So has McCain chosen the former Alaskan beauty queen?
August 29th, 2008
The money pours onto to the woman who is now Governor
We don’t know anything yet for certain but in the past hour all the money has been going on to Sarah Palin - the woman described by her supporters as “America’s Margaret Thatcher” and “The Iron Lady” - as the Republican party V-P nominee. The above is from her supporter’s website.
The 44 year old who was elected Alaska’s governor only two years ago certainly seems an amazing choice - if that is indeed what has happened.
Wikipedia describes her background like this: A mother of five..“She hunts, eats moose burgers, ice fishes, rides snowmobiles, and owns a float plane. Palin holds a lifetime membership with the National Rifle Association. She admits that she used marijuana when it was legal in Alaska, but says that she did not like it.”
If it has gone to Palin it will be a great result for me. I became convinced that McCain would choose a woman from the moment Obama chose a man. I’ve bet on all the women possibles and will make enough on Palin at an average of 17/1 to more than cover all my other bets in both parties’ nominee market and still be about £650 in profit.
The news is due at about 5pm UK time.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
All bets are OFF!
She arrived in Ohio last night on a Gulf Stream jet with her two teenage sons, it looks like it’s her!
The announcement is at 6 UK Mike - noon Central.
Oops, my bad - it’s in Ohio not Minneapolis. Doh!
Thought you’d decided not to bet on VP stakes any more, Mike? But she sounds an interesting choice, and McCain badly needs fresh interest right now.
Well, this would be sensational. Of course, this undermines the message that Obama is too inexperienced to serve as president, but not to an excessive degree (after all, Obama is the presidential nominee while Palin would be the VP nominee). All in all, I think this is a great move by a McCain campaign that has to take a risk to win. This move could pay dividends for the GOP not just in this election but in elections to come.
Romney is the only choice that can deliver the Whitehouse and keep those secular progressives from gaining control.
If he’s picked that woman we might as well call the election now for the lunatic liberals.
Risky…though I read up on her a few months back and found myself very impressed.
The easy knock on her - lack of experience - can’t really be used by the Dems, not with Obama at the head of their ticket.
Latest Scottish sub-sample; usual caveats apply. The findings are pretty much in line with all other recent full Scottish polls and sub-samples.
YouGov/Daily Telegraph
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Fieldwork: 26-27 August 2008
Sample size: 248
(% change from UK GE 2005)
SNP 40% (+22%)
Lab 28% (-11%)
Con 18% (+2%)
LD 12% (-11%)
Grn 2% (+1%)
Electoral Calculus - Scottish Westminster seat calculator:
SNP 42 seats (+36 seats)
Lab 8 seats (-32 seats)
LD 5 seats (-6 seats)
Con 3 seats (+2 seats)
Speaker 1 seat (n/c)
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/08082%20DTwebsite.pdf
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html
I’m worried for Morus. Word has it that Oprah Winfrey cried her eyelashes off last night at the acceptance speech. I hope all of Morus’ parts are still intact, given his dangerous proximity to the blast zone of the emotional impact!
Stuart - Why do you do % change from UK GE all the time? Normally polls are explained as % change from last poll - given we all already know there’s been a change since last GE to continually use that as your comparison seems pure spin.
Is the Palin frenzy on Intrade due to Fox? See:
http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/29/who-was-on-this-flight/
Still no really convincing news it will be Palin!
7 I agree with your line of thinking (as you know). Has Condi said ‘definitely not’ yet please ?
Certainly Palin (and Condi) offer the prospect of a good trading position for the next couple of (possibly very silly) hours.
7 - that’s staggering. It’d strip Labour of its majority just on its own.
I’m feeling lazy. Any of our resident statos care to have a stab at the MOE on that sample size?
Hope this is true Mike. There was some discussion on here about palin in the early hours, when most were thinking it was Pawlenty. I got £2 on her last night, around 10.30pm, with Betfair at 50. A modest bet, but certainly worth a shot at that price - and it would more than cover my VP losses where I had more or less all the favourites, except Biden!
[9] - One problem is that the Scottish sub-samples are small enough that their margin of error is greater than the normal +/-3% That would make them even more noisy than the UK opinion polls, so comparing them chronologically as you suggest would show up large spurious movements down to sampling alone.
I can’t bring myself to believe it will be Palin - it would completely undermine what will surely be the main thrust of McCain’s campaign, which is that Obama is unready to govern. With a 72 year old McCain (happy birthday John), surely he needs a reassuring and experiened Veep ready to serve.
12 - I’d guess an MOE of around 5%, but much depends on whether the Scotland sample was properly balanced in its own right rather than being part of a pan-UK quota sample.
14 - True, but that is the “usual caveats” to Scottish sub-sections.
Karl ‘The Architect’ Rove is talking as if he knows it’s Palin. As is everyone on Fox News this morning.
Romney OUT
Pawlenty OUT
Huckabee OUT
It’s over.
Has Ridge been ruled out yet? Pawlenty and Romney (and Huckabee) are out so Palin or Ridge?
Palin was cited on Fox as a protential VP because “she brought to full term a Down’s syndrome baby which is ticking all the right boxes for the pro life lobby, a substantial GOP reserve of votes”
One has to hand it to you Mike - most others’ VP tips on here simply Palin to insignificance.
I’ll get me coat.
Ridge hasn’t been ruled out.
[12] - I’m lazy too, so I wiki’d it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error
Answer: > 5%
It could yet be a long shot with the favourites progressively being ruled out.
Would be simultaneously thrilled and gutted if it’s Palin - thrilled because I spotted her a couple of years ago and reckoned she might be on the ticket; gutted, because I didn’t trust my instinct and put money on it!
19- With Pawlenty, Romney, and even McCain’s pal Joe out of the mix, it will inevitably be someone who would have been a big surprise only a day ago. I guess it won’t be Ridge based on reassurances to the GOP that it would be a “traditional” GOP choice (i.e., not pro-choice). Kay Bailey Hutchison said it’s not her. Does it have to be Palin then? If not, then it must be someone from left field (or right field, however you want to look at it!).
Mike I agree with your consistent theme that it is time for women to rise to the top in politics.
The fact that the Dems and the GOP have had one woman VP nominee, ever, is astonishing given the electoral boost they could give.
Palin is a great result for me although I don’t think it’s a done deal yet. Her price drop is based on the flight from Alaska to Ohio, information which has been around all morning.
It’s one thing having the major networks saying who it’s not, but if it was a done deal surely they’d want to be first with this absolutely sensational news.
21. I’ll fetch it for you.
9. Philip Thompson
As Timothy indicates, sub-samples are just too unreliable to compare from week to week. Or rather, I ought to say: they ought to be too unstable/unreliable (due to being unweighted etc), but in actual fact the Scottish sub-samples have been remarkably stable for a couple of years now. I know not why…
What says Romney is out of the picture?
I had thought about repeating my “only a heartbeat away” bet on Palin to become the next POTUS, but she doesn’t even feature on Betfair’s seemingly endless list.
Third from bottom PfP
29 The betting market!
[23] - Or 6.2% using the equation provided by wiki
32. The betting market also said Pawlenty was a certainty.
16. Fangsy
Nope: the sub-samples are not properly weighted. Only the whole sample is duly weighted.
Fox says Romney is out, Chrisco @ 29. foxnews.com
34- Drudge also says Romney is out.
Fox say Palin is still in Alaska!!!
MSNBC saying Ridge is the one.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 50.% .. Others 5%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 176 .. Obama 260 .. Toss Up 102
Changes Since Last Projection - Nevada moves from Toss Up McCain to Toss Up Obama. New Mexico moves from Toss Up Obama to Likely Obama.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 227 .. Obama 311
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
38. ABC saying the same: Palin in Alaska.
Whilst the Scottish sub-samples are indeed tiny, they do seem to show a surprising degree of consistency - hardly “all over the place”, are they?
Prince Harry is lobbying to be sent back to the combat zones of Afghanistan:
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/royals/article1621770.ece
You just don’t see patriotism and bravery like this much anymore. God bless Prince Harry.
33. +/- 7% seems reasonable.
So the SNP are highly likely (95%?) to be within 33% - 47%.
Lab 21% - 35%
Con 11% - 25%
LD 5% - 19%
I’m perfectly comfortable with those ranges. They feel intuitively about right at the moment. I’d guess that the SNP were actually nearer the mid 30’s, and the Tories in the low 20’s, but I think that the Lib-Lab numbers (12% and 28%) are about right.
41- Then who the heck is it?!?!?!?!?!
Where’s Morus ???? Dayton or Denver ????
PB demands to know !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Tom Ridge looks like the most viable choice now given Pawlenty and Romney are both out.
39- If true, a real shocker. Ridge is not a “traditional” GOP choice, contrary to the McCain campaign’s reassurances yesterday. The pro-lifers won’t be happy about this one, but Ridge is otherwise a formidable candidate with wide-based appeal.
Woe is us, if ovenchips has indeed picked Palin. She would be our worst result, due to a shrewdy having backed her at all rates down from 33/1 in April.
Come on Tom Ridge!
Palin will make McCain look just so damn OLD - it will be like - “Oh, here’s the former beauty queen - and she’s brought along grandpa from the Simpsons….”
The reason there is no firm lead in the betting markets is that no-one knows who he is going to choose. For good reason. He is going to get all the candidates together in the Nutter Building and do a live televised selection:
“One potato, two potato, three potato, four….”
46. ABC hasn’t yet ruled out Morus! Does anyone know whether CNN has commented?
or the Dan Quayle tribute edition:
““One potatoe, two potatoe, three potatoe, four….”
52- Let’s hope it’s not Quayle!
This really is a crazy market which has been swung hither and thither on some supurious rumours.
Imagine the disappointment when he goes for Romney now!
53 - That would be a real hot potatoe.
re 16 surely the Scottish sub sample would have to be balanced in its own right as the choices of the voters there are completely different from the rest of the UK.
38, Does it, ABC does - http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/mccain-vp-conte.html
but people still saying she is in Ohio.
55- Does anybody know where Dan Quayle is this morning? Oh no!
Romney is definitely out of the picture. It will not be him.
Nothing from CNN as far as I can see. The market is all over the place..
Panic on the streets of London , Panic on the streets of Betfair
The Clinton News Network is always going to be last to report accurately on these stories.
60 Hang the VP, hang the VP…..
58 - I served with Dan Quayle. I knew Dan Quayle. Dan Quayle was a friend of mine. And Morus, you’re no Dan Quayle.
The ABC report placing her in Alaska is weak, on closer research.
It’s just a spokesman saying - I precis - “the Governor will be at the state fair in Anchorage today”.
Pawlenty and Palin both going to their state fairs. Bet they are both in Dayton really.
Just seen the Barack Obama Convention speech on BBC Parliament. It’s very,very good.
He may well have put himself back in pole position. I was certainly dithering with his chances at the start of the week.
62 Could life ever be sane again…?
Whats this? - http://www.mccainpalin.com
63- Ouch!
Pawlenty definitely out.
66 - After a sleep and a bit of reflection I’m less impressed than I was on first viewing. I keep coming back to the content and the policies smacked of pie-in-the-sky to a large extent.
Anyone want a cheeky tenner that the US still needs middle-east oil in a decade?
67 It says nothing to me about my life….
65- The McCain campaign has certainly done a masterful job of hiding the ball until the last minute. If nobody here can figure out what’s happening now only a couple hours before the official unveiling, that’s an accomplishment.
Who cares whether she becomes VP? I’m off to Alaska with my mandolin and team of troubadors to loiter under her balcony.
The Obama campaign has made the best it can from this convention and I was appalled to see the gutless and directionless Veltroni (defeated Italian left leader who didn’t have the guts to fall on his own sword in true Roman fashion) broadcasting from the Convention on Italian TV. I’m afraid that despite the merits of Obama all the failed European politicians of the recent past will draw great comfort from an eventual Obama victory and hang around to plague us for many years to come.
Palin’s and indeed the possibility of Condi’s candidature just shows that the contest is still of great interest and could go either way and especially since the GOP hates losing whilst the Dems make a great hobby of shooting themselves in the foot…..
Is it Lieberman after all?
68: It’s a site advertising free Powerpoint templates.
Has anyone ever heard Palin on the stump?
Cracks in the wall starting to appear: McCain sources tell Pawlenty he is not the pick reports CNN
Ambinder has another plane:
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/a_second_plane_even_more_inter.php
I’d say McCain’s got his supporters flying their private planes in and out of Ohio while he makes a killing on Betfair…
63- If the DNC is any guide, Morus does have Churchillian drinking prowess. I think there may be big ticket potential for him yet…
72. Is there a candidate called Smith?
Could someone post the latest Betfair GOP Veep prices. Thanks.
It must be one of Ridge, Palin (if not in Alaska) or Leiberman.
77 - No, but you hum it and I’ll play it.
What about Carly F? She’s been in Denver all week as spokesperson for the McCain campaign.
77. Has Rupert endorsed Barack yet?
Isn’t Palin under state investigation for some dodgy firing of her brother in law?
44. It’s +/-6.1% for the SNP, +/-5.6% for Labour, +/-4.8% for the Tories and +/-4% for the LibDems…
To back it’s Romney 6.0 Ridge 3.55 Liebermann 6.2 Palin 1.71
86 - There is a story rumbling on but presumably, if it is her, the McCain vetting team has concluded it is all smoke and no fire - an ex-brother-in-law with a grudge; which may well be correct. I guess nobody who’s anyone in America doesn’t have fewer than five pending lawsuits against them.
Hearing reports that Ridge has not even been vetted for the job. So he’s out.
Looks like we’re down to just Joe Lieberman or Sarah Palin. And in that case I hope Palin gets it.
85 - No idea. I know we’re covering Obama more than McCain but Baker is slating him in the Times. I guess NGN in Wapping is free to go as they see fit at the moment?
But Obama has the celeb feel so he’s more newsworthy to a Sun reader at the mo. I wouldn’t read anything into it.
Usual caveats, I know nothing, just a lowly staffer etc.
84 Go on Mike, do it, this will give you a full house!
The lay prices are Romney 1000 Ridge 9 Lieberman 44 Palin 2.18
89 - Yeah but he doesn’t want an Eagleton style situation.
Not sure why anyone would be backing Romney at this point at 6s.
If Fox says he’s out, his spokesman comes on Fox and says he’s out, you can be pretty certain Romney is out.
Gallup indicates that Obama regains support among conservative Democrats as the convention progresses :
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109915/Obama-Regains-Support-Conservative-Democrats.aspx
Leibermen now 3.something
Chaos. Odds-against the field again.
Pawlenty out to 33/1, is he definitely out of it?
Why doesn’t Betfair promote Palin, as favourite, up their list?
Latest Rasmussen Tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 49%
Note - Yesterday M-47/O-47
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
97: Leibermen now 3.something
That’s me laying off 24, do feel free to take it
Palin’s up to 2.02 and I’m all green at last. Jolly good.
This is the stuff of legends from a betting perspective
95. Culture Warrior @ 39 you say MSNBC say Ridge is the one. I looked on their webpage and they say he’s in the running but don’t name him as the winner. Now you say he hasn’t been vetted. Do you have a source for either of these remarks?
Further link to Rasmussen tracking poll :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
I love Pawlenty’s comment - I plan to be at the State Fair this morning so You can draw your own conclusions -
On our local news last night there were all kinds of rumors about Pawlenty and cars coming and going from the governor’s mansion -
But I bet he will have a better time at the Minnesota State Fair than Dayton Ohio - everyone loves the State Fair,
And also hear rumors that Palin is also going to the State Fair,
Wonder if the rest of them have a visit to the State Fair planned today - is there secretly a State Fair in Dayton, Ohio today
Anyone not all green by 6pm is either insane or Mitt Romney’s mum
106- It will be pretty embarrassing for McCain if he’s standing on that stage in Dayton and nobody shows up to stand behind him!
I think Pawlenty would have been a great choice just for the hometown aspect at the convention!
I’m reporting what I’m hearing from the news networks in the US. Fox News/MSNBC/CNN. That’s where the news will be broken first. (Fox News is where I’m paying closest attention)
CNN headline on t.v. = Sources point to Palin as McCain’s running mate: CNN has not confirmed
Libermann - such an asset to Al Gore in 2000. Not.
“woman” and “two teenagers” hustled off plane from Alaska…
http://www.kxrm.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=182714
keep up to date with the rumour mill here..
http://news.google.co.uk/news?um=1&tab=wn&hl=en&scoring=n&q=sarah+palin&btnG=Search+News
Its official - http://www.cnbc.com/
YES!
Please, be it Palin!
She’s the only one I backed on the Republican side ! —
and I did laid Romney quite heavily in the last few days…
114. SWEET !
This from the local Dayton paper, for those interested in the “is Palin really in Dayton?” question.
A Gulfstream IV jet owned by a firm in Kirkland, Wash., landed at Hook Field Municipal Airport late Thursday night is believed to have had Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin on board as a passenger.
National media outlets have identified the first-term Alaska governor, the first woman elected to the position, as a possible vice presidential candidate for Arizona Sen. John McCain, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee.
According to the flight plan for the plane, the flight took six hours from Anchorage, Ala.
McCain is in Dayton today and is expected to announce his running mate sometime later today at the Nutter Center at Wright State University.
According to Rich Bevis of B&B Aero, the fixed-based operator at Hook Field, the jet, a Gulfstream IV which has the flight range to fly from Alaska to Europe, landed at about 10:15 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 28.
Bevis said the woman “was a real close match to Palin” and added that the flight crew that’s based in the Seattle area was told to fly to Anchorage to pick up their party and fly to Middletown.
Bevis said the jet had a woman, two teenagers and two men on board and that a couple of white vans met the plane, gathered their gear and took the party to an undisclosed location.
Looks like Palin - offered at 1.01 on Betfair…
“…has learned” doesn’t sound official.
113 - “Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty says you can stop looking his way. He says he’s going to the Minnesota state fair Friday, and calls it “a fair assumption” that he will not be McCain’s running mate”
Gov Pawlenty is a master of the pun even in testing times and for that reason alone should be chosen.
Cold porridge for shadsy ..
119 It could be ‘Its Dewey’ moment, but it all points to Michael Palin now.
Palin still at 1.19 - take the free cash.
I think this was a bit of a masterstroke by McCain.
He’s not let Obama bask in adulation for a week and has moved the story back to him within hours of Pbama’s speech. If he makes a bold choice like Palin or Ridge he could well get some momentum to take into the convention, IF the GOP get behind his choice fully. With Palin, they should.
50/1 on the next president being female looking value
IT’S DEWEY
My opinion is that this bold posthumous pick is wise as it makes McCain look quite young by comparison with the deceased yet experienced VP pick.
“Political Wire” reporting GQR focus group results on Obama’s speech :
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/08/29/speech_appealed_to_swing_voters.html
The Jocks are not going to be a happy bunch.
Scottish Power gas prices rise 34%
http://tinyurl.com/5o949r
I thought Romney could take Michigan for the GOP. Palin will help grab some angry Clinton women, but what else?
Stuck up in Alaska, its a bit of a quirky pick.
Others having problem with Intrade site? Bad timing!
When I get round to revising my book on political betting I’m going to include this thread. It is a complete classic.
Bah!
132 Humbug !!
124- Of course, if Hurricane Gustav rips through New Orleans early next week, it could be the most disastrous GOP Convention ever.
Palin drifts to 1.2 - lol
134 - To be fair to McCain he doesn’t claim to be able to change the weather and it would be an act of Oba I mean God.
130 - No. Palin is ultra-hot favourite (80). Ridge came in to 20 but has drifted to 11. Lieberman and Romney around 5, Pawlenty nowhere.
129 - Maybe the veep logic is different this time.
AP: Two GOP strategists close to the McCain campaign said all indications pointed to Palin, 44, a self-styled “hockey mom” and political reformer. The strategists spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized by the McCain camp to discuss the matter. There was no confirmation from McCain or his advisers.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g8-DEMtAE9q4i4ySQ0eV_qZefmRQD92RVUMG1
Jan,
Intrade is working very fine for me — I’m using the old version, however.
136- The Democrats will try their best next week, though, to shame the GOP about not cancelling or postponing their convention when ’so many are suffering from the effects of Hurricane Gustav,’ etc., etc. This may or may not resonate at all with voters, but can have the side effects of disorientating the GOP in figuring out how best to respond in the middle of their highly scripted convention and also changing the subject to something the GOP doesn’t want to be talking about.
What Russia/Georgia is to the Obama campaign, devastating hurricanes are to the McCain campaign.
129. Well, assuming it is Palin, we can definitely give up any thoughts of the Democrats winning Alaska this time around. (Which was always pretty unlikely anyway…)
I understand the concerns that Palin might highlight McCain’s age, but despite that she seems like the best choice to me. What could the Democrats attack her on - inexperience?!
141 - I am not disagreeing with you but what I am suggesting is that as far as he can, so far McCain is playing a blinder. He has no right to be in the game in a year when the stars are all aligned for the Dems.
To win the presidency he has to throw a perfect game from now on . Today he has started well.
138- VP’s are rarely chosen to win this state or that state anyway. The last choice that was clearly designed to win a state was Kennedy’s choice of LBJ. How often are elections decided by a single state anyway (it happens, but is rare). Better to pick someone the presidential candidate feels comfortable with, doesn’t get in the way of their message, and brings positive energy to their campaign.
144 - The more I look at her
the more I think she’s a great pick.
145. The Democrats no doubt have several more own goals to score as well.
145- Agreed.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-sarah-palin-vice-president-john-mccain,0,4320091.story
If Louisiana, under new Governor Bobby Jindal (R), copes well with Hurricane Gustav however, doesn’t it show the GOP in a more positive light?
Katrina showcased an incompetent Mayor, Governor and federal administration. What’s changed (politically) since? The occupant of the Governor’s mansion in Baton Rouge.
don’t understand why you are all raving about palin. none of you know anything about her, could be a good pick, could be a bad pick, but its not a gamechanger which you all lambasted obama over not choosing.
144 But with Alaska having only 3 electoral college votes (the smallest number possible) that he was going to win anyway (or he would alredy have lost the election), Palin is a pretty poor pick from that perspective.
144 - It’s not that Democrats would attack her on inexperience, it’s that the Republicans would surrender much of their ability to attack Obama for inexperience. That strikes me as the big problem.
Biden might not be the most thrilling of figures but does anyone doubt he could step up to the plate if the worst happened or that he would seriously assist Obama in the business of governing? Palin looks like Debbie McGee to McCain’s Paul Daniels - a bit of glamour but has she got any tricks of her own up her sleeve?
CNBC says it’s Palin:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26454655
http://peterwelcheastern.blogspot.com/2008/08/obama-gets-bounce-on-rasmussen-too.html
Reiterating what I said after Obama picked Biden- Sarah Palin’s biggest advantage would be the head-to-head debates against Biden. He’s a Washington insider, she’s a reforming, no nonsense Governor. In a debate, he’s not going to be able to attack her without coming off as either caddish, or condescending.
Biden-Palin will be the most intriguing VP debate since Bentsen-Quayle.
152. I’m not sure that’s fair. Plenty of people have been talking about her for a while. Hats off to Bill Kristol who was one of the pundits tipping her all summer.
http://peterwelcheastern.blogspot.com/2008/08/obama-gets-bounce-on-rasmussen-too.html
(seems to have been stuck in the spam trap)
151- You could be right in the long run, but the GOP has to cope with the hurricane happening right during their convention. So, not knowing how bad it will or won’t be, they have to fret over whether their “celebration” might look terrible at a time when people could be enduring devastation (or not, depending on the course of the hurricane). This is a very unpleasant sideshow to have to be dealing with.
156 - I’m looking forward to it already. Assuming the hurricane doesn’t hit New Orleans next week and there is a bounce for McCain, the debates will be fascinating.
154 - exactly right. This is going to make the VP debate unmissable.
Expect the question of “experience” to disappear very quickly from the GOP’s radar from here on in. Especially as that VP debate could end up pretty embarrassing for Palin at the hands of Joe Biden if they keep plugging away at that question…
Palin matched at 1.10
This morning the Today Show is gushing over Palin. Also saying that whatever his pick, McCain has scored over Obama by making the GOP VP choice the top story this AM beating out Obama’s acceptance speech.
Personally have “inside” information (via rumblings of my gut) that Gov. Palin is NOT McC’s pick.
Instead, he’s selected someone who has significant government experience and whose loyalty to what passes for GOP conservatism these days is unquestionable: SCOOTER LIBBY.
154 “Palin looks like Debbie McGee to McCain’s Paul Daniels - a bit of glamour but has she got any tricks of her own up her sleeve?” Made me laugh…
From NRO
McCain-Palin? [Mark R. Levin]
Few have been more critical of Sen. McCain than I, both here and on my radio show. And I have long said on my radio show that his selection of a running-mate will be key in determining my enthusiasm for his candidacy. If McCain has, in fact, chosen Gov. Palin, then count me in with both feet. It would be a terrific choice.
Mac rocks!
So how many PBers lost significant coin on the Pawlenty rumor mill?
161 - AndrewG’s right that it presents challenges for Biden in debate too though. He is a bit of an old windbag (like his Welsh hero) and the comparison isn’t great. Hopefully he will take advice, keep it friendly and play a straight bat.
But the casual tossing away of the “safe pair of hands” card does rather surprise me.
I’m shocked by this. McCain is an old man who may not last even one full term. Palin will not reassure those voters that the country will be in safe hands should something happen to the president.
Big mistake by McCain I think. If there is even the slightest doubt about his health during the rest of the campaign then he has no chance.
Palin is good for me from a betting perpective so I’m happy. My losses on Biden are relativly insignificant compared to my profit on the GOP race. Hurrah!
166. A bit - but laying Romney sub 2s repaid multiple times over
I don’t anybody here bet a lot on Pawlenty.
I read about laying him, though…
163- If the Today Show is going wild over Palin, then she really would be an amazing choice. The cast of characters at the Today Show can usually be relied upon to adore Democrats and despise Republicans.
159 - But if the “elitist, northern” Dems try and make too much capital out of human suffering in the south AND the GOP have a reserved, efficient convention it could work against Obama. He could kiss goodbye to Virginia and Florida if that happens.
It could end up being as big a problem for the Democrats as for the GOP?
Hell, even people in the north would probably look askance at a few badly timed comments by a senior Democrat.
It could be ill-wind that blows nobody any good.
164 - I aim to please, Peter. Rarely succeed, but there you go.
164 - As Mrs Merton would put it: “So, Sarah, what first attracted you to being the septuagenarian John McCain’s VP?”
Last price matched: 1.19
An she looks very good on TV!
166 - I lost 20 quid
I lose 30 overall on Palin as I was in bed when these rumours started 
Does she have a beautiful, melodious voice?
I’ve laid (in the last 24 hours) Romney, then Pawlenty, then Palin. So very, very green.
From a general election point of view, hard to tell how this one goes. A little bit of a roll of the dice. Personally, I thought Pawlenty the better pick.
172- Maybe I’m reading too much into the hurricane/convention danger to the GOP, but in any event it is a most unwelcome coincidence and has big potential for trouble (if only because it will serve to remind people of something they didn’t like about the Bush presidency at a time when the GOP is trying to get things moving in their direction).
180. I can only dream of laying Palin…
I wish I followed the advice over everyone saying keep laying the favourites.
I will remember that next time.
All the others are now at least 10-1…
176…eye-candy springs to mind.
Larry Kudlow : McCain-Palin? I’ll Be Thrilled
I think Mac has found someone able to electrify the base!
McCain’s got the all-important Eskimo vote sewn up now. He must win.
181 — You can; she’s very cheap now.
180 - It gives Obama a bit of a free photo shoot too which will get him airtime during the Republican Convention. He will no doubt rock up at the scene in shirt-sleeves, looking concerned and dishing out soup or whatever.
If it does electrify the GOP then maybe the pick WILL be a game changer. The ‘enthusiasm gap’ could start being bridged.
I bet on palin a week ago @30/1. I laid £20, so hope to get 600 smackers if she’s is elected.
Palin — Nomination Percentage
intrade : 89%
betfair: 84%
All this talk about the huricane is fascinating. Clearly all you rooting for 4 more years are as nervous as longtailed cats in a rocking chair factory.
US is a rather large country, indeed contintental in size. So we are used to there being a natural disaster somewhere just about every day of the week.
A major huricane will be a tragedy whereever it hits. BUT it is unlikely to have a direct impact upon the GOP convention. Nor will anyone who isn’t a moron think worse of the assembled Republicans for going about their appointed business.
Though a direct hit on New Orleans WILL remind folks of just how criminally incompetent the Cheney Adminstration was when it came to mishandling Katrina. I say criminal because a lot of well-placed Bushies made a lot ill-gotten gains out of that disaster, just like they did out of the Iraq mess and other Cheney Administration screwups.
When will the recorded wagers section be updated? I can;t remember the ones I have for November. I seem to recall I need McCain not to get blown away (by a hurricane).