Is this what always happens before Labour loses?
July 16th, 2008
Are we seeing a re-run of the politics of the 60s and 70s?
With council workers starting two days of strikes this morning there’s almost a 1960s and 1970s feel to the way the political scene is evolving. For in the run-up to the last time that a Labour government lost power, in 1979, it was public sector industrial action - the so-called “winter of discontent - that dominated the agenda and paved the way for Mrs. Thatcher.
Only five years earlier in 1974 Edward Heath’s Tory government had lost power after his battle with the the miners, then in the public sector, and during a period of massive price hikes in the cost of oil.
It was industrial relations and Labour’s abandoned attempt to curtail trade union power that characterised the period up to the 1970 general election - the only time since the war when a party with a workable commons majority was replaced by another also with an effective majority.
The issues are just the same. Alistair Darling’s call for below inflation level pay increases at a time of rising prices all feels very familiar.
While this is going on the trade unions are putting more pressure on Labour to extend union rights and there’s a story in the Times that looks set to cause a big row - “Companies wanting to win government contracts will be told that they must promote trade union membership”.
Ministers will not need reminding of the parallels with the 1978/79 period when the last Labour leader to have been elevated to the office while the party was in power, James Callaghan, pulled the plug on an autumn general election only to see Labour go down badly the following year.
So can Darling and Brown steer a course out of the latest disputes? It could be crucial to their survival.
Mike Smithson
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The most striking parallel is between Brown and Heath. Some were writing that in September 2007. Gordon Brown? No. Edward Heath.
I guess the Unions have decided that Labour is on the way out, so they must strike while the iron is hot.
Today’s strike will be a bit of a damp squib
I think this in and of itself is not particularly problematic in the ordinary course of events. However coupled with everything else it just feeds into the prevailing theme that the government is losing control of the situation. In that sense there are parallels with the late 70’s in that the Callaghan government after having to go to the IMF was no longer seen as being in control.
Once a party begins to give the appearance of having lost the ability to govern then it is firstly quite difficult to regain that sense of direction and secondly it is all but certain to suffer electorally. Heath lost control of industrial relations in the winter of 73/74 and would probably have struggled to win power at any point after that. Callaghan lost control of the economy and industrial relations in the period between Autumn 78 and Spring 79 so was never likely to win a subsequent election. The Major government lost control of the economy briefly in the Autumn of 1992 but subsequently lost internal self-control and so the appearance was of a government divided and more interested in bashing each other than bashing away for Britain.
This government is slowly giving all the signs of being rudderless and out of control. I suspect history will repeat and that whatever happens between now and the next election (and frankly the portents aren’t good) Labour will be defeated.
The trouble for Unions about calling long strikes is that their members have debts. In the old days they eked out a living during strike action, and survived somehow for weeks. But today their member’s have debts. If they don’t pay their mortgages or their credit cards, the consequences are serious. Is this the final gift of Thatcherism? By making everyone a stakeholder with her ‘property owning democracy’, Thatcher created the situation where Unions cannot really cause mayhem like they used to do, let alone laws on secondary picketing and so on.
OT Radical dentistry. Martin Day @ 390 last thread laughed at the idea of someone having all their teeth out to avoid future dental problems.
This used to be quite common before NHS dentistry. Try googling “wedding present” “teeth extracted”.
In some parts of the country there is still a shortage of NHS dentists. Since this does not affect the middle classes who run the country, the government is concentrating its efforts on making GP services harder to access by the ill and infirm in order to benefit people who are not really ill but would like to pop out for their holiday jabs in their tea break. People like them, in fact.
Occasionally the politicians get there first. On 18 June, Sir Michael Spicer asked the following question at Prime Minister’s Questions: “Why are there always so many strikes at the end of a Labour government?”
Possible strike in SNP-run Scotland too:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/north_east/7506909.stm
Ken Clarke is fond of saying that Labour governments always run out of money.
All Brown needs to do is fly off to another summit, and then on return say. “Crisis, what crisis?”
9 - That’s because they do.
There is some way to go before we have a repeat of ‘mountains of rubbish and the dead left unburied’ but this does feed into the electorate’s psyche of a Government in atrophy.
Quite honestly, if it was a Dog I’d have the vet put it down.
“..their members have debts…the final gift of Thatcherism? By making everyone a stakeholder with her ‘property owning democracy’, Thatcher created .. mayhem..”
If everyone really was “property-owning” then it would be easier for them to go on strike. In the “old days” Union members would face eviction for not paying the rent, yet they still went on strike (even before Council Housing became widespread).
The point you are making, which is less attractive than everyone “owning property”, is that everyone is now slaves to their debt. This is reminiscent of the indentured slavery experienced by many people who crossed the Atlantic before the African slave trade really kicked off in a big way.
All good for the “real” property-owning class, who can continue to live well off the interest payments from this debt.
The Daily Mash examines another bright Labour policy:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brown-to-flood-streets-with-100%2c000-crazed-thugs–200807151094/
The prospect of this government muddling along for the next two years aimlessly without the consent and the votes of the British people is just intolerable to think.
When is the breaking point when they final say ok this needs to stop?
The whole culture of striking as an effective industrial dispute weapon has diminished significantly since the 1970s, not least after being tested to destruction in the Miners’ Strike of 1984-5 which killed the NUM, most of the mining industry and no small part of Labour’s chances in 1987. While the Conservative Party has changed a fair bit under Cameron, I doubt that many union officials would trust a Cameron government not to unleash a second round of union-curbing legislation were a second Winter of Discontent to give it the excuse. Whether or not that judgement’s right (FWIW, I don’t think it would be as severe as I think they do, but there would be measures taken), it has to act as an inhibiting factor to excessive strike action.
There are at least one other important reason for there being no fullscale rerun of 1978/9 - the much lower extent of union membership. It’s no coincidence that most of the strikes that seem to happen are in the public sector: it’s the one area in which a large number of people are employed where union membership is still the norm. I’m less convinced by Tapestry’s point at [5] - if people are more willing to take on debt these days, that should make it easier to strike, providing they are not right up to their limit, and most people aren’t.
On the flip side though, the public mood swing away from strikes means there’s a lower tolerance for them as well, so disruption doesn’t need to be on the same scale to have the same political effect - especially when the public is going through the same financial pain and the perception is that public sector workers are on a cushy number.
6
“Going gummy” was often a direct consequence of the start of the NHS. Getting all your teeth out for free was an opportunity not to be missed.
Re 3, I hope my wife does not see me as a damp squid, for I am on strike today and tomorrow. Mind you she says I have long arms!
This is the first time I have actually struck and have been in a Union of one sort or another for 40 years.
I actually think the cause is right, although in the ballot I voted not to strike, but it was a comfortable majority for action.
Unison actually debated at their recent national Conference not to support Labour. It was lost but only about 60-40, which says a lot for the way things have changed.
Some of that lost suppport would go to the more extreeme left groupings, but I guess in the present climate the Conservatives could get a suprising level, the Lib Dems might be the main gainer, especially being the main tax cutting party at the moment for the lower paid, whilst they increase it for some higher earners.
Are things going to get as bad as the 1970s? The present economic crisis is described by billionaire investor George Soros as the worst in our lifetime. LD Vince Cable says it is starting to look as if we are heading into a 1970s situation.
If Labour had not added 1m jobs to the state payroll but had kept it to about 200k by just employing only more nurses, doctors and teachers, there would be more cash available to pay for the wage rises in the public sector. Now when they need to keep the state payroll on side their cupboard is bare and they are fighting them over the imported inflation that we are all enduring.
To compare this to the, Winter of Discontent’ is somewhat absurd.
The situation with unions was transformed, not only by legislation, but by something even more effective, ‘Debt’.
How do you keep someone on a picket line, who has a mortgage and other debts to service?
The recent fire service strike was a fine example, back in the seventies the fireman just went out, that was it. Seeing a Green Goddess manned by Gurkhas charging through Guildford was a surreal sight.
The tactics of the recent strike, out for 48hrs then back in again,
were because nobody can afford to stay out! The government knew they could overide the disruption, the strike collapsed.
6 / 17 Very popular - and in many cases “expected” when a combination of gum disease and tooth decay or the peppering of teeth with fillings - that all teeth were taken out. My parents’ teeth were taken out in the late 50s / around 1960 for instance - and other friends’ parents had the same. The development of “conservative dentistry” (apologies to all those on the left!) in the late 60s / 70s, as I remember, anabled those of us in the baby boomer generation and subsequent to avoid this fate. Whether this would have had the same outcome without an NHS Dental Service, who knows, except to say that now, with patchy services, less of us are actually seeing our dentists regularly or at all.
There are parallels. What interests me is why Unions continue to support a Party that is adding to their problems. Interestingly I am told many of the votes for strike action were very close. Many staff are not keen on the strike but frightened about crossing pickets.
19 — the real problem with public sector finance is that most of the so-called investment has been siphoned out to the private sector by PFI, consultancy and so on.
Coldstone is exactly right - I work in local government and several of my colleagues have either resigned from Unison in disgust, or ignored the strike and came in this morning.
No one can afford more than 2 days off!
Interestingly the GMB aren’t out - and many Unison people are now joining the ‘Evil Empire’ …
13. Most people with property also have debt. If you have assets, they are financed with a combination of debt and equity. You have outgoings, which have to be met or your credit rating is at risk, along with your ability to buy what you want in future.
I don’t think VISA, MASTERCARD or AMERICAN EXPRESS listen to the excuses. If you miss payments you are downgraded, regardless of the cause.
If you strike, you need a very big pay rise to compensate for your lost earnings and lost creditworthiness. I don’t think Union strike pay has kept up with the game.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/16/labour
Derek Draper has returned to the Labour Party after working as a psychotherapist “experienced at treating emotional and psychological issues including: self-esteem, personal development, depression, anxiety, addictions, self-harm, personality problems and family and relationship concerns”,
Should be perfect for looking after Brown and the rest of the cabinet then.
25 Dolly Draper is a complete NuLab idiot. He will simply add to the guff that comes out of Browns office……… if they have sunk to this level they surely know the game is up.
When my grandfather went on strike, in 1926, the family lived on ‘tick’ not a concept that Tesco’s would understand.
He and some friends also caught and killed one of the pit ponies, that had been let loose to graze. When the police called round, (some one told) they did not accept his explanation, that what was simmering in the copper, was rabbit!
He did 14 days in Cardiff Prison for that!
27. Today he’d get his home burnt out and acid thrown on his wife’s face by the ALF…
These strikes could creat real problems for the government. Due to the idiocy of the Equality Act many groups of workers now by law have to be paid the same amount of money even if they do completely different jobs. So if say the binmen go out on strike, the bin bags start to pile up in the streets, the local council can’t just give them a pay rise to resolve the strike but would have to give pay rises to a whole lot of unconnected workers.
18. The Lib Dems will keep Labour in power for you, if that is your desire.
I am a higher earner, and I don’t pay much UK tax at all. Gordon converted National Insurance into a Tax, making it the same as Income Tax, in effect so that people are now taxed at 65% including employer’s and employee’s contributions. To pay myself £35,000, my company needs to pay £100,000. Do you think I’m stupid? I now live overseas.
As for Lib Dems wanting to increase it even more, forget it. 2 million people have left Britain in the last ten years. There will be double that in the next ten years, if the mad Socialists get their way.
Tax and Spend results in in Tax and Send of productive people and risk-takers going elsewhere.
IHT in Australia is zero. CGT in the country I dwell in is 1% and Income Tax 30%. Corporation Tax in Ireland is 12.5%,. Britain is way out of line. Too many regard personal wealth as immoral and socially divisive, allowing the idiots who govern the country to have all the money. Look at the bloody waste they make of it, and you want to give them more!!!!! Goodbye.
O/T - Heffer is becoming more and more of a self-parody isn’t he. He has 2/3 of a good article but wrecks it by reverting to type in the last couple of paragraphs.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/07/16/do1601.xml
21, 30. One of the many many many reasons I am tempted to live permanently in Thailand (apart from the fish curries and the non existent tax and a beautiful half-Chinese girl called Neung) is the brilliant CHEAP dentistry.
An hour long check up and serious clean by a highly trained dentist in a hi-tech dental surgery is… £10. Fillings are a fiver. Cosmetic dentistry is a quarter the price it is in the UK.
Go figure.
Anyway now I have to drive to Santander before flying back to Crisis-Hit Britain. Ciaociao for now.
Mike S - I think there’s a word missing from the title of the post, it doesn’t seem to quite make sense as it is now..
re 33. Spot on. I’ve added the missing word.
Good morning all,
I have said since the beginning of last year that we are in a repeat of 74/79 which ended with the SNP helping the Tories to bring down a Labour Government.
History repeating itself? We will know next Friday.
Its quite simple, if Local Government employees want private sector type pay rises then let them work for similar conditions to the millions of ordinary private sector workers, i.e. no longer final salary pension schemes because Gordon Brown has stolen 125 billion pounds from private pension schemes driving tens of thousands of schemes into the red.
Equally why on earth have thousands of classroom assistants if not simply to reduce unemployment? What do they do apart from hold the coats and hand out books? We didnt have such things in the 1960s and 1970s and when we left school we could read, write and spell. Nowadays most graduates cannot do any of these things. Only this idiotic government and its pals in the out-of-touch think tanks believe education has improved in the past decade.
Get rid of the classroom assistants and instead use the money to pay for more teachers and books in the schools.
As for dentists, roughly 5 million people in the UK have no access to an NHS dentist yet the Government decided in September last year that Britain doesn’t need any more dentists. Why else would it remove employed dentists from the list of priority occupations for immigration.
the sooner Brown goes the better but sadly he wont be going anywhere before June 2010 regardless of the number of Crewe and Nantwiches or hopefully Glasgow Easts!
Off to do some work.
re 32. That’s something to chew over Sean
36 - aren’t you getting a little long in the tooth for that kind of humour, Mike?
Guido has an update on Glasgow East and last nights story ..
http://www.order-order.com/2008/07/exclusive-glasgow-east-labour-fakes-93.html
If the public sector workers went out on strike in GEast would there actually be anyone in work there?
32: SeanT do you still think Gordon Brown was an excellent Chancellor?
Why is Vince Cable a Lib Dem? He seems to talk sense quite often which is odd for them. He has it absolutely right about Brown, I’ve mislaid the link now but he said yesterday that Brown was “asleep at the wheel” during the debt bubble years.
Day by day the news gets worse. At least now the MSM is slowly waking up to the nightmare. It’s game over, the only question is will we go for hyperinflation and money printing to get rid of debts, or will we “do a Japan” and have years of deflation (but without the manufacturing industry to partially soften the blow, or the work ethic)?
Tapestry where do you live? I might be tempted.
38. New Liebour continues its trail of mendacity and deceit.
38 I do not know why anyone is puzzled that Labour’s Margaret Curran does not know who she is pictured with, she does not live there.
The question is are the SNP up to delivering leaflets on this?
40 Vince has changed his tune on Brown. When it was the common view in the media that Brown was an able Chancellor, Vince Cable praised his time there. Now Vince has chosen to attack him on his record.
@43:
We are all but slaves to the ‘narrative’.
6 - “in order to benefit people who are not really ill but would like to pop out for their holiday jabs in their tea break” - what, the people who actually pay for the whole crumbling edifice? One of the partial successes of this government is allowing people who work normal hours access to a GP without having to take time off work. Now it’s not great - I haven’t actually got a GP; if I need to visit the doctor I have to go to some dilapidated walk-in centre - but it’s better than no medical services at all.
No chance of a dentist here though, it seems…
unemployment up again
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7508816.stm
46, it’s strange that everyone wets their pants with indignation at the prospect of removing the NHS (ie free medical treatment) but nobody notices that eye and dental care, which almost everyone has at least some issues with, are not subsidised at all and partially subsidised.
It irks me that I have to pay £240 for lenses (in 2004, last time I bought glasses) but people can get IVF and tattoo removal on the NHS.
O/T The Mirror takes another plunge..
price change % 52 wk-h 52 wk-l
43.25 -11.50 -21.00 557.50 54.75
47 was meant for 45.
46, doesn’t include the latest building firm news though.
43: True, but where are the tories? Osbourne should be making absolute mincemeat of the government’s economic performance, where the ‘growth’ of the past few years has all been borrowed from the future, and precious little has been productive real growth. But he’s bleating irrelevances about stamp duty or going missing in action.
Anyone else get the feeling, after Cameron’s comments on tax yesterday, that the tories are actually not much looking forward to being in office? The economy will be in a right old mess with precious little to be done except for swingeing spending cuts (Sort of on topic, final salary pensions for the public sector will have to go for a start). Certainly they want labour to cling on until the last possible minute so there’s a fighting chance of growth returning for 2015.
50. You obviously missed newsnight last night - where he didn’t mention stamp duty. When was the last time Gordon or Alistair were on Newsnight ?
49 indeed it does not, things are going to get a whole lot worse, there wasn’t even a rally in the stock market this morning after yesterdays plunge , the FTSE is down 12
50, the next government will face tough issues not of its own making (unless a miracle happens and Labour wins). I think the public will give them a bit of slack.
Further, Labour may end up mirroring the Tories post 1997, but without a charismatic Yorkshireman in charge. If the economy starts improving and Labour pick an idiot (not beyond them given the wide range of idiots they have to choose from) then 2014/5 could be like 1983.
In Scotland we have the absurd situation of councils offering staff courses and help at council tax payers expense to give up smoking. In Aberdeen the fireman are planning to go on strike because the Fire Brigade sacked a fireman who was too fat to safely do his job even though it had spent months and probably a fair amount of council taxpayers money trying to help him with diets and advice on sensible eating.
Political correctness gone mad. The sooner the people of this country start to accept that they are responsible for their own lives the sooner sanity will return. No doubt Pa Broon will set up another commission to talk about it.
Unemployment risen the most for 15 years, lets see Pa Broon blame John Major for that one! No doubt he will have a damn good try. He used to claim the credit for the 20 quarters of growth under John Major until someone pointed out to him we could all count up to 60!
51, saw Newsnight, what a load of rubbish. Firstly it led on Murat, and then it claimed the economic problems were creating all sorts of difficulties for the Tories. They aren’t in power, and haven’t been since 1997, when the economy was doing rather better. No Labour bloke to speak of. Tosh!
47 Morris Dancer, eye exams and treatment is free on the NHS in Scotland.
56, *kicks the idiot who made devolution so lopsided and biased against the English*
Aye, and so’s tuition. Devolution’s cost me about £4,000 in total. I wouldn’t mind if we had an English Parliament but apparently some of the electorate is more equal than others.
55. Gavin E obviously saw it as his chance to audition for the Paxman role. His interviewing style was garbage - failed to get the soundbite he was looking for and interrupted GO continuously. The veiwer was left no wiser as to anything other than the realisation that Mr Essler is a tw*t.
O/T - 2p fuel duty rise to be scrapped.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7509156.stm
Darling postpones 2p tax rise on petrol. What state will the finances be in by the time these self serving w@nkers are kicked out?
BETTING POST.
Well I’ve re-entered the GE spread seats market today. The only thing that has been holding me back is the possibility that Brown could be replaced before the next GE. I think this less and less likely but also less and less relevant for a couple of reasons.
First and foremost, Brown is no longer the main issue. His clear lack of leadership skills is being overshadowed by the bigger story. “It’s the economy, stupid!” While the global economic picture takes some of the heat directly off the government, as people start to hurt they will increasingly be open to and welcome a change of government.
The economy is not likely to improve in time for the next GE. The Labour PLP are not convinced that a change of leadership would improve the electoral situation. So it is all set fair for the Tories. They have large current opinion poll leads, a gloomy economic picture that will persist up until the next GE, a growing assuredness and competence exemplified particularly by Cameron and Osborne and their most favoured opponent, Brown, likely to still be in place going into that election.
Neither a shorter economic downturn than is predicted, nor a change in the Labour leadership prior to the GE seem likely to prevent at least a small overall Tory majority next time, in my view. So the risk at present on buying Tories, selling Labour I would say is about 10-15 seats, while the upside could be considerable.
40 John C most of the debt is sourced in other currencies but nominated in pounds. So somewhere along the line something would have to give in a high inflationary spike and that would be the pound. So we would be in a worse position with more imported inflation and petrol prices rather more than a wheel barrow of tenners a litre.
Oh, and our food would be spuds and parsnips, and to drink sir? Water, certainly sir.
46 - Interesting to note that the article continues the BBC line that “the rate of inflation hit an 11-year high of 3.8% in May”.
This rather dubious view is shared by the Daily Mirror and the Independent, although the Sun, Guardian, Times and Telegraph all agree that it is the highest level since May 1992 - 16 years ago.
In fairness, the Times gets it slightly wrong, mentioning May 1992 but suggesting this is a 15 year high.
59
complete non story, Govt will get no credit for it. is there any surprise that its been done on a Wed?? Gordo is sure to refer to it at PMQ’s
63 Yet The Mirror ran a story saying inflation was 18.53%…………..
16.Union membership is lower overall but the areas where strikes are most likely is in the public sector. Union membership is much higher in the public sector and thus the impact is not to be underestimated. If Council and central government services are aflicted by strikes - they will have severe impact on the nation.
The govt is now officially out of control. They will say anything and spend any amount of money to try and cling to power. The country will be completely bankrupt by the time these idiots are thrown out of office. We should noe=w be very wary of a sterling crisis and debt downgrade by rating agencies.
As someone who had to walk through a picket line this morning- I work for the NHS, but work in a county council bulding, I genuinely feel sorry for many of the lowest paid people who do jobs that you couldn’t imagine- care in the community for the elderly, mentally ill and so forth.
This strike will not amount to much IMO, but adds to the overall public perception that the government is out of touch, lost it’s way, and lost its grip over things.
64. No surprise at all!
63 - The are going on the basis that the CPI only started being calculated in 1997 and that prior values are assumed values not actual values.
70. Should that not mean a headline of “highest inflation ever” then ?
65. The Mirror obviously don’t include their own shares in their inflation figure
George Osborne
“youth unemployment is now higher than the OECD average whereas in 1997 it was way below”
http://tinyurl.com/5744ff
64 It is noticeable that the Govt often rushes out announcements on the morning of PMQs.
#72
Article lifted from last Friday’s The Economist. The OECD blames the failing education system.
Geesh, that Blair was an effing good liar. Reminds me of an Anglo-Danish king…!
Here’s a provocative little post seen on http://www.order-order.com/ this morning. As a taxpayer I do hope the poster is making this up:
“OT. I have to laugh at all the striking public sector workers on the radio phone-ins this morning declaring how committed and dedicated they are to the highest levels of public service, how they regularly do hours of unpaid overtime, etc etc and all for a pittance of a wage.
Well the picture I saw as a public sector worker over three years (Youth Justice Team in Social Services) was vastly different. The levels of blatant skiving, expenses fiddling, stroppiness, idleness, sloppiness etc were unbelievable. Apart from a minority of hard-working staff, most were there to whinge, rip off the system, and basically take the piss. Half of them were off at any one time, either “sick”, on TOIL (time off in lieu) courses, etc. There were no more than 10% who worked the 35 hours they were contracted to do. Most just strolled in to fill in their grossly inflated travel expense claims, moan about something, and rip-off the TOIL system. Very few had any worthwhile qualifications, were thick but cunning, and several were barely literate and had trouble communicating in English.
Despite this, all of them would claim that they were dedicated, hard-working, achieving marvellous results (bullshit!)and were being exploited by the employers.
If taxpayers knew what they were getting for their money then they would be the ones going on strike.
July 16, 2008 9:44 AM”
59 - So first Labour term = tax and don’t spend; second Labour term = tax and spend expansively; now they’re trying spend and don’t tax.
76 Don’t forget the billions Brown’s borrowed and now has to be paid back with interest.
Government to scrap another tax ? Shurely some mistake ?
http://www.knightfrank.com/news/directnews/Government_pondering_stamp_duty_move_01178.aspx
A Whitehall official told the Daily Mail: “Ministers and officials are very exercised about the housing market and they are looking at a lot of different measures.”
Possible moves could include changes to thresholds or rates of the tax, a suspension of it for first-time buyers or a deferment of payments.
76 - Covering most of the bases, it will take a Conservative government to go for the optimum combination. Don’t spend too musc and don’t tax too much!
78 - They will probably go for a deferred payment scheme, which looks attractive until you realise that first time buyers will get x months into buying their house to be slapped with a several thousand pound bill. Nice!
78 Fiddling about with stamp duty rates when house prices are set to fall by at least 20% from their 2007 highs is like re-arranging the Titanic’s deckchairs.
Emailed Betfair this morning re a turnover market at Glasgow East. Just had a reply from the delightfully named Chantel Kemp - the market I asked for is now up plus one for the SNP percentage.
81. Gordon will probably annouce the crash as “milliyuns of home’s now free of stamp duty”
75 Well I’ve worked in both the private and public sectors in my time and the level of idleness/incompetence/skiving etc is pretty similar in both IMO.
The level of competence shown in certain parts of the private sector - banks for instance - has not been particularly impressive in recent years.
Looking at the SNP vote share market I think the 30.01% or more (the highest given) is going to be favourite!!
On the central point of the thread, I do not think we are seeing a re-run of the end of previous Labour governments. Firstly, the scale of unrest is not as severe. Secondly, there is no real fear of massive union power of a Conservative Party promising to “fight” the unions.
There are a lot of economic concerns around for sure, but the nature of the concerns is just very different to then. And the result may well be the same, but I think the comparison of the circumstances is somewhat bogus.
86 “or” rather than “of” at the end of the first para.
78. stamp duty
biggest problems with it at the moment are
(a) step change at certain thresholds, making it v. difficult to sell a house just above a threshold, and very unfair.
it should be (e.g.) free up to 250k, x% on all value above that.
(b) thresholds are the same all over the country despite huge disparity in prices. FTBs around here have to pay stamp duty - there simply aren’t any houses around for less than 250k. elsewhere in the country people can easily progress to a large family home without ever having to worry about it.
it should be regionalised in some way.
88. The lower stamp duty threshold is £120,000 so most first-time buyers everywhere get hit by it.
88 - Personally there woudl be problems with regionalising it as you have to have regional boundaries and it would become a nightmare. Frankly I would be more in favour of scrapping it altogether.
73. Is it Wednesday already?
I predict Cameron will NOT ask a question about the Farnborough Air Show promoting weapons sales to various dictatorships and feudal monarchies.
84 For a variety of reasons (eg stringent contractual terms, heavy unionisation) it’s harder to get rid of public sector workers who are bad at their jobs than it is to get rid of their private sector equivalents.
Probably the biggest difference is there is more of a realisation among private sector workers that poor performance might actually sink the organisation they work for, whereas no amount of poor performance actually jeapordises the survival of a public sector organisation.
92. This can also apply to very large corporations.
90. I agree it should be totally scrapped immediately to hopefully at least slow down the current housing market freefall. This action also would not be inflationary and may alleviate the almost certain prospect of alarming unemployment levels in jobs related to housebuilding.
91 - If I were David Cameron I would be asking about the current Government process of drawing up taxation policy, which seems to be in a complete shambles this morning. We are onto our third iteration of taxation policy so far this year, and it’s only July.
86. Yes, of course the scale of the inflation and industrial unrest is much lower than in the 1970s. But the tolerance of the public is also surely much lower. Back then, a lot of the voters still remembered the severe austerity of the wartime period and the immediate aftermath. Also trade union militancy was an established part of the political and social scene.
Things are very different now - the voters have got used to steady economic growth, low inflation, high house prices and a singular lack of trade union problems. Suddenly, all these positives are turning into negatives - it’s a major shock.
75 My mum has just retired after 35 years of service with our local county council. Her last job was helping to run a day centre for the elderly and her comments about the work ethic of staff are shocking. Being a 65 year old she obviously took pride in her work and turned up every day and often did extra unpaid hours to ensure that the ‘customers’ were looked after properly. Everyone else who worked there was basically taking the piss, most took at least one day off a week, some took weeks off with spurious medical conditions and not one was sacked. The reality is that its almost impossible to be sacked from a council job due to the ludicrous legislation imposed by this govt.
We might as well just set light to our money rather than pay it in tax to these idiots.
96- runnymede- good post. Everything has its context, and there is little point comparing today with the 70’s. By that logic we could go back to the dark ages and be thankful that we are not keeling over with starvation and plague.
I do think we were happier in the 70’s. For all our naughties raised expectations, comparative wealth, technology, gadgets, entertainment, I still remember the complete exhiliration of going to see Jaws at the cinema, going to Blackpool for a day trip, and spending many aimless summer days out with my friends with no adults to be seen.
30 - I am in a similar position as yourself - I live abroad and regularly have to refuse job offers in UK because of the high (& hidden) taxes. I would not object to paying 25% of my income in tax, but am not going to agree to 50%+. Result taxman gets zero from me.
Holland for example where expats can return and pay only 25% tax for 3 (or is it 5) years. You only go onto full tax if you then change job. Other countries have similar schemes while Britain just encourages tax evasion (sorry - that is illegal - I meant to say tax mitigation!!)
The psychology of recessions is interesting.
The sort of anecdote Kas relates at 97 would have been dismissed with a shrug, a sigh and the feeling that it’s an isolated case two years ago. Today, we believe it’s widespread and endemic and it makes us all angry.
The key areas that shoot up the agenda in hard times are:
1. Lazy public sector workers - “I’m paying their wages.”
2. Benefit claimants - “I’m working all hours and they’re slobbing on the sofa.”
3. Immigrants - “We should look after our own first.”
3a. Anyone who’s not our skin colour - “They’re not really British are they? Who do they support at cricket?”
4. Taxes - “What do they spend it all on, those grasping MPs.”
5. Grasping MPs.
97. A possible solution to this problem would be for public sector organisations to be required to cut a small % of their workforce every year. It nmay be the only way to prevent the inexorable growth of overmanning and inefficiency.
98. Children certainly had a better time in the 1970s - much more freedom than now.
75 and 97- kas and voxpop- worth picking out these posts to remind myself to skip reading any of your comments again.
103 suits me. Ignore reality as ever
101. Runnymede, you might be interested to know one of the ways that Wandsworth Council has been able to set the lowest council tax in the country every year since the tax came in.
Each council department has to offer up 10% of potential cost savings each year - what they offer is up to the department and their lead councillors. Senior councillors - since 2002 the Cabinet - select the savings to implement. Concentrates the mind wonderfully.
The results speak for themselves; lowest council taxes, highest rated services in London.
as this is the last PMQs before recess, I expect a more scattergun approach from cameron, concentrating on Browns failures and the high cost of living but asking a variety of questions on these subjects. He may mention the help for small businesses he announced yesterday. Possibly also the knife u-turn.
105. Thanks for that - sounds extremely sensible and should be rolled out nationwide.
101- they do- called gershon efficiency savings.
I really wouldn’t listen to 97.
Worth remembering that the growth in public services is mainly based on responding to the ever increasing expectations by the public for services- schools, health, law and order, care for the elderly, childcare provision, pension and dircet payments.
These will only increase over time. The Tories know this as much as anyone- the dividing line between the parties is based more on who provides them, and which bits do you place extra priority over.Even this is getting incredibly blurred
89. my mistake. the 1-3% jump is a killer which is why i focussed on that.
90. maybe so, but regionalising is better than keeping the existing system. rather than regional boundaries, how about a stamp duty predicated on the qualities of the house, e.g. half a percent per bedroom, or a certain amount per sq ft. more complicated maybe but fairer also.
109 - Window tax!
108. The ‘inexorable growth’ argument is a very convenient cover for inefficiency though. Demand for many products provided by the private sector is also growing rapidly, but the providers of these products don’t exhibit the same trend of ever-increasing workforces and stagnant productivity.
110. yes! awesome.
actually quite a few (georgian?) houses around me have blank walls where windows used to be as a result of that little wheeze. bit of a shame aesthetically, but a nice historical curio.
Do MPs know that PMQs is televised?
A planted question gets a planted answer.
Darling has an American-style tie so is clearly unreliable.
Good quip from DC re planted questions.
111. I think it’s a bit of a myth that the private sector does not experience ever-increasing workforces or stagnant productivity.
most businesses choose to grow as fast as possible until they dominate their chosen market, and then beyond a certain point they stagnate as a large monolithic organisation. and that is ignoring the “inefficiency” of companies that start up, fail to capture market share, go bust, and lay everyone off.
the problems mentioned above are much more to do with scale, quality of management and workforce than they are with public vs. private.
109 - I see nothing unfair with the current system. Stamp duty is a wonderful tax, easy to administer, hard to avoid. The amount paid can be made to correlate closely to the value of the property. I see no reason why taxpayers in poorer areas should subsidise first time buyers in richer areas. Indeed, it would be better to make the poorer areas more attractive for people to live in. Your suggestion of regionalising would do the precise reverse of this.
payrental supervision???
116. Inefficiency certainly isn’t limited to the public sector. But in the private sector there are clear mechanisms for its ultimate elimination, which you yourself correctly outline. In the public sector, there are not, so inefficiency can become entrenched indefinitely.
117. the division is not really between poor and rich people or poor and rich areas, in my opinion. although it does depend a little on how you define “rich”.
FTBs in rubbish crime-ridden ghettos in the south are up against it with stamp duty, middle classes in big houses in good areas in some parts of the “north” are not.
Gordon is mad!
120 - Then why not encourage the first time buyers to move north through fiscal policies? There’s a reason that they want to live in rubbish crime-ridden ghettos. Why should you encourage still more people to do so?
‘Highest ever employment figures’
Highest ever national population aswell. Why does no-one in are largely useless media ever rebuke Brown for this?
122. maybe you are right, but i guess the answer lies in where the jobs are presently located. stamp duty does not influence the businesses in the same way, the result is people putting up with squalour and commuting a long way to get to the jobs.
117. At the moment the housing market is rapidly vanishing along hundreds of thousands of jobs it provides and taxing it appears to me to be utterly inappropiate!
125. Ooops - insert “with” after along.
116. Yes, a lot of the relative efficiency of the private sector comes from economies of scale through growth. This is not possible for local government with fixed boundaries. In fact, if you suggest amalgamating districts or getting rid of the county/district duplication its usually the Tories who complain loudest.
123. problem is that no single figure is definitive. quoting unemployment provokes a chorus of people complaining that disability benefit is not included, etc., none of the figures really include poppulation growth adequately, etc. etc.
he has to quote some number.
125 - There is a case for suspending stamp duty when to do so might kick-start the housing market. That time has not yet been reached, and removing it now would be to deprive the Exchequer of income without achieving that policy objective. It would be better to wait until the market is closer to turning. I’m afraid that is quite some way away yet.
Brown giving a wretched performance at PMQ’s today. Evasive - and clearly lost his temper with Cameron. Face like thunder as he sat down.
His final PMQ’s? Will we really see him back in October?
119. plenty of private sector companies have completely entrenched inefficiency - especially once they reach a certain size.
127. I don’t think that growth in remit is necessary to encourage efficiency, quite the opposite in fact. economies of scale tend to be offset by lack of manage-ability and accountability.
130 - One word - somnolent.
130
I can’t see Gordo as I’m listening on the http://www. but he sounded terrible on the radio too. The “useless” gibe obviously got to him.
128. Yes, but if the population increases by 2 million, you’d think the number of people in emplyment would be going up wouldn’t you?
I know about the figures are fiddled. A man I know, just turned 60 has been given pension credits. Yet he shouldn’t be getting his pension till 65.
130. I disagree, I think he has been better than usual.
Public sector spending has risen and risen as a percentage of GDP and has now become unaffordable. Yes people’s expectations have risen but as we slip into recession, tax revenues decline, sterling depreciates, inflation rises, government debt explodes, people are going to have to get use to the state doing less. Our economy simply can’t maintain the level of government spending, we are currently seeing.
According to Ernst & Young, real disposble incomes after necessities have fallen by 15% over the last five years and we will be very lucky if they don’t fall by more than that over the next three or four years. Commodity price inflation can’t simply be ignored because it is driven by the fact a large proportion of the world’s population is working far harder than us and is becoming ever more productive. They are going to consume more and we will have to consume a lot less.
This recession will force our society to realise that we can no longer afford to employ large numbers of people in non productive jobs in the public sector. Moreover the malaise isn’t only there, PC/equality legislation has meant that one of the most rapidly expanding areas of companies is human resources which contributes nothing to productivity. I wonder if anyone will be suggesting we need more paternity leave, when unemployment rises to 3m.
134. I think the useless jibe may be a tad ott
I have 20 black bin bags outside my house waiting to be collected. I bet they wont come until next week now. Grr I missed the collection by an hour last week and they threatened to fine me. What kind of backwards place fines people for putting their rubbish out late or on the wrong day? Everyone makes mistakes.
138. Entirely accurate though
103 Childish posturing, tyson. In fact, just what I expect from you, sunshine.
139. Even more frustrating when you pay their wages as well.
135. you would expect both employment and unemployment to be rising somewhat. regularly setting record levels of employment _is_ something to be pleased about in itself, as it shows a strong growing economy, and implies that the population increases are not just causing mass unemployment. but as you say it is not necessarily surprising or unusual, and not something to boast about all the time without caveat.
142. Well I get an exemption being a student so that doesn’t really bother me. But this is the 3rd week in my house and they come either at 6am or not at all. I was sensible enough to put it out late last night but oh no, they’re not here. Gah, I’m not carrying them through the house again for a 4th time this month. *angry*
Timely that inflation is hot topic here at the moment. Brown was telling porkies about there being rising inflation in 97 that he brought down.
129 et al
The problem with the housing market is that prices are ridiculously high as a result of far, far too lax lending criteria and a national irrational abseession with Properdee which has led to a massive unsustainable bubble. Prices are way out of line with average incomes, which is why they are heading for a 40% fall.
The problem is not stamp duty, it is the prices. End of.
Paying people’s stamp duty in an attempt to start the market is as likely to succeed as paying for people’s tax discs is likely to increase sales of Aston Martins. It is Canute-like drivel, but I note with interest that it is also the policy of the ever more frustratingly inept tories.
To only hint at abolishing it (until it is either actually done, or explicitly ruled out) will in any case only cause those few currently considering buying to wait, thus further stagnating the market. Genius.
UK bank shares geting clobbered again today. Particularly HBOS, currently down 12%. Perhaps a friendly, and solvent, Spanish bank would like to make ‘em an offer?
Or then again, perhaps not?
143. Unemployment has risen 45,000 in the last few months, and is going to rise much faster over the next year. Brown’s comments about record levels of employment are going to sound increasingly irrelevant.
In the 1980s, we also had both employment and unemployment rising at the same time for a number of years, due to a rising working population. But the crucial difference between then and now is that back then, the incomes of people in work - and their house prices - were rising strongly. So most of the voters felt well off and were happy to ignore the high level of unemployment.
This time round, even those still in work will feel insecure and badly off, while the unemployed will be in despair. It’s toxic for Labour.
for the record, this is the ONS take on employment vs unemployment at the moment.
“The trend in the employment rate is increasing, the trend in the unemployment rate is flat and the trend in the inactivity rate is falling.”
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12
146 Exactly. Stamp duty is largely irrelevant in the scheme of things and it’s revision would certainly not “kick-start” the housing market.
It’s all far more fundamental than that. The financial cycle is now turning with a vengeance and the massive UK house price bubble, fuelled for years by cheap, easy credit, is busting as credit disappears and millions are left up to their ears in debt.
There’s pain to come for many and tinkering around the edges won’t stop it.
148. to be fair, we all know how the ’80s ended! hopefully lower unemployment now will see a much softer landing, although there is no guarantee of that.
Nick Robinson (not direct quote but pretty close): “PMQs was dull as nobody now thinks Brown will go. A few weeks ago some people thought he could go over the next few weeks. Now nobody thinks this.”
149 Ed, I give you credit for being one of the few Labour supporters on here who try to back up your arguments with figures but you’re whistling in the dark as you must realise. The huge retail, construction, and financial sectors, amongst others, are heading for the rocks taking hundreds of thousands of jobs down with them.
A bit ‘disgusted of Tunbridge Wells’, today’s thread - public sector workers are lazy and should be sacked, carers at day centres are taking the piss, early-morning rubbish collection is an outrage, higher-rate taxation is appalling, equalities legislation is bad. Tories with the leash off are a pretty repellent sight…
152 LOL. Nick Robinson, Brown’s most vociferous shill at the BBC.
154 “Tories with the leash off are a pretty repellent sight”
So are Labour MPs, dissembling, misrepresenti