“Labour MPs across Scotland will be quaking in their boots.” - John Mason, from his victory speech.
On-topic: I’m as surprised (and impressed) by the high turnout as anyone. Probably says something about the desire of Glasgow East’s voters to get Labour out…
“Ms Harman is insisting that she is telephoned each night about 10.30pm by the duty press officer at No 10, starting on Sunday, to give her a summary of the next day’s newspapers and to discuss urgent issues. She wants her private secretary and special advisers to be included in a 7.30am conference call, followed by a daily meeting at 9am around the Cabinet table.”
The BBC did a really solid job tonight, and did it with good humour all round. Jon Sopel is clearly just as into this as we are, and that gives the whole endeavour a good foundation. I hope he gets to do the general.
595 PB.com readers said that the SNP would win versus 589 who said Labour would win - a 49% tie, with the SNP sneaking it. The SNP won a recount and won by 1.4% of the vote. Spot on.
553 (or 60-ish%) said the Tories would come third, versus 34% who said the Lib Dems would come third. The actual result had the Conservatives winning just under two-thirds of the LibDem/Tory votes and the LibDems winning a third, in this parallel contest for third place. Again, spot on.
I thought the BBC did very well (no Jeremy Vine!) until the very last bit where they talked over the first half of the winners speech with statistics they they could have given us a few minutes later, and we heard nothing from the defeated Labour candidate.
22. Perhaps for the time being, but in the longer term, Gordon is doomed. Here’s another excerpt from the Guardian’s website:
“The TUC and conference will be a time of reckoning” said one Scottish MP. “I have never once heard the view that the result of Glasgow East would have any effect on Gordon’s position as PM. Gordon’s position is terminal. Without or without Glasgow. We all know that. Gordon will go in October or November.”
27 Likewise After the last Dimbleby/Vine debacle and its ‘accessibility’ it’s good to hear someone pointing at the BBC out the obvious truth that casual viewers aren’t going to be glued to the news channel in the early hours.
John Curtice has just made an intelligent comment. I thought Jon Sopel said earlier that drinking alcohol and smoking [a spliff] was allegedly against al-Beeb protocol.
‘Why would anyone here want to vote Labour’. There was just no reason for them to vote and the Monday Welfare Reform announcement just compounded that for Liebour in a seat with 50% of people on benefits.
Labour are in real trouble now. Been busy with family so not able to follow politics on the internet over the last few days, but got a sneaking feeling that the SNP had done it when I saw a report on the news last night from the constituency. One voter and one comment said it all, they were not voting for a party based on policy, they were voting to send the Labour party a message.
Bad news also for the Libdems, their candidate was actually quite a strong performer in the campaign, but the Libdems are really sliding backwards in Scotland just now, and this result simple confirms what many of us have felt over the last 18 months.
51 - Ah sublime to the ridiculous. From a by-election tonight to being the on-duty Big Brother correspondent tomorrow night. I might be available for a long chat. Hopefully something fun to talk about. Plotting or a VP pick maybe.
Go on Rod, predict the Conservatives having a bad night at the next GE in Scotland. ! I laughed tonight when I heard Professor Curtice’s comments on the Tories in this by election, the local team will be more than happy with this result and their overall reception, and even Michael Crick was surprised and picked up the change of mood towards the Tories in what was an almost no go area for my party.
It’s very interesting but we can’t draw firm conclusions, except…
i) As Curtice says, it will be a two-party dogfight in Scotland next time.
ii) The Tories will be sidelined and make minimal gains, due to the electoral system.
iii) The LD vote share will plummet, but they will hold most or all of their seats, due to the electoral system.
iv) Labour will get many more than 1 seat…
Excellent night, should have had a bet when SNP were at 6.0 but just couldn’t call this.
Looking forward to Nick Palmer explaining this one away.
Two more years of Brown. It’s like waiting for exams to end and the skool holidays to start.No one to challenge him, they are cowards, Harman in charge, sickening.
Re: Turnout. If a significant proportion of the electorate were away becasue of the Glasgow Fair, then in real terms (comparing like-for-like) the turnout was actually HIGHER than the last GE.
59&60.Rod, I would not predict anything just yet for any of the parties at the next GE in Scotland. Honestly, that is how much the mood has changed. And more importantly, that is how volatile things are just now.
“Looking forward to Nick Palmer explaining this one away.”
Well, look forward to this website declining importance. Tory partisans ensure there’s no point in someone like Nick contributing. Then there’s the site owner wirh his bizarre views on the BBC… sad.
As a few people have complimented the BBC’s coverage and in particular Jon Sopel, could I also put in a word for Glen Campbell. He anchored the coverage of the Holyrood election has year and was a breath of fresh air after years and years of Kirsty Wark.
59 You could be right Rod but in 21 months time the SNP may well not be as popular as they are now, Labour could very well be as unpopular and as in March 1974 UK GE the voters in Scotland could go for the third party choice - on tonight’s showing and in UK polling terms that could provide an unexpected bonus for the Conservatives in Scotland.
59 - But a dogfight with the SNP making sweeping gains is a hugely successful outcome for the Tories, surely that is obvious even to the most ardent Brown lover!!
72. True, Labour losses to the SNP in Scotland make it easier for the Tories to emerge as largest party UK-wide. But do we really know which way the SNP would jump in a hung parliament?
68 - Why was it great when every Tory on here was reminded that we’d never win an election again? I think it is unsurprising that Tory posters are bullish when we’ve had about 15 years of being regularly thumped by everyone.
We all welcome Nick’s posts as they offer a Labour perspective and he’s hardly been claiming life is great for Labour. But he’s naturally optimistic as he’s only known Labour success for the past decade plus.
Wereas I am generally pessimistic as my pre-2005 predictions would have proved. I was highly surprised we won some of the seats we did.
But to say that the blog is in decline because of Mike slating the Beeb or Tories cheering is not backed up by the figures. And Our Labour contingent is still tuning in, but it is less tempting to post when you are depressed. Only natural innit?!
59. RodCrosby:
i) As Curtice says, it will be a two-party dogfight in Scotland next time.
ii) The Tories will be sidelined and make minimal gains, due to the electoral system.
There are seven Labour-held seats with the Tories in second place, along with three three-way marginals Lab-LD-Con. There are five LD-held seats where the Tories are in second (though two of them are unquestionably safe).
This wasn’t really a big by-election swing of yore. The SNP are in government and are well ahead in the opinion polls. Tomorrow the English media will make the same mistake of comparing this to the 2005 electionm and look at the size of the swing. It’s not the same. That is the reason why so many people got this wrong. There was no evidence but because so many in London compared this to 2005 instead of 2007 and since it has been compared to the Tories in opposition in England. Not so, the SNP are a popular government and that credibility won them this election. This is no opposition ‘message’ - this is belief in the SNP as a party more than any other element.
The English pack knew nothing about this and the betting, especially late on moved on a Labour win. Those who understand Scottish politics knew that this was no big swing by-election. The dodgy opinion polls backed up these received wisdoms and that informed the betting.
However Mike and others were smart enough to realise that the polls were bad, that the price on the SNP was well above the reality and that anecdotal evidence was very different from ‘expert’ London opinion.
Perhaps now the London media will recognise that the UK is under threat. Scotland is not just very different politically but is off in a different direction. The real message from this by-election is that the united kingdom is past its sell by date.
64 “The Tories hate the Scots, and the Scots know it.”
Rubbish! I am a Conservative and I don’t hate the Scots.
. . . Or “The Welsh”, “The Irish” and so on.
The only people that I have dislike (”Hate” is too strong) are those nasty self-selecting groups. e.g. the BNP, BMW drivers.
71. The conclusion to draw tonight is not hope for the Tories. There has been no evidence that the Cameron factor has has any effect. Rather the Tory vote has held up because of the minority staunch unionist voters who could never countenance voting SNP.
74 - That is a major questions but one I am not sure will matter in the end.
I would tentatively suggest the most likely result at the moment is a medium-sized Tory majority of say 40/50. If Brown is still in power it could edge up further.
But the better Plaid and the SNP poll the more likely a hung parliament becomes. The obvious caveat being that if the Lib Dems are squeezed as the recent elections suggest there might be less change of a hung parliament as they lose seats to the Tories.
78 you are right. labour have crushed the union. its now about when scotland gain independence, not if. the only upside is that we will never have to endure another labour govt.
The Boss hits the nail on the head, as per usual. The voters are turning out to throw the bums out, as a means of sending them a message. Except course for a strong contingent of Labour voters who decided to go fishing as an alternative therapy.
There’s a reference in a George Macdonald Fraser story to a canny Glaswegian who was adverse to lingering in front of strange doorsteps, just in case the inhabitants might happend to drop a Singer sewing machine on yez from the 2nd story.
Think that’s what the voters of Glasgow East did to Gordon Brown and the Labour Party (UK & Scotland) today.
That isn’t thunder you hear: it’s the reaction of Jimmy Maxton and his fellow Clydsiders in the sky. And don’t think it’s directed at the heirs of their former constituents.
77. The electoral system, and residual antipathy to the Tories North of the Border will hobble the Tories’ chances in most of those seats.
Either the SNP will overtake them to win, or a split opposition will save Labour/LD in most of the Tories’ “prospects.”
83 The point is that it’s not just in Glasgow, this is a Scottish phenomenon. The Tories will pick up the votes of the staunch unionists but very few others. This will net them very few, if any, gains in the UK FPTP system. They now have a greater presence in Scotland because of PR but this doesn’t translate to any real progress in GE terms.
Well I didn’t expect that. Biggish financial loss for me - I really didn’t think the SNP would get over 11,000 votes. As the lead says the turnout is the interesting thing from a Labour perspective. Its not the Labour vote staying at home - its a large part of the Labour vote in a solid Labour seat going out of their way to stick it to Labour.
Looks like as in C&N the Labour byelection team was able to get their voters out (despite starting from zero canvassing records)but were overwhelmed by the numbers of people who wanted to vote against Labour/Brown.
Incidentally I hope Nick Palmer reads the riot act to his colleagues in safe seats - whatever you think of his politics he clearly puts in a lot of work in knowing his constituency and it must be galling to be asked to help in a byelection and find no canvassing records at all.
90 Good post. This isn’t just about Brown but the distrust about the whole Labour Party. A Shambles who still believed they had to just turn up to win. Maybe the money isn’t there though to pay party oficials.
89 - But 1 or 2 gains in Scotland, allied to the many many seats they can win in England and Wales, will be quite enough. I’m not predicting Annabel Goldie becoming First Minister in Scotland. I’m predicting David Cameron winning in Westminster.
96 - I’ve been reading but not really had much to contribute. Plus I am looking for a new flat which has been taking up a lot of my time.
Big Brother shifts too involve a lot of writing and not a lot of keeping up with the news!
97 - I don’t think we should abandon Scotland, but we should certainly only look at spending money in selected seats there. We’er so far off the pace in so many seats that you might as well send me up as the candidate as have a decent one
90 - Some Labour voters went fishing but plenty also went to the polls and stuck it to their erstwhile party. No doubt there.
Methinks the reason there were no canvassing records for Labour in Glasgow East, is that there’s been little point to canvassing a place where they (used to) measure the Labour vote not by the bundle but the boatload. Plus of course the lardheaded nature of what calls inself the leadership of Labour in Scotland.
It’s marginal seats that get the canvassing. Which should be an inducement to Labour to canvass everywhere! For if Glasgow East is now a marginal, then there IS no such thing as a safe Labour seat. Sure, many alienated/disgruntled Labourites will “come home” for the general elections. But still, something has been lost.
The Iraq War cost the Labour party the support of millions of mainly middle class voters. Now sure looks like the economic downturn along with sheer Blair-Brown fatigue (and McLeish/McConnell/Alexander fatigue in Scotland) is costing the party the support of millions of working class voters.
This result has some but not that much resonance for English politics. In London the media reckons it understands we Scots better than we understand ouselves. Believe me, this is mostly about voting for an SNP government. If it was an English by-election it would be entirely about voting against a Labour government.
A good result for the SNP…and the Beeb. This is shocking for Labour. In a seat never represented by any other party before, a massive swing against them, and a resounding rejection of the national party against the ruling Scottish government. I think this one will go down as “Where were you when…”
A good result for the BBC. I suspect stock in Jon Sopel has gone up tonight. He had the good balance of knowing humour (the political anorak line was well worked) and didn’t flounder during the re-count. I suspect the next test will be the Euros next year, as a reherseal for the GE.
Laura Ingraham (on Fox News) admits that Britain is moving to the Conservatives, and Bill O’Reilly let it go. Rupert Murdoch must have sent the message…!
Bye-bye Scotland. Would like to say it has been fun, but…..
SNP more than Labour
LD more than Con
Solidarity more than SSP
turnout 30%
All over Croydon, thousands of joyous citizens are dancing and singing in the streets to celebrate the ecstatic news that I got 1 out of 4 predictions correct.
LS,
If the SNP was not a popular government and it won it would have been a protest. It is obvious that the opinion polls putting the SNP well above Labour and being popular in government is moving votes towards the SNP. Most of the swing was won before the 2007 election and that result proves without doubt what I said!
105. So you pick out one of the very few Labour-Tory marginals in Scotland and claim somehow that would be the true test of the SNP’s popularity? Hmmm…I’m struggling with that one.
106. You are falling into a fallacy of “if B follows A, A must have caused B”.
107. Alex’s assertion is that the SNP Holyrood government’s popularity is more important to Westminster by-elections than the Labour Westminster government’s unpopularity.
If that’s true, then the SNP should gain from all three other main parties, even when it is not the top challenger to Labour. If the Labour vote were to collapse, going disproportionally to the Tories, then it would show that Labour’s unpopulatity is more important in Westminster elections than the SNP Holyrood government’s popularity.
I don’t state that Alex’s assertion is false, but this by-election has not proven it to be true - both of the factors whose relative importance we are trying to determine would move votes in the same direction; therefore we cannot say which factor in fact moved them.
Well done PB and especially Easterross. I’ll be collecting my winnings.
On the bigger picture, isn’t the story here quite simple: Labour is unpopular in the middle of its third term and the winner in a by-election is the challenger best placed to supplant them, in this case the SNP. Come 2010 I can’t see anything but a comfortable win for Cameron, with the SNP doing well in Scotland.
My main betting interest is actually the LibDem performance in 2010. I still reckon they will end up with fewer than 35 seats.
catastrophe for labour !
Harman taking over on Monday!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4393707.ece
Reposted from the end of the last thread:
“Labour MPs across Scotland will be quaking in their boots.” - John Mason, from his victory speech.
On-topic: I’m as surprised (and impressed) by the high turnout as anyone. Probably says something about the desire of Glasgow East’s voters to get Labour out…
wahey it’s back! Excellent news tonight!
Pressure on Brown but also now pressure on Clegg. Although I’m sure LDVoice will find a way out for them.
Night night.
Will this go out in the papers tomorrow or is it too late?
Mike are you going to congratulate the BBC on their coverage tonight after being so critical (and rightly so) in the past.
Jeremy Vine should stick to his Radio 2 job
7. Will that be the ‘countryfile’ programme currently on BBC1?
Bye bye Gordon…
Per The Times article:
“Ms Harman is insisting that she is telephoned each night about 10.30pm by the duty press officer at No 10, starting on Sunday, to give her a summary of the next day’s newspapers and to discuss urgent issues. She wants her private secretary and special advisers to be included in a 7.30am conference call, followed by a daily meeting at 9am around the Cabinet table.”
Looks like she’s taking it pretty seriously!
I have to say, I have enjoyed seeing Wee Dougie Alexander on the BBC being beaten with the shitty stick for the past three hours.
6 - It will be in the late editions. Well it better had be or the poor sub working on it now will be mighty pissed off.
9. No, I’m referring to their excellent, license funded coverage freely available on bbc.co.uk.
No it was still bollocks.
When the candidate was making his victory speach that shmukface was talking over him, repeating the results four times!
It was a shocker, schoolboy errors.
10. Actually, if this level of swing was repeated across Scotland, Gordon’s own seat in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath would look vulnerable. Yikes.
Douglas Alexander: “This is not actually about the fate of the government…” Oh really?
Wee Duggie joined the Labour Party in 1982????
How old was he? 9 years old?
well done to the SNP voters in Glasgow for exposing this Nu Lab government as the bunch of self serving plastic Tories that they are.
re 7. Yes -the BBC have done us well tonight
14. Not on bbc.co.uk if you live 1 mile into Eire as I do, apperently I’m not in the correct duristriction
The BBC did a really solid job tonight, and did it with good humour all round. Jon Sopel is clearly just as into this as we are, and that gives the whole endeavour a good foundation. I hope he gets to do the general.
10. No, Gordon will stay. There will be a lot of media talk, but that will be all.
17. he was 15
20. You don’t pay the licence fee though.
Sopel was great tonight.
Looking back at the poll results from the other thread
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/23/whats-the-view-of-pbers-on-glasgow-east/
595 PB.com readers said that the SNP would win versus 589 who said Labour would win - a 49% tie, with the SNP sneaking it. The SNP won a recount and won by 1.4% of the vote. Spot on.
553 (or 60-ish%) said the Tories would come third, versus 34% who said the Lib Dems would come third. The actual result had the Conservatives winning just under two-thirds of the LibDem/Tory votes and the LibDems winning a third, in this parallel contest for third place. Again, spot on.
Rather more respectable than the flip-flopping of the PHI100!
http://www.order-order.com/2008/07/flip-flop-punditry.html
21 - I think we should campaign for Sopel to take over from Dimblebum.
21. ewan: Jon Sopel is clearly just as into this as we are
Agreed. I did like his comment a while back about the only people watching being “real political anoraks”. Guilty as charged!
dougie to lose his seat if that swing is replicated……. deep joy
22. I hope he stays. His remaining as PM, in essence guarantees the Conservatives winning the largest number of seats at the next election.
22. I think he’ll stand down. Johnson is the man everyone’s talking about.
Mike @ 19
I thought the BBC did very well (no Jeremy Vine!) until the very last bit where they talked over the first half of the winners speech with statistics they they could have given us a few minutes later, and we heard nothing from the defeated Labour candidate.
Great night for me too, i am up £225 !!
24. They didn’t give me a refund when I moved so they owe me
31. Curran’s speech is on now.
Labour drop fractionally more than C&N…
I dont think Labour can brush this one off.
Its bad.
Mason hardly being magnanimous in victory shaking his head behind Curran’s speech.
22. Perhaps for the time being, but in the longer term, Gordon is doomed. Here’s another excerpt from the Guardian’s website:
“The TUC and conference will be a time of reckoning” said one Scottish MP. “I have never once heard the view that the result of Glasgow East would have any effect on Gordon’s position as PM. Gordon’s position is terminal. Without or without Glasgow. We all know that. Gordon will go in October or November.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/25/glasgoweast.labour1
A Glasgow kiss for Gordon Brown.
“Inequality is the greatest cause of humankind and is at the heart of labour” - Margaret Curran, victory speech
Yes, she really said it.
36 well she is having a real rant
35. Come on, the swing at Govan 1988 was 11% higher…
33 and the snp candidate just laughing behind her. same old words from a failed labour candidate - poverty, equality etc
the trouble is they do nothing about it…ever….
27 Likewise
After the last Dimbleby/Vine debacle and its ‘accessibility’ it’s good to hear someone pointing at the BBC out the obvious truth that casual viewers aren’t going to be glued to the news channel in the early hours.
The ‘Draft Sopel’ campaign starts here….
Curtis: if the whole of Scotland swung this way, one Labour MP left - in Coatbridge.
Gordon loses his seat!
44, that would be “Curtice”, wouldn’t it?
25: The wisdom of the pb masses!
I actually voted Labour to win, having previously bet on the SNP
John Curtice has just made an intelligent comment. I thought Jon Sopel said earlier that drinking alcohol and smoking [a spliff] was allegedly against al-Beeb protocol.
My thoughts leading up to this were:
‘Why would anyone here want to vote Labour’. There was just no reason for them to vote and the Monday Welfare Reform announcement just compounded that for Liebour in a seat with 50% of people on benefits.
Salmond realy is a class act.
41. I make most monety out of ignoring stats and cuttiong to the core.
Its a bad result.
Curtice: Curtains for Cammo in Caledonia….
7 - of course he won’t! He has his boring anti-BBC agenda to stick to!
35.”I dont think Labour can brush this one off.
Its bad.”
Labour are in real trouble now. Been busy with family so not able to follow politics on the internet over the last few days, but got a sneaking feeling that the SNP had done it when I saw a report on the news last night from the constituency. One voter and one comment said it all, they were not voting for a party based on policy, they were voting to send the Labour party a message.
Bad news also for the Libdems, their candidate was actually quite a strong performer in the campaign, but the Libdems are really sliding backwards in Scotland just now, and this result simple confirms what many of us have felt over the last 18 months.
51 yes they might have more mps than labour…….. what a predictable and depressing comment
51 - Ah sublime to the ridiculous. From a by-election tonight to being the on-duty Big Brother correspondent tomorrow night. I might be available for a long chat. Hopefully something fun to talk about. Plotting or a VP pick maybe.
Jon Sopel. He’s a villain.
51.”Curtice: Curtains for Cammo in Caledonia….”
Go on Rod, predict the Conservatives having a bad night at the next GE in Scotland. ! I laughed tonight when I heard Professor Curtice’s comments on the Tories in this by election, the local team will be more than happy with this result and their overall reception, and even Michael Crick was surprised and picked up the change of mood towards the Tories in what was an almost no go area for my party.
56 - ?!?!?
It’s very interesting but we can’t draw firm conclusions, except…
i) As Curtice says, it will be a two-party dogfight in Scotland next time.
ii) The Tories will be sidelined and make minimal gains, due to the electoral system.
iii) The LD vote share will plummet, but they will hold most or all of their seats, due to the electoral system.
iv) Labour will get many more than 1 seat…
57. Depends what you call a bad night. I confidently predict the Tories will at least double their representation in Scotland!
Can’t wait for Martin Day to emerge from The Slow Learner’s Class and give us his uneducated view.
I can’t help but be pleased for the SNP. I love Alec Salmond.
60 - Presumably as confident as your large Labour win in GE.
Excellent night, should have had a bet when SNP were at 6.0 but just couldn’t call this.
Looking forward to Nick Palmer explaining this one away.
Two more years of Brown. It’s like waiting for exams to end and the skool holidays to start.No one to challenge him, they are cowards, Harman in charge, sickening.
60 - dream on. The Tories hate the Scots, and the Scots know it.
Re: Turnout. If a significant proportion of the electorate were away becasue of the Glasgow Fair, then in real terms (comparing like-for-like) the turnout was actually HIGHER than the last GE.
59&60.Rod, I would not predict anything just yet for any of the parties at the next GE in Scotland. Honestly, that is how much the mood has changed. And more importantly, that is how volatile things are just now.
Nite all.
64. 2*1 = 2…
62. I’m still expecting a hung parliament…
“Looking forward to Nick Palmer explaining this one away.”
Well, look forward to this website declining importance. Tory partisans ensure there’s no point in someone like Nick contributing. Then there’s the site owner wirh his bizarre views on the BBC… sad.
64.
As a few people have complimented the BBC’s coverage and in particular Jon Sopel, could I also put in a word for Glen Campbell. He anchored the coverage of the Holyrood election has year and was a breath of fresh air after years and years of Kirsty Wark.
59 You could be right Rod but in 21 months time the SNP may well not be as popular as they are now, Labour could very well be as unpopular and as in March 1974 UK GE the voters in Scotland could go for the third party choice - on tonight’s showing and in UK polling terms that could provide an unexpected bonus for the Conservatives in Scotland.
59 - But a dogfight with the SNP making sweeping gains is a hugely successful outcome for the Tories, surely that is obvious even to the most ardent Brown lover!!
The SNP will not beat Cam to No10.
69 - two words: ALAN DUNCAN.
I’ve heard his patter.
72. True, Labour losses to the SNP in Scotland make it easier for the Tories to emerge as largest party UK-wide. But do we really know which way the SNP would jump in a hung parliament?
I’m fortunate to be live in Glasgow and saw things turning when a poll of 200 Celtic supporters went 3:1 for the SNP.
Still very happy to be given odds of 6.8 at 9pm tonight for the SNP on Betfair.
This site does betting and analysis better than anyone but only if you take the whole site’s views.
I’m assuming I’m drinking tonight from the losses of bookies. Great result(for my wallet!)
68 - Why was it great when every Tory on here was reminded that we’d never win an election again? I think it is unsurprising that Tory posters are bullish when we’ve had about 15 years of being regularly thumped by everyone.
We all welcome Nick’s posts as they offer a Labour perspective and he’s hardly been claiming life is great for Labour. But he’s naturally optimistic as he’s only known Labour success for the past decade plus.
Wereas I am generally pessimistic as my pre-2005 predictions would have proved. I was highly surprised we won some of the seats we did.
But to say that the blog is in decline because of Mike slating the Beeb or Tories cheering is not backed up by the figures. And Our Labour contingent is still tuning in, but it is less tempting to post when you are depressed. Only natural innit?!
59. RodCrosby:
i) As Curtice says, it will be a two-party dogfight in Scotland next time.
ii) The Tories will be sidelined and make minimal gains, due to the electoral system.
There are seven Labour-held seats with the Tories in second place, along with three three-way marginals Lab-LD-Con. There are five LD-held seats where the Tories are in second (though two of them are unquestionably safe).
How many gains are “minimal”?
This wasn’t really a big by-election swing of yore. The SNP are in government and are well ahead in the opinion polls. Tomorrow the English media will make the same mistake of comparing this to the 2005 electionm and look at the size of the swing. It’s not the same. That is the reason why so many people got this wrong. There was no evidence but because so many in London compared this to 2005 instead of 2007 and since it has been compared to the Tories in opposition in England. Not so, the SNP are a popular government and that credibility won them this election. This is no opposition ‘message’ - this is belief in the SNP as a party more than any other element.
The English pack knew nothing about this and the betting, especially late on moved on a Labour win. Those who understand Scottish politics knew that this was no big swing by-election. The dodgy opinion polls backed up these received wisdoms and that informed the betting.
However Mike and others were smart enough to realise that the polls were bad, that the price on the SNP was well above the reality and that anecdotal evidence was very different from ‘expert’ London opinion.
Perhaps now the London media will recognise that the UK is under threat. Scotland is not just very different politically but is off in a different direction. The real message from this by-election is that the united kingdom is past its sell by date.
Slainte
64 “The Tories hate the Scots, and the Scots know it.”
Rubbish! I am a Conservative and I don’t hate the Scots.
. . . Or “The Welsh”, “The Irish” and so on.
The only people that I have dislike (”Hate” is too strong) are those nasty self-selecting groups. e.g. the BNP, BMW drivers.
71. The conclusion to draw tonight is not hope for the Tories. There has been no evidence that the Cameron factor has has any effect. Rather the Tory vote has held up because of the minority staunch unionist voters who could never countenance voting SNP.
Bookies must have made a mint on this taking late and dumb money on Lab write up until shop closing time at short odds.
Watch the GE spreads tomorrow.
74 - That is a major questions but one I am not sure will matter in the end.
I would tentatively suggest the most likely result at the moment is a medium-sized Tory majority of say 40/50. If Brown is still in power it could edge up further.
But the better Plaid and the SNP poll the more likely a hung parliament becomes. The obvious caveat being that if the Lib Dems are squeezed as the recent elections suggest there might be less change of a hung parliament as they lose seats to the Tories.
80 - There is no hope for the Tories in central Glasgow. I concur but don’t know why that comforts the anti-Tories.
Good Night All.
What will chill the blood most of all. the turn out. only a few points down for a by election in the middle of the glasgow fair.
You don’t get that unless people are really really angry.
78 you are right. labour have crushed the union. its now about when scotland gain independence, not if. the only upside is that we will never have to endure another labour govt.
good luck to the scots
71. But the Tories got 33% in Scotland in Feb 1974, and a couple of seats went the “wrong” way as a result.
The Tories will be lucky to get half that vote in 2010, and there is little scope for unexpected gains.
Face it, the Tories have been in decline in Scotland for over 50 years, and it’s terminal.
The corpse may twitch in 2010, but that’s about the best the Tories can hope for…
The Boss hits the nail on the head, as per usual. The voters are turning out to throw the bums out, as a means of sending them a message. Except course for a strong contingent of Labour voters who decided to go fishing as an alternative therapy.
There’s a reference in a George Macdonald Fraser story to a canny Glaswegian who was adverse to lingering in front of strange doorsteps, just in case the inhabitants might happend to drop a Singer sewing machine on yez from the 2nd story.
Think that’s what the voters of Glasgow East did to Gordon Brown and the Labour Party (UK & Scotland) today.
That isn’t thunder you hear: it’s the reaction of Jimmy Maxton and his fellow Clydsiders in the sky. And don’t think it’s directed at the heirs of their former constituents.
77. The electoral system, and residual antipathy to the Tories North of the Border will hobble the Tories’ chances in most of those seats.
Either the SNP will overtake them to win, or a split opposition will save Labour/LD in most of the Tories’ “prospects.”
Expect 1 or 2 Tory gains.
83 The point is that it’s not just in Glasgow, this is a Scottish phenomenon. The Tories will pick up the votes of the staunch unionists but very few others. This will net them very few, if any, gains in the UK FPTP system. They now have a greater presence in Scotland because of PR but this doesn’t translate to any real progress in GE terms.
Well I didn’t expect that. Biggish financial loss for me - I really didn’t think the SNP would get over 11,000 votes. As the lead says the turnout is the interesting thing from a Labour perspective. Its not the Labour vote staying at home - its a large part of the Labour vote in a solid Labour seat going out of their way to stick it to Labour.
Looks like as in C&N the Labour byelection team was able to get their voters out (despite starting from zero canvassing records)but were overwhelmed by the numbers of people who wanted to vote against Labour/Brown.
Incidentally I hope Nick Palmer reads the riot act to his colleagues in safe seats - whatever you think of his politics he clearly puts in a lot of work in knowing his constituency and it must be galling to be asked to help in a byelection and find no canvassing records at all.
In Scotland, the SNP is in tacit electoral alliance with the UK Tories, just as in Quebec the BQ has the same relationship with the Canadian Tories.’
After all, politics does make for strange bedfellows. Just ask the frontbench of any party!
90 Good post. This isn’t just about Brown but the distrust about the whole Labour Party. A Shambles who still believed they had to just turn up to win. Maybe the money isn’t there though to pay party oficials.
91. But in terms of votes, the alliance is with the LDs, as we saw tonight. Expect both parties to do better than UNS predicts, as a consequence…
89. Yes, but where does the unionist ex-Labour vote go? Some to the SNP no doubt, but what about the rest?
89 - But 1 or 2 gains in Scotland, allied to the many many seats they can win in England and Wales, will be quite enough. I’m not predicting Annabel Goldie becoming First Minister in Scotland. I’m predicting David Cameron winning in Westminster.
83 Welcome back David - you’ve been away awhile.
95. As I pointed out in a guest article, the Tories should abandon Scotland, and send their activists to the East Midlands…
Nick Palmer will be able to provide anecdotal evidence if this occurs…
96 - I’ve been reading but not really had much to contribute. Plus I am looking for a new flat which has been taking up a lot of my time.
Big Brother shifts too involve a lot of writing and not a lot of keeping up with the news!
97 - I don’t think we should abandon Scotland, but we should certainly only look at spending money in selected seats there. We’er so far off the pace in so many seats that you might as well send me up as the candidate as have a decent one
90 - Some Labour voters went fishing but plenty also went to the polls and stuck it to their erstwhile party. No doubt there.
Methinks the reason there were no canvassing records for Labour in Glasgow East, is that there’s been little point to canvassing a place where they (used to) measure the Labour vote not by the bundle but the boatload. Plus of course the lardheaded nature of what calls inself the leadership of Labour in Scotland.
It’s marginal seats that get the canvassing. Which should be an inducement to Labour to canvass everywhere! For if Glasgow East is now a marginal, then there IS no such thing as a safe Labour seat. Sure, many alienated/disgruntled Labourites will “come home” for the general elections. But still, something has been lost.
The Iraq War cost the Labour party the support of millions of mainly middle class voters. Now sure looks like the economic downturn along with sheer Blair-Brown fatigue (and McLeish/McConnell/Alexander fatigue in Scotland) is costing the party the support of millions of working class voters.
This result has some but not that much resonance for English politics. In London the media reckons it understands we Scots better than we understand ouselves. Believe me, this is mostly about voting for an SNP government. If it was an English by-election it would be entirely about voting against a Labour government.
I understand why you don’t get it though.
A good result for the SNP…and the Beeb. This is shocking for Labour. In a seat never represented by any other party before, a massive swing against them, and a resounding rejection of the national party against the ruling Scottish government. I think this one will go down as “Where were you when…”
A good result for the BBC. I suspect stock in Jon Sopel has gone up tonight. He had the good balance of knowing humour (the political anorak line was well worked) and didn’t flounder during the re-count. I suspect the next test will be the Euros next year, as a reherseal for the GE.
Laura Ingraham (on Fox News) admits that Britain is moving to the Conservatives, and Bill O’Reilly let it go. Rupert Murdoch must have sent the message…!
Bye-bye Scotland. Would like to say it has been fun, but…..
I predicted
SNP more than Labour
LD more than Con
Solidarity more than SSP
turnout 30%
All over Croydon, thousands of joyous citizens are dancing and singing in the streets to celebrate the ecstatic news that I got 1 out of 4 predictions correct.
re 97. Spot on there Rod. Absolutely agree there is almost nothing for the Tories in Scotland
100. Alex in Madrid: Believe me, this is mostly about voting for an SNP government.
Easy to assert, impossible to prove.
A by-election in, say, Renfrewshire East (*) would test it somewhat better.
(*) Nothing against Jim Murphy personally, just an example!
LS,
If the SNP was not a popular government and it won it would have been a protest. It is obvious that the opinion polls putting the SNP well above Labour and being popular in government is moving votes towards the SNP. Most of the swing was won before the 2007 election and that result proves without doubt what I said!
105. So you pick out one of the very few Labour-Tory marginals in Scotland and claim somehow that would be the true test of the SNP’s popularity? Hmmm…I’m struggling with that one.
YO CHECK OUT THIS POST FROM THE PREVIOUS THREAD SOMEONE PREDICTED THE RESULT PERFERCTLY!!!
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/07/23/where-do-the-lib-dems-go-from-here/#comments see 206
Forecast:
SNP 41
LAB 40
Con 9
Lib 5
Oth 5
by Richard Howell July 23rd, 2008 at 9:41 pm
by Richard Howell July 24th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
106. You are falling into a fallacy of “if B follows A, A must have caused B”.
107. Alex’s assertion is that the SNP Holyrood government’s popularity is more important to Westminster by-elections than the Labour Westminster government’s unpopularity.
If that’s true, then the SNP should gain from all three other main parties, even when it is not the top challenger to Labour. If the Labour vote were to collapse, going disproportionally to the Tories, then it would show that Labour’s unpopulatity is more important in Westminster elections than the SNP Holyrood government’s popularity.
I don’t state that Alex’s assertion is false, but this by-election has not proven it to be true - both of the factors whose relative importance we are trying to determine would move votes in the same direction; therefore we cannot say which factor in fact moved them.
Well done PB and especially Easterross. I’ll be collecting my winnings.
On the bigger picture, isn’t the story here quite simple: Labour is unpopular in the middle of its third term and the winner in a by-election is the challenger best placed to supplant them, in this case the SNP. Come 2010 I can’t see anything but a comfortable win for Cameron, with the SNP doing well in Scotland.
My main betting interest is actually the LibDem performance in 2010. I still reckon they will end up with fewer than 35 seats.