Is this the way to start a presidential campaign?
August 27th, 2008
What will McCain’s spinners make of all this?
For weeks I have been arguing that Obama has got to find a way of dealing with the Clinton supporter issue - many of whom feel, rightly or wrongly, that the nomination was stolen from the former first lady.
Now, on the day of the roll call vote, party bosses have put into place an extraordinary plan to stop splits appearing on prime time television. So, according to the Independent, there will be no roll call on the floor of the convention - instead voting will take place at delegates hotels over breakfast.
All this will do is fan the flames of discontent and provide great material for the legions of journalists in the city who loathe being “managed”. They want copy that’s not from the official spin machine and this action will provide it.
All it requires is for a couple of highly emotional TV interviews with disgruntled Clinton backers and that becomes the defining “image” of Denver.
You can see the move being brought up time and time again by the McCain team as they seek to undermine the legitimacy of their opponent. Remember if the Democratic party primaries had been fought according to Republican party rules then Hillary would have been the nominee. It was that close.
Obama’s handling of his erstwhile opponent is coming under increasing criticism. As the Politico site reports: “..he has taken few of the extra steps that Clinton allies say would have gone miles toward fostering goodwill. He did not work hard to help her retire her $24 million campaign debt. He did not make a high-profile statement repudiating any suggestion that Bill Clinton played “the race card” in the nomination contest — an allegation that the former president considers grossly unfair and that continues to infuriate him. Just as significant, Obama has maintained a certain cool diffidence toward the former president.”
Ever since he secured the nomination in June I’ve been underwhelmed by Obama. In the betting, as I have recalled on many occasions, I backed Obama in May 2005 at the then price 50/1. This gives me a nice prospective cash pool to play with and I’m now using that to bet against the senator from Illinois.
I think his chances are declining all the time and whatever I’m determined to come out of this with a profit.
Mike Smithson
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O/T- (sorry to spoil the beginning of a thread!) Happy belated birthday, Martin! I hope it was a good one.
Oh dear.
He’s really trying to screw this up.
Unfortunately, you are trusting the media. Everybody on the ground says this is largely a story driven by bored journalists.
MIchelle Obama got a standing ovation at the Emily List luncheon today - the most pro-Clinton group in the Democratic party.
Don’t trust the media spin.
Oh and btw. Obama won. It is Bill Clinton acting like a spoiled baby
I think you’re very sensible to be hedging that nice bet, Mike.
He still might win but he seems to have been seriously undermined by a combination of events and hubris.
He couldn’t do much about Russia but surely he could have done more to appease the Clinton camp.
3 - But he’s a spoilt baby who won two elections comfortably and would have won a third had the rules not been changed to stop popular presidents staying on (bonkers).
Obama needs people like Bill Clinton on his side. In the tent pissing out.
re 3. It does not matter whether this is a story from “bored journalists” - it is what is reported and the images that emerge that will cause the damage.
Benjamin - this is how the news business works. Sadly Obama’s team has not figured that out.
I’m not so sure. The idea that the Clinton supporters would be mollified, and start playing nice if they were at least allowed to cast their ballots for her is not chiming with me any more. Anyone fired up enough to travel to Denver, and still cast their vote at the Convention for Hillary, and who would upset the applecart over this isn’t going to vote for Barack Obama anyway. The reasonable Hillary delegates have already come around - they might have voted for Hillary as a gesture if they got the chance, but they have already ‘got over it’ and are now supporting Obama as she asked.
I think the party realised that those people were going to give angry, tear-stained interviews anyway - they had nothing to gain by giving them the Convention Floor as a platform. If the party can’t be completely united, then it must at least be disciplined. PUMAs no longer welcome - this is a professional party, and it has decided it doesn’t negotiate with spoilers.
Mike, we were talking about this very issue at the end of the last thread. As David Roe mentioned, it is indeed puzzling why Obama did not even try to fake an interest in Hillary for VP. I have long disagreed with your suggestion that Obama should/would choose her, but I certainly can’t see why he would needlessly poke a stick in the eyes of her supporters by not even vetting her/considering her for VP! He needn’t have been sincere, so it just seems like laziness/arrogance/complacency on his part. Those are scary characteristics to be manifesting on the virtual eve of a presidential election.
Your good summary above merely provides the larger context of the problem and piles on the evidence that the Hillary VP oversight is not an isolated incident but is rather part of a pattern. Why has the Obama campaign, which is the wealthiest and arguably most sophisticated in history, seemingly made such a huge and easily avoidable blunder (on top of what I consider to be his other huge recent blunder, the Biden pick)? What does this say about the course of the next two months?
1. Thank You! Indeed it was - helping my grandmother get some new false teeth! I took her to her childhood home to see what it is like now! In some senses helping your folks is the best birthday present you can ever have. Making someone smile and recall the best times of thier life; certainly brought a lump to my throat! Making someone else smile is the best thing you can ever do!
I’m off to bed now but maybe HRC will make Obama smile?
Mark Warner sounds like an android.
Unimpressed.
7 - To be fair Morus they should have mollified the Clinton supporters well before this convention.
Everyone knows Obama won the primary/caucus season. Everyone also knows it was by a wafer-thin margin. What’s the problem with recognising that?
Why not do this:
(a) full roll-call on the convention floor
(b) chair announces the tally and asks the convention if there are objections to recording Obama nominated by whatever margin it is
(c) Clinton stands up, withdraws citing party unity and asks that Obama’s nomination be recognised as unanimous
(d) A hall-full of delegates cheer enthusiastically.
7- But Morus, it isn’t the crazy PUMA’s at the DNC that are per se the problem; it is the fact that Obama has carelessly thrown fuel on the fire of their anger through the actions catalogued above. If Obama had made all the right moves over the last few months to attempt rapprochement, not only would they likely be less angry and not only would there be fewer of them, but the narrative of how their candidate Clinton was wronged wouldn’t resonate with the larger public. The danger is that the pieces of the story will seem to fit together and coalesce into a narrative that will only perpetuate dissention within the Democratic ranks and open opportunities for McCain among both Democrats and independents.
Anyone watching Warner, look at the colour of his hand when it goes near his face. He’s wearing more fake tan than Girls Aloud.
I had a tenner on him becoming President. I’m ashamed.
re 7. The only thing that matters are the stories that come out of the convention not the what actually happens. When a PR machine like Obama’s tries to control things to such an extent then it is likely to blow up in their faces.
Also the way stories are covered is determined by the editors in the respective TV and newspaper newsrooms - not by those on the ground. The message will be going out to them - find those who are disgruntled and get us good interviews. That there might be only a few people who are concerned is totally irrelevant.
12- I agree completely and that’s what I’d do if I were running the show.
12 - I’m with you. If Hillary failed to fulfil her part of the deal she would be finished anyway then.
12 That would have been the obvious solution
I really do wonder at the Democratic party strategists sometimes. Obama (and McCain for that matter) seem to do a lot better when they go with their gut. Obama needs to get a grip of his campaign - this hotel breakfast thing is the kind of thing that makes sense to Washington insiders but look ludicrous to everyone else.
15 - I just think that the media story is the same whatever, so why pander to them, and give well over three hours of the Convention to a pointless roll call. That is time that they could be talking policy, or rallying the troops, not resurrecting a lost conflict that finished months ago.
Clinton’s party lost. There are some people who are irreconcilable, and they will be irreconcilable whatever Obama does. The media will big them up, and claim disunity whatever happens. I think the Democrats are right not to dignify this failed campaign with a three hour exercise in futility, that won’t make any difference except give the media a justifiable reason for making it a page one, rather than page three, headline.
Bill Clinton won’t be attending Obama’s acceptance speech on Thursday, although Hillary will be there:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/26/source-bill-clinton-will-not-attend-obamas-invesco-speech/
And so the cascade of consequences for Obama’s seemingly willful refusal to reach out to Hillary or her supporters continues. So much for intraparty unity, let alone unifying the nation…
19 - But he said there would be then changed his mind. This just doesn’t seem decisive.
This Montana Governor fella is like a fat court jester. I quite like him but I can’t take him seriously.
Hillary coming in 5 mins.
It’s funny, I’ve been skeptical all along about the actual numbers of these PUMA’s, but in the end it might not really matter how many of them there are. If there are enough of them to catalyze the story that there is widespread dissention within the Democratic Party, in combination with Obama’s snubs of Hillary and her supporters, the narrative of a divided party may take flight. This could energize a heretofore demoralized GOP, demoralize Democrats, and throw Obama himself off balance. Talk about unintended consequences!
Good start. She mentioned she’s supporting Obama right at the off.
Michelle Obama has a thunderous look on her face. She really doesn’t like HRC. I bet she wasn’t having another woman in the White House.
Notice that when Michelle Obama spoke, they gave out hundreds of floor banners saying ‘Michelle’
When Ted Kennedy spoke, they gave out hundreds of banners saying ‘Kennedy’
Now that Hillary Clinton is speaking, they have given out hundreds of banners saying….’Unity’
Make of that what you will
26 - There’s a lot of Hillary placards with her website on too.
She’s talking about her own campaign far too much.
26- Nice speech from Hillary. She seems surprisingly at peace with her fate, at least for now. She’s being the good soldier tonight, which makes Obama’s treatment of her stand in even starker contrast.
Morus, your report about “unity” banners is just another sad bit of evidence to throw on the pile with the rest of the evidence chronicled by Mike and others above.
Michelle looks like she swallowed a wasp.
Hillary’s website has gone down…
27 - I was talking about the official DNC banners. They seem to have made sure that Hillary-named banners are kept to a minimum.
28 - I absolutely agree - far too much
29 - I agree - the evidence is undeniable, but there are still two interpretations. You could either say that they are disrespecting her, or you could see it as them not allowing her (ultimately unsuccessful) campaign to railroad his.
I would love to see a pie-fight - I wanted a brokered convention - but if I were on the Obama campaign, I would probably not have given her the license that they already have done.
31 - I still think this convention with Obama/Clinton as the ticket would have been a stupendous party that would have left them with a ten point lead.
32 - You either shoot her or get her on board. They have done neither so far.
This is awesome. You could see the internal confusion on Michelle’s face when praised by Hillary. She tried to smile but it just wasn’t happenening.
34 - I would have done the former, but Obama’s campaign is trying to kill her off quietly. It won’t work, but that’s what they were going for.
She has the look of a bride during a best man’s speech, just waiting for it to be over and hoping it doesn’t get out of hand.
37 - brilliant!
I’m off out - see you all tomorrow.
Is Hillary having dinner with Mark Warner later? Her suit should match his face.
If they didn’t have parties, and
if they had the presidential election by AV, or
if the Electoral college was elected by PR and voted by AV,
then there would be an AV election in which Cllinton’s votes transfer overwhelmingly to Obama but enough transfer to McCain to ensure victory for McCain;
and nobody would bat an eyelid about it being a perverse or divisive result. It’s only because Cllinton and Obama are both labelled “Democrat” that anybody is shocked at McCain-voting Hillary supporters.
41 - But Hillary is a lifelong campaigner for social justice and healthcare reform.
People who subscribe to her policy goals who vote for McCain are perverse.
Good speech. I think she really did the job. Can’t help but agree with 34. It never could have happened, but would have been electrifying.
I don’t think Obama will lose because he is black. He will lose because he is black, inexperienced, and Democrat. The American people are already ready to elect a black president as long as he is a Republican and not a complete idiot. E.g. Colin Powell could have won in 1996 (or was it 2000?) if he had decided to run.
Anyway. Time for me to head home.
Intersting documentary on Channel Five last night about JFK and his reckless relationships with women. The general gist of it was that he was on the verge of being exposed and/or impeached because he was sleeping with women who had connections with the Mafia and with top East German and Czech communists. No assassination would have meant exposure within months, and no second term.
A good speech by Clinton. The danger for Obama is not that Clinton activists don’t get behind him — they will — nor that her supporters vote for McCain — they won’t — but that too many Democrat-leaning Americans stay at home one night in November.
42. Try telling them that.
Brilliant speech by Hillary….the words were there endorsing Barack time after time but not mentioning any quality he brought to being the Democratic nominee.
I’m more and more convinced McCain may pull this off and adjusted my betting some time ago.
What exactly are the odds for Hillary in 2012?
More and more sure that McCain is going to win in November. I agree with Mike about Obama.
There will be euphoria no doubt after a rousing speech, and his odds will narrow - which is when I’ll step into the market shortly after and back McCain.
Amongst many cited reasons includes the racial issue. I am not convinced that America is ready to elect a black President. It’s one thing seeing Obama, another to see the whole family. This isn’t to say I agree with this being an issue, but I just think sufficient numbers of white Americans will not go for it. Even if they make lots of the right noises, in the secret of the ballot box on the day itself? Nah. They will cross McCain, and in sufficient numbers to send him to the White House with a convincing majority.
Hilarious post by SeanT, yesterday, for those who missed it:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/26/will-congressional-success-cost-obama-the-white-house/#comment-754293
Sorry to be shallow but why do US politicians wives choose to turn a fine head of hair into something that looks like a cheap wig? I found it difficult to take what Mrs Obama seriously. I kept wondering whether everything about her was a phony as her hair.
At least Hillary’s looks like it’s her own.
50. Perhaps SeanT might enjoy this
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/17/thailand.familyandrelationships1
“Just as significant, Obama has maintained a certain cool diffidence toward the former president.”
after watching the way bill sunk his wifes chances in the primaries is that surprising ?! obama has played this exactly right, whatever he tried to do was pointless, because the clintons want him to lose this election, i think the more rope he gives them so they destroy hilary’s chances in 2012 the better.
Mike
His chances are “declining all the time” according to the polls, Intrade etc, and I respect your 50/1 bet which allows you room for movements against him. However, I still can’t see how McCain can win all the swing states he needs to become President. Therefore, Obama is still the likely winner and the current Intrade 60/40 split seems about right. The EC votes index on Sporting has moved up four points in the last two days - you can now buy at 298, which seems reasonable value to me as I expect him to get around 315…
re 54. Against all my potential winnings on the 50/1 bet I’ve laid Obama at an average return of 2/1. So I get two thirds of what I was going to get anyway in all circumstances.
For a risk averse gambler that seems quite a good deal.
The full Hillary speech can be seen here -
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7583565.stm
I think Dick Morris sums up the current situation in the Democratic campaign very well:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/08/the_better_hillary_does_the_wo.html
UK economy: TaylorWimpey report massive loss:
“Including exceptional items, the firm slumped to a loss of £1.54bn in the six months to 30 June, compared with a £18.3m profit a year ago.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7583557.stm
So, Gordon - those three million new houses….?
19. Morus: why [...] give well over three hours of the Convention to a pointless roll call.
Because it would show voters that the primary/caucus process does matter, and that the votes do count, and the nomination isn’t just stitched up by party elders.
This is supposed to be the Democratic Party, after all.
Also, it would give an opportunity to show unity as a tangible process.
Meanwhile in the UK, Gordon Darling does his best to screw up the tax base..
Henderson Group is close to quitting Britain for tax reasons in a move that would send shockwaves through the City and the Treasury.
The asset manager is expected to announce at its interim results tomorrow that it has been considering relocating abroad because of Britain’s increasingly uncompetitive business tax regime.
However, Henderson could sign a formal deal to make the switch as early as today
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/27/cnhend127.xml
GORDON BROWN’S POLICE STATE STAGE 2
After the 42 days, GB’s version of the Stasi is revealed with more unelected people given power to fine and demand identity etc.
However, if you want to join, just form a company and pay up - costs well less than £1,000.
See:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1049520/Jacqui-Smiths-Stasi-Now-council-jobsworths-demand-details-issue-fines.html
61. Smith/Stasi/jobsworth…….it could only be the Mail.
Just catching up with Clinton’s speech now. 10 minutes in, apart from the reference to Obama at the start, it sounds like she’s accepting the nomination. Hmm…
62
Wrong
In the Telegraph as well.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/2628415/Civilians-given-power-to-issue-on-the-spot-fines.html
63 - and fortunately, she’s now turned her message on its head, and claimed all those things are reasons for backing Obama. Nice rhetorical turn. Will it convince? I really don’t know…
Lots of comments overnight about Michelle Obama’s “stony face” when the cameras kept going to her after every Clinton reference to her.
Considering that her express was stony throughout, even when she was smiling, I suspect that she actually just looks like that. Some people just have miserable faces, I’m afraid. I wouldn’t read too much into it.
If Gordon does announce a “rescue package” and the treasury is ignored, Darling most certainly would walk. The prospect of Gordon doing both jobs(I believe there is history for this) or appointing Balls cannot be discounted. If Balls became chancellor, I would like to see the Tory and Labour seats spreads after it had been announced!!.
And continuing my conversation with myself, now having finished watching the Clinton speech it was, on balance, pretty good stuff. The ending was the best (as is always the case with speeches, especially American!) and I didn’t detect much anger from the face of the Big Dog. He looked genuinely happy with the speech Hilary was making.
I think the Democratic party can be united if Hilary continues to spread this message again and again as a surrogate for Obama in crucial states like Pennsylvania and Florida.
But to get back to the theme of this thread, they really must fix the PR machine first! Do they really wanted to be dogged by this story of “division” for the rest of the campaign? Because their surrogates are doing a remarkably good job of telegraphing to the media that there are still wounds to heal.
Roger, lol. I got worried and thought that Observer piece was basically about me. Then I read this bit:
“The Thai bar girls we interviewed said British men are usually the most polite.”
So I relaxed. They are clearly talking about someone else entirely.
Back ON topic, it’s interesting Mike, that you say you’ve gone off Obama - as I mentioned a few days ago I have the same feeling. I’m not sure it’s all Obama’s fault. He’s the kind of transcendent meteor of a candidate who should have been swept into office over a matter of weeks, in a giddy whirl of optimism; all these months of grinding policy debate and endless speechifying just take the shine off him, and doesn’t suit his electrifyingness, if you see what I mean.
But, yes, he has allowed the adulation to get to him, definitely. Berlin, in particular, was vacuous, stupid and hubristic.
Looking back at my Obamania, I wonder if I was slightly blinded by my prejudices. i.e. I hate women even more than I hate black people, so I was keener that Hillary got trashed than Obama.
JOKE ALERT! I don’t hate women or black people, I just hate…. HILLARY. And it is possible my Hillaryphobia, and my lust to see her and her fat-assed supporters humiliated and defeated, fuelled my desire for Obama to win, and desensitised me to Obama’s faults.
Hm. Anyway it’s win/win for me now. Either Obama gets the prez, which I still think will be a transformational moment, despite his faults - or the Demcorats screw it up AGAIN which will just be HILARIOUS.
And the witch is dead. Result all round.
i intend adding to my Obama bets which i have at 6/1 and 10/1. mcgovern said it all. anyone voting for Mccain is a “dodo”! oh ye of little faith.
The possibility of Hillary being Obama’s VP was seriously mismanaged. It seems clear that he did not want her and that she knew this. But he did not rule her out and nor, to my knowledge, did she rule herself out. The result is that on the eve of the convention he appears to have rejected her.
My guess is that she was not biddable. His team will have tried to court her team and reach a strategic settlement but she wasn’t having any of it. If she was truly supporting his candidacy she would have unequivocally ruled herself out as his potential VP choice to clear the path for him.
Whatever the interpretation, it’s a mess. Hillary seems to be doing the bare minimum to support him while aiming not to be too lukewarm in her support that she is accused of damning him with faint praise.
Morning Campers !!!!!!!
Well, what a lot of doom laiden sooth sayers we have this morning. Poor old Mike having been burnt by the Veep markets is turning into a surrogate for pr0zac and former Obama backers scurry around the back of sofas sweating on the next poll !!
This is a long, long campaign and there’ll be many a twist and turn to come. However the fundamentals of the race remain absolutely stable and as predicable as they can be in an election race and indeed as predictable as Obama winning the nomination way back in February became.
1. The “Jack W Base For The Race” is solid -
Obama = Kerry + Iowa and Mew Mexico = 264
McCain = 274
McCain must win ALL 5EV battleground states.
2. The GOP convention and the dual spectres at the feast of Bush and Cheney - Oooopppps.
3. The Debates. Oh dear …. will McCain stay awake ??
4. Spondoolicks. McCain is about to get mashed for cash and outspent by a ratio of around 4 to 1.
5. Groundgame. Does McCain have one, except in Florida it seem to have gone AWOL.
6. Turnout. IMHO differential turnout in three groups will swing this election decisively in Obama’s direction - Under 35’s, latinos and AA’s.
…………………….
New ARSE BUTT projection later this morning.
I wonder how many PBers have shifted in their enthusiam for Obama like Mike, SeanT and myself? I agree with Sean that Berlin was hubristic. If Obama loses this race that may well prove to have been the turning point.
He has won one race, the Democratic nomination, on a tide of rhetoric. I am not sure that he can win another, the POTUS election, with the same approach.
Didn’t someone famous once say “All that glisters is not gold”?
51. Roger - very funny.
71. But the only reason Hillary could be doing all that (apart from sour grapes) is because she fancies her chances in 2012, following an Obama defeat in 2008.
If so, surely she is deluding herself? Does she really think she could win the nom and the prez after all that’s happened? She and Bill will get some of the blame if Obama loses. The Dems will be hideously split. If they lose in 2008, once they have got over their suicidal despair, they will surely choose a unity candidate, not a divider.
Indeed if Obama loses, my bet is that next time the Dems will be ultra-cautious and go for a white male Southern candidate, someone like Carter or Bill, their only other successful candidates in recent history. They’ll just be so desperate to win, they won’t take any more chances with women or blacks or divisive characters.
It’s a bit like the Tories with their failed leaders before Cameron, they tried the Jew, the baldie, the Yorkshire comp boy, then they found success by reverting to type - an old Etonian.
Of course all this presumes that Hillary is doing what you say in subtly undermining Obama (I haven’t checked). It also presumes that Obama will lose, and I still think he’s gonna win.
I think McCain is gonna screw up at some point majorly. He’s got that temper thing going on. And what about the eight houses stuff? And he is just a bit TOO old I reckon. I also think in the end the American voters will think - yet another four years of the Republicans? Hmmm….
Obama will scrape through.
71 Yes, StJohn, I think that’s a pretty astute and succinct assessment. One consistent theme of the Hillary campaign is that if she can’t win it, she sure isn’t going to make it easy for anybody else. She could have made things easier in many ways. She hasn’t. And she’s also avoided making a bitter and resentful speech, which would have had the Convention turning on her and giving Obama a boost.
She remains as a problem that needs to be managed. She’s managable, but she ain’t gonna make it easy.
You back from holiday, or you resting your bike outside an internet cafe?
Why do Americans always SHOUT at each other.
Can you imagine this a la Hillary?:
We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France,
we shall fight on the seas and oceans,
we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air,
we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight on the beaches,
we shall fight on the landing grounds,
we shall fight in the fields and in the streets,
It would take an hour, by which time the majority of the hysterical audience would have been carried away on stretchers.
I can imagine Goebbels doing it, though!
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2636979020080826
Is this normal for conventions? Obama will accept the nomination from a cardboard Greek temple. Will the volume be turned up to 11?
73 Yes, Berlin was a bit of a mistake but not fatal.
SeanT is uncharacteristically talking much sense this morning. We’re in danger of forgetting the McCain/GOP side of the equation. In the end, the voters are likely to ask whether they want four more years of the Republicans, led by a 72 yo President. Somehow, I don’t think so.
Obama will get in, but not by a landslide.
I’ve just watched Mark Warner’s keynote address. This is the first time I’ve heard him speak, but I’m aware of his success in Virginia and the various movements to draft Warner over the years for the presidency.
It wasn’t on the same level as Obama’s keynote address four years ago. That was stunning, oratical brilliance. I doubt he’ll ever beat that moment.
But in many ways Warner has got all the bases covered. He is a good public speaker: sound delivery and a decent tone to his voice. He is a little wooden, perhaps a bit too theatrical, but I think this is forgiven a lot more easily in the USA. And as Brits, we can’t really talk, given three election victories for that Oscar-winning actor, Tony Blair.
He also has an impressive executive record, and has showed he is able to reach across the partisan divide while as the Governor of Virginia.
If Warner never makes a run for the Presidency in the future he is a fool. His speech pushed all the right buttons economically and domestically. His track record of winning (and handsomely so) in a Southern state is a very good sign. Perhaps he is hoping for a Cabinet position from Obama if he wins in order to keep him in the media spotlight for several more years until the right moment.
Keep a close eye on him, that’s for sure. Not that there are many betting opportunities on him though.
76. Peter. I’m still on holiday but back in England. We abandoned the bikes after a day and a half! What was described as a gentle family bike riding holiday, touring the canals of Burgundy consisted of a gruelling, saddle sore, 60km per day section of the Tour de France!
72 Sound as a pound, Jack W. Obama still next President of the USA.
(Or Presidebt, as I just typed. Which probably sums up his future woes as incumbent in the White House….)
O/T More revelations that N.Rock’s mortgage book is cack.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/27/cnrock127.xml
Labour are about 3 weeks away from <20% IMHO.
jack w - out of interest, do you discount the possibility of McCain flipping MI?
Mike,
On betting, even I, who am not a betting lady at all, was tempted months ago to dare to put some money on McCain, anticipating all these things which have turned out to come true, ie, race,feminism,rhetoric fatigue,policy emptiness etc.
I have been reading Morus’s diary with interest and agree with his question about whether Mrs Obama might have been the better candidate.
The thing I found most distasteful about the democratic rally
was using the children on the platform as they did. Particularly toe curling was the pertness of their little dresses and the ” love you daddy” endorsement bit. I shiver because I know our people go over and watch these antics with a view to copying their techniques.
Never here I hope!
Beth.
I’ve never thought Hillary was a brilliant speaker (in a perverse way it’s one reason I like her) and last night wasn’t an exception in terms of delivery. But I thought it was convincing for the wavering activists, for the reasons discussed here:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/aug/27/uselections2008.hillaryclinton
As for the wider audience of not-so-sure Democrats, I don’t think Hillary can deliver them without being the VP candidate, and even if she had been maybe not either. Obama has to persuade them himself. Unusually, he doesn’t have to win swing voters this time. He was to secure his base, because this year the base is a majority.
If you’re thinking of betting *against* it, I’d advise waiting till after Obama’s speech, which is almost bound to be rated as successful: his odds will then improve. Get in at that point before the Republican counerblast.
I tell you what, Jack. The BUTT is really on the line over this one.
If Mac wins, you’ll have to put your ARSE in cold storage forever.
guess what! Our Great Leader seeks a victory:
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/08/27/exclusive-gordon-brown-to-take-charge-of-labour-s-fight-for-glenrothes-86908-20712877/
86 test. I discount few things in politics …. seanT becoming Peter Mandelson’s bosom political pal in Brussels or Nick Palmer finding a Tory voter on a canvass return !! …. but Michigan is a money pit and political fools gold got McCain.
89 Martin. ARSE (BUTT) goes where others fear to tread !!
So, I guess we’re only a few short days from when Karl Rove releases the Michelle Obama whitey tape?
I was very enthusiastic about Obama unitl I went to America and saw him on the TV - he would be a terrible terrible president - though Biden might have a chance of preventing complete disaster.
Unfortunately McCain seems didn’t impress me either, a ditherer and mumbler with a bad temper.
I win either way but if MCain gets it I make a bit more so I urge all our US friends to vote for MCain as the winnings will help pay for my Masters degree course. Either way you’re going to get a rubbish president (again)
Biden seems the most
As an ardent McCainite I must admit that - with victory so close - I am concerned at what his one-term (yes, I feel that is what it will be) presidency will be defined by/as. With a hostile Congress full of servile Champagne-Socialists and ethics what can McCain achieve in four-years…?
The answer to my concerns will transpire in a matter of days. It will be the post of President-Elect (a.k.a. Vice-Prez.). My hopes are still with Jeb, despite the vitriol and disappointment of his big-bro’. [Take it down DJ Lethal...! Rollin', rollin', rollin'...!]
90. The Man who has been a failure as PM, thinks he can make a comeback with victory in Scotland. Salmond must be having a belly laugh at this moment, as he pours forces into the Glenroth seat, to cruch the poor deluded fool.
Yes, if there’s an Obama win, it may well be narrow, all the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado (273).
Crush
81. The TV debates will be crucial. Obama is not good at these and, I understand, he is regarded as having lost his only TV debate so far with McCain (that’s what this week’s Economist told me, apparently it happened last week or summat).
But I still think the TV debates will be a huge opportunity for Obama. As he is regarded as being Not Very Good At Them he can’t underwhelm. That helps. Also McCain, whether he likes it or not, is gonna have to defend the entire Republican record of the last eight years - from Iraq to Katrina to the economy etc.
That’s a big big target for Obama. The Democrat has to play it carefully though. Iraq is tricky - the surge seems to have worked and that’s McCain’s baby - but Iraq is also a major achilles heel for McCain because I think Americans are basically ashamed, depressed, wearied and disgusted by the Iraq War (like the Brits) and Obama just needs to pin that war on his opponent - as a Republican.
Also McCain’s temper might flare up on TV. Obama should eschew all his smugness and aim to needle the old guy, very subtly. If McCain does lose it, Obama walks the election.
95 Fluff. Really funny !!!!!!!!
Jeb Bush as Veep …. McCain/Bush 08
:-) 
:-)
95. Fluffy. It depends on his VP pick. Palin, I think, or someone very like her.
90 You have to stare in slack-jawed wonder at any opening line which features “Gordon Brown” and “mastermind” in conjunction.
Perhaps if they added “Austin Powers” and “evil” in the mix too?
#93
Hasn’t that one died-a-death (and was pulled from YouTube months ago). More worrying is Barrack’s alleged teas-and-cream episode in the back of a cab - allegedly!
There are some nutters out there. And then there are those who believe it!
95/100. I didn’t read the Jeb thing. God no!
re 62/64 and the Today programme (on the supposedly pro-government) BBC made a big story of it today as well.
Once you get issued with one of these fines there’s practically no recourse for appeal.
@103:
I wonder if it’s just been biding its time, waiting for Labor day. No point finishing Obama off before he gets the nomination, after all.
95. Fluffy. That’s a good point. McCain’s VP choice could well be President-Elect. Makes his choice far more interesting and important than I had recognised.
5 Those rules have been in place since 1952. It used to be just a convention like ours that you served no more than two terms consecutively. Americans realised the enormous power of the Presidency and incumbency together and once Roosevelt shattered the convention by winning four terms they understandably in their eyes moved to formalise it.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 46% .. Obama 49.% .. Others 5%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 176 .. Obama 255 .. Toss Up 107
Changes Since Last Projection - Ohio moves from Toss Up McCain to Toss Up Obama. Arizona moves from Safe McCain to Likely McCain .
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 232 .. Obama 306
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
105 what was curious on the Today programme was that an increase from 980 to 1400 of these wannabe Dirty Harrys was described as ’slight’.
I look forward to the 50% drop in house prices being described as ’slight’ !
105. The People’s Commissars have finally arrived - very heartwarming for many Labour MPs. Perhaps we can have the People’s Tribunals of Justice next as well. Churchill was right in 1945 - just 60 years or so too early with his prediction.
I just heard the loudest thundercrack of my life. And the skyscraper next door got hit by lightning (I think). I love tropical storms.
I only mention this irrelevant and tedious fact because I am feeling a need for displacement activity as I wait nervously for a call from my agent. Apologies.
My Obamamania has certainly faded. I think it left me some time after Pastor Wright broke. He was all shiny and new before and after was all messy and human. However.
Obama > Hilary > McCain > All the other republican possibilities.
So I still want Obama to win and I’m glad he won the democratic nomination.
Morning all. It’s just gone 3am here in Denver, and I really need some sleep. I’ve time-stamp posted a continuation thread to make sure that the server doesn’t come under too much pressure before I wake up.
I’ll be posting some stories from the Democracy For America event (*very* good fun…) with all the various candidates who were in attendance, as well as some views from Lord Rennard and Ed Davey. I’ll also be looking at the key speeches yesterday from Bob Casey, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and of course that crucial address by Hillary Clinton.
I’ll try and revisit the PUMA issue, and will try and give some comment on how activism here is a very different beast to that which we have in the UK.
The time-difference, the beer, and the altitude are really taking their toll, but if you can be patient, I think I should have some good stuff to share when daytime in Denver rears its groggy head.
See you all later on…
STJohn asked who else had gone cold on Obama. I have, I think he has completely failed to capitalise on his early momentum and now looks to be in real trouble.
He peaked too early (had to, I admit, to get the nomination) and now I think Americans have seen enough of him to realise he is just another JFK wannabe like so many other nominees over the decades.
The old enemy rising up in Georgia is the last straw for Obama’s chances and I am surprised more hasn’t been made of this.
A belligerent and expansionist (and now rich) Russia, unlike Bin Laden, represents a clear and present danger to most American citizens and they have reminded everyone of their potential to threaten US interests in the nick of time for Mccain.
I suggested way back that the Dems, as is ‘usual’ could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and I am more than ever convinced that they will.
Obama is starting to look like the wrong man for the times, with some worrying similarities from a Democrat perspective to Dukakis. He looks like an insubstantial nice guy, with the added downside of belonging to a minority group.
In a benign foreign policy environment, I think he’d win, albeit narrowly. In the current deteriorating one, I think his chances are receding rapidly.
115/116 Marcus/runnymede. Another pair of ARSE twitchers !!
113, 115, 116. Agreed agreed agreed - however all this ignores, as I say upthread, the equally serious flaws in McCain, especially his eight houses, his well-known temper tantrums, and the last two terms of Republican governance, which he will be obliged to defend, whether he wants to or not.
And then there is his age. 72.
I like McCain. He’s a genuine war hero - a brave man, but I think he’s just a bit too old. Yes, Americans may ask do we want this naive kid running the show in challenging times; they will also ask - do we want this volatile septegenarian in the Oval Office when things get stressy?
It’s gonna be an interesting race anyway. And FWIW I don’t think Hillary would be doing any better against McCain, in fact I think she would be doing worse. Bill would be out crowing and gloating, and all the Monica stuff would be rehashed, and everyone would wonder if they really wanted this strange horror couple back in the White House with their dry cleaning bills.
118. yep both candidates have up and down sides, but i don’t think much has changed recently. 60-40 (as on the exchanges) is about right.
I and think Obama will probably just still win it but if he had picked Hillary as his VP the DNC would be giving him a sizeable bounce now and John McCain would have had virtually no chance of catching up and winning.
118. Yes McCain has real flaws as a candidate too. But from a betting perspective there looks to be little value left in Obama now, especially if you have had cash on him from when his odds were very long.
I’ve closed out my bets and I would expect further profit taking in the days ahead given Mike’s call/the convention news/the international situation.
118. Obama is not a kid. He’s nearly 50.
BTW Sean, I don’t think that most Americans are “ashemed, depressed” or “disgusted” about Iraq (”wearied” I’ll give you but that’s quite different). The single strongest sentiment with Iraq since 2003 was frustration, and whilst that has not been completely cured, the surge strategy has allowed them at least a little respite from the constant stream of bad news. Essentially, no they do not feel like the British do about the war, not least because they have a great deal more pride directly at stake than us.
An Iraq going badly would of course have helped a challenger, but I have been far from convinced that the subject as a whole would always play into Democrat hands. People were getting fed up of the Dubya administration’s handling of the conflict, not necessarily of the conflict itself. And I shall be (and indeed have been) betting that they would rather elect someone who deals with such situations successfully than someone who thinks they should never have been involved. One only needs to look at the ongoing rehabilitation of ‘Nam to see which way the Americans go instinctively …
123. Is there a rehabilitation of Vietnam? In what sense? I’m intrigued…
O/T, from Al-Beeb:
Fifth arrest over ‘PM death plot’ [Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7583687.stm ]
No wonder nEU-Labour are using their council-indentured employees to enforce summary-sentencing! Five arrests, but still another 40 million suspects!
Nice to see the resurgence of the Soviet election committees though (c*nts):
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7582671.stm[Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7582671.stm
Love this quote:
And the commission says its own role should be strengthened to keep checks on standards of those in charge of running elections.
The report calls for existing laws on managing elections to be “rationalised and consolidated” and focused on “clearly articulating electoral policy rather than micro-managing the delivery of elections”.
Turkey’s don’t vote for Christmas, and Labour’s quangos hate British democracy. More EU approaches to democracy (not), hey Nick…?
Maybe too much is being made of McCain’s age? If we accept that he is only realistically looking for a one term Presidency, then he will be a lame duck anyway in a couple of years? I believe it’s argued that during the second half of a POTUS’ final term that power and influence ebb away anyway? So it’s “Vote McCain for Two Years Only!”
123. I was nodding in some agreement to your post until I got to the bit about Nam.
Rehabilitation???
I’ve read a lot of stuff about Vietnam over the years, being - as is obvious- a regular and interested visitor to Indochina, and indeed to Vietnam itself, and in NO SENSE have I got the idea that the war has been rehabilitated, if by that you mean everyone now thinks the Vietnam War was a pretty neat idea.
That’s just utter twaddle. I think the consensus view of Nam now is that expressed by Robert Macnamara himself - that the war was a well-intentioned calamity. I recall him saying something like “we could have won it with fridges rather than bombs” - i.e. generosity rather than aggression would have been the better route.
True or not, fact is America LOST in Vietnam, and the war split America in two, and hundreds of thousands died, and half of Laos and Cambodia were laid waste with carpet bombs, napalm and agent orange, and the whole appalling disaster led to the rise of the Khmer Rouge, who killed two million Cambodians.
No, I don’t think the Vietnam war has been “rehabilitated”.
As for your comments on Iraq, they are more sensible. Yes I may have been projecting a UK perspective, slightly, in saying Americans are generally “disgusted and ashamed” by the war (though many Americans do feel that way of course).
However, I stand by my statement that most Americans are wearied and depressed by the Iraq war and its aftermath.
the notion of Hilarey as Vice president is so bonkers its hardly worth thinking about. Do you really think Hilary wants Bills finances put under the microscope.
people here are underestimating what Obama achieved and what he do again.
thye convention would always be tricky because of the clintons utterly misplaced sense of entitlement. Bill was only elelcted because of Ross perot he never got 50% plus of the vote. Whys she is such a heroine for so many women I will never get. She helped cover up his repeated sexual harrasment of other women or was in a state of such denial as to render her unfit for any public office.
Obamas whole camapign was based on the need to change the political system of which the Clintons were a central part.
Obama is one of the best equipped candidates intellectually there has ever been. His back story is fantastic, he has the detailed grasp of policy that people need. A year ago he was being dismissed as a policy wonk now somehow he is insubstantial. Ludicrous.
The campaign did make a mistake with the european trip but the polls have not shifted much. If he had not gone the attack would have been “he has never been to europe. He can focus on the lelection. McCain will either not be able to campaign as much or will try and match Obamam become exhausted and make mistakes.
Unlike Dukakis Obama is hitting back each time he is attacked. Good stuff.
It was always going to be close and I had assumed Clinton would win the nomination then lose to the republicans. Now at least there is a slim chance of the republicans losing everything and americans getting decent health care and competent people running the economy.
127. I don’t think most people in the UK are disgusted and ashamed about Iraq, either. Mild annoyance or even indifference are much more common attitudes. History will likely judge the war as a strategic misstep, a largely fruitless waste of life and effort like the Crimean War or the Boer War.
But there has been quite a deep and negative impact on the public’s perception of politicians, especially of Blair and his loyal party followers.
If the choice is about who would be the biggest risk, McCain will win. McCain is a known quantity who was right on the biggest national security question of the last few years and is more trusted on security issues.
Obama is an unknown quantity, from the left of the Democratic party, extremely inexperienced and not as trusted on security issues.
If the choice is about who’s the biggest risk, McCain wins. If people are wavering as they go into the booth, McCain is the lesser risk. Not only for the above reasons, but because aged Presidents are familiar, and they carry with them a bunch of advisors. No-one will seriously worry that a senile old man is going to press the nuclear button. They will be worried about Obama’s programme, and what he will do with a Democratic congress.
129. I don’t think many were exactly enamoured of politicians before that war?!
129. Sadly, again, you may be right. I probably was overstating it even re the UK. Most people don’t care that much about anything…
However the UK chattering classes and the blogerati ARE generally ashamed and depressed by What We Done. That seems inarguable.
I agree with your prognosis re the Judgment of History. The Crimean War, in particular, seems like a pretty good historical analogy for the Iraq Misadventure.
132. The various Afghan wars are also possible analogies…
127 — Agree completely on Vietnam. When even Robert Macnamara admits it was unnecessary, it’s time to stop fighting.
64 Smith/Stasi/jobsworth……it could only be Labour.
McCain would probably have lost under the Democrat party rules. Ironic really.
The Afghan wars were quite rational (fear of Russia as ever) - just badly and ignorantly run.
3 - Exactly, the stories are no different to the stories circulating about tory splits until recently, They are there to make stories and to give an impression of friction where it is down to only a small minority.
Clinton appears to have hit it out of the park last night if the commentary is anything to go by in the press this morning. Still not the greatest speaker but she should have got the message across. If any of her supporters vote McCain after that then it is through pure selfishness (which it probably always was for some).
By “rehabilitation” I was not referring to people thinking it was a Good Thing or a Success. However I have come across an increasing number of articles and books (I shall, when I have a freer moment, attempt to reference some of this I promise) basically taking the view that yes ‘Nam was a calamity, BUT it was probably better going in there and losing than not having made the effort and encouraged God-knows-what else to have happened in the region and beyond. There is a school of thought that says Vietnam at least showed the Americans to be willing, fruitfully or not, to have a go; and that this held some sway over a number of other minor incidents in the late 1970s and 1980s where coutries decided they probably could win a guerilla war but just couldn’t afford to have their landscape covered in Agent Orange …
Anyway that’s all by the by. My main point was over Obama versus McCain and I agree with runnymede that notwit