How do the Republicans match this?
August 29th, 2008-
Might Minneapolis-St. Paul look like something of a damp squib?
For all the criticism levelled at the Obama campaign for being ‘presumptuous’, it is difficult to deny that they put on a pretty spectacular show at the end of an optimistic and, for Democratic Party activists, uplifting Convention.
I managed to get a Community Credential at the very last moment, so made it in only a couple of hours before Obama spoke. The atmosphere is difficult to describe - somewhere between a fantastic sporting occasion (Rugby World Cup Final, or a what I imagine the Superbowl to be like), with all the paraphernalia of a political party conference. ‘Flag-waving’ is so often used as a perjoritive adjective, but in this context it was so apt as to add to the general sense of frustrated, anticipative euphoria.
I have been somewhat critical this week of the excessive optimism of the Democratic activists, but that should not be mistaken for complacency. Their optimism stems from seeing quite how energetic and motivated their base is, and how readily they are attracting working people who never thought they would vote against the Republicans. When Daily Kos ran a series of articles by its leader writers, each picking a previous election with which to draw parallels, I though they missed the most apposite of them all. Re-reading Hunter S Thompson’s Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail ‘72, you realise that this coalition of under-25s, African-Americans, anti-war activists and insurgent activists is not new, but that unlike in 1972 they have an electric candidate and a truly professional organisation that can translate that euphoria into votes in a more effective way than ever before. Also, by making peace with the Party establishment (working with the Clintons, choosing Biden, getting the Kennedy endorsements), they are avoiding the worst mistakes that McGovern made - picking an unreliable entity for VP, and alienating the party machine (Mayor Daley and the Union masters like George Meany).
I arrived in time to see Governors Kaine and Richardson, followed by Al Gore, with a musical interlude by Stevie Wonder. Then came VP nominee Joe Biden, and Obama’s senior partner in the Illinois delegation to the US Senate, Majority Whip Dick Durbin. Interspersed with Generals and Admirals, Teamsters and Teachers, the build-up to what I thought was Obama’s strongest (and I choose that word carefully) address to date ensured that he would not fail to meet expectations. I try to be as cynical as possible at political events, though I rarely succeed. This, however, was in a different bracket altogether - this event left you breathless.
The main difference, as many have noted, was that the loftier rhetoric was preceded by an unashamed policy speech - covering the economy, national security, energy, medicare - the full gamut. There was a more strident, purposeful tone. Shorter sentences (”Enough!” comes to mind), more incisive jokes, and a careful balance between respecting John McCain personally (he got a round of applause for his military service) and hammering him for his recent political manoeuvers. ‘Change’ was still the theme, but it was superseded by the notion of ‘Promise’, with all the added weight that implies.
In some ways, it was easier for the Democrats. They are running against an historically-unpopular two-term Republican administration, with unresolved conflicts overseas, and dire economic circumstances at home. There is never any shortage of material to use against your opponents in those circumstances, and they managed to use all of their big names to punch the message home.
Conversely, the Republicans are in something of a pickle. Their nominee, whilst in my opinion the best candidate they could have chosen, is not the most-loved member of his Party. There are no obvious candidates for VP (a decision we expect to be announced today) who will enthuse the GOP without alienating at least some of the core vote, and they are being forced to defend an administration that the country no longer supports.
Perhaps the most telling thing about the Bush-Cheney years is the disappointment that is felt by so many on the American Right. Isolationists have been upset by the Iraq War, deficit hawks appalled by the near three trillion dollar national debt, and in spite of also holding both houses of Congress, Bush was never able to reward his evangelical base by appointing Justices to the Supreme Court who would overturn Roe v Wade. It is not easy to find any conservative group, other than the neo-conservatives themselves, who can claim that the last eight years have been a success. Inevitably, the RNC Convention will have to play into the theme that this election is a referendum on Barack Obama’s potential to lead, meaning the tone of the Convention will be inherently negative.
Now that one of the few popular stars of the Party, California Governor Arnold Schwartznegger, may not be able to attend, there must be a real danger that the RNC gets nothing like the sort of bounce that the Obama campaign has begin to register. Failure to catch Obama quickly after the success of this week could be fatal for McCain’s chances. He needs something out of the ordinary, either from his VP pick, or from the Convention itself. I’m not entirely sure how McCain can light the touch paper from such a difficult position, but if he does find ‘it’, he might want to share his findings with Gordon Brown, ahead of this month’s Labour Party Conference.
Morus
MessageSpace Advertising
They can’t.
Sarah Palin……..
2 - Try again
Palin the Paladin.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 49%
Note - Up 2 more points from yesterday.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109933/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Stretches-Lead-Points.aspx
Fear and loathing on the campaign trail is superb. Hunter S Thompson, as well as being a great Freak, was a really good political analyst.
Theres an awful lot of froth just now. No one can know how it will pan out. Lets see which way the wind is blowing in a week’s time!
Is there a Nuremburg within the United States…?
7. Yes, the fundamentals for the Republican ticket are better for a GE than the Democratic ticket IMO though! That’s why i think McCain will win it!
Apologies for going O/T.
Joey Jones over at Boulton&Co blog.
The Death Of Collegiate Gordon
“So this, as I understand it, is the shape of the Brown fightback (until they change it again).
Strong words for Russia at the emergency EU Summit called by President Sarkozy on Monday.
A package of measures to stave off repossessions and inject momentum into the housing market on Tuesday.
And on Wednesday, financial help for people to help deal with rising energy costs.
And what of the relevant cabinet ministers? Well don’t expect David Miliband to get too many words in edgewise in Brussels.
It’s not clear whether Caroline Flint will be able to get back from holiday for “her” announcement, and John Hutton will be in Brazil on a trade mission on Wednesday.
Other cabinet figures are in the dark as to whether they’re required or not.
Not too many tears will be shed in Downing Street at that, though.
This is all about one man - Gordon Brown.
Cabinet feathers ruffled? Undoubtedly. And sidelining ministers who’ve been putting in the spadework behind the scenes isn’t risk-free.
Look at Alistair Darling. He is being put in a particularly awkward position.
The Chancellor’s role right now is somewhat demeaning. He must bankroll a costly Save Gordon campaign - (as I outlined a couple of days ago).
You never know… someone with Darling’s experience and acumen might conclude he is being required to break the bank to remedy self-inflicted wounds and paper over the cracks of an unsound political position.
No wonder that in Labour circles there is talk that a Geoffrey Howe-style resignation should not be ruled out.”
This is the classic behaviour of one Gordon Brown, Chancellor in Tony Blair’s government. Its all about me, me, me. If his government colleagues are stupid enough to allow him to continue doing this to the detriment of all their careers, the government and the Labour party then they really are all over promoted pygmies.
Kennedy only won by a whisker, if that.
Repost for James Schneider @1 last thread:
1. Apologies for such a late reply. Having only read up on her for about 30 minutes I do like her stance on almost everything. I’m not a Christian but believe in most values and as a gay man I actually side with her views that there should not be gay marriage - only unions. (I’ve been told many times that I’m a useless gay - mainly due to this post: http://therightstudent.com/2008/08/homophobic-attacks-vs-equality.html )
She seems like a woman who stands up for what she believes in, fights corruption and is not afraid to appoint or praise Democrats and independents.
A politician we can all look up to.
7. You were right MTF about the local authority providing the loft insulation! I have just had a letter through about it today and have researched the source of money providing it!
Wished i had not put that rather crude but jokey reply to NP though on the other thread!
Beer! 
Republicans will indeed have a tough time toping the Denver convention. Situation is similar to 1992. Except I think Palin is NOT Dan Quayle.
Believe Palin will give the GOP convention and John McCain a boost of adreniline. BUT fundamentals (in particular recession and other rancid Bush/Cheney dingleberries) remain bad for the Geezer and the Arctic Fox.
Personally like John McCain. And personally find Susan Palin more attractive than Joe Biden. BUT on policy I’m with Obama-Biden all the way. Thus voting Democratic because an election is NOT a personality contest.
Speaking of personality, perception, image:
–at Denver both Obama and Biden came across as too smooth and tailored for my taste. A large part of Obama’s charm is his Lincolnesque gawkiness; and nobody every voted for Abe as best dressed.
–in Dayton today both McCain and Palin came across as a tad rumpled; McC actually rumpled and Palin as upper-lower-middle class. Now this cuts different ways with different voters, with the divide largely driven by class/income/education/mindset.
Personally think there could be an East-West split on Palin the way there is with Obama. Though Palin has clear potential with Eastern/Southern lunch bucket White ethnic/rural Democrats who saw Hillary as the lesser of evils in the primary.
BTW, Gov. Palin is currently being investigated by the Alaska legislature, due to allegations that she interfered inappropriately with in state public safety hiring, in case of in-law involved in messy divorce & custody battle.
Don’t know the rights or wrongs about this, except to point out that by definition there is plenty on and off the record way up in Alaska that may or may not become relevant to the 2008 presidential campaign.
10 put a clock on to see how long it is till Nick Palmer comes on to deny any idea of a plot.. tick tick tick..
13 Martin, I am always right until I am proved wrong !!!
The Carpet returns…
Evening all – this is my first appearance on PB for quite a while now. I have been away from the site due to the death of my sister, who had cancer and passed away at the age of 38 earlier this month. Despite it obviously being a difficult time for me and my family, I have nevertheless been browsing PB regularly as well as keeping an eye on the moderation box.
Needless to say the site has been as excellent as ever, and a special mention for Morus whose coverage from Denver has been outstanding.
I will be aiming to make a full return to PB next Sunday (I am away with my parents this weekend), but all being well there should be a guest article on Canada out at 5pm on Sunday – in the event it doesn’t appear then it will be out next Sunday.
A few thoughts then on the “autumn season” which is now upon us – I will be focussing on six countries, so it will be an extremely busy few months.
USA – my “gut feel” is that it will be a narrow McCain victory in November with a close Electoral College result for the third election in a row. There’s plenty of value on Betfair for McCain but I think the polls could well be close for the next two months. As others have highlighted, the first debate in Oxford, Mississippi on 26th September is extremely important. Of the two VP picks, I feel that Palin is the more exciting choice, and my initial reaction to Biden was largely confirmed by unenthusiastic comments on PB and elsewhere.
UK – the conference season looms, and will Brown still be in a similar position to today once the TUC and Labour have met? Glenrothes looks a very likely SNP gain, and might November finally see Brown put out of his misery following a Labour loss in his own backyard? Is Miliband or someone else really going to have the courage to strike, and is Gordon’s current “last chance” the real thing or merely the last chance before the next last chance?
Canada – an election could be announced as early as next week, with Monday 20th October already mentioned as a likely date. I won’t pre-empt the excellent forthcoming guest article, but suffice to say that the result could be similar to last time, with another Conservative minority government led by Stephen Harper looking the most likely outcome at present.
Israel – the Kadima leadership primary takes place on 17th September, with a runoff if needed to be held on 24th September. I think that Mofaz may take it, even if Livni looks the more exciting choice to non-Israelis. The irony is that although polls suggest Livni might be worth an extra six Knesset seats compared to Mofaz at an election and would run Likud very close, she will probably find it harder than Mofaz to form a new government should she win the leadership, as Shas may well decide to jump ship.
Austria – votes on 28th September, and there has already been plenty of polling and the start of the many leader debates. The country now resembles Israel, the Netherlands or Denmark in terms of party fragmentation, with the “big two”, the Social Democrats and People’s Party, both polling under 30%. Sitting Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer is so unpopular he won’t even be leading the SPÖ into the election, having been replaced by the more popular Walter Faymann. The other major news is the return of Jörg Haider as lead candidate for the BZÖ.
New Zealand – no date yet announced but the election has to be held by 15th November. Polling is here and although the Nationals do not hold the massive leads they once enjoyed, nevertheless they are still comfortably ahead, so all being well my investment is still safe.
Anyway, that’s it for now – I should be back looking after the site next weekend, and as ever it’s a privilege to be able to work alongside two giants of the political blogosphere in the shape of Mike and Morus.
Cheers & all the best.
14 - SSI… “Susan Palin” - those two words from yourself probably summarise what the whole of America is feeling right now.
Priceless
What I mean is, Palin will definitely spice up what was looking to be a rather dreary affair in the Twin Cities. Still not likely to be what you’d call the Greatest Show on Earth. Even as a joke.
Maggie Thatcher Fan is right. And correct.
14. Don’t know the rights or wrongs about this, except to point out that by definition there is plenty on and off the record way up in Alaska that may or may not become relevant to the 2008 presidential campaign.
No worse than the Obama Drug/sex - Larry Sinclair dynamic. Indeed if the sex side turned out to be tru that is Obama’s black vote down the pan?
10. The irony is that Brown received plaudits early on for letting his ministers take the lead. It provided a welcome relief from the presidentialism of Blair. It’s only when things have gone wrong that Brown has ‘taken charge’ and this has only made things worse. As long as Gordon Brown is attached to any policy it will not get a fair hearing and the Government will suffer.
16.
After a delightful break despite the weather a return to PB. The Palin pick can be nicely unravelled by the clever Obama team (we saw how they took HRC apart) and indeed HRC will want to make sure that Palin never becomes the first female POTUS! Obama’s speech yesterday was very nicely constructed to whack MC Same and you can be sure they will have anticipated the Palin posture. The other factor is the skeletons in her and the GOP’s Alaskan cupboard. We are in for a corker of a fall which will make UK politics look decidely dull: unlike Glasgow East which I won oodles on I think Glenrothes is a foregone conclusion and GB will eventually be forced out. The US debates will be critical and I don’t think this Democratic team will be squeamish about flattening their opponents: its politics after all and not that important!
17, sorry to hear about your loss:(
12 - Benny have you seen the southpark episode about hate crimes? “Hate crime laws, a vicious hypocrisy”. In principle I actually agree with you on the issue: Equal before the law.
I’m trying to go through her views now. Perhaps you could let me know what you like about her.
I know she has a good record of opposing discrimination for gays in everything other than marriage.
P.S. I may, but in a round about may, agree with you on gay marriage. I think the state should have nothing to do with “marriage” at all. The state should issue people with civil partnerships, whether any other institution wants to term it marriage (churches etc) and what people want to call it (wife, partner etc) is their business.
18 - Thanks for pointing out my stupid mistake for all the world to mock! I am aware of Gov. Palin and have been for some time (as Seattle papers print fair amount about our former colony). For some reason just keep forgeting if her name is Sarah or Susan. Maybe getting confused with Women’s Suffrage anniversay = Susan B. Anthony!
17. My deepest sympathy Paul.
Sorry everyone, but this is hype, wait until thing die down in a week or two, mccain has sold a long term sensible option for a quick short boost.
Its just too much fantasy politics to think a vpilf is gonna get you into the white house!
20 - difference is between pure (or impure) rumor mill, and stuff that is well-documented and/or discussed in Alaska but not anywhere else. Which is significant difference that cuts both ways.
Needless to say this was written before the announcement, and before three of the best threads ever on PB.com - the political equivalent of the Madison!!
I was asleep, and couldn’t have changed my position anyway. I was effectively neutral on Palin, having laid it all off in a fit of skittishness. Was sorry to to win on Pawlenty, but this is a good choice.
Pawlenty would have been boring, Romney would have been straightforward to attack. This is a gutsy “let’s turn the game upside down for a minute” choice, and I think in the short term it will reap reward - I expect the GOP Convention to be quite gloomy by comparison, but this announcement gives it a bit of zing - the ‘I never warmed to McCain but now…’ people will be put front and centre.
This was the danger in picking Biden, who I was originally too harsh on - Obama comprimised on ‘chenge’ by picking a 36-year Senator. McCain is now able to comprimise on ‘Experience’ by picking a two year Governor without looking silly.
A moderate change candidate, like Schweitzer or Warner or Kaine, would have allowed McCain to go with Romney. Had Obama picked Bayh, I think Pawlenty would have got it. By picking Biden he has pushed McCain into taking a gutsy risk, which might just work.
More later…
On thread: - They won’t match Obama and they *shouldn’t* try. Yes, the huge rally will look sensational on the media, in the papers, and the commentariat will lap it up: but some American voters may be turned off it, I think; seeing it as a bit *too* arrogant and preening. A bit *too* superstar. A bit un-political.
I said Palin would be a great choice a few days back and I stand firmly behind that.
- She shamelessly played for the Hillary vote but that’s exactly what she needed to do. She won’t get loads of Hillary supporters switching due to the abortion issue, but she may deliver a few waverers.
- She is fresh-faced and new. She neutralises the Obama ‘freshness.’
- She doesn’t have much experience (like Obama) but *does* have executive experience (so the Dems shouldn’t try and attack her on this) and is the veep to an experienced candidate. Obama has an experienced man *as* his veep, but *he* is the main candidate - a potential problem.
- She has experience of energy issues, a very important issue at present.
- Her son is going to Iraq. Very emotive subject.
- She is a social conservative, shoring up the base, but is not *extreme* conservative. This, I feel, is the best of both worlds for McCain.
- She’s *real* - Middle American background, mumsy but efficient, rose from her local PTA to be governor of Alaska. Will chime very well with many female voters
What McCain-Palin need to do now is show that they’re the best people to govern in Washington and deliver *effective* and *cautious* change, dismissing Obama-Biden as showy, flashy and out-of-touch. To be fair, I think McCain has realised this and there were glimmers of this approach surfacing in his and Palin’s speeches today.
I seriously think they are in with a chance of winning this election, against the odds.
17.My deepest sympathy on your sad loss DC, I lost my father three months ago due to cancer and I know that my whole family have found it a comfort to spend time together.
17. Really sorry to hear your sad news Paul. Best wishes to you and your family from me and mine.
17. Paul you have my best wishes in this extremely difficult time for you.
30. She is fresh-faced and new. She neutralises the Obama ‘freshness.’
But his freshness was the main hitting point for republicans, they’ve lost that now.
29 — the question surely is whether Obama will rue snubbing Clinton.
‘25. The state should issue people with civil partnerships, whether any other institution wants to term it marriage (churches etc) and what people want to call it (wife, partner etc) is their business.’
I couldn’t put it better myself.
(I have attempted to put the quote in italics. *fingers crossed*)
If you watch Sky News/BBC News 24 note that McCain can’t keep his eyes off the Palin backside!
It’s quite funny….he looks once, twice and then again and again!!
If he goes down at least he will go happy!
35. — and the answer is; Yes.
37. He’s be happier if she went down
Apologies
He’d*
17 All my sympathy Double Carpet
My wife is a recoverer from breast cancer and I know what its all about. I will say a prayer for her.
15. Just because there’s discontent doesn’t mean there’s a plot - not yet anyway; I don’t think things are that organised.
If the report at [10] is accurate, the senior cabinet ministers will no doubt be further irritated by intrusion into their ministries (seemingly without agreement or co-ordination - whatever happened to cabinet government? It developed for good reasons). Even so, the practicalities are against any move against Brown at the moment. Ministers are all over the place and MPs are even more dispersed. Conferences are much more controlled than was once the case (and matter much less anyway), and if there is one aspect of politics that Brown is a master at, it’s fixing things behind the scenes. Expect little fuss at either the TUC or Labour conferences. The plotting will only start in earnest once parliament meets again.
34. The Republicans hitting point was that Obama was new to the Senate and was all of a sudden this superstar who was going to be the next President.
That still stands. The Palin choice does not defeat it: she is only the Vice Presidential nominee, and has executive experience, as well as ‘real world’, ordinary life experience that I think will chime with Americans.
She still stands behind a very experienced candidate. Obama stands behind no-one.
17. I would like to also pass on my sympathy, nobody should be taken at that young age.
‘USA – my “gut feel” is that it will be a narrow McCain victory in November with a close Electoral College result for the third election in a row. There’s plenty of value on Betfair for McCain but I think the polls could well be close for the next two months. As others have highlighted, the first debate in Oxford, Mississippi on 26th September is extremely important. Of the two VP picks, I feel that Palin is the more exciting choice, and my initial reaction to Biden was largely confirmed by unenthusiastic comments on PB and elsewhere.’
Do you believe the polls to move to McCain shortly then and suggest any betting on McCain to be done quickly?
40 - you support capital punishment?
Palin’s kids are named Track, Bristol, Willow, Piper and Trig. Is she from Hobbiton?
37. A Win/ Win whoever wins! Either Michelle & her Booty or Palin and hers!
48. 37 = 38!
31. Good, well argued post Matt1. I’m convinced!
17. Sympathies for your loss, DC, and thanks for your continued input and useful pointers to the months ahead.
46. Sorry I was being rude :p
I’m not a supporter and I believe that as Palin is pro-life then she is also against capital punishment. I wonder if this will play a major part as it would be rather hypocritical to be against abortion and for capital punishment.
Morus- you’re an idiot.With Palin on board McCain can’t lose & you know it.She’s feisty,attractive,female,intelligent,spoke well with good delivery & middle America will lap it up.
30- As you say, the RNC can’t out-Obama Obama. There’s no way for the GOP to get glitzier and more sensational than the DNC, but fortunately this plays into McCain’s hands: he’s just good ole John McCain with a “real” VP (upper lower class, as SSI says). He’s not Mr. Show Biz. This is one of his primary selling angles and he should make the most of it.
I’m a Palin fan but an Obama voter. And I am not alone.
Fundamentals still favor Democrats. Republican convention will be less of a bore with Palin than it certainly would have been without her. BUT unless the GOP goes stark raving mad and riots in the hall, the Twin Cities circus won’t have that much impact one way or another.
What WILL have an impact are the debates. And Palin’s choice ups the ante for the one VP debate. But the Real Deal will be Obama v McCain.
To win the Presidency, McCain must beat Obama in the debates. If they are a draw or Obama wins them, then the next President will Obama.
Other area where Palin could help (but not guaranteed) is with turnout among conserative Christians. A group that hasn’t been exactly enthused this year. Remains to be seen if she’s enough to please the grumpy old men who apparently control what’s left of the greater Christian Coalition.
44. “The Republicans hitting point was that Obama was new to the Senate and was all of a sudden this superstar who was going to be the next President.
That still stands. ”
well quite clearly it doesn’t, but you carry on making stuff up on the fly, all your republican spamming mates here seem to be doing quite well with this tactic
17- deepest sympathies for your loss.
56 - Of course it still stands.
The Democrats attacking Palin for her lack of experience highlights the fact that he has next to none.
She has executive experience. Governorship trumps a single term senator in experience terms. All he has done in his career in the senate is set up a presidential bid.
Another well written piece, Morus.
I agree with the penultimate paragraph which outlines some of the various reasons for which people o the right have been disappointed.
Given the tradition of small state/fiscal responsibility being a mantle of republicanism, I am very disappointed looking back at just how bloated the public sector in the US has become. With a democrat in the White house, this is not going to get any better.
I am probably one of two creationists on this side of the Atlantic, and it is also very disappointing to see how Carl Rove and co adeptly tapped into the sentiment of the religious right on issues of gay rights, compassionate conservatism and abortion, but ultimately very little has been done, as such, there is no impetus for those who were so energised in 2004 to turn out again.
On a lighter note, I must say Sarah Palin has just overtaken Mrs Biden in the beauty stakes. Mr McCain does seem to enjoy surrounding himself with lovely women who are 25yrs younger than himself.
I see that Ladbrokes have paid out already on Palin. Well done Shadsy.
With Betfair we will have to wait until next week’s convention has finally confirmed it.
56. Excuse me, is there any need to be so rude? I am merely making my point.
“Quite clearly it doesn’t” - I have demonstrated *what* the Republican attack was, and *why* I think it is still a valid attack for them to make.
Also, I am not a Republican, (economically, I agree with them. Socially, I largely don’t) nor am I spamming.
52 - no, she’s pro-capital punishment
55. I respectfully disagree on the fundamentals issue. The Republicans by picking Palin will fire there base plus McCain can reach outside the usual base. Obama it is true has brought new voters in but that is no good if they are in the wrong places! No point winning Calafornia by 20 points but losing Ohio, Pensilvannia etc!
This is why i say the Republicans are most likely to win - it presevers the old electoral coalition whilst mcCain makes it safe for some Democrats to split ticket between the Congressional elections and the presidency. Obama is not a winner - if he can only just get the democratic nomination, then he is in trouble from day one especially given his colour!
62 - benny see this: http://timesonline.typepad.com/uselections/2008/08/sarah-palin-in.html
17. My sympathies for your loss, double carpet.
62. Hmmmmm but she claims to be pro-life…. I suppose it’s political suicide to be a Republican and against capital punishment. I’m anti-capital punishment but in the UK that makes you more electable whereas in the US it will make you less.
58- You make another important point. If the Democrats want to make the argument that it is greater folly to elect a VP with only two years’ experience in a governor’s mansion than to elect a president with no executive experience and only four in higher office, they’re more foolish than I would have guessed.
54 - Do believe that the GOP would be wise in Twin Cities to make a production out of not been as slick as the Democrats. Now this is truely a risky gambit for a pack of control freaks! BUT it may be that they have the talent & wherewithall to pull of a totally scripted convention that appears slightly spontaneous. Problem is: zero drama, unless you include waiting to see if JMcC falls off the stage or something. Only real star turn will be Palin’s speech.
BTW, what are they going to do with Senator Ted Stevens? Or US Representative Don Young for that matter? Guess they’ll have to go with Sen. Lisa Murkowsky though she’s tainted goods herself.
NOTE that while Uncle Ted won his GOP primary by 2/1 the congressman (AK’s only one) is currently ahead of the Lt Gov by just a hair. Of course the Lt Gov MAY get a consolation prize. But is looking like Young is about to get the heave ho. As for Stevens, the jury is still out (almost literaly) but there is a reserve of support for him that is a tribute to his service to the state over many, many years.
58. “56 - Of course it still stands.
The Democrats attacking Palin for her lack of experience highlights the fact that he has next to none.”
christ almighty this is boring
the democrats don’t want experience to be discussed, picking palin means the republicans cannot mention it anymore, i can’t think of a simpler way to get that point across.
66 - so you don’t like her? and you know that pro-life doesn’t concern capital punishment. the vaste majority of pro-lifers are pro- the chair.
So, other than anti-abortion, what’s, in your opinion, is good about her?
64. Very interesting, I’m sure she’ll be more in demand than McCain at the moment for interviews.
67 - which is why I’m guessing they will likely cherry pick her Alaska record. Plus wait to see if she reveals any substantial gaps on the stump when it comes to national affairs foreign and domestic.
@66:
People of the right prefer killing the guilty and sparing the innocent.
People of the left prefer killing the innocent and sparing the guilty.
71 - I don’t know about that but there does appear to be more interest in her than in Biden. But then again, how important are running mates really?
31. Very good first paragraph - Obama is running unnecessary risks in looking a bit superstar, as you put it.
As for Palin, I’m far from convinced: she’s *really* inexperienced at this level. Obama might have only two years more experience in the Senate against Palin’s time as governor, but he’s proved his mettle in the primaries this year; Palin is joining the race a long way down the road and simply hasn’t been tested in the same way. It could come off and she could prove to be a massive asset for McCain - as you say, there are a lot of things going for her. It’s not so much that there are a lot of unanswered questions about her; more that the biggest has no obvious answer as yet - if something were to happen to 72-year old John McCain, is she up to being president?
Evening all,
Here is the wikipedia article on Sarah Palin. It gives more details on the investigation currently surrounding her.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin
73 - yes, that’s right (dripping sarcasm).
69. Of course they can mention it, and they will. Palin is the VP, not part of a two man presidential tag-team.
Thanks for all the comments, they are much appreciated.
45 - Obviously there will be many differing views on White House betting on this site. Certainly the markets are moving strongly to the GOP (in about 50 basis points from 3 to about 2.50 on the winning party market in the last 3 weeks) and FWIW I think now is a good time to be betting on McCain - I’m expecting that his price could well narrow further, especially if he gets a reasonable convention bounce.
I think the punters are biased towards Obama (this probably merits an article at some point), and the implied percentage for the GOP is still only 40% while I’d suggest that McCain has say a 45-48% of winning at the very least, if not 50%. So I think there’s at least a 5% gap between the market price and Mac’s real chances.
However, if say the polls stay similar til election day but McCain goes onto win, he may not go odds-on until results come in (eg NH called for McCain, PA too close to call, etc). So there might not be potential for laying off at a big margin compared to the current back price until 4th Nov itself.
70.
She hunts, she eats moose burgers
She’s anti-corruption and isn’t afraid to go against her party in doing so.
She’s opposed to sexuality discrimination.
She seems very down to earth.
52. It’s not hypocritical to be against the killing of (what you consider to be) an innocent child in the womb, but for the killing of the perpetrators of hideous murders, multiple murders, sexual murders, murders of children or families, etc etc. The situations are entirely different.
read Sullivan. this Palin lark may backfire terribly
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/email-from-alas.html
78. the main man is 72 years old though, and it has just occured to me that mccain has managed to make that a big issue now, not clever.
82. can you be taken seriously in american presidential politics if there are photos of you flying about as a beauty queen? it shouldn’t be an issue and lots of people will say it isn’t but…
80 - Benny
1. So what.
2. I’ll give you that - but then there is some scandal involving sacking floating around
3. And who isn’t
4. So what.
Come on, man, you can do better than that. You were gushing about her earlier. What’s so good?
69 - logical, but GOP will continue to go after Obama on every front including charging he has a stunt double for basketball shots.
Don’t think that being Governor, particular of a small state actually “trumps” US Senate experience.
Do think that after Bill Clinton voters, pundits and politicos less likely to write off small state contenders. Believe this reflects homogonization of US culture, standards over past half century. So that people no longer think that the Governor of Arkansas Alaska is too much of a small fry to make the national cut. Instead, there attitude is much more like that of a big state university football fan who hears that some small school out in the sticks has a hot prospect for team.
14. “at Denver both Obama and Biden came across as too smooth and tailored for my taste. A large part of Obama’s charm is his Lincolnesque gawkiness; and nobody every voted for Abe as best dressed”.
Strangely, I remember thinking ‘that’s a really nice suit’ while I was watching Obama’s speech in Denver.
72- Palin’s record must be even thinner than Obama’s, so it must be pretty tough to cherry pick! But at least she’s been serving as a governor, which usually requires greater moderation that serving in the Senate. That is, her record will likely come across as much more moderate because she has to make executive decisions for the entire state while all Obama had to do was cast votes reliably for the left and leave it at that. This also helps explain why Republicans routinely get elected governor in blue states and Democrats in red states; governors are required to be more moderate in governance that representatives in Washington, so such races are more about personalities and nuances than raw partisanship.
83 & 84 - yeah. I agree with you. This may be a bold move and my earlier points about american-ness still stand, but this is a stupid move. He could have had the similar effect without the joke nature.
From earlier thread:
“shadsy is laying 16/1 on Palin to win the 2012 election. I think that’s a great price and I’ve had on.”
stjohn - yep, the odds look fair enough, but are you really prepared to wait 4yrs 2mnths for your money?
21.”10. The irony is that Brown received plaudits early on for letting his ministers take the lead. It provided a welcome relief from the presidentialism of Blair.”
HenryG, not often I disagree with you, but on this point I do.
Despite Blair’s Presidential style of leadership, he never forgot that Golden rule of surrounding himself with strong politicians and seemed relaxed and confident in the knowledge that rather than threaten his position, they enhanced it. Despite all outward appearances over the last year, its exactly what Brown has not done. He has carried on as before at the Treasury, its why there was never any really strong contender to oppose Brown in a contest.
Even now, it seems incredible that a government that has been in power for 10 years could not produce at least one if not more viable opponents to Brown.
In years to come when the Labour party remembers Blair and Brown, who will be regarded as the nakedly ambitious politician who used the Labour party a vehicle to obtain the top job, and who will be fondly remembered as the loyal party man?
91 - quite right Chris
82. Well there’s not much there to read. Where’s his argument?
83. I don’t think picking a 72 year old president is in itself too worrying unless you genuinely believe the guy’s senile or about to pop his clogs. Certainly he can’t hide his age, so I think any apparent concession to it will make it look like he doubts himself. Therefore he has to play it like his age is no problem and hope voters agree.
53 - Um…’with Palin on the ticket, McCain *can’t* lose’?
I think you’d struggle to get a member of the RNC to agree with you on this one. She’s a great choice, politically, I’ve already said that - but the idea that she is *so fantastic* that the election is little more than a formality is, if not the stupidest thing ever said on this site, at least in the top five.
Big fundraiser is she? Solves that problem for the RNC? Electrifying speaker or attack dog? Really? Had many major issues beyond energy to deal with in Alaska - inner-city gun crime, industrial off-shoring and volatile growth? If she were the Governor of Georgia, or Texas, or North Carolina and had been in the job for 8 years, I would have been amazed that McCain even had to agonise.
Alaska is running evens, and the GOP will lose the Senate race by ten points, when Bush racked up high 60s in 2004. There is a minor scandal over the brother in law (more perceived than real), and she has only been in the (not particularly important, on the national scale) job a couple of years.
I think this is an inspired choice, and I think McCain could well win in November - I’ve said so all week, but it’s a bit rich to call me an idiot, and think that this is all over because Sarah Palin got picked. A little lie down in a dark room wouldn’t be a bad idea…help you get over the kool-aid.
69- Given the saltiness of the language, I wonder if this is really Kos himself!
95. sorry to disappoint but no
85. I’m not sure about gushing, I’d say more enthusiastic. I don’t see Biden appealing to the voters. Yes he brings experience to the table but when it was announced everyone thought “oh right” and people talked about something else.
I felt in her speech the main points were (excuse me if i mis-quote) that she appointed people from other parties to assist her in a previous governmental jobs and when she commended Hillary. Of course the Hillary mention was designed with one thing in mind but it seems now that the Republicans are the party that older females will go for.
Why is Palin a great choice? She’s exciting, fresh and everyone will be interested in finding out about her. Biden less so.
Regarding the current the current scandal, she has always denied it and I believe innocent until proven guilty. If she’s found guilty then it’ll be very hard for her but McCain seems to be willing to take the risk.
Is there a betting market on when the first satirist will compare John McCain to Daddy Warbucks in “Annie”?
Anyway I don’t think this choice will pull many Clintonista’s over bar the extremely bitter. She’s pro-abortion and I don’t get the impression that would be popular with the Clintonistas.
Certainly answers some of the questions on getting the religious right on board but her gay friends may shave some of the most homophobic of them.
How all this will pan out in November? I really haven’t a clue. It would be good for America’s image if they did elect a black president but that has to be backed up with substance. That alone won’t win it for him.
93 - that her selection is so brazenly not about “service”. Its a joke. Palin could have the potential to be big stuff but she’s currently seriously small fry. It’s like the new leader of Sheffield council becoming Deputy PM. It is just a bit bizarre.
94- Top five? Really? We’ve witnessed history here today, folks!
The Democrats are obviously really upset by the Palin decission. The democrats always seem to fall back on attacking the VP candidate because they cannot lay a glove on the the Republican presidential candidate.
Strange
Just makes me think that critisism upthread about her experience will boomerang back!
97. “Why is Palin a great choice? She’s exciting, fresh and everyone will be interested in finding out about her. ”
what is there to find out about her though, that she was a beauty queen? that she has a rich husband? mccain will get a short term bounce from what you say but in the long run it means nothing
84 - believe you are barking up the wrong tree. You are mistaking preconceptions of UK totty with US cheesecake. Plus keep in mind Palin is and has always been a religious conservative. But one determined to prove you can love Jaysus and have fun at the same time. Which she is surely doing today!
90 But then again, it could help fund a nice holiday - you put down your £100 now and collect £1700 in 2012, or you lose and enjoy a few pleasant summer evenings instead, munching Spam sandwiches and drinking cheap plonk on the back lawn.
98. If only McCain was black..
97 - she’s fresh and exciting. Is that really sufficient to be VP? Maybe in 2012. After 4 more years as a governor she may even have been an outside bet for GOP nominee in 2012. But VP, now, really? It just stinks.
I don’t think VPs really add much to a ticket but they can damage one. She, especially with McCain’s age, could do just that.
84- We’re in the era of Governor Tuh Muh Nay Tuh. Once upon a time, there was that B-movie actor Reagan, too. Not a problem any more, if it ever was…
101 spincycle is nonpartisan. just like laundramat washing machine don’t care who puts a quarter in the slot.
I’m a Democrat and I’m not upset McCain picked Palin. Not because I think she’s such a liablity. But because I like the cut of her jib.
107. Well the VP pick could have been worse - Ron Jemermy for instance!
she’s fresh and exciting. Is that really sufficient to be VP?
I half agree with you and half disagree.
A) It is sufficient, it’s only a VP. She’s the icing on the Republican cake. John McCain is the sponge and substance whereas she is the icing and decorations used to make it more appealing and sweet to the voter.
B) She will play a bigger role than a normal VP, you can’t discount McCain’s age.
108. Have you ever split-ticket voted?
99 - If a pound’s a pound the world around, then a Governor is a Governor is a Governor.
Now Mayor of Wasilla = Sheffield councilor. But she’s Governor of a sovereign state. That ain’t chopped liver.
99. If that’s your argument, fair enough; Sullivan didn’t deem it necessary to bless us with his own.
The way I see it, Obama used his pick to try to buttress his credentials - I’m not experienced,but this guy is. The danger is, this looks like he’s accepting others’ criticisms.
However, Biden isn’t going to be President, and nor is Palin. Palin represents things, and she represents the promise of a future woman president after 8 years. The Biden pick says ‘I need this guy to help me govern, or at least I worry that some of you think I do’, the McCain pick says ‘I like this woman and I think she’s a good sort’.
97. Biden isn’t on the ticket to directly appeal to the voters; Obama’s there to do that. Apart from supporting the electoral maths, Biden provides necessary reassurance ‘in case’. Palin can’t yet say the same. Uniquely of the four names for president or vice-president, she has neither a lengthy amount of experience in senior level politics nor a track record of coming through the searching demands of a primary campaign (especially one as long and tough as the Democrats’ was this year).
111 - Yes
110 B. Don’t bet on that. Believe that if McCain is President, he will keep the reigns tight in his own hands. A Vice President Palin would have to pay her dues as a ribbon cutter; and any hint of wanting more McC would cut her off at the knees.
116. Sorry I must not have made myself clean, I meant if he has to step down due to ill health or anything worse than that. She may find herself in the top job before she could have ever though of doing so.
110 -
Benny, “only VP”. that’s second in line to the throne. that’s worth a warm pitcher of ****
She’ll be especially active? Like Cheney? If McCain was going to pick someone active, not ornamental, then somebody with a bit more experience and who crucially had worked with McCain before would have been sensible.
Unless she’s really good (Jindal/Obama) good and unless the Dems don’t bugger it up, she should get slaughtered.
117 - an extra argument against her
118. We will wait and see. As much as I’ve defended her the past hour I would still (just) prefer to see Obama in the White House.
117- Then take a bath!
114. Biden provides necessary reassurance ‘in case’.
Sorry you are wrong on this like you were about Russia not being a threat last year! Obama is just as inexperienced as Palin yet the Democrats have chosen Obama to be the Presidential candidate instead of Biden, who critised Obama for his lack of experience along with Bill & HRC.
Remember Bush, had Cheney to add balas to his ticket and Bush had been a govorner for a large state for 6 years before 2000! McCain is the experience in this years ticket - like in 1988 with Bushes dad, the Dems attack on the Republican VP are totally self-defeating whilst McCain looks from above the fray! Maybe 1988 again! Indeed Obama is in a less advantageous position than under Dukakis as carcus had a 15% poll lead in 1988!
117 - personally think McCain is going to outlive most of those inquiring after his health. Won’t start worrying until his mama keels over.
123- Funny!
123. They did a study into McCain’s health and said they expect him to live another 12 - 14 years.
94-Events will prove otherwise-i still think you underestimate her-& as for your sarcasm-go hibernate.
125- Who the #@!%$#! is “They”?
118 There’s no doubt that Obama’s speech last night was a real tour de force last. One aspect that did surprise me was his piece relating to Martin Luther King. Perhaps it was partly my imagination, but he seemed to almost adopt MLK’s intonation in his voice, thereby emphasising his colour. I’m not sure why he did this and even less sure whether it was a good idea.
121. Ugh the dreaded typo. I’m just about to take a shower so maybe that was on my mind (apologies to everyone for that image)
123. At 20, I hope not!
126- Do you know who you’re talking to? According to some of the most informed contributors to this blog, Morus was only just passed over as McCain’s VP pick. It is rumored that it was only his recent embarrassing flirtation with the Democratic Party that cost him the slot.
122 Saying Biden is inexperienced means that you’ve not been paying attention. Biden is very experienced in foreign policy and has been a key player for years.
Biden’s best, most confident moment at the Denver convention, was his strong statement against Russian aggression and McCain’s half-baked, knee-jerk neo-Cold War response.
125. I think we did a simple actuarial study and came up with same figure. However, McCain isn’t “Mr.Average 72 year-old.” He’s a three time melanoma patient for starters…
132 - And sadly, things happen. Once in office, the VP automatically takes over if the President becomes unavailable for any reason, I believe. Between now and the Electoral College in December, if a candidate has to retire from the race for any reason (scandal, successful legal challenge, ill-health, something worse), then I believe it would effectively come down to the party choosing an alternative, who could be anyone suitably qualified - is that right? Presumably Hillary on the Democrat side; I don’t know who it would be on the Republican side.
126. Are you the former Gloucester bowler whose only claim to fame was to get Viv Richards out in his last innings?
The whole “Palin is too inexperienced” argument is even trickier for the Dems than first appears. Not only does this inevitably call attention to Obama’s inexperience as well, but it requires a two-step: 1) McCain is really old and may die soon and 2) Palin is too inexperienced to immediately step in to serve. Not only is step 2 a dangerous argument but also step 1, since it requires the Dems to get into grim prognostication of impending death. Both steps could turn off more voters than not for those making the arguments.
135. but thats the whole point, the democrats don’t want people to talk about obamas inexperience ! so the fact that the republicans is great for them ! not diffcult to understand !
17 Sorry to hear your sad news Paul, my thoughts are with you.
Many thanks for taking the trouble to post your summary of forthcoming political events acoss the Globe.
Like many here, I’m very much looking to reading your valued contributions when you feel ready to return.
122. As it happens, I tend to agree that unless Obama gets down to detail, his lack of experience could start to tell against him. I have been backing McCain for a while, though I expect to lay a good deal of it off at an opportune moment. Even so, whether he does it or not, one of Biden’s principal jobs is to provide reassurance that there’s strength in depth in the White House - that must surely have been a key reason as to why he was picked.
Anyway, even if Obama were as inexperienced as Palin (and he’s not), what matters is that he came through a very testing set of primaries earlier this year. That of itself proves a lot about his ability. Palin hasn’t been similarly tested and while it’s obviously true that they’re running for different offices, she’s still a potentially weak link.
130-Sorry Boss I did’nt realise.
134-No-I’m as white as the ace of spades.
126 - You might be right! I think you’re overestimating her. I don’t think either party has this locked up if they put Eisenhower on the ticket, but there we go.
17 Paul. Very sorry to her of your recent loss. My sympathies to you and your family.
Hmm corruption within the VP regarding treatment of a sibling…Old president…female VP…. does anyone watch Prison Break?
135. Isn’t that always a given when discussing the merits of VP candidates? It’s not intrinsic to the debate about Palin as such, except that McCain would be the oldest person ever to be first elected were he to win in November.