deliver an Election Address and canvass the few areas where they had local councillors. At weekends, they would go to Newbury, Oxford West, Maidenhead etc. where they could be of some use. The Henley results have always been in line with the national results.
Now its different: external help has ensured that the place is comprehensively delivered, properly canvassed and capable of running a Polling Day operation. They may not win, but the result will be much better than has been the case in the past.
And where will their votes come from, if the Labour vote is already low?
34
Can’t be arsed!!
Still Marcus, you have nothing to fear, I think there should be, ‘Honour amongst bloggers’ what is posted here, stays here.
I’m not going to snitch on you to Dave, you won’t be seeing a headline in the Herald Express, ‘Tory PPC called to Tory HQ to explain his views on the NHS’
Anyway, when I visit my tribal homeland, I want to tell everyone, ‘Corse me an Marcus w’ere old mates we are!’
p.s.
You remember what you said, and what your really believe don’t you?
24.
Ho ho
So now the Lab Dims are going to spin 35% at Henley as being a triumph? Dearie dearie me! :-S
40. What an idiot.
40 coldstone either put up your evidence or give it a rest, please. This Ministry of Truth stuff just insults our intelligence.
22 - so Marcus - what’s you’re benchmark?
The Tories to poll 55%+? Lib Dems on 25%?
What would be a ‘good’ result for the Tories? Or the Lib Dems?
OT
Has anyone noticed a sustantial drop in traffic as a result of price of fuel. I reckon my local traffic is down at least 40% if not more. Won’t do much for Gordon’s tax revenues….
42. What a useful post.
40. Not good enough, you have made up things you claim I have said which are blatantly untrue.
I have never said ‘the NHS is a total arse and should be scrapped’ or anything remotely like it. I do not disagree of, or disapprove of our policy on the NHS and I do support our party line 100%.
You talk about ‘Honour amongst bloggers’ but making up things that could be very damaging and then pasting them round the internet is not honourable it’s despicable.
What if I wasn’t on here today to challenge what you have said?
41. I recall the spinning by the SNP at Dunfermline which was almost upto Comical Ali’s standard.
[43] - Sometimes, I still love Google:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/08/22/has-the-media-got-wise-to-gords-policy-stealing/
Comment [236]:
“I am afraid I am completely reconstructed as far as the ’state bad private good’ argument goes - I can’t think of any state provided service where it cannot be handled better by private enterprise and I suspect we are just going to have to agree to differ.”
So Marcus didn’t explicitly say that “it [the NHS] should be handed over to private insurance companies and charities.” but it is fair to say that he would like to see more private sector involvement in the NHS in one form or another.
As far as I know this is [unfortunately] the official policy of both the Labour government and the Tory opposition…
45 - And when did the schools break up?
I got fed up of the waste of paper at the last election in Guildford, not very effective campaigning at all from either party (labour frankly were non-existent).
Now if just one person had actually knocked on my door and discussed some of the issues instead then I would have been much more impressed.
Ditch all the bumf, start talking, that’s my view.
45,
Yes actually. My journey home from work is only a hour instead of 1hr 30mins it usually is.
I am only going 20miles!
Schools in Leeds are around 18th July.
O/T a fine article in the Telegrpah today on the EU, including this line -
‘The attempt to override the triple “No” votes of the French, Dutch, and Irish peoples has brought the EU to a systemic crisis of legitimacy. A line too many has been crossed. Any sentient citizen can see that the process has become unhinged’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/23/ccview123.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
[45,52] - Might this be evidence that price pressure, which could be created by increasing tax on petrol, can achieve what its supporters claim? People often say that their journeys are “essential” and they have no choice but to use the car. Is this not evidence otherwise?
Perhaps people are car-sharing more, or cutting out journeys that aren’t necessary, or even using public transport?
47 I must agree with Marcus coldstone. He’s a Tory candidate and were he to argue the NHS should be dismantled he could be deselected. He never said anything of the kind - I have too much respect for you to say you made it up but you are clearly misremembering this non-conversation.
You can’t accuse somebody of saying something wildly damaging then say you can’t be arsed to look it up. That would be like me accusing Nick Palmer of saying “yes, Labour are indeed a total shower”. You should either find a quote from Marcus or you should gracefully withdraw.
16 & 19.
I’ll try to have a look in to that. It’s nothing personal. It’ll be some boring technical issue.
55,
People are only feeling the pressure because everything else is costing more as well. Not the least of which is food.
56
I know what Marcus, posted to me,
The terms arse etc, were’nt used, that was my shorthand.
But the views were as I stated, it was at the end of a lively discussion, on private versus public ownership, I threw in the NHS as an example Marcus stated, his belief that private would always be superior to public including the NHS which should be handed over to charities and insurance companies.
I finished by congratulating him on being so honest, he obviously has had second thoughts.
49. Why so unfortunate? The best healthcare systems in the world are the French and the Austrians’, both of which use a public insurance system with the bulk of services run by private organisations.
45 schhols break up 23/7
55. Indeed, if only we had taxed to reach this level of oil prices a decade ago, the revenue could have funded proper public transport (high speed rail, light rail, public transport, better subway sysems) by now. And the potential profit that would have existed for companies devising clean technology would have probably provided a break through.
With cars you can drive less, with food you can buy cheaper or (a good idea for me) eat less, the one area that people get stuck with is housing. It’s possible to rent somewhere cheaper if you do so but moving isn’t an easy prospect, if house prices are nosediving and mortgages are being withdrawn with the ones that are left being more expensive then you really are stuffed though.
It’s down to choice, you can choose to rein in some things but how on earth can you reign in housing costs when all options have become more expensive?
The government will live or die based on the housing and mortgage market over the next couple of years.
62
The public will not tolerate levels of taxation were they think they can no longer afford it. The public appears to have reached that point now.
If the government spent money more wisely, it could have done those things without raising fuel tax. It could have done it back in the seventies by creating an investment fund like some of the oil states are doing now.
63 And to add to that, UKPaul, there is the problem of Council Tax, which is also increasing much faster than the official rate of inflation, and which can not significantly be avoided by routine downsizing.
Morning all
Re: Henley - It’s amazing to see the spinning starting and we’re three days off the vote. It still amazes me how some people who contribute so regularly to a political website know nothing about how politics work or how political activists work or think.
Re: US VPs - Can I echo Mike’s original comment ? Looking at the list of runners provided by Shadsy at the BBQ last Thursday evening, I was reminded of the Wokingham or the Britannia at Royal Ascot but with much less form.
If memory serves (and apologies to Shadsy in advance), I think the GOP VP market was something like 5s the field.
For the GOP, the question for any potential Veep is whether being on the losing ticket now gives them any traction going forward to 2012. As I can’t even remember Dole’s VP in 1996 or Goldwater’s in 1964, it may not. I think Charlie Christ is a likely GOP runner in 2012 which would suggest he wouldn’t take on the Veep nomination now but that’s about as far as I’ve got.
51 - I agree with that. I have never been personally canvassed in all the time that I have been able to vote. In that time I have lived in three different marginal constituencies. Fliers are more likely to make me vote against rather than in favour of a party, because they are usually such transparent partisan nonsense.
59 No way Coldstone, you have accused me of wanting to abolish the NHS which -as has already been researched by Timothy above - is not what I said or implied, nor would I because it’s not what I believe.
You have alleged that I do not support my own party on what is a very important issue and I cannot let that go unchallenged.
62. Didn’t WHO find that Cuba have some of the best healthcare in the world as well?
Polyclinics are an attempt to copy the cuban system:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Healthcare_in_Cuba#Studies_of_the_Cuban_health_system_in_the_United_Kingdom
65 - Yes, a good point, although my council tax has been pretty stable quite thankfully.
68. Marcus - I can understand why you are annoyed, but giving this idiot the attention he so pathetically craves is almost certainly a mistake.
69. is to 60.
66 - Do political activists think? The process seems closer to reflex reactions caused by standard sets of stimuli.
69 I think the study you’re thinking of is the one that weighted equality of access much higher than outcome, so it’s unsurprising socialist models did fairly well!
When Castro was ill he went to Spain I seem to recall.
No council tax rises in Scotland.
64. Not if income taxes were cut by the equivalent amount, particularly for the lower paid. One of the worse things Brown has done is discredit pollution taxes by adding them on top of existing taxes.
66. Actually, being a charismatic and talented VP would probably stand you in contrast to McCain. Getting national attention can only help politicians whose reputation is only state-wide.
69. I don’t think so. Cuba is below even the United States, although I’m sure they have some positive aspects.
http://www.photius.com/rankings/healthranks.html
(I know it’s not a reliable site, but I’ve seen the list before and I can assure that it’s correct.)
I see oil is up again today giving the lie to Brown’s silly but headline-grabbing claim that his visit to Jeddah would work miracles. What a grotesque oaf he is.
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php
66 - A losing GOP VP candidate would not get a lot of benefit and may do him or herself some harm. However, if they win, they clearly have a good chance of being President in 2016 and possibly 2012 (or even earlier). So it’s probably a risk worth taking.
76. 74. Makes sense, but still quite high for a 3rd world country.
Mike is correct. The VP market is very tricky. But very tricky can also lead to opportunitites. I’d recommend against covering too many bases. The effort is too great for too little return.
……………………….
New Deseret Poll for Utah :
McCain 57% .. Obama 29%
http://www.ksl.com/?nid=148&sid=3590516
51/67 - Canvassing is much more effective but also far more time consuming and many people who deliver simply won’t canvass. As for leaflets making you more likely to vote against the party, all the evidence suggests your view (whilst no doubt honestly held) is not widely shared.
Mike is right, as usual. This is a difficult market and little more than a lottery. If you want to play, however, you might do well to adapt the advice Peter from Putney occasionally touts in respect of Football Manager markets. Basically, you keep laying short-priced favorites until you have a healthy all-green card.
I’ve been trying it lately and it seems to work. Adapting to the VP markets, you would start by laying Webb, who looks far too short and then backing on the probable drift, or simply laying the next ‘good thing’.
Timing is of course everything, as my girlfriend keeps telling me, and, like van Helsing, I would strongly advise small stakes. It’s a bit more fun than sitting by though, and there could be a few bob in it.
68. Avoiding Torbay for obvious reasons but staying near your patch what do you think of Teignbridge at the election and is Totnes safe I guess Steen is standing?
77. You do realise it would take more than one day for production to increase?
When Brown was chairman of the IMFC, he asked OPEC to increase production and they did. It may well happen again.
84. But prices depend on traders predicting the future, and their opinions take into account all recent news. So if it was a particularly big positive, it should certainly affect the price, even only a day after.
80 - I wonder why they bother polling Utah? Amusingly, the poll also asks about VP choices and the people of Utah overwhelmingly say Mitt Romney in a shock result (!)
I agree on VP betting. See it as a sweep stake and put pin money on an outsider. I have managed to get a few quid on Mark Warner at 50-1. He would be a good choice although the indications are he won’t do it. Has anyone else managed to get 50-1 odds on a recent American political event? If so, why haven’t they mentioned it at every opportunity? Mike?
71 - Of course, you’re right, but just for the record it was Coldstone himself who wrote on the same thread quoted @49:
“So there goes the NHS then, is it the Tories intention to hand the NHS over to private enterprise? Don’t think Dave would be to happy
with that statement!”
So the repulsive old narcissist is citing himself and then attributing it to Marcus.
84 Price of crude is heavily built on sentiment and speculation. The traders don’t share your optimism…….and neither does the usually compliant BBC, it seems: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7468555.stm
Whatever becomes of the price it will have little if anything to do with Brown’s increasingly desperate grandstanding.
85. Correct as usual. Seems to be getting a habit of mine to post something without thinking.
Though i think “silly but headline grabbing” is the wrong way to describe it, it could have worked and was probably the right decision.
I agree with Socrates as regards VP betting. I made a profit backing Schweitzer, Jindal, Webb, Nunn and Strickland, then laying them. I only ever bet very small amounts (impoverished student, so it’s been far more profitable than the main Presidential markets for me.
Now if only Tim Pawlenty’s odds would shorten.
49. I’ve no wish to enter the debate over what Marcus has or has not said in the past, but surely his comment from last August makes more sense if he admits to being “completely *un*reconstructed as far as the ’state bad private good’ argument goes”?
Or might that phraseology fit too nicely onto an Adrian Sanders leaflet for Marcus’ good?
Good article in the “LA Times” on black voter registration in five swing states :
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-blackvote23-2008jun23,0,4641688.story
81 - I don’t think that there is any pay off with big glossy booklets, small leaflets well designed with a quick message yes but anything more involved is likely to go in the bin. They are the sort of thing that activists probably get enthused about but that’s why they are activists.
89 “it could have worked and was probably the right decision.”
It was never going to “work” in a month of Sundays, but it was the right decision if Brown deliberately set out to make himself look ridiculous, desperate, and out of touch.
79. Actually that’s a mistake. The OP numbers for the WHO report, which were the headline rankings, were a measurement of how good the performance of the service was, considering the resources spent on it. For that reason being a 3rd world country shouldn’t be a disadvantage. And also partially explains why the US does so badly, as the level of healthcare, for those that can afford it, is actually quite good. They just waste huge amounts of money on such an inefficient system.
93. I’m with you on this ukpaul. Too many activists seem to believe that voters can be herded willy-nilly into the voting booth - and persuaded to vote for a particular candidate - if sufficient paper is delivered.
I once decided (albeit in a student union election) to vote for whichever candidate didn’t have a teller outside the polling station. Such bloody-mindedness probably isn’t shared by the majority of the electorate, but I’d wager that perhaps 20% of voters are sufficiently proud and independent to act in this way - especially if the parties’ election material seems patronising and over-partisan.
93. My experience is that professional glossy leaflets get a brief look at them to see what they are before they get thrown in the bin, whereas black-and-white ones automatically get dumped in as they are obvious.
I also suspect there is a subconscious effect of making a candidate look more professional, than looking like its been made by the local trumped-up vegetarian on his home computer.
80. Think you might have missed this one Jack…..
New SUSA poll for Oregon
McCain 45% .. Obama 48%
http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/06/22/oregon-vp-matchups-obama/
Obama was +10 a month ago
Re the veep markets, as recommended by Yokel and others the best value was to lay the early favoutites like I did with Huckabee, Crist, Richardson, Clinton and Obama (when Clinton was still in the race). Have sold Webb recently at shortish odds as well as I don’t think he’ll help Obama with the female vote much.
Following Socrates tip of Sam Nunn a while back I’d like to see him come through as I got 100/1 for him to be next veep with VCBet (before they pulled their US markets) but don’t hold out much hope.
Re the GOP, this isn’t a tip but on a personal level I think Rudy and McCain seem to have a good chemistry, and I would hazard a guess he’s probably still on his shortlist, because of his ability to appeal outside the core vote to independents, which will be the crucial battleground this Nov.
76,
So you are agreeing with about the level of taxation then?
96 But Jack, with the best will in the world, the majority of voters are not as interested or willing to be informed as you are! I would love to have complicated discussions with the electorate, but that happens between elections (or at least, it should!) not during elections. Elections are when we have our Sales Drive - non election time is “marketing.”
93. 96. What alternative is there?
Ex-directory numbers and TPS(is that the right initials?) rule out phoning everyone.
On the internet, spamming is a no-no.
Leaflets are the best practical way of delivering a consistent message in a short time scale.
And if you don’t deliver a mountain of paper you will be accused by your opponents of ‘giving up’.
Re: 73 - I presume your tongue is firmly in your cheek, antifrank. I’ve been an activist, a number of people on here still are and while some are too “full on” - one of our number on here seems to blame Brown every time he doesn’t win the Lottery, the vast majority are principled people who work for a cause they believe in.
Re: 76 & 78 - The question for any prospective GOP Veep is whether McCain genuinely has a chance of winning. If the view is that Obama will win, the wise move would be to wait until 2012. Who, after all, remembers Dole’s VP from ‘96 or Goldwater’s from ‘64 ? Being on a ticket that loses badly is often a guarantee of the political wilderness.
IF, however, there is a judgement that McCain can win, the Veep position will look very attractive. Apart from the morbid observation re McCain’s age, the incumbent Veep is in a very strong position to get the nomination in 2012.
Re: 80 - Thank you, Jack. “GOP leads in Utah” is up there with “Sun rose this morning”. We were discussing electoral college votes last Thursday - my best case for Obama is winning 355-183 (all the big states except Texas and picking up places like Iowa, Arkansas and New Mexico).
96 - I know it’s more time intensive but there really is no substitute for talking to voters, even a hated governing party can build for the future by allowing people to offload their anger onto them (not particularly great to do I should imagine but think about the future).
As regards leaflets, anyone who has ever advertised knows that you have very little time between letterbox and bin, a key message about what you will do is enough and that is often best as an emotional appeal. Hope, change (as per the Obama playbook), empathy, shared anger etc.
Having mentioned Obama, his grassroots organisation appears second to none and, something for parties to consider, it has often bypassed party organisation to tap into local enthusiasm of people who just want to do something to help.
98 - There are two states going against the prevailing movement at the moment, Oregon and Minnesota. I don’t know what might be the reason but they should be part of Obama’s next advertising buy.
98. Rudy at 50/1 with Ladbrokes now. Tempting….
81 ” As for leaflets making you more likely to vote against the party, all the evidence suggests your view (whilst no doubt honestly held) is not widely shared. ”
Evidence is a strong word — what is the evidence that you have regarding the effect of leaflets, how was the evidence gathered and is it trustworthy?
FWIW, I agree with antfrank — most fliers of all political parties are such arrant nonsense that most activists should be facing trail for fly-tipping on private property.
106 LOL!
Punter at 83. Lib Dems have passed their high water mark in Totnes; but I am not sure about Teignbridge - it’s on the target list and locally they are working hard but it has had big boundary changes which look very favourable to the LD’s.
The local MP is doing his utmost to make himself completely irrelevant, though - having an MP who is busy putting down EDM’s about the Eurovision song contest might just irritiate enough local voters to swing it….
101 - Same number of leaflets, colour is a necessity (without overkill) but no long sections of text and definitely nothing that you have to open up, most pople will never get to the inside.
A good way of getting to the right people is to have a point for action, something simple like sticking the leaflet in the window, whereby you would then get someone coming to talk to you.
103. My favoured method would be for candidates to hold meetings in every ward or street - either in the open air or in supporters’ homes - and to use leaflets (or, better still, personalized letters) to invite local residents to meet them and ask them questions. Even if a voter chooses not to go along, the effect of the invitation will be much better than that of a leaflet or letter simply soliciting the resident’s vote.
106 - I’m happy to agree with James that my view of fliers is probably a minority view. I don’t think I’m that unusual, mind (not in that regard, anyway).
101 - As so often, American Pie points the way:
“[On being sensitive]
Chris “Oz” Ostreicher: You ask them questions, and listen to what they have to say and shit.
Steve Stifler: I dunno, man, that sounds like a lot of work.”
108 What are the Boundary changes. Have the Teignbridge CCP selected Johnson senior again? With the departure of BJ I’d have though they were under a duty to keep up the ‘maverick quota’ at Westminster.
110 - That is very insightful. You should give that a try - I think you’d find it reaped dividends as an approach.
112 The old Teignbridge seat was carved up - the best bits (for us) went into Central Devon and Teignbridge is now basically Teignmouth, Shaldon and Kingskerswell and mostly Newton Abbott.
Teignbridge selected a lady called Anne Marie Morris about eighteen months ago; I’m pretty sure Stanley didn’t want to stand again.
112. The Tories have chosen Anne-Marie Morris, a West Sussex county councillor, for the Newton Abbot seat; I didn’t know such mobility of candidates was allowed by David Cameron’s local-boy Conservative Party, but there you have it. IMHO Morris looks like a weak candidate, but we’ll have to see what happens.
Re: 110 - This, and a lot of other comments about leafletting, is, to be honest, nonsense. It is incredibly difficult for most candidates or workers to physically talk to more than a very small section of the electorate.
Many won’t open their doors especially at night. Others have very inaccessible letterboxes so a lot of telephone canvassing goes on along with targetted mailshots.
I’ve enjoyed canvassing in the past but it’s appallingly inefficient and borderline in terms of effectiveness. In a small parish or district Ward, it probably is worthwhile to call on everyone but you can’t do that in a 10,000 voter Ward let alone a 70,000 voter constituency.
Leafletting regularly (six times per year) with well-produced relevant local newsletters does work. It creates a sense of continuity and credibility which you can’t reproduce in a three or four week campaign. Mix that with surveys, activity in high-profile local issues and Press coverage.
LD successes have come with campaigns with long lead-in times where the local base, energised and augmented from outside, has had time to get local credibility. The Conservative and Labour parties have recognised this and now prefer short campaigns so the LDs have no time to get traction.
98 Caveman. Thanks for that spot. The last Rasmussen a few weeks back was Obama +8. Oregon remains likely Obama.
Newton Abbot. Do they still make Beer?
69-Perhaps you also agree with the novel way the much lauded Cuban system treated HIV sufferers?
45, 52 Yes - went out to a restaurant in Croydon last night - along the A23 - traffic on Sunday nights is usually horrendous but last night the road was virtually empty. Must have been many fewer day trippers than usual.
Price is the only way to reduce oil consumption - keep it high I say.
Jack P and Antifrank: sorry, gents, but the number of people willing to leave the comfort of their homes (or the pub) for the chance of hearing some politico address a meeting is microscopically small.
110 - You really would get very few people going along and it would waste a valuable evening when you could in fact knock on doors and meet a few punters. I know candidates increasingly view hustings as a waste of time - turnout is poor and maybe three-quarters are simply cheerleaders for one side or another. But you can’t really avoid going for appearances sake (”X is on the run/refusing to debate”).
114 - He wanted to stand for Henley though didn’t he? Stanley is an entertaining sort of fellow but a shambolic candidate for a marginal seat. He would, though, have been a better by-election candidate in Henley as other people would have done the organisation for him and he is much more appealing than the one they chose.
116 - Your problem is that you are trapped in a vicious circle. There aren’t enough activists, so direct canvassing is impractical. So the general public - like me - feel alienated from all political parties. We get bombarded with lots of stuff about what you think, and not very much attention is paid to what we think.
We’ve just seen the US primary season, where Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have turned up at every hole in the hedge. And you’re telling me it’s inefficient? It seems to me that as in many matters, the US is far ahead of the UK in its democracy.
Instead of going for a quick win, political parties should be looking to rebuild trust and dialogue with voters from the bottom. Why on earth do you think that turn-out is in a spiral of decline? It’s because voters see the muppets who presume to speak on their behalf and wisely don’t waste their time encouraging them.
Of course it is harder work canvassing than posting mailshots. It involves hearing views that are unwelcome or opposed to your own, and trying to find common ground (or heaven forfend, realising that your lazy assumption might be wrong). To you, that’s inefficient. To me, that’s just arrogance on your part.
I guess the question is whether you want to win a by-election or whether you want to win hearts and minds. Quite a lot of the activists of all parties on here wouldn’t appear to realise that those aren’t the same thing at all.
122 I think his chances disappeared the moment Labour selected Tamsin Dunwoody.
117 further …. The SUSA Oregon poll also seem to have overpolled GOP registration that when rectified would I estimate pull the Obama lead to around +8.
Important to look at the crosstabs where provided. Another recent example was the last North Carolina survey by Republican pollster Civitas. It gave McCain a four point lead. Howvever they undersampled AA at 18% against a demo of 22% and 04 turnout for Kerry of 26%. The devils in the detail where provided.
123 Turnout declines when the result is not in doubt or there is no desire to absolutely wipe out an unpopular Government. That has not been either case since 1997 in one or 1992 in the other. If it’s either next time watch turnout rocket.
121/122. Fair enough. But I think a really good candidate would benefit from that type of exposure, and might be able to enthuse voters to come out and hear him or her. And, again, elections are won and lost at the margins; each leaflet is only likely to secure a small increment of additional votes for a candidate.
98. I can guarantee you Giuliani won’t be McCain’s VP.
123 - In fairness, Stodge is looking at the practicalities of running a campaign given the resources available and what volunteers are willing to do. He isn’t saying he personally can’t be bothered and is too lazy to put in the hours.
The US example is an interesting one but you have to remember this is a massive and really interesting battle that has brought out the volunteers and chequebooks. Clinton and Obama (particularly the latter) have star quality and can fill a hall easily simply by putting out a press release about their presence. With the best will in the world, those factors don’t apply to a local election or even a campaign for a Parliamentary seat in the UK so you have to work with what you have.
129. The US also has huge differences in policy between the two major parties. I know thats not the case between Clinton and Obama, but there’s huge emotion in finding the person you think is best placed to take on the Republicans. In the UK, the three major parties all agree on most issues, so there’s less enthusiasm to be an activist.
A few years ago, in the Times, there was an article about the local elections in Birmingham. They interviewed a voter (aged 24, worked in IT) about British politics.
• He did not know that Cameron had recently become leader of the Conservative Party.
• He did not read a newspaper
• He did not watch current affairs or news programmes on TV
• He listened to Local music-based radio stations
• He had never looked at a Party website
• He lived in an Entryphone controlled block of flats in Ladywood
He complained that he never heard anything from any of the political parties.
Leafleting and direct mail seems to be the only way any party would have a sporting chance of trying to affect his brainwaves for more than a few nanoseconds.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45.5% .. Obama 52.5% .. Others 2%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 121 .. Obama 272 .. Toss Up 145
Change Since Last Projection - None.
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 162 .. Obama 376.
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
130. for a while now we have had a bit of a consensus on what fiddling around the edges is popular enough to be worth doing.
the choice is whether you want ex-communists or ex-thatcherites to mismanage it for you.
Re: 123 - Sorry, Frank, but I don’t agree at all. Comparing the US and UK systems is doubtful at best. We see Obama, Clinton, McCain etc at various set-piece events but the main medium for the message over there is tv. Do you seriously want to see the type of negative or “attack” ads shown over there to be shown here ?
The US system is also predicated on money - usually, though not always, the richest candidate wins. At least here we have an illusion of genuine democracy through spending limits. In addition, while primaries like Iowa and NH get candidates tramping round for months in advance, it has only been the unusual nature of this year’s Dem nomination race that has seen the later primaries get any more than cursory attention.
I know of many Wards where activists will in effect “cold call” on voters outside of elections. I’ve done it myself. Sometimes it’s ok others it’s dispiriting. I agree more of that kind of activity should happen. It’s actually useful as, if done properly, it builds a base of support and awareness.
MY comments on canvassing related to elections and it shows your complete ignorance of political activity to presume that canvassing is about dialogue with the electors. It’s not. It’s about finding your supporters (and those opposed). There’s little or no time for debate even for the candidate.
In national by-elections you do get the number of activists but ordinarily you’ve got 4-6 people and 200 houses in a two-hour period. Work out the figures and you don’t have a lot of time for each house.
As others have said, the “public meeting” was popular in the pre-television age but just doesn’t work now. In one Ward I worked, they did a monthly “coffee morning” which worked well for a while. I simply don’t accept that the disconnection between electors and elected is down to a lack of activity on the ground.
It is of course down to the centralisation of successive Conservative and Labour Governments which took power away from democratically-elected local Councils and gave it to completely unaccountable civil servants working to Government ministers.
127 - It is true one leaflet is much less effective than one doorstep chat but you can do maybe 100+ leaflets in an hour and perhaps a dozen canvass contacts tops (fewer if a lot of people are out as they are at many times of day).
I would invite you to try your “get people to a little meeting” approach with a local election and see how many people turn up. You would waste an hour sitting there plus much more issuing invitations and you would be very, very lucky to get enough people to sit around a dining table.
The American situation is because they have tapped into people’s wishes and needs, there is little sense of that here and that’s the main parties greatest shame. When you look at anti-war marches, countryside marches and so on you can see that it’s not that people don’t care, it’s because they keep being told that they don’t matter.
It’s much easier to say why something can’t be done than to work out how you can do it and then go and put it into practice.
131. One of the most startling questions I ever heard came from an Oxford student in the summer of 2006:
“Who’s David Cameron?”
If six months of (fairly sustained and positive) media coverage can’t bring a new leader of the opposition to the attention of a 21 year old student living in a marginal seat, then what chance have we got of engaging young people from Tower Hamlets or Knotty Ash in the political process?
117. Jack, agreed. I never said McCain would take the state. What it flags up is the pollster problem in sampling the states correctly.
The May SUSA poll with Obama +10 was R 32%, D 48%, I 19%
The June SUSA poll with Obama +3 was R 41%, D 42%, I 15%
whereas the 2004 election was R 34%, D 32%, I 34%, with Kerry winning by taking independents 60:40 to win the state
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OR/P/00/index.html
I know the GOP have big problems but to get the number of self identified democrats in the state to increase by half from 32% to 48% seems a stretch, and I’d expect to see more indepedents in the polling, so both sets don’t look that accurate.
136 - I’m not sure there isn’t an element of rose-tinted spectacles there. Turnout in November will be historically high but if it’s much over 60% I’ll eat my hat. A lot of Americans would be pretty sceptical about the idea that either McCain or Obama will bring about that key word of “change” on any of the key domestic issues.
I was interviewed for a telephone poll by ICM over the weekend- seemed to be commissioned by the Conservatives, since most of the questions were about perceptions of David Cameron.
re 137. That’s the world we live in. Audiences for TV news bulletins are on the decline, newspapers sales are falling, and the world of multi-channel TV means that large sections of the population can cut themselves off from what’s happening out there. In the old days there was at least one news bulletin on every TV channel every day.
That’s why today’s politics requires leadership figures who can maximise the limited opportunities that are available. they have to be able to make an impact in the few seconds that most people give in their fleeting glances of political news.
134 - I well understand that canvassing is about identifying supporters as opposed to talki