Have the secret briefers cried “Wolf” too often?
July 7th, 2008
Why should we believe them this time?
Yet again this morning’s papers feature “senior ministers” who don’t want to be identified warning of dire consequences for Gordon Brown if Labour fails an upcoming electoral test. Sounds familiar? Yes - we’ve heard it all before.
Just go back only a couple of months and the same was being said ahead of the local elections and the London Mayoral contest. Labour did badly and what happened? Brown stayed.
Then later in May we had the Crewe and Nantwich by election when we were told, again anonymously, that a bad result could finish off Brown. Well Labour had their first by election defeat at the hands of the Tories in more than three decades and what happened ? Brown stayed.
The safe Tory seat of Henley was going to be the next test. Would Labour hold its deposit? Well the party didn’t and suffered the ignominy of ending up with just 1,066 votes in fifth place behind the Greens and the BNP. Brown stayed.
So why should we believe what’s being said in the build up to the Glasgow East by election?
This morning we’ve got the same sort of story splashed on the Telegraph’s front page while the Independent tells us: “A senior member of Gordon Brown’s government said there would be moves to replace him in September before Labour’s annual conference if Labour loses the Glasgow East by-election or the party remains in the opinion poll doldrums.”
Until someone is prepared to go on the record then I for one will treat these secret threats with a huge pinch of salt. From a betting perspective I am quids in if Gordon goes this year - but my 6/1 and 5/1 wagers will only look good when names are attached to the quotes.
MessageSpace Advertising
New masthead: How about the magnificent 26? Then it should be Obama & McCain. Then (after November) it could be a calendar to illustrate the (betting on the) date of Brown’s demise.
It does not suite the Labour party to chuck Brown yet, let him take the rap for the Euro election debacle next year, this will be when the BNP get their first seat in the EP! The Labour party did crap in 2004 and i doubt they could do much worse this time around, even with the dodgy poll figures they get now. If Labour were to improve on 2004, then even if it was bad for them - they would cite 2005 as a comeback that Brown could emulate.
Labour have handled the Glasgow east by-election that badly that a Labour win would seem remarkable.
I think that when Labour figures promote Brown as the man to see us through difficult times - this is a nod to the fact they will ditch him next year; just in time for an election.
“It won’t survive, for instance, a change of Labour leader. We need a new one”
Hear! hear!
Congratulations to Witan on the previous thread for ‘Typo of the Month’: “Brown believes in Brutishness”.
And thanks to srh (post 301) and marcia (post 305) for their brief canvassing reports late last night, eg:
- “I’ve just spent most of the day in Glasgow East. I would be lucky if I got 50% in when I was canvassing. Of those I did get the vast majority were undecided.”
- “The funniest thing I saw was the leaflet Labour were putting on when canvassing. It had clearly been cut in half (very badly) probably because the top half had the picture of their candidate who backed out at the last minute. It looked absolutely awful but they had nothing else to hand over when canvassing.”
- “Spent a day in Glasgow East and getting people in was the problem today. I would say the Labour vote was not soft but mush.”
My conclusion from that, and many other pointers: turnout is going to be horrendously low. As I said a couple of days ago: the winning party could have as few as 5,000 - 6,000 votes.
Also as I flagged up a couple of days ago: the Greens did change their minds and nominate a candidate after all - retired GP Dr Eileen Duke. Thus far we have the following noms (Lab select tonight - almost certainly Margaret Curran):
Frances Curran, Scottish Socialist Party
Eileen Duke, Scottish Green Party
John Mason, Scottish National Party
Tricia McLeish, Solidarity
Davena Rankin, Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party
Ian Robertson, Scottish Liberal Democrats
Once again William Hill withdrew their prices overnight (last I looked they were identical to Ladbrokes for Lab and SNP, ie. 5/6), and Paddy Power have not posted Glasow East prices for a couple of days now. The SNP overtook Labour on Betfair in the last 12 hours.
Ladbrokes:
Lab 5/6
SNP 5/6
Con 100/1
LD 100/1
Betfair:
SNP 1.9
Lab 1.96
Con 150
LD 180
Any Other 180
Most significant news yesterday? Must be this gem from the SoS:
- “Scotland on Sunday can also reveal that internal polling research by Labour shows that the party’s majority in the seat has fallen from 13,500 in 2005 to as little as 5,500.”
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/06/in-the-sunday-papers/#comments
So, the Scottish National Party have 18 days to overturn a 5,500 majority. That is difficult, but do-able.
4. correction: wrong link to SoS. Here it is:
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/Curran-rides-to-the-rescue.4260619.jp
Betting On Obama.President
“”The Republican Party is a dead rotting carcass with a few decrepit old leaders stumbling around like zombies in a horror version of ‘Weekend at Bernie,’ handcuffed to a corpse.”
–an “”Obamacon” with impeccable GOP credentials”
—-
” McCain is frustrated. He thinks he can beat Obama (politicians are pretty confident in their own abilities). But he isn’t convinced his campaign can beat Obama’s campaign. He knows that his three-month general election head start was largely frittered away. He understands that his campaign has failed to develop an overarching message. Above all, McCain is painfully aware that he is being diminished by his own campaign.
This last point is galling. McCain has been a major figure in American public life for quite a while. And yet his campaign has made him seem somehow smaller. Obama is a first-term senator with no legislative achievements to speak of. His campaign has helped him seem bigger, more presidential.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/opinion/07kristol.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
‘Scots crime rate falls 6 per cent’
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Scots-crime-rate–falls.4261127.jp
What the briefings indicate is that there are people in the highest levels of Government that want Brown out. The problem is, everyone already knew that! There’s no indication of how capable these secret briefers are of ousting Brown, except that if they thought they could do it, they wouldn’t bother drumming up support via the front page of the Telegraph. Add to that the glacial progress of internal Labour politics, and I’m waiting for something more substantial before I start betting on Brown being out early.
6. Crushing quotes, but I have to ask, what is it with all these McCain campaign process stories? A way for McCain to say “don’t count me out just yet”?
‘Brown out’ is only phase one. There has to be some idea about phase two, that is, who’s next, before Brown is taken out and shot.
Miliband has stated that he will oppose anyone standing against Brown. The media are up to back him. Anyone standing would be up against the system which will only back a known europhiliac like Miliband.
However if Labour MPs were to get together and form their own view about who it should be, Brown would be in trouble. I guess they are divided, however, into different camps and cannot agree which way to go, the Blairites, the Brownites, the anti-Europe faction, the Unions and so on. Brown can divide and rule his Party in great discomfort, but survive electoral drubbings as a result. It’s like witnessing the death of the dinosaurs.
8, it’s all very well crying to newspapers, but there are only two ‘good’ options for the whienrs:
1) shut the hell up and line up behind your idiot leader. No, it won’t lead to a great success but yes, it will stop the correct appearance of a divided party (and divided not by policy but personality after just about nobody would stand against Brown).
2) assassinate Brown (politically). The window to this is still open, but if they don’t do it this year they never will.
Labour loyalty, which contrast starkly with Tory ruthlessness, is a weakness when led by a muppet. Unlike Gordon, they need to be decisive and either knuckle down or lead a coup.
Also, if true, senior chaps need to stop trying to put pressure on his wife. It is not her job to tell her husband to quit unless she personally wants to, and political jellyfish trying to get anyone else to do their duty is unpleasant.
Brown will not go voluntarily. Even if his brother, his wife, Murray Elder, and the entire Cabinet all piled in to his office begging for him to go, he just will not do it.
Brown is staying put for the full distance, ie. the GE in May or June 2010. Labour may never recover from the drubbing they are going to receive. Good riddance to bad rubbish.
In destroying the British Labour Party, and probably the Union with it, Brown is going to feature large in the history books. In the annals of failure, Brown is a champion.
Mike, the vote on the John Lewis list showed that Labour won’t get rid of Brown.
They don’t want a GE. They do want to feather their nests for two years.
They have boiled all the analysis down to the simple fact that it is better to lose their seats in two years than lose them now.
They could not give a stuff about the wider interests of the Labour party and limiting the damage; they want that salary and those unaudited expenses.
O/T. I see that Boris thinks it’s a waste of dosh to carry on his investigation into why a mop-haired buffoon employed, as his number two, someone whose CV make Harry Potter seem like a train timetable.
Do plod not read the newspapers? Obtaining a job (a pecuniary advantage?) by deception (a false CV) is surely an offence not that different from Mandelson’s mortgage application which they ….er…..forgot to prosecute. Prosecutions these days do not need ‘victim’ to make a complaint. But don’t hold your breath.
Anybody with money on when Brown goes needs to be reading “the Mole”.
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,grumbling-on-the-terrace-as-another-by-election-crisis-looms,33555
“The most popular solutions being punted about the terrace by what increasingly sounds like a defeated army are (a) force Brown to step down in favour of a new leader and (b) appoint an effective Deputy Prime Minister fast.
The trouble with option A is that if they pick a young leader such as David Miliband (and there is no consensus on who it should be) it will bring forward the threat of a general election, which, given the Tory lead in the polls, would make it little short of a suicide pact.
So Option B is the favoured plan.”
Mike, your blogroll link at the side for the Mole should be this one:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/themole,,the-mole
the other is a greatest hits and annoyingly doesn’t link in any way to the current columns, you must click around the site to find it.
IMO the Mole is the most important Labour blog by miles and almost as good as Ben Brogan.
Todays government directive ordering us all to stop is getting dangerously into cone hotline territory.
re 15. Thanks Test. I agree - I am a great follower of the Mole where you will often see the first Labour view of developing situations.
Interesting to see Jackie Ashley write a column this morning which is an almost exact mirror of the sort of column that Bruce Anderson was writing in the mid-90s:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/07/conservatives.davidcameron
‘D minus 18′
Adam Smith Was A Socialist blog
“My fingers smell of lamp posts. In case you wonder what lamp posts smell of, it’s a strange oily-metallic scent that is very hard to shift.
I just wonder if the reason Glasgow East has never really voted SNP more than 29% is that there just weren’t the resources locally to really ask them.”
http://adamsmithwasasocialist.blogspot.com/2008/07/d-minus-18.html
Just a very unworthy thought about the date of the General Election.
How does the the second home allowance work? Is it claimable monthly or just once a year? If the latter, when does the year start?
Could we see the date of the General Election being decided so as to maximise the claims for this and other allowances? Such a thought goes to show how corruption, or just its perception, can enter into the body politic.
Leaving aside the personal and political bias, Morris Dancer is correct - for any political party, it only makes sense to mutter about changing leaders if you seriously intend to do something about it. As I’ve been saying for some months, there is no such intent in the PLP. test’s comment is uncharacteristically ungenerous, and tapestry as usual see Euro-schemes everywhere, but the simple fact is that most Labour MPs think the difficulties will persist under any leader until the economic storm is weathered.
So where do the stories come from? The dynamics of the politician-journalist relationship. What happens is that a senior commentator (say Rachel Sylvester) contacts you and asks for your opinion on what’s happening. You don’t really want to say, “Get lost, I have no opinions and if I had I wouldn’t tell you”, partly because a civil question normally gets a civil answer, and partly because you never know when you might want a friendly journalist to put your side of a story. So you have a chat, speculating more or less guardedly according to how disciplined you are. The journalist does this with 10 people, then takes the least disciplined remark and hey presto there’s the story.
If you’re betting on this sort of thing, the key point to watch for is any suggestion that the person interviewed is going to do anything himself - otherwise it’s just idle pontificating.
‘By-election Update’
Bid for Freedom! blog
“I’m not familiar with the parts of Glasgow that the by-election covers, and from coverage in the media you would think it would be quite bleak. It has problems, like most areas, but it also has a lot of positives too. One thing that really strikes me so far is just how friendly everyone is. I’ve met some great people on the doorsteps, and had some really interesting exchanges. Another thing I’ve noticed is the number of people who have met John Mason over the years as their local councillor, and there is a lot of goodwill towards him.”
http://bidforfreedom.blogspot.com/2008/07/by-election-update.html
20: lol, richard, I’m sure you’re a good bloke but you’re not “the body politic”. No, it’s monthly. If you leave the Commons, you get a final allowance to pay off the notice period etc. (yes, invoice required).
Brown’s departure requires one of two things: Brown to give up, or such massive pressure put on him that he has no option but to go. Neither seems likely.
Gordon did not wait thirteen years to become Labour leader and PM to give it up after twelve months, no matter how bad things are. Apart from anything else, there’s no evidence that it would be better under a different leader and a fair part of Labour’s woes do stem from abroad (though a large part of the lack of action to deal with them lead back to No11 when Brown was Chancellor). He would be right to think - and more importantly, probably does think - that his departure would be at least as likely to do Labour harm as good, and so short of genuine health issues, is most unlikely to stand down voluntarily.
As for pressure being put on, the briefings are happening anonymously because everyone is waiting for someone else to act. No-one senior enough is prepared to bite the bullet and go public - yet. That may change, but Gordon didn’t get where he is by not knowing how to work the back rooms of politics. And there is the point that has right been made earlier.
In any case, it is no good replacing Brown without a phase two to the plan, namely who takes over. There’s a bit of a catch-22 here though. Leaving matters to the vaguaries of an election will paralyse government for two months for another spot of navel-gazing, and may produce an undesired result, but foisting a second unelected prime minister on the country in a parliament will only be tolerated by the electorate if whoever emerges turns out to be a huge improvement. I don’t think there’s anybody who has the potential to be in that category.
Having lost interest in politics over the Wimbledon period my interest was reinvigorated by pictures of the gurning grim bottler in full socialist nanny mode trying to blame me for the current economic woes.
Having first blamed America he now says rising food prices and related economic woes can be partly blamed on the British public wasting food.
This is meant to be his 72nd fight back? A pompous, invasive lecture on how I must lead my life.
I know its early but really he can just F*ck off and sort his own mess out first before trying to find new ways of intrusive incompetence.
Finally, a Smithson question to which the answer would appear to be “yes”! Or will the 100% negative rate mean that they actually do ditch Gordon?
22 - I’m very grateful for the links to blogs covering Glasgow East, but are you aware of any that are non-partisan like the Crewe tv blog was?
16 & 25: But is Brown a latter-day Lord Woolton or Marguerite Patten?
Perhaps when he does a TV cooking demo of how to make Snoek Pie we shall know.
And when did the sainted Gordon last do a supermarket shop?
Grr. Bad editing again. I must learn to read my posts before submitting them! Anyway, the “point that has right[ly] been made earlier” is that it’s no good replacing Brown without a phase two to the plan, namely who takes over - but I split the paragraph and left the first part hanging in the air.
Also, when I say “everyone is waiting for someone else to act”, that includes Brown’s supporters, I didn’t mean to imply that everyone is secretly wanting Brown out - if they were, I really don’t think he could survive. Apart from anything else, his authority would collapse within the government and PLP, as I’m sure the members of each do talk to each other and have a reasonable idea of how the land lies.
I exempt from the remark anybody who voted for transparency in expenses, Nick, and include in the blame whichever Tories voted with the Labour majority.
I’m afraid I believe voting to retain only internal audits, against transparency, and to not require receipts for purchases below 25 quid is simply indefensible.
Certainly you surely cannot argue (and you did not, on the night) that refusal to reform was anything other than outright defiance of the wishes of the electorate. An MP prepared to give the bird to the voters on a matter that gets huge publicity is surely an MP who has given up hope of re-election if they are in a marginal seat.
And if you’ve given up hope of re-election, the next logical step is that you will do anything to avoid an election.
Since getting rid of Brown = GE as Jack Straw already admitted on the Today programme, they won’t do it.
If my logic is wrong anywhere here I’d love to know where. Your vote on expenses was a highly principled one.
Nick Palmer - just to say thanks for the donation to Helen House; you might be very wrong about many things but you’re still a top bloke really
GB’s biggest asset is that some people STILL think he was a good chancellor. Some even describe him as a ‘great’ one, quite without irony. Those who believe that remain oddly resistant to the benefits of hindsight.
This strange view is widely held within the Labour party. Until that changes, it is tough to see how they can replace him with someone they think has achieved so much less.
27. antifrank
No. But if you find one please let us know.
I am finding quite a lot of SNP blogs, but it would be great if someone could point us in the direction of some decent Scottish Labour ones. This might be a good starting point:
http://scottishroundup.co.uk/
http://www.politics-scotland.co.uk/
15 & 30 I think not I think this is spot on from the Guardian. If Brown is ousted it will between the Party conference and the New year. 1. Long enough so even the most hard core Brownites have run out of excuses. 2. Long enough for the new man to have a go while 3 being short enough to resist pressure for an immediate election if they wish along the look there’s only a year to go anyway lines. I guess it won’t happen, but if it does it’ll be in this window most probably.
“One Labour cabinet member has privately indicated they are strongly opposed to trying to dislodge Brown from the leadership even if Labour loses the by-election, saying they want to give him a potential last chance in the autumn to reconnect with voters. That makes late November and December critical months for his leadership.”
“… it still leaves Labour exposed to questions on how she can serve effectively in two parliaments and for how long before a Holyrood by-election is necessary for her Baillieston seat.
For Ms Curran to get added to the shortlist at such a late stage, the National Executive Committee had repeated meetings over the weekend and exempted her from a rule that bars Labour members of one parliament from standing for another. That has been used as a career block to others, but in current circumstances no rules are too inflexible.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2381765.0.Problems_in_heartlands_as_Labour_seeks_candidate.php
“Labour leaders were desperate to avoid yet another by-election so Ms Curran agreed to stay on as an MSP if elected to Westminster for Glasgow East. Labour had to arrange a hurried meeting of its National Executive Committee to give Ms Curran the go-ahead to stand for the Commons while she is still an MSP.
The end result is that Labour will select its candidate tonight – Ms Curran – and begin its campaign tomorrow a full four days after its rivals. And, in a by-election campaign as short as this one, that four-day delay could make all the difference.”
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Is-the-writing-on-the.4261110.jp
“The party’s National Executive Committee was repeatedly in conference calls over the weekend and approved an exemption to its rules allowing Ms Curran to stand for Westminster while a member of another parliament.
Ms Curran was unwilling to talk about her plans yesterday, but a spokesman said that, if she wins the Westminster seat, “she will stand down from Holyrood at a point in the foreseeable future and not a long-term future. It’s about finding the appropriate time to do that”.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2381754.0.Labour_bid_to_approve_Curran_as_byelection_candidate.php
I wonder what Margaret Curran will have to say about one of her colleagues at John Smith House saying “she will stand down from Holyrood”!! Lots of flowery language will be involved, that’s for sure.
So, a by-election in Glasgow Baillieston is a (remote) possibility.
Result - Glasgow Baillieston - May 2007
1. Lab (Margaret Curran) 9,141 (52.9%)
2. SNP 5,207 (30.2%)
3. Con 1,276 (7.4%)
4. LD 1,060 (6.1%)
5. Scottish Christian Party 588 (5.8%)
turnout: 38.9%
The obvious question is though: would anyone want to be the Labour candidate?
I see that Tractorman is telling us to stop wasting food.
Yes, thanks for that advice Gordon. As if we can afford to.
Ousting Brown now would lead to either an early general election or the new leader being blamed for the continuing economic crisis.
Labour MPs want neither of these things.
35 “I wonder what Margaret Curran will have to say about one of her colleagues at John Smith House saying “she will stand down from Holyrood”!! Lots of flowery language will be involved, that’s for sure.” Easy. She’ll just say standing down in the same way Braveheart will be standing down from Banff and Buchan in the 2010 election.
Nick P is absolutely right - there is no sense trying to read much into these kinds of stories; they are the product of journalists and ministers chewing the cud, a world where the journalist asks the minister to speculate (”it would be a disaster if you lost Glasgow East, wouldn’t it?) and the minister perhaps says or implies more in his response than he really means (”questions will be asked… It’s the sort of event that could preciptate a challenge to Gordon”).
If there are malcontents in the PLP (and by God there should be), they need to grow a pair and do something about it. If they don’t want to, they need to get in line and do all they can to stop the ship from sinking.
I’m back to being a firm believer Brown will last the course. The option of changing leader is looking increasingly unviable.
OT - Wage slave, I think it is deplorable that you advocate prosecuting Lewis. Whatever his mistakes, however much of a fool he has been, he was a guy who was genuinely making a difference in an area of society no politician has the first notion how to fix. He was apolitical too - he is not your enemy. And now his reputation has been destroyed. I think the man has suffered enough, don’t you?
36, remind me again how much MPs get for food on expenses? £4,000 is it?
All very sensible - don’t throw out the dirty water until you have some clean - but haven’t things gone beyond sensible? Caligula was got rid of because everyone realised he was a disaster (I don’t advise pushing the analogy with Brown too far, though the price of bread was probably involved!) and there was no successor chosen until after the event and the Praetorian Guard selected Uncle Claudius. If Labour lose Glasgow East I really believe Brown will have to either go or put himself , Major like, up for re-election.
Nick [23] - so the Wintertons have to give themselves notice - and get paid for it I suppose!
Punter, I would like to ask you 2 personal questions:
- How old are you?
- And what is your highest level of educational attainment?
Just wondering, because I’m sure the answers to those 2 questions would explain quite a lot about your posts here at PB.
35 Was Glasgow Bailleston one of the seats were a load of ballots were rejected at the 2007 election?
42 Err why. Have I offended you.
39.
“Lewis’… reputation has been destroyed. I think the man has suffered enough, don’t you?”
They said exactly that about Mandelson. His reputation was worth millions to the chattering classes and half a farthing to anyone with more than half a brain. He lost out REALLY badly, didn’t he?
Let’s face it, Plod will run a marathon backwards rather than feel the collar of any member of the chatteratti. The law is for the hoi polloi, eh Dame Shirley?
re 21. Nick - I know it’s easy to blame all this on the media but I have had fairly senior figures in the party telling me in no uncertain terms that Brown has to go ASAP.
This is being talked about and the views expressed in the papers today are being expressed voluntarily.
44. Thank you. That sufficiently answers my questions. No further elaboration is necessary.
47?
Glasgow East getting nasty already. From Paul Flynn Labour MP http://tinyurl.com/6zmyor
“But there is deep reassuring loyalty from the ‘Labour until I die’ folk of Glasgow. There are more of them in this constituency than anywhere else in Scotland. Religion may be a factor with a Baptist SNP candidate and a Labour one with an Irish name.”
You wouldn’t want a protestant MP would you…..
I may be proved wrong but…
Surely all this talk of the end of Brown is a bit like talk of ending the Monarchy? There simply isn’t a mechanism to make it happen if they don’t want to go.
It is not in the Labour tradition to, ‘dispose’ of its leaders by the knife in the back method, (The Tories are the past masters of that) but then we’ve never had a third term Labour government before.
Punter don’t worry about Stuart; he’s just a fan of punctuation.
He’ll like this post as it has a semi-colon in it.
Aparently soaring food inflation is all our fault for buying to much and then throwing it away. Thanks for that insight Gordon, after all wastage is your field of expertise
I’m sure that message will go down with the voters like a fart in a lift
If Brown stays on, much depends on who is left after the landslide defeat. One problem for Brown’s would be assasins is would any successor be in danger of losing his seat? The big Tory leads have lengthened the lists of vulnerable ministers, and ex-ministers. If for example Jackie Smith decided that she was the best candidate to succeed Brown, is she likely to do so if she felt that she would be better defending her position at Redditch as both an MP and PM, rather than wait and see if she holds on to her seat at the next GE? How many PBers would have seen Hague as Major’s successor in 1997?
Rich and Marks cartoon over on Guido excellent. http://www.order-order.com/
43. Ian C - “Was Glasgow Bailleston one of the seats were a load of ballots were rejected at the 2007 election?”
Probably, but I do not have the stats to hand.
My understanding is that the level of rejected ballots was much higher in predominantly Lab/SNP seats, like this area.
#34
With the Queen’s Speech scheduled for December, something is likely to happen in October/November. [Delayed June 2008 GE?]
#42
Bill Gates [spits] is one of many bright, successful and wealthy people who did not achieve all they could within the education system. Bit unfair to question Punter in such a way. [Then again, Polly Tonybee may prove your point....
]
On-topic:
As for the option of appointing a DPM as an alternative to sacking Brown, that just turns the Labour leadership into a Regency. Brown would be an even greater lame-duck as the DPM would, infact, be shaping the Cabinet and policy for the next GE. Why would Brown tolerate this?
Anyone know how to search through PB for an old post without having to open every thread ?
Ref. 35 and related Scottish matters. The ‘Banshee of Bailleston’ Margaret Curran has said she will remain an MSP; Alex Salmond told people he would sit in both parliaments before being elected to either, so the SNP can snipe at a part-time MP with some degree of comfort.
http://520votes.blogspot.com/ expected Glasgow East to be the same day as the by-election (Motherwell and Wishaw) required for Jack McConnell to go to Malawi. The rush means that they will have that by-election circus sometime soon (plus another one due to illness - don’t remember the details).
SNP activist bloggers very upbeat at this stage (they would be wouldn’t they, but they sound convincing).
58
No! you have to work through every thread, if your interested, it takes about 3hours per month.
Oh! if anyone knows anything different please tell me.
If you want to understand modern Scotland, you could do worse than begin by reading Tom Devine’s essay in today’s Scotsman: ‘A century of changes shaped country’.
It is published in the lead up to the opening on Friday of a new permanent gallery at the National Museum of Scotland, chronicling our modern history: ‘Scotland: A Changing Nation’.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/A-century-of-changes-shaped.4261111.jp
http://www.nms.ac.uk/scotland_changing_nation.aspx
http://www.friendsofscotland.gov.uk/scotlandnow/issue-12/arts/changing-nation.html
Scottish Parliament list.
“Of the ten constituencies with the highest proportion of rejected ballots as a proportion of votes cast, 8 were in Glasgow and 2 in Lothians. The ten constituencies were as follows:
• Glasgow Shettleston (12.09%)
• Glasgow Maryhill (10.18%)
• Glasgow Pollok (9.79%)
• Glasgow Baillieston (9.67%)
• Glasgow Springburn (8.81%)
• Edinburgh East and Musselburgh (7.76%)
• Glasgow Cathcart (7.35%)
• Glasgow Anniesland (7.27%)
• Midlothian (6.16%)
• Glasgow Rutherglen (5.81%)”
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/business/research/briefings-07/SB07-36.pdf
And more bad news for Gord, Harriet is trying to position herself..
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1032645/Harriet-Harman-pitches-stand-Prime-Minister-job.html
57 The strong DPM option looks like the option for internecine warfare recreating Blair-Brown but institutionalising it.
My feeling is that Glasgow East will be a Labour win, on small turnout with hugely reduced majority, and Brown will stagger on to the Great Autumn Re-Launch and despite the almost certain failure of that through into 2009.
62. dr spyn - Ta!
64. Ted - “My feeling is that Glasgow East will be a Labour win… “
On what information do you base this judgement?
56. 43.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHbGCR6lutY is the video of the election returns. 1850 rejected papers. Margaret Curran’s acceptance speech is worth watching, but more than once would be bad for you.
59. BrianSJ - “plus another one due to illness - don’t remember the details”
I think that you are thinking of Glenrothes: Labour majority of 10,664 over Scottish National Party.
The definitive independent By Election blog was “guacamoleville” during the Hartlepool contest. It was very even-handed, and full of news from all camps. I am not sure who did it, but the sources were impeccable, and the editorial control was first class.
59 - up and until Friday, Labour had a page on their website attacking Alex Salmond for being in two parliaments. That was then pulled. However it can be seen in this blog.
70 - http://scotsandindependent.blogspot.com/
21. Nick Palmer thinks I see euro-schemes everywhere.
This lady from Poland certainly does - extracted from Telegraph article - quoted as -
Miss Kotlarz is typical of a generation that is hungry for a better life. She remembers the shortages and restrictions from her childhood in the workers’ paradise, and she knows that joining the EU has brought Poles like her opportunities that her parents only dreamt of.
She worked in an aquarium in Cheshire to improve her English, and now looks forward to a bright future at home. Yet she feels unhappy with the way Poland’s establishment sees Europe.
“The media view is that everybody is pro-EU and if you are not, you are stupid,” she said. “I spoke to a friend of mine who is working in Ireland and she said it was exactly the same there. And yet the Irish rejected the treaty.”
The British media is little different, I would suggest, and that means a eurosceptic candidate for the Labour leadership such as Frank Field or Gisela Stuart, who could actually reverse the Party’s electoral fortunes, would find it very hard, but not impossible, to win the leadership.
Page 20 of the study shows the level of rejected ballots in Glasgow - At a glance the rejected Regional figures are about 50-80% higher than the Locals.
http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/business/research/briefings-07/SB07-36.pdf
It is not Frank Field’s euroscepticism that makes him unsuitable to be a leader of the Labour Party.
49 Icarus
Thanks. That Paul Flynn MP appears to be a horrid little turd. I do not really know anything about him. Does he have ‘form’ in playing the sectarian card? A certain London left-wing politician was a master of that kind of sh*t when he was still in Glasgow.
45. “His reputation was worth millions to the chattering classes and half a farthing to anyone with more than half a brain”
That’d be a groat then.
58, 60. If you can remember some key phrases try searching on Google and restrict the results to just this site.
46, 21 Yes I think Mike is right. There is virtually no one in Labour who thinks Brown should lead the party into the general election. It’s ages since I’ve seen even one post on this - the leading poltical blog - from a Labour supporter defending him. That tells its own story.
76.
As in “Peter Mandelson sticks in my groat?” The compassion and humility of Melanie Phillips, the intellect of Benny from Crossroads.
@63:
Just when you think Labour couldn’t find a worse candidate for PM, along comes Hattie to prove you wrong.
30: test, yes, I’ve not changed my view - it was a stupid vote. I’m not sure it was exactly a greedy one - the greedy thing would have been to take the £2000 which was rejected, not to insist on the sacred right to buy a wardrobe on expenses. It was an oh-sod-it-I’m-not-having-this vote against perceived micro-scrutiny. I suspect that some of the more bloody-minded posters here would have done the same, actually. But I doubt if it’s a guide to attitudes to leadership and elections, not least as few than half the MPs voted on it at all.
31: thanks, kingbongo! In the spirit of this thread, I’ll rush out a leaflet at once. “A very senior Conservative, speaking on condition on anonymity, says…”
41: yes, as I understand it they would have to give themselves notice, and if their landlords insisted on a lengthy notice period forcing them reluctantly to use the full winding-up allowance (which most former MPs don’t), I’m afraid there’s nothing they could do about it. (How does one do the rolling-eyes smiley?)
78: have you given up reading my posts, nickc? And even tyson, who hasn’t been sparing in his criticism, said a couple of days ago that he was having another think.
In response to Mike’s “Have the secret briefers cried “Wolf” too often?”, I am reminded of the positon of the Evangelicals within the Church of England, who since the 1950’s have been threatening to secede from the Anglican church on a whole range of issues from stone altars, to priestly vestments, to women priests, to homosexual issues, to liberal teaching, to women bishops etc etc, and yet never do; they just keep moving the goalposts concerning the next issue that they would refuse to tolerate.
75: Paul Flynn is a notably independent-minded dissident - the sort of Labour MP, like Frank and Gisela, who people in other parties like to quote when it suits them.
Enough serial posts from me - work to do…
Harriet Harman in her Happy Blog (seriously) gives the reasons why she is promoting her Equality Bill. Her second reason reads like this -
To increase my chances of becoming leader of the labour party: It really is quite tedious having to go through the hassle of getting elected and being qualified. Much easier to just change the rules so that a woman will be picked. Obviously there aren’t any ethnic minorities who could even DREAM of running for party leadership or even (gasp) Prime Minister*** so there’s even less competition.
It really sounds like the voice of a statesperson, doesn’t it. But however daft she sounds and is, she might however have the balls to start the process of Gordon’s removal, when all the others shrink from the task!
Re. 75, no, he’s fairly tall. As so often with politicians billed by parts of the media as a plain-speaking type (like Clare Short), he’s a sanctimonious bore, in love with the sound of his own droning voice.
Happy Blog
second attempt. mistake on last.
Matt J many thanks for that advice. Using it I have checked that my solution to solving the 10p tax problem was posted on 20th April. An Early Day Motion (EDM 1477) on the 6th May used my solution though was credited to the “Brilliant” (if a little slow) David Taylor (NW Leicestershire).
The listings of Icarus references on Google is fine the first appropriately refers to a Ms Jody Dunn - Is there any way of ranking Google by date? Think I need a Google for Dummys link!
still no good. sod it. key http://www.harrietharman.blogspot.com to see her Happy Blog.
I see Hills have cut Labour in to 8/13 and eased SNP to 6/5 this morning for Glasgow East. Ladbrokes still has joint favourites at 5/6 though.
785 Stuart - Why do I think Labour is still just favourites to win?
Partly because it feels like Darlington in 1983, a perfect storm on the horizon which turns into a squall when it hits. The SNP has to establish itself as the “straight choice”, the repository of all opposition votes, win some Labour support and hope its GOTV works better than Labour’s (particularly for postal votes).
It’s a tough task, even with Gordon Brown and the Scots Labour Party in disarray, to overcome the tribalistic Labour loyalty. Margaret Curran’s decision to give up hope of leading Scots Labour and hitch her career to what looks now like a party heading for opposition is indicative of the loyalty the movement still commands. The SNP comes across as over-confident of victory rather than the insurgent underdog. Last year the SNP didn’t do well against Labour in the voting, despite good polls in the lead up, so question its ability in Glasgow East.
83. Mr. Collinson, are you by any chance Prof Patrick Collinson of Trinity College, Cambridge? I ask simply because of your reference to matters ecclesiastical.
So we have a dithering PM, MPs who dither over replacing the great ditherer and other MPs who dither over choosing a DPM because of fear of upsetting the “anti-white man” vote killer Harriet Harperson.
In Glasgow East the local party dithers over selecting its candidates because candidates dither over standing and at least one dithers and then fails to turn up to a selection meeting.
Harriet says she wants to be involved in Glasgow East, maybe to ensure the “anti-white man” agenda is at the core of the election address?
The Mail still running on Lewis.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1032670/Boris-cancels-inquiry-deputys-past.html
Hmmm The Bishop of Barking claims he spoke to Johnson, ‘Face to Face’ about Lewis, a spokesman for Boris said he didn’t.
‘Right, Bell, Book and Candle, I think!’
Err, Tapestry, Harriet’s happy blog is a spoof - You did know that…….. didn’t you.
92. I was going to ask the same question.
“The Bishop of Barking” Is there really such a person? Though it does seem that these days it is a requirement of being in the C of E.
79 Wage Slave, it is a bit unfair to compare Peter Mandelson with Benny from Crossroads.
Benny had the odd good idea and was basically decent.
Alan Cochrane in the Telegraph today says that Labour are about to select Margaret Curran, a former Holyrood minister as their candidate, but just imagine an alternative for a moment. Instead of an experienced Scottish politician or a local politician with an impressive CV, the Labour Party makes the boldest possible move to avoid defeat and throws this by-election to a politician with one of the biggest media profiles in the country, a large personal following, considerable appeal to working-class voters, and no job at the moment. Just imagine if Labour were to select Ken Livingstone. With one bold stroke Brown would have guaranteed the by-election for Labour and ended the speculation that it will prove his death-blow. And Livingstone would have won a historic by-election, saved the Labour party from ignominy and – perhaps, just perhaps – found his way to a seat at the Cabinet table.
I don’t think it will happen. But can anyone tell me why it shouldn’t?
To read more of my views link to my blog, Just who the hell are we? on wordpress.com at:
http://adammcnestrie.wordpress.com/
99
There’s one reason I can think of, the language barrier, Ken would have to get a translator.
Anyway, when Boris ends up in, The Priory’ ‘cos I should imagine he’s really, really back on the booze by now, Ken will probably be re-electd by a landslide.
91. Ted - do you live in Scotland?
‘The SNP has to establish itself as the “straight choice”’. From my perception living in Scotland, you now need a reason to not vote for Scotland (i.e. SNP). This country will be a one-party state till there are new opposition parties. Goldie is well out of the blocks, the SLD is in a mess, and Labour can’t start until it becomes a separate party from the London one.
For this seat, let us just reprise. The election is called because the Labour MP feels depressed about scamming half a million. The first 4 Labour candidates could not stand because they are due to appear before the Standards Commission (also Margaret Curran’s son). The campaign may be run from London by babykiller Harman.
The SNP do have a very good candidate who is well-known. The SNP machine is legendary.
80/1 going on 10/1 for Labour in third place.
82 No, but I confess that I don’t read all old posts on days when I’m not here, and I don’t follow US politics much so I miss out those topics as well, that’s why I said that I hadn’t seen any posts from Labour supporters defending Brown, not that there haven’t been any.
I respect your position as an MP and long-standing Brown supporter and I would be amazed if your public position was anything other than supportive.
83 No, I am a minister of a Reformed Evanglical church in North Wales.
101. BrianSJ - is that the same legendary machine that did not win Dunfermline?
103 - spelling: Evangelical, sorry.
95. don’t spoil it!
“….but I confess that I don’t read all old posts on days when I’m not here,”
Grounds for excommunication, Mike?
Well said. Labour ministers may well be talking the talk behind closed doors, but until someone comes out and challenges Brown then this story is of no consequence.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
Sorry again, my response in 103 was to comment 92
Back to the thread… Remember how long it took for Conservative MPs to oust IDS.
They knew they had made a mistake the day they failed to make it Clarke v. Portillo and it was then passed over to an overwhelmingly Eurosceptic electorate. It took over two years to wield the knife despite almost constant anti-IDS briefing from ’senior figures’.
What really did for IDS in the end was, perversely, that he started to improve in the polls, actually leading Labour (on YouGov) in the summer of 2003 and immediately after the 2003 conference.
Those MPs who had sat on the fence suddenly realised at conference that the party members were not going to do their work for them; the members had voted IDS in and weren’t going to change their minds without the MPs biting the bullet and giving them an alternative.
So, when that realisation struck, the end of IDS came swiftly; within six weeks.
Lessons for Brown; don’t start to bounce back in the polls. If you do, MPs will suddenly wake up to the fact that they don’t have the time to ponder the future and assassinate you at leisure. They will realise they are just 18 months from an election and that anointing Michael Howard (for Labour read Jack Straw, Harriet, or Cruddas) will at least keep the core vote onside.
There is absolutely no constitutional or legal reason why a new Labour leader as PM necessitates a general election. That was a Jack Straw statement that was designed to build another defensive wall for Brown.
All the constitution requires is that a new PM can form a government if it has the confidence of the House of Commons. If he can he has the job.
The example the Labour party should look at is John Major. A leader ousted and he wins the leadership election coming from behind.
There was two years to a forced general election and he comes from behind again to win that with only a minute drop in votes than the Tories had had in any of the previous three elections.
With the built in bias currently, the same vote would give Labour a landslide. Even with a more modest recovery they might still have a majority.
But if they wait too long dithering then the opportunity will pass and the future looks very grim.
I agree Witan - However as I expect the new leader to be Jack…..
On topic, I take the point that there is an awful lot of unattributable chatter and there are conspicuously few people prepared to put their head above the parapet. If Gordon Brown is to leave it is going to have to happen of his volition or there is going to have to be an uprising outside the formal terms of the Labour party’s constitution. That is not easy to engineer and does require some courage, even if there is a groundswell of public and party opinion backing such a change. The fact that the chatter doesn’t go away shows just how poorly thought of Gordon Brown is.
Will Gordon Brown be ousted? I don’t know. Will Labour recover under his leadership? I can’t see that at all, not least because of the number of Labour politicians willing to grouse unattributably about their leader.
My suspicion is that there will come a point this year when things are so awful that someone decides to have a go. If that doesn’t happen, then the Tories are on course to win a cataclysmic majority in 2010. The country doesn’t deserve that, but if the Labour politicians are too cowardly to act on their own mutterings, they will deserve everything that they get.
Having 2 Currans (SSP & Labour) will not help Labour at all. There’s bound to be a number of votes accidentally going to the wrong candidate at the polling station.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 44.5% .. Obama 51.5% .. Others 4%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 78 .. Obama 294 .. Toss Up 166
Changes Since Last Projection - North Dakota moves from Likely McCain to Toss Up McCain. South Dakota moves from Likely McCain to Toss Up McCain. Minnesota moves from Likely Obama to Safe Obama. Wisconsin moves from Likely Obama to Safe Obama.
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 187 .. Obama 351.
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
re 110 Yes - that’s an interesting take on the ousting of IDS.
The poll improvement that IDS saw in September-October 2003 was not really down to him but the awful media coverage that Blair saw during the hearings of the Hutton Inquiry into the death of David Kelly.
112 Icarus. “However as I expect the new leader to be Jack….”
Jack W ?!?!?!?
Morning Jack - I thought you were in the running for VEEP.
Baskerville - interesting parallel. In fact IDS fell because the media ran a blistering two week coordinated assassination against him. It might have had its origins amongst MPs.
More likely it was assisted and coordinated by the Press masters in power in October 2003, Blair and Campbell. Murdoch was driving it hardest. IDS was hurting Blair, and he was rising in the polls. Murdoch wanted to prove his credentials to the EU Competition Commissioner, and pay back Blair.
More eu-schemes, I’m afraid. IDS only lost the confidence vote by a whisker amongst MPs. Had he not been media assassinated first, he would no doubt have survived.
As for Brown, the EU don’t want him replaced as he is loyal and delivering on Lisbon ratification. His survival until 2010 ensures that Britain’s ratification is not in doubt. Were he replaced, the security of Labour’s loyalty to Brussels might be threatened, and that would never do.
118. Icarus is that the Very Elderly Eccentric Person contest?
118 Morning Icky. Jack W doesn’t run for anything, least of all for second prize !!
103 surely ‘reformed evangelical’ borders on being an oxymoron
splits within Christianity are amazing - think of the poor old Maronites, ending up being hated by everyone for trying to come up with a compromise - it all makes extreme left wing politicos look like beginners.
Actually on thread - Gordon is staying, stop talking about it but bet with confidence.
Nick P - look forward to the leaflet but only if it’s on high quality paper!
c’mon Jack - what is going to happen in Bonnie Glasgow East?
116. But IDS punched the awfulness of the Blair lies in 2003. ‘Mr Blair, no one can believe a single word you say’ struck home and is still the primary thought people retain about Blair to this day.
Without the Iraq fiasco, Blair would not have made himself vulnerable, but once IDS realised Blair was a total liar, he never stopped hounding him about it. People believed IDS. They did not believe Blair. And that began to weigh in their electoral choices.
120 Stated in German accent :
“Your name vill also go on zee list. Vot is it ??”
(Dad’s Army)
119. interesting rewriting of history there. however most agree that IDS was completely unelectable.
115 - Jack, your stats are pretty conclusive.
On the other hand, that great contrarian indicator, W Rees Mogg, has called it for Obama, too. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/william_rees_mogg/article4281786.ece
Now, if Roger endorses Obama as well, he’s in real trouble.
123 Icarus. Not too much “Winning Here” me thinks !!
122. the variation in different strains of Christianity is amazing nowadays when you consider what trivia constituted ‘heresy’ in the past.
I have instructed Mi Lord Rennard to fight a Henley style campaign - a Labour Henley campaign that is!
125 - Personally I would have thought that deserved a Dalek like Extermenieren! Extermenieren!
We’re told that La Curren was the 5th/6th/7th choice as Glasgow East candidate and that Lab Party rules need to be made more flexible to allow her to stand.
So who is the 5th/6th/7th choice as replacement PM?
And will the Party rules be bent to allow the rapid jettisoning of Gordon?
Er…. where does Harperson rate in the replacement stakes? About 6th, isn’t it?
Oh dear.
127 animal. Yes, the Moggy prediction is worrying.
In fairness to McCain the tipping point for several of the swing states remains pretty tight. Two examples are Ohio and Michigan that are just in the “Likely Obama” column (+5%-10%). More troubling for McCain is the number of states moving away from him right across the prediction. The current trend is clear and it’s to Obama.
94.
Barking Boris’ Boles bashes Barking Bishop.
“On May 11, days after Lewis was appointed, the Bishop of Barking the Right Reverend David Hawkins outlined his concerns to Mr Johnson in person. This was followed up with a letter.
“The Reverend Chris Newlands, chaplain to the Bishop of Chelmsford, said: ‘The Bishop of Barking did speak face to face with the Mayor at an event at Millwall football stadium on Whit Sunday.
Yesterday, in an attempt to deflect blame, the party accused the Church of negligence in their handling of the affair. David Cameron’s close adviser Nick Boles said: ‘The Church sat on it and suddenly decided to bring it to the public [arena] now. Why?’
Mr Newlands countered that it was the Tories who initially failed to make the necessary checks and then ignored their warnings.
A spokesman for the mayor insisted that the Bishop of Barking did not talk to Mr Johnson about Mr Lewis eight weeks ago.” (Mail)
Boris is at his Whit’s end. When will we see the: “I was only at Millwall coz I luv dogs” claim?
107
130 Icarus. You’ll not be disappointed.
126. ‘Most agree that he was pretty unel