Glasgow East - and now the wait
July 24th, 2008
The polls closed at 10pm but the Glasgow East betting will continue right through until the result is known.
I’ve not been convinced either way in the this contest and have refrained from betting today. Maybe that was a mistake.
The whole atmosphere has been dominated by the polls - particularly the latest one and this has had a big impact on the betting. Whether what punters are doing is in any way predictive we’ll know before very long.
Mike Smithson
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But at least it has been a fascinating evening!
Started off thinking labour would win this easy, for the last couple of weeks I’ve changed my mind numerous times. The only surprise will be if this isn’t close.
Relaunch #44,032 starts tomorrow… Can’t wait!
Guardian reporting that the SNP have won it by a “slither”.
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/glasgow_east_byelection_live.html
The Guardian muddying the waters?
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/glasgow_east_byelection_live.html
10.15pm
I’m at the Tollcross Park Leisure centre near Shettleston Road where tonight’s count is taking place. You remember the leisure centre I lauded yesterday for its nice pools? That’s the one.
Before I go any further, it’s surely time to say three cheers to all the activists who have given their time and energies to supporting their party political beliefs of whatever hue in this byelection campaign.
A first-hand account of by an SNP activist reveals it has been a busy polling day, with plenty of rumours flying about.
The polls have now closed so I can now report the latest rumour doing the rounds this end: the SNP has won this seat by a slither, while the Tories will end up in third place behind Labour, with the Lib Democrats coming fourth.
Liberal Democrat Voice’s Stephen Tall is pleased with Ian Robertson’s campaign for the party, regardless of tonight’s result. “Whatever vote Ian gets, he personally has come out of this well,” says Tall.
Can I emphasise it’s only rumour, not fact, but if it’s true and the SNP does win, the political earth will truly be shaking, as Alex Salmond predicted. Now we have to wait to find out.
Well Mike, whatever the result, your predictions that it could be very close, on a relatively high turn out, currently look good.
I cant stay up to watch this one - shame.
Re: the whole Wintertons thing, if Cameron is trying to force them out it is perhaps a sign that he finally “gets” it. The public in the 21st century will simply not put up with the kind of narcissistic bullsh1t they stand for…
3 I predict an emphasis on making the right (and tough) long term decisions
heres hoping there is decent coverage from the BBC…
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/23/where-do-the-lib-dems-go-from-here/#comments see 206
Forecast:
SNP 41
LAB 40
Con 9
Lib 5
Oth 5
by Richard Howell July 23rd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
7, No they will be listening and learning….
BBC Scotland just started a rumour that SLab have lost.
news 24 said the most optimistic Lab prediction was close and the most pessimistic we’ve lost it
Newsnight Scotland - Labour reactions range from ‘close’ to ‘we’ve lost it’
lol - Labour going down in Glasgow East
I am going for SNP four figures
curtice - balance of probability snp has pulled it off
Radio Scotland: long faces in the Labour Party…
If Labour do this where would this rank in terms of by election shockers for all parties?
Come on the SNP….I will laugh my ass off if SLab lose this.
John Curtice is cock-a-whoop to say the least.
BBC seem to be implying a SNP win?
can it be true? GE imminent?
ScotBeeb are claiming a Nat victory? O RLY?
SNP moving back in on Betfair…..
“It’s the hope I can’t bear” - John Cleese, clockwise
Paralells with Eastbourne being drawn
Turnout reporting at the 45-46% mark.
15 - someone on BBC seems to be saying the earthquake may have hit
To shamelessly nick a Mc Donalds ad….
I’m loving it
SNP tightening quite fast - too fast for me to get on
18. BBC Scot hedging bets between Close for “Labour” and “SNP just winning”
BBC has a tendency of doing Labour’s bidding; wouldn’t surprise me if they talked up the SNP only for Labour to win. What is Sky News saying?
Radio Scotland saying turnout could be as high as 46%
Surely the BBC are just getting their retaliation in first so the labour win looks better if they have predicted a loss
Mark my words - tonight could be a huge night for UK political betting…
If Labour loses there is a high probability of a quick Brown departure and an early election. Cameron could be PM within months.
If Labour wins, we’re odds on for 2010 with Brown as leader.
Sturgeon and Dougie Howser MP now on
Sturgeon - too close to call
Dougie Howser - We want to win this by-election (lol, dimwit)
Is anyone watching Sky?
As I mentioned earlier in the day:
“It’s Maggie wot won it!”
Boulton: “less than 1,000 votes in it”
I hope Labour cling on by the skin of the teeth, it will still result in a negative narrative for Labour. However, i’m worried that a defeat will be the end of Brown. That cannot be. Yet.
@28:
Gah! Doogie Howser = Would, Doogie Alexander = Double-bagger.
HTH.
Sky - SNP are talking of a political earthquake (Angus Robertson) - that may just mean its very very close
Is sky streamed on the internet… I am streaming news 24 on the computer while I do some late work
Boulton - worst case 3am.
Nice ‘By-Election Special’ for Glasgow East on the BBC. Whereas was this sort of coverage for Crewe and Nantwich, Henley or Haltemprice and Howden?
Didnt Gordo alledgly say something is bound to go wrong…
37 - There was quite a good By-Election Special for Crewe and Nantwich, but it was pretty thread-bare for Henley and Haltemprice IIRC.
35 - I think you can get audio only.
30. The state funeral has been an especially popular decision.
Time to hold nerve now for the win or trade for profit. Judging by the look on Alexander’s face (D) I’ll hold on.
I hope there wont be any recounts
35. You have to register…
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Sky-Live-TV
36 - 3am? Get it over with quick, please!
please, where can I get coverage on the internet?
Dougie says ‘Of course Gordon was on leaflets’
Dougie is wise however
Sturgeon corrects him
Dougie - ‘Gordon was in Jedda’
If Labour win Dougie will be delighted, if they lose he will be disappointed.
He really is a political giant
39. Crewe and Nantwich was better than the latter two but I don’t recall a dedicated studio manned by Jon Sopel.
Click on listen live ALex SAOR ALBA
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radioscotland/
High turnout ALWAYS works against Labour…..
Biggest Lab meltdown of all time!!!
Labour will never win an election again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PS Lab = small party!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Those of us who watched the Holyrood results come in last year, will remember fondly the twitch that wee Dougie developed as it became clear that it was all unravelling for SLab.
37. To be fair, both Henley and H&H were relative non-events. C&N merited a better show though.
40 thanks, I’m stuck with the beeb then.
32 chris M - Cameron’s bike got nicked today while he was doing the shopping, himself, at Tesco. Now what do you think that little detail says to British families? Cameron is one of them.
News 24 just showed Cameron launching the Tory Glasgow campaign with Davena personally. compare and contrast with Labour in Henley.
They cannot beat David Cameron. Impossible. I do not care who their leader is. Let’s have Brown gone and a general election because Cameron will win it.
45 Alex in Madrid go to bbc.co.uk go to news click on the link for streamed coverage
Off-topic:
The News of the World are peeved that European law has sided with Max “My Old man supported Hitler” Mosley. Will Rupert Murdoch jump ship soon…?
They’ve picked the two most typical looking politicians in the world to talk in the studio.
Old, ugly, suits.
YES
Finally you can watch Sky online
here:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Sky-Live-TV
used to be only audio which was annoying
SNP gain Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Brown gain time to spend with the family
And it’s bye bye Gord !!
Noo-Labour insiders are forecasting an SNP victory with a majority of 500. Check it out.
40. possibly, tho’ as a cyclist myself, what sort of a dummy locks their bike to a bollard, allowing it to be lifted off!
48 Labour = “others”!!!
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!
Lab = HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Brown to resign tomorrow GOODBYE!
Worse result for labour than when whatsisname lost in easington on 1931!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
58 - sorry that was to test at 41
52. That won’t work if he actually is in Madrid
56. Given my parents are in Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy, and my Dad is now adamant he’s voting SNP (which shocked me, given he’s very much a Union man) it would be a scary call to go for a beahding strategy, but the mood is thick enough to narrow it substantially.
Still SNP 2.82 on BF…..
If I didn’t have too much on that side already I’d take some more
More from the Guardian:
10.55pm
Turnout for this byelection seems to have been better than some feared. I chat with the spokesman for the polling staff who tells me a survey of polling stations conducted at nine o’clock this evening indicated a turnout of about 41%. Add to that the postal votes - which are expected to make up 5% of all votes cast - and the tally goes up to about 46% with still one hour to go. That suggests the number of people who voted this time might be on a par with the rate at the 2005 general election (48%). But it’s a survey, and we won’t know for sure until verifying is completed, which will take a while.
Boxes from the 76 polling stations situated on 40 polling sites are still coming in to be verified. That means tellers tip the ballot papers on to the tables and check that each ballot box contains the right number. They are hard at it.
40. Absolutely Cameron would beat Brown in a General Election right now. My concern is if Brown is forced out without an immediate General Election, a ’steady-hand’ comes in and we end up with a 20 seat Conservative majority in two years rather than 150. I would still like Brown to stay until the bitter end. It’s not that we need him but his being there does help.
Jo Swinson = fit
Oh shit
Brown is sccrooed:
http://www.youtube.com/user/ACLBlair
Jo Swinson and Murdo Fraser united in marginality for this by-election.
oooh Jo hits back with a nifty bit of self-promotion and tales of a tasty Lib dem gain in Dunfermline
60. You mean Seaham in 1935, when MacDonald lost?
Bad news for you: he lost to the Official Labour candidate, Shinwell…
PS all over for obama = berlin = sheffield 1992
Brilliant performance by mccain on sky
Mccain might win all seats apart from dc
While you are all waiting for the result I thought you might enjoy the following from the Mosley judgement - just to show how going to law will save your reputation:
“Mr Thurlbeck [NoW journalist] also relied upon the fact that the Claimant [Mosley] was “shaved”. Concentration camp inmates were also shaved. Yet, as Mr Price pointed out, they had their heads shaved. The Claimant, for reasons best known to himself, enjoyed having his bottom shaved – apparently for its own sake rather than because of any supposed Nazi connotation. He explained to me that while this service was being performed he was (no doubt unwisely) “shaking with laughter”. I naturally could not check from the DVD, as it was not his face that was on display.”
67. Rather Swinson than Teather
The SNP lassie should see a hairdresser…
Sky News coverage (at the mo’) is dire. Just shows how desperate one can be; I’m watching Auntie Beeb!
Obama is not pulling away, I would be worried, Both Clinton and Dukakis were around 10-20 points ahead at this time during the process.
Come on, where’s gabble? We demand the Ave It/Gabble tag team!
The body language and responses from Douglas Alexander, under tough questioning by Jon Sopel, suggest Labour have either lost or pretty nearly lost.
Interesting perspective on the use of Gwyneth Dunwoody’s name in C&N but not David Marshall’s in Glasgow East. I guess there was no emotive capital for Labour to gain with Marshall.
72. Teather is potatoesque. Does she have a new seat for 2009/10?
78 - its more like the fact that he has had his hand majorly in the till for the last god knows how many years - hence the sudden resignation.
76 - Nowhere as entertaining as the UKPaul/Yokel combination.
77. Has he had plastic surgery? The point of his nose used to flap while he was speaking…
76
Yes where is Gabble, Dow Jones down 283 pts today, doesnt augur well for the footsie tomorrow…………
Any reason why BBC News is so booooooooooring? Are they trying to send everyone to sleep? CNN keeps you entertained and awake. This is dull, dull, dull.
No one else seems to have said it so far but if turn-out is c46% and if the SNP win, Mr Smithson has once again correctly outwitted the rest of us. He said that turn-out would be high and he said that would favour the SNP. Respect is due.
79. She’s fighting Brent Central.
Murdo Fraser is coming across very well as a decent communicator.
77 agreed
81 - Depends if you want comedy or drama.
Despite enthusiastic ramping for the Nats here the Betfair market drifts back to Labour….
‘Margarent Curran has talked too much and too long’, Amen to that. About 20 years too long, in my opinion.
89 - Horror?
83. Bang go my Barratt shares. Again.
92 - Depends on the ending.
(O/T but I’m just ploughing through ‘Hammer House of Horror’, a TV seris from 1980, did we really all look so appalling then?)
John Curtice can prove the impossible: he makes Professor Thrasher look not only intelligent, but highly incisive…!
BBC 5 live news SNP might be on the verge of a sensational result
I’ve turned the sound down and tuned into Radio Scotland, no politicians and it’s quite informative.
quote from reporter ( Didnt catch his name) on BBC “Labour dont think they have won, been getting gloomier from 2pm”
Another quote “first 12 months of Gordon Brown an absolute disaster”
Well, not wrong is he…..
Betfair hardly shifted in the past couple of hours or more…
If the SNP have won it will certainly kick the PH100. PB called it right at 50-50.
And… respect will be due to the posterior of the noble Jack W
I’m getting the impression that the SNP are going to win this, which makes Cricks’ spinning that it’s an anti-Labour vote not anti-Brown even more pathetic.
102 I heard that Crick used to be a member of Witney CLP.
Ming looks like he’s been dead for a week.
ooh SNP in to 2.7 now…. here we go
Ming - typically anti-Tory as ever. Hopeless.
104. Ming will be making a comeback - http://www.merrymedia.co.uk/%60images%60/stories/library/doyouremember/scotch_video_1.png
Civilised interview by Ming.
AVE IT is the greatest poster ever on here and looks forward to MCCAIN’S victory!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
103 I expect a pro-Labour bias from most BBC political reporters, but Crick is blatant with it. Though, having said that, so are Robinson and Marr most of the time.
SNP coming right in now on Betfair.
108 two years to retirement!!!!!
You’ve had a good run!!!!!!!!!
Anna Soubry will win by 30% in your seat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
108. Pass the bucket please. I’m feeling a bit queasy!
Interesting stuff from Ming.
109 you are indeed the greatest poster on PB Ave It.
Respect.
94 “did we really all look so appalling then?”
Don’t know about you - but I did.
Shouldn’t nurse have tucked Ming up by now? Seems cruel to keep him up so late.
Turnout 42.25%
42.25% turnout
BBC Scotland saying turnout 42.25%.
Turnout 42.25%
turnout 42.25%
42.25% turnout - official
Turnout 42.25%
42.25%
42,25% turnout
turnout 42.25%
Turnout 42.25%!
Turnout 42.25%
42.25 turnout. BBc
official turnout: 42% and a bit
114 You oviously lead a very sheltered life if you find Mings’ pompous ramblings interesting.
42.25 Turnout!!!!! OFFICIAL
Snap!
BBC - Conservatives say 3rd. LDs resigned to 4th.
Result before 1am, hooray!
Just in case anyone missed it 42.25!
result within the next hour- BBC
Anyone know what the turnout is?
Tories to take third! Congratulations to Davena Rankin
Result in an hour?
What’s that about great minds…?
BBC Radio Scotland - Official turnout 42.5%
“Labour have gone from glum to despondant”
Anyone know what the turnout is yet?
anyone know what the turnout was?
@arse I was slowest…. :o(
My initial thoughts on this by election were that the pensioner generation would never vote anything but Labour and would hold up their vote.It seems they’ve been enthused enough to get out and not only vote but switch to the SNP.
if you haven’t hear turnout is 42.25%
Sorry, I think I missed the turnout…….:)
Was turnout 42.25% by any chance ??
what was the turnout
Fourteen posts at the same time saying the same thing, surely a pb record.
Speed up everyone!
Thanks Devon… :o)
118-131 - your wish to inform us is commendable. Is this a record for consecutive identical posts on political betting?
HELP~! WHAT WAS THE TURNOUT AGAIN?
wonderful Tory result if that is true. We are not Labour, we fight for every vote in every seat. We don’t bleed tactical votes
WHAT WAS THE TURNOUT?
You won’t even be required to constantly monitor them on SLab as they will be fulfilled instantly. It’s a dedicated studio manned that can help you increase the twitch. Brown to do this is join the internet and talk to Labour.
Anyone know what turnout was?
Does the 42% include postals or not?
Steven Purcell was one of those who declined to stand for Labour
Sensational by-election Con gain…
…in Boston…
From the Boston Bypass Independents (I kid you not)
does anybody know the turnout?
BBC: “Is Brown a liability for Labour”.
Do you really need to ask? LOl LOL LOL
148 lol Jack. Looking good for….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzsWuqNlLK4
Tory candidate was interesting, the ‘feeling’ was that the Lib Dem candidate was ‘more impressive’ on the telly but she clearly appealed to the voters.
I hear turnout was 42.26%. Is that right?
Leader of Glasgow council - if you know the PM, he is capable of giving you ‘a little of the magic’
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA what a twit
Apparently lots of dejected Labour faces at the count.
stephen purcell, whoever he is, what an idiot on bbc. brown is the best man to lead us through the ‘international’ crisis…… lol to the power 10
161. I thought this was Jack’s anthem?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX3S1f_7dI4
STV coverage also now started online (and on TV in Scotland)
http://www.stv.tv/content/news/glasgow_east_byelection/index.html
Amazing stuff from Ming. You know things are bad when a friend from another party is sticking up for you - incredible stuff.
BY election Result
Boston Coastal ward
TORY GAIN
Con 344 BBI 306 LD 213 BNP 119 UKIP 88 LAB 44 t/out 37.3%
Turnin was 57.75.
Stephen Purcell was an original choice for the seat but declined to stand. There may be some investigation pending into a local land deal…*cough*
Turnout was between 40 and 44.99%.
Well done to all those who backed that. First show was 4/1, drifted out to 7/1 at one point and last price was 5/1.
Hats off to our host who predicted a decent turn out. Nick Palmer also got it pretty bang on IIRC.
164 Gordon Brown is Paul Daniels
Labour gain Debbie Mcgee
Oh this is such fun.
162 she was a senior trade union official and had stood in Glasgow before
Result expected at 1:30am, if no recount (big “if” surely).
Fiona Ross’s father was Secretary of State for Scotland in Harold Wilson’s cabinet, the late Willie Ross
142 (toontoon) Can you let me know when glum to despondent becomes utter misery…….
Hmmm in terms of turnout I went for 29.4% - thats a little lower than the actual figure. I also went for 9% Tories so hopefully I am a little low there too!
142 (toontoon) Can you let me know when glum to despondent becomes utter misery…….
176: unlike Bernard P she was a labour media hack!
Hmmm in terms of turnout I went for 29.4% - thats a little lower than the actual figure. I also went for 9% Tories so hopefully I am a little low there too!
#176
So is Fiona another dimmy drop-out a’la Polly Tonybee…?
I must say (having just caught up with posts of the last few hours), I’m amused by the fourteen!!! consecutive posts all giving the turnout…
Been on for nearly an hour now and does anyone else think it is strange that NOBODY has predicted a LAB win?
Big move to SNP underway on Betfair
I thought a low turnout favoured the SNP as I didn’t envisage the number of straight switchers from LAB to the SNP. It seems that people have turned out to give the entire Labour party a doing.
Time to go bawdeep on SNP. I’m sure they’ve won this and anything over 2.0 is one of the best bets you’ll ever have.
Guess the call has been passed through to the bunker now.
“Hoots mon, Gordo. Dinnae get in a stooshie, now, but tha’ wee man fae the Nats has whipped oor arse”
176 Will Davena Ranking get a winnable seat off the back of this.
Newsnicht I mean :o)
Labour 1.6
is the Boston ward in an interesting seat at the GE? I have only heard of Boston and Holland, wherever that is.
Douglas Alexander just talked about 63rd quarter of growth. Hasn’t anyone told him Labour has only been in power for 43 of them!!
SNP still available at 2.6 on betfair
Turnout = 42.25%
Ave it………..leading with the news as usual!!!!!!
SNP 2.3
SNP in to 5/4 on betfair!!
187 - yes, hopefully something opposition held so she can prove what a great campaigner she is.
187 will punter get a brain in 2009?????????!
Sturgeon is surprised by Brown as PM
She clarifies that she is surprised how inept he has been.
Sturgeon - all her Tory hatred is now turned on Labour.
Betfair edging towards Evens the pair!
I cautioned against reading much into the Betfair odds when it was favourable for Labour, the same applies now they’re moving the other way.
Another big tightening in the SNP price. Unsure whether I should trade or hang on now
Well, I was a wee bit nervous about taking the Nats at 3.55 this morning, but I’m feeling slightly chirpier now.
SNP in to 2.2 and Labour on 1.7
Too close to call! Long faces in labour camp! Shiver of expectation in SNP ranks.
See my earlier posts. SNP to win by a nose. Turnout 36%
Dont say I didnt tell ya all.:)
( this is what I posted on other threads from 16.00hrs today)
I am at westminster tomorrow (today) - I expect to see gordon moving out and getting the bus!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Punter she would need to move to England as all the possible ory gains have already selected as far as I can recall.
Eminence it was BP who told me himself he was a Labour party hack. As I said the other night, Peter Hain was once Young LibDem National President but he still became a Labour MP and Cabinet Minister.
Too close to call! Long faces in labour camp! Shiver of expectation in SNP ranks.
See my earlier posts. SNP to win by a nose. Turnout 36%
Dont say I didnt tell ya all.:)
( this is what I posted on other threads from 16.00hrs today)
189. Nope. It’s in Boston and Skegness, which is a safe Conservative seat. (It was UKIP’s best performance in 2005.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_and_Skegness_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
184. I’d ignore that. It’s me!
169: Boston: “BNP 119 UKIP 88 LAB 44″
LOL at Labour…
187 she should, she certainly should. But in the Tory party allocation of seats is up to associations.
Don’t know if it is true, but I read that she stepped in when the selected candidate declined to fight a by-election.
Such courage deserves a reward IMO
Too close to call! Long faces in labour camp! Shiver of expectation in SNP ranks.
See my earlier posts. SNP to win by a nose. Turnout 36%
Dont say I didnt tell ya all.:)
( this is what I posted on other threads from 16.00hrs today)
Well, we could sit here all night and speculate about the result, but it is all idle until we have some idea of the turnout. Anyone care to hazard a guess?
Well, we could sit here all night and speculate about the result, but it is all idle until we have some idea of the turnout. Anyone care to hazard a guess?
The SNP’s Westminster leader has hinted that Labour has won but only just…