What’s going to be the Hillary impact?
August 25th, 2008
Will McCain now put a woman on his ticket?
The McCain campaign wasted no time in putting out the above ad as part of its effort to exploit the Hillary factor within the Democratic party.
For Barack himself the Hillary element could dominate the convention with the former First Lady speaking tomorrow night and Bill himself on the agenda for Wednesday. How are they going to play it?
Meanwhile the former Clinton strategist who is now a fierce critic, Dick Morris, is arguing that Obama made a massive mistake in not having a female running mate. He suggests this has now left an opening for John McCain who is set to announce his choice at the end of the week.
He goes on: “..the most important thing is that Obama did not choose a woman. He needed one. With Hillary’s evident availability for the nomination, his failure to name her or some other woman stands out starkly to women voters. It doesn’t matter to them that he chose Biden over Bayh or Kaine. What matters is that he did not choose Hillary or another woman…Now, John McCain can take advantage of Obama’s blunder by coming back with a woman nominee for president. Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison would be an excellent choice. She’s been around for decades and is not going to start making mistakes now. Her nomination would be a signal to American women that McCain takes their aspirations seriously, even if Obama does not. Hutchison is not charismatic. But her circumstances would be if she were nominated. The prospect of a woman vice president would electrify women throughout the nation.”
Having failed miserably on the Barack running mate market I’m loathe to make any suggestions - except I’ll be putting a few quid on the female contenders for the GOP ticket.
Mike Smithson
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248 from the previous thread:
I sense that right now, somewhere in Bedford, slippers are being shuffled and our genial host is about to post his early morning thread. Before he does so, leading me to stay up even later, I’m turning off the laptop without delay!
Blimey, I wasn’t wrong either!
2 I’ve been laying Romney at 0.7/1 (1.7 on Betfair). He’s far too short at this price with so many contenders.
Mike has clearly made a quick recovery from his earlier Veep woes and is ready to start punting again!
Goodnight Mike and any insomniac lurkers.
I think this is absolutely on the money, Mike, as long as McCain could find the right woman.
He needs someone who, like Hillary, could genuinely be acknowledged as capable of being the first female POTUS. That narrows the field considerably, especially on the Republican side of the fence.
The ideal candidate would be a Governor (though a Senator or Congresswoman would be ok - just the burden of long voting records to attack), pro-life but not fanatically so (able to accept exceptions for rape, incest, or saving the life of the mother), a mother of children, and to have had a successful career outside of politics. Being a great public speaker is less important than being able to connect personally - a firebrand would cause fewer problems for Biden in the debates than a more softly-spoken candidate that he cannot afford to look like he is bullying.
Who would be on the list?
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson of Texas, Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska are probably the top three.
Senators Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe (both of Maine) are possibles, though if McCain won, it would be handing the Democrats a filibuster-proof Senate. The only other Republican female Senators are Elizabeth Dole (running for re-election in North Carolina) and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska (elected 2002).
Governors who are both female and Republican: Mary Jodi Rell (CT), Linda Lingle (HI).
There are only 19 female Republicans in the House of Representatives, and 12 of those have only been in the House in the 21st Century. Of the remaining 7, the only ones who might be considered are Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-18th, since 1989), or Jo Ann Emerson (MO-8th) if she doesn’t run for Governor. Mary Bono was a Scientologist, Kay Granger is pro-stem cell research, Sue Myrick is a paleo-Conservative who wanted to revoke Jimmy Carter’s passport, Deborah Pryce was involved in the Abramoff affairs, and Judith Borg Biggert is from Illinois.
So, if it’s a woman he wants, there’s not that many to choose from 6 Senators, 2 Congresswomen, 3 Governors, and a Secretary of State. Maybe Carly Fiorino - CEO of Hewlitt Packard. Only 13 even remotely likely choices. I’d go for Rice.
Rice has said in the past she is not interested in running.
It surprises me that Rice is not already Vice President. Cheney falling on his sword (or dodgy ticker) in her favour would have been an interesting exercise in Machiavellian fox-shooting.
BBC reports McCain mischief-making on the Hillary question which might be a straw in the wind.
John L@5: Was that just the standard politician’s “not interested”, or did she make a proper, emphatic denial like “If drafted, I will not run; if nominated, I will not accept; if elected, I will not serve; If I serve, I’ll bollocks it up on purpose” or whatever?
The problem with a female veep on the GOP ticket is there really isn’t anyone who either fit or be compatable with a candidate like McCain at the top of the ticket… the likes of Snowe and Collins are really too moderate for the GOP base to stomac, Rice doesn’t want it and would probably not take it, ‘Kay-Bay’ and Dole are really too old now so that leaves Palin who’s still very inexperienced.
Although, if the GOP were to opt for a woman I cant see how it would be anyone other than Palin.
#1
I thought Mike was cycling in the Pyrenees…?
8 - Someone get over to Mike’s house in Bedford, and catch that slipper-wearing burglar…
no pro-choocer, woman or man, is acceptable to the base and mccain’s trial balloon in that direction was shot down. A woman would be the best choice - Palin - but it seems he’s already settled on Romney and may have made him an offer.
Romney is a missedd opprtunity compared to a woman, but does bring executive and business experience and could help with Mormons in Nevada, Colorado, new Mexico and one other state I’ve blankedvout on, and pro-business voters in Michigan.
Condi Rice would be ideal if she wants the job.
Being black, female and (more importantly than either of the above) extremely talented with a proven track record at the very top levels of Government surely ticks all the required boxes.
Go - McCain ‘08 !!!!
Barrack Demogogues - losing everywhere. Defeat from the jaws of vicory or what !
Off topic, another journalistic defector from the Brown camp:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-cameron-is-wily-but-hes-beatable-907801.html
Hidden at the end of a typically lacklustre piece is an call to arms for Labour to ditch Gordon Brown. The list of Brown supporters is getting ever shorter.
12 - but he still has Nick.
Politico: Obama- Clinton feud reignites
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=F79F394A-18FE-70B2-A89BCF8A60A8C307
While Bill Clinton remains angry about how he and his wife were treated by both Obama backers and the news media — and he is particularly resentful at what he sees as unfair allegations that he tried to exploit racial divisions for political advantage — he has made the decision that he will put forward a positive face for Obama’s benefit at Denver.
“Sinn Fein will collapse the Northern Ireland Assembly if policing and justice are not devolved… “
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7580108.stm
The Texas Republican Party Attacks; Mentions Obama’s Brother’s Penury
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/the_texas_republican_party_att.php
Very good ads!!! I like…
“If Barack cares so much about your family , why doesn’t he take care of his family first?. Barack Obama lives in this house [Hyde Park home], wants to live in this house [the White House] , while his own brother lives in this one. (A picture of George Hussein Onyango Obama ’s shack in Nairobi.)
Latest Scottish Westminster voting intention sub-sample from ComRes, for yesterday’s Independent on Sunday. Usual caveats regarding sub-samples of GB-wide polls apply. (% change from UK GE 2005)
SNP 35% (+17%)
Lab 27% (-12%)
Con 18% (+2%)
LD 10% (-13%)
Grn 4% (+3%)
oth 5%
Electoral Calculus Scottish seat calculator:
SNP 29 seats (+23 seats)
Lab 17 seats (-23 seats)
LD 7 seats (-4 seats)
Con 5 seats (+4 seats)
Speaker (M Martin) 1 seat (n/c)
http://www.comres.co.uk/page19045521.aspx
The Scottish Westminster polls seem to be stabilising now, with the SNP in the low to mid 30’s; Labour in the mid to high 20’s; the Tories about the 20% mark (I always mentally add 2-3% to any Scottish Tory number); and the Lib Dems in the low teens (where they have consistently been since they got rid of Charlie Kennedy at the beginning of 2006).
17. Seems Scotland’s favourite new Olympian has some interesting views, Stuart. Views that may cause Wee Eck to regurgitate his porridge as he breakfasts at Bute House this morning.
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Chris-Hoy-Scottish-team-in.4422493.jp
An excerpt:
The call by the SNP for a Scottish team in the Olympics is “ridiculous”, says Chris Hoy. The cycling superstar added: “I wouldn’t have three gold medals hanging round my neck if I wasn’t part of the British team. I’m a Scottish athlete in a British team, and I’m proud to be a British athlete.”
etc etc
Curious. According to Frances the half-American Nationalist, Britishness is practically dead in Scotland. Weird, huh?
18. Shock, horror, not all people are in favour of a Scottish team!
Shock, horror, not all people are in favour of a GB team!
Shock, horror, not all people are in favour of Scottish independence!
Shock, horror, not all people are in favour of the British Union!
Variety is the spice of life. That different individuals have different views on an issue is a very good thing indeed. The SNP believe in the pen, not the sword, and as such all debate on Scottish constitutional topics is a mighty healthy process. Vive la différence!!
By the way Sean, I thought that your unprovoked attack on rape crisis centres yesterday was highly counter-productive. Such behaviour, over a long period of time here at pb.com, brings into question the value of your judgement on other matters.
#19
The SNP believe in the pen, not the sword…. Typical Scoots; all talk, no action.
The only way your nation will get independence is on the end of a hoof from England. Get over it!
There is a world outside your goldfish bowl. Who you cheering for for GOP VP candidate?
18. Hoy didn’t rule it out:
“Before anything like that could be discussed, he’d have to look at the facilities and resources in Scotland. At the moment, we don’t have an international facility for cycling. We don’t have the coaching or anything else in place.”
“The government would have to invest serious money in sport before they could start thinking of having their own team in the Olympics.”
It seems to be all about money and facilities for him as opposed to any sense of “Britishness”. That’s fair enough I think.
20. Kick away Fluffy Thoughts, kick away!!
Although I would prefer for Scots to vote positively for a confident future as a normal country, as a second best option I would be very pleased indeed if England kicked us out of the Union with a muckle great “hoof”. Go charge up on your oats boy!
There has been quite a lot of talk here at pb.com during the last few days about Scottish, Welsh and Irish Olympians. Someone asked how many medals Scots had won.
Here is the official Sport Scotland list:
http://www.sportscotland.org.uk/ChannelNavigation/Resource+Library/Publications/Scottish+Olympic+Medal+Winners+1900-2004.htm
… and some other lists:
http://www.sisport.com/sisport/1998.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sport_in_Scotland
19. lol, you silly oat-eating nerd. Whatever.
Mind you, you are right on one thing, the SNP certainly do “believe in the pen” don’t they?
For instamne, beneath the article containing the Chris Hoy “proud to be British” quote, those lovable Scottish Nationalists have penned a few “remarks”.
In the comments under the article, Chris Hoy is accused of being:
“a cringing North Britishman”, or taking “English gold”, of being one of a “parcel of rogues”, of being a traitor for singing the National Anthem, someone told him to “P!ss off fat boy”, another said “F**k off” to the cyclist, a further comment said Hoy is a “gibbering idiot”, a “repulsive, self-hating Scot”, another Scot Nat reckoned Hoy was “just a big posh laddie? Probably with a Tory daddy and tory thoughts”, and the concluding thrust was the “fat boy” should shut up, because “Scotland is far far bigger and more important than you are. If you had the guts you would fight FOR Scotland not against it… you want to win medals for GB then fine…you ride a f**kin bike fer f**ks sake…”
etc etc etc oh dear. And this is in an article published just this morning, and it’s not even… 8am.
*stifles laughter at predicament of SNP, with saltire-patterned g-string lying around hotel bedroom*
19. lol, you silly oat-eating nerd. Whatever.
Mind you, you are right on one thing, the SNP certainly do “believe in the pen” don’t they?
For instance, beneath the article containing the Chris Hoy “proud to be British” quote, those lovable Scottish Nationalists have penned a few “remarks”.
In the comments under the article, Chris Hoy is accused of being:
“a cringing North Britishman”, or taking “English gold”, of being one of a “parcel of rogues”, of being a tra1tor for singing the National Anthem, someone told him to “P!ss off fat boy”, another said “F**k off” to the cyclist, a further comment said Hoy is a “gibbering idiot”, a “repulsive, self-hating Scot”, another Scot Nat reckoned Hoy was “just a big posh laddie? Probably with a Tory daddy and tory thoughts”, and the concluding thrust was the “fat boy” should shut up, because “Scotland is far far bigger and more important than you are. If you had the guts you would fight FOR Scotland not against it… you want to win medals for GB then fine…you ride a f**kin bike fer f**ks sake…”
etc etc etc oh dear. And this is in an article published just this morning, and it’s not even… 8am.
*stifles laughter at predicament of SNP, with saltire-patterned g-string lying around hotel bedroom*
17 FYI The YouGov-Compass Observer(released yesterday)sub-sample for Scotland based on 179 respondents out of 2003 was:
SNP 35%
Lab 31%
Con 21%
LD 11%
Condaleezza Rice — Edmund in Tokyo @ 6 & Tory Boy @ 11 — remember Rice is not really a politician (she was plucked from academe) so does not relish campaigning and probably would be no good at it (witness Wes Clark last week blundering into a journalist’s elephant trap).
24. Thanks Financier. Those numbers are totally in line with all other recent (post May 08) data.
#23
Quote #124 from said site:
Richardinho,
25/08/2008 07:35:26
As Hoy points out, he has lived in Manchester for the past nine years. He is clearly permanently based there.
It’s time to stop this pretence that he is a ‘Scottish’ athlete-he is an English athlete.
23. Ha!! Lordy, lordy, the hypocrisy is breathtaking.
Just imagine for one moment if Steve Redgrave, Daley Thomson, Rebecca Adlington or some other highly successful English athlete said that a GB team in the Olympics is “ridiculous”, and that the pooled resources of an EU team would make it more likely they could rake in the gold medals, especially in team events, eg relays.
Can you imagine the splutters of outrage from the English blogetariat? And at the forefront of the public insults would be SeanT, without a scintilla of doubt. Ho, ho.
27 So when will it be time for seant to declare he is a Thai rather than British writer?
170 from previous thread : Nick Palmer wrote : 168: svejk, you are including Ashfield constituency’s share of Broxtowe council - it’s a common mistake.
He implies from this that its much better for Labour in Broxtowe if you exclude the Ashfield bit - and is a tad condescending in the process. Thats not my reading ! Its worse.
In 2007, the seat figures were :
Total Broxtowe : Con 16, LD 15, Lab 10, Others 3
Without Ashfield : Con 16, LD 13, Lab 7, Others 2
Good Morning. As I said in recent previous threads; Sarah Palin for McCain’s runnung mate.
Even got £20 @ 30/1.
17.24 It is interesting that using the Baxter forecast for the poll that you used, that Glasgow East would return to Labour with a good majority - the next by-election in Fife may confirm or not the true state of affairs.
Dick Morris is so rabid on anything to do with the Clintons that his motives and judgment are suspect - I wouldn’t put it past him to have wanted another woman VP candidate just to (possibly) annoy Hillary.
Mike - just wanted to check if you got my submission of a couple of days ago. No problem if it’s not suitable.
23: The comments that you quote seem straight from the seanT school of debate. Perhaps you’re a Scottish nationalist in denial? Time to come out of the wee closet, mon.
The SNP Maxwell chap forgets that simply being an independent nation doesn’t automatically give you the right to enter every Olympic event. There were probably hundreds of events where Britain had the right to enter a team or up to three individual athletes, had they met minimum qualifying standards, but did not.
As a general rule, if a Scot was unable to compete as part of team GB, then they quite likely wouldn’t have been able to compete for Scotland either. The exception may be some events where Team GB set their own minimum qualifying standard (tougher than the Olympic one) eg. swimming, although that really just denies a few people the chance of going out in the first round of multi round events.
27. And how many successful athletes owe their success to training facilities, coaching etc abroad?
What country is Manxman Mark Cavendish based in? Who sponsors his team?
And yet he rides for GB!! Mmmmm…. Das ist not fair!
27 - the conditions of Team GB Lottery funding are that he is based in Manchester. EVERY GB cyclist is based in Manchester.
Have now read the rest of the threads.
Condi Rice would be a very poor choice for McCain as VP. First, although greatly experienced and respected, she has made many enemies as well. Not only that, but she looks worn-out, and her glum countenance would put anybody off.
#35
Your paranoia is approaching Nick Palmer’s heights. That was a comment posted upon a Scoottish newspaper web-site.
Any athlete should compete for the country of their choice (qualifications applying), and it is their decision and not any politicians.
It’s not me who seeks to hijack every thread to discuss the placement of the gravel within the [Scootsland] goldfish bowl. So can we draw a line, and try to stay on thread? Once again I’ll ask you a US-election question: Who would you like to see be the GOP VP candidate?
#37
Not only that, but she looks worn-out, and her glum countenance would put anybody off.
Could say the same about Mr Brown. Obviously she = he! [Though Boris managed to make him laugh last night!
]
Nick at 33. I have got it and I thought I had emailed you. I’m planning to run it when we are less US focused.
Is Hong Kong an independent sovereign state? Or Guam? No? Shock, horror, then why on earth do they have teams at the Olympics? Tis an outrage. Come on Siamese Sean, give us an anti Hong Kong rant. Pretty please!
38. “Who would you like to see be the GOP VP candidate?”
None of my business. Americans are perfectly capabable of running their own affairs without any input from me.
New CNN/OPR and USAToday/Gallup National polls :
CNN/OPR
McCain 47% .. Obama 47%
USAToday/Gallup
McCain 45% .. Obama 48%
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/24/election.2008.poll/index.html
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-08-24-campaignpoll_N.htm
23 - I found many of the comments pretty pathetic. A bit like the guy who called Chris Hoy a ‘unionist bastard’ because he had the temerity to win a Gold medal for his country.
It’s sad that they can’t accept that some Scots want to remain Brittish and that doesn’t make us traitors and that doesn’t make us English.
27 - I wonder what nationality that makes Sean Connery?
I feel sorry for Chris Hoy — he is primarily an athlete, whose political opinions (whatever they are) he is entitled to keep to himself if he wishes.
It is sad that his real achievement is now overshadowed by people arguing whether he should be representing Scotland or Britain.
16. Interesting ad by Mccain. To me it’s effectiveness is reduced to zero or below by the line “….he’s living the American dream…”. It slightly depends where you’re coming from but to anyone who believes in ‘a society’the gloating sounds worse than the hypocricy.
New Zogby Interactive National poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 45% .. Barr 4% .. Nader 1%
http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1546
12.Thanks for that link, the article is worth a read because it is so OTT. Cameron should frame it and put up in his toilet, its beyond parody outstripping anything that Polly Toynbee could manage.
18.”The call by the SNP for a Scottish team in the Olympics is “ridiculous”, says Chris Hoy. The cycling superstar added: “I wouldn’t have three gold medals hanging round my neck if I wasn’t part of the British team. I’m a Scottish athlete in a British team, and I’m proud to be a British athlete.””
Seant, does not surprise me at all.
#44
Too true.
@46 Jack W.
Despite a Denver Bounce, Obama will lose.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/08/25/do2502.xml
44. Agreed. But one can hardly blame The Scotsman for asking him! However, I think that both he and his parents will be horrified when they see the press clippings when they get home.
46. zogby has to be the worst pollster around, wasn’t it showing a 5 point lead for mccain just last week?
Nick, Will your contribution to the site be marked with a warning as to the content?
I was thinking that you could uses little gyroscopes and stars, in the sort of one star spin, two star spin, right the way up to a full blown 5 star spin rating
@51:
Volatility, isn’t it.
@52:
I’m afraid that spin is already quantized. You can only have spin up or spin down.
‘Sinn fein threatens to collapse Executive’
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/sinn-fein-threatens-to-collapse-executive-13948499.html
Rice would make McCain vulnerable (in a way he seems to have escaped so far) to the Democrat claim that he would represent a Bush third term. Absolutely right about her looking glum - her facial expression reminds me of a constipated vulture.
I agree that the only possible female VP picks for McCain are Palin, Rice and Hutchison, but the first two of those are problematic.
Palin, in her second term, would be great. In the middle of her first, it rather blows up the “experience” meme McCain is - wisely - pushing. Picking Rice ties you to all aspects of the Bush foreign policy…which may not be where you want to be.
Which leaves Hutchison, a rather bland southern patrician lady, but one who won’t alienate anyone, is certainly experienced and probably plays well enough with “soccer moms” (I hate the term, but can’t think of a better one) and angry Hillary-ites.
She would hardly be any more exciting a pick than Biden…but probably a smart one.
@55:
Given that Sinn Fein don’t (I’m guessing) really want direct rule from London, I’m guessing this may be a bluff to try to force the DUP’s intransigent hand.
In theory, the DUP are also in favour of devolving policing to the executive.
Background to the Northern Ireland Executive story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7573355.stm
56 - And don’t forget the other big political news.
http://www.theherald.co.uk/politics/news/display.var.2432479.0.LibDem_leadership_too_close_to_call_amid_summer_of_political_upheaval.php
I’m hoping for Ross Finnie myself.
54 What about arrows with the gyroscopes pointing up or down?
O/T US Open tennis. I strongly fancy American Wayne Odesnik to beat Italian claycourter Fabio Fognini in the US Open this evening. Odesnik has improved on the hardcourts this year and has played well in the last couple of months.
Fognini has hit more double faults than aces this year which isn’t the end of the world on slow clay courts, but he really should be exposed on this fast surfaces. Both players met earier in 2008 when qualifying for Indian Wells on a similar surface. Odesnik won 6-1 6-2. Odesnik is 8/11 with stanjames.com which is bigger than his Betfair price. I’d make him a 2/7 shot. The match is scheduled for sometime around 5.15pm UK time.
@61:
Oh, you and your bloody gyroscopes. That’s all we ever get from you. Gyroscopes, gyrosocopes, gyroscopes. I’m sick of hearing about GYROSCOPES.
SeanT is not in Thailand.
TOM KNOX is in Thailand. Tom doesn’t have a nationality, he is beyond such things. He is a top international thriller writer, equally at home in the stews of Bangkok as the salons of the Boulevard Saint Michel - you’re as likely to find him halfway up a Bhutanese mountain, learning the noseflute from a 90 year old lama, as you are to encounter him on the Patagonian pampas, tending his unique herd of albino wolves.
This global attitude gives him a unique international perspective, which lends his comments here great value, and allows him to see how laughably amusing are the SNP’s desperate contortions over proud British athlete Chris Hoy.
Hoots!
49 weathercock. This being the same Janet Daley who said Hillary couldn’t lose !! Ooppps.
51 Dan. I’m picky with Zogby but then again the new USAToday/Gallup I noted at post 43 is their latest since their McCain +5 poll that had the MSM in a tizzy last month.
If you have time you just have to trawl through the cross tabs of these polls and assess its credibility.
32. I’d be wary of doing that. My own rule-of-thumb is that by-elections produce a swing a little under double that being indicated by the polls at the time (though that has to be adjusted to reflect the position of the various parties going in to the by-election). Listing Glasgow East as a likely Labour win looks sensible to me - Labour almost certainly will win GE at the next general election, where the electorate there know that the real choice is between the Tories and Labour. Similarly, even though the national polls predict a Labour hold in Glenrothes, that doesn’t take into account the by-election protest boost that the party challenging Labour will get in a Labour held seat.
Ok, my thinking - as an English Democrat - for GOP Veep:
Wimmin: I’d love to see Condi, but uncertain her heart is in it. Kay Hutchinson has name recognition, but what has she done recently?
Hispanic-vote: Jeb Bush. Unfortunately the family name is tarnished.
Black-vote: Colin Powell. Not sure if he’ll return to politics, but he may consider it now that Rummie has long-gone. May be seen as too moderate, but could dis-entangle the West from Iraq, after a fashion.
Good-Governance: Mitt Romney. Religion may be a problem, and he may not move swing-states. Would not add that much to the McCain ticket.
The Republican Right: Col. Oliver North. Would discount Barr, but might undermine the McCain at the centre.
My knowledge of US politics may be limited (other then FoxNews
) so I cannot comment upon all possibilities. My choice would be - in order of preference:
1) Jeb,
2) Mitt, then
3) Colin, but would love to see
4) Ollie!
@64:
I learned the noseflute at university. I imagined it would be a useful route to a large coterie of catamites.
I’ve been a bloody fool.
@67:
Romney? Good governance? He’s a big business sleazebag.
@67:
Don’t forget that Morus is still in play.
12. It will be a sad day when pre-pubescent journalists like Hari have any influence on the Labour leadership.
On the Scottish Labour leadership Iain Gray’ lack of charisma is highlightd in this interview with Scotland on Sunday:
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Former-teacher-vows-to-stand.4421879.jp
You can see why he is Brown’s favoured candidate:
“My objective is to be First Minister. If I have learned one thing over the last four weeks it is that I want to do that even more than I thought I did.”
Absolutely no ideas about how he’d beat the SNP to get there.
Meanwhile more nifty media work from rival Cathy Jamieson on GB sports teams:
http://news.scotsman.com/latest-scottish-news/Jamieson-backs-GB-football-team.4422299.jp
Is there anything to stop McCain picking either:
Hillary Clinton
or his wife as VP candidate?!
Just interested…they would put the cat amongst the pigeons!
More charming remarks from the Scottish Nationalists on Chris Hoy:
“Jist another greedy athlete”
“a tra1tor?”
“Mr Hoy is ridiculous”
“What do you think Glasgow is Building Mr Hoy.And to think they are going to name it after yourself.Thats like naming it Duke of Cumberland velodrom.”
“Hoy is like a typical footballer who kisses the badge and pledges allegiance to whatever team he is playing for at the time (or until a better offer comes along)”
“the arguments behind Hoy’s assessment are no better than what you would expect a small child to come up.”
“Hoy is as thick as mince”
“PATHETIC”
“Hoy, you are a joke, stay down in Manchester when ye get back. Who wants to see your ugly puss all over scotland anyway.”
And so on and so forth.
71. Indeed Henry, but this is what Blairism did for Labour - it turned a once proud - if declining - British political movement into the creature of an ugly clique of hypocritical careerists.
51. there is volatility, and then there is just being a bad pollster, from what we’ve seen from the primaries as well, zogby is the latter.
Hari’s Wiki entry (which reads as if he wrote it himself, so dire is it) includes the following giggle:
He supports some policies of the Labour government, but opposes others, like the mistreatment of asylum seekers and tax cuts for the rich.
I had no idea these were government policy.
Usually avoid commenting on American politics, instead preferring to enjoy reading the comments of other more knowledgeable posters on here.
One thing that struck me about Obama’s choice of Biden, on hindsight he does seem to tick all the boxes where Obama is seen as weak among working class Americans both inside and outside the Democratic tent. Doesn’t McCain have the same problem from a Republican standpoint? Therefore he might be compelled to go for a more solid right wing Republic running mate, although picking a female could give his campaign a real lift?
44.”It is sad that his real achievement is now overshadowed by people arguing whether he should be representing Scotland or Britain.”
Totally agree Gwynfa
50.Stuart, the only reason this topic is making a splash with the media is because Alex Salmond&Co brought it up for their own political reasons.
Thanks to them, some of our athletes are going to come home and find that instead of basking in the glory of team GB and all that hard work, they will be quizzed about this and subjected to idiotic comments and insults over where their loyalties lie.
This will backfire for the SNP because its neither smart or attractive politics. It reeks of petty nationalism, which is a shame because part of Alex Salmond’s success has been the ability to avoid that elephant trap until now.
72. Cathy Jamieson is definitely on the ball on this GB football team issue. She is a smart cookie:
‘Let Scotland team represent Britain at London Olympics, says Cathy Jamieson’
“Labour leadership contender Cathy Jamieson made the claim yesterday as she proposed a contest between all four home nations to decide who should represent Britain at the games.
She spoke out as the debate continues to rage over a united GB side. But Jamieson is on a collision course with Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who strongly supports the idea of a joint Scots, English, Irish and Welsh team.”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/08/25/let-scotland-team-represent-britain-at-london-olympics-says-cathy-jamieson-86908-20710903/
Unfortunately for you and your party Henry, I just cannot see her winning. The whole of Scotland would benefit from a strong Leader of the Opposition. But Iain Gray?!? Lord preserve us!
Re 12. Is this true?
“The PM-in-waiting has built a string of images that create a fanciful David Cameron who is Normal and Nice. Here’s an example: last week, Cameron holidayed in Cornwall, and summoned the press to photograph him playing Frisbee while his wife giggled in Boden catalogue swimwear. Then he waved goodbye and went on another holiday – on a £150,000 fleet of private yachts hired by his multi-millionaire father-in-law”.
71.HenryG, Cathy Jamieson is coming across as the candidate more able to read the political mood and respond. She also has IMHO a much higher profile with ordinary Scots outside the Labour party.
79 cont…If so it’s much better material than McCain had to work with in his ad linked at 16.
80. That is actually a very clever way out of the conundrum. It saves the four home football associations from any threat to their status, but it lets the UK have a team at the Olympics. So let’s do it. Have a Home Nations tournament - then the winner can go through to the Games.
Quite frankly, given the pathetic state of the English footie team, I think Scotland would have a jolly good chance of winning, maybe even Wales.
And I’d be happy to see Scotland represent us. Playing proudly under the Union Jack, sorry, butcher’s apron.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 46% .. Obama 49.5% .. Others 4.5%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 176 .. Obama 255 .. Toss Up 107
Changes Since Last Projection - Indiana moves from Toss Up McCain to Likely McCain. New Mexico moves from Likely Obama to Toss Up Obama.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 252 .. Obama 286
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
77. This could be the first big error by the SNP. The comments referenced above reveal a very ugly face of Scots nationalism, disturbingly similar to the fanatical, semi-fascistic hate-mongering one sees at the wilder fringes of Irish nationalism. Most decent Scots will be repelled by these kind of attitudes, and the SNP is very foolish to be pandering to them.
77. ChrisD - “… because Alex Salmond&Co brought it up for their own political reasons.”
Err… Chris… what the heck has Gordon Brown just been doing with the Olympics? The British nationalists have been playing politics with the whole Team GB thing. And how!! You can hardly blame the Scottish nationalists for putting a counter-proposition.
66 Agree with your rule of thumb in principle, but will not the next election in Scotland be focused on SNP/Labour and not SNP/Tories and thus with the present moods and swings, should not Scotland be treated as a special case outside of the pollsters’ trends?
79 Did he hop from yacht to yacht ? 150k for a yacht is small change these days. Fleet of yachts my eye!. Perhaps he just wanted a family holday away from the press, and I dont blame him either.
I will be burned at the stake for this but if I was a registered US voter I think I’d vote McCain just out of bloody mindedness. I always was secretly rooting for Vinick rather than Santos and now its real. I just don’t see where the Obama ” Age of Aquarias” band of troubadors is going other than a 2010 mid term car crash of broken dreams and disallusion. Assuming he gets that far as he seems to be stalling. Like a broken stepford wife. perfect but just repeating the sme platitudes again and again.
At least with McCain you have the grit for a possible if unlikely pearl one day. Its a pity Rice doesn’t want it and looks as knackered as she does. Otherwise she’d be brilliant. Its also sad Dole is so old. If i remember corrctly shes an ex cabinet member, CEO of the American red Cross and ran her own Presidential bid before the Senate.
Still Obama has left the board wide open for a smart move for Mccain.
I said a prayer at Evensong last night for Ross Finnie.
Runnymede - I don’t think this is an error by the SNP. I imagine Alex Salmond and his colleagues are horrified by all this reaction to Hoy - if there’s one thing likely to upset his carefully laid path to a referendum, let alone independence - it’s an outbreak of vicious, embarrassing, juvenile, English-baiting xenophobia from ultra-Nationalists.
Because nothing is more likely to turn the average sensible Scottish voter away from Nationalism than this kind of ugly stuff.
But the trouble is the absolute hardcore of Salmond’s support comes from these kind of voters, real nutter antiEnglish nationalists. And he needs them as they are the committed activists etc.
He’s done a good job to keep them hidden until now, but I knew the Team GB success and Hoy’s remarks whould bring them out from under their mossy little rocks, which is why I was watching the Scotsman and Herald comment threads. And sure enough - out they came.
This is why I think, increasingly, that Scotland will never vote for independence, but will settle for a kind of civic nationalism within the UK. I think if a referendum were ever held all the anger and hatred and “butcher’s apron” bollocks that lurks within the hardcore Nats would just burst out, thoroughly disenchanting the Scots voters, and ensuring a defeat.
And while we’re on the subject, another of Scotland’s proud Olympic medallists has joined the debate.
David Florence, who won canoeing slalom silver said: “I am very proud to be Scottish, to have been born in Aberdeen and have Edinburgh as my home town. But I am also very proud to represent Great Britain and everything that stands for, which is not just Scotland.
“I’m as proud to wear the union jack as I am the saltire. I don’t have a problem separating my pride in being a Scot from being British at the same time.”
I think this is the majority view in Scotland, and Salmond knows it. He won’t call that referendum.
85.”You can hardly blame the Scottish nationalists for putting a counter-proposition.”
Sorry Stuart, what ever political bounce Brown might have sought on the back of our athletes success, he was certainly not advocating the break up of the team while they were still competing in Beijing.
Neither was he trying to scupper the *British* London Olympic games by turning them into a political bun fight before the torch was even handed over and the count down began.
79. He merely hired a fleet of yachts? How vulgar.
60.Well if its Tavish Scott or Mike Rumbles, then we will know if the Libdems are going to be SNP lite or not.
89. Perhaps - but it seems to me the SNP have encouraged these particular maggots to emerge from their slimy holes by kicking up a synthetic fuss about the structure of UK sports representation.
I suspect overconfidence may have encouraged this mistake - the utterly wretched condition of Labour may have led the SNP to think they can throw caution to the wind.
82…give us less football please!
93. Err… I hate to state the flippin obvious, but we do not know who has been trolling the Scotsman boards today.
I’d be mighty surprised if any supporters of Scottish independence were making fools of themselves with SeanT type rhetoric. Our opponents will do anything to discredit us. It does not take a genius to trace ip adresses. An awful lot of the trolling will be coming straight from John Smith House.
86. The Scottish aspect of the next UK general election will still be a Tory/Labour election, but often played out through the prism of Labour/SNP contests. Expect lots of Labour “don’t let the Tories in by voting SNP”-style leaflets.
The Labour Party will be trying to paint the SNP as too close to the Tories and likely to back a Cameron administration in London, as well as breaking up the Union etc etc.
The SNP will be trying to corner the market as the anti-Labour party, while capitalizing on the success of that nice Mr Salmond in Holyrood (if he’s still enjoying a political honeymoon in 18 months’ time).
The Scottish Tories will aim to be the Unionist anti-Labour Party, building on the detoxification of the brand which has been one of the main aims of both leaderships, north and south of the border.
The Scottish Lib Dems’ principal objective ought to be to get heard at all in a debate which is in danger of excluding them. They’ll still do OK in their extremely rural seats though.
So the rule of thumb still applies in Scotland but it does have to be based on a Scottish poll.
84. It would be interesting to see a poll on this but my belief is that most Scots would be in favour of a seperate Scottish Olympic team. I don’t see this damaging the SNP at all.
Out of interest, and just for a laugh, I just googled Tom Knox. There’s no international bestselling author near the top, but there is a US politician, a UK/US businessman and - most amusingly - a vertically challenged 17 year-old skateboarder
http://www.soulsports.co.uk/profile.html?tomknox
Would the real Tom Knox please stand up?
StuartD.
Oh dear. Yes, of course, there ARE thousands of people working through the night at Labour HQ, coming up with fake IP addresses so they can pretend to be angry bitter Scottish Nationalists posting at 4am on the websites of Scottish newspapers, thereby hoping to embarrass Alex Salmond.
Whereas in reality there are absolutely NO bitter angry anti-English people in Scotland at all, especially in parts of Glasgow, none whatsoever, how could you think that, och aye the fecking NOO.
Aside for pb.com and some SNP activists, nobody else cares about this isuse.
96.David, I think that both you and financier are correct with your analysis. Which is why predicting the results in Scotland is going to be so very hard whatever the polls say just now. In fact I would expect a realignment of those polling figures when the next GE looms close.
The newly elected leader might give us a clearer indication of how the Libdems are going to counter their poor performance up here recently, although finding a unique selling point is going to be hard for the reasons you both point out.
David Herdson, here’s a picture of the real Tom Knox, relaxing last week by his Californian ranch:
http://tinyurl.com/2trk7d
The reason Tom is not a bestselling author yet is coz we haven’t actually sold a single book. Not a single one. What we have sold is the publishing and translation rights to a number of countries - PRE-publication.
Go on, ask me how many territories have bought the book. Please. Please ask me. Please?
79 - “£150,000 fleet of private yachts “. Dear boy, you can’t get a decent BOAT for that these days.
Does anyone have a link for the full details of the Compass You Gov mentioned in yesterdays Observer? I can’t find it on either the compass or you gov site yet someone used the scottish sub sample up thread.
I was interested i the LD and others figures.
thanks
95: It would neither surprise me if the attacks on Chris were trolls nor if they were genuine.
But “SeanT type rhetoric”? I think not. SeanT’s hatred is better expressed, sincere, unretractable, and has the the enthusiastic support of every Tory.
I’m working in Hungary at the moment, and every here was happy to see their water polo team win the gold at the Olympics for the third competition in a row. The water polo competition may provide some illustration of the medal chances of a nation recently divided.
In Athens Hungary beat Serbia and Montenegro in the final who won the silver medal. This time round Serbia beat Montenegro for the bronze, ending the Montenegro hopes of a first Olympic medal.
97.”84. It would be interesting to see a poll on this but my belief is that most Scots would be in favour of a seperate Scottish Olympic team. I don’t see this damaging the SNP at all.”
I disagree with you there, the SNP have misjudged the public mood on this and damaged their image in the process. Whether it has a lasting effect will depend on Salmond and his Holyrood team fanning the flames further thus giving the story added legs in the media.
104.Someone linked to the polling details on the Compass or Yougov site towards the end of the earlier thread yesterday.
102. Like you need me to encourage you out of your coyness?
Although I’m not particularly bothered about who gets to be POTUS, the situation as it stands has the potential for some really dirty politics to be played out for our delectation. Well, I hope so anyway. And it’ll be on the Dem side. Obamas most dangerous opponent isn’t McCain, it’s still HRC - who has a reputation as a ruthless politician.
Consider… she lusts after the post, almost believes she has some sort of right to it, but it looks as if BO will get the nomination. That’s bad enough from her point of view, but if he wins the election in November, then it kills her chances stone dead, ‘cos he’ll stand again for a second term - and after that it’ll be too late for her.
So, to fulfill her dreams one of two things must happen: either a) he loses the nomination or b) he loses the election. So BO must go, before the nomination (preferably) or as an election loser later in the year. Case a) would mean that she gets the nomination this year and case b) that she stands a chance of making it next time.
Can’t vouch for its accuracy obviously, but there’s that interesting report that a case has been filed with a Pennsylvania court requiring proof to be shown for the eligibility of BO to stand as a Presidential candidate - filed by a senior Democrat who is pally with the Clintons.
Case a) coming up.
I await developments with a growing anticipation of interesting times ahead.
95. A bizarre, paranoid post.
104 Go to: http://compassonline.org.uk/article.asp?n=2885 and follow the links at the end the article
On thread, several thoughts:
Uber-Clinton loyalists are prominent in the party’s power structure, but are minuscule in the at-large electorate. Of those “millions of votes” a small number were from very fierce feminists. Most were Hispanics (who have already crossed over), and Southern, Appalachian and rustbelt whites (with whom Biden will be far more successful than Clinton).
The only way McCain could get the votes of those Clintonista die-hards is appointing a pro-choice woman. But of course, if he chose a pro-choicer he would have the Republican right in disarray and lose the election. It’s not going to happen.
Meanwhile, I think this ad is counterproductive. I suspect a lot of Clinton supporters will think “Yeah, I was angry, but who the hell is John McCain and the Republicans to act like they care about fairness in the Democratic nomination.” My suspicion is it will cause a backlash among Clinton supporters and cause them to come over to Obama more quickly.
The McCain campaign is like the Clinton one at the moment: they’re using every attack they can think of in a “kitchen sink” strategy. This dilutes the best attack lines and also reflects badly on them. For every blow they strike, they make many counterproductive ones. It also shows how desperate they are.
Also, Dick Morris has a serious grudge at the Clintons in particular and the Democrats in general. Take everything he says with a truckload of salt.
“Is there anything to stop McCain picking [...] his wife as VP candidate?!”
McCain - C**t ‘08
Re. 88, yes, though I read that she got scapegoated for the 06 mid-term election results.
67. McCain-Bush 08!
McCain *is* Bush in 08!
Vote McCain for more of the same!
114 HEHEHE bit early for that sort of language - even from me!
McCain will fry the opposition!!
95 - BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! from England
There are you scared now HEHE?
118, if McCain can call his own wife that I can too.
Trevor Kavanagh on the Four-letter word I want to
hear from Cameron … cuts
121.Kavanagh also notes that “MPs, back from their summer break this weekend, have started plotting again.
We will know within the next fortnight whether they have the stomach for a coup.
Whether they do or not, Labour faces a thrashing at the next election.”
Gordon Brown, after “holidaying” in English Southwold hopped onto a £5m jet, part if a multi-billion pound fleet, for his real break in his home country of Scotland
60/92 - You mean the Scottish LibDems still haven’t got a new leader? How long has it been now?
I don’t think the ad really works - too obvious, too selective, too easily countered by a strong pro-Obama speech from Hillary. Her optimal strategy is clear at this point - she should be strongly, indeed ostentatiously, pro-Obama. Whether she secretly hopes he wins or loses (and I expect she has mixed feelings), her speeches are unlikely to be decisive one way or the other, but she has everything to gain from being the plucky loyalist who rallied round once she’d lost. If Obama loses, people won’t blame her, and will inevitably wonder if they’d not have been better off with her - which would no doubt help in 2012.
121 - I thought the headline in the Sunday Telegraph was quite amusing - “Leading Tories call for tax cuts”.
Reading the article you discover it was Lord Forsyth and John Redwood - in other words the story was:
“Leading Tories taxcutters call for tax cuts…”
McCain’s problem is that he hasn’t got any women who would help. Palin is closest but she lacks experience and is entangled ion a scandal of her own, Meg Whitman one heartbeat away from teh presidency? The lack of experience there is almost suicidal.
Rob Portman was being suggested heavily to attempt to help in Ohio, Pawlenty is rather dull and, if it had been Bayh would have been fine but is pale against someone like Biden. Romney, Huckabee, Lieberman would rip the party apart. Too many would hate Crist and Ridge for who they are or what they stand for.
I’m lost now, his wiggle room is so slight with Biden that I think he may well just go with someone that he likes best and hang the party.
Picking up on some of those Morus mentioned - Bailey Hutchinson maybe, Rice will not do it, the others aren’t going to bring anything to the ticket and Fiorina hasn’t exactly been on message and has a poor track record.
Bailey Hutchinson? Hmmm.
Back on topic, Mike seems to have a bit of a thing for women politicians, which could partly account for his losses on this market (though it’s more to do with it being a single person choice game IMO). Remember those threads about the delightful Sego last year? The only election where gender really seems to count is the Labour deputy leadership where ‘balance’ is perceived to be important. I know Prescott wasn’t a woman but he provided a different sort of balance.
Is gender balance that important to America’s electorate - and if it is, why has there only been one male-female pairing so far (one which met with a distinct lack of success, it has to be said)? In fact that gives the lie to the last sentence quoted in Dick Morris’ article: “The prospect of a woman vice president would electrify women throughout the nation” - like Ferraro did?
I also don’t really agree with his sentiments about how ‘another woman’ would have been received by the Clintonistas. had Obama chosen a female running mate other than Hillary, it would have looked like (and would have been) a massive slap in the face to her, essentially saying ‘I want a woman on the ticket, but not you’. I can’t imagine that would have gone down too well. As it is, Biden is safe but unspectacular, raising none of those problems.
As for McCain, whether or not it is to be a woman, it needs to be someone who can do the job. Given McCain’s age and medical history, his running mate will probably come under more than the usual degree of scrutiny. He or she has to look like a possible president from the moment of the announcement; that applies a pressure to go for the safe option as well.
121,122 Not much doubt then about which way Murdoch is tilting ahead of the next GE.
65. I’m Back, Jack.
True she did support Hillary; but I think she’ll be proven right on this matter.
So. What do you think Sarah Palin as my pick for McCain VP?
Weathercock links to Janet Daley article, that’s as good a definition of madness as I can imagine.
125.Alex, our media seem very attached to the “leading Tory/Tories headline despite the fact that it usually means it won’t include any of the Shadow cabinet.
Thanks for the links to You Gov. I’m amazed Martin Day hasn’t been on about Nick Clegg moaning that he has to shop at Sainsbury’s because of the Credit crunch and no longer at Ocado! i wonder which supermarket Neil Kinnock shops at. I wonder if Biden will plagarise a Nick Clegg speech…
129 — Murdoch likes to back winners.
75 - Agreed, Gallup’s last poll showing McCain ahead was clearly an outlier and not typical of them but Zogby are all over the place.
When is the GOP Veep nominee due to be announced?
Is ANYBODY working at PH today? The site looks and feels empty.