Will Labour PMQ stand-in Harriet seize the moment?
July 9th, 2008
Does her elected status mean she’s fire-proof?
When Harriet Harman, first stood in for Brown at PMQs at the start of April there were widespread expectations that Cameron’s stand-in, William Hague, would do to her what he had done to the former deputy PM, John Prescott. But Harriet was ready and by all accounts came out from the exchanges on level terms if not better (judge for yourself by clicking the panel above)
Today the woman who was the surprise victor in last year’s deputy leadership election will be standing in for Brown again but in very much changed circumstances. All the polls have Labour in the 20s with the Tories in the 40s, London’s City Hall is under Tory Boris Johnson, and her party has had two awful by election results.
With the talk now being dominated by how long Brown can hold on and who would take his place there are growing suggestions that surrogates for Harriet are quietly sounding out opinion about her acceptability - first as a stand in PM if that post became vacant and then as a possibility for the main job itself.
The big political story in the Sun this morning is headed “Harriet bids to become PM” and seemingly she is the one Labour figure prepared to put her head above the parapet.
Because of that deputy leadership victory Harriet is in completely different position from all her other cabinet colleagues. She owes her position as a senior party figure not to Brown but to the movement as a whole and by all accounts she seems prepared to exploit it.
It is, of course, that same complex Labour electoral system that would be used in a contested leadership election and Harriet showed last year that she had mastered it beating off some “big beasts” in the process.
Which brings us to today’s PMQs at noon where she will be standing in for Brown who is at the G8 meeting. A good performance today could add to her platform - a bad one could dish her hopes completely.
Last night at a party I bumped into the first person to talk of a possible Harman leadership, Daniel Finkelstein, who argued that “Labour members will be looking for a more left wing candidate as leader, not another straight moderniser.” I agree. On Monday I put the grand sum of £12 on her at 16/1 to be the next occupant of Number 10 on Betfair’s “Next PM” market. The best you can get this morning is 5/1.
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I can see the headlines.
London A ghost town, as whites emigrate.
Highly taxed companies rush to leave Britain.
Heathrow unable to cope with rush.
Stock market hits all-time low as Harman raises taxes on investors.
2 Million More To Leave Britain.
USA To Take In British Refugees.
Yes, Boris is pretty useless isn’t he?
US Election Reality Check:
Obama’s lead hovering around the margin of error.
Obama promises to increase federal deficit.
Obama’s policies all change.
America likes guns, religion.
RNC has massive election fund, making Obama’s superior fundraising moot.
Democratic congress’ approval lower than Republican President Bush.
My FACE, your ARSE prediction: too close to call. One per cent either way, as in the last two elections.
Lets be honest it’d be the only chance she’d get to be Prime Minister. From her point of view, I don’t see a downside.
“I put the grand sum of £12 on her at 16/1 to be the next occupant of Number 10 on Betfair’s “Next PM” market. The best you can get this morning is 5/1.”
Not so, Mike, that nice chap Aaron at bet365 is offering 14-1.
2 - indeed, where are all the people who were going to commit suicide, leave London, leave England, leave Europe, leave the planet if Boris became Mayor. Still packing?
‘Labour will need to borrow at least 3.2pc of GDP this year, even if the economy holds up well. Brussels described this as “prima facie evidence of a planned excessive deficit”.’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/09/cneu109.xml
They think this sh*t we’re in was PLANNED?
It seems chez Harman is becoming the venue of choice for protests.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7496804.stm
5 In fact betfair’s 14-1 odds, referred to above, relate to HH becoming the next Labour leader, not to the more restrictive event of her becoming PM, which is unlikely to be the case in the most likely scenario where Brown decides to struggle on.
7 They think this sh*t we’re in was PLANNED?
No, just the “excessive deficit” bit, which says it all really doesn’t it?
9 Third word “betfair’s” should read “bet365’s”
Excessive deficit? Unfunded spending promises anyone?
9 - Is it more restrictive? The current scenario is for her to be a ’stand-in PM’ whilst a Labour leadership contest takes place. That doesn’t require her to be Labour leader.
Can any of the left leaning members on here explain why Harman would be a good choice of PM? She comes across as the worst kind of hectoring politician. I just don’t see her appeal.
She will probably do well again against Hague. Harman will have prepared for Hague’s rhetorical tricks and wit - if he plays it straight and asks hard questions then it would be a greater test but William enjoys his reputation and will try to be funny and clever, which Harriet seems to be able to deal with.
15, be interesting to see if he does go for a tougher line, given the ex-head of MI5 savaging 42 days as unworkable, and the possibility of recession, or indeed ministers voting to keep the expenses as is.
13 The last thing this country needs right now is a stand-in PM and a protracted Labour leadership contest. Yes, this could happen were Brown to quit through ill health, but I far prefer betfair365’s terms which would payout on the more likely prospect of Harman becoming the next Leader either before or after an election defeat.
Harriet Harman’s difficulty is that this time round the questions will be about Gordon Brown, not her. I’m sure William Hague will try to extract some statement of undying loyalty to her leader. Ms Harman will have to do some very careful footwork if she wants to leave her options open.
Off topic, the Times seems to be on a serious anti-Tory downer this week. The lead headline online until a few moments ago was “Row over Tory peer’s ‘nigger in woodpile’ slip”. I couldn’t find this story on the Guardian website at all.
Re. 14, I don’t know about left-leaning (I’m centre-left), but search me.
14 Me neither LL, but as Mike correctly points out, she won the Deputy Leadership contest fairly and squarely and who’s to say she can’t win the bigger prize, voted on by effectively the same electorate?
7 - Well it certainly wasn’t avoided.
Ten days ago, Gerald Warner wrote in the Telegraph “Some of the more perceptive Labour ministers are voicing suspicions that the scale of Labour’s defeat in the Henley by-election may be not unconnected with Harriet Harridan’s legislation to discriminate against men, announced on the day voters went to the polls.”
Could she genuinely command the support needed to clinch the top job? I think not - and odds of 16/1 wouldn’t tempt me.
2. If Boris became PM the traffic would be the other way. 2 million would return home.
Hague vs Harman.
Against well-ordered arguments Hague can find weak points and hit back, but up against total stupidity he finds himself defenceless, as we all are.
Put another way, I’d like to be to see things from Harriet Harman’s viewpoint, but I can’t get my head up my arse.
Thats very true. But look what happened to the Tories when they elected IDS, just because they saw him as one of them!
18 Is this the same Hapless Harriet whose career was on a knife edge a few short months back because she didn’t have a clue what was going on about donations for her leadership bid? The one who didn’t exactly get a ringing endorsement from the Prime Minister?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/1570633/Harriet-Harman-‘vulnerable’-over-donation.html
A bit of slurry left in the bottom of Labour’s barrel, then. Still, it might be payback time - Hague could be quite naughty and ask her if she has confidence in the Prime Minister! See if she similarly prevaricates….
24. Or perhaps more accurately, they didn’t see Ken Clarke as ‘one of them’, and IDS was the other name on the ballot paper.
24 re IDS — actually the Tories did better under IDS than they think they did, and, ironically, defenestrated him after better than expected results at the polls.
Perhaps there lies the danger for Gordon, and it is when things start to pick up that Brown’s would-be assassins will unsheath their knives. While Labour is bumping along the bottom there is not much point.
24. We did IDS to death two days ago..don’t start me off defending his record again. I see no relationship between Harperson and IDS who was popular with the public. ENDS.
25. Link not complete.
26,
I not sure that is entirely true. Activists who I know knew about IDS and fully intended to vote for him and not because he was not Ken Clarke.
22 Do you really think Hapless Harriet wasn’t aware that the timing of her comments would drain votes from Labour at Henley? That in turn, a truly dreadful showing for Labour would pile extra pressure on Brown? That she didn’t know David Marshall’s health issues were about to set up a make-or-break by-election in Glasgow East? And that on the eve of that by-election, she won’t come up with a stunning plan to deprive those with a strong regional accent of all state benefits?
No - hapless Harriet has a plan….
28,
No he was not.
If Hague is daft enough to ask, doubtless Harman will proclaim unswerving loyalty before nodding the question into the open goal of the benches opposite. Is there betting on what will come up?
20. Yes, although the big difference between the leadership and deputy leadership elections is that Harman ran on a campaign based on not much more than ‘we must have a woman as deputy if the leader is a man (and he will be)’, and played the preference votes game well on that basis. The same argument will not wash in a leadership election - she would have to win it on her own merits, and I don’t think she has many. More importantly - given that I wouldn’t have a vote - while I could see her doing OK but no better in the union / membership sections were they to vote in isolation, I could see her tanking with the PLP on the back of opinion polls, and that would undermine any pre-election leadership bid.
Where I do agree with Mike is that she is in a much more powerful position to adopt an independent line than any other cabinet minister except Brown himself because of the powerbase that being elected deputy gives her. Prescott lost his ministry bit by bit, until he ran little more than his own office, but he remained a player despite several misdemeanours that would have finished other politicians. It will be well worth watching her to see how she uses that power.
29. I remember being at a party rally at the 2001 general election, and IDS got a massive cheer as he entered the hall (from the back) - based solely on the fact that most activists could just see a bald head walking towards the stage and assumed it was William Hague. I sometimes wonder whether that mistake had any impact on future decisions taken by IDS and others.
Many thanks to Maggie Thatcher Fan for the link to that paper, in the last thread:
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/824006/what-i-saw-in-glasgow-east.thtml
“Powerfull piece” indeed.
30. If Harman delivers the coup de grace to the Brown regime, the country would be eternally grateful to her - as long as she is not selected as his replacement.
RE Harman’s good showing against Hague at their last clash. Years ago I remember some commentators saying that Neil Kinnock was poor against Thatcher at PMQ’s because he didn’t want to be seen bullying a woman, apparently this was particularly obvious in the Commons debate on Westland in the wake of Heseltine’s resignation. Kinnock hardly laid a glove on Thatcher despite the huge trouble she was in, later he is supposed to have told colleagues that if he had rammed home the point he could have fatally wounded Thatcher but he was afraid how it would reflect on him to be seen picking on a woman, (or so he said!) Perhaps that’s why Harman did so well the last time, Hague being too much the Tory gentleman to attack her.
Gordon Brown’s distancing of himself from Harman when the Abraham’s funding issue over her deputy leadership campaign came up can’t have helped her loyalty to his premiership. Neither can his refusal to make her Deputy PM nor his failure to include her in the No 10 team - compare how Blair indulged and included Prescott with Brown’s treatment of Harman.
She speaks for a large constituency in the Labour Party to whom the agenda of equality, minority rights, abortion rights, multiculturalism is pre-eminent. It was Harman who organised the voting on the Embryology Bill and who “whipped” Labour MPs in the free vote. She is doing the equivalent of Heseltine’s wooing of the constituencies in late 80’s. Perhaps her biggest asset is that she isn’t one of the Brown cabal - now stained with the failure of their leader - but isn’t a Blairite. She is of the left without being one of the ‘usual suspects’.
“Once bitten, twice shy”. Before Brown took over as leader last year, Labour ignored polling evidence that he was not popular amongst the electorate. I don’t believe that they will make the same mistake again.
Therefore Harperson has no chance. (Breathes sigh of relief)
Why would Harman assert herself now? Because Brown is being pushed to appoint a DPM.
38 As Ted points out, Harman has a power base in the PLP. Probably bigger than any other apart from Brown.
38 Wasn’t Harman regarded as a Brownite when Blair sacked her in 98?
I remember reading that Cameron and Harperson are “cousins”.
Moderately curious — does anyone know their exact family relationship?
GLASGOW EAST
“Round one to Labour as SNP accused of hypocrisy over ‘two jobs’”
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Round-one-to-Labour-as.4268481.jp
“Mr Mason said: “Margaret Curran needs to decide – does she want to be an MP for Glasgow East or an MSP? Before anyone even considers voting Labour they should ask very carefully, do they want a full-time representative or a part-timer?”
Immediately, Labour accused the SNP of “breathtaking hypocrisy”. Campaign manager David Cairns, the Scotland Office minister, said: “Alex Salmond must be furious at Councillor Mason’s latest blunder.”"
——–
“Blunder as SNP by-election hopeful blasts Labour candidate for trying to be MP and MSP”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/07/09/blunder-as-snp-by-election-hopeful-blasts-labour-candidate-for-trying-to-be-mp-and-msp-86908-20636864/
3-Thought I was the only on here who had not been swept up by Obamania!!
From The Daily ‘Hurrah for the blackshirts’ Mail:
Their connection, I learn, is through marriage. According to genealogist Hugh Montgomery-Massingberd, who has written and edited 50 books on the aristocracy: “There is a clear link between her and Cameron through her late aunt Elizabeth Harman.
“Elizabeth married the prison reformer Frank (the Earl of) Longford and the Earl’s sister, Lady Julia Pakenham, married Robin Mount, who was the brother of Cameron’s grandfather, Sir William Mount.”
45. So is Hazza toffier than Dave then?
Don’t know why some people are now saying that Harman “won” the last contest with Hague. I thought at the time that she came over as shrilly defensive, and hectoring, by turns. Does anyone really think she shaded Hague?!
Rob
41 Harriet has long been seen as a Brown supporter but she hasn’t been part of Brown’s close circle, just enough distance so she hasn’t been tarred by his failure. Those who longed for the King over the Water through the years of Blair’s premiership, but had their hopes dashed by the actuality of Gordon Brown PM, could well be attracted to join her camp if it came down to David Miliband v A.N. Other, and she is well positioned to be Ms Other.
I presume there would be no problem with the First Lord of the Treasury being married to the Treasurer of the virtually bankrupt Labour Party?
PS Someone count the spoons, quick!!
Harriet Harman please don’t refer to her as the, ‘N****r in the woodpile’ its not done.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4297283.ece
Oooooh he’s in trouble now.
44. You’re not, Peter.
Obama still strikes me as inexplicably perceived as charismatic, and lauded mostly for relative youth and change from the incumbent.
He reminds me very much of pre-1997 Blair. And we know how that worked out.
Do HH’s supporters look forward to her being ‘First lord of the treasury’?
Sure, after 11 years of tax-and-spend from ‘no more boom and bust’ the comparison doesn’t look demanding. But is HH really the best?
O/T - Tories unveil recycling pay plans. Some US companies offer to cut the landfill tax bill by increasing recycling rates.
Mr Osborne will say: “Instead of being fined for not recycling, households are actually being paid for their recycling”
You mean like the late 1940’s, when I used to earn my pocket money by collecting empty bottles and old newspapers?
Fabulous idea - what took you so long?
Is “no more bust” a possible campaigning slogan for David Milipede?
If I were William Hague, I would make some cruel jokes about “waste not, want not” and the banquet menu, then ask Ms Harman whether she agrees with the Prime Minister’s strictures and if so, what she will be putting on summit menus when she has knifed him in the back for the good of the country? It would be hard to dismiss the topic as frivolous when the Prime Minister himself has raised it.
54.
“Tories unveil recycling pay plans.”
Is this how they recycle our pay into the pockets of their EuroMPs’ families?
57. FYI - You just aren’t that witty.
B&B up this morning - rejoice rejoice - I give it 48hrs..
55
Of course, ‘A lot more bust’ (If you get my meaning) could be HH’s campaign slogan.
Sorry coming over all Jim Davidson this morning!!
Saatchi back supporting the Cons
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/07/09/do0901.xml
Cameron now even has Hefferlump onside (!)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/07/09/do0903.xml
59. Your doing what to Jim Davidson?
61
Well the sight of a ‘True Tory’ like Jim has that sort of affect on me.
‘Jim return from Dubai, your country needs you’
Just announced Bovis and Redrow are reducing their staffing by 40%. Let’s all applaud as Gordon says we are safe in his hands!
If Harriet becoems PM then we can at least be reassured by the fact that after a 1-year experiment of letting the country be run by a son of the Manse, Labour would return to its tried and tested principle of letting a toff run the country. 10 years of Public schoolboy Tony Blair and then safe in the hands of a product of England’s top girls public school, Harriet Harman!
The thought of the party which Margaret Curran claims is looking after the people of Glasgow East turning to an admiral’s daughter and niece of a countess must be very reassuring for the 25% of Glasgow East’s population already unemployed. At least since most of the remaining 75% work for Glasgow City council or the Secretary of State for the Department of Work and Pensions (isn’t this the Dept which doles out brew money?) then they will be relatively safe unlike the tens of thousands who have already been told this week tehy are losing their jobs.
I put a tenner on harriet the other night to be next PM and I hope she does get it before the next election if Brown stands down because in Scotland it would mean meltdown for the Labour party.
I just had a lay of Harman matched at 7.8 - someone’s obviously taking her bid seriously…
Okay… I know there are all these logical arguments about how she might appeal to the target electorate, how it might represent value as a bet….
But surely, at some point, reality has to kick in? Even a body as seemingly collectively braindead as the PLP can’t possibly be stupid enough to go for Harman as leader?
I just can’t bring myself to lay money on something that seems like it would violate some fairly fundamental principles of sentience. Doesn’t basic common sense rule this out, ever?
I think that everybody is underestimating the power of the female vote - both within the Labour party and within the country.
Just read this thread after I’d tipped HH for the deputy job last year.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/06/01/could-the-exhaustive-ballot-favour-a-woman/
The Watcher “Kinnock hardly laid a glove on Thatcher despite the huge trouble she was in, later he is supposed to have told colleagues that if he had rammed home the point he could have fatally wounded Thatcher but he was afraid how it would reflect on him to be seen picking on a woman..”
You are so right to be sceptical. Kinnock is the king of justifying poor performances after the event. He had to, being at the top level of the Labour party for three massive election defeats.
After making such a big issue of Cameron being a toff,Labour can hardly turn round and elect a toff as leader of their party.
15. does William really “enjoy his reputation”? as the Tory bory who presided over the worst point in his party’s history, lied about drinking 14 pints, and then got sacked in favour of IDS?!
Mike S the female vote is very important in the country at general election time, but I am not at all sure they will support Harperson simply because she is a woman. They are smarter than that.
Do you support Brown because he is a man, did your wife support Thatcher because she was a woman PM?
Three sectors are now experiencing a recession, Retail, Construction and Finance.
The statements by Yvette that this is just low growth look plain stupid.
70. our electoral system favours anyone who can pick up an extra couple of percent of positive support for a trivial reason like that. particularly as those with the opposite view may not feel strongly enough about it to vote.
35
my pleasure
71. if you cherry pick like that, then nearly half the country is in recession at any one point in a boom cycle. intellectually lazy.
Harman for PM? Frankly anything seems possible in this catastrophic end-game of the Labour regime.
I don’t doubt she has the confidence to push for it. I think that after a honeymoon the narrative would revert to ‘out-of-touch, incompetent Labour’. HH has a hectoring tone and has never struck me as being full of intellectual rigour. Put it that way…
On the toff thing, public school jibes against Cameron would be ruled out. Cameron still sounds posher, but I really don’t think that in the current mood that matters one bit. He comes across as decent and earnest, and everyone respects that - contrasting with how people perceive Labour front benchers these days, it seems.
if Harman does go for the leadership, where does it out all those ministers who have up to now been saying Gordon is the right man and they fully support him. Difficult times ahead. Will Labour tear itself apart?
Mike, the truth is the public just don’t like her. That didn’t matter too much when they were electing a deputy leader. It will matter if and when they come to elect a new leader.
The whole leadership election scenario is based around the premise that Brown is now so disliked by the public that he cannot win the GE. Ergo, if the party decides to replace him, it will replace him with the person who most appeals to the public as a whole. At the moment, that would be either Johnson or D. Miliband.
66 - I accept the XX chromosome may have made for a winning hand in the election for the non-job of deputy leader, Mike.
But are you really saying that women voters, in the party and the country at large, will look at Harman and think:
“Well, she may be serially incompetent and generally thicker than mince, but she’s a woman, and that’s good enough for us. Prime Minister Harman!”
Except Ed that financial services are the bedrock of the UK economy.
60 - If Cammo has the wretched Hefferlump onside then he is in more trouble than I suspected!
75. I can’t think of a single politician who is full of intellectual rigour.
the game is simply in dodging the suspicions for long enough to grab some power
79. fine, so if you are interested in the economy as a whole, _look_ at the economy as a whole. taking individual sectors out because they are the “bedrock” makes no logical sense. being smaller they are more volatile and therefore more likely to back up your views at any given time.
It does if there are ones which are shaping the direction of the economy.
Too much prominence was given to Harman’s modest performance, she managed to disappont those who had expected that Hague had entered one of the new Olympic events, clubbing defenceless seals, or shooting fish in a barrel.
Harman might have managed some witty remarks in her duel with Hague, but the substance of some of her answers was limited if not hard to discern. At the time she sounded vague on specifics if not out of touch on the state of the economy. I’m sure that her wit surprised many, but enough PBers remained unconvinced by her answers.
Zogby have issued their interacive electoral map for the US election and their polling for an extensive range of battleground states. Presently Zogby scores the contest :
McCain 160 .. Obama 273 .. Toss Up 105.
Some interesting battleground state polling :
Minnesota
McCain 32% .. Obama 48% .. Barr 8%
Iowa
McCain 38% .. Obama 42% .. Barr 8%
Wisconsin
McCain 38% .. Obama 48% .. Barr 4%
Michigan
McCain 33% .. Obama 47% .. Barr 6%
Indiana
McCain 40% .. Obama 39% .. Barr 7%
Ohio
McCain 38% .. Obama 43% .. Barr 7%
Pennsylvania
McCain 36% .. Obama 46% .. Barr 5%
New Hampshire
McCain 37% .. Obama 40% .. Barr 10%
Virginia
McCain 39% .. Obama 44% .. Barr 5%
North Carolina
McCain 38% .. Obama 47% .. Barr 4%
South Carolina
McCain 41% .. Obama 42% .. Barr 6%
Georgia
McCain 44% .. Obama 38% .. Barr 8%
Florida
McCain 43% .. Obama 39% .. Barr 6%
Texas
McCain 42% .. Obama 39% .. Barr 6%
Missouri
McCain 40% .. Obama 42% .. Barr 6%
Colorado
McCain 38% .. Obama 40% .. Barr 8%
New Mexico
McCain 33% .. Obama 49% .. Barr 9%
Arizona
McCain 39% .. Obama 42% .. Barr 7%
Nevada
McCain 38% .. Obama 38% .. Barr 9%
77- Indeed the Sun article linked to by Mike call her “the deeply-unpopular Ms Harman”.
Then again, they apparently think Hazel Blears is “popular with voters” ???
51 Coldstone.You obviously have not read the comments following the article, which show overwhelming contempt for the line taken by “The Times”.As was said, “The Times” used to be a responsible newspaper - blowing up a minor slip of the tongue , for which the man immediately apologised, into a long, aggressive piece, will of course appeal to someone like yourself.
Fleet of Worlds you can rest easy as the Hefferlump is only giving Cameron faint praise so he can then try to tear him apart.
One problem is the the Red H has either not read or simply not understood, through his perpetual red mist, what Cameron said.
Oopps link to Zogby :
http://www.zogby.com/50state/index.cfm
16/1 still available for Harriet at ladbrokes.
90 - I do worry about poor Hefferlump. Clearly Matron needs to adjust his medication. My fear is that one day a loud, rather wet bang will ring across the Telegraph’s Self Replicating Multi-Media Node, or whatever they call their newsroom these days, and the assembled hacks will stare into Hefferlump’s office to see the great man slumped across his desk, head blown into a red mist by the strain of his hatred of Cammo and all his works. Wasn’t it my MP Ed Vaizey who suggested that he and Hitchens Minor might be Marxist deep cover agents? Perceptive lad, our Ed.
Fathers for justice back on Harriet Harman’s roof..
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7496804.stm
89. “slip of the tongue”?
in some ways that makes it worse
Zogby are pretty useless, Barr is polling far too high in those figures. One interesting point though, self described libertarians appear to break for Obama in a forced choice.
79 Actually I think financial services still forms a smaller proportion of the economy than manufacturing.
95, depends. If a Freudian slip, yes. If an action slip, no.
Action slips are slips of the tongue or behaviour which are unusual and sometimes inappropriate (for example, saying you want peas when you hate them, or pouring your boiling water into the washing basket rather than the sink).
98. …or coming up with a deeply insensitive racist remark in the house of Lords and then not resigning…
You have to hand it to the Conservatives,they are making the running now on almost every policy.
This latest one is worth a few more points on opinion poll ratings IMHO
Tories to offer households ‘financial incentives’ to recycle
Published by Jon Land for 24dash.com in Communities , Environment , Local Government
Tories to offer households ‘financial incentives’ to recycle
Householders who recycle could be rewarded with payments of up to £30 a month under proposals to be revealed by the Conservative Party today.
Shadow Chancellor George Osborne will announce the scheme today at an event in London hosted by an environmental group.
99, did you not read my post? Sometimes people blurt things out they don’t even mean.
Notice, if you will, that the peer immediately withdrew the comment and regretted it. Contrast that with Harman’s unrepetent bigotry against men and whites.
If Harriet makes it, she will be the first pb.com pm.
96 ukpaul. I think that’s a bit harsh. Their primary season polling was mixed but improved considerably at the end of the contest. Barr has also had a fair amount of coverage recently and I think we’ll find his inclusion in questioning helps to bumps his numbers, similiar to ICM and the Lib Dems.
On those numbers Iowa and Colorado are tighter than expected for Obama but the Carolinas, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona better than other recent polling.
102. Does that mean that she will only last an afternoon?
99. Interesting semantics. Can one be DEEPLY insensitive? I suppose one can be deeply sensitive, but superficially insensitive surely?
100, “You have to hand it to the Conservatives,they are making the running now on almost every policy.”
Yes, until you read the small print, that in fact the government is already looking for councils to pilot an incentives scheme. Who’s pinching who’s policies?
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1398903.ece
101. this sort of racist cliche is something you are either in the habit of using, or you aren’t.
as it happens his defence was that it used to be used a lot more in his youth, which would put it more in the freudian slip column.
69-Did he lie about his 14 pints, or do the metroploitan elite not think anyone is able to drink 14 pints?
96. Libertarians tend to be isolationist in foreign policy, and very anti-Iraq.
CNN looks at Obama’s campaign in Georgia :
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/08/obama.red.states/index.html
103. I would be shocked if Barr gets above 5% nationwide. He is a weak fundraiser, not particularly charismatic, and is a recent convert to many positions (although this latter point might not be as harmful as it would look bad for McCain to need to draw attention to it!)
Harman is a moron. Even more of a moron than Gordon. I can see her taking the initiative because she is that stupid. I dont see her surviving the attempt though. She really is unelectable and deeply unpopular with the wider public, although she does appeal to the left wing of the Labour Party. HH to swing the blow, Jack Straw to end up as the compromise candidate. Slightly leftish, a safeish pair of hands, not as obviously unpopular as HH or GB. Balls will wait too long to throw his hat into the ring, Miliband will be unacceptable to the majority of the party as another moderniser.
I assume that HH would wait until Glasgow East is lost before making any attempt, and that the press speculation is just to test the water.
I can see one situation where HH becomes stand in PM but doesnt win a Labour leadership campaign, if Gordon throws a fit and resigns as both PLP leader and PM immediately without waiting for a Labour party leadership vote (he is pretty petty and I wouldnt put it past him), meaning that the government needs a stand in leader, not sure about the PLP rules, but wouldnt that make HH leader and therefore stand in PM?
Labour are stuffed because they suffer the same problem that John Major did and in at least one way their situation is far far worse. Major was stuffed because
1) His cabinet (after 13 years of conservative rule) was full of pygmies. Intellectually and politically. This is true today. No leadership, no vision, no ability.
2) ERM fiasco. No economic credibility at all. Gordon and Labour are in the throes of their total loss of credibility. It takes a generation to recover.
3) Intellectually the party had just lost steam (13 years of rule) - they ended up with the cones hotline, privatising rail and back to basics. No one sensible thought that things were getting worse in 1995-1997, but the Tories were intellectually bankrupt. Labour is now intellectually bankrupt - just listen to the tosh being pumped out.
Big difference today is that the economy is really going down the tubes and everyone thinks Gordon is to blame. Actually Labour are right that a lot of it is the external global economy, but then pretty much all of the credit for the good times is downto the external global economy for which Gordon got a lot of praise.
Any new leader will by definition have even fewer competent people in their cabinet*, they will have no time to bed down, the economy will continue to get worse and it will still look like Labour is to blame. Best case would be to call an election immediately and hope to limit the damage. Most likely they would wait and things will get worse with infighting, incompetence and a horrible economy.
* There are some clever and some useful people on the back benches - John Reid, Alan Milburn, Frank Field. But they are a minority and they would alienate many others, FF’s ideas would be unpalatable to almost any leader. The loss of Ed Balls for example would seem positive, but despite being an incompetent twit, he is still a leader and clever amongst the current crop of labour MPs.
I cannot see for the life in me why Labour would want HH as PM. She has a priveleged background like Cameron, indeed in some respects she would be the ultimate trojan horse for Labour against Cameron as she sent her kids to that selective school where as correct me if i am wrong, Cameron is sending his to a state (or intimated he will)?
The previous HH performance was better than expected but apart from the baseball cap joke, that offset the flak-jacket - could the critics thumbs up be justified: I say no! It felt to me watching the PMQ’s that Hague was there to “break her in” at the despatch box and Hague’s mistake was given that away (His Kinnock moment!). It was amusing, when it was not such the Hague requime people were expecting.
Is Hague doing it again today? Tactically the Tories would be better deploying May as it would show Labour the tories did not take HH as a potential PM or stand in seriously!
For those who look at my posts May is the Tories Neil Kinnock/ Nick Clegg!
109. He also said he continued working while drinking that much, which is ridiculous for a man who doesn’t have a lot more body weight.
109. i think it was more than the “metropolitan elite” that didn’t believe his initial claims!
but when witnesses came forward and said it wasn’t what they remember…
115. and IIRC it was when he was under-age, making it even more unlikely that he was able to handle that much booze.
109 The point re Hagues 14 pints was while it sounded a bit far fetched, it was simply just a bit sad for a potential PM to be bragging about how much he drank. He’s moved on since then. Clegg repeated the same mistake.
113. The Tory cabinet of 1992-1997 was a cabinet of giants compared to the current one - Heseltine, Clarke, Hurd, Rifkind, Howard, Portillo. I also think Labour have been intellectually bankrupt since about 1999, it’s just taken this long for people to care.
Interesting article on Iain Dale regarding the new runway at Heathrow,which has been delayed because the government forgot to carry out a ‘race and gender impact assessment’
Now consultations have to start to see how the proposals will affect ethnic minorities,women and the disabled.
Yes,you gussed right,if you are a white male you don’t count and definetly don’t get consulted.
This looks like Harpersons work,truly a vote winner with the electorate.
120
‘guessed’
McCain trying to disown Bush at the GOP convention:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/08/romney-tight-lipped-on-bushs-convention-role/?iref=werecommend
Atheist soldier sues against the Christianisation of the US military:
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/07/08/atheist.soldier/index.html?iref=mpstoryview
The 14 pints is possible over a day & still working doing physical work but i doubt he managed it! You would feel like shit after doing that for a few days on the trot plus his work would be impaired after a while unless it was over 14 hours? Still you would feel like you had drunk at least 6 pints i should imagine after 14 hours because i think you only digest one unit of alchol every hour? Silly claim, maybe a pint every other stop but he would have been shit faced. I do not believe given his height wait he would have drunk so much.
I am a vetran drinker! Who tries not to these days as it is bad for my health! (More importantly money!)
118. actually I think he desperately needed something that gave him a veneer of normality or cool. he already had the blue rinse brigade on his side but everyone I knew thought he was a freak.
the fact that he chose an obvious lie as his ’story’ shows catastrophic judgement. did he really think noone would question it?
124 - Yeah, who would have thought that a senior politician would tell such a stupid story?
http://politics.guardian.co.uk/redbox/page/0,9030,862856,00.html
119. I also think Labour have been intellectually bankrupt since about 1999:
Crikey your an optimist - think they have been intellectually bankrupt since 1994 and the invention of new Labour!
That is not to say Blair was not succesful as Labour leader but as PM…..
Only constitutional changes, which would have happened if any Labour government had taken power - Labour had a referunda in 74-79 parliament for Scotland and wales IIRC.
Labour’s only real achievement is the minimum wage, which ironically the low paid (Building workers) don’t like in my experience of meeting them. This is because some in the building trade adfvised me they were undercut by Polish immigrants who accepted the minimum wage instead of higher rates once paid for some building work! Some in the manufacturing sector may also have suffered - come to think about it: Did the Manufacturing sector shed more jobs at an increased rate due to the minimum wage. Employment has fallen dramatically under Labour in that sector over the last 11 years.
126 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz, bye!
123 - He was delivering crates of soft drinks from his father’s firm to pubs, pretty physical work. I think he said he was offered a pint at each pub, but didn’t always finish it. Sounds plausible, especially if it was a hot day.
124. WHo cares? Hague will never be PM now and it is unlikely he will be Tory leader again
Might be good tactics to go easy on HH today, though a couple of references to her political ambitions wouldn’t go amiss. If she looks vaguely competent it’ll enrage Gordon, encourage speculations of ’splits’, boost her own delusions of adequacy, hasten the defenestration of Gordon while offering a replacement that even fewer people would vote for.
“Never interrupt the enemy while he is making a mistake,” as Nappy once said.
103-Some of those figures look highly suspect. Does anyone really think McCain is behind in Arizona?
99 – “deeply insensitive racist remark”
It’s that kind of response that has rendered the term ‘racists’ virtually meaningless nowadays, by reducing it to no more than a trivial insult or in this case political opportunism you adulterate its true offensiveness.
The BNP are racists!! And the electorate says “so what” according to Ed, we all are.
Does HH really want to preside over the coming financial tsunami ?
“In Britain there is an almost pathetic lack of understanding of the potential downside of boom-bust credit cycles.
And hence the British Prime Minister’s evidently ludicrous self-belief that he had presided as Chancellor of the Exchequer over an economic miracle as opposed to a totally irresponsible debt binge.”
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23513270-details/UK+in+denial+on+housing%2C+says+the+prophet+of+fear/article.do
Harman will be the biggest put off for Labour ever - she will be worse than Brown. People are sick and tired of upper middle class people pretending to be working class, playing gender and race politics against white working class people. The white working classes in the UK can see what a nasty piece of work that smelly anglophobic feminist is all about. Harperson will finish Labour off not just a generation, but for good.
How many women want to vote for a man hater? How many ethnic minorities will vote for a white hater? Not many, she’ll only appeal to those who have deep rooted personal problems, usually those public school dropouts , but there again that’s what Labour are full of……. Middle class idealists who want to become working class and share working class problems. The only way you’ll do that is if you start up your own small business with your own capital, fight against credit fraud, fight against a determined army of consumer action terrorists, fight against weak and vexatious litigantsin county courts/employment tribunals and once you succeed you will earn your promotion to the working classes, but I doubt many of you are capable. Most of you will continue sponging your bloated public sector salaries and pensions while working class people work 24/7 just to make a living.
The Labour Party are the most classist, racist, sexist, bigoted group ever. Down with Nu Labour scum, please Harman take over the Labour Party and run them into the ground where you all belong.
127. White Flag already! You been reading Brown’s book?
131 Peter2. Of all those states Arizona looks like an outlier. However other pollsters have McCain winning his home state by single digits.
“101. this sort of racist cliche is something you are either in the habit of using, or you aren’t.”
The mentality of the inquisitor through the ages.
66. But no right of centre woman would see anything appealing about Harriet Harman.
131 - Jack,
Given her approval is in the high sixties (well above McCain’s instate job approval), how about Obama choosing Governor Janet Napolitano? Could that bring Arizona into play, if he only leads by single digits at present?
If the narrative begins at the Convention that McCain mihgt not even win his home state, that will scare a lot of donors away, and could seal the election for Obama early.
She is a brilliant and popular governor, she would get women and hispanics out in force, she’s an interesting version of Sibelius, and would swing Arizona for sure against any other opponent.
138 was meant for Jack W at 136, and was in reference to the open position for Democratic VP candidate
134. Yes, I can just see HH campaign song *Common People* by Pulp!
It is interesting the political class has neglected to comment on the £4BN the tax payer may have to payout on equitable life: One wonders whether this early test of Brown’s regulatory framework could have prevented the Billions being wasted on Northern Rock?
137. are you saying that’s wrong? do you find yourself occasionally blurting out that sort of stuff in public accidentally?
£4 Billion of Tax Payer money may be paid out due to regulatory failure by government agencies: Now remind me what caused Northern Rock - Anything to do with Regulators???
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/09/neqlife109.xml
141 I occasionally say things that are offensive, inadvertently, and apologise immediately. I’m sure you do the same.
138 Svelte Morus. Interesting possibility. I’m not convinced it’ll help in Arizona. There’s something of the Lib Dem decapitation strategy to it and it might provoke/enhance the underdog status that McCain has been cultivating.
Mike- all this talk of the luscious Harriett becoming labour leader is just a game of double bluff to strengthen Gordon’s position.
An effective way methinks of Gordon staying on
“Get rid of me folks, and guess who takes my place. The lovely Harriett.”
With this kind of talk Labour will never rid itself of Gordon because this alternative is unthinkable.
143- I have never said anything offensive to anyone, ever.
146 What did you think about our discussion on badgers, yesterday?
146
Hideously white Henley? etc……
O/T I see that Bercow wants to make it a criminal offence (punishable by up to two years imprisonment) for a doctor to advise a woman against having an abortion.
Who will rid us of this turbulent hobbit?
146 - I’m sure “luscious Harriett” would agree with you.
149. Yeah. Where’s a Ringwraith when you need one?
There’s no doubt, Harriet Harman is someone who would actually do worse as PM than Brown.
If people think that Labour’s funding is drying up now, then it would reach rock bottom with her. I would expect the Lib Dems to at least be level with Labour in the polls, and a very very heavy Election defeat.
re 152. Evidence?
149 - He must of been misquoted, surely?
There are any number of medical reasons why a doctor might advise against certain types of termination - how could you reconcile that with their duty to give the best medical advice they can?
And what is the motivator? Is there any evidence of doctors forcing women to have children they don’t want?
re 145. Tyson - you maybe right. It’s like the old Richard Nixon quip about Spiro Agnew - “Who’s want to assassinate me with Spiro as VP?”
141 I do think the age of people making these sort of remarks needs to be taken account of. My 78 year old father-in-law frequently has to be told not to say certain things - he has referred to something as n*—r brown, talked about himself as ‘working like a b—k’ when undertaking vigorous exercise and many other inappropriate remarks.
Is he racist? no - he’s an equal opportunities misanthrope who’s language was developed in a different age. An old person talking about woodpiles and apologising for being offesnsive is different from a 50 year old calling his employees ‘hideously white’ and being proud of it.
153 - wasn’t there some poling during the deputy election about what the impact of the various candidates would be on Labour’s electoral appeal if elected? I could be wrong, here, but I thought Harman made it worse.
Granted, it’s extrapolation, but….
138-Funnily enough a colleague of mine from Arizona froths at the mouth at the mention of Napolitano.
Tyson’s offensiveness is more of a continuum, apparently.
149, Bercow by name, berk by nature.
151, I knew you’d miss Michael Howard’s leadership style.
On Monday I put the grand sum of £12 on her at 16/1 to be the next occupant of Number 10 on Betfair’s “Next PM” market. The best you can get this morning is 5/1.
Mike, you’ve really got to cut this sort of stuff out when talking about betfair and illiquid markets - it might superficially make your tip look good but it gives a very false impression.
In illiquid betfair markets you should really quote the back & lay price (ideally to decent money). e.g. the best price you can currently get on HH at betfair is 6/1 - but only for £5 - and there is £108 wanting to back her at 10/1.
156-Many people I know far younger than both age groups you mention casually talk like this in this manner.
They just don’t happen to work in medialand and associated suburbs.