Is it now more likely that McCain will choose a woman?
August 28th, 2008
How will the final convention betting market play out?
After the scintillating speeches overnight from Bill Clinton and Joe Biden there’s the big rally tonight in the massive stadium in Denver and the Obama campaign must be more hopeful that their convention will end giving it the boost they had planned for.
So how is it going to affect the McCain campaign particularly the choice of VP. ? We won’t have to wait long. For at noon, local time, tomorrow at Dayton in the crucial swing state of Ohio the 72 year old Vietnam veteran will tell us so resolving the last White House betting market prior to the election on November 4th.
Like Obama’s choice this has been kept a very close secret and it might be that the final decision is only just being made today. The McCain camp will want to have kept their options open right to the end as they try to work out who would be best to fight the Obama-Biden partnership.
There’s been a lot of speculation that McCain might choose a woman and a number of names have been mentioned by pundits. Certainly it would change the media narrative and switch the focus to the McCain campaign over the weekend.
Unlike the Democratic ticket the Republican line-up has attracted nothing like the interest in the UK and betting has been much lighter - none more so than on the person who has emerged this week as a possible contender - Senator Kay Bailey from Texas. As I write just £713 has been traded on her on the Betfair exchange which is just a fraction of my possible winnings from the 40/1 bet on her I placed with Ladbrokes on Monday.
This is how “The Swamp” makes her case: “Some observers believe that if McCain chose Hutchison, the Republican senator from Texas, that could really shake up the presidential race and seize crucial convention momentum from Obama…Selecting a woman as his vice presidential pick might appear to be pandering to women upset that Hillary Clinton wasn’t selected as Obama’s running mate. But pandering often works, which is why politicians do it..It would also add a sense of historic possibilities to the Republican ticket, something none of the men being mentioned would do.”
I’ve got a sprinkling of money on the other female possibilities, including the former Miss Alaska, Sarah Palin who two years ago was elected governor.
Mitt Romney remains the favourite with the current governor of Virginia Minnesota, Tim Pawlenty, also in the frame.
As I’ve said before VP nominee betting is a mugs’ game but that doesn’t stop us wanting to have a punt. Who knows what McCain is going to do? Thankfully we do not have long to wait.
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No.
He HATES Sen. Hutchinson’s guts, which anyone with a minimum of knowledge of the Senate knows. To quote a famous journalist, he would “rather join a gay rodeo than run with her”. She is also pro-choice which brings the same problems than other pro-choice running mates.
Other female candidates are Sarah Palin (governor of Alaska for the past eighteen months … enough said) and Meg Whitman (former CEO of Ebay with zero political experience … enough said).
Dont believe rumors or you will lose money !
Oh and Tim Pawlenty is Governor of Minnesota.
Tim Kaine is the governor of Virginia and he was a potential VP for Obama.
Yet another thing. The numbers of leaks surrounding Lieberman suggests he is very much in the mix but the fact there are events planned for Saturday - as was announced yesterday - suggests it won’t be him and you should sell.
He is a devout Jew and does not travel on Saturdays (he didn’t either in 2000)
One other interesting female who has been talked about is Carly Fiorina - the former CEO of H-P. According to reports she was sent by the McCain campaign to Denver and has been appearing a lot on TV. She comes over very well but, of course, has no political track record. Certainly worth the 50/1 that Betfair had until I took it a few minutes ago.
The best way to bet on this market is to lay Romney, IMO.
When Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison suddenly is being mentioned, as Larry reports…. something about it seems plausible. The McCain campaign has been hammering Obama with Hillary-centric ads. They obviously think a lot of Hillary’s supporters are in play
–NRO, http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
***
However:
Senator Hutchison looks like the central casting version of a serious female V.P. She is beautiful, dignified, and of a certain age and class. She is a lawyer by training and did TV work in her early career.
…
But what has she done in her terms in the Senate? She gets into pictures at bill signings. She is smart enough for the U.S. Senate (like Biden), but one has never heard her say anything thought provoking. Could she really hold her own against the glib Biden? Not clear.
Like Elizabeth Dole she got married latish, and to a man who had children. She didn’t have any of her own. No shame in that. But this is a big year for motherhood….
In a woman seeking high office, motherhood serves to reassure people that you are grounded, connected to reality, the grubby parts included, especially if you are wealthy. It is analogous to military service in a man.
…She is basically pro-life, and certainly opposed to late term stuff…
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NjQ4NDk1NDM3OGZiYzE2MWE4YmQ5YmQyZjU5NWNmZjg=
Kay Bailey Hutchison … Backs Abortion
http://www.lifenews.com/nat4219.html
If that’s true, then she’s obviously a big NO NO.
———–
On the other hand:
Larry Kudlow: Sources tell me that the two finalists for Mac’s veep are Tim Pawlenty and Kay Bailey Hutchison. …
The more I see of Obama the less I like him.
I’ve said before that America would never elect a black president, and I’ve seen nothing to change that view. Come November I can see McCain getting in quite comfortably.
Ot but House prices fall 10.5% in a year
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7584877.stm
re 9 That’s great news for home buyers. I hope they slip a bit more so that my younger daughter gets a chance of buying her own place.
10
Mike, Its only good news for first time buyers, for most people its a disaster, negative equity and all that….. The tap of easy money is well and truly turned off.
10. They will!
11. The other thing is some first time buyers will not meet the much stricter lending criteria! So it won’t help them at all! If you need 20% deposit theat is a big ask! Especially at this time.
Lovely to see that the commentators are showing the entire Veep thing to be all about style and nothing about any substance. Americans, like the Brits, deserve the appalling politicians we get. Unprincipled performers rule.
Harken ye unto the wisdom of Rupee Murdoch!!
“Barack Obama = Tony Blair = David Cameron
“In America, Tony Blair would be elected by a landslide. He’s the one British politician they all know and they still love him. He and Obama — and Dave Cameron — are soulmates with their glib platitudes. Look at Blair’s ludicrous Labour conference soundbite: “We are the change-makers.” Look at Obama’s favourite catchphrase: “We are the ones we have been waiting for.” Look at a Dave Cameron favourite slogan: “It’s time for change.” What does any of this piffle mean in hard terms to people having their houses repossessed, their jobs axed and their power cut off?”
- Fergus Shanahan in yesterday’s Sun
With reference to the Republican VP - surley an outside the beltway candidate will be best for McCain. Obama has thrown away all his advantegeous in youth, outsider by picking Biden!
If McCain can pick someone from outside Washington Politics I should imagine it will bring political value to the ticket. This Palin women may do the trick, Romney would be my choice though. He comes across as the best all-round politician i have seen in this election! Shame he has Religous views that may cause problems though!
11 - It’s not really a disaster for most people. It’s a disaster for:
a) people who over-extended themselves with no heed to the chance that prices might drop and mortgage rates might go up
b) speculators who were the stereotypical investment geniuses, ie in a bull market with a short memory.
For the rest of us, it may be a little dispiriting that we’re not sitting on as big a fortune as we used to, but so what? If we’re not planning on moving and we’re living within our means, life will go on.
Personally, I’m rooting for a much bigger drop in property prices. I quite fancy the idea of property speculation at a time when everyone else has gone off the idea. It might be quite an interesting investment opportunity in 2011 or 2012.
14. I actually think British Politicians tend to be better than US ones. Even Nick Clegg could compete with the Presidential candidates. Cameron and Blair would wipe the floor with them.
Romney is good because he has style, Great Business Brain (Money) and obvious political panash.
16. It’s bad news for me because I am a unemployed qualified FA! No demand for mortgages means less demand for advisers and a smaller business market!
16 It is a diaster both economically and personally for loads of people. Housing sales have fallen through the floor. Look tho any estate agents window and you will see the effect. People are stuck in houses they cannnot sell because mortgages are so scarce. You might be “all right Jack” ………….
re 13: Martin, speaking selfishly as someone saving up for a deposit and a first place in a couple of years, the housing market is thankfully coming down from crazy values to something within reach - but am hardly gloating given the situation this places many friends who have already bought.
And Romney is the dull choice who provides lots of money for the campaign, isn’t he? If McCain needs a personal bank, then a good choice, but his campaign was hardly impressive and a female choice would certainly strike a distinct narrative.
5. Agreed! However I closed out some of my huge lay position on Romney last night for a modest profit. There are still a lot of people out there willing to back him at ridiculously short odds which reminds me exactly of how the Biden betting went.
I’m still heavily red on Romney though as I honestly cannot see why McCain would pick him. He can’t contribute any cash due to public funding, he’s not that popular nationwide, he probably owns more houses than MCain (we’ve not heard the last of that one I think) and Michigan looks unlikely to go Republican in my opinion even with Romney on the ticket. Added to that, McCain and him don’t get on and he’s a member of some weird cult.
He doesn’t appear like a good choice of running mate to me (but I said the same about Biden!).
18 - I’ll add estate agents and IFAs to the list. You might want to consider a trip to Golgafrincham, I believe they have a shortage now.
20. Yes i hope to buy my first place in a few years - need to get a job first!
I see what your saying about Romney. Mind you on the money side I thought McCain had gone for matching federal funds, which means Romney money would be of little good?I don’t think a candidate can opt out half way thorugh? If they can maybe they have to repay federal funding?
22 I never saw Hitchhikers, but I know the answer to everything is 42. Perhaps thats the level house prices will drop by percentagewise.
22.
19. It’s like anything else. Buy at the top of the market and you are going to get stung. Houses are overpriced and now they are starting to come back towards reasonable levels.
24. The other interesting thing is that a 10% plus fall ceils Labours defeat IMO. Given the state of the market and the fact that Autumn and Winter is usually a poor time of year to move. Their is no way even with a strong hypothetical rebound next Spring and summer the effects would feed through in time to benifit Labour.
My view once employers strat sheeding Labour, it will get worse! Labour are really in an unenviebly position electorally but they sewed the seeds……….
26
For sure, but that doesn’t alter the fact that repossessions are going to be horrendous and the knock on effects seriously damaging to the economy,never mind the effect to those families forced out of their homes, and those people who will inevitably remain in negative equity for years and unable to move. Socially and economically speaking its disastrous .
19 - Stickers at 26 has it dead on, and there isn’t all that much that can be done to palliate the pain for those most exposed. My main reason for hoping that property prices will drop substantially is because they are still out of kilter with any sensible valuation. Mind you, not even I’m expecting a 42% drop in prices.
I have a lot of sympathy on a personal level for people facing repossession. I also have sympathy for people who just can’t move - my parents were stuck in that position in the mid 1970s, and it put a huge strain on them both, with my dad living 50 miles away from Monday to Friday, so I know exactly how difficult that can be.
I have absolutely no sympathy at all for overextended property speculators.
28. Certainly is! If you were one of the poor devils who took out a 125% Mortgage in the spring of 2007 it must be earth shattering. Usually on these products the Mortgage has a LTV of 95%. the other *30%* comprises of a personal loan.
30. Anyone who took out a 125% mortgage in 2007 needs their head read. When I bought my first house in Summer 2003 I was aware that I’d missed out on the peak and was wary of a turnaround. I didn’t go overboard and settled for a two-bed terraced.
As it is, when prices do come down I’ll be in a good position to relocate upwards, swapping with those who are having to downscale due to over-extension.
A first time buyer asked for a £40,000 deposit might welcome a further fall in house prices.
High interest rates combined with negative equity was the double whammy under the Conservative government. People could not keep up the repayments, nor escape by selling. An awful lot of keys were posted through Building Society letter boxes.
vp watch notes - mccain-Lieberman.com now redirects to johnmccain.com
31. Yes to those aware that house prices can retrench this is true. To those who are not it is not good - I know of someone who got one of these loans - poor chap is really hacked off!
New Washington Post/ABC National poll :
McCain 42% .. Obama 48% .. Barr 3% .. Nader 3%
Note - All sampling just prior to Dem convention.
http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_082308.html
33 test. According to “Politico” Karl Rove contacted Lieberman last week and begged him to withdraw his name for consideration as McCain’s Veep. Lieberman demured :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12922.html
36. A Lieberman VP for McCain would certainly be interesting but could he be of political use to McCain in electoral terms? Maybe Florida?
I think he’d be a poor choice Jack; I read that too and was impressed, again, by Rove. The Kudlow thing sounds hopeful though. I have a long list of GOP likes; Palin, portman, cantor, Romney, pawlenty, kbh, Whitman, fiorina. Lieberman beings exactly one thing , he amplifies mccain’s maverick image. That’s one more thing than biden, who contradicts “change”. But there are many better choices.
37 Martin. Some weeks back SUSA ran extensive polling of different Veep picks for McCain and Lieberman performed badly even in Florida. McCain is comfortable with him but Rove knows that many conservatives will sit on their hands in November if Lieberman is the pick.
Ladbrokes will be booing the following contenders; Palin, Huckabee, Romney & Fiorina.
38 test. IMO Biden would monster Lieberman and McCain needs a pick that will step upto the plate and trade punches with Biden, who it is clear will be Obama’s attack dog.
OT, quick question - can anyone tell me the last time a UK party had over 50% in the polls?
39. Think Rove is correct! An interesting one would have been Bloomberg!
42. Depends if you think it was an accurate figure or not! Probably 2001 if you believe those polls.
42. Good guess 2001 - may have been early 2002 as well:
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Interactive%20Graphics/Poll%20Tracker
13. If house prices fall back to fair value then a 20% deposit won’t be quite such a huge amount.
46. True.
45. Thanks for the link Martin - that’ll keep me entertained for hours..!
46
20% deposit is beyond most people. with average personal debt stratospheric, where is the average Joe/Jane going to come up with 30/40?
49 30/40k
48.
32. that’s on the money. it is the double whammy that counts, the forced sales. add in people being laid off.
thankfully at the moment repos are very low historically (despite all the hype it would be possible for one man to go round all the houses NRK has repossessed for tea), mostly because employment is relatively stable and interest rates are affordable. who knows how it will go from here though.
in the US, employment is falling fast, there was a lot of mortgage fraud (rather than incompetence) and the number of foreclosures is astonishing as a result.
49. maybe you have hit on the problem - it wasn’t a “problem for most people” in a healthy market.
maybe people should be encouraged (forced) to save for a deposit before buying a house, instead of just expecting to be eligible.
jack, Lieberman, while awful, would be better than biden. Your man’s pick was a disaster with so many good candidates available to him; I suspect you know that.
John Rentoul thinks Brown will be ditched
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/john-rentoul/john-rentoul-brown-will-be-ditched-but-when-910675.html
37 - Helps in FL a bit (something seldom remarked upon is the fact that Lieberman practically lived in FL for the last part of the 2000 campaign and helped Gore at great deal in that state - mostly by energizing Jewish retirees)… but very dangerous for McCain as (beyond foreign policy, where he is very hawkish) he’s a pretty conventional liberal democrat who would infuriate the a large part of the GOP base (does McCain wont a walk-out by the Religious Right at the convention? - and just a give a thought to how many Brownback and Huckabee folks will be ready to just that should Lieberman get the nod over a ‘true believer’).
54 test. It’s the way you tell em !! …. Lieberman is more wooden than the Amazon forest !!
56 - he gives furniture a bad name.
52. & 53. Do you believe the state should tell everyone how to live there lives? I think people would be less than pleased that a government telss them to save before they can buy a house! If someone has been to University then they will more than likely have student loans for starters!
The Government is hardly a savings based operation, Public sector debt for the last 7-8 years even in a property boom (Stamp duty windfall etc)!
not defending the biden choice, I see!
56. Has he taken tablets to make him wooden or is it naturally occuring phenominia?
58, when a neighbourhood warden can issue on the spot fines I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the government started requiring a certain deposit, presented along with your Ausweis, sorry, ID card.
Apparently the NHS (in England) is set for a budget-surplus! [Source: http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/7584868.stm
Does this mean that the NHS in Scotland have to repay money to Westminster via the Barnett Formula? Somehow I doubt it!
There are as many one-way streets in Scottish politics as there are in Australian cricket. Open the floodgates…!
58. not at all, but the way out of the mess (or to avoid it in the first place) is to discourage reckless lending and borrowing. so in the current situation where the economic climate is decidedly iffy, that a healthy deposit is required is not “bad”. this has nothing to do with government action.
if you really are a qualified FA you should know that student loans are not taken into account in mortgage applications. this is for good reason, as they are income contingent and therefore affordable by definition.
55 “The head prefect, Miliband Major” — did all Rentoul’s readers go to public school? New Labour: old school tie.
Lieberman does reinforce the “mavericks for change” idea and I like his independent thinking (even when I don’t agree with him) in the same way that I like McCain’s, but he also reinforces the “choleric old man” idea - at least, he seems to have been around forever. Maybe McCain needs a smooth, young, telegenic VP.
After the string of startlingly good Democrat speeches there’s a bit less pressure on BO tonight, but if he delivers his usual barn-stormer the Democrats should emerge with a decent lead. The only risk is that everyone else was so good that if he has an off day people will make unflattering comparisons.
62, particularly pissed because my gran would’ve got that bloody eye drug if she’d lived in the ‘right’ place, and now she can barely see.
I agree with the idea of drug rationing based on cost, but you can’t make it so that you go blind if you live in X, but get the drug if you live in Y. We all pay towards the NHS.
Intrade has settled the Dem Candidate market (curiously not the VP market), but Betfair has not. Will they wait until Obama formally accepts? Seems an unnecessary delay. I want my money now
63. Cheeky sod! - Actually you are wrong there because the older student loans are not! It is tru the newer student loans are taken as Income but if you were doing a needs anaylsis you would look at all debt.
By the way i passed all my exams first time, with no support or outside notes: Getting distinctions on some papers. Just because i make the odd typo on here and have bad spelling does not give you an excuse to deride me. If i was to debate with you in person i would smash you into the ground and spit you out as chips - you pompus leftie!
61,66. do let us know if you ever decide whether you love or hate this central planning idea, won’t you.
52
“(despite all the hype it would be possible for one man to go round all the houses NRK has repossessed for tea”
It will have to be a very quick tea. NRK repossessed more than 400 homes in May
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/06/northernrock.banking
Re. house prices - there are of course winners and losers in the current situation. But at the macro level, the economy as a whole always loses from sharp drops in asset prices, the only question is by how much.
We have already seen a sharp drop in construction activity, and significant associated layoffs. The unemployed in this sector will now spend less. We have also seen a collapse in the level of housing transactions, and this means lower spending on furniture and other household goods, job losses in the sectors associated with these products, and again less spending by the unemployed.
Then we have to consider negative wealth effects on the broad mass of employed home owners, which will also reduce consumer spending and lead to job losses in the wider economy.
How severe these will be is a matter of some uncertainty, but the scale of house price falls and the large extent of equity withdrawal (people borrowing against the increased value of their homes) points toward them being significant.
And finally we have feedback effects. Job losses will trigger repossessions and forced sales, further depressing prices.
These processes will continue for some time - the average length of time to the trough in real house prices in past cycles has been 4-5 years.
The political conclusions are simple - housing gloom is going to be a feature of the political scene for some years, and there will be no early return to the feelgood factor. The next GE will probably coincide roughly with the lowest point of the market.
69, I hate the idea that some people go blind because their postcode isn’t the right one.
Some things must never be devolved (ie defence) and some things should be, but I find your attitude frankly appalling. People have gone blind because some PCTs would pay for a drug and some wouldn’t. Still, no blow too low for the left, eh?
71. Woman from “Capital Economics” was on al-Beeb 1 this am.
They are now predicting negative growth for the entire of 2009.
They are now predicting a peak to trough drop in house prices of 35%.
We’re bust.
65. There is a piece in the Times today that asy’s that if OB does a usual great speech it might cost him support in the country:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article4622184.ece
71
You are wrong. Gordon says it’s all going to get better next year.
68. fine, but please realise that slipping in factual inaccuracies all over the place blows a hole in your arguments.
poor spelling and grammar merely gives a superficial impression of stupidity - i am trying to see beyond that.
Morning all
Re: 14 - Unfortunately, it’s those kind of glib phrases that do go down well with the electorate in hard times. People respond better to a “don’t worry, vote for me, it’ll be alright” message than someone telling them some unpalatable home truths about how bad things are or are going to get.
This is why Obama, Cameron and Keys are all likely to win and why the backlash against them will be severe IF they can’t deliver (or should that be when ?)
O/T but latest poll news from New Zealand:
http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/576182/2041630
The gap is closing but National remain overwhelming favourites to either govern alone with a small overall majority or to lead a coalition. Labour has pulled back some ground but desperately needs the Greens to hold above 5%.
Links for 73.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4622363.ece
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/27/bcncap127.xml
72. the logical conclusion to your argument is that complete central control and planning is necessary, to make sure that everyone gets equal NHS treatment. good first steps would be implementing ID cards and a monolithic NHS computer system, i suppose, so maybe we are on the right track.
76. You are doing it again - I never mentioned student loans being part of the lending criteria: SIMPLY that a Government telling people to save before they can buy a house who make Students take loans for financial support is hardly going to be recieved well.
If anyone is stupid here ED, it is you - Where as most people advocate common sense you use stupidity as your primary criteria for advocating any position. You then try and deride someon personally because you have lost the case. Why Rentoul thinks the Labour party and it’s supporters are nice: I will Never know. People like you are scum - no need to make things personal.
re 11 What rubbish. The fall in house prices is a disaster only for very few, i.e. those who bought very recently and need to sell immediately.
For people like me - bought house 9 years ago, £60k mortgage, £40k remaining, it makes sod all difference that my house was worth £180k last year but is only £160k now.
79 - Ed, who is this ‘we’ you keep mentioning?
For Banks and to be lending 125% of a house value then to be lending only 75-80 % is madness at both extremes.
However as shown on channel 4 this week the head of these banks, still get their bonus, whilst making losses.
So thats ok then, paid on results.
59 test. I don’t need to defend Biden …. I had no cash on him.
He’ll do fine, but in the final analysis rarely does a Veep choice make much of a difference on election day.
re 30 Frankly anyone who took out a 125% mortgage deserves all that’s coming to them, even if they were mis-sold. What has happened to people’s common sense.
80. it is possible to save a large deposit (required by the bank, not the government) whilst still having a massive student loan outstanding.
drop in house prices: rationalize all you want but it’s bad news for the govt. As the polls will show.
81. exactly, and in fact if you aspire to switch up to a £300k house (now worth £270k) you are better off.
re 66 Morris Dancer don’t blame either NICE or the DoH about the Lucentis fiasco, the blame should be heaped where it belongs on the drug company for refusing to licence their cheaper alternative drug, Avastin. They have done nothing illegal in this but morally and ethically it stinks. As Sir Michael Rawlins says we should question drug companies’ motives in this more carefully.
79, 82 — Indeed! What do you mean “we”, paleface? When it comes to ID cards the only “we” I’m with is No2ID.net.
#65
Maybe McCain needs a smooth, young, telegenic VP.
Exactly right Nick! The GOP must counter Obamamania and prepare the Veep to be President in four years. Still say Jeb would have been a good choice - Florida, Hispanics, track-record…!
87. 88. etc. I think the best approach is to try to think of this issue other than through the prism of ones own circumstances. I personally am also a beneficiary from falling prices as I am looking to buy more property over the next 2-3 years and have cash at hand to do so.
But I am not foolish enough to think that makes me in any way typical, or makes the slide in the housing market positive for the UK. Collapsing asset bubbles are always painful for the economy.
86. Yes of course it is possible to save whilst having a student loan, I am saying that a government saying what you advocate is rather dumb politically. Nevermind, you will still be in opposition and have plenty of opportunity to advocate pointless ideas to your hearts content!
By the way your Government through it’s Financial Service regulatory structure allowed the 125% loan- you are going from one extreme to the other.
82. the country, if you believe Morris Dancer’s viewpoint.
92 Fluff. You missed that four letter word that goes with Jeb !!
Another factor forgotten is that mortgage equity withdrawal was worth £10BN to the Uk economy a couple of years ago - this year it will be sub £2B.
Thats a lot of consumer spending to go missing..
93. a bigger problem on this site appears to be the prism of one’s political views. I agree that personal circumstances can make things difficult as well.
I am always extremely wary of any (supposedly economic) commentary that reads “prices…assets…blah blah -> therefore xyz consequences are inevitable politically” because the economics is nearly always secondary to the main objective of making a partisan political statement. The classic ludicrous example is examining intraday stock market movements on convention day - “the City likes Obama’s speech” basically == “I like Obama’s speech, and I have found an out-of-context data point to make this sound like analysis”
Lieberman does take away McCain-Bush, given that he ran against Dubya for the Dems.
99 - Perhaps in your dreams, but not the real world.
98. When people start resorting to bluster or saloon-bar chat it’s usually a sign they don’t know what they are talking about.
63 ed this is the sort of logic which got us into the debt morass we are in:
” student loans are not taken into account in mortgage applications. this is for good reason, as they are income contingent and therefore affordable by definition.”
A loan is a loan is a loan, and if it has to be paid back it is a charge which reduces disposable income to cover other repayments. If you take out a huge mortgage and ignore other debt obligations then you are on the slope to perdition.
33 - that’s interesting, Test. McCain-Pawlenty.com redirects to Johnmccainvp.com, though in spite of being a very close copy, the source code gives it a way as a tribute site.
Fascinating to see commentators, analysts and pundits of all stripes trying to “read the economic runes” and predictions changing on an almost daily basis.
Some optimistic commentators were talking about signs of recovery as early as mid-2009 but that seems implausible. The issue over when and/or by how much to cut interest rates seems to be crucial. Are we now at a point when the inflation hawks on the MPC will be outvoted by those believing the economy needs the stimulus of a rate cut ?
I’ve seen experts predicting a 0.75% easing of rates by mid-2009 which would help mortgage payers (though not savers). However, what good would that do if the other impacts of the credit crunch (job losses) are starting to feed through into the economy ?
An anecdotal observation from my work area - I was speaking to a colleague yesterday. This colleague had been working with a senior officer at a major south-eastern county council. The impact of rising energy costs is having a major effect on budgets within local authorities - schools for example are having to pay more to keep the buildings warm and lit and the same is true for community homes.
The authority is struggling to manage the impact of higher energy costs within the budget envelope predicted for 2009-10. This will impact on Council Tax demands so more authorities will be looking at 5% (arguing it represents inflation) on Council Tax next year.
84 Dez, I agree with you about the heads of banks.
But, there were lots of New Labour Apparatchniks in charge of Northern Rock (Gordon’s sidekick Deborah Mattinson was an advisor, Derek Wanless who headed up New Labour’s NHS review was board chairman)
You’re always ready to sneer at Tories … let’s hear a little criticism of New Labour, who are not entirely blameless in this entire banking debacle.
102. I agree with most of that sentiment, but student loans are really quite different beasts to pretty much anything else.
Either way, my original point was, it is a good thing that larger deposits are now required to buy houses - this will fix the problem that existed where it was too easy to get credit.
#104
A 0.75% interest rate-cut by mid-2009? Has anyone seen the value of Sterling?
If the USD-value falls below 1.75 we are going to import the inflation that $2.00/£ has masked. If Sterling falls below Euro1.20 will be the laughing-stock of Europe!
Inflation is the elephant-in-the-room. A mini-budget splurge this autumn will force Melvyn King to delay interest-rate cuts. :/
“Norah McDonnell reports this morning that she has learned from the McCain campaign sources that John McCain’s final 2 he was choosing between are Tom Ridge and Tim Pawlenty.
She said that was all she was willing to reveal and that the phone call will be made later this morning.”
80, I see someone’s been reading his Little Brown Book.
All people pay towards the NHS, therefore all should get the same treatment. You wouldn’t accept unequal policing, with theft only being covered in Cumbria, would you?
Because all have the same services and goods available no ID card or moronic database is required.
Honestly, I go away for a bit and find that ed is slandering me as some sort of pro-ID cards authoritarian.
Your surname isn’t Balls, is it?
Ridge would infuriate the base but might bring PA, where they are within 5 points
ed student loans are the same as other loans: they have to be repaid.
The loan conditions may vary as do mortgages, credit card loans, personal loans, and so on, but they have to be repaid.
This search for the soft option which is really self delusion or mis-selling, is the root of our problem.
The pressures on house prices are negative, right now, but how long will this last?
We all saw the report yesterday saying the UK’s population will swell to 77m by 2060. That means 15m more people, mainly in the south east of England. Lord knows where we will put them. Sheppey?
By the end of that little population surge a small flat in Peckham will probably cost £40m.
And yet houses are right now, already, obscenely overpriced, especially in London. A friend of mine told me the other day that small poky 3 bedroom houses with tiny gardens in his reasonably nice part of Clapham (still a good 15 mins walk from the Tube) are £1m.
A million quid for a small and pretty mediocre house in an average suburb. Just insane.
Personally, I want prices to drop by about 50% so I can buy a nice gaff in Fitzrovia. But that’s just me. And I’m not sure prices will fall by that much, simply because of these enormous pressures on population, which will inevitably send prices bouncing back up, quite soon.
Who is right? The population pressure Cassandras or the property-price doom-mongers?
108. offering the same services everywhere is pretty tough without strict central control.
unfortunately for you that isn’t really on offer - most politicians in the UK are in favour of a more localised approach to a greater or lesser extent.
112. There are indeed longer-term demographic factors that will bolster housing demand. But bear in mind those projections do make some quite elevated assumptions about net immigration.
105,
Gwynfa, I would agree with your comments about New Labour regarding regulation of the mortgage market.
I`t wasn`t just Northern Rock.
Also they haven`t extracted more sensible lending in a downturn from the Banks, as only lending 75% to people with secure jobs for example in the public sector Police Nurses etc is exascerbating and creating unnecessary problems for construction industry.
Nevertheless I don`t remember New Conservatives asking for extra regulation of the mortgage market, this past ten years.
Only Redwood bleating about less regulation, and a minimalist state.
112. seanT - no need to pay..
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23545490-details/Families+in+1million+homes+tell+of+%27nightmare%27+as+300+squatters+take+over+entire+housing+estate/article.do
115. two points:
* as it happens a large slice of the banks’ pain was caused by importing problems from the american mortgage market. not necessarily in reckless lending by themselves (although some of that happened too)
* pain in the construction industry is absolutely necessary - they have been throwing up identikit 2 bed flats in stupid places that noone wants for too long now.
Norah O’Donnell:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132×6785329
I think a lot depends on whether you view property as a short-term speculative opportunity or a longer-term investment. Even with a 10-20% fall in prices, many people (indeed most) will still make money on their property.
Longer-term, I think people have come to view the property market as broadly a one-way street with a rate of return guaranteeed to beat inflation. For a lot of people, their property is their sole asset of any value and a pension too.
A recovery from say 2011 onward which sees house prices move ahead of inflation will restore “confidence” but will it be like that or will prices move up more slowly ? I confess I don’t know.
Re: 112 - Am I alone in finding the propsect of seanT wandering the streets of Fitzrovia in 2060 deeply worrying ?
117. Third point - seems the economy wasn’t built on a Brown made miracle but on a pyramid style housing scam.
117. I’m sure the voters will understand that unemployment, bankruptcies, and repossessions are necessary natural adjustments to a distorted economic structure and will re-elect Labour with a huge majority as a result.
The threat of Gustav impacting oil prices:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7585578.stm
Once again, we see the extraordinary volatility in oil prices. IF Gustav hits the refinery areas of Texas, oil could spike back above $130 with, I presume, similar impact on the dollar, sterling etc.
Inflation may be the elephant in the room as someone earlier put it but I remain convinced oil price volatility is another huge factor.
112 Supply and demand. London sucks in tens of thousands of young people from across the world each year who will be earning salaries double the national average. They all want to live somewhere the south east and many of them have been saving for a deposit for some time.
121. hard to see what the political consequences will really be at this stage. the economy is likely to be high on the agenda for the forseeable future, that’s for sure.
in the US, they are a lot worse off than we are at the moment, and there was arguably more fraud and more maladministration from government and gov’t agencies. yet there are still people on PB.com betting on a Republican victory in november.
123. for some reason a lot of them want to live in clapham - i think because it reminds them of squalid student accomodation.
124. It isn’t hard to see. The MORI economic optimism index is close to its all-time low, having slid dramatically over the last couple of years. This has coincided with a massive turnaround in poll ratings and a collapse in Labour support in real elections.
Things aren’t going to improve significantly for some time. Against this background, only a miracle can save Labour from election defeat.
Labour need to think about how they can minimize the scale of their defeat. Probably a core vote strategy is best - the middle-class floaters will be unhappy but their support is lost now anyway, having been largely bought on the basis of economic ‘competence’ (for which read high house prices).
The danger for Labour is mass abstentions and defections by the working class base too, which would turn heavy defeat into a massive rout.
117. I think it’s more the case that problems in the American mortgage market stopped our banks from exporting their own risky loans rather than our banks importing problems directly from America.
127. that flies in the face of all the figures i have seen, but do go on…
126. but lots of other stuff has happened in the last 2 years!
Higher inflation is inevitable along with higher pay settlements - its the only way there has ever been to relieve the large debt owed by a too many people living in the UK. People who save and pensioners living off private pension schemes will lose - so much for the grim bottler’s “no more boom and bust”!
Has Brown resigned? How else can you explain this sudden change of fortune…?
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/default.stm
68. Jan, Betfair have just settled on Obama as Dem candidate. And what a lovely feeling it was - I joined the bandwagon very late on at odds of 2/1-evens but when I was very sure that the maths were heavily or him. It was my biggest ever political bet and win and wouldn’t have been possible without the insight from these pages. Thanks everyone.
128. Northern Rock was unable to continue lending because the MBS market vanished, not because they’d lost money in US mortgages.
132. Thanks for the tennis tip from yesterday HenryG
Stodge the core problem is that most people here see their house as an investment rather than as a place tlive and tyT distorts our economy and increases our vulnerability to banking upsets. Germany, where this obsession is almost unknown, tend to ride out the storms better than we do. There are other reasons,too, but the dead weight of housing specilatio. Drags our econmy down faster when the bad times arrive.
87.”80. it is possible to save a large deposit (required by the bank, not the government) whilst still having a massive student loan outstanding.”
Considering the state of the Treasury accounts and the way they have recorded/managed their own long term loans, surely you can see the irony in that statement?
128. Certainly, but economics is the dominant factor behind Labour’s collapse. Whilst the economic situation remained benign, Labour’s multiple policy failures, their corruption, and Brown’s strange personality disorders were of little interest to most voters.
Similarly, Cameron is certainly worth a lot to the Tories in poll terms but he wouldn’t be in the commanding position he now is without the economic situation.
112 “Who is right? The population pressure Cassandras or the property-price doom-mongers?”
Both. In the short term, it looks pretty certain that prices will continue to fall, given the current negative sentiment and the tightening of the mortgage market. However, the longer-term pressure (lack of supply, in the South East especially) won’t go away.
From a political viewpoint, it must be bad news for Labour, as the timing is such that they are likely to be blamed for the inevitable problems many people will hit over the next couple of years. [Note to NickP: I'm not gloating about this, just trying soberly to assess the political impact!]
134. Glad you got on. Nothing worth having today but I’m looking hard at a 7/4 shot for Friday against a player who has only won 2 of his last 11 hard court matches (and one of those was when his opponent retired after a set). I will post later if it’s worth taking, but I’m feeling positive about it so far.
131. The markets are V erratic these day’s Fluffy. Tell you what though, my best investment was buying 100 shares of Apple 8 years ago at $14. Lol
133. ok but this market did not just vanish for no reason.
140. Weathercock. A friend of mine, who used to have a manual job as a carpenter, mainly building fences for people, was always very wary of the stockmarket. One day he was persuaded to buy shares in a sure thing: Marconi I think was the firm. They went bust and he lost a lot of money. Money that he could ill afford to lose.
I felt sorry for him until he won over £5 million on the lottery! It could be you.
137. if you try to be slightly objective and shut out your own opinion on “Labour’s multiple policy failures, their corruption, and Brown’s strange personality disorders”, you might come to different conclusions.
certainly the recession caused by the dotcom bust did not have any such effect.
Why are people missing the one great reason as to who McCain’s Veep choice will be, its nothing to do with gender or money or bringing a state.
The truth is that McCain is more likely than any presidential candidate recently to be leaving his Veep in the top job. As such the one, and the only, reason for his choice will be somebody who looks, and sounds presidential and who will not turn off a major part of the electorate in the meantime
Now that’s a hard task but it does not rule out Romney as much as it does people like Palin, Pawlenty and Bailey Hutchinson.
143. Try to get your facts straight old chap. There was no UK recession after the dotcom bust.
143 - Out of interest, why do you think that Labour are so far behind in the polls? Or is it simply that the polls are all wrong?
MIke; I think you’re wrong to look at this in terms of gender. You did for Obama’s veep and it didn’t work. The Hilary supporter’s are tiny and a lot of American’s see women as unable to be a commander in chief. Because there is a good chance that the VP will become president McCain needs someone safe. In a lot of ways there’s a lot more riding on McCain’s pick than Obama’s.
Just checking out last night’s speeches, a great triumverate in Clinton Kerry and Biden, all of them at the top of their game.
I think people will now see why Biden was the perfect pick.
(My parents were watching in on his speech and were mighty impressed too)
144. How to you rate Rob Portman’s chances UK Paul?
146. a wide variety of reasons.
i don’t think there is as much correlation between economic output and Lab party polling levels as people are saying though.
75 - Martin, one golden rule, never trust anything that Gerard Baker writes. The man has more agendas than a party conference.
147 - Snap!
144 you are so transparent, ukpaul; when it looked likely to be Romney you were trashing him…
now he’s presidential?
KBH, Pawlenty, Ridge, Cantor for that matter all have better experience than Obama. Palin has executive experience. Anyone could be President easily.
150 - It wasn’t a trick question, I’m genuinely interested. From your posts, it would be hard to understand why Labour aren’t well ahead.
For what it’s worth, I agree with you. I don’t think that the failing economy by itself would be enough to explain Labour’s unpopularity, and indeed there was a lot of talk in the last few months of 2007 about how a downturn might favour Labour on the basis that the public would vote for the devil they knew. However, I do agree with runnymede’s general point that the public forgives Governments a lot while the economy is doing well.
149 - Not great alongside Ridge (who I would personally prefer, Pawlenty is pretty weak of the two supposedly in the final two). People will be looking and thinking - Portman as president? - and the response to that one isn’t going to be particularly positive.
I know that Ridge is pro-choice (hence my support) but on all other measures he fits.
153 - I still trash him as I can’t stand him *but* unlike some I separate what I want from what may be.
I don’t want Romney (see Ridge below) but I can perfectly understand how he might be chosen, according to the money he *is* looking likely in any case, the Ridge/Pawlenty thing is quite possibly as much of a headfake as the Kaine one.
I can see why you never bet, I wouldn’t start now if I was you, it’s not a place for partisans.
As for your last point, Obama has had ages to be seen as presidential and the VP choices will have two months, now is not the time for a relative unknown in national terms.
‘there was a lot of talk in the last few months of 2007 about how a downturn might favour Labour on the basis that the public would vote for the devil they knew’
Yes - I wonder if that wasn’t just an attempt to rationalise the Brown bounce, though. Also, at that point it was expected that the bark of the current downturn would be worse than its bite (lots of uncertainty but a modest actual fallout in terms of house prices, output and jobs). That proved incorrect.
154. can you explain why you drew that conclusion?
don’t think i have mentioned Labour.
How are all the GOP veep rumours affecting the Betfair / Intrade prices? I’m stuck at work.
&nb