Could Miliband be Labour’s Nick Clegg?
August 10th, 2008
Has he really got what it takes to undermine Cameron?
Now there’s a headline, I know, designed to provoke a largish slice of the PB audience but it could be correct.
For every Labour person I’ve spoken to over the past forty-eight hours, and for various reasons that has been quite a few, has told how under Gordon they are heading for oblivion but that David Miliband is “the one” who can turn the party’s fortunes round.
They believe passionately that he has what it takes to take on the Tories, to get Labour’s message over and to exploit what they see as serious weaknesses in David Cameron’s position.
-
The qualities and powers that are being attributed to the young Foreign Secretary are similar to the hopes that many Lib Dem supporters invested in Nick Clegg after Ming Campbell stepped down last October. Without upsetting the latter group too much most would agree, surely, that he has yet to live up to the billing
For just because one party has managed to turn itself round by electing an articulate and apparently charming leader in his 40s with an Oxbridge background does not necessarily mean that the Lib Dems then and now Labour should consider doing the same.
What we need here is some named leader polling - something that in spite of a mass of surveys in recent weeks no one paper has yet commissioned. This involves voting intention questions along the lines of those we saw in the two years leading up Brown’s June 2007 coronation - “Suppose the Conservative Party were to be led by David Cameron, Labour by David Miliband and the Liberal Democrats by Nick Clegg. If there were to be a General Election tomorrow how would you vote….?”
Precisely the same weightings and turnout elements were applied in these surveys as with the main voting qutestions and those up to last June proved to be remarkably good indicators about what would happen to Labour with Gordon at the helm. The factions within Labour who sought to rubbish them every month are paying the price now.
So how would Miliband do in a similar match-up? Let’s hope that one of the pollsters repeats the exercise.
Mike Smithson
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LOL, these Labour flunkies - are tey most impressed by his idiocy over Burma or by his utterly contemptible absence over Georgia?
I think Labour’s hat-hanging on anyone who pops their head over the parapet goes to show just how weak, pathetic and frankly finished they are.
No-one in the cabinet supports a Milliband move against Brown, Brown is not resigning - Milliband therefore would need to grow a set and resign to force the issue - unlikely as he hasn’t shown any bottle as Foreign Secretary - in fact I can’t think of anything he ahs done as FS except force an unpopular EU treaty through.
P.S. yes, Milliband is Labour’s Clegg
Oh no !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
A Sunday morning thread made for Martin Day !!!!!!!!!!!!
People who have had to work with him at the Foreign Office are less than delighted both with his ability to be articulate as well as his sense of policy and direction.His personality traits are also quite repugnant
As I’ve said before Tories shouldn’t lose any sleep over the prospect of his becoming Labour leader.
Miliband’s speech to the Labour Party Conference last year was unimpressive - to put it mildly.
“The world is a scary place.” I almost expected him to go “wooh - wooh” afterwards.
Is the Labour Party really this desperate?
What an astute piece of analysis Mike. The labour members and unions will feel this in their gut, which is why they won’t be daft enough to elect him, however much he is ‘bigged-up’ by media commentators. Harman or Straw to defeat him easily if it comes to that before an election.
(Which I doubt).
England V France in the ladies archery bronze medal shoot off …..
Remember Agincourt ladies !!
7 - France up by 1 after 12 arrows each
No, Milliband is not Labour’s Nick Clegg…because he is not even that good. Choosing Milliband would leave Labour with the least good of a set of posh-boy leaders. Labour are nuts if they think this is the solution.
2×10 and an 8 - good effort on that set from GB
It appears Labour members are so dispirited and desperate they will greet almost anyone as a potential saviour. First Brown was going to wash away the stain of Blair, now Miliband will magically transform the dire situation brought about by Blair.
It’s all very reminiscent of the Tories in the 2000s desperately looking for a magic bullet to transform their fortunes. There isn’t one.
A 7/8/9 this set, gives France the chance to take charge
France’s to lose now
I think the question is a false one, Mike, because Cameron is nothing much to write home about either.
As people have become increasingly discontent with Labour, first under Blair, and now under Brown, they have looked for an alternative. The other alternative when Cameron first came into prominence, was Ming Campbell. So Cameron it had to be, for all his weakness and inexperience.
He was helped in this by two key factors. One was an extraordinarily effective (not to say ruthless) media operation, helped not least by the backing of American Republican operators.
The other was the emergence of a new breed of Tories who are ruthless, indeed unscrupulous, in doing down their opponents.
Cameron has been successful (so far); but I do not think that that success is to be attributed to the qualities which he shares with Clegg and Milliband.
Millipede and Legover are men of the same ilk. Pseudo intellectial, shallow and weak. They both spout meaningless drivel, and are foot in the mouth masterworks.
Good submission wethercock. Your name contains the clue.
Miliband probably has a bit more about him than Clegg and he starts from a higher base, but it is another young political leader, which is rather becoming a cliche. I was very strongly of the view that the Lib Dems needed Huhne because, while he occasionally seems unhinged, he has so much fire that he could’ve made an impression. Clegg has made some interesting points but he’s not yet found the best way to get them across.
I think Harman is appalling but she will increase the number of women interested in voting Labour. Straw would be a transition at best, I’d have thought but maybe he has qualities for leadership I’ve missed? Really, though, Brown’s going nowhere.
Thank you for your support, Weathercock. Though I think you do overdo it a bit. Neither Cameron, Clegg nor Milliband is quite as dreadful as you make out.
14. Which Republicans have been helping the Tories? And what are you referring to with ‘unscrupulousness in doing down their opponents’?
Frank Luntz, anybody? And the disgraceful Mr Oakes in Watford?
20 “Mr Oakes”? I assume you mean Mr. Oakley, and he’s not a Republican.
20.
Ian Oakley is responsible for the Tories’ high polling results? er…
Should be pleased by comments which still see Cameron as some no-chinned PR spiv but Cameron has 3 years of leadership behind him, tested against Blair and Brown, both backed by quite formidable PR operations (though Brown is damaged by having opposing factions in his since last October). He has pulled the party to the centre-ground and quite effectively pushed Labour into trying to establish clear Red Water. Labour isn’t only in turmoil because Brown is useless but because Cameron established the Conservatives as a real alternative.
We haven’t seen much to indicate Miliband has leadership qualities - he’s obviously ranked highly by experienced politicos but he hasn’t flowered in his ministries, and isn’t a Big Beast. Doubt he could do worse than Brown but will he be able to hold the Labour coalitions in the PLP together?
OBAMA/McCAIN — WIN PERCENTAGE
<<>>
-> Intrade (last trade): 59.8 % / 37.2%
-> Betfair (last trade): 64.52% / 31.75%
-> 538.com (projection): 63.9% / 36.1%
<<>>
Intrade:
Obama.President :
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*
McCain.President
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=409933
———-
Betfair:
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———-
538.com:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Millipede is an eejit.
I half expect him to demand Russian tanks be pulled back from their march on…Atlanta.
But why should South Ossetia be any different from Kosovo which Millipede was happy enough to recognize?
Was actually beering it up in Gori last Friday, shades of Warsaw August 1939?
If Darling is seriously claiming that Brown’s people leaked his stamp duty plans against his knowledge then he should resign now. If this is true it’s a blatant undermining of his authority and he shows himself to be a pathetic wimp of a man in not standing up for himself. What a drip!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043249/Darling-I-8217-ve-stitched-No-10-stamp-duty.html
If your Labour sources really believe that David Miliband is the party’s saviour, the Labour party is in deep deep trouble.
In my view, he would be a dreadful choice for the Labour party to choose as Prime Minister right now. He has nothing distinctive to offer to capture the public’s attention or to change their mind about the Labour party. He cannot present himself as a clean pair of hands. He is not offering a fresh direction. He is not a battle-hardened fighter. He would not shore up the base. He isn’t even that charming - in a charm-off between Miliband, Clegg and Cameron, I’d rank him as third favourite.
“But why should South Ossetia be any different from Kosovo which Millipede was happy enough to recognize?”
One reason might be, that unlike Serbia, Georgia doesn’t have a recent record of aggression against its neighbours.
Dante has a line in the Divine Comedy about “the Jew who laughs in your midst”. Milipede reminds me of that, a sort of sneering, supercilious, I’m-smarter-than-you-ish-ness. His equally clever brother comes across much better.
That said, Miliband would still be a big improvement on Brown, but so would Jeanette Krankie. Labour should dump the Tractor Fella, SOON, then call that election.
Clegg’s disastrous reign is a mystery. A number of us (ahem) said that the Lib Dems were making the wrong choice at the time: a poorly pirated version of Cameron was not the right leader, when the LDs needed to diffrentiate themselves from a rampant Tory party encroaching on their centre ground. Vince Cable was the man.
But maybe anyone would have struggled as Lib Dem leader in this present climate. They are probably doomed to ten years of decline.
Morning all,
Perhaps someone can update me…..
Has Miliband made any comment on Georgia? I thought Des Browne (go figure) was heading up the British delegation on Georgia?
Russia expands bombing blitz in Georgia
By DAVID NOWAK – 11 minutes ago
“Russian jets have been roaming Georgia’s skies since Friday. They raided several air bases and bombed the Black Sea port city of Poti, which has a sizable oil shipment facility.
The Russian warplanes also struck near the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline which carries Caspian crude to the West, but no supply interruptions have been reported.”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hV2N6fVKS5slf10A13Dj_uIdaZ4QD92FC9KO0
Sean Fear - You are right on both counts. The disgraced Mr Oakley of Watford it is. Actually, I am surprised you can remember his name, because he has been carefully airbrushed out of the Tory Party hasn’t he? Until a few weeks ago, he was one of Cameron’s Consrvatives’ high fliers.
And I am sure that you are right in saying that he is not a Republican.
I mentioned his name because I see him as one of the new breed of ruthless Conservatives that have now appeared on the scene. In his case, he caried his ruthlessness to extremes.
But he got away with a campaign of intimidation and criminal damage over a period of three years. Are you saying that this had no effect at all on the political set-up in Watford?
Mike says in his post that we need a poll asking “Suppose the Conservative Party were to be led by David Cameron, Labour by David Miliband and the Liberal Democrats by Nick Clegg. If there were to be a General Election tomorrow how would you vote….?”, comparing this with similar polls asking about Gordon Brown before Blair left the scene.
But I’m not sure a similar question now would mean very much. Gordon Brown was a very much better-known figure than Miliband is. What’s more, any new Labour leader first needs to get the confidence and support of his own party; it’s not just a question of how the individual would appeal to voters. If his own party don’t unite around him or her, they’ll make no progress at all. For reasons we’ve explored in previous threads, it’s not clear that Miliband would be the figure who could unite the party, improve morale, and inspire the activists.
And let’s also be clear: Miliband is no Cameron. Ted at 23 has it right.
I think most Conservatives would say: ‘Miliband? Bring him on!’
Miliband appears to be rowing back. He has not been in a hurry to talk about Russia/Georgia/South Ossetia, surely an ideal chance to look calm, reassuring and statesmanlike if nothing else; and in flying kites for no immediate election, his camp seems to acknowledge there will be no Miliband bounce. If his grand strategy is to keep on till the Americans can lift the economy, then MPs are free to wonder why they cannot do this under Brown.
Alan Milburn, also from the Blairite wing, has floated some policy ideas, unencumbered by collective responsibility. They can be found on his web site:
http://www.alanmilburn.co.uk/
If these are the sort of policies Miliband would pursue, then things may indeed get worse for Labour. Whether or not Milburn’s ideas are good ones, in the short term, in attacking existing public services, they seem more likely to antagonise Labour supporters than attract them, and the short term is what counts before a 2010 election.
Apologies for the late post, but am in the office dealing with clients in the Middle East. I wish to refer to the extrapolation of seats from poll results and believe that in Scotland Labour and Conservatives are overstated
If we take the latest YouGov of C46/Lab26/LD17 and apply it into the Baxter (Electoral Calculus) formula then we need to allow for at least three special cases: Scotland (SNP factor), Wales (PC factor) and SW England (LD factor). I have used the regional version of Baxter and have applied for Scotland: C17/Lab29/LD14/SNP37.
For Wales I have used the constituency results for the last Welsh Assembly election of C23/Lab32.5/LD15/PC23. In a general election PC could strengthen on the basis of Independence & Welsh Language whilst LD could weaken due to pulling out of the projected rainbow governing alliance (C/SNP/LD)and the Conservative inroads in the Powys Council elections.(I have been working in West Wales for the last four years)
When these regional figures are inserted, then to restore the totals to the YouGov figures,(in the absence of precise YouGov regional splits) I boosted the LD in the North East and boosted the Conservatives more in the Southern seats, a bit less of a boost in the Midlands and the smaller boost in the North West and Yorkshire.
This gave overall results of C419/Lab149/LD26/Nat36.
With reference to the regions:
Wales gave C7/Lab23/LD3/PC6/Oth1.Scotland gave C3/Lab17/LD9/SNP30.
Interestingly, for England it was C409/Lab109(of which 9 are very marginal)/LD14.
I would interested to know if others have tried a similar approach and would be will to pass on my spreadsheet.
32 - Who cares about Watford?
OT
Even more trouble at’ mill. Is Gordon still pontificating in Edinburgh, fiddling while Rome burns?:
Would these Labour donors be demanding their money back if the party had a different leader than Brown?:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043218/Labour-plunges-new-cash-crisis-Donorgate-tycoons-demand-money-back.html
The Sunday Times doesn’t like Brown’s ongoing profligacy with taxpayers money in his frantic attempt to keep himself in the job:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article4493167.ece
Ferrets in a sack. Now the postie joins in:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043250/Gordon-Browns-relations-Health-Secretary-Johnson–8216-breaking-point.html
Has Brown’s pet poodle slipped his leash?:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1043249/Darling-I-8217-ve-stitched-No-10-stamp-duty.html
Wildly offtopic, but apart from new war in Asia, the biggest Olympics ever, an imminent global Depression, and the laughable collapse of Britain’s government into despair and infighting, there isn’t much news, so I thought I’d post this (hey it might cheer people up).
I’ve been reading the Zachary Leader biography of Kingsley Amis. It’s compulsively readable, mainly cause Amis was such a compulsive womanizer, boozer, and joker.
But the best gags in the book actually come from Amis’s good friend Robert Conquest, who - to my surprise - was a master of ribald light verse.
These two verses, in particular, crack me up. To understand them you have to know that FZE is Fellow of Zoological Society, and P is President of the same.
Here’s the first.
I was thrilled when I went to the zoo
They allowed me to roger the gnu
And a young FZS
Remarked to me “Yes
It’s a privelige granted to few”
A few weeks after composing this masterpiece, Conquest returned to the theme:
There was plenty of good-natured chaff
When I went back to f*ck the giraffe
And the old PZS
Could hardly suppress
A dry professorial laugh
I will now go back On topic. Promise.
28 Kosovo does muddy the waters but the genocidal activities of Milosovic’s regime, demonstrated in Croatia and Bosnia did provide a strong case for international action. Independence for Kosovo, enforced by EU/NATO has less legal basis, though self determination is a founding principle of the UN.
Alans/Ossetians in South Ossetia have a good argument for self government, though at 75,000 strong perhaps not for independence, but that was on offer. What Russia is doing is annexing sovereign territory through force, in fact if not yet in law. Russia, China and allies are the first to protest at “outside” interference in internal politics, that argument has fallen by the wayside now.
As for its concern about NATO - the USSR had a land border with NATO (Turkey) when it occupied Georgia, if Georgia joined NATO there’s no real change.
33 — re Brown bounce anticipated in the polls.
The difference is that there was a clear mechanism for the Brown bounce. Many Labour supporters had abandoned the party over Iraq. Since Iraq was associated with Blair rather than the wider Labour party, these voters could return to the fold under Brown. This was widely anticipated and duly came to pass.
Whether there will be a post-Brown boost for Miliband depends on why voters are now leaving. If, as many on here believe, it is because Brown bites his fingernails, then there will be a boost. But if it is the economy then we can expect no bounce.
36 - From the Mail article (last link):
“Last night, Downing Street strongly denied having ‘floated’ the story, which appeared in newspapers on Tuesday, saying the only two people who brief in Downing Street were both on holiday at the time.”
That’s clear then. The story can’t have come from Downing Street. The people who normally deal with underhand destabilisation of colleagues were out of the office.
I was at a social gathering last night where there were quite a lot of traditional Labour Party supporters. Not one had a good word for Brown’s leadership. There was a lot of disappointment and pity expressed about his Premiership and himself. Also an acceptance that Labour will lose the next GE and lose BIG with Brown as leader.
I was very angry when Brown bullied his path to an uncontested Labour leadership election last year and then claimed to be “humbled” by the support of the Party. Well he has had his chance and has been found wanting. There is one action he can take to redeem himself. Resign. It is an appalling state of affairs that one man’s notion of his own self importance should risk the destruction of a governing Party.
Is Miliband the answer? I think so. The key political left leaning journalists think so. The few declared Labour supporters who visit this site think so. Paul Linford thinks so.
Will it happen? I still think it’s 50/50. How will it happen? I can’t work that bit out.
40 - So if everyone was on holiday then who’s in charge?
An interesting sub-section to this is Ming was ejected because the LD’s were on the slide due to a likely close GE in autumn 2007 (Between Tory /Labour). Some say that Clegg firmed up the LD support but it may be the case that the LD’s would have some sort of swing back anyway once Brown imploded. So Clegg may be a brake or weight on LD support, by the same measure miliband may well suffer the same fate should he succefully oust Brown from the Top Job. Personally speaking Labour would be Loonies to try and chop Brown and set themselves up for an early election in the likely middle of an economic storm but please Mr Miliband go ahead!
42. Des Browne by the sound of it!
44. Does jsfl stand for “Jack Straw for Leader”?
38. Not just Kosovo - the EU’s creation of a colonial administration in Bosnia and bullying tactics vis-a-vis some of the North African countries (e.g. over fishing rights) might also have sent signals to Russia that 19th century-style power politics are again acceptable.
One also has to consider just how far Russia expanded beyond its ethnic borders in the 18th and 19th century - some of this expansion has been ‘ratified’ by Russification and settlement subsequently, some not. Russia’s current actions may also be in part aimed at the ‘not’ part.
I think the article is pretty much to the point. Different situations require different leaders. The Tories were evil and old, so a young likeable leader was just the thing. Before that, Blair was a brilliant contrast to Kinnock.
Although the Tory posters on here will certainly disagree, I don’t think the Labour brand is as toxic now as the Tory one was. If I were them, I would be most worried about being seen as incompetent losers and the lack of enthusiasm from core voters. If they could find one, they should go for a happy warrior. Someone who stands for something (even if it does not appeal to an overwhelming majority of the country) and is both willing and able to take the fight to Cameron.
I don’t have the impression Miliband is such a happy warrior, but then is there any?
Why nobody will do nothing about the Georgian War
—-
Coze we live in the age of the New Man — a Man directed by the mechanical and functional standards of internationalist social engineers: a being reformatted as an ant — equal in all respects to all the other ants, thanks to the freedom-killing “human rights,” which are comforting him in his role as an ethnocultural and marketable device — manipulated at will by all the many festive commemorations, narcissistic identities, and various “prides” which does boast “differences” only if they are indistinguishable.
We live in the ending of a POLITICAL understanding of history.
Thereby, all the politico-territorial BORDERS are becoming meaningless.
Over the past forty years, a new form of internationalism — post-socialistic, environmentalist, globalist, relativistic — appeared finally to establish itself as the terminal horizon of human thought and political action.
This neo-internationalism is offering a kind of global hyper-social-democracy — universal, comprehensive, — able, according to its defenders, to fight the “negative” effects of “economic globalization” - read “capitalist-imperialist-colonialist-SO-not-nice” - and to impose, by force if necessary, its anomic design and anti-historical development of human civilizations.
To the cosmopolitical and paradoxical evolution of mankind, based on conflictual encounters and many competitives sovereign political associations, — one is substituting a set of humanitarian guidelines, directed by bureaucratic agencies, responsible for the implementation of international tribunals to punish offenders, to impose the idea that all cultures are equal, that all politico-economic models are quite comparable, that the unique history of the many peoples and their territories is an appendix of the general trend in Men, — while in fact it is its very ENGINE — and that, finally, the very notions of border and territory are outdated, obsolete, conservative, reactionary, if not terribly fascistic, or extremely authoritarian.
I’m pretty shocked at some of the apologism for Russia on the previous threads. Much of the thinking seems to be “we should sympathise with them because they still think from a 19th century mindset, and this is a reasonable action from that perspective”. Perhaps we should consider a moment, why Moscow has this mindset: it is because they have become a state run by formerly communist spies, constantly paranoid about the outside world. If they had instead solidified their emerging democracy they could have become a proper member of the international democratic order, and a true ally of the West. Instead they are doing everything to undermine it. I’m also confounded by those that point to Western “hypocrisy”, even when there are complicating factors in many of those examples, but overlook the outrageous Chechnya example. I hope the people currently defending Moscow will admit how wrong they were if the current Georgian government is deposed and a puppet administration is set up.
48. Labour supporters (Or anti-tories) tend to be more vocal and solid in their advocation against Tories. That does not necessarily mean that Labour are less hated: Simply you do not get most Tories ranting Labour Labour Labour - Out Out Out! I occasionally do it as i wind up on here but would not dream of doing it to policiticians in the street etc. I would be embarrassed & feel a real plonker!
No Anti- Labour voters tend to do it in that quent-essentially democratic way! That is put a cross against the box for Tory or in some cases LD.
48. Great post. Other than Tory partisans, I don’t think are hated as the Cosnervatives were. For the most part people just think they are pathetic.
50 — Indeed.
Remember that paper? : Russia: A totalitarian regime in thrall to a Tsar who’s creating the new Facist empire
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-566931/Russia-A-totalitarian-regime-thrall-Tsar-whos-creating-new-Facist-empire.html
“Similarly most Russians feel threatened - and humiliated - by the prospect that Ukraine and Georgia, once the most intimate allies of the Soviet Union, may soon be enfolded in the arms of NATO.
Georgia, which is struggling to contain a separatist movement that is openly supported by the Kremlin, has the potential to become a dangerous flashpoint in which the Western allies could only too easily become ensnared.
Does this mean - as some have argued - that we are about to face a new Cold War? I don’t think so for a moment.
With communism consigned to “the dustbin of history”, there is no ideological conflict of any significance. And there is now only one military superpower.
In comparison with America, Russia’s armed forces are a joke. Only catastrophic stupidity on either side could lead to a nuclear confrontation.
But this does not mean that we can all breathe a sigh of relief and forget about the Bear.
An autocratic and resurgent Russia that feels bruised and threatened is an unstable beast.
The Kremlin’s growing rapprochement with Beijing (the adversaries of a generation ago are now not only major trading partners, but conduct joint military exercises) shifts the balance of power in the world.
And as life on earth becomes less and less secure, with evermore people competing for a dwindling supply of vital resources, Russia, as an energy giant, is once again a big player on the world stage.
Make no mistake, we are in for a very bumpy ride.”
52. “Labour are hated”
how much does it cost to commission an opinion poll from one of the major pollsters?
51. Mind you that Labour MP said on Newsnight that People shouted at him in supermarkets!
So maybe really are in deep shit if there own are turning against them!
50. Excellent post. I found some of the apologias for Russia disturbing similar to those used for Nazi Germany in the 1930s.
53. There is an ideological difference between those that believe in liberal democratic norms and those that fear them. Democratic activism among the Han Chinese has faded away since the early 90s. Much will depend on how the Communist party responds when it comes back. Either they will be smart enough to realise the game is up and they can not hold back the tide any longer, or they will try to hold on via nationalism and demonisation of internal and external “enemies”. A Russian-Iranian-Chinese axis is certainly very possible in a new cold war.
35 - Financier - welcome. There are a few guys on here who run their own models to take into account regionality, Andy Cooke and Sean Fear have some of the best localised knowledge in the game, and RodCrosby has a model that also tries to account for these things. I’ll flag your post if he comes on later on.
We have all commented in the passed on the similarity of the US Presidential race to Series 7 of the West Wing. And lo and behold, we have a war in Central Asia as well. If I lived near a Californian nuclear plant I’d move now.
On Topic. Seriously Mike, if the party had any sense they would put you in the Lords pronto and hire you free lance to map out strategic direction for the party for the next decade. You have, aain, produced a astute piece of political analysis in this article. A couple of points.
1. Just look at those three photos of potential General Election leaders then close your eyes. Does it feel right? Three Oxford posh boys scrabbling, triangluating over 100000 voters in key marginals in the south of england? Is that modern Britain.
First the A.N.Others would be laughing. Salmond would wet him self. plaid , if they ever get round to electing Adam Price as leader, would wet them selves.
A Caroline Lucas led green party would wet them selves. There would be a huge “bugger the lots of them” constituiency. My money would be on RESPECT hold Bethnal Green and Galloway gaining Poplar and Limehouse. You could even see peoples voice or a franchise there of gaining another welsh seat.
2. Is this not, despise him though I do, a testament to tony Blairs astonishing dominence of British politics ? In the end he begat cameron, who begat Clegg and so it comes full circle with Milliband. there should be a portriat of Blair handing over this thread like God at the top of a medieval rood screen.
3. If they are all the same price then people will buy Coke over virgin Cola. I see Cameron as Coke, Clegg as Virgin Cola and Milliband as Asda own brand.
Don’t do it Labour, it’ll be the worst mistake you ever made.
58 — Ideological differences, yes, maybe. But above all: ethnic differences.
–> For the current Russia is an ethnic laboratory — designed by force in the egg-skulls of communism.
58 — Dozens of independent Republics are already in gestation in the East of the Urals.
46. St John - afraid not - given my politics it stands for:
Just Sack Freakin Labour!
It is also my initials……
53 - Christ, the Daily Mail can’t even spell fascist correctly now, the world’s going to the dogs I tell you.
Fascist not facist you dim witted, slack jawed buffoons!
(still, the world could be worse it could be something like post 49 claims it is - chortle….)
58 — So it will not be very difficult to work for what ye call “liberal democratic norms” within this artificial order.
49. 53. Not bad Philippe.
60 Yellow Submarine “On Topic. Seriously Mike, if the party had any sense they would put you in the Lords pronto and hire you free lance to map out strategic direction for the party for the next decade.”
Excellent idea but I intend to poach him for the Tories. I reckon with DC’s brand of solid compassionate Conservatism it can be done.
re 60 Thanks for your kind comments.
If anybody important is reading I would be delighted to agree to YS’s suggestion and become a Lib Dem peer in the House of Lords. “The Punter’s Peer” - sounds good
Morus, just signed in a new computer could you release my comment in moderation pls.
Actually Miliband will make Labour’s fortunes worse not better. At least Brown might keep some Scottish seats for Labour. Miliband will not retain these seats and Labour can write off most of the English marginals already! Yep - Huge defeat likely!
67. The Conservatives will have more peerages to dole out to hardworking analysts!
come on in Mike, the water is warm, blue and pleasant
About time to repost a link I posted in the wee small hours, seeing as the macho tendency may be making an appearance -
“Andrew Sullivan on the view as to how McCain’s campaign makes him unsuitable to be Commander in Chief.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/you-think.html
“Here’s why all this matters. A critical part of what’s gone wrong these past few years has been the tendency of a war president to bully opponents, distort their meaning, use base emotional appeals when we need far more rational discussion about how to counter a very complex, terrifying Islamist threat. The kind of campaigns Rove ran in 2002, 2004 and 2006 made all this far harder. It reduced important debates about priorities in the war, detention and interrogation policies, the wisdom of long-term enmeshment in the Middle East, the difficulties of securing loose nukes, the excruciatingly difficult calls on which allies to trust and how - into dumb-ass contests about who is the biggest bad-ass, who is a treasonous wimp and which opponent most belongs in a French hair salon. ”
Thw world has been screwed up by macho posturing in place of realising that global politics is like chess, all about strategy. God help us if we get another gung-ho president who thinks only of the next headline.
53. The Russia-China relationship can only become ever more one-sided, and not to Russia’s advantage. That is why ultimately, I think the Kremlin will have to look West for allies.
The 21st century will see a new superpower challenging the States for global pre-eminance, and unlike the Soviet Union in the post-War period, it will do so with four times the population of America, and eight times that of Russia.
57 “I found some of the apologias for Russia disturbing similar to those used for Nazi Germany in the 1930s.”
Many people like to suck up to bullies. With some it’s just their innate cowardice which leads them to side with the aggressor, with others it’s their own authoritarian mindset which believes that might is right.
70. Lord Day And Lord Ave It!
H of L subsedised bar
71 Obama’s getting a bit gung-ho of late
Explosive petro-landscape
—-
In the confines of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh would be well advised to follow the path opened by the Kosovo toward POLITICAL SOVEREIGNTY, for its atypical geographical location so permits.
Also, there is no reason to give the Albanians the opportunity to change the route of a nation by the law of birthcontrol and of Kalashnikovs.
Let’s hope that the actual disintegration of the North Caucasus will affect many territories up to Turkey — and that even several Kurdistans (Iraqi, Turkish, Iranian, Syrian) will blossom in this higly explosive petro-landscape.
In return, the U.S. could well create a beautiful series of pyrotechnic explosion in Chechnya and the neighbouring Muslim republics…
75 - Obama’s statement on Georgia was pretty much the same as the US government’s. McCain’s was, shall we say, a little more belligerent.
I wonder if his foreign policy adviser being a lobbyist on behalf of Georgia has anything to do with that?
McCain hates Russia…
53. The thing to remember on Russia is that its currently got a population of 141 million with a projection of 110 million by 2050. that might rise a bit due to returning Russians or better healthcare but its not a huge country in population terms and militarily and economically it will be a mid ranking country in the 21st century. Oil & gas have given it a chance to throw a bit of post-imperial weight around but that’s also a shortish term advantage, probably a couple of decades.
Brasil has a bigger economy with India nearly as big as Russia and China is well ahead and growing faster. Russia’s oil & gas and minerals might make it an attractive partner for China but it’ll be the junior partner and China will gain the upper hand - China wouldn’t put up with Russia trying to take over Chinese oil companies in Siberia.
Russia is playing an odd game in global geopolitics as its most likely rival and danger in decades to come isn’t the USA and EU but China.
78 - What’s that got to do with it?
79 + an amazing ethnic diversity,
http://www.loc.gov/exhibits/empire/ethnic.html
McCain Statement:
“The news reports indicate that the Russian military forces crossed an internationally recognized border into the sovereign territory of Georgia. Russia should immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory. What is most critical now is to avoid further confrontation between Russian and Georgian military forces. The consequences of Euro-Atlantic stability and security are grave. The government of Georgia has called for a cease fire and for resumption of direct talks on South Ossetia with international mediators. The U.S. should
immediately convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to reverse course. The U.S. should immediately work with the E.U. and the OSCE to put diplomatic pressure on Russia to reverse this perilous course that it has chosen.
We should immediately call a meeting of the North Atlantic Council to assess Georgia’s security and review measures NATO can take to contribute to stabilizing this very dangerous situation. Finally, the international community needs to establish a truly independent and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia.”
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/08/08/mccain_calls_for_russia_to_pul.html
If anyone important in Cowley Street is reading my peerage list would be 1. Smithson 2. Rosie Boycott. Her Guardian interview a few weeks ago was practically a job application. and now she has gone to work for Boris! 3. Michael Meadowcroft. now in the LD fold and a huge thinker and repository of wisdom. 4. Richard Kemp, Liverpol councillor and Leader of the LGA group. We lack an urban , anti Labour edge and he is brilliant and a street fighter. 5. David Rendell. tell him to stop being so bloody stupid with this PPC for newbury nonsence and get where he can make a real contribution.
The only reason I don’t mention the divine Shami is I know she won’t do it.
Afternoon all, just popping on before going to visit my grandmother in hospital. Frankly haven’t most people now got to the stage of sayin “who cares about the leadership of the Labour party”! I find it bizarre that almost all the diehard Labour supporters I know are now deep in despair and some will even privately admit for the sake of their own jobs, homes etc the sooner David Cameron is in No 10 the better.
The Russians are on the point of plunging the Caucusses (sorry for spelling) into a major regional war and our Foreign Secretary is on holiday. He should have been on the first plane home 48 hours ago. Why is Des Browne and not Millibland speaking for this country?
69 Martin, for once you have it wrong. If Brown stays, Scottish Labour will be “slaughtered” at the GE. IF Millibland or A N Other takes control, they might just get midly hammered. Brown is probably more unpopular in Scotland than he is in England. He has become a figure of ridicule in the mainstream SCottish media. Everyone is looking for his daily blunder and each time he opens his mouth, he adds hundreds of votes to the SNP. SCottish Labour must be praying John MacDougall can hold out in Glenrothes.
Copied from last thread (apologies)
54. I expect the following -
1) Pressure from the French and Germans to stop any NATO expansion east.
2) A confederation of neighbours of Russia will be proposed. The kind where an invasion of one will mean war with all. The Russians will scream about this one.
3) One (or more) countries near Russia will announce a new energy policy - lots of nuclear reactors. Quite possibly Poland. More screams from Russia. I can easily imagine a Polish energy minister commenting that if their program is just as peaceful as the Iranian one…
79. Indeed. I know it sounds like a tom Clancy novel but Rusia couldn’t defend Siberia against a Chinese move in search of living space. You are right to point to population.
Nick Meo: Roots of the South Ossetia conflict
http://hnn.us/roundup/comments/53165.html
“…the fall of the Soviet Union brought ambitious local politicians to power and unleashed bitter rivalries over territory, which exploded into an ugly conflict in 1991.
Up to 100,000 South Ossetians had to flee from a short, bloody war in which hundreds were killed.
Since the opening of a major oil pipeline through Georgian territory in 2005, the struggle for influence between East and West has given rise to a new “Great Game”. America’s wish for a Georgian military base, Georgia’s ambition to join Nato and Russia’s fear of encirclement by former satellite republics that are now hostile, all complicate the region’s petty political problems further.”
82 - So now that Georgia has retreated and Russia looks likely to stay what next in McCain world? Shout impotently about how unfair it is, or maybe put more US troops into a war that is none of their own business? Does demanding that Russia be thrown out of the G8 really sounds like joined up, intelligent policy to you?
He has a lot to learn and, given his age and experience, I doubt that he’s going to learn it before it’s too late.
If Milliband’s article was intended as a challenge to Brown, and if it is true that Milliband lined up Milburn as his potential chancellor while still serving as a senior minister in Brown’s government, then he’s an arch-plotter.
Minsiters of such termperament may be able to get the top job and hang on to it for a while, but they tend to have difficulty focussing their government on the external challenges rather than internal manouvering - and to have any chance of making a come back against Cameron Labour does need a leader who can get his government to work together on the challenges facing the country rather than their internal plots and intrigue.
If Miliband did not intend his article to be seen as a challenge and if the Milburn story is false but he hasn’t succeeded in spiking it, then he’s shown serious political ineptness for a politician of his existing seniority, never mind a potential PM, and that does not bode well for him either.
Re posts 39, 51, 61, 66 on last night’s Yougov Poll thread.
Justin, you responded to a post asking why peole still vote labour by accusing those who vote Conservative of not being decent or civilised, and then accused churchgoers who even contemplate voting Tory of “utter humbug and hypocrisy.”
In that context if I had described you as a Labour voter - which in fact I didn’t - it would have been an entirely reasonable assumption.
If you vote for any party other than the Conservatives, my comment that you were insulting people with different views to your own stands, irrespective of whether you vote Labour, Lib/Dem, for another non-Conservative party, or don’t vote.
Now, lots of the regular posters on here post far harsher insults in just about every thread, and I don’t normally respond to them because they don’t usually make any claim to back up their insults with religious authority. What provoked me to respond to your post is that you did not just insult people of another view, but you also both dragged churchgoing into it and, with presumably unintentional irony, included “humbug and hypocrisy” as one of those insults.
If you cannot see the inconsistency in your position, may I suggest that instead of making comments about the validity of other people’s religious views you have a little read of those sections of the bible where Jesus told people how to deal with others with whom they had differences.
79.
The border with China is interesting. Already there is massive migration from China into Russian territory. If you are a poor farmer, unoccupied, free land just over there is tempting. When you add in escaping from the one child policy….
I wonder how many years before a chunk of Russia (very resource) rich tries to seceded?
I think Labour ARE hated at least as much as the Tories in the 90s; the difference is that today’s Labour-haters are just not *quite* as vocal and organised as the Tory-haters in the 90s.
By the time of Thatcher’s fall, the entire liberal-left establishment - from the Beeb to academia to the literati etc, was consumed with loathing for the Conservatives. This is a very loquacious section of society, so it seemed, to the unobservant, that Tory-hating was universal.
But of course it wasn’t, Major got trillions of votes in 92; even in 1997, when the Tories were indeed widely disliked, the Tory defeat was exaggerated by the electoral system.
Equally, there IS plenty of Labour hating now, but its in small discrete sections of society. Poor whites affected by immigration. Eurosceptics. Foxhunters. Some extremely disenchanted public sector workers. People who will never forgive the Iraq war. Etc.
Because of the scattered nature of this Labour-hating, it doesn’t seem as powerful as the Tory-hating of the 90s, but numerically I’d say it is just as potent.
Moreover, Labour’s great problem is not the hatred it evokes in some, but the apathy and disdain it evokes in many. Even at their lowest point in the late 90s, people came out to vote for the Tories. The core Conservatives never gave up.
I simply can’t see core Labour voters showing the same determination. They are annoyed, so they will abstain, they might vote LD or SNP. That’s what happened in Glasgow East.
This combination - of apathy, annoyance, disdain and pockets of real hatred - could be enough to destroy Labour, as an electoral force, for two decades.
91: ‘I think Labour ARE hated at least as much as the Tories in the 90s; the difference is that today’s Labour-haters are just not *quite* as vocal and organised as the Tory-haters in the 90s.’
The main difference is that in the 90s the Tory haters had the media behind them.
91. I think thats very astute. The liberal left occupies the commanding cultural heights. The artillery was fully trained on the Tories fully pre 1997. Now the guns are merely silent as they have gone AWOL from Labour. less noise but electorally just as bad for Labour as for the Tories.
UK-Paul — McCain and the actual desin disintegration of the North Caucasus
Becauze the current Russia is an ethnic laboratory, highly artifical and unstable, McCain — as President — shall act in order to help the actualisation of the dozens of independent Republics that are already in gestation, in potentia, in the East of the Urals.
The the U.S. could as well create a beautiful series of pyrotechnic explosion in Chechnya and the neighbouring Muslim republics…
Whilst we’re on the subject of ‘ruling stupid’ here’s an interesting article about Oliver Stone’s forthcoming biopic of Bush called ‘W’, to be released just three weeks before the election.
http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/film/article4473139.ece
95 - You really don’t realise how crazy that idea is do you?
96.
Although Stone insists that he intends to paint “a fair, true portrait of the man”, many doubt that the director of extremely controversial films about the lives and deaths of two previous presidents — JFK and Nixon — and an avowed Democrat who is fiercely opposed to the war in Iraq, has any intention, or even the ability, to be objective.
Quite.
87. It is the plot from a Tom Clancy novel: The Bear and the Dragon.
32. Are you saying that this had no effect at all on the political set-up in Watford?
I suspect it’s harmed Watford Conservatives.
48 etc. As for the point about whether Labour are hated or pitied, when the boot was on the other foot, I didn’t consider that the Conservative low point was when we were hated. The worst point was when I started finding sympathy.
98 - Reading a complete article is always a good idea I find -
“Within a few pages, it’s clear that W is going to be not a dry, serious biopic, but a spirited, often hilarious and surprisingly sympathetic portrait of Dubya. He is painted as a kind of hapless everyman, “not a bad guy, just an amiable buffoon”, as New York Magazine puts it. While the script was being developed, it had the working title Misunderstood.”
96: It will just support the prejudices of those who don’t like the GOP, and on the other side the prejudices of those who think the media is biased against the GOP.
99. yes, I have read it. But i thought he was bokers when he wrote a book about terrorists flying a comercial airliner into a prominent US building and look what happend.
94. Yes.
In this country the left faces the perennial problem acknowledged by Blair - Britain is basically a (small c) Conservative country. To win, therefore, the left needs lots of things on its side - a sense of moral purpose and superiority, all the power of the liberal Establishment (gunning for the right), a national sense of disgust or weariness with the Tories, a plausible and impressive leadership, and so forth.
These were all in place when the Tories fell in the early 60s, and arguably in 1945. They were certainly there in 1997.
Now ALL of these advantages have gone. Right now, the left feels morally INferior, if anything (Iraq, ID cards, 42 days, Euro-betrayal etc). Meanwhile their allies in the liberal Establishment have just given up. There IS a national sense of weariness and disgust - but it’s aimed at Labour. The Labour party’s leadership is widely ridiculed.
In these incredibly adverse circumstances, I say again, we are possibly looking at an epochal Labour wipe-out.
104. You have a finger on the pulse! Think you sum it up very well.
60 “I see Cameron as Coke, Clegg as Virgin Cola and Milliband as Asda own brand.”
Cameron goes from Sir Gaylord Poncyboots to The Real Thing. Quite a year he has had!
As for Miliband, you forgot to add that it was a 2 litre plastic bottle of Asda own brand coca cola, that had been left with the top off - it’s now gone totally flat.
And Sian Berry - dandelion and burdock. Nigel Farage? Tizer.
Brown was, of course, Irn Bru. Made in Scotland - and not to most people’s taste….
104. SeanT. What would you call a wipe-out in terms of umber of Labour GE seats?
101. “Misunderestimated” would have been better.
I wonder if America would ever reinstate the draft? And would it allow gays in the military this time around if it did?
By the way, what’s this government idea about extra fuel money for families? What about single people? Is the concept of cold something that only affects you when you get married?
In any case, they could always huddle up together to share body heat.
79. Indeed. I know it sounds like a tom Clancy novel but Rusia couldn’t defend Siberia against a Chinese move in search of living space. You are right to point to population.
by Yellow Submarine August 10th, 2008 at 1:18 pm -
I hate to point this out but any Russian President would respond with everything they have including nuclear weapons. So sure the Chinese could do it but only if they don’t mind Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong and hundreds of other places being erased from the map. Therefore it is fantasy and hence a Tom Clancy novel.
49 Phillipe I raise my hat to your comments and share in your frustration against what you call the “new man”. However, when the Berlin Wall came down and we all cheered and when we all stood by when the disintegration of Yugoslavia led to such disgusting bloodshed, did any of us stop to think what the consequences might be? America and the rest of the West ran riot round wherever they felt like and Russia remained quiet watching from the sidelines. This gained them the right to run riot when they felt like it and now the West feels compelled to keep quiet. You can rant and rave all you want but if you really want to “pose” as a libertarian remember that no government and no political party will ever defend individual liberty. At the end of the day they always play the game and if you trust them then…God help you.
109. I can’t see it happening unless it was in truly global balance of power circumstances. A generation of people have grown up not used to the draft, and it would strike people as extremely unfair. Anyone that tried it would suffer very badly politically.
112. When the West “ran riot” it caused one of the biggest waves of democratisation the world has ever seen. When Russia runs riot it will be rolling back people’s liberties and establishing autocracies. This moral equivalency stuff is tiresome.
107.
100-150 seats?
I don’t think this is likely YET, but it’s increasingly possible, if the Labour backbiting continues, the economy keeps sliding, and the Tories and Salmond stay smart and alert.
If Labour were to drop to 100-150 seats, I wonder if we would then see a real civil war for the soul of the party (or what would then be left of it), which might lead to some major and overdue realignment.
Basically the Blairite centre-right of Labour should ally with the Lib Dems to create one strong europhile liberal-left force, with a real prospect of government; the other, genuinely lefty Old Labourites would form their own serious party, which might never hold power but could as a kind of conscience of the nation - and they would defend the rights of poor white people, rather than the BNP.
This would be a big improvement in British politics.
107. SeanT. 100-150 seats. I agree with you. Not likely but quite possible.
Mike, have you deliberately chosen a mean looking Cameron compared to Miliband and Clegg?
28. “One reason might be, that unlike Serbia, Georgia doesn’t have a recent record of aggression against its neighbours.”
It does, however, have the history of pretty brutal repression against S Ossetia in the early 90s (as in completely flattening areas that supported secession, and murdering large chunks of the inhabitants).
Not that this has anything much to do with Russia’s motivations.
Its not a case of; COULD Milly be Labour’s Nick Clegg. IMO MMilly WILL be Labours Nick Clegg. Those people who assume Milliband is their knight in shining armour riding to the rescue on hiw white horse, are delusional, IMO. Theres no evidence that I have ever seen to suggest the public would take to Milliband any more than they have taken to Brown. I suspect Milly would be seen as a bit of a nerd and a geek. He may even be looked on as a William Hague type figure, minus the acknowlaged wit and jokes that Hauge possesed.
Labour would do MUCH better to go with someone like Alan Johnson or Jack Straw, IMO.
In the meatime, an interesting article in the MoS today, suggesting that Brown and Darling are at loggerheads over the stamp duty fiasco. Darling apparently thinks the policy was a number 10 leak and Brown is undermining him at every opportunity so that he can sack him and install Milly as Chancellor. Could Darling bite the bullit, resign and announce his intention to challenge Brown, thus starting the ball rolling against the hapless one? Don’t bet against it!
15. Interesting but I’m not sure the lego pieces fit together as easierly as that the liberal left. The blairites + LD’s idea ignores the rural versus urban, authoritarian versus liberal tensions there would be. Its interesting to see how relatively quickly the old liberal genes asserted them selves over the SDP ones post merger. However thats becuase the relative sizes of the merged parties allowed this. If the old liberal and SDP parties had been of equal size I think the merged party would have exploded by now.
104. I believe you have it the wrong way round.
In this country the Conservatives face the perennial problem acknowledged by Cameron - Britain is basically a (small l) Labour country. To win, therefore, the Conservatives need lots of things on its side - the evidence of Labour inability to handle (I won’t say manage) a successful economy, all the power of the State ranged against individual liberty, a national sense of disgust or weariness with being pushed around by government, failure in government on all sides and falling living standards.
These were all in place when Labour fell in the early 50s, 1979, and are arguably in place again for 2010.
In addition, as soon as things are stable again, the economy looks OK, people feel they’ve had a few good years and things look ’safe’ then the Nation feels it can once again afford to revert to its natural choice, Labour. This was certainly the case in 1964 and again in 1997.
1122 - Hilarious seeing people pose as libertarians who think that the concept of national borders is so important. Even funnier that those who claim incorrectly that they are a libertarian often rant and rave about immigrants and so on.
Better to call these people ‘right wingers who want a nice sounding name’, they wouldn’t know liberty if it came up and quoted ‘On Liberty’ at them.
Here’s a clue - you don’t support violent intervention in other countries. If you do you are a neo-con with a little sticker on you saying ‘I want to be a libertarian but I haven’t got the guts’.
Be off with you, and never darken our doors again….
Regarding the war in Georgia. I think it’s an immensely complex situation. On the one hand, it is almost painfully reminiscent of Sudetenland, on the other it would be extremely dangerous to believe history is simply repeating itself.
Putin’s goals are relatively clear: he wants to reestablish influence over as many former Soviet republics as possible, regarding them basically as his property. This is for nationalistic reasons, but also because Russia’s newfound strength almost entirely depends on oil, and control over pipelines is of paramount importance.
To get his will, he uses oil, the presence of Russian minorities (no matter how small), and, if necessary, military force.
Using Russians as an excuse is indeed much like what Hitler did. It’s an incredibly perfidious game. What will happen? Russians will increasingly be seen as the Fifth Column of Putin, will be discriminated against, and that will strengthen Putin’s hand. It doesn’t always have to be outright invasion. Overwhelming military force and perceived moral superiority are helpful in negotiations, too.
I don’t see Putin having ambitions beyond his “backyard” though, and that is what makes the situation fundamentally different from the 1930s. Ultimately, the West (read: the US) will simply have to decide where to draw the line. As usual, the countries involved don’t get to have a say. If Georgia is worth saving, they will have to retreat now, ceding South Osetia and Abkhazia in return for NATO membership very very soon. Equally, the Ukraine would need a NATO and EU membership perspective in the near future. The rest will fall to Putin.
Maybe the silent implosion of the Soviet Union simply was too nice to be true after all.
35. See
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/16/rod-crosby-asks-will-regional-swings-help-the-tories/
48: with Ken on the sauce, looks like Galloway’s your (only) man.
121. lol. Your switch-around would have more force if it wasn’t ludicrously at variance with the facts.
The Tories held power for 45 years in the 20th century. The Labour party managed barely half of that; indeed they only achieved real success when they actually appointed a Tory as leader.
Apart from that, good point.
Guardian says Johnson/Cruddas will launch leadership joint ticket bid in last week August and first week September.
Link via my blog
[OR you can link directly from here...without going onto Tapestry's blog....MS]