Why not Condoleezza Rice?
August 28th, 2008-
Is there an obvious, but bold, choice being overlooked?
Choosing a running-mate is a about as difficult a decision as a Presidential candidate can make. The rules are not complex (e.g. do no harm, bring a state or demographic if you can, and ‘complement’ the nominee), but the decision is not easy. Back in December, I said that I struggled to see any of the Republican Party candidates as a Vice President to one of the others. All seemed to be maverick Senators, or Governors, or Mayors - none of them struck me as the sort of men who would do well at the bottom of the ticket, working to someone else’s direction. If it is Romney, or Pawlenty, or Tom Ridge, I’m sure we’ll have a chance to debate their strengths and weaknesses ad infinitum, but before the announcement is made, I think there is one candidate who has been overlooked to a large degree.
The more I dwell on McCain’s choice, the more I begin to wonder whether the candidate he should select is Condoleezza Rice.
Her credentials are excellent - former National Security Advisor, the US Secretary of State - she is a Stanford Academic, who as Provost balanced a multi-billion dollar budget, and so her executive experience exceeds the running of the State Department. Originally from Birmingham, Alabama, she speaks five languages and is an accomplished concert pianist (a key pre-requisite for a successful Vice-President).
The arguments against are well rehearsed, but I’m not sure any excludes her from consideration. Of course she is tied to the GW Bush Administration, as is Colin Powell - the question would be whether she could be re-cast as a moderate who made the most of what was possible given colleagues like Donald Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney. McCain is not exactly running away from talking about Iraq, and her experience of negotiating with Russia, China, and North Korea only serves to underline that Obama is less qualified to deal with a whole host of nations who didn’t give him a standing ovation on his world tour.
I think she poses a problem for Joe Biden, because it forces his attacks on the Bush Administration to be directed at her, and he will not have the license to play as virulent an attack dog against Rice. She is more than capable of sparring with him, but we also know that it can be politically dangerous for a male politician to appear to bully a woman in a debate.
Her executive experience I have mentioned - the strike against her is that she has never been elected to public office. In a way, I think this is a positive thing - she’s not a 36-year Senator, with a voting record on every issue, and she’s never had to say things to appease the extremes of her party to win primaries. On domestic policy, she is effectively a blank canvass, avoiding any embarrassing prior contradictions of McCain. And it keeps the focus of this election (Rice v Biden especially) on foreign affairs.
However, the other key attributes are race and gender. I don’t think she would cause many women to vote for McCain, or for many African Americans, but I think she does undermine Obama’s unique-selling point, and act as a dampener on efforts to ensure high-turnout. The affinity that African-Americans feel for Obama could be challenged if Rice is chosen - her experiences of being black in American chime far more easily with most black voters, compared to his upbringing in Hawaii. Indeed, any comparison between Obama and Rice diminishes him, given that he is running for President and she would be running only for VP. The possibility of attracting women voters for historic reasons is also a plus for Rice.
Ultimately, I have asked many, many Democrats here in Denver who they would least like to see on McCain’s ticket. They are adept at finding cataclysmic flaws in Romney, Huckabee, Palin, Pawlenty or anyone else you care to mention. But their strikes against Rice rely on a world-view that already opposes the Iraq War, that already says that anyone linked to Bush (except Colin Powell interestingly) is tarnished goods, and that no-one can compete with an Obama-Biden ticket. When you play Devil’s Advocate, Rice seems toxic to confirmed Democrats, but I have yet to hear a compelling reason why she would be an awful choice.
There is an element to which you should pick the candidate your opponent most fears. Biden was an ok choice, but Warner would have set off alarm bells at the GOP. Why do I feel she would be a good pick? Because it would put the Democrats into tailspin, and I don’t think they have a way of responding to her from the perspective of people who don’t already agree with them. It would certainly shake things up a bit - but would he ask, and would she agree?
Morus
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I do not think a VP choice has ever made the slightest bit of difference on the outcome of an election. The only interesting feature is for betting
The number one argument against Condi is that she wouldn’t want to do it… the same argument that appeared to rule out Warner as Obama’s pick.
The other major argument is that she is too closely associated with Bush (oh do grow up and stop sniggering at the back - she is just too damn sensible to marry).
Very good argument!
2 Was in reply to Morus, not James
Yes, I thought she would be a great choice a while back, but was persuaded otherwise by the Iraq/ Bush links. However, you’re right to say that this is probably only a critical issue for confirmed Democrats, and not even all of those. The polling indicates growing confidence about the situation in Iraq and the progress of the war on terror as a whole, which, if it holds, would make her a good choice. Her ethnicity and gender would make it a lot easier for those wavering to resist the allure of the Obama candidacy as something transformative. Hmmm. It certainly would grab a lot of attention and steal some of Obama’s thunder.
1 - James, I don’t think association with Bush is quite as gutting as it sounds for non-Democrats. Why is Colin Powell touted as the perfect VP for both McCain and Obama, but Rice is so toxic. I actually think she would be as good a pick if not better.
You may be right that she doesn’t want it, though her denial of interest was far from Shermanesque.
Why not? — Because she’s Bush’s wife!
5 - Exactly. I don’t think it would be good for McCain, but it would be bad for Obama-Biden.
If Condi was VP would Jack Straw be moved to foreign secretary to take charge of the “special relationship” ?
No Rice has no chance, she is Black, Female and partial to Ike!
Obama has problems because he is Black, Clinton had problems because she is a women. Rice combines these and according to the rumours has another “issue” the electorate will not like!
Morus, let’s see if you have the power to move the market…
Rice is @ 50 now (last price matched) on betfair
Betting summary - Volume: $6,981
I think the choice of a running mate is crucial for McCain. His age is a factor - no matter what his current medical status is.
The VP candidate has to be seen as someone who could end up taking over as POTUS.
I have never seen McCain as more than a one term president and so this means his VP choice well placed for 2012.
I am not sure that the current Secretary of State is the right person in terms of the electoral politics. But it is not impossible that she could find herself as the first African-American President…
Don’t get me wrong - Morus makes good sense in his thread up top - it’s just Black, Women and Ike would seem a bit too much for the electorate to take. Especially as she would have a very good chance of being president if McCain carked it or for tactical reasons stood down just before the next election in 2012.
Morus, you lay out a good argument but it just doesn’t seem right somehow. Her name is synonymous with Bush foreign policy and would, in my view, be just too easy for Democrats to demonize, continuing with their desired theme that a McCain presidency would be just a continuation of the Bush presidency. That is the one association, above all else, that McCain must avoid. Also, she’s never been elected to anything. This isn’t a fatal flaw, but a big one, in my estimation.
By the way, it looks like the GOP primary voters in Alaska have just managed to throw away a House seat and, more importantly, a Senate seat. I think my prediction of Democrats ending up with 58 seats (including both independents) just got a little stronger!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121988277457878041.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks
God, Iain Gray is like a ventriloquist’s dummy.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=04AQe5AXxnU
And it’s Brown hand up his a*se. If any of my comrades north of the border think that this man can beat Alex Salmond, think again.
11. Philippe. Morus has moved the market! Rice into 36 on Betfair. I took the £3 at 55 and £2 at 50.
A very good argument Morus. It would solve the collective national problem that would face the US if McCain gets elected. The charge that the US electorate did not choose Obama because they are racist at heart.
McCain-Rice sounds kinda funny as well! whether it is consumable is another matter.
Gosh! “Obama Fatigue” is apparently nothing but a myth…
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_myth_of_obama_fatigue.php
18. Thats a lot of carbs
http://www.planetnewmedia.co.uk/archive/mccain/imgs/about/crinkle_img.jpg
http://readingwritingliving.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/rice.jpg
Apologise for going off topic. I read the US politics entries year with great interest, but feel unqualified to comment on a lot as my knowledge is patchy.
Any thoughts on Milliband looking a bit out of his depth at the FCO over Georgia? His statements are starting to look silly. Not leadership material, wherever you stand on this issue.
Would be interested to hear Dr Palmer’s view on this, as his view on Russia is slightly closer to mine. (I once nearly got him to agree that the US should have assisted the USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan in 1980.)
16. Fast forward to 4-6mins. An utter, utter car crash.
ot
Useless waste of money by a useless Govt that cant ever get an IT project right. ID Cards LOL
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/aug/28/egovernment
20.
NRO’s Byron York : No Romney, no Lieberman
Ok, I’m gonna have fun and lay Romney quite heavily now, again…
http://corner.nationalreview.com/
14. What makes you think race is an important factor? Obama has lead in the polls for the most part, I think it was only 9% of the electorate who said they had a problem with a black president. You’d almost certainly find the same amount in the UK. I think his race is a bonus for more people.
19- We want to hear more! more! MORE!
Obama! Obama! OBAMA!
26 lead = led
When Condoleeza Rice resigned from Chevron as their head of public policy in 2001 to become National Security Advisor to George W. Bush, they named an oil tanker after her…That’s so cool.
A bit controversial and so later renamed the ‘Altair Voyager’.
26- But what part of the electorate has a problem admitting they have a problem with a black president? That’s what we don’t know!
My 333 of backer’s stakes has been called @ 1.6…
26. It will be a bonus for some voters but do they vote already, will they swing key states? If the 9% of voters is spread evenly over all states this may cause problems in some states for Obama.
Even if the 9% of voters are all Republicans, which i doubt - this will cause Obama problems due to differentiated turnout. What you must remember is non-incumbant presidential elections tend to be close - sometimes within 1%. If you get 9% of the population not voting for some-one who is Black: That will cause problems. I don’t agree with it but race is a terribly difficult driver to disconect.
This is a very cleverly mixing/splicing (whatever the term is) of the Gray interview with a classic scene from the comedy The Thick of It.
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=fdWMUfmGnnQ&feature=related
Leiberman now 25/1 on betfair..
16.”And it’s Brown hand up his a*se. If any of my comrades north of the border think that this man can beat Alex Salmond, think again.”
HenryG, they would be mad to elect another Brown puppet, surely they are not that daft?
The more I think about it the more I think how much more crucial the VP pick will be to the fortunes of the McCain campaign as opposed to the Obama campaign.
This is because McCain’s pick will be seen as his successor; very possibly a potential President in his or her own right; with a lot of emphasis being placed on McCain’s age and his (arguably) one-term limit, a successful Veep is likely to be a candidate in 2012 (if not President before then if poor old President McCain were to die in office).
Therefore it is crucial he gets this right. Obama’s choice of Biden was not perfect, but in many ways as Democratic candidacy is all about Obama it minimises the damage somewhat. Any McCain candidacy is going to have the age factor present so it needs to be neutralised by a popular, potential future-president as Veep.
Condi would be an OK pick; she certainly has a lot of experience. And I still feel McCain needs someone with executive experience - there’s an unhealthy emphasis on Senators in this election.
My pick is still Palin (but, as I have said before, I don’t think she’s a likely choice).
34 — That’s me, offering!
6 - But Powell’s career was ultimately doomed by his moderation and attempts to reign in Cheney and Rumsfeld. And he left immediately after Bush’s re-election before the rot set in.
Association with Bush is secondary to her wish not to do it in my view, but it is important.
The reason I think she is genuine in not wanting to do it is that the Vice Presidency is that she has never shown an interest in the theatre of politics - that is a sickness which mainly affects politicians. She is Secretary of State because she is an exceptionally capable individual, has well formed opinions and it must be a fascinating job. I just don’t think she is in the least interested one way or another in winning the approval of 50 million fellow citizens via their ballots. So I do not think she would want to put herself forward for one of the most “political” jobs in politics - a job with no meaningful powers or functions beyond waiting for the President’s instructions or death, whichever comes sooner.
I stand to be proved horribly wrong and indeed look forward to it as I have a little covering bet on at long odds from a while ago.
A Fantastic New McCain Ad:
http://hotair.com/archives/2008/08/28/video-a-new-mccain-spokesman-for-obamas-unreadiness/
Pawlenty being laid bigstyle. Now 5.5
This is from NRO Online -
Seen and Heard
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is definitely in the running to be John McCain’s veep and Mitt Romney is definitely not, we hear. Whether this is more GOP disinformation or an honest leak should be known on Friday .
http://www.nationaljournal.com/conventions/co_20080828_1928.php
39. That looks great! I don’t have sound but can guess what the Clinton’s et al were saying!
US politics rules! It is so dirty and brutal! I love it!
41- thanks, Mike.
I just took about 888$ of backer’s stake @ 1.6 on Romney…
Gosh, had I not lost on the Dem VP market, I would have gamble more, here…
38 - James, I don’t think she’ll be chosen, but I think she possibly should be. The Dems would simply not know how to respond, except to say “but she worked for Bush” and I don’t find that as compelling a strategy as everyone else in Denver.
People talked about the Bradley effect - I don’t think it is that big a deal *outside of the North East*, and not because loads of people secretly dislike Obama on grounds of race, but more because they feel compelled to say that they will support him so as not to be thought racist.
The Bradley effect, if there is one, won’t be because of closet racists refusing to vote for him, it will be people who never were going to vote for him saying they will to assuage conscience on race.
I think Rice undermines that issue - the self-disgust of a moderate liberal republican who doesn’t want to be the white guy who voted for the white guy against the black guy.
Barack Obama, Reaching Across the Aisle 4 Percent of the Time
Only!
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
35. I’m not worried about members or trade unionists or even MSPs. It’s the MPs and MEPs that are out of touch and concern me Chris. They have next to no contact with Members of the Scottish Parliament but are wedged in the influential section one of the electoral college giving them votes worth thousands of party members. All they’re bothered about is protecting Brown by ensuring no distinctive thinking or move to the left of Labour in London. As a result they could shove this donkey very near to the finish line. I’m worried.
44. Interesting point! Do any Dems you have bumped into in Denver think that race may hurt Obama whilst citing it is not a problem for them?
42- This wasn’t dirty at all, unless you consider letting the Democrats speak for themselves to be dirty! Basically, all of the pictured Democrats, including Biden, were saying that Obama isn’t ready for the job, particularly for handling foreign affairs. Pretty damning stuff! If McCain had as much money as Obama does for the autumn campaign, or even anywhere close to as much money, he amazingly could probably win this race.
Beyond what everything said above (she REALLY does not want to get involved in domestic politics) she is pro-life.
As I said before, your lack of knowledge of American politics makes your commentary not very reliable if entertaining
Afternoon all
Re; 39 - I just hope you are as fulsome in your praise when the Obama ads go out next week.
I thought Bill Clinton was superb last night - if you want to see where the young apprentices Blair, Cameron and Obama learnt their trade, look at the master..
45- But don’t worry, Obama will bring us all together! He will listen to conservatives for a few minutes with a solemn and serious face and then pursue doctrinaire left-wing policy.
49. Check out the national journal link above. Maybe they lack knowledge too?
Yep, Clinton was magnificent, in fact for Obama, the Clinton’s literally couldn’t have done any better.
47 - The wave of optimism is unsettling here, Martin. I’ve asked whether people are concerned about it and the standard response is “People who wouldn’t vote for a Black man probably aren’t going to vote Democratic anyway”. There is an unspoken acceptance that Appalachia is lost to Obama, though that could be personal as much as racial in their eyes, but they are adamant that the superior organisation, voter registration and get-out-the-vote strategy will be triumphant. I’m not as confident.
49 - Is that to me, Benjamin?
48. I don’t mean dirty i.e. Currupt. It’s just you don’t tend to get this with British Politicians as much! Usually because it is seen as not working over here! It is all relative I suppose.
I think attack adverts will probably have serious impact on Obama as people’s unconcious bias against his colour - 9%! A lot of folks!
To be blunt, I would have thought the scenario was more like this: McCain’s USP is that he is not black (OK it is not his only point, but it is pretty well up the list). His Achilles’ heel is that he is more likely than any Presidential candidate we have known (with the possible exception of Dole) not to make it through his term of office. Thus choosing Rice (who otherwise has many good qualities) won’t work for him.
Re: 45 - So you’ve trawled through conservative American blogs in order to find a piece criticising Barack Obama…
Big deal.
The American conservative blogsphere is going to spend the next 10 weeks laying into Obama and Biden. It shows the desperation on the conservative side because, let’s be fair, McCain is no conservative by their standards.
44- Morus, I completely agree with your closet racist assessment. It is more a matter of people feeling that they should claim to be pro-Obama so as to avoid possibly being accused of racism, even though they feel McCain would be a better president. There are no doubt actual racists out there though, too, particularly among an older crowd, who just don’t see a black guy as president (more old-fashioned racism than virulent racism). As for both of these categories, we just don’t know how many of them there are. But I’m guessing most of the above-cited 9% admitting they don’t think they want a black president are older folks.
57. What you say implies that you believe all Republican voters are racist, or at least in this election will be motivated by race. That’s quite a bigoted statement.
A black female as VP? I think the whole Republican base would sit out the election.
44 - Yes, I agree that if I were McCain I would try to get her on the ticket in preference to, say, Romney. But I think she would say no and mean no.
On race, there is an important difference between the Bradley effect and people voting on the basis of race. I think the Bradley effect (polls consistently overstating support for black candidates) is not now a feature - as pollsters have noted all the evidence is it died out at least a decade ago. But there is no doubt some people will vote against (and in some cases for) Obama because of his race. Just they will have no problem saying to pollsters they are voting for McCain - because voting McCain might mean you are KKK but probably simply means you like McCain so there is no shame saying it to the pollster.
I think you are right in your last point that Condi on the ticket does help ease consciences. To put it cynically, it allows McCain to win over people who don’t want a black boss but don’t mind the boss’ number 2 being black. It does so at the expense of losing some out-and-out racists/supremecists who will simply not vote or vote for a fringe candidate. I suspect these are few in number and unlikely to vote anyway as there is no question of McCain sharing those extreme views even in private.
54. No! I think you have bottle asking that question to Democrats at their convention! It sounds to me as though they are turning a blind eye / deaf ear to this potential problem!
All of these states?!!!!:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appalachia
Neither John McCain nor Condi Rice have particularly excelled themselves in the domestic field. Neither particulaly have economic experience. That’s the weak spot of the ticket and that is why she will not be chosen.
63 - Not all the states that have some of Appalachia in them, but the region itself has been immune to Obama’s charm by comparison. NY is safe, Pennsylvania is probably safe even if McCain chooses Ridge, Virginia is a toss-up, but I don’t reckon Obama should be that confident of any of the others.
64 - So you think Romney?
65. Ok!
54/63- The Democrats Morus is talking to are rationalizing the problem away since there’s nothing they can do about it. But believe me, there are plenty of southerners who still love their grandpappy’s Democratic Party, happily voted for Clinton (Bill and Hillary, actually!), but will not vote for a black man. They are in states like Kentucky, West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, etc. This is a real problem and help explains why Obama seems to poll most disastrously in states that usually aren’t big blowout states for the GOP, such as Kentucky and Tennessee. These are the folks who are crossing over in droves this year to vote McCain. If the Democratic nominee were, let’s say, Warner, they’d be voting Warner without hesitation.
People are not always wholly racist or wholly anti-racist. There will be a few republicans in the south and democrats in San Francisco or Harlem who will decide their vote because Obama is black. But then we have all of the people who sort of intellectually accept the anti-racist viewpoint but still feel a little uncomfortable. These people will not change their vote because of his race but it will form a part of their decision making, even if it is only subconsciously. These votes are not lost to Obama but he will have to work hard to get them.
That’s my reading of the race “issue”.
66. I think it will be Romney. But he has high negatives. McCain is in a bit of a bind.
63. I think he’ll lose Ohio. The whole south east (which is the Appalachian region of the state) voted for Hillary in the primary, and that area is where the strongest Democratic support is. It’s also where McCain did best in the Republican primary.
70. Dan Quayle! If he ia a virulent anti-abortionist that will get some of the more rightwinger’s out!
66 - I’m sort of there too, G - I don’t think there’s any chance it will be Rice, but I agree McCain doesn’t have many positive choices, which is why I wonder if the best thing he could do would to be to really shake the contest up with an unconventional or intriguing choice like Rice.
I still think Pawlenty, but Romney is the only Republican who impressed me on domestic policy in their debates, and I think executive experience on the ticket would be reassuring.
60 It does not suggest this is the case. The difference between winning and losing can come down to relatively small numbers of people in key states.
Romney’s negatives are that he is too rich and Mormon imo.
But in any case I was quite wrong on Biden!
On the Obama ‘race’ question: I don’t claim to know much about US politics, but I do know the US quite well. It seems to me that the issue, if there is one, is not overt racism, nor even sub-conscious racism. In other words, the problem is not that he is ‘black’ (whatever that means). It’s the more the fact that (unlike, for example, Colin Powell) Obama doesn’t seem to be a fully-paid up subscriber to the American view of themselves, that he seems detached, something of an outsider. Americans are very sensitive to this.
This is a tough election for American conservatives for all their bluff and bluster. The election THEY expected was Rudi Giuliani versus Hillary Clinton. However, Rudi and HIllary fluffed their lines.
Conservatives have had to rally behind John McCain but may hope that his VP choice offers a more conservative counterbalance. Whether McCain will oblige is another matter. His view of conservatives is probably akin to the view Blair had of the left in the Labour party in 1997.
If they won’t vote for me, who else will they vote for ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/edinburgh_and_east/7586471.stm
Tory’s have pcked Scots candidate!
Hi all, Guess I’m going to lose my £30 laid on Palin, But I think that Condi’s a bad choice.
75. It’s funny, when i used to see Colin Powell - I did not see a black man: But with Obama i do!
It is interesting with me some people seem Black and others don’t! Weired I know!
71 thomas. Not so. The strongest Democrat area is the north west of Ohio around the Cleveland area. The Appalachian southeast part of the state has tended to support conservative Democrats which is why both McCain and Hillary prospered there.
79 Further …. and whilst on Ohio, it appears that McCain can’t give away tickets to his 10,000 supporters rally !!
http://www.daytondailynews.com/n/content/oh/story/news/local/2008/08/28/ddn082808tickets.html
33&46. HenryG, that was Brilliant!
I have never been a fan of Cathy Jamieson in the past apart from when she is in her shopaholic persona, but she has impressed me more than the other two candidates during this contest. Having also watched Margaret Curran during the Glasgow East by election, it seems incredible that Wendy Alexander was chosen above both these two more able female Labour politicians. The last person who should be involved with this contest or have any input is Gordon Brown.
The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that Cathy Jamieson would be the best candidate for the job.
I dismissed her at the beginning of the leadership contest simple because I thought the SLP would go for a man after Wendy Alexander.
I can see the choice of her and Tavish Scott livening things up a little around Holyrood after Nicol Stephen and Wendy Alexander failed to shine against either Salmond or Goldie.
77.I thought it was going to be him a while back?
……..And the reason I think that Condi’s a bad choice is that:
!. She lookes tired, worn out and cross most of the time.
2. She would have to resign immediately, and I think she wants to stay and trade punches and insults with the Ruskies. And
3. I dont think McCain would want such High flier overshadowing himelf.
79 Oopps …. North east not north west !!
The tory candidate for Glenroth is Maurice Golden, 28. And from the name possibly jewish?
Various MSM reporting McCain’s Pittsburgh radio interview where he states he’s hasn’t finalized his Veep pick. Mmhhhh …. less than 24 hours to go before his Dayton Veep Revealation Rally !! …. the suspenders are killing me.
My money is on Morus …. double or quits ?!?!
Republican VP is Jimmy Hoffer…….
http://WWW.Jimmyhoffer4VO.com
Sam Coates has an interesting take on the PR week story about Milliband and his inner circle.
PR Week’s Miliband organogram…
“Well this will ruffle feathers. PR Week and David Singleton, whose famed Downing Street organogram marked the start of months of stories about Number 10, have put together another guide to those around David Miliband.
It suggests he has wider political - and financial - backing than previously known.
Expect some hurried denials - Tom Watson will no doubt push back strongly at being described as having “switched his support” to Miliband. And some names will be missing - Peter Hyman, Blair’s former speechwriter for instance, springs to mind.
But it means someone is causing trouble around Miliband….”
87. No link Martin.
86- Word has it that Morus has been too cozy with Dems lately, though… has been spotted hobnobbing with Dems in Denver… more later…
86 - Jack W. “If proposed, I shall refuse. If nominated, I shall defect. If elected, I will make you wish you had Spiro Agnew or Dick Cheney back in the Observatory”
I would beg to disagree with the assertions regarding race not being too much of a factor anymore.
Does anyone remember the polls in the California Democratic primary ? Obama should have won that by 5%, right ? And that was California, the most liberal and ‘forward thinking’ part of the country.
I will declare an interest in that I am politically conservative, of negroid extraction and have spent some time in the US.
89. Sorry a poor joke! Jimmy Hoffer was the american Union leader who disappeared in the 1970’s IIRC! He is the US equivalent of Lord Lucan!
91 Morus. Ah …. the beast surfaces. Word had it that you had been devoured by a rampaging PUMA !!
Has anyone mentioned this?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7586280.stm
Fairly extraordinary news. And probably the best news Brown has had for months. If the US economy can bounce back, surprisingly, maybe the UK can do it usual “me too!”.
Intriguing anyway. And I for one hope we do come out of this better than expected, even if Nick Palmer believes the opposite.
Jack W, did you notice that McCain’s big rally is at the splendidly named Nutter Centre!
If the Dems had any nous, they would have bagged 9,000 of those 10,000 tickets - and then not turned up! Just McCain, Pawlenty and some tumbleweed….
93. Sure. I did know about Hoffer; though his family still lives. Be on the lookout Martin!
94- Those crazy Dems he was hanging out with last night were so disgustingly drunk that they kept stepping on Morus’ cufflinks!
91 - I like the idea of you as some kind of unholy lovechild of Cheney and Agnew. Armed to the teeth in the VP’s office and using alliteration to excess. BANG! - “there goes another of the malcontented mallards of misery”, BOOM! - “got you, you devious duck of dreary dullardism”.
95. (The rebound was linked to strong US exports, helped by the weak dollar, while government tax rebates also boosted consumer spending.*from BBC)
Yes the problem is the US is ahead of us in the economic cycle, they have cut interest rates, given a tax rebate and the weak dollar has boosted exports. The UK in contrast has not got these favourable boons to it’s economy. Rates have not been slashed, Tax remain high and exports may only start to increase in the future - the european economies contracted in the last quarter.
96 MM.
…. But the contrast is stark. Obama fills 80,000 stadium with thousands outside. Meanwhile one man and his dog are kidnapped to watch McCain/AN Other do the Veep fandango !!
100. Yes a 3% cut in interest rates and massive tax rebate has not quite hit the Uk yet…
97. Maybe i should become a private investigator! A sort of inspector cluso!
It amused me when i worked at Tory HQ, I used to see Hague and Coe hanging around! Hague used to make a big deal about his marshal arts prowess. I could always imagine Coe in a similar role as that chinese guy in the peter sellers films jumping out at hague and attacking him off guard! Better than what Jefferey Archer is said to have thought about the Judo - Archer was alleged to have wanted to make out with his lady friend on the mats that Coe and Hague performed on!
103. Shhh don’t mention Coe and Hague and “judo” in the same paragraph…
102. Although Brown claimed the 10p Tax u-turn / mistake was intended as a similar thing! Brown should stick to eating choclate cake, taking blondie for walks and planning his demise and burning of his body outside the No.10 bunker!
105, it’s hard to know whether he’s a thoroughly inept liar, or actually drifting into a delusional state. Could be both, I suppose.
I hope his health improves, but his poll rating does not. Sadly, the two may be inextricably linked.
105- I didn’t know Hitler liked chocolate cake (of course, who doesn’t)…
92 Jeremiah, welcome. I do remember the California primary, as it cost me some money. Obama had raised more money in state than Hillary, and the general trend of the polls was that he was only a few points behind. There were some showing him in front, but they were outliers.
For what its worth, I think any Bradley effect is confined to the North East and to the WEst Coast - liberals exaggerating their lack of racial bias when questioned perhaps? Nate Silver at 538.com has done a fair bit of analysis (which I partially support - I don’t like ‘trend lines’ as a way of predicting, as +8,+9, +12 could give a trend of greater than 12% never actually seen) to show that outside of the North East, there was actually a Yeldard Effect (Bradley backwards).
If anyone has the link, I’d be very grateful.
100 - It does have a weak pound to help exports (I am not claiming this as a policy triumph, just saying).
The tax rebate also appears to have had a comparatively small impact if any - I think the claim in the report that the slight increase in growth in consumer spending is necessarily linked to the rebate is highly dubious and not supported by conventional economic theory.
Interesting stuff on the people allegedly working on Miliband’s career planning:
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/08/pr-weeks-miliba.html
If there’s any truth in it, I somehow think it would not go down well with the party as a whole - too tainted with Blair.
108. Morus any news on Peter Hain? On that story it looks ike genuine kite flying. But if anyone could ensure Labour meltdown it’s him. He managed to deprive Labour of Blaenau Gwent two times in a row!
106- What’s wrong with Brown’s health? I know he looks terrible, but is there some factual information? By the way, I saw Dick Morris on TV this morning and he looked shockingly bad. Not sure if it was just a massive bender or if he’s in dire straits too…
Talking of California, anyone prepared to lay me decent odds against the Republicans winning the state?
112, not that I’m aware of (factual information that is).
But he’d have to be delusional not to be depressed and stressed at the position he’s in, particularly given the lengthy wait followed by a rapid ascension in the polls.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 48%
Note - 5 point net bounce since yesterday - O45/M44
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109897/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-Ahead-48-42.aspx
Latest Gallup poll gives Obama the bounce:
Obama: 48% (45%)
McCain: 42% (44%)
112. “What’s wrong with Brown’s health? I know he looks terrible, but is there some factual information?”
Well there’s the polls…
Damn those sprightly 105 year olds…..
Obama campaign is organizing a protest in Chicago aiming at getting a conservative talk show host kicked off the air:
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/08/obama_campaign_confronts_wgn_r.html
A troubling sign for freedom of speech in Obama’s America, especially since he’s bold enough to start this sort of thing before he’s even been elected. In light of this, I’m sure Obama will be a big supporter of a resurrected Fairness Doctrine, which can finally officially shut down conservatives on the radio…
117
did you mean polls or pills?
115/116- Obama’s well on his way to my predicted minimum bounce to 50% to 40%. And everyone was attacking me about this prediction!
That sizeable one day movement in the Gallup tracker presumably now takes in the Hillary speech - and perhaps suggests that tomorrow’s tracker might get close to 50:40 (after the Bill Clinton speech is included).
121 Doh!! S&S, are you 105 too?
123- No, but I do like chocolate cake…
119. That’s not damaging freedom of speech. Damaging freedom of speech would be refusing to allow people to call for someone’s sacking. Freedom of speech does not mean freedom from people disagreeing with you. This is a private campaign and a private company, I don’t see how this is related to freedom of speech.
Has Rice ever campaigned? Surely you need serious experience of running for some kind of political office. I’m happily laying bets on her. No way. Don’t see it happening at all.
111 I’m not best-placed to get any news on Hain at the moment, but if I see the folks in the next few weeks, I’ll ask around. I still can’t take the thought seriously !
125- You don’t have a problem with a presidential candidate and/or president trying to have members of the media fired who dare to criticize him/her? I’d hate live in the land of President G…
118 MM.
New diary now up
Cheers,
Morus
128. I don’t have a problem with private citizens calling for other private citizens to do something. That’s freedom of speech.
Obama is not using the state to censor people. That would harm freedom of speech.
This is no different from calling for HRC to distance herself from Gerard Ferraro. Or asking for Samantha Powers to be sacked.
119. Stars & Stripes, given the apparent role which operation chaos had in the outcome of Texas and Ohio, do you think if he does indeed become POTUS, he will make a more overt attempt to exact revenge ?
Brian Schweitzer being interviewed by some blogger at the Big Tent
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KincMnVxS4s&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/
He says that journalists clearly don’t take mathematics…!
131- “I don’t have a problem with private citizens calling for other private citizens to do something.”
Too bad that’s not what we’re talking about. This is OBAMA, through his apparatchiks, trying to shut down media dissent.
For all the hyperbolic howling we’ve heard over the years about Bush trying to take away everybody’s freedoms, he was never so bold as to attempt to get members of the media fired. But I guess you’re happy with Obama’s actions since it’s the bad voices that just might get silenced.
132- We just don’t know what he’ll do in the way of revenge, but given that Obama is bold enough to try to get a voice of media dissent shut down before he’s even won the election is a very bad sign. If he thinks it is wrong for people on the radio, such as his current target, to criticize him, I’m sure he’ll re-enact the Fairness Doctrine, which will bring to an end the radio careers of folks like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and other conservatives. But would he stop there? You tell me.
MORUS, would be interesting to know if you are actually going to the Denver Broncos stadium tonight (have not read your diary yet)
I’ve not got a ticket yet…over half of them (40k0 went to local people from Colorado, as a ‘thanks for having us’ then everyone from the pepsi center (another 20k), then there was a phone line for each state to get the remaining ones (about 12k).
I’m going to ask around, but I very much doubt I’ll be able to get in. A shame, but I wouldn’t be able to blog from there anyway. It’ll have to be a live blog from the Big Tent, I’m afraid.
John & Jeb, John & Jeb, John & Jeb!
Greatest solution since Ginger & Fred. Ave it ‘08!
I dont know what it is, but there is something about Connie that just gets me a little excited.
Yes, i know i am disturbed, but there you go… I wish she was a presidential candidate
I agree the Clinton’s did a great job over the last two nights, personally I thought Hilary’s speech was the better, was not overly impressed with Biden though, I still think the choice of a liberal east coast democrat as VP could yet be a mistake.
As for McCain’s choice, for me it has to be Bailey-Hutchinson. It would serve several purposes, it will make uneasy those Hilary supporters who currently say they will vote for McCain (and despite how good Hilary’s speech was, they have not gone away as a problem for Obama) and keeps the prospect of thiose voting McCain a real possibility. Hutchinson is also a Karl Rove client, meaning Rove’s disciples of master strategists who may have been uneasy about helping McCain due to previous battles, could come back on side, if anyone knows how to steal an election they should probably lose, it is them.
Bailey-Hutchinson also opens up huge fund raising potential through the rich Texas belt, that, along with the support of Schwarznigger in Calafornia and Juliani and Bloomberg in New York, means key funding strams in all the key areas are widely opened up. It also ensures a southern Republican is on the ticket to fight in key southern states, as McCain although southern himself, will be spending most of his time playing to more moderate voters in the key Northern and western states. By contrast Obama with his choice of Biden can be portrayed as an typical east coast democrat pandering to tradition east coast issues which have nothing to do with the aspirations of the south. This portrayal cost John Kerry dear four years ago, and the Republicans could do this again as there are more key swing states in the south than in the New England area.
For the other contenders, Rice is too close to Bush, Palin is from the isolated island state which is porbably therefore not a wise choice. The rest are obviously not women, and each have problems of there own too. The Texas Senator would unite all sides of the Republican party while not offending moderates and in choosing a woman playing right on the turf the Democrats clearly thought at the start of this process was there own. It meets all of the criteria of a winning strategy, and is a huge opportunity for McCain, if he is willing to take it.
Iraq surely is no issue at all. Bush did win in 2004, and the situation is far better now. Even if it is John McCain is surely far more associated with it than Condaleeza Rice is.
Romney is trading at ridiculous low price on Betair. Last match = 1.51. Someone knows something surely to justify these odds.
O/T
Celtic drawn with Aalborg! Obviously they will both be playing for the UEFA-spot!
130. Wow that must be something seeing Bill Clinton in the Flesh! Or any US president current or past for that matter!
Free Beer eh? Sounds like paradise to me! After you have had a few the taste no longer matters!
Just out of interest do they have any of those dinners with red & White checked table cloths anymore or is that sort of stuff confined to Happy Days etc? (I still think Malcolm wicks looks like Ritchies dad by the way!).
I introduced myself as PoliticalBetting’s Special Correspondent for Colonial Affairs.
Yes, seeing the big cheeses there must be interesting - Is gore there?
134. Errr.. yes it is.
OBAMA through his apparachicks is asking (through a peaceful protest) a media station to not have a someone present a show. He is not shutting down media dissent. I imagine that the radio show will still be presented by the same guy after the protest and he will probably add “Obama is tryng to shut up my freedom of speech” to his other lies.
No one is being coerced. No force is being used. Everything is optional. There is no way this is damaging to anyone’s freedom.
145.I should imagine they will just to tell him to F*ck off! That sort of thing does Obama no favours - who does he think he it the president?
The republicans could have fun with that!
To contrast Uk/US politicians - Obama has something of the Clegg about him: Talked up but not able to deliver the goods?
New Hill Research Consultants poll for Colorado :
McCain 40% .. Obama 43%
Note - Sample all pre Convention.
http://www.politickerco.com/jeremypelzer/2129/schaffer-campaign-poll-shows-dead-heat-us-senate-race
O/T: CH4 News Heating or Eating - When my gas provider put the bill up a year or two ago and i complained! They advised me to use candals to heat the room and create light - Interestingly I had started doing this already!
O/T
Bettany Hughes is on History Channel + 1 (Sky 530). Thank you!
145- Okay, I’ll take your word for it that you would have been singing Bush’s praises had he organized efforts to get dissenting journalists fired at the height of his popularity post-9/11. Sounds plausible. I’m sure no other Democrats would have seen anything wrong with it, either (abuse of power, threat to fourth estate, etc.).
Obama should be fighting his opponents with arguments, not attempts to silence them by taking away their access to their audiences. If Bush or McCain did this, I would be condemning them, too. Shame on Obama.
I wonder if the real reason Labour have let fuel prices go up so much is politically inspired?
That is to kill as many of the over 65’s as possible in an effort to dint the tory/LD vote - May sound crazy but it is a little convenient those who will be worse effected are also least likely to vote Labour.
Labour have killed 500,000 in Iraq, what is a few hundred thousand deaths in the old to them?
It’s a knockout…!
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_EQc_hLHXONE/SLafnuIRpLI/AAAAAAAACJ4/5t9OHtb7VOU/s1600-h/sane.JPG
Obama is a typical leftie he will use anything even his colour to avoid scrutiny!
Obama could be looking at a heavy defeat IMO.
145- By the way, it may seem “optional” for now, but once we have President Obama with a supportive Congress at his disposal, Obama will have the tools at hand to make his opponents’ employment at various media outlets much more forceful. Since he sees the tactic of silencing opponents as a legitimate one, there is much to be feared for those who cherish freedom of speech.
136
Denver Broncos, Happy memories of the Washington Redskins stuffing John Elway et al 42-10 in Superbowl 22. Doug Williams greatest gamer ever.(though it wasn’t at the mile high stadium and was a long time ago ..late 80’s ????
154- arguments against their employment, that is…
154. Typical leftwinger - he will probably grow a beard as well.
138 Brilliant McCain/Bush for freedom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obama = HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
157- The left has always had a shaky relationship with the concept of free speech and one can’t feel too comfortable relying on them to protect it. It seems that, to their minds, free speech is leg