Could this happen to Gordon if he’s not careful?
August 20th, 2008
Is this why a cabinet re-shuffle could be a minefield?
All of those old enough remember it - the speech to the commons by the deputy prime minister, Sir Geoffrey Howe, in November 1990 after he had resigned from Mrs. Thatcher’s cabinet. Click on the picture to watch.
This was probably the most dramatic event that has been seen on TV from the Commons since the cameras were allowed in during the 1980s. For what Howe said that day and the quiet forcefulness of his speech made Mrs. Thatcher’s position untenable. It wasn’t long afterwards that she stepped down after not allowing her name to go forward into the second ballot. The Thatcher days were over.
Fast forward to 2008 and is there a danger that with Labour in the state it is that one of the ministers who gets moved, demoted or sacked in a cabinet re-shuffle could do a Geoffrey Howe?
So far, with the exception of David Miliband’s Guardian article, the cabinet has appeared fairly united, in public at least, about the current situation.
The Labour-leaning blogger, Paul Linford, reckons that Alistair Darling could be a problem. He’s been loyal to Gordon for so long and it wasn’t him that created the tax structure that led to the 10% tax band debacle.
There are, obviously, others but the lesson from the Tories in November 1990 is that anything could happen.Who would have thought then that it would be Sir Geoffrey Howe that finally plunged the dagger in?
Mike Smithson
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Just as long as it’s something bad, I hope it does happen to him.
From last thread — There’s a world of difference, emotionally, between brother and half-brother, especially when it’s the father providing the connection.
(Ask Minamoto Yoshitsune of Japan how much concern his half-brother Yoritomo showed for him…)
Darling makes Geoffrey “dead sheep” Howe look like a potitical collossus.
For Brown it will be like being savaged by a dead marmot.
2. That’s a good point. Is there anyone in the cabinet who has any gravitas or any reputation sufficient to cause him problems? He’s surrounded himself with pygmies.
BannedHorse from the last thread: “There’s a world of difference, emotionally, between brother and half-brother, especially when it’s the father providing the connection.”
?????
Now there’s some interesting sociology for you!
Jack Straw would probably have to be the Howe character for a similar event. Straw has shown disloyalty in the past such as the manipulation of media one weekend a few weeks ago. Remember the Photo call he arranged and ‘facial look’ of surprise when he saw the TV camaras taking footage of him posing for the camras.
David Miliband could not deliver such a speech and i doubt Darling could either.
Difference is, of course, we now know that Thatcher was right and that Howe was a disgraceful treacherous weasel.
I can’t imagine any situation in which Gordon would be right about something, even in hindsight.
Is Geoffrey How related to Doctor Who?
Typo alert Mike……
Maybe the RNC could start a fundraising campaign for Obama’s brother?
There is no Hezza on the backbenchers either, the Lawson/ Howe resignations did have the prospect of invigorating the King over the Water. There is not a Labour King over the Water at this time.
4- If your half-brother is a screw-up who inflicted his circumstances on himself, like Bill Clinton’s half-brother Roger, I would definitely not expect any favors to be done for him. But if your half-brother is a guy who seems to be attempting to survive on $1/day in a nightmarish hellhole, I would think you might send him a few bucks by Western Union so he can at least live in something above the level of abject squalor.
“This was probably the most dramatic event that has been seen on TV from the Commons since the cameras were allowed in during the 1980s.”
I remember it well, and even after 18 years it still has a dramatic effect on you. Can you imagine the impact now with the Internet and 24 hour rolling news channels?
I also agree that there is no politician in the cabinet who could match the impact of Darling if he made a similar resignation speech in the HoC’s. If he did, Brown would be toast.
10. Yes I agree with that - But should Bill not have got his brother into rehab? Perhaps he did?
Maybe if Obama becomes US. President he will get a green card for his half Bro?
1. I have a half brother, via my dad, to whom I am VERY close. In fact I get on with him better than I do my FULL sister.
So it just depends, I think.
OT very unpleasant news from Spain. Rumours of terrorism, but I think they are just rumours.
4 — Suppose your father divorces your mother to marry another woman. You’re saying the emotional links (if any) between you and the sons he might have with her are the equal of those with your brother(s)?!
‘Salmond unveils package to boost Scottish economy’
“Asked by a member of the audience if he could effect a second “political earthquake” by winning the upcoming Glenrothes by-election in the same way as he did in Glasgow East, Salmond quoted the golfer Gary Player, who, when told he was lucky to have won a match, replied that the more he practised the luckier he got. “In Central Fife I can promise you the SNP will be practising hard and will be taking nothing for granted and we will be working as hard, if not harder than we worked in Glasgow East,” Salmond said. “I think the folk in Glasgow East didn’t make a mistake. They knew what they were doing.”
… he said he did have a message for the prime minister. “Gordon does not have his problems to seek,” he said. “I have two pieces of advice. Change his policies and cheer up, for God’s sake.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/aug/20/scotland.snp
Straw could do it. I think that Brown’s knifing would more likely happen in a committee room full of weirdos - think John Redwood’s campaign kick-off.
Straw could do it. I think that Brown’s knifing would more likely happen in a committee room full of weirdos - think John Redwood’s campaign kick-off.
The difference is that Howe wasn’t sacked and was demoted rather earlier. If Brown sacks somebody it would be easier to brush off as sour grapes. A risk certainly but more of creating a Lamont than a Howe.
About —> 538.com — the Scenario Analysis section
———
In the last thread, I wrote this:
According to 5328.com, Obama has less than 18% chances of winning the Elections if he loses Ohio.
Then, poster called JAMES wrote and rewrote and rewrote that I was “mischaracterising what the 538 figures show”.
He said the figures do not “show your prospects if a certain event happens”.
Now, the section is titled SCENARIO ANALYSIS, and under the saiud title, there is a list of event, with what appears to my brain to be prospects…
Am I wrong? I’d very much like to know…
It is a simulation, in my understanding, and Obama wins only 18% percent of the time he happens to lose Ohio.
So how can my “characterization” of the figures be wrong?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
One difference would be that Thatcher sat there and listened, as did Major when Lamont had his whinge. Brown wouldn’t. He’d be out of the Chamber quicker than Usain Bolt. That’s if he hadn’t managed to get his friend, the Speaker, to ignore the request to make a resignation statement.
15. Stuart, Scotland will perish and die if it was independent. The Economy of the UK, which Scotland is a part is already over it’s head in debt. You are really saying more public spending in scotland which IIRC accounts for over 50% of DGDP is the way forward
SNP figures just don’t add up and Shetlands oil is not going to help you!
8, that would be exactly the kind of sick stunt that the GOP would do. Help the people it suits you to help and leave everyone else to the mercy of the free market.
6. Well we all know who Howe was acting on behalf of, don’t we? The same organisation that has a large number of current MPs, members of the Lords and political commentators in its pocket.
This is absolutely my assessment, as repeatedly stated on these pages, eg:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/08/the-money-goes-on-gordon-going/ (post 11)
And I have fingered Alistair Darling for the job too:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/02/will-this-man-wield-the-knife/ (post 33)
Any news on what price Gordon is getting for all that gold our guys and gals are bringing home from China? It’ll be confiscated by the Revenue the moment they land - as a windfall tax, of course.
The thing is, if Gordon wants to sack Darling, he has to convince some other poor sap to willingly put their neck on the line at the treasury.
Which even slightly ambitious hack is going to want to spend the next 18 months dealing with a recession of Gordon’s making, and taking the blame? Dealing with the fallout of Gordon’s making from Northern Rock and taking the blame? Dealing with the massive shortfall and spiralling public debt of Gordon’s making taking the blame? Dealing with the fallout from Gordon’s tax credit stupidity and taking the blame?
It would probably have to be somebody either clinically insane, or somebody who’s so fiercely loyal to Tractor Production Figures they don’t mind that their political career will be over.
Is there anybody in the fuhrerbunker that deranged?
O/T - This website is a tad insidious.
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article4573264.ece
23. The lizards ?
19 - See 381 of the last thread.
26. Des Browne.
Hutton, Darling, Straw or Hoon are the only ones with the gravitas to give this sort of wounding speech.
Hoon is reputedly being bribed with Mandelson’s job, Straw is looking to pick up the pieces if the party wants to stabilise itself before an election, so Hutton or Darling it is.
The latter would be more powerful (the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and because it would be as out of character as it was for Howe), but I think the former is more likely, if he can see where it gets Labour (ie a Blairite PM).
@27:
I think *all* salaries should be a matter of public record. The absurd taboo we have about wealth is the insidious and dangerous thing.
26. Brown should give the job to Miliband - what better way of sinking his rival without trace given the dire trajectory of the economy? If Miliband refuses, he can be sacked for showing a lack of willingness to help the team when it is in trouble.
Not that I suspect for one moment Brown has the political sense to do this.
@33:
Milliband would refuse it.
32. Do you want to know how much is in everyone’s bank account too?
26
You ignore ability.
The only one in the Cabinet with the brains for the job is Ed Balls…
(and I include Darling in my assessment:-)
@35:
That doesn’t have any of the advantages of forcing all firms to fully disclose salaries.
34. Of oourse - and then Brown could fire him for cowardice and lack of committment to the Labour cause.
But the fact that he hasn’t already booted him out despite blatant disloyalty and media showboating suggests I am being rather unrealistic, doesn’t it?
This is a ‘keeper’
“Dream on , the Conservatives will get 3 or fewer seats ib Scotland at the next GE.”
by Mark Senior August 20th, 2008 at 9:58 am
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/20/could-obama-be-making-the-gordon-brown-mistake/#comment-748879
I really dont think anything would happen if a cabinet minister resigned. The country stopped listening to Labour a long time ago and everyone is just waiting to vote them out. Does anyone really care who is PM for the last 20 months of a dead government?
That video offers some wonderful raves from the grave: the Hard ECU and David Howell MP. The former I’d forgotten all about; the latter I’ve no recollection of whatsoever.
@38:
And what do you think would happen if Brown tried to sack Milliband?
22- Yeah, it would be really sick to see anyone try to help Obama’s little bro…
32 - What an absurd comment. It is the equivalent of nudists saying clothes should be illegal. You do it if you want to but don’t force me to do the same!
It would also be anticompetitive and would tend to drive down wages as employers would have full visibility of a major cost and would come together at a similar level.
15.‘Salmond unveils package to boost Scottish economy’ Great headline but the detail did not live up to the billing. Salmond is walking a political tightrope when it comes to putting forward a positive slant on today’s economic difficulties, he must be careful to manage expectations of what his administration can achieve.
28. Full title is Lisbon Lizards.
Brown is safe from anyone’s knife as he’s in the game.
And this one too:
“Will your party vote for the [Scottish independence] referendum?”
by Martin Coxall August 20th, 2008 at 10:04 am
“I expect it will , and what about the Little England party ?”
by Mark Senior August 20th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Ho ho. All brotherly love in the Unionist camp… as usual!
20.”One difference would be that Thatcher sat there and listened, as did Major when Lamont had his whinge. Brown wouldn’t.”
It would be interesting to see how Brown handled such a situation.
…haven’t we had this exact thread before?
@44:
On the contrary, it would be fully competitive.
In order for their to be an efficient market in salaries, all participants need as much information as possible.
Essentially, the system as currently structured relies on deceit, not information, and is a distortional anti-market.
Fully salary visibility allows removing salary discrimination, minimum-wage violations and any number of other advantages large and small.
32- It seems that salaries my already be public in Italy. There was some confusion when the outgoing socialist administration there briefly made everyone’s earnings publicly available on the internet this spring, but then claimed it was no big deal since earnings information is already public, although hitherto unavailable on the internet.
@45:
HAHAHAHAHA
42. Presumably that would trigger other resignations. But if he can’t remove such a blatantly disloyal minister, then he is a complete lame duck, isn’t he? A zombie PM.
That’s really the point I’m trying to make. A leader with any real authority would already have acted, or at least be preparing to shaft such a rival in the way I suggested.
@47:
I think we’ve fully established that the Lib Dems are not in the Unionist camp.
They come round for tea occasionally, but they don’t stay for long.
50 - I totally disagree. Full disclosure of salaries would not make things competitive but the reverse. It would encourage firms to rigidly price the job at hand. There would be no pricing of individual candidates. In my current job my salary is banded but the actual level is determined by the skillsets and value I bring to the role.
Mark Senior - if you are up for a bet, I will take 50 pounds on the Tories getting 4 or more seats in Scotland at the next GE.
12- Sorry Martin, it would be entirely inappropriate for Barack to finesse a green card for his brother after becoming President. Not only would this have the appearance of abuse of power but is also, as suggested on the previous thread, completely contrary to the spirit of socialism, which aims to replace family with government in as many ways as possible. Just look at Joe Stalin, who marched his son off to fight the Nazis. After his son was captured and placed in a Nazi prisoner of war camp, Stalin refused an offer of a prisoner exchange that would have allowed his son to return to the Soviet Union. He ended up dying in a POW camp. There is no family, there is only the state: now THAT’S socialism!
50 - Now I’ve seen it all, Martin Coxall taking up a Polly Toynbee idea:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2006/apr/21/comment.politics1
54 No you have not established that at sll , you cannot even refute the Little England stance of many in your party . You are cosying up to the SNP and would sell the Union for a small advantage in Westminster .
I really dont know why you are all wasting so much energy debating the future of this Labour Government. The Cabinet is full of lightweight pygmies who hven’t got the stature among them of Sir Geoffrey Howe’s little finger.
They will huff and puff and Brown will spout tractor statistics and do nothing while the economy sinks and hundreds of thousands face financial ruin. Then they will wring their hands and say its someone else’s fault and look and sound stupid until in June 2010 the electorate gets the chance to put them out of their collective misery.
Even with the likely by-elections and with even a couple of defections, we will neve have the parliamentary arithmetic to see Brown lose a No Confidence vote.
If only Kate Hoey would defect and become DC’s Olympics and Sports Minister. She would be a superb addition to the Tory front bench. I hope the people of Vauxhall realise they have one of the few CLP with some stature about her. The comparison to the Home Secretary who always looks as though she has borrowed someone else’s clothes 2 sizes too small for her and someone else’s speech written 10 years ago makes Hoey sound like a Titan in comparison.
O/T - How on earth was a 14 year old still standing let alone causing cruelty to fluffy bunnies after 4 bottles of wine? I wouldn’t be able to stand up if I’d drunk that much and I’m a seasoned drinker
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/7572705.stm
@58:
I know. Shocking, isn’t it? Thing is she’s right, but for entirely wrong reasons. So I still feel justified.
(A few threads ago) Variation on a theme:
Gold medals in the 2008 Olympics according to Orwell’s boundaries
(so far, according to Ceefax, subject to errors of addition)
Eurasia 74
Eastasia 67
Oceania 67
Disputed territories 8
I counted Zimbabwe as part of Oceania, and Indonesia as part of Eastasia. Otherwise Africa is in the Disputed Middle.
60- Speaking of defections, when is the last time an MP defected to the Conservatives? How about the last Labour defection to the Tories? Why are defections in that direction so much more rare than defections the other way? This kind of event seems about as common as Tory by-election gains were pre-Crewe.
@55:
There absolutely would be pricing of individual candidates. And for the first time, a person’s worth would be a matter of record, which would *encourage* excellence.
As far as I can see, there’s no downside to the idea.
We shouldn’t forget, that the, ‘Real Reason’ for Howe’s speech was Europe.
The tragedy is–and it is for me personally, for my party, for our whole people and for my right hon. Friend herself, a very real tragedy–that the Prime Minister’s perceived attitude towards Europe is running increasingly serious risks for the future of our nation. It risks minimising our influence and maximising our chances of being once again shut out. We have paid heavily in the past for late starts and squandered opportunities in Europe. We dare not let that happen again. If we detach ourselves completely, as a party or a nation, from the middle ground of Europe, the effects will be incalculable and very hard ever to correct.
That is the difference, between the Thatcher’s position and Brown’s, there was an ideological rift which placed Howe on one side and Thatcher on the other.
Howe and those who supported him felt that Thatcher had to be removed before she did any more damage to the UK’s relationship with Europe.
If the Labour party were to dispatch Brown, it would be for reasons of his personality rather than his policies. Getting rid of someone because you don’t think they’ll give you an election victory, rather than a fundemental belief is a little more difficult.
It may happen, but odds are about evens.
24.Antifrank, Guido had a great Friday caption photo of Darling, Straw and Hoon. It illustrates the only team of cabinet ministers who could do the job, and do it well. I think that picture will at some point get another outing.
31. I agree with that.
60: The tractor statistics may be great, but apparently the official housing sales statistics don’t meet with government approval (they are far too shockingly dire) and so they are being withdrawn for entirely spurious reasons
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7572603.stm
Does anyone believe that this is for any reason other than to fiddle the figures?! Worryingly Orwellian.
64 - Defections follow the political currents, so your observation about Tory by-election gains and defections is not a coincidence. The tide has turned rightwards only in the last couple of years. I wouldn’t be particularly surprised if in the next year or so one or two on the right of the Labour party jumped ship for the Tories, or even the odd Lib Dem.
If the electorate had its way Brown’s removal would be nailed on.
Labour politicians with gravitas…there arent any, none who could remove Brown a la Geoffrey Howe. The only way methinks , given how gutless the cabinet is, would be for the donors to refuse to cough up until Brown was iced. That might be enough?.
63 BBC reports that Her Majesty’s Realms and Dominions have garnered 99 medals so far making the existing British Empire (the empire that dares not speak its name) top of the medal table.
70. Timing is everything with these things, of course.
64. Would you have to go back all the way to Reg Prentice? There’s probably somebody I’ve forgotten. There was that MP (his name momentarily escapes me) who defected from Labour to the SDP, and then later became a Tory MP, but he wasn’t actually in parliament when he made the second switch.
60: ‘The Cabinet is full of lightweight pygmies who hven’t got the stature among them of Sir Geoffrey Howe’s little finger.’
Yes, Blair and Brown sucked out Labour’s soul. There’s nothing there now. With the exception of a few curious characters indulging in their old sixth-form pro-Kremlin fantasies (v. Nick Brown’s article in today’s Guardian) Labour is an otiose thing. Few will lament its passing.
74. John Horam is the name, I think.
65 - The downside being that you couldn’t keep your income secret. Many people do not want to reveal to others what they earn and they should have that right.
74
Twas he
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Horam
@72:
She’s King of Queens.
Getting back to the mmain thread: Howe was really an old fashion ‘One Nation’ tory, pro european like Heath, and detested having to work with and under Maggie.
I cant see anyone standing up to Brown from the PLP except perhaps, surprise, surprise, Alistair Darling, who must have been quietly fuming having to take the flak from the Great Leader’s policies.
But it takes real hatred to do what Howe did to Thatcher. Has anyone got he ball’s in labour’s front bench, and remember they’ve got to resign alone first?
@77:
This is not about individuals, this is about employers.
What legitimate reasons would a person have for keeping their salary of the public record?
Well, it does look as though Brown and what remains of his group of supporters have begun their fightback. In case anyone hasn’t noticed, we’ve had:
- Yvette Cooper attacking Cameron’s economics, in a woefully poor article in the Guardian. (Note for Nick Palmer: Although I’m a Conservative, even I could do a MUCH better job than this. Naturally you’d have to pay my usual fees, plus cover any losses on my spread bet, plus pay a special ‘abandon my principles’ surcharge, and of course pay cash in advance, given the state of the Labour Party’s finances. Let me know if the party would like to take up this magnanimous offer.);
- The infamous Clarkson video;
- Nick Brown trying to attack Cameron’s visit to Georgia, or possibly Miliband’s;
- Rumours of the free laptops ‘bribe-them-with-their-own-money’ wheeze.
It has to be said that so far it doesn’t look like much. But maybe Brown is trying. In which case, don’t bet on him going anytime soon.
81 - What legitimate reason would a person have to know the salary details of strangers? Why are you so willing to encroach on people’s privacy?
81. Who are you to decide what a legitimate reason is? Everything should be private unless there is a pressing public need to know. It’s my life, not the state’s, not the economy’s.
81 “What legitimate reasons would a person have for keeping their salary off the public record?”
Not wanting to be inundated with calls from car salesmen and financial advisors?
70- Do you think there is any incentive for centrist or right-leaning Labour MP’s to switch parties in order to attempt to save their careers by running for the same constituency, or another constituency, as a Tory in the next election? This sort of maneuvering is rare but not unheard-of in the U.S., but I was just wondering if you see this in the U.K.
81 - Frankly what I earn is between me and my employer, it is none of anyone elses business.
83. Couriosity!
82. Unfortunately, the free laptop idea sounds quite similar to that scheme to send laptops to third world children. I don’t think that reflects too well on the state of the poor in the UK after 10 years of the socialist party.
@83:
I repeat, this is not about individuals, this about firms. This is about removing their power to discriminate and manipulate through secrecy surrounding salaries.
This is not a matter of privacy, since this is about when you’re *at work*, working in an effectively public place, and where you have no reasonable expectation of privacy.
But it’s a utilitarian consideration: the massive societal advantages to this scheme are many when compared to the one drawback: people whining because you’re stepping on their class-system-rooted taboo about wealth.
97- In this era of rampant identity theft, I don’t want strangers knowing anything more about my finances than absolutely necessary. If this information is public, who’s to say the government won’t accidentally publish additional information while they’re at it? Even if not, this information could help identity thieves focus their efforts on more promising individuals. Keep it secret!
86. Most of the more obvious candidates philosophically speaking are in safe seats already. More likely to defect after a GE rather than before.
So it would be more likely to be a careerist in a more marginal seat that would try this. But there would be a real problem with such a person getting accepted, with a Tory candidate already having been selected and the local Tory party likely to be far from welcoming, to say the least.
@87:
That’s how it is, that’s not how it should be.
“He who wields the knife does not wear the crown”. Why didn’t Howe stab Maggie himself, instead of getting Tarzan to do it?
86 - Switching allegiance and constituency at the next election is known - David Cameron inherited his safe Conservative seat from Shaun Woodward, who defected to Labour, took a seat in St Helens (which is a long way from Witney, his previous seat) and is now Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
91- whoops, that should be “87,” not “97.”
All this nonsense about Obama losing Ohio… Sporting have dropped their EC seats price on Obama by a further point to buyable at 302. It just gets better and better…
@91:
Government? All I’m saying is that within any given firm, HR should be required to publish all salary details. Everyone should know how much their colleagues earn, and should expect to have their salary known by their colleagues in turn.
86: ‘…centrist or right-leaning Labour MP’s…’
I doubt there are any. Yes, a number pretended to be that way inclined when Blair was about, but now he’s gone there’s no point keeping up the pretence, as we’re seeing by the day.
90 - You are sounding incredibly statist. Individuals matter, I think you would struggle to find anyone who would want the full details of their remuneration made public.
@100:
It’s a taboo, and a silly one class-based remnant at that.
What legitimate reason would you have for keeping your salary secret?
98. Why?
@102:
See upthread. The societal benefits massively outweigh the non-disadvantages which only arise from a silly class taboo.
New PPP poll for Missouri :
McCain 50% .. Obama 40%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_820.pdf
98 - No way, every member of a team would have to be paid the same rate or you would have companies drowning in litigation and every team member may be bringing something different to the team and so deserve a different benefit package.
103- How much do you make?
100 - Actually, Martin’s idea is surely going to happen soon. The government’s preferred publication method is via a laptop left on a train.
107- But it is refreshing to see a government that practices total disclosure.
101 - It is nobody else’s business what I earn. Why would they need to know, what benefit would it have to anyone.
@105:
Yes! The threat of litigation would ensure that firms got their salary structures fair and correct pretty sharpish. Suddenly, all those big firms that mysteriously pay all their women 40% less than their men for the same jobs would be called to account.
That’s a huge plus, and I’m glad you mentioned it. Nowhere for discriminating firms to hide.
can’t link from mobile but nro has strong indication that its Kaine - line of succession in VA being discussed - go to the Campaign Spot blog
106/103- You can give me the figure in dollars or pounds, I’ll do the conversion.
@109:
Am I repeating myself? I’ve already told you several times why, yet your only comeback is to mumble question begging about it being “nobody’s business”.
The fact is, you don’t seem to have any rational arguments against it, you’re just reacting emotionally to a silly taboo that’s a throwback of the class system.
@112:
I’m not on a salary. I’m self-employed.
New Cronkite/Channel9 poll for Arizona :
McCain 40% .. Obama 30% .. Nader 2% .. Barr >1%
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2008/08/20/20080820McCainpoll0820.html
111- That’s a mild surprise if true. Not the best choice, not the worst choice. I had him 3rd on my list.
110 - Yes but there are legitimate reasons sometimes for paying two people differently for doing similar but non-identical jobs. The nuances would escape any tribunal. I know that I don’t earn what colleagues earn even though superficially they do a similar job, am I bothered? Not in the slightest. I earn sufficient to keep me happy, when that changes I will renegotiate in reference to my skills and talents not my colleagues skills and talents! If that fails I will go elsewhere.
114. Yeah, but how much do you earn?
114- That’s an artful dodge!
Shoot to kill?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7571688.stm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shoot-to-kill_policy_in_Northern_Ireland
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article547464.ece
@119:
Thanks. I can tell you how much my company will gross this year, ~120K GBP. How much I earn, I really have no idea until my accountant tells me. I’ll pay myself a dividend in September, but I have no idea how much he’ll let me have.
Obama drops a further point on the EC spreads…
32/44/50
In Norway not only are all saleries fully disclosed but I can go on the internet and see right now how much I and everyone I work with or anyone in the country earned and how much tax they paid. It is all a matter of public record online.
Over here it is accepted as normal and certainly doesn’t end up driving salaries down. Just the reverse in fact.
123 “Salaries” even
121- OK, I’ll stop torturing you about it! I’ll be the last person on here volunteering salary information.
@117:
Mr Burdett, it sounds to me like you’re *very* bothered. I assume you’re worried because you earn more than your colleagues and worry about having to meet their envious gazes?
Learn to embrace that feeling of smug superiority.
116 after Clinton he’s the best pick IMO, if he delivers VA. If he’s picked do Portman’s chances go up?
CNN says Obama may pull a Cheney and pick Caroline Kennedy as his Veep choice :
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/20/caroline-kennedy-floated-for-vp/
104. Hi Jack. This poll from Missouri:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Missouri_820.pdf
confirms my claim that Obama will not get to the White House. White voters will not vote for a black president. (I’m not being racist, just stating a fact).
Thats why McCain will win in November, especially if he picks a young go getting running mate.
The issue of other people’s salaries is of special interest to me today, as today is the day (there is one every six months) when the whole company got told about their pay rises, and many people were told whether they were being promoted or not (if they had been put forward for it).
Everyone is now wasting the day gossiping about who got what, who made Partner, who is happy or unhappy, and who has been essentially asked to leave (we are an ‘up or out’ company - you get two/three chances at being promoted - if you don’t make it the third time, you are expected to resign). We lose up to a sixth of our people every year this way. As you can imagine, today would be very different if the company just published everybody’s new remuneration package on the intranet, let alone publically.
Considering the economic downturn, today could have been worse, but it wasn’t great. I wasn’t eligible for promotion, because I only got promoted in March, so for me, it was all about the pay rise. Last March was about 35%, whereas this September was only 8%, although that is largely a function of not coming as high-up in my new band as I did in my old band (when I got promoted). Now I’m up against the people who have been at my level for a couple of years (I was in the second/third quartile I think).
I’ll let you decide whether these pay increases are justified by the fact that loads of people get fired, and the way in which this process shapes performance. Most of the senior guys are targetted on commercial performance, rather than operational, so I know many of them were stuck at a 1% pay increase.
You could make all of this more public, but I suspect within a company, most people know it anyway.
127- I suspect that McCain has already made his decision, but of course won’t reveal that for fear of tipping his hand earlier than he’d like. If McCain were a calculating political strategist like most of us here are inclined to be, I might think otherwise, but I’m guessing his decision will be unaffected by Obama’s choice.
Whoops-a-daisy!
“The Ulster Unionist Party is to move out of its headquarters in east Belfast.
It is understood the party will relocate to party leader Sir Reg Empey’s much smaller office, at least on a temporary basis.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/northern_ireland_politics/7563507.stm
Now we know why they want to merge with the GB Tories: they are skint.
I wonder when the Scottish Labour Party will be moving out of John Smith House and decamping to Iain Gray’s garden shed?
@130:
As it happens, I think that “on the intranet” is public enough. There’s less of an argument for it to be any more public than that, though such data would seep out, of course.
@130:
Oh, and Morus. Your firm sounds dreadful. Like the Peter Principle in action!
128 - The day Barack Obama starts taking Michael Moore’s advice is the day I start campaigning for John McCain. That said, Obama-Kennedy sounds pretty good!
The Virginia line of succession rumours could equally apply to Kaine taking over a Senate seat election (ie the VP could be Webb or Warner).
134 - Yes, everyone is promoted to just above their competencies (or tolerance for the company) but if they aren’t still improving and meeting expectations, they are gone within 6 months.
That’s the only way the Peter Principle etc can work - high, managed attrition.
I don’t actually agree with the Norwegian system but understadn why the government like it. It appears to be the result of the idea that everyone will look up their neighbours earnings and tax and will shop them if they see they are clearly underdeclaring their earnings. Jan can probably shed a better light on this.
All I know is the novelty wears off very quickly.
Only twice since the second world war has a Democrat gained over 50% of the vote in Missouri, LBJ in his 1964 whitewash and Carter in 1976 who gained 50.09%.
“Gay rights champion and former MP Leo Abse has died at the age of 91, according to a family friend.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/7572163.stm
128- To be accurate, CNN isn’t making a prediction but is merely repeating the fact that Moore has encouraged Obama to select Kennedy.
@136:
Generally speaking, the best way to ameliorate the Peter Principle is to establish a caste system.
But then, you’re in a class of your own, Morus…
136- If you want a better raise next time, you’d better stop wasting your precious time on silly gambling blogs and get serious about your career.
Sad news about Leo Abse. RIP.
138. Quite. So let’s focus on the states that Obama needs to win - this still give him around 310-320 EC votes by my reckoning, assuming he holds all the Kerry states. So, Sporting’s buy at 301 looks incredibly tempting with minimal downside?
139. I was surprised when I read that earlier because I thought he was dead already. For some reason I tend to confuse him with Ian Mikardo.
Leo Abse:
“An obsession with the question of punishment of homosexuals has hitherto prompted us to avoid the real challenge of preventing little boys from growing up to be adult homosexuals. Surely, what we should be preoccupied with is the question of how we can, if it is possible, reduce the number of faulty males in the community.”
re 13 why whenever there’s a plane crash are their rumours of terrorism? Planes have always crashed and always will without any terrorism being involved; there’s a whole multitude of things which can go wrong which is why there’ll be a thorough investigation.
Is it just to put the suspicion is our minds so that when the next piece of repressive legislation is unveiled we might just subliminally think, oh yes that Madrid crash was terrorist incident wasn’t it, new law very good idea.
129 weathercock. The Missouri poll is good for mcCain and tips the state out of ARSE (BUTT) Toss Up status into Likely McCain.
Many polls between now and November …. and Remember the Jack W Base Index for the contest !!
(OT) When we were discussing flags and anthems the other day I forgot to mention this one:
http://www.geographic.org/flags/new1/saami_flags.html
146. Blimey! I thought his motives were more open-minded than that.
147. Perhaps because crashes due to technical faults are less likely than 20 years ago, and terrorist attacks are more likely
142 - I am changing career soon enough, and won’t be with the company next time I’m eligible for promotion! The rate I’m taxed, all pay rises merge into a negligable figure anyway, so why not spend my time on here?!
re 61 I doubt you’d still be breathing after that amount of alcohol.
“What legitimate reason would you have for keeping your salary secret?”
Plenty. Not having to cope with jealous colleagues who think your earnings are unfair; not being harassed by salesmen, charities, poorer relatives and friends etc. who think it’s a really good idea that you should part with some of your money, once they find out what you’re earning; not having to risk being a victim of crime, after your details are accessed by someone who thinks you’re clearly rich enough to be worth burgling; not having a creditor call in an overdraft if he thinks you’re not earning enough to service it; not being sued by an ex-spouse once they find out you’re earning much more than they ever thought you were, etc. etc.
For an employer, not having to cope with staff who think it really unfair that X is earning more than, or the same as, they do; not having to put up with strike action from such employees, and not having to put up with litigation from such employees.
I’m sorry to say it, but the idea is hare-brained.
151- Your logic seems rock solid to me! Glad to hear there’s no rational basis for you to be leaving PB any time soon.
So much for Jacqui Smith talking tough. The morons at the Home office gave him a new passport. You couldnt make it up.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23541442-details/Glitter+left+free+to+travel+world+after+blundering+Home+Office+gives+him+new+passport/article.do
153,
funnily enough none of which appears to be a problem in Norway.
Actually I agree with you. I just can’t quite square the circle as to why it works here withouot all the problems one would naturally think would develop such as you ahve listed.
Possibly, because the inhabitants of a very tight-knit, ethnically homogeneous, egalitarian society have a different atttitude than the inhabitants of a very different society.
153 - Come to think of it, is there any legal impediment to a UK company divulging all of its employees’ salaries (internally if preferred), if that’s what employees want and new joiners sign up to the arrangement? It doesn’t require government intervention. Let market forces test the idea!
155.That is shocking!
156- In a country that is one of the wealthiest per capita on Earth but yet people still routinely take their modest matpakke (cold lunch) to work, I guess I’m not too surprised that people aren’t that concerned with how much they’re making compared to their countrymen.
On the subject of the world’s least inspiring flags, there was almost a diplomatic incident at the world rowing championships at Eton in 2006 between Poland and Indonesia until it was realized that they were flying one of their flags the wrong way up. It’s a bit tricky telling the Chadians and Romanians apart now as well.
I think it’s hilarious how the VP frenzy now has a lot of serious news outlets quoting “credible information” that it’s Biden. Or Kaine. Or Kennedy. Or someone else.
I heard it’s Santa Claus. Although he won’t help with the didn’t-get-a-pony-when-kid demographic.
162- It seems they’re just profiting from the last-minute hysteria by printing anything they hear and knowing they are guaranteed lots of hits.
ON TOPIC - watch that video again - the BBC News music used to be significantly better than it is now.
This is a (long video) showing the decline from the mid 1980s to the early 1990s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QYqHkIxerg
And this is Bill Bailey’s classic take on News 24 and CBS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnVjxUJiVOI&feature=related
50 - Transparent markets aren’t necessarily more competitive. To explain:
Moving away from the jobs scenario briefly, there is a bigger incentive for a firm to cut prices if it knows it can sustain that for a while and build market share before anyone notices. If you know that everyone else will follow your price move immediately, you are just losing margin without gaining anything.
It is true that there is a countervailing point. Non-transparent prices may make it hard for customers to know whether they are really getting a “good deal”.
To cut a long story a bit shorter, in markets where customers are very knowledgable about the product and/or the value is so much it is worth doing some research, lack of transparency tends to work for greater competition. An electronics manufacturer will usually be pretty quiet about its input costs and will insist its supplier is too - it knows that a non-transparent market is good for them in terms of getting a competitive price. In markets where people aren’t knowledgable, transparency helps. I really don’t know how much jam “should” cost and it’s expensive for me to find out, so it’s best that I can compare prices at different retailers.
In relation to employees, employers compete in a buying market for whatever skill it is. This is a market where people have a pretty good idea of the going range but you’re in a negotiation. If companies know what people earn to a high degree of precision, there is little incentive to push up wages as others will follow and they won’t get sustained recruitment and retention advantages. So it’s a market where lack of transparency works well.
From the employee point of view, let’s look at a common example. Right now, if I go for a job interview, I can tell the truth about my wage (and back it up with evidence if need be in the form of a payslip), I can lie, or I can refuse to reveal. All might have advantages but it can’t help me if two of the options are off the table.
There’s a great letter from William Hague to Gordon Brown regarding the government’s policy on Georgia:
http://tinyurl.com/5fh98x
Looks like Labour’s new-found enthusiasm for attacking the Tories isn’t going too well.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 43% .. Obama 45%
http://www.gallup.com/HomePage.aspx