How ONE ex-Lib Dem became SIX for the SNP
July 16th, 2008
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Is this why you have to be careful about extrapolation?
One of the main innovations in modern polling is the mechanism to ensure a politically balanced sample by asking how people voted last time and then attaching a weighting.
Sometimes this can produce very strange results and there have been none stranger than what happened for former Lib Dem voters in the ICM Glasgow East poll at the weekend. Here, for some reason, the pollster only found six people who said they voted Lib Dem at the 2005 general election. This was far below what actually happened and ICM made its standard adjustment.
So those six 2005 LDs were weighted up to 31 - a staggering increase but in line with the procedure. Then in the course of the calculation on certainty to vote that got reduced to 24 or an unweighted figure of just four.
The result can be seen in the detail above. Those four split three to the Lib Dems to one to the SNP and as a result of the multiplier the latter resulted in six going onto the SNP total - a sizeable chunk in a survey with a sample size of just over 500.
Although this example is extreme it does not undermine my faith in the core principle - that past vote weighting produces more accurate polls because the sample is not based on demographic factors alone.
Mike Smithson
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Thread change nightmare again…
Mark Senior (and anyone else thinking people are “talking us into recession”) have a read of this
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aywsH.3Yxklg&refer=home
and then tell me we’re not heading for recession.
It’s absurd to say that any amount of “talk” or spin positive or negative can change the fundamentals, which are DIRE for UKplc. I am glad your company is doing fine, but really unemployment figures not the whole story, especially since unemployment is about the most ‘laggy’ of indicators. This article’s only glimmer of light is that unemployment may not be as bad as in past recessions because unemployed immigrants will simply go home rather than sign on, and unemployed Brits will take some of the hitherto unattractive jobs done by them out of necessity.
On topic, interesting analysis, leaves it all up in the air somewhat, and just reinforces my belief that betting is a mug’s game
Or not game for a chicken like me that’s for sure. Will there be any more polls? we had 2 or 3 in C&N didn’t we?
1. Tell us what we don’t know.
Watch the price of oil, as per my post at end of last thread. Could be a good bellweather.
I expect those guys could tell us how many angels could dance on the head of a pin.
4. Today? None. They are members of Unite so were on strike.
1 There are alternative views to which I subscribe that the downturn will stop short of a recession . The severity of a downturn and whether it becomes a recession is within the compass og governments both US and UK to influence . A Conservative government has in the past and will in the future always take measures that increase the depth and severity of a downturn . It will be interesting as to how the Labour government and incoming Obama governments react .
2. Betting is a mug’s game when mug’s play it! But, as we have seen time and time again where political betting is concerned, sensible analysis can result in profitable trading. Recent examples, well recorded on this web-site, include the London Mayoral election, the Crewe and Nantwich by-election and trading on Conservative seats on the spread markets. By interpreting the analysis in these columns it was possible to make substantial profits, especially on Boris!
Mike, good article. Being pedantic one too many “based” in the last line?
How many times have the opposition predicted recession since 1997? I would guess that every Tory Shadow Chancellor has predicted one - and that’s quite a few!
That said… they may have a point this time, but two quarters of negative growth still looks a bit unlikely to me.
6: I suspect history books will tell us that in July 2008 UK was already in recession. But anyway time will tell.
Meanwhile the debt has to be paid somehow.
6. Has the Labour party ever in history got the UK *out* of a recession?
2 & 7 The problem is usually when people’s expectation is that they should always win a lot more bets than they lose.
Whilst political betting does seem to enmcourage a higher strike rate (an unbroken run of profit in the US primary season for example), punters like myself who bet on a wide range of events are often striking less than half the time we bet in sport for example. This is something many people can’t hack at all when it comes to betting. It isnt betting thats the problem, its losing sometimes that people can’t get their head around.
Technical recession is essentially irrelavant other than a stat for experts to hang on.
What would be worse, short technical recession of 0.5% for two quarters followed by steadily rising growth of 2-3% a year for 3 years or no technical recession but 0.5% growth for 3 years?
1/3 its total economic wipeout!
6 its the biggest recession since the war! My carefully selected stock portfolio is now down 13% in 7 weeks!!!!
[Er that’s £65]
Only Con can save the world!
6.”A Conservative government has in the past and will in the future always take measures that increase the depth and severity of a downturn . It will be interesting as to how the Labour government and incoming Obama governments react.”
This Labour government had plenty of time to react/prepare for any downturn or recession, they could have even managed the UK economy and its finances in such a way as to leave us in a position of having less debt and something put by for a rainy day. Both might have allowed for some much needed cuts in general taxation and fuel duty which were affordable without leaving a financial black hole.
Considering the precarious state of the UK finances and the sheer level of debt we are facing, your comment about the Conservatives making things worse is laughable. We could have put the breaks on the spiral of debt and had a much softer landing in a downturn back before the last GE. That was when this government should have taken action to steady and improve our financial position - they didn’t and we will pay dearly for that.
Step forward one Gordon Brown, he spent the last couple of years as Chancellor taking selfish short terms decisions to steer the economy towards his coranation when he should have been trying to protect it in the longer term for all of us. Might have helped his premiership and his party if he had done.
13
Quite, its all about perceptions anyway, not about labels. To the man in the street food is more expensive, fuel is more expensive, wages are not keeping up. News stories about upcoming ‘recession’ just feed into this whatever the reality. Add in to that the perception that Labour are inept (rather closer to reality than some of the economic commentary seems to be at the moment anyway) and like to tax families when they can get away with it whilst losing data and lying about elections and you have the simple recipe that makes up the current political landscape.
Nothing in even the hopelessly optimistic Badger official view of the next 2 years indicates there will be any economic ‘feel good’ factor, and the vast majority of people outside Labour’s ever-shrinking core are sick to the back teeth of Brown and co. Hard to see the electorate falling back in love with Labour ergo Tory Landslide - now, in 2 years, doesn’t matter - no-one can seriously be left thinking ‘we simply HAVE to keep Gordon and the Groovy gang in government, they are legendary’
11- http://tutor2u.net/economics/content/topics/macroeconomy/recession.htm
Look as if Labour “got us out of recession” in 1975.
I ask as I do not know. What will the Tories do with child tax credit?
18 blow the lot on tax breaks for the super-rich and union smashing - and a 100 foot statue of Lady Thatcher to be erected in Glasgow East
6. George Soros is of course a NeoCon and a member of the Conservative Party
Not.
The UK economy has been driven by money extracted from housing for a number of years. This money has now stopped. Hence the retail crash. The financial industry has frozen. The building sector is beginning to implode.
There is no prospect of things returning to the recent past. The banks don’t have the money to lend, or would be allowed to do so by the regulators or the shareholders.
The next stage of this is when the shortage of expenditure and credit begins to hit beyond the retail economy.
18 hopefully get rid of it and stop encouraging all these illegitimate children!!!
20.Have the fiscal rules and safe guards on the financial industry been relaxed to much in the last 10 years?
All this doom and gloom.
Mike- very good lead.
18
Seriously, I don’t think there is an official policy on this as yet
I tend to agree with the bad recession line some people have taken.
There are a number of reasons for this:
Collapse of transactions in the housing market and knock on for new mortgages, which leads to declining house prices and less equity release to fund lifestyles (A big factor in recent economic growth). The multiplier from this alone subtantally slows the economy. Add this to rocketing fuel prices for homes and transport and you have a reduction in affective purchasing power for the average consumer on a fixed income! What goes first is eating out, drinking out and purchases that go toward using up disposable income. The share of the cake that is disposable income is being raped by Inflation and Government taxes.
A recession is very likely indeed. A slump will happen if interest rates go up further. Look it another way Labour go on about 15% mortgage rates under the Tories - whilst in nominal terms i think 15% unlikely, given the RPI measure of inflation has rocketed - A increase interest rates is 50/50 IMO.
“A Conservative government has in the past and will in the future always take measures that increase the depth and severity of a downturn .”
You’re wrong.
17. I think that 1974-75 was a rare beast in that it was a double dip recession.
Back on topic. Posted this old comment from ConHom before on PB.com, but in light of Mike’s article thought I would post it again.
“Well,at least I agree with you about the LibDems.
They have held Argyll (until the last Scottish election) on the most incredible coalition of votes.
We found Labour supporters voting LibDem to keep the Tories out and Tories voting LibDem to keep Labour out and Tories and Labour supporters voting LibDem to keep the SNP out and none of them actually voting LibDem to put the LibDems in.
I did a stint of phone canvassing an election or two ago and had phoned over 500 numbers before I got a voter who professed to be LibDem supporter and THEY WON THE SEAT.
Now that the SNP has snatched the seat back I suspect it will revert to being again an SNP/Tory marginal (if the Tories get their act together, that is).
Posted by: David McEwan Hill | January 23, 2008 at 21:21
The Scots have really got a taste for tactical voting over the last few years and I don’t expect that to change in the Glasgow East by election.
re 7 & 12. But you always get losers and I think it’s vital to manage your gambling closely so you know how much you are making or losing and that you recognise your mistakes. I lost few hundred last week on who would come second and third in H&H. My reading was that crime victim campaigner, Jill Saward, would do better than she did.
For Glasgow East I have yet to make up my mind and my current assessment of the percentages is Labour 60% SNP 40%. This is unlike Boris and Labour’s lost deposit in Henley when I was 100% certain that my view was correct. Any bet at any price was therefore a value bet.
I think there is some evidence on voting ‘recall’ questions that people tend to ‘remember’ voting for the winner even if they didn’t do so. In this case, a suspiciously large number of people report voting SNP last time. Perhaps this is because in their own mind they have decided to vote SNP this time, and they don’t want to admit (to themselves?) that they have changed their minds. So perhaps reducing the weighting on the ‘past’ SNP voters in this poll is being overdone, and therefore the published poll results overstate the true Labour lead?
Or is this just too convoluted!?
26- sean- maybe not. They (Tories) panic- they cut public spending at the time of a declining stimulus in the market, and put their faith in a declining private sector.
We maybe would have had a recession in 1999 with the tech blow out, and 2001 post 9/11 with the Tories in power deploying this strategy.
You need to have confidence in both the public and private sectors to keep us out of a recession- when one goes you rely on the other. In 1980, and 1990 the Tories backed the wrong horse and made the recession alot, alot worse.
The reality is that in this period Labour will borrow its way out of trouble which is what is required.
Mike, but are the voters in fact recalling their 2005 vote or their 2007 vote?
I was (pleasantly) surprised the Lib Dems polled 9%, but that is the weighted figure, where the unweighted figure is 4%. In 2007 the Lib Dem vote was 6-8% in this area, not the 11% of 2005.
26. 1980 - 81 was definetly deepend due to the Conservative approach to monetary policy. Having said that the Labour alternative would have been worse, so yes in 80-81 the tories made a bad situation worse but in the long -run it did the country alot of good due to a shift away from Union-based employment and indeed Union based government.
Mark Senior always seems most at home in the past - I suspect when he is not printing two horse race leaflets, he watches a DVD collection of the Carry - On films!
I can just see Mark at home in the 1970’s driving round in an austin princess trying to get the birds attention with the windows open and playing Donna osmonds latests number. He may even have had a bag marked sweets……….
So after Hillary Clinton got Obama to ask his supporters to pay for her $20m debt (acquired by continuing on the primary when it was clear to all she had lost), she’s now asking her own supporters to transfer their donations to 2012! And is vague about whether she means her Senate or Presidential campaign!
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/16/hillary/
29- Mike- for the first time in a long while I think we are backing different horses next Thursday. One of us here is going to be a bit worse off.
As an foreigner, can someone tell me why the political parties have “Scottish” before the name?
Surely the Scotchish people know where they are. They cant hate the English THAT much?
33
Martin, Have you been on the p*ss today, its a bit harsh>>>
196,200 Previous Thread - Tyson - It’s not paronoia about the BBC, it’s serious criticism about their rank bad news reporting. Pretending that shelving the scheduled 2p increase in fuel duty would leave a big whole in the Treaury’s receipts which would have to be made up from elsewhere was just ridiculous.
The amount of duty involved has already been recovered several times over firstly by unbudgeted tax on crude oil production from the North Sea and secondly by additional, equally unbudgeted VAT receipts from the huge increases in petrol and diesel prices.
This was presented on the BBC News this evening as if the audience was a group of 10 year olds who could be readily hoodwinked.
6. It will be another 6 months before Obama becomes President, if indeed he ever does. The course of any downturn / recession will have been set by then and I doubt whether he or someone else will be able to change that for the better. Of course, anyone could then make it worse.
I suspect that is a lot of mythology in the belief we can talk ourself into a recession.
39 McCain will be in soon! He will be saving the world along with Camo!!
38-peter- I do get slightly annoyed at the BEEB bashing, but accept that you have a point.
BTW- thought your response to Easterross about London was very funny earlier.
And an open question- not just to Peter, but to all here. If (big if) the UK avoids a recession what credit would you give to Gordon?
Could this perfect economic storm be Gordon’s Falklands? Just a thought.
Zara @ 36
The Liberal Democrats are a federal party and therefore the Scottish Liberal Democrats (and the Welsh Liberal Democrats) are distinct entities.
I don’t believe this is the case with the other parties, and I suspect it’s a case of avoiding any suggestion of being “an English party, serving English interests”.
41.And an open question- not just to Peter, but to all here. If (big if) the UK avoids a recession what credit would you give to Gordon?
None, because its not going to happen. Brown and this government used up that “get out of jail” card by stealth in the run up to the 2005 GE.
31: “The reality is that in this period Labour will borrow its way out of trouble which is what is required.”
???
Borrowing has got us INTO trouble. Labour were borrowing when they should have been paying off debt. We collectively have all borrowed way too much. If our fiscal deficit gets much worse the pound will weaken even more (I have seen it referred to as the British ounce nowadays, not pound) and that coupled with our gargantuan balance of trade deficit will mean that we import a even more inflation since good denominated in Euros, Roubles, RMB, Yen you name it will cost more in sterling terms, and there is a long list of stuff we HAVE to import, notably energy and most manufactured goods, including essentials.
We will all be talking about this a lot more I think in coming months. It is not just some esoteric technical hitch in banking, it’s the whole underpinnings of our economy being eroded. Get googling, there’s a lot of level-headed, clear explanations out there which demonstrate that we are basically headed for a BIG crash.
41 ‘If (big if) the UK avoids a recession’ - Tyson ever the comedian!!!
It will be worse than the great depression of 1929!!!!
In 1931 the UK knew it needed Con to save us so thats why Con won with 500maj!!!
Bit like 2010!!!!!!!
41 Tyson -
Well you’d have to admit that Easterross was leading with his chin a little with that one!
As regards the credit due to Gordon Brown should the UK avoid a recession. I have to be very fair on this one and I would say about 60%, i.e. precisely the same level of blame I would lay at his door should a recession in fact ensue.
17, SBS, Nice link.
So the worst one in a century occurred under David Lloyd-George (1920-21, drop of 8% in real GDP), with the second-worst one hitting under the second-ever Labour Government (1929-1932, drop of 6% in real GDP).
On a more analytical note, it’s evident that 3 out of 5 (60%) of the recessions of the 20th century did indeed occur under the Tories. However, for 60% of the century, the Tories had either the Prime Minister, or were by far the dominant members of the National Government (poor old Ramsay MacDonald from 1931 to 35 probably wouldn’t be claimed by Labour in any case).
This implies that there is no correlation between probability of recession and flavour of Government in the 20th century.
As I’ve said many times before (probably still having undertaken more constituency polls than anyone else, from back in my Harris days), this is an extremely difficult exercise, and picking the bones of one poll doesn’t do more than illustrate this.
While it is true that any sampling error is less likely to affect the SNP share, because it is less correlated with class and other variables than most other parties, we do really need much more information (i.e. more polls, for a start) before we can place much weight on the ICM findings.
One thing we cannot say is that “Labour are 14% ahead in Glasgow East”. For what it’s worth, I think the SNP will probably do better than that, so if the betting market is reflecting one poll they may be worth a punt.
And finally, as I always say as an ex-pollster (and did at the time) this idea of a margin of error is nonsense. The MoE quoted is always only on the basis of the sample size, it only really would apply in a true random survey (which are not and cannot be done, humans aren’t jelly beans in a barrel). There are many other sources of variation and ‘error’ - like talking to the ‘wrong people’, that is, not in proportion to those who will vote.
Oh, and by the way, hello and welcome to Steve Webb MP. Is this your first delurking here?
The past and will We really have to come back to home soon and stay for the past and will. It is home and measures was worthwhile.
46. Peter. It will obviously be better for Brown and Labour if the recession is less sharp and deep than appears likely. But I think this will only lessen the blame attached, because I think the electorate are only now really starting to respond to the economic downturn in their polling intentions; changes that will be sustained for a few years.
The only plus I can see for Brown is that as the economy becoming the lead political story, it means that he personally is less the story than he has been.
Every cloud has a darker cloud that can overshadow it.
The one thing you can be certain of, if you refer to the past, Martin Day, will say you live in it!
Didn’t Gordon predict the Public Finance would be in surplus this year 2 or 3 years ago in his budget?
48
Can you please extrapolate on MoE , i always thought sample 500 was plus or minus 5% and 1000 was plus or minus 3%. Are you saying its a get out of jail free card for pollsters?
50 stjohn - “Every cloud has a darker cloud that can overshadow it.”
By God, you sound bloody miserable this evening!
I’m sorry to see Anthony Steen on this list.
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:70a98ac2-7144-41dd-a696-523aa179dec4
As Totnes is the bestest town in all the world, apart from the hippies that clutter the place up, and the Seven Stars Hotel, the worse hotel I’ve ever stayed in.
50: Chancellor since ‘97 and now PM - do you really think he can escape the blame? His risible claims to have ended boom and bust, and his first budget speech where he explicitly said he would not let house prices out of control, place him firmly in the firing line.
“Volatility is damaging both to the housing market and to the economy as a whole. So stability will be central to our policy to help homeowners. And we must be prepared to take the action necessary to secure it. I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery.”
(Brown’s Budget speech 1997)
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/cgi/news/release?id=54997
I don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
Yes Welcome to Steve Webb. According to Theyworkforyou.com You are a rebel!
46- peter- he may well have been (leading with the chin), but it was a great left jab you caught him with!
I have an inkling that the combination of a fiscal public spending stimulus, public sector incomes policy, soft landing with unemployment as immigrants leave, interest rate stability now and future cuts- we may well come out the end of this horrible squall quite unscathed, suffering only a timely 15-20% house price correction.
If we do, and this is a big IF, would Gordon deserve another term?
The BBC news appears to have turned into Panorama this evening.
53, yes, basically, except it doesn’t get them out of jail if they’re further ‘out’. The actual get out of jail card is that no polls are predictions except for exit polls, so a late swing can be blamed.
The MoE is purely calculated on sample size, isn’t it? There are lots more sources of why poll results might be ‘inaccurate’.
To take an extreme illustration, what do you think an actual margin of error would be if you asked 1000 Welsh hill farmers how they would vote in a Belgian election?!
Somebody will probably say that MoE is just a technical term referring to sample size (though I still don’t think it applies if the survey is not random, which none of them is), but it’s quoted as if that’s how far ‘out’ the results might be (95% of the time).
Remember all those polls in the old days which consistently overstated Labour, they all had the MoE warning (except I never quoted it in ours if I could avoid it). That should give the lie to the idea that it’s a scientifically justifiable verification.
56 To be fair, you’d have to compare the UK’s performance over this period with that of other leading economies. Brown has repeatedly told us that the UK is better equipped to deal with any serious downturn than almost any other nation - now let’s see if he’s right. If not, then he’s surely doomed.
54. Woe, Woe and thrice Woe!
But for punters, there are betting opportunities in “gloom and doom”. I know you have done well, selling the housing price index.
Well, the terminal state of the present Labour government’s electoral prospects has to have betting potential too. What surprises me is that, despite the recent sharp downturn in the economy and therefore the government’s electoral prospects, the spreadbetting market for buying Tory/selling Labour seats is yet to react. I have bet accordingly.
60 thank you very interesting. How do you view polls now? are they more scientific?
58. Tyson. I don’t think your sunny view of the UK’s economic prospects is accurate. But I hope you are right.
Will Gordon gain an election victory should you prove to be correct?
No. The Tories would gain a smaller majority than currently looks likely.
For those supporters who would like to see Labour win a fourth term, Mr Simon Heffer in this morning’s Daily Telegraph believes you may yet get your wish:
Some of you get cross with me for being negative about Mr Cameron, but this is an object lesson in why he isn’t up to it. All around us is the monument to Labour’s profligacy, its penal taxation and its addiction to welfarism.
Mr Cameron holds out hope of a fourth New Labour term, only with himself as Prime Minister, continuing Labour’s gluttonous public spending, coddling failed businesses and maintaining a massive state apparatus.
Isn’t Glasgow East proof enough of just how utterly poisonous that sort of thing is? Or does he seriously want us to have a lot more?
61- I agree. If Brown stays, then the party must cross their fingers and pray otherwise they will lose 150-200 seats.
65: Heffer belongs in a museum.
58
Tyson house price 15 - 20% prediction is a fantasy hoot.
Here is the reality:
Sold yesterday.
Result £55,000
Rothwell 6 Jubilee Street, Kettering, Northamptonshire NN14 6BJ
A Freehold Mid Terrace House
BY ORDER OF mortgagees
Previous history
24/06/2005 £80,000 Semi F No Map 6, Jubilee Street, Rothwell, Kettering, Northamptonshire, NN14 6BJ
09/01/2006 £110,000 Semi F No Map 6, Jubilee Street, Rothwell, Kettering, Northamptonshire, NN14 6BJ
59
Are you refering to the mass of illegal immigrants they found in Southall and the open sale of forged documents?
The Home Office is apparently not interested,there’s a surprise.
64-stjohn- I do like this site as it meanders into civility during the evenings. Memories of my youthful days listening to the Velvet Underground, smoking very weak resin, drinking coffee, and putting the world to rights with likeminded others.
I think you are right. The tide has turned for Gordo. Saving the recession will help him limit the loss. He has done too many mistakes, and people are sick and fed up with the same government.
The spread on Labour GE Seats on Spreadfair has fallen by 6 seats over the past 24 hours and is currently 232-235. Has Mike been at play?
68- those folk who bought the said house for 110k must feel like chumps.
70 Tyson, I agree, PB is usually a friendlier place in the evenings, after around 10pm, perhaps it’s the wine talking.
OT - Has anybody any picks who they think is going to win the
Open? The odds are wide open and I’m struggling to pick a winner.
72
I’m not sure about that. Look at the figures again:
24/06/2005 £80,000
09/01/2006 £110,000
An increase of 30k in six months is about 40%. I know nothing about the history other than what’s on the net but it is very fishy.
I would not be surprised if someone is sitting on a beach laughing at the stupidity of the bank.
Worth reading
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=408181&in_page_id=2
71. Just the market shifting to reflect reality.
re 71. No - I’ve not had a Labour seats trade here for a few weeks. I still have a Labour sell position but was buying the Tories before the price moved sharply up today - was that StJohn?
69 I am not surprised the Home Office are not interested. Maybe the Home Office will be a little more interested the next time they need some cleaners, they can go down and get some of these illegals to work for them, just like last time.
My point was that this is hardly news really, certaintly not worthy of the first 10 minutes of the news. Everyone knows its happening.
Mark Senior is a ridiculous, embarrassing old t0sser, with the looks of a scrotum and the brains of a daffodil - no offence Mark! - and I humbly suggest that Mike bans him on the basis of sheer, repetitive absurdity.
79 LOL!!!!!!!!
73- peter- I think we have pbCOM daily cycles- the grumpies in the day, unhappy with life, their jobs, and using pbCOM to vent frustrations- then traffic drops as people munch their teas (or dinners for you southerners),
and then it mellows. Red wine helps- enjoyed an excellent pinot noir tonight.
I have a horrible day tomorrow at work mind. But tomorrow is another day, and I have newsnight to watch, a night of listening to world service, a lovely walk on the meadows with my dog, and a great breakfast to enjoy before I have to face work tomorrow!.
74 toontoon - As I suggested here recently, the enormous Open Championship field is to be avoided, even if there are probably only a maximum of around 30 capable of winning.
But spot a British winner and you’ve also spotted the Spoty 2008 winner.
74- one of the Australians will win this year.
Just to revert to the previous thread for a moment. Is losing to Boris the first time Ken Livingston has ever actually *lost* an election? Maybe he can’t quite understand this and has the vague feeling that he’s been pushed out of something that was rightfully his, like when the GLC was abolished. It would explain his constantly hanging round City Hall, waiting for the mistake to be rectified.
82. PfP: But spot a British winner and you’ve also spotted the Spoty 2008 winner.
I wouldn’t be so sure about that, it being Olympic year.
70. Tyson. I don’t think the site always meanders into civility during the evenings!
My one serious claim to having invented a decent neologism, is when I described the time here on PB.com after 9pm as the “lagershed”.
I understand that a certain Cornish sex memoirist and occasional visitor to this site also claims to have invented a neologism.
82. PfP: But spot a British winner and you’ve also spotted the Spoty 2008 winner.
And don’t forget Hamilton in the F1.
82- agree again. Woods presents a great compass to bet for/ against. Without Woods the Open is a turkey shoot,and pure luck.
I just think it is the time for an Auzzie to win this time, or a south American- Romero (younger).
If you have the cash and the bottle lay every UK player- none of them will win!
81 Tyson - don’t forget to pack a little sleep in there also!
BTW - I thought you were a southerner, or a near southerner anyway?
BTW cont’d - we don’t have dinner in Putney, we have supper!
81. The World Service, proper news, less phone ins.
Don’t you listen to Radio Habana?….Voice of Russia? Old recordings of Radio Moscow?
87 Michael - Lewis would have to win F1, which is unlikely, his 2nd place last season didn’t prove enough to win SPOTY, although he was the odds-on pre-programme favourite. What a night that turned out to be, from a betting perspective.
stjohn- I find the evening alcohol fuelled discussions here much more interesting than the daytime malcontents who simply pop up to vent their hatred of all things Labour.
Lagershed- great. Although I always assume that our Cornish comrade is lagershedded no matter what time he posts. A compliment to his 24 hr constitution.
79 That may be true but then I don’t have to go to Thailand to have sex with pubescent Thai girls - purely in the interests of research for your latest book - I know .
93 Thats a bit uncalled for.
85 LS - you’re right of course, but it would have to be from a broadly popular sport so you can forget about canoeists, shooters, archers, yachtsmen, etc. A field athlete or a boxer would be a possibility. But generally golf champions fare well on SPOTY.
93 - Err, Sean gave an over the top opinion, but that’s just libellous. In fact, it’s worse than that it’s sick. Any chance you could withdraw the remark before you get eviscerated?
95 maybe it will be dwain chambers………
90- Yokel- before discovering world service to deal with night time sleeplessness, I used to find reciting the Internationale helped me drift off in previous years. I look forward so much to going to sleep with world service plugged in. You also have fantastic dreams.
89- Peter- I live in Oxford, but was born and bred in Lancashire. Of course supper! How did I forget that?
Good night all.
Keep an eye on Nicola Sanders if she can make it fit to Beijing.
Its a big if but shes good enough to win gold.
Last three Open winners who have been British Paul Lawrie 1999, Faldo 1992 and Faldo 1990 all failed to make even the top three of BBC spoty in their respective years. Maybe its a golf thing?
63, yes, polls have greatly improved their methods and general accuracy since my day (I was part of the 1992 ‘Waterloo’, though actually Harris came out of it very marginally better than average). I still think the ‘margin of error’ figures are potentialy misleading even now, though!
On the Open golf, one of the reasons I love following as much of the four majors as I can is that they are truly open, with literally dozens of potential winners - even when Tiger is there, he only wins about one in three or four … who would have predicted Ben Curtis, or Paul Lawrie, even before the last round? I was looking at the spread odds today, and realised I had no idea whatsoever who will win or place! How exciting to watch all this slowly unfold over four full days. It’s like Test cricket, a prolongation of satisfaction, though Tests have far fewer possible outcomes. I suppose Sting might have called it all tantric.
101 Montgomerie wont win
I think Mike’s post makes the case that all polls now are voodoo polls. They’ve moved so far away from simply taking a snapshot of opinion at any one time and are desparately tinkering with their raw data to reflect the latest group think.
The pollsters will come a major cropper at some point as a result and go back to the basic of simply selecting a representative sample asking them what they think and getting it wrong 1 time out of 20.
82. If you think Paula Radcliffe stands a chance of getting fit in time for the Olympics then she’s got to be a good bet for Spoty.
93. lol.
94, 96. No, let Mark have his say, the palsied, drooling old fool.
95, on Sports Personality of the Year, you can forget about some of the most popular sports too, like that most widely practised, angling; British multi-world champion Bob Nudd regularly has had thousands of votes discounted. They actually have a short list of candidates and discard other preferences. Imagine doing that in a parliamentary election, declaring George Galloway to be a (fish?)face that doesn’t fit, for example!
By the way does anyone else find SPOTY to be about the worst presented and most embarrassing programme of the year - every year?! I think they must now be doing it as self-parody.
104 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA more chance of nick clegg winning than paula radcliffe.
Sean T
You may want to let him have his say, but I dont fancy reading such
invective. We all all take the p1ss from time to time , but there are limits.
101 Robert - I totally agree - it’s a magical slowly unfolding drama, wonderfully presented by the BBC (and you won’t often hear me say that, see upthread).
If this year’s Masters is anything to go by, hopefully we can expect dawn to dusk coverage.
Although I’ve never played the game myself to any extent, it’s my favourite sporting event of the year, closely followed by the Masters.
106 Yes, but isn’t that half the fun, with at least 2 or 3 excruciatingly bad interviews? It even gives The Euro Song Contest a good run for its money.
I have to say I was amazed by last year’s winner, but not half as amazed as when Zara Philips won it.
108. Sure, but - in defence of Mark - he is also technically correct. I do regularly go to Thailand and I do have sex with - literally - dozens and dozens of beautiful girls aged 19-25. By some definitions, gorgeous and pliant young women that age could be classed “pubescent”, I guess.
Indeed, I think, during the writing of The Genesis Secret earlier this year, I knocked off about twenty different girls, in between stints of lying by the pool. That’s in two months.
Is this bad? I dunno. I suspect it means I’m not quite Tory Party A List material, but quite frankly, who gives a f***. Evidently not me. The petit bourgeois left can go screw themselves, if they can get it up.
And of course you have to compare my amoral but royally hedonistic lifestyle to the alternative. Like say, being am embittered old Lib Dem git, alled Mark Senior, still obsessed with the fact his grand-dad’s chip shop went bust because of the Tory Corn Laws.
110, well I must admit to watching both of those, though the Eurovision is partly because the very regional/national identification voting that so ‘disillusioned’ Wogan is what interests me most (and it shows where the heart of Europe really is and isn’t, does it not?!) - and because I follow most sports, though most of these are no longer on BBC. But any form of embarrassment just makes my toes curl painfully.
109, yes I prefer the BBC Open pictures to the Sky coverage reliant largely on US networks, but on the other hand there is the egregious Peter Alliss: who appeared aberrantly on the leaked list of those who refused a CBE, and I don’t think it’s because he’s a red radical who shuns the honours system!
My best round of golf, by at least 19 strokes, was 126.
112 I never knew that about Peter Alliss - I shall now dash off to Wikipedia to read up on him.
Enjoy the golf everyone, goodnight.
Well I have already posted here my one bet on The Open.
Jimenez for a top 5 place at 8/1.
I can’t catch up and read 10,000+ comments for the last 2 weeks but it’s a shame that I narrowly missed out on my Davis percentage bet.
101.”63, yes, polls have greatly improved their methods and general accuracy since my day (I was part of the 1992 ‘Waterloo’, though actually Harris came out of it very marginally better than average). I still think the ‘margin of error’ figures are potentialy misleading even now, though!”
Robert, was it you that told the story about 1992 Harris poll that proved to be quite accurate, IIRC it was out of line with the others during the campaign and you even thought it was a rogue poll? I posted about it a while back and mistakenly thought it was Anthony Wells that had posted the story, but he pointed out that he was only a kid at the time.
111 LOL - You slay me sean
L
O
L
Goodnight all
If ICM were weighting on the basis of the 2005 result alone then that is probably the case Mike.
But I get this feeling they didn’t make clear to respondees that they were not referring to the 2007 result. The previous voting intentions for the SNP look closer to their 2007 result rather than the 2005 result which skews the analysis when they take the final figures down to their 2005 result.
However that is something that only ICM can answer and if they are doing a follow up they may have to ask them how they voted in 2007 to see what that does to the figures.
113, I find it was the OBE … I correct myself, without, I think, weakening my case:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2003/dec/29/golf.comment?commentpage=1
116, yes, we did a poll for the Daily Express, using slightly different methodology (actually mainly because it was a rare one of ours when fieldwork was at a weekend) with the Conservatives ahead, and everyone who didn’t think we were somehow mollifying our clients dismissed it as rogue.
The Harris ITN exit poll actually ended up pretty accurate too on its 10 pm figures, but we/they’d already gone with 9 pm figures and an editorial line which fitted the prevailing belief there would be a hung parliament, so we didn’t get any credit for that either.
This was partly my fault for not really having faith in the poll and in my gut view that all the polls were too Labour … but I did keep the bets I had made well before the campaign on a Tory victory, and made quite a sum personally.
Even the Labour-loving, europhile FT has had enough of this government’s economic ineptitude:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a19f12d4-535f-11dd-8dd2-000077b07658.html
Choice quote: “Perhaps Alistair Darling’s next setpiece financial statement should be written in disappearing ink”
Ouch.
N’night!
119.The problem is that most people(not really into politics generally or particularly aligned to a political party) will have a much fresher memory of how they voted in last years Scottish elections rather than the 2005 GE.
Another problem is the amount of tactical voting that has been going on in both elections. If someone responds to a polling question in Scotland these days, are they telling the pollster who they voted for or where their party allegiance lies? That comment I reposted @28 highlights a very clear pattern I have certainly experienced over the last couple of years with friends and family, old party allegiances are disappearing and are being replaced by a much more cynical and sophisticated approach to tactical voting as seen in that post at that time.
The problem for both Labour and the Libdems in Scotland is that they are now both seen as the problem because of their long incumbency at Holyrood. I have noticed that friends and family that have voted for either party for years are vocally stating that they intend to switch to either the Tories or the SNP depending who is in 2nd place to a Labour or Libdem MP. Obviously more are switching to the SNP.
119. “But I get this feeling they didn’t make clear to respondees that they were not referring to the 2007 result.”
Even if they made that point crystal clear, I think there would still be potential for confusion. I think of my own sister for instance - an intelligent woman but not remotely interested in politics (perhaps a dubious use of the word ‘but’ there). She voted SNP last year, and I happen to remember she told me she voted Labour in 2005 - but knowing her I’m distinctly dubious about whether she’d remember that herself. So if a pollster asked her how she voted in ‘the general election in 2005′ she might well just remember last year’s vote and say SNP.
By the way, funniest moment of the by-election coverage so far - Labour MP Ian Davidson earnestly trying to convince us that if the cancellation of the 2p tax increase on fuel had been an election bribe, it would only have applied in Glasgow East. If the other parties can’t see that obvious truth, they’re just ‘cynics’, apparently. But why stop there, Ian? Surely a really targetted (not to mention highly Gordone-esque) bribe would be to wait and see who the floating voters were and then slip them fuel discount vouchers on the doorstep?
Good article Mike - shows the pitfalls of past vote recall, especially for parties with <10% in the reference poll - you’d be extremely lucky to get anyone other than a local party activist for that party recalling that they voted for that said party.
Well yet another incredible day on the markets, Wells Fargo announces profits down 23% and big provisions for loan defaults, then the Dow promptly rallies 200 points! However the key technical levels haven’t been breached, and when Citibank, Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan all announce, I’m looking for another potentially big move down in this gathering bear market. Still, I expect a reasonable bear market rally at some point, not yet me thinks.
Not a great day (again) for the Labour candidate.
Her trust on the issue of crime will be undermined by this.
And another campaign gaffe will undermine her on competence and feed the narrative of being in disarray.
The Glasgow East by-election still seems to me dangerous teritory for punters - there are just too many people in the ‘Labour but uncertain’ group who might vote Labour, SNP or not at all, and if we’re honest none of us really know. The Labour effort is reaching colossal heights - I understand from a good source that yesterday saw 200 volunteers out, and 25,000 leaflets distributed in a single day. I’m being discreet about contact rate and vote share estimates, except to say we’ll win if they’re correct, but…? Perhaps the spread market is especially risky right now too - if Labour loses or wins easily, I suspect it’ll shift sharply.
PfP: We’ve chewed over the VAT receipts on fuel before - the belief that VAT takings have gone up at all in recent months, let alone by some huge windfall, is almost certainly false. People spending more on VAT-rated fuel spend less on VAT-rated something else, and as it’s generlaly thoght that people are being more cautious in spending it’s likely that VAT overall is down. You’re right about the levy on North Sea oil production, though - should help in an otherwise difficult period for revenues.
Nick Palmer MP.
I’m out canvassing too and the SNP are very confident. Our organisation is on a completely different level to yours and we know our voters - not guessing and hoping like you. We would never send a mailshot to another candidate begging for a vote like Margaret Curren did to John Mason
I’m sure you’ve been surprised by how friendly people have been (and embarrassed by your own prejudices of this part of Glasgow). Please don’t mistake this for political support.
Bytheway, your posts betray an extreme anxiety and I think you know Labour have lost.
125.The tragic case of that toddler will resonate with a lot of people, I still clearly remember that incident and the media coverage despite living in Aberdeenshire.
On that last campaign gaffe you highlighted, Labour have previous form on this type of misleading leaflets and got themselves into trouble during the 2007 Scottish elections. The activists on the ground will have a real sense of how the campaign is going, I would expect things to get quite heated on the campaign trail between the Labour and the SNP activists in the last few days if Labour are really concerned about the result. Just remember the heated exchanges between both parties in Hamilton last year in the last week of the election campaign.
Election scuffle as tempers fray
pfp I don’t think you can say at this stage that Hamilton is unlikely to win the championship title. It will not be easy but at 9/5 in your speak it seems a reasonable wager.
He believes it will go to the wire and so do I. Ferrari are all over the place organizationally and on race tactics and strategy. Another wet race and Massa is history. BMW are making it clear they have achieved their targets for this year and seem not to be energetically developing this year’s car 9 although they could be sandbagging). There are radical changes in the rules next year.
On the other hand the German test showed the dominance of McLaren with Hamilton at the wheel on that fast Hockenheim which hosts the next race.
The Hungarian, Valencia and Singapore circuits are likely to suit Hamiton and the car, and the chances of wet races in Germany, China and Japan will, if it happens, play for him.
So unlikely, no. Difficult yes. But at least he and Raikkonen start even on points with Massa so it is like a new season.
127. To be fair, judging by Nick Palmer’s posts before he set off for the constituency I don’t think he was remotely prejudiced about what he would find.
I’m encouraged to hear you think the SNP are doing so well, but I don’t know who to believe anymore! (Although I think we can safely rule out ICM.)
pfp there is a very brief form guide for Germany at http://www.itv-f1.com/Feature.aspx?Type=General&id=43356
126.”The Glasgow East by-election still seems to me dangerous teritory for punters - there are just too many people in the ‘Labour but uncertain’ group who might vote Labour, SNP or not at all”
On the money with that comment Nick.
I don’t think the Labour party are out of the woods in this by election unless they win by a comfortable margin. A narrow victory with a sizeable swing to the SNP will send shudders down more than one or two other Westminster MP’s hoping to remain in their jobs after the next GE. Anything less than a comfortable win for Margaret Curran will further undermine Gordon Brown’s position.
ConHom has this tonight on the shifting allegiance of the Daily Mail.
Has Dacre given up on Brown?
Here is the Daily Mail editorial. DAILY MAIL COMMENT: David Cameron is starting to look like a real leader
This comment clearly points to a shift in the editorial line of the newspaper.
“From the very beginning, this paper has supported David Cameron. We are the first to concede, however, that we’ve had more than the occasional doubt about his substance and conviction.”
133.Forgot the link. Here is the Daily Mail editorial. DAILY MAIL COMMENT: David Cameron is starting to look like a real leader
I predict
Lab 7,796
SNP 7,710
LD 2,753
Con 1,179
Sol 503
Grn 328
SSP 237
Ind 101
F4C 42
after 3 recounts, and with lots of jeering and heckling during/after the declaration.
132. It is my opinion that narrowly retaining Glasgow East is probably the worst possible result for Labour. Losing the seat may mean the overthrow of Brown, which would be beneficial to Labour. Winning by a wide margin would help to assuage internal dissension and might even allow Labour to make up a smidge of ground in the polls. But winning narrowly will only increase the jitters within the Labour camp without actually providing the impetus for Brown’s fall.
@79 another reason to detest the current “Government”