How big a gamble is Sarah Palin?
August 30th, 2008
Could she really just a heart-beat away from being President?
Yesterday the focus was on the betting excitement of McCain’s running mate choice and the fact that the rock solid safe favourites had been ditched for someone who just eighteen months ago was Mayor of a town of just 9,000 people.
Well we have all had 24 hours to let the news sink in and frankly it is still breath-taking. Some of the information that’s been dribbling out really adds to the questions marks over McCain’s choice.
The fact that, apparently the two had only met each other on a couple of occasions; the fact that she supports the teaching of creationism alongside evolution; the fact that she is still embroiled in a messy row over allegations about the use of her powers as governor over what’s said to be a family issue etc.. all add up to what Pat Buchanan is calling “the biggest political gamble in American history”.
A Politico article headed “Six things the Palin Pick says about McCain” lists as number one the fact that the GOP nominee is desperate.
One US commentator, Dan Gerstein sums it up“He’s betting his presidency on a naked political play for holdout Hillary supporters and other female swing voters - and hoping that a large share of these predominantly pro-choice women will ignore or overlook Palin’s staunch pro-life, anti-stem cell views.”
That just about spot on. We’ll see how it plays out - but what an amazing and exciting election.
Mike Smithson
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It’s risky, yes. But you have to speculate to accumulated. I’m inclined to believe it’s smart politics.
Given the utter ballsup Obama made of his veep pick, I’m inclined to think so. If McCain has any sense, he’ll love bomb America with her for the next eleven weeks.
As I said on the last thread:
In many ways, a lot of Americans may find it refreshing that she *has* come from this small-town, mayoral background. McCain needed to find someone *in-tune* with Middle Americans and he’s done that. He now needs to build a campaign presenting himself and Palin as more in-tune and realistic, competant people than the Democrats. This could strike a chord on the campaign trail.
At the end of the day, all this discussion about Palin simply demonstrates that selecting her was risky, but generated more high-profile comment and interest than the McCain camp has ever had. He needed that in order to avoid falling into the ‘inevitable loser’ hole. He needed people to talk about his campaign.
She could go either way; I think she’s a good choice (especially considering the others on offer for McCain), others may disagree. At the end of the day, though, we’ll have to see how she plays in the debates and the campaign proper before we’ll know how good a choice she’s been.
First post!
The idea that she will attract a significant amount of HRC supporters is misguided, in my opinion.
She seems more right-wing than McCain, and will appeal to people who would vote Republican anyway. Conversely, if McCain is seen as a moderate and some Dems were wavering towards him, she could put them off.
Have there been any polls since her appointment as VP?
American press reporting that McCain met her exactly once before he chose her.
I think it’s an insane move with McCain being so old, however watching the American news it’s giving the Republicans a lot of air time saying, “you think she has a lck of experience, so does BO”.
I’d love to know what Hillary is thinking/(throwing at the wall) at the moment.
I can imagine Biden in the debate “I know Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton is a friend of mine, and you are no Hillary Clinton”.
Mike,
Mac is not “desperate” — he’s a player who knows he’s the underdog in the game.
The most important gamble of this nomination is not to win “Hillary supporters and other female swing voters” — but to try to “fuse the two pillars of the Reagan Revolution, traditional conservatives and libertarian Republicans” — so that Mac can become Maverick Mac again, thus attracting indies…
Re the creationism thing, she’s not going to lose many votes for McCain over it, I shouldn’t think. She’s said in the past that she wants kids to be presented with the two different versions without any spin and let them make their own minds up. At the end of the day, that seems quite moderate to me.
I agree with the consensus - it’s a big risk, but in the position that McCain’s in right now it makes sense for him to take big risks.
Anyone know if McCain is still running his “celebrity” and “is he ready to lead” attack ads?
4 — It’s also an ambush in which Biden can fall by making comments that will seem either sexists or condescending.
Great article from Politico and this stands out in its shock value -
“On the potential downside, the drama was evidently entirely genuine. The fact that McCain only spoke with Palin about the vice presidency for the first time on Sunday, and that he was seriously considering Lieberman until days ago, suggests just how hectic and improvisational his process was.”
McCain needs a good answer to the question as to why she was his choice and why he didn’t get to campaign alongside his friend Lieberman or the more experienced Pawlenty?
That picture is so fake!
But glad she was picked because it made me quite a lot of money!
Are there any post convention polls, is Obama getting a bounce, if so how much?
BBC Scotland’s political editor, Brian Taylor, has conducted a “follow-up” tv interview with Alistair Darling:
BT: “You are fairly rude in the Guardian about a couple of colleagues - you think Wendy Alexander is unlikeable.”
AD: “I have got the utmost admiration for Wendy and the problems she went through.”
BT: “But you don’t like her very much?”
AD: “I didn’t say that at all.”
BT: “You said she’s unlikeable - are they quoting you wrong?”
AD: “No, I have the utmost respect for her and I thoroughly enjoy her encounters whenever we have them.”
BT: “But you said she’s unlikeable?”
AD: “No I didn’t.”
BT: “You didn’t say that, The Guardian are misquoting you?”
AD: “Brian, I have the utmost regard for Wendy and I will continue to have it and that remains my position.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7589723.stm
Jeez Louise….. it’s just too painful for words…..
I’d also like to point out (I alluded to it in the other thread) that the pick of Palin seems to have been successful in winning the support of the religious right without Palin being a zealot. She’s quite moderate in many ways. Getting a wing of your party on board whilst seemingly being able to appeal to independents is a fairly good choice, I’d argue.
I don’t think they have any great expectation of her winning over feminist Hillary supporters. I suspect its more about running as “Not your normal Republicans” (effectively independents) and getting away from the Washington Republican brand (which would lose) and getting back the maverick brand for McCain (which can win). Obama picking Biden helps on this front.
If they can campaign as anti-pork, anti corruption pro military and at the same time keep the base onside they have a chance.
10 - This is unusual in that there is no break between conventions, essentially this means that a bounce can be stepped on, Obama having made major gains up until today, whether it can be turned around is the question now.
12
I dont know why he tried to duck the question, her presentation style was terrible.
An old man picks a former beauty queen as his (running) mate …. it’ll all end in tears.
15.
“I dont know why he tried to duck the question”
Ducks quack……. politicians duck. Do they know how to do anything else?
Paul M @ 13 -> Precisely what I tried to say @ 4.
from Political Wire:
Quote of the Day
“It’s a wild gamble, undertaken by our oldest ever first-time candidate for president in hopes of changing the board of this election campaign. Maybe it will work. But maybe (and at least as likely) it will reinforce a theme that I’d be pounding home if I were the Obama campaign: that it’s John McCain for all his white hair who represents the risky choice, while it is Barack Obama who offers cautious, steady, predictable governance.”
– Former Bush speechwriter David Frum
11. “I did not overrule Derek Lewis” springs to mind…
I don’t know how Palin will play, it may be a disaster, it may be a masterstroke, all I do know is that it restores McCain total maverick streak which I have long liked about him.
Even as a Tory I like Obama and think he would do a good job in the White House, but this call by McCain has certainly put me 100% behind him in this race now, and I will be cheering McCain on come November 4th (which is also my birthday, would be a nice present, lol) Win or lose, good on you Mr McCain for trying something intersting with a risk factor, we need more people like him in politics.
12 - You may well be correct, but I’m interested in these reports suggesting that she has been a recent Pat Buchanan supporter…and he is seriously bad news. She - and McCain - must avoid the ‘extremist’ tag at all costs.
13. The potential for winning over the Hillary suppporters comes with any immoderate comments from Obama’s supporters about, for example, her beauty contest past or her family.
There’s interesting information here about the scandal about the fired trooper (not conclusive though).
http://www.newsminer.com/news/2008/jul/28/scrutiny-wooten-raises-conduct-questions/
17
PS
Im not on anything, just reacting you your unfair assault on George Osborne
10 paynie. No. The trackers will not have lost their convention set until Monday. There may be some polls on Sunday but it’s probable they’ll include some convention sampling. It’s possible a media outlet has asked for a Palin poll.
16 - Hmmm, not sure you’re the best equipped to opine on that ;). Or else Mrs W is a true saint…
3. I’d give much to see the grimace of horror that contorts Hilldog’s botoxed features if McCain gets elected, has a gripper and then Miss Alaska becomes the first female POTUS.
I think if you look at Nick Palmer’s post on the last thread - 293 he put a link to this:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/demographic_notes_2008_presidential_race
Looking at this and then contending maybe the female VP on the McCain ticket can shift some female votes may well ’seal the deal’ for McCain. That is one hell of a big lead for McCain amoung men by the way. I wonder if it is Reagan Democrat support in essence - shows that Men are flocking to McCain because of National Security. Could also be a race affect as Men tend to be more polarised on the issue (Diplomatic speak!).
23.
“In a gubernatorial debate, Palin stated emphatically that her opposition to abortion was so great, so total, that even if her teenage daughter was impregnated by a rapist, she would “choose life” — meaning apparently that she would not permit her daughter to have an abortion.”
you can forget any clinton democrats voting for her, seriously.
19. Maybe Frum is trying to stir up trouble for Obama? He is a Republican.
22. It sounds like Buchanan might be trying to grab some attention again:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Palin_not_on_1996_Buchanan_list.html?showall
That should read There is one hell of a big lead for McCain amoung White men by the way.
I’m grateful to McCain for making this pick….. previously it looked like we’d be subjected to a tiresome combination of windbags and old farts. Now in the true western tradition we have the unknown stranger riding in to clean up the town - maybe.
Whether this ploy will succeed or not, I can’t predict - but having done a few web searches overnight I’d say that it would be foolish to underestimate her - she’s a tough cookie.
29. Except they are not voting for someone to change the law on abortion. Geraldine Ferarro has sounded supportive of the choice, and I doubt she’s the only one.
26 John O. Mrs W is away !!
The momentum seems to have shifted from Obama to McCain, indeed Obama looks dead as a door nail now!
Think that is why some of the Obama fans are crying about this!
29 - How would she answer a version of the question about abortion that Dukakis was floored by?
“Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?”
4. I hope this works and that McCain wins the election. However, this is an awful pick and the tokenism element could lose him both Male and Female support.
I think she could probably get away without awnsering that one! She could just say her views on the subject are known and she will not involve her family in this debate for cheap party political advantage. She loves her family……………….
18 Sorry Phillippe - I hadn’t seen your post when I typed mine
38. ah so she comes across as a typical politican then
35 Martin Day. What momentum ??
Until a week after the end of the GOP convention we’ll not know how the race has been shaped by present events.
More importantly punters should remember that unaltered is :
“The Jack W Base For The Race” :
Obama = Kerry + Iowa + New Mexico = 264
McCain = 274
McCain must hold all 5EV battleground state to become President.
40. No, in that case she is not going to use her beliefs to score political points off her opponents by using her family. End of.
36 ukpaul
Suspect Obama would give a 5 minute soliloquy if asked that question. Which (from an electoral perspective) would not be the correct response.
37 - Matthew I asked on the last thread if anyone could point me towards McCain supporting Democrat blogs (preferably national journalists, aa la Sullivan), can you help?
It’s been a while since I don’t come here, so I don’t know if someone posted, but :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/08/palin_a_calculated_risk.html
41. Well i was assuming that Biden, the HRC speech, the Bill Clinton speech and the JFK brother speech, the obama greek tragedy speech had given Obama some momentum but obviously i was wrong!
Having momentum is not necessarily as being out in front. McCain has the momentum now and the focus. The Hurricane looks to be getting bigger and likely to hit the gulf coast this will mean the GOP’s convention could well be deffered. Not good for Obama strategically.
19.
“John McCain for all his white hair”
ALL his white hair? Time for a trip to Specsavers surely? Only the laquer sprayer has worked harder than Mccain’s candyfloss spinning machine, which David Cameron will doubtless be airlifting over here for his personal use before the next election.
“The fact that, apparently the two had only met each other on a couple of occasions;”
That is commonplace in Veep politics. Truman had seldom met Roosevelt, and Andrew Johnson did not meet Lincoln for the first time until after the 1864 election. I’m sure there are other examples, Teddy Roosevelt and McKinley most likely the same..
42. you see shes having to mention politics, she comes across has a typical run of the mill politican, i know this destroys your last 48 hours of rot on this website but no need to throw your toys out the pram
43 - It was a vile question to ask of Dukakis and I presume that Obama would sidestep it. The link I was making is regarding Palin and her ‘no abortion for rape victims’ stance though, how would she respond if asked a Dukakis type question? It’s an obvious question so she will need a response, saying that she would not allow an abortion will appear cold, saying that she would ruins her stance.
48. so commonplace you are having to use lincoln and roosevelt as examples
49.
You cannot understand the meaning of that hypothetical phrase: she is not going to use her beliefs to score political points off her opponents by using her family.
Surely that means she is not going to engage on a political level,
Nevermind I am glad you seem to think i am a spokesman for a GOP VP - especially as i have never been to the US!!!!
I saw a brief clip of Obama responding to a journalist on the choice of Palin for Republican VP, was not impressed. Its obvious that the Obama camp have yet to formulate a good strategy to undermine that choice?
Surely with all the hype and rumour this week she would have been on some sort of short list and therefore a more authoritative response was possible?
I was a bit surprised, because despite the focus on their own convention and the big speech on Thursday I can’t believe that there was not a team working around the clock to be ready to respond to the Republican VP announcement yesterday?
46 Martin. Since the start of the convention Obama’s momentum is a net gain of 10 points with Gallup and 4 points with Rasmussen.
There aren’t any. Moderates aren’t well represented in the blogosphere. The TNR Blog is pro-Obama generally but probably the least partisan of the blogs. Interestingly, the NRO is quite mixed with the editor saying she won’t vote at all becuse of Palin’s inexperience - though on some level this serves them right for being rabidly anti-Lieberman.
50.”43 - It was a vile question to ask of Dukakis and I presume that Obama would sidestep it.”
Agreed.
51.
Talking of commonplace, when did the US last elect a seriously-bald president? Tricky Dicky was receding a bit but what he had left was quite thick.
I seem to remeber Bill Clinton & Gore not spending too much time together after they were elected nevermind before.
The Obama camp really are struggling on this one - McCain has blown them out of the water!
They don’t know which way to turn or what to attack! Maybe they will turn on themselves next?
52 - “I am glad you seem to think i am a spokesman for a GOP VP - especially as i have never been to the US!!!!”
It also implies you might be in gainful employment which must please you too.
56. The question was raised in a debate because IIRC a convicted Murder had his sentance commuted by Carcus! That is what that was all about! I was only 12 at the time, so may need older hands to confirm it!
They are just the obvious and famous ones. I think Reagan/Bush is another, although they of course “met” during the 1980 Republican primaries. Ronnie apparently had difficulty remembering his Veep’s name….
59. F*ck you!
52
“i have never been to the US!!!!”
How would anyone think you had ever strayed further than the exclamation mark compost heap at the bottom of your garden?
62 - You’re welcome!
54. You said what momentum - I don’t follow your game! I was being sarky about the speeches.
In my view Obama has lost his momentum big style, it seems to have gone off a cliff!
57. Eisenhower?
57. Eisenhower
64. & 63. Game set and match i have won this debate and you have lost.
You descend from attacking the GOP Palin personally to me!
You have LOST
58.
Martin Day reports McCain blow job succeeds. Must be true then.
50 ukpaul agree she needs an answer
Not so sure Obama would sidestep it - suspect his constitutional law professor side would get the better of him. He jumped right into the recent scotus case on death penalty for child killers. (In favor as I recall)
Obama Obama Obama - Out Out Out!
Obama’s election will be the proverbial penalty kick. you just don’t vote for the McCain/Palin ticket if you believe that there is a future.
68 - I quite like Palin. But it does kind of annoy me a bit that you spend your time being inane on here rather than getting a job. Sorry to be a bit Tebbity about it!
70 - This is my concern about Obama in debates, he would give a nuanced but complex answer which passes people by. Better to give a simple one.
Just caught up on the posts of the last day or so.
Martin Coxall’s still trolling.
ukpaul is still a hypocrite.
Ho hum.
66/67.
Yes that’s what I thought. A couple of generations ago before the TV age really took hold of elections.
68.
“You have LOST”
Martin D seems to have suddenly lost his exclamation mark supply. Are they at the other end of the pram?
58. Martin, back on planet Earth Obama has a substantial lead in the polls (see Jack W’s entry at 54). I know you want McCain to win. I’m aware of that. But you are coming across as a little hysterical. The reace is still Obama’s to lose and Palin’s appointment may look a little desperate in the cold light of day. After all, given McCain’s age she has a reasonable chance of being president.
mike, you have a tremendous political antenna, but you are absolutely wrong on Palin.
She’s a home run.
75 - If someone is attacked you appear to think they should just let it happen.
I don’t like negative campaigns but if they atart on you then you have no option but to fight back.
There is no doubt that the negativity was aimed firstly at Obama with some of the most disgusting attacks that I have seen.
In a moral world there has to be a comeback.
As for you, you are clearly just a troll, entering into what was an interesting discussion to drag things down to the level you desire.
78 test. Don’t you mean she should be running a home ??
73. Do you Know how many f*cking jobs i have applied for? Hundreds, we live in an economy that is completly screwed up - Don’t ask me: Listen to what the C of E is saying. Before you comment on my spelling and punctuation - I check all my applications and indeed get other family to help sometimes.
How dare you say something like that to me, f*cking prick - My problem is I am seen as over-educated by many employers, too well spoken, too polite - most of important of all: Too much of a threat.
If i was that insignificant, stupid and useless - why comment on me? The point is i tend to judge these matters far better than some on these pages - if i had the stake money i would be raking it in!
76. You F*ck off as well!
I think we have to understand that Obama is far too intelligent and sophisticated than the vast majority of the US population who are simply thick as sh1t.
We in Europe do get Obama, we understand it.
Palin may come accross as inexperienced for the job, but Mccain can get away with that by pointing out the same about Obama. Palin is a great strategic choice, just because she is a woman and there are so many Clinton supporters who are still very bitter about Obama, and having a woman in a high ranking position can only further encourage them to switch to the Republicans.
Mccain has gained an extra dimension I feel with his running mate choice, whereas Obama has certaintly lost something in the sense that he can no longer really attack Mccain’s age when Biden is not too much younger.
I heard McCain on the radio this morning, announcing his Veep pick. He has a confident, calm and appealing voice - I would liken it physically, were that possible, to a cold glass of milk. Obama, on the other hand has a slightly angry, rasping voice - more like an electric razor. I suppose these things matter, to what extent I don’t know.
In all seriousness, Martin, if you are getting dozens of rejections then the problem probably isn’t with the employers. It does kind of annoy me when somebody I am sure is capable stays on the dole for a sustained period rather than for example getting some temporary office work.
77. Frankly I don’t care if McCain, Obama, Elvis presley or Micky Mouse is the US president. I am just stating what i think.
The only reason i get annoyed is smug pricks like james making comments on my employment prospects. Believe me, I hate being out of work - no reason to keep bringing it up, maybe i come on here to get away from the thinking i could be out on the street next month , I may get my line of credit cut etc-etc.
75. ukpaul.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/30/pbcom-exclusive-republican-convention-may-be-postponed/#comment-757838
When someone goes negative first then I will always turn on them
You seem to think that it’s OK to be negative so long as they started it - in itself an incredibly childish[*] argument.
You have been more anti-McCain than anyone serious here has been anti-Obama. And yet you get on your high horse because “McCain started it”. Pathetic.
[*] Literally. I expect that line from a six-year-old in the playground.
81…what is it that you are looking to do?
Oh dear.
Has Martin Day gone shocking again? And we’re not even after the PBC lagershed.
@87,75
Quick, ukpaul, Nanny’s here. We’d better behave or we’ll get a smacked bottom.
I FINK OBAMA IS GREAT AND I AM SORRY THAT I SAID THAT UKPAUL SMELLS OF WEE.
88 - Martin is a qualified financial adviser.
85. Not been funny - why would I stay on the dole if i get further into debt each month?
Temporary Office work - Applied for a four month contract amungst others: They are not interested. You can be the friendliest - can do person, obtaining qualifications off your own back, more experience/Knowledge than the people you are interviewed against and nothing! People tend to think: He will get a job elsewhere?
One recent Job interview i went to: I got top marks on my technical Knowledge - they said i was not down to earth enough - you have got to be kidding! A bloke who goes shoppingat Asda, loves going to Mcdonalds and Burger king, talking to strangers on trains, boozing in wetherspoons etc: Not down to earth enough? Mad - completly barking mad
87. ukpaul is probably the best user here, i suspect you just don’t have the guts to call out the republican cybertrashers we’ve had flooding the site over the last 2-3 days.
87 - Oh for god’s sake just listen to yourself. Do you let people lie and smear and just smile as you let them do so? If you do, as you clearly expect of others, then you must be some sort of saint.
People on the thread, please note that we were having an interesting discussion and then someone comes along with a desire to disrupt it. This happens again and again.
You forget how I was positive about McCain until the Rove tactics kicked in. That was his prerogative but what sort of person lets their opponent do that? Dukakis, Kerry, losers.
Until these tactics are negated by showing how they will lead to self destruction as well as to that of their opponent then they will continue. Short term pain of course, but enough is enough.
Can we get back to the thread now please, talking about the issues as we were before we were so rudely interrupted?
Martin-Don’t let the pri*cks get to you-they are not worthy-i have been in your position in the past(now retired)-something WIll crop up even if it means a change of direction-CHIN UP.
93. It’s called a difference of opinion, not ‘cyber-trashing.’
Goodness, how exciting this board would be if we all agreed!
90 - Martin, careful or we’ll put you in the rubber suit *with no talcum powder*!
93 - Careful Dan, you say that and you are a marked man.
92 - stop ruining this website with your pointless banter. You have no judgement on political issues and you’re just a nuisance. I stopped participating in debates here when I realised I wasn’t really adding anything, and now I’m content just to read it without commenting. I suggest you do the same.
“One recent Job interview i went to: I got top marks on my technical Knowledge - they said i was not down to earth enough - you have got to be kidding! A bloke who goes shoppingat Asda, loves going to Mcdonalds and Burger king, talking to strangers on trains, boozing in wetherspoons etc: Not down to earth enough? Mad - completly barking mad”
It must have been the monocle that gave you away….
92 - I was thinking temping rather than short term contracts.
I worry (genuinely) that you are blaming the employers rather than looking seriously at yourself. You do come over on here as a bit eccentric to say the least. There would be some sense in signing up with a temping agency which would give you a chance to get to know potential permanent employers - I expect you are a more capable and likable person than the immediate impression suggests.
@96:
“cybertrasher”? Me?
It seems that Obama’s Messiah complex has grown to such an extent that his minions have started inventing new names for the infidels.
I’d prefer ‘McKaffir’.
The art of suceeding in a job interview does not involve the candidate showing themselves to be the most knowledge, brainy candidate in the world because employers will look at that and think “this person will be impossible to mould into our organisation because they are too set in their ways and don’t accept the fact that every employee still has something to learn”.
Try toning it down a bit, and tell employers what they want to hear, not just what you know.
Michael Kennedy@83: I think you’re missing the point about Palin’s inexperience. It’s not that it makes a useful attack for the Democrats - it’s that it fends off the inexperience attack when directed at Obama.
Until now McCain’s main argument has been that we live in a dangerous world and need an experienced military man like himself to protect us. This is a pretty powerful line - and becomes even more powerful when there’s a foreign policy crisis or a terrorist attack. Up until now this was how I could most easily see McCain winning; There could well be a terrorist attack in the lead-up to the election, and if there isn’t the administration has a certain amount of ability, and plenty of incentive, to create a foreign policy crisis right before the election. For the exceedingly mortal John McCain to pick someone to take over from him in an emergency with no foreign policy experience at all of any kind makes this argument very hard to sustain.
Bill Maher puts the case is put much more entertainingly here:
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=uKULb2JLDJs
Likewise, an attack on your opponent for being a celebrity rather than a serious is probably less persuasive when your VP pick is on the cover of Vogue…
Here’s a simple suggestion: can’t all you people who find Martin Day’s non-linear narratives troublesome just not read his posts?
93. Dan Smith: See my post 75. I equally called out the most prominent McCainite and the most prominent Obamaniac.
94. ukpaul: The point is that either negative campaigning is a valid tactic or it isn’t. Claiming it’s only valid if “they started it” is ridiculous.
Hence your attacks on McCain validate McCain’s attacks on Obama.
104. Edmund in Tokyo: I think you’re missing the point about Palin’s inexperience. It’s not that it makes a useful attack for the Democrats - it’s that it fends off the inexperience attack when directed at Obama.
But it also tempts the Obama camp into making that attack - which they have done. And that attack isn’t “useful”, it’s counter-productive.
104 - The picture is a fake!
This employment argument needs a referee…
In the blue corner, James et al are correct that people who are perennially blaming the employers/politicians/country need to knuckle down and accept a) it might be them or b) even if it is other people, it’s surely the same for everybody else. Also, i graduated with a Master’s from the LSE last year and many of us had to do temp work rather than sitting on the dole. It isn’t nice, in fact it’s horrible, but we took it like most others do.
In the red corner (for his face is), Martin is right that in spite of a lot of effort job hunting (especially for your first) is a bit thankless. All our lives we were told to get a good education to get a job, so we got a good education and then still get knocked back for what feels like eternity. At times it’s a tough take. I applied for 30, some of my friends for over 50, and we are pretty educated gender-neutral guys. Self pity does occasionally kick in.
BUT the thing we did differently was that we didn’t swear in public but instead sucked it up like the rest of them. Ergo, James wins by split decision.
@109:
What’s a ‘gender neutral guy’?
Gender inclusive would probably be better. It’s the Friends generation.
104. Yes I do accept your point to some extent, but it is surely better to have the experienced person in the White House with the inexperienced person as his deputy, than the other way round. And in reality how many times recently has the Vice President had to take over the Presidency mid-term? Yes I am aware of Mccain’s age, but the chances of him dying in the next four years are really quite slim. The benefits of a female candidate was clearly just too strong for Mccain to turn down. Perhaps the shame is that there are not really many high profile female Republicans to choose from. I always thought Condoleezza Rice would have been a good choice, but never seemed to be in the running, but thats a whole other debate I guess.
How can anyone consider anything that goes on on this site, negative or otherwise, “campaigning”?
Mikes question belies a surprised and sore loser. How much did you lose Mike on your bet’s for Pawlenty or Huckabee?
I’m really surprised by your seeming attitude mike it dosnlt become you.
Also, 14 had it close to spot on. Superficially this is about Clinton females, but they know that their interests lie more with Obama than McCain with a dash of Palin. What Palin does is a) energise the base and b) interest the soccer moms, who aren’t Clintonistas but might be Barackas. It’s successfully united the party for the convention, will bring the evangelicals on board, continues McCain’s maverick persona and with that the reformer ticket. All that for losing the experience argument - probably worth it.
Plus, McCain has caught up, but he wasn’t on to win, but rather to getting a respectable 47%. Pawlenty would have got him that. Palin will mean he either gets 50+ or sub 46%, but if you’re going to lose you may as well lose by more while trying to really win the thing.
106 - A ‘valid’ tactic is one thing, a worthy one is another.
Of course it’s a ‘valid’ tactic because it works. The only two options you have are, my favoured one, no negative attacks and smears and I would do anything to ensure that was the case in any campaign but promises are broken (see McCain’s earlier wishes as regards this campaign). The second one being that you have to fight fire with fire, only by showing the perpetrators the effects by turning it back on them can you negate it.
It may not get through for a while but, sooner or later, people will tire of seeing and reading it and turn against the first side that uses it.
You suggest that Obama attacking validates McCain’s attacks. That is crazy as *the attacks themselves were their own validation*. Who culd seriously suggest, given US electoral history, that ignoring negative attacks and smears is a way to win?
On a wider scale, anyone knows that a defence is needed to counter the possibility of attack. The greater the threat of retaliation, the greater the chance that an attack will not happen. If you sit within your borders and try and ignore belligerent talk from without then you are virtually inviting an attack on you.
102 — the art of succeeding in a job interview is to be referred by a mate who already works for the company. Long term unemployment is hard to escape from because you are never the best option for the prospective employer. The safe option is the candidate who is already doing the same job for the company down the road. Yes, you can probably pick it up after a week but the other applicants can definitely fit in from day one.
And if you need expensive training, you are also up against already qualified applicants from abroad.
Temp work is rarely an option. The agencies have the same criteria as above.
What hurts is that the government, and the next government, label you a work-shy dole scrounger. Rather than help, they harrass.
Seriously, ring round your friends. See if their employers are looking for people.
And when you do land something, learn how to work an alarm clock!
36: My recollection of the Dukakis exchange is that he answered it (IMO) very well, on the lines of, “I think I would be so angry and bereaved that I would want the death penalty for him. But I don’t think the justice system should be based on how I’d feel at that moment.” It’s certainly the naswer I’d give in a debate, and expect a substantial part of the audience on my side - and US polls don’t show such overwhelming support for the death penalty either.
The problem, as I recall it, was that he chose to respond to an upsetting provcation by calmly intellectualising it - so people thought ‘what a cold fish’. If he’d bopped the interviewer on the nose, Prescott style, he’d probably have done better.
BTW, I don’t think we should be debating Martin’s job prospects here - I’m sure it’s tough for him and we don’t really know the position; anyway it’s not a lot to do with politics or betting.
“How can anyone consider anything that goes on on this site, negative or otherwise, “campaigning”?”
I agree, but in a way, betting talk is a proxy as it revolves around what we think is happening and will happen.
@116:
Winning isn’t the most important thing about elections. It’s the only thing.
Consoling yourself that you lost, but at least you have some imagined moral upper hand is a mug’s game and for those with a political martyr complex.
This desire to be principled losers is part of what’s wrong with the left.
116.
Anyone expecting no negative attacks in a US presidential election campaign is optimistic in the extreme.
Given that there will be negative attacks (there always are), what does it matter who happens to use the first one?
119 - So why does that require “responding” to negative comments about Obama by dredging up a load of negative comments about McCain?
Teaching creationism in science classes isn’t moderate because creationism isn’t science.
The only thing that unhinge McCain’s campaign now is Hurricane Gustave. He even may turn the weather to his advantage by choreographing the RNC opening with a big advertising splash.
123. Palin didn’t suggest that, she said creationism should be taught in religious classes only.
120 - “This desire to be principled losers is part of what’s wrong with the left.”
I fully agree (see, we agree on something!); as Nick says above, Dukakis took an emotional question and gave a calculated answer when a response expressing disgust at the question would have been better. Kerry barely rose above the level of a little bit irked, Gore even let Bush take the upper hand when he could have made 2000 much more difficult and drawn out. He rarely showed the passion that he subsequently has.
Where is the fire? Where is the desire to win?
I hope that Obama has this, he may need it.
@126:
Given what Church Obama went to, I suspect he has plenty of fire. And probably a fair amount of brimstone too.
123 — that’s fine.
Do I think a republican administration would respect that barrier? No I do not.
@128:
School curricula are not a federal matter.
121 - It gives the moral upper hand at least.
122 - Alex, I posted about the betting implications earlier; it happens that my political views and betting views coincide in this instance and, in a perfect world, people would point out things like this from their own ’side’ but, in the inevitable absence of that, I would hope people could see that there is that dual purpose.
What’s at the top sets the tone.
Okay, here’s a bit of evidence from polling.
Nate Silver dissecting the Palin numbers from Rasmussen finds a gender gap (and the figures do seem to be very clear on this).
“Women View Palin More Skeptically than Men ”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/women-more-skeptical-of-palin-than-men.html
“These numbers pretty much speak for themselves, but men have a favorable impression of Palin by a 35-point margin, whereas women have a favorable impression of her by an 18-point margin. Conversely, by a 23-point margin, women do not think Palin is ready to be President, whereas Palin lost this question among men by a considerably smaller 6-point magrin.
Why does this gap exist? Don’t know, but it may simply be a matter of ideology. Men are generally a bit more conservative than women, and opinions of Palin are very strongly determined by ideology. Conservatives have a favorable impression of her by a 79-8 margin, but this falls to 43-35 among moderates and 26-46 among liberals. Likewise, by a 48-22 margin, conservatives think she’s ready to be President, but she loses this question 23-54 among moderates and 9-67 among liberals.”
If this could be split into gender and ID then this would be easier to see (or not).
130. ukpaul: It gives the moral upper hand at least.
Those in politics who want it can have it. Martin Coxall’s post 120, which you say you agree with, explains why.
As for the election, as I’ve said before, if I had a vote, I’d probably cast it for Obama. The things that have me saying only “probably” are (a) the way that certain supporters of him (not just here) pour vitriol on anyone who expresses doubts he’ll be a perfect President, and (b) the nonsensical “McCain will be Bush’s third term” comment.
I remain nearly certain that Obama will win. But at this stage, there really shouldn’t be any doubt at all - he should be walking it.
132 - I can’t believe the large majority of the American electorate knew who Palin was until a couple of days ago
132. Interesting numbers from Nate Silver.
I wonder how much of it is down to what I call the Big Brother effect - only one and a half of the eight winners of the main UK series have been female, and the voters are predominantly female. For some reason, there seems to be a greater tendency for women to support women rather than back them.
118. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF9gSyku-fc is the video of Dukakis’ response. Not quite how you remembered it!
135. That makes no sense - I screwed up the editing! I’ll try again!
132. Interesting numbers from Nate Silver.
I wonder how much of it is down to what I call the Big Brother effect - only one and a half of the eight winners of the main UK series have been female, and the voters are predominantly female. For some reason, there seems to be a greater tendency for women to oppose women rather than back them (where gender is an issue).
@138:
Women hate other women?
Isn’t it extraordinary that after an electoral process that has gone on for well nigh two years, a process so tedious that one’s teeth threaten to fall out through sheer boredom, the USA, with a population of 300 million, could easily have a president from a place, let’s face it, should really be in Canada, and chosen on a whim after one meeting by a 72 year old man.
139. Martin Coxall.
It certainly seems that there’s some evidence of it. After all, Big Brother is perhaps the best example we have of a straight popularity contest. People don’t vote on who they think would be best for (whatever it is), they vote on who they like.
However Big Brother is mostly voted on by the young as opposed to elections which generally skew to the upper age brackets.
Even Martin Day’s false biographical ramblings are more interesting than Big Brother.
so palin has massively favourable numbers amongst both men and women, is what you’re saying? Plus eighteen with women (huge) and plus 35 with men (epic)?
13. Forcing rape victims to have their attacker’s baby seems to be the position of a zealot to me.
34. Ferraro hates Obama, and would say anything to hurt him now. There are some very petty people in politics.
38. So McCain will just get a landslide now, rather than the huge landslide you were predicting?
85. McCain has really come on as a candidate from a few months ago. He’s improved his speaking (admittedly from a very low level), and he’s more confident and has got his zest back. Unfortunately for him, his campaign is still as appalling as ever, which is what would cost him, even in a better political environment for the Republicans. I’m still saying 6-8 point win for Obama.
114. People were mad betting on Huckabee. He would have been a right-wing extremist to independents while simultaneously pissing off the GOP base for his tax views. There way no way he would have been picked. People advocating his selection did not understand the dynamics of the Republican core vote.
115. Spot on. The energy this brings to the Republican ticket without immediately offending independents is the best thing about the choice. It’s hard to imagine Pawlenty or Portman doing that.
118. I think you are confusing what Dukakis said with what I have said he should have said (on this very site!)
138. I also don’t imagine those with a feminist streak will be as impressed with a ex-beauty queen mother of five as they were with a battling workhorse like Clinton.
142. ukpaul.
This is certainly true. I’d like to see the breakdown by age, but the crosstabs are pay content.
Rasmussen’s article makes interesting reading too:
Palin Makes Good First Impression: Is Viewed More Favorably than Biden
Sarah Palin has made a good first impression. Before being named as John McCain’s running mate, 67% of voters didn’t know enough about the Alaska governor to have an opinion. After her debut in Dayton and a rush of media coverage, a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 53% now have a favorable opinion of Palin while just 26% offer a less flattering assessment.
Palin earns positive reviews from 78% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats and 63% of unaffiliated voters. Obviously, these numbers will be subject to change as voters learn more about her in the coming weeks. Among all voters, 29% have a Very Favorable opinion of Palin while 9% hold a Very Unfavorable view.
By way of comparison, on the day he was selected as Barack Obama’s running mate, Delaware Senator Joseph Biden was viewed favorably by 43% of voters.
[...]
In the new survey, 35% of voters say the selection of Palin makes them more likely to vote for McCain while 33% say they are less likely to do so. Most Republicans say they are more likely to vote for Palin and most Democrats say the opposite. As for voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% are more likely to vote for McCain and 28% less likely to do so. Those numbers are a bit more positive than initial reaction to Biden.
[...]
Forty percent (40%) of voters say Palin was the right choice for McCain. That’s comparable to the 39% who initially said Biden was the right choice for Obama. Following the Democratic National Convention, the number who believed Biden was the right choice grew to 47%. It will be especially significant to see where Palin’s numbers are following the GOP gathering next week.
When Biden was selected, just over half (52%) of Democrats believed he was the right choice. Sixty-three percent (63%) of Republicans say McCain picked the right running mate in Palin, and 40% of unaffiliated voters agree. A week ago, 31% of unaffiliateds said the same about Obama’s selection.
Republicans were evenly divided as to whether Biden was the right choice for Obama, but Democrats strongly reject Palin as McCain’s best option. Only 22% of those in Obama’s party say Palin was the right choice, while 47% disagree.
Just 29% of voters say Palin is ready to be president if necessary, ten points below the 39% who said the same a week ago about Biden, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a 36-year member of the Senate. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Republican voters say she is ready along with 32% of unaffiliated voters and 11% of Democrats.
Democrats already have begun to attack Palin for a lack of Washington experience even though the message of their party’s presidential ticket is change. One of the reasons McCain clearly chose Palin is because she is the ultimate Washington outsider, even coming from the state on the continental United States that is furthest from the Nation’s Capital. Joe Biden has been in the Senate since Palin was nine years old.
By the end of the Democratic National Convention, the number who said Biden was ready to be President grew by ten points to 49%. Again, it will be especially significant to see where Palin’s numbers are following the Republican National Convention.
In Alaska, the 44-year old Palin’s job performance as governor gets good or excellent marks from 64% of voters statewide.
143. larf: Even Martin Day’s false biographical ramblings are more interesting than Big Brother.
I agree, but the results it throws up shouldn’t be rejected because of it, if they can be analysed sensibly.
I haven’t got any issues with her views; I agree with all of them with the notable exception of guns. Her experience really is the bigger problem for McCain; but how exactly do the Democrats exploit it? Afterall, can it really be said that she is less experienced than Barack Obama?
A couple of days ago hardly anyone had an opinion on her, that short amount of time is nowhere near enough to make decisions (betting or otherwise) on.
“Nationwide, four percent (4%) have a Very Favorable opinion of Palin while seven percent (7%) have a Very Unfavorable view. Twenty-one percent (21%) hold less firm opinions of her and are evenly divided.”
67% (I know it adds up to 99%, rounding presumably) has no opinion of her before yesterday.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/sarah_palin_unknown_nationally_popular_in_alaska
Another interesting datum from fivethirtyeight.com, of which Jack W should perhaps take note:
“Obama wins all Kerry states: 55.70%”.
I would suggest that is too low to consider it a “base for the race”, poetic though that phrase might be.
146 - You being nice to me now?
Seriously, I hope that, even if you don’t like my position, that you can see that it is consistent and logical.
148 - I think they will exploit the lack of any previous statements by her on issues, the idea of experience isn’t really the issue,. Her positions on foreign affairs, in particular, don’t seem to be much covered so far.
148. Yes, it can be said, as governing a tiny state like Alaska is hardly the same as dealing with nuclear proliferation in the US Senate. But you’re right. The Democrats shouldn’t exploit it. Talking about experience, or anything other than the issues or the direction of the country, doesn’t help Obama.