Is today going to be VEEP-day?
August 18th, 2008
At least it will end the betting misery
If ever there’s been a market that’s alerted me to the fact that I might have a problem with betting on politics it has been on Barack Obama’s choice of running mate. As I noted here in June - betting on this is a “mug’s game” because it’s the choice of just one man and we can only speculate on what his criteria will be.
Normally I like to think that I’m a completely rational gambler, examining the evidence and only placing bets where the return is greater than my assessment of the likelihood of something happening. Yet on the Obama running mate market I’ve placed one silly bet after another and I fear that I’m going to end up a loser.
I’ve had a view for a long time that Obama has to choose a woman yet the latest from the US commentators is that it is likely to be a white male. How do they know?
Betting has not been helped by the rock-solid security from Camp Obama and there’ve been no leaks - only a vast amount of speculation over every little piece of information to emerge as we’ve seen over the past week with details of the Denver convention programme.
The form of the announcement, when it comes and hopefully that will be within the next 36 hours, only adds to the mystery. Hundreds of thousands or maybe even millions who have registered their mobile number with the campaign web-site are going to get the news first by text message.
So looking over my books I make a reasonable net profit if its Sebelius, Clinton, Veneman or Wes Clark. Anybody else and I’m a loser and for more than I would like to admit.
Moderation note I am away for the next 24 hours and will not be monitoring the site or the moderation box as often as I normally do. Automated moderation is on which means that only those who have posted here before with the same name and email address will be able to publish instantly.
There are likely to be many days like this over the next two and a half weeks so please be patent.
Mike Smithson
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It won’t be Wes Clark, sorry Mike. Obama told him to stay away from the Convention.
And it won’t be Clinton, unless he wants to be sure he’ll lose - imagine the nastiness of the Republicans attack adverts on the Clinton White House (him and her) if she’s on the ticket
More Obama Drama!
3, I’d prefer Bananarama drama, to be honest:p
Mike, it doesn’t have to be a woman! There are two reasons for this: 1) the Hillary supporters have to come around to Obama in the end because he is the only alternative to McCain, whom they will come to hate by the end of Obama’s stretch run advertising blitz if they don’t hate him already and 2) American voters aren’t as attentive to the political process as you may think they are; Hillary will be ancient news by election day and nobody will be talking about her. If you accept these propositions, then why would Obama have to choose a woman?
Also, here’s an interesting article from the Washington Post about the Saddleback Forum, which constituted the first meeting of McCain and Obama in this campaign.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/small_hopes_and_large_upsets.html
The event should give some of Obama’s more dedicated supporters pause about the suitability of their candidate for a U.S. presidential election. I still maintain that Obama will win because of the overwhelming advantages he will enjoy, but McCain will not go down without a fight and Obama will not run away with this race. I believe he will win by a solid margin, but not a landslide.
If Barack Obama were to get involved in a confrontation with Matthew Paris, it could be headlined “Obama llama farmer drama”.
from previous thread!
286
Peter Hitchens was educated at The Leys School, the Oxford College of Further Education, and the University of York. He married Eve Ross in 1983; they have three children. Although raised as an Anglican, Hitchens learned soon after his marriage that his mother, who had committed suicide when he was in his twenties, was of partly Jewish ancestry[1]. Hitchens is a confirmed and communicant member of the Church of England.
7, he still isn’t as odd as the Archbishop of Canterbury.
2. Presumably an attack advert along these lines.
“Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly?
Because her father is Janet Reno.”
Meanwhile, it is good to hear that God continues to bless America, at least according to Nancy Pelosi:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_I_will_win.html
And you can guess who personifies that blessing, in her opinion!
From last thread:
First, as I do almost everyday since 2-3 weeks, I posted this:
OBAMA/McCAIN — WIN PERCENTAGE
INTRADE (last trade): 60.9 / 36.1 %
BETFAIR (last trade): 65.79 / 32.26 %
538.com (projection): 56.9 / 43.1 %
Then, none other that Peter the Punter shockingly asks:
206 Philippe - Can you explain your figures? You are losing me.
Which market does the Betfair 65.79 come from?
What in the love of God don’t ye understand, ye Punter?
“Win percentage” is the chances that Obama or McCain have to win the Us.Presidential Elections, mista! — according the 2 predictions markets and 538.com
So, of course — of course!!! — the number writtent next to BETFAIR (last trade) come from the betfair market titled thus : “2008 Presidential Election - Next President” — available here:
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=20739353&ex=1&origin=MRL
WTF?
65.79% is of course the last price matched on that very market!!!
In %, 1.52 translates as 65.789474…
9- Sean, I met and spoke with Janet Reno once a few years ago, and it was quite an experience; I am 6′4″, and yet she was looking down at me from whatever her height happens to be! This is an almost unprecedented experience for me when standing next to and talking to a woman, particularly a woman of her age.
Mike,
The Veep business will not affect the outcome of the election, it never does. Betting on it, you are right about this, is a mug’s game.
Having said that, I am much more interested in McCain’s choice as this is likely to tell us a lot about the future direction of the GOP. If McCain choses a figure acceptable to the evangelicals then he will lose a lot of the women’s vote; if he doesn’t, and choses a moderate then the Republican party will fall apart at the seams.
Their coalition has become more fragile over time and is likely fracture, possibly disintegrate rapidly. In our time we need three party politics in the states and three ideologically different parties. Indeed that would be useful in the UK too.
Hope this posting hasn’t annoyed a single precious soul.
Malcolm
Betting on this market was easy if you didn’t beleive the hype around a so-called ‘dream ticket’ of Clinton/Obama - it was never ever going to happen and therefore laying Clinton as Veep was always going to guarantee you a return.
9. lol. Is that your gag, or one you found? Very good anyway! Manages to insult Chelsea, Bill, Hillary and Janet Reno, all at once, and simultaneously insinuate that Hillz is a “tuppence”.
Though of course we all know she’s really a juicer.
12 Reno is 6′1″, unless she was in 4″ heels there was probably a step or a hover pack involved somewhere. In either case, time to buy yourself some Cubans
16- I don’t believe for a moment that she’s just 6′1″. I wasn’t looking at her shoes, but her eyes were definitely above mine.
Off Topic.
If Michael Phelps was, as suggested, an independent country, not a state of the USA. Team GB would have as many Gold Medals as the US. One off going 2nd in the table. Quite a performance.
I note that the Chinese are now very close to America in terms of total medals won, as well as completely outranking them in terms of golds.
Will the US media finally put America second, if they are beaten on both counts?
I secondly note that modern female athletes have a fashion for disturbingly dimunutive shorts.
13- If the Republican Party fragments into two separate viable parties, the Democrats will be running this country for about as long as the PRI ran Mexico.
@313/prev.:
Is this all to do with your one-man PBC vendetta against anything John McCain says and does?
Which statements by McCain would you characterise as ‘rampaging around like a testosterone-filled tw*t’?
19- Disturbing?
(From Previous Thread)
314- “The BBC is the home broadcaster for these Northern Ireland athletes (and I’m sure they and their families all pay their licence fees)”
I’m sure they DONT pay their license fees. Payment of the License fee in N.Ireland is woeful.
And also, since they are representing Ireland, they clearly dont feel they are British so why should a British TV Channel report on them? The local Ulster news can report on them.
17 Internet says she is 6′1″, 6′1 1/2″ or 6′2″.
15 - I don’t think she ever passed her electricia’s certificate…
5 - Stars and Stripes -
The two main stories coming out of this are the suggestion that McCain was able to listen to all the questions beforehand, unlike Obama and, more worryingly, that his ‘cross in the sand’ story is actually untrue and plagiarised from one of his favourite writers Solzhenitsyn.
Sometimes it doesn’t matter what is said, it’s the blowback that counts, I expect this to be the case for all the debates.
11 - Does the fact that 65.79 on betfair and 36.1 on intrade totalling over 100 mean that an immediate profit can be made.
15. It’s attributed to John McCain at a Republican fundraiser in 1998.
26- Two main stories, or two main crackpot theories from the far-left blogosphere? For your own good, don’t spend too much time stewing in the cozy left-wing juice pot or you won’t have a clue what’s really going on in this race. Would you rather be happy or right? If you’d rather be right, start widening the range of your fact sources.
20. Which is precisely why it won’t fragment.
http://americaintheworld.typepad.com/
Does anyone else find this pathetic? Or is it just me?
Tim Montgomerie is no more the arbiter of Britain’s relationship with America than he is about what is and what is not Conservative. He also seems to forget that Obama and the Democrats are also American.
@22:
Female shotputters.
No need to say more.
21 Not McCain, just some people on here, McCain is the more diplomatic version.
I’ve been watching this very carefully and McCain has a veneer which most people see but, which when you look at him and his ideas, you find is covering something a lot darker. His belligerence and presumptuousness have been a defining moment in the campaign, with probable short term benefit from the base but giving long term ammunition to his opponent.
26/5
The DailyKos and other US left-wing-blogs full of internationalist-sharks are apparenlty panicking — realising that Mac has much more chances of winning this that our petulant Stars & Stripes seems to think:
– they are echoing the paranoid fantasy according to which John McCain would have stolen the moving cross-in-the-sand story from a Solzhenitsyn novel;
– they are virtually accusing Mac of cheating @ a TV show :
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/d-s-hube/2008/08/17/nbcs-andrea-mitchell-floats-idea-mccain-cheated
Isn’t signs that they are panicking?
31
Am4erican Muscle!
30- I dont understand why people who love America but who arent Americans dont go move to America.
@33:
Panicking? Maybe. They’re lefties, after all, and the Democrats do have a proud heritage of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
That said, I see no evidence or even sound reasoning to suggest that Mac is on the verge of some kind of breakthrough.
@30:
I find Montgomerie’s presumptiousness irritating, as a Tory. I can’t wait to see him do the same for an entire nation.
35 - Just because you admire and respect one country doesn’t mean that you have disdain for all the others or hold them in less regard.
Meanwhile PoliticsHome’s expert panel says ‘Russia’s reputation is in freefall’.
http://www.politicshome.com/#2341
Crumbs. I wonder who’ll break the news to Putin.
27 OK, Philippe, no need to shout! I understand perfectly now and it is as I thought. The Betfair price is well out of line with the other two and suggests we should be selling Obama or buying McCain on the Next President market.
Thanks for giving us these numbers from time to time. They do help with the betting calls.
Btw, I think it was the presentation that threw me, but there’s no harm in asking when you’re not sure you understand something.
40. Sorry. I eat way too spicy since a while….
29 - I read very widely on this, I don’t know why you are suggesting otherwise, only if you believe that nobody would *dare* to go against the line from certain commentators. The idea that McCain gave short simple answers and so was most effective is the main thrust that I can see but it doesn’t take a genius to analyse how that can be a drawback for McCain in future debates that aren’t as cosy.
I don’t think the former story is at all important anyway and is just annoying but the Solzhenitsyn story is quite likely to go viral and there appears to be substantial evidence to suggest it is true.
People see the same thing and disagree because they disagree politically, I wouldn’t dare to suggest that it was because someone was only looking at one side the way you claim of me. I look at both and then make a decision, that’s why I tend to Cameron here and not the left, such simplistic views of left and right as you suggest don’t apply to many people (and one would hope all but that’s asking too much).
Maybe you aren’t reading widely enough, maybe you just don’t appreciate how McCain comes across when divorced from national interest, or however you decide on your opinions.
38- I’m not saying that. But when you get someone creating a “Fighting Anti-American” page with articles about how great America is (Note I am not saying there is anything wrong with that), and support the UK doing whatever America does, I wonder why that person doesnt catch a plane to the USA and apply for a Green card.
33- But Philippe (no adjectives required), the left-wing blogosphere is always in spastic colon mode; it’s just the degree of spasticity that varies. If you can discern panic from that rather than the same old tripe they always produce, with some added frenzy given the closeness of the election, then good for you.
@37. So who is this Tim Montgomerie?
36. If Obama loses Ohio, his chances of winning goes down dramatically…
538.com gives Obama less than 25% of winning the Elections if he loses Ohio…
And now nobody can call Ohio.
It is virtually a tie.
44- You never been to littlegreenfootballs then?
40 - I was asking a serious question - never really had a go betting and wanted to know if what I saw was correct. What are the risks.
I suppose as the 2 are seperate you would have to tie up twice as much money rather taking advantage of moving prices on one to end up green before the event.
39. That really is pathetic.
41 Pas de probleme, Philippe.
43 - Clearly they are intent on attempting to change attitudes to America in Britain, one imagines that is easier from Britain than America.
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: McCain will win by a country mile.
44 I have to admit that I don’t read much of the left-wing blogosphere. Sincerely.
I felt a kind of panic however emanating from this corner of the political universe coze those 2 wild rumors reached my brain pretty much faster and louder than usual…
Also, the conflict with Russia is escalating — and I think that it can help Mac wins some toss-up states — if it keeps on going.
+ Ohio tying up…
@52:
Some reasoning would be nice.
42- You are the one who said that “the two main stories coming out of this” were the supposed plagiarism story and the advance notice of questions story. In whose world are those the two main stories? In the view of the American public? That is the only reasonable basis, in political terms, for judging that those are the two main stories. If you really believe those are the two main stories from Saddleback in terms of effect on the presidential race, you are living in a deluded left-wing fantasy land. As I’ve said before, the greatest danger for the left is that might believe its own propaganda.
46 It seems to be a tie now in Colorado as well, so I can’t help thinking it’ll be another rerun of the last two very closely fought elections, albeit I think just going in the Democrat’s direction, this time.
33 - A little bit too obvious there this time Mista Magnan.
54, my reasoning is — “Americans”. Nobody would be happier than I if I were proved wrong.
.. ans whilst we pontificate on such matters another British soldier dies in Afghanistan……..
Yay, match is back on. Scotland now 96/5 (34.0/44 ov)
@58:
Well, that’s me convinced.
55 - I made a distinction with ’stories’ as in things arising from the debate itself. It’s just how I see them going, I’m sure next time there will be something on an apparent Obama untruth or shady tactic, my point is that the debates are only going to be as effective as the dust that they kick up, as a Republican I would have thought you appreciated that, given the history.
I regularly immerse myself in Krauthammer, Kristol, Brooks and so on. In fact, I could probably name more conservative commentators than the opposite. I find it useful to read them to see what I don’t believe, this is why I am much more against McCain than I am for Obama I suppose.
If Obama *does* win, I promise not to mention ID cards again until 2009.
62 - Should read “things arising from *beyond* the debate itself”
23. Exactlty - log on to the frikking RTE website for updates. Typical Republicans - against the crown but want totake the half-crown.
56 — About Colorado
An impressive analysis by RCP’s Jay Cost :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/08/swing_state_review_colorado_1.html
—
I also think it’s gonna be quite close. So I think it’s a good time to buy Mac — maybe next week is better though : buying Mac while Denver is spinning…
Re 37 Tim Montgomerie was IDS’s chief aide and went onto to create ConHome. He is from the authoritarian wing of the party and refuses to put a link to PB on his site.
If all Tories were like Tim Labour would be in power forever
Democratic veep prices are back up at ladbrokes.
We are cheering on Biden, Sebelius and Kaine.
We are booing Clark, Veneman, Reed and Clinton. Sorry Mike.
56- Sean, you may want to consider that the polls, as always, are a snapshot of the moment, and many, many moments have yet to play out in this race. In fact, most of the race in practical terms has yet to happen. None of us knows what surprises are in store, but Obama has some great advantages, both in historical terms and in more tangible terms, that have yet to play out. I agree with you on the final outcome, but I don’t think it will be as razor-close as you currently believe. Look at it this way: most of what remains to occur in this race should heavily benefit Obama. Things like Russia/Georgia are certainly a wild card, but this event will likely have largely blown over by election day. Something else could pop up, but for McCain’s purposes, it would have been much more useful had the invasion of Georgia occured a month or two later.
So what is the best website (apart from this one!) to get the latest non-biased US election news?
I’m surprised there has been so little comment on the resignation of Pervez Musharraf, which I suspect will prove to be one of the key events of our time (certainly of far greater significance than the Georgian contretemps which has everyone so excited).
67 He often links to articles here, though.
@67:
I don’t think that Tim’s a bad chap, but his particular vision of a Christian authoritarian Conservative Party is abhorrent to me and to many (most?) Tories.
As such, I find the way that he uses ConHome to speak ‘on behalf of’ Tories to be irritating.
Is there some reason why he refuses to link here? Personal animosity? Principled opposition to gambling? Envious of your total page impressions?
66 - The water thing is pretty important to Coloradoans (or whatever they are called!)
68 - The later the announcement the greater chance it will be Clinton in my opinion, more chance to show this team off without commentators pontificating and, also, a less well known candidate would surely benefit from being announced earlier.
70 - Actually, look at Drudge’s headlines, he isn’t the ogre of yore and appears pretty fair handed with his choice of stories and articles.
67. Thanks Mike.
65 - Er, Northern Irish people pay their taxes and the licence fee too and have every right to expect their state broadcaster to cover their athletes. And if you think every sportsperson that represents an all-Ireland team is a republican or even a nationalist then you are seriously misinformed.
Next Labour Leader In Scotland
William Hill
I Gray 8/11
A Kerr 5/2
C Jamieson 3/1
Ladbrokes
I Gray 1.66
C Jamieson 3.75
A Kerr 4.00
@77:
Labour leaning towards the “no change at any cost” candidate then.
Excellent.
69: I suspect you’re right. I think the Democrats are just so fired up this year that the differential turnout will push them over the top.
That said, I don’t think either McCain or Obama is exactly a dream candidate. In different circumstances I think we’d be seeing J Bush vs. M Warner.
76. Sorry - so if I lived in France I should expect French Tv to cover team GB ???
35 a lot easier said than done. Visa requirements are strict. Besides, you can love a country yet still much prefer your own.
66- It is heartening to see published political analysis substantiated by so much data! Not because it makes the analysis better, but because we have a basis to make our own informed judgments.
The historical stuff is good, including comparing Colorado to Pennsylvania and Ohio. But if you look at the bigger picture in Colorado, you’ll see that the state has been shifting very rapidly over the past few years, more rapidly than almost any other state. This means that data going back to 1952 may not be very useful in judging what will happen in the state this year. I expect Obama to win nationally by a margin of about 54%-46% in the two-party popular vote, and his margin in Colorado will likely be pretty close to that national margin.
80 - Perhaps you are unaware that Northern Ireland is part of the UK?!
67 - do you think it’s anything to do with the betting aspect of this site? I guess it’s fairly old school, but betting does go against some Christians’ beliefs.
70- I would suggest realclearpolitics.com. But I don’t want to lead you to believe you’ll find non-biased coverage there; that is pretty hard to come by anywhere! But at least you’ll find a range of analyses, mixed in with some of the best of the less opinion-centered pieces.
On Thread….
The VP markets have been a minefield for punters. The overrounds have been colossal. Often this is offset by the ease with which one can delete no-hopers, but not in this case. To make matters worse, the pundits have been all over the place and there have been no worthwhile leaks.
Mike isn’t the only one to have struggled with these markets. I’ll be happy to break even. If it’s Clinton, I’ll be giving Morus a large number of used notes and my handgun to use on her when she surfaces at Denver.
Romney for the GOP VP is hardly more thrilling for me.
Bad market. I don’t know how Shads has managed to have ANY losers on his books at all.
Does Tim Montgomerie refuse to post on Sundays?
83 - Perhaps you are unaware that there are Northern Irish competitors in Team GB? Those who chose an alternative option can hardly complain if British coverage of their achievements is scant.
[from previous thread] Neil, as you Irish like to say, feck off.
If these “British” athletes who live in Britain and benefit from British benefits, health service, defence, etc, still feel so Irish and so anti-British that they would rather compete under the Irish flag than their natural British flag, then they can hardly expect the BRITISH Broadcasting Corporation, funded by us loyal Brits, to lavish them with attention.
Or am I missing something?
Jeepers. The attitude of the Celtic fringe really takes some beating. And I speak as a Cornish Celt. The Cornish can be just as bad. Mewling puking whining whingeing ridiculous spoilt crappy bunch of girlies. The Scots, Irish, Cornish, Welsh, they are like a wife sitting on the sofa eating all the chocolates who is constantly “on the blob” and moaning about her husband who does all the bleeding work to pay for her Bendicks Bittermints.
Grow up.
Not that I have anything against the Irish as Irish. Good luck to ‘em. But don’t expect me to pay for a broadcaster to cover YOUR athletes. Bejasus.
From previous thread “The choice of team does not affect one’s nationality or identity (which deserves to be respected by all). One can be Irish and British.”
Errr no, the choice of team DOES affect ones nationality or identity. By choosing Ireland, they are saying they are either Irish or feel more Irish than British.
76- “Northern Irish people pay their taxes and the licence fee too”
Well some of them do. Like I said, something like 50% of people who should pay the license fee dont.
83- “Perhaps you are unaware that Northern Ireland is part of the UK?!”
Yeah, which is why we cover the Norther Ireland athletes who represent Britain.
82- Is there any realistic chance of Obama winning Virginia?
79- Turnout will be one huge factor favoring Democrats this year, and the other huge factor will be the fairly predictable swing of uninformed and/or waffling centrists back to the Democrats. Most presidential elections are decided by these folks in the middle who just can’t seem to figure out what exactly they believe, but they know they have a bad taste in their mouths about how things are going in the country and they will in the end be persuaded by the “change” argument.
87 -
88. Is this to do with allegiances? Or is it to do with there being some sports that have continued to operate on an all-Ireland basis even after the secession of the Free State from the UK?
86 - Why shouldn’t he have losers on his books? If a bookmaker is convinced a candidate won’t win, there is no reason why he should adjust the odds to stop gullible punters handing him cash. I think Ladbrokes were probably right to offer superficially tempting odds on Clark, Clinton and others.
And he never said they would be losers for him anyway. He just said he would be booing them so that might mean they are less big winners than other candidates for him.
91 - I would say it’s a probability with Kaine or Warner on the ticket and a toss-up otherwise.
RCP is to the right in its balance of articles, I can’t think of anything similar on the left though. I like the bloggers at The Atlantic and am probably closest to Andrew Sullivan in much of my politics (as shown by the times I quote him!)
One absolute ‘must’ is factcheck.org, which cuts through all the rubbish that the campaigns spew out and gets much closer to the truth. In fact, I would say it’s indispensible.
91- Definitely, Obama has a chance in Virginia. That state is also shifting rapidly toward the Democrats, along with New Hampshire and Colorado as mentioned above. The Republicans may enjoy one or two more presidential elections (where they do better in Virginia than their overall national result, but the GOP advantage there is rapidly dwindling. If Obama wins nationally by the margin I expect, I think Virginia will turn out to be one of the closest races in the nation and could really go either way. McCain would probably win it by 1%-2%, but that is a shaky prediction. But if Obama picks Kaine or Warner, I expect the Democrats to win there.
90 - “By choosing Ireland, they are saying they are either Irish or feel more Irish than British.”
In reality, they could equally well be saying that they have a greater prospect of selection and/or funding.
89 - “Or am I missing something?”
Yes. Try the Good Friday Agreement for starters. A little bit of respect for people’s identity goes a long way. Being British and Irish are not mutually exclusive. Representing an Irish team can be completely consistent with loyalty to the UK and does not make one anti-British. It is insulting to suggest otherwise. Anyway, that’s probably more than enough about a throw away comment on a BBC blog.
I see the winning female Russian pole vaulter had REALLY tight shorts. Oooh*.
*It’s ten pm here.
Good anthem too, the Russians. It’s the old Soviet one, innit? Excellent tune. Good idea to keep it. But why did they choose that tedious new flag? It’s like the flag of a small boring western European country, Holland or Luxembourg or something. Very disappointing.
Which provokes the question, which country has the best flag and anthem, and the best of combination of both? Without getting too jingoistic, I think the Union Jack is the best flag. Instantly recognisable, unique, attractive, striking, clever, intelligently symbolic, and surprisingly complex. Go the Union Jack!
Trouble is our anthem is mediocre. Not terrible, but mediocre. The French have a great anthem - maybe the best? - but a pretty boring flag. I think Nazi Germany used to have the best combination - brilliant Swastika flag, great stirring anthem (Deutschland uber alles - cracking stuff). But I understand the flag has now been discontinued, due to branding problems.
Who would pb-ers nominate, for the best flag, anthem, and flag-anthem combination?
100. At rugby yes.
In athletics = no.
These guys have made a choice - stop bleating that the BBC isn’t covering them.
100. This link suggests a wide variety of different organisational structures - UK/All-Ireland/6 counties/9-county Ulster across different sports.
http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/csc/reports/sugdenharvie/sugdenharvie95-3.htm
101- The Germans haven’t ditched the anthem, though. It’s still “Deutschland uber Alles,” “uber Alles in der Welt”…
It sounds pretty pompous and nationalistic, but it’s nothing next to the French national anthem, which calls for impure foreign blood to soak their fields.
101. USA is up there on the flag front - and anthem is not bad. Has added benefits of being like kryptonite for lefties so gets bonus points. Canada has a very recognisable flag but who knows the anthem ?
The Ozzies and Kiwi’s must hate their flags - talk about colonial Jackboot
101 EU Flag - Ode to Joy.
People we have just moved to SeanT - DefCon 1.
Protect and Survive.
[The Irish Question] - As far as I can tell there have been no medals won by Irish [as opposed to those competing as "British"] competitors yet in the Olympics. This compares to 27 medals won by the “British”.
I’m confused as to what coverage has apparently been missed out on.
101 - Actually I was thinking about the anthem and decided that we come out well. One thing it has is which others don’t elegance (it’s in 3/4 which helps. It doesn’t need to beat its chest and break out the drums and trumpets, as if to say ‘we are so good we don’t even have to try, we could have Elgar but that would be so *vulgar*’.
69. I’d watch Ukraine closely though. The Ukrainians aren’t happy about having the Russian fleet there anymore, and there are stories of the Russians handing out passports in the Crimea area. It’s possible the situation will get a lot more complicated soon.
I want to start betting, does anyone reccomend a site? Betfair seems to be good. Should I register? Also, does anyone know which stock market simulator programs are good for practising investing?
@101:
Boris Yeltsin got rid of the old Stalin-approved anthem, Putin reinstated it.
If the BBC covered Ireland more though, they would be accused of acting like they think Ireland is still part of the UK.
Best Anthem is def. Russia.
Best flag is Papua New Guinea!
104- The German anthem doesnt have the words Deutschland uber Alles in it though. It was removed in the 50s or something…
Russia’s anthem is great. I also approve of Germany’s and the EU’s.
Best flag: Albania.
112. yes, though Swiss TV apparently hasn’t cottoned on to that yet…
Final score for Scotland 156/9 (44.0/44 ov)
England target will be a bit different cos of D/L
If England can’t score above 3.5 an over then boy are we in trouble!
100. Give it up Neil, it’s a losing argument. If you live in Britain and benefit from British taxes and benefits and you want to be covered and lauded by the British Broadcasting Corporation - then join team Great Britain in the Olympics.
If you choose to compete for a foreign country, then the British Broadcasting Corporation, paid for by Brits, might not be quite so enthusiastic. Derrr.
105. USA - very good flag, but maybe slightly “busy” as they say in design circles? The anthem is strong, but a bit shrill. But definitely a powerful combination.
Actually, Jonathan, I’d agree on the EU anthem - Ode to Joy is of course one of the greatest anthems of all. And the flag is quite cool, but a bit neutral (though I have heard, controversially, it is based on the halo of stars that traditionally adorns the Virgin Mary in Catholic iconography. Thomas Cranmer would not be amused).
So, yes, another good combination.
The EU flag is nowhere near as good as the British or Nazi flags though.
101 Seriously.
South Africa is pretty good on both counts. Moving.
France is probably the best combo. Great tune (tune orginally comes from a drinking song I understand from A Strasbourg tour guide) and the flag is so simple and much copied. Father Jack can’t get enough of it.
If we had Spandau Ballet’s Gold we would be top. Our flag is let down.
Agree Russian anthem is stirring stuff. Hunt for Red October.
112- Really? I hadn’t heard that. What did they change it to? Perhaps befitting the traumatized post-war German self-image, it was just tweaked to something like “Deutschland unter Alles, unter alles in der Welt.”
Time to sell US dollars and to buy oil…, methinks.
101 Best National Anthem by a mile is the Welsh, SeanT. Do you think we could buy it off them to replace our sad old dirge?
Of course, chez PtP, we wake to the strains of Ode To Joy. I know it by heart. Would you like me to sing it for you?
Agree about the flag though. Union Jack is second to none. We really should repatriate it from the BNP.
@112:
Not true. The fourth verse was removed, and that *also* had Uber Alles in it, but it’s still there with pride of place in verse 1.
101 - For combination, I’d put in a bid for the USA. I agree that the union flag is top rank, but God Save The Queen is dull dull dull. (No wonder they sing Rule Britannia at the Last Night of the Proms.)
The USA has a very nifty flag, and musically the Star Spangled Banner is really quite interesting (though a complete bugger to sing).
Best flags - Switzerland gets marks for innovation by using a different shape. China’s has a bold but simple design, as does Japan. For me, South Korea just wins out on stylistic flair. My nephew, who is a flag connoisseur, is keenest on Nepal.
105- “The Ozzies and Kiwi’s must hate their flags - talk about colonial Jackboot”
Whats the deal with that anyway? Canada changed their flag years ago. Given how popular rebublicanisn is in Australia, why havent they changed their flag?!
101 seanT - I imagine you’re especially fond of the sixth and rarely-sung verse of our national anthem:
“Lord grant that Marshal Wade
May by thy mighty aid
Victory bring.
May he sedition hush,
And like a torrent rush,
Rebellious Scots to crush.
God save the Queen!”
113- You can’t beat Libya’s flag, though: simplicity itself!
101-It’s the old pre-revolutionary Russian flag. The coat-of-arm is suitably grandiose and imperial.
http://www.crwflags.com/fotw/flags/ru).html
109-Will be in Crimea next week, will report if I see anything!
101 Best national anthem - the French (through gritted teeth)
Always liked Brazil’s flag. Colourful - and with a picture of the southern hemisphere’s night sky to let you get your bearings as to where you are on earth. Pretty much tells you what you need to know.
Best flag though for telling you what you get is undoutedly Albania. Blood red, with black double-headed stylised eagle. If you were looking for a flag that says two-bit backward country with bad attitude - and a wretched record on almost any metric you choose to use - I would defy a thousand advertising executives to come up with anything better.
http://unimaps.com/flags-africa/mozambique-flag.gif
Shocking lack of love for the Mozambique flag; probably one of the maddest going.
116 - Personally I think the EU anthem is the greatest irony known to man. A hymn of praise to joy, for an institution that in the main provokes unremitting misery.
118 & 121- I’m no expert on it.
From Wikipedia:
“Das Deutschlandlied (”The Song of Germany”, also known as Das Lied der Deutschen, “The Song of the Germans”) has been used wholly or partially as the national anthem of Germany since 1922. Outside Germany it is sometimes known by the opening words and refrain of the first stanza, Deutschland, Deutschland über alles (Germany, Germany above everything), but this was never its title.”
“Only the third verse currently is the Federal Republic of Germany’s National Anthem. The other two stanzas are not part of the National Anthem.”
That starts: Einigkeit und Recht und Freiheit, Für das deutsche Vaterland!
Which means: Unity and justice and freedom For the German fatherland!
And it doesnt have “Deutschland über alles” in it.
No nominations for Italy’s national anthem yet? I’d place it very near the top of the pile.
I’m a liberal but even I prefer the US anthem to ours, which (as the saying goes) consists of repeated pleas for an entity that doesn’t exist to save an institution that shouldn’t.
109 Betfair is indispensible, Thomas. If you get a friend to recommend you, he/she gets a small payment.
Can’t help with financial markets. Don’t touch ‘em.
Salmond on Test Match Special talking up the Scotland Test team!
128- If the AK47 changes to an M-16, we know the political allegance of the country has changed!
120 I agree about the Welsh national anthem, although “Guide Me Oh, thou Great Redeemer” is even more stirring.
129 Yeah, but it’s a great tune, Jim!
126. It would be interesting to know the mood if you can post! It would be my guess for the flashpoint of the next European war, the best bet by a long way.
Flags - I’d go for Japan, simple and symbolic. Worst flag - Libya, I mean couldn’t they make just a litle bit of effort?
The best that can be said for our anthem is that the Queen gives it credibility. I just can’t see the crowds getting worked up to save Charles.
I like the British Antarctic Territory flag as it is always nice to see a penguin fighting a lion.
134 - They don’t have a “test” team do they as they don’t have test match status?
Why does England have no National Anthem?
And can we make it “Jerusalem”?
124- The words “Rebellious Scots to crush.” has NEVER been part of the British anthem.
125 - Hah! I hadn’t seen your post, even on flags we appear to be completely the opposite.
I love the old state flag of the Shah or Iran too. You really can’t beat a flag with a lion wielding a sword:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:State_Flag_of_Iran_(1964).svg
Someone who designs flags is a “vexillographer”.
Just one of those odd words I know. Perhaps because it is quite an appealling later-life career….
137 - As a huge fan of Beethoven, I have no problem with the tune. I have no actual problem with Schillers poem. I just think appropriating it to a ragbag organisation is a travesty.
As we’re talking about best flags to march under whilst forging a new empire, I’d suggest Japan. Bold ,simple, agressive - it’s not just the sun, it’s a sun of blood!
133. Cheers.
131- Goes on too long
141 I know but he was busy predicting that ‘in a few years’ they will have one.
The Seychelles flag makes my head spin.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/92/Flag_of_the_Seychelles.svg/22px-Flag_of_the_Seychelles.svg.png
146- Strange, that’s what my career aptitude test once told me I should be…
@143:
The words “Rebellious Scots to crush.” has NEVER been part of the British anthem.
It’s an aspiration, not a commitment.
Whoops, should be http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Flag_of_the_Seychelles.svg
142. Didn’t you see that the C of E issued some kind of ban on ‘Jeruslaem’! The movement to make it an English anthem had been growing and they decided it was too nationalistic and aggresive for their churches and not Christian. You couldn’t really parody the C of E these days.
142 Hmmm….isn’t Jerusalem a bit ‘leftish’, Martin.
On reflection, could we sell Jerusalem to the Israelis? I’ve never heard the Israeli National Anthem but I doubt it’s as musical.
142 - They use Jerusalem for the “entrance music” for test cricket but not really as an anthem. Land of Hope and Glory is used at the Commonwealth Games.
127-I must admit when I went there I didn’t know what to expect.
At least two metrics were good:
-weather
-food (actually very Italianesque)
If al-Qaida ever does manage to conquer a country, rather than come up with something new I imagine Saudi Arabia’s decapitation-threatening design might suffice…
Got to love Bhutan, too. A funky dragon clutching four snooker balls. And what is that background colour - taupe? Beige?
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/flags/bt-flag.html
147 Teasing, James, as you well knew…but on a (slightly) serious note, has it ever occurred to you that it’s odd Schiller conjured the image ‘…wie ein Held zum Siegen’ in an ode to joy?
Sometimes they worry me, those Germans.
155 They’d probably feel more comfortable singing songs in praise of Cthulhu.
117. No, I think the French flag is very weak - it was a fairly striking design when it first came out, but now its been copied so many times its been devalued. There are a zillion tricolours.
The Japanese Imperial flag with that sunburst effect was pretty awesome. Perhaps some unfortunate connotations today, however. Looks a bit like a nuke hitting a large industrial city south of Tokyo.
Yes PeterthePunter - I think we might have found an unlikely winner in… Wales. A very striking flag - green and white and a stonking red dragon. Cool! And an absolutely brilliant anthem. Whenever I hear it before rugby matches, even though I am desperate for the English to whip the Taffs, I get a prickling at the back of the neck.
Wales, a worthy winner for best combination?
@156:
Is it?
I always thought it would serve to demonstrate how charmingly self-deprecating we Englishers are.
As well as being magnificently drunken-chantworthy.
try this one for st pierre & Miquelon. ok so not a country but a territorial collectivity but the Pugwash vibe is great.
http://www.flags.net/STPM.htm
158 Why weather and food - when you can get the same elsewhere along the Med without any of the Other Stuff that goes with Albania. Only metric on which they truly stand out is Bizarre Love of British Fifties’ Comedy Clowns. We had an office in Albania for a while - and I achieved amazing kudos for getting Norman Wisdom to sign a picture to them with a personal message. It was hung in the office and had shrine-like status. Got to love that!
163 SeanT - We agree. And not for the first time, me old china.
Wales wins.
Flag alone, I quite like Albania.
Anthem alone, not alot beats the French.
Combination - my native Wales by a country kilometres and a half.
164 - Making Jerusalem the National Anthem of the UK or of it’s principal constituent part would be one of the few things that would encourage me to up sticks and decamp from this green and pleasant land.
163 Yes, I agree. And the red dragon was used as a standard by Edward III at Crecy, so it has excellent historical resonance.
165 - It gladdens the heart to know that the EU stretches almost to the shores of North America.
123 “Whats the deal with that anyway? Canada changed their flag years ago. Given how