Move over PoliticsHome
July 25th, 2008
The PB community wins the battle of the predictors
Above are the final predictions from Wednesday’s PB online poll on who we thought would win Glasgow East and the Politics Home panel of 100 “insiders” and “experts”.
Notice anything? Without crowing (well only a little bit) this was an overwhelming victory for the site over the PH100 which very much represents received opinion.
We can feel proud this morning.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Do politics home disclose who is on their list of so called “experts” ?
Westminster local concil by-election - ex-blur drummer loses to a 14.1% swing to cons! Itjust keeps getting better:)
Must-read paper on Geopolitics:
Iran consolidates position in West Asia
by Atul Aneja
Within the space of one week in July, Iran recorded two major successes in West Asia. Through skilful diplomacy, it upstaged persistent efforts by Americans to consolidate their influence in two theatres of conflict — Iraq and Lebanon.
http://www.hindu.com/2008/07/25/stories/2008072553091000.htm
2 - Obviously not such a charming man then!
2, really? That isn’t the berk who was on QT a while ago, was it?
2 — Wasn’t that the 2nd time he’s tried running for office? Maybe muggins will get the message now. (Oh, who’m I kidding?! He’s NuLab!)
“You smell that? Do you smell that? Gloating, son. Nothing else in the world smells like that. I love the smell of gloating in the morning.”
The PHI100 “experts” contain a lot of lazy journalists. They do not attempt to understand the polls or lead improvements in polling.
The BBC and Crick are typical of this bunch. The BBC Scotland had the resources to do a proper poll, they did not instead relying on an Englishman (Crick) to wander around interviewing a few jocks who took umbrage whenever he asked them about Brown.
That said the BBC by election programme was better than most they have done this year because it had some people on it who did know the area.
To be fair to Politics Home, the prediction of ‘a narrow Labour majority’ was only just wrong - it wasn’t far from coin-flip territory.
2: The Westminster result was interesting - a Bangladeshi-born candidate for Respect last time wasn’t standing this time, and there was only one Bangladeshi-born candidate this time - the Tory, whose vote went up by almost exactly the same amount. Respect to Tory is a big jump, but there was speculation on the Vote 2008 forum last night that this was a significant factor.
Apparently (according to the BBC ) Gordo is saying that the Govt needs to listen and understand” . I would have thought the message was fairly clear…
9 nice bit of spin Nick.
10. No action then - just listening ? What a dolt.
10 - That is his default bad result statement.
Joanne Cash has that seat (Westminster North) in the bag for the Tories. If you vote Tory at local level you are then used to voting Tory. It’s a great sign for the PPC.
On Labour home they were talking about Smith and Blears losing their seats and somebody said that Blears’ seat was not a marginal. Her majority is 8k. To my mind that is a marginal seat these days.
10. Yes those “people” only vote for their own kind. Nick opens up a new front to steal back some BNP votes.
“Pop quiz.
Pick out the “We Are The World” lyrics vs. Obama speech lines.
A: “We can’t go on pretending day by day that someone, somewhere will soon make a change.”
B: “This is the moment we must help answer the call.”
C: “But if you just believe there’s no way we can fall.”
D. “The world will watch and remember what we do.”
E. “Let us realize that a change can only come when we stand together as one.”
F. “We cannot afford to be divided.”
G. “These now are the walls we must tear down.”
H. “This is the moment when we must come together.”
I. “They’ll know that someone cares, and their lives will be stronger and free.”
Answers, here: http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NTExNDljMTgxYTQ3MTcxM2FkNTBhOTJmNWViZjE5YWY=
14 That would be a great betting market.. How many Labour ministers will lose their seats at the next GE…
You know, gloating just because PH and their ‘panel of experts’ made complete tits of themselves is a bit childish.
Funny though.
Nur nur nur nur nur.
9. But for all the explanations Nick the real problem is that people are sick of Labour and Brown and want change. When it gets to that stage there is almost no chance of going back. The party is done for.
This is the message of the polls, the local elections and the by elections.
18. If PHI 100 wasn’t so self-important this wouldn’t be nearly so enjoyable.
Meanwhile GDP growth for Q2 was only 0.2%
@19:
Ahhh, but you’re forgetting the Broxtowe canvassing…
Congrats to the Nats for eventually sneaking it. I think it confirms that we are now in 1992-97 territory that no Labour seat could be held by them in a by-election and we are into a 1997 style meltdown for Labour next time.
It’s not just about Gordon Brown - a new leader would suffer from exactly the saqme problem - people are angry and tired with a government that has nothing new to say and that’s been in so long that it can’t escape the blame. No party has ever come back from this position. It doesn’t mean that no party can ever come back, but Labour hasn’t the talent, ideas or strategic vision to do so and will be routed in 18 months time.
It rather confirms the devastating private polling I saw yesterday. Any Labour MP with a majority of less than 10,000 should be polishing up their CVs…
re 10/12 surely it needs to take the “right, long term decisions”?
Anyone heard that one today yet, or is McCavity holed up somewhere?
The other point about the PHI100 is that they voted both ways - once for the SNP to win it, then switched to Labour winning it (on the back of the PSO poll I think)
http://www.order-order.com/2008/07/flip-flop-punditry.html
9. It was the difference between winning or losing though, whether that be the seat or a bet (on which point, thankyou SNP).
That round of clapping on Brown arriving at his conference is as bad as IDS’s at that conference(Talk about stage managed). Not sure why they were clapping him, slow hand clap maybe but clap???!!!
If i were Hutton i would resign from the Cabinet and challange.
17 - and what will be the “Were you up for Portillo” moment in the next GE? For me (please God) Hazel Blears!
20. Ouch - recession by Q1 2009.
Last thread 97 - Antifrank (btw, who is the frank you are anti? Or just that you don’t like being frank?? or…?)
Agree that little can be deduced from the Tory and Lib Dem votes last night. In defence of the poor LD vote, I would add that there has hardly been any “core vote” for Liberals or Lib Dems since the War in Glasgow - yes there have been successes like Roy Jenkins, but those were peculiar circumstances. I think Ian Robertson should this morning be taking comfort from all the positive references in the media over the campaign, and put the actual result down to experience, and being there when a second place nationalist is squeezing every vote to attack an unpopular Labour incumbent (been there, done that, Ian - in 1999 in Wales)
Sky say Labour sources blaming John Reid for not helping in Glasgow East. My prediction was correct on the previous thread - Brown does not see himself as the problem but the people on the ground
Brown is like Adolf Hitler in his bunker, marshalling his ghost armies (In Brown’s case it is voters)and blaming them for his failure in leadership.
22 — I’m looking forward to every Labour MP who voted for ID cards being handed their P45 instead. And I hope they’re subjected to a particularly humiliating round of unemployment benefit interviews as well.
Another great evening for PB - many thanks to Stuart Dickson, Easterross and other Scottish posters for updates during the campaign, plus of course Jack W’s ARSE.
How long before one of the PH100 is outed?
I voted for an SNP win and a tory third place, win-win!
19 — no, other explanations are that erstwhile Labour supporters are skint and feel under attack from their own party. Dan@22 is closer imo.
The first means that an economic upswing (perhaps US-led) makes Labour safer (and paradoxically undermines Brown by making his rivals feel the prize is worth the candle).
The second means Labour should stop attacking its own. This makes Purnell’s timing interesting. Labour’s defeat so soon after announcing the policy of punishing the unemployed undermines the Blairite challenge.
22 “It rather confirms the devastating private polling I saw yesterday. Any Labour MP with a majority of less than 10,000 should be polishing up their CVs…|
Dan - hint, hint please! LibDem polling, right, you’re a LibDem?
29 — What would happen if frank and antifrank were ever to meet?!
37 - Mutual particulate annihilation?
27. Nick Clegg in Sheffield Hallam!
10. Mr.Palmer simply doesn’t seem able to face up to the fact that voters of all stripes are rejecting his discredited party at every opportunity - as the result in Scotland clearly shows.
It’s ‘anyone but Labour’ at the ballot box now.
40. I think its more simple than ABL - its Kick Out Brown. Not only the most unpopular PM ever but probably would be voted the most incompetant PM ever.
The ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ relies upon a diverse crowd. This might explain why the more eclectic PB contributorship outperformed PH’s experts.
32. That’s not very nice - even if you think them misguided in their voting patterns. It is not good to wish anyone unemployed - they can do useful work elsewhere.
Clearly this site has a horde of political anoraks, and punters some of whom are MPs or former political candidates; others fall into the category of ‘active’ supporters; some posters are journalists, lawyers, novelists, lecturers, teachers and post graduate students. Some of this information has been freely given.
There are quite a few posters who have degrees, or pre-dumbed down A levels. The erudition of PBers is impressive be it on Ancient or Modern History, Global Warming, Crunched Credit or just simply politics. It may be that the site has attracted a host of talented posters who are more than a match for the self proclaimed great and good from Politics Home.
PH 100 losers, losers, losers. You guys took one hell of a beating, continued on post 597.
34. Me to and i voted twice!
Sir Michael White in the Guardian saying that the high turnout is the killer for Brown - people actively leaving sofas to boot him out. He’s got a valid point for once..
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/07/michael_whites_political_blog_209.html
45. Did you forget to enter the ‘free holiday draw’?
There is an important point here. When people put their own money at stake, they look into the matter according to how they best perceive their chances of making money for themselves. The so-called experts are more interested in reputation than money, so select the herd option rather than be seen as the wildebeest exposed to predatory scorn. That is why the most popular option on the PHI survey is so overwhelmingly dominant. As on this occasion, it doesn’t necessarily mean that it is right.
20. 29. And re. the GDP figures, the outcome would have been even lower if it were not for an unusually large - and probably erratic - quarterly jump in transport and communications output. The final number for Q2 could well be revised down to 0.1% or even 0%, and Q3 is likely to be worse still.
Details of the data show recession is already here for industry and construction and very nearly so for distribution and business services. And with an early recovery most unlikely, Brown’s nightmare can only get scarier still.
@42:
You say ‘eclectic’, I say ‘deranged’. Let’s call the whole thing off.
47.
Never enter those!
30 - I’m not anti-anyone. The explanation behind my name is too tedious for words, and is very very vaguely work-related.
Bon gioooorrrrrrrnio!
lolololololololololololololol. Crikey, I thought Labour would do terribly, but just sneak it. But a defeat?? In the fifth safest Scottish seat???? I did predict a Tory third spot, but that hardly makes me Nostradumus. Or even Rogerdamus.
What now for the Hapless Gord? He is catastrophic. Whatever the opposite of catnip-to-the-voters, that’s him. He repels them. He repels everyone. Politically speaking, he is the horrible stuff that gathers at the top of old ketchup bottles in
roadside caffs near Galashiels.
So what will they do?
For the first time ever, I think it is now more likely than not that Labour will ditch him. Unless they want to actually self-destruct as a party, the only hope is to dump The Tractor Fella, have a proper leadership election, than call a GE within a few weeks: they have to be honest and open with the voters.
They must also hope that a nice fresh face - maybe someone totally unexpected, like ED Miliband - will emerge unexpectedly (a la Cameron) from these elections. This person might at least give them some likeability, enabling them to go down to modest defeat rather than a potentially fatal rout.
That is their only hope. Will the Stupidest Party in Britain realise this? I think they must, surely. Their only hope of preventing a Generation in Opposition (or actual oblivion) is to show some humility, change leader, and call a GE.
I reckon its now narrowly odds on for Gordo to be gone by 2009.
Politicalbetting.com > Politics Home “Panel of Experts”.
pwned, as I believe the youngsters say
As for Glesga East, the thing that strikes me is that it doesn’t seem too big a shock - at times it was like listening to reports from a marginal, what with phrases like “on a knife edge”.
This is Glesga East FFS. It’s the equivalent of the Lib Dems overturning K&C, and we all know the wall-to-wall coverage that would receive
Good Sky News now say the Tories will demand a GE if the PM is changed. This is exactly the right strategy. Boxes Labour into keeping Brown
@53:
Jon Cruddas. They know it makes sense.
@55:
Martin, we’d actually quite like a general election right now, if it’s okay with you. Wiping the floor with the legendary Brown Bottom will be a thing of joy.
October/November time will be great, thank Gordon.
53 A few months yet I think. The logic that the daggers will only be drawn when it looks like things may just be improving slightly for a new man to capitalise on has the ring of truth.
57.
No doubt Brown will Blame Blair! 
Confession time: I thought Labour would edge it - largely pessimism having bet on Mason and given my atrocious track record in 2008 by-elections - and when offered a competition vote I had Labour retaining by four figures to offset my SNP betting on Betfair. Everything pointed to a narrow SNP win on the day, but I just couldn’t see it not going wrong!
Sincere thanks to Stuart Dickson, Easterross, Am Balach, Marcia, Iain, Nick Palmer, and everyone else who reported from the ground and gave us a truly comprehensive understanding of the seat from early on. Too many to mentioned, but there were tens of posters who contributed to what I think was the most detailed by-election coverage ever.
Kudos to Jack W’s ARSE, and to the as ever sage advice from Our Genial Host, and congrats to all of you who made more than the modest sum I managed to accumulate.
Interesting how perception is everything. Gordo has Tony Blair’s picture at the top of the staircase to haunt him. When DC becomes PM, he will have Gordon’s……..
57 “October/November time will be great, thank Gordon.”
The dark nights won’t matter. The voters have already made their minds up that they don’t want Labour (probably ever again) so canvassing can be kept to a minimum…. Turnout will be huge and crushing for Labour.
And we can get to recant on the Euro-constitution. Yay!
36 - yes and yes.
Excellent piece my Michael White in the Guardian:
“Public opinion has been hit by three things it worries about most, the price of money (mortgages and loans), the price of petrol and the price of food.”
The uncomfortable fact for Brown is that he is not to blame for any of these things yet the electorate seem intent in giving him a good kicking anyway. That Brown is, in many ways, far preferable to Blair has been lost. He can`t recover from this.
53 - I think this might be over-doing it. Whilst Brown does seem like electoral poison in England, I don’t think this is true north of the border.
Obviously, anecdotal disclaimer here, but talking to some folk I actually got almost a hint of sympathy for the man. The problem is Labour itself. People actually turned out to deliver the trademark Glasgow kiss not to the man, but to the party. They’re sick of the whole crew.
If I were a Labour MP, tempted to think “what the hell, it can’t get worse - let’s get rid of him”, I’d ponder that long and hard. Unless the party can turn its own popular perception round, getting rid of Gordon - particularly if it turned messy - might be even worse than keeping him.
64. Gordon is indeed responsible for the price of mortgages and loans - if he hadn’t fuelled the fire of a boom paid for on credit the banks wouldn’t be pulling up the drawbridge now.
It is all his fault.
Well another successful by election for me on the betting. Thanks to those 365 votes, and some good info/advice on here, I am now a whole £5 richer! (I was all green, would have got £1.20 on Labour)
64 - Erm, Brown is at least partially to blame for the price of money being out of control.
Many have disagreed with me when I say that this result has important implications for the Con to LD dynamic. I mean that this result confirms the story which has been running since May 1. Firstly where the LDs put in little effort they are being heavily beaten by the Cons. But, even where they are putting in effort, C&N and Henley they are being beaten by the Cons. This is a new narrative and the 10% of the electorate in Glasgow East who aren’t part of the Lab to SNP narrative are behaving exactly the same as their counterparts in England.
This must have strong implications for the LDs simply because they hold proportionately more Scottish seats than English ones.
And when I said on the last thread that RodCrosby had suggested the Cons might win three seats in Scotland I mean 1 hold and two gains, sorry. But, I do think that the dynamic from this result will be enough to add another one to this list.
63 well without obviously discussing LD position can you summarise what it says for Brown?
eg - is Labour down everywhere in England inc. the north?
good potential for LD gains from Lab?
tell us what you can!
63 And you feel that you can limit the Conservative adance against you and really advance against Labour or not. Which is it.
Animal, you are Michael Crick and I claim my Clydesdale fiver…
69 ‘But, I do think that the dynamic from this result will be enough to add another one to this list.’ - Which one then.
64. Yes, but Brown got Credit for things he did not do as well, so it is swings and round-a-bouts. Indeed cost of money could be traced back to his regulatory disaster, food price increases - lack of CAG reform/set aside, price of oil he has taxed too much - if Labour had not wasted so much cash on nil-utility projects like the NHS information system £12BN and counting maybe they would have more leyway. Brown is at fault and so is his Labour party.
The Government have created a mess by not leaving themselves with sufficient leyway to adopt new strategies as problems arise. That is incomptent government as contigency planning and resources are a gold standard in Government benchmarks.
This afternoon the Prime Minister is expected to confirm that the Government’s next manifesto will promise free school meals for all four million primary school pupils in England.
Thank heavens for that ,I think Gord will now be safe for the foreseeable future and I will “buy” Labour seats.
The fightback has begun.
My estimate of the turnout was a little low because I fell for the SNP line that Scotland is ‘different’.
Well, last night one part of Scotland proved it has the same views of the Labour government as the rest of the UK. The benefiting party was different but the move from Labour was in the same order as C and N.
Stupid Brighton Labour MP on BBC said the Tories lost Christchurch then won the next election!So it can be turned round!
The next election was 1997!
EDF have just put my ‘leccie up by 17% today. Nick Palmer is on holiday, so it must be my - a consumer - fault.
Nick forget playing Diplomacy. Surely you have even more expertise at Risk?
65. No, but you slightly miss my point. Losing Glasgow East for Labour is like Pol Pot losing Phnom Penh (north-east), it’s so seismic it’s revolutionary.
Extrapolate this result nationwide and Labour are headed for an absolutely crushing disaster, with maybe fewer than 200 MPs, maybe fewer than 100.
Fewer than 100??!! It sounds incredible, but these things do happen. Check the Tories in Canada.
So it literally cannot get any worse than this. That must be on the minds of many Labour MPs today. Even if they have a grotesquely mismanaged election, in which Harriet Harman does a moonie out of her battlebus and Ed Balls accidentally demands the repatriation of pikeys in his victory speech, the worst that can happen is they face electoral oblivion under a rubbish leader. Derrr…
That’s the math. Labour are doomed to oblivion under Brown. They have a slight chance of avoiding oblivion under anyone else.
What’s more, a recession is looming. This is precisely the right time to hand over the poisoned chalice.
But, as I say, Labour are the Smuggest as well as the Stupidest Party. They may yet convince themselves the people love them, if only they can get their 628th relaunch just right. And so they will
march across the Flanders fields, donkeys led by cockroaches.
Only 365 votes - it is amazing what a difference a few votes either way can make. Today would be completely different if it had been 365 in favour of Labour.
That better organisation (the SNP campaign was compared to previous Lib Dem campaigns) accounts for the victory is obvious. But there is also reluctance of the voters to accept the current Labour message of “Gordon has been wonderful for 10 years, he is only one who can get us out of this mess”. I am afraid the voters blame Gordon for not seeing the mess coming and doing something to stop it happening. This may be unfair but there it is.
Without changing Gordon there doesn’t seem to be much hope for Labour at the next General Election. The worry must be for them that there may not be any even if they do change leader.
Yes, well done all to the PB.com crowd who showed again that they are more in tune with reality than cliques of self-appointed “experts”. The old guard just still dont get it that they are no longer any more informed than just a group of random punters…and probably they never were but now the truth is out.
Martin Day: “Good Sky News now say the Tories will demand a GE if the PM is changed. This is exactly the right strategy. Boxes Labour into keeping Brown”
…First sensible thing you’ve ever posted on PB!
28. “Were you up for Darling?”
66. And he kept us out of the eurozone, where interest rates are lower and the stronger currency protects the consumer against the rising price of fuel and food imports.
69. Yes, the Tories could now win Edinburgh SW, if they try, - East Renfrewshire and Dumfries and Galloway should be their 2 ‘certain’ gains.
70 - Labour are totally screwed and are heading for a 1997 style meltdown, mainly because of people’s economic confidence. So there will be lots of opportunities for the Lib Dems to pick up Labour seats (some quite safe ones too).
Obviously if people start feeling better about their position it may change - but given time is running out and economic conditions are unlikely to pick up a lot in the short term then Brown will be faced with going to the country at the bottom of the market with the vast majority of the electorate angry with his government’s performance.
What could Labour do? Firstly they need to find a Chancellor who inspires some sort of confidence from the public. They need to stop taking ‘initiatives’/relaunching and take a back seat while events play out and people get on with their jobs.
They need to end grandiouse projects that are pissing public money up the wall - ID cards is one (I’d cancel the Olympics - but it’s probably too far gone) and try to get some money back in people’s pockets. They need to get a grip on MPs expenses and start expelling those who appear to be on the take.
But there’s no sign Labour are capable of doing any of that because they just can’t resist tinkering.
81.
83 thanks Dan
77 - To be fair, the Tories did indeed win the 1997 election – in Christchurch. Results elsewhere however meant that this resounding victory was, erm, somewhat futile… If giving Glasgow East back to Labour is all it takes to get rid of Broon, then let them have it!
83 - The point about the Olympics is that it *is* too far gone, and there’s nothing the IOC could do about it if we decided to stage it at Walthamstow Dog Track and Neasden Leisure Centre. So massive cutbacks could start now.
82 And he kept us out of the eurozone, where interest rates are lower and the stronger currency protects the consumer against the rising price of fuel and food imports. - On the flip side we’d have had our credit boom magnified by a factor of ten and be enjoying the sort of pain that Spain is now going through.
64. Rising fuel costs
See Benny Peiser at
http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=541948
Meanwhile not all plain sailing for Boris:
London’s Oyster card network was shut down today for the second time in two weeks due to technical problems.
28 “Were you up for Balls?” would be my favoured election refrain.
74 (and 66/68). I am not disagreeing with you that Labour is incompetent. I absolutely agree. Brown`s sale of our gold reserves is a good example. What I am saying is that Labour`s incompetence stretches way back to before Brown became leader, yet Blair`s popularity largely remained intact. My point is that this is personality politics - pure and simple. The electorate - egged on by the media - have decided that they do not like the cut of his jib.
There are many reasons not to vote labour, but disliking Brown is not one of them. It is on a par with not voting for Hague because is is bald or Foot because of his dress sense. The sad fact is that, for many voters, this is as far as their political analysis goes. This is why I feel sorry for Brown.
If GB captains the ship right to the bitter end, what’s to say he won’t go down too, along with 90% of the Cabinet?
I bet the good folk of Kirkcaldy are as sick (or embarrassed) of their local son as the rest of the nation.
Labour are well and truly painted into a corner. They won’t have to go to the country if they change leader but the new guy would have such a poisoned chalice who the hell would want it?
A caretaker PM in Alan Johnson is surely their only hope - one of the few senior Labour MPs I actually like, I think he would be warmly received and would patch together much of the battered Labour coalition of voters, and might take Labour to a narrow defeat clearing the way for Milliband to take the reins in opposition and capitalise on the unpopular decisions Cameron and Osborne will unfortunately have to take. With Broon, they are surely f…ed.
87 - I like!
88. But Spain had the good sense to
a) Ensure that the ‘conduits’ (SIVs?) were treated as on-balance-sheet, so they didn’t have any; and
b) Until last year, run a budget surplus so they have room to stimulate the economy.
90 — What’ll happen when the UK’s ID card system shuts down, particularly given that Labour will have made it impossible to do anything without it?
95. They’ll need it the property market fuelled by rampant corruption resulting in overbuilding in the South is crashing and unemployment is way higher than here. In any case running a budget surplus has little to do with ECB barring the theoretical stability pact. So with us it would simply have ramped everything up further.
90 - How much are these Oyster card shutdowns costing London? It must be millions?
Wonder if it’s related to the Oyster card ‘hack’ which was recently published on the Web?
87. A very appealing thought. Perhaps we can have Brown et al. sweeping the track before each event as a penance as well.
#90.Are you Boris bashing? The oyster card problems are not of his making. True, TFL may have something to do with it; there are still too many leftovers from Ken’s regime in that body. Boris should deal with this quickly.
P.S. Boris should do better without that Nick Boles around his neck.:)
@98:
I suspect that it’s a result of Oyster Orbiting HQ attempting to patch the readers before the exploit becomes public, and the patch not being properly tested.
97. Do you think it would be any different for Spain outside the euro? It doesn’t stop incompetent governments being elected - just one less thing for them to get wrong.
Martin Kettle for once writes a very astute precis of the implications for Labour of the by-election. I don’t agree with everything he says, but the thrust is surely right:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/jul/25/glasgoweast.labour
75.
This from the SNP website highlights the hatred many Scots(amongst others) had for Maggie Thatcher and Gord’s mistakes in getting pally with her.
2008-07-23
Commenting on official statements that were released last night by the UK Government, and which show that Gordon Brown gifted silverware worth over £140 to Margaret Thatcher at the time of her visit to Number 10 Downing Street, the SNP’s Westminster leader Angus Robertson said it was an enormous blunder by the Prime Minister on the eve of the Glasgow East by-election.
Mr Robertson said:
“Folk in Glasgow East would dearly love the chance to give Margaret Thatcher a piece of their mind - yet Gordon Brown gives her a piece of expensive silverware! What extraordinary conduct by a Labour Prime Minister - nothing better illustrates how out of touch Labour are.
First free school meals for all primary school children and I will apply pressure for a manifesto commitment for free school milk as well.
This will put to rest the legacy of the “Milk Snatcher” as Maggie Thatcher was lovingly known as.
London’s Oyster card network was shut down today for the second time in two weeks due to technical problems.
The problem, like last week’s glitch, is thought to be down to incorrect data being sent out by Transport for London’s (TfL) contractor, Transys
102 Yes in degree of pain. As you say wouldn’t have prevented it but it exacerbates it as it would for us.
Did the Lib Dems lose their deposit last night?
90 Technical problems? Bet someone’s managed to crack it.
Congratulations Mike!
Well done the collective wisdom of PBers!
Bloody good show SNP!
Right, that’s Glasgow done - what’s next?
Is there a You Gov this weekend?
Cons above 50% maybe?
surely the only way that labour will be wiped out at the next election is if the lib dems can up their game. If they decide to fight labour and are a credible alternative in the north then they could easily beat current expectations. Imagine if they chose to use the maggie brown image across specific areas the day of polling like the snp - they could clean up.
Congrats to Stuart Dickson and all of the SNP. They worked their socks off to win this.
OK time to put my tin hat on. I confidently predicted a LAB HOLD in this seat three weeks ago. I still believed at start of play yesterday that they would just about hold it but that the SNP were fantastic value. My average price for them was 4.58 until I went “bawdeep” at 1am. Thanks to those who gave me 6.6 and 6.8 for the SNP at 8pm yesterday. Much appreciated.
My view now is that Scottish LAB has been bashed but hasn’t had a “doing”. Looking at the numbers in the cold light of day I’d say only about 3000 LAB voters actually switched to the SNP. Tactical voting though is alive and well in Glasgow with the Lib Dems and some Tories holding their metaphorical noses and voting SNP.
What is evident is that there is still a core of Labour voter in Scotland but their votes will not be taken for granted any longer. The local organisation was a shambles and I suspect David Marshall will be moving house pretty soon before the local Labour Taliban does a Najibullah on him, banknotes and all.
It is the end for Brown and more importantly for the Scottish Labour Party, his political machine. Wendy has gone and I think the forthcoming leadership election (in Scotland) should act as a bloodletting ad air the real issues facing the Scottish people. I hope that a less confrontational approach to the SNP is taken.
Now to go and find a market for the next Scottish Labour leader. Curranfor me. (Margaret that is)
I pointed out how such media echo chambers were useless a while ago, the H&H attitude was indicative, all they do is reinforce their own rightness or wrongness.
What it is useful for is to see when and how they are wrong.
103 — why does Kettle wonder if a male candidate might have done better?
104 re Thatcher: precisely. No-one ever voted Labour out of love for Mrs Thatcher.
23 On the old boundaries a loss of all <10000 majorities would be 238 seats gone! 108 remaining.
111 see 103.
16 - Got them 100% correct, that’s what you get for actually listening to a speech rather than the spin surrounding it.
111 - It would say a lot about Scottish Labour if they were prepared to elect as leader someone who couldn’t even hold a safe seat from the SNP in her own backyard. Surely Scottish Labour will want to send off a more positive message than this?
107: “Did the Lib Dems lose their deposit last night?”
A paltry 3.5% acc to the graphic on an earlier thread. So presumably yes.
Has Neil Clegg quit yet?
114 and on the spectator site Peter Hoskins gives these figures for the leadership contenders:
Jack Straw: 8,009
James Purnell: 8,348
Alan Johnson: 9.450
Ed Balls: 10,002
David Miliband: 12,312
119. Sorry, “Nick” I meant. What was I thinking…
117. Scottish leader should be one with top 3 largest majorities surely ?
#107. The Lib-Dems were practically wiped out in Moscow - sorry Glasgow last night.
why do I get the names of these two cities mixed up?
re 80 I am afraid the voters blame Gordon for not seeing the mess coming and doing something to stop it happening. This may be unfair but there it is.
Icarus this is entirely fair and Gordon is to blame.
82 Alan J “And he kept us out of the eurozone, where interest rates are lower and the stronger currency protects the consumer against the rising price of fuel and food imports.”
You are mistaken but logical. That is what should be happening but it is not.
Fuel is at the same price as the UK more or less despite the collapse of the pound against the Euro, and in the south food prices are in line with the Daily Mirror story of a few days ago.
Some of this is down to what appear to be the semi-cartels between retailers, where prices from supermarket to supermarket, retailer to retailer, seem remarkably the same.
The real retail competition and flexibility is largely not there in the south, and and it is less than strong in the other ’social markets’ of France and Germany.
Tony Benn, interviewed on BBC News 24 earlier (the subject, of course, being Gordon Brown):
[i]“If I went to the doctor and said ‘I’ve got a problem’ and the doctor said ‘I’ve got a vision’ then I would ask for another doctor”[/i]
How many Scottish Tory MPs were there from 1979 to 1997? I suspect that when Cameron wins in 2010 he will not have anything like the same number. What then for the Union, when Scotland will be governed by a party with just a taxiful of Scottish MPs. Do any of the bookies have odds on potential dates for Scottish independence?
126. However the Scottish parliment lances that boil.
(PS - damn formatting tags! What are they if they’re not the traditional BBcode square brackets?)
126 - The Tories were in double figures right the way to 1997. They will be doing astonishingly well if they get close to that in 2010 (though bear in mind that there are now fewer Scottish seats than there used to be).
Congrats to everyone at PB, not just for the spot-on predictions, but the insightful and friendly discussions in the comments over the past few weeks. Well done everyone!
I think “” is what is required but a list of available formats would help!
Interesting snippet from Keven Maguire of the Mirror
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/maguire/2008/07/gordon-browns-glasgow-kiss.html
“Nice touch of David Cameron to call for a General Election after the Prime Minister’s summer holiday, the Tory leader posing as a kindly executioner allowng a condemned man one last hearty meal with his family.
Alex Salmond’s SNP earthquake is shattering for Brown and a contest Labour hoped would stop the rot has left its leader on a political life support machine…
What’s amazing is Labour failed to see the SNP victory coming and were predicting a Brown triumph on the morning of the poll, the first wobble detected in the afternoon. If Brown was a lucky Chancellor he’s an unlucky Premierm And after the run he’s had, he must have killed more than one black cat. He glumluy prediced something was bound to go wrong in Glasgow East and he was correct.”
127 - Or alternatively provides a platform and rallying point for an SNP-led push for independence. Imagine it – Westminster tries to impose some legislation or other on Scotland (poll tax??); Scottish Parliament passes resolution condemning it and demanding independence; Westminster refuses a referendum; Edinburgh holds one anyway; etc etc.
Wound show greater or less than symbols - confused - I am!
128 the same but use instead of []
Bit sadistic on a day when papers are full of articles saying Des Browne will be dropped in September reshuffle to send him onto the airwaves to defend Brown the “outstandingly the best quality politicians tolead us through the current circumstances”
128/130 – It’s standard html tags, use instead of square brackets.
Use instead of [ and ]
I see that the Daily Mirror political correspondant - whats his name? - Kevin something or other has gone into hiding today.
Not a murmer. I bet his crying into his boots; if he hasn’t flogged them on Ebay.
Sorry eddie you need greater or less than symbols Shift , and shift . on my keyboard
GRRRRR
OK, use what you get when you press shift and hold down this key . and this key ,
…use pointy brackets instead of square brackets (”SHIFT + ,” and “SHIFT + .”)
138 weathercock see 131!
131. nothing in the paper though.
The UK is heading for split up. The SNP will become the largest party in Scotland in both Westminster MPs and MSPs in Holyrood. England is turning towards nationalism too. What are the odds of the first English Nationalist MP to be elected at the next GE?
Labour losing Glasgow East is like the Tories losing Kensington and Chelsea!! Labour is now heading into the political abyss.
Kellner on Sky: Labour MPs shouldn’t panic, the SNP usually get these sort of swings…
Probably true. The Labour drop in vote share of 19% wasn’t fatal, by historical standards, and LibDem tactical voting carried the SNP over the line, just…
Neither C&N or Glasgow East are truly earth-shattering upsets. Both Labour and the Tories have seen significantly worse results in the past.
Comparisons with John Major are just not supported by the results, so far… Brown is more in the range of Callaghan’s results 1974-9.
I’m still of the view that the swing next time will be closer to 5% than 10%, meaning a hung parliament rather than a 3-figure Tory majority..
But Labour are looking at perhaps 10 losses to the SNP in Scotland next time… They should pray that there isn’t another Scottish by-election before the GE…
re 125 Eddie you need angle barckets not square ones
@146:
“Comparisons with John Major are just not supported by the results, so far… Brown is more in the range of Callaghan’s results 1974-9.”
You really know how to make Labour feel better, don’t you?
145. ‘What are the odds of the first English Nationalist MP to be elected at the next GE?’
About the same as those of Max Mosely being canonized.
“I’m still of the view that the swing next time will be closer to 5% than 10%, meaning a hung parliament rather than a 3-figure Tory majority..”
This because you are anti-Tory nutter, your mind addled by your love of the Nazis.
127 - John, I think it’s unlikely to happen that way round (although it should always be remembered that Westminster does retain the power to legislate for Scotland on devolved issues).
It’s more likely that the SNP will chafe against some division of devolved/reserved areas and so the push will be initiated as a result of the Scottish Government, not the UK Government.
This assumes that the UK Government doesn’t act in a stupid and provocative way that you describe, which admittedly does always remain a possibility.
146. Good luck with the hung parliment bet - I thought they were laughed out of sight circa 2006 ?
115. Yes a good article by Kettle.
It’s lamentable jut how little good analysis was done in the lead up to yesterday. The organisation of the SNP for example and the lack of any recent Labour canvass. Why was this not commented on earlier?
The people of the East End can hold their heads up high today. When many (including many on his board) were lamenting them for being workshy and feckless, they got on with their WORKING lives.
The Glasgow Fair was an irrelevance because the workforce has moved on. When commentators mentioned how quiet the streets were in the afternoon, did it ever strike them that people were actually at work?
145; you mean BNP rather than ENP? Good chance of one in the milltowns of Northern England.
146; LOL. Good chance of at least one Scottish by-election in the forseeable future.
146 - You are admirably consistent in the face of widespread disagreement with your thesis. If you are right, you will have bragging rights for the whole of the next term. The key word in that sentence, of course, is “If”.
Thanks for the formatting lesson. Didn’t expect it to be HTML. Noted for future reference
re 146 but isn’t there a moribund Scottish Labour MP?
The ‘take it on the chin’ tactic looks evermore like the best option for labour; change leader, call a quick election, lose and bequeath a poor economic situation that has yet to bottom out.
On the other hand the inertia gripping labour could have them walking into a massive election loss. White said there were three things affecting labour, not true (add in Iraq/civil liberties/crime and so on), but the three things he mentions would be instrumental in turning a defeat into a massive defeat.
Who saw this screencapture at Iain Dale’s Diary…?
Hysterical!
http://bp0.blogger.com/_z5hT1P0X79c/SIka5ZPg8zI/AAAAAAAACBI/r93tNLcvJ9s/s1600-h/Glasgow+East+Election.jpg
146
Taken as isolated events, your comments are true.
Taken as a trend - along withe the opinion polls… bigger and bigger swings against Labour.
Trends continue until they are stopped by either an internal event (Gordon leaves) or outside events (the Conservatives split dramatically and fatally)..
Personally I expect Labour to poll under 20% before the trend turns.
I have followed politics for over 40 years: the current Government look the most incompetent and media unfriendly since…. Sir alec Douglas Hume. (sp?).
I think you are an optimist.
Well done our SNP neighbours! From the swing I calculate a Conservative majority of 60 next election (not too far from Boulton) made up of 355 Conservative, 182 Labour, 59 Lib Dems, 23 SNP, 9 Democratic Unionists, 8 Plaid Cymru, 5 Sinn Fein, 3 Respect, 3 SDLP, 2 Independant, 1 Ulster Unionist. This doesn’t seem as large a majority as the poll suggest but is in line with Boultons Sky News analysis. I reckon the Lib Dems will hold 11 Tory target seats and the SNP will keep 3 Tory target seats. I think the Conservatives will need to increase its margin over the Lib Dems to achieve a landslide.
157. Yes, apparently so, and that seat would be a gonner in a by-election..
157; 1 moribund. Down from the ‘feeble 50′.
161 Sean are you an English Nat like me or are you a Tory who supports independence?
161 Sean thanks for that which 11 Tory target seats do you see the LibDems holding..?
160. Alec was just before my time, but I doubt if he was as unpopular as Thatcher in 1981 and 1990, or the Tories generally 1993-96…
It’s simply not borne out by the stats…
157. There is no other kind of Scottish Labour MP.