What will be the impact of South Ossetia?
August 9th, 2008
What are the significant implications for US and UK foreign policy?
You could be forgiven for not being immediately familiar with the small mountain region of South Ossetia, and its capital Tskhinvali. Few people last week could have correctly identified it as (legally, at least) a province of Georgia, and fewer still would have known that its comparitively-peaceable sister region North Ossetia remained a part of the Russian Federation.
The two provinces consider themselves to be a single ethnolinguistic entity, and dispute Georgia’s claims to ownership of the Southern aspect of Ossetia. The Russians have long recognised the semi-autonomy of the region, and even allows the Cossacks to police their own region, as long as they do not act contrary to the activities of Russian law enforcement. Georgia’s insistence on its territorial integrity, supported by the Americans, means that it has fought skirmishes with South Ossetians, requiring Russian peacekeeping troops to maintain a ceasefire.
Under the cover of the Olympics, with Vladimir Putin abroad, Georgia moved its military into South Ossetia, taking the capital. Russia has responded, it says to protect its peacekeepers and citizens who are identified as Russian, and has driven the Georgian army out of the capital and is bombing deeper inside the former Soviet Republic. The UN Security Council has held two emergency meetings, but cannot agree language to demand a cease to the fighting. With many world leaders in China for the Olympics, or on holiday, this does not look like being resolved quickly, except by force.
This conflict could be significant for a number of reasons. Georgia is extremely keen to become a member of NATO - a position supported in principle by the US, with France and Germany the staunchest advocates against her admission. Russia is understandably opposed, seeing this as evidence that NATO is still strategically a means of chaining the Great Bear. Continental Europe lives in fear that angering Putin or Medvedev could have a detrimental effect on oil and gas supplies from the East. Russia is concerned that a broader alliance of NATO and former Soviet-bloc countries would threaten its growing presence on the global stage. It is worth noting that had Georgia already been admitted to NATO, then that organisation (including the US and UK) would be forced to help Georgia repel the Russian incursion into South Ossetia. How such a scenario might play out is beyond me.
The wider issue is that the international community has no agreed framework for the independence demands of small ‘nations’. This means that each case is taken on its merits, or rather is judged in terms of politics by each country adjudicating, which can lead to inconsistency. The US supports the integrity of Georgia’s borders, including keeping South Ossetia, and yet was an out-spoken advocate of Kosovan independence. One can only speculate on how the people of Grozny feel when they hear the Kremlin talk about the sovereign rights of the people of Ossetia to be autonomous.
In the US, most of the foreign policy questions for the candidates to take a position upon have centred (understandably) around Iraq and Israel/Palestine. If this conflict continues into the autumn, then both candidates will need to formulate complex yet saleable positions on how to deal with everything from perceived Russian aggression to the US support for small independence movements to reform of the United Nations Security Council. Conventional wisdom holds that all discussion of things military and overseas benefits John McCain, and there may be an ‘unreconstructed Cold Warrior’ vote that could be harnessed with more aggressive rhetoric against the Kremlin. Conversely, Obama may be seen as a leader more likely to pacify Russia’s militaristic tendencies, and to bring the international community along with him. Most American’s might prefer the Republican view of UN reform, but then any discussion that invoves the difficult names of former Warsaw Pact capital cities is perhaps not liekly to be as welcome for McCain’s campaign, given his recent mentions of ‘Czechoslovakia’ and ‘President Putin of Germany’.
In the UK, this will only intensify the spotlight on Foreign Secretary David Miliband, whose tenure at the FCO has been comparitively quiet when compared to his predecessors. The extent to which Gordon Brown wishes to deal with this crisis personally (as a world leader, or just to spite his likely-rival for the leadership) will be another key consideration.
We might not have known much of South Ossetia last week, but being a Presidential election year in the US (and maybe less than a year from a General Election in the UK), the conflict in this small mountain region could well have much broader consequences.
Morus
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One of the consequences will surely be the effect on oil prices, as Georgia is right in the middle of the Caspian oil region.
Has there been any comment from our government at all?
3 - 2 hrs ago, FCO issued travel advice, and recommended not going to a war zone. Britain supports Georgia’s territorial integrity.
Nothing from the PM or Foreign Sec.
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5g2VbAbhhYQ8hAyvMLGsacipzTCOw
Georgia saying “2,000 dead” and Russia targeted the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan_pipeline
but missed…
Mind you some of the Russian equipment is 50 years old. Nato collectively has the resources to contain any Russian threat - worry is how will it contain this Russian aggression.
One wonders how long the International Community can continue with the double-standards with regards to “small nationhood”.
Kosovo - western nations falling over themselves to congratulate this act of self-determination
Kurdistan, Chechnya, South Ossetia, Turkish Cyprus - big large super-huge block of silence.
The difference betwen Kosova on the one hand and South Ossetia (Alania) and Abhazia on the other is that in Kosova, the Serbian population was less than 10%. In the Georgian provinces the population was majority Georgian in Abhazia and close to it in South Ossetia. Georgia has undeniable claims, and has long ago committed itself to retining the autonomy of the provinces (again in contrast to Serbia). Indeed the only reason why things are as they are is becuase Russian troops control the two provinces and have prevented negotiations from taking place. As late as last year senior Abkhaz leaders were saying that they were willing to accep the two-state solution proposed by Tbilisi, but this was vetoed by Putin.
The reported invasion of Abhazia by Russia in the last 24 hours probably means the end for the puppet government there and the long feared formal annexation by Russia may now take place.
The strategic sigificance of Georgia is that it is the only way to get Caspian and Central Asian oil out to the West without passing through Russia (or, worse, Iran). This is a crticial situation, and it is now quite clear that this is a systematic, long planned attack by Russia against Georgia.
This is our Rhineland moment- if we miss this, then our position is drastically weakened, and in the face of continued defiance by the Kremlin, the stakes could well increase to the point were it leads to general war.
Russia has attacked Poti, Gori and other cities outside the immeiate conflict zone, it has killed Georgian civilians. These are acts of war. Since it is quite clear that the Russian Army is not a neutral peacekeeper, they should leave all Georgian teritory forthwith. The International community has to take on this situation immediately. The democratically elected govenment in Tbilisi deserves far more support than the tyrant in the Kremlin.
Cicero posted this at the end of the last thread:
“I disagree- I think it is the failure to be more positive about future Georgian NATO membership that has effectively given a green light for the Russian attack. As Kennan and others would say, we need to contain the would-be expansionist power- and that does not mean slinking away apologetically. In any event despite this current situation, the oil price bubble still looks to have burst. Russia faces some nasty problems and this contempt for the international comunity should, indeed must, have nasty consequences for them. Russia has deliberately formented instability in several of its neighbours: not just Georgia, but Moldova, Takistan and it tried it on, but failed, in Ukraine. These are the actions of a rogue state, not any kind of responsible power.
by Cicero August 9th, 2008 at 2:55 pm edit comment “
I disagreed with Russia in its interference with Ukraine, but this seems a different kettle of fish.
I would be concerned about admitting any new members of NATO who might force a conflict between the US/UK and Russia through their own internal grievances.
Cicero, I bow to your clearly superior understanding of this conflict, but is Georgia itself really at risk of being invaded?
Also, I wouldn’t necessarily side with Georgia because of the democratic deficit - Russian democracy is not what it should be, but there can be n doubt that Russians overwhelmingly supported Putin and Medvedev over other candidates.
Is Russia really in the wrong here?
[8] The grievances are not internal- they are the result of Russian intervention, by leaving Georgia out, we have invited this agression. It is like saying in 1949, that Germany could not join NATO until it sorts out the “internal problem” of East Germany.
[9] Morus, it has already been invaded- that is why Russian troops control South Ossetia (Alania) and Abhazia. The attacks on Poti and Gori are acts of war way beyond any so-called peace-keeping operation.
The Russian response is a huge escalation with one aim in mind: to overthrow Saakhasvili and install a complient regime in Tbilis, thus gaining total control over Western access to the Caspian and Central Asian oil fields. If, as is reported, that it is true that the BTC pipeline has been bombed, then the response from the West should be as forceful as possible, short of outright war.
Re: 8 Cicero/Morus
Cicero’s comment that Russia is a rogue state because it “has deliberately formented instability in several of its neighbours” is interesting as countries usually want stability on their borders, not trouble. hence Stalin wanting to control a “buffer zone” of Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary etc. against the Germans/USA/UK
This is clearly still to do with countries wrenching themselves away from Russian influence and instead, looking towards the West. Did anyone else notice that the Georgian President gave his press conference last night surrounded by by a phalanx of EU flags, as well as Georgian ones, and they aren’t even EU members.
Cicero, interesting posts. When you say, “the international community has to take on this situation immediately”, what specifically do you think the international community should do?
10 - But South Ossetia would want parallel autonomy whether Russia stepped in or not, wouldn’t they? The fact that they are being emboldened by Russian support helps of course, but this is barely a land grab given the autonomy Russia affords North Ossetia, is it?
These are questions not arguments - I’m eager to learn more about this.
14 - You’ve actually largely answered my points in your post at 11
12 That is an interesting observation.
13 - They can, and will, do nothing. The UNSC can’t even agree language of a statement. They won’t act against a permanent member.
9. Russia attacking towns outside of South Ossetia? How can they possibly be in the right?
Look at Latvia.
A majority of the population there are non-national, and the majority of those are Russians.
It must be said, though, that the Western powers have been utterly two-faced about self-determination.
12. It depends on their aims. Hitler hardly encouraged stability in the Sudetenland, did he? Regimes only want stability on their borders if they want to maintain the status quo. If they want to change things, they manufacture a crisis.
17. How about we ask the Chechens about Russia’s consistency, rather than having the usual knock at the West? We have been inconsistent sometimes, but nowhere near as appallingly self-interested as the Russians.
6. But there’s more to each issue than just self-determination, there are the ramifications for the region. Forcing Kosovo to be part of Serbia would have been far more disastrous long term.
19 - The way that Russia ‘dealt with’ Chechnya made me realise that they should not be given any encouraging words from the West.
Russia bullying its neighbours yet agian. This will have very little impact on UK politics, as Brown will do everything in his power to remain uninvolved, despite an ally being in trouble. It will be more interesting to hear Obama’s views on the conflict as he is yet to be convincing on foreign affairs, though having watched Fox news a bit this morning, this conflict was not getting a huge amount of coverage.
22 - Strange that those who complain about Obama fatigue are the same ones who try and twist every issue so that the focus is on him.
Fox are probably having a crash course on pronunciation as we speak and, until they are forwarded the talking points from the Whitehouse, they will be strangely muted.
16. Absolutely. Bombing civilians unnecessarily is a war crime.
17. Latvia has a (small) Latvian majority, and many of its non-Latvian inhabitants are quite happy to be independent. Of course, the Latvian majority would be rather bigger had so many of them not been deported by Stalin.
17. War is a messy business, Russia will want to teach Georgia a harsh lesson.
It is hard to know who started all this but it seems to have been the Georgians a the moment. May be they just gambled that if they moved quickly enough they could estabish control over the region before Russian could react. If so they have seriously miscaculated.
My knowledge of recent Georgian history isn’t great but I seems to remember that there was another russian leaning semi-autonomous region which they sucessfully reintegrated into their country a little while ago. (With some military force) So may be their gamble was as silly as it may now look.
Many of these new states which emerged out of the Soviet Union have large russian minorities which still look to ‘Mother Russia’ whilst the Ukrainians, Georgians and Baltic states look towards the west. In some cases the Russian minorities can find themselves discriminated against as they were in the Baltic states.
22. Well the focus is on Obama. He is in all liklihood going to be the next US President so his views are pretty important.
Re: Socrates @ 18
Indeed, you are right regarding the Sudetenland, but then the Third Reich wanted to annex it, so the “rogue state” label applies here too.
Perhaps I should have qualified my comment by stating that countries “normaly” want stability on their borders, unless they are intending territorial expansion. Instability can also result in territorial loss rather than gain, and/or loss of face, as ultimately happened with Germany and the Sudetenland.
I’m getting the feeling that beneath all the misinformation, lies etc that are coming out that Georgia has made a mistake. I can understand their anger about Russian involvement with the separatists/double standards regarding Chechneya, but the South Ossetians should have been offered independence like Kosovo. This would not threaten Georgia’s Caspian sea pipeline.
Europe needs to wake up and become less dependent on Russian energy. Of course in Britain we’ve seen the decline in the coal industry (wonder if Maggie preffred Scargill to Putin?) and a contemptible failure to develop renewables despite having the assets.
3.”FCO issued travel advice, and recommended not going to a war zone.” !!!!
[17] What on earth are you talking about? The majority of the population of Latvia is Latvian, and before WWII and large scale resettlement by the country by Russian speakers (and the exile of murder of 30% of Latvians), the population was about 80%, and the biggest minorities were German and Jewish, not Russian.
[13] What the West can do is to “internationalise” the conflicts, insisting on UN or OSCE mandates for Peacekeepers and ask the Russians to withdraw. The fact that a formal state of war now exists, means that there is a full legal process available- and Russia can face automatic sanctions, irrespective of her security council seat.
I found the BBC didn’t explain the situation very well at all. I had no knowledge of this before and watched BBC news for over an hour, only learning that russia was fighting georgia.
Putin arrives in North Ossetia. Unrest in Abkhazia….
7.”The strategic sigificance of Georgia is that it is the only way to get Caspian and Central Asian oil out to the West without passing through Russia (or, worse, Iran). This is a crticial situation, and it is now quite clear that this is a systematic, long planned attack by Russia against Georgia.”
Cicero, thanks for your excellent posts on this subject. I think you are spot on with your analysis, and this strategy by Russia has been a long time in the planning. IIRC, Liam Fox warned us about this long term scenario a while ago in a speech he gave to the Conservative Conference.
The irony that Putin and Russia, rather than the middle East might end up holding Europe to ransom over long term oil and gas supplies is not lost on me. Back when the West stood back and initially looked on as Yugoslavia tore itself apart I heard someone remark, “well there is no oil in that country”.
This time, the situation is very different because of that fact, the stakes are very high.
30. Yet in Kosovo and Iraq the US, UK etc went their own way ignoring the UN and international law. Ignoring the rights and wrongs of the “West’s” actions in these cases it will have greatly diminished their authority and credibility in persuading Russia and the international community that Russia must be forced to abide by international law.
http://apnews.myway.com/image/20080809/OLY_Bush.sff_CHGH113_20080809014918.html?date=20080809&docid=D92EQ1S02
I really can’t think of an appropriate headline to this!
RCP has a couple of good links:
How Georgia Fell Into Its Enemies’ Trap - Edward Lucas, Times of London
The War That Russia Wants - Svante Cornell, The Guardian
Kremlin Determined to Break Georgia’s Will - Ralph Peters, New York Post
Georgia Should Have Stepped Back - Anne Applebaum, Washington Post
http://realclearpolitics.com/
dont worry….. des browne is now on sky tv. that’ll solve it.
28 The Georgians offered both South Ossetia and Abkhazia a large degree of autonomy. Neither region has large ethnic Russian populations and Russia’s offer of citizenship to the inhabitants was a part of Russias destabilization activity. Russia could also have been concerned that North Ossetia might have wanted greater union with an autonomous South Ossetia - better that hapened inside Russia.
It was a mistake on the part of the Georgian’s to start armed hostilities, better to have continued pressure through diplomatic means. Georgia would have been strengthened had the possibility of NATO membership not been quashed by Angela Merkel’s clumsy diplomacy - Georgia could have settled for Russian withdrawal from the two troublespots in return for Georgian neutrality (with Georgia having possible EU membership in return).
28.”Europe needs to wake up and become less dependent on Russian energy. Of course in Britain we’ve seen the decline in the coal industry (wonder if Maggie preffred Scargill to Putin?) and a contemptible failure to develop renewables despite having the assets.”
Our coal industry was losing money and holding government’s to ransom at that time, the timing of North Sea Oil going on line was the key.
You might also note that Brown’s taxation policies have damaged the continued development of the North Sea oil and gas industry.
From Drudge
WAR: Russian jets targeted major oil pipeline…
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L9618164.htm
“Russian fighter jets targeted the the major Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline which carries oil to the West from Asia but missed, Georgia’s Economic Development Minister Ekaterina Sharashidze said on Saturday. “
From Cicero — very interesting… and a little bit scary:
“The strategic sigificance of Georgia is that it is the only way to get Caspian and Central Asian oil out to the West without passing through Russia (or, worse, Iran). This is a crticial situation, and it is now quite clear that this is a systematic, long planned attack by Russia against Georgia.”
….
“The Russian response is a huge escalation with one aim in mind: to overthrow Saakhasvili and install a complient regime in Tbilis, thus gaining total control over Western access to the Caspian and Central Asian oil fields. If, as is reported, that it is true that the BTC pipeline has been bombed, then the response from the West should be as forceful as possible, short of outright war.”
BP Plc Says Georgian Conflict Hasn’t Affected Production in Country
Bloomberg - 38 minutes ago
““The pipeline we have running across Georgia doesn’t go near the conflict.” Bayatly did not know how many barrels of oil the pipeline pumps through the country a day.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=autXPT_XgO6Y&refer=uk
However…
“… a fire that’s closed the company’s Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan oil pipeline in eastern Turkey is still burning. “
Anyone think the UK has hade a mistake by plundering through it’s North Sea Oil and Gas so quickly? Should we have been exporting so much. Helped Thacher/Major/Blair/Brown look like they were doing a better job on the economy than they actually were, but long term? Primary energy production accounts for 10% of our GDP, a point very rarely made by Thatcherites or Blairites. Was there a concern that the Scots would finally cotton on and want independence, so it better be go out sharpish?
Still, I’d prefer dealing with PM Salmond than Putin and his cronies.
42.”BP Plc Says Georgian Conflict Hasn’t Affected Production in Country”
But hasn’t the concerns over the instability of the area’s where there is major pipelines been one of the reasons driving oil prices up among many other important factors?
The pipeline
“A U.S.-backed oil pipeline runs through Georgia, allowing the West to reduce its reliance on Middle Eastern oil while bypassing Russia and Iran. ….
The pipeline that crosses Georgia can pump slightly more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, or more than 1 percent of the world’s daily crude output. The 1,100-mile pipeline carries oil from Azerbaijan’s Caspian Sea fields, estimated to hold the world’s third-largest reserves. Its potential vulnerability was already in the spotlight after it was sabotaged this week, apparently by Kurdish separatists.
Most of the oil is bound for Western Europe, ….”
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D92EBCNG4.htm
Georgia team may pull out of Olympics..
US delegation on its way to Georgia..
44.”Primary energy production accounts for 10% of our GDP, a point very rarely made by Thatcherites or Blairites. Was there a concern that the Scots would finally cotton on and want independence, so it better be go out sharpish?”
Frank, BBC Scotland did an excellent programme not long ago which covered not only the history, but more importantly, the future of the North Sea oil and gas industry in Scotland. I don’t think it was aired down South, it should have been though, because it would have speared quite a few myths I regularly see being posted on political blogs.
Perhaps a realistic “solution” would be to let Putin have his two precious republics full of “Russian citizens” and to make Georgia a member of NATO at the same time? It seems to me what he really wants it Georgia. Following this, he would be forced to keep his hands off of Georgia or risk a serious confrontation with NATO. At the same time, he could save his face, claim victory, and have the Russians celebrate him as the protector of Russian citizens.
It cannot but remind one of the 1930’s policies of the Nazis, though. Inevitably, it will also make life that much harder for Russian minorities along the border. After all, they will be (perhaps rightly) seen as Putin’s Fifth Column.
Time for the EU to increase cooperation with the Ukraine.
48. Any chance you could enlighten me on some of those myths? I was just speculating. My brother works up there in the oil business, but I know little about it all myself.
Gordon Brown is hobbled by the strategic mistakes of Tony Blair. I spent a lot of time travelling in the region and the reputation of the UK is at an all time low. This may not be entirely fair but the image of Blair as George Bush’s poddle is widespread. There is very little that the UK can do in this situation and so the reality is that it will do nothing.
There is no doubt that the UK will need to develop a new international policy that accepts the changing world. The country still has an important voice if nothing else by being the largest exporter of weapons in the world. I doubt this will happen though until Cameron takes over.
On a slightly different point. Reading the Investors Chronicle it has examined all previous housing crashes and forecasts that this one will last for between 4 and 6 years with a drop of around 30%. As such Alistair Darling has absolutely zero chance of turning the economy around before the next election.
44 I gather the major problem in UK is lack of gas storage and the UK remains a nett exporter of gas - summer production is exported making Britain reliant of imports in winter. UK should hold a strategic reserve.
16 - I wouldn’t necessarily say that put them in the wrong. We bombed Serbia to get the Serbians out of Kosovo, and I didn’t completely oppose that. If it were the case that this was initiated by Georgia as the Russians claim, then I could understand that Russia would want more than a return to the status quo.
I should say that I really don’t have strong views on this, because I don’t know the situation well enough. I’m very grateful to people on here for elucidating the conflict and the particulars of its significance.
I’m aware of the narrative of Russia acting as a bully towards its neighbours, but my initial impression was that this was perhaps a little less obviously a case of that, though you have largely conviced me that this was perhaps naive.
I would re-iterate, however, that I certainly don’t think Russia is beyond rehabilitating, and would like to see it as a democratic, full-responsible leading country in the international community. I would be concerned if this were to lead to full-scale war and a lost chance of new alliances being forged by new leaders simply because we misunderstood what is, at present, a fairly ocntained conflict.
51. ‘The largest exporter of weapons in the world’ - is that us?
This is very very very serious….
Russian officials said the death toll now stood at 2,000 and 30,000 refugees from South Ossetia had fled to Russia over the past 36 hours.
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/home/9619511.asp?gid=244&sz=95849
50.Frank, Ted answers some of them @ 52.
But the BBC programme also highlighted the fact that technology being developed and used by companies based in Aberdeen have already broken the glass ceiling on the percentage of oil that can be extracted from our older fields.
Georgia’s interest is to have independent energy transit
http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n148800
““Georgia’s interest is to have independent from Russia energy transit, former Bulgarian ambassador in Russia said in an interview with FOCUS News Agency. He said that besides the sanctions and the embargo upon Georgia the country has gained a lot of money thanks to the energy transit. That makes Georgia relatively independent country.
“Probably this had made some people angry but, like in Caucasus, the military decisions don’t bring stability.”
German minister says Georgia ‘breaking international law by launching military action to reclaim South Ossetia ‘
http://www.focus-fen.net/index.php?id=n148799
54 I’ve seen that quoted in articles in Guardian, Independent and elsewhere but it looks like a fallacy - http://yearbook2008.sipri.org/files/SIPRIYB08summary.pdf
Most sources indicate UK is fourth, well behind the USA, behind Russia and France, and closely followed by Israel.
The late (Great) Frank Johnson of The Spectator, always said August, far from being a quiet month, was one of the most dangerous of the year- both World Wars, Israel/Lebanon etc. spring to mind.
Coincidence? or lots of leaders on holiday?
How is China going to react to events in Georgia and Russia over shadowing their long planned Olympic extravaganza?
58 Germany continues to be Putin’s friend in Nato and the EU, well “friend” is probably wrong but oil & gas dependency has replaced Ostpolitik in making them over-eager to forgive Russia.
America (with Britain poodling along) went into Iraq to secure oil supplies. WMD’s were just a flimsy pretext that was shown to be that well before an American bomb was dropped or a boot put on the ground in that country. We set the precedent. Okay, says, Putin -so we can play that game too. Georgia is being invaded to ensure the safety of Russian passport holders. Nothing to do with Russia’s energy (pipeline) security. You got a problem with that? Because if you have, BP can waive goodbye to its investments in TNK-BP (see the recent harrassment that has forced all BP staff to leave); and if you piss me off any more, then you can stop worrying about those winter fuel bills - because I will cut off your gas, like I cut it off to Ukraine.
The Georgians stupidly reacted to a situation the Russians have been engineering for years. It gave the Russians enough pretext for intervening - as intended. This is simply the latest move in the Great Game. You are dealing here with chess players - they think six moves ahead.
Sell BP. Buy warm winter clothing.
61 — by “urging Russia, Georgia to respect Olympic Truce”
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/world/story.html?id=7e7543c1-0334-4186-b7ee-a030315c7c5d
In short Russia intend to use this to push back Georgia from ossetia, even more than the practically autonomous state that its been.
The West should waste no effort supporting the Georgians on the quiet. Its old cold war tactics but the Russians are at it so take them on.
To lighten the heavy mood - Derby County = LibDems!
62. According to on-the-ground journalists, the trouble in South Ossetia started in February as a direct result of the EU recognising Kosovo. Putin said what’s good for the EU is good for Russia (in effect), and that he would proceed to assist the breakaway provinces that wanted to remain loyal to Russia, such as South Ossetia in Georgia.
Merkel’s friendship of Putin did not stretch as far as containing EU expansion into Kosovo as requested by Putin. Putin made it quite plain that there would be military consequences. EU arrogance is now being met with some significant resistance at last.
Putin will demonstrate that while Germany and France are yellow bellies that will not accept casualties, Russia will accept them and will use its military power to put the EU and NATO back in their place.
Why they have strayed into this mess in the first place takes some understanding. They mistakenly assumed Russia was still weak as it was five years ago. Some mistake. It’s time the EU learned to listen to others - whether they be powerless Irish peasants or powerful military neighbours. It will save a lot of bother all round.
Breaking News - “Foreign Secretary David Miliband said: “The UK will be discussing with all our partners how to stop the spread of violence and secure a ceasefire.”
That’ll sort it out.
I wouldn’t put your trust in everything the the Georgians are saying vis the Russians.
They did start this fight by attacking the South Ossetian enclave in the early hours of Friday morning, with major force. Dont tell me that launching Katushias, not a weapon of accuracy, on the town, was not going to cause civilian casualities.
I’m by no way supporting the Russians in this, having been stirring this pot for a long time.
Anyway the Georgian women are hairy.
Isn’t it comforting to know that the leader of the British Ditherment is on top of the escalating problems in Georgia:
“The prime minister was at the opening day of the Edinburgh Book Festival - where he was interviewed by crime writer Ian Rankin.
In a wide-ranging discussion, he spoke about domestic and global problems as well as his own work as an author.
Along with political works Mr Brown has written a book called Courage about great figures such as Nelson Mandela.
Mr Brown said he had written Courage: Eight Portraits, which is about famous role models, to encourage more people to follow their example.”
Wow!!
69 Weathercock, when commenting on matters Georgian, you should perhaps consider changing your username to Snowcock?
http://www.birdguides.com/species/species.asp?sp=035055
BBC reporting that a quarter of estate agents have reported sales actually falling through this past week due to uncertainty on stamp duty. 90% say the situation is hurting the market.
72.No surprise at that news.
Morus the coffee house blog has linked to your article.
What price oil?
“As Morus writes in an excellent post over at Political Betting”
This is one of those cases where there will be much international tut-tutting, wringing of hands, calls for ceasefires etc.
Let’s get real, shall we? There’s not the slightest thing that the UK can do. There’s nothing much that the US can do. This is firmly in the Russian ’sphere of influence’ and we’re not exactly going to risk nuclear war over it, are we?
It would have been foolish indeed to admit Georgia to NATO precisely because that would only be sensible if, in the last resort, NATO countries were willing to defend it. They are not.
Yes, Russia is behaving extremely badly in this and many other ways. It’s part of a pattern. (I sold most of my shares in BP a few weeks ago because it is quite clear that the 25% or so of their production which comes from TNK-BP is at risk.)
All that Western governments can do is gradually reduce dependency on Russia. Businesses will, I think, draw their own conclusions and stop investing there. Over the long term, that might have some effect.
But Miliband and Brown can do nothing whatsoever in the short term. Getting whoever is the duty officer in the Foreign Office to issue the standard blurb (’..note with concern.. urge all sides to exercise restraint.. call for urgent talks.. blah blah’) is the right, indeed only, thing to do.
Sorry to sound cynical, but realpolitik hasn’t gone away, and never will.
74. Well done and well deserved Morus.
Completely OT…. Does anyone know anything about rowing? Australia are 4.8 on Betfair to win the coxless fours. I watched the heats today and that seems a very generous price. The British weren’t that impressive. What am I missing?
test
Talk of a poll on Sky, showing Tories 20% ahead. Anyone know?
Why is this question being asked here…? Are we to open a book on the expected death-count.
Morus, you show a complete lack of knowledge about the Caucusus. It maybe the fault of our English fore-fathers. The near-East was always promoted ahead of the problems of Tsarism-versus-Ottomans (Crimean War excepted).
Anyhoos - and I like the Northern colloquialism - new poll showing Labour still 20% behind. Brown is up to his neck in it, the Brown stuff that is…!
80 “Morus, you show a complete lack of knowledge about the Caucusus.”
Okay then - enlighten us. Where do you disagree?
71. No it’s true Georgian women are more hairy than their other European counterparts.
74/75 - Cheers both
79 - I wouldn’t deny that this is not my area of expertise, but I didn’t realise that I had *shown* my complete lack of knowledge. Could you show me where I have been ignorant? I will happily update the piece if a mistake has been made.
The question is being asked for two reasons -
a) There is no betting on this, and nor do I expect there to be, but its prominence as a news story means it could have a massive impact on the US and UK Election markets. The articles are designed to start discussions.
b) Because Mike suggested it should be covered.
34. That is a good point. The Russians will have looked at Kosovo and concluded that ‘might makes right’ and the aggressive disciplining of ‘errant’ border states by major powers are acceptable to the EU and US - so why not for Russia too?
68. In that case why did Britain (along with America) block a UN proposed statement saying that the situation is South Ossetia must not be settled by force - yesterday - as reported by Al Jazeera but not the BBC?
Britain and America want Georgia to fight against Russia, is the only possible conclusion. We really are acting like a bunch of idiots - or at least Miliband is, with Britain acting as the EU’s mouthpiece.
Haven’t the EU done enough to destabilise relations with Russia, acting in cahoots with George Bush? What’s the point? Do the US or the EU want a war with Russia?
81. Me thinks you have a naughty fettish there!
82. Me thinks you have a naughty fettish there!
SNP-commissioned YouGov poll just out 2 minutes ago
http://www.snp.org/node/14141
I see that our Great Leader hasn’t opened his mouth to declaim his view’s, (and hence the government’s), on the Georgian situation, while attending the Edinburgh Book Fair.
He did however, talk about, “our broken society”, piusly claiming there ain’t such a thing, and we all live in a “decent society”. Tell that to the next knife or gun victim lying in the gutter.
The stamp duty dither does seem to have had effects in the real world:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7551490.stm
77…trust your eyes and bet like a man.
87. Dear Martin, Cross my heart; there is a district in Tiblisi, where the female sex is prone to very hairy legs. It’s a fact. No fetish needed.
Where is this Sky Poll?
#81
Had it not been for the Great Game we may have paid attention to the Caucusus. The ethnic and religious conundrums make the Balkans look relitively homogeneous.
We can - if we wish - blame the Ottomans. They tried to force the Christians - most notably the Circursians [sp?] - into Islam. The result was hatred, rebellion, and sectarian warfare.
Look into the history of the Armenians, Chechens and Ossettian/Alans. Add Ottoman, Persian and Russian imperialism into the mix and things get complicated. Does Beslan not ring any bells…?
85
Look on the bright side, if NATO do go to war over, errr that place that most of us didn’t know existed till yesterday, all of the billions that the taxpayer invested in the, ‘Typhoon’ (Eurofighter)won’t have been wasted afterall.
60. Johnson’s Theory of wars starting August was based on the idea that once the harvest was completed then the men could go off and fight in the sure knowledge that the granaries were full.
94 - Fluffy, this is clearly a topic close to your heart. Can you point out what mistake I have made, so that I can rectify it?
If it’s just that I haven’t written a doctoral thesis, then fine, but if I’ve made a material error of fact, then I really do want to make amends.
#95
And the £1.25 billion spent on a PFI for the six Point-class RoRo’s may make sense. Assuming that the MoD can get them back from the people that our government lent them to…!
7. “The difference betwen Kosova on the one hand and South Ossetia (Alania) and Abhazia on the other is that in Kosova, the Serbian population was less than 10%. In the Georgian provinces the population was majority Georgian in Abhazia and close to it in South Ossetia.”
The Georgian population of South Ossetia is
under 20%. Ossetians account for 70% of the population. This is despite attempts by the Georgian government to cleanse the Ossetian population. South Ossetia should have been unified with North Ossetia, either as an independent Republic or as part of Russia, when Georgia left the Soviet Union.
ISRAELI MILITARY ADVISERS? DID I JUST READ THAT RIGHT? JEEPERS!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1358
Georgian tanks and infantry, aided by Israeli military advisers, captured the capital of breakaway South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, early Friday, Aug. 8, bringing the Georgian-Russian conflict over the province to a military climax.
Cheney you Dick!
88. No voting intention figures, though
#97
No worries. Facile comments about the Southern Caucusus do pee me off. The mixture of Christianity, Islam and Buddhism - together with the intra-tribal tensions - are unique. [Well, unless you consider Sri-Lanka.]
Being a blue-eyed [partial] ethnic Turk (albeit a devout Anglo-Catholic) it amazes [sp?] me how many people are ignorant of the Caucasian peoples. Well, either that or I have read too much into David Thomson’s clasic A-Level tome; Europe Since Napoleon!
101 - Exactly! SNP-commissioned poll shows SNP liked more than most unpopular government ever. Not quite worth its own thread without voting intention figures - I hope Stuart can forgive me.
For those who missed the link -
http://www.snp.org/node/14141
The YouGov poll was commissioned by the SNP, fieldwork 6-8 August 2008, sample 1,028
1. THINKING ABOUT THE PERFORMANCES OF GORDON BROWN AS PRIME MINISTER AND ALEX SALMOND AS FIRST MINISTER OF SCOTLAND, WHICH ONE DO YOU THINK IS DOING A BETTER JOB?
Alex Salmond: 52%
Gordon Brown: 16%
Neither: 26%
Don’t know: 6%
2. THINKING ABOUT THE PERFORMANCES OF THE UK LABOUR GOVERNMENT AND THE SCOTTISH SNP GOVERNMENT OVER THE PAST YEAR, WHICH DO YOU THINK CARES MOST ABOUT THE NEEDS AND INTERESTS OF YOU AND YOUR FAMILY?
Scottish Government: 52%
UK Government: 16%
Neither: 24%
Don’t know: 7%
102 - Ok, I don’t mind not knowing as much as I would like, but as long as I haven’t got the wrong countries involved, or mixed up the names of the leaders (a la Sen McCain!) I’ll leave it be.
Note that in the Scottish poll, Conservatives have a much more favourable view of Salmond/SNP than Brown/Labour.
Could this suggest likely tactical voting in Labour/SNP seats?
92. Weathercock - maybe you should change your log on to fluffy thoughts!
Well, the ladies of this region can always become models for particular specialist websites!
103 - they will no doubt release the voting figures in stages. If the have headlined it as ’sensational poll figures’ they it must be good. I’m just impatient. What are the poll figures?!
Justine Greening hides her age, and the Telegraph subs forget to change the blanks:
“She is a politician who domestically has a lot to look forward to. She is tipped for promotion if and when the Tory leader decides to tinker with his front bench team. The %% year-old has impressed in the last six months, profiting from Labour’s turmoil, not least its decision to retrospectively tax older family cars.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2522958/Interview-with-Justine-Greening-MP.html
I can’t see any sign of this poll
#107
Matin Day. I am still on speaking terms with Mark Senior. [OK, he does not obtrusively insult me as he does you.]
Please do not confuse me with any weahercock, or females per se. Danke!
109. It was just weathercocks fettish! Thought your name was more apt! Sorry!
I think people are overlooking the main factor in all this, which has been the recent political history of Russia. The country has been overtaken by the former KGB, who have taken control of the media, dismantled their democracy, killed their critics, organised a huge patroage system from Moscow outwars, and started acting very aggressively abroad. They do not subscribe to any particular ideology, but they are motivated by three main aspects, shaped by their background during the Cold War years: (1) A deep paranoia towards the West and anger at what they consider hypocrisy, (2) a desire to return Mother Russia to “greatness” (i.e. military might) after what they consider a humiliation, and(3) a rejection of the liberal democratic order as “weak”. These spies in government regard all the former parts of the Soviet Union as natural Russian territory, and wish to reclaim these losses in a similar manner to Hitler’s desire to tear up Versailles. I respect Morus’ judgment in most matters, but I think it is naive to believe Moscow can be rehabilitated into a good, decent state in the modern democratic understanding of it. I’m not suggesting we should use military intervention for regime change or anything stupid like that, but we need to maintain a clear understanding of the priorities of the men in Moscow.
100. Just read the Debka article. The Line that Geogia has hired up to 1000 Israeli military advisers is laughable. The most they can have, if they’ve actually got any is in the ten’s.
Appopro of 112. It ia true though, that many Georgian jews emigrated to Israel in the 70’s, so the IDF has plenty of Georgian speakers they can make use of.
Biggest implication is probably that China will be a bit peed off.
Biggest implication is probably that China will be a bit peed off.
From that Greening article:-
‘She argues that pubic finances’
obama’s tracking poll lead with gallup up to 5 points now.
116 [MODERATED] - 19:12
118 [Moderated] - 19:33
Covering a few points in one post:
100,112
It is true that there are apparently significant numbers of isreli advisors in Georgia. In fact last month there was a large joint exercise with over 1000 USMC troops there as well. Most have now left but some are thought to remain as advisors and specialists. One of the air bases bombed by the Russians yesterday was full of US military personnel a couple of weeks ago.
Frank, less than half the recoverable oil has so far been extracted from the UK North Sea. With the new extraction methods we now use there is about 40 years worth of production at current rates left even if we do not find any more fields.
Oh and the British did indeed pay attention to the Caucasus even after the Great Game had ended. At the end of WW1 they sent a large military force of over 1000 men with armoured cars to assist the Armenians against the Turks following the collapse of the Russian army in late 1917. They were under siege at Baku for about a month and were eventually forced to withdraw by ship to Enzeli and Astrakhan. The Germans also had a very significant force in Georgia in 1918 and ended up ina very nasty battle with their own allies the Turks in an attempt to stop them seizing Baku.
118 - Sorry Patrick and Sean Fear - I’m going to have to be risk averse this time
30. What I’m not talking about is pre-WWII.
The 2002 figures are 37.5% Russian-speakers. IIRC this was somewhat higher before Latvian independence in 1991. I don’t think however that Russia would look to up-to-date census figures - the underlying point is that Russia’s neighbours with large Russian-speaking minorities have reason to be concerned.
I gave a one-sentence description of the recent ’scandal’ that has apparently scotched Sarah Palin’s chances of the VP slot.
Dave H has had a comment released from moderation (at 110 on the last thread) that shines a good deal more light on the affair, and indicates where my attempt at brevity may have misled. I would recommend giving his comment a look if you have bets on Palin, or would consider it.
121 - Well according to the clock you moderated it a minute before he posted it!
I used my watch, which is about 4 minutes off the server clock! (Or you can believe that I am allowed occasional use of the Smithson time machine, that makes his betting so fruitful - your call!)
Wouldn’t it be better to remove the post since it’s pretty obvious what the content was, and i didn’t read it.
Or at least remove the reply - it makes it pretty obvious.
126 - Having amended Patrick’s post, Sean Fear’s response, and my apology for moderating them - I don’t think it is clear any more.
123. Yes, interesting. But seeing how much he stresses the links are entirely speculative, he seems quite confident about the man investigating her being “Obama’s point man”. Partisanship, perhaps?
Incidentally, I just read Sean Fear’s post at 111 on that thread. I’ve long thought exactly the same thing about Marxism ever since my university days, but he expressed it extremely well. I sometimes wonder if Hitler had won the Second World War whether his successors would have argued over Mein Kampf the same way.
130 - Apart from baseless accusations to deflect criticism there appears to be no evidence linked to, the references that I found were from Palin herself and assorted right wing sites echoing her.
Isn’t that why there’s an enquiry anyway? To see what is true or not?
What is this Poll from.
There appears to be some kind of concerted web campaign to get this non-entity Palin on the Republican ticket. RCP blog comments have been full of cr@p ramping her for months.
She clearly doesn’t have the experience or talent to run for VP and I’m sure McCain realises this. I wouldn’t waste a penny backing her.
I have just put a small wager on General Wesley Clark for the vice presidency. I think Obama could trump McCain’s strengths in the “Rovian” recommended way and also the recent developments in South Ossetia might make this a very prudent move.
I have no intention of offending anyone;my post seemed totally innocous [moderated] I assure no offence was meant-and I have no doubt Sean Fear meant no offence either
133 - General Wesley Clark, the man who apparently wanted to start World War III in Kosovo?
Easterross said he had been YouGoved earlier in the week. If its for a sunday doesn’t the telegraph use You Gov ?
134 - seeing as you’ve already been moderated once that would seem to be a particularly unnecessary post. I feel sorry for the moderators. Let Morus at least have a half hour break!
134 - It defeats the purpose of moderation if you repeat something, Patrick!! I know no offence was meant, but to be on the safe side etc etc
Neither of you were out of order - sorry to have to be so careful
138 Fair play-I stand informed! It does raise the issue of ‘freedom of speech’-admittedly I’ve zealously taken the PC side on some issues myself.Enough of cyberworld;off for a shave and freshen-up,and down to my local for a few bevvies-before I go,I will raise a point for debate-that this site is disproprtionately frquented by educated,’middle-class’ for want of a better term,posters-I socialise with a lot of what could be lossely classed ‘White Van Men’ ie skilled manual workers-and most of them stoically accept the spike in fuel prices as a global phenomenon-and there is nothing like the anti-Brown feeling on here.I’m not saying Brown is loved in my social circle,far from it,but I concur with some posters on here who say whilst the Tories will probably win the next election,it will be by a far smaller margin than todays polls,and many posters currently predict.
Must go now-too much blood in my alcohol stream,syanaora:lol:
Slightly offtopic. Check this out:
http://tinyurl.com/6cf39p
IncredEEEEEblay.
136 - The SNP-commissioned poll I mentioned was 1,028 respondants in Scotland, and was conducted by YouGov. It could well be that, given that he is based north of the wall.
139 - Have a good night out Patrick!
140 - Screw the posting-three-times-in-a-row-curse: that is awesome!
I don’t think it will affect the general political situation too much here. Given that Milipede is the Foreign Schoolboy and the Russian bear is starting to swipe at its neighbours there may be a vague memory of Thatcher’s strength in the Cold War era, but I don’t think it will affect the Labour-Conservative competition.
However, unless Milipede is at least adequate in responding to this (doubtful, he has all the gravitas of a deflated balloon) it may actually help Brown by knocking some of the wind out of Miliband’s sails.
It seems to have flared up very suddenly. Let’s just hope the Russkis don’t go banzai and start shelling Tblisi.
129 Thank you. I think National Socialists were much less concerned than Marxists about what people actually believed, but had Hitler won, it’s quite likely that rival National Socialist groups would have argued about Mein Kampf’s true meaning.
135. Alex - is there any hard evidence of this? NATO’s operations in Kosovo and the political results of this surely have been very successful. Here is an article supporting the case for Obama choosing Wesley Clark:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/judah-freed/and-its-got-to-be-gen-wes_b_116812.html
It would be remiss of me not to link to Cicero’s blog, where he gives his views (also expressed on here) of the crisis in Georgia. He clearly knows the area well, I expect he will post more on this over the coming weeks (no pressure!), if it is not resolved quickly.
http://cicerossongs.blogspot.com/
Maybe Miliband will send Alan Milburn to Georgia as his special envoy. On second thoughts, maybe Brown will send them both there.