Will Barack’s V-P be chosen to lock the Clintons in?
August 14th, 2008
Why is Bill due to speak just before just before the V-P nominee?
An intriguing piece of news overnight is the report that Bill Clinton, whose relationship with Obama has never been easy, has been given the slot at the Denver convention just before the V-P nominee.
This can only mean, surely, that the chosen person is totally acceptable to the Clintons and, indeed, might be a major part of the healing between the two factions that has become so necessary. For even in the run-up to Denver there’s been talk of pro-Hillary demonstrations and demands for roll call votes by many of her supporters who have yet to reconcile themselves fully with the outcome of the primary process.
So given that it’s a near certainty that the running mate will not be Hillary then, surely, the choice is someone who enables Bill to be brought on board?
What better person than Wes Clark - the former Supreme Allied Commander, Europe - who like Clinton was a fellow Rhodes scholar at Oxford and who also grew up in Arkansas? He has also known Bill for forty years.
As Jonathan Allen on VP Watch notes: “Clark endorsed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, and he has been so closely identified with the Clintons that it would be hard for them to be anything less than fully supportive of the ticket if he were on it.”
As was noted here on Monday the V-P conference speech is on a day devoted to “security” and no doubt the former President would like to contrast the success of his foreign policy in Kosovo with the Bush record on Iraq. Wes Clark, of course, was in charge in Kosovo.
Mike Smithson
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First comment, perhaps…..
Is it a “near certainty” that the VP won’t be Hilary? Just imagine Bill firing up the crowds for her?
But, yes, I agree that this means that it must be someone entirely acceptable to the Clintons.
Does Wes Clark really help Obama win the election or does he merely ensure it will be fought on ground that favours McCain?
As we get closer to the convention, the number of possible VP candidates is quickly dwindling; I’d say Clark is in the top 3 likely possibilities, alongside probably Bayh and Kaine. At least, those are the names that have been mentioned the most this past week, and each is pretty plausible.
To me, Clark is actually the most likely choice. His positives are clear: he strengthens Obama on foreign policy and national security issues, and he helps bring the Clintons (and their supporters) onside. His negatives are less obvious, though it is true he’s been somewhat outspoken lately (see the link above). And then there’s the fact that the VP speech is titled ‘Securing America’s Future’… it doesn’t seem like a coincidence that that was Clark’s old slogan.
This speculation could still turn out to be wrong, and Obama may yet surprise us with his VP pick; but he could certainly do a lot worse than Wesley Clark.
Great choice - read Gen Jackson’s comments on him and his trigger happy fingers.
Presumably if Obama has made his choice, the Clintons are probably be in on the decision, but neither is an absolute certainty. The simple fact is that Bill really can’t turn down the offer to speak at such a key moment if he values his reputation - something which he didn’t do many favours while campaigning for his wife and could do with a bit of restoring.
If there are pro-Hillary demonstrations or if Clinton was perceived to have snubbed Obama or his running-mate, then if McCain goes on to win in the Autumn, those divisions or lack of support will be one of the key factors that would be blamed for the loss. Bill is still loved by large sections of the Democrats though his star isn’t quite as high as it once was as a lot feel they’ve found a new one. Obama really has to ask him to speak, because of his seniority, his connection to the principal defeated Democrat candidate and his remaining popularity. For much the same reasons, I don’t think he could risk refusing.
All that said, it would seem perverse were he to be given that particular slot were he or Hillary to have severe reservations about the nominee for VP (something which could itself risk upsetting the projection of unity) - Obama can only push party loyalty so far.
As for Clark, I’d agree that he’s a possible and 25/1 seems pretty good value, but it’s too much of a lottery for my liking and I’ll leave it to braver souls to try and make a profit out of this one.
Wes Clark suffered in 2003 from his ex-boss Gen Shelton’s remarks “”I’ve known Wes for a long time. I will tell you the reason he came out of Europe early [i.e., was forced to step down as commander of U.S. forces in Europe] had to do with integrity and character issues, things that are very near and dear to my heart. I’m not going to say whether I’m a Republican or a Democrat. I’ll just say Wes won’t get my vote.”
As the Slate article says Shelton didn’t expand on why but if there is substance to Shelton’s slur on Clark’s integrity and character then that could prove damaging in the campaign.
http://www.slate.com/id/2089014/
2. Bingo. Plus, Clark is the exact opposite of “do no harm”. Obama might choose him (though I very much doubt it), but he substantially reduces Obama’s ability to win the election.
V-P Market
Mika Smithsona wrote : “The smartest ones are those who have kept well out”
No way! — for the smart ones are those who laid the favorites when they were — shortly — favorites @ 2 to 1, or 2.5 to 1:
– Hillary
– Webb
– Kaine
And now Bayh…
Even mista Smithson himself wrote that “the bookies will make a packet”.
So: the smart ones played like more or less a bookie…
What Hill and Bill say publicly and what they are up to behind the scenes are two very different things.
I’m taking what the US MSM is reporting at the moment with a pinch of salt.
What is clear is that Clinton supporters will try to rain on Barry’s parade at the DNC.
It’s not over ’til the fat lady sings.
At the moment, after the Edward’s scandal, I’m more interested in Obama superstar and his eligibility to run at all. As I’ve noted here:
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/08/obamas-fake-birth-certificate.html
From RCP
McCain Was Right About Putin - Jack Kelly, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/mccain_is_our_churchill.html
We Are All Georgians - John McCain, Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121867081398238807.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Politico: Swift Boat author plagues Obama campaign
“Four years ago this month, the release of a critical book by Jerome R. Corsi undercut the cornerstone of Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry’s campaign narrative, his military service in Vietnam.
Now, Corsi has reappeared with another popular book, “The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality,”"…
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12528.html
OBAMA/McCAIN — WIN PERCENTAGE
-> Intrade (last trade): 60.4 / 36.3 %
-> Betfair (last trade): 65.36 / 30.77 %
-> 538.com (projection): 65.8 / 34.2 %
I find it very strange that on betfair, Obama seems to have the momentum now, while the geopolitical events clearly favor McCain…
What’s going on?
When do we get the first of the presidential debates?
I would be surprised if Obama did not come out on top in these things, although the wild card maybe McCain and his age & experience : A Reaganest “My opponents youth and inexperience…..”
8 (& 186 previous thread) re laying the favourite.
In markets like this one, where you have an open field, a distant settlement date, and emotion-led speculation, there is usually a succession of different favourites and it can be profitable to lay each of them in turn. Even if you lay the eventual winner, which is quite likely, you should still make a profit on the others. To be safe, you can back each one to save your stake or lock in a profit once they drift (and fortunately I did just that with McCain).
Other lay-the-leader markets include reality television shows, next football manager, and even next party leader, to bring it back on topic.
Betfair realises there will only be one winner, so you only need tie up your stake to cover your biggest loser. So if, for Republican candidate, you had laid Giuliani at even money for a thousand pounds, that would tie up £1,000 (obviously) but you could then have laid McCain to lose a thousand without increasing the amount tied up, and so on.
The Kinnock Test!:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article4525842.ece
I would tend to agree with this comment by Fink. in the times, Kinnock was unfit for office and alas the UK got another 5 years of Tory Government!
Actually i rather miss the Labour spokesman on the Telly going on about “the Tory Government”!
From wikipedia on Wes Clark -
Clark has said that he began to truly define his politics only after his military retirement in 2000 around the 2000 presidential election that would give George W. Bush the presidency. Clark had a conversation with Condoleezza Rice. She told him that the war in Kosovo would have never taken place under a Bush administration…
Clark…. believed more in the interventionist policies of the Clinton administration. He said he would see it as a sign that things were “starting to go wrong” with American foreign policy if Bush was elected.[90]
Clark supported the administration’s War in Afghanistan in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks but did not support the Iraq War. Clark continued to warn people as a commentator on CNN that he believed the United States was undermanned in Iraq, and has said the war was “never [about]… WMD or regime change,” and believes “the connection to the War on Terrorism was not shown.”
Clark wrote that he believed other generals were jealous of his natural high intelligence, and were quick to attack him…
He seems a good choice for Obama as an effective military man, who would avoid wrong wars, and fight the right ones.
Wouldn’t this be rubbing salt into an open wound!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/aug/14/generalmotors.automotive
17. Perhaps, but it’s the natural consequence of running consistent trade deficits - they can only be sustained by attracting foreign investment into a country i.e. selling off capital. That said, this is surely a bad time to buy Hummer?
EVIL DICK!
“I have information that Vice-President Dick Cheney was the brain behind the Georgian attack,” said Kremlin-connected Deputy Sergei Markov, who also heads the Institute of Political Analysis in Moscow. “The true goal of the operation was not to seize South Ossetia, but to trigger a full-scale conflict between Russia and the West.”
… Mr. Saakashvili has become a pawn in the U.S. presidential election game. A senior Russian parliamentarian said the neo-conservatives in the Bush administration prodded the emotionally unstable and arrogant Georgian leader into the armed misadventure to help Republican John McCain win points in the race against his Democratic rival, Barack Obama.
http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/14/stories/2008081455901000.htm
Of course, this conspiracy-paranoid theory is penned by a left-wing, neo-internationalist Russian journalist…
Wesley “World War 3″ Clark?
Bring it on!
14 - “Other lay-the-leader markets include reality television shows, next football manager, and even next party leader, to bring it back on topic.”
Interesting… thanks!
OMG : the Obama Campaign seems to buy into the left-wing, neo-internationalist conspiracy theory…
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/08/13/team-obama-blames-georgia-on-mccain/
16 War in Iraq never about “regime change”? that’s worrying because that was what it was about. Most generals were against Rumsfeld’s ideas on using overwhelming air & missile power backed by smaller ground forces and the experience in Iraq bears out their concerns.
What has struck me in case of Georgia is the similarity in Brown and Bush’s responses to crises. Thatcher, Clinton, Blair even Major would have responded with a press conference within hours. 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina showed up Bush as it was days before he seemed to comprehend a course of action - depending on subordinates to do the immediate stuff. Gordon also seems to need time to decide a response, in his fire, floods and plague first month his personal inaction came across as comforting as people believed he was competent and the subordinates were dealing. Later crises exposed this and the ditherer label seemed applicable.
In the UK economy, Darling proves he has learned nothing from Volcker and Howe..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article4518306.ece?Submitted=true
23 - Quite, if it wasn’t about WMD OR “Regime Change” then that doesn’t leave much…
It’s the reasons for Regime Change which are up for dispute.
New SUSA poll for Washington State :
McCain 44% .. Obama 51%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=90e886e0-135a-4500-9712-e7be3427399c
25. I doubt Wes Clark would have encouraged Georgia to stir up Russia, or have pressed ahead with Kosovan independence, or have gone into Iraq. Imagine a world without all these George Bush-created problems.
And what if instead a proper job had been done in Afghanistan. It’s never too late, maybe, to get things right.
If Obama picks Clark, it might be a good choice, and a sign that Obama knows how to pick the right people - the most important quality in any leader. Could this be the return of IQ to American government? It’s about time.
I think Clark would be a dreadful pick. He brings nothing to the table for Obama. I can’t believe Pbama would choose him.
I’m with test; Clark was an abysmal campaigner last time around. He highlights Obama’s foreign policy weaknesses. There are potential skeletons in the cupboard. And he brings no real executive experience or record.
Assuming (and it’s an awful big assumption) an Obama presidency, it’s hard to what he brings as VP.
My personal top two most likely are:
1. Warner
2. Bloomberg
(Bloomberg has, of course, been courted by both candidates. Thus, a small bet on him to be next VP covers both sides of the fence.)
As far as betting on this goes, watch the aviation blogs and forums. Last time around it was one of those that spotted the decals on the Kerry plane said Kerry-Edwards.
re 29 Hey son - you are supposed to support your old Dad!
Well! its good to see that those, ‘Friends of Dave’ who want to dump the North, have gotten some support from dear ‘ol Kelvin.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kelvin_mackenzie/article1555358.ece
Do you think Kelvin will start a ‘Southern League’ although his last attempt to enter politics wasn’t too successful.
29/30 Me thinks Smithson junior is correct here. Our Wes is a piss poor campaigner and liable to explosive gaffes.
Highlight of the day so far this morning was the sight, on the Beeb Olympic coverage, of Sir Steve Redgrave and John Inverdale looking like a pair of pixies in matching white and baby blue rain suits !!
30; quiet morning, Dad. And, when you are right (reasonably often, for an old guy) I support you.
29. With Putin in power in Russia you need a military man as VP. Yes Clark’s not much of a politician’s politician with a tendency to imagine that reality has a bearing on events. But after Bush and Blair, a dose of reality might actually be required.
His lack of political shenanigans is only to be expected in someone with a more practical approach to problems.
Obama will do the politics anyway. What Obama needs at his side is someone who gives the right advice. Who would you prefer? Rumsfeld?
27-But #16 says the opposite.
He is against intervention in Iraq but for intervention in Kosovo. What is the difference? How can he have it both ways? And now it turns out he was never for Kosovo independence? Is this why he set about undoing the Serbian state apparatus there?
The only way out is to do a Robin Cook and die and be lauded for your “statesmanship”.
I think Wes Clark would be a loose cannon and the worst VP choice since McGovern’s in 1972.
Tapestry; of course, Obama is going for a whole new style of government where the only person he listens to is his VP.
Silly me.
34 - I think presidential nominees should justify their veep pick the Jed Bartlett way, “I might die”. To me Wes Clark doesn’t satisfy that. He might be a good choice at the State department but I wouldn’t want him one shot removed from the Presidency.
I’d be careful about declaring Kosovo a great success, but your point is well made. If Hillary can’t be given a top job in a Democrat government, then using her connections and opinion on the V-P slot might keep her onside.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
O/T - They really should have used a dictionary, or a spell-checker or maybe a proof reader!
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2008/08/14/the-latest-hip-words-make-it-to-chanbers-dictionary-91466-21529907/
All Wes Clark. is really for: Ballist - A man to supply experience and hard headed decision making to Obama’s youth and inexperience. Funnily enough the more i see of Obama, the more i think he is the right man for the job providing he can meet all the military criteria. The US. Presidency needs a man not afraid to send the troops in and execute war. Unfortunatly for the US. they will always be called upon to intervene as the Worlds sole super-power. Russia is not a super-power in miltary terms. It has Nuclear weapons but most of its conventional forces are shit and the replacement equipment is on a far smaller scale than previously seen in the times of the USSR. China again is not a super-power: Both China and Russia are regional powers there ability to assend the globe has either evapourated or never existed.
I do hope you manage to make a bit of money on it Mike - after all these months of telling us that betting on the V-P nomination was a mug’s game it would be a nicely ironical outcome.
‘Bookies tipping Andy Kerr as Iain Gray wins Labour nominations battle’
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/08/14/bookies-tipping-andy-kerr-as-iain-gray-wins-labour-nominations-battle-86908-20696371/
‘Gray tops MSP nominations in bid to lead Labour at Holyrood’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2424737.0.Gray_tops_MSP_nominations_in_bid_to_lead_Labour_at_Holyrood.php
‘Widespread support boosts Gray’s ranking as favourite to lead Labour’
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Widespread–support–.4388568.jp
31 - *sigh* - we’ve been through this Coldstone - the report was authored by a Lib Dem and friend of Nick Clegg.
I suppose the Russian invasion of Georgia was the Tories’ fault too?
It’s either Bayh or Biden. Mark it.
Ladbrokes - Next Scottish Labour Party Leader - current prices
Andy Kerr 2.25
Iain Gray 2.50
Cathy Jamieson 3.75
I mentioned Wag The Dog when the trouble in Georgia first broke out. I can’t help thinking that one of the biggest effects of a war somewhere that most people had never heard of was to change the dynamics of the Presidential race. The question that I can’t answer is whether this was intended and if so by who.
O/T - Germany, France and Italy have negative growth…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7560200.stm
31. Kelvin is full of Shit! I disagreed with the report: It is not a Tory document anyway.
I still think the best way to deal with weak economies in the north is to develop super- enterprise areas. Indeed one could succesfully create skill acquisition hubs, that is centre’s that are in direct comunication with employers who suffer a shotage of particular skills. It never ceases to amaze me how employers moan about people not having the skills but do nothing about it! Even more strange is when they moan about not having people with the skills/qualifications and there are people like me who they turn a blind eye too.
47 - On the plus side, the British economy is now probably sufficiently aligned with those economied that it could join the Euro.
43
Sorry! I think that the report says lots of good things.
43 The present system has obviously failed, the South feels no kinship with the North and vice-versa. I certainly having been born in Surrey, spent my childhood in S.Wales, my adolescence in S.Devon, (The armed forces) and most of my working life in London, living in Surrey, don’t know the North and care about it even less.
The United Kingdom,(is it?) has obviously come to the end of the line, its time to think of moving on.
With that break up, will come new political parties that will hopefully reflect the realities of the 21st century.
Kelvin would probably get a lot of support for his, ‘Southern League’ certainly in London, where, W**s begin at Watford!
47 I’m sure the French are as comforted by their Finance Minister as we are by ours:
“”The fundamentals of the French economy are healthy,” she added.”
47. Which means we are going to follow!
29 Bloomberg? Doesn’t bring balance except amongst UK Lib Dems. Probably Treasury Secretary whoever wins. AS for Clark who cares if he’s not a great Campaigner Obama can do that. A VP is there to look serious and never overshadow the nominee. Besides if necessary Obama can just ignore the tactical consideration of Clark’s campaigning for the vastly more important objective as Mr Smithson suggests of locking the Clinton supporters into the campaign. Above all that spat with McCain highlighted that if necessary he can be an attack dog on NS issues. His record more than enables hhim to take on McCain in that area.
50. The cities were mainly in England that the report referred too.
Maybe you should move North as it would mean you could continue to live under socialism!
53. I quite agree Clark is a bit like Bush’s Dick!
46. I agree. It’s almost become dangerous to say it, such is the assmumption on this side of the pond that Obama is a certainty but IMO continuing trouble with the old enemy means good news for McCain.
54. Yes - don’t stop until you reach Sweden…
54
I didn’t say they weren’t in England, but the South of England, (I now live on the South Coast) is not the same as the North of England.
Many people in the South feel more at home in other parts of Europe than they do in the North.
Offered the choice of living in the North of England or France/Italy etc, guess where they’d choose?
As for living under socialism, I couldn’t care less, socialism, like conservatism is difficult to define in party political terms anyway, Cameron for instance is a Whig or paternalistic socialist.
http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/index.html
Can someone explain what CNN mean when they say that their poll of polls “does not have a sampling error”?
@59:
It doesn’t mean anything because it’s untrue.
59 Eddie. It’s a statistical average of the named polls and thus doesn’t have a sampling error.
@61:
A composite index’s sampling error is a weighted sum of squares of the sampling error of underlyings.
59: As Jack W says, it means they can’t quote a figure for sampling error because it’s an average, not a random poll, not that the figures don’t include any sampling error.
Well Coldstone you’re missing out. There are fewer finer places on earth than the north of England; endless acres of beautiful scenery and five of the most cheerful cities in Europe.
Of course, there are some grotty bits too, but you’re never far from somewhere good.
*leaves room to strains of brass band*
62: Stop it, they’ll hear you. Don’t for God’s sake encourage media outlets to publish spurious margins of error.
@63:
They can calculate the poll’s sampling error, but they’ve chose instead to falsely clainm it doesn’t have one.
Now, I’m not sure if they’re being disingenuous or incompetent, but it ain’t pretty.
In any case the CNN “poll” pales into insignificance compared to the majesty and magnificence of ARSE(BUTT) entwined with the delicious decadence of a dish of SOAMES BIG MAC weighting !!
I think Mike’s usual point that the VP market is so random - i.e. down to the personal choice of a single individual - that I have also kept out of the VP markets. However, the point about ‘locking in the Clintons’ is hugely important here, and Mike’s tips are usually very profitable, (for me!) so I have pitched my £15 on Clark with Betfair @ 5.8
However, one point that nobody has mentioned is whether Clark would ‘bring a state’ with him? Does Clark represent a state or have any ability to deliver an important one for the Dems?
O/T Betfair has options for ‘winner of each state’ and there is free money available for anyone with knowledge of which states tend to lean which way. I personally don’t buy the hype about Virginia and Indiana being competitive, as these have been strongly Republican states for the last 30-40 years. (Only a Dem VP choice from one of these might put it in play) Likewise Montana for the GOP and I can’t see Michigan and Wisconsin as anything other than Democrat.
@67:
Any margin of error in the BUTT is merely an operational detail, and any discrepancy between any election living or dead is further evidence of the lizard’s conspiracy.
53. “His record more than enables him to take on McCain in that area.”
Clark was effectively fired from his post at SACEUR for gross incompetence including, but not limited to, attempting in a fit of petulance to start a war with a nuclear power that was only avoided because a subordinate (Mike Jackson) with far more sense than him refused to obey his orders.
“Wesley Clark: The Guy Who Almost Started World War III
“At the beginning of the Kosovo conflict, CounterPunch delved into the military career of General Wesley Clark and discovered that his meteoric rise through the ranks derived from the successful manipulation of appearances: faking the results of combat exercises, greasing to superiors and other practices common to the general officer corps. We correctly predicted that the unspinnable realities of a real war would cause him to become unhinged. Given that Clark attempted to bomb the CNN bureau in Belgrade and ordered the British General Michael Jackson to engage Russian troops in combat at the end of the war, we feel events amply vindicated our forecast.
“With the end of hostilities it has become clear even to Clark that most people, apart from some fanatical members of the war party in the White House and State Department, consider the general, as one Pentagon official puts it, ‘a horse’s ass.’ Defense Secretary William Cohen is known to loathe him, and has seen to it that the Hammer of the Serbs will be relieved of the Nato command two months early.””
http://tizona.wordpress.com/2008/06/29/wesley-clark-dowplays-mccain-war-record%E2%80%99s-value/
The Republicans would just love to run against this guy - the attack ads write themselves. In a dangerous world do you really want the hero of Pristina airport only a heartbeat away from the presidency?
Clark may be the best the Democrats have got by way of military experience (which in itself says something rather shocking about the Dems) but that doesn’t mean he’s any good. Obama would be making a wholly avoidable, and huge, mistake in picking him.
50, what a bloody stupid post.
I’m a Northerner, and I consider myself English, not ‘Northern’.
The UK has been weakened precisely because of leftwing anti-unionist sentiment and action enacted by people such as yourself. Lopsided and unnecessary devolution created solely for electoral advantage in 1997 is now a potential threat to the country.
The country is not at the end of the line, a majority of all peoples within it want the UK to continue.
68 Graeme. Virginia has been trending blue for several years as the sprawling suburbs of DC cross the state line. The polls are tight and have been under sampling AA. Further Obama’s ground game in the state is immense whilst McCain appears to have gone AWOL. Excellent betting opportunites …. but not as good as North Carolina !!
On th North South Debate.
It’s always misleding to state that the North and South are somehow homogenous entities.
As a Southerner I get annoyed that people treat the South as if it was just London/Home Counties. Having lived most of my life where Guildford is in the North
I can say that there are huge differences in the South between towns and counties. The South is my no means all rich or all Tory.
Yorkshire and Lancashire have their differences. There is no single North. There is also no single South.
Wahey! It’s A Level day.
The one day of the year when everyone gets to print photos of pretty young totty under the pretence of its being news, rather than just the Daily Star.
BBC off to a flying start:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cornwall/3578848.stm
My prediction: Britain will see its best A-level results evar!!! AGAIN!!!
*Sigh*.
69 Martin. Coherence is your middle name …. along with Dorothy !!
74. Your spelling is atrocious - it’s e-v-a-h!
Working on Mike’s assumption that the VP candidate will be close to the Clintons, I would have thought Bayh is the much stronger choice.
I agree with John L that choosing a military man does not so much neutralise McCain as play into his hands (it is Obama admitting it is a security election). Clark also probably fails to deliver any state (he might make Arkansas competitive but Bayh very probably delivers Indiana). His political campaigning record is also poor. He also fails to deliver the Democrat base, flirted with the Republicans and in the past has been flattering about Cheney, Rumsfeld etc.
Bayh is not without his flaws too. But Clark would be an odd choice.
The Beeb pixies I noted earlier ….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/olympics/rowing/7560316.stm
74. Indeed. Because as everyone knows, no boy has ever passed an A-Level exam since the invention of colour photography…
Jack W @ 72
NC has gone Dem since 1976, and even managed to withstand the Clinton surge in ‘92 and ‘96. Are you suggesting similar demographic change as you mention in VA has put NC in play aswell? (notwithstanding that NC is around 200 miles from the DC suburbs!)
This made mme smile from the Beeb Olympic blog :
0940: “My wife asked why the BBC keeps referring to the Yngling girls? She thought that was their name and they must be twins, triplets etc. Bless. I’m waiting for her to ask about the Coxless Four brothers.”
Jertz, Claygate, via text on 81111
79. The problem is, we simply don’t know, do we? The powers that be have done their very best to muddy the waters and make comparisons of ’standards’ over the years as difficult as possible.
The fact they have done this does, perhaps, hint at the underlying reality though.
@82:
This notion that A Levels have been be debased by Labour beyond their usefulness is slightly unfair. A Levels had been debased beyond their usefulness long before Labour came to power. They juts continued the trend rather than doing anything about it.
The primary purpose of A Levels is supposed to be to allow Universities to discriminate between the best and the brightest. In that regard, they are an embarassing, shocking failure.
70. Please give us a link to the article you have quoted. Is it by any chance connected to “Bosnian Serb war crimes denier” Stella L. Jatras and others sympathetic to the Serb nationalism? See:
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/jatras12.html
and
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/jatras3.html
83. I agree the deterioration began before 1997 - but I also think the rate of debasement has increased rapidly since. Whereas in the 1980s and early 1990s we had creeping grade inflation, since 1997 we have had something more akin to hyperinflation.
Obama would be bonkers to pick Clark for all the reasons given above.
While he may want to lock the Clintons in, his overridding concern is finding someone who doesn’t harm his appeal and Clark doesn’t fit that bill (as it were) - surely?
I’d have thought a mid-West state governor would be the safest option.
77 On the other hand it is much easier for Clark to go on the attack against McCain than it is for Obama.
80 Graeme. It’s a big suburb !!
The polls in NC have been remarkably stable, around +3/4% for McCain. Howvever they have without exception underpolled AA. NC is a state where by law ethnic background is monitored in elections. In 2004 26% AA voted yet pollsters have continued to undersample AA at around 18/20%. Also few expect AA not to turnout to the polls in larger numbers than in 04.
Obama has also been helped by the late Primary in the state and the focus therein. He has essentially maintained and increased his ground game in the state since the end of the Primary especially with new voter registrations.
85 - The evidence is a bit mixed. Between 1987 and 1997, the % achieving 5 or more GCSEs at grade C or above rose from 26.4% to 45.1%. Between 1997 and 2007 it rose to 58.0% - so the “inflation” was somewhat lower under Labour.
I don’t know the A-level position - perhaps somebody will have it. A key factor for A-levels though appears to be people taking more “easier” subjects (i.e. subjects which have always awarded more A grades) which is different from grade inflation (although it may also be a problem as “harder” subjects include some quite possibly valuable science subjects).
Jack W @ 87
Thanks for that insight. Do you think NC is therefore likely to trend Dem longterm, or is it just an ‘Obama thing’ for this election only? (and 2012 if he wins in November)
84. I rather thought that pale blue thing in the middle of my post was a link. Still, if you think that source is too anti-Clark perhaps you’d rather have this rather more sympathetic portrayal from the New York Times (when Clark was running in 2004) that still manages to report most of the basic facts.
I bet the Republicans have already got some ads ready to run featuring those photos (http://www.literarky.cz/fotky/0604/ltn_max_1897.jpg) of Clark and Mladic being very chummy.
83. Labour’s biggest education failure has been to focus on trying to separate the pupils with multiple ‘A’s, when the real problem with education is at the other end of the age range, where the primary school system is turning out too many pupils for whom secondary education is a waste of time.
83, A-levels can’t be compared with each other either. Even one Maths A-level is unlike another.
Maths, when I took it (maybe 5-6 years ago) was six modules, and you could do up to all 6 in Stats, Decision, Mechanics or Pure.
Stats was reasonably easy and you got the formula in the exam. Pure was theoretical, tougher with no formula. Mechanics was quite like Physics, and difficult. Decision (which I never got to do but know people who did) was easy.
Plus lots of people go for the subject they need for university then 3 others they either enjoy or know they will find easy.
Blast, forgot NYT link -
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E07E2D6113AF932A1575AC0A9659C8B63
With all this A-level talk the only thing that is scaring me is that it is a decade since I got my results. Aargh
re 59. The concept of a poll of polls is a nonsense as is the idea that any poll has a margin of error. The latter suggests a level of accuracy that is only applicable where there are truly random samples. This we do not get with any opinion poll currently operating.
Polls are not generic - each pollster is totally different and you simply have to accept that.
31. we already have a major political party that closely resembles the “southern league”
89 Graeme. It appears to be a more long term trend. NC has seen an influx of high tech jobs into the state and also general migration from the north that overall leans the state more blue.
One other matter that marks NC as a state to watch is that it allows for early voting and with the legal racial voting profiling I noted earlier, we should be able to assess differential AA turnout and thus Obama’s ability to flip the state.
@94:
THIRTEEN YEARS.
Kill me now.
In this extract of an interview between Wesley Clark and Margaret Garner we can read his version of what happened when Mike Jackson refused the order to block the runway:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/conversation/jan-june01/clark_06-15.html#
James @ 94
You’re lucky it’s only a decade! For me it’s 21yrs yet it seems not nearly that long. My A-levels fell during the 1987 GE and my Deputy Headmaster caught me acting as a teller at the polling station when he came to vote and asked me why I wasn’t at home revising!
He was then handing out the A-level Maths paper the following week and as he handed me mine whispered “Let’s hope your result from this is as good as your Party’s was last week!”
88. if i was in charge my first reform of A-levels would be forcing people to take mostly “academic” subjects. the inflation is from far too many new “-ology” and ” studies” subjects.
maybe everyone should have to do at least two from a list like the following:
maths, english lang+lit, physics, chemistry, biology, geog, hist, art, music, major euro languages, classics
95 Mike S. Heretic !!!!!
[101] - The more important reform would be to, somehow, remove the snobbery that surrounds more vocational qualifications. There’s no point forcing people to do more rigorous academic A-levels if they are going to fail them, better to have them do something they could be good at, and that has practical value for society.
101. That would have been a pretty exhaustive list of possibilities when some of us did A-levels.
100 - My A-levels were horrifying except for Theology where I always knew I’d do well and didn’t even bother revising. My history was complicated when one of my teachers died 6 months before the exam with over half the course untaught. It’s a miracle I passed let alone got a decent grade.
98/100 Martin/Graeme. No comment !!
Jack W is 105.
104. exactly, and i don’t think the old system was broken.
103. i don’t think the vocational ones should be shoehorned into the concept of A-levels. they should probably be a different qualification that is more hands-on and includes apprenticeship/internship
101 - I would be keener on educating the sixth formers about the likely value of their chosen subjects. I’ve seen candidates with A levels in PE and “critical thinking”. No doubt such A levels have their place, just as degrees in media studies do, but they occupy pretty niche markets.
[107] - I wasn’t suggesting they be shoehorned into A-levels, but they obviously run along in parallel, and it is my impression that too many people are doing A-levels which are a waste of time for them. I believe they would be better off doing something else with their time.
70 The Republicans would just love to run against this guy - the attack ads write themselves. In a dangerous world do you really want the hero of Pristina airport only a heartbeat away from the presidency? - You have a point except given McCain’s recent pronouncements on Russia Clarke now looks a Liberal wuss by comparison.
100 Why North Carolina? SC has the larger AA population I thought.
A-Levels were/are a nightmare. The sooner they’re gone the better. A total misnomer as well. There is no “level” in A-Levels.
107. Ah yes but then we are back to separating people into sheep and goats, masters and servants, scholars and hewers of wood and drawers of water…just the hated 11-plus in another form….
theorangeoparty (hopefully not liberal), that’s lies and you know it. You really aren’t worth the time but this is the Larry Johnson line, the one who said that tapes were going to be released tomorrow showing his wife blaming whites for America’s problems - months ago…..
In other words, stop lying.
11 - Of course the book has been shown to be a tissue of lies by dfactcheckers. On the other hand we await analysis of McCain’s ties to lobbyists for Georgia. Fomenting war for commercial gain, surely not?
110 Punter. Indeed and Mississippi even more. Essentially white voters are more conservative in SC and AA less well organized.
107 My UCCA offers back 36 years ago were two B passes for LSE, Bristol, Exeter, Bath B & two C and two E passes from UCL (Grades were then A to E pass, O for O Level pass & F for fail), unimaginable now that you could get into good colleges with only two A’s and at less than A grade. The UCL offer was basically acceptance based on interview and expectation of good A levels.
But then exams were in solid subjects, no course work and hard marking (less than 10% A passes IIRC)
Whether A-levels are getting easier or not is largely irrelevant. Now nearly 25% of entries are A-grades. So a university or employer cannot tell whether a candidate is in the top 25% or top 5%, and thus it no longer fulfils its purpose.
I don’t see any decent policies from any party to sort it out to be honest. It has also had the knock-on effect that many more people need degrees to make themselves stand out, and so more people need higher degrees etc. etc. All a bit of a shambles really.
We give ourselves the illusion of being better educated, but I don’t think we are. I see interview candidates with great CVs on paper but with the people skills of Mr Bean or Jade Goody and who are (I’m sorry) much thicker than their qualifications would suggest. Worrying for the future.
112 - Ultimately life will find a means of separating people into different areas. The problem is that if we only define success as a degree then we are condemning a lot of kids to failure, we are also forcing the reasonably self aware who know they haven’t got a degree in them to basically scrap themselves at 16.
117. Exactly, it’s all about illusion, at every level. Government pedddling the illusion that its education policies are wonderful, teachers that their teaching is wonderful, pupils that their academic abilities are wonderful. Why upset such a happy situation?
Mista Canadian - this election is all about McCain now right, read the memo….
Does anyone care about who McCain’s veep pick is? He is the one that needs a boost in the polls after all. His choice is make or break for the campaign.
117 - I agree with your first paragraph completely.
However, I disagree with your last paragraph completely. Students coming through the system tend to be less articulate than older people only because they are younger and more inexperienced in life. I can vividly remember how easy it was for me to waltz into my first job despite filling out the application form ineptly, not having a clue what the job entailed, having done zero research on my prospective employer and having no commercial awareness.
The more recent generations of students may stumble and mumble, but they have done their research, know what’s expected and have worked hard to get their cv into shape over many years. Quality at the top end is steadily rising (though I’m very doubtful whether it is rising as fast as the grades would suggest).
117. more and more people doing degrees isn’t necessarily the bad thing it is often made out to be - more and more people are choosing to stay in education until 21 which surely gives them more chances to blossom academically and find their calling in life (whether they take those chances is another matter)
117 I think you a touch OTT !!
People seem to have a more professional approach to exams than in my day. It’s little wonder that people’s results are better.
Sadly being trained to be good at exams isn’t exactly the same as an education. In my exerience, if you have the right attitude, you learn 10x the amount for every answer you get wrong than the ones you get right.
84 - Well spotted Goupillon, one look at the blog about Clark and I smelled a rat. Nobody links to a blog, they link to news articles if they want to be taken seriously.
Having said that, I’d be surprised if it was Clark, McCain has enough problems over foreign policy as it is. He’d becoming more and more tied to Bush, has been seen to be even more gung-ho and claims to know the subject whilst making a string of gaffes about who is who and where they are. A disaster area doesn’t need someone to point out how big the disaster area is.
112: Why is the 11+ hated? A bit strong don’t you think? 0/164 grammar schools’ catchment areas have voted to close them, so evidence for your claim is, well, thin.
I don’t think they are the best answer, too simplistic, we need a greater variety of schools though. It is rubbish that at the moment you are allowed to select on “aptitude but not ability”. So you can be good at sport, music, art, anything that isn’t academic in fact
Pretending that some kids are not brighter than other kids is poor preparation for life. The tories got in a mess over grammar schools, but they do have a policy of introducing more setting, which is a nod to the real world at least.
110. But whites in the rest of the South (outside VA, FL and some of NC) tend to be extremely culturally conservative, and there’s a lot of racial tension about. Virginia has in many ways lost its Southern cultural attitude to demographic trends, while North Carolina has a more divided white electorate (although the larger AA population may make up for this). Florida of course hasn’t been “Southern” for a long time, except for the panhandle.
122.Higher education for all: waste of time and money! Just an excuse to get people off the dole and doing something else. It is hidden unemployment! Employers do not want people who get mind numbling bored doing jobs they are unsuited too. Nor do people want to spend years missing paid work for no long-term return. The days of graduates earn Hundreds of Grand more over a lifetime are long gone. When people do earn Hundreds of grand more it is not usually because they have a degree unless it is vocational but because they have the skills employers require. Higher education for 50% of the population is not viable at this time; their are not the jobs that require it either.
124 - And so random then links to the NYT which paints a fairer picture about possible issues of micromanaging and unnecessary risk taking. A bit of a change from the foaming at the mouth ranting painting Clark as some sort of evil thug in the previous blog article.
100
Stripling youngsters. I got mine in 1983.
I want so much to add ‘back when they were actually worth something’
124 I think you project your own views and prejudices into believing people will see it as you see. Clarke kicked up a huge row with McCain but his military record mean’t he got away with it. A ‘Civilian’ would have been toast.
121: We have never given a job to anyone as poorly prepared as you
We do still get good candidates, especially for good jobs, but lower down the scale the numeracy, spelling and attitude leave a lot to be desired in many (not all) cases. We also get a lot of non-UK EU applicants who are on average much more impressive.
122: impossible to say how many is too many, but 50% going to University seems crazy.
123: I think you missed my point, I was deliberately not commenting on whether people are better at exams, or whether the exams are easier, since I am not in a position to say. Whatever the reason, there is now little or no differentiation between good and excellent.
The problem with Clark is that his credentials are entirely based on one area. That means a successful swift boating, whether the allegations are true or false, could succeed in undermining that one area and frame him as purely a trigger happy general. With no other visible career in politics, he has nothing else to fall back on, and it becomes a his word versus others scenario. It would attach even more risk to Obama, which is the very weak point of Obama’s campaign.
I do think that Mike’s thoughts on this threat are very astute though. Other speakers can be rejigged, but its unlikely they’d mess Bill about considering past tensions, and they wouldn’t have given him an important spot to move to a less important one later. The VP will be acceptable to the Clintons. Perhaps Bayh it is.
130 - My point is that McCain doesn’t need someone to counter his supposed usp, he’s increasingly doing that himself and he needs no help.
117 - I agree with your point that it is bad news if you cannot easily differentiate between the top 5% and the top 25%. However, it has always been the case that some people who are decent at passing exams have little emotional intelligence, interpersonal skills or common sense, while some people with poor exam results have all those qualities in spades.
112. I was being ironic.
Academic selection was and is hated by the educational establishment because it gave working class people the opportunity to rise out of their class background and thus reduced the chances of a social revolution ( I know that sounds incredibly archaic but within the NUT etc. you really do still find people who think like that, and in the 1960s and 1970s there were hordes of such people).
The grammar school system was scrapped because it was too successful - grammar school kids were outperforming those from public schools, getting an increasing share of places at the top universities. Real social mobility seemed to be arriving - a disaster for socialists, and to a lesser extent the privileged as well.
135. oops sorry reply to 125.
134. You can tell the latter skills in interview anyway though.
130 - But isn’t the trouble with picking Clark that it sends the clear message that this is a security election? That plays into McCain’s hands. It is great to have people like Clark and perhaps Powell on-hand to speak for you on the TV news on the promise of a juicy White House job come January. But not as VP pick.
137 - Well, to the extent you are ever likely to be able to in a job application process. A lot of crap employees were interviewed for the job and appeared to be good picks at the time.
133 I think you’re sorely mistaken on that. Obama has to be super careful, because of McCain’s record he can’t go full throttle. Clarke who has two purple hearts from Vietnam amongst a cluster of other medals need have no such fear of being accused of disrespecting McCain’s service if he criticises him on National Security.
As of next year there is an A star grade for A levels as well as GCSEs. There is no fixed percentage but it will do some of the separating of good A from A.
131 - I did pay for it in the interview, which played an even bigger part of the process then than now. One of my interviewers said to me: “Quite frankly, Mr antifrank, you’ve got all the paper qualifications but you’ve never done anything interesting, have you?” I said something about being interesting in my spare time, but even as a fairly dozy 19 year old, I got the point.
137. 139. I find interviews to be far more accurate measurements of ability than CVs, which are frequently works of fantasy.
138 Possibly but not hugely I’d say.
140 - I think Kristol is bluffing when he says that Powell is going to endorse Obama (so he can claim he had second thoughts later) but if it is true then who needs Clark?
134 - Emotional intelligence, common sense and interpersonal skills can usually be instilled in an otherwise bright person. Intellectual horsepower is pretty much innate - you’ve either got it or you haven’t.
Does the experience of previous elections suggest that different political views of P and VP candidates harm the prospects of the P candidate? My guess is that voters don’t care about the views of the VP, as long as he’s not obviously idiotic.
&nbs