Who’ll remember what this was supposed to be about?
July 8th, 2008
Will Davis think that it’s all been worth it on Friday?
When David Davis first made his extraordinary move to resign his seat and force a by-election I asked whether many people would remember the original cause on polling day. Well that is now only two days away and all the political focus is on another election several hundred miles away in Glasgow.
It’s hard to see Davis being beaten in Haltemprice and Howden but turnout is likely to be considerably down on the general election and the former shadow home secretary might get a good majority in terms of percentages but the reduced numbers voting will take the gloss off the victory.
There are two main betting markets - what share of the vote Davis will get and who will come top of the poll excluding Davis? The latter has been made more interesting by the bookmaker, William Hill, offering each way bets.
My main bet is on Jill Saward who I got at 8/1 each way. Some one the site saw the value much earlier and placed wagers at 33/1. This morning’s price is 5/1.
I still think I’m in with a good chance of winning at least the each-way part of the bet. For the campaigner on behalf of the victims of crime this is very much a personal campaign and my sense is that she has a strongish appeal to women voters. She’s probably had more publicity than any of the 25 “others” in the race and it was interesting that when BBC News last looked at the by-election it was to her that they spoke to second. There was also a big piece in the Mirror by John Cruddas.
The Greens are obviously hopefully of getting the runner-up slot and might just pip Saward to the post.
William Hill tell me that surprisingly betting on this by election, even with their market, has been quiet. Maybe it’s just because unlike Crewe or Glasgow East, the outcome will have zilch impact on the national scene. The decision by Labour to stand aside has had the desired effect and any Davis “victory” is likely to look an irrelevance. The Westminster village view of his action has been proved right.
After Friday will anybody remember what all this was about and will Davis return to the Shadow Cabinet? Cameron might make him wait.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Oh, Davis will have to be left to ’sweat it out’ for a bit, but he’ll be in Dave’s 2010 cabinet, I have little doubt.
Never forget that Davis has already got exactly what he wanted.
That’s a bit harsh! It was electrifying when he resigned, and a politician actually standing up for what he believes in is extremely memorable for its rarity.
I think the media giving it so little coverage has been shameful, a real debate aout this whole subject is overdue.
Has there been much debate local to H&H?
Davis will be the Home Sec in Camerons government - Cameron has nothing to fear from Davis re the leadership and everything to gain from having him in the right job.
He may not have gone the conventional route but the tories have gained from his move and Labour have been made to look as stupid and cowardly as ever.
O/T - but you have to wonder what they said about Gordon!
“The White House has apologised to Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi for a briefing describing him as a political “amateur” who is “hated by many”.
The “insulting” biography was included in a press kit distributed to reporters travelling with President George W Bush to a meeting of world leaders in Japan.”
Or perhaps that was Gordon’s!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7495754.stm
5. Davis needed a quiet news week - unfortunately the Uk is going bust…
Top 10 losers
value change %
Moneysupermarket.com Group
57.00 30.75 35.04
Bradford & Bingley
32.00 10.00 23.81
TAYLOR WIMPEY
23.50 3.75 13.76
Alliance & Leicester
215.50 33.00 13.28
Partygaming
219.25 29.00 11.68
Savills
191.00 24.25 11.27
Trinity Mirror
74.75 9.25 11.01
Hardy Oil & Gas
653.00 62.00 8.67
HARGREAVES (WI)
132.50 11.00 7.67
Mapeley Ld
972.00 78.00 7.43
What will people remember?
Another Tory byelection victory.
Brown bottled a debate on British liberties.
For a tough, broken-nosed, ex-SAS reservist, scourge of Labour Home Secretaries, Davis is a bit of a flake.
1. Spot on.
Mike, your bestbetting section is missing Glasgow East:
http://politicalbetting.bestbetting.com/specials/politics/
Best Glas E prices just now:
Bookies:
Lab 83/100 (Ladbrokes)
SNP 11/10 (William Hill)
Con 100/1 (Ladbrokes)
LD 100/1 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power)
Betfair:
Lab 1.94
SNP 2.02
Con 27
LD 36
Any Other 180
I think a Davis vote of 75-90 percent likely.
Turnout may not slump as much as you suggest, some might like the idea of taking part in a free hit against the government?
Has the Labour party being co-vertly supporting the *established* challanger you suggest. After all they used a proxy in Martin Bell’s election in 1997? Maybe the Tories and LD’s should adopt a similar tactic in a Labour MP’s seat that the incumbant seeking re-election has questionable behavoir? For instance Ed Balls if the inquiry into the housing costs does not give him a clean sheet?
Caption for the picture:
DC - Someone’s nicked the tomatoes out of my greenhouse.
DD - I know who but I’m not saying (and I got the CCTV turned off).
For a moment I thought Gord was going hungry.
How can our Prime Minister be taken seriously???
From the Daily Telegraph
G8 summit: Gordon Brown has eight-course dinner before food crisis talks
By Robert Winnett, Deputy Political Editor in Hokkaido, Japan
Gordon Brown and his fellow world leaders have sparked outrage after it was disclosed they enjoyed a six-course lunch followed by an eight-course dinner at the G8 summit where the global food crisis tops the agenda.
“Gerald Holtham will chair a commission to consider the way Wales is funded through the Barnett formula.
Ministers hope the expert panel can play a crucial role in persuading the treasury that Wales should receive a bigger share of UK public spending.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/wales_politics/7495463.stm
Dame Manningham-Buller, ex head of MI5, tells the House of Lords she cannot support 42 days - BBC news flash (”more soon”).
That won’t hurt DD!
5. There have been thousands of redundancies anounced in Yorkshire in the last week - another traunch announced today, ranging from construction to Financial Services. The national picture is bleak but people are being hit now by job losses on an increasing scale.
14. Is Bingley in Yorkshire ? Bradford certainly is..
13 — Just as Stella Rimmington doesn’t support ID cards.
13 Nobody actually supports 42 days. “vote for 42 days or get Miliband by Thursday”…… ” I voted for 42 days to save Gordon”.
Labour just playing kiddie politics with security issues. Yet another shameful episode in the death of this odious government.
I supported the principle of the resignation, but am worried it has sort of decended into farce. To my mind, it would have been better if he hadn’t stopped Clegg running a candidate, because then Labour wouldn’t have felt so exposed, and might have run, and Davis could have at least looked braver and gotten the debate he wanted.
It’s not been as glorious as I think he hoped, and the other by-elections have sort of stolen the limelight at just the wrong time, but he will not be too dissatisfied - this was an include-in-the-obituary episode, and he probably hasn’t lost out on anything. If there is a leadership election in the next decade, I think this plays to his advantage…
O/T Martin Coxall on the last thread - string theory is pseudo science? I’m not a scientist, so didn’t realise - it sounded at least as plausible as anything else!
It’s an interesting idea at least, and the book I recommended to Socrates has excellent explanations of QM and general relativity designed for the clever lay-person wanting a challenge. That alone makes it worth reading, even if you don’t go for the string theory bit. On string theory - I will look up some critiques of it and get back to you when I know enough to have a discussion about it!
15. Yes, Not B & B though.
It was Ventura - A call centre apparently a major contract has caused a change in business model i.e. Job losses IIRC it was an energy company! Lean times for them - don’t you know?!!
Seen the busiest 24 hours on the US election for a while at ladbrokes. Obama now 2/5 from 1/2, which I guess has been partly driven by Matthew Engel’s uninformative piece in the Racing Post today.
19. Oh well B&B to follow shortly, followed by A&L.
20. Uninformative or uninformed?
18
String theory is not pseudo science. Whether it is physics or maths is another matter - as is whether there is any difference between the two.
20 I read and commented on it in the previous thread, Shadsy. It was, shall we say, very sub-PB standard.
17. Labour just playing kiddie politics with security issues.
Yes just like the food stock piles being empty, no food to eat in a national emergency such as an attack on Sellerfield and subsequent Nuclear fallout.
No Petrol or Energy “Stock piles” either for that matter -What if Iran is hit by Isreali forces in co-ordination with US back-up or an attack by the US. itself?
No leyway in the national budget for rectifying these gaps in defences either. Now the US have pulled out all nuclear forces from Britain as I informed all yesterday on here.
Labour soft on National Security issues. 42 Days was a sticking plaster applied to a healthy body - pointless.
367 on previous thread. (energy insecurity/Thatcher)
a lot of Thatcher’s legacy is starting to look a bit dodgy now isn’t it - I wonder how she will be remembered in a few years’ time once the emotions have died down?
certainly the last 20 years will be considered an era of disastrously insufficient financial regulation.
Shadsy - why is Glasgow East not up today on Ladbrokes?
18, 23. I think Martin is taking some pleasure in dismissing any theory that isn’t mentioned on the back cover of “quantum theory for dummies”
Maybe Darling and the B of E Govonor will be calling a meeting after the markets close this evening……
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7495042.stm
This was the other job loss announced today:
http://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/news/Yorkshire-housebuilder-Persimmon-confirms-1100.4264617.jp
29. The Beeb failed to mention other brokers which valued B&B at -14p.
B&B, NRK and others fuelled Gordo’s boom on credit - looks like they are getting their just rewards in advance of the great leader who will hold out until 2010 as there is no AGM (GE) planned…
No commentary on share prices from Gabble today then?
@23:
String theory is 100% pseudoscience. It has made, in twenty years of funding, not *ONE* single testable prediction.
String theory is as much science as astrology or homeopathy. It may well be mathematically self-consistent, but absent any predictive power, its worth as science is non-existent.
String theory is a failure. Anyone relying on it to pay their pension should move on while they still can.
@28:
No, Ed. I take pleasure in dismissing any theory that isn’t falsifiable. String theory, anthropogenic global warming, natural selection…
26. No, I would not agree with that! Financial Services have been fairly stable apart from Northern Rock, which was caused by Brown’s framework. Other companies such as Barrings and BCCI were still problems but dealt with far more effiently: The taxpayer did not have to bail those out for XX Billion.
Thatcher certainly made mistakes with the coal industry but trade union reforms were benificial. Like all things moderation and balance is required.
In terms of energy prices and competion maybe the government should look again at energy supplier monoplies?
The smiling guy on the right is saying: “Mine may be distinguishedly grey but I’ve more of it and in five years’ time I’ll have a lot more of it!”
On topic - Davis has blown his career on a damp squib. He got his 15 minutes then everyone forgot about it.
The big winner is David Cameron - people associated the Tories with a bold move and Cameron shifted an old rival and a man he really doesn’t like into obscurity and the historical footnotes. People here say Davis will be in the cabinet if the Tories win. I disagree. Cameron would have to bring him back as Home Secretary or better. Why bother? He doesn’t like or trust Davis and doesn’t want him at top table. Davis is quite evidently the sort of bloke who would be looking to resign from Cameron’s cabinet causing maximum damage at the worst possible moment just to buy himself column inches and it would be daft to reinstate him.
27. It should be. I can see it. Still 5/6 each of two.
37. Thanks - then the feed to “best betting” is not working today.
34 - “In terms of energy prices and competion maybe the government should look again at energy supplier monoplies?”
Recent price changes are pretty good evidence that energy markets are reasonably competitive. If they were uncompetitive, prices would already be at monopoly levels and you would expect little or no response from consumer prices to recent changes in commodity prices.
36. DD might go to the cabinet office, agriculture or Culture media and sports?
‘Bring back TV debates for Glasgow East by-election’
“If this by-election is so important, then why is the media so resistant to bring fairer coverage? My guess is that the media think that the by-election process is unimportant - all that matters is the result, who wins and who loses (not just in the contest).”
http://tartanhero.blogspot.com/2008/07/bring-back-tv-debates-for-glasgow-east.html
12 - The Welsh are after more money too? Bloody Norah. More expense.
15 - Yes, Bingley’s in Yorkshire. Just outside Bradford. Nice place.
23 - The difference between maths and physics is that physics concerns the laws by which this universe works; maths concerns the laws by which any universe works.
26 - the problem wasn’t insufficient regulation. The gamble was there to be taken, and plenty of people took it. I certainly can’t agree that we need more regulation - that would just lead to the bad times without the good. We just need governments to understand that the bubble will burst no matter how convinced they are of their own brilliance.
39. You can still tighten markets further
34. I think after this recession there will be a wave of increased regulation, certainly in the US they have already started. Some of those nice off-balance-sheet leveraged derivatives will be things of the past.
33. now I know you’re kidding
36.
“people associated the Tories with a bold move.”
Which people will be giving the question a moment’s thought?
The thought on people’s minds right now is: “The economy’s down the pan and who’s to say that the opposition wouldn’t flush it down even faster?”
@45:
I never kid when it comes to Karl Popper.
Maybe the real reason for the US. Nuclear weapon removal is balance: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7494996.stm
This would make sense as it is a typical stratigic move to show to the commies….. I mean russioans that Nato don’t want to attack.
40 - Davis appears to have indicated he would tell Cameron where to shove the Ministry of Fun or whatever other pointless non-job he is offering. No, Davis will require Home Office or better.
43 - You wouldn’t be talking about tightening markets - quite the reverse. It would essentially be a windfall tax. Energy companies often do well from increases in market prices of commodities simply because they are sat on reserves of such commodities. Just as if you own a sweet factory you benefit from increased demand for sweets - it doesn’t imply you have a monopoly. Now there may be a case for a windfall tax but don’t pretend it is a market solution. Indeed, it would be likely to raise expected consumer prices compared with what they would be should commodity prices fall as energy companies will need to reflect the fact that any profits from future rises would be at risk of being creamed off as some form of windfall tax.
A week being a long time in politics and given a public with a memory span of a goldfish, the “42-day” election might have been something of a damp squib.
However, with much of the press tomorrow reporting the Lords debate on the subject, the opinions of people like Baroness Manningham-Buller, Lord Goldsmith, former Lord Chancellor Lord Falconer, Lord Thomas and Baroness Neville-Jones (who said of the 42-days plan: “It represents yet another attack, on the part of the government, without justification, on fundamental democratic rights and freedoms that have underpinned our society for centuries.”) will bring the whole thing back to the boil.
Is this another brilliant piece of strategic planning by the Tories?
Maybe the real reason for the US. Nuclear weapon removal is balance: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7494996.stm
This would make sense as it is a typical stratigic move to show to the commies….. I mean russians that Nato don’t want to attack.
Off thread but interesting nevertheless…
#
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/823871/did-they-vet-the-wrong-ray-lewis.thtml
34
It has been obvious for the past 20 years that banks created their own credit by the use of fincial instruments… like packaged up and resold mortgages.. Hence no central bank could control money supply or credit creation.
It could all have been stopped early on - particularly in the US…but Greenspan did not want to cos it would mean the US economy facing reality.
Banks all tend to jump over he same cliff together like lemmings.. the trick is to legisalte when times are good and restrict credit growth.
Try to do it when times are bad.. and you get contraction like post 1929 which was basically caused by bank tightening in a recession..
It’s unfortunate that Davis’s cause hasn’t had more media coverage because as things stand our liberties are being eroded at a phenomenal rate.
The press have been similarly silent about the witness anonymity bill that is being rushed through parliament before the summer recess. This a terrifying piece of legislation that does not conform with the European Convention on Human Rights. It will hand huge powers from the judiciary to the police and create a perjurer’s charter.
Innocent people are about to be incarcerated for a lot longer than 42 days.
51 - It wasn’t good enough to post twice, honestly!
The last two threads are an interestin contrast, Davis, traditionally seen as a man of the right, fairly or not, fighting for freedom and liberty, while the supposed moderate, Cameron, lectures the poor and the fat in a fashion Hariet Harman would be proud of. Interesting times indeed, although the latter does concern me, the last thing I want as someone who will vote Tory next time, is to replace one authroitarian, lecturing Governemnt with another.
46. You talk a lot of bullocks but the last part of your “insightful” glimpse in to voters minds is particulalry pathetic..outside the Labour and Labour lite party I am not sure anyone is rationalising that the Conservatives wouls make an even bigger mess.
Re DD, still wish he hadnt done it and (I am sure to Cameron’s relief)its all been a damp squib, but its not been anywhere near the sort of “disaster” for Cameron all the lefties desperately tried to spin on the day itself. Who remembers the “Tories split down the middle” and “crisis for Cameron” garbage that the usual susepcts spewed on the day.
Davis and Brown lost most from this. Cameron probably gained most. Labdims, as ever, irrelevant.
56. Don’t vote for ‘em then. I keep asking myself what the Tories would do substantially differently from this Labour government. Apart from a bit of tinkering around the edges & a bit of change in managerial style, I come up with a big fat nothing.
56- I’m a bit surprised at the skittishness of Tory voters here over Cameron’s statements. It doesn’t seem that there would be much in Cameron’s statements for Tory voters to quibble with (i.e., if you’re fat and/or poor, maybe you would be better off focusing on your own role in your plight rather than looking to blame others). Isn’t it somewhere near the core of Tory philosophy to believe that people should try to look after themselves rather than seek to have government look after them? Is this more a matter of fear over how this will play politically or do you Tory voters really object to the sentiment Cameron was expressing?
New PPP poll for North Carolina’s 8th Congressional District
McCain 39% .. Obama 43% .. Barr 7%
Note - Bush carried this district in 04 and 00 with 54%. PPP is a North Carolina based pollster.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_CD8_708.pdf
It’ll be fascinating to see if 42-days figures in PMQs.
By the by, we have been bitten by the bear but managed to avoid a full mauling with the FTSE closing at 5440.5 - only 19.2% below its most recent peak. Technically not a bear market (yet).
Does the Harriet H for prime minister story replacing GB have any more legs today
@59:
Me, I’m happy that it’s the first unambiguously Tory thing Dave’s said in quite a while.
It must be exhilarating for him when he lets the mask slip occasionally. Melanie Philips will be thrilled.
61. that does depend a bit on how you define it. i don’t think anyone out there thinks of it as a “bull market”!
@64:
*cough*gabble*cough*
61 - What IS a bear market - technically?
59 - Speaking for myself, mainly the former. Very keen to see people taking responsibility for themselves. I am wary that a subtext from this might be that Dave thinks the state ought to spend more time and money hectoring people, but I’m hoping that’s not the case.
62. I am sure HH is busy rehearsing her quips for when she stands in for Gordon tomorrow
32 You don’t know enough about string theory. Large chunks of mathematics would be pseudoscience by your (wrong) definition.
And yes I do know quite a lot about it.
68. i’m fairly sure he was joking about all the science stuff
I know that we’ll certainly remember what it was all meant to be about!
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=KsqYihgo0AI
63.
“Melanie Philips will be thrilled.”
until the dday DCam holds people personally responsible for being ugly and stupid.
GB keeps on talking about being the right man for the job - sounds very defensive - is he spooked by something stirring in the ranks
@68:
Mathematics is not science, nor does it claim to be. String theory (incorrectly) does, which is why it becomes pseudoscience. Not a scientific theory at all.
Being mathematically self-consistent or even elegant is NOT ENOUGH; that’s Aristotelian thinking, and 2000 years out of date by the standards of even the even most elementary of philosophy of science.
A *single* *new* *falsifiable* *prediction*: that’s all that any of the myriad String Theories needs to lift them out of the realms of pseudoscience and intellectual wanking.
One. In twenty years, they haven’t been able to do that. Doesn’t that strike you as a little… suspicious? Especially for something that wants to masquerade under a cloak of scientific acceptability?
The time has come for String Theorists to put up or shut up.
The Times sketch was damning about H&H. She made it sound like the by-election is a non-event. A low turnout would be bad for David. He could hardly claim a ringing endorsement of his ’stand’ if he fails to get his own voters to back him in big numbers.
Looking at the Media NRK Mk II is getting under way with B & B.
B & B shares are very low now today and i have a feeling an announcement is going to have to be made. Think they are in the process of shedding staff as well according to a recruitment consultant i have spoken too: Bearing in mind i live in Yorkshire.
75, merde.
I just hope no other firm is as severely affected.
54. “Innocent people are about to be incarcerated for a lot longer than 42 days.”
That’s already happening - q.v. the Libyan Megrahi, or Jeremy Bamber, among many others.
73.
“time has come for String Theorists to put up or shut up.”
are these Tory posters who link together numerous unconnected events with deficient logic paths to declare the probability of De Chameron Crew getting a majority of 150 in 2010 is 126 per cent?
64 - ed and 66 - cookie. Apologies for taking so long - have been out watering the garden, which is suffering from temperatures of 95 degrees and more.
Technically, a bear market starts when the relevant stock index (FTSE, CAC, DAX, DOW, etc.) closes more than 20% below its most recent high.
The emphasis is on the word “closes”, since markets can - as today - trade below the “bear” number but then rally to close above that number.
In the case of the Financial Times index (the FTSE) the key numbers are the most recent high (on 15th June 2007) of 6734.2 and the “bear” figure 20% below that - 5385.9.
The market closed today at 5440.5, still 54.6 points above the formal bear market figure, although it did trade well below that figure earlier in the day.
Hope that helps.
49 James, can you give me a reference for your post:
“Davis appears to have indicated he would tell Cameron where to shove the Ministry of Fun or whatever other pointless non-job he is offering. No, Davis will require Home Office or better.”
Every public and private utterance from Davis has been the opposite. So you must have special information, and I want to tap into it, please.
The Mole has an interesting snippet:
“There is a growing belief that if Labour loses the Glasgow East by-election on July 24, there will be a move against the PM and it will come around the time of the TUC conference in September. As the Glasgow East constituency party meets today to chose its candidate following the withdrawal for family reasons - which few believe - of the favoured candidate George Ryan, one senior minister told me: “We are going to lose Glasgow East and we should be planning for the aftermath.”
75. And Alliance & Leicester finished almost 15% down on the day.
and he also has this:
“BBC political editor Nick Robinson struck a raw nerve when he asked Gordon Brown at the Japan G8 summit whether he would stand down for the good of his own party. Brown angrily replied that he won’t be standing down, saying he is the right man to lead Britain through the troubles during the coming recession and take Labour into the next general election.
Robinson has put into words what many Labour MPs are thinking, but by asking the question has only encouraged Gordon to dig himself in deeper.
There will be concerns that Robinson, a former young Conservative, has done David Cameron a real favour by pinning Brown to his post for, as Richard Ehrman writes in today’s cover story for The First Post, some Tories are privately saying that the last thing they want to see is Gordon stepping down. “I’m running the save Gordon campaign,” joked one beefy Tory MP.”
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 46%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108700/Gallup-Daily-Obama-46-McCain-44.aspx
77 - Well, in your view.
There is no system in the world to my knowledge that shifts the burden of proof so far to the prosecution that an innocent person literally cannot be imprisoned. The rule is proof beyond reasonable doubt, not beyond any doubt. In such circumstances, there will be people who protest their innocence to the grave - and some of their apparently ludicrous explanations will turn out to be true.
But that’s a feature rather than a flaw. The concept of “better ten guilty people go free than one innocent person is convicted” implies that there is an appropriate number higher than ten at which you will countenance the slight risk of a tragic injustice.
‘Glasgow East by-election: Labour launchs campaign, at last’
“Ms Curran also ducked questions on whether she believed there should be an early referendum on Scottish independence, as advocated by former Scottish Labour leader Wendy Alexander.
“I am not frightened of the verdict of the Scottish people,” she said, adding: “I don’t think the Scottish people want independence. But my focus just now is on the issues that matter to the people – poverty, jobs and regeneration.”"
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Glasgow-East-byelection-Labour-launchs.4266160.jp
80 - It’s been pretty widely reported that “friends of David Davis” (the common press euphemism for the person himself) have said he would not accept a lesser post. That may be untrue and I am not a great believer in the honesty of the press, hence my use of “appears”. Not being a close personal friend of Davis, I am afraid that’s the best I have (although I suspect it is also the best anyone here has).
I would certainly be prepared to take a small wager that, should the Conservatives win the General Election, Davis will either not be in the Government (most likely) or will be in it as one of the three great offices of state (less likely). I think it is almost inconceivable he would lower himself to a lesser post even if it were offered.
87 James, all I want to know is where these widespread reports are to be found. that is all. I cannot find them, nor have I seen them, and that is unusual when it is something so important. So can you help me?
57
No Davis has gained hugely from this. He is now seen as a man who puts principle before personal gain and someone who will stand up for what is right. As others have said it is a shame that sections of the media - notably the BBC - have followed their political masters in trying (and to some extent succeeding) to remove this by election from the public eye but that only reflects badly on them and not on Davis.
One of the real losers here has been MODERATED
87. Surely the Ministry of Justice would suit Davis just as well as the Home Office?
89 if not the worst…
89
okay so why has that last comment been moderated?
Why the hell should one individual - a politician who should be open to scrutiny just like all the rest - be immune from justified and accurate criticism?
That is just bloody ridiculous.
86. I note that The Scautchman cannot spell.
91
I agree entirely. Apparently the people running this site do not and so feel they have to gag criticism of him.
Betfair - Haltemprice and Howden - Davis Vote Percentage
80.01 Percent Or Greater 2.4
70.01 - 80.0 Percent 2.42
70.0 Percent Or Fewer 2.48
I believe that this is the first time that 80%+ has been favourite in this market. It was 70%- that was the strong favourite up until a few days ago.
89.
“He is now seen as a man who puts principle before personal gain ”
Some of the people some of the time…….
89 - The real loser has been moderated? Huh?!?
96
Or you all of the time..
re 89 because he sues Richard. I cannot take the risk
After a brief period when I got influenced by the hype about Davis, I think he has made a bit of a chump of himself.
Off thread- when is a Glasgow East poll due. Any ideas folks?
83.
“There will be concerns that Robinson, a former young Conservative, has done David Cameron a real favour by pinning Brown ”
That’ll be Nick of the ‘pro-Labour BBC’ then?
97
Ukpaul
apparently there is one person in the House of Commons that no one is allowed to criticise. I stated that that person had been partisan and was unfit for his job. That was all. But it seems that we are not allowed to say that.
I leave it to you to work out who I was talking about with relation to Davis and his resignation.
Sorry. Who has been moderated and why?
Mike,
you have to be kidding me???
So is my posting at 102 acceptable given that it doesn’t name him?
Davis has made a fool of himself; which is sad because he isn’t one.
103. Richard Tyndall has been moderated by Mike because of a possible libel regarding Mr. Speaker’s place in history.
I have no time for the present speaker but I think that Mike’s moderation is probably justified.
99
More to the point Mike, the Telegraph said much the same thing this morning. In fact as I remember there were rather more forthright.
102.
“partisan and …unfit for his job”
Someone suggesting the Speaker is like both front benches?
106
Just to point out that now Mike has said that I understand so I withdraw the impugnity against him. But I still find it amazing that we are not allowed to criticise one particular politician because he likes to reach for his lawyers too often.
108
Not if it gets Mike into trouble. Never said a word me.
Witan at 88: see http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1310886.ece
Unfortunate for Davis that Glasgow East came along but, franklym the media have been the problem. They got the mood wrong at the start and have been too embarrassed to back pedal ever since. There have been numerous debates and events taking place with Davis over the issues but the media have covered barely anything.
Why? Because they control the agenda and they are too arrogant to admit when their agenda is not the same as that of the public.
Evening all, re the topic, I still believe David Davis’ by-election will come back to haunt Gordon Brown and Jacqui Smith time and time again. Why do the non-Tories on here persist in their nonsensical view that DC and DD can’t stand one another? They clearly admire one another and my money is still on DD being Deputy PM after the GE.
Re Glasgow East, the LibDems have declared that they expect to win on the 24th. They seem to really believe it so I dread to think what they will be like on the 25th when they come 4th or worse! Given that clearly the LibDems are going to sweep Scotland in 2010, I have ordered a new crash helmet for Friday. Given the amount of abuse hurled at your’s truly last Friday for daring to suggest 2 of their Highland seats might be vulnerable, it can only go downhill.
Dan, I am still waiting for your evidence of the “huge swing” from the SNP to the LibDems in Inverness in 2007? given that the notional swing between the 2 was 0.48%, perhaps you can enlighten us. Also you decried me for ignoring the fact that by far the Libdems are the largest group on the Highland Council when in fact the breakdown is Independents 36, LibDems 20, SNP 17 and Labour 7. So clearly being 16 councillors fewer than the Independents and only 3 more than the SNP does indeed give the LibDems a commanding position. I hope when you tear my next group of observations apart you will actually consider the facts before opening your mouth and spewing out the invective!
110.
Me, I think the Speaker is greatly superior to both front benches put together - the odd accounting practice aside. He doesn’t pretend to be something he’s not - vaguely competent in the case of the front benches.
111 nasty spin and innuendo, and almost certainly untrue.
Nick , did you see Quentin Letts attack on you posted this morning by any chance…
112. When the GE comes round, though, civil liberties issues will be discussed, because the news media have to cover the parties’ talking points - and the Lib Dems at least will surely devote a few days to ID cards and 42 days’ detention. Whether or not Davis is a Tory frontbencher then, he will get the chance to put his case across.
111 - oh well, if it’s in the Sun ……
Probably less accurate analysis than Quentin Letts.
I agree with you about the Front benches - and most of the back benches as well. I am saying nothing about the other matter as the subject might get upset and send the secret police round to have me ‘disappeared’.
113.
“Given the amount of abuse hurled at your’s truly last Friday for daring to suggest 2 of their Highland seats might be vulnerable”
Not one ounce of criticism was laid at your door on that issue - it was ENTIRELY about your pretence that the Tories could have the vaguest chance in an of those seats.
117.
“less accurate analysis than Quentin Letts.”
I thought the metaphysics diversion had ended a few score postings ago! Now we’re back to time-space discontinuities.
116 - By the time of the next election legislation will have to be reversed, it’s better to not let it happen in the first place.
B & B is not about liquidity…………..
Famous last words. Maybe not yet but lets remember what the rights issue is for!
With just three days to go before its rights issue closes the HBOS share price remains stubbornly below its 275p per share pricing.
Should this continue to be the case, the underwriters will be left with zillions of shares - It’s difficult to imagine any sort of take-up unless the share price recovers to at least 290p.
a powerful piece by Fraser Nelson on Glasgow East…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/824006/what-i-saw-in-glasgow-east.thtml
119. Yes but why do LD’s have to throw a wobbler about it and become personal and abusesive?
LD’s need to chill out - Nick Palmer does not throw a wobbler when people say he is likely to see the displeasure of his electrate at the next GE.
If anything LD’s show there vulnerabilty by raising to the bait! Like Clegg in Sheffield Hallam or Huhne in Eastleigh. Frankly nobody gives a stuff whether the two non-enitites are re-elected or not!
LD’s take themselves far too seriously *winning here* and ramped up expectations incorporated! The cross is the LD’s making do not complain about the burden.
At the GE 2005 H&H looked like this:
Conservative: 22792 (47.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 17676 (36.8%)
Labour: 6104 (12.7%)
BNP: 798 (1.7%)
UKIP: 659 (1.4%)
Majority: 5116 (10.7%)
Let say there’s been a 10% swing to the Tories since then, and now only 40% of the electorate wouldn’t vote Davis under normal circumstances.
It’s obviously very difficult to predict what will motivate people and how the votes will aggregate, but I just can’t see those 40% (who wouldn’t have voted Davis in a GE) deciding at this junction to switch to Davis, or deciding they’ll pass up their chance to vote. For what it worth, I’ve bet on the Green (safe harbour for those anti-Tory votes) and Davis<70%. I’ll probably be wrong on both counts.
Re the media not running stories about freedoms and liberties, why should they let Davis set the agenda? It’s not going to sell any papers is it? If the commercial media want to say in business they need to cover stories people want to hear about. Besides, Davis’ liberty manifesto (has he got one? - I can’t be bothered to look) is so incoherent it’s difficult to what he stands for on this issue.
If you haven’t bothered to look then how do you know whether it is coherent or not. Sort of sums up your whole argument right there.
125. “nobody gives a stuff whether the two non-enitites [sic] are re-elected or not”!
Martin, the question of Clegg’s survival seems to have consumed your every waking thought for the last six months. How can you write in all serious that no one cares about it?
Surely you’re not suggesting that your hatred of the Lib Dems is not shared by the electorate at large?
126 say in business = stay in business
111 Nick Palmer thanks but that report is fairly standard in that Davis says he will not expect nor want to go back to Shadow Home Sec and expects to go to the back benches.
There is nothing there to support James suggestion which is rather different when he says: “Davis appears to have indicated he would tell Cameron where to shove the Ministry of Fun or whatever other pointless non-job he is offering. No, Davis will require Home Office or better.”
In fact the report is the very opposite in that he would not expect nor want the his old job, nor is that Sun report suggesting he will be telling Cameron to ’shove’ any job.
His ‘friends’ which James sees as supporting his statement say something very different in that Sun article.One close colleague of Mr Davis said: “David is a big figure and there are only a handful of top jobs. They are all taken. There’s no space for him.
“There’s only one place he can go, to the backbenches.”
So unless there is something else to support his statement James is just spinning.
Pity, I thought there might be some excitement about.
113 - I really think you read what you want into my posts Easterross. I said the Lib Dems were the largest political group on Highland council.
The Liberal Democrats have not said they’ll win Glasgow East as I posted last night. John Barrett MP said the Labour vote had collapsed and that there was an opportunity for all parties to pick up votes - pretty much what David Cameron said earlier in the day. I’d reccomend watching Newsnight on BBC iplayer to find out what he actually said rather than what you want him to say.
128. Nobody does really care outside the LD’s.
Just because nobody cares does not mean it cannot be used as a weapon! I despise the disgusting tatics the LD’s employ not the ideology. Supporters of LD’s seem to revel in using dirty tricks against opponents as i have said previously the very fact they have to employ this shows they are not worth the time of day in the seriousness stakes…..
132. “Nobody does really care outside the LD’s”. You do. And you’re somebody.
Sad that Jill Saward became Bruin’s mouthpiece?
Is Easteross a spoof? Seems like one.
The result might have been important had Labour stood.
As it is what was important was that Labour refused to stand and try to justify its “popular” policies with the electorate. And consequently when 42 days comes back to the Commons they will not be able to use the only serious argument at their disposal.
134 - I understand why Jill Saward is standing, and I admire her for her stance. I disagree with her strongly, but I defend her right to freedom of speech.
To call her Brown’s mouthpiece is rather unpleasant. She is no more Brown’s mouthpiece than Ann Widdecombe is.
119. Wage Slave - “Not one ounce of criticism was laid at your door on that issue - it was ENTIRELY about your pretence that the Tories could have the vaguest chance in an of those seats.”
Not true. Easterross was subject to a tirade of Lib Dem abuse.
He only gave a very mild indication that the Cons have an outside chance in ONE seat (A&B), which they certainly do!
Is “SBS” a spoof of Paddy Ashdown? Seems like one.
136. It’s a dead duck. After the Lords sling it out the gov. has to wait a year before they can re-introduce it. By that time they’ll be gone.
139 - they happen to be my initials.
Why Marquee? Part of Brown’s big tent?
140 - “By that time they’ll be gone.”
I fear they will still be with us, unfortunately.
42 days is bad legislation, but why was the rebellion so much bigger than it was over ID cards?
141 “Why Marquee? Part of Brown’s big tent?”
The only thing “big tent” about me are my tee-shirts….
142. Some Labour MPs grew some balls in the interim?
Evening all
Re: 138 - Come on, Stuart, a “tirade” - a couple of critical comments at worst. To be fair, Easterross didn’t deserve it but we don’t need you wading in given your long history of anti-Lib Dem rantings.
Compared to the vitriol heaped on anyone here who criticises Cameron, Easterross got off lightly. In any case, Easterross is a Tory activist of some years standing. I’m sure he’s had far worse said to him than anything on here. I’m sure he won’t keep harping on about it long after everyone else has forgotten…
133. No, I am nobody of any consequence. Just an observer and ‘occasional’ independent player behind the scenes.
42 days is bad legislation, but why was the rebellion so much bigger than it was over ID cards?
Perhaps because ID cards won’t happen for quite some time?
140 - “By that time they’ll be gone.”
Probably not. But Brown might well be. Hopefully the new leader will throw it overboard as part of the clear out.
135- I think Easteross is a trifle OCD. An affliction that affects many pbCOMers.
145 - Cameron is a t0sser! Cameron is a t0sser! Cameron is a t0sser! Cameron is a t0sser!
Vitriol awaited.
(I don’t actually believe what I have written four times above, but a) it was fun b) I think a lot of Tories don’t believe what they post either.)
135- btw SBS- since I found out you were a trifle older than I thought I hold your posts with even more respect.
For some reason I imagined you as a pseudo intellectual yuppie with a porche.
150,
Vitriol!
Vitriol!
Vitriol!
Vitriol!
(Is that enough?)
147. More likely that 42 days is a nice simple concept to grasp, whereas the potentialities of a relational database is a bit too abstract for them.
145. There was a whole thread on Cameron and nobody kicked off, whether people were critical or not.
If people pass comment whether positive or negative on seats, leaders or even Mp’s / frontbenchers: Why become so pumped up about it? What’s the point?
It’s as though it is a personal slight against the person in question?
150
excellent
excellent
excellent
excellent
150.
with silver spoons on top: don’t forget!!!!
151 - I actually drive a Skoda. (Which is the Czech word for “pity”)
On DD, I still applaud what he has done. I don’t think there is a rift with Cameron; I just think Cameron was taken a bit by surprise by the move.
157-SBS- you once wrote a sublime post on Osborne that rather etched itself on my memory.
Not sure if there is a correlation between the type of cars people drive (although ALL Skoda drivers vote LibDem!). But recently I have noticed what appears to be a very solid link - Tories drive silver cars. Any views?
159. It reflects their sterling qualities.
An article on Glasgow East
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/07/08/do0808.xml
159 - “ALL Skoda drivers vote LibDem!”
Well i know for a fact that isn’t true.
159. Yes, I have a silver car! Ford Focus!
162 There really should be “tongue ever so slightly in cheek” emoticon!
The Tories are fortunate that Davis’ grand standing move on what is a important issue hasnt had any negative impact.
From what I see it hasnt had any wider impact at all on the wider political situation.
Incidentally, I’m wondering if having David Davis on the backbenches might not turn out to be a net positive for Cameron. Cast your minds forward to 2012 or so, Cameron’s first government is rubbing along ok, but there’s a crisis at the Home Office of disastrous proportions, and Cameron is forced into a Cabinet reshuffle.
There’d obviously be “Cameron under pressure”, “Tories in disarray” type headlines. Having someone of the stature of Davis ready to plug into the Home Secretary job wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
166- AndrewG- methinks by that time DD will be as loopy as a fruitcake, sadly because he has a great head of hair