Does Bayh’s Iraq war vote rule the favourite out?
August 12th, 2008
How could Barack choose someone with this record?
With the announcement of Obama’s V-P choice said to be getting quite imminent big question marks have been raised over the current strong favourite - Evan Bayh - the telegenic senator from Indiana who was a strong Clinton backer.
As the New York Times puts it: “Bayh’s support of authorizing force in Iraq stands in sharp contrast to Mr. Obama’s oft-stated view that he showed the good judgment to oppose the conflict from the start. After his vote, Mr. Bayh in early 2003 joined Mr. McCain as an honorary co-chairman of the Committee for the Liberation of Iraq, which made regime change in Iraq its central cause.”
Over the past fortnight the money has been going on Bayh and his price has tightened sharply. It’s now 2/1 on PaddyPower and 2.3/1 with Betfair.
It’s hard to see Obama continuing to point to his Iraq stance as evidence of his judgement and statesmanship and then choosing someone who went in totally the opposite direction. There’s also his supporter base to consider.
This is a very tough one to predict and the bookies will make a packet. Last night I got 25/1 on the ex Nato supreme commander, Wes Clark.
Mike Smithson
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Q. Now that Russia has shown itself, how will the US elections be affected?
He’s done a complete 180 on this issue though, which helps him a bit with liberals, although that might not be enough for the netroots.
I guess it depends on what direction he wants to take his campaign. It could strengthen his position as a centrist and a man willing to work with all positions. The anti-war mood isn’t as strong amongst the electorate as it was during the primaries and the Maliki comments and the reaction to them seemed to leave him in a pretty good position regarding the prospect of withdrawing troops. However, he seems to be aiming more at the left of his voters now. At least, with his celebrity endorsements and his employment of Joss Stone (a foreigner) to sing his campaign song, he doesn’t seem to be too concerned with moving to the centre.
O/T:
241. Forget all of that politics stuff!!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/12/3
Does that headline beat, ‘Freddie Starr Eat My Hamster’
yes or no ?
241. I suppose it is a case of the Shit hitting the fan!!!
by coldstone August 12th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
3. You were close by the way. “Cherub” was actually ancient Akkadian.
Justin says
“British and American aggression in Iraq was condemned throughout the world - it didn’t stop them doing it though!
The sheer humbug and hypocrisy of those who went along with that earlier evil act yet now condemn Russia is simply nauseating.”
Iraq was a dictatorship. Georgia is a Democracy.
Russia is also a dictatorship.
Quite different really.
Where is Ave it 08.. Watford won 1-0
Where is Ave it 08.. Watford won 1-0
A good point, Mike, but didn’t you see the extract of Michael Moore’s book in the Saturday Guardian ?? ?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/09/michael.moore.us.elections.barack.obama
Not sure if it is worth buying the whole book - but this article is MANDATORY READING FOR ANYONE BETTING ON THE US ELECTION !!
5. I was just thinking about the Bible. Akkadian, eh? Never heard of it. Time to get out the wikipedia.
New Hays Research poll for Alaska :
McCain 40% .. Obama 45% .. Nader 2%
http://www.haysresearch.com/080708.htm
11 - that will be a surprise if Obama was to carry Alaska.
New Gallup National poll :
McCain 38% .. Obama 45% .. Barr 1% .. Nader 1%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109435/Support-ThirdParty-Candidates-Appears-Limited-Thus-Far.aspx
From the last thread, I would have thought the UK would have been a good arguement against banning guns - we’ve obliterated out sports shooting, so that potential olympians have to train abroad and disarmed honest law-abiding citizens, while criminals appear to be able to shoot people at will. Definitely an improvement!
14 correction “our sports shooting”
Following Russia’s glorious victory over the expansionist Geordians, here is a little competition.
What are the tanks in this picture and what army did they belong to?
12 marcia. Alaska has been quite tight on the Toss Up McCain column and the recent GOP scandals there have kept Obama in the hunt. He’s also spent on some media buys there. This poll will keep McCain on defence in the state and might encourage Obama to pay a visit.
16
is it a russian t55 in afghanistan?
13. Why don’t the Americans have a set of “Lib-Dems”?
Not that I would wish that on anyone, but it might mix up this tedious GOP/DEM pendulum which everyone seems disatisfied and bored with.
Could make America more exciting…
Go on Clegg! Fight a few Congressional Districts!!
See the BBC has picked up the Number10 website failure (probably from Guido who hat-tipped Dizzy).
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7556955.stm
Liked the line “The site will feature exclusive video coverage of the prime minister’s speeches and media appearances.” Must bookmark that now, riveting stuff I’m sure.
Just hope that the web team remember (as they failed to earlier) that its a taxpayer funded site and that its only his PM speeches not those he gives as Labour leader that should be included.
16 “the expansionist Geordians….”
They won’t be happy until the boundaries of Newcastle reach Surrey…
Socrates, I’m surprised at you, once again, but this time for your advocacy for the use of anthrax spores for self-defense as protected by the 2nd Amendment. No self-respecting well-regulated militia would loading its muskets with anthrax, no matter what you’ve been reading in the New York Times. We are glad to have you here in the U.S. and are impressed by your spirited exuberance and independence of mind, but there are limits on your freedom even in the land of liberty.
No it wont affect the choice. At least it shouldnt.
On a related issue of sorts, well done to the Ukranian lerader turning up in Tblisi whilst Russia goes about threarening to have a go at another part of Georgia.
16. it looks like a T-90 style number with reactive armour. The Georgians sdo have T-72s though which are not dissimilar
In response to Mike’s article, it would seem that Obama has little choice but to choose someone who has been in substantial disagreement of some kind or other with him if he wants someone who 1) broadens his appeal and 2) has a depth of political experience exceeding his own. Based on Bayh meeting these highly desirable criteria, I’d say that the benefit of choosing Bayh outweighs the possible harm. And when you go through the list of alternatives, I’m not sure who jumps out that doesn’t leave Bayh as the lesser of the evils.
23. Thus, assuming the pic is from the current conflict, its probably Russian unless the Georgian’s have bought some like last week…
There’s a snippet on the veep_watch section of RCP which makes it even clearer than the light of day that Clinton will not be Obama’s running mate - as if anyone with half a brain didn’t know that already. The gist of it is that she’s down to be keynote speaker for day 2 of the DNC, and as the Veep candidate is keynote speaker for day 3, it can’t be her.
24. Warner.
27. Who was always better than Kaine.
I’ve always thought that one element that would factor into Obama’s VP choice would be ‘how to keep the Hillary supporters happy without picking Hillary’. (That said - I don’t think it’s actually massively important. I think the number of angry Hillary supporters who will not vote for Barack in the Pres Election is insignificant)
Anyway, I still think it could be a factor. Which is why I think Clark would be a good VP choice. Could easily be persuaded to let Hillary run for President in 2012/2016. His endorsement of Sebelius and criticisms of McCain would make it unlikely I’d have thought.
Chuck Hagel fits nicely into this too - no better way to tell Democrats that Hillary will have the best shot next time than having a Republican as VP.
5 - Robot - Czech
Ombudsman - Swedis
don’t know your others, Socrates.
30 sorry Ketchup Malay
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/08/13/2333441.htm?section=world
Tsvangirai left out of Zim power-sharing deal: reports
11. 13. Thanks Jack, you’ve made my day. 5 point lead in Alaska and 7 point lead Nation wide, that bodes well.
Cherub - Akkadian
Minstrel - Occitan
Lawn - Gaulish
Cigarette - Mayan
22. Any Texan will tell *this* is the only kind of personal weapon that is any fun…..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Davy_Crockett_bomb.jpg
27- But Warner seems to have fallen off the radar screen. Were it not for that, I would actually put him at the top of my list, followed by Bayh.
18 I see where you are coming from. Could also be a twisted bit of tin from Iraq… We are a bit accustomed to pics of russian tank scrap.
23 “16. it looks like a T-90 style number with reactive armour. The Georgians sdo have T-72s though which are not dissimilar”
The egg boxes stuck on the turret could be stuck anywhere - although mud guards and turret give it away.
Looks like the Geordies werent intimidated and put up a fight.
11. Paddypower offer 25/1 for the Dems to take Alaska! They only let me get a few quid on most political markets, but hopefully others can get a bit more on. There’s plenty of other state markets up. I’ll see if there’s any other value bets in there.
36. You don’t think that could be telling?
I’m coming around to the thought that Warner is a very smart bet. I don’t think Kaine has the edge over Bayh. Hagel for one term, to allow him to choose a succession VP for his re-election? Maybe, but I think he’ll put Republicans in the Cabinet, where he can fire them. Bloomberg would be a stretch.
As Hillary is speaking Tuesday night she can’t be VP? They’d switch her to Weds if she was chosen. Michelle Obama is speaking in the keynote on Monday, Hillary Tuesday, VP Wednesday, Obama Thursday. If Hillary isn’t the VP, I don’t think it will be a woman - you balance your keynote speakers, and if the VP choice was a woman, but not Hillary, I don’t think they would have given Michelle Obama the slot.
Anyway, off to bed. Night all.
36. Did you actually have a weak point for Bloomberg, other than you don’t think Obama would pick him? Do you feel him damaging the ticket any way?
36 - That’s why he’s likely.
37, most tanks deploy reactive armour these days..what gives it difference from the the T-72, most models anyway is the gun.
36 I’d have thought Kaine as a former missionary would help a bit. Hard to paint him as a Dukakis liberal.
42- But why has he fallen off the radar screen? He seems like a perfect choice, so why do the chattering classes have nothing to say about him? It’s very strange indeed if he is really about to be chosen.
41- Bloomberg is a New York Jewish billionaire party-hopping opportunist presiding over a city in decline, but other than that, I have no reason to believe he would be anything other than an ideal VP for Obama.
what army did they belong to?
They all (T55,72,90etc) originally belonged to the Red Army (prop.M.Gorby) and then, in some cases, found there way elsewhere.
Why the f*cking f*ck does the telegraph keep on producing ridiculous headlines about Russia ‘rewriting the map of Europe’ or ‘altering the balance of power in Europe’. Georgia is not in Europe. It is also not in the EU.
It’s just a tabloid rag these days. Why did the Barclay brothers buy it? To wreck it? They’ve done the same for the Spectator which now reads like a lifestyle magazine for posh twits.
46. Being Jewish would surely help. Being bipartisan would surely help. Being a billionaire would surely help.
41- Bloomberg is a New York Jewish billionaire party-hopping opportunist presiding over a city in decline, but other than that, I have no reason to believe he would be anything other than an ideal VP for Obama.
by Stars and Stripes August 12th, 2008 at 11:11 pm
- A city in decline? One of the top financial capitals and world city always in top ten rankings. You want to sell. How much?
Last post before sleep. Look at this backwards.
Who would the GOP least like to see on the ticket with Obama?
Bayh they could tolerate. Kaine they wouldn’t fear.
If I were John McCain, the person I’d least like to see giving a speech on the 28th August would be Mark Warner.
I’m suprised they’ve done so well at keeping him out the limelight if it is him - but that would be what they would want to do. I think he’s an inspired choice.
44. Kaine speaks fluent Spanish as well, which is useful in the sunbelt.
51. I think the killer thing about Warner is that he’s well liked by both moderates and the netroots. That tells you he’s a heck of a politician.
51- I agree with you completely. But again, the question about why everyone has been ignoring him… Anyone? Anyone?
49- Why would being Jewish surely help? Obama sews up the black vote for the Democrats, so all that’s left is to sew up the Jewish vote?
He isn’t bipartisan, he’s a party-switching opportunist. This is a critical distinction between a man of principle who works acrosss party lines and a guy who switches parties whenever it suits his political interests (first a Democrat, then a Republican, now an Independent… and then a Democrat again?). These are two completely different types of figures.
And as for his billions, Obama doesn’t need them. He is already on track to outspend McCain by a country mile. What he does need is someone who can appeal to and reassure white centrists. A Jewish billionaire from New York City does not do this for Obama.
54 - He said he didn’t want to uproot his family and go to Washington. By taking the Senate seat they can stay in Virginia. Most people have taken him at his word, but it is far from being an irreversable position. If it were him, they would want the cover of red herrigns like Kaine and Bayh so as to finish vetting him.
As Huckabee said, everyone says they aren’t interested in the Vice Presidency, but how many people ever turn it down?
Socrates suggested this when we were wondering why Kaine was being given as such an obvious tease to the media - drop him into the Senate race, as he is limited to one term (that expires in 2010 anyway). He gets a job lasting an extra four years, Dems keep the likely Senate gain, he has a great Gov/Sen CV. Top that with Warner more likely to appeal in the South, more qualified, and more likely to win Virginia for Obama. Better lookin’, too…
Really am sleeping now.
43. Yokel, the Georgian’s are crediting support from the Israeli’s for a lot of their success taking out 50 Russian tanks, which seems pretty impressive given the huge mismatch.
http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/WTARC/2008/eu_georgia0419_08_11.asp
I’m also intrigued how this whole scenario playing out seems to mirror a lot of the plot for a Tom Clancy derived video game.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Clancy%27s_Ghost_Recon_(video_game)#Ghost_Recon
56- Good night, Morus. This is a brilliant theory, but the Warner/Kaine switcheroo is 1) not as sure to keep the seat Democratic as some may think, largely because of the lateness in the game and 2) not a big deal anyway if Obama wants Warner; if Obama wants him, he takes him. The bigger question is if Warner was sincere in his lack of desire to uproot his family. If he’s being honest about this, Obama will have to respect his decision. If he’s just being coy, Obama should take him. This is impossible for us to know, however.
4. I dunno - there were some great headliines last week when the woman who got notoriety in the late 70s for kidnapping a Mormon missionary had her pit bull terriers cloned.
14. Why do the USA never win medals for shooting in the Olympics, when they have so many guns? Can they only shoot things the size of a deer or bigger?
55. I think I should just accept that you’re closer to the average American independent than I am on this.
50- By that logic, Bush is a great president because he presides over the most powerful nation on Earth.
47 50 tanks and 11 aircraft?! Not a bad tally.
I read also that Russia loses 700,000 population per year.
Big country, big border, small population…
Tommorows times report Labour struck a deal on their massive party debts:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4518062.ece
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/peter_riddell/article4516518.ece
Poor old LD’s are not having a good time of it, abandoning seats like to go Tory, then trying to moot tax cuts as an electoral boon, then announcing Labour are the target when Labour have renogatiated the finance of their election campaign. 2015 is probably after the next election after the next election!
Why does everybody seem to have fallen for the Russian lie that it was the Georgian’s that started this? Are we really supposed to believe that the Russian’s were able to mobilise this volume of equipment this quickly based on a Georgian response to South Ossetian shelling? It is blindingly obvious that if the Russian’s weren’t expecting to have to cross the border, the Roki tunnel would have been blocked in minutes by broken down 30 year old Russian equipment. Forget the billions Russia has invested in equipment, much of that will be on weapons systems that are either still in development or are simply improvements to existing weapons platforms. They were still using T-72 and T-90 tanks built in the 1970s, just as we are still using Challengers designed for war fighting in German forests rather than Iraqi or Afghan battlefields.
Sorry for the long post but the BBC and others all seem to be falling for what looks like a Russian lie - have I missed something?
57 A good article in the Times on Russian actions (well IMHO a good article because I think he’s right about Russia having gained a tactical victory but a longer term loss).
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4517727.ece
64 “Sorry for the long post but the BBC and others all seem to be falling for what looks like a Russian lie - have I missed something?”
Bolshevic Broadcasting Communists?
No. Missed nothing.
Its Nothing new.
64. I QUITE AGREE! You think how long it took to prep for the gulf war I & II. Even the second time when the Iraqi Forces were heavily resricted to GWI losses it did not happen as quickly as this!
The Russian’s are still as bad as the commies pre-1984 IMO. Perhaps mainly because the leaders of Russia are from the ‘evil empire’ period of the Soviet state. It’s difficult to know how to deal with them, they are like a muscle bound/powerful autistic child (Or Attention deficiet disorder child)!
66/67 I kind of expect it from the BBC, but I really don’t expect the same sort of gullability from C4 and everyone else. There is simply no way that this is anything other than a Russian trap and the Georgians fell right into it. Russia planned to annex huge parts of Georgia - quite how they’d react if Georgia had annexed Chechnya we can only guess!
SUrely the world hasn’t really been fooled by Russian propoganda? Is the west simply appearing to fall for it because it is easier than accepting the truth - that Russia is prepared to use military force against any country it wishes to in order to prevent them falling into the NATO sphere of influence. Given comments made by United Russia about Ukraine, and their interference in the elections there, I’d be concerned about this conflict rapidly moving around the Balkans - Crimea is mostly Russian speaking with Russian passports…
BTW did anyone spot Lord Owen making a tit of himself on R4 at the weekend, stating that Georgia had no borders with NATO, completely forgetting Turkey…
69 for Balkans, read Black Sea. Sorry, late at night!
On thread - Mike, several weeks ago you said you weren’t voting on the VP selection. Your reasoning was that so much of the choice depended on personal relationships, something which is impossible to objectively analyse. That was sound, nothing I have heard since to change that. I’m surprised you succumbed to temptation!
69. David Owen - Funny bloke - One of my lecturers at university said (he was an Liberal/Alliance) said he drove Owen round on a visit of a particular seat and Owen spent most of the time smiling at his own reflection!
My lecturer said he was tempted to say to owen that he was glad there were no curtains up in the way of his reflection otherwise he would not enjoy the sight seeing!
64: Actually, it’s quite clear they weren’t remotely ready. Took 3 days to mobilise any serious forces, beyond their basic 24 hour response units. Similarly, the Black Sea fleet didn’t move for days.
73 They had several hundred T-72 and T-90 tanks in South Ossetia within 24hours. Yes, it’s taken a week to push more troops in Abkhazia, but I suspect that is more that they didn’t expect Georgian resistance - likewise the Black Sea Fleet - something that could provide a flashpoint with Ukraine, given the request that Russia doesn’t use Ukraine based forces to attack Georgia. Let’s not forget that they have violated Georgian borders, borders which ever Russia recognises. Their attempts to liken this to Kosovo are abhorrent. To Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are like Chechnya. Moreover Abkhazia (and probably SO as well) are responsible for a huge increase in smuggling in the Eastern Black Sea, providing a key link in the chain of Heroin and people from Central Asia to Europe.
74: Yes, but those are forces permanently based in and the immediate area, have been for decades. All the kit that was housed in Russia’s old bases in Georgia (including the one in Adjara that only closed recently) got relocated across the Caucasus. On top of that, Chechnya is under 100 miles away, and there’s certainly no shortage of forces there.
Russia has known well about Georgia’s up to date weaponry as well - they’ve been bitterly complaining to the Israelis and Ukrainians for the last year about it. There’s no way they’d be caught so woefully unprepared on the ground as they have been, let alone the lack of air power at first.
O/T - Around 900 comments since I was on here last night having worked all day. The rest of you must be making a mint on betting to be able to spend so much time on here!
Right… I’m a long-time lurker on here, and I’ve decided to try and understand some of the betting side of things - my challenge for today is lay bets.
Playing around with Betfair on one of tomorrow’s horse races (first market that came to hand - but appears to be simple enough for me to try get an understanding of how the principles work) highlights:
Horse A - Lay Price: 5.1
Horse B - Lay Price: 7
Horse C - Lay Price: 7.4
Assuming I lay the minimum stake of £2 on each of these it would suggest the following possible outcomes:
(i) Horse A wins - I lose the bet on it (£8.20), but win on the B & C bets (£14 + £14.80): a net gain of £20.60
(ii) Horse B wins - I lose the bet on it (£12), but win on the A & C bets (£10.20 + £14.80): a net gain of £13
(iii) Horse C wins - I lose the bet on that (£12.8)), but win on the A & B bets (£10.20 + £14.80): a net gain of £12.20
(iv) a Horse other than A, B or C wins, all three of my lay bets win, and I have a net gain of £39.
I feel as though I may have missed something in teaching myself this but I can’t pinpoint where it is. Unless I appear to have found the magic of “value” in my first ever explore into the area…?! Advice and comment gratefully received.
77. (i) If Horse A wins you lose the bet on it (£8.20) but win on the B & C bets (£2 + £2): net LOSS £4.20.
77. Best way of looking at it is as follows:
By laying you are accepting a £2 bet from a 3rd Party who is backing the horse to win.
So if horse loses you win £2.
75. The Russians have been building up forces on the border over the last few months, something the Georgians have been complaining about like mad! I don’t believe they have been caught unprepared on the ground at all. It is quite clear this was intentional and has been a cynical attempt to take control of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, if not by possession then by influence. The Russians hate this pipeline which allows Europe access to Central Asian oil without going through Russia.
What right does Russia have to “bitterly complain” about Georgia buying up to date weaponry? That is like pre war Germany complaining about French weaponry!
Mike L - cheers. Knew I was missing something…
80: “What right does Russia have to “bitterly complain” about Georgia buying up to date weaponry?”
Doesn’t really matter - the point was that the Russian forces were severely short at first, despite full knowledge of how dangerous the Georgian kit was. That’s why they’ve lost so many tanks and aircraft.
A “Russian buildup” also makes no sense at all. They could just sit on the other side of the tunnel, within Russian territory, and the Georgians would be no wiser. Clearly that wasn’t the case though - go have a read of the big thread on ARRSE for a breakdown of the completely inappropriate kit and forces the Russians had to throw into combat initially.
How do I become Warner? Well, you obviously can’t tell yourself to be a confident trader. You will end up chased Labour. Stick with Russian actions for Russia.
Bayh’s vote only matters if you think that Hillary’s vote would have stopped her saying that the war was wrong in her campaign. It didn’t. In fact, for a Veep it’s even better. He can say: “Mr McCain, I’m man enough to say that I got the war vote wrong. Are you man enough to do the same?’ Bayh still has obviously strengths, including the fact that Indiana is a swing state.
The fact that Wednesday at the convention is ‘Veterans’ Night’ can’t help Kaine or Sibelius, and Warner is speaking the day before (two Virginians in a row? Sorry Kaine…). I have put a little bit of money on Joe Biden and will make a lot if it is either Bayh (who I tipped here some time ago) or the Senator from Delaware.