The favourite pulls out of the Dems V-P race
July 7th, 2008
Will Kathleen Sebelius become the punters’ choice?
Big changes in the betting on who will fill the V-P slot alongside Barack Obama following a statement within the past hour by Senator Jim Webb from Virginia.
In a statement Webb said: “Last week I communicated to Senator Obama and his presidential campaign my firm intention to remain in the United States Senate, where I believe I am best equipped to serve the people of Virginia and this country. Under no circumstances will I be a candidate for Vice President.” That sounds pretty definite. Maybe he’s been told by Barack that he won’t be chosen.
Webb had been at just over 3/1 on Betfair - tighter than Hillary Clinton and the governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius. As I write you that’s shifted to about 10/1. This leaves Hillary in the favourite slot though my guess is that Sebelius will soon be where the money is going.
Last week Obama told a Missouri station: “I love Kathleen Sebelius. I think she is as talented a public official as there is right now. Integrity. Competence. She can work with all people of all walks of life, but I promised that I am not going to say anything about my vice president until I actually introduce my vice president.”
Earlier today Sibelius’s prospects were talked up in an article by the influential Walter Shapiro in this piece on Salon.
I think this is a very difficult market to bet on because the choice is in the hands of one man - and who knows what he could be thinking.
Mike Smithson
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123. I’d say Sebelius, Nunn, Warner, Kaine are the top tier. I’d be tempted to include Bloomberg and Edwards in there too.
Mike- such a ringing endorsement of Sebelius means that she is well out of the hunt.
2. Unless its a double bluff.
Thanks Socrates.
1 - Warner’s been pretty unequivocal about not being a candidate, Nunn negates the age issue benefit that Obama has over McCain. As Mike says though, this is an impossible race to guess.
5. He hasn’t been unequivocal. He said he wouldn’t take “any other office”, which is almost not a denial at all in US politics.
Whoever backed Webb to that favourite status must have really been off their heads.
Always an outsider.
More significant may be Webb’s own views on Sam Nunn.
It is the boredom factor with Sebelius, and Hillary’s reaction that makes me think that she ain’t goin to be picked.
7. Yeah, I pumped his name while he was an outsider, but that he got down to under 4/1 odds was ridiculous.
Mike. I would have thought that Obama will avoid choosing a woman other than Clinton, for fear of her wrath and that of her supporters. I don’t think he will choose Clinton. Other than that I haven’t a clue. Perhaps one of us should email Obama and request an “exclusive” to PB.com once he finally decides?
Incidentally, have PBers noted the wealth of new Betfair markets on the US elections?
re 10 At last someone listens to my call for Electoral College vote betting.
On the V-P issue I’ve had a few bets already, including on Webb, and I am going to end up a loser.
11- Mike- the last time I looked on the betfair electoral college market there was approximately 0 matched.
I thought your leader the other week said it all about the VP market. Some very tempting odds admittedly, but no skill involved.
I like you think I will be in the red on this market, but am still hanging in for Hillary, Edwards, Bloomburg and Biden.
Sorry, Mike. I tried to warn you all not to waste your money on Webb, but to no avail I guess. I certainly can’t claim to know what motivated Webb to make his statement, but I’m sure the real reason is something other than his belief that he is better off a senator than a vice president.
Is Strickland definitely out of it?
14. Yes.
13. You could have made a lot of money on Webb if you backed him back in the day and layed him when he was favourite.
(Am I getting my terminology right? It’s all sounding very dodgy…)
Well, from a betting point of view this should shift money to Warner and Kaine, because Virginia is still going to be pivotal.
Sebelius is also said to be a bit too pro-abortion. Plus Kansas isn’t exactly winnable (pundits have raised surprisingly close results in Texas or North Dakota, but not Kansas).
Re. 13, he could be wary of the media re-visiting his reportedly huffy resignation as Reagan’s Navy Secretary, or some of his racier novels.
I’m slightly surprised that Governor Schweitzer of Montana hasn’t been mentioned. Clinton won Montana in 92, and Schweitzer is a real blue dog Democrat.
9. I like Jim, he’s blunt, tough as a nut and a hell of a record that he can directly position against McCain. I have been aware of him before he got that Senate seat because of his prominence in the understanding & promotion of the whole Ulster Scots heritage of large swathes of the US.
As a VP though, maybe too early but just an odd running mate for Obama, too different, and Webb can go off on one. I was also never sure he and Obama genuinely shared a huge amount of ground.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/07/scotland.labour?commentid=a6871c1b-b0fe-4c9a-a4e2-a54d852814de
or
http://tinyurl.com/5w7jmd
Personal insight into Glasgow East voters’ intentions.
13. Who would your top tier be, at this point?
11 Mike - a few days ago Matthew Partridge posted about a spread-betting firm apparently offering a market in Electoral College votes. I filled in all the forms online and was promised a confirmatory email, since when I have heard absolutely nothing.
It’s high time both Sporting and IG started making a market in EC votes.
20. BrianSJ - could it be “infrequentallele” is an SNP plant?
re 13 Thank you but don’t worry. I still have my 50/1 bet on a guy called Obama becoming president.
24 Really? Well you certainly kept that one to yourself.
24. Are you going to live off that for the rest of your life :S
Hi Socrates, hope all has been well here while I’ve been away occupied with more mundane matters. It’s funny you should mention how I could have, or should have, played this on the betting markets to make money since I actually never bet on anything! I’m just in this for the politics. If I actually placed bets, it would probably warp my judgment.
My top tier hasn’t really changed much in spite of the shifting winds of late. My two big no-nos have been Webb and Clinton all along. As far as my favorites (as I discussed several weeks, or maybe a few months, ago), that would still be folks like Richardson, Warner, or a dark horse like Bredesen. I have been so occupied with other matters lately that I haven’t been able to keep tabs on events as closely as I would like, although I hope to be able to get back up to speed over the next week or so. To my mind, Richardson and Warner are formidable choices, with trendy options like Sibelius and Kaine within the realm of possibility but unlikely. I think some cheap dark horse bets would be good for some solid but more obscure Democrats like Bredesen or Easley or, a personal favorite of mine, Bayh (if Obama could get over his prominent backing of Clinton).
I have to give you a caveat, though, which is that I haven’t been able to check the latest statements from any of these possibilities. I’m just telling you based on my evaluations of the individuals in light of what Obama should be looking for in a VP.
It is quite logical that women who abort their unborn children would statistically have fewer children as they have less maternal instinct.
As we dont have the stats, you may disagree. However, I think we can all agree that Labour (&LibDem) voters are much more embrace abortion as an issue of ‘choice’ than Conservatives.
Yep. Could be a plant. Didn’t give his ID card number.
24- I hope you’ll invite us all to your new palacial estate sometime early next year.
27. You are a GOP man aint ya?
What’s the story with Mitt and the VP bid?
18. Schweitzer’s the guy I tout at every opportunity. I think I’ve developed a bit of a man-crush on him!
28 That’s not only distasteful and presumtuous, but also happens to be wrong.
Abortions are weighted towards those who frequently have unprotected sex (who also tend to have multiple children by the age of 30), those who already have many children (and cannot cope with any more), and those who are very young (and feel unready, but have children later in life).
Women who are adamant that they do not want children tend to be weathier, well-educated, and most careful about use of contraception. Abortions amongst this group are comparitively rare.
27. Yep, I’ve been good thanks, and it’s good to have you back. What are the problems with Kaine? Although logic seems to say “yes”, there’s something that doesn’t feel right about him as a choice, and I can’t work out what it is. Sebelius for me is the reverse. There are a hundred reasons why it would be mad to pick her, but she just seems to fit somehow.
What did you make of the list that was circulated?
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/06/10/1127710.aspx
I can’t work out if it was deliberate leak to draw attention away from the real choices, or if they accepted there was inevitably going to be publicity if they properly vetted the choices. They wouldn’t want a Thomas Eagleton mistake to derail their campaign after all. The fact that there were some bizarre names in there suggests it was the latter, and that they threw in others to stop discussion of names like Warner, Nunn and Bayh. What do you make of the cryptic names left off? Richardson and Bloomberg are the ones that spring to mind. Who asked for those names not to be mentioned? The campaign or an external tip-off?
33. Congratulations on your diary being frequently touted on Kos, by the way!
33. What is the Vatican up to with these Anglican clergy talks? Also I presume Cameron would not have been allowed near the doorstep of a Catholic church in Glasgow without the Ok of the Red hats. Is that significant.
27- Yokel, I’m usually a GOP supporter but I find the Republican VP slot a much tougher one to grapple with than the Democratic choice, both because of the options available to McCain and McCain himself. Mitt Romney as a VP choice seem a bit strange to me because he polled so poorly nationally as a presidential candidate and because it’s tough to see how he adds more than he takes away as a VP. With him as VP, you’d still be left with the Mormon issue and the stink of failure from the primaries. It’s much easier to see McCain wanting to pick a fresh face like Pawlenty to spice up his underdog bid, but then again, I expect McCain’s choice to be a very personal one while I expect Obama’s choice to be a more calculated one.
35 - Cheers! Two in two days - I’m feeling a little-lightheaded!!
I’m not a Democrat (not being American) and the Kossacks are a little to the Left of me (!) but I think it is a fascinating community, and the site is brilliant at what it does. I think the (Left-wing) blogosphere (maybe the Right as well) has to take note and see how much can actually be accomplished online.
If, at the same time, I can get some of those millions interested in the UK blogosphere (especially pb.com!) then even better!
o/t The amusing and irrelevant Michael Crick in Glasgow east on Newsnight.
I am hoping that he will do another encounter like the Jefferey Archer one on Alex Salmond!
Only thing that might put the kibosh on it is i doubt there are green spaces in glasgow and can they find some where that does not have junkies shoting up or dead bodies floating past in canals?
37. The Mittys are certainly pushing their man very hard indeed and it seems more pushing, some of it very overt indeed, is being done behind Romney than any of the other known options.
Whether McCain wishes to buy is another story.
39 - Martin, that is not nice at all.
40. If they did accept it would show desperateness on behalf of the campaign. The only reason they would take him is because they need his money, or feel they need his name to take Michigan.
34- Socrates, I don’t know anything about Gen. Jones, which seems to me like a bit of a problem. Picking him would seem to scream, “I DON’T KNOW ANYTHING ABOUT FIGHTING WARS BUT DON’T WORRY, I’VE GOT THIS GUY!”
Kaine is a bit too inexperienced in higher office to my liking (only just over two years as governor) and a bit too far to the left to provide some semblance of balance to the Obama ticket. Not that any of that will necessarily stop Obama from picking him, but these elements at least make him a less than ideal choice.
Sibelius looks nice on paper and is definitely great for Obama’s camp to toss around publicly to prove to the base that Obama isn’t against women just because he is (or was) against Hillary. While she’s been surprisingly popular as governor of a solidly conservative state, she may just not have the tools and compatibility with Obama to put her over the finish line. Again, I wouldn’t rule her out, but see her as an unlikely choice.
Nunn is a laughable choice and I don’t know why it receives such prominent mention.
Biden would be almost as unimaginable a choice as Nunn, although for different reasons (Biden is one of the biggest jerks in Washington and I can’t imagine why the Obama campaign would see him as a great choice).
As for why other names are on the list or left off, I just don’t know what would account for it. But just note that such lists are what the campaign wants us to hear, which often has nothing to do with reality. I think it’s better to analyse the possible choices on their own merits rather than get stirred up over “lists.”
38. Just bookmarked your diary, Morus. Hope you update it regularly, I’ve always found you one of the most thought provoking posters on here.
42. The question is who is pushing Mitt. Is it purely his former primary backers or a somewhat bigger slice of the GOP establishment.
43. I’ve only been strong on Nunn because I have a good source that assures me he’s being given attention.
43.S and S - why is Nunn “laughable”?
42. Not a huge amount different on the name front as choosing Warner for example. Anyway Mitt is doing plenty of fundraising, he wouldnt be sticking tons of his own cash in. Theres more to the Mitt push.
43. Nunns position perhaps is because of the names that mention him, such as Webb. I’ve seen less of his name amongst the popular short lists and journalistic speculation.
48. I’d give greater weight to the names rather than the popular speculation I should add.,
36. The Taigs were ‘avin a laff at Cammo. They offered him St. Jude’s - the patron saint of lost causes…
48. Yes, “money” refers to both his own and his huge connections in the business and consultancy worlds. (Incidentally, it’s big business worried about their control over the GOP, after having such free reign recently, that are pushing him.) It’s not his name that’s important as such, but his father’s, who is a real hallowed hero in Michigan.
46, 47- Nunn is a member of a highly endangered, sometimes even thought to be extinct, species: the conservative southern Democrat. He’s not as conservative as Zell Miller, but he certainly isn’t a modern “progressive” either. He departed from the Senate with the last of the southern conservative Democratic senators in the mid-1990’s. His traditional southern conservative instincts, his age (soon to turn 70), and his seeming to be a creature of a bygone political era would make for a bizarre partnership on the Democratic ticket.
50. I don’t think anyone thinks the Tories might “win”. But this is Glasgow they didn’t even do funny towards the Tories until now. If the Catholic Church is thawing relations it might mean something not for the particular seat but the Country as Morus has written.
52. He’s come quite left on social values in his old age, I believe.
33 Abortion has little to do with taste. It is a matter of choice, remember?
Clearly anyone committing an abortion has less maternal instinct. Otherwise they would want to let their baby live. Common sense really.
Just as people who like pies and lager are more likely to be fat. Fat people are also more likely to vote Labour.
Abortion is a flagship Labour policy.
You shouldn’t be ashamed of it. If you are pro-abortion and the termination of unborn babies as policy, admit it.
Why the denial?
Test
50. St Jude. Not me Peter from Putney!
By the way, off topic, I’m contemplating a serious bet on Leeds to win their football division next season. Thoughts Peter, or anyone?
56. And there you are!
54- Nunn has probably drifted with the times and with his party on many matters, but I still can’t see it. His roots are still southern and conservative, and his resurrection from the political netherworld would seem odd. Nobody has seen this guy in ten years. Even though he is 69, many people would have the impression that he’s more like 79. I don’t think Obama is looking for his own Dick Cheney, and Nunn wouldn’t even suit Obama the way Cheney suited Bush.
55: Al Fresco, do you read what other people say or just your own stuff? Anyone who’s paid any atteniton to recent threads will find the suggestion that Morus is a pro-abortion Labour supporter quite entertaining.
Hi stjohn, you’ve been away for a while - I’ve just had about six unsuccessful attempts at posting an innocuous B&B ad, which has evidently become caught in the censor trap for some unknown reason.
I’m just about to have an in depth look at the forthcoming footy season and I’ll get back to you in the next couple of days.
I would have thought Leeds are an excellent pick, but presumably the price is short?
Here is a recent Newsweek article promoting Nunn’s case
http://www.newsweek.com/id/144610
60. Nick. I see you have so far ducked my invitation to express a view on Glasgow East! I haven’t had a bet yet but if you see reasons to be hopeful then I could see myself backing Labour? Last time I looked there was 5/6 available with Paddy Power. Worth a punt?
For any of you still awake and interested, both Newsnight and Newsnight Scotland featured Glasgow East.
Firstly it interviewed an ASian shopkeeper who showed his Labour party membership card. His shop contained leaflets for the LibDems and he said he hoped Labour would lose!
On Newsnight Scotland we had a debate featuring Alex Salmond and David Cairns the Scotland Office Minister of State. Cairns said there had been no attempt by GB to persuade several leading figures to stand even though earlier in the day Steven Purcell the Glasgow Labour leader confirmed GB had asked him to stand.
They had a panel of reps from all the other Scottish parties. Everyone agreed Labour is going to lose the seat and most said the SNP will win. Indeed Tommy Sheridan said he hoped the SNP would win. That could be worth a fair number of votes to the SNP.
The same LibDem MP, the man from Edinburgh West again claimed the LibDems will win the seat. Jackson Carlaw the Tory MSP said the voters of Glasgow East would win because they will be at the centre of the nation’s attention for the first time ever. He confirmed the Tories are fighting to increase their vote.
Labour have said Margaret Curran will not stand down in Glasgow Baillieston if she wins the by-election so already everyone is accusing them of hypocracy given the invective aimed at Alex Salmond whose electors knew he intended to stay on until 2010 and still elected him.
This by-election is going to get dirty and apart from perhaps the LibDems, it is going to be everyone gunning for Labour. I think the LibDems are going to direct most of their thunder at the SNP.
61. Peter. 7/2 when I last looked. I am waiting for “the word” from a serious Leeds fan before I make a play.
someone on the tory team accidentally booked the wrong place - they actually meant to hire this place…..http://www.saintjudes.com/
i see the prejudices are in full flow tonight, from junkies and dead bodies littering the post apocalyptical Glasgow wasteland to descriptions of catholics as ‘taigs’………
some interesting stuff on newsnight - someone must tell labour that the snp actually have independence as their raison d’etre; margaret curran was exclaiming that they ‘desire the break up of the uk’ as if it was some kind of dirty secret…….
salmond also seemed to outline the snp’s pitch in glasgow east; effectively that an snp victory will force brown to take action on fuel costs…..can see potential traction, in that he is offering voters a tangible prize, whether or not it would actually come to fruition……a smart move, offering an effective electoral bribe that he wouldn’t have to pay out…..
The Tory Troll is reporting about another of Boris’s Deputies in trouble, this time with expenses. Don’t know if the MSM have picked up on it.
http://torytroll.blogspot.com/2008/07/boris-johnsons-other-value-for-money.html
60 Well, it was phrased as a question - but he didnt answer.
So, we all agree, women who abort their babies have less maternal instinct - and fewer children. People who eat the pies are fat and vote Labour.
Are Leeds likely to go bust again next season? Isn’t it fairly cash negative to be in (old money) division 3? I would have thought Leicester City, for example, will be lucky to survive financially
Perhaps if the next government could offer free abortions to Labour voters.
Should be a vote winner for BOTH Labour and Conservative voters
Completely O/T, and probably not of interest to too many other PB’ers (!), but the coalition government has collapsed in Austria, with new elections expected in September.
Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer of the Social Democrats, (the Austrian Gordon Brown?) will not even lead his party into the election.
IMHO I think a “black-blue” People’s Party - Freedom Party govt will result.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7493842.stm
63. Certainly would be at evens.
Labour are really going to have to be in big trouble to lose, by election or not.
71. I wonder what an election campaign would be like in one of the modern world’s most personality-less countries.
Ot
Peter from Putney,
Did you hear about the knifing on Putney Heath?
69 I think a serious number of clubs face extinction over the next year as the “credit crunch” really starts to bite. This is precisely an area of discretionary expenditure where one can readily save hundreds of pounds a year and if it really comes down to a choice of watching your local side or fuelling the car, then I’m afraid it’s no contest. Expect the fall in attendances which was evident last year, even in the Premiership, to accelerate more than somewhat. If the clubs continue paying silly money to the players, then mega problems lie ahead.
68 - As Nick has pointed out, I think I’ve made about as clear over the last week as possible that I am neither a Labour supporter, or in favour of abortions.
I pulled you up on your assertion because it was wrong, for the reasons I gave at 33.
This is what drives me mad about many pro-lifers - they are too eager to assume the worst of people who have abortions, without recognising the complexity of why people do so. Sometimes it is unregretted choice, other times confusion and fear, other times forced, other times regrettably pragmatic - to tar any woman who has had an abortion as being ‘clearly less maternal’ is pernicious, and smacks of the worst type of sanctimony that often leads me to wonder if people really are pro-life, or whether they just enjoy being moralistic.
The pro-life lobby would be far more effective and far-better supported if it could remember how to be truly compassionate and understanding, rather than revelling in the divisiveness of the issue.
64 - John Barrett did not say on Newsnight that the Lib Dems would win or indeed that they would be gunning for the SNP.
He said that the Labour vote was evaporating and that there was everything to play for in terms of who was going to pick it up. It’s actually pretty close to what Cameron said.
36 - Sorry I missed you, Punter. I’ve heard very little from where I am sat to add to this wonderful post on the matter by His Grace
http://archbishop-cranmer.blogspot.com/2008/07/anglican-bishops-in-secret-vatican.html
74 No I didn’t MTF and Putney/Wimbledon are certainly not high crime areas. With so many such crimes all over London over recent months, some at least seem to have a copycat aspect.
Just to think, you and I could have been having a quiet pint in The Green Man.
76…..very well put
44 - The feeling is mutual, G!
60 - Cheers, Nick, much appreciated.
O/T re: Margaret Curran remaining an MSP:
“Nope. She has said she will stay on as an MSP until 2011. Highly hypocritical position given all they have said about Alex Salmond….
Interestingly all the press releases on the Labour website regarding Salmond’s dual mandate appears to have disappeared…..”
Typical from NuLabour!
75 - I was thinking the same, but then again I’m not so sure that some people regard football spending as ‘discretionary’!
79 not much info but here is the link not sure where Wildcroft road is, is the road down to the Telegraph Inn?>??
http://www.yourlocalguardian.co.uk/news/wandsworthnews/display.var.2381418.0.man_stabbed_on_putney_heath.php
66. “i see the prejudices are in full flow tonight, from junkies and dead bodies littering the post apocalyptical Glasgow wasteland to descriptions of catholics as ‘taigs’………”
There’s no need to be uber-sensitive. As everyone should know, I’m 3/4 “Taig” myself..
btw, looking at previous BEs, I estimate the SNP only have about a 27% chance of taking the Glasgow East. The odds on the SNP are way too short to be of any use.
84 Thanks for that. Unless I’m very much mistaken, that bus stop looks very adjacent to the Green Man - the red brick paving also suggests it’s on that main thoroughfare, leading on to Putney Hill/Putney High Street, but I could be wrong.
Tories take center ground and place Individualism at forefront:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4290298.ece
85. The Tories are intent on introducing a post PC society - I am at the cutting edge of this new dawn!
88. Boris in the vanguard, eh?
This an interesting point on why the Scottish Tories died:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progressive_Party_%28UK%29
62- I consider Mr. Alter to be a lightweight and don’t give his analysis a lot of credence, but it is nonetheless interesting that he’s such a fan of former Senator Nunn. I see the principle flaws in his analysis being his suggestion that there are no other obvious helpful choices available to Obama (Richardson, Warner, Bayh, etc.?) and that Nunn’s pro (foreign policy expertise) outweighs his cons (conservatism, 12 years in retirement, colorless personality, Cheney analogy, etc.). Also, a Nunn choice effectively neutralises one of the biggest weapons the Democrats are using against McCain: age. Nunn seems like a decent guy, but Obama won’t select him as VP.
91- sorry, “principal”
89. Gadzooks - Yes! With his watermelon smile!
85. fair enough, it’s been a long day…..
re. the odds: i agree that the snp are way to short, and that current value is definitely with labour…..however, i’m not sure how much of an indicator previous BEs give….i think this one does have the potential to be unique, in that within the current scottish climate i don’t see people having any great ideological baggage in switching from labour to snp…..further, many BEs have seen swings that are effectively protest votes, however in this case i think the snp will generally be seen as an alternative rather than a protest vote, which is an important distinction…….
84. I live right by there. that’s the bus stop by the green man, where you catch a bus before it turns left on to Putney Hill. there are a few dodgy estates amongst the greenery round there and night buses travelling from clapham and peckham to putney heath. I like a night out but i find walking down back from that bus stop not the safest.
Very interesting information on the glasgow economy:
Glasgow has the largest economy in Scotland and is at the hub of the metropolitan area of West Central Scotland. The city also has the third largest GDP Per Capita in the UK, after London and Edinburgh.[29] The city itself sustains more than 410,000 jobs in over 12,000 companies. Over 153,000 jobs have been created in the city since 2000 - a growth rate of 32%.[30] Glasgow’s annual economic growth rate of 4.4% is now second only to that of London.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow
This must mean municiple socialism has caused the poverty.
86,95 JJ - Snap! I hadn’t realised that you are quite a close neighbour of mine!
From the Labour candidate at Glasgow East: “Let me be clear: Labour’s fightback starts right here, right now. I will fight and fight again for the people of the East End so here, on the steps of the selection meeting, I publicly challenge Councillor Mason to a live television debate – any time, any place.”
The usual rule is that the challenger asks for a TV debate and the incumbent finds a lot of excuses for not turning up. - Do Labour think they are behind already?
96…….please enlighten us
97. yeah been living there 6 months or so. I like it as it has a nice mix of quiet greenery and the city is pretty accessible….marred only by th occasional stabbing
What has Max Moseley done to upset the Daily Mail?
http://www.politicshome.com/#1142
99. The city also has the third largest GDP Per Capita in the UK, after London and Edinburgh.
So why all the hand-wringing about how bad it is up there? The Poverty etc. Glasgow sounds to have better prospects than Liverpool or Newcastle. Just a point!
98. There is no-incumbant that’s why there is a by-election
They are on level terms, why not have a debate - what have the SNP got to lose.
To be fair the LD’s and Tories are by-standers in this by-election.
100 JJ - MTF and I intend to meet up in the aforementioned local hostelry (he used to live in these parts) and when we do you must come along. Adam, who is the agent for the Labour PPC for Putney has also threatened to come join us with, if possible, with Nick Palmer.
We’ve almost got enough for our very own SW London PB.com bunfight.
Err, Labour are the incumbent party in Glasgow East. Watch this space. I bet £1 to 1p that the debate wont go ahead - Labour wont allow the other candidates to take part, will be the likely excuse.
105. You are right to say Labour are the incumbant party but their is no sitting incumbant! You may also be right about the debate, the SNP should go for it as they have nothing to lose. Labour will calculate that the SNP will chicken it.
Mind you i do not know what the SNP candidate is like on the telly, so maybe this is why Labour have challanged? The MSP will be used to TV coverage etc. Interesting though as due to the relative size of population of scotland the BBC could get away with hosting a debate.
104. excellent. always interested in a bit of lively debate. e-mail me at Nuristan81@yahoo.co.uk
I will try to come unarmed
102….i think it is yourself who is conjuring images of some hellhole, not any of the residents! the gdp figures do not, though, give a guide as to the poverty or lack thereof of the populace, do they?; i think they will be heavily influenced by the fact that London, Edinburgh and Glasgow are the UK’s three main financial centres…..figures for average income would probably be more relevant……..on the central point, as i said i don’t see anybody hand wringing about how bad it is in glasgow in general; merely that this particular area suffers from some particularly bad social problems…..
107 Will do, but unlikely to be for a while with hols intervening. Anyway, I’ll make a note of your email address.
109. no worries…got hols pending as well. look forward to it
108. Could be your right, I think that maybe i have succombed to the general myth of the place.
My point was, not that London and Edinborough do not have pockets of depravation but why is glasgow always presented (on Newsnight for instance a couple of hours ago) as one of the most economically deprived areas in the UK? Sure it has its problems but there are junkies, criminals and murders in other cities too. Look at London it is a stabbing everyday or so it seems - London has its poverty too.
It seems to me that the media report Scotland and imparticularly Glasgow as some sort of backward economic and social city. When on closer inspection it is not the case so it would seem!
111. i think the portrayal stems from the fact that, while large parts of glasgow do not suffer from these problems, the areas that do suffer them on a pretty extreme scale, and the associated health issues are amongst the worst around………
it is pleasing to note that your own perceptions have changed so much in the space of this thread; you should come up for a beer sometime, we’ll guarantee your safety!!
stjohn - I did reply on the other thread, thinking this one was more for US comments. But it wasn’t exactly an illuminating reply - I said I hadn’t a clue about the likely outcome!
I wonder if McCain chosing a woman will woo over Clinton voters that are hessitant to vote for Obama?
114. McCain’s position on abortion means pro-choice women will be strongly Obama. Pro-life women would go into his camp regardless.
The reason for Webb’s drop-out, heavy vetting:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/obamas_team_begins_to_vet.php
114- If McCain wants to woo Clinton voters who aren’t sure they’re ready to vote Obama, he should pick someone who targets the blue collar crowd rather than a woman per se. Such a choice could be someone like Huckabee.
Evening all.
On Leeds. We have off-loaded a couple of fringe players and signed Sheehan on a permanent deal from Leicester.
I think anything around 3/1 is a good bet on us to win the title but any shorter than than and I would keep my pennies to myself. A lot depends on how Leicester cope with coming down. If they have managed to cut their cloth well and start well they could be dangerous.
Evens for Leeds to be promoted looks like a much better bet. I’d be surprised (as much as any Leeds fan can be surprised any more) if we failed to get out of that division now that the novelty of playing us has worn off a little and we’re battle hardened. Ialso don’t see a Leeds legend like Gary McAllister doing the dirty like scumbag Wise halfway through the season and taking a well-paid non-job somewhere.
69. Icarus: Isn’t it fairly cash negative to be in (old money) division 3?
Depends if you’re still paying Division Two wages…
I think we should have a Suggest A Nickname For Harriet Harman Competition.
Ms Harperson
Ha-Ha
HaHa
The Harridan
Madame Ha*
* (not to be confused with Jiang Qing)
“The Tory leader said he would not shirk from discussing public morality ”
So, will he now haul all those Euro MPs over the coals for (perfectly legally!!) stuffing all those funds into their families’ pockets through limited companies? Will he have a word with the Meridan nanny goat about Nannygate?
101.
“What has Max Moseley done to upset the Daily Mail?”
Didn’t invite the editor of the paper with the famous record/history of Nazi-backing to his party?
67.
“another of Boris’s Deputies in trouble”
The technical term for Ian Clement seems to be a ‘grasping git’ - he will no doubt go far: could be a Tory Euro-MP in the making, a nanny-hire entrepeneur or even the next Speaker but three.
Sebelius is still an outsider. As Obama’s campaign as shown, he regards himself as a front-runner and thinks that McCain will have to do something radical to beat him. Obama is taking away any reason to vote for McCain this time around. Taking a woman as Veep just does not make any sense. My friends on capitol hill are touting Bayh- and it makes serious amounnts of sense:
i) ObamaBayh2008.com already redirects to the Democrats website;
ii) Midwest is where this is won or lost.
iii) Indiana is still a swing state
iv) Bayh has executive experience
v) Bayh has foreign policy experience
vi) Bayh was a Hillary supporter
vii) Bayh is seen as a moderate who appeals to Republicans
viii) Bayh is still good-looking enough to double-down on ‘fresh’.
The more conventional choices should now be considered as Biden and Nunn, in that order.
It’s funny, the extract you’ve quoted from Webb sounds distinctly like a snub. But in fact, he’s probably just eliminating the wriggle-room.