Who thought this was a good idea?
August 27th, 2008-
Did nobody realise how McCain would respond?
It appears from the photo above (hat-tip to Drudge) that the stage for Barack Obama’s historic address tomorrow evening will be classical in design, with a facade resembling a Greek or Roman temple.
McCain’s campaign has ‘gleefully’ responded, calling it the ‘Temple of Obama’ and have sent out an email of their magazine “Audacity Watch”. This chimes with the video that they made mocking Obama’s messianic following, called ‘The One‘.
After his international tour, there was no shortage of comment accusing Obama of being less the presumptive nominee, but more the presumptuous nominee. In light of that criticism, accepting the nomination in a 70,000 seater stadium might seem a little risky, but to put him on such a stage smacks of amateurish indifference to this line of attack, which could be extremely dangerous for his chances of winning in November.
Rumour has it that John McCain will announce his VP on Friday morning, or even on Thursday evening just hours after Obama’s speech, to overshadow the Democrat’s coverage. This element, as well as the various pitfalls of accepting the nomination in this way, lead me to wonder whether Obama will see the usual ‘Convention Bounce’ of 6%. If not, cue the process stories about a campaign coming off the rails, and the media getting to savage the Obama campaign team for the first time.
Morus
REMEMBER: Check out Morus’ Denver Diary for latest updates, thoughts and impressions from the Democratic Convention week in Colorado, as well as an exclusive interview with Lord Rennard and Ed Davey MP.
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Oh no, they’re attacking him for being popular! Stop being popular Barack, before it’s too late!
Sorry for the snark.
test
Looks like a taste of the White House to me, what is the problem?
Its only a matter of time before a core of his support follows him to a compound in Waco Texas…..
Either his campaign reckon they’ll win whatever or someone is losing their common sense.
Socrates thinks it’s a great idea, but then again, he is named Socrates (it must seem like home)!
2 - No more of a problem than modifying the Presidential Seal - like that didn’t make him look presumptuous
http://www.examiner.com/a-1455131~Obama_campaign_drops_seal_on_podium.html
It doesn’t surprise me. One thing you can guarantee about the Yanks is that nothing is ever done by halves and is nearly always OTT
Is that picture for real? … So, he attacks McCain for having 10 houses and hence being out of touch with the real world and then sets this up to show how in touch with America’s economic woes he is…
The only thing that could *truly* top it off is if he wears Russell Crowe’s Gladiator costume for the speech…
6 If that’s a true reflection of what they intend, they’re crazy.
The Obama campaign *is* coming off the rails, with every passing day it gets further and further off track.
I thought the overseas tour was bad enough, the cringeworthy daddy scene with his kids was worse and now we get this temple to his vanity.
I know the Amerocans have a tendancy to go for the less-than-subtle but surely this is just too much?
Aarggh - a carefully crafted post now on a dead thread (anyway, I messed up on the HTML).
Sorry to go OT, but reposted:
————-
Having just caught up with this [the last] thread,
ed’s point [on whether the polls are right at all rather than messing about with MoE] dwells on the difference between precision and accuracy. Precision is to do with random statistical error and is accounted for by the MoE calculations expressed above (the “traditional” +/-3% which is refined by others above (38, 54). this depends, of course, on the process not being subject to a systematic error or bias - and calculating the precision carefully about the wrong value.
One nice simple test for systematic error is to see whether the variations fall roughly equally above and below the true value (for example, if there is no pro-Labour bias, you’d expect to see equal understatement of the final value as overstatement when compared to the election results).
Re: “inbuilt bias” and required Tory lead - I’ve mentioned before that Baxter has done a “Gap Analysis” article, which I summarised on an earlier discussion
In effect, a Tory lead of 9% is required to win the 2005 General Election - which is now a bit of a tough ask in any case
We don’t actually know how big a Tory lead will be needed to gain a majority at the next one, but unless you postulate anti-Tory/pro-Labour tactical voting exactly as much as last time, and Brown having a similar advantage over Cameron in the middle-class marginals as Blair did over Howard, it’s fair to say that it will be less than that.
2. The problem is that character of Obama is the GOP’s key weapon. They want to portray as being in an ivory tower, elitist, and frankly not relating to Joe Average.
The American mass do not trust the cultish or the elitist and the GOP are targeting it. Its their best chance. Obama doesnt need to help them along. Thery like siomeone who seems like a Joe Schmoe or at least relates.
I pointed out a while back about the quasi religious or indeed king like status that some seem to have put a man who is in fact a Chicago politician. It could do him damage if he’s not careful and I notice how many mow people are now recognising that it looks dodgy, even if the man himself isn’t behind it.
I read the MORUS diary piece; most interesting! I can see why so many LD’s have gone over to Denver to look at how things are doing at the cutting edge of american politics. I doubt they will replicate the Democrats strategy as it would be equivalent to Neil Kinnocks assimilation of previous convention techniques!
I have enjoyed reading your experiences Morus! Hope the Sun burn is better!
With regard to the set that Obama is going to deliver his adress against- cannot understand it! Surely he would be better using themes the voters care about?
Thursday is the anniversary of I have a Dream.
This is aimed at looking like the backdrop of Dr King’s speech on TV.
10 - We don’t mind OT posts when they are that well-crafted Andy!
Let’s wait and see what it looks like tomorrow. The Obama campaign are not so stupid as to give McCain such an easy shot. Are they?
He’s clearly going mad. It better be a stunning speech with some hard hitting red meat on Russia and the economy instead of all that wooly change nonsense or he’s in deep doo doo.
9 Have to aggree with every word Marcus.
Well to look like the backdrop for Dr King’s speech, he could surround himself with members of the Nation of Islam each wearing white taqiyah
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iEMXaTktUfA
The ‘I have a dream speech’ was in front of the Lincoln Memorial. If they had chosen a huge backdrop photo of that, it would be one thing, but that structure does look like a Greco-Roman temple. I don’t think what they were trying to do is wrong, just that it has been rather carelessly executed, just like the Obama Seal.
13. But why would Obama want to play up the race comparison with MLK? Yes, it’s historic, but it’s electoral dynamite. And whilst MLK was a great man, he would have been a lousy president.
Also - what is expected of Biden’s speech? I remember that Edwards disappointed with his “Hope is on the way” spiel in Boston; I can’t remember a word that Cheney or Lieberman said. Surely Biden will have to pull out the punches to (a) outshine Bill Clinton and (b) prove he’s worthy of a place on the ticket. But he’s only had a few days to write his speech.
P.S. I heard on Fox News that some Hillary supporters were trying to nominate her for the VP slot. Morus, if you’re still around - is this a realistic threat, and would the VP roll-call take place before or after the presidential one?
9. That ignored the fact though that he has the issues in his favour and a two term GOP mess that called Bush. That is a huge huge hurdle for the GOP, possibly too far.
McCain is the only GOP type with a chance. Yet again, I point to McCain as a change candidate, something I’ve knocked on aboutfor months. And potentially he is, I heard it from Sidney Blumenthal I have heard from at least two other Democrat types interviewed that McCain does represent change.
The masses in the USA wants ‘change’, that much seems to clear, and if McCain positions himself successfully and camp Obam,a charge that he isn’t change doesn’t stick, then he may just present a more acceptable form of change that will swing it.
It looks a bit Sheffield Rally to UK eyes. The thing about Sheffield is not that having an upbeat rally is a bad thing but that it played to existing doubts that swing voters had about Neil - supposed cockiness, over-exuberance, etc. The McCain camp are clearly targeting Clinton Democrats with the storyline that Obama is an effete and vain intellectual, so it seems a tad risky. But I doubt if it’ll be the main story come Thursday night.
It’s so amazing that Obama’s campaign can be so clever and so stupid at the same time. The way they beat Hilary Clinton was genius, they completely out campaigned her. But put them against the Republicans and they come over pants-on-head-retarded.
Though this is Drudge. It might be completely untrue. Then McCain would look like an ass. Or Obama would look like he changed it because of McCains criticism.
19 - I think Joe Biden probably started drafting this speech about 35 and a half years ago, if not before…
19 - I’m sure Biden will be able to rustle up something suitable at short notice; he seems to have good sources of material.
20; I think she’ll simply refuse nomibation, if it gets that far. I’m as Clintonite as anyone, but that would be silly.
18. Obama cannot win!
I am afraid his race will seal it for the Republicans it is more a question of how much McCain will win by IMO.
I cannot imagine a Black president, I doubt most US voters can either. If he had been a VP that people could get used to - i.e HRC and then went for it : fair enough. This is a step too far IMO. I don’t come to this conclusion lightly either - Ironically a female Clinton Presidency would have opened the way: she would have won in a marginal context but Obama will not win!
14, Careful Morus - I’ve still got to get my head out through the door
20 - This isn’t a serious threat. There’s no appetite for it, she is backing the Obama-Biden ticket, it would never work, and I can’t think there are many who would even want to try it. Most of her hard-core supporters wouldn’t consider that sufficient anyway!
The other question is whether there will even be more than a symbolic roll call for the VP. If the Presidential one doesn’t take place (as Mike’s thread on the Independent article suggested) I can’t imagine they would waste time on a vote for Biden, when barely anyone considers the matter still open.
I think this one is Fox stirring…
His people have stopped with the messiah stuff. Now they are positioning him as Caesar.
Et tu Hilarii?
25 - Yeah, there’s a speech given in Sheffield that begins with ‘AALLLRRRIIGGHHT!’ or something that he could use. That would be ironic for two separate reasons, given the circumstances.
261 from last thread. Martin D. To answer your question, I am commissioned to grow rapidly a high-tec and very innovative consultancy and it is growing very fast. Its clients are the oil and gas majors, and most industry world-wide including the insurance and security industries. It also has an innovation division that does co-operative research with European and USA majors as well as having its own labs and test sites.
Its main areas of expertise are advanced safety practices and its ability to prevent and mitigate the consequences of potentially dangerous situations. e.g. Buncefield It is known for its radical and unconventional thinking. A totally British company owned and financed in the UK but limited by the lack of quality UK staff.
don’t see the problem
I thought we were going to have a historic convention with Obama and Clinton on the ticket and rampign themselves into a stunning lead from which they would not lose.
ow it just seems as history is repeating itself with Democrats forgetting you can’t win an election before November and alienating your core vote is a cruddy way of running a campaign
31 - Curse you, I’m in a restaurant and I just sniggered audibly at that.
31 - If anyone starts a speech like that I will fall off my chair laughing.
29. Thanks Morus, that’s very helpful.
FWIW Fox said at 8pm BST that the presidential roll call was almost certain to go ahead, with the breakfast ballots serving as a means for the DNC to pre-scrutinize expected numbers. HRC may announce New York’s delegation for Obama.
31.
!!!
How difficult is it to gravitate toward the key players? You have done a sterling job in gaining info so far! I have enjoyed reading your Blog! Any chance of a key US. player interview or at least a rubbing of shoulders?
He’s not the messiah, he’s just a very naughty nominee.
I’ll offer 8:1 on Obama chanting “We’re ALRIGHT!” over and over.
Anthony Wells has responded to Bob Worcester’s thread.
It’s entitled ‘It’s not as simple as that’
and I think he has a point……
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1351
32. Thanks, I dealt with some Buncefield claims with regard to uninsured losses that some individuals suffered! Since then i have qualified as a financial adviser and mortgage adviser! I’m an interesting individual as i did a post grad in IT but ended up dealing in all sorts of Financial Service deals. Depends, what you are looking for but i may be a good contractor in this area.
If Drudge’s photo is right, then Obama is setting up his stage on one of the long sides of the stadium. Surely it would make more sense (both in terms of fitting more spectators in, and of enabling nice long shots for the TV cameras) to speak from the end of the stadium. This might be an easy way to verify whether Drudge’s picture is accurate.
what 30 million americans will see is Obama talking to a huge crowd of supporters.Very few will care about the backdrop they will want to see what he has to say.
The case for linking to MLK is to say “Look how great america is now look how far we have come we are all marvellous etc” make people feel better about themselves.
Unlike Martin I can well imagine a black president. Just winning the nomination was huge against one of the most ruthless political machines imaginable in a democracy. The obamam camp beat the clintons a fairly good test before taking on the repubs.
29 Morus don’t faint but gues who’s being touted as Rhodri’s successor. Wait for it…..Drum roll…….Peter Hain! They even suggest a By-Election at the Assembly in Neath to get him in! Leave aside how they could win a By-Election anywhere for anything at the moment even if they have only one brain cell left between them how can they possibly think the Hero of Blaenau Gwent can help them in Wales. This can’t be true surely. The mind boggles.
11- Exactly. Americans expect their presidential candidates to at least pretend to be humble salt of the earth guys, one of us. Military experience goes some way to crafting this image. Other staged stuff like slurping up the famous blueberry pie at the Martha’s pitstop restaurant are targeted directly at this factor. It is critical in U.S. presidential elections, but Obama seems so completely out of touch that he either cannot or simply will not do it. Maybe his pride and dignity won’t allow him to stoop to the level of the little people, but he is taking a huge risk by not recognizing the importance of relating and affecting humility.
I tell you what, one of the most satisfying sights in politics is watching a leftie’s campaign become more stupid by the day, before imploding in a dust cloud of furious desperation.
Obama seems to be elevating it to an art form.
OT but moving a few hundred miles north from Denver, it looks like Canada may be heading to the polls this autumn:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/486184
43. Fair enough! Maybe my Conservative instincts kicking in!
44 - Labour needs by-elections like Australia needs a dry winter.
The case for optimism (for Obama’s supporters):
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121979655649074871.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
On topic, Barack Obama needs to give a speech to remind everyone why they thought he was a wonder candidate (not that I ever did). If he is drawing on the anniversary of the “I have a dream” speech, he had better have something pretty amazing tucked in his back pocket, or everyone is going to be drawing adverse conclusions. It doesn’t really matter what Joe Biden says (so long as he doesn’t advocate compulsory euthanasia), but Barack Obama has boxed himself into the position of needing to give a truly outstanding speech.
51. I think it’s a given that Obama will give an outstanding speech. The media won’t say otherwise.
51. It reminds me of:
a) Pastor Wright
b) Cameron last autumn
c) Possibly Gordon Brown this autumn
49 But Peter Hain as the candidate, at this moment! They’d have too fend off calls for a Westminster election in Neath as well. I’m sure they’d resist or they could hand Neath on a plate to Plaid Cymru. It’s so insane it must just be a bit of kite flying before the real choice, perhaps this Euro MP.
51 Oh Biden matters big time to the Campaign. Obama can’t go too hard on McCain. Biden can. If he does it effectively that will help Obama massively.
46 so why is obama still ahead in the polls? The slippage has occured whilst Obama was on holiday…..fund raising still really strong.etc nothing at all to suggest the camapign is coming off the rails.Portraying Obama as an “elitist” is absurd given his background. It might get the ever shrinking republican base out but will make little difference.
44 that idea is so funny many plaid people may laugh themselves to death cusing by elections at all levels.Peter Hain would lose Neath for sure..Clwyd south tough fight between plaid and Tory in the current climate.
@53:
HAHAHA.
I think that (c) is about as likely as Obama formerly accepting the Democratic nomination for second coming of Christ.
38 - It’s fiendishly difficult, Martin. There are about 750 bloggers, plus 15,000 journalists, plus the 4,000 delegates themselves, and everyone wants to talk to the 49 Dem Senators, the 27 Dem Governors, and a handful of other dignataries like President Clinton or Howard Dean.
Even if there was completely equitable access to the Pepsi Center, and no security or Secret Service to block your path, the sheer number of people wanting their attention is insane, and they don’t want to have to meet everyone who wants to meet them.
My next diary (part-written) will cover the DFA event, where I got to speak to their Chairman Jim Dean (Howard’s brother) as well as a couple of the Democratic Candidates for the US Senate - Jeff Merkely (OR) and Andrew Rice (OK). I got to say hello to the House’s newest member, Congresswoman Donna Edwards (MD-04) but an interview wasn’t possible under the circumstances.
In lieu of the top tier interviewees that even the BBC and SKY struggle to get to speak to as foreign press, the best I can do is bring you some of the interesting voices from the non-conventional routes, like Markos, or Lord Rennard, or Jim Dean, or Nate Silver. There’s nothing I’d do differently from this time, but I am adamant that I will apply earlier and set up interviews in advance next time I do this. I’ll have some contacts next time around as well!
57
You beat me to it yet again. I just cannot see Gordo giving an outstanding speech. In fact in retrospect, every speech he has ever given was dour and uninspiring. His last one at the National policy forum was about as interesting as watching paint dry.
58. Try and stalk Scott Kleeb- the most implausibly good looking Senatorial candidate ever.
44 - Hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha! Never in a million years!
Are they crazy? By-election, imposition of a former Sec of State as First Minister, scandal plagued realtionship with Morgan Allen Moore in Cardiff Bay…one of the stupidest plans I’ve ever heard.
Caerwyn Jones is most likely - I’d pick Leighton Andrews. Anyone else would be a serious mistake IMHP, though few worse to choose than Hain. Bringing back Ron Davies would make more sense than that.
57. 59. Indeed. But he needs to give a great speech, it’s just his bad luck that he’s completely incapable of doing so.
57 - But surely that’s quite likely?
The possibility of Gordon Brown making an electrifying speech to the Labour conference made me contemplate the quantum generation of particles out of vacuums by black holes. I understand that this happens, and happens regularly, but you’d spend a very long time waiting for it to happen at precisely the time and place that you named.
60 - He was at the event AndrewG - the guy really does look like Superman, it’s uncanny.
This is probably one of the best campaign photos ever taken
http://www.nebraskademocrats.org/images/228.jpg
64. Good god. I see what you mean. Puts to bed “Show-business for ugly people”.
58. Excellent! You are doing your very best and it is great! I have found it interesting plus you never know what the next handshake may deliver!
52. Indeed the MSM globally dropped any sense of impartiality long ago.
Looking at the WAG though there isn’t a lot to choose from. Carwyn Jones or Andrew Davies I guess.
But anything is more sensible than Peter Hain trying to win a by-election. It is just plain stupid.
Is there something in the water at the moment? Most comments we are making regarding politicians this month seem to end up with the ’stupid’ conclusion.
Bad stars, man?
64. That’s the first time I’ve ever fancied a bloke!
69.
64 The more likely but still bonkers idea is putting in this Euro MEP Eluned something. Apparently the AM for Clywd South so the press say is not well and may step down. But that’s an invitation to the Tories.
69. Heartbreakingly, he’s only 32 as well. I wonder what odds we could get on him being elected President one day!
61. If it has to be a Liberal turncoat, Leighton Andrews is the better bet.
71 - A poorly man shouldn’t be forced to stay on because his party is doing badly though, Punter. I like to think we’re more humane than that these days.
I like to think it…
Morus, what the Democrat mood on McCain’s running mate? Who do they expect? Who do they fear? Who are they hoping for?
AndrewG: He could be yet!
All over now for Obama
Obama = Brown =
Roy Hodgson for PM!!!
Fulham 3 Leicester 2 (93rd minute winner.)
77. Indeed! Obama is knackered!
79 - I think the Obama haters are now going as overboard as the Obamaniacs did a month or two ago. He’s definitely making it harder than he needed to but he’s still at least joint favourite.
But he’s going to have to come up with something better than hopes and dreams in the next month or so or he’ll let front-runner status go.
80 - I still make Barack Obama favourite. He will find it hard to lose in a year that favours Democrats so strongly. But not impossible, and he is doing his best to squander his advantages. The mess that his campaign is making of the convention week is just jaw-dropping.
71 - Eluned Morgan MEP - I know her vaguely, she’s very well though-of, and I think is an Alumna of my old sixth form college..
79 David - I have been saying for MONTHS that McCain would win!
McCain will fry the opposition!!!
75 - Weird - I was just think about doing a post on that! Can you wait until tomorrow?
80 I think you’re right completely. It is I think a huge tribute to McCain that he is even in contention this year. The GOP only turned to him because any other candidate would have been totally destroyed Romney, Huckabee, nuff said. But the fundamentals, the spending gap etc. McCain needs to make no gaffes and have practically every break in the campaign go his way. That’s the situation.
81 - Well I can’t disagree with that so far. Joe Biden is crucial today.
If he is garbage, and Bill is good (and Bill will be good), Obama’s VP pick is going to look ridiculous after last night’s effort by Hillary.
Biden will look good as the crowd will carry him. But the press reaction will be fascinating tomorrow.
80. David Roe: I think the Obama haters are now going as overboard as the Obamaniacs did a month or two ago
I agree. I still consider it almost unthinkable that McCain will win, although it’s now looking like it’ll end up closer than it ought to.
When did JFK go to Berlin believe it was after he was president.
Was Obama a bit too presumptious.
Been too busy to read up on today but I can’t seriously think that anyone would use this as a criticism (I presume it’s because Greece is the cradle of democracy and the architecture of much of the US political system reflects that).
In short, anyone complaining is doing so because they don’t like his politics and/or they are scared of those nasty republicans being horrible to them.
Meanwhile McCain’s latest ad is a lie, not just a small lie but a great fat smirking lie. Voters seem to like that sort of thing.
89- If Obama is going for the Greece as cradle of democracy angle, he’s sure to win over the blue collar Hillary voters…
Yes, Obama should still win, but the events of the last week show terrible judgment, from the needless snubbing of Hillary and her supporters to the choice of Biden to the tasteless grandiosity of his presentation. Too many unforced errors.
BTW there is a quite astonishing groupthink going on on these boards recently on a number of matters, OTT praise and depressed moans seem to be the order of the day. One of these that is prevalent is that Romney can’t be Veep.
Of course he can’t if you look at it logically, but that doesn’t stop people clearly piling money on him or for him to be a McCain friendly choice. It would be preferable for McCain than a weakling like Pawlenty or a non-entity like Bailey-Hutchinson.
Now Huckabee as a choice really is too out there, although McCain will be like a grumpy child if he doesn’t get his pal Lieberman.
89 - I’m not criticising him using a greek temple if he want to ukpaul, I’m criticising whoever on his staff signed off on it, because the McCain reaction is so predictable. Its just bad politics.
I like Obama’s politics, but that doesn’t mean that everything his campaign touches turns to gold - they have the capacity to be really quite stupid at times.
It looks like an ABC photographer was arrested in Denver for the crime of attempting to photograph Democratic senators and big Obama donors on a public sidewalk as they emerged from a building:
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/Conventions/story?id=5668622&page=1
We’d better elect Obama to stop this outrageous suppression of our freedom perpetrated by the Bush administration! Only He can save us!
Apparently Bush did this in 2004:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Bushs_2004_temple.html
New CNN/Time polls for Pennsylvania, Colorado, new Mexico and Nevada :
Pennsylvania
McCain 43% .. Obama 48%
Colorado
McCain 47% .. Obama 46%
New Mexico
McCain 40% .. Obama 53%
Nevada
McCain 44% .. Obama 49%
http://www.time.com/time/2008/poll_main.pdf
71 - Eluned Morgan, I vaguely remember her from University politics.
amazing polls from new mexico and nevada there
94- A bit of a stretch to call the two identical… just look at the photos and compare/contrast. I guess we’ll see how it looks on television tomorrow, but the prop in the stadium does create a much different effect than the four columns much removed from the podium as featured in the 2004 event. Obama has an image problem that he needs to be attending to and his failure to attend to it is not connected to or alleviated by a quite different backdrop from 2004.
97- Maybe those are polls that are beginning to account for a convention bounce?
97 Not really New Mexico has been razor close even as the GOP has been doing alright up to 2006. Add in this year plus the Tom Tancredo nativist wing working overtime to enrage Hispanics and it is hardly surprising at all.
99 SaS. No, polling predated most of the convention.
97 Dan. Indeed. Iowa+ Nevada+ New Mexico = President Obama.
Remember “The Jack W Base For The Race”
92- This is a perennial problem for Democratic presidential candidates; they become so ensconced in their own echo chamber of yes men who reassure them that everything is going great, they can do no wrong, the Republicans are hopeless, that they become prone to sloppiness and unforced errors. By the time they realize what a mess they’ve made, it’s often too late. Then instead of face up to their mistakes and fix them post-election, they concoct cuckoo land stories about stolen elections and dirty politics to salve their bruised egos. Not a very healthy process!
101- Thanks, JW.
101 - Jack, are there none of the Kerry states vulnerable to McCain?
102 - I’ve only been studying US politics for about 10 years but that sounds just about right.
92 - Morus, the McCain camp have been overreaching lately (and the supporters too, as someone on this thread has mentioned as it is becoming clearer), they have attacked everything and there is no real focus, at least on something that can be countered relatively easily.
The more that you can get the McCain camp to moan the better as far as I can see. Each time someone will be thinking, ‘this is stupid, all they do is criticise yet they have given nothing positive themselves’.
As for a backdrop, if it was US flags it would be attacked as being an admission of weakness, if it was photos of US people it would be criticised as being messianic, if it’s a piece of mock architecture it is being criticised because it’s, well, whatever they come up with (Ancient Greeks are elitist?).
It’s easy to fall into playing the GOP game, thinking that their opponents have to overanalyse anything they do, the truth is that it matters little because it will be the subject of an attack anyway.
In short, betters should stop overanalysing the micro-issues, it’s creating jittery markets. Obama’s lead has been between about 1 and 4% for months, it’s about 2% now.
104. Michighan. But then that might tempt mccain to pick romney as VP which would be a massive gamble in my opinion.
94 Well if GWB did it it must be the right thing to do! The situation isn’t the same though - Bush was president, he made his speech at the convention centre and the columns are’nt giant polystyrene leftovers from an episode of Star Trek.
104 Ave it says a number of the Kerry states could easily go McCain eg Michigan, Wisconsin, possibly even the sunny state of Pennsylvania.
99 - If they split it, only a third would have been after Monday night.
109. nah even with his wobble nationally in the polls obama has not lost support and mccain hasn’t gained support in Pennsylvania.
109. Sunny Pennsylvania? Is it? Anyway, you’re right. Michael Scott has been campaigning for McCain, so he’s nailed on.
If Michigan goes to McCain that is a fair number of electoral college votes (15 or 17 I’m not sure of top of my head) to make up.
One thing that Obama’s faltering campaign is doing is making it a hell of a lot more interesting than it looked like it might have been a couple of months back.
Ohio looks super crucial (as always)
There are two ways of looking at the current situation.
1) Obama has failed to put McCain away despite everything being lined up for him to sweep the board
or
2) McCain has thrown everything but the kitchen sink at Obama and Obama has gone away on holiday, sunned himself and is still in the lead.
In 2004, there was only one brief period when Kerry was in the lead on aggregate polls, but for much of the time Bush maintained around a consistent 2 point lead. This time it is the other way around http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php. Credit to McCain, he is fighting hard, but the truth of the matter is, that this appears to me to be his last chance to try and get his nose in front. And if the best he can do is Obama’s choice of backdrop…
113 quite confident about Michigan.
Kid Rock was in Northern Michigan in 1989!!!!
Also confident about Pennsylvania - not sure about the blue collar ex steel workers/heavy industry voting for Obama…….
My Prediction
McCain 274
Obama 264
Even Morus agrees with me the the Obama bounce will be tiny.
And if he uses a Greek Temple facade as the background for his major speech, Any bounce could end up as a jump off a cliff.
by weathercock August 27th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
From the last thread. Hullo Folk’s
104 David R. Obama has a very high threshold of safe states. The only states that McCain is competitive in are Michigan and New Hampshire and even there no poll has had McCain ahead in recent months.
As the race stands McCain’s only hope is to flip New Hampshire and squeek a narrow 273/265 win and that scenario involves McCain holding all the other red battleground states - Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota and Alaska.
104 Michigan and at a pinch if McCain picked Pawlenty Minnesota.
Ohio is crucial for McCain but merely important for Obama.
the roll call of states is away to begin
All Signs Point to P-A-W-L-E-N-T-Y!
or Huckabee or Giuliani……
http://townhall.com/blog/g/f31be67b-9a57-4c2d-a42e-f3f6b52cde57
90. Clearly the purpose is to look like the White House with Presidential columns. The fuss kicked up over this is ridiculous. That picture of Bush in 2004 is way more egocentric. Double standard media, yet again.
I suspect us in Llafur Cymru are scrambling around looking for our Alex Salmond.Discounting Peter Hain,who has the highest profile of those mentioned here,but I just can’t see standing, none of the others get the juices flowing.
Carwyn is popular because of his earlier dealings with the farming community,Leighton has perhaps upset too many people too be a serious contender and Eluned is well ensconced in Brussels so I can’t see her being interested in the leadership. Very nice as she is, I don’t see her as a charismatic leader.
I think one of the great disappointments of the Assembly for me is the quality of members from day one, on all sides. I think it says a great deal that Rhodri has managed to stay unchallenged for so long.
I have no quarrel with the hard work that most put in, but I am looking for inspiration and leadership, which I have yet to see.
ps(Has Barak Obama Welsh roots?)
118 Indiana?
BTW No LEEK report as offered then…….
114 - McCain still has two cards to play, his own convention and his VP pick.
Actually, with it remaining as close as it is there are still lots of factors that could tip the balance. Russia, the debates, a senior moment by McCain, a mistimed intervention by a key backer. All sorts.
118 - Obama has lots of safe states but nothing approaching enough to have the election in the bag yet no matter what the main Obamaniacs say.
I don’t think even if McCain picked Pawlenty Minnesota would come into play - at the last count Obama had at least a 10 point lead and that would come down maybe a couple of points with Pawlenty = but I would say Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota are safely in the Obama column.
122- Tell me with a straight face that the media has been kinder to George W Bush than to Barack Obama.
124 Punter. Yes Indiana and you’ve had your LEEK for the week !!
125. David. Not “in the bag” but approaching the checkout !!
95. CNN/Times poll’s have traditionaly been anti McCain and I wouldn’t place too much veracity in them.
The way McCain can lose is not to have a young and charismatic person as running mate. McCain will probably run for one term if he win’s, (though if he retains stammina brain, could try for 2 term’s).
But he must have someone by his side like Palin, (my pick). If not her, who?
118. You see, none of those red battleground states look too hard to hold. And Obama’s lead in NH is negligible. If you assume there’ll be a last minute dip back to McCain (as apparently Democrats have tended to be overstated by a point at the last moment), I don’t think it’s a particularly hard task.
60&64.I would vote for him, I am sure he has a valuable contribution to make to politics.
94.Well spotted G, Obama’s set pales next to the opulence of that Bush platform. He should be complaining about the lack of gold fittings.
Is anyone else watching this roll call? (I have CNN on) It is one of the most bizzare spectacles I have ever seen, with the state speakers drawn from the same pool of talent that announce the Eurovision Song Contest voting!
“Good evening Montana, can I have your votes please?”
“Senator Barack Obama, douze points”
121 - Giuliani? Blimey, haven’t seen him mentioned for months. What next, Fred Thompson?
129. I think he should choose Palin if he can be sure the scandal hasn’t won’t amount to much. If Obama gets a so-so reaction from the convention, that pick could be enough to give McCain’s campaign the energy and the initiative.
Ave It; I’ll offer you evens on either Michigan or Wisconsin going for McCain. Any sum upto £10,000.
So, if either MI or WI votes for McCain, you win; otherwise I win.
129. I’m calling you out on that comment, show me some evidence to back that up, sounds like rubbish to me. I swear half of you are making this up as you go along.
134. exactly my thought’s too.
127. Not now, because Obama hasn’t led the country to disaster. But compared to Bush in 2000 Obama has certainly had far more scrutiny. Remember when they were calling Bush a moderate?
130 Democrats are overstated in the polls in USA in the same way as Labour is overstated here………
New York New York so good it might vote McCain!!!!!
136. What comment would that be then.
130 thomas. You do realize that what you’re smoking is illegal !!
130. Ohio, Virginia Indiana, Colorado and Montana are all neck and neck in the polls.
140. show me this tradition of anti-mccain polls from cnn.
129. And by the fact that Time has put Obama 6 times on it’s cover this year, versus McCain’s two.
sorry 136 Dan Smith
Back to the roll call vote, does anyone know what happens when a state says that they “pass” rather than giving their votes to Hilary or Obama? (Both California and Illinois have done so)
142. I find it very hard to believe McCain will win Colorado. US Polls weight demographics by past voting patterns, and if anyone thinks the Hispanic 15% of the electorate are going to turnout as low as the last couple elections they are very mistaken.
All these people thinking McCain has the edge are forgetting the ground game - the ultimate force multiplier in US elections.
141. Clean lungs, clean mind!
Seriously, I reckon there’ll be a dip back to McCain at the last minute due to people in the middle of the spectrum getting cold feet, so I think if thing are neck and neck it favours McCain. IF it’s neck and neck. At the moment, it is!
“New York New York so good it might vote McCain!!!!!”
Now you’re just being silly.
Go on, claim California for McC next — you know you want to…
148. What are your thoughts on this?
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3131/2747350483_75f9c45c72_o.png
134 - How could a mother spend all that time away from her young disbled child?
That would be the GOP campaign against her so why not turn it around?
143 - You are right, he is wrong, CNN polls are maybe less than half a percent less favourable on these figures. As for the highly followed Rasmussen and Gallup trackers, they are two of the polls that are most favourable to McCain.
The major polls that are *least* out of kilter are CNN and Quinnipiac. In short, whoever said that was peddling an untruth.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/how_pollsters_affect_poll_resu.php
149 oh go on then………….
It will be all over by the time it gets to California!
138- No, I don’t. I must have been living in one of those two Americans John Edwards liked to talk about, while you were in the other one…
151 - I’ve just checked back to see who it was claiming that, I think it’s called non-evidence based assertions.
146 - “Back to the roll call vote, does anyone know what happens when a state says that they “pass” rather than giving their votes to Hilary or Obama? (Both California and Illinois have done so)”
Do they get told the correct answer at the end?
146 - They pass, meaning they will vote later on. In the past, this could be because delegates were not their to vote on time, or because a state wanted leverage (see how everyone else voted) - Frank King, the famous chair from Ohio in the 60s and 70s used to pass on every vote as a matter of habit, like ‘position play’ in poker. I suspect the want to be the states to put him over the top, for the prestige.
Come on ‘Ave It. Money where mouth is on WI/MI…
Today’s trivial fact…
It would have been LBJ’s 100 birthday today…
147, 150. You see, you may very well be right about . But I remember hearing similar claims about Kerry, which makes me wary of expecting it to happen this time.
We’ll see!
O/T “I don’t want to dance to Alex’s jig”
Been a long time since I praised the Scots Libdems, well that is not about to change just yet. But well done Tavish Scott, who has just given a very robust performance on Newsnight Scotland. This might be a better line for them to take in the long term, time will tell.
He certainly had a point about the media obsession with the referendum question. Maybe the SNP are happy to use this media obsession to derail them from concentrating on more mundane day to day issues at Holyrood and their performance in charge?
153: you live in an American! You poor soul. I guess he/she must be quite a big American…
153. The media described him as a new “compassionate conservative” a lot, in the way “maverick John McCain” has been used so much this year.
CNN Sky 506 all about the Massachusetts LOL
152. Ave it, everyone knows Arnie’s good governance has turned California to the right, and they’ll vote for McCain in a landslide!
New Mason Dixon poll for Florida :
McCain 44% .. Obama 45%
http://www.news-press.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080827/NEWS0107/80827047/1075
159. When did they say it about Kerry? His effort was disastrous in Ohio, and Bush re-used his excellent structure from 2000.
158,
So LBJ and Don Bradman* were born on the same day?
*The Don, of course, was statistically the greatest sportsman ever to have lived - in any sport.
(His batting average was 4.4 standard deviations beyond anyone else in history - no sportsman in any sport has exceeded all others in his/her sport by such a margin. For Americans amongst us, you’d need a basketball player who averages 43.0 points per game at the highest level to meet such an achievement