Why not hold Glenrothes on the US election day?
August 16th, 2008
- Is this the way to minimise another humiliating defeat?
The Guardian writer Martin Kettle is one of many commentators to say that the timing of the Glenrothes by-election would be a major factor in determining whether or not Brown lives to fight another day.
Since the death of John MacDougall, the Labour majority of 10,664 has been assessed and found to be unsafe in the face of the likely challenge of the SNP. It requires a smaller swing than Glasgow East and the SNP did well there in the Holyrood 2007 elections.
There are suggestion that the SNP could take this seat with a majority of up to 5,000 - this would be humiliating coming, as it does, in the constituency that neighbours the Prime Minister’s own.
There are specific rules around moving a writ of election, but substantially (though the Speaker is given some latitude under certain circumstances during the Recess) the choice lies with the Government. Writs must either be moved unopposed, or supported by a Parliamentary majority if opposed at all. The choice of when to hold this election therefore ultimately lies with the PM.
So what are the feasible dates? Martin Kettle:
“The rules that govern such matters are elastic but, broadly speaking, Labour can call the Glenrothes byelection any time between now and the middle of November.Once the election writ is moved, the campaign normally takes around three weeks. In practice, therefore, polling day in Glenrothes could currently be on any Thursday between September 11 and December 4.”
Kettle then goes on to explain why he believes that the election should be held at the earliest possible juncture (Thursday September 11th), apparently because Labour is still haunted by losing Brent East in 2003 and isn’t going to win this time so best not delay the inevitable. I think this is unbelievably wrong-headed.
For this is the final day of the TUC Conference. Not only will half the left-wing political activists from the unions be otherwise engaged and unable to support the campaign, but the other half will be talking about nothing but an about-to-be-lost by-election and whether it means the end of the PM’s time in office. As if that wasn’t excruciating enough, Brown would then have to face the Labour Party Conference in Manchester only eight days after seeing his neighbouring constituency overturn a five-figure majority.
There is no way that this by-election should be held before, during, or shortly after the Labour and TUC conferences. The SNP conference and school holidays make October a difficult month to schedule a by-election, even without the clocks changing on the 26th. Brown might want to avoid another by-election humiliation just before a recess (when MPs can plot away from the public eye, as they have done this summer), so late November might be too close to Christmas holidays.
- If I were the PM, there is only one date I would choose for the Glenrothes by-election: November 4th, 2008 - the day of the US Presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain.
The event would be completely starved of oxygen in the political media. It is after all the conferences, and not too close to Christmas. It will become a complete non-event, overshadowed to greater extent than any by-election since Paisley North and Paisley South (29th November 1990 - Thatcher had resigned, Major became PM, impending Gulf War, and the Channel Tunnel break-through all within 36 hours).
If the convention (and it is only convention) was kept of holding elections on a Thursday, then November 6th would suffice, as journalists will still be obsessed with explaining the consequences of the Presidential election. In fact, events that threaten to overshadow elections have been one of two reasons for not holding them on Thursdays (the other being Bank Holidays). The last by-election not to be held on a Thursday was in Hamilton (31st May, 1978) to avoid the start of the FIFA World Cup.
So I would recommend the first week of November as the PM’s best hope of ’surviving’ another defeat. It is telling that it has come to this. Gordon Brown must wish that this by-election wasn’t happening: unless he somehow pulls off a suprise win, the best he can hope for is that nobody notices that he lost.
Morus
UPDATE: Apparently, this article had a bit of an impact
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Thursday 6th November makes a lot of sense - not actually US election day so can’t be accused of burying the loss in the coverage, but effectively has buried it anyway.
I think GB will have bigger problems. This is now seen as a definite SNP gain, no expectations because of Glasgow East. Nobody will be surprised if Labour lose so it won’t have the same effect.
Holding it on the Tuesday itself would be seen as another Brown PR stunt - “a day to bury bad news” in the famous phrase of the Labour spinner on September 11 2001.
Going for the Thursday of that week might have the same effect and be better - that’s the traditional day and would leave Labour less open to the charge of news management.
Result! First post! LOL!
2 I agree. Smart thinking, Morus.
As Jo Moore said, in conjunction with another major event in the history of the United States of America: “It’s now a very good day to get out anything we want to bury.”
Gordon Brown’s career path will shortly be going the same way as Ms Moore’s.
Jo Moore and Stephen Byers reached the heady heights of No. 59 in the list of ‘100 Worst Britons’. Brown will surely effortlessly exceed their performance, as the man is clearly aiming for the No. 1 spot. After all, which other British Prime Minister has been a prime architect in the dismantling of the British Union itself? (Although Ted Heath also deserves much credit for the remarkable achievement.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jo_Moore
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Claim_of_Right_1988
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1380504/Christopher-Booker’s-Notebook.html
That last link doesn’t work. Here it is in shortform:
‘How Heath betrayed our fishermen’
Christopher Booker’s Notebook
http://tinyurl.com/5kbekg
Yes the timing of an election with your framework Morus is a smart idea! But we are dealing with Brown here!!! He surely will be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on timing at any rate!!!
SHould be an SNP gain - I wounder if it has the potential for a bigger swing: Glasgow East was formly a Rock solid Labour seat. This seat may well have a smaller proportion of hardcore Labour diehards. Interestingly because it is on the east coast and nearer to the ‘oil economy’ I wonder whether the SNP oil argument will be of greater traction.
I think you’re definitely thinking along the right lines, but like Mr Smithson and test, I think it has to be on a Thursday to avoid the charge of burying bad news. My preference would not be the Thursday after the US election but the Thursday before them. While the presumed defeat would get substantial coverage on the Friday and Saturday, after that point the story might well get lost in the newspapers’ discussions of the impending election. If the by-election is held after the US election, there is no reason to expect an end date to speculation about the consequences of the by-election.
By the way, I think Mr Kettle knew exactly what he was doing when he suggested that the by-election be held as soon as possible. He wants Gordon Brown out and he was probably trying to give him a bit of a nudge on his way.
7. Martin Day: He surely will be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory on timing at any rate!!!
Isn’t that one of the Rules? That given a decision of political significance, Brown will always choose the worst option?
(Awake ridiculously early for a Saturday as I shall be accompanying my mother to Lord’s for the one-day final today. Assuming the weather holds!)
9. Yes Brown is defective: He will probably end up writing a book about it (The by-election)!
8. I want shot of Brown - If we are entering a new cold war and a potential military clash we need a leader not the current baffoon. What really worries me about Brown is he may well have bottled signing the commands for Nuclear Subs. to attack Russia for a retalitry strike. My feeling is if i get cremated by the Russians in my own home they can have it back!
Of course, all of this assumes that none of the current plotting breaks cover. Given how close we seemed to get to open rebellion at the end of July, this cannot be taken for granted (though on balance I now expect that no uprising will take place).
6
Depressing article. Better off out, I think.
It somewhat undermines the credibility of a journalist when he appears not even to have checked the year of David Cameron’s election as Conservative party leader:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/08/16/do1602.xml
Mr O’Sullivan and his sub-editor should note that he was elected in 2005, not 2006 as he appears to think.
12. Yeah, but you can text for £1-50 to Europe now. Who cares about these people’s livelihoods? In a few hundred years we’ll have saved back those billions in mobile phone discounts.
i told you all to get on adlington…price tightened even more this morning
btw anything above evens is still value, shes extremely likeable, and she’s just won TWO GOLD MEDALS at the Olympics. theres no way she cant win IMO
14, does sum up the EU. We lose tons and gain ounces.
I’d still like to see it undergo massive reform to become the good institution it could be. Focusing on trade, with a minimum of political integration, no aspirations of statehood and respecting referenda results.
I’m frankly sick of unelected foreign bureaucrats with Napoleon complexes running around Europe telling people to vote again until they get the ‘right’ answer.
15, excellent swim, saw the replay this morning. And she’s only 19, so she’ll have a great chance to repeat the performance in 2012.
It’s not a good idea. It will look like a stunt, and stunts have cost him dear enough already.
Maybe the Thursday before or after would work, but definitely not US Election day.
“I’d still like to see it undergo massive reform to become the good institution it could be. Focusing on trade, with a minimum of political integration, no aspirations of statehood and respecting referenda results.”
Wouldn’t you then have to rename it, to say “The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) or something?
16 Bradley Wiggins? Chris Hoy? Ben Ainslie? agree Adlington has a good chance but we’ll know better by tomorrow afternoon.
20, you could, don’t think it’d be essential, or indeed that renaming it would be the biggest obstacle to such reform.
Sadly I think such an event is unlikely, but possible. If Cameron can get in and give us our referendum, and then gain allies with the leaders and peoples of other nations perhaps it could happen.
Definitely should not attempt to hold a by-election on any day but a Thursday. Not a break in law and has been done many times before but the break in precedent would be enough to make it a talking point per se and hence a vote loser for Brown.
Only just got up after a night of chasing big bales in the pitch black so missed yesterday’s topic on DC in Tblisi. For what it is worth, I think he is bound to go. No-one should be too high and mighty about it Sarko did it all the time in the death throes of the Chirac presidency, before he was even a contender.
I might be wrong but no-one seems to have mentioned the reason Milliband / Brown have done nothing, not even the usual pious platitudes. Because of Milliband’s bid for power a fortnight ago there is now an impasse between the two every bit as toxic as the Brown / Blair battles of yesteryear. This has paralysed any coherent actions from the Foreign Office and left the field wide open for Dave to represent the UK on any matter overseas.
Do not underestimate the damage this will do to the present government. Here we will analyse why there is no UK response, the public at large will not. But they will see Dave doing the PM and Foreign Secs job.
Dan Quayle was no Jack Kennedy and David Milliband is no Jack Straw.
OT BBC SPoTY — there are an awful lot of petrol-heads ready to vote if Lewis Hamilton becomes F1 champion.
Phelps is an absolute shoe-in for overseas personality as well and you can still get 1.42. Even Bolt running a WR today won’t be enough to overtake that.
Any other sport (which includes Swimming) is 1.51 for Brit. SP.
Yes, that would make a lot of sense.
Although surely the most important point is that we are talking about a seat where the Labour candidate starts on 52% of the vote, and we are already talking about when to hold it to minimise the impact - is there no fight left?
I wonder whether we’re confusing two groups here. If the by-election were to be held the Thursday either side of the US election, the general media would give it less coverage than usual and the public would pay less attention, but how much difference would it really make?
The people that really matter if Brown is to survive are the politicians and correspondents in and around Westminster. They will notice what happens in Glenrothes, and even if it doesn’t make headlines, they’ll understand the implications for the next election. The plotters won’t be stopped from plotting by the lack of a few headlines; it will take a good result (which in the current climate means a hold) to do that.
I’ve always been a bit sceptical about the Summer Plot theory as well. It is surely more likely that peoeple will plot when they are all together and can assess not only their own side’s strength but that of their opponents? That period starts with the party conferences (and probably the TUC conference in Labour’s case) and then continues into the parliamentary session. It is of course likely that plots can be hatched while MPs are away but certainly not the case that they can be finalised. The danger for Gordon is at least as great if the by-election is in November as if it’s in September (though that would overshadow the conference), as a November by-election defeat will provide another spark upon which a leadership challenge could potentially be ignited (though I don’t think it will be).
As an aside, I could just see Gordon going for the Tuesday. The odds are against it but playing with the rules and trying to fix things in advance is the kind of ploy he likes and was once good at.
24 perhaps its time that the BBC split it into male and female sports personalities?
24. There are a lot of women voters as well. That is likely to have a big impact.
25. Harrington? Two Majors, and if he adds a key role in a Ryder Cup win I expect him to feature highly, being from not far overseas…
24. Is there a junior SPOTY? Adlington is only 19.
28,29 — I agree Rebecca Adlington is the most likely winner: just warning she is not yet home and hosed.
Even if Glenrothes is lost, will it matter for Brown? Have the Russians done for Miliband who is missing-in-action?
20, 22. I think a gradual wind-down of the institution as it is would be preferable. That way we can avoid the ‘extremist’ tag that blights the eurosceptic cause. Clearly the EU is going to be an irrelevance when it comes to the big foreign policy questions, as well as following a line that is unacceptably pro-Russian (or pro whoever our enemy is) for this country. I think Cameron’s visit to Georgia also contains a hint of his different attitude to foreign relations from David ‘ask the French’ Miliband. A piece by piece clawback of powers would develop into the EFTA which this country actually voted for.
31. The age limit for Young Personality is 17, ATW.
The Baillieston ward by-election (Glasgow City Council) to replace former councillor John Mason, now the new SNP MP for Glasgow East, is to be held on 18 September.
http://www.eveningtimes.co.uk/news/display.var.2426089.0.date_set_to_elect_new_councillor.php
Baillieston ward result May 2007 (Single Transferable Vote - 4-member ward)
1st preference votes
1. SNP (John Mason) 30.8% elected
2. Lab 25.9% elected
3. Lab 12.9% elected
4. Lab 7.1%
5. Con 6.5%
6. Sol 4.5%
7. LD 3.8%
8. SNP 2.4% elected
9. SSP 2.2%
10. SUP 2.1%
11. Grn 1.7%
http://www.alba.org.uk/localby/baillieston.html
The thing is, it would be relatively easy for journalists to spin the defeat in such a way as to report it with the US election. An Obama win and a defeat for Labour could be presented as an ‘all change’ narrative, whereas a McCain win could be spun as an endorsement of a more virile attitude to foreign policy which Brown has shown no tendency towards. Any benefit would be minimal.
36.
Another way of looking at that result is:
1. Lab 45.9%
2. SNP 33.2%
3. Con 6.5%
4. Sol 4.5%
5. LD 3.8%
6. SSP 2.2%
7. SUP 2.1%
8. Grn 1.7%
ie. the SNP need a 6.4% swing from Labour to win the ward by-election.
“The funeral of MP John MacDougall, whose death has presented Labour with a difficult by-election, is to be held on Monday”
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5iB-BtN1sCUiNx45ZGDnfjayS-w_g
test
STuart, is there an incumbent SNP candidate in Glenrothes as there is a Tory? If not then could Annabel Ewing feature as a hot favourite for the nominee. After all she stood last time in nearby Ochil and South Perthshire.
Given that on the 2007 result this is effectively the SNP defending the seat at the byelection, I would have thought the young turks of the SNP will be stampeding to get the nomination.
Good morning Easterross!
According to Nicholas Watt and Severin Carrell of the Guardian: “It is expected the SNP will field the leader of the council’s ruling SNP-Lib Dem coalition, Peter Grant.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/14/gordonbrown.snp
I have no inside track on this, so those journalists may well be on the right track, although I would not be surprised if at least one other big SNP ‘name’ went forward to the selection meeting, à la Andrew Wilson, Duncan Hamilton (both ‘young turks’) or Ms Ewing.
I think Brown’s problem is with the PLP, not the Public (The Public have already turned their back and are walking away at a brisk pace). NuLabour would not be convinced by any stunts except those which would bring them victory.
This is interesting; I should imagine home owners are more likely to vote than other groups of non-home voters. Some of these areas are key marginals such as Stafford, Buxton (Used to be in High Peak IIRC), Norwich (Obviously this is what Ian Gibson was shouted down in a supermarket for
), Winchester, Newbury etc.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1045209/Middle-class-homes-crisis-39-000-facing-repossession-spectre-Nineties-returns.html
44. Sorry what i should have said was these people getting their homes repossessed will be the tip of the ice berg in terms of people in financial trouble - there will be some very angry people out there waiting to knock Labour out!
I am not sure what Gove is upto but he is starting to irrate to me big time:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1045652/We-want-young-people-university-says-Tory.html
Cameron should sack him at the next re-shuffle, he keeps saying dumb things; what the hell as this bloke being doing recently - he seems to have completly lost the plot.
Morning all. Just checking in before I spend the day at a West Wales wedding. Agree that the Tuesday would be a bit craven, and maybe a little obvious, but I think he could get away with the Thursday.
PLP are independent of the public and the media, but if there is no clamouring from the public and the media for Brown to go, the PLP never seem that keen on removing him. They react to the calls, they don’t seem to initiate them.
Part of me wonders if being unbelievably craven and poltical might just be a good thing - it would remind the PLP that Brown used tio be a decent schemer, and pulling off a stunt successfully might give him a little boost of confidence.
Who knows? Either way, Thursday 6th is probably the best date he could choose - it’s certainly no worse than any other day.
Have a good weekend all.
46, mentioned yesterday. I agree that Gove should learn the art of masterly inactivity.
Beautiful sunny 80F here in Bangkok. And I had a lunch of soft shell crab salad with garlic and chili, along with fresh pineapple juice, for £4.
That is my sole contribution for the moment. A gloat.
The only other alternative is that I start ranting about Europe…. And I thought I’d spare you that.
28. perhaps its time that the BBC split [SPOTY] into male and female sports personalities?
Perhaps they should split it into 14-year-olds and non-14-year-olds?
This is pretty sickening. What a bunch of scum.
‘Theft of war plaques for scrap’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7563263.stm
31, Yes there is a Young SPOTY - in December 2007 it was Tom Daley.
46- what a fool Gove is- wanting Britain to be more educated, seeing the virtues of higher education, viewing education as the means of progression.
Sorry you probably prefer Redwood on this one- leave higher education to the elite who have to pay through the nose to keeps the chavs out who all have to train to be plumbers.
What’s all this treasonable whingeing from disgruntled republicans? George VII will be a fine and experienced King, William V will be popular and charming, and (best of all) Henry IX will be exactly the sort of King (with lots of guts and rampant hunkiness) that SeanT will approve of to lead us to victory in a proper WAR.
208. Regnal name is unrelated to birth name. Queen Victoria was Alexandrina Victoria before ascending the throne. Edward VII was Albert Edward, and George VI was Albert Frederick Arthur George
On the contrary, regnal names are always given names. Prince Charles’s name is Charles Philip Arthur George, just as George VI was Albert Frederick Arthur George.
210. i never understood what was wrong with the old form, Battenberg-Saxe-Coburg-Gotha
That’s the sort of name that would be chosen by the Scottish Boundaries Commission.
254. Russia is not a superpower. It is a dangerous power, as is North Korea and Iran - but it is not a superpower.
North Korea is not dangerous. “Dangerous” means tending to threaten others. The DPRK is on the receiving end of threats, sanctions, blockades and sabre-rattling by the USA, not vice versa.
48: oh, I don’t know, I think Michael Gove is an interesting chap. Here’s some more:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/16/conservatives.davidcameron
51. It is terrible i agree, In Huddersfield a church had it’s spire damaged by theives trying to steal a lightning conductor - they attached the conductor wire to a vehicle but the the spire collapsed. Shame it did not pin the buggers down! I am suspicious that this type of theft is being done by tourists (Or people who worked here going back to their fatherland from the eastern european nations.
54- I think Mike should place a ban on royal star watching. Worst kind of celebrity obsessed culture- after all these people’s only talent is to be born within a rather odd family. Nothing to do with betting.
I think the celebrity obsessed star watches may find “Hello” a much better read. And there are lots of lovely photos to boot.
55. Your not expecting him to cross the floor? He seems more inclined toward Labour thinking! Maybe the Tories can do a swap you have Gove and the Tories can have anyone except Quentin Davies!
Bet he is looking forward to canvassing another Scottish seat: What you have to do for a peerage these days……
57, er, what? Royals may be seen by some as celebrities now, but they’ve always been famous.
The Queen has done a marvellous job as head of state, Prince Andrew participated in the Falklands and Prince Harry in Iraq. The Duke of Edinburgh has set up his famous awards scheme and Charles created the Prince’s Trust.
They’re not perfect, but they’re far from talentless as the envious republican class warriors may try to make out.
59. They also compted in it’s a Royal Knockout!
58: to be fair, Gove doesn’t actually say most Tories are unreformed - that’s the Guardian’s spin on it. He says that the public think they’re unreformed. It’s an illustration of the problem of saying anything except the party line in our political culture - no matter how careful you are, anything which concedes anything remotely critical risks being taken out of context and used against you for years. Teresa May’s famous remarks had a similar fate - she didn’t say “We are the nasty party” but “we are seen as the nasty party”, which was, at the time, objectively true.
Excellent article about Georgia from the Washington Post which we can but hope gives the gung-ho fraternity a chance to stop and think.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/14/AR2008081401360.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008081401253&s_pos=
It links in Neocon Kagan, shows us where the Hitler/Putin analogy is emerging from.
Key passage -
“When it comes to apportioning blame for the latest flare-up in the Caucasus, there’s plenty to go around. The Russians were clearly itching for a fight, but the behavior of Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili has been erratic and provocative. The United States may have stoked the conflict by encouraging Saakashvili to believe that he enjoyed American protection, when the West’s ability to impose its will in this part of the world is actually quite limited. ”
“Saakashvili’s image in the West, and particularly in the United States, is that of the great “democrat,” the leader of the “Rose Revolution” who spearheaded a popular uprising against former American favorite Eduard Shevardnadze in November 2003. It is true that he has won two reasonably free elections, but he has also displayed some autocratic tendencies; he sent riot police to crush an opposition protest in Tbilisi last November and shuttered an opposition television station.”
“The bottom line is that the United States is overextended militarily, diplomatically and economically. Even hawks such as Vice President Cheney, who have been vociferously denouncing Putin’s actions in Georgia, have no stomach for a military conflict with Moscow. The United States is bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and needs Russian support in the coming trial of strength with Iran over its nuclear ambitions.
Instead of speaking softly and wielding a big stick, as Teddy Roosevelt recommended, the American policeman has been loudly lecturing the rest of the world while waving an increasingly unimpressive baton. The events of the past few days serve as a reminder that our ideological ambitions have greatly exceeded our military reach, particularly in areas such as the Caucasus, which is of only peripheral importance to the United States but of vital interest to Russia. ”
Thought rather than reactionary emotionalism is what is needed, the latter got us in the mess that ensued in Iraq. Amazingly, heads are cooler in the White House than in the fevered rants coming from McCain, I never thought that anyone could be worse than Bush on foreign policy but he’s proving it.
57. “A rather odd family”? It’s a spectacular and praiseworthy achievement that Her Majesty is the grandmother of three of the most gorgeous men in the world. Who else in history has ever achieved such a thing? And yes I do have a large pile of Hello magazines with lots of their pictures in.
If you prefer, we could start betting on whether QE2 will outlive Charles, or whether W5 will be succeeded by H9, or whether there will be a military coup led by Hunky Harry in a time national emergency when the UK gets encircled by repbulican regimes…
Those bloody rowers - how many near heart attacks are caused by their late surge & close victories, still they got the gold - Fantastic!
Sorry, should have pointed out that the author of the article is Michael Dobbs.
64 - Cycling going amazingly well too, two Brits in the run off for Women’s individual pursuit gold and Wiggins and Hoy are looking good for gold later this morning!
65 - (not *that* Michael Dobbs)
Isn’t it a bit ridiculous that we have a system where in the case of Crewe and Nantwich the government can hold a by election within a month and in this instance we might have to wait until december? Couldn’t they make the rules more reasonable and difficuly for the government to manipulate?
61. Yes very true!
Teresa May: I am not her biggest fan! I always remember burning a letter she sent to me; I was amused when her signature had a blue flame!
53
One of our local plumbers is the son of a senior RN officer retd.
Woohoo! Great Britian goes ahead of Russia in the Olympic Medals Table! Superpower status here we come!
71 - Michael Phelps is doing nearly as well as the rest of the USA combined, when will he start his presidency bid?
If it’s Dame Rebecca Adlington surely it should be Sir Bradley Wiggins (although it makes him sound like he’s a minor character in a restoration comedy).
62
One of the reasons why the US is constrained in the actions it can take against Russia is obvious.
Russia’s military invasion of Georgia is abating but its corporate invasion of the outside world marches on. Novolipetsk Steel this week bought US steel pipemaker John Maneely for $3.5bn. That was just the latest in a wave of acquisitions by energy and metals groups, telecoms companies and banks that saw Russian outward investment mushroom 44 per cent to nearly $75bn in 2007.
How much of US business does Georgia own?
66 Good thing their parents bought those BMX bikes all those years ago - great biographies for cycling guys.
59- sorry until I see a Royal do something talented like win the 100m gold, or play for Utd, or invent something or other will they have the right to say they are an especially talented family. Even win at Mastermind would be good, or open a Michelin starred restaurant. Writing a reasonably good novel, drawing a good picture- plenty of other areas where they could show some talent.
And sorry riding horses does not count
and joining the army, and hosting functions, and setting up charities does not quite cut the mustard as doing anything out of the ordinary.
Please tell me someone one thing that quite makes any of them especially talented
71. Yes, I just noticed that! Hooray! And we only have to win eighteen more golds, and we’re top! As long as no one else wins any!
In all seriousness, this is a good performance by Team GB. So far. Out of curiosity, I wonder how many of these medals have been won by England, Scotland, Ulster and Wales, respectively?
My guess is that, ahem, the majority would have been won by Englishmen and women. And that if the Scots were competing alone, they’d be down there in the medals table with Angola and maybe the Seychelles. Something for Scottish separatists to think about..
Also, its curious how Italy always do well in the Olympics medal table. Don’t get me wrong, I find Italians generally very charming, even when they are being constantly rude. But when you go to Italy they look like the laziest bunch of smoothies, who wouldn’t break a sweat if you paid them, and these days the kids are running to fat (believe me, I’ve just spent ten days in Sicily - FAT CITY). But they do damn well in the Olympics.
As I say, v curious.
71- another achievement of NuLab is it’s commitment to sport. 1996- Atlanta. Remember that. 1 paltry gold. 18 years of Tory Govt and we plummeted below Belgium in the medals table.
62
Complete garbage.
There is nothing provocative about sending in troops to a part of your own country - as legally recognised by the international community - to stop the seperatists there shelling the neighbouring towns.
The Russians have been shown to be outright liars over this and it is only useful fools like yourself who continue to pretend that they are anything other than invaders seeking to dominate another independent country because they don’t like the fact it won’t side with them against the west.
I suppose in your blind hatred of all things American you will find some way to explain away the Russian threats to Poland as well.
76
I did like the comment this morning that if Michael Phelps were a country he would have been 4th in the medals table.
75 — the Royal Family is based on the hereditary principle, not talent. You may as well complain that minor villains don’t “deserve” to win the lottery.
And riding horses does count.
51 “This is pretty sickening. What a bunch of scum.
‘Theft of war plaques for scrap’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/7563263.stm
One of the results of Labour’s immigation policy is people in Britain who don’t share our values.
Labour says it makes our culture more rich. I say they are liars.
Looking at affairs in Beijing, it is obvious how right Norman Tebbit was when he said “Get on your Bike!” Obviously Gove’s think-tank must be equally correct when they implore Northerners to leave their home cities even more destitute and get on down to London to push the property prices up even higher. (Remember those who say Gove has lost the plot that to lose it, you are meant to have had some idea of where it was in the first place!)
Meanwhile, David Cameron escapes from his visit to civil-war-torn Tories in the North West, (which has driven a sworn Thatcherite top Tory to join New Labour) to head for the peace and quiet of Georgia, where he will no doubt attempt to excercise his ‘influence’ on fellow-conservative Vladimir Putin. While Mr Green Chameleon is flying to the Caucusses, will his briefcases of top secret documents be pedalled across the Balkans by a flunky? Which Tory bikes will be volunteered for this noble task?
75. Tyson as a leftie you hate a successful Britain and our monarchy. It is why Britain has been damaged so much under Labour.
The underlying principle of a monarchy is that there are no arguments about who is head of state. As the day to day running of the country is delegated to politicians, you dont need to worry about qualifications. It is a very good system and leads to the most stable democracies in the world.
It is ironic, lefties introduce inherited power for their offspring as soon as they gain it.
76 Cycling has a good sprinkling of Scots, they would do pretty well.
81 — is nicking metal for scrap down all to foreign villains then?
78 Many say Georgia blundered into a trap, after all, an entire Russian Army was waiting across the border, waiting to invade. An Army is not something you can hide.
Or perhaps Russia blundered into a trap.
when you are in new labour’s position does it really matter when you hold the by-election? rather like the German Army at Stalingrad you are shagged whatever you do!
84. But they are funded by UK money - I’ve no doubt the success of this Team GB is largely to do with funding (not to take anything away from the athletes - they’re doing a grand job).
Would this money be available to a Scottish team? They’d have to feed them oats and tatties, and make them cycle round Oban in the rain.
Only joking. Britain is better united: four proud nations, one flag, one queen, one favourite biscuit, the chocolate Hobnob. Rule Britannia!
Decisions have already been made on Georgia.
Contrary to some opinion pieces in the UK that I’ve seen the Americans have handled this carefully, there has been no hawkish rhetoric. They had to step up the talk or else the Russians were going to dispatch the Georgian government by force, eliminate the Georgian military capbility to do anything much above carrying rifles and establish a very large presence and permament presence within what is Georgia’s legal borders. The Us move on aid flights was designed to help prevent that because it would help keep air and sea corridors open.
As it is the Georgian president will go in due course (he’ll be left hanging as new of his failures come out) and there will be a buffer zone established between undisputed Georgian territory and South Ossetia.
There is likely to be an international observer group put in place.
The reality is that the violent rhetoric has come from the Russians not the US who have essentially made strong warnings of the long term diplomatic impacts(sure lets bomb Poland, no worries).
Ultimately though the Russians will lose out. Former Soviet satelites will not give a fiddlers for old Europe soft soaping and will work a hell of a lot more closely to act as a bulwark against the Russians.
83
Our Monarchy? The hereditary principle was forced upon us British,
by the nasty Normans. Long live Hereward the Wake, Edgar the Aetheling and Eadric the Wild and all the brave men and women of the, ‘Silvatici’ who fought to the last against those cruel invaders.
‘British’ that lot ‘Saxe Coburg Gotha’ fine old British name that! They changed too ‘Windsor’ ‘cos their cousin in Germany was bombing us with an aircraft called the Gotha.
p.s.
If they’d built ‘Windsor Castle’ the other side of the river, they’d be called ‘Slough’
78 -
Firstly you are arguing with a writer who knows more and has seen more than you have, however, you don’t know how to quit when you are behind so….
Maybe you should listen to the writer who has been there, unlike the armchair generals that pontificate wildly here about what to do without either experience or understanding or with a cavalier attitude to their own forces (and is it any wonder that McCain is doing so badly fund raising from US troops).
When was the last time you were in Georgia? When was the last time you faced a well armed enemy? When did you last stop to think more than one or two steps ahead in matters like this?
You are indeed a useless fool, unthinking and reactionary.
Don’t start it, there are far too many on here who imagine that they won’t get a response if they attack first because anyone to the left of them is just wet and weak and a bit of a ‘girl’. Not with me, you should know that by now.
And get your damn head out of the sand, my posts about America reflect how much I know, love and understand the nation, it’s people with views like yours that I am anti. How dare you suggest that - you know nothing about me, don’t you dare to try and use those thuggish tactics on me, not unless you want me to tie you up in an argument for the rest of the day and beyond.
With us or against us? that’s all you know.
90 Coldstone, you show gaps in your knowledge. Monarchy (and local derivations) wasnt invented in 1066.
Your hatred of foreigners and immigrants is noted.
The transition from International Socialist to National Socialist is a short step.
89 - The actual administration has been pretty good you are right, this is why Georgia is trying to co-opt people who are not in power (McCain and Cameron). BUsh has been burned once too often, there’s nothing like being hit by experience.
91 - Did you actually, in fact, think that those were my words? Your diatribe was against what I quoted from the WaPo, not my little addition at the end.
Quite, quite unnecessary if so.
92
Depends what you mean, Wessex by 1066 was already the dominant force, so Harold was to all intents and purposes King of England.
Book on the subject, ‘The English Resistance’ by Peter Rex.
Always remember the response of the, ‘Duke of Windsor (E8) when told by the British Embassador to leave Paris as the Germans were coming, ‘Why should I care who wins this war I’m more than two thirds German anyway’
As for Prince Edward (Royal Marines failed) being called the Earl of Wessex, yuk!!
72. When he’s 35, I presume
79. I did like the comment this morning that if Michael Phelps were a country he would have been 4th in the medals table.
And in the population-adjusted medal table, he’s be in 1st place with 0.14 people per gold medal, compared with 2nd place which is Georgia with 2,200,000 people per gold medal.
V-P Market
Remember that link to a post by Jim Geraghty in the campaign-spot @ NRO about looking at the OBAMA PLANE to guess who’s gonna be VP?
Now, 538.com has a picture, apparently, of that very plane — witn OBAMA-VENEMAN written on it in blue caps-lock characters.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/friday-afternoon-leftovers.html#comments
Who the F is Veneman?
95 yeah, whatever you say irrelevent leftie…
81.
“people in Britain who don’t share our values.”
You can always get on a cheap flight out of here, Percy, courtesty of Stavros or that nice Mr Ryan. They do ‘one ways’ for people like you.
98 - Never heard of photoshop?
75. sorry until I see a Royal do something talented like win the 100m gold, or play for Utd, or invent something or other will they have the right to say they are an especially talented family.
……
Please tell me someone one thing that quite makes any of them especially talented
Having three members of one family in the WAAAAGH!!! League Table of the most gorgeous men in the world is a talent which has given me a very great deal of pleasure for many years. (Full statistics are available on the WAAAAGH page of my website http://www.croydonloony.co.uk ).
101 - You’re probably right.
41 - under the SNP rules the previous candidture selection is null and void if a by-election is called and a new selection contest is arranged. The personal selected is Cllr Peter Grant who is now the leader of the Administration on Fife Council.
he came top of 1st pref votes in his ward
http://www.fife.gov.uk/topics/index.cfm?fuseaction=election.ward&ward=14&subjectid=75FF1F89-38B3-4136-B0449D1529C55B51
104 - that is the candidate selected in 2007 was Cllr Grant
98. A certain long standing pb.com poster did suggest a punt on said Veneman a few weeks back.
76. Out of curiosity, I wonder how many of these medals have been won by England, Scotland, Ulster and Wales, respectively?
That moist bint who won the first gold in the cycling road race is Welsh.
92.
Percy, you are the ignorant one (what, again?).
He never said that 1066 was when Monarchy was invented. It was, however, when the inevitable heredity principle (using foreigners of one sort or another - an early form of Wal-mart) was enforced here. Prior to that, the sensible Saxons had a kind of ‘opt-in’ system for hereditary kings, with the lords of the land having the option to choose their kings (and Jarls) from a number of eligeble leaders, based upon the factors they thought most sensible.
74- Ted- not impressed with the elitist Beeb Olympic coverage this morning.
Rowing- a sport that is practiced seriously by about 8 countries, and a small clique of about 1000 in this country overshadows cycling where we have to watch taped coverage.
97 post of the week imo (JohnLoony’s population-adjusted medal table).
110. The idea of a population-adjusted medal table was mentioned the other day in the Daily Telegraph, so they should share the glory with my brilliance.
109 - Probably because most of the cycling golds are now and they were earlier in the rowing.
Just for Seant two Scots with medal chances in the Keirin now Hoy and Edgar.
Apparently we stand a good chance in the Madison but are off the pace in the Mashed Potato and the Bump.
(will anyone even get that reference…?)
111. There should also be a poverty-adjusted medal table. i.e. which country is doing best in terms of GDP - with the lowest GDP favoured over the highest GDP, and the lowest GDP per head favoured likewise.
Put it another way, it would be interesting to see which countries are doing well despite being dirt poor.
113 Nice idea, SeanT, but how do you deal with, say, the Togo medallist who lives in France?
112. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novelty_and_fad_dances
but I don’t get the Olympic connection
New thread - What’s the truth behind this picture?
109 red button - available to everyone with £20 to spare on a freeview box and the everyone full stop at the next olympics with a TV as the analogue switch off will be done with.
So perfecty reasonable focus as it goes - British in finals on the flagship, Britons in heats on the red button coverage with recorded coverage on the flagship afterwards - sensible approach.
115 - The Madison is a cycle race (rather fun too, it’s pretty chaotic).
83- percy percy- it seems another reactionary poster has emerged on this site to join the many others.
119 - You may not believe this tyson but I’ve been one of very few people fighting the hordes back over the last few weeks.
98 ann veneman- big betting news.
121 - Test, you do make me laugh - check the new thread and associated comments…
Is this site happy with JohnLoony’s ‘moist bint’ language? It smacks of coming from a droopy cocksure individual as well as being offensively sexist.
358 from last thred
Jungle Primary - no one in WA State ever used this term to describe either the old blanket primary (top Dem and top Rep advanced to general) or the new Top Two primary.
Clearly calling either of these methods a “jungle” primary is shorthand for morons on the eastern seaboard who believe that the way they’ve fecked up their own states is somekind of model for the nation.
Reason why WA politicos, press, pundits care about what happens in the WA primary this year, is because as with the old blanket system, all candidates for the same office run head-to-head. IF you are too far behind in the primary vote, the fact that you are going to advance to the general may prove an empty victory. Because the smart money will write off your chances. And when I say “smart money” do NOT mean bettors and bookies; I’m talking about campaign contributions.
Right now Dino Rossi and his people fear the possibility that low turnout may depress Dino’s primary vote and thus allow Christine Gregoire beat him by 5% or more in the primary. Which would be a serious blow to this chances in November.
Of course the Beltway Bandits and other so-called experts west of the Contintential Divide never understood the blanket primary in WA. So why should they bother to try to understand the practical implications of the new WA top two primary? Better just to keep repeating “jungle primary jungle primary jungle primary” ad infinitum . . .