What if the “golden rule” was proved right?
August 21st, 2008
Could Cameron really be heading for a 260 seat majority?
One of the things I often write when talking about UK polling is that based on two decades of general elections, every single London mayoral race and every single by election where there has been polling the “golden rule” has applied.
This says simply that the most accurate survey when tested against real votes has been the one that has had Labour in the least favourable position.
So the seat projections above are what happens when you input the overnight poll data into the Anthony Wells seat calculator. The outcome is quite dramatic - a Conservative majority of 260 seats.
The new survey is from Ipsos-MORI - the pollster which set up a major review of its methodology following the London Mayoral result. This took a couple of months and now involves only doing voting intention polls by phone, continuing to report headline figures taking only those certain to vote, and applying special measures to counteract the effect of public sector workers being over-sampled.
The results for August with comparisons on a month ago are: CON 48% (+1): LAB 24% (-3): LD 17% (+2). This is the second biggest lead for the Conservatives in several decades. The biggest, 26%, came in a YouGov poll after the May elections.
The certainty to vote issue is very important - without this filter the pollster would be reporting a Tory lead of 14% based on a split of CON 42% to LAB 28%. MORI always find that Labour do better on this calculation because party supporters have been shown at election after election to be less likely to turnout than Tories.
Arrangements on PB for the next fortnight: I’m off on holiday to the Pyrenees while Morus is heading off to Denver for next week’s Democratic convention. Paul Maggs is not available. So the normal pattern of postings might not operate and there could be longish periods when the moderation box is not cleared. I have a few articles which were “prepared earlier” and we will try to put up continuation threads if discussions get much longer than 500 comments. What a time to be away? I wonder what changes there be in the political world when I return on September 7th?
Coming up on PB: Later today, Obama running mate developments permitting, I will be publishing HenryG Manson’s betting guide on the Scottish Labour leadership contest. His tips might be worth following and there could be money to be made!
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
IMPORTANT BETTING WARNING (sorry for shouting!)
Apparently some people are sending text messages, spoofed to appear as though they are from the Obama campaign, that claim they are the Veep announcement. Some say Clinton, some say Gore.
Be very, very careful unless you have this corroborated by an official source.
Idiots - this could cost people a lot of money.
Ann Cryer, MP for Keighley since 1997 when she followed her husband who was killed in a car smash, is retiring at the General Election.
re 1. Agreed - idiots. But having kept us waiting for so long is it any wonder that spoofs start to appear? Anybody can “forge” a test message.
Others -2
This shows the stupidity of applying “GB” data over three different political systems. Look at the polls in Scotland. Does anyone seriously believe that “others” (which includes the SNP) are going to LOSE seats?
3. “Kept us waiting for so long”… How long does it normally take? I can’t really remember.
Morning! Interesting Poll! The Tory lead is as big as the Labour vote!
In some senses it is worse for Labour than this as the *SNP gains* are not factored in! If you combined this new poll with the poll conducted for the SNP recently; you are talking ball park figures of Labour 110 seats! I tried to merge the two sets of data a few days ago and Labour came out well below 150 seats on that basis.
There certainly is a movement for change in the UK; does the mid summer holiday rule apply to this i.e. Normally more favourable to Labour?
Here we are again my mash together of polls using the most recent Scottish one and the overnight one!
A Tory Majority of 240! I have been favourable in weighting to Labour in the English Regions! It is probably even worse for them: The Scottish dimension really does warp the whole picture!
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=48&LAB=24&LIB=17&ScotCON=13&ScotLAB=25&ScotLIB=14&ScotNAT=44&NorthCON=38&NorthLAB=36.5&NorthLIB=17&NWestCON=41&NWestLAB=34&NWestLIB=15&YorksCON=47&YorksLAB=28.5&YorksLIB=14&WalesCON=38&WalesLAB=29.5&WalesLIB=13&WalesNAT=12.6&WMidsCON=50&WMidsLAB=26&WMidsLIB=13.4&EMidsCON=51&EMidsLAB=27.5&EMidsLIB=13.6&AngliaCON=60&AngliaLAB=17.5&AngliaLIB=15.5&SWestCON=55&SWestLAB=9&SWestLIB=26.6&LondCON=48&LondLAB=25.5&LondLIB=16.3&SEastCON=62&SEastLAB=12.1&SEastLIB=19.9®ion=All+GB+seats+majority-sorted&seat=–Show+all–
This is the Scottish data:
http://www.snp.org/node/14146
If Labour MPs had any sense at all they would go back to Blair on bended knees and beg for his forgiveness and return.
Stark truth is that wipeout beckons with Brown in charge and there’s no-one else in the Parliamentary Labour Party who can do a better job.
At these sort of levels there is also no reason for the ‘new’ and ‘old’ factions to hang together any longer either as both begin to fight for future control of what is left.
The LDs, bizarrely, could easily be second biggest party in the polls by this time next year. Scarey thought!
6 If you are using that Scottish data you are wasting your time Martin , those are Holyrood voring intentions .
8. Oh- dear!
5: Labour MPs are fast becoming an endangered species!
Surely one needs to be saved for public display as a warning to future generations.
Dangling from a M4 Buslane lampost perhaps?
10. Get the taxidemiests in! They could have “one” mounted and put on a H of C plinth!
About —> 538.com — the Scenario Analysis section
———
In the last thread, I wrote this:
According to 538.com, Obama has less than 18% chances of winning the Elections if he loses Ohio.
Then, a poster called JAMES (a real prick) wrote and rewrote and rewrote that I was “mischaracterising what the 538 figures show”.
He said the figures do not “show your prospects if a certain event happens”.
Now, the section is titled SCENARIO ANALYSIS, and under the said title, there is a list of events.
It is a simulation, clearly, in which Obama wins only 17.XX% percent of the time he happens to lose Ohio.
So how can my “characterization” of the figures be wrong?
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
—-
You are a bully, James.
And a moron (coze in the figures, there is nothing about a margin of win or loss of Ohio…)
Go back to DailyKos where you belong…
I’m really amused looking at todays paper headlines: After doing
an internet search i see everything Brown does is undermined by the facts. For instance Brown saying he can win the next election combined with the overnight poll! Brown saying that he is going to help families; whilst the wholsale gas price has risen another 15% on news of a leak! Then their is more talk about the Brown / Miliband split!
For those commuseurs of political maschinations i don’t think this autumn will fail to dissapoint!
12. Well the Daily Telegraph has an interesting piece saying that 9% of voters have a problem about Obama’s colour! The sad thing about this is those 9% of voters will be more motivated to vote because basically they don’t want a black man in the white house. The polls have also tipped in McCain’s favour: Clinton must be well peved! So close but so far!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/johnmccain/2592093/John-McCain-topples-Barack-Obamas-poll-lead.html
Interestingly enough i wonder whether Obama will get a poll bounce after convention?
Anthony Wells’ “Others” figure of 10 looks decidedly odd. The latest YouGov Scottish Westminster poll had SNP 36% vs Labour 29%. Look at Electoral Calculus Scottish pages for a better idea.
14 - Of course he will, wall to wall coverage for a week and everyone comparing another pedestrian speech to Pericles funeral oration in an act of mass fawning. He will bounce.
McCAIN NOW FAVORITE TO WIN THE ELECTIONS
McCAIN NOW FAVORITE TO WIN THE ELECTIONS
McCAIN NOW FAVORITE TO WIN THE ELECTIONS
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
15. Yes I should have done that poll using those figures! I will have another go!
17. That’s an interesting site - Thanks!
538.COM
…when the election is close… McCain has appeared to develop a slight advantage in the electoral math. There are several states on our map that are colored light pink, meaning that they tip very slightly to the Republicans; these include Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Montana and Nevada, in each of which Obama has better than a 25 percent chance of winning, but less than a 50 percent chance.
There are a fairly large number of scenarios, then, where Obama comes tantalizingly close to a victory, but loses several different battleground states by mere points or fractions thereof. This dynamic is fairly fluid, however, and if Obama were able to get a toehold somewhere like Colorado or Virginia, it could quickly reverse itself.
Does all of this mean that you should short Obama in the futures markets, which still show him as roughly a 60:40 favorite?
Not necessarily. Our model accounts for the topline results of the polls in as comprehensive a way as is possible, but it does not account for nonpolling factors such as turnout and ground game, macroeconomic conditions, or the probability of certain future events (like the conventions) tending to favor one or another candidate.
O/T, but going back to last night’s thread, wouldn’t there be a risk that if Russia attacked Poland, or the Ukraine, it might very well get beaten? I doubt if either country would be a pushover, militarily, and the Russian army is hardly what it was 50 years ago.
OBAMA/McCAIN — WIN PERCENTAGE
BETFAIR (last price matched) : 62.1 / 35.7 %
INTRADE (last price matched) : 59.2 / 38.1 %
538.com (last price matched) : 47.9 / 52.1 %
McCain rocks!!!
21. Interesting point - The US. will defend & the UK will also in the event of Attack as poland are in Nato. I should imagine Polish military equipment is better than Russian now. Poland joined Nato in 1999!
22 –Erratum
538.com (projection) : 47.9 / 52.1 %
Following today’s Ipsos-MORI poll (and using a more recent all-Scotland poll than I was using previously), I project:
Con 386 (+178) [+2]
Lab 199 (-147) [+5]
LD 31 (-36) [-3]
SNP 8 (+2) [-4]
PC 5 (+3) [nc]
Oth 21 (nc) [nc]
Con majority 122 [+4]
Mike Smithson - latest veep rumour is good news for you - Jim Geraghty at the Campaign Spot is hearing from many Dems that it is Hillary.
I got to give it to Obama for keeping the rumours flying! we had Sat campign stop in IN, then succession discussions for the statehouse in VA, now plenty of senior Dems telling NRO it’s Hillary….
21. The poles have some interesting equipment both Mig 29’s and F16’s!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish_Armed_Forces
Has Al-Beeb seen the light…?
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7573432.stm
And more worrying EU-led, ID-card-centric reform?
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7573004.stm
I draw your attention to the last three paragraphs:
But there have been concerns that it is no longer up to the job of providing reliable data on which to base important public spending decisions.
The ONS is looking at other methods of counting the population, such as a compulsory register of addresses.
In May, MPs on the Treasury select committee said the 2011 census should be the last where population is counted through the collection of census forms.
So the census still works in the ‘States, but does not conform to Europe’s faith in socialist-control of the masses? Time to leave Europe behind. May I nominate Nick Palmer for the M4 bus-lane role…?
29. Now - Now! I can think of far better candidates to string up from M4 lamp posts! For instance irrating people like Angela Eagle or that stupid female MP from blackpool who sprang to Brown’s defence recently.
Hillary tightening rapidly on Betfair. Now at 3/1
Surely Clinton would be the worst candidate for VP - she would overshadow Obama plus invigorate all the anti-Clinton vote? Indeed the 9% rasist vote & the missoginist vote combined must be quite something! Democrats must be sucidal!
22. McCain is not yet favourite to win, as the betting shows. He may have an current projected advantage according to 538 but as with the UK seats market, there are reasons for the discrepancy between current projections and the betting.
One of the main ones is spending and money. McCain is spending money at the moment (in part because of funding rules) at a much faster rate vis a vis Obama than will be the case in the Autumn. Providing that money’s well spent it should have some impact on the polls but the question punters need to ask is ‘will that be long-lasting?’. The answer is almost certainly no. Once Obama’s spending kicks in, I’d expect him to pull back all his current deficit and open up his own lead. There are also likely to be questions about how well a septugenarian will hold up to two months of really hard campaigning. Perhaps a slip (ill-tempered snap?) based on tiredness is the most likely consequence.
Of course, Obama could and will make his own mistakes, and the biggest risk he currently seems to be running is a hubristic campaign which could turn voters off, nullifying his funding advantage. Still, events will have a large part to play in the next two and a half months, and the expectation is that they will favour the Democrat.
Uk has 17 Gold’s now! John Major must be cheerfull today! His National Lottery enabled some of the talent to be unleashed!
32 re Clinton wrong (Martin Day).
Clinton is the best choice, particularly now the race looks tight. She shores up the Democrat base. Ask Labour activists here what happens when your supporters stay at home on election day.
Obama and Clinton also complement each other’s campaigning styles. Since Obama’s appeal is partly that he is above the fray, he needs a streetfighter to do his dirty work.
35. I know what you are saying but i think it is a Zero sum game, when your VP plus Bill overshadow you and your selection motivates the otherside to vote for their candidate!
#34
We have to assume that Gormless and the MacBairns are still recovering from jet-lag. Let’s hope they take the rest of the Beijing-day off, and Phillips Idowu secures third-place in the medal-table with number eighteen!
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 45% .. Lab 25.8% .. LibDem 18% .. Others 11.2%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 398 seats .. Lab 165 .. LibDem 51 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 146.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
35. John L: Clinton is the best choice, particularly now the race looks tight. She shores up the Democrat base. Ask Labour activists here what happens when your supporters stay at home on election day.
If Obama’s worrying about his core vote in this election, he’s in deep trouble.
A core vote strategy is only a good idea when it’s the difference between a defeat that can be built on and a wipeout, such as the Tories in 2005. If you have any hope of winning, the core vote should be with you anyway.
New CBS/NY Times national poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 45%
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/08/20/opinion/polls/main4368403.shtml
New NBC News/WSJ National poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 45%
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/msnbc/sections/news/080820_NBC-WSJ_Released.pdf
OK,
My prediction using Martin Baxter, with a suitable adjustment for Scotland only:
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.pl?CON=48&LAB=24&LIB=17&ScotCON=18&ScotLAB=27&ScotLIB=13&ScotNAT=39&NorthCON=38&NorthLAB=36.5&NorthLIB=17&NWestCON=41&NWestLAB=34&NWestLIB=15&YorksCON=47&YorksLAB=28.5&YorksLIB=14&WalesCON=38&WalesLAB=29.5&WalesLIB=13&WalesNAT=12.6&WMidsCON=50&WMidsLAB=26&WMidsLIB=13.4&EMidsCON=51&EMidsLAB=27.5&EMidsLIB=13.6&AngliaCON=60&AngliaLAB=17.5&AngliaLIB=15.5&SWestCON=55&SWestLAB=9&SWestLIB=26.6&LondCON=48&LondLAB=25.5&LondLIB=16.3&SEastCON=62&SEastLAB=12.1&SEastLIB=19.9®ion=All+GB+seats+majority-sorted&seat=–Show+all–
This will give the Tories a 244 majority, with the Nationalists on 40 all-told. It predicts four Tory seats in Scotland, and has Keith Vaz as the most southernly Labour MP outside of London and the West-Midlands.
My hunch is that a majority of 120 will be a stonking, realisable victory for DC. As posters have said before, placing a bet at 50-60 Tory majority (put, not lay?) seems a winner. But as a) I tend not to gamble, and b) we don’t know the date of the next election, I just don’t have the nuts to back my instinct…!
36 - I don’t think it is, it actually will unite the Dems completely. It also plays into change as it doubles down on Obama, the first black president and the first woman vice president. It sends out the message that it is all change at the White House not just a partial change.
29: Exciting life on pb.com - nobody’s proposed to string me up before! Before you do, fluffy, just a clarification of the (all-party!) Treasury committee view: I believe that they simply feel it’s cumbersome and antiquated to go trundling round every home counting heads like medieval King’s agents, and suggest using large-scale opinion polling instead - to find out census data such as N% being male and X% being of Polish origin, you really don’t have to ask every single individual in Britain. Sampling say 10,000 people anonymously would get accurate enough data without needing to pester everyone. I don’t think that even BannedHorse would find this a sinister proposal.
We already have a compulsory register of addresses for most adults, of course - it’s called the electoral register. The idea of using that is different from the Treasury committee one.
On topic, I wonder if MORI haven’t over-compensated for their earlier problems - only counting certains to vote AND discounting a proportion of public sector workers (while not correcting for other possible biases in a sample, say too many farmers or accountants) may be over-egging the pudding. But I agree with Mike that certainty to vote is really the key difficulty in prediction - I have lots of voters who say things like, “I’d like to vote for you and I won’t vote Tory but right now I’m not sure I want to support the Government”. What will they do in 2009/2010? I really don’t know, nor do they. Common sense suggests that some will and some won’t, and discounting them all is likely to be an overshoot.
I think that Hillary is a massive plus to the ticket. For a start she’s a fighter and knows how to play dirty - something that’s going to be really necessary against the senile war-monger. All the other potential VPs look tame in comparison.
People on here underestimate the feelings of a large number of women - particularly the baby boomer generation - who feel that Obama took the chance of having one of their gender in the White House away from them.
If indeed it is HRC then it explains the late announcement.
The choice will also make next week in Denver a unifying occasion which will give the party a good platform against the GOP - those people who gave us Iraq and under McCain would seem to want a lot more.
44 - My rule of thumb on canvass is to take 10% of your pledges and bin them as mis-canvassing. Of the don’t knows about 1/6 will actually end up voting for you so add them to your pile. If then when you add up your opponents votes you are broadly even in for and against terms then you should win through.
#44
Stringing-up? As in hanging?
Silly me, I must have mis-read the M4-gig. I thought that you’d be stuffed, and hung by you appendages.
You know, just like a puppet. You are a traitorous Labour MP aren’t you? [And what else would you expect from an English Democrat, Cadbury Roses?
]
re 44. Nick - I agree with you on MORI. I just wonder whether there are too many corrective factors in there.
The new public sector worker weighting is the firm’s answer to past vote weighting and quite a smart one. But having that element and only showing the 100 percenters might be going too far.
In previous polls the public sector factor has been quite significant and does tend to be much more supportive of Labour, if not Mr. Brown, than the rest of the electorate.
LS @ 39 re core vote. Picking Clinton is not a core vote strategy.
Again, in demographics as with campaigning style, she complements him. Clinton appeals to the base, while Obama picks up new voters, independents and even disillusioned Republicans.
And though Obama is not in deep trouble, the polls show he is no Usain Bolt: McCain has closed rapidly and may yet snatch the gold.
See http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/todays-polls-820.html for example.
Betting. Forget what we think should happen: who will Obama choose? I have backed Clinton at prices from 3/1 and 10/1 which will do me for now. My view is that Hillary is about 50% likely, so strictly any price above evens is value.
47. The Poll though is on trend with other recent polls though? Added to which those have been in the summer Holidays - I am assuming many are coming back from Holidays now!
45. Your heart rules your head on this one IMO: Obama might be the candidate closest to your thinking & HRC may also bring weight to the ticket. Problem is HRC will bring more problems as a VP candidate than positives.
44. Have these voters been in the Labour box previously - that must be very worrying for you if they are. Even a mass abstention will catastrophically affect you - Blame it on Brown!
Once more our glorious sailors have bolstered our medal tally. Of course, we’d have 20 golds by now if the Curse of Brown hadn’t struck.
Still got strong hopes in the BMX and triple jump though.
The General Election is still too far away to call. Now it looks a nailed on certainty that the Tories will be the largest party, but there are still variables to consider.
The most important is: will Brown still be around, and if not, who will lead Labour?
I don’t think Labour can turn the oil tanker of public opinion around, but a new leader could either accelerate (through bloodshed and party splits) or decelerate (unity, and an end to really bad PR).
Those who bet on the Tories to win the next election the day before the last Conservative conference must be bloody happy.
I noticed Brown is in Afghanistan, hopefully he will delay going to the Olympics a bit longer so he does not jinx the UK medal prospects.
I bet a few Labour MP’s are hoping for a stray bullet to hit Brown while he is in Afghanistan! Horrible thing to say but…..
I wonder if Cameron will re-shuffle his team this autumn as Brown has said he will not. Cameron could still go ahead and say that he is preparing for govenrnment.
46: sounds right to me, James. What’s your involvement in elected polityics been, as a matter of interest?
As you’d expect from a Clintonite I’d like to see her chosen, and certainly the media narrative on RCP has shifted strongly that way, to the point that choosing a less-known figure risks looking something of a let-down - “now the name youi’ve all been waiting for - it’s John Doe!” Are American politicians better-known to the public than in Britain? for instance, will Joe Public outside Indiana really know who Bayh is? This piece from someone who clearly thinks Biden best summarises the Clinton case well:
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/346742
A request to Jack W: thanks for reporting polls as they come in. Might it be possible to go a step further and let us know each time if it’s a survey or ‘registered’ or ‘likely’ voters? It makes a huge difference in Britain and seems likely to make at least some in the US - I’d assume Democrats tend to have more turnout difficulties, though Obama’s better-prepared ground operaiton might change that.
50 - I think that a Conservative victory is highly likely, I think others may correct me but I can’t remember in the last few years a more constitent lead in the polls opening up for one party at or around the same level.
Nick have you ever met HRC? Or Bill for that matter?
We’ve stuck some Dem vp prices back up at ladbrokes.
Currently
3/1 Bayh
3/1 Biden
3/1 Clinton
5/1 Kaine
8/1 Sebelius
12/1 Clark
47 If Mori produces outlying results then maybe it should be taken out of your ‘golden rule’ equation for the time being.
If it doesn’t, it shouldn’t.
The only real effect then is on morale. Partisans cling to the poll that tells them what they want to hear, even if the evidence says its likely to be giving some false hope. Its always ‘helpful’ to the debate if more than one pollster is reigning in the Tory lead.
Now Labour are down to Populus/Guardian ICM [when they aren't really bad too!]
53. Definatly looking like Tory Majorities to me.
55 shadsy. And Morus ??
55. 3/1 Clinton ? Some big money coming in ?
Mori’s new methodology — public sector weighting seems eccentric.
I’m uneasy about fixing sampling problems with weighting. ICM’s sampling by randomising final digits is guaranteed to oversample Labour supporters so they have to weight the life out of their results.
Mori uses “random digit dialling” according to its web site. Are there further details? It may be Mori is now over-correcting.
O/T on the olympics we now have more medals in total than in 1984 (now 39 then 37). 1984 was boycotted by the USSR iirc though. Discounting 1908 which is clearly an abberation when we got 146 medals in total mainly because in lots of events we were the only country competing then this is the third best medal haul ever. If we win 5 more medals of any colour it will be our best medal haul except for 1908!
The smell of deceipt hangs around Bill and Hillary.
Call me old fashioned but I like to wait to see people in office before they are proven to be liars [sorry - misspeakers].
Is Rod Crosby still predicting a hung parliment ?
I don’t think the Labour party has the stomach to remove Brown - they want him to go down carrying the can. The next war will be red on red.
Labour may annoy a section of the electorate who vote
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2429923.0.100_000_OAPs_could_lose_out_in_benefits_rules_reform.php
44.”and suggest using large-scale opinion polling instead - to find out census data such as N% being male and X% being of Polish origin, you really don’t have to ask every single individual in Britain.2
Nick, please don’t let your government wreck the present census format for future generations who will want to research their families.
62. I would be very surprised if Clinton was picked as VP - It would mean she was abandoning any prospect of being President. At least if Obama fails she can have a crack herself if she is not on the ticket.
Its the history of poll after poll after poll with huge leads that will be damaging within Labour ranks, I guess Nick Palmer will be clinging to ICM with the 15% Tory lead hoping that come the election 40/30 will produce a hung parliament.
There is a lot more dire economic news to come, irrespective of the drop in oil prices. We might even see a stagfation type rise in petrol prices at the pumps as the pound sinks against the dollar.
@62:
Christopher Hitchens’s book “No-one left to lie to” is a pretty devastating critique of what Obama deserves if he brings that foul, evil, manipulative, lying, vicious, corrupt, soulless harridan into shore up is dying campaign as part of some suicide bid to ensure Mac’s landslide victory.
I imagine Karl Rove will be rubbing himself with glee at the prospect of Obama’s making the most absurdly dimwitted political mistake of his career.
“Is Rod Crosby still predicting a hung parliment?”
Does Gabble still insist there’s no difference between passports and ID cards? Does Palmer continue to maintain the scheme will pay for itself?
Do NeoCons still equate every foreign leader they don’t like to Hitler?
Does Pope Benedict still practise Catholicism?
Do bears remain in the habit of defecating in sylvian settings?
68 - I think you are mistaken on this. It would make a landslide likely but for Obama not McCain.
67. I think GDP revisions are out today, the wholesale gas price has surged due to a pipe problem and unemployment is likely to get alot worse!
58. Morus 14/1.
You can’t be too careful at this stage, Jack.
re 55. Well Paddy Power still have 10-1 against Hillary -looks great value.
65. Actually that kind of survey methodology is used to construct the Labour Force Survey and has proved remarkably inaccurate at estimating ‘key’ numbers such as the % of workers of Polish origin.
That might be why Mr.Palmer and his chums are in favour of it, of course.
re 71 But Morus is Welsh - he just happens to know far more about US politics than just about everybody outside the Beltway.
@69:
Hillary Clinton is probably the most hated woman in America. She’s the GOP’s most powerful election winning machine.
The effect she’ll have on independents, centrists and Middle America, as they swing Mac to keep ‘the bitch’ one bullet away from power will be swift and devastating.
She will wipe out whatever modest gains Obama has made within weeks.
It will be a joy to behold.
Unfortunately, even though Obama is a vacuous shell of a man, I don’t think he’s that thick or desperate.
#66
Nick Palmer seeks to destroy the census so as to dilute the indigenous British identity! Whod’a thunk that…!
“you really don’t have to ask every single individual in Britain”
Bit pointless thinking NuLab’s going to rein in the Statism, don’t you say?
66 — what probabilities (and hence prices) do you attach to the various candidates?
Try putting numbers next to the names in shadsy’s post at 55 (but also add in A N Other).
This is always worth doing and can be instructive. The chances must add up to 1 (or 100 per cent): Obama will pick a running-mate. Often you find names you had ruled out need to be put back into play, otherwise the probabilities of the other choices are too high.
Let’s all have a bar-fight…!
http://www.order-order.com/2008/08/european-union-v-empire.html
Could be fun!
15. Stuart, this is why the SNP would lose a referendum if they ever called one:
http://tinyurl.com/6m5tpv
The Herald wrote a nice piece about Hoy winning all those golds for Team GB (and indeed, well done him!). Then the Scots Nats came on the site and started hurling abuse at Hoy, for daring to wave the Union Jack, calling Hoy’s dad a traitor, etc etc. Check the threads on the Herald for the rest of the week…
I particularly like this remark:
“The rest of the world won’t know if a Scot wins, as long as they are wrapped in the Broon Butcher’s Apron. Posted by: Donald Anderson, glasgow on 7:08am Wed 20 Aug 08″
For those that don’t understand the Nats mentality, the “butcher’s apron” is… the Union Jack. The flag of Hoy’s country. It’s a term generally used by extreme Irish republicans, but it now seems to have crossed the water.
What is remarkable is how the victim mentality of the Irish - somewhat more justified, historically - has so viciously infected the Scots Nats. This despite the fact that Scotland probably did more to expand the mighty British empire, per capita, than any other part of the UK. But maybe it isn’t so astonishing. Because Scottish nationalism is rooted, emtoionally, on a hatred and resentment of England.
This is why you will lose a referendum, Stuart. When it comes to an actual serious passionate debate, the rabid, nasty, anti-English element on your side (which is the hidden but beating heart of
Scottish Nationalism, so evident on these threads) will emerge into the light of day, in all its self-hating ugliness.
And then most Scots will think: Ugh, no thanks.
*test*
74 Everybody knows that neither Obama nor McCain are really US citizens and people are still backing them.
Come on Morus!
78. Might piss a few americans off with that intepretation of empire!
re 85. Shadsy - how much do you make if it is Morus - or Caroline Kennedy who was being mentioned last night.
82 - ‘philes vs ’sceptics, FT? That fight’d be over in under 5 minutes.
83. Big Chris Hoy (a Hearts fan) is proud of the Union Jack.
He’ll take the knighthood with honour and will ram the SNP coattail riding up Alex Salmonds tea towel holder with luck.
As I pointed out last night it’s the expected jobs-for-life MPs like Milburn (10.5k majority) who are going to wield the knife as with this sort of poll rating they are going to find themselves in ultra marginals if they manage to hold on at all. Perhaps Ave it is right and Tories win Bootle after all!
Mike enjoy your holiday. Didn’t the Miliband will-he-won’t-he speculation blow up the last time you were away?
Are we on track for a 240 seat majority? I don’t think so and not because of Mr Smithsons golden rule. I believe the generality of the polls and I suspect if there was an autumn election we might win big as predicted; but there won’t be an election till 2010.
Governments have all the levers of power at their diposal. I think Brown has a point when he says ‘what the people of Britain are concerned about is what’s happening to their mortgages, what’s happening to their gas and electricity bills, what’s happening to oil prices and petrol prices at the pumps. These are the issues they want us to address and look at. You will see us dealing with some of these issues when we come back in September.’
There will be a blur of initiatives and giveaways this autumn; basically paid for on borrowed money but there will probably be some totem ‘tax the rich’ gimmick unveiled at conference to please the left.
The BoE may ride to his rescue a bit, too. My bearish view on interest rates has been modifying somewhat, as it appears that house prices and retail sales *are* falling like a stone and now that the Euro is losing value against the dollar higher UK interest rates look out of the question, and we may even see rate cuts next year.
So mortgages and fuel/food prices might fall back a bit in ‘09 and although our recession will bite that year in terms of job losses and insecurity fears the sense of impending meltdown might fade a bit and in that circumstance I’d be surprised if Labour don’t pull some support back.
Add to that a very public love-in between Brown and Milliband (’it was all a construct of the media… he has always had my trust …. enjoys the full confidence of the PM bla bla..’) and by this time next year it may all look much closer.
82. Cute.
But a more viable medal comparison, as I said the other day, might be to lump together all the countries still ruled by the Queen, gawd bless ‘er - i.e. UK, Canada, Oz, NZ, and various outlying sunny places. Given that she DOES reign sovereign over these lands, they do constitute a valid political entity.
I think on that basis, Queenland. Or, ahem, “Greater Queen-of-England-land”, would be second, behind China. Beating the Yanks.
God Bless her Madge.
Do Miliband and his Blairite backers have the bottle to seriously challenge Brown for the leadership this Autumn? He threw down the gauntlet 3 weeks ago and if he doesn’t follow through now he’ll be badly tainted when Brown is thrown out (should he survive that long) after Labour is slaughtered at the next GE. Little David has already backed down once remember. Do it once more and it looks like he’s seriously lacking in backbone opening the way for a new generation, inc Purnell, to come to the fore in 2 years time.
91. That’s what I call a nightmare scenario.
91. Marcus - your description of “initiatives and giveaways” are exactly what people were expecting last autumn and last spring but Brown botched them both.
Why do you expect him to do a reasonable job this time ?
93. According to Baxter’s calculations on the MORI poll even James Purnell would lose his seat at the next election. If wiped out it will be David Miliband against Harriet Harman or Yvette Cooper. Pretty much no-one else is left.
87 I can’t really go in to absolute figures, Mike. It’s been a great betting heat and we’ve been very pleased with the business, but it’s not going to affect the share price. It might equate to one very poor horserace on a quiet afternoon, to be honest.
91. Brown just does not have luck on his side:
Everything Brown does is undermined by the facts. For instance Brown saying he can win the next election combined with the overnight poll! Brown saying that he is going to help families; whilst the wholsale gas price has risen another 15% on news of a leak! Then their is more talk about the Brown / Miliband split aka Nick Brown’s comments on Goergia!
I think you underestimate how dire things are for labour - they really are bad! 240 don’t look realistic but then again did Blairs 179 seat majority look realistic before 1997. I was shocked i can tell you but the writing was on the wall for years before. If Brown splurges money to try and buy votes it will backfire big time.
re 91 how can GB address the cost of mortgages - or is his supposed independence of the BofE not quite as independent as it seems.
91
The UK is still on course for a serious bout of stagflation. With a falling currency fuelling imported inflation, alongside slowdown/recession in most major sectors, the Bof E are very much between a rock and a hard place when it comes to setting interest rates.
Until the £1.4 trillion private debt and nearly £1 trillion public debt overhang unravels the situation only looks like getting much worse before it gets better.
UK plc and most of it’s residents will be living in drastically reduced circumstances in the next few years.
99. A shared equity scheme for 3 people in Sunderland. Or buying back 10 derelict houses in Manchester for “social housing”
The other interesting thing is fuel has gone down at the pumps in the last few weeks; Still high but not like it was a month ago.
Mike,
With reference to the current prediction which includes the LDs at 22 seats, ie -40, I would like to refer back to the tables you published (last week?) showing percentage votes in the last several general elections.
The percentage figures for the LDs were fairly stable over the whole period, ranging from 17-21%. And yet the number of our MPs has staedily increased over the same period. In fact we had a smaller % in the last two GEs than we had under Paddy Ashdown, but still our seats have steadily increased.
This suggests to me that the general predictions of the polls do not always translate smoothly into seats.
Beth
74 shadsy. WOW !!!!!!!!
Morus only 14/1 for Veep with Ladbrokes.
On the other hand …. is Morus really Evan Bayh ?? …. or indeed Hillary ?? …. Morus is big chums with Patricia the Punter - PB’s most famous cross dresser and Hillary is famed for her trouser suits !! …. Oh my god Morus is Hillary !!!!!!! Take that 14/1.
102. By this i mean Labour’s poll rating has continued to deteriot despite this good news.
Some more dire economic numbers this morning, this time for business investment - manufacturing and construction investment fell off a cliff in Q2, services investment down too.
Despite the methodological questions, MORI may well have their finger on the pulse. Come the autumn, as the nights darken, Labour’s poll ratings are going to plunge to underheard of depths.
106. Revised GDP should be interesting!
Morning all!
Shadsy, in all seriousness, I would like to place five of my English pounds on myself to be VPOTUS.
I am sure that, if elected, either a Constitutional Amendment can be passed, or I can get some photoshopped birth certicficate from some new-fangled ’state’ or something.
Would you mind e-mailing me a number I can call you on to place this bet? I fancy having a printed betting slip putting me at 14/1 for posterity! Sommat to show the kids one day…
I am, as always, at morus1516 [at] hotmail [dot] com .
#91
Oh, heck! SkyNews reporting that retial-sales grew in the last month and year-on-year!
And some bint from the British Retail Consortium has asked for the government to raise the minimum-wage, whilst average wages are slowing and the [Scottish] public-sector are striking for more money. Do they not teach Economics nae-more?
Stagflation and Sterling weakening hear we come. Will Rusty Brown bury the only worthy part of his legacy and scrap the independence of the BoE?
[Maybe he'll pass monetary policy to his chums at Northern Crock!]
83. There is a huge difference between anti-GB in a political sense and “anti-English” in a personal context. Most Scottish nationalists are the former but, in my experience, very few fall into the latter category.
Many Scots just don’t feel British. You can’t force them to be patriotic about the UK.
Are any more public-sector strikes lined up for the near future?
107. Nothing on the BoE website to suggest that revised GDP out today Martin ??
Depressed lefties should look here - this is how you run a country….
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7573830.stm
112. It’s out tomorrow.
112. I read something in the Daily telegraph yesterday that suggested that numbers out today would suggest a downward movement in projectd GDP. Not a fall though!
113,114.
I would expect Broon would want nothing overshadowing the news that we have the cleverest children ever and 110% of candidates got a A+ in their GSCEs..
115.
The “New York Times” looks at rural Pennsylvania and the challenge facing Obama there :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/21/us/politics/21penn.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Is sending Brown to meet troops wise?
Knowing how jinxed the bloke is would you want to meet the guy and shake his hand if you have your Neck on the line each day?
House-building down 19% year-on-year!
Pop-quiz: Which of nEU-Labour’s targets will be hit by 2020: Our Kyoto+ environmental commitments or another 3 million houses…? *)
Great news for Phillips Idowu: Boris is in Beijing!
Shame McBroon is not flying in one of those old Nimrod MR2’s that he deigns only fit for those her serve for Her Majesty!
Chris A at 99 - The BoE won’t be helping Brown intentionally but I think they will split on the side of interest rate cuts to limit the fall economically; especially if they are nudged in this direction by the Govt.
It’s not that long ago that ’single figure inflation’ was an impressive achievement even for a few quarters.
When I was being taught economics in the 1970’s it was generally thought inflation of 4% (then nothing more than a hopeless economists dream) was perfect for an economy, much less than that and you were supposed to be dangerously close to deflation!
119. Perhaps Miliband and the other global warming fanatics will be telling us a recession is a price ‘well worth paying’ to cut emissions, next.
120 FluffyThoughts. You mean Boris “Hanovarian” Johnson !! …. from the gene pool of “George II”
I knew there was something very sus about that blonde German bonce !!
I think the losses the LDs are expected to have are wildly exaggerated. Local issues are also involved when electing MPs and the LDs are good at harnassing on that. They also are helped with encumbancy, probably more than any other party. The local elections showed that things are pretty solid where we have sitting MPs also.
Shadsy is it possible for me to email you directly with an idea? If so could you send me your address to henrygmanson@hotmail.com. Thanks.
@108:
I am sure that, if elected, either a Constitutional Amendment can be passed, or I can get some photoshopped birth certicficate from some new-fangled ’state’ or something.
Well, it worked for Obama.
*ducks*
121. Marcus - things have come on a little since the 1970s, fortunately.
E,ON raise ‘lecie by 16% and gas by 26%.
We are working on a recovery package. No mae boom-and-bust! God help us!
Good Morning. On a recent thread, Mike posed the question of the number of seats the Tory’s would win at the GE and their overall majority.
Most PB bloggers voted for a majority of less than 100.
I voted for 110/120 majority.
Now it seems that most bloggers,(from reading the post’s), seem to agree, that with this latest Mori poll, a majority of plus 250 seats can be acheived. But nothing has drastically changed.
Brown’s Bum is still firmly stuck to his seat, and planning a resurgence. I as a right winger, (but not a tory), hope that this fails ignominously. But could thing change?
110. I have fairly wide acquaintance of you Caledonians, and I’d guess most Scots feel proudly Scottish - but ALSO British.
Of late the Scottishness has become primary, but that is a long way from saying the majority of Scots don’t feel British too. And this “prioritising” is no surprise.
If forced to give an answer, I’d say I felt English first, but then British. Then probably Cornish. Then Anglophone. Then western. Then male. Then white. Then a sex memoirist. Then a onetime Leeds United supporter. Then Tom Knox - international thriller writer! Then European. Etc etc.
Point being we all have multiple identities, some much more important than others. Most Scots surely value their Scottishness - but see no reason to destroy their fairly important Britishness to prove it. Especially when the alternative is to dissolve Scotland in the European Union - ruled from Brussels…
That’s why a referendum would be lost.
On one thing I agree with you. Having been ambivalent on the issue, I think Labour should just call the damn vote, along with the SNP. The vote might be Yes to independence - in which case - good luck to the Scots, Off you go. At least Labour would be finished in England for ever.
However I am pretty sure it would actually be No to independence, which would put the issue to bed for twenty years, minimum. That would be good, cause its getting boring.
Win/win. Let’s call the vote and have done with it. My suspicion is that the SNP don’t actually want a vote, for the reasons cited above.
Ah, the Union Jack is rising in Chingdao even as I write! Hoots!
Which political party will have a manifesto commitment to scrap the national census ??
The national Census is a £500 million waste of money and should be scrapped, according to a new report published today.
The New Local Government Network claims that the information gathered will be out of date by the time it is published and underestimate the number of people living in Britain.
The report argues that the survey, which is conducted every 10 years and due to occur next in 2011, cannot accurately reflect the true state of Britain because of poor quality information on households, high rates of population mobility, illegal immigration and a growing reluctance to fill in official forms.
The 2001 Census was criticised for undercounting the British population by 900,000.
108. Morus - shurely you mean posteriority!
Some quite justified criticism of George Osborne’s recent speech here. But it’s a pity Rentoul didn’t make the obvious point that both rich and poor have a vastly higher life expectancy than they had in Victorian times.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/08/by-john-rento-1.html
#123
Sorry Jack, but weren’t the Hanoverians related to the piss-poor Stuarts? That’s their claim to the Scottish-dependency that is the English-crown.
Anyhoo’s, like me Boris has Turkic-roots! We even both married beyond the Anglo-Saxon gene-pool!
Can’t inbreed like the Scots. We English have a future!
Footnote: Boris insults the Aussies! Loving it!!!
Ave it, big time!!!
:) 
:) 
134. I Like it Fluffy. Keep it up.
134 FluffyThoughts. Your name vill also go on the list …. Vot is it ??
Excellent Boris prog last night …. Turkish journo/politician done to death horribly mixed with Bavarian minor nobility and the princely royal house of Wurretenburg.
For those that missed the prog it is being repeated tonight on Beeb2 at 7.00.
136 - hmm. Was that “done to death horribly” or “horribly mixed”, there, Jack?
Just imagine if it wasn’t DC versus Loser, but Boris. His performance in Beijing is multi gold-medal!
No wonder Brown needs to hide in Kabul behind the Royal Irish Regiment! [I know a few Aussies who serve in the 1Batt.!]
O/T - Apparantly a load of Olympic horses have failed anti-doping tests!
136. Must be Pike!
136 Oopps …. Wurttemberg !!
139. You’ve been at it again, 2/1 the field.
@133:
Justified criticism? Sounds like pathetic leftie whining that Osborne just parked his tanks on their lawns but know there’s nothing they can do about it.
Fairness is a hard concept to define, but the way Labour view fairness and the way the people of Britain view fairness seem far removed.
Hence the whining.
136. I only saw about half of it! It was interesting though! The German blonde thoughts upthread occured to me as well!
When i went to see PMQ’s a few years ago I noticed Boris on the Backbenches at that time. For some reason a thought appeared in my head that he needed a german WWII Helmet to complete his look!
I told someone at work this and was surprised that this non-political person had heard of Boris and thought it funny!
138 - What has Boris said?
145. Something about slity eyes.
#136
Never watch Al-Beeb, sorry. You are sounding very insular today. I believe Senokot will clear the blockage!
Anyhoos, of for a walk, then liquid-lunch. Hopefully I’ve laid the field for the supremo: SeanT!
Ta’ra’!