Can Ken bounce back again?
July 16th, 2008
Is 10/1 good value on the newt-lover returning in 2012?
I’ve just finished the book by the BBC’s Giles Edwards and the Telegraph’s Jonathan Isaby on Boris V. Ken: How Boris Johnson Won London
It’s a great holiday read for political anoraks and gives a good flavour and some interesting insights into this amazing battle. Just going through this again and three things struck me about Ken.
He totally underestimated his Tory opponent which left him without the clarity of message that was needed. He believed his own “Boris the buffoon” rhetoric.
He was harmed by his handling of the spate of media stories about his custodianship of City Hall. He should have adopted a more conciliatory approach and his technique of seeking to smear his attackers made him look shifty only added to the impression of untrustworthiness.
But he is hugely resilient and a has it in him to come back. He learns lessons quickly, and if he could get Labour’s nomination for 2012 he would stand a good chance of getting his old job back.
So how realistic is that? Will today’s news of the investigation into his City Hall spending habits come to haunt him. Will his age in 2012, 66, just be too old? He’s made amazing come-backs in his career before and I would not put it past him to do it again. The next Mayoral fight looks set to take place midway through the first term of a Tory government just when the gilt is starting to come off.
Ladbrokes are offering 10/1 on Ken being the next mayor - possibly worth a small punt if you don’t meant letting the bookie have your cash for nearly four years.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No.
depends a lot on what Boris gets up to over the next few years - he has been less than dazzling so far.
I’m sure he’ll find something more interesting to spend his time on. Not many 62 year olds retain a burning ambition.
Anyway, he’s been there, done that and got the t-shirt, surely?
Too many variables. Boris could be dire or great, the Westminster situation (even assuming a Tory victory) is too uncertain, etc etc.
Personally I think it’s unlikely.
I have always suspected that Ken would not bow out from public life. He is unlikely to be selected for a return to parliament. I can’t see him being willing to be elevated to the Lords. His only chance is to consider fighting again to be Mayor.
However it is a long road ahead - his voice will soon get lost as new figures emerge and new directions are sought.
A vote for Ken in 2012 would not be a forward looking one.
3. at the moment he seems to be spending a lot of his time on carving out an unofficial “leader of the opposition to the mayor” role.
2012: being a couple of years into a Tory govt will help Boris, but I doubt Boris will help himself very much.
I suspect that once the forensic audit of the LDA finishes, Livingstone will be PNG, within and without the Labour party.
I imagine that Boris, who has so far treated Ken with a spirit of quite unrequited generosity, is going to have much fun dragging him through the mud.
There must be a serious question about his health, before any other considerations.
As Labour’s candidate - or as an independent? There’ll be a couple of hundred ex-Labour MP’s ready to punch him out of the way for a shot at being Mayor of London. Perhaps Ruth Kelly/Wacky Backy Jacqui/Ed Balls, when they gets bored of signing on?
He’s been pathetic in his carping since leaving office and has lost a lot of goodwill he gained with his dignified loss on the night.
And there are still skeletons to be pulled out of city hall cupboards.
He might get back into Westminster if he wants to but into City Hall? No.
8. worth pointing out that despite Boris’ widely proclaimed witch hunt, both through “independent audit” and Boris’ pals at the standard, the only corruption scandal thrown up so far was Lewis: his own appointment.
The other issue is that it will be hard for him to keep in the public eye for four years without an official role. He’d need some London based job to keep him in people’s thoughts for four years. Maybe columnist for the Standard?
O/T US inflation at 26 year high - up 1.1% in June. Yikes!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7509729.stm
At 66 there is no chance of Ken making a comeback, he’ll probably be enjoying his life to much anyway.
As the next Mayoral election will be, (most probably) half way through Cameron’s stint in government, I’d put my money on the Libdem candidate.
10. true, he would definitely face competition from ex-Lab MPs by then
11. if Boris messes up, this carping will resonate. if not, it won’t.
@15:
Ken: giving up his time to help Boris up his game.
You have to admit, it’s very generous.
The BBC have given Livingstone a lot of airtime as an ‘expert’ on all things London, from knife crime to buses. But they would, wouldn’t they? The shock of Boris winning on the left-wing establishment was truly seismic.
But as time goes on he will sound to everyone what he does to me: a carping loser who is desperately trying to rewrite history.
Other more pressing events will leave him in the shadows and any untoward results from the audits will give him a briefly revived place in the light like a moth moving towards a fire.
By 2012 the whole scenery will be different in so many ways and Labour will almost certainly want a new face which does not remind people of their incompetent and sleazey past.
12. These are ongoing with plenty under investigation and much more to come out..the old newt isnt out of the woods by any means…The vetting of Lewis was a mistake (and despite desperate attempts to broaden its implications from a foaming, frothing left a mistake in vetting is all it was)..
Livingstone is history…he just doesnt seem to know it yet.. a bit pathetic in a way.
I’m tempted to agree with 14 (although it’s partly wishful thinking).
Certainly if it was Boris mid-term in a Tory government against Ken for Labour, that’s got to be good news for the Lib Dems (as long as we can find a decent candidate….)
17
By 2012 the whole scenery will be different in so many ways and Labour will almost certainly want a new face which does not remind people of their incompetent and sleazey past.
By 2012 we will have forgotten, Labour’s incompetent and sleazy past, being totally consumed by the Tories incompetent and sleazey present: can’t wait!!
There are strong signals coming from Ken that he’ll run in 2012, but maybe that’s just part of his way of dealing with the sense of bereavement he’s suffered since losing. Give it two years, and he may be less keen to throw his hat in to the ring. In short, I don’t think he’ll seek the nomination.
Has there been an opinion poll on Boris as Mayor yet? If so what was the result?
Coldcojones I am pleased to read you agree with me about the current incompetent and sleazey Labour government.
11 - much as I like Ken - I voted for him and wish he’d won - I do agree. The way he conceded and his behaviour in the last TV debates was very admirable. Since then he’s looked very sour grape-like.
Glasgow East by-election - best prices
Bookies:
Lab 4/7 (Sporting Bet)
SNP 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
LD 100/1 (Ladbrokes and Paddy Power)
Con 500/1 (Sporting Bet)
Betfair:
Lab 1.57
SNP 2.56
LD 200
Any Other 400
Con 420
I can’t believe Ken will be able to retain his quickly slimming appeal for another four years. If Boris does well then Ken’s got no chance (Boris will ask for another four years to complete what he’s started); and if Boris somehow stuffs up this golden opportunity then there will be a long long list of Labour people wanting to gain their party’s nomination.
On the other hand, i’m in Birmingham so I hear next to nothing about the London mayoralty up here. Which begs the question: has there been any indication of Boris’s approval ratings yet?
Slightly off topic - but I’ve heard from a few people that Boris made a tit of himself over the free festival in East London last week. Apparently he removed the anti-racism message from the event, and when protestors tried to collect signatures against this they were forcibly - and very visibly removed. That’s very bad PR. As I say, it’s been mentioned to me by several (well, three) different groups of people who drink in my pub. Of course you can dismiss them as middle-class, educated, twenty/thirty-something urbanites who probably supported Ken anyway.
22 All governments end up sleazy and incompetent, thats the nature of things!
What we will be doing in a couple of years time will be removing a
sleazy and incompetent government and replacing them with a sleazy and incompetent opposition.
Once the Tories are back in power, the Sunday Morning papers will once again be really, really interesting to read!
3 & 14 Ken is has absolutely not cut the option of standing of again. Not guaranteed that he will or that he would win the selection or election but he is certainly thinking about it. Indeed last saturday night he was addressing Labour members in west london. Not the actions of someone who isn’t running for something.
14. Lib Dems winning the london mayoralty … the basis for a stand up routine surely?
24 - amazing to see the Cons effectively behind Solidarity and A.N.Other in the bookies odds!
i should hope that there is something better than Livingstone in 2012. the chap is too old. remember that we shall soon be entering the new era with Obama and Cameron. youth rules!
Yes.
1. We know he is more popular than the labour party
2. We know he still wants the job (though that may change)
3. nostalga factor. Without term limits Bill would have been president again by now.
4. it’ll be the olympics election and i think managerial competene will be key.
I’m not saying that he will win, just that he could.
21. I did a lengthy yougov poll which concentrated on Mayor Boris a few days ago.
29 You are easily amazed. A Tory win in Glasgow East would be a truly incomparable political event. There is no precedent for it - nor any rational basis for thinking it possible. Labour winning Henley would have been far more likely!
Well after the next general election, the entire left wing will be thrown into turmoil (as post-1979), so who knows whether come 2012 there will even be a Lib Dem candidate and a Labour candidate as we know them?
28
Half way through Cameron’s first, (perhaps only ) session in government, Labour still tainted by 12/13 years of government, the Libdems will be high in the polls, a good candidate could see them win in London, quite easily.
Glasgow East - voter turnout
Ladbrokes: ? (is the market down now?)
Betfair:
30%-40% 1.35
30% or less 1.6
40%-50% 2.2
50% or more 5
There is no action whatsoever on the new Betfair “SNP Percentage Vote” market. Not even Icarus (who requested the market) has made an appearance!
I have only jsut seen the PMQ session today and I cannot believe that Brown blames the vote against the John Lewis list recently on “the action of a few people have brought into disrepute the House… ‘
Remind me again how many Labour ministers and Labour MPs voted to keep the allowances. The government voted in effect against the reforms. So he is condemning his own party as bringing the House into disrepute.
35 - I laughed at first, but I suppose anything is possible! There’s a chance that the Lib Dems could be the Opposition to a Conservative government in 2014 maybe?
The problem for Johnson is that our left-wing media establishment were obsessively convinced he’d be a disaster that they now hype every footling incident in an attempt to vindicate their doom-mongery. If Lewis had been one of Livingstone’s cronies, no one would have given a stuff that he fell out with a few CofE bishops several aeons ago.
36. ladbrokes prices still there and unchanged since they were released yesterday.
I don’t think another Ken challenge would fly. He will be 66 or 67 at the next election and over 70 by the end of his term. So it would look like nothing more than a last hurrah - running merely for the sake of avenging defeat. It would invite a campaign based on the same sleaze issues that marred the end of Ken’s term.
Labour would be best off going for somebody else of a different generation. Boris did not win by miles, has been unspectacular so far and the indications are it is most likely to be mid-term in a Tory government when he comes up for re-election. Labour is likely to be in the driving seat to regain it and better to do that with somebody of a new generation, with energy and new ideas who will contribute to Labour’s national message (most probably in opposition) at that stage.
26 Stonch do you buy your DVD players in the pub too? What about a motor, almost new? Got it outside Guv. Must be real, they are blokes in my pub.
29. well some were arguing yesterday that this byelection is good for the Cons and they can roadtest some ideas, or some such garbage.
not at all that they will be blanked out of the news agenda and risk losing their deposit.
40. Thanks Shadsy, but there must be a glitch in the link at Bestbetting. And I cannot find the market at Ladbrokes.com either.
39. don’t think anyone is doom mongering about Boris, just saying that he has not yet dispelled his “bound to mess up” tag and replaced it with a “managerially competent” reputation, even amongst Con party members, which means his former opponent may (or may not) be good value at 10/1 to come back.
The Lib Dems could win if they had a transcendental candidate. however with a work-a-day one (MP/Brian paddick) its a lost cause. You can’t apply focus style, hyper localist campaigning to such a huge direct election.
45: ‘don’t think anyone is doom mongering about Boris’
Cast your eyes over Zoe Williams’s now notorious piece, old chap. If that’s not doom-mongering I don’t know what is:
http://tinyurl.com/6pqnoa
43. Cameron’s ‘responsibility’ speech was aired courtesy of the byelection. Didn’t see that getting blanked.
39
Oh! it was the, ‘Left Wing’ media was it? Go back into the archive of the Daily Mail, they ran the Lewis story pretty strongly.
The idea that the present Conservative Party is being subjected to a constant barrage of criticism from the, ‘Liberal Left’ is abusrd, most of the strongest criticism comes from the, ‘Right’
See Heffer today, if Heff don’t like Labour, (And you wouldn’t expect him too) its Cameron that gets,’Both Barrels’
Mr Cameron picked up the Duncan Smith line on welfarism in Glasgow 10 days ago, as I noted last week. Last night George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, spoke of the need to reduce the demands on government in order to fix our “broken society”. Are they at last getting it? No.
Any suggestions that they might were dispelled by Mr Cameron’s dismal performance on the Today programme yesterday, in which he gave a flat “no” to a question about whether, in the light of the economic downturn, it was the right time to abandon his party’s foolish promise to match Labour’s spending policies.
Because Mr Cameron has learned nothing and has forgotten nothing he even trotted out, without a hint of satire, the old claptrap about “sharing the proceeds of growth”.
This means always spending more public money, even though it is clear we already spend too much. If you can marry this philosophy to Mr Osborne’s about reducing demands on the state, you’re a better man than I am.
Then, talking to the CBI, Mr Cameron made his most economically ignorant observation yet, about making it easier for bad businesses to avoid liquidation. He really doesn’t get it.
The late Prof Hayek wasn’t being a tease when he said that bankruptcies were good because they drove inefficiencies out of the economy. He meant it, and he was right.
Mr Cameron takes us back to Heatho-Wilsonian socialism, propping up lame ducks and wasting valuable resources that ought to be put to more productive use.
Some of you get cross with me for being negative about Mr Cameron, but this is an object lesson in why he isn’t up to it. All around us is the monument to Labour’s profligacy, its penal taxation and its addiction to welfarism.
Mr Cameron holds out hope of a fourth New Labour term, only with himself as Prime Minister, continuing Labour’s gluttonous public spending, coddling failed businesses and maintaining a massive state apparatus.
Isn’t Glasgow East proof enough of just how utterly poisonous that sort of thing is? Or does he seriously want us to have a lot more?
I imagine Trevor Philips might be interested in being Labour candidate next time. Maybe he could use it as a springboard to become Labour Party leader at some point (he’s much more impressive than many of those currently touted as Brown’s successor, ie Balls and Harman).
49 Coldcojones good grief you have become an uber-Thatcherite all of a sudden,wanting the undiminished law of the jungle for business, let them go hang and their employees with them.
Ps the Hefferlump has always been against Dave because he will not promise to do what UKIP - Heffer supports them - tells him to do.
As you know, a bully spurned is an angry, angry moron.
41 Yes. It’s a bit sad watching Ken pop up all over the place attacking Boris - he is obviously in denial about his defeat. But Boris has made an uncertain start and looks a bit lost in the job at the moment. He could well struggle in the context of a mid-term Tory government and the inevitable crises and overspends that will emerge as the Olympics draw nearer.
50. he was a GLA member but quit if I recall
49. Sir..I dont know why you insist on constantly referencing Heffer as some sort of indication that Cameron is a disaster..you do it almost every week and its as boring today as it always is..I think you have made your point..Heffer is buffoon and is furious that the people arent listening to him..we get it.
In reality, all this sort of guff shows is that the Cameron project is working.
Still ist good to see all the Lefties seem to be relying on Cameron being unopular two years into his government as their sole crumbs of comfort..I remember doing the same thing in 97..11 years of purgatory, an illegal war and many, many billions of wasted tax pounds later I have been proved right. Hurrah…
Further to this morning’s thread, where Alan J mentioned that it was not only Labour-run England that had strikes, but also SNP-run Scotland, please note that this extends throughout the entire United Kingdom (and other bits of Europe), irrespective of the parties in power. Eg:
- Northern Ireland (DUP/Sinn Fein govt.): ‘Council workers staging strike’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7508659.stm
- Wales (Labour/Plaid Cymru govt.): ‘Council workers strike over pay’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/7508192.stm
54. do you think that Heffer’s/UKIP’s views have just gone away amongst the public at large, or do you think these people see Cameron as a way to get Lab out of power, and will then open fire subsequently?
@56:
Wait, what? You think “the public”, all secretly agree with Simon Heffer?
John McCain: Realist or Neocon?
http://tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=220a2dab-3d4b-45e4-9355-b03d44b6b844
49
I didn’t say they were my views, but I’ll bet that there are more than a few Tory MP’s whose views they reflect: John Redwood for instance?
The threat to Cameron does not come from the left, (why should it, he’s a member of it) it comes from the right. The right will soon lose patience if once in, ‘Office they are not in power’
The Conservative Party is once again led by a Whig, and as Enoch Powell said, ‘Of all political categories, the Whig and the Tory are the least compatible.
The ‘Boris is bound to mess up’ tag is propagated by those who wish that result. He has to face down hundreds of disgruntled Ken Livingstone placemen, who still work for the Mayor’s office, who can ensure that Boris gets to look stupid very easily by not cooperating.
It will take a while to turf out the real troublemakers. No doubt the Industrial Tribunals are rubbing their hands at the increased hours they anticipate. He’ll refuse to be beaten by them, and will carry out his programme, but the experience might be terminal to his willingness to hold any further public office. Good uncorrupt people tend to get slaughtered by the system, while Ken understands the system and permitted corruption to let rip on all sides.
54 If the posts on these boards are anything to go by the UKIP tendency is just waiting for Cameron to get into government so they can start to destroy the EU - Cameron may well come to regret not having had his “Clause 4 moment” with the Eurosceptics at the start of his leadership.
59 I thought Cameron was a truer Tory in the old school sense than all leaders since SuperMac. Thatcher was the nearer to an old Liberal. Hence the problems she caused in the end. Anyway, how relevant/useful is this today?
I agree that Cameron’s problems do sit to his right. Labour have missed the boat on this sadly.
@61:
I think you’ll find that most Tories are happy to retain some sort of working relationship with the EU for the time being.
The Better Off Out crowd are a minority, albeit one that the majority of Tories instinctively sympathise with.
Stuart [36] - Icarus thinks turnout might surprise us at more than 50% - However I want good odds for that. Have reduced my initial request from 50 to 30.
Speaking from a very shell-shocked and very scared City of London, I am beginning to think that all bets may be off. The last couple of weeks have taken the credit crunch to a totally new level of difficulty. That the Unions are trying to prevent the erosion of their members living standards is understandable, but in the end I think it will only stoke the flames. The breakdown of the US credit market is reaching a scale that nobody has ever seen before- on a conference call yesterday, an analyst gave the Americans a less than 50% chance of being able to hold their AAA credit rating. Ironically although we are told that humiliation beckons for Washington, it seems to me that the *holders* of the paper are just as much over a barrel- and China for one looks awful. There are very few places to hide…
In this context “sharing the proceeds of growth” is frankly laughable.
“Yet once more unto the breach…”
Heffer clearly reflects a certain view and has some sympathy from certain people of a certain age but I dont believe a Cameron government will suddenly revert to a ‘Heffer’ agenda any more than Blair reverted to a true socialist agenda in his first term.
(He didnt let Brown start his true socialist profligacy and economic incompetence until the second term and boy arent we paying for it now).
Cameron will stay in the centre, I personally think he is truly the heir to Blair in that regard. He will want a second term and if there are MP’s and members (and I think we all know there are)who are hoping for a post-election conversion they will no doubt share Mr Heffer’s dissapointment and cause some trouble at the time. How much trouble will depend on the state of the economy and the size of any Cameron Majority.
I am personally uncomfortable with Camron and Osbournes insistence on matching Brown’s profligacy on public spending and I half suspect a U-turn on this as we approach the election, particulalry if the poll leads continue at current levels. He is playing it safe for now in that respect.
I see Conservatives, in the shape of Martin Coxall, rowing back from major confrontation with the EU.
So no rows in the Conservative party about higher taxes,no rows on coying up to the EU. They must want power at any price!
56 ed, Heffer’s UKIP type views are at best supported by about 5% of the voters. There is however a much bigger % of eurosceptics that I would estimate at close to 60% of voters (based on the 10 Lisbon surveys).
They do not want various aspects of the EC, but there are many other issues that come ahead of the EC as can be seen in the polling. Economy, Crime, NHS, Education, Immigration etc.
When the Conservatives take over, any change in the arrangements for power will be put to a referendum of the people (like Ireland) but unlike Ireland any No vote will be final for the UK Government.
61. If you believed the posts on this board, Cameron would already have been sacked as Tory leader as his election and policy stance was expected to prompt a mass defection of ‘right-wing’ Tories to UKIP and a massive upsurge in UKIP’s electoral fortunes.
Alternatively, you might want to engage with reality instead.
62
Mrs Thatcher’s’ ‘Liberalism’ (Her Father was a Liberal) came from her preference for the Manchester School:-
http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/schools/manchester.htm
As opposed to the more traditional Tory belief in, ‘Imperial Preference and protectionism’
Not quite the same as being a Whig.
Why would Boris struggle with the inevitable Olympics overspends,this was exclusively a Livingstone / New Labour project?
71 - By that argument, New Labour weren’t to blame for the Dome…
65 So you expect that the US will have to print masses of dollars to avoid the collapse of the banking system and this will cause a large drop in the value of $ assets and/or much higher inflation?
71
So Lord Coe, how long has he been a member of New Labour?
72
The Dome was agreed by the last Conservative government! Blair intended to scrap it, he was talked out of it by Heseltine.
The Dome was a bad Tory idea made worse by Labour!!
If past experience is anything to judge by, Ken’s reputation is likely to be higher in 4 years time than it is now. If there is a Tory government nationally then he’ll beat Boris. 66 isn’t that old, assuming he is still fit and healthy.
But the clincher is looking at who the alternatives for Labour might be. I guess there might be someone who we have never heard of now emerge in four years time, but which of the current crop of Labour politicians would be as strong a candidate? The only ones that I think are plausible are Dawn Butler and Jon Cruddas.
The thing which might stop him is if his factional opponents are still about and in charge of the party machine, and they decide to stitch up the Labour nomination for one of their own. In which case, what odds that he runs and wins again as an Independent
I expect the Labour party will want someone younger, but I wouldn’t put it past Ken to run as an independent again. That way he could come second in the first round and take the bulk of the Labour votes in the second. Vaguely plausible. But are we sure Boris will run again anyway? If he does have prime ministerial ambitions as many suspect, surely it’s better to quit while you’re ahead and quit in time for the election after next, which will presumably be in 2014, thus ensuring himself a position in Cameron’s second cabinet (if Cameron wins a second term) and be in a good position for a likely leadership contest in 2017ish if Cameron does the sensible thing and quits after two terms rather than hanging around too long like Maggie and Blair.
66: ‘Cameron will stay in the centre’
I agree, and he will be aided by Labour who I predict will go on a strange journey after a massive defeat in 2010. They will become a heavily statist, authoritarian party - eurosceptic, anti-capital.
65 Cicero, thanks for that insight I wish it did not look as bad.
It is a pity that some on here have decried any Conservative who has voiced concerns on the economy. Maybe your view can help the non-Conservatives to think again.
When most sectors of the economy are shedding jobs and are in decline such as Finance, House building, Retail, Services etc we are left with only a sectors few such as Agriculture and Energy with any growth.
75: ‘The Dome was a bad Tory idea’
Nothing wrong with The Dome as a concept. Just a shame that the content became a tacky monument to Mandelson’s vanity.
65 agree. The UK will be downgraded when the true horror of Labours overspend becomes apparent.
65: But surely we are “well-placed” for this?
Bad bad things are happening, but no-one seems to be listening much. Instead we have a supremely irrelevant thread about hypothetical events nearly 4 years into the future, when the minutiae of today’s politics will be a distant memory.
Now this is a genuine set of questions prompted by the EU points up thread. Does anyone agree that…
The EU has so far come out quite well in the credit crisis and food/oil shock?
The EU is an asset to our economy right now?
Maybe the CAP will be to an extent justified if the EU has to fall back on its own food production capacity?
72
I went to the Dome closing down auction. The strangest experience you could imagine.
It had its own TV suite with a zillion pounds worth of AV equipment. They had a leased line to the BT Tower which cost £60k a year and was used once, for New Years Eve party when Bliar linked arms with the queen. I got chatting to a woman from an Israeli TV company who wanted to buy the TV suite to export back home. She shook her head in disbelief at the waste. The whole place summed up New Labour nicely, huge spending, showing off rather than delivery, media-obsessed, failure, blame-game, and finally liquidation then for sale to highest bidder.
83 ha ha ha good spoof
83. You are going to have to explain that because on first flush my answer is the same as 85. i.e. you have got to be joking…
79 Most sectors of the economy are not shedding jobs , some sectors are in trouble clearly , Finance and House Building ( but not Construction as a whole ) are the worst hit , but that won’t stop you trying to talk this country into a recession .
83. Answering your 3 points in sequence:
Yes.
Depends on whether you are an importer or an exporter.
No. There is no shortage of food. Food is now more expensive so the subsidies are less justified, not more.
Is Boris getting, ‘Cold Feet?’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/16/boris.london
Regarding Ken.
Boris has no choice but to bury Ken through the investigations into the waste and excesses. When that translates into lower council bills, Ken will have be damaged goods and will not be capable of winning Labour’s selection.
Adam Boulton just said on Sky that “The chances of brown surviving is no better that 50-50″” Thats a pretty strong statement from a lobby jounalist
86, Not a joke. So far it’s not EU institutions that are in trouble. British industry has been doing well exporting to the new Eu states. Re. the CAP, well I had to throw in a googlie.
89. The most interesting thing in that report is yet another bizarre and mendacious rant by Livingstone that the article links to…its very relevant to this thread..somone really should tell the man to retreat with some shred of his intregity and reputation intact..
83 - It is going to be interesting to watch the performance of the central banks over the next 18 months or so. It appears the ECB will be pursuing a purist view of hammering inflation through interest rates. The Fed appears to be prepared to pursue economic performance over and above inflation hence the massively aggressive rate cuts. The MPC appears to be plotting a middle way neither purist nor particularly favouring growth over inflation.
83. The CAP has paid farmers to keep fields empty, in order to keep supply down and prices high. So no.
92. It was the CAP thing that threw me..I can see what you mean on the first two..then again I am not a strongly Eurosceptic Tory..I doubt you’ll convince others. Our exports to the EU are assisted by not being in the Euro of course..our products are relatively cheap to the eurozone.
Part of the reason that the EU has not had as many problems with the credit crunch, is that across much of Europe its more normal to rent than own your own home.
I certainly hope that Ken sweeps back into London in 4 years time.
Afternoon all, Labour snouts have rejected a Tory motion to get rid of the John Lewis list. Much wringing of hands by Pa Broon nae doot
97. That’s a bit of a myth but it is true that we have uniquely weak tenancy rights and a high level of social housing.
http://uk.propertyfinder.com/2/pf/da/msn/articles/dispellingUkOwnershipMyth.do;jsessionid=8E25D89A0368E97B99979098C90C400C
83. The EU is getting concerned….
http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,566161,00.html
100. Interesting. Thanks.
I don’t think Livingstone has a hope in hell, he looked old and past it in the last context. In another 4 years he will be just a clapped out wreck of the politician he was before. The batton will be past to a new generation of Labour politician, without incumbancy Labour will need youth. Livingstone does not supply youth, he is part of the London political furniture.
Those who doubt Boris and say he will shoot himself in the foot said this all the way through the contest. They were wrong! Another thing you have to look at is the number of Votes Boris got in the first round, still beat Livingstone with all his transfers.
Think Boris is likely to do well in 2012, providing he does not Bonk anyone other than his wife or make some gaffe. Boris it must be remebered has thrown all is political capital into being Mayor. He is no longer an MP - He will want to be a succesful London mayor: I think he will be.
DOWN: finance - and all its offshoots, housebuilding, estate agents, solicitors, retail, transport, chemicals, - even Electricity and gas production down last month, tourism, travel agents
UP: Farmers, farm machinery suppliers, Construction (other than House building).
STATIC: Public Services.
91. Very interesting; I couldn’t work out why David Cameron made Brown the issue at PMQs; could have been because he knew it would stay the issue, or because ‘one more push’ might do it.
101 Interesting Article. Oh well, more doom and gloom. Had hoped the Germans might pull us through. If the economy is in universal retreat, maybe it’s time to revive the business plans for flint tools.
104 Estate Agents! Now I know this is very wrong, but I am not hugely sympathetic to these guys.
DOWN - Advertising, Media
Talking about Ken Livingstone standing in 4 years time is ludicrous.
Most of the 45 million Brits who live out with the M25 don’t give a stuff about who the Mayor of London is. Indeed many of us couldn’t care less if London sinks below the Thames!
1) He could be dead
2) He could be leader of the Labour Party
3) There might not be a Labour Party
4) He might be in the House of Lords
5) He might be in Brussels as an EU Commissioner
6) Boris could be an overwhelming success
7) In 2010 the Tories could sieze around a dozen seats in the Greater London area thereby totally changing the party dynamics for 2 years later.
It’s as bizarre as debating Tory in-fighting over Europe after the GE when we are 23 months away from the GE. In the meantime hundreds of thousands of citizens may lose their jobs and homes including some PBers (though I sincerely hope not).
Let’s get Glasgow East over with first.
106. Yes. Particularly interesting (and surprising) is the EU opinion that the US stands a better chance of avoiding recession than Europe does.
Still won’t stop them passing daft legislation, though.
Far more importantly Jacqui Smith has admitted her constantly incompetent department still hasn’t implemented a number of the most important recommendations made by the Soham enquiry.
Nick Robinson said mood at Westminster had changed - now Brown was safe at least until the Autumn.
Cameron really laid into Brown today -with a feather duster!
105- I thought Cameron sounded quite mean today at PMQ’s. Like Blair he may come to regret this kind of behaviour.
By going so personal on Brown, he will deserve similar treatment himself.
Doesn’t matter how Boris is or not, labour need new ideas and new blood, whether it’s next time or the time after. Livingstone is now consigned to talking head status if he doesn’t want to get back as an MP, someone else will stand for mayor for labour next time.
112 I’m sure he is worried that Cruddas gives him a hiding at PMQs in 2011
‘Scottish unemployment at new low’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7509522.stm
110- easterross- cannot win. The implementation of the Soham enquiry burdened police forces with mountains of red tape. The kind of tape the Tories are saying they want to get rid of.
Ya boo you’re useless, Brown. You’re the most useless person in the whole playground!
Yup that was really impressive.
113- why new blood? French and Italian politicians go on forever, and ever. What happened to wise old heads?
This fad for youth in politics will not last.
….the most useless person in the history of the world, no the solar system, no the universe.
112. Tyson, I thought so too. I hope there is a strategic decision behind the attack but maybe not….perhaps just trying to wind Brown up?
120 - Cameron lays off when Brown is in deep trouble and lays into him when he thinks he’s safe. This tends to suggest that, as far as CCHQ are concerned and if PMQs was anything to go by, they feel that Brown’s weathered this particular storm.
120- jimbo- I think Osborne has a big play in the narrative of PMQ’s, and sometimes you get the feeling that they test how high they can push the bar.
120- Its the start of the school (I mean political) holidays. Always fun to leave with a bang!
Regarding inflation, when it goes over 5% by the end of the year, what tactic will the BBC use to cover how high it is compared to 1997? Maybe something like “Inflation highest since Major government”?
Ken is tainted goods now, there is no way back into City Hall for him. Labour wouldnt want him either.
PMQs: I actually thought Brown was better today. He was his silly not-answering-the-question self, but at least he didnt say “b-b-but the real question is why dont the Tories support X” And I think some of the jibes hit home with Cameron on ducking the big issues.
Daily Politics: Now that Blears is off the airwaves more and Patricia Hewitt is retired, there is a new queen of the cringeworthy from New Lab: Dawn Butler. Utterly dreadful on The
Daily Politics today. Didnt answer a single question, didnt say anything of any sense, and the ineptitude of it all clearly got to IDS who was visibly annoyed by the innane chatter and empty rhetoric coming form Butler.
OT on banking - it really is a disgrace that the banks, having profiteered off of ramping up a debt bubble and then evading the payback, are now raking in £8 BILLION in bank charges alone from the poor British customer. Time for the Government to get serious about reining in these shysters…
116 Tyson, it had nothing to do with red tape if the BBC report was correct and entirely to do with the fact that they have made no attempt to bring together 9 different registration bodies for sex offenders or something like that. Home Office gave a feeble excuse about work in progress. Sounded to me just like total incompetence. I have no doubt if it had been the daughters of 2 Government ministers who had been so cuelly murdered, the whole Home Office would have been made to get off its arse to get the thing done.
Jacqui Smith is just a lightweight out of her depth. Charles Clark, David Blunkett and John Reid all look like masters of efficiency compared to her.
122. how high they can push the bar? with personal insults and name calling?
108 No disrespect Easterross, but most of the 59 million Brits who live outside Glasgow can’t give a stuff about the result of the pending by-election there.
126- exactly. It is a good strategy in one sense because it builds into the aura of weakness, but Cameron must be prepared to take this kind of abuse at some point.
Rawnsley “Labour will win the Glasgow East by-election with a reduced majority. That’s the verdict of the PHI100, Britain’s most authoritative survey of expert and inside political opinion.
The panel was surveyed on Friday, before the publication of an opinion poll suggesting that Labour would hold the Glasgow seat.”
http://tinyurl.com/54wdxs
They publish it 5 days after they surveyed the people?
Funny if the “most authoritative survey of expert and inside political opinion” get it wrong.
126
I thought useless was absolutely apt. Wasnt Gordo telling us to USE LESS of everything
112. Brown is useless, though. You know it. I know it. Everyone knows it. So if your David Cameron, why not say it!
He’s been easing up on Brown in recent weeks, but today proved he can absolutely wipe the floor with him at will, and anytime he ease’s up and lets Brown claw himself to a draw, he’s doing because it suits his (Camerons) desire.
125- Is it going to far to suggest that maybe Jacqui Smith got the job because…..shes a woman, and Brown thought it would help with with female votes? The fact that she is useless of course doesnt help matters!
Not so -If they lose Glasgow East then Gordon will go. I think there are enough hardened old soldiers (including Nick Palmer) in the party to do the necessary.
127 - apart from the ones that will read in their paper the next day that Labour took the kicking of a generation …
112. Why is ‘useless’ worse than ’shallow’?
129- 38% of the panel think the SNP will win. A majority did on the 30th June.
Sounds to me like too close to call.
BTW 1% of the expert panel thinks that Labour will increase their majority, and 10% think they will maintain a similar lead. That is 11% of the experts who are not worth considering.
118. And France and Italy are two of the worse run countries this side of the ex-Soviet bloc - it’s all patronage and corruption. No, a healthy turnover of politicians is a good thing.
I see britain has come at the bottom of another European Quality of Life survey? But should we be surprised? We’re told that average incomes keep rising, yet we all know that most people earn well below the ‘average’. Our ‘average’ is supposedly higher than the French and Germans, yet they work fewer hours than we do. I would like someone to tell me what the median wage per hour worked is in France and what it is in Britain. I wouldn’t be surprised if it is quite a bit lower here. Apparently they have higher unemployment than we do. I would say that they are more honest than we are about the unemployment level.
There is the cost of living aswell. They pay less for their fuel, petrol and housing than we do. We deluded ourselves for a decade that we were getting better off, when all we were doing was living off easy debt with a refusal to save for old age. At least now someone might be minded to do something about this mess.
136, dont forget tyson these are all “experts” and are presumably not the commentariat that we frequently take the p out of.
Anybody know if this list has been published yet;
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/07/who-are-the-sec.html
and who didn’t comply with David Camerons orders?
121. ukpaul - “Cameron lays off when Brown is in deep trouble and lays into him when he thinks he’s safe.”
Yeah. I was thinking the same thing. If Cameron is attacking Brown now then he clearly thinks that Brown is safe for the time being.
The last thing the Tories want right now is for Brown to go. He is their biggest asset.
@140:
I bet the Wintertons will be in that list. Mysteriously.
132. I remember reading somewhere that Brown has a very different attitude to Home Affairs to Blair. He thinks it’s best to not talk about crime, immigration rather than draw attention to it. He probably wanted someone who wouldn’t bring a great deal of attention to the department and Jacqui Smith seemed boring enough.
127. “No disrespect Easterross, but most of the 59 million Brits who live outside Glasgow can’t give a stuff about the result of the pending by-election there”
I think Easterross is one of those 59 million Brits, isn’t he? Gordon Brown is another, and just in case anyone’s been fooled he’s actually only pretending not to care.
By the way, call me paranoid, but the last time someone said “no disrespect” to me I got the distinct impression she didn’t respect me!
Ken Clarke slicing up Yvette Idiot in the House about oil prices
145. Good to see him on form, but it only underlines how ordinary the current Tory front bench are.
Results of this year’s national tests [SATS] were late this year after a failure by American contractor ETS Europe to have them ready for publication on time.
At a Children, Schools and Families Select Committee hearing Douglas Carswell, Conservative member for Harwich and Clacton, told Mr Balls there had “clearly been a cock-up” and asked if he “would take responsibility for that”?
Mr Balls replied: “Ministers are accountable to Parliament for the overall delivery of schools policy, including the national testing regime. It is my responsibility to make sure that happens and we do that in an arms-length way.”
He added that ETS had a responsibility to deliver the contract and the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority had a responsibility to make sure the contract was delivered. ”
Why have ministers then?
138. it is no surprise that we are bottom of a “european” quality of life survey, just as certain europeans would be bottom of any “western world” QOL survey run by americans.
most of the euros have a different attitude to “quality of life” to us, and quality of life is highly subjective.
I can’t wait for Ken to be back and, mark my words, he will be!
148. But you would accept that people in France, Germany and Benelux are better off than us?
150. no. possibly from their point of view, certainly not from mine.
150. It all depends on which part of each society, doesn’t it? I’m sure all those bankers and eurocrats in Luxembourg have excellent standards of living, while those in Paris’ Algerian ghettos would be far worse than us.
151. But they appear to have lower living costs and possibly higher median wages per hour worked?
153 - And much more powerful unions, and bigger government subsidies, and higher taxes. And shorter working hours.
154. Do you think that is good or bad?
Having just bet on the SNP to win I have a vested interest. We are just at the start of this economic crash: its going to get far worse. In the next few weeks as Merrill Lynch rightly point out today the US economy is in danger of a 1929 style depression. The implications for the rest of the world particularly the UK are catastrophic as this will spread like wildfire. Historically August has been a month when events spiral out of control (1939, 1991 etc…) and should the US election either be disputed or lead to a narrow McCain victory we can expect a catastrophic downturn. The UK doesn’t make anything, is mired in debt, and the policies of the last twenty years are unravelling. The current UK parties will be completely unable to handle the sequence of events soon to come. As to Brown Adam Boulton is being generous: Broon is like Zombies Dawn of the Dead and sooner or later the PLP will find its Professor Van Helsing.
148 I don’t know how much use such a survey is. I can think of things that are very much better here than in France, and vice versa.
There is always somebody worse off than you are:
“Zimbabwe’s official inflation rate has escalated to 2.2m%, driving the cost of a loaf of bread to about one-third of a teacher’s monthly salary.
However, independent economists were quick to dismiss the government’s figure, saying the true rate was actually several times higher and rising faster than ever.
The central bank governor, Gideon Gono, yesterday announced a 13-fold increase since the last time the inflation rate was released, in February, when it was put at about 165,000%. Officials admitted the figure was only an estimate because it was now all but impossible to track the cost of individual goods.
One of Zimbabwe’s most respected economists, John Robertson, said that while inflation was probably about 2m% in May, it soared again last month.
“I think the June figure is more likely to be 10m% and it could turn out 15m%,” he said.”
155. Bit of both, to be honest. But it makes it hard to calculate whether their quality of life is better or worse than ours - depends what you value most. French food is, in general, so much better than ours that I’m tempted to say that that outweighs many other quality of life factors. But I don’t blame our government (or credit theirs) for that - it’s a much deeper cultural thing.
152. I suspect we have higher “social mobility” in terms of chances of making it into this elite you speak of, as we have the banking centre of europe and all that goes with it. I also suspect we have among the worst ghettoes. In other words, we are more americanised than they are.
153. I don’t think that absolute comparison is meaningful. The useful comparison is, how many hours does your average man in the street work, and what luxury items can he then afford on top of basic living costs (and what is that living standard). My gut feeling is that we work harder and have more luxuries, although the standard of living is different because we are more cramped than, say, the French, so our average dwelling is probably smaller (flip side, better amenities) etc. etc. etc.
In summary, if you like a “French” lifestyle, you’ll enjoy it more over there. But diehard Londoners would probably find even Paris to be a feeble imitation.
154. France is far more socialist and has more tradition of protests/strikes etc., which some people find to be more liberated, individual, etc. whereas we have an entirely different culture which I would hesitate to call better or worse.
150 No, not necessarily.
152 For an immigrant, starting up your own business here is certainly much easier here than