The Tories hit 47% with MORI
July 23rd, 2008
Will this increase the nervousness amongst MPs in the marginals?
The pollster which has been operating in the UK for longer than anybody else has just published their Monitor for July 2008 and it shows a move towards the Conservatives and the biggest lead for the party in decades.
These are the figures with comparisons on a month ago CON 47% (+2): LAB 27% (-2): LD 15% (-2). These figures, like all MORI surveys are based on those “certain to vote”. The fieldwork ended on July 20th - so it’s up to date.
The pollster which is the only one that does not applying a political weighting to its samples. has undergone a major methodological review which took place following the London Mayoral election. All surveys are now done by telephone and the pollster takes measures to ensure that it is not over-representing public sector workers in its samples
These latest findings mean that that two of the five firms - ICM and Populus - that regularly survey GB voting intentions have shown a narrowing of the gap over Labour while the other three - MORI, ComRes and YouGov - are reporting the opposite effect.
There was a marked move away from the Conservatives on the spread betting commons seats markets following the ICM Guardian poll on Monday night that showed that the gap was narrowing. Will this change that?
By-election betting - live latest prices
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Any records broken?
Interesting to see the Lib Dems still languishing behind Labour by a large margin.
As a LD I cannot spin my way out of this one.
How long before Gabble excitedly tells us that Labour only need a 5% swing to get a hung Parliament?
And Morus’ Glasgow East Poll shows that we think SNP will win (though only 7 have voted so far):
To vote in the poll go here http://tinyurl.com/5zfmth and scroll a long way down!
Why have we gone all italic?
5, I think Mike forget to close the tag.
Baxter prediction from this poll:
Con 434 Lab 168 LD 20
Tory majority of 218
Presumably this is their monthly poll not picked up by any news outlet.
O/T but I’d lay Palin for VP is you had any cash on her, there’s a potential scandal brewing.
http://community.adn.com/adn/node/127456
2 TBH Mori’s reputation was hit by London quite hard. Only time will prove if they are on the right track. The Lib Dem panic measure was and remains ICM. As long as they show you’re Ok you can sleep safely.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 44.6% .. Lab 26.4% .. LibDem 17.4% .. Others 11.6%
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 393 seats .. Lab 175 .. LibDem 46 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 136.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
An absolute shocker for the LibDems - surely the value sell bet in the GE Seats markets since any recovery by Labour will result in their being squeezed even further.
3 — How long before Gabble comes here to crow over the FTSE like it’s his mother’s milk?
11 see 9 this is Mori not ICM remember. Only fools will rely on Mori until they have spent years building their reputation in political polling again.
10 What time do we hear on Glasgow.
“Politico” looks at the rarity of Democratic members of Congress under pressure this autumn :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11970.html
Its unusual for me to be the voice of optomism for the LD on here but I’m not panicing over this. Its the forth poll in a row recording a 1% fall in support. I think peter dumphey has blogged on this and it confirms my anecdotal impression that the LD’s always cool a little in June and July as media attention drains away, the Ropa inspired media boost in april cools as well as the election blitz of focuses.
Please correct me if I’m wrong but I think the extant ratings from the big five for the party are 19,19,18,16,15.
very healthy compared to the 92/97 and 97/01 parliaments mid term. very disappointing compared to 01/05.
Why this is and what we do about it is a whole thread really. The big question for everyone is does now cameron have a lock on the anti labour franchise?
14 Punter. Around 9.00pm tonight !!
not 9.00am tonight Jack
16. It certainly looks that way. The Lib Dems now face enormous difficulties just in being heard, especially at the national level.
Agree with 16. The LDs are hit by not being in the news. Since politics generally is quieter from June-Sep I think the LDs get hit by that more than the others.
16 See Norfolk Blogger.
But in the General Election campaign, which will last for 6 months if Gordon hangs on, Cable and Ashdown will provide the experience and Clegg the novelty. If you bet £10 a seat on the Lib Dems you risk a lot less than betting on either of the other two parties.
16 what did the LDs poll in the 2005 GE?
I too would love a LibDem thread. To my mind a fascinating thing is how Cameron has hoovered up anti-Labour voters. on paper the LibDems should have surged against a feeble ruling party. I think the reason they have not done so is that they attack the popular Tories more than the hated Government and are now starting to be seen as a left, not a center, party.
18 Icarus. Only for Aussie PBers !!
16 - 01/05 midterm gave the LDs a boost becuase of you know what. If we were still looking at the 11-15 range, it would be pretty awful. But Clegg is starting to hit his stride, as some of the more unkind contributors here even acknowledge.
Once, or indeed if, we can get the message across about cutting taxes, it will be harder for the Tories to portray us, as is their want, as Labour-lite.
Sure we’ll pick up a few percent during the conference, but that usually melts away as the other parties have theirs.
I am concerned that some in the party see PR as the price for propping up one party or another. Nice though PR may be, and I am not much more convinced about any of the options that I am about FPTP, it is not enough of a wish list for climbing into bed with Labour.
It is a hard job for the LDs, that, for example, while the party may have voted a few years ago to privatise the PO, the activists live or die by saving unprofitable post offices. Quite a few of the activists were mortified when the 50% tax rate was shelved; I would have resigned from the party if it had not been.
All parties have a disconnect between MPs, activists and voters… it is not just Labour.
23 - Just under 20%, but polls around that time had them as high as about 25% I think.
Isn’t the problem that they are not seen as a leftie party, but as Conservative-lite by Labour voters who *would* switch if there were a left-wing alternative?
I take Yellow Submarine’s point about the holidays, but if you are struggling for media coverage, why not take the summer as your time? There are few stories, esp political ones, to compete with - many people are on holiday for a couple of weeks, but how many of us take more than a month off in the summer? There is a big white media space begging to be filled. The Lib Dems should consider filling it.
23 - “I think the reason they have not done so is that they attack the popular Tories more than the hated Government and are now starting to be seen as a left, not a center, party.”
Yes and No. There is certainly too much of the attacking the Tories going on. But the party is probably further to the right than it has been for 20 years.
Sorry to go off thread but I thought some people might be interested in some TV news viewing figures which give an insight into low voter turnout amongst young people.
Last night’s audience for BBC1 News at 10pm was 4.5 million. Within that audience, the number of 16-34 year olds watching was just 550,000.
So just 12% of the audience were 16-34 year olds. I don’t know what proportion of the adult popoulation they make up (assume almost no Under 16s were watching), but it must be massively more than 12%.
Of course 16-34 year olds may be more likely to get their news from other sources (eg internet) but I suspect the reality is that the vast majority of this group are simply not interested.
26 - “There is a big white media space begging to be filled. The Lib Dems should consider filling it.”
I am sure that Cowley Street tries. Clegg speech last week about cutting taxes got very little coverage.
I do wonder how accurate an opinion poll can be when using the ‘certainty to vote’ filter rather than past vote weighting, when one main party is well ahead of the other. There has to be a demoralising effect on the trailing party’s supporters, who might previously have been a 10/10 but then declare themselves to be an 8/10. This may produce a multiplier effect on the size of the leads.
I’m not entirely sure about why the Lib Dems are dropping off. All I can think is that they’re not getting much coverage and that the Conservatives are picking up floating support from both other parties - in other words, while the Lib Dems are losing some voters to the Tories, they’re not replacing them with ex-Labour voters, who are choosing either to stay at home or cross straight to the Blue corner.
I have made a genuine suggestion as to how the Lib Dems can get some coverage with a spanking new Liberal Populist policy here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/23/6945/63608/769/555524
At the bottom is a poll on Glasgow East. Someone reckons it will go the Lib Dems - I reckon Mark Senior, but have no way of checking!
Glasgow: would Salmond really say the election was “a test of strength between two governments” if he didn’t think the SNP were the likely winners? I know he’s famous for being a gambler, but this seems a tad rash.
Not sure if it’s been mentioned before but Steve Richards has a fairly wide-ranging interview with Balls in today’s Indy.
He, Balls that is, thinks things are yet to get worse.
31- “At the bottom is a poll on Glasgow East. Someone reckons it will go the Lib Dems - I reckon Mark Senior, but have no way of checking!”
No, it was me. And I was not being serious.
28
I think you are absolutely right. I have two neices in that age group, they rarely listen to the News and neither has any interest in politics “cause its boring”,
26 Morus. It’s a pretty safe rule of thumb that the yellow peril track back in the polls between elections and pick up from enhanced media coverage as the GE looms.
The 05 election was notably different because the Lib Dems had maintained a significant media presence because of the Iraq war and thus the bounce was already factored in.
Traditionally the political/economic scene goes quieter over the summer, generally helping the incumbent party. This year I’m not so sure. There’s a series of potential pitfalls that could well keep the government (and its perceived failings) firmly fixed in the gaze of a pissed-off public.
The SATS results will still not be completed before the new school year in September (don’t under-estimate this one - parents of affected kids are absolutely livid - and very vocal); there’s Glasgow East; rumblings that interest rates may rise next month; inflation, house prices and the comparative devaluation of the holiday pound, and that’s without anything unforeseen cropping up.
Can’t really see the possibility of a summer’s respite, and that’ll continue to be reflected in the opinion polls.
All it needs is for Team GB to under-perform at the Olympics - there’s nothing like international sporting success to up the feel-good factor, but the opposite applies too - see Wilson’s comments in 1970. Not something I’d hope for myself, I hope we do well, but with Jonah Brown actually attending…. it brings intimations of doom. (See Guido passim)
25 If we were still looking at the 11-15 range, it would be pretty awful.
Eh??
32. The reports sounded like they were offhand comments. They might not have been planned to be so forthright. Could have been a long bit of speech: “Well obviously Labour are favourites… going to be very tough for us but it’s an interesting election.. in a way it’s a test of governments…”
After I had gained information from regulars at local pubs and returned home about the theft of my personal affects; I drank more alcohol (Special Brew) which looking at my posts included comments that were not acceptable and very strange. I was watching 48 hours on the TV (with Eddie Murphy) and can only assume in my incapacitated state used the same language / content as in the film and some how mixed fiction with reality. Interesting actually in that it just goes to show how information is processed in the unconscious state.
If it is any consolation I have had one hell of a hangover and am only starting to feel better now.
This poll is very interesting in that it shows the new political landscape could well have settled at between good Tory working Maj. and Massive Tory landslide if repeated at the next election.
The spread markets have not moved in response to this poll; nor did they move in response to the previous You Gov poll, which was rather more positive for Labour. My guess is that serious political punters are waiting for the outcome of the Glasgow East by-election. I’m also guessing, along with one or two other PB old hands (e.g. St John, to name but a few) that the Labour price is being sustained by the prospect of a possible change of Leader.
If I’m right, an SNP win could actually send Labour’s price in the market up.
37
At least Jonah is making an effort this time round, as far as I know hes only going to the CLOSING ceremony. its soooo Gordon…..
As a Tory I am obviously pleased by this latest poll putting us into the high 40s. However I dont think the Libdem figure is reliable.
Apart from my obvious interest in seeing Labour lose Glasgow East (fingers and toes crossed) to the SNP I will be almost as interested in the tussle between Libdem and Tory. Both have fought a good campaign and as I have said often Ian Robertson has in my opinion been thebest candidate.
If both Tories and Libdems hold their deposits and possibly increase vote share because of a very low poll then both campaigns will have been a big success. for one or other the icing on the cake will be coming in 3rd. Last time the Libdems were well ahead of the Tories so if there is a change around then I do believe the Scottish Libdems have a problem on their hands simply because they cannot blame the messenger, only the message.
Equally if the Tories dont improve then we have a problem to address.
Nationally, as the Libdem vote tends to be polarised both in Scotland and England, 15% nationally could hide much better results in various regions of England or areas of Scotland and Wales. Perhaps this is where the trend in council by-elections may be more relevant, especially those fought by all 3 (in England) or 4 (in Scotland and Wales) main parties.
36 Yes Jack. And they also had a slightly tired and emotional Leader.
40 Martin, glad you are ok, drink lots of water as you need to rehydrate, but dont overdo it!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7521137.stm.
25. Can you really see this Lib Dem tax cutters idea getting into the publics mind. For years they have been the party of higher taxes. That image takes some wearing off esp when no one’s really listening.
Another excellent polls for the Conservatives and a disaster for Labour - As we expect now.
26 I think the Lib Dems polled 22% at the 2005 election.
44 PtP. Not too sure anyone noticed the difference !! hic …
36 - Wouldn’t dispute that jack, but what are they doing about it?
I don’t think all unfavourable comparisons to the Lib Dem party led by Kennedy can be explained away by the Iraq War - those voters didn’t fall into the LD’s hands, they won them, with great media savvy and vigour. That’s what they are lacking now, and whilst I think it is strategically a mistake, announcing the tax policy at that time was a good media stroke.
Even if it was all about Iraq, there isn’t likely to be another war we fight in the Middle East soon, so they need a new plan. Not falling below 20% with aspirations of 23%-24% should be eminently possible in the current political climate, and yet still they re stuck in the mid-teens.
There are a lot of Lib Dem workers who are getting extremely frustrated with Nick Clegg and are mystified as to why he is not tacking to the left. If he falls to below 40 seats at the next election, I don’t see how he can survive.
McCain’s gaffes pile-up:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11939.html
Not significant on their own. But if the MSM picks it up, it becomes a meme,
If the economy REALLY goes t*ts up(something I reckon is seriously on the cards) Its not beyond the realms of possibility that the Tories could poll 50%.
As for the Lib Dems, a truly terrible poll. I cant understand why they are not taking some votes from Labour, or maybe they are , but more Lib Dems are leaking to the Tories..
40. Get yourself a punch-bag and whale the sh*t out of it twice daily while screaming obscenities at those you despise.
Doesn’t half make you feel better.
46 - “Can you really see this Lib Dem tax cutters idea getting into the publics mind.”
I really don’t know. There lies the challenge.
If Cameron actually implements LD policies , rather than just nicking and espousing them, I shan’t mind the Tories in government too much. If it is the role of the LDs to be a think tank for the other parties, so be it. I just hope Cameron is strong enough to avert the swivel-eyed loons who sit on his benches.
Martin - good to see you back here.
48 - You are right, Punter
For those interested, other than a (non-BPC) BPIX poll giving them 49%, this is the best result in this Parliament from any pollster except YouGov.
YouGov have given them 3 scores of 47% and one of 49%, which makes this the joint second-highest poll rating by any party in the last parliament.
I’m surprised to see the sudden focus on the Lib Dems’ position. They’ve been in a precarious polling state for many months. The most obvious thing to note is that Nick Clegg has so far done nothing for them at all. The good news for the Lib Dems is that the party’s Pollyannas are starting to lose ground to the worriers. If so, the real fightback might just start.
There’s an interesting poll on one of the Celtic websites with the question,
“If there was a General Election tomorrow how would you vote?”
Out of 215 voters the results up to the end of last week were
Labour 21%
SNP 65%
Tory 5%
LD 2%
Others 7%
Very unscientific of course and I would still have LAB as favs for Glasgow East but I’m amazed that the SNP price is still 3.4. Great value IMHO.
The LibDems head inexorably down to my projected 13% at the next GE….
The next GE is looking like a “Marmite” referendum on the Tories - love ‘em or hate ‘em? Only those who hate the Tories are going to stick with Labour. There is no other rational reason - certainly not the current performance of this Govt. and no positive agenda to put forward. SO - one question in 2010 - “Do you still hate the Tories enough to keep them out of power?” In that scenario, the LibDems get totally squeezed.
My twopenneth, anyway.
Looking at the detailed data tables the LibDems this poll seem to have been hit by the restriction on only counting those absolutely certain to vote , the actual poll figures being Con 44 Lab 28 LibDem 18 . Usually it is the Labour figure that goes down when only counting those with 10/10 certainty .
50 Morus. Broadly I look at ICM for the Lib Dem score, presently 19%, as they remind voters that the Lib Dems exist, the situaton we have at the GE. IMO with Labour struggling so badly the Lib Dems should be scoring several points higher - 22/23% and working toward 25/26% at the GE. They are underperforming presently but there is still time to reframe their political landscape and their tax proposals were a useful step in that direction.
Morus’ G. East poll http://tinyurl.com/5zfmth very strange: 25 votes cast: 17 SNP, 5 Labour, 1 dead heat and 2 Lib Dems (even I don’t think we will win this one!!)
As a media junkie what concerns me is the lack of coverage we are getting because of structural changes. The number of head to head lab/Con radio interviews where even a year ago it would be automatically the big three. Look at the derisory coverage that “Make it Happen” got.
Morus is right that the summer provides an enormous oppertunity but doesn’t the Green party put out press releases? If the media have decided that you aren’t relavent or interesting.
I don’t believe that the party is on 15% but the igh teens seems very low to me when the government is in the state that it is in.
62 - so who is the second one to vote LD? Has Mr Senior been there?
2
As a LD I cannot spin my way out of this one.
by SBS July 23rd, 2008 at 12:02 pm
60
Looking at the detailed data tables the LibDems this poll seem to have been hit by the restriction on only counting those absolutely certain to vote , the actual poll figures being Con 44 Lab 28 LibDem 18 . Usually it is the Labour figure that goes down when only counting those with 10/10 certainty .
by Mark Senior July 23rd, 2008 at 1:00 pm
SBS - Must try harder see what Mark has done - have a gold star Mark!!!
45. 53 and 55. Thanks!
Morus,
I see that so far only 4 PBers expect Labour to hold Glasgow East and 17 expect the SNP to win and oh yes SBS has been joined by another hardy soul
30: Another entertaining blog post by Morus in the link. A small point is that it’s a bit of a myth that the Germans don’t have spped cameras on motorways - they have been introducing them steadily over the years and there are only relatively short stretches with no limits. There is a driving maniac lobby opposed to all limits (”Free speed for free Germans!” is the slogan) but they’re on a loser.
65
The spin is almost as good as Nick Palmers…
67 Easterross. Will the Glasgow East blue rinse Colonels save the Tory deposit ??
I have been stopped by a speed camera on a German Autobahn - and also got an on the spot fine for having no GB sticker. What made me cross was that I was one of the few UK cars with a Euro number plate with GB in the ring of stars.
Previous thread: SBS, in 1976, I got arrested for six hours trying to go from East Germany back into West Germany….glad that experience is no longer available to repeat!
60 Dangerous to speculate on the basis of one poll of course, but I just wonder if that impies that the repeated “tory sleaze” stories are firming up the Labour vote?
Stagflation in Britain: Things can only get worse:
http://www.economist.com/world/britain/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=11750900
Mike, I have just reread the thread, and if Mori dont apply political weighting, where would the poll be if they did(if its possible to estimate same)
64 My vote went to Labour by 2,000 + votes
65 Thanks Icarus but the detailed data is even stranger , in the previous poll 117 LibDem voters ended up with a figure of 16% , this month from a similar sample size 150 LibDem voters ended up with a figure of 15% .
Cleggs satisfaction ratings this month at + 9 are also at a record high with Mori .
I could not vote - it just showed results. I vote Labour between 2 and 5k majority.
The 2005 GE was a great opportunity for the Lib Dems to win disaffected left-wing protest votes, with Iraq, student fees etc. the perfect issues for this period. But notably the Lib Dems started to lose ground to the Tories, with their tax policies being one cause of this.
At the next GE, there look to be a lot of Labour votes to pitch for, but it is not clear what the issues are that will attract disaffected Labour voters to the Lib Dem tent.
Civil liberties may get a handful of leftish ‘intellectual’ votes, but don’t the look the basis for a mass shift of support.
Probably the economy is the main issue that will interest voters, but here there is a problem for the Lib Dems - if you want a change of economic management, why vote for a party that has no chance of winning the election?
Why take much notice, even, or its policies in this area - especially if they appear to be being framed to compete not with the government, but with the main opposition party?
75 You cannot tell because they did not ask how people voted in 2005 .
I too would like an LD thread sometime in the future, they seem to have hit a bit of a brick wall.
Morus, I like your article but I think you need to explain the difference between British populism, things the tabloids like, and American populism, a synonym for socialism/protectionism.
Those interested in Glasgow East, a right shushtie going on about Labour supporting newspapers not reporting on the David Marshall affair. The Herald not allowing comments under the title Marshall airbrushed from Campaign, comments have carried on under another title 704 up till now, most anti Labour.Posters are doing a Guido
and trying to find out, where the smell in coming from.
David Marshall`s daughter registered two property company`s in March, also from their home address, suggestings also, that Christina Marshall is the same person who was allegedly involved in a fundraising function where £11,000 went missing.
David Marshall has not spoken in parliment for a year also why two doctors were needed to sign him off sick
Mar Gar Rat Cur Ran worried as she will be blamed for bringing Gorgon down It`s hotting up lovely
The LD spinners must be getting very very giddy. Face it ur well shafted and goin down almost as far as NuLab!!
As this seems to have turned into a LD thread lets consider the following senario. Assume we are heading for another landslide change of Government like 1997. lets consider 4 factors now and then
1. How many Second places against Labour does the party have compared to against the Conservatives in 1997?
2. how many of these are marginal ?
3. How many seats were the LD defending against Labour in 1997 compared to the Conservaives in 2010?
4. where is the party’s industrial mass. ( Paid staff, members, money etc)
The answers it seems to me are 1. less 2. less. 3. massively more 4. in entirely the wrong place
The party’s vote share declined in both the GE’s Ashdown fought. he managed to more than double the party’s representation. however the strategic situation was vstly different.
I echo the recommendation yesterday of using Norfolk Blogger’s article to head up a Lib Dem discussion.
One poster said that there is a seasonal factor to the LD polls and certainly there are signs that in the April/May period they tend to edge up and then fall away.
However if Mori polls with Clegg are compared with the same month’s previous poll with Ming, Ming was ahead an average of 1.5 points compared to Clegg. If this continues we could see Clegg dropping to 11 points.
81. He he - mad thread on the herald website…
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2406657.0.All_pitching_in_for_eastend_patriotism.php
Astonishing to see the Tory share go UP during the summer holidays.
The Tories would surely have been on 50% if this poll had been taken a week or two ago…
80. Economic and social populism exist in both countries.
What is the view on 3rd place 2morrow in GE?
88. Tories on about 10%/2000 votes, I reckon.
re 84. I think that that is a good idea. Maybe later today.
87. It means something a bit different in the US due to these fellows:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populist_Party
“The party’s platform, commonly known as the Omaha Platform, called for the abolition of national banks, a graduated income tax, direct election of Senators, civil service reform, a working day of eight hours and Government control of all railroads, telegraphs, and telephones.”
Nationalisation and progressive taxation, in other words.
83 1 + 2 21 of the top 50 Lib Dem target seats are Labour held. 2. You would probably know better than I do, but my guess is that members are not in the right place to take Labour seats (partly because this is true of all parties) but that resources are mostly going in this direction. (I haven’t had the Chris Rennard letter asking me to move house yet.)
Sarah Teather is fighting a seat that requires a much bigger swing from Labour - and I wouldn’t write of her chances.
60 Dangerous to speculate on the basis of one poll of course, but I just wonder if that impies that the repeated “tory sleaze” stories are firming up the Labour vote?
re 75. Mark Senior is correct - as on this occasion they haven’t asked the question we do not know.
Ipsos-MORI remains firmly opposed to past vote weighting. In a sense their new process for dealing with public sector workers might be having the same effect.
It’s also important to note that in the past their most pro-Labour polls, where they were most out of line, were the ones conducted face to face. Now all their voting intention surveys will be done on the phone.
I am impressed by the firm’s response to the London Mayoral race polling. They recognised things were not quite right, had a good look, and then came up with some changes.
91. The current incarnation is led by Ralph Nader.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Populist_Party_of_Maryland
81 & 85
Amusing thread. I particularly liked the following comment.
“The Labour canvassers (few in number) trudge glumly around, each under his own little raincloud. Who’d vote for that?”
I am absolutely gobsmacked by Labour’s price holding up on betfair for Glasgow East.
Damn and drat- if I hadn’t been so hasty initially I would lay them for 100 at least at these prices. I think this is the best value bet you guys are goin to get on politics all year.
40…when i used to drink for England there was nothing nicer than getting truly brainboxed on the demon SB.
96…go and do it man! ask Al and Gordo for the cash.
90. For some reason the BBC is saying that the Tories may well surplant the LD’s in Glasgow East. They say the LD’s have a higher base but the Tories seem to have moment and may overtake them.
I have noticed in recent days even the BBC acknologing that the Tories are likely to be the government after the election. One presenter even presented in those terms and used the present opinion polls as a benchmark. I must say i cannot see Labour swinging back after such a sustained deteration in polling numbers since 2005. Not even another change of leader will save them, when compared to Callaghan - Brown has a major flaw in that he is a drag on Labour seats. Where as Callaghan probably saved 30-50 seats in 1979 Brown will probably do the reverse!
91. Perhaps the most interesting part of their platform was their strong opposition to the gold standard - they wanted instead an unlimited issue of currency in order to bolster land prices.
This and their attacks on bankers, railroads, and others all grew out of the agricultural depression in the 1870s. It can be seen as a giant cry for help from the small man who felt crushed by powerful outside interests. The final policy platform resembles a traditional socialist one in many respects, but the roots are very different.
95- henryH- my take of Glasgow East is that desperate Labour have faced an ever confident SNP. Labour are a bit like the Russkies at Stalingrad- hanging on to grim death under a faint glimmer of hope.
I think though the outcome will be different, and Labour will be breached at Glasgow East, and the leadership will quickly topple. Losing Glasgow tomorrow which I am now convinced will happen will lead Labour MP’s into a panic. The endgame for Gordon is now in play.
97. Yes, SB is very potent! I bought it by accident as i thought it was just that type of normal beer.
Meanwhile, the great badger debate continues:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7519801.stm
Hello everyone. Hooray for the Tories. That’s a damn good poll considering it’s high summer and all rich, successful, sexy, ambitious, charming, attractive people (i.e. all rightwingers) are obviously out of the country having a nice holiday in, say, Sicily.
Well done Cammo. Now the Tories have got poor sad people voting for them as well. Good work.
Coupla points:
1. I just broke into notorious Satanist Aleister Crowley’s old house in Cefalu - the notorious “abbey of Thelema”. It’s a derelict old ruin now, hidden away in the hills, walled off and noisome - but I boldly jumped through a window and found walls daubed with Crowley’s own diabolic “sex magic” murals.
2. Then I got scared and fled.
3. Last night I was wandering in the most impoverished part of Palermo, the Mafia-infested slum of La Kalsa, and I found a road called “via Nicolo Palmer”. Has the member for Broxtowe got “friends in the South”?
4. Re the Czech-German border thing. That is indeed a weird place. I wrote about it here:
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/8485,features,cheb-city-of-gnomes-and-hookers
5. Ciao.
The LDs should have repositioned themselves clearly left but for some reason panicked at the thought and returned to trying to be all things to all people and not lose their appeal to their left or right leaning actual and potential support. A mistake that in a few years time may be seen to have been a blunder of historic proportions. They’ve compounded this error by replacing a genuinely popular leader in Kennedy a politician who came over as normal/one of us, replacing him with someone who came across as a Tory wet/duffer, then a charisma-bypass renta-Etonian.
88 - Since the Lib Dems finished 3rd in 2005 and by all accounts have a strong candidate, they should finish 3rd again.
104 - oh yes, I forgot the gnomes.
105 - we’ve been through it before.. CK had to go before he collapsed at a press conference or threw up during a conference speech or something. Too many near misses.
106. antifrank
Since the Scottish Lib Dems finished 4th in 2007 and by all accounts their vote is as soft as mush, they should finish 4th again, or worse…
101. Yes, if Glasgow East goes - the media narrotive will shift to Brown having to go. This in turn will induce the PLP to plot and plan a rebellion and a revoval. Interestingly, I should imagine that if it happened it would be very quick indeed: Otherwise it may peter out. Somebody, I think it was Gabble said don’t underestimate Brown in how he manages the PLP. Maybe this is Brown’s only strength and ironically for Labour is the worst possible quality Brown could have. He is completly useless at being PM, media coverage, new agenda but manages to co-erce the Labour party into keeping him through low politics and cunning.
109 - I’m intrigued that you’re more willing to make a prediction about the Lib Dems than about the main event. Surely predicting results lower down the card is harder?
101 tyson
Well I think the SNP will win. Though I have not backed them by as much as I had intended when the election was announced. Due to the fact that I have some doubts and the odds have improved so the potential profit is the same.
One of those bets where either result leaves me slightly disatisfied. If wrong ( why did I not listen to my doubts) if right (what a fool for cutting back my stake).
Oh well. Roll on tomorrow night.
On about 250 quid for the SNP (to win 850ish). Suspect Labour will sneak it, as their majority is so huge, but value obviously with the SNP. Just one bad news story for Labour at the wrong moment and it could tip away from them.
I hate being number 111, so please someone post before this gets in.
110-Martin- Gordon has has been given some respite by the economic doom (perversely) but Glasgow East will throw the spotlight on Gordo’s leadership, and he has run out of cards to play.
111- antifrank- tough luck old boy. You inhabited number 111 today. I hope you are not engaging in any dangerous sports this afternoon.
111. antifrank
Not at all. I feel quite confident in predicting that the Scottish Tories will do relatively well tommorrow, and the Scottish Lib Dems will perform relatively poorly. It does not take a genius! Just look at the opinion polling over the last 12 months.
Equally, I feel quite confident in predicting that the Scottish National Party will do relatively well tommorrow, and the British Labour Party (North Britain Parish Branch) will perform relatively poorly. It does not take a genius! Just look at the opinion polling over the last 12 months.
Labour price now being held up by a big £2.3k wad @ 1.44 - once that goes - who knows…
Glad to see Stuart has arrived. Stuart what’s the latest? BBC Scotland at lunchtime going on Margaret Curran not taking the blame if Labour lose. the fact the BBC for the 3rd day ina row talking about the possibility of Labour losing must strike fear into the hearts of every serious Labour supporter in Scotland.
Seeing Margaret Curran being accompanied by a piper on the lunchtime news surrounded by Labour luvvies just seemed totally false. However John Mason speaking to 2 wee wifies at a bus stop much better. Of course we had the obligatory showing of Annabel but this time she had the candidate with her, a breakthrough from the BBC. they even let Davena speak. Ian Robertson coming out of the City chambers having handed in his petition also looked confident and does speak well.
Just for the record the Libdems were ahead of the Tories in 2005 by 3665 to 2135 so almost 100%. If the Tories do beat the Libdems tomorrow that would be a major upset.
tomorrow with one ‘m’ even…
O/T Matthew Croucher G.C. - one of our very best.
120 Oops, forgot to include the link:
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/pressass/20080723/tuk-extraordinary-hero-s-george-cross-6323e80.html
115 - What is the problem with being 111? I never undertake any dangerous sports. Should I be careful handling hot drinks?
116 - Talk about ducking the difficult questions! Do you think the SNP are going to win tomorrow or not? It’s been fair enough to avoid the question till now, but you must surely be capable of expressing a view on that today if you can express a view on the Tories beating the Lib Dems.
118. I’m only popping in for a minute. L’Alpe d’Huez is on Eurosport and some things just take priority!
Just quickly though:
- “BBC Scotland at lunchtime going on Margaret Curran not taking the blame if Labour lose.”
Quite right too. Curran has (almost?) saved Labour’s bacon at this by-election. Anyone but her would have probably been toast by now. She is an indication of the future for Scottish Labour. Gordon Brown is a zombie from Scottish Labour past.
- Tyson, thank you for your kind words yesterday. I will maybe respond this evening. No guarantees though. Same to stjohn.
122 - I expect the Tories to beat the LDs.
I predict a “political earthquake” in Glasgow East this week.It is a wonderful phrase coined by Alex Salmond
Thsi from “The Scotsman”
Glasgow East: High risk for Salmond as he fronts bid to trigger ‘earthquake’
Published Date: 23 July 2008
By ROSS LYDALL
ALEX Salmond raised the stakes in the crucial Glasgow East by-election yesterday, placing himself at the helm of the SNP charge and declaring it a referendum on the popularity of the Westminster and Holyrood governments.
The First Minister moved to take tomorrow’s knife-edge election beyond local concerns and invited voters to cast their ballots based on the SNP’s first year in power in Edinburgh and the 11 years of New Labour in London.
By doing so, he pitched himself into a head-to-head contest with Gordon Brown, the Prime Minister, challenging voters to look not at the by-election candidates but at the performances of the two political heavyweights.
125: It gives the impression of Salmond being ballsy, but it’s surely win/win for him. Even a loss by 1000 votes would be a massive triumph, given the yawning chasm between the parties at the last election.
G, Ralph Nader is certainly not considered a populist by most Americans, even if he tries to claim the term. The best example of US populism in Lou Dobbs. It certainly claims things like huge taxes on the rich and corporations, but it also supports complete bans on immigration, the right to carry guns, English language-only rules and a general anti-integration vibe.
O/T
http://www.almr.org.uk/presspdfs/69.pdf
Interesting press release considering the statements released about cheap alcohol this week.
Last year, the House of Commons Refreshment Department received a subsidy of £5.5million, an increase of 15%.
Has anyone heard of this pollster?
politics.co.uk
The Scottish National Party welcomed the publication of a politics.co.uk poll released today, which shows that only 46% of people believe that Labour can win the Glasgow East by-election, while 51% said the SNP would govern Glasgow East better than Labour and only 24% disagreed.
In addition, 54% said that Alex Salmond has been good at him job as First Minister, with only 19% saying the opposite.
SNP Westminster leader Mr Angus Robertson MP said:
“This is an excellent eve of poll election boost for John Mason and the SNP.
“The results are fantastic – and they show that we are witnessing a tale of two governments. The SNP Government under Alex Salmond is demonstrating competence, credibility and success, while Gordon Brown’s administration dithers its way from crisis to crisis, and does nothing in the face of rising fuel and food prices.
“Above all, these figures show that the SNP are on the people’s side, and Labour are out of touch. That is why I believe the people will be on the SNP’s side in Glasgow East, and why the tale of two governments – SNP success and Labour failure – can take John Mason and the SNP over the winning line.”
123- look out later stuart for your prediction.
127. Perhaps, but if you read the comments on Morus’ Diary there does seem to be a bit of ambiguity.
For example, the first comment says that economic populism is based on the “common good”. Someone else cites John Edwards and another mentions Ralph Nader and Huey Long.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huey_Long#Share_Our_Wealth
126. Though this is the first time ever there has been a by-election when the SNP have been leading over Labour in the Scottish opinion polls.
PB poll on Glasgow East
Following the lead from Morus I’ve put up an online poll on what we think will happen tomorrow?
Let’s see what the PB community thinks
131. Because it’s a very left-wing website and he’s talking about “liberalism” (in the US liberal social democracy). Everyone tries to claim populism for themselves. The same thing on the National Review would come out with their side of populism.
Just completed a YouGov Political survey. Closes Monday 28th so presume results out Friday August 1 in The D Telegraph
**** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD
Pick your own ARSE and name the winner of Glasgow East !!
Tories 20 points clear! Bad news for the country I’m afraid. I know Gordon’s useless, I was saying so a year ago, but let’s try and work out what a Tory Government will mean. Cameron wants:
1) More order and discipline in schools. The feckless young must fear punishment.
2) A more competitive economy. Never mind our terrible levels of productivity, manufacturing and skilled employment; as long as only the fittest survive and everyone knows it we’ll start making more money.
3) Rigid conformity. Notice how there is nothing ‘unconventional’ about David Cameron. A bit of smoking at Eton and a member of the Bullingdon (pretty standard rebellion) top job at Carlton, married at 30 etc. Now it might all be coincidence, but has he ever done anything out of the ordinary or does he just always follow the crowd?
4) Marriage. Following on from 3, the Tories are making a big point about marriage. Which would be okay if their idea of commitment didn’t revolve around the concept of personal sacrifice. I’m not convinced they believe the policy will make any real difference but it’s a sneaky way to give more (broadly speaking) privileged people a tax break.
5) And this is the really big problem I have. Cameron talks of a broken society and yet he’s only prepared to attack the lifestyles of the underclass - those who are least likely to vote, have the fewest friends in the media and business. I don’t think he could care less about the middle class married couple with the coke habit, but when it’s people on council estates he’s going to get tough. He doesn’t believe they are part of the same problem (if middle class drug users are a problem at all). He can ridicule Brown for a lack of courage all he likes but he’s only prepared to take on easy targets himself.
Just to finish I’m sure some people will be angered by my personal attacks on Cameron, but the fact is he wants a very important job and politicians have to face rigourous criticism. If it sometimes sounds snide, so be it.
84. the final collapse of Mings polling numbers came after the Brown bounce sucked all the publiciy away. While there is an element of that with the Tories at the moment they aren’t “new”.
I expect the LD’s to come 4th tommorrow. No Iraq war, salmond hs stolen thre teitory, little external help, clasic tird party squeeze, excution of two scottish federal leaders in two years.
Also look to the failure of the tory vote to get squeezed in Sedgefield and ealing.
Frank booth you can attack Cameron as much as you like but it will have no effect if it is based on your suppositions of ‘what he really thinks’.
A weird post from Frank Booth. Surely, we all want discipline in schools.
137. Why would anyone be angered by that..it is after all your spin on what you think Cmaeron wants or will do and has little relation to what the reality of the situation will be.
We have had too much lefty attempts at social engineering and far too much money wasted on unreforemd public services. Plus we have an increasingly jaded yet authoritarian regime and desperate regime.
Finally, noone is listening to them anyway and weak government is bad government.
a Cameron government will rectify many of these problems as Blair’s rectified many of Major’s.
Getting rid of Brown is all upside..
[36] - “It’s a pretty safe rule of thumb that the yellow peril track back in the polls between elections and pick up from enhanced media coverage as the GE looms.”
Sorry, Jack, but where’s the beef? I’m looking at a historical graph of ICM polls - back to 1988 - and I just don’t really see it.
The 1992 GE might fit this, but it’s hard to tell, because it lies in the middle of strongly strengthening support for the Lib Dems from 1990-1994, which presumably happened as the party got its act together after the merger, and sank its teeth into the then struggling Tory government.
1997 just does not fit. The Lib Dems do better than in a few polls at the beginning of 1997, but generally the party is on a slide, so it does worse than it had been polling for most of the 1992-1997 Parliament, despite the long 1997 general election campaign at the end of the 5-year Parliament.
2001 fits a little - the Lib Dems do better in the election than in polls during 1997-2001, but not by much,
2005 doesn’t really fit. The Lib Dems do out perform their 12-month rolling average poll score, but only by about 1%, and this only equals their high point (in a 12-month rolling average) in 2003.
The Lib Dems have been in decline ever since
[142] [oopa] The Lib Dems have been in decline ever since Cameron was elected, though this seems to have stalled now that Brown is in such deep trouble.
They should be doing much better. Votes don’t directly turn into seats though. The Lib Dems lost vote share between 1992 and 1997, but gained seats.
Since this thread (which was supposed to be about a MORI poll), but has degenerated into Lib-Dem futures; let me say this: I believe that the LD’s will now be squeezed into near oblivion in the next 5 years. Will only get 19-20 seats in the next election, and the BNP will rise as the third party by 2015. Any takers?