Will the polls make a defeat even harder for Labour?
July 23rd, 2008
What have the double digit leads done for expectation management?
One of the main tasks for party spinners ahead of any election these days is to down-play your chances on the Thursday. For a failure to achieve an outcome that has been widely expected is much much worse than if everybody thinks that the party was going to go down anyway.
Given the precarious position of Labour and Mr. Brown nationally the Glasgow East aftermath is going to be much harder because of the two polls showing Labour victories by 14% and 17%. These have driven the widespread assumption, seen in the betting, that Labour is going to hold on.
So if Margaret Curran is defeated in the early hours of Friday morning then it’s going to have a bigger impact than at, say, Crewe & Nantwich, where just about everybody expected Labour’s Tasmin Dunwoody to lose.
The early information on postal voting suggests that turnout might not be as low as has been predicted. By yesterday the number received back was 2,690 of the 3,913 that were sent out. This will rise by tomorrow and points to a great interest in the election.
My view is that the bigger the turnout the better it is for the SNP and that Labour’s chances are now approaching evens.
The big question is what Tory and Lib Dem supporters will do? Will they join the anti-Labour bandwagon by supporting the party most able to hurt Brown and his government or will they stick with their allegiance? My guess is that there will be a big third and fourth party squeeze.
By-election betting - live latest prices
Mike Smithson
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I’ve been wondering if there’s any possibility that John Mason might have a much bigger victory than just a marginal one? Could he get a landslide like David Alton or Simon Hughes did in their by-elections? What were the opinion polls like 2 or 3 days before the by-elections in Bermondsey and Edge Hill?
Surely the loss of Glasgow East, if it occurs, spells the end of Brown. If these kind of sage seats are vulnerable, Scotland will soon be a Labour free zone. How low do Labour wish to descend? They won’t even have 100 MPs at the next General Election at this rate. Surely a sense of self-preservation will kick in?
safe!
2. No it won’t be the end of Brown - they are not desperate enough to think that Hazel Millipede or Harriet Balls would be any more popular.
Brown will be safe (unless he falls on his sword) because it is plain to everyone it is the economy. More importantly for any rival to Brown, it will still be the economy under the new leader.
Ironically, it is when things start to improve that Brown will become vulnerable again as challengers see a chance of winning.
I disagree. People know that the economic problems are not only located in Britain. They do however see an incompetent government which is unable to cope with managing the situation.
O/T US Elections
from 538:
“For the first time since shortly after clinching the Democratic nomination, we now have Barack Obama as less than a 60 percent favorite to win the election. Our simulations presently project Obama to win the election 58.4 percent of the time, with McCain winning the remaining 41.6 percent.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/07/todays-polls-722.html
If the Conservatives in the seat have any sense they will vote Blue. Brown is the best asset the party has.
Sorry to go off-topic so early, but how can anyone vote for Obama if they don’t know what he means? It sounds like he doesn’t know either. He’s only just reaffirmed his ’strategy’ to withdraw troops in 16 months despite the fact that the situation has completely changed since he formed the policy; now he comes out with this:
“Couric: Having said that, if General Petraeus or the chairman of the joint chiefs, Admiral Mullen, say to you, “Hey, President Obama …”
Obama: Right.
Couric: …if that comes to pass, “you cannot take out the final complement of combat troops. You need them in the theater,” you would say?
Obama: I will always listen to the commanders on the ground. And I will make an assessment based on the facts at that time.”
????!!!!! What’s your policy!!!!!????? It looks like he’s tried to bat away charges of flip-flopping by sticking to a stupid line - that even if he had known the surge would work he wouldn’t have supported it. This way he can say his judgement was right all along, because his decision was based on higher, secret, difficut to explain reasoning, not on the question of whether the surge would work. This was bad enough. Now he’s flopped back again! He doesn’t know what he’s doing. I wouldn’t want him running my parish council.
This article in “The Scotsman” has made my mind up.
The family silver will be piled on the SNP to be victorious in Glasgow East
Glasgow East by-election: Labour is accused of scoring own goal over benefits
A CLEAR division has opened between Labour and the SNP over plans to radically reform the welfare system and encourage thousands of people back into work.
Campaigning in Glasgow East, the constituency with the highest number of people on benefits in the UK, the Labour candidate Margaret Curran is standing by the government’s strong-arm approach – but her SNP rival, John Mason, believes Labour has scored an own goal only days before Thursday’s crucial ballot.
Labour’s concern was further increased when it appeared likely that Glasgow would be one of the first areas to pilot the reforms.
It is interesting to see the Conservative strategy here. With no chance of coming second and no expectations of even bettering the 4th we had last time the fact that Cameron and virtually the whole top table of Tories have turned out is very interesting.
It says to me that he is very keen to say ‘there is nowhere we won’t *try* to win support and nowhere in the UK where we don’t deserve to recieve some.’
This is an interesting contrast to Labour in the run up to 1997 where in swathes of Southern England they delegated to the Lib Dems the task of turning the Conservative incumbents out.
What will the impact be in Glasgow East? Will Tories there back Cameron or as Mike suggests go for the party most likely to cost Labour the seat - the SNP?
Don’t know, I really cannot guess - but Cameron deserves a lot of credit in my view for taking this on so boldly and for not being afraid of being seen to have worked hard for what will probably be little return.
2,3 If they turf out Labour, they will indeed deserve the title “sage seats”!
I wouldn’t read anything into those postal votes Mike. In my experience 65-75% of postal ballots are returned in normal local elections, even for wards where the overall turnout barely scrapes past 20%.
It’s also a miniscule number. Here in Salford around 20% of the total electorate are registered postal voters and in my ward of 8000 electors, 2000 have postal ballots.
Finally, most postal voters send their ballots back soon after receiving them. Sure the figure you quote will rise by close of play on Thursday but I wouldn’t expect it to rise by much.
1 JohnLoony, Labour finally chose a well known candidate with local connections, not perfect because she does not live there. The Labour candidate ended the risk of a loss by a landslide.
That said I still rate it as 50/50 between the 2 parties. The question for me is how well are the SNP communicating the welfare changes?
Regarding the shock element of a Labour loss, certainly most of the media is expecting a Labour win. If they do win then the chances of Brown surviving into 2009 will be increased.
A loss gives the Labour MPs 70 days away to think about it.
The Guardian’s Tristram Hunt, with some interesting thoughts on the by-election.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/23/glasgoweast.labour
10
Marcus, why don’t you volunteer, ‘Torbay’ as the pilot area for the welfare reforms, that would do your career prospects no-end of good!
“Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right; here I am, stuck in the middle with you….”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7520401.stm
O/T A police officer has been transferred from duties at a Channel crossing after a disabled child and his parents were detained under the Terrorism Act.
http://tinyurl.com/6o6ymf
Not mentioned in the headline but the child is described as mixed race.
Insp Helen Shaw, from Kent Police’s Frontier Operations, apologised to the family in a letter.
“I wish to reassure you that your highly unsatisfactory experience was a very isolated incident.”
If only that were so.
Tory voters in these seats tend to even more elderly and unionist. Some of them may switch their vote but to Labour to try to stop the Nats. Most Tory voters in Scotland have a reasonably postive view of Salmond at the moment. But they cerainly dont want independence. They will be open to a save the union message from Labour. I remember in the 1999 Scottish parliament elections many Tory voters voted Labour for this reason. However, that was in the early years of the Labour Government and it could be that a once in lifetime chance to defeat Labour is just too tempting when there is no real threat to the union. We’ll see on Friday.
12 I’d have thought the opposite while an SNP win could just seal the deal for Gordon, a Labour win would give him no boost having already been anticipated. More attention and pressure would focus on the swing against.
Defeat is always harder when it’s unexpected. You can take being beaten by Manchester United when your first choice goalkeeper is injured. You feel gutted if you lose a fixture you were expected to win.
Labour will hold on here but given how close it will be, that won’t be the end of the leadership speculation. A seat like Glasgow East should be a walk in the park: the fact is has not been is the measure of the man.
The other battle here will be for deposit saving; the Tories lose their deposit, say, and Cameron would have to try to deny claims that the party is lost north of the border. Nick Clegg would be slapped pretty hard if the LibDem machine is shown to be broken for three consecutive by-elections.
On the face of it, not a thrilling election at all, but the consequences for all three parties are very important.
16
What I would like to know is why, if they suspected the parents of child trafficking, they detained them under the Terrorism Act?
I hadn’t realised that trafficking childreen - bad as it is - was classed as Terrorism.
21 - Well I hate to suggest it but you can detain people for longer if you accuse them of terrorism.
Off topic, I’m adjusting to the new online look of the Telegraph. It’s much easier to find your way around now, though I’m not yet used to its look.
12. Yes, most postal votes come back within a day or two of the earliest they can be returned, in my experience. Voters tend to deal with them straight away or not at all. And you’re right about the numbers - they seem very small for an entire constituency.
On the main question, I don’t think many people have noticed the polls for Glasgow East, so of themselves they wouldn’t make much difference. Defeat - if it comes - will still be extremely hard to take simply because of how safe the seat was previously. That will be the story. Had the polls pointed to an SNP win, there would probably have been more coverage of them.
21. Correct. Anyone wavering on the 42 day detention issue should consider the case (and also the Walter Wolfgang one). Ministerial assurances about what the intentions are about when an Act will be used are meaningless; if you give the police the power to do something, they will use it.
Any news on who is leading on postal votes?
Any evidence of Curran / Curran confusion in the postals?
Morning all, here is the posting I put on the last thread last night:
IF anyone is still awake BBC Scotland Newsnight has just given an update on Glasgow East.
Prediction of turnout is now 30%. John Curtice understands 70% of the postal votes have been returned.
BBC Scotland have been sounding out leading Labour figures. They are very worried. Firstly they are worried a great many of their people will not vote. Secondly they are worried all the other parties arepicking up sections of their vote but especially the SNP are picking up by far the most.
Some Labour people are worried the SNP could win by 500.
by Easterross July 22nd, 2008 at 11:17 pm
This morning BBC Scotland was again banging on about low turnouts, no voters in evidence and the possibility of the SNP sneaking it. To me that is Scottish Labour’s mouthpiece telling their people they cannot be complacent.
Mike I am sorry to disagree with you but the lower the turnout the better chance for the SNP. Labour voters are by far the least committed in Scotland and we always hoped on election days there would be a football match on TV in the evening or that it would start to rain around 4pm etc etc. The smaller the turnout the lower the swing the SNP requires as its voters are far more determined to vote and this time they have something to vote for.
It seems from last night’s coverage that Labour is seeping votes to all 3 major opponents and that the few voters still at home are listening.
The greater Labour’s panic is evident today the more likely tomorrow will produce the “earthquake” Alex Salmond was talking about.
Diehard Tories and Libdems will never vote SNP. they will stay at home if they don’t vote.
I was the last person out with the Labour party to beat the SNP in any part of Glasgow East and that was in 1987.
I didn’t see the STV debate last night. If Bernard Ponsonby STV’s political editor was involved then it would have been aimed at helping Margaret Curran. He was a Labour party hack before joining STV and at Easter he told me Gordon Brown would win a general election at any time of his choosing!!
24 “Had the polls pointed to an SNP win, there would probably have been more coverage of them.” Not in the Scottish press read by the voters of Glasgow East. There seem to be two consequences of this by-election so far:
a) the Scottish press has had to recognise that it needs to be less pro-Labour; some of the recent articles just would not have been published three weeks ago. BBC of course is a different matter.
b) Labour will have to fight every single seat; taking seats for granted won’t work. This is going to be demanding and expensive.
The Polish plumber at Guido has suggested that Brown’s visit to Israel was Labour party fundraising. If so, maybe they can afford an election. If not, they have a fairly terminal problem (when combined with the number of experienced people retiring etc.).
Good Morning Campers !!
The ARSE will be releasing the result of the Glasgow East by-election this evening.
Who’ll be on top ??? … the Tartan Tories, the actual Tories, or the NuLab Tories.
One teaser for you …. the Lib Dems will not be winning here !! … more likely losing their deposit here !!
28. Easterross, as usual, you have not been doing your homework.
“If Bernard Ponsonby STV’s political editor was involved … . He was a Labour party hack before joining STV …”
That would be the same Bernard Ponsonby who was Lib Dem candidate in the Govan by-election in 1988?
28: Bernard Ponsonby of STV was a Lib Dem candidate in another by election in Glasgow - not a Labour party hack!
I’ve been out knocking in leaflets the last couple of days and a huge number of people are on holiday. A delibarate Labour ploy to disenfranchise the electorate. I really hope it backfires on them as it is disgraceful that they chose to hold this byelection during the Glasgow Fair.
Today programme - “Labour believes they are home and dry in Glasgow East.”
35: I think that was based on the quality of the candidates rather than anything else.
Has your ARSE been repaired since Henley, Jack?
Easterross I have to credit Nick Palmer’s report that his colleagues’ views have moved from knife edge win to solid win.
Nick reports facts quite fairly. Presumably this comes from people familiar with the Labour canvassing returns.
Will the ever fragrant Nuala be backing Obama ??? … the nation needs to know !!!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/conservative/2445951/Tory-MPs-abandon-Republicans-to-back-Barack-Obama.html
35. If the same line is said on Radio Scotland, then it might have an impact on Labour turnout? Is this sort of thing known to have an influence on likelihood to vote?
37 Jack’s Arse heard the Today programme and will announce… a comfortable Labour win
Good 35. It will make their defeat even more enjoyable and prove Mike’s point.
I think the LibDem vote will be squeezed but not the Tory one. Tory voters in a place like Glasgow East must be quite tribal, and happy to endorse Cameron. LibDem voters are mostly protest voters and not at all tribal.
37 Icarus. Kind of you to arske. The resplendent ARSE is in excellent shape after that nasty bout of Borisitis !!
test “Tory voters in a place like Glasgow East” - What both of them?
I’m not sure the Today programme is the best judge of matters Scottish. I’m the only listening north of the border.
41 test. You’ll just have to wait. No private viewings, even for “Friends of the ARSE”.
ops I mean listener
Well, of course - as Mike says, the expectations game is always played. But as Mike agreed the other day, the recess means that it’s not going to have much impact on Labour MPs’ mood with any plausible result - lots of them are already away somewhere, and everyone’s taken on board that although we think we’ll win we might lose.
FWIW, whatever people in off-the-record briefings may spin to the media, the private belief among the Labour MPs who’ve been there is that we’ll win, though on a much-reduced turnout. Personally I expect turnout to be higher than expected, say 35%.
Bernard Ponsonby was a Labour hack in an earlier life. He told me so himself. He worked for John smith. He may have stood for the Libdems.
After all Peter Hain was President of the Young Liberals but he still managed to pop up as a Cabinet Minister for Tony Blair.
you Scottish Libdems all think you are so bloody perfect. If your analysis of everything was so correct then you wouldn’t be facing the hammering we Tories faced in 1997 when seats with majorities of 9000 and 10000 went Labour. I will enjoy seeing yuor reaction as the SNP take your seats down in 2010.
Did the Arse call Henley wrong ?
49 - It is always nice to see someone go on the record. If turn-out is higher than expected, how do you think that might affect the result? Mr Smithson and Easterross have taken directly contradictory views on this point.
Nick did you see my post 17 above - Use of the terrorism act for alleged offences, that had nothing to do with terrorism.
I am still sticking to my view that this will be a fairly comfortable Labour hold with a 2-3,000 majority .
51 TGoHF. No, but the ARSE wasn’t able to digest fully the strength of the Conservative win and suffered a bout of Tory constipation …. a blockage that has now been fully extricated !!
50: I’m not a Lib Dem. You are correct if charmless. Bernard was a member of the Labour party when he was about 12 but left to become a Lib Dem. Anyone who knows him will confirm he is no Labour media hack.
The Glasgow East LibDem candidate will be one to watch for the future.
He is rated very highly
IAN ROBERTSON, LIB DEM
PERFORMANCE SO FAR
8/10
Rated most impressive performer by the media pack. Strong in debates and not afraid to argue – in a level-headed way – with questioners.
STRENGTHS
Highly articulate maths teacher and former star debater at university is clearly destined for great things – assuming Lib Dems find him a winnable seat.
55. Ah well every ARSE has an off day…
50 And the conversation in which he told me he had worked for John Smith was the same one in which John Morrison former Libdem leader of East Dunbartonshire Council (the Libdem council where along with 8 of his 11 colleagues he lost his seat and they lost control of the council going from 1st to 4th in terms of council seats) told me his party would be lucky if they held anything at the General Election in Scotland.
I have had a swipe at the allegations of endemic corruption in Monklands and Ponsonby nearly “swallowed me alive” for daring to criticise Labour or his former mentor John Smith.
I’m surprised by that rating for Ian Robertson.
I think he’s been appalling. Talks to fast, havers as he has a poor grasp of Libdem policy, waves his hands in an aggressive and patronising manner (uses the ’speak to the wrist’ gesture constantly while debating).
If this is one for the future for the Libs then they really are in trouble.
Easterross admits he was ‘nearly swallowed alive’ by Bernard Ponsonby. Was it his room or yours?
54 Mark, tend still to think Labour will win but with a smaller majority than you expect.
Still its a win-win election for the Tories & Lib Dems - lost deposits can be blamed on squeeze, SNP victory damages Labour, Labour win with reduced share puts a hold on the SNP advance and helps Gordon Brown’s survival.
59: Bernard has a very developed sense of humour. He likes taking the ….. If I was you I wouldn’t go around telling anyone that Bernard nearly swallowed you alive! You may be surprised by the reaction you get.
In reading these contributions I’m fascinated by the intensity, or perhaps one should say vitriol, that is apparent within some. Easterross may know about Scotland but something must have happened in his childhood to generate his emotional attitude to the Lib Dems.
When emotions get entangled with politics then we have trouble.
63. My favourite (repeatable) Bernard story is when he was sent to report on a murder in a pub in Paisley.
He asked a random Paisley local if there was much knife crime in the area.
“Oh yes, I carry one myself” says said local, pulling out his own knife.
The comments from people who have actually been there - Nick, Marcia and others,thank you. The betting. Most of all the confidence from Labours HQ, presumably based on canvas returns plus postals. All these factors seem to point to a reasonably comfortable Labour win.
I just wonder if people will tell the truth to Labour heavies, sorry a slip into unacceptable Glasgow stereotyping, I mean Labour canvassers.
I am sure they will, wont they.
From my experience postal voters are always the most motivated of voters with perhaps 90% of them voting in a GE and maybe as many as 70% in a local election.
Your figures indicate about 70% postal vote return. Does this indicate an overall turnout of 35-40%? If this is the case - does it benefit the SNP?
Often a higher than expected turnout in any election is an indication of an organised and targeted campaign by at least one of the parties. Don’t underestimate the squeeze - this will be a two horse race with tactical voting!
http://adamsmithwasasocialist.blogspot.com/2008/07/will-voters-be.html
has an interesting post - cheering me up about the prospects for my SNP bet. From a polling/betting point of view, it reinforces my doubts about overall %age polls. It would seem much better to do some demographics first and then build some regression models for each of them, rather than to read tealeaves into overall percentages.
The “NY Times” on Obama overseas and McCain at home :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/23/us/politics/23watch.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
64 - I wouldn’t read too much about Easteross’s knowledge of the Scottish political scene - it’s pretty one eyed and as his ignorance of Bernard Ponsonby shows - a quick Google - would tell him evrything he needs to know, it’s very much because he only sees what he wants to believe and ignores any evidence that interfers with his ‘Lib Dems spawn of beelzebub, SNP gods in man like form’ narrative.
I’d rather listen to ‘Ave it’s’ views - they’re about as accurate, but are rather less po-faced.
“I hadn’t realised that trafficking childreen - bad as it is - was classed as Terrorism.”
Labour’s laws would’ve classed the suffragettes and Martin Luther King as terrorists, had they been in force at the time.
Still amazing how the BBC seem content to parrot the line that the sitting Labour MP retired “on health grounds”. Not a glimmer of curiosity on the guy’s expenses-fest. Imagine what they’ve had made of it if it were a Conservative retiring with similar background fact. And Robert Waller reckons he’s never been able to detect any bias at the BBS. Stick to almanacs, RW.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7520111.stm
This continues to be a fascinating contest. We have Mike thinking the SNP may sneak it and Easterross also hopeful of an SNP win. I haven’t seen Stuart Dickson make a prediction? Mark Senior predicts a comfortable Labour hold, Nick Palmer has moved from too close to call to an expected Labour win and Ted is also calling it for Labour but by a smallish margin.
Yokel, Peter from Putney and I have all backed the SNP because we think there is value in the price but none of us are really convinced yet of collecting. Jack W will emit his view later today. Sorry to have missed out the views of other PB illuminati. Perhaps we could have one of those click-on PB polls?
THere is over £500 available to lay Labour at 1.4 on Betfair, the equivalent of backing SNP at 5/2. If the SNP do win this, then Nick and his esteemed sources will have serious egg on the face.
69. Replace the name ‘Dan’ with Eastross in that sour post and you get a pretty accurate summary of the value of that posters contribution.
Who said Labdimmers had problems with self awareness..?
Agree with Ian Lindley @13. If the numbers quoted for postal votes are correct this seems small. Has labour not known who the supporters were and failed to get them postal votes?
73 And you find that posters who refer to LibDems as Labdimmers are the most sour posters of them all .
re 22 Richard under this government practically anything can be counted as “terrorism”: reading out a list of the dead, heckling a government minister, protesting at a US base, not informed the police….
This is a very unworthy thought, but I was wondering why the previous MP required two doctors notes to say that he should step down on health grounds. You don’t need a sick note to step down as an MP. I don’t suppose he needed them for any loss of employment insurance claim, did he?
75
But the most accurate. After being lapdogs to the Labour party for so many years the Lib Dims should expect no better.
Labour had no canvass returns - but then I don’t suppose anyone else did either -it is safe seat for gods sake!
Re. 20, indeed, as John Cleese says in Clockwise, ‘It’s the hope I can’t stand’.
In answer to the lead question, I tend to agree with Nick Palmer. A loss for Labour will be bad news but won’t change anything.
The narrative seens to have moved away from Brown and onto the more substantive issue of the economy. In my view Labour are now stuck with Brown, whatever happens in Glasgow East. Unless Brown voluntarily steps aside shortly before the next GE to make room for “the next generation”, he will lead Labour to a major electoral drubbing in 2010. Tory majority 50-150.
77: yes I thought that strange too. Did the Whips require them?
79 icarus, John Mason had the largest vote of any Glasgow councillor in May 2007. You do not achieve that result with zero canvass returns!
re 74 the indecent rush to call this by election didn’t leave much time to get postal votes organised.
17: Absolutely disgraceful; and absolutely predictable.
If you give people power, they will use it to the maximum extent. This is the way it has always been, and will always be. That is why people should never be given power they dont really need. NuLab will never understand this (and to be honest neither did the Tories until they were in opposition).
The Terrorism acts need serious revision.
I’d be amazed if Labour lost this one, and I’ve been laying the SNP quite heavily, I think they should be upwards of 3/1.
I may be wrong, but I like to keep my money and my mouth in the closest possibly proximity…
83. Stuart Dickson. How do you predict the outcome of the Glasgow East byelection?
73, 75, 78 regardless of your views, it is just plain rude. Worse for you it devalues your arguments which may be well founded.
I would like to think that when I have a discussion with say Sean or Nick then although they might not agree with me at least it is a rational discussion and we are all influenced by the argument because I don’t insult their party and they don’t insult mine.
O/T.
Seems like a damn good idea:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7516873.stm
77 Interesting surmisal in view of the proposed welfare reforms.
73 Whatever you think of Dan, he is bang on this time.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45.5% .. Obama 50.5% .. Others 4%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 121 .. Obama 261 .. Toss Up 156
Changes Since Last Projection - Ohio moves from Likely Obama to Toss Up Obama. New Hampshire moves from Likely Obama to Toss Up Obama.
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 187 .. Obama 351.
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
85. Yes indeed. As more and more of these incidents occur, the government’s line that ‘the innocent have nothing to fear’ - the formulation of dictatorships throughout the ages - will be exposed for the pathetic and mendacious argument that it is.
As Lord Steyn argued some time ago, the real danger to the public is not terrorists, but the introduction of oppressive legislation ‘justified’ by the terrorist threat. Is it a coincidence that the party which is so eager to do this is stuffed full of former adherents of a totalitarian ideology?
I’ve got a small wager on the SNP. One thing that we’ve learned over the last 6 months is that there is no bottom to Labour support and no depths to which Gordon’s popularity cannnot sink.
The only reason to back Labour is “they surely can’t lose here”. Why not - why should GE think any better of Gordo and his mob than the rest of the Uk ?
Contrary to what Dan and most of the other Scottish Libdemers say I am not anti-Libdem. What I am against is them being so blinkered that they cannot see that 1997 is but a distant memory in Scottish politics.
I grew up surrounded by retired Colonels and “blue rinse” ladies who kept harking back to 1955 when Scotland was blue was from tip to toe and when seats like Glasgow Central could return Tory cabinet ministers. Indeed some remembered when Winston Churchill was MP for Dundee.
Scotland in 2007 politically was nothing like Scotland in 2005 and Scotland in 2008 is barely like Scotland in 2007. The SNP are the king-pins now. I don’t like it but I accept the reality. Sadly Scottish Libdems dont. Most of their current Scottish Westminster seats have been held by them for no more than 21 years and I remember such seats previously with 5000 to 10000 Tory majorities. I also remember sir Hector Munro in Dumfries witha 9000 Tory majority or Allan Stewart in East Renfrewshire with an 11000 Tory majority. Half were swept away in 1987 and the remainder in 1997. We Scots Tories have very thick skins and for 2 decades we have been compared to the dodo.
Scottish Libdems need to realise that they are not all wonderful. the Scots hold them as much to account for the failures of Holyrood 1999-2007 as they do the Labour party. If losing constituencies to the SNP and Tories in 2007 (including a Borders seat we haven’t held any part of for around 40 years since before David Steel’s time) and seeing themselves almost wiped out in East Dunbartonshire, one of their flagship councils doesn’t tell them they have a problem then that’s fine.
Dan keeps attacking my knowledge of Scottish politics. He hasn’t yet explained to us about the “huge” swing from SNP to Libdem in Inverness last year. He keeps making predictions on my behalf or putting words in my mouth. For example because I happened to praise Ian Robertson as being the best candidate in my opinion in Glasgow East and having suggested that the Libdems should put him up in Fife NE at the GE Dan suddenly decides I am predicting the LibDems will lose fife NE at the GE. Dan in which posting in the last 2 months have I claimed that?
So guys don’t put words in my mouth! As for Bernard Ponsonby, he and I were having a heated debate in a public bar in a fashionable part of Glasgow City Centre in the presence of around 50 other patrons including the former LibDem leader of East dunbartonshire who has been a friend of mine since he joined Glasgow University Law faculty in 1979. So no there was no form of sexual contact which no doubt some of you were alluding to!! Frankly I would rather believe what the individual himself told me about his past than any PBer or indeed the much discredit Wiki
“Is it a coincidence that the party which is so eager to do this is stuffed full of former adherents of a totalitarian ideology?”
Stuffed full of adherents to a *current* totalitarian ideology as well — NeoConservatism. (What, you didn’t seriously think it’s about freedom did you?!)
94 Easteross “Indeed some remembered when Winston Churchill was MP for Dundee.”
I remember it well !!
Jack W is 105.
BTW in todays Conservative Party we’re more likely to see blue rinse Colonels and retired ladies !!
94: If you take anything Bernard says seriously during a heated debate in a Glasgow “public bar” when he has an audience of fifty plus more fool you m8
£245 available to lay Labour @1.41 on betfair
94 But didn’t the ungrateful voters of Dundee reject the great man in a By election when he sought confirmation with a new ministerial post!
94 and 96 Jack W probably remembers too that Winnie was a Liberal when elected for Dundee, and only lost when L-G got too close to the Unionists.
93 Clearly there is a bottom to Labour support , however low it is , otherwise Labour would be losing every election they are defending . Instead they are losing most but retaining seats in their stronghold wards/areas - see Hillingdon last week , Derbyshire the previous week - albeit with much reduced majorities . Glasgow East is a Labour stronghold and IMHO will retain enough of their core vote to hold the seat with a reasonable majority .
Jack W, I didn’t want to say that
but maybe that’s DC’ secret weapon for 2010. Blue rinse colonels and retired ladies, must remember that.
I have to say that BBC Scotland’s “love affair” with Annabel Goldie seems to show no sign of diminishing.
Over the past 3 weeks we have had Annabel in her favourite burgundy suit, Annabel in lemon, red, pink and almost every other fashionable colour, Annabel in jogging pants and T shirt, Annabel doing aerobics and last night Annabel doing leg weights in a gym with a natty red headband on. I have to say some of the latter have not been a pretty site
However it is a serious point the fact that both the Libdems and Tories have fought this “no hope” by-election particularly hard with most of their top names present and indeed the only party with very few of their top names present has been Labour.
Just backed the SNP at 3.7 on betfair..
‘Oscars for Best Performance at a By-Election?’
I am not sure but they should be giving a life time achievement award out to the Labour Party for their ability to act like they ever cared about constituents in Glasgow East, for the last 50 years. Independence is just around the corner
103.
Good move at a good price
Meanwhile …. after a visit from Charlie Kennedy in Glasgow East the political elephant in the room finds a new use for the empties !!
http://www.pantherhouse.com/newshelton/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/up.jpg
“O/T A police officer has been transferred from duties at a Channel crossing after a disabled child and his parents were detained under the Terrorism Act.”
For all you know, that disabled child could be a leading Al Qaeda operative.
“We Scots Tories have very thick skins and for 2 decades we have been compared to the dodo.” Easterross
Most unfair - I have seen a dodo. Admittedly it was stuffed in the Pitt Rivers museum.
107. I thought you were going to say “Mark Oaten’s mouth” - then I noticed there were only two “o” s..
107 And people regret the disappearance of the dodo.
9 - Incorrect, he said the surge worked but that his plan would also have worked. No change of view at all!
It is also the case that external factors unrelated to the surge converged to help the surge work, without those then it may not have done.
What is useful is someone who realises the nature of why things work or not, not some dumb guy who wants to believe that they control everything.
102 - “the only party with very few of their top names present has been Labour”
Interesting what you say about the Lib Dems and Tories fighting it quite hard. Can only help Labour really.
On the point of “top names” coming to by-elections, I would suggest Labour has the right idea. Nobody knows who any of these people (from any of the parties) are and if they do they either have no opinion or dislike them. Strikes me as more bother than it’s worth in a by-election context (at General Elections it at least focuses minds on the seat mattering and may get a clip on the regional news). I would accept party leaders have a bit more pull, although not much and Brown is well out of it simply because he wouldn’t help them to be honest.
James, 111, is it possible that the “top names” from the LibDems and the Tories are not visiting Glasgow because they expect to win the seat, but because their activists expect it of them?
We accept that Labour activists have probably given up anyway - and would, given Brown’s SADIM-touch reputation, prefer him to stay away altogether.
110 - Further to that, as partial evidence -
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/07/mccain-on-the-a.html
McCain is the one who doesn’t know what he’s doing, I used to think he was amiable enough but he’s starting to look pretty dangerous.
McCain’s supposed USP is shot, I hope that the media finally getting around to examining McCain rather than Obama sooner rather than later.
Interesting to note that Labour to win GE are about the same price as Obama is to be the next president - should they be the same price or is one more likely ??
111 If Lib Dems & Tories hold/gain rather than get squeezed then their votes would surely damage Labour rather than SNP? Unikely SNP votes would leave the SNP. Every vote Labour loses counts and losses to other unionist parties would help the SNP.
102 - Haven’t been following the Labour campaign too closely, but I thought the whips were suggesting all Labour MPs visit GE? Certainly there have been a few about. Was this excepting ministers?
Here’s another distasteful result of the anti-democratic zealots in the EU showing no sign of recognising that no-one outside their club wants a federal state and everyone is sick of being lied to and treated like idiots. The Austrian Freedom Party, once led by Jorg Haider - is now polling 20% and heading for a hold over the balance of power. Well done all you former commies and anti-fascists! A Europe free from racism and wars! Thank God our BNP started from such a low base when Labour got into power. We’re slowly but surely heading for Euro style right-wing extremism in the mainstream as a result of being sold out to the EU. Great.
Here’s the FT article, which contains this interesting nugget of information:
“The latest Eurobarometer poll [for Austria]shows only 28 per cent of respondents positive about the EU .”
http://www.qurl.com/rnsb8
114 - Huh?!? Betfair - Obama 1.49 for next prez, Labour for next government 6.0.
What bookies are offering you similar odds? Have they lost their marbles?
118. Sorry GE = Glasgow East
110. He didn’t say his plan would have worked. He said he wouldn’t have carried out the surge because of the cost of billions of dollars. The potential loss of thousands of Iraqi lives, scores of US soldiers’ lives and a region in chaos isn’t worth the cash in his book.
“Obama: Because … it’s pretty straightforward. By us putting $10 billion to $12 billion a month, $200 billion, that’s money that could have gone into Afghanistan. Those additional troops could have gone into Afghanistan. That money also could have been used to shore up a declining economic situation in the United States. That money could have been applied to having a serious energy security plan so that we were reducing our demand on oil, which is helping to fund the insurgents in many countries. So those are all factors that would be taken into consideration in my decision — to deal with a specific tactic or strategy inside of Iraq.”
118. And Obama 1.43..
118 — that threw me too for a second, but I suspect ‘GE’ in this case means’Glasgow East’, not ‘General Election’.
112 - Yes, that’s probably true about a lot of them visiting for the sake of activists. I don’t really think it’s likely to win them votes though and is just an organisational hassle.
Incidentally, I think even if Brown was reasonably popular he should not turn up as a point of principle (”I am too busy running the country but fully support our candidate”) and should campaign primarily on local issues (and that is the advice I would give to Cameron if he became PM). Blair turned up to early ones and it became a millstone later when he stopped doing it. “PM absent from campaign” is less of a story if you set the approach while you are still in your honeymoon.
117. 28% seems quite high
119 - Ah, GE means General Election to me!
the other 72% could care less!
117 - “A Europe free from racism and wars!”
In fairness, sad though it is that the Freedom Party is doing well in Austria, I won’t be cancelling my skiing holiday for fear it is likely to get caught up with massive troop movements on the Hungarian border.
107 - there is no Dodo in the Pitt-Rivers. There is a mock-up of one in the adjoining University Museum of Natural History.
I have put my money on the SNP to win but that is more of a heart ruling the head bet which is why I haven’t put too much on it so that I won’t lose a lot if we lose.
My feeling is that it is very close and probably Labour should win albeit with a very reduced majority - possibly a three figure majority. I think Mike’s prediction that it is 55%-45% in Labour’s favour is fairly accurate.
Having said that the reason for my optimism for the SNP - apart from the obvious - is that Labour have ran an appalling campaign. They have made so many mistakes and have been caught out in so many lies.
Their entire strategy it seems is to attack John Mason which shows me that they are very concerned about him. Some of their leaflets have his name and his picture rather more prominentely than Margaret Curran. Many voters that I have spoken to in Glasgow thought they were getting SNP leaflets rather than Labour ones at times.
If Labour lose this seat then they are going to have to take a long hard look at their campaign techniques but I suspect that Scottish labour are too arrogant to realise that what they are doing is counter-productive.
120 - He put forward a plan to work, not to fail, it’s barmy to suggest he put forward a plan that he expected to fail.
The truth is that the surge (and Petraeus who is the real hero in that part of the solution, not any politician) was one factor among many that have contributed to a better situation.
The chance now, is to get the hell out of there and into Afghanistan where the real battle should be and should have been all along.
126, two important points:
1) ‘could care less’ sounds stupid. I don’t know why people say it.
2) if Europe’s so popular why have the Dutch, French and Irish told them to bugger off, and why won’t the UK hold a referendum? If 28% are pro and 72% apathetic then 28% of the electorate will turn out and vote for the treaty and nobody will vote against.
120. Unless you believe Gen McFarland was lying when he said the awakening was the tipping point in 2006 months before the surge then you really are ignorant.
126 - Are you American? One of the more bizarre linguistic differences is the ‘could/couldn’t care less’ one.
120. Obama has always said that an increase in troop levels may well decrease violenece, but that the sectarianism can not be solved by a military solution: it needs a political one.
You seem to believe that if someone has a policy, they’re not allowed to refine it as you go. That would be a very bad way to run a war or a country.
Re: Austria; I was there at the weekend, and there was little evidence of the upcoming election. We took a bus and did not even realise we had crossed into Germany, so insignificant was the border. The bus was full of locals tooing and froing for work. They may miss such advantages if the EU “closed down”.
Oh, and the tarmac on the road does not change the way it sometimes does when you cross a county boundary in England.
Atop and Alp we drifted from one cafe bar to another - five minutes walk apart in different countries. Of course using the same currency. For a tourist, it was a pleasure but I accept that the matter of EU integration and single currency is not geared solely towards tourism.
135. There is freedom of movement between Norway and Sweden, even though the former is in the EU. And between Northern Ireland and the Republic, before the EU happened.
135. The German-Austrian border barely existed long before Austria’s entry to the EU.
136. “Isn’t”
127 - Not least because the area of Austria that adjoins the Hungarian border was part of Hungary until the settlement after World War One. Austria actually gained territory after World War One.
111. I think Labour are making the candidate the focus of their campaign. After all, she is the ‘incumbent’ being the MSP for the bulk of the Westminster constituency.
Alex Salmond, rather than their candidate, is the centerpiece of the SNP campaign.
The Tories and Lib Dems are getting ‘names’ to Glasgow East to try and get at least a couple of column inches in the media.
No just not very good at checking my posts - I even put my dodo in wrong museum a few posts ago but luckily it was spotted!
139. Correct - and might have gained more. But things were so organised to prevent that in Sopron/Odenburg and elsewhere.
StJohn asked for a poll of pb’ers asking how they think Glasgow East will go.
In a shameless piece of ‘diary pimping’ (that’s what they call it ‘Stateside’, don’t you know…) I have appended such a poll to the bottom of my new diary on the Lib Dems and Liberal Populism.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/7/23/6945/63608/769/555524
You can’t comment on the diary there, unless you are a logged-in member (you have to wait 24 hours to post after you join), but you will all be able to vote in the polls.
140. I’m not sure Labour have much option; senior figures have been up from London but not in front of the cameras. Someone must know they would do more harm than good. In terms of Scottish Labour support, this is difficult as it is widely believed that Margaret Curran ‘leaked’ on Wendy, so no endorsement from that quarter.
113. Yes, exactly. The bulk of the decline in violence happened because we paid and armed Shia and Sunni tribal warlords to attack Al-Qaeda and other groups. The result is that violence is down, but we now have several strongmen, not least Al-Sadr, who have been militarily and financially well-equppied by the United States. On top of this, they have more legitimacy with the Iraqi people because they’re not seen as American lackeys, unlike the government. No wonder Maliki wants us out.
Also I note this bit:
“I mean, to deny that their sacrifice didn’t make possible the success of the surge in Iraq, I think, does a great disservice to young men and women who are serving and have sacrificed.”
McCain has become a typical Republican: when in doubt play the “honour our troops!” card.
137 - the worst border I have ever had to cross was from Czech to Slovak by bus in 1995. So many passport controls… Finland / Russia by train is also very painful.
146. That’s always going to happen between more developed and less developed countries, because the MDC is worried about drug smuggling and people trafficking. If you just dropped border controls between such nations you’d get Romanian and Lithuanian girls turning up in London brothels. Oh, wait…
146 Have you ever crossed from Bavaria to the Czech Republic, into what was the Sudetenland? It’s quite striking how delapidated things are on the Czech side. Our bus (the train had broken down) was full of Germans, many quite elderly, who may once have lived there (or their parents had). I wonder what they were thinking.
142 - The Austrians benefited long-term from that also though. Sopron is one of the places that Austrians now go for cheap dentistry and opticians. It’s a very beautiful city, for those that haven’t been.
148. They’ve made their (unrepentant) views pretty clear over the years.
148 - yes, I have crossed that many times by coach, but not since 1996. The Czech side was full of “dance bars” (nudge, nudge) and stalls selling spirits and ciggies.
I met a man who had been exiled from his family home in Sudetenland aged 2, who had gone back to see it. Just too see it once - that is all. He felt no animosity as he had enjoyed a far better standard of living in West Germany. This is a typical WG attitude; the EG tourists I used to meet had far less kind thoughts, and were largely despised as a result.
I worked in a Sudeten town (in a chandelier factory). As a rough rule of thumb in many of these places, when the Germans were thrown out, the Gypsies moved in, usually from Slovakia.
New thread - Tories take 20% lead with MORI
18.
Tories are not likely to switch to Labour. There was a Scotland-wide poll a few weeks ago which said that of all Scots 49% wanted the SNP to win Glasgow East. The breakdown of party allegiance was that 41% of LibDems preferred Labour to SNP to win but 44% preferred an SNP win over Labour.
It was the Tories who overwhelmingly preferred an SNP win to a Labour win. I can’t remember the exact figures but it was something like 70% SNP to 20% Labour.
The SNP needs to squeeze the Tory vote as the Libs are more neutral.
However the campaign has been more about converting Labour votes - more efficient. In the last couple of days pics of Brown with Thatcher have been delivered in post-card format and news about Marshall’s ‘corruption’ has got out. These are targetted at soft Labour votes.
I don’t know where the info is coming from about Labour being comfortably ahead. Labour’s camp are very afraid - after all this affects the leadership in London. Who will dare to say ‘x’ or ‘y’?