Could Obama be making the Gordon Brown mistake?
August 20th, 2008
Is the VEEP teasing like last autumn’s UK election speculation?
One of the main reasons why Mr Brown is in trouble now, as we all know, is that he and his team allowed the talk of an early general election last autumn to get out of hand. There was a sense that they were teasing the public, the media and the rest of the Westminster village and that when it all got called off the mood changed dramatically.
Is there a danger that the same thing could happen over Obama’s running mate where speculation is growing almost by the hour. Yes he has to make a decision but if its going to be one of the “safe” fairly humdrum choices such as Joe Biden then why all the delay?
It’s getting to a stage where unless the choice is so sensational that the news, when it dribbles out by text message, will seem something of a disappointment.
Just check out this from the ABC news political blog. Biden leaves his home and seems to rule himself out. When he gets back from his trip he tells the reporters camped outside something different and more equivocal.
Meanwhie every word that Obama is saying gets scrutinised to the nth degree. Last night the presumed nominee was talking about the choice using the term “he” - ruling out, apparently, all the female possibilities.
Assuming it isn’t the former First Lady then I still think that he has a big problem with the convention next week. Getting on for 45% of the delegates are for Hillary and he does not want to do anything to stoke up trouble on that front. Remember that there will be a roll call vote on Tuesday.
In fact it is even being suggested that the reason his acceptance speech has been moved from the convention centre to 90,000 seater stadium is to dillute the pro-Hillary factions.
VP betting.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
If it is Biden how long before we get treated to a rendition about Biden plagiarizing the great Kinnockio?
Was it all about thousand generations and first to go to university or some such OTT guff?
OBAMA/McCAIN — WIN PERCENTAGE
INTRADE (last trade): 60.9 / 39.0 %
BETFAIR (last trade): 64.9 / 33.3 %
538.com (projection): 53.9 / 46.1 %
I hope Svelte Morus learns the words:
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/6070172df7
(via Finkelstein)
1 - The musical equivalent would be to be caught plagiarising Howard Jones.
The difference between Gordon Brown’s position and that of Barack Obama is that Barack Obama must choose a running mate, while Gordon Brown need not have allowed election speculation to build. Obama will not be harmed much by a sense of anti-climax about his choice provided that his choice is sound.
Barack Obama is doing an excellent job of keeping this election competitive. In a year which should be a walkover for the Democrats, that’s quite an achievement. I still expect him to win comfortably though.
4. antifrank: Barack Obama is doing an excellent job of keeping this election competitive.
That might be an interesting way of looking at it: Obama wants it to not be close, but for all his voters to believe it’s close, so they all turn out and he gets a landslide…
Up to a point, Mike, but not I think entirely.
What are the chances that Obama will call the whole thing off and not have a VP candidate?
What are the chances that Obama will call in just one favoured (because favourable) journalist and give him a world scoop?
This is a bit of a strip tease. But the difference is that Obama will go through with it. While Brown didn’t even take his jacket off.
Previous thread: GB / UK / Ireland Olympic teams
Letter from the British Olympic Association, 1996
Dear Mr Loony,
Thank you for your recent letter regarding the history of the title of the Great Britian Olympic Team.
When the British Olympic Assosication was created in 1905, Great Britain was a flourishing Empire and the team that the BOA sent out to an Olympic Games was known as the Great Britain team. This team title has never been changed since that time. However, atyhletes from Northern ireland are given a choice as to which country they represent in competition, Eire or GB.
(Yours etc.)
Morning campers!
I see from the end of the last thread, when I was safely tucked up in my Bangkok bed, that Nick Palmer accused me of “taking on too many targets”. Naturally I scoffed at the very idea. But then I remembered that yesterday I was in, ahem, a fairly extrovert mood, so I went to have a look.
Hm.
I see that in the course of one single pb day I was, shall we say, fairly promiscuous in my imprecations.
By 5.34 am I had already called Scotland a “tedious little boghole of a midge-infested “country” ”
I then accused laser-class sailing of being “the small, boring, barely-visible, stupidly-prolonged-competition tiny sailing boat class”.
Then I told Stuart Dickson I would soon be “forced to get “nawashi” on his pimply “jujun” ass.”
I also called him a “drooling Caledonian goblin”.
I followed up by laughing at coldstone for still changing pounds for euros; shortly after that I violently attacked… the Mozilla Thunderbird email service, by saying Gmail “did bukkake all over it”.
The cycling sport of Madison then came in for some abuse. I said it was “absurd” and “ludicrous”. I added that “a woman must have invented “Madison”” - because “Women do not understand sport.”
Later that afternoon I called Irish boxers “tra1tors”, I said Frances was a “monumentally boring coward” and a “crapulous sea-cucumber”, I called Nick Palmer a “stupid ex communist halfwit”, and I then had a go at the people at Number 10 who made “the dreadful sophomoric” Clarkson video, by saying they were “sad undersexed slow-witted careerist lefty cretins who couldn’t get a job as a sub for the Sun even if they had seven breasts each and offered to be a regular on page 3.”
Finally I accused wheeled luggage of being “gay”.
So, yes, I see Mister Palmer’s point. Perhaps sometimes I do get a bit over-feisty. But the trouble is most of what I say is true! Palmer IS an excommunist halfwit, as he would happily confess, Frances IS monumentally dull, just like all nationalists, and wheeled luggage IS totally gay.
So what should I do? Not tell the truth? I shall have to think about it. In the meantime I promise to be nicer to wheeled luggage. xx
8.
That post wouldn’t be nearly so funny without the two kisses at the end!
‘Public services grind to a halt across Scotland as 200,000 strike over pay’
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Public-services-grind-to-a.4406669.jp
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2429010.0.Oneday_strike_to_halt_all_public_services.php
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7571084.stm
“Veep teasing” a big mistake? I guess we’ll see when the result comes out, but I don’t think so. The idea of texting supporters so that they get the result first is ingenious. I think it’s more analogous with Labour’s deputy leadership contest, which was a bit of fun and excellent PR for Labour Party. (In those dim and distant days before it all went pear-shaped.)
Good headline Mike, but I see it as antifrank does above - unless Obama decides that he doesn’t need a Veep, there’s no real comparison to Brown’s dithering. What’s hard to fathom from over here is just how big a deal this is; I know we’re talking about it as it’s an active market in a quiet time on the exchanges, but is the speculation headline news over in the States? Is it on a par with ‘Who will Labour pick for Glenrothes?’
Barack Obama is a competent politician. Gordon Brown is… err, well… just Gordon Brown.
Nuff said.
7. Who is the deranged saboteur who mucked up my spelling? It must be a jealous anti-Olympics gremlin of some sort…
Mike wouldn’t it be an idea to put up a list of Bojo’s deputies (are there any left?) with odds on who will be the next to go?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/20/boris.london
I see it’s being suggested that Boris adopt the song, ‘Another one bites the dust’ as his anthem.
1. Quite an interesting idea, Kinnock’s, the first in a thousand generations to go to university. I was always facinated that no-one ever picked upon the absurdity of his proposition.
In the generality we all go through 3 or 4 generations per century. Some try for five but it is rarely to their advantage. The Royal Family has managed about 35 generations since the conquest. Which university did Neil wish the proto-Kinnocks had attended exactly ?
Setting aside the fact that surnames were not generally adopted until the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries and so previous generations were not Kinnocks as such for 980 generations his progenitors never had any universities to go to.
Methinks his wishes were more akin to that of the guy on Life of Brian who wanted to bear a baby or whatever.
Mike! this isn’t you putting £2.000 on a snap election is it?
http://tinyurl.com/5atbla
‘Auditor tells LibDems deficit could mean ‘end of business’’
“The auditor, PFF (UK)… warned that the deficit conditions “indicate the existence of a material unceratinty which may cast significant doubt about the party’s ability to continue as a going concern”.”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2429028.0.Auditor_tells_LibDems_deficit_could_mean_end_of_business.php
“The Scottish Liberal Democrats are officially separate from the party in England, which is also heavily in debt, but they are affiliated in a federal system. This means that the Scottish party is responsible for its own finances and would not necessarily be baled out from south of the Border.
… the party has only about 4,000 members.”
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Bust-fears-as-ScotsLib-Dems.4406626.jp
Just last year one of the sad band of PB.com Lib Dem rampers was telling us that the Scottish Lib Dems had over 5000 members. So, they have lost approx 20% of their members in a year. Way to go! Small wonder with Nicol Stephen at the helm. They had better pray that Tavish Scott can turn this around.
Paddy Power - “How many members of the Cabinet will lose their Parliamentary seats? - Applies to the number of cabinet ministers who lose their parliamentary seat at the next UK General Election. (22 MPs in total)”
1-6 11/10
7-11 6/4
12-16 3/1
17-21 12/1
None 16/1
All 22 40/1
http://www.paddypower.com/bet?action=go_type&category=SPECIALS&disp_cat_id=&ev_class_id=33&ev_type_id=10158&ev_oc_grp_ids=64931&bir_index=
At the risk of sticking my neck out, Clinton is calling the shots here, not Obama. Obama will pick Clinton for VEEP - or rather Clinton will pick Obama!
Then, when Barry is exposed for the sham he is, Clinton is ideally and officially placed to take over, or if not, then she’s up and running for 2012.
It’s the only way to heal the huge rift in the Democrat Party.
Have you got the right picture on top of the post? It should be Obama and Blair - they are like two peas in a pod.
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/08/blair-and-obama-born-in-same-stable.html
For Obamawatchers everywhere, C4 News has started sniffing around Obama
http://theorangepartyblog.blogspot.com/2008/08/c4-news-sniffing-around-obama.html
18. It couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch. I used to have some sympathy for the Scottish Lib Dems but after getting into bed with Scottish Labour then arrogantly denying the Scottish people a referendum on their consitutional future by refusing to go into coalition with the SNP then I wouldn’t care if they go bust.
As each day passes, the Lib Dems are becoming more of an irrelevance in Scottish politics.
19. The 12+ options look ludicrously stingy. Ironically, the best value may well be ‘none’ - compare those odds to the best for Labour winning an overall majority at the next election (11/2). Given that there’s only 30 or so MPs difference between the two and 16/1 doesn’t look too bad.
William Hill - Next Permanent Liberal Democrat Leader
C Huhne 5/2
V Cable 6/1
E Davey 7/1
N Harvey 10/1
M Moore 10/1
D Laws 12/1
D Alexander 12/1
…
C Kennedy 25/1
Well, I would’t put too much cash on Michael Moore or Danny Alexander, as neither is likely to be a member of the House of Commons after the next GE.
Moore’s jaiket is on an especially shooglie peg. And Danny Alexander is only 11 years old, so I would wait until he grows some pubes before investing the old beer tokens.
On topic, there are at least two big differences between the VP speculation and the GE speculation of last year. The first, as noted above, is that Obama does have to pick a running-mate, so there was always going to be speculation, and it would be difficult for him to pre-announce with a proper vote being taken at the convention unless he were to select Hillary. Doing otherwise would just wind some of her supporters up and it doesn’t take many dissenters out of several thousand delegates to create a bad atmosphere. Perhaps the Reagan ‘76 example is also at the back of his mind - it must be right for him to wait until he’s formally announced as the nominee (and by the way, last time I checked, both he and McCain could still be backed at 1/50 on Betfair for their respective nominations).
A bigger error might be making the main speech in the stadium. One of the persistent themes beginning to dog his candidature is perceived hubris. The World Tour did a lot to help that narrative along and addressing a 90,000 audience for his acceptance speech will give it still more momentum. There’s an opportunity opening up for McCain to speak on bread and butter issues to the average voter, undercutting Obama’s rhetoric and stardom. He still has a good chance of winning, money not withstanding.
5. A welcome return of the Palmer paradox.
re
2717. It isn’t me betting on an Olympic-driven election.Remember - nobody every made money betting on Gordon making a decision
18 Do you actually beliebe the rubbish you post , Stuart . True Scottish LibDems have a small net deficit of £ 22,000 this is peanuts in political terms . The LibDems in England aew not as you say heavily in debt but had net assets at the end of 2007 of 1.1 million as compared to Conservatives net debts of 7.7 million and Labour of nearly 18 million .
If as you say the Scottish LibDems debts of £ 22,000 are serious what about the SNP whose net debts at the end of 2007 were £ 584,814 .
Re membership Scottish LibDems mwmbership at the end of 2007 was 4100 down from 4345 at the end of 2006 . The Scottish Conservatives lost more members in 1 constituency Berwickshire R and S than the LibDems did in the whole of Scotland in 2007 down from 1157 to 755 .
24. Oops, forgot to mention the second difference between the two situations. The Veep speculation is taking place before the convention; the general election talk continued after Labour’s conference, and indeed after the Tory one.
That means that once the running mate is selected, most of the speculation will be forgotten. The political high-point will be the convention itself and what happens there, followed by the Republicans, and then the election campaign itself. Any negatives brought about by delaying the announcement will be swept away by events. By contrast, by keeping the election hype on the front burner, the non-decision and then stepping back became the dominant story of the early Autumn. Had Brown done a Callaghan ‘78 and announced to his conference that there was no need to go to the country (Brown, unlike Callaghan, had the good excuse of being less than half way through the parliament), it wouldn’t have been nearly as damaging.
Mike @ 8:26 - Your numbering must be different to mine. You’ve just replied to a post two numbers after your own!?
25 - Could we have a link to a numbered list of Smithson’s laws?
re 28 Thanks David - ever alert. I’ve fixed it
19. Gordon could win the bet by re-shuffling his cabinet about 3 days before the GE and filling the cabinet with the 22 MPs in the most marginal or vulnerable seats.
test
19. I’m currently anticipating four probable losses, two possible losses and two narrow holds - so I see no real value in either 1-6 or 7-11 options.
26. Mark Senior
Ooooh, get her!!
Err, Mark, it is simply the Herald and the Scotsman reporting the fact that your auditors issued an official warning. It was the Scotsman, not I, who reported that the English Lib Dems were “also heavily in debt”. Please do not make things up.
Now, lie down in a dark room for 20 minutes, and breathe deeply, while thinking of flowers and cosy cardigans and other sandal-related items. Meanwhile, I’m going to have a wee skip in my step all day today. Ta-ra!
16. LOL!
That said, among Kinnock’s ancestors, there’s almost certainly bound to be someone who went to University.
26. Why would a party spend close to a million quid on an election where they only win 16 seats and then show no desire to form part of the government when offered?? Where is the logic?
34 Stuart , I would have thought that you were a bit more experienced than to believe everything you read in a newspaper and done a bit of checking of facts which are all available on the electoral commission website before gleefully pouncing on a bit of negative LibDem news which unfortunately for you is totally false .
@37:
So, you’re saying the Scottish Lib Dems did not receive a warning from the auditors, and that the entire thing is made up?
Morning folks,
just with regard ton the posting that Chris made about the Clarkson petition last night after I had gone to bed.
Did someone seriously say to one of the papers that:
“I signed the petition in good faith that they take these things seriously.”
They signed a petition that Jeremy Clarkson should be made PM and expected to be taken in any way seriously?
There are more nutters around than I thought.
13. It does seem very unfair indeed to bracket Obama with Brown.
35-For those mathematicians out there, say 3 people per generation, what would 3^1000 be?
My computer only does to about 3^625 which gives 1.5878e298, now that is Zimbabwe $ style 298 0’s after the 1.
So, apart from being a windbag (1000 generations) he is doing justice to his Kinnochio name tag as I suspect that out of 1.5878e298 at least ONE must have gone to university.
BTW-Did Biden have such recourse to fancy language or was he more restrained? (”first in 15 generations…”)
38 Of course the auditors did put a warning in their report that there was a net deficit of £22,000 , I wonder what these auditors would have put in the SNP accounts with their net deficit of £848,000 .
@42:
That the SNP’s deficit is servicable, but the Lib Dems’ is not?
Really, Mark. You should at least take the time to understand an article before you criticise it, or you’ll make yourself look like a silly.
42. So I am confused is the story true or not. I thought you said it was rubbish now your saying the the auditors did issue a warning…
39, you’d be surprised. Some people actually voted for Ed Balls to be an MP.
I think Mike’s right that there’s a danger for Obama in the delaying. Brown was particularly hurt by the election speculation because he had made big claims to be above spin - not flash, just Gordon. Obama did the same thing by promising to be above politics. Especially if the pick is quite hum-drum, the speculation feeding could come across as cynical manouvering. In which case it all adds to take the lustre off Obama’s image. Also, if people get to thepoint where they’re irritated by the length of the speculation they may very well think of McCain’s ‘celebrity’ ads. Obviously, later events will supersede this in the public’s attention, so the effect won’t be nearly so dramatic as it was for Brown, but the potential is there for damage. The thing is, if Obama’s image is really tarnished, the election becomes about policy. If the election is abut policy, Obama’s record is way to the left of the centre of US politics.
43 Really Martin you need to look at the accounts before you make yourself look silly .
44 As a bare fact that part of the article was true but other aspects of it were false . English LibDems are not heavily in debt but alone of the major parties had net assets of over £1,000,000 .
45 - Yes but in that part of the world they put a monkey in a red rosette and it would win… on second thoughts it’s clear they did!
Also Morris Dancing seems to be a new cultural thing, the Speccie doing an article on it last week and today a cartoon featuring the pastime in the Mail. You are clearly in the vanguard!
48, the Age of Morris Dancing shall mark the end of the Time of Balls:D
Its this sort of economic madness which caused the credit crunch. If you have a high level of income you can service a bigger debt.
If you have a very small income then even small levels of debt can be dangerous.
On a broader theme - with the resurgengce of the SNP, the Lib Dems are no longer required in Scotland.
OT — This morning’s London Metro leads on the atrocious story of an innocent man being arrested, handcuffed, DNA-swabbed and detained, all for daring to photograph a police car driving illegally up a one-way street.
The newspaper consistently has a pro-civil liberties, anti-ID cards stance which I fully recommend.
50. Isn’t the real point that the Lib Dems face electoral meltdown, rather than financial?
51, bloody outrageous. Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
I know that’s generally used in a different context, but I think the message is equally valid here. “Who guards the guards?”
Er, not sure of Latin for ‘police’.
50 SNP income in 2007 was around 3.5 times that of Scottish LibDems but their net debt is nearly 40 times greater .
Watched Alex Salmond on the telly last night- my goodness that man has put on some beef in the past few months… I certainly wouldn’t want to deal with his health insurance…
Does he keep stopping at the Carron Fish bar on his drive down to Edinburgh? I think we should be told…
52 Nope .
@50:
True. I think the people of Scotland have also realised that. There really is no need for a Scots Lib Dem party. It’s even more pointless than the English party.
51
You forgot to mention the key point: the police car driving illegally was on an urgent mission of justcie…
to collect fish and chips… (or so one version said)..
You could not make it up…
35 / 41 - If he were a member of the publi chosen at random perhaps, but he wasn’t.
He was MP for Bedwallty (now Islwyn), and attended Tredegar Comprehensive in the South Wales Valleys, where my Dad used to teach. He was born in 1942.
I presume he knew that neither of his parents went to university, and that they would have been aware if their parents had been to University, so if some of his ancestors had, and he just wasn’t aware, we’re talking the great-grandparents of someone born in 1942 or before. Taking 20-year generations, we’re talking working class from the South Wales valleys born about 1880 going to university in about 1900.
I would be astounded if anyone from this background at this time was going to university. I don’t think it was a tall-story at all - I would be more sceptical of the opposite.
Looks like accounts are a bit of an issue for the Libdems at the moment: see this item from the Carlisle ‘News and Star’.
“THE Conservatives on Cumbria County Council have turned on their former coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats.
Relations broke down last week when Liberal Democrat Joan Stocker was stripped of her cabinet responsibilities for performance and finance.
The council’s leader, Tim Stoddard, ordered the move after serious errors were found in the accounts for the second year running.
Now Jim Buchanan, a fellow cabinet member and leader of the Conservative group, has backed Mr Stoddard’s stance.
He said: “Members were assured that the council had a new accounting system to improve the quality of financial, management and reporting information.
“Despite this we have been alerted that the error last year has occurred again. This year the error was more than three times larger.
“Throughout this period Mrs Stocker held the political responsibility for the council’s budget as the portfolio holder.”
Although no money is missing, the mistakes have ruined any chance the council had of improving its lowly two-star rating from the Audit Commission.”
56 and what useful purpose does the Scottish Conservative party serve ?
60 - Everyone needs a right of centre party to vote for, or do you not believe people need choice at elections?
@60:
Well, we’re in favour of the Union, for one. Are you?
Oh, wait. You’re “not sure”.
60. Keeps gin sales bouyant ?
8 yesterday was definetely one of your better days
on the wheeled luggage thing - if you are concerned do what I do and surround yourself with the fruit of your loins and gorgeous wife whenever wheeled luggage is involved; maintain metrosexual credentials with a nice pink shirt from Ede and Ravenscroft.
60. At the next GE the Tories will poll more votes in Scotland than the Lib Dems. And could very well win more seats as well.
@63:
Without Annabel, most of Eck’s platform would never clear the Scottish Parliament thanks to Lib Dem obstructionism and general inability to come to a decision on anything.
So, one of the Scottish Tories most important jobs is limiting the damage the Lib Dems can wreak on Scotland.
I think we all agree that’s a worthy role.
58 It’s amazing how much of a knocking Kinnock still gets from Tories here. He really got under their skin. Surely objectively we can agree that he could turn out some great phrases and deserves alot of credit for turning the Labour party around.
61 If you’re talking about the centre of mass of Scottish Politics the Tories are to the far right of centre. The SNP have largely replaced them at the centre.
62 Of course the LibDems are in favour of the Union , it is Annabel Goldie who is toadying up to the SNP .
65 Dream on , the Conservatives will get 3 or fewer seats ib Scotland at the next GE .
64
I couldnt care how gay wheelie luggage looks, after the latest holiday, I’m fed up with lugging suitcases around. viva wheelie cases!
57…what purpose do the police serve?
@68:
Are you sure your prospective leaders all aggree with you?
So, your party will not support Alex Salmond’s referendum then?
69. You and seanT should get a man sized “trunki” - a web search will show you what I mean.
71 The LibDems will campaign for the Union , what will the Little England Conservative party campaign for ?
67. Kinnock represented everything about the Labour Party that most Tories loathe, with no redeeming features whatever. And this opinion was shared by the majority of the voters as well, as the 1987 and 1992 elections clearly showed.
@74:
That’s not what I asked. Will your party vote for the referendum?
74. The Union doesn’t seem to make your “priorities”
http://www.scotlibdems.org.uk/priorities
Also what does this mean.. the “Scottish state” ???
“Scottish Liberal Democrats : The Scottish state party of the federal Liberal Democrats. “
76 I expect it will , and what about the Little England party ?
I wonder if Comrade Nick supports retaining the DNA of innocent people wrongfully arrested for photographing the police behaving illegally?
@78:
Well now. That doesn’t sound very Unionist to me. That sounds decidedly secessionist.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 50.5% .. Others 4.5%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 154 .. Obama 247 .. Toss Up 137
Changes Since Last Projection - Colorado moves from Toss Up Obama to Toss Up McCain. Montana moves from Toss Up Obama to Toss Up McCain
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 241 .. Obama 297
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
Isn’t your ARSE BUTT moving towards McCain now?
@81:
Obama below the 300 mark!
Obama collapse continues unabated!
Democrats enter full scale panic mode!
Mac gonna grind Barry’s face into dirt!
80 Why is it secessionist to have a referendum and campaign for the Union ?
“If you’re talking about the centre of mass of Scottish Politics the Tories are to the far right of centre. The SNP have largely replaced them at the centre”
The great thing about the SNP is that it is such a broad church that it can plausibly claim to be in the centre - as well as on the pro-business right, the social democratic left, the traditional left and the hard left.
If the Scottish Lib Dems refuse to support a referendum on independence they will be wiped out in Scotland. How can a party with “Democratic” in their title deny the people the right to a vote on their consitutional future? And to think that I used to vote for this bunch of hypocrites.
What are they afraid of anyway? It’s likely that the Unionists will win the vote and no doubt do serious damage to SNP support in Scotland in the process.
Well, if you were elected as a Unionist party, like the Scottish Conservatives are, you are expected by your constituents to vote against any secessionist moves including referenda.
Of course, the idea that anybody elects a Lib Dem expecting them to honour any particular platform is clearly inexcusably naive to begin with, so it’s not surprising to see you masquerading as unionists and supporting the next step to independence.
79 - The Lib Dems oppose retaining DNA samples from people who are cleared of or not charged with offences. Cardiff MP, Jenny Willott, introduced a ten minute rule bill to that effect in June. I think the official Tory position is that there should be “safeguards” although what this means is unclear.
86, they refused one on Lisbon.
86. They dodged a referendum on Lisbon so I’d imagine it would be no problem for them to ditto in Scotland.
It’s probably fair to say that the only seat the Lib Dems can be sure of holding in Scotland next time is Kennedy’s. All the rest are up for grabs, assuming Campbell will be retiring.
87 - The Scottish Tories should support a referendum too: if they are that confident of their position, they shouldn’t be afraid to have it tested.
It will be interesting to see (i) how many parties at the next election support holding a referendum on independence in Scotland and (ii) how many parties in the next Parliament vote in favour of holding a referendum on independence in Scotland. I wonder if the overlap between (i) and (ii) will be closer this time than on referendum pledges at the last election.
87 - Defeat at a referendum would pretty much kill the issue for a generation. As it is, it will rumble on. Better, from a unionist perspective, to call Salmond’s bluff and have it now.
82 Antony. Yes. All the Toss Up states have recently moved toward McCain, some enough to tip them into his column. However the margins are very tight. Presently the 137 Toss Up EV’s fall as
McCain - Alaska .. Nevada .. Colorado .. Montana .. North Dakota .. Missouri .. Indiana .. North Carolina .. Florida.
Obama - Michigan .. Ohio .. Virginia.
@93:
And what if he wins? We can’t have the Tories blamed for destroying the UK. Hardly a good start to Dave’s 2010 government.
91 - I think if you see any prospect of seats like Edinburgh West, Orkney & Shetland and Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross changing hands then I would be happy to have a very large wager with you.
Jack, haven’t the last three polls shown McCain ahead in OH? I know your ARSE is just a bit of fun but Electoral Vote today showed McCain ahead, for the first time, with 274 electoral votes.
Michigan, too, has moved from a strong Obama lead to MoE. Michigan would be a hard one for McCain but if he flukes it somehow…
95. If he wins then it’s democracy in action! Why is that a problem?
Fortunately the Scottish position is not to retain innocents’ DNA.
Excuse me I mean RCP! EV is the English one.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10
Jack - Does your ARSE run entirely on the polls or do you amend accordingly? For example, The GOP will win Alaska and do so with some ease. Although statistically it may be a toss-up, the lack of Dem funding / campaigning should see it easily in McCain’s column.
97. Yes, McCain leads by small margins on RCP’s and 538’s averages for Ohio and Virginia.
91 as i said earlier delusional .
@98:
Because Tories are elected as Unionists. It would be an act of betrayal to stand as a Unionist and then support acts preparatory to secessionism.
From Iain Dales blog
http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com/
A Little Silliness to Brighten Your Morning
Iain Dale 9:42 AM
HOW TO START EACH DAY WITH A POSITIVE OUTLOOK
1. Open a new file in your computer.
2. Name it ‘Gordon Brown’.
3. Send it to the Recycle Bin.
4. Empty the Recycle Bin.
5. Your PC will ask you: ‘Do you really want to get rid of ‘Gordon Brown?’
6. Firmly Click ‘Yes’.
7. Feel better ….?
Labels: Gordon Brown
96. Who would have thought Gordon and Argyll would have produced the results they did last year, though? Based on those sorts of swings, I stand by my original comment - very few seats are safe.
Given that this seems to be Scottish day, what is the impact of the Competition commissions report on BAA. They recommend that BAA lose one of their Scottish airports. Isn’t transport a devolved matter? And what is the SNP reaction to the report. The Competition Commission does not opine on foreign airports run by BAA’s Spanish parent. Does the SNP resent its meddling in devolved matters?
94-I apprecaite there is a scientific method to your projection. But do you really think states like Alaska, Montana, North Dakota are really going to be “toss up states” come November?
Of those states listed I would only really expect come Novemeber (barring the unexpected) to be in the toss up category: Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Michigan (maybe). Maybe one or two others. Indiana only if Bayh is on the ticket and even then…
I am wondering if some on here (not necessarily Jack W) got carried away with Obamamania back in the early summer and so now the “swing back” seems exagerrated as some of the states switching back to McCain (ND, etc) were never really realistically in play.
@107:
I don’t see how things like competition really can be a devolved matter, what with Scotland and England having a single market.
@105:
107 - Enforcing the competition aspects of the Enterprise Act 2002, however, is not a devolved power and there is no Scottish Competition Commission. I am also not sure the SNP will have strong feelings on whether both Glasgow and Edinburgh Airports are owned by the Spanish or whether ownership is split. Just a hunch, like.
97 test. My ARSE “a bit of fun” !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You wretched troll !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ARSE (BUTT) is in the history of civilization the most sophisticated organ for election prediction known to man.
SOAMES BIG MAC allows ARSE to make the necessary adjustments to lesser polls. Yesterdays Civitas poll of North Carolina and SUSA’s poll of Indiana substantialy under sampled AA. This is the most constant demo in polling and yet they continue to make basic errors that ARSE (BUTT) does not.
104. So the Conservative Party position would be to deny the Scottish people a referendum on independence even if the overwhelming majority would support such a referendum? That doesn’t seem to square with their support of a Lisbon referendum.
Surely it would be more democratic to agree to a referendum on Scottish independence and then present the benefits of maintaining the Union during the referendum campaign?
@113:
The Conservative Party position is to honour the platform on which they were elected. This is also the SNP position.
Labour doesn’t know what its platform is, and the Lib Dems clearly don’t care.
59. If all his ancestors inhabited the same part of South Wales, I’m sure you’d be right. But given the inward migration to South Wales from the rest of the UK, at the time of the Industrial Revolution, he must have had ancestors from other parts.
Thinking it through though, given that Oxford and Cambridge were the only two Universities until the Nineteenth Century, and even plenty of upper and middle class people didn’t attend them, he may well be correct after all.
On the theme of genealogy, it’s my view that almost any white Briton alive today can claim descent from William the Conqueror. Other people say that’s rubbish (although the geneticist Steve Jones thinks at least 25% of the population can claim Plantagenet descent). What do you think?
115 Though if he had any Scottish ancestors, there’s a fair chance one of them would have attended a Scottish university.
Ah, so ARSE (having previously praised 538 because it’s pro-Obama) now “adjusts” polls to fit an Obama victory!
this explains its departure from both 538 and RCP.
Now the environment for Republicans in general almost precludes a McCain victory in the long run, but leading now he is.
Forgive this lese-majeste!
109 - Well you could in this case. The whole point is that airports have relatively small catchment areas so the key competitors to airports in Scotland are other airports in Scotland (although the CC fell short of defining separate geographic markets). The CC or EC can of course look at mergers affecting wider markets than their own territory - the US was very put out when the EC blocked the GE/Honeywell merger.
101 Antony. See 112. Alaska is a GOP basket case and has opened the door for Obama. He certainly has no shortage of funds, has opened offices in the state and if he takes the time to campaign there then we will know his team considers the state in play.
115. Are those kind of projections based on mathematical models of diffusion that ignore class barriers, marriage customs etc.?
Alaska is genuinely a toss/up leans McCain - nowhere near safe this time around.
Colorado is not voting McCain, given the godawful statement he made this week about renegotiating the Colorado Water Pact. There is nothing that anger Coloradoans more than the allocation of the resources of the Colorado River, and the idea that the Senator from Arizona wants to open up the allocation question again has been slammed by everyone in CO and NM. I would put Colorado in the Obama column right now.
I would say that Virginia leans Obama, and Ohio leans McCain. All other states probably lean McCain.
Michigan is a complete toss-up, and I’m not sure how it swings.
101 - The Democrats are pouring money into the Senate race in Alaska (which looks increasingly likely to be a big gain unless the GOP can persuade Stevens to fall on his sword next month).
108 peter2. It’s clear that Obama has moved the play board of battlegorund states this election and intends to keep as many in play for as long as possible. Obama has the resources to stretch McCain in all these red states and even if most revert to type keeping McCain on the back foot in a large range of red states is smart politics.
I’m not entirely sure the delay of announcing a running mate will affect Obama’s fortunes that adversely. After all, who in America will be voting for Obama on the strength of his running mate?
JackW:
Is there any chance of an ARSE permanent home on the web, where we can see all previous ARSE and BUTT outcomes, and plot lovely graphs and ting?
115 - If he was a Cardiff-lad, there almost certainly would have been ancestors from outside, but I would be suprised that much further up in the valleys. I remember a stat that in 1980, 75% of UK citizens lived within 3 miles of where they were born. That would have been much higher in isolated parts in 1880!
The William the Conqueror thing is possible, but again, I have my suspicions, given that the idea of mixed communities is so very recent. FActor in immigration over the last 1000 years, and it is much less likely. Samuel Huntingdon (of Clash of the Civilisations fame) questions the idea that America is fundamentally a melting pot of immigration, and estimates (not just mathematically) that about 50% of the US is descended from white northern European settlers who arrived prior to 1850.
124 - It creates an impression of being a ditherer if he draws it out too long, and risks a horrible anti-climax (I think Biden in particular would be an awful anti-climax after all the hype).
124 - Who in America will be voting Obama on the actual strength of Obama?
114. I do have some respect for the Scottish Tories for their consistency but I feel they are wasting a golden opportunity to establish themselves as the real oppostion to the SNP. A lost independence referendum would undoubtably weaken the SNP. The Scottish Labour Party is a discredited mess and the Scottish Lib Dems are finished after refusing the SNP coalition invitation (I bet they regret that now) and their close association with Labour.
Given Goldie’s decent performance as Tory leader in Scotland and the animosity of the Thatcher years on the wane, the Tories are perfectly placed to benefit from the pro-Union vote.
117 test. I’m a huge fan of 538 but not a slave to it. Nate has Ohio just in the McCain column and I have it just in Obama’s. If the evidence changes so will the projection.
ARSE (BUTT) has always made adjustments for inferior polls and the manificent SOAMES BIG MAC gives our prediction service to PBers a much more accurate reflection of the race and the opportunity to speculate and accumulate in the markets.
124 - I tend to agree, is Mike perhaps focusing on the frustration of an expectant gambler with tied-up funds instead of the general indifference of ordinary voters?
124-Consider, I am a political junkie, but how many of the old VP choices had I heard of before they were nominated:
2004: Edwards (not before 2004 primaries)
2000: Cheney (remember him being Bush I’s Secretary of Defence), Lieberman (no)
1996: Kemp (yes, remember him being one of top House Republicans in 1980s)
1992: Gore (yes, as a TN senator - and hsi wife being against offensive pop lyrics or some such non-issue)
1988: Quayle (no), Bentsen (no)
1984: Ferraro (no)
1980: too young! but who was VP? Muskie?
126. But didn’t the development of coal mining bring in large numbers of people to the South Wales Valleys from outside?
132 - The VP candidates in 1980 were Bush (Reagan) and Mondale (Carter).
Excitement factor
No excitement let-down: Biden, Bayh, Clinton, Clarke
No point dragging it out: Kaine, Sebelius, Richardson, Reed
Announcement worth waiting for: Gore, Jimmy Carter, Colin Powell, Warner, Napolitano, Michelle Obama, John Kerry, Bloomberg, Sam Nunn
121. Indeed it looks like McCain has singlehandedly lost Colorado this week as he lost Iowa before. Do you think his campaign managers want to shake him and say “stop insulting state’s sources of income and pride”. I wonder if you can add this to “the jobs won’t be coming back”.
133-And there would eb at least one Irish university (Trinity College). Also, he coudl well have had at least a continental European ascendant.
@136:
Linky?
125 Martin. If Jack W spent any more time on the internet than presently, it is my firm projection that Mrs Jack W would place the soft dangly fleshy collection of items south of my belly button in an industrial steam presser …. and push the red button with delight !!
ARSE is an exclusive service to PB …. No finer pollster on no finer political site !!
135 - Then by and large Barack Obama better hope that people are going to be unexcited. If he chooses some of the names in your “worth waiting for” list, he’d be showing terrible judgement.
136-I wonder if you can add this to “the jobs won’t be coming back”.
Straight from the Blair/Clinton school of politics. Lie, lie and lie again, so long as you get their vote? No wonder people express cynicism at politics.
As for Colorado, how many of the Dems jumping on this statement are those who in other circumstances (like Colorado not being in play) would be screaming to “share out” Colorado’s water resources), or even later in the campaign will be demanding solidarity (with those well off, poorer countries, etc) or for “those who can”, to help out in the name of “fairness” (higher taxes). Oh well, no one said politics was a clean business!!
139. Colorado Water:
http://www.denverpost.com/opinion/ci_10218277
Iowa Subsidies (he’s right on this one, but it’s bad politics to say it.)
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/08/06/mccain-opposes-farm-subsidies-popular-in-midwest/
Ohio Steel:
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2247270520080422
135 - Like it. Sounds about right. I would add John McCain, Uncle Sam and Big Bird off of Sesame Street to that last list though, and Morus and Jack W to the first one.
Could someone post the latest Biden prices on Betfair. I’m stuck behind the company firewall. Thanks.
120, 126. Mathematical models do, as you say, ignore class barriers etc. That said, male members of the upper classes had huge numbers of children out of wedlock, with servants etc., and it wasn’t at all uncommon for younger sons of younger sons to marry members of lower social classes. So, I imagine that the genes of a king who died 900 years ago could be spread quite widely.
133 - large, but only compared to the size, and much of that immiratin was internal to Wales.
The massive immigration to South Wales from outside as a result of coal was in the shipping of it, with Cardiff as the largest exporting port in the world for a while. The Irish built the docks, and you had places like Tiger Bay - prior to coal, Cardiff had been smaller than Merthyr Tydfil.
Even now, the valleys themselves are fairly homogenous Welsh - some Italian and Irish faces, but not that many compared to Cardiff or Newport.
All that said, this is not my area of expertise by a long way, so am happy to be contradicted if someone knows this better than I do. I suppose my point was that it would be genuinely astonishing if any of Kinnock’s ancestors had been to universty, rather than the opposite.
142. Maybe. Personally I couldn’t care less. Ask Ukpaul I’m sure he’ll condemn it.
141 - I think the throwback choices (Gore, Kerry and Carter) are just obviously not going to happen and Michelle was Morus’ joke. I am not sure Sam Nunn would count as massively exciting and should maybe be on the second list - a solid choice. Warner and Bloomberg would be quite exciting and vaguely realistic choices. I do not think he will risk anything other than a white man which rules out Napolitano and Powell although both have definite advantages.
142 - McCain is right on Iowa’s biofuel corn subsidies, he’s not entirely wrong on Ohio’s jobs, and he has a reasonably strong case on Colorado’s water.
What he’s missing is *how* to do these things. By just coming out and saying he thinks the water pact should be opened up, he is not only being politically injudicious, he’s actually making it harder to happen.
This was an issue that needs to be addressed and should have been handled sensitively - you don’t mention *any* changes to the pact without the support of Colorado and New Mexico governments, and you do it carefully. That’s the mistake he’s being punished for, not the policy itself.
149 - Michelle Obama was a joke (ish) and the throwbacks are silly long shots, though there has been talk of Kerry this week.
I’m becoming more pessimistic about his VP - I’ll be disappointed unless it’s Richardson or Warner, though I think Powell or Napolitano would really make this interesting.
150 Morus. We’ve not had a Colorado poll since McCain’s “water gaffe”. I’m actually sceptical it’ll make a discernable diference.
145 - Paddy Power offering a miserly 1.8 on Biden, Betfair a more realistic but still not tempting 2.54 (last matched 2.52). Little liquidity on Betfair as a lot of people have taken their money off the table for fear of losing it in a rush on announcement.
146. Certainly - I just wondered to what extent these models tried to capture those kinds of details.
147. I wonder if that’s correct, about the immigration being internal to Wales? Isn’t it more than likely that a lot of people moved in from the English border counties?
And even migration from within Wales would presumably have encompassed places like Powys and Monmouthshire which had a large English/Norman element.
Picking up on Sean’s point, the marcher lords, their retinues and the settlers who came with them must have spawned many children from the Norman period on. Kinnock could easily be descended from one of the Herberts or Mortimers.
154 Maybe so, but the mines were so predominantly Welsh speaking, I’d be a little surprised. I’ll do some research and get back to you.
[154] - To a certain extent I would have expected people in the border counties of England to be at least as likely to be drawn to growing industrial cities such as Birmingham and Manchester, than to the coal mines of the Welsh valleys.
154 - At what stage would the sons of noblemen have started to go to university?
Clarksongate Continues
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7571973.stm