Gordon says Labour will win
August 20th, 2008
MORI put the Tories 24% ahead
The Guardian is reporting this evening that Brown was in bullish mood about Labour’s election chances as he talked to journalists on the long flight to China for the Olympics.
According to Deborah Summers he “..rejected Tory claims that it was now impossible for Labour to win the next election. “We are going to go on and win,” he said. “We are getting on with the job. You will find, as we get into September, that what the people of Britain are concerned about is what’s happening to their mortgages, what’s happening to their gas and electricity bills, what’s happening to oil prices and petrol prices at the pumps. These are the issues they want us to address and look at. You will see us dealing with some of these issues when we come back in September.”
[UPDATE The PM's comment came as Ipsos-MORI published their August monitor showing the Tories on 48% with Labour on 24%. This is the second worst poll for Labour for decades. The worst was a YouGov poll in May just after the local elections which had the Tories 26% ahead.]
It’s hard to know what to think but clearly Brown could not say anything else. PMs don’t say, at least not in public, that “..we are going to get a thrashing”.
Also of interest is his comments about their being no cabinet re-shuffle. The Brown recovery plan is all about the economy.
One thing that is getting much better for Labour is the declining price of crude oil and the fall-back is petrol prices from their record levels only a few weeks ago. Whether this will be reflected in the polls we shall have to wait and see.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/2592238/Prime-Minister-Gordon-Brown-breaks-silence-over-criticism-of-his-leadership.html
Tory 48%
Labour 24%
in the latest poll - No LD or other figures given yet
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA !
Reposted:
290. They can be counted as white in the US too. Hispanics are not considered a “race” in US demographics, but an “ethnicity”. They thus overlap with white and other groups. I’m sure those descended entirely from the Spanish would count as white, but others look very strongly Mayan or Aztec, and presumably wouldn’t. Native Americans (from tribes inhabiting what is now US territory) is under 1%. Their population is only now at the level they existed at Columbian contact.
On thread:
It’s not often I say this, but I think Ave It’s post is spot-on.
What do I think?
I think there’s a four-letter word and he’s full of it, to quote Roger Moore.
He’s not going to stand up and say;
You know guys, the next election is already lost”
Is he?
Looks like yet another disterous poll for Labour.
3 Socrates you are a poster of great wisdom!
I don’t think it matters if petrol comes down to 10p a litre I think Brown has killed the Nulab project dead in the water a bit like infighting and europe killed off the tories for 12 years
“Hailing Britain’s stunning achievements at the Olympics so far, he added that he hoped he and his family would be able to see some diving, canoeing, football and athletics relays while they are in China.”
We had hopes in canoeing & relays…..
3 realised after I’d posted that you had said minorities (previous posters comments made me misread, sorry)
304 on last thread. Well, I meant Romney when he was in Massachussetts and maintained a consistent position where he stressed different sides to liberals and conservatives. His presidential campaign, however, depended on the national GOP membership, who are very extreme, and thus mainly involved insisting very strongly that he didn’t see the other side of the argument at all!
Well he would say that wouldn’t he. Don’t think he believes it.
3. Thanks Socrates.
7. Brown has good experience of diving! Especially at the polls!
OK, I had a foolishly provocative comment, on the last thread, moderated into oblivion simply because it was all about the odd cartoony names of Siamese go/go girls I have known. Cuh!
ON-topic, this is a disastrous poll for Labour. Just when you think it can’t get any worse - IT GETS WORSE.
I thought 25% was rock bottom for Labour; I thought the Tories would never get this near 50%. And this is during the holiday-favouring Labour days of August?
Ouch.
I don’t believe for a minute that a drop in oil prices will help Gordo. In the last year we have witnessed a a paradigmatic shift rightwards by the entire British electorate. The only way Labour could come back, and win the next election, is if they change their name to “the Conservatives”.
Come to think of it, I wouldn’t put it past them…
I am no longer voting Lib Dem as a protest, I will now be voting Tory.
Labour have blown their chance to replace Brown, and I urge all other Labour voters to do the same, and humiliate this utter idiot at the next general election.
10. No worries. Here is an image of some typical non-white Hispanics:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/0/05/Mexicanpeople.jpg
I think you’ll find the British people are worried about food prices and the price of oil at the pumps - these are the things that concern hard working families. Thats why I am getting on with the job - I am a conviction politician. I’ll take no lectures from the Tory party on this, nor the Liberals. Vigilence is essential because the issues are down to international influences, there has not been an incompetence in government, we are just getting on with the job.
My name is Gordon Brown, I am a conviction politician. For Gods sake, someone help me.
13. Great - But Brown will still be there until the next GE!
He thinks he has the right! End of!
9- I fear, though, that your idea of seeing both sides involves giving lip service to others reasonably disagreeing, delivered in a very serious and intellectual tone, and then adopting a doctrinaire left-wing position.
I remember the shock when the Tories first started getting these huge, double digit leads. Remember this thread?
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/03/15/yougov-puts-the-tories-at-16-ahead/
Now though, these constant big leads are getting kind of…. boring?
It’s surreal. The Great Leader in cloud cuckoo land, strikes again.
17. With all respect (and I do mean that!) I think that, being a Republican, any position near the political centre you would consider “doctrinaire left-wing”. Remember, I would vote for right-wing parties in the UK, France, Germany etc.
I’m just getting on with the job… Ha, ha, ha
re 19. Have you noticed that there is an inverse correlation between GB’s sporting success and the Tory lead?
19. The question is, has Gordon been hanging out with RodCrosby? They see to be the only to people in Britain that think Labours going to win the next eletion.
‘We will win’ is as convincing as the Tories winding up PC in the Welsh Assembly elections saying that in Ynys Mon they were ‘close’….. only rather less amusing
18: Post 40 on that thread is quite good:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/03/15/yougov-puts-the-tories-at-16-ahead/
12- Your Fuehrerbunker parody on the last thread was pretty funny, as gauche as it may have been. I was seeing images of the Fuehrer giving orders to divisions that no longer existed and peering over Speer-designed miniature models of the grand new Germania to be built post-war from the rubble. But how to avoid that bunker mentality when things really are that bad? What must life be really like in Brown’s own Fuehrerbunker at Downing Street?
Re. 23. to should be two of course.
Britain seems to be heading for a lower tax economy in the long run!
Labour look likely to learch to the left!
Tory govt for 20 years!
4 - quoting Roger Moore?
Inspired or insipid? I’m in two minds, both being kept warm through the latent energy found in relentless eyebrow actions!
The Guardian interview is fascinating, from a Kremlinological point of view. It’s written in a snide and derisive tone, as far as I can see, which is designed to depict Gordon as a doomed, deluded and mendacious fool.
The inverted commas around the word “fine” - in reference to his stament about Brown-Miliband relations - are very telling. They just reek of journalistic suspicion and contempt.
I don’t think a piece like this, which makes out the prime minister to be a risible twerp, would have been printed without the editor’s express approval.
The Guardian wants Brown Out. I guess we knew that already, from the statements of the columnists, but this is the first time I’ve seen it infect the news reporting. Given that the Groaniad is such an important part of lefty thinking (forgive the oxymoron) I wonder if it will encourage a September Putsch?
Most of those worried aboyt mortgages, gas, electricity, food prices etc would have liked GB to be doing something now, not ‘when we get back in September’.
20- As a matter of genuine and sincere curiosity, is there any high-profile Republican (senator, governor, etc.) from the right wing of the party whom you see as having that quality of seeing both sides and being politically savvy?
26. Better analogy - The French General Staff in 1940. The Germans got so far inside their OODA cycle that the French were reacting to the move the Germans had made 20 cycles ago… Think boxer reacting to the punch 30 seconds late…
That plus the endearing idea that the Germans weren’t playing cricket and if the Frogs kept on playing the game properly it would all work out.
“Another barrage of the anti-Toff ammo will get them this time…”
30. September Putsch?
Intersting thought! Will it happen - probably not!
Who would take over? Straw perhaps?
The real question is can Mike Smithson fit 24 smiling David’s on the one thread?
What are the odds that he will do ya reckon?
28. I think we’ll get lower taxes eventually, but actually what I’m most looking forward to is just getting a government that lets people get on and go about their buisness with minimal fuss and bother. A government that completely re-balances the relationship between the government and the governed. And hopefully this will eventually filter down to local government too.
I remember the day when councils and the like were public servents. When the services we pay for were provided and we all just went around out daily lives. Under Labour, the primary concern of councils and government seems to be to make everyones lives a misery. We need a complete change of emphasis and focus and I’m looking to the Tories to provide that change. It’ll be like a breat of freah air.
32. Although I disagree with him quite strongly on several issues, Mike Huckabee springs to mind.
30 I very much doubt anything could get the cowards to act short of a cattle prod.
Some are deluded, some are inept, some are collaborators of the worst kind. All of them are opposition-in-waiting.
Gordon Brown, put a red nose on, paint him white and call him CoCo.
37. Charlie Crist also.
34 Lets get Lou Reeds opinion on that possibility
Straw Man going straight to the devil, Straw Man going straight to Hell, Straw Man…. P*ssing in the wind comes back at you twice as hard.
Lou Reed is never wrong.
25. Yes, gratz to Ave It!
There are some other classic comments on that early Spring thread, about the first big Tory poll lead. I especially like this one:
“Relax people. These polls are no more meaningful than last weeks which had the parties within a point or two of each other……
There are two years till the next election and if posters on here don’t think that’s time enough for Cameron’s Conc’s to blow it and for Labour to get their act together then they’re dreaming. For what it’s worth I think Labour are at last finding a narrative which is more than can be said for the Tories. it takes a while to work it’s way through to the polls.
My advice….wait and see.
by Roger March 15th, 2008 at 8:14 pm”
Thanks, Rog. We miss you. xxx.
Was he flying on a pig to Beijing?
The next 3 weeks will determine whether there is to be a challenge to Brown’s leadership this side of Spring next year.
Whether it be Johnson/Cruddas or Miliband, either/both will need to show their hand by around 10 September latest. If not, Gordon can relax. My view is that there’s currently a 1 in 4 chance of this happening and that this prospect is receeding by the day. Remember PfP’s first rule of politics - someone always knows and someone always tells.
Well thus far, no one seems to be telling.
37- Socrates, you mention that in other countries, such as France, you would support the right. I don’t know your level of familiarity with French politics, but if you can, I would be interested to know which party or politicians there that you would support in an alternate universe where you were born a Frenchman. Would you be a Sarko supporter? A supporter of the UMP?
42. Where is Roger?
I still haven’t really figured what it was that caused Labour’s collapse back in March. It happened just a few days after the budget, so it was either;
1. Balls up’s infamous “So what”
Or
2. Darlin’s complete inaction and complacency in the budget.
Something snapped in the ides of March and Labour reached the point of no return.
44- According to Nick, it’s already too late.
Running the figs through Baxter with outer markers for the Lib Dems of 17 and 21 we have a Conservatice majority of between 252 and 264 and Labour in the 136-140 region of seats.
Tell you what Gordon, ust get on with the job for a the next 21 months then feel free to buggar off and take a couple hundred of your colleagues with you.
44. I still think if something happens it’ll be November or maybe even December. Labour don’t want Brown to go and the new leader to be put in too early because they want to get to spring before they have to call an election. If they leave it until Nov/Dem before Brown goes and Jan/Feb before the new leader is announced, they can say an immediate election is out until spring, owing to it being winter.
Does anyone think Labour might get 0 seats?
TEE HEE
41. I would have probably voted for Bayrou in the first round of the last Presidency, and certainly for Sarkozy in the second round. I would find it hard to be a supporter of any of the parties, due to their europhilia, but I’d always prefer the UMP or MoDem over the socialists. I detested Chirac, for what it’s worth.
44. Conference starts on 20th September. According to Labour party rules, any nominations for the leadership must be received at least two weeks in advance. This means by Thursday 4th September at the latest.
In practice we would have heard by now if it was going to happen.
Next year is a possibility though…
50, there is chance Labour will disappear over the next parliaments. In Scotland there doesnt even seem to be any safe Labour seats anymore - and Labour is scottish.
“We are getting on with the job - Click…We are getting on with the job - Click…We are getting on with the job - Click…”
It’s a pity Spitting Image was biased. Brown provides so much material.
50 I think the PLP will be small enough that the Xmas bash can be held in a Starbucks.
I hope they get less than 100 and get wiped out in Wales and Scotland.
46. No, it was just the “tipping point”. An insignificant point in itself - that nevertheless proved the crucial fulcrum, on which public opinion turned.
Prior to that we’d had the Iraq war, the Lisbon betrayal, the data loss fiasco, the immigration problems, plus all the usual lies, sleaze, ugliness, treachery and morally degraded behaviour you expect from lefties.
I think sometime in early March the public mood just snapped and everyone thought: oh, that’s it, enough already, please please please please go away!
From this kind of public moodswing there is no return, even if you are economically competent, as John Major well knows (and this hapless bunch are facing an economic DOWNTURN).
In a way it’s like one of those marriages where, after fifty years, the wife is so enraged by the husband leaving his spoon in the mustard jar, for the zillionth time, she smashes his brains out with a rolling pin. It’s not the act, its the huge accumulation of petty resentment over the years.
Brown is off to Peking, will there be some attributable mischief making over the next few days could be fun.
Not sure that Brown will like the way votes will have noticed the collapse of the pound against the Euro, after they have toted up the cost of meals, drinks and holidays in sunnier climes. Could this help push the Tories over 50%?
54 if they get wiped out in wales and scotland they will be looking at sub 50!
New Insider Advantage poll for North Carolina :
McCain 44.5% .. Obama 42.8% .. Barr 5.2% .. Nader 0.9%
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/56_InsiderAdvantage%20Majority%20Opinion%20Research%20NC%20Pres%20Poll%20Cross-Tabulations%208%2019%2008%20rev.pdf
52 I’m sure you’re right Rob, on which basis we’re down to either the Brown genuinely quitting or the mass Cabinet resignation threat scenarios, both singularly unlikely. On reflection, I’d say it’s currently a 1 in 6 chance and if nothing happens before 10 September then it’s less than 1 in 20 for the remainder of 2008 through to end March next year.
55.
“In a way it’s like one of those marriages where, after fifty years, the wife is so enraged by the husband leaving his spoon in the mustard jar, for the zillionth time, she smashes his brains out with a rolling pin. It’s not the act, its the huge accumulation of petty resentment over the years.”
That just made me LOL!
‘Gordon ways Labour will win.’
Raith Rovers will win European Cup, and pigs are seen flying at 50,000 feet over the Farnborough Airshow.
Don’t forget the “Beijing Bounce”
Am I alone with Nick P in thinking that NuLabour will slowly increase their share in the Opinion Polls?
I actually think this calamitous poll might do it - might ensure there is a Putsch.
This poll was taken during the supposed glow of our Olympics glory. It’s in the middle of the national vacation which benefits Labour. It’s come after a long period when Cameron has been hardly seen on TV (and that normally helps Labour), it comes after a long period when Brown has been hardly seen on TV (and that normally helps Labour).
And yet Labour have polled their 2nd worst result in the history of the visible universe.
What more encouragement do leadership contenders need? Brown is guiding the party into the apocalypse, an electoral abyss whence they might never return. Careers are gonna be ground into the mud under the fat wheels of the Tractor Fella.
If Miliband or whoever don’t move soon, then they have the cullions of a flea and they deserve all they are gonna be served up, with parsley, in 2010.
57 Thats true, lets go for 32 Labour MPs, led by Blears, 4th largest party behind Tories, Clegg’s Clods and the SNP.
‘Labour? I remember them, always f***** whining’ said one old timer
51- Why do the major political parties across almost all of Europe support the EU, for example in the sense of supporting the Lisbon Treaty, when overall public support is much less? In most EU countries, it seems that left and right stand virtually united in boosting the EU even when ordinary folks of all political stripes are against it.
64 could be a fight for the taxi after the GE!
LAB or LD???!
I hope people saw my Bayh thing last thread
http://www.nashvillepost.com/news/2008/8/20/obama_team_to_hold_major_event_saturday_in_bayhs_indiana
Also congrats to ave it for the E-Bayh joke. First time I saw it - won’t be the last…
Matters USA style from Bloomberg.com
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) — Barack Obama and John McCain are locked in a tight battle for president, with the Democrat capitalizing on voter concern over the economy and energy and the Republican benefiting from his experience and success in neutralizing the issue of the unpopular Iraq war.
The latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll shows that Obama, the first black major-party nominee, may have defused the issue of race, particularly among independents who will form a crucial voting bloc in the November election.
With the nominating conventions set to begin next week, Illinois Senator Obama edges McCain 42 percent to 41 percent among registered voters; minor-party candidates garner 5 percent. In a head-to-head matchup excluding third-party candidates, Obama has a 2-point advantage over Arizona Senator McCain. The results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
63 you really give them too much credit - they are laughable cowards the cabinet. they will do nothing and they will publically thank Gordon for each poll mauling and each humiliation. They are good little punchbags.
62. I don’t think there will be a “Beijing Bounce” at all.
Look, people are stuggling to fill up thir cars. Pay their electrcity bill. Afford to eat and god knows how they will pay their gas bill this winter. In such circumstances the olympics are a minor distraction at best. A chance to escape the daily struggle and sure its good that Britain is doing so well, but if anyone seriously thinks this will help Labours poll rating, they don’t have to deal with the daily trials that most normal people do.
65. Power. It gives them power which they can exercise behind closed doors. It gives them power they can exercise away from the press and public of their own country, it gives them endless sinecures for their unpopular mates and an enormous fund of money to dole out to the same. The reason why so many parties support it is because they reckon on being able to have a functioning electoral system without raising it as an issue. They CAN get elected without raising it as an issue, so they DO.
69- Registered voters; among likely voters then, McCain likely would have a lead of 1 or 2 points based on this poll’s data.
66 I think Lab will try and bum a lift in Clegg’s cab - they can’t afford the fare on their own. Cleggy should make sure he is dropped off first.
65. It’s helpful for politicians to use to implement unpopular policies and then not be directly responsible for them. Its a nice little gravy train you can move upstairs to, without accountability, when the public are fed up of you. Plus a lot of them genuinely believe they are the George Washington’s of the future and the public are just too thick to realise it yet.
62. Don’t forget the “Beijing Bounce”
More like the ‘Foo Kin Flop’
On another matter I thought I should run Rod Crosby’s election simulator.
Even with Rod’s adjustments (based on the SNP getting 42% others 10% LD’s 18%) this gives figures of:
Con 426
Lab 121
LD 30
PC/SNP 51
Other 4
Con Majority: 206
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA…
…wait, I’m not done yet…
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!
Get your P45 Gordy, and get stuffed.
65. One is also reminded of the Yes, Minister sketch:
Jim Hacker: Europe is a community of nations, dedicated towards one goal.
Sir Humphrey: Oh, ha ha ha.
Jim Hacker: May we share the joke, Humphrey?
Sir Humphrey: Oh Minister, let’s look at this objectively. It’s a game played for national interests, it always was. Why do you suppose we went into it?
Jim Hacker: To strengthen the brotherhood of Free Western nations.
Sir Humphrey: Oh really. We went in to screw the French by splitting them off from the Germans.
Jim Hacker: So why did the French go into it then?
Sir Humphrey: Well, to protect their inefficient farmers from commercial competition.
Jim Hacker: That certainly doesn’t apply to the Germans.
Sir Humphrey: No no, they went in to cleanse themselves of genocide and apply for readmission to the human race.
Jim Hacker: I never heard such appalling cynicism. At least the small nations didn’t go into it for selfish reasons.
Sir Humphrey: Oh really? Luxembourg is in it for the perks; the capital of the EEC, all that foreign money pouring in.
Jim Hacker: Very sensible central location.
Sir Humphrey: With the administration in Brussels and the Parliament in Strasbourg? Minister, it’s like having the House of Commons in Swindon and the Civil Service in Kettering.
You could now add in the eastern bloc to protect themselves from Russia, and the Balkans to disassociate themselves from Serbia.
68 TY! Its not the first time I’ve posted it - and there’s a fair chance you will see it again!
77 no its:
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA
75- The non-accountability aspect must be very appealing, indeed! Domestic politicians can then just play good cop to the Brussels bad cop and always come away looking like they’re doing their best to serve the people.
56 It would be very surprising if the 17% higher costs for those on holiday in Euroland this summer were not to show up in the polls.
As regards the £’s recent fall against the dollar, this is already preventing any further reductions in the cost of petrol.
The really bad news for Labour however is still ahead with around 250,000 likely to lose their jobs over the next 12 months and tens of thousands of house re-possessions set to take place over the same period. Never mind about the lack of holiday spending money, these are the issues which will shift voting intentions big time.
72. To extend that point. Charles Clarke came up with some idea after the London bombs to record details of all emails/internet pages visited and phone calls made. He pushed the plan into EU legislation, not through the HoC. Why? No-one will report on the debating of the legislation if it goes through the EU, because it doesn’t get debated in the pretend parliament in Poirot-Land, and besides, most people are slack-jawed window-lickers who can’t even follow UK politics so are going to look right past anything happening in Europe.
A few years later, the legislation is announced as an EU diktat. We can’t change it - do you want to withdraw from the EU? - think of what we gain -economic disaster - peace after ww2 - etc. Every piece of legislation is then seen through the filter of leaving the EU.
Here’re some surprises: if you give politicians power, they use it. If you give them power to act without oversight, they use it. If you give them the possibility of extending the power that they have, they do it. And, folowing from those facts, they will do it without asking if they can.
Sadly I think the whole EU project will only collapse when there is some crisis in at least one country which means that it is absolutely impossible for a party to win an election without withdrawing.
On the Bayh thing from Politico, suggestion tomorrow afternoon is the time the nominee will know
“UPDATE: An Obama aide denied the report.
After a day of campaigning in Virginia, Obama is overnighting in Richmond tonight as the guest of Gov. Tim Kaine, Politico has learned from Old Dominion sources.
So, is it a consolation prize for the young veep hopeful, or a warmup act for one of the biggest buddy acts in presidential history?
According to Newsweek’s Howard Fineman, the prospects will know soon: They’ve been asked where they can be reached tomorrow afternoon.”
81. Yes, its similar to why Washington politicians hang on to earmarks and lobbyists funding their campaigns, when both are so unpopular with the public.
71 Whisper it very quietly, but GB’s success in the Beijing Olympics is mainly about a few cyclists and a few sailors and good on them. Meanwhile, our haul of medals in track and field is likely to be about as meagre as ever, despite all the millions lavished on these divas.
83. The media coverage of the EU parliament is indeed shameless. They enact 50-80% of our laws, and even if those laws are half as important as Westmister ones, that’s still 25%-40% of our governance. I’ve come to the conclusion in the last couple of years that journalists are spectacularly lazy people. No wonder spin doctors are so prevalent when journalists spend most of their time debating the politicians talking points.
86 SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSH its all about the cyclists sailors and rebecca adlington!!!!!!!
72. 83.
Exactly - the EU has been used to push through things that wouldn’t get passed the voters. Some is good, like competition and bans on most state subsidies. Most is anti-democratic rubbish.
Note the violent disgust for the Swiss among the extreme Europhiles - the *idea* of a country where the proles can change the law. Note also the the Swiss politician are 80% in favour of the EU, but can’t get it past the people
81 Very, very, much so. It really is a great way of taking decisions without reference to the voters, and then blaming “Europe” and claiming you did your best for your people.
Britain is almost unique in that a sizeable proportion of the political class actually believes that political decisions should be taken within the national legislasture, rather than as a result of a carve up between ministers from different countries. But then, Parliament has a prestige that no Continental legislature has.
When was this poll conducted?
Maybe Cameron looking the statesman in Georgia (when Brown was nowhere to be seen) has paid off.
88 Quite right, my apols to Rebecca and the other successful swimmers.
91 - There will be as many track and field medals as there are for swimming.
Is this the John Major Tory Olympic/lottery bounce?
If Nick Palmer thought 15% wasn’t too bad, I wonder what he thinks about 24%
In May/June the trigger for Gordon going was a disastrous showing in Crewe, then it was if the polls showed no improvement by Conference, defined as narrowing to a 10% or less Conservative lead, which then became a disaster in Glasgow East and no improvement by September.
They have all happened and now its “lets wait to see how the Great Autumn Re-Launch goes” (and will the polls narrow?)”.
I thought it would be electoral wipe-out in the Euro elections and locals next June but I wonder now if it isn’t just an onward march of the lemmings to the cliff of June 2010.
90. Parliamentary sovereignty is one of the greatest inventions of mankind.
This economic recovery plan/Autumn fight back better be something pretty spectacular otherwise it will sink without trace. They’ve been hyping it up since the local elections!
WRT this poll, it is utterly disastrous for Labour. At this sort of level, seats like Don Valley would fall. Morley & Outwood wouldn’t even be close.
New Rasmussen poll for New Hampshire :
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_presidential_election
The most interesting thing is the apparent decision not to reshuffle. The first smart thing that Gordon Brown has done in a long time.
Mind you, 24% suggests that it is way way way way way too late.
95 I agree, but it’s a minority viewpoint. Most of the great political theorists have been advocates of autocracy, or oligarchy. Most europhiles definitely support the latter, believing that it stands between Europe and barbarism.
46. What caused Labour’s collapse was that Budget. It was the final staw and an insult to working people. People were starting to feel the economy going south and all Brown/Darling could come up with was an extra tax on booze and a tax on placcy bags!
New Rasmussen poll for Maryland :
McCain 43% .. Obama 53%
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_rasmussen_maryland_818.php
OLYMPIC 200m REPORT
——————-
Is 19.30 the percentage Labour will get next time?
Or will it be 9.69% HEHEHEHEHEHEHE
87. There is of course the decline of the print media to factor in. They don’t have that many resources,and EU coverage doesn’t get readers. Mainly because people do not believe that EU legislation is as important as it has become, becasue they didn’t ever want it to become so important, never voted for it to happen, and have never been told the truth by the politicians who created this situation.
But there are other factors, one glaringly obvious one being language. How can a reporter report on what happens in Brussels if they can’t understand? Does anyone really think that the translators in the EU ‘parliament’ are accurately and speedily reporting everything that is said? How often do they make mistakes, miss bits out? There’s no meaningful debate under those circumstances and nor can matters be investigated by the press as they can here. I’m going to stop now because otherwise this post will never end.
92 There are nearly as many already, one Gold and two bronzes on the track versus two Golds, one silver and two bronze in the pool, real hope we get another couple at least from Athletics. Three guaranteed from boxing, perhaps another swimming, another sailing and another cycling. UK has a good chance of finishing fourth (Russia should overtake GB by weekend) which will be a great kick off for 2012.
Don’t know if there will ever be another team like the track cyclists though, this was their shining season.
84. According to the BBC, Obama is expected to name his veep shortly. I cant believe that he will choose Biden. On camera he looks old and tired, not a good advert for a young presidential hopeful.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7573424.stm
Reported via “Political Wire” …. this may come back to haunt McCain :
“Ma’am, let me say that I don’t disagree with anything you said.”
– John McCain, responding to a woman in a town hall meeting earlier today, who concluded her comments with the line “if we don’t re-enact the draft, I don’t think we’ll have anyone to chase Bin Laden to the gates of hell
98 Smart? Gordon has never done anything smart. Reshuffling was never an option IMHO. in any event Gordon had already said that his team would remain in situ till the election before any chatter about reshuffling.
90. Britain also has (more or less uniquely) FPTP, which means that politics as normal isn’t conducted behind closed doors to the same extent and should keep more politicians in fear of losing their jobs if they become unpopular than would be the case under PR.
86 we currently have a gold, a silver, and a bronze, we have a good chance of gold with Idowu tomorrow and there are chances of medals with Goldie Sayers in the Javelin, Rooney in the 400m and the relay teams will usually feature in some fashion, we had fifth placed finishes from Sotherton and Malcolm in the 200m today, a 6th equalling the best ever by a British woman in the marathon - we have already had more male track finalists than Athens and yes, we have had some disappointments too. Not sure how this equates with the ‘divas’ tag - take someone like Sarah Claxton who reached the final of the 100m hurdles without funding at all - she had to borrow the money to go to Loughborough and qualify. She made the olympic final.
Something from that Gordon Brown “We are going to go on and win” interview from The Telegraph which made me smile -
‘The Prime Minister also disclosed that he had been keeping fit during his summer holiday in Suffolk by doing “a lot of running”.’
83- Or what if the Russians follow through on their threat about a missile shield and start bombing EU member Poland? What crazy things happen then?
110. Even Germany, Moscow’s best European ally, would declare war on Russia. Europe still remembers the Cold War.
When was this poll taken? Maybe Cameron looking like a statesman over Georgia paid off.
109
There was some comment about him having appointed a personal trainer
McCain leading:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/75ef8728-6eac-11dd-a80a-0000779fd18c.html
9 pnts ahead. Do we beleive it, one wonders.
113. We wouldn’t anyway, and especially not if it’s Zogby.
111- Scary business. I have a feeling that Russia thinks they could get away with it, though. Perhaps they could drive their tanks around Poland they way they have in Georgia, teach the Poles a lesson and destroy their military installations, impose a peace guaranteeing no more missile shields, and then go back to Russia.
115. I can understand why you might think that. As an American both are far away places on the edge of Europe. But Europeans think of Poland as very different from Georgia. It just wouldn’t be tolerated by anyone in any European country on left or right.
89. Any theories on why politicians tend to be more “europhile” than your average punter on the street?
I fully expect David Cameron to suddenly embrace Europe once he sits down at the big table in the Justus Lipsius. There is obviously something in the water there. It happens to them all.
114. What’s wrong with Zogby?
93. Good point about Major and the polls. He has been wheeled out abit over the last few days and it didn’t do us any harm last time. He looks very gentlmanly and refined in contrast with Brown.
Alot of people are revising their view of the guy. Are people already looking back more fondly - as they seem to now in the US with the Clinton-era?
There seem to be plenty of people who have already forgotten why Blair was dumped only a year ago.
113 YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!
Ave it calls it again!!
Gold medal to Ave it for political forecasting!!!
110, 111. The EU doesn’t really exist militarily. As of now, countries would decide on their response individually. Two weeks later some meeting of beaurocrats would probably decide to kit out a few hundred men in EU helmets or something.
If the Tories are in power and Russia really starts ramping up the pressure (which IMO will be in Ukraine, not Poland - he said they’d respond, but that doesn’t mean in Poland, they view this as a broader strategic game, which it is) then it will kill the EU’s idea of military integration, I’m sure. The reality of badly-kept, under-funded armies will become apparent, splits on policy will come out, and the Tories will ride their gently anti-EU breeze onto a firm nationalist branch. If Labour are still in power, they would be tempted to use the crisis to further integration, but the fiasco over the Lisbon treaty will almost certainly prevent them. It may well be that this crisis, if it grows, will be the one that halts EU integration. Destroying the institution as it is is another matter. Like cockroaches, they will build from the ruins of a war-ravaged Balkans.
110. They won’t. It’s not said as an intention but as rhetoric aimed at redefining the relationship between Moscow and Washington / NATO. Throughout the Cold War, the Soviets were generally much less agressive with regard to the West than NATO (though obviously the Soviet Union’s felt free to act with a free hand within Eastern Europe). But then the two sides generally had different aims: the West played to win whereas the Communists played for acceptance of equality.
Putin / Medvedev really don’t want the missile defence in Poland but their real fear is about the way in which NATO has expanded and got much closer to their own borders. Twenty years ago, Soviet troops were stationed on the Elbe; today, NATO troops are only a hundred miles from St. Petersburg. However you look at it, that’s one hell of a strategic reverse. The Georgia episode was in no small part about trying to draw a line under that retreat. Georgia though is only the bulwalk; were Ukraine to join, it would be a stake through the Russian heart. Remember that Kiev is the birthplace of Russia and its ‘loss’ in 1991 is still felt deeply.
Besides, for all the new money in Russia and the commodity ‘muscle’ Moscow enjoys, it’s still in a very weak position compared with what it once was and what other powers are.
109. Keep on running, keep on hiding. Yes, that’s Gordon
116- In the view of europhiles in particular, haven’t the Poles rather made arses of themselves and earned the contempt of many Europeans? Might this not give rise to a certain amount of schadenfreude and a willingness to let the Poles take their lumps by themselves? Looked at another way, can the EU really let the Poles unilaterally get them drawn into a war with Russia over the Poles’ desire for a missile shield?
96 You seem to have an almost unnatural interest in the outcome of Outwood and Morley.
[Me too.]
115. I don’t share your confidence. Germany is not keen on war, and has a lot to lose if relations with Russia go sour. I’m not sure they would be prepared to actually go to war.
125 could be a Balls up!
re 86 PfP if you really are from Putney how can you not have noticed that we have a few dozen successful rowers as well. Grr
124. Quite. Europhiles being mostly anti-Americans, they will view this as a result of the US’s provocations and it will confirm their belief that the EU needs to counterweight the irresponsible, childish yankees. Britain would want to respond, I doubt France, Germany, Italy or Spain would.
127 He could get a job marking SATS.
124. Different government now.
130 soon he will have the whole week free, not just Sat!!!
124. Plus, for the europhiles, their understanding of an Eurosuperstate would be ruined if Russia were allowed to march in on it without military consequence.
129. Sarkozy, Merkel, Berlusconi? They’re all pro-Americans.
126. Germany probably would, not least because (in this scenario), were Poland to be overrun, Germany would feel somewhat vulnerable. Plenty of their population will have memories going back before 1989, including Angela Merkal.
Germany wouldn’t matter though. Remember that the missile base would be American. An attack on an American base, irrespective of where it is, would be seen by the White House, Congress and the American population as an attack on America itself - and the Russians will be well aware of that.
The point I think Moscow was trying to make was to the Poles, that it’s possible they could easily get drawn into a conflict that they otherwise might not do - but clearly that conflict could only be with the United States. The fact that such a conflict could even be speculated on, even by someone outside the political circle (not contradicted though, I believe), is evidence of the distancing of the Kremlin from co-operation and its assertion of its ability to act independently - as was made much more apparent in the Georgian invasion. It’s the redefining of Russia’s place in the world that’s the important change.
131- They can’t be that different if they are still clamoring for a U.S.-sponsored missile shield.
136. The EU vs USA split is a Western Europe mentality. The East regards the EU, USA and NATO as all part of the same “Western” sphere, away from Russia. Germany and France won’t blame Poland for doing that. (Actually, unusually for France, Sarkozy buys into the Eastern mindset - more EU integration while reinserting France into NATO’s command structure.)
80. Quite frankly, Ave It, I’m getting sick of these childish posts of yours.
Why can’t you post some sensible insight into Labours political situation?
Something like….
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135.
Except that Russians seeking global business expansion would probably rather Russia defined itself as something other than a KGB agent’s wetdream.
129. Hmm. Maybe. It’s a matter of degree I think. Sarko wants to increase French power. I see no reason to think his pro-Americanism is more than his fawning words were on his visit to Britain - a way to get what he wants. He wants an EU military and diplomatic power and has decided getting closer to the US will help. Merkel and Berlusconi I don’t know enough about. The Germans as a whole, though, I do not believe would be keen on a war that could be put down to US meddling (and would be put down to it).
138 LOL! best post of the month
If McCain gets in I hope he does bring back the draft: if Americans insist on electing warmongers it’s only fair they should go and fight.
141.
140- I don’t think a new German war with Russia would go much better for the Germans than the last one did, either.
138
most amusing, but even tho there is no Geoffrety Howe to do the dirty, it does make one wonder how long Labour MP’s can stomach 20% plus leads. If I was a Labour MP, I would be starting to panic.
I’ve just been reading a rather good book by John Kay on markets, and I’ve been struck by a particularly apposite quote:
“Organizations in decay are often simultaneously authoritarian and indecisive”
Who does that remind me of … ?
Another one could explain the Great Dithering: “The simplest means of not being blamed for a mistake is not to make a decision”.
Which would imply that the worse things get for the Government, the more Gordon will dither, and the worse things will get for the Government. Will there be any natural saturation point?
re 145 it depends on the MP I suppose. Nick P will of course stay loyal and not rock the boat, why would he as he’s out anyway. It’s the likes of the MPs for Erith (current majority 10k), Darlington (Alan Milburn 10.5k), Warrington North (12k) etc who will decide. They currently might have thought they’ve got a cushy job for life. According to Rod C’s calculator they’ll have a huge scrap on their hands to save their skin according to this poll.
I notice that given a Nats boost of 20% on these figures are dear leader would be looking at a less than 2000 majority.
147
It would be ironic and deppy satisfying if the great leader was defeated in the only election he was forced to face. Actually it would be orgasmic. Odds on it happening to are about 100-1
144. I certainly don’t think it would be German troops turning the Russians back.
I think the europhiles want the EU to put an end to wars in Europe. They’d like a deterrent, but I think that they’d be reluctant to use it and assume that it would frighten away any potential invaders. Right now, there is no EU army, so countries would break according to their national politics. NATO would be relied upon if something were to happen, which means American force. I think Germany would be desperate to halt the Russians in Poland and would act to do that diplomatically.
It’s similar to the situation with Obama we discussed earlier. Everything about his actions, his attitudes and his behaviour makes us think he would do anything to avoid a conflict despite what he claims he would do in extreme circumstances. That’s my impression of European leaders and europhiles in general. They like the idea of an EU army, but nothing gives any indication they would be willing to use it until they had made as many concessions as they possibly could.
re 148 100/1 looks huge value to me, you can be sure that the SNP will throw absolutely everything at it.
146.”“Organizations in decay are often simultaneously authoritarian and indecisive”
Who does that remind me of … ?
Another one could explain the Great Dithering: “The simplest means of not being blamed for a mistake is not to make a decision”.
Which would imply that the worse things get for the Government, the more Gordon will dither, and the worse things will get for the Government. Will there be any natural saturation point?”
Those two quotes sum up Gordon Brown the politician, and also the government he is presiding over.
Benedict Brogan has this on the PM’s and his entourages trip to Beijing. Family outing, with champagne
The Brown’s are taking their children with them and Brogan has this to say “They are due to attend a few events with their parents, though my hunch is Mr Brown will do his best to avoid Dave-style family photos. Both men, it seems, are trapped by the conventions they have established: Mr Cameron has surrendered his right to privacy and must accept the cameras following him and his kids everywhere; Mr Brown by contrast, has to accept that he may not be able to watch the diving with his boys on his knee. A pity both ways.”
Not sure I agree with him on either Brown or Cameron being trapped by the conventions they have established? The Blair’s managed to control to a large extent the media coverage of their children. I don’t think that occasionally allowing your children into the picture gives the media carte blanche to do what they want?
4 Nov will be fun!
McCAIN GAINS New Jersey etc!
149- That sums it up nicely. Presuming an Obama presidency, my guess is that both the Europeans and America would throw Poland to the Russian wolves, but insist that the Russians go no further. At least, that would be the ultimate outcome of such a scenario.
Any word on the LibDem figure from MORI?
153. Do you seriously believe all this stuff? Blood-curdling rhetoric aside, the chances of Russia actually attacking Poland are vanishingly small. It’s the countries with large Russian minorities (Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine) that have some reason to worry, but even there Russia is likely to use rather subtler means to achieve its objectives.
“Also of interest is his comments about their being no cabinet re-shuffle. The Brown recovery plan is all about the economy.”
But can Brown and his government regain their credibility on the economy, I am not sure they can if their sums won’t add up and that spending black hole continues to widen.
Fraser Nelson has this on the Coffee House Blog. Labour’s unfunded spending commitments
Yvette Cooper on Monday revealed two parts of George Osborne’s policy of which I was unaware. The first was his secret plan for swingeing tax cuts. Next, she informs us, “by my tally, the Tories have commitments of an extra £11bn of unfunded promises”. Well by the ONS tally, revealed this morning, Labour’s unfunded spending commitments total £19.1 billion, and that’s just since the start of the financial year in April. This time last year it was £8.1 billion.
This is one for ConservativeHome’s Scorched Earth Alert – vandalisation of the public finances, driving down the pound which is in turn pumping up inflation. Of course, the money will have to be repaid by taxes raised by whoever wins the next election. There is a certain vindictive logic to Brown’s tactics. But for as long as this destructive agenda is being pursued, no Labour MP has the right to complain about Tories “unfunded spending promises”. Because this Labour government is – by my tally – making £160 million of unfunded spending commitments every single day.”
Heaven knows Brown has got a lot of form when it comes to vindictive behaviour against his perceived opponents within the Labour party and on the opposition benches.
153.Not going to happen, some times there is a country that is regarded as that red line that you don’t cross, I think that Poland is a case in point.
More make-believe from Gordon. Apparently he was in very good spirits on the flight to China with the journo’s. It’s all so reminiscent of the 1994-97 period under John Major. Say everything is alright, oblivious to the obvious reality and just hope for the best, knowing all the time that things are just plain ugly. And any scrap of good news, like all the Olympic medals try to jump on the band wagon - well Gordon, no one is making a connection between the 2 - am enjoying Major resurrecting his reputation with the setting up of the lottery reminder - I always thought with the passing of time that history would be kind to JM.
As soon as it hits Russia, I’m out. I’m here to share with you free Brown. Do not try and use suggestion tomorrow afternoon the data is to short to be traded.
155 - The extremism of the US right as opposed to our own (well, mainstream conservative right anyway) is quite marked. The neo-cold war rhetoric referred to in your post is thankfully missing, although the rabid anti-Europe element seem to pick up on it and wallow in it.
I don’t know if this observation has been made before. There are well over 5 million voters working in the public sector and you would expect that many of the rank and file would have voted Labour in the past. Gordon though has been peeing them off in recent years with low pay rises and cuts. Police, nurses, civil servants etc have had increases of around 0% to 2% forced on them, way below the rate of inflation which amounts to a pay cut. Many earn well below the national average anyway. At the same time there has been a drive for greater efficiency, job cuts and office closures with an ever-increasing workload and form-filling so morale must be at rock bottom. I can see many abstaining or voting for anyone but Labour.
147 - think your best guide in the case of a Labour meltdown is 1983/87 to see where the Labour vote holds up best. As I’ve said before on here, I think it’s seats like Halifax, Grimsby, Carlisle, Copeland etc that will determine whether Labour finish up at around the 200 level or descend the depths to 150 and below. Warrington North is another instructive example, you’d automatically put it in the Labour column at 19 out of 20 GE’s, but maybe not next time if the meltdown is brutal.
155 - The logical conclusion of that line -
“The big concern with a McCain presidency – a concern which I am surprised has not been vocalized more fully – is that the U.S. will lurch from crisis to crisis, confrontation to confrontation, whether it be with Iran, North Korea, Russia, Syria, Saudi Arabia, etc. The danger is that McCain’s pundit-like rhetoric will entrap the U.S. in descending spiral of foreign policy brinksmanship. Just think about the very likely scenario of McCain giving Iran/Russia a rhetorical ultimatum and Iran/Russia ignoring it. Now we are stuck - either we lose face by not following through on our threats or we follow through and go to war. We can’t afford such a reckless approach after the last eight years. For the next eight we need a president not a pundit. ”
http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2008/08/a-pundit-not-a.html
160 - agreed, and that’s going to be devastating to Labour, particularly in the North and Wales / Scotland where a larger proportion of the electorate is employed in the public sector when compared to the South / East Anglia.
155. I agree that Ukraine in particular is a more likely target. However, I think your belief that Russia wouldn’t attack Poland is very, very wrong. The Russians have a culture which is not as concerned with human life as ours, an autocratic regime with no compunctions about murder, and a burning sense of national shame and honour lost. There are many who would like to think that the horrors of the past can’t happen again. They were wrong before, and they’re wrong now. Of course Russia will not go to war unless it can’t get what it wants in an easier manner. If it needs to go to war to rotect it’s strategic interests it will.
“The Russians have a culture which is not as concerned with human life as ours”
This just gets funnier.
165. How is that funny? I lived in Russia for a year. I doubt you’d find a single Russian who disagreed with that statement.
Just reading from Mish Shedlock’s economics blog
Fannie, Freddie $223 Billion Debt Rollover Problem by the end of September. Am getting some put options in place on the major indexes with 6 months, expiry end February next year - I see some enormous financial fireworks at some point. I think the Fed / Bush administration will do everything possible to prevent a meltdown before November, but I see something giving in a big way at some point before the end of the year. Kenneth Rogoff’s prediction of a huge US bank going under at some point in the near future coincided with my views - Washington Mutual, Wachovia, Citibank or Countrywide would be on my top 4 list. Why Bank of America decided to buy Countrywide I have no idea - very much a case of Gresham’s law - good money going after bad money, a dreadful mistake me thinks.
164. “…an autocratic regime with no compunctions about murder, and a burning sense of national shame and honour lost”
I actually wouldn’t entirely disagree with that part of your post. Putin is a cold, calculating, ruthless - but highly intelligent and rational - autocrat. He’s not Hitler or Saddam Hussein. Therefore he’s simply not going to over-reach himself in suicidal fashion by launching an invasion of Poland!
The more people see of Brown the worse they do. At a time when Labour should by consensus be doing better in the polls they are doing worse.
There will be a bounce but we are at the the top of the bounce now not the bottom.
168. But what we were saying is that it wouldn’t be suicidal. Putin is no fool, and he’s not going to start a war with NATO. However, Stars and Stripes and I both believe that neither the EU, nor the US under Obama, would defend Poland. If Putin also believes that, the question is quite different. The Russians really don’t like the idea of a hostile power on their borders and they will remove it if they can. Can they? Well, who would defend Poland? That’s the question.
164- I didn’t didn’t say Russia won’t attack Poland! I agree with you that it isn’t so far-fetched to imagine Russia attacking Poland. If they want to follow through on their explicit threat, they will simply do so and leave it to the knock-kneed West to decide how to respond. I don’t know why people here find it so unimaginable, frankly. If Russia ever intends to reset the strategic balance in their neighborhood, they might never have a better opportunity.
168- It might not be so suicidal, though. In fact, my best guess is that if the deal is either 1) let Poland be ravaged or 2) face all-out war with Russia, the choice would be 1.
170. No, I think you mixed up 155 and 153. Frances (155) was saying they wouldn’t attack Poland. I agree with your post at 153. (Or have I misunderstood?)
172- No, we’re okay! It’s getting a little late…
168- The goal, of course, is not to wage war on Poland, or Ukraine, or any other place, per se. The goal is to get Russia’s neighbors, and the world in general, to recognize that Russia’s perceived interests must be respected and those who don’t respect them will have to be prepared to pay a price. If that takes war to accomplish, they just might be willing to do it.
163.”160 - agreed, and that’s going to be devastating to Labour, particularly in the North and Wales / Scotland where a larger proportion of the electorate is employed in the public sector when compared to the South / East Anglia.”
My children went back to school yesterday, just long enough to take a note home to say that the school would be closed today because some of the staff were striking. My sister works for a department in her local council, she had a day off too because she was going to be the only member of staff at work today.
We Lib Dems will resume our stupendous momentum at our conference when everyone will see we have all the answers to tomorow. We very sadly had to decapitate our leader again last october, but Clegg is fabulous and carismatic. First we’ll overtake Labour, then the Tories at the end of next year, there’s just enough time to win the next election, and we’re very excrited.
167.”Kenneth Rogoff’s prediction of a huge US bank going under at some point in the near future coincided with my views”
I read about that prediction yesterday, mixed messages coming out of America on the economy front. Some saying the worst is over, and then you read something like this.
173. Ok. It is indeed late. Past my bedtime in fact.
163 Thanks, hunchman. I wonder if the SNP has been the beneficary of the disillusioned public sector vote north of the border lately?
I’ve often wondered if this theory of sporting success and it’s political ramifications stacks up.
In 1973 Union Jack waving Rangers fans saw their team win the European Cup Winners Cup with a similarly Union Jack waving fest at Ibrox when they returned to Glasgow. Several months later that stadium was in a constituency won by the SNP with a huge swing.
In 1978 the Hamilton by-election was brought forward by one day because the World Cup finals were starting the next day. Scotland was the only UK team there. Confidence was high as the Tartan Army was “on the march with Ally’s Army”. The result was the only by-election where the SNP has ever had a swing against it even although their candidate was the high profile Margo Macdonald who was born and brought up in the constituency.
The notion that sport can affect politics seems to come from the 1970 election where Labour lost shortly after England were ejected from the World Cup finals by Germany.
Apart from that coincidence there is no other evidence that a sporting team’s success affects politics in any way unless someone can point to something more substantial.
171.”168- It might not be so suicidal, though. In fact, my best guess is that if the deal is either 1) let Poland be ravaged or 2) face all-out war with Russia, the choice would be 1.”
I agree entirely with the comments about Putin that Frances makes @168. If Russia were to do something as crazy as attack or try to invade Poland, not even the Germans would sit by and let that happen.
169. To state the blindingly obvious, Poland is not Georgia - it’s now well and truly integrated into Europe, socially as well as politically. In the highly unlikely circumstances it was attacked, the pressure on western governments to respond would be irresistible. And of course, it’s no small matter that it’s a member of NATO (as indeed are the Baltic states).
Turkey bordered the Soviet Union as a NATO member for many years (and indeed hosted US nuclear missiles at one stage), but we didn’t see Soviet troops charging across the border. If the often paranoid Soviet leadership wasn’t prepared to take such a crazy risk, it’s fanciful to think present-day Russia would.
Of course, the absurdity lying behind this debate is Stars and Stripes’ attempt to portray Obama as some kind of pacifist on the far left. By that logic, even Margaret Thatcher looks like a left-leaning social democrat.
178.Old codger see my post @175.
You remind me of all the people in Japan who were convinced North Korea was going to start a war following Kim Il Sung’s death. (I should know: I was there.) They were wrong.
161. We are going to take Carlisle this time, we will win Carlisle on a UNS if the Conservatives get an overall majority.
174. I’m really starting to doubt your sanity now S&S.
1) Russia will not attack Poland. It would be suicidal.
2) If Russia did attack Poland then war. Even if the Lib Dems were in charge.
Presumably you imagine Obama will simply tell Putin to stop being so nasty then burst into tears.
If a desperate, dictatorial North Korea did not attack the South (or Japan) in 1994 while the US was under Clinton’s control, why should an undeniably-less-desperate, undeniably-less-dictatorial Russia attack Poland while the US is under Obama’s control?
You people really should listen to what you’re saying — presumably the Soviets were tempted to invade Europe during Carter’s presidency? I mean, he’d have let those tanks keep rolling until they reached Calais, right?
185: ‘Russia will not attack Poland.’
I have in my hand a piece of paper…
187 — Putin isn’t Hitler.
174.”The goal is to get Russia’s neighbors, and the world in general, to recognize that Russia’s perceived interests must be respected and those who don’t respect them will have to be prepared to pay a price. If that takes war to accomplish, they just might be willing to do it.”
I agree that Russia is flexing its muscles and reasserting itself as its neighbours move ever more closer to Western Europe through the EU, and America through Nato. That is why it has chosen Georgia as an example, because of the political and geographical situation there at the present time.
They might even go further and look to the Ukraine, but to even risk a war over Poland, the Russians have got to be in a military position to take on the united might of Nato. I am no expert, but I don’t think that they are in any position to do that.
187. Okay. Thanks for the input.
188: ‘Putin isn’t Hitler.’
In what sense? (This is a serious question.)
191. Extermination of Jews?
I know there are a lot of kiddy-winks on here tonight who are too young to remember the Cold War, but seeing how NATO flunked it in Afghanistan I’m extremely worried that ‘New’ Russia might soon be up to its old tricks. And doing so with impunity. Very worrying times.
192: ‘Extermination of Jews?’
And he doesn’t have a small moustache either. Trite remark.
In every sense.
“Very worrying times.”
Paint your windows white and sit down with a copy of ‘Protect and Survive’, then.
Even in an intelligent site like this there are Putinites in abundance. Quite depressing really.
188. He’s not even Stalin, who of course also invaded Poland in September 1939 (in fact, seizing more territory than the Germans), and carried-off the country in its entirety as a “spoil of war” in 1945….
Look, Russia is the largest country in the world, with borders with 20 other (unstable or potentially hostile) countries. If anyone wants another World War, keep poking the Bear with a stick…
Remember the Cuban Missile Crisis was a reaction to the Yanks stationing Jupiter missiles in Turkey….
197. “Even in an intelligent site like this there are Putinites in abundance.”
Good grief. If I assure you there’s very little risk of Zimbabwe invading South Africa any time soon, does that make me a Mugabe groupie?
199: ‘there’s very little risk of Zimbabwe invading South Africa any time soon’
So you think Russia is the comparitive Zimbabwe and its surrounding former colonies are South Africa. Forgive me if I don’t bother to elucidate. I know the A Level standards are in decline but students today…
199.Frances, that comment is easily beaten by the patronising comment @193.
192. Do you know anything about the Second World War, apart from this factoid?
200.Pathetic.
200. Oh, for pity’s sake. I’m thirty-two years old, and for your information we don’t have A-levels in Scotland. Tell me, who exactly are these other ‘kiddy-winks’ of which you speak, and where did you gain this astonishing psychic gift that allows you to instantly discern the age of anyone you encounter on the internet?
201, 203:
Please at least indulge me by explaining why you think my post were ‘patronising’ or ‘pathetic’. I’m genuinely interested to learn.
IMPORTANT BETTING WARNING (sorry for shouting!)
Apparently some people are sending text messages, spoofed to appear as though they are from the Obama campaign, that claim they are the Veep announcement. Some say Clinton, some say Gore.
Be very, very careful unless you have this corroborated by an official source.
Idiots - this could cost people a lot of money.
Ann Cryer, MP for Keighley since 1997 following her husband who was killed in a car smash, is retiring at the General Election.
204 - The sabre rattlers have lost it - let them be, they are yesterday’s news.
205.What’s the point? Your comments @ 193 and 197 show that you have either not bothered to read some of comments that other posters have put forward, or your are just deliberately misinterpreting them.
204.Agreed, nite all.
208: ‘The sabre rattlers have lost it’
Well, I’m being harassed this way and that by the Kremlinites tonight - all for advocating democracy and nationhood. Never thought I’d live to see the day in this country…