Will Barack’s V-P be chosen to lock the Clintons in?
August 14th, 2008
Why is Bill due to speak just before just before the V-P nominee?
An intriguing piece of news overnight is the report that Bill Clinton, whose relationship with Obama has never been easy, has been given the slot at the Denver convention just before the V-P nominee.
This can only mean, surely, that the chosen person is totally acceptable to the Clintons and, indeed, might be a major part of the healing between the two factions that has become so necessary. For even in the run-up to Denver there’s been talk of pro-Hillary demonstrations and demands for roll call votes by many of her supporters who have yet to reconcile themselves fully with the outcome of the primary process.
So given that it’s a near certainty that the running mate will not be Hillary then, surely, the choice is someone who enables Bill to be brought on board?
What better person than Wes Clark - the former Supreme Allied Commander, Europe - who like Clinton was a fellow Rhodes scholar at Oxford and who also grew up in Arkansas? He has also known Bill for forty years.
As Jonathan Allen on VP Watch notes: “Clark endorsed Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary, and he has been so closely identified with the Clintons that it would be hard for them to be anything less than fully supportive of the ticket if he were on it.”
As was noted here on Monday the V-P conference speech is on a day devoted to “security” and no doubt the former President would like to contrast the success of his foreign policy in Kosovo with the Bush record on Iraq. Wes Clark, of course, was in charge in Kosovo.
Mike Smithson
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First comment, perhaps…..
Is it a “near certainty” that the VP won’t be Hilary? Just imagine Bill firing up the crowds for her?
But, yes, I agree that this means that it must be someone entirely acceptable to the Clintons.
Does Wes Clark really help Obama win the election or does he merely ensure it will be fought on ground that favours McCain?
As we get closer to the convention, the number of possible VP candidates is quickly dwindling; I’d say Clark is in the top 3 likely possibilities, alongside probably Bayh and Kaine. At least, those are the names that have been mentioned the most this past week, and each is pretty plausible.
To me, Clark is actually the most likely choice. His positives are clear: he strengthens Obama on foreign policy and national security issues, and he helps bring the Clintons (and their supporters) onside. His negatives are less obvious, though it is true he’s been somewhat outspoken lately (see the link above). And then there’s the fact that the VP speech is titled ‘Securing America’s Future’… it doesn’t seem like a coincidence that that was Clark’s old slogan.
This speculation could still turn out to be wrong, and Obama may yet surprise us with his VP pick; but he could certainly do a lot worse than Wesley Clark.
Great choice - read Gen Jackson’s comments on him and his trigger happy fingers.
Presumably if Obama has made his choice, the Clintons are probably be in on the decision, but neither is an absolute certainty. The simple fact is that Bill really can’t turn down the offer to speak at such a key moment if he values his reputation - something which he didn’t do many favours while campaigning for his wife and could do with a bit of restoring.
If there are pro-Hillary demonstrations or if Clinton was perceived to have snubbed Obama or his running-mate, then if McCain goes on to win in the Autumn, those divisions or lack of support will be one of the key factors that would be blamed for the loss. Bill is still loved by large sections of the Democrats though his star isn’t quite as high as it once was as a lot feel they’ve found a new one. Obama really has to ask him to speak, because of his seniority, his connection to the principal defeated Democrat candidate and his remaining popularity. For much the same reasons, I don’t think he could risk refusing.
All that said, it would seem perverse were he to be given that particular slot were he or Hillary to have severe reservations about the nominee for VP (something which could itself risk upsetting the projection of unity) - Obama can only push party loyalty so far.
As for Clark, I’d agree that he’s a possible and 25/1 seems pretty good value, but it’s too much of a lottery for my liking and I’ll leave it to braver souls to try and make a profit out of this one.
Wes Clark suffered in 2003 from his ex-boss Gen Shelton’s remarks “”I’ve known Wes for a long time. I will tell you the reason he came out of Europe early [i.e., was forced to step down as commander of U.S. forces in Europe] had to do with integrity and character issues, things that are very near and dear to my heart. I’m not going to say whether I’m a Republican or a Democrat. I’ll just say Wes won’t get my vote.”
As the Slate article says Shelton didn’t expand on why but if there is substance to Shelton’s slur on Clark’s integrity and character then that could prove damaging in the campaign.
http://www.slate.com/id/2089014/
2. Bingo. Plus, Clark is the exact opposite of “do no harm”. Obama might choose him (though I very much doubt it), but he substantially reduces Obama’s ability to win the election.
V-P Market
Mika Smithsona wrote : “The smartest ones are those who have kept well out”
No way! — for the smart ones are those who laid the favorites when they were — shortly — favorites @ 2 to 1, or 2.5 to 1:
– Hillary
– Webb
– Kaine
And now Bayh…
Even mista Smithson himself wrote that “the bookies will make a packet”.
So: the smart ones played like more or less a bookie…
What Hill and Bill say publicly and what they are up to behind the scenes are two very different things.
I’m taking what the US MSM is reporting at the moment with a pinch of salt.
What is clear is that Clinton supporters will try to rain on Barry’s parade at the DNC.
It’s not over ’til the fat lady sings.
At the moment, after the Edward’s scandal, I’m more interested in Obama superstar and his eligibility to run at all. As I’ve noted here:
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/08/obamas-fake-birth-certificate.html
From RCP
McCain Was Right About Putin - Jack Kelly, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/mccain_is_our_churchill.html
We Are All Georgians - John McCain, Wall Street Journal
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121867081398238807.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Politico: Swift Boat author plagues Obama campaign
“Four years ago this month, the release of a critical book by Jerome R. Corsi undercut the cornerstone of Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry’s campaign narrative, his military service in Vietnam.
Now, Corsi has reappeared with another popular book, “The Obama Nation: Leftist Politics and the Cult of Personality,”"…
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12528.html
OBAMA/McCAIN — WIN PERCENTAGE
-> Intrade (last trade): 60.4 / 36.3 %
-> Betfair (last trade): 65.36 / 30.77 %
-> 538.com (projection): 65.8 / 34.2 %
I find it very strange that on betfair, Obama seems to have the momentum now, while the geopolitical events clearly favor McCain…
What’s going on?
When do we get the first of the presidential debates?
I would be surprised if Obama did not come out on top in these things, although the wild card maybe McCain and his age & experience : A Reaganest “My opponents youth and inexperience…..”
8 (& 186 previous thread) re laying the favourite.
In markets like this one, where you have an open field, a distant settlement date, and emotion-led speculation, there is usually a succession of different favourites and it can be profitable to lay each of them in turn. Even if you lay the eventual winner, which is quite likely, you should still make a profit on the others. To be safe, you can back each one to save your stake or lock in a profit once they drift (and fortunately I did just that with McCain).
Other lay-the-leader markets include reality television shows, next football manager, and even next party leader, to bring it back on topic.
Betfair realises there will only be one winner, so you only need tie up your stake to cover your biggest loser. So if, for Republican candidate, you had laid Giuliani at even money for a thousand pounds, that would tie up £1,000 (obviously) but you could then have laid McCain to lose a thousand without increasing the amount tied up, and so on.
The Kinnock Test!:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/daniel_finkelstein/article4525842.ece
I would tend to agree with this comment by Fink. in the times, Kinnock was unfit for office and alas the UK got another 5 years of Tory Government!
Actually i rather miss the Labour spokesman on the Telly going on about “the Tory Government”!
From wikipedia on Wes Clark -
Clark has said that he began to truly define his politics only after his military retirement in 2000 around the 2000 presidential election that would give George W. Bush the presidency. Clark had a conversation with Condoleezza Rice. She told him that the war in Kosovo would have never taken place under a Bush administration…
Clark…. believed more in the interventionist policies of the Clinton administration. He said he would see it as a sign that things were “starting to go wrong” with American foreign policy if Bush was elected.[90]
Clark supported the administration’s War in Afghanistan in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks but did not support the Iraq War. Clark continued to warn people as a commentator on CNN that he believed the United States was undermanned in Iraq, and has said the war was “never [about]… WMD or regime change,” and believes “the connection to the War on Terrorism was not shown.”
Clark wrote that he believed other generals were jealous of his natural high intelligence, and were quick to attack him…
He seems a good choice for Obama as an effective military man, who would avoid wrong wars, and fight the right ones.
Wouldn’t this be rubbing salt into an open wound!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/aug/14/generalmotors.automotive
17. Perhaps, but it’s the natural consequence of running consistent trade deficits - they can only be sustained by attracting foreign investment into a country i.e. selling off capital. That said, this is surely a bad time to buy Hummer?
EVIL DICK!
“I have information that Vice-President Dick Cheney was the brain behind the Georgian attack,” said Kremlin-connected Deputy Sergei Markov, who also heads the Institute of Political Analysis in Moscow. “The true goal of the operation was not to seize South Ossetia, but to trigger a full-scale conflict between Russia and the West.”
… Mr. Saakashvili has become a pawn in the U.S. presidential election game. A senior Russian parliamentarian said the neo-conservatives in the Bush administration prodded the emotionally unstable and arrogant Georgian leader into the armed misadventure to help Republican John McCain win points in the race against his Democratic rival, Barack Obama.
http://www.hindu.com/2008/08/14/stories/2008081455901000.htm
Of course, this conspiracy-paranoid theory is penned by a left-wing, neo-internationalist Russian journalist…
Wesley “World War 3″ Clark?
Bring it on!
14 - “Other lay-the-leader markets include reality television shows, next football manager, and even next party leader, to bring it back on topic.”
Interesting… thanks!
OMG : the Obama Campaign seems to buy into the left-wing, neo-internationalist conspiracy theory…
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/08/13/team-obama-blames-georgia-on-mccain/
16 War in Iraq never about “regime change”? that’s worrying because that was what it was about. Most generals were against Rumsfeld’s ideas on using overwhelming air & missile power backed by smaller ground forces and the experience in Iraq bears out their concerns.
What has struck me in case of Georgia is the similarity in Brown and Bush’s responses to crises. Thatcher, Clinton, Blair even Major would have responded with a press conference within hours. 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina showed up Bush as it was days before he seemed to comprehend a course of action - depending on subordinates to do the immediate stuff. Gordon also seems to need time to decide a response, in his fire, floods and plague first month his personal inaction came across as comforting as people believed he was competent and the subordinates were dealing. Later crises exposed this and the ditherer label seemed applicable.
In the UK economy, Darling proves he has learned nothing from Volcker and Howe..
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/property_and_mortgages/article4518306.ece?Submitted=true
23 - Quite, if it wasn’t about WMD OR “Regime Change” then that doesn’t leave much…
It’s the reasons for Regime Change which are up for dispute.
New SUSA poll for Washington State :
McCain 44% .. Obama 51%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=90e886e0-135a-4500-9712-e7be3427399c
25. I doubt Wes Clark would have encouraged Georgia to stir up Russia, or have pressed ahead with Kosovan independence, or have gone into Iraq. Imagine a world without all these George Bush-created problems.
And what if instead a proper job had been done in Afghanistan. It’s never too late, maybe, to get things right.
If Obama picks Clark, it might be a good choice, and a sign that Obama knows how to pick the right people - the most important quality in any leader. Could this be the return of IQ to American government? It’s about time.
I think Clark would be a dreadful pick. He brings nothing to the table for Obama. I can’t believe Pbama would choose him.
I’m with test; Clark was an abysmal campaigner last time around. He highlights Obama’s foreign policy weaknesses. There are potential skeletons in the cupboard. And he brings no real executive experience or record.
Assuming (and it’s an awful big assumption) an Obama presidency, it’s hard to what he brings as VP.
My personal top two most likely are:
1. Warner
2. Bloomberg
(Bloomberg has, of course, been courted by both candidates. Thus, a small bet on him to be next VP covers both sides of the fence.)
As far as betting on this goes, watch the aviation blogs and forums. Last time around it was one of those that spotted the decals on the Kerry plane said Kerry-Edwards.
re 29 Hey son - you are supposed to support your old Dad!
Well! its good to see that those, ‘Friends of Dave’ who want to dump the North, have gotten some support from dear ‘ol Kelvin.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/columnists/kelvin_mackenzie/article1555358.ece
Do you think Kelvin will start a ‘Southern League’ although his last attempt to enter politics wasn’t too successful.
29/30 Me thinks Smithson junior is correct here. Our Wes is a piss poor campaigner and liable to explosive gaffes.
Highlight of the day so far this morning was the sight, on the Beeb Olympic coverage, of Sir Steve Redgrave and John Inverdale looking like a pair of pixies in matching white and baby blue rain suits !!
30; quiet morning, Dad. And, when you are right (reasonably often, for an old guy) I support you.
29. With Putin in power in Russia you need a military man as VP. Yes Clark’s not much of a politician’s politician with a tendency to imagine that reality has a bearing on events. But after Bush and Blair, a dose of reality might actually be required.
His lack of political shenanigans is only to be expected in someone with a more practical approach to problems.
Obama will do the politics anyway. What Obama needs at his side is someone who gives the right advice. Who would you prefer? Rumsfeld?
27-But #16 says the opposite.
He is against intervention in Iraq but for intervention in Kosovo. What is the difference? How can he have it both ways? And now it turns out he was never for Kosovo independence? Is this why he set about undoing the Serbian state apparatus there?
The only way out is to do a Robin Cook and die and be lauded for your “statesmanship”.
I think Wes Clark would be a loose cannon and the worst VP choice since McGovern’s in 1972.
Tapestry; of course, Obama is going for a whole new style of government where the only person he listens to is his VP.
Silly me.
34 - I think presidential nominees should justify their veep pick the Jed Bartlett way, “I might die”. To me Wes Clark doesn’t satisfy that. He might be a good choice at the State department but I wouldn’t want him one shot removed from the Presidency.
I’d be careful about declaring Kosovo a great success, but your point is well made. If Hillary can’t be given a top job in a Democrat government, then using her connections and opinion on the V-P slot might keep her onside.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
O/T - They really should have used a dictionary, or a spell-checker or maybe a proof reader!
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2008/08/14/the-latest-hip-words-make-it-to-chanbers-dictionary-91466-21529907/
All Wes Clark. is really for: Ballist - A man to supply experience and hard headed decision making to Obama’s youth and inexperience. Funnily enough the more i see of Obama, the more i think he is the right man for the job providing he can meet all the military criteria. The US. Presidency needs a man not afraid to send the troops in and execute war. Unfortunatly for the US. they will always be called upon to intervene as the Worlds sole super-power. Russia is not a super-power in miltary terms. It has Nuclear weapons but most of its conventional forces are shit and the replacement equipment is on a far smaller scale than previously seen in the times of the USSR. China again is not a super-power: Both China and Russia are regional powers there ability to assend the globe has either evapourated or never existed.
I do hope you manage to make a bit of money on it Mike - after all these months of telling us that betting on the V-P nomination was a mug’s game it would be a nicely ironical outcome.
‘Bookies tipping Andy Kerr as Iain Gray wins Labour nominations battle’
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/08/14/bookies-tipping-andy-kerr-as-iain-gray-wins-labour-nominations-battle-86908-20696371/
‘Gray tops MSP nominations in bid to lead Labour at Holyrood’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2424737.0.Gray_tops_MSP_nominations_in_bid_to_lead_Labour_at_Holyrood.php
‘Widespread support boosts Gray’s ranking as favourite to lead Labour’
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Widespread–support–.4388568.jp
31 - *sigh* - we’ve been through this Coldstone - the report was authored by a Lib Dem and friend of Nick Clegg.
I suppose the Russian invasion of Georgia was the Tories’ fault too?
It’s either Bayh or Biden. Mark it.
Ladbrokes - Next Scottish Labour Party Leader - current prices
Andy Kerr 2.25
Iain Gray 2.50
Cathy Jamieson 3.75
I mentioned Wag The Dog when the trouble in Georgia first broke out. I can’t help thinking that one of the biggest effects of a war somewhere that most people had never heard of was to change the dynamics of the Presidential race. The question that I can’t answer is whether this was intended and if so by who.
O/T - Germany, France and Italy have negative growth…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7560200.stm
31. Kelvin is full of Shit! I disagreed with the report: It is not a Tory document anyway.
I still think the best way to deal with weak economies in the north is to develop super- enterprise areas. Indeed one could succesfully create skill acquisition hubs, that is centre’s that are in direct comunication with employers who suffer a shotage of particular skills. It never ceases to amaze me how employers moan about people not having the skills but do nothing about it! Even more strange is when they moan about not having people with the skills/qualifications and there are people like me who they turn a blind eye too.
47 - On the plus side, the British economy is now probably sufficiently aligned with those economied that it could join the Euro.
43
Sorry! I think that the report says lots of good things.
43 The present system has obviously failed, the South feels no kinship with the North and vice-versa. I certainly having been born in Surrey, spent my childhood in S.Wales, my adolescence in S.Devon, (The armed forces) and most of my working life in London, living in Surrey, don’t know the North and care about it even less.
The United Kingdom,(is it?) has obviously come to the end of the line, its time to think of moving on.
With that break up, will come new political parties that will hopefully reflect the realities of the 21st century.
Kelvin would probably get a lot of support for his, ‘Southern League’ certainly in London, where, W**s begin at Watford!
47 I’m sure the French are as comforted by their Finance Minister as we are by ours:
“”The fundamentals of the French economy are healthy,” she added.”
47. Which means we are going to follow!
29 Bloomberg? Doesn’t bring balance except amongst UK Lib Dems. Probably Treasury Secretary whoever wins. AS for Clark who cares if he’s not a great Campaigner Obama can do that. A VP is there to look serious and never overshadow the nominee. Besides if necessary Obama can just ignore the tactical consideration of Clark’s campaigning for the vastly more important objective as Mr Smithson suggests of locking the Clinton supporters into the campaign. Above all that spat with McCain highlighted that if necessary he can be an attack dog on NS issues. His record more than enables hhim to take on McCain in that area.
50. The cities were mainly in England that the report referred too.
Maybe you should move North as it would mean you could continue to live under socialism!
53. I quite agree Clark is a bit like Bush’s Dick!
46. I agree. It’s almost become dangerous to say it, such is the assmumption on this side of the pond that Obama is a certainty but IMO continuing trouble with the old enemy means good news for McCain.
54. Yes - don’t stop until you reach Sweden…
54
I didn’t say they weren’t in England, but the South of England, (I now live on the South Coast) is not the same as the North of England.
Many people in the South feel more at home in other parts of Europe than they do in the North.
Offered the choice of living in the North of England or France/Italy etc, guess where they’d choose?
As for living under socialism, I couldn’t care less, socialism, like conservatism is difficult to define in party political terms anyway, Cameron for instance is a Whig or paternalistic socialist.
http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/index.html
Can someone explain what CNN mean when they say that their poll of polls “does not have a sampling error”?
@59:
It doesn’t mean anything because it’s untrue.
59 Eddie. It’s a statistical average of the named polls and thus doesn’t have a sampling error.
@61:
A composite index’s sampling error is a weighted sum of squares of the sampling error of underlyings.
59: As Jack W says, it means they can’t quote a figure for sampling error because it’s an average, not a random poll, not that the figures don’t include any sampling error.
Well Coldstone you’re missing out. There are fewer finer places on earth than the north of England; endless acres of beautiful scenery and five of the most cheerful cities in Europe.
Of course, there are some grotty bits too, but you’re never far from somewhere good.
*leaves room to strains of brass band*
62: Stop it, they’ll hear you. Don’t for God’s sake encourage media outlets to publish spurious margins of error.
@63:
They can calculate the poll’s sampling error, but they’ve chose instead to falsely clainm it doesn’t have one.
Now, I’m not sure if they’re being disingenuous or incompetent, but it ain’t pretty.
In any case the CNN “poll” pales into insignificance compared to the majesty and magnificence of ARSE(BUTT) entwined with the delicious decadence of a dish of SOAMES BIG MAC weighting !!
I think Mike’s usual point that the VP market is so random - i.e. down to the personal choice of a single individual - that I have also kept out of the VP markets. However, the point about ‘locking in the Clintons’ is hugely important here, and Mike’s tips are usually very profitable, (for me!) so I have pitched my £15 on Clark with Betfair @ 5.8
However, one point that nobody has mentioned is whether Clark would ‘bring a state’ with him? Does Clark represent a state or have any ability to deliver an important one for the Dems?
O/T Betfair has options for ‘winner of each state’ and there is free money available for anyone with knowledge of which states tend to lean which way. I personally don’t buy the hype about Virginia and Indiana being competitive, as these have been strongly Republican states for the last 30-40 years. (Only a Dem VP choice from one of these might put it in play) Likewise Montana for the GOP and I can’t see Michigan and Wisconsin as anything other than Democrat.
@67:
Any margin of error in the BUTT is merely an operational detail, and any discrepancy between any election living or dead is further evidence of the lizard’s conspiracy.
53. “His record more than enables him to take on McCain in that area.”
Clark was effectively fired from his post at SACEUR for gross incompetence including, but not limited to, attempting in a fit of petulance to start a war with a nuclear power that was only avoided because a subordinate (Mike Jackson) with far more sense than him refused to obey his orders.
“Wesley Clark: The Guy Who Almost Started World War III
“At the beginning of the Kosovo conflict, CounterPunch delved into the military career of General Wesley Clark and discovered that his meteoric rise through the ranks derived from the successful manipulation of appearances: faking the results of combat exercises, greasing to superiors and other practices common to the general officer corps. We correctly predicted that the unspinnable realities of a real war would cause him to become unhinged. Given that Clark attempted to bomb the CNN bureau in Belgrade and ordered the British General Michael Jackson to engage Russian troops in combat at the end of the war, we feel events amply vindicated our forecast.
“With the end of hostilities it has become clear even to Clark that most people, apart from some fanatical members of the war party in the White House and State Department, consider the general, as one Pentagon official puts it, ‘a horse’s ass.’ Defense Secretary William Cohen is known to loathe him, and has seen to it that the Hammer of the Serbs will be relieved of the Nato command two months early.””
http://tizona.wordpress.com/2008/06/29/wesley-clark-dowplays-mccain-war-record%E2%80%99s-value/
The Republicans would just love to run against this guy - the attack ads write themselves. In a dangerous world do you really want the hero of Pristina airport only a heartbeat away from the presidency?
Clark may be the best the Democrats have got by way of military experience (which in itself says something rather shocking about the Dems) but that doesn’t mean he’s any good. Obama would be making a wholly avoidable, and huge, mistake in picking him.
50, what a bloody stupid post.
I’m a Northerner, and I consider myself English, not ‘Northern’.
The UK has been weakened precisely because of leftwing anti-unionist sentiment and action enacted by people such as yourself. Lopsided and unnecessary devolution created solely for electoral advantage in 1997 is now a potential threat to the country.
The country is not at the end of the line, a majority of all peoples within it want the UK to continue.
68 Graeme. Virginia has been trending blue for several years as the sprawling suburbs of DC cross the state line. The polls are tight and have been under sampling AA. Further Obama’s ground game in the state is immense whilst McCain appears to have gone AWOL. Excellent betting opportunites …. but not as good as North Carolina !!
On th North South Debate.
It’s always misleding to state that the North and South are somehow homogenous entities.
As a Southerner I get annoyed that people treat the South as if it was just London/Home Counties. Having lived most of my life where Guildford is in the North
I can say that there are huge differences in the South between towns and counties. The South is my no means all rich or all Tory.
Yorkshire and Lancashire have their differences. There is no single North. There is also no single South.
Wahey! It’s A Level day.
The one day of the year when everyone gets to print photos of pretty young totty under the pretence of its being news, rather than just the Daily Star.
BBC off to a flying start:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cornwall/3578848.stm
My prediction: Britain will see its best A-level results evar!!! AGAIN!!!
*Sigh*.
69 Martin. Coherence is your middle name …. along with Dorothy !!
74. Your spelling is atrocious - it’s e-v-a-h!
Working on Mike’s assumption that the VP candidate will be close to the Clintons, I would have thought Bayh is the much stronger choice.
I agree with John L that choosing a military man does not so much neutralise McCain as play into his hands (it is Obama admitting it is a security election). Clark also probably fails to deliver any state (he might make Arkansas competitive but Bayh very probably delivers Indiana). His political campaigning record is also poor. He also fails to deliver the Democrat base, flirted with the Republicans and in the past has been flattering about Cheney, Rumsfeld etc.
Bayh is not without his flaws too. But Clark would be an odd choice.
The Beeb pixies I noted earlier ….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/olympics/rowing/7560316.stm
74. Indeed. Because as everyone knows, no boy has ever passed an A-Level exam since the invention of colour photography…
Jack W @ 72
NC has gone Dem since 1976, and even managed to withstand the Clinton surge in ‘92 and ‘96. Are you suggesting similar demographic change as you mention in VA has put NC in play aswell? (notwithstanding that NC is around 200 miles from the DC suburbs!)
This made mme smile from the Beeb Olympic blog :
0940: “My wife asked why the BBC keeps referring to the Yngling girls? She thought that was their name and they must be twins, triplets etc. Bless. I’m waiting for her to ask about the Coxless Four brothers.”
Jertz, Claygate, via text on 81111
79. The problem is, we simply don’t know, do we? The powers that be have done their very best to muddy the waters and make comparisons of ’standards’ over the years as difficult as possible.
The fact they have done this does, perhaps, hint at the underlying reality though.
@82:
This notion that A Levels have been be debased by Labour beyond their usefulness is slightly unfair. A Levels had been debased beyond their usefulness long before Labour came to power. They juts continued the trend rather than doing anything about it.
The primary purpose of A Levels is supposed to be to allow Universities to discriminate between the best and the brightest. In that regard, they are an embarassing, shocking failure.
70. Please give us a link to the article you have quoted. Is it by any chance connected to “Bosnian Serb war crimes denier” Stella L. Jatras and others sympathetic to the Serb nationalism? See:
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/jatras12.html
and
http://www.antiwar.com/orig/jatras3.html
83. I agree the deterioration began before 1997 - but I also think the rate of debasement has increased rapidly since. Whereas in the 1980s and early 1990s we had creeping grade inflation, since 1997 we have had something more akin to hyperinflation.
Obama would be bonkers to pick Clark for all the reasons given above.
While he may want to lock the Clintons in, his overridding concern is finding someone who doesn’t harm his appeal and Clark doesn’t fit that bill (as it were) - surely?
I’d have thought a mid-West state governor would be the safest option.
77 On the other hand it is much easier for Clark to go on the attack against McCain than it is for Obama.
80 Graeme. It’s a big suburb !!
The polls in NC have been remarkably stable, around +3/4% for McCain. Howvever they have without exception underpolled AA. NC is a state where by law ethnic background is monitored in elections. In 2004 26% AA voted yet pollsters have continued to undersample AA at around 18/20%. Also few expect AA not to turnout to the polls in larger numbers than in 04.
Obama has also been helped by the late Primary in the state and the focus therein. He has essentially maintained and increased his ground game in the state since the end of the Primary especially with new voter registrations.
85 - The evidence is a bit mixed. Between 1987 and 1997, the % achieving 5 or more GCSEs at grade C or above rose from 26.4% to 45.1%. Between 1997 and 2007 it rose to 58.0% - so the “inflation” was somewhat lower under Labour.
I don’t know the A-level position - perhaps somebody will have it. A key factor for A-levels though appears to be people taking more “easier” subjects (i.e. subjects which have always awarded more A grades) which is different from grade inflation (although it may also be a problem as “harder” subjects include some quite possibly valuable science subjects).
Jack W @ 87
Thanks for that insight. Do you think NC is therefore likely to trend Dem longterm, or is it just an ‘Obama thing’ for this election only? (and 2012 if he wins in November)
84. I rather thought that pale blue thing in the middle of my post was a link. Still, if you think that source is too anti-Clark perhaps you’d rather have this rather more sympathetic portrayal from the New York Times (when Clark was running in 2004) that still manages to report most of the basic facts.
I bet the Republicans have already got some ads ready to run featuring those photos (http://www.literarky.cz/fotky/0604/ltn_max_1897.jpg) of Clark and Mladic being very chummy.
83. Labour’s biggest education failure has been to focus on trying to separate the pupils with multiple ‘A’s, when the real problem with education is at the other end of the age range, where the primary school system is turning out too many pupils for whom secondary education is a waste of time.
83, A-levels can’t be compared with each other either. Even one Maths A-level is unlike another.
Maths, when I took it (maybe 5-6 years ago) was six modules, and you could do up to all 6 in Stats, Decision, Mechanics or Pure.
Stats was reasonably easy and you got the formula in the exam. Pure was theoretical, tougher with no formula. Mechanics was quite like Physics, and difficult. Decision (which I never got to do but know people who did) was easy.
Plus lots of people go for the subject they need for university then 3 others they either enjoy or know they will find easy.
Blast, forgot NYT link -
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E07E2D6113AF932A1575AC0A9659C8B63
With all this A-level talk the only thing that is scaring me is that it is a decade since I got my results. Aargh
re 59. The concept of a poll of polls is a nonsense as is the idea that any poll has a margin of error. The latter suggests a level of accuracy that is only applicable where there are truly random samples. This we do not get with any opinion poll currently operating.
Polls are not generic - each pollster is totally different and you simply have to accept that.
31. we already have a major political party that closely resembles the “southern league”
89 Graeme. It appears to be a more long term trend. NC has seen an influx of high tech jobs into the state and also general migration from the north that overall leans the state more blue.
One other matter that marks NC as a state to watch is that it allows for early voting and with the legal racial voting profiling I noted earlier, we should be able to assess differential AA turnout and thus Obama’s ability to flip the state.
@94:
THIRTEEN YEARS.
Kill me now.
In this extract of an interview between Wesley Clark and Margaret Garner we can read his version of what happened when Mike Jackson refused the order to block the runway:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/conversation/jan-june01/clark_06-15.html#
James @ 94
You’re lucky it’s only a decade! For me it’s 21yrs yet it seems not nearly that long. My A-levels fell during the 1987 GE and my Deputy Headmaster caught me acting as a teller at the polling station when he came to vote and asked me why I wasn’t at home revising!
He was then handing out the A-level Maths paper the following week and as he handed me mine whispered “Let’s hope your result from this is as good as your Party’s was last week!”
88. if i was in charge my first reform of A-levels would be forcing people to take mostly “academic” subjects. the inflation is from far too many new “-ology” and ” studies” subjects.
maybe everyone should have to do at least two from a list like the following:
maths, english lang+lit, physics, chemistry, biology, geog, hist, art, music, major euro languages, classics
95 Mike S. Heretic !!!!!
[101] - The more important reform would be to, somehow, remove the snobbery that surrounds more vocational qualifications. There’s no point forcing people to do more rigorous academic A-levels if they are going to fail them, better to have them do something they could be good at, and that has practical value for society.
101. That would have been a pretty exhaustive list of possibilities when some of us did A-levels.
100 - My A-levels were horrifying except for Theology where I always knew I’d do well and didn’t even bother revising. My history was complicated when one of my teachers died 6 months before the exam with over half the course untaught. It’s a miracle I passed let alone got a decent grade.
98/100 Martin/Graeme. No comment !!
Jack W is 105.
104. exactly, and i don’t think the old system was broken.
103. i don’t think the vocational ones should be shoehorned into the concept of A-levels. they should probably be a different qualification that is more hands-on and includes apprenticeship/internship
101 - I would be keener on educating the sixth formers about the likely value of their chosen subjects. I’ve seen candidates with A levels in PE and “critical thinking”. No doubt such A levels have their place, just as degrees in media studies do, but they occupy pretty niche markets.
[107] - I wasn’t suggesting they be shoehorned into A-levels, but they obviously run along in parallel, and it is my impression that too many people are doing A-levels which are a waste of time for them. I believe they would be better off doing something else with their time.
70 The Republicans would just love to run against this guy - the attack ads write themselves. In a dangerous world do you really want the hero of Pristina airport only a heartbeat away from the presidency? - You have a point except given McCain’s recent pronouncements on Russia Clarke now looks a Liberal wuss by comparison.
100 Why North Carolina? SC has the larger AA population I thought.
A-Levels were/are a nightmare. The sooner they’re gone the better. A total misnomer as well. There is no “level” in A-Levels.
107. Ah yes but then we are back to separating people into sheep and goats, masters and servants, scholars and hewers of wood and drawers of water…just the hated 11-plus in another form….
theorangeoparty (hopefully not liberal), that’s lies and you know it. You really aren’t worth the time but this is the Larry Johnson line, the one who said that tapes were going to be released tomorrow showing his wife blaming whites for America’s problems - months ago…..
In other words, stop lying.
11 - Of course the book has been shown to be a tissue of lies by dfactcheckers. On the other hand we await analysis of McCain’s ties to lobbyists for Georgia. Fomenting war for commercial gain, surely not?
110 Punter. Indeed and Mississippi even more. Essentially white voters are more conservative in SC and AA less well organized.
107 My UCCA offers back 36 years ago were two B passes for LSE, Bristol, Exeter, Bath B & two C and two E passes from UCL (Grades were then A to E pass, O for O Level pass & F for fail), unimaginable now that you could get into good colleges with only two A’s and at less than A grade. The UCL offer was basically acceptance based on interview and expectation of good A levels.
But then exams were in solid subjects, no course work and hard marking (less than 10% A passes IIRC)
Whether A-levels are getting easier or not is largely irrelevant. Now nearly 25% of entries are A-grades. So a university or employer cannot tell whether a candidate is in the top 25% or top 5%, and thus it no longer fulfils its purpose.
I don’t see any decent policies from any party to sort it out to be honest. It has also had the knock-on effect that many more people need degrees to make themselves stand out, and so more people need higher degrees etc. etc. All a bit of a shambles really.
We give ourselves the illusion of being better educated, but I don’t think we are. I see interview candidates with great CVs on paper but with the people skills of Mr Bean or Jade Goody and who are (I’m sorry) much thicker than their qualifications would suggest. Worrying for the future.
112 - Ultimately life will find a means of separating people into different areas. The problem is that if we only define success as a degree then we are condemning a lot of kids to failure, we are also forcing the reasonably self aware who know they haven’t got a degree in them to basically scrap themselves at 16.
117. Exactly, it’s all about illusion, at every level. Government pedddling the illusion that its education policies are wonderful, teachers that their teaching is wonderful, pupils that their academic abilities are wonderful. Why upset such a happy situation?
Mista Canadian - this election is all about McCain now right, read the memo….
Does anyone care about who McCain’s veep pick is? He is the one that needs a boost in the polls after all. His choice is make or break for the campaign.
117 - I agree with your first paragraph completely.
However, I disagree with your last paragraph completely. Students coming through the system tend to be less articulate than older people only because they are younger and more inexperienced in life. I can vividly remember how easy it was for me to waltz into my first job despite filling out the application form ineptly, not having a clue what the job entailed, having done zero research on my prospective employer and having no commercial awareness.
The more recent generations of students may stumble and mumble, but they have done their research, know what’s expected and have worked hard to get their cv into shape over many years. Quality at the top end is steadily rising (though I’m very doubtful whether it is rising as fast as the grades would suggest).
117. more and more people doing degrees isn’t necessarily the bad thing it is often made out to be - more and more people are choosing to stay in education until 21 which surely gives them more chances to blossom academically and find their calling in life (whether they take those chances is another matter)
117 I think you a touch OTT !!
People seem to have a more professional approach to exams than in my day. It’s little wonder that people’s results are better.
Sadly being trained to be good at exams isn’t exactly the same as an education. In my exerience, if you have the right attitude, you learn 10x the amount for every answer you get wrong than the ones you get right.
84 - Well spotted Goupillon, one look at the blog about Clark and I smelled a rat. Nobody links to a blog, they link to news articles if they want to be taken seriously.
Having said that, I’d be surprised if it was Clark, McCain has enough problems over foreign policy as it is. He’d becoming more and more tied to Bush, has been seen to be even more gung-ho and claims to know the subject whilst making a string of gaffes about who is who and where they are. A disaster area doesn’t need someone to point out how big the disaster area is.
112: Why is the 11+ hated? A bit strong don’t you think? 0/164 grammar schools’ catchment areas have voted to close them, so evidence for your claim is, well, thin.
I don’t think they are the best answer, too simplistic, we need a greater variety of schools though. It is rubbish that at the moment you are allowed to select on “aptitude but not ability”. So you can be good at sport, music, art, anything that isn’t academic in fact
Pretending that some kids are not brighter than other kids is poor preparation for life. The tories got in a mess over grammar schools, but they do have a policy of introducing more setting, which is a nod to the real world at least.
110. But whites in the rest of the South (outside VA, FL and some of NC) tend to be extremely culturally conservative, and there’s a lot of racial tension about. Virginia has in many ways lost its Southern cultural attitude to demographic trends, while North Carolina has a more divided white electorate (although the larger AA population may make up for this). Florida of course hasn’t been “Southern” for a long time, except for the panhandle.
122.Higher education for all: waste of time and money! Just an excuse to get people off the dole and doing something else. It is hidden unemployment! Employers do not want people who get mind numbling bored doing jobs they are unsuited too. Nor do people want to spend years missing paid work for no long-term return. The days of graduates earn Hundreds of Grand more over a lifetime are long gone. When people do earn Hundreds of grand more it is not usually because they have a degree unless it is vocational but because they have the skills employers require. Higher education for 50% of the population is not viable at this time; their are not the jobs that require it either.
124 - And so random then links to the NYT which paints a fairer picture about possible issues of micromanaging and unnecessary risk taking. A bit of a change from the foaming at the mouth ranting painting Clark as some sort of evil thug in the previous blog article.
100
Stripling youngsters. I got mine in 1983.
I want so much to add ‘back when they were actually worth something’
124 I think you project your own views and prejudices into believing people will see it as you see. Clarke kicked up a huge row with McCain but his military record mean’t he got away with it. A ‘Civilian’ would have been toast.
121: We have never given a job to anyone as poorly prepared as you
We do still get good candidates, especially for good jobs, but lower down the scale the numeracy, spelling and attitude leave a lot to be desired in many (not all) cases. We also get a lot of non-UK EU applicants who are on average much more impressive.
122: impossible to say how many is too many, but 50% going to University seems crazy.
123: I think you missed my point, I was deliberately not commenting on whether people are better at exams, or whether the exams are easier, since I am not in a position to say. Whatever the reason, there is now little or no differentiation between good and excellent.
The problem with Clark is that his credentials are entirely based on one area. That means a successful swift boating, whether the allegations are true or false, could succeed in undermining that one area and frame him as purely a trigger happy general. With no other visible career in politics, he has nothing else to fall back on, and it becomes a his word versus others scenario. It would attach even more risk to Obama, which is the very weak point of Obama’s campaign.
I do think that Mike’s thoughts on this threat are very astute though. Other speakers can be rejigged, but its unlikely they’d mess Bill about considering past tensions, and they wouldn’t have given him an important spot to move to a less important one later. The VP will be acceptable to the Clintons. Perhaps Bayh it is.
130 - My point is that McCain doesn’t need someone to counter his supposed usp, he’s increasingly doing that himself and he needs no help.
117 - I agree with your point that it is bad news if you cannot easily differentiate between the top 5% and the top 25%. However, it has always been the case that some people who are decent at passing exams have little emotional intelligence, interpersonal skills or common sense, while some people with poor exam results have all those qualities in spades.
112. I was being ironic.
Academic selection was and is hated by the educational establishment because it gave working class people the opportunity to rise out of their class background and thus reduced the chances of a social revolution ( I know that sounds incredibly archaic but within the NUT etc. you really do still find people who think like that, and in the 1960s and 1970s there were hordes of such people).
The grammar school system was scrapped because it was too successful - grammar school kids were outperforming those from public schools, getting an increasing share of places at the top universities. Real social mobility seemed to be arriving - a disaster for socialists, and to a lesser extent the privileged as well.
135. oops sorry reply to 125.
134. You can tell the latter skills in interview anyway though.
130 - But isn’t the trouble with picking Clark that it sends the clear message that this is a security election? That plays into McCain’s hands. It is great to have people like Clark and perhaps Powell on-hand to speak for you on the TV news on the promise of a juicy White House job come January. But not as VP pick.
137 - Well, to the extent you are ever likely to be able to in a job application process. A lot of crap employees were interviewed for the job and appeared to be good picks at the time.
133 I think you’re sorely mistaken on that. Obama has to be super careful, because of McCain’s record he can’t go full throttle. Clarke who has two purple hearts from Vietnam amongst a cluster of other medals need have no such fear of being accused of disrespecting McCain’s service if he criticises him on National Security.
As of next year there is an A star grade for A levels as well as GCSEs. There is no fixed percentage but it will do some of the separating of good A from A.
131 - I did pay for it in the interview, which played an even bigger part of the process then than now. One of my interviewers said to me: “Quite frankly, Mr antifrank, you’ve got all the paper qualifications but you’ve never done anything interesting, have you?” I said something about being interesting in my spare time, but even as a fairly dozy 19 year old, I got the point.
137. 139. I find interviews to be far more accurate measurements of ability than CVs, which are frequently works of fantasy.
138 Possibly but not hugely I’d say.
140 - I think Kristol is bluffing when he says that Powell is going to endorse Obama (so he can claim he had second thoughts later) but if it is true then who needs Clark?
134 - Emotional intelligence, common sense and interpersonal skills can usually be instilled in an otherwise bright person. Intellectual horsepower is pretty much innate - you’ve either got it or you haven’t.
Does the experience of previous elections suggest that different political views of P and VP candidates harm the prospects of the P candidate? My guess is that voters don’t care about the views of the VP, as long as he’s not obviously idiotic.
138. Yes, I think so. And not only will it make it about national security more generally, it will point out quite loudly that Obama lacks credentials in this area.
146 Good news then for John Redwood.
145 Quite. But I don’t think Powell will endorse barring some severe provocation that offends him. I think either McCain or Obama will be keen to be seen to have him on board after November.
Profile on Florida:
http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/08/12/inside-obama-s-sunshine-state-onslaught.aspx
It’s worth pointing out that, despite Obama spending more, McCain’s organisation in Florida is far better than Obama’s. It’s the one state McCain is ahead in.
151. Just noticed that article got the number of field offices for each campaign the wrong way round.
146. i disagree with that pretty strongly, especially at the top end of “intellect”.
there are few good jobs where intellectual horsepower is actually a prerequisite - with the right personal skills it is possible to harness the brains of others.
The point of a CV is to get an interview, not a job. In my case while looking for candidates I always look for only a basic level of qualifications (if a degree is required, a third is as good as a first in my eyes) and some evidence that the candidate is interseting on some way (has taken time off and travelled, has tried different careers, has different outside interests etc). I always think the acid test is could I spend six months working on a project with this person for 10 hours per day. This is all about (to quote antifrank) emotional intelligence, common sense and interpersonal skills.
149, 153 - You can lead a horse to water, but a pencil must be lead.
Obama-watchers may be interested in this, which has just broken in the US blogsphere.
It seems to cast doubt on Obama’s name, his citizenship and his eligibility to run for president.
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/08/fresh-doubts-over-obama-citizenship.html
I think post #2 is as succint as it can be.
Picking Clarke makes this about national security (remember Momm issues v Daddy issues), which is good for McCain
UNLESS
The election is already doomed to be about Russia/Iraq/North Korea, and so picking Clarke is a good remedial step (I don’t think we’re there yet)
OR
They are taking the Rovian strategy of attacking the strength. If McCain’s sole trump card is that he is the best to be CiC, becasue he is useless at talking about domestic policy, then beat that and he loses.
I said before that Rice would be a dangerous VP for McCain, because there would be comparisons of her experience v Obama’s as an African American (him in safe hawaii, her in Alabama). Comparisons between a Presidential nominee and their opponents VP nominee demeans the former by virtue of the comparison. This would happen if McCain (never a senior officer) was being compared to 4-star General Clarke.
Clarke is dour, he is universal, he is sturdy. After McCain’s comments, no-one can hold being agressive with the Russians against him. He wouldn’t be a bad pick.
I think Kaine is out, I’m still open on Warner, Bayh is the safest choice, Clarke is almost certainly on the list.
156. New day, same old hate-mongering smears.
154. this is the logical approach.
i am starting to wonder whether “time off to travel” makes someone interesting any more - this now seems to be the default time-wasting option for posh losers.
O/T North Carolina is trending Dem, independent of Obama.
The Research Triangle is growing, attracting scientists from the (liberal) universities of the North East and West Coast, and Charlotte is now the second biggets banking centre, behind New York, overtaking Chicago, and offers a much better quality of life (beaches, mountains, gardens etc) which is attractive to young liberal college graduates.
Great Gubernatorial election between Bev Purdue (D - Lt Gov) and Mayor of Charlotte Patrick McCrory (GOP).
One of the few races where the GOP might gain, though not on current polling. Shame, as Mccrory is a top candidate.
146 - “Emotional intelligence, common sense and interpersonal skills can usually be instilled in an otherwise bright person”
Ha ha ha ha ha (etc). 149 is a brilliant riposte.
140 - On Clark’s purple hearts, remember Kerry was a war hero up against a draft dodger for all the good it did him. If Obama makes security a big issue in this election he will lose even if his running mate has all the finest qualities of Nelson, Biggles and Batman put together. McCain has the security brand and it is too late to change it. You can mitigate by having some good talking heads but no more than that. Don’t for goodness sake choose a VP if the message of that choice is “security is the number one issue”.
74 According to the Daily Mail, boys dont take A Levels.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1044773/A-level-pass-rate-rockets-highest-level-2-8-exams-failed.html
135 That attitude isn’t dead. I recently read one prominent Labour blogger say he objected to the principle of social mobility, per se, because it meant inequality.
re 74 Martin you do know the pope’s catholic don’t you?
Of course there was going to be a record and A-levels are now just a farce.
161 - I have lost count of the number of inarticulate spods who have over the course of a few years mutated into amusing, charismatic and sensible human beings. Of course some don’t, but usually it’s for want of trying.
I have never yet met a stupid person who became bright.
@156:
Thanks for that. No, really.
“Barry”. Chortle.
From Mike’s Intro:
“Bill Clinton, whose relationship with Obama has never been easy, has been given the slot at the Denver convention just before the V-P nominee.This can only mean, surely, that the chosen person is totally acceptable to the Clintons.”
Mike - Couldn’t you just posibly be overlooking the person who would be the most acceptable of all to the Clintons?
One, Hillary Rodham Clinton
164, nonsense, the annual A-level Fruitiest Pictures tabloid contest is a grand tradition of British journalism:p
@163:
Allowing everybody the opportunity to succeed also means allowing everybody the opportunity to fail.
re 141 again this is government sophistry and illusion. Why not call the “A*” grade “A” and then the “A” grade “B” and so on?
156: If that’s genuine then John McCain’s father.
159. Whatever their original purpose, time-wasting or otherwise, a proper travelling experience universally makes people more rounded, if only because they’re having to make decisions and organise for themselves for six months, rather than rely on Mum & Dad to do it for them.
160. If it weren’t for the occasional hit by hurricanes, North Carolina could be the perfect place to live.
165. I entirely agree with this.
166. Actually, thats the one part of the article that’s true. He was known as Barry at law school.
156 - orangeparty, stop lying.
Why are you so keen to spread known lies? Why do you hide behind known nutjobs who have been shown to have lied consistently and with no proof? Why are you so keen to spread these lies regardless?
You link to the Euston Manifesto on your blog, from this we can tell that you have an interest in neoconservative positions. Your posts suggest that you are one in fact. Can you confirm that your compatriots are responsible for advising Georgia on their recent actions and wish to profit from them? Can you confirm that there is now an attempt to create a smokescreen around this now it has gone horribly wrong? Isn’t it in fact the case that the only way you can win this election is to attempt to remove your opponent from the ballot? Actually, don’t bother, I know what you will say anyway.
As I say, stop lying.
170. Because it would screw over the first year that had the change!
@168:
Ooh, the Telegraph’s got some shameless A Level tottywhoring frontpaged:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/
165 I’ve met highly intelligent people who are quite inarticulate (even stupid) outside their area of expertise.
I think that it’s impossible to instill intellectual brilliance in someone (that is innate). Even if someone is innately brilliant though, they need to learn the benefits of hard work and self-discipline.
But I think, apart from those people who are totally stupid, good teaching can certainly instill a reasonable degree of intellectual competence in most people.
And if you’re looking for an employee, so long as there is a basic degree of intellectual competence, good judgement, shrewdness, affability etc. count for a good deal.
114. That post leaps effortlessly over libel and into deranged territory. Do you have any actual, you know, evidence for either claim?
157. “After McCain’s comments, no-one can hold being agressive with the Russians against him.”
There’s a difference between being prepared to push back when the Russians push and starting a shooting war (thank God for Mike Jackson) because your amour propre has been offended.
But even if we do concede your point are we allowed to hold larking around with Ratko Mladic in defiance of direct orders against him? What would the Obama campaign do if Clark is Veep nominee and Mladic is arrested and sent to the Hague this autumn to give a contemporary twist to those photos? Obama has already taken some heat this year over his friendly ties to unrepentant terrorists (Ayers and Dohrn), does he really want a Veep nominee who can be directly linked to probably the most notorious war criminal at large today as well?
I was talking to my niece a couple of days ago. She has now got 2As and a B and has been accepted by her preferred choice.
She was amazed that back in the mid 1960’s I need 3Cs for my first choice and 2Es for the second, both now Russell Group universities, in order to study Physics. I managed to get 3As and 2 special papers, but this was enough to be awarded a County Senior Scholarship.
My strongly held view is that awarding so many grade As is beneficial to neither the students nor the universities.
35. Clark was operating under orders in early 90s in Serbia and agreed with the policy. I was referring to the Kosovan independence moves of February this year, which have given Putin the excuse he was looking for.
If Clark had advised against these, and been more circumspect about America pushing ahead into other parts of the globe, it might have saved a few wars here and there. That’s a good thing in my book.
Clark might not be the smoothest of politicians as he comes from the military, but he seems to suffer from the possession of common sense. He would serve Obama well.
177 - More evidence than you have for the lies you spread.
Corsi is a known liar, nothing they write can be believed.
So what about Scheunemann then huh?
I have had to interview for a wide variety of areas over the years, usually as part of some sort of a panel. Being part of these panels gives you some insight into the tricks of the trade and I ALWAYS make myself imagine how good the successful candidate will actually be in post immediately afterwards.
Yes, CVs can be fantasy but if the CV and application aren’t filled out properly does the candidate want the post ? I find that this is actually a reasonable indicator to effectiveness in post. They have time to think and polish their answer. Certainly they can copy from elsewhere but even the initiative to do that is not necessarily a bad thing.
Interview. I have yet to see an interview process which I find totally acceptable and I find performance at interview a poor reflector on final performance in post.
Degree and Post Degree qualifications. Difficult to judge one against another and an excessive number of postgrad qualifications often demonstrates a marked reluctance actually to work.
A Level performance is a good guide to judging candidates against each other, bearing in mind that an A now would have been a B- in 1990 and about a D+ 1980 but a B in 1970 - yes there was grade deflation in the 1970s.
176 Innate brilliance rarely transforms into something tangible without hard work.
People who have done well often worked very hard, it is foolish to overlook that. It can be a bad thing though. Seen so many straight A students either burn out or lose it when they eventually drop a grade.
Hmmm … still not convinced about Clarke enough to put anything on him. Having a military man on the tickt will only serve to highlight the candidate’s lack of experience in defence matters. Obama does not want to turn the debate over to security issues as this is lose, lose for him.
“Securing America’s Future” must also be a red herring. Maybe he is weighing up the reaction the the possibility of Clarke.
Clarke does not fit the “Change” agenda. I can still see a real surprise Bloomberg perhaps, Richardson? As the field narrows there could still be value in some of the “long shots”
Can people lay off OrangeBook for being some sort of smear-monger? This story has been reported in the US blogosphere, it could have an impact even if completely false, so he’s not out of order highlighting it here.
The idea that he is a neo-con because he links to the Euston Manifesto is silly, ukpaul. I fully respect that you are very hot on smears against Obama, but tarring anyone who dares to even mention them on such flimsy evidence does your cause no credit.
166 - Haven’t you?!?!? I have lost count of the number of people I have met who achieved poor grades at school but who are superb at their jobs.
161
True
But soem subjects are so easy that anyone with half a brain…
I studied physics and maths at university several decades ago.:-)
Second year we were bored and enrolled in sociology and attended 1 lecture each term *the first one). At the end of the year I and the 2 other students with me (also doing Physics and Maths) sat the Sociologt exams and passed. We had never opened a text book..
I doubt if much has changed.
It was also notable that those doing physics and maths sat and worked evenings and weekends in the libararies.. Those doing arts course sat and drank in the bars..
The compensation was that with a reasonable degree you got 9 job offers and could pick and choose: which no dount explains why I am a gardener:-)
@173:
ukpaul, The Euston Manifesto is hardly ‘neoconservative’, assuming you actually know what that word means. It is a strange mix of trite old left cliches viewed through a prism of distrust of the new left’s alliance with far right Islamism.
177. What lies? That really is quite offensive. Everything I’ve said is either directly supported by links or easily checkable - I even linked to the picture of Clark being pally with Mladic so you could see for yourself, FFS. Can you please calm down for a moment? You’re really not doing your guy any good if this is the level of support you’re providing. At least we have Socrates and Tapestry here demonstrating that you can still be calm and rational and an Obama supporter.
Blast -189 should refer to 181, not 177. Apologies.
179, depends on what grades are considered to be for.
If you want to measure a level of achievement then a fairly static grade barrier (% needed for an A or suchlike) works, and the number of grade As will vary.
I’d prefer to see it as a differentiation measure, where the grade boundaries shift according to the marks achieved. Ie, if five kids doing maths get 83, 85, 99, 32 and 88, having a grade A for over 80% won’t help the universities or employers decide whether or not the kid is clever enough.
185 - Sorry Morus but I’m not going to lay off, that’s what they expect from soft liberals and I’m not playing their game.
He is deliberately spreading lies and he knows it.
As for my allegations against McCain they are in the press but I will not accept any crap for someone quoting blogs, it’s the echo chamber effect that leads to people believing lies unless they are smacked down early and heavily. It was the same with the Muslim lie and look how many believe that now.
Okay they may *not* be a neo-con, they may just be a stirrer which is not as bad in the long term but just as dangerous in the short term.
Here’s the main point reiterated in the LA Times.
“So where did the Georgians get the silly idea that the U.S. would bail them out?
Maybe from John McCain, Republican heir apparent, whose top foreign policy advisor, Randy Scheunemann, also just happens to be a highly paid lobbyist for the Georgian government. Whoops — correction! Scheunemann usedto be a highly paid lobbyist for Georgia. The McCain campaign says Scheunemann hasn’t taken a dime from the Georgians since May 15. (Which is lucky for the Georgians, who are going to need all the spare cash they can get to rebuild all the stuff the Russians just bombed.)
According to the Washington Post, the relationship between Scheunemann and Georgia used to be very cozy (not to mention lucrative for Scheunemann). Between Jan. 1, 2007, and May 15, 2008, while Scheunemann was also a paid McCain advisor, “Georgia paid his firm $290,000 in lobbying fees.”"
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/sunday/la-oe-brooks14-2008aug14,0,4988958.column
Attempting this lie about birth certificates is just a smokescreen for the above.
191 Surely in the end it matters more in absolute terms what you can do rather than who you are better (or worse) than.
When selecting for a uni course, wouldn’t it matter more to get a student who could solve problem x, y or z rather than getting someone who was “the best” who may in a poor year not be able to do much.
@192:
UKPaul, you’re being just as silly as the people you’re angrily berating.
Comforting though it may be to grasp at straws to help you desperately prove that the Georgian altercation is McCain’s fault, the leaps of logic you’re having to undergo does you no credit.
Are you seriously positing a conspiracy of blogs to deliberately hide McCain’s involvement in ‘advising’ Georgia to stick its fingers in the South Ossettian plug socket?
188 - It was supported by neo-cons to try and keep a hold on the left. They are the epitome of the neo-con adage that they are socialists hijacked by ‘reality’.
189 - Random, I have no ‘guy’ I am merely attacking the GOP and McCain. I’d prefer Barr to him in fact. I am not an Obama supporter as such, he needs to be more liberal on issues such as the death penalty and such. He’s merely the best of a bad bunch.
As for lies, the difference between your first link and your second shows how one reports well and the other spins.
173. what if they only meet other posh 6th formers hoping to “find themselves” in the “amazing” surroundings of “macchu picchu, darling”
a lot of these people immediately become more rounded the moment they realise they have no job, no ideas what to do, and financial support from mummy and daddy is softening up. at this point decision making and organisation really start.
193, that would be a good point, but unfortunately the mass A grades aren’t being greeted with hysterical cheering from the universities, some of whom are creating their own tests to sort the wheat from the chaff.
A-levels have become devalued, and one way to sort it would be to make it so that no more than 20-30% can achieve the top grade. It would also remove the political pressure to make exams easier to increase the number of A grades.
194 - There is more proof than anything posted about birth certificates. The Georgia/McCain link is irrefutable.
As for why they are spreading this sort of stuff, it’s just what they do, they’ve done it for years and they expect people to lap it up or to take it lying down. It’s not a particular smokescreen it’s just service as usual.
I’m glad that they feel as though they are being attacked and are offended actually. About time they saw themselves reflected.
192 You seem to be doing a good job smearing McCain while claiming you don’t like dirty politics.
I have no idea if there is anything fishy about Obamas birth certificate, seems unlikely there’s a story there but many of my family can’t produce theirs since a theft of the originals as copies would be needed from Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawian governments and its proved difficult to get them, many other people rely on copies for same reason that originals are lost. Would have thought its an easily squashed story as Hawaii must have a state/county/city register.
Agree with Morus though that its useful knowing the rumours on the blogs - people read them and they inform voting. Obama’s team know that and are out there squashing them as they appear.
@195:
Calm yourself duck, you’ll give yourself a thrombo.
The Euston Manifesto was written by a number of well-known left-winger journalists and thinkers, who did and continue to describe themselves as such. That you may disagree with their stance doesn’t make them neocons. Indeed, I suspect you have little idea what a neocon is, much less be able to identify one at close range.
The thing is, you’re coming across as a ranting loon right now, which is doing your argument no credit. We’re not stupid here (mostly) and I think we’ve figured out for ourselves that the “birth certificate” story is almost certainly unreconstructed drivel, and the “McCain caused Georgia” angle is amusingly sweet wishful thinking.
We don’t need you angrily calling everybody and everyone idiots and liars.
If people are going to believe this stuff, they will do so independent of the ferocity of the rebuttal.
The problem is that by attacking every slur, the defence (which is true) begins to lok hysterical, and that actually helps the attack.
I mentioned on this blog the Huma Abedin rumours, the John Edwards lovechild rumours, and other things that were slurs - none of which were done to hurt a candidate, but rather because I knew they would have an impact on the betting prices.
OrangeParty isn’t a sockpuppet for the Republican campaign just because he brought a rumour to our attention, and links to a blog on the right of the LibDems. Keep attacking the slurs, but don’t kill the messenger.
197 - If you fix a static percentage of top grades then you will only encourage Univeristy entrance criteria that ignore the exam.
177. my experience is that within a very broad category based on a simple category such as degree from decent university, the academic grades matter little beyond that. talking to someone for 5 minutes can often reveal that they are actually very bright (despite being a toilet cleaner) or actually very stupid (despite having a string of higher degrees).
i certainly went to uni with some exceptionally bright people and some astonishingly stupid ones (considering the exam grades they must have achieved), the ones who are doing well now are, almost without exception, the charismatic, interesting ones who had lots of friends, got on with people, did a wide variety of stuff.
within this group there is no apparent correlation between academic results and this success.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/invite/birthcert
The email on the right is how to respond IMHO.
Further to the earlier discussion on North Carolina here is a report by “USA Today” on the campaign in the state :
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-08-13-obama-ad_N.htm
200 - Calm? From you Martin?
I suppose when you mirror back these tactics that’s how it lools but it’s calculated not emotional. The ‘other side’ never realise the emotion of what they say until it is reflected back.
I also know full well about neocons as they are my nemesis, my enemy, you cannot deny that the positions taking in the manifesto are those of the neocons as regards imperialism, Israel and so on. I though that was pretty much a given by now.
I’m not really aiming anything at you, it’s just a public altercation where my target is those who post this stuff. Sorry for dragging you in……
199 - When someone is attacked, attack back.
Sebelius
I forgot to specify @ 8 that I laid her several times when she was THE big favorite — before the Kaine fever.
I laid her quite heavily, for I did it repetitively.
I really hope she’ll will not happen to cost me dearly!
Please Obama, select Warner or Clarke, or anybody but Clinton, Sebelius, Kaine or Bayh….
@206:
I agree with Morus here. I think your manner of response is undermining your argument, namely that the birth certificate story is laughable. Which is a pity, as your argument is correct.
“Sebelius
I forgot to specify @ 8 that I laid her several times when she was THE big favorite”
I hope the vetting team picked this up!
206. Matey, you’re not “mirroring back” anything, you’re just being hysterical. the fact that people on the same basic side as you are telling you to cool it as well ought to give you a clue.
201 - Morus - The problem has been in not defending attacks. Expecting that people won’t believe it. Well that gets you over 10% of Americans believing that Obama is a Muslim.
So what do you do if ignoring it is counterproductive?
Why not attack? Okay, the Georgia story may be nothing but people get to know it and, instead of just weakly saying ‘that’s not true’ you also plant seeds of doubt.
There’s a reason that the right call the left ‘girls’ and deride them for effeminacy, it’s because there’s little fight in them.
I also disagree that the messenger is irrelevant - the messenger is the immediate point of contact and with something as intangible as a lie then to have a solid presence to attack and discredit is much more effective.
I’m just using the tactics so long used from the right to see how it feels. I would hope that people can see the mechanics of what I’m doing, the testing out of a method.
202, they’re beginning to ignore A-levels anyway.
208 - The last paragraph of my post at 211 may be illuminating.
It’s quite fun actually, I can see the attraction of doing this.
210 - Oh but I am, that you are angered is a success.
“199 - When someone is attacked, attack back.”
If only more liberals realised this, instead of asking their enemies if they’d be interested in a slice of organic vegetarian quiche.
For what it’s worth I agree wholeheartedly with your content and manner!
Wanna arm-wrestle over who hates NeoConservatives more?
Karl Rove in the “Wall Street Journal” says he sees four battleground states - Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121867218820238903.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Re. 95 (I think), it’s now a decade and a half since mine, so count yourself lucky.
….the ones who are doing well now are, almost without exception, the charismatic, interesting ones who had lots of friends, got on with people, did a wide variety of stuff…..
How then, one wonders, did gross social inadequates like Ed Balls or Gordon Brown ever achieve high office?
UK.Paul “the right call the left ‘girls’ and deride them for effeminacy”
– That was not my critique. I was simply saying that you and your cool kind — the nice people (environmentalist, multiculti, globalist and slightly hostile to all the glorious manifestations of sovereign power) — were contributing to what we might call the YOUG-GIRLIZATION of taught : naively dreaming of a cool world without evil, without borders, without neither police or army…
That’s all!
YOUNG-GIRLIZATION….
“Naively dreaming of a cool world without evil…”
No, that’s the NeoCons.
215 — Thanks for that, Jack. I’m a huge fan of Rove.
220 — Banned Boy — No, the Neo-cons want “An End to Evil”….
http://www.aei.org/publications/bookID.650/book_detail.asp
As if that’s any less naive!!!
221 — We can tell.
All these posts ranting about ‘neo-cons’ are starting to resemble those we periodically get gibbering about the ‘illuminati’…
Jack @ 215
Surely there must be more than these 4? I could probably have picked 3 of those myself!
Ohio, is obvious, because it was on a knife edge last time. Colorado was fairly close too and is trending Dem. I’ll take your word on VA from your earlier post, and Michigan…hmmmm…not convinced this is going to be anything but a safe Dem hold.
Interesting that Rove hasn’t mentioned Nevada, NM, NH, Florida, Indiana, NC(!), or Iowa. Also, nobody has mentioned why Missouri the ‘bellweather’ is leaning Rep. when Obama is favoured to win overall. Or are ‘demographics’ at work here too?
Michigan is not safe, especially givne the Kwame Kilpatrick affair (sorry to nag, but I think it will play a big part there!).
Missouri used to be a bell-weather - Obama is trailing here, but the Democratic candidate for governor is well ahead. Not so much ‘balanced’ as ‘rampantly inconsistent’!
Key swing-states (beyond the obvious) - Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, New Hampshire
VP Market
McCain’s Michigan visit stirs up Romney buzz
http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080813/NEWS15/80813059
“Colorado, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio”
To that I would add Nevada and Montana.
(it’s quite exhilarating this ranting stuff, I can see why right wing talk radio gets such a response, the question is, is it even possible to be similarly vituperative from a liberal position and have the same effect, beyond the immediate respondee?)
225 - Ah but the neocons have actually been in government whilst the illuminati….?
Seriously, McCain has behind him a group of neoconservatives advising him on foreign policy, it is probably the most scary area of their thinking and McCain’s foreign policy positions have become increasingly allied to them.
213. Angered? Hardly. You apparently haven’t noticed so I’ll spell it out for you - I’ve stopped attempting to debate with you for a while now because you so rarely say anything rational enough to be engaged with, so instead I’ve started patronising you. It’s quite a long word, so you might want to check a dictionary.
There are plenty of other Obama supporters around here who can maintain a sensible debate, but you’re down at the level of mockery at the moment. Clear?
Runnymede @ 225
It’s just an excuse to use the adjective ‘conservative’ against anything perceived as bad/wrong/old-fashioned by the liberal-left.
The BBC do it at every possible opportunity and are perfectly happy to apply it to anyone from the Kremlin old-guard of the USSR to the catholic church and a great many others in between!
229 - Ok, as a thought-experiment, I can see you’re having fun! I don’t agree with you, and think that the mad extremes 9like talk radio) actually undermines a lot of moderates who have the occasional genuine right/left opinion, but constrain themselves for fear of being compared to the nutty wings of their party.
It makes politics centrist, yet fills the centre with the weak of heart.
I understand your point (genuinely) even if I disagree with it - if you could focus your ranting on the smear itself, or one of us regulars delivering it, I think it would be a magnanimous gesture to not explode on a new/occasional poster who might just be trying to bring something up. Deal?
“For what it’s worth I agree wholeheartedly with your content and manner!”
I wish I could actually feel it though, as opposed to being at a remove. Is this the curse of liberalism? That the sort of self righteousness of the right helps them but that it hinders liberals?
This is a serious point and I was wondering how far you can push it? I look at someone like Galloway and can see that he means it and he achieves a similar effect, but he is more extreme than me, a firebrand socialist par excellence.
Have there been, in fact, any firebrand centrist politicians? People who could use the angry styling of the fringes but to promote the centre of the time?
OMG
‘The Russian troops are destroying the city of Gori. There are sounds of explosions. They are mining the city,’ spokesman Shota Utiashvili said.
‘They are destroying everything in Poti port… they are destroying the newly built roads in western Georgia,’ he added.
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/08/14/afx5322806.html
234 - The problem is that the Left is inclined to be relativist about its politics (except for the old Marxists).
Firebrand centrists? Peter Oborne, in ‘The Rise of the Political Classes’ described Frank Field as ‘proof that one need not occupy the political extremes to be a radical’. He’s just not as obviously a great orator.
8 years ago, McCain would probably have qualified as a Firebrand centrist - Sen William Proxmire (D-WI) might have done as well. Martin Bell (Independent MP) and John Bercow (only recently) are the only others that come to mind. Maybe Richard Shepherd MP.
@234:
I’m put in mind the Fabian Chant:
“WHAT DO WE WANT?
Gradual change!
WHEN DO WE WANT IT?
As soon as is reasonably practicable!”
234. It’s pretty hard to get immoderate about moderate views, without sounding ridiculous.
McCain: Lieberman and Graham are going to Georgia
Mac Campaign:
“The situation in Georgia remains fluid and dangerous. As soon as possible, my colleagues Senator Lieberman and Senator Graham will be traveling to Georgia. They’re both members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. I hope that other members of the Armed Services Committee in the Senate and they will go together and receive an assessment of the situation and what we need to do in the future to avoid further escalation and also to protect the independence and freedom of the people of this brave democratic ally, the country of Georgia. Thank you.”
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/08/13/mccain-lieberman-and-graham-are-going-to-tbilisi/
Morus @ 233 - “fear of being compared to the nutty wings of their party”
You have summed up exactly how I feel as someone deeply EU-sceptic, but who can’t understand why for many people this has to go hand-in-hand with being a xenophobic, swivel-eyed loon!
There is not such thing as a moderate view — only radical tiking is of any value.
A moderate, a centrist, is someone who cannot think; they are soft, impotent, beta male/female (both usually); in other words, they are the materials of which the Eichman of this world are made….
@241:
Let’s burn us some centrists!
231 - Random, I think you may have mixed up some of my response, much of which was solely to theorangeparty, I thought that I’d finished our mini debate as I’d said the difference was between your initial link (spin/lies) with the NYT (pretty objective reporting). I didn’t object at all to the latter but was musing as to your objective in initially posting the extreme version.
As for your anger, it’s clear that it is possible to hit such a nerve by responding to the poster individually. I know your political positioning is far, far to the right of me, and I hadn’t seen you here for months anyway, my goal is to make you feel that though so I have been successful.
For a wider audience - a lot of my posting recently has been about McCain and hardly mentioning the word Obama. Again, this is on purpose, to turn one debate into a different one instead. With polls talking about Obama fatigue I think there is, unusually, a valid reason for being negative about your opponent. If they attempt to make the election about *you* then you can respond by turning it around to being about *them* instead.
241 - Nonsense, Philip - it takes remarkable power and strength of character to be a centrist, when Scylla and Charybodis will try to pull you to their side or tear you apart.
The centrists we have are, in the main, as you describe - careerists lacking principle, who will comprimise on everything. However, that shouldn’t preclude the return of centrists who were fundamentally principled, and saw their role as to pull both wings together by force of their charismatic political will. Such men are the true ubermensch, and should not be mocked.
233 - Ah but Morus, how do we mortals know who really is a new poster? I know Mike was cracking doen on name changers but is it still the case that a lot of similar views are posted under different names by potentially the same person?
ukpaul @ 245
Yes, it’s really John McCain and the neo-cons making all these posts under different aliases…
245 - Heaven forfend that we give people the benefit of the doubt!
We do still have a few instances of people whom we suspect of writing under more than one name, but rarely for sock-puppetry (extra support for their argument), and it is not common.
My point is, if they are hardened smear-sockpuppets, they won’t feel the full force of your attack because it is not at their usual identity. If they are newbies, then be nice anyway!
I need to go and get a passport. See you all later.
226 Graeme. I think Rove was indicating his own four closest swing states.
ARSE(BUTT) has the following as Toss Up states (less than 5%)
Alaska .. Nevada .. Colorado .. Montana .. North Dakota .. Missouri .. Indiana .. Michigan .. Ohio .. Virginia .. North Carolina .. Florida.
@247:
“see y’all later”
Get some practice in for when you’re veep.
O/T - The Spectator has an article this week that may be of interest to a certain pber…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/the-magazine/features/892526/on-the-road-with-a-longdistance-morris-dancer.thtml
“It’s pretty hard to get immoderate about moderate views, without sounding ridiculous.”
And, in a nutshell, I think you’ve hit on the problem that people have in responding to the sort of smears seen upthread.
I ignore it - it has no effect.
I try just pointing out they are wrong - it has no effect.
I claim that it is a lie and point out how - they get personally angry, nobody else gets involved.
I exaggerate and smear in response - people notice but it is seen as unusual and attracts a metacommentary but little about the actual issues.
I’ve been racking my brain as to *how* you can respond effectively. My sense of morality means that I cannot let a smear become a known truth but if all pathways are ineffective then the possibility that a lie can go unchecked is too horrible to contemplate.
Why is this important to polling? Well, as I mentioned, over 10% believe that Obama is Muslim. Now that is a known lie and one which could well pervert viting patterns.
It’s nice to read this thread: It’s got a nice balance of nutters from all sides:-)
Morus — You know as well as I do that “fundamentally principled” people are radical — by which I mean that they do believe strongly in some deeply rooted principles on which they’ll never compromised. They are trees, truly radical people.
As opposed to soft-thinking people, thinking white one day, dark the other day — without stability, they are more like parasite, infecting one’s organisation.
Centrists or soft people are the materials of which mob are informed, and bureaucrats– for there weak, soft-thinking ineptia open them to be in return infected by fools, which they’ll emulate for a while.
One of the big problem of our time is this tyranny of a soft taught; it creates this politically correct ambiance in which nothing true or radical can be effectively said or done.
247 - There was a lot of it a year or two ago, occasionally you could trip them up and they would explode in a ball of confusion as to who they really were.
251 - Err, ‘voting’ not ‘viting’.
245. I can only speak for myself. I’m a long time lurker but only an occasional and fairly recent poster. I have never used any name other than “Random” here (a round of applause to anybody who spots the reference - I’m a fan of pulp science fiction if that helps…), and to my knowledge nobody else around here has posted under that name either.
The poster previously know as Sean is now know as Albion Sean (to differentiate from the established Sean T).
New thread - Do the voters always get it right?
@255:
Random Dent, daughter of the Late Dentarthurdent?
Jack @248
Interesting stuff! I think Alaska will stay GOP, despite the problems there. Likewise i don’t think Montana or North Dakota are going to switch from the Republicans either. (Isn’t Montana where the original ‘right-wing nut-jobs’ come from? The people who live in the hills with guns, wear combat gear and think aliens/’commies’ are about to invade?)
I said earlier about Indiana staying GOP unless the Dems give the VP slot to a local. Everything else I would eagree with you (or in the case of VA and NC, stand corrected)
Everytime I see an article on here regarding Barack’s number two I immediately roll my eyes.
Political Betting should surely be about good betting, not wild guesses? Bill Clinton was the last Democratic president, and has an enormous ego. Is there any chance he would have turned down a chance to speak? Which VP nominee would have led to his refusal to speak?
257. I like it, but no…
258 Graeme. Keeping as many states in Toss Up category for as long as possible makes McCain play defence with more limited funds. We’ll start to get a shake out after the convention and the first debate …. and perhaps more states will turn purple !!
John Wyndham - ‘Random Quest’?
248. Jack is there any evidence that Smithson’s rule re Labour and polls also applies to Obama? There seems to be a sizeable discrepancy (10 points?) between phone and automated anonymous polling when asked about Obama.
Which pollsters would you most trust in giving an accurate picture of the current Presidential state of play?
Phillipe
your comments earlier about Dick Cheney have finally made me a fan. If he didn’t organise the Georgia conflict, he should have done. What are we paranoid lefties going to do without him or someone similar when Obama becomes President? Can’t you run for office somewhere?
255. Random from the Roger Zelazny Amber novels?
260,
Random, are you fond of the colour Amber?
265, Beaten to the question, but less elliptically
265, et al - the same Random that Corwin describes as a “homicidal little fink”? Interesting choice of nom de plume.
263 Ernesto. The variance in pollsters is vast. I recommend to you the following site where pollsters are rated by past performance and their polls weighted accordingly :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
Despite his military connections McCain is losing the fund raising competition among the US military at home and abroad :
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2008/08/troops-deployed-abroad-give-61.html