Is Darling trying to spike Gord’s latest “re-launch”?
August 30th, 2008
Should you be betting on an early Brown departure?
The main story from BBC News overnight is the interview that Alastair Darling has given to the Guardian in which he says that Britain’s economic prospects are the “worst for 60 years”.
The timing could not have been more significant as Brown prepares for yet another “relaunch” in order to try to stem the massive decline in Labour’s support that we have seen over the past six months. That was due to start on Monday with a series of carefully choreographed announcements that will bring the PM to the fore.
But are the messages that are coming from the PM and Chancellor about the economy compatible each other? Could Darling’s “gloom” warning be seen as a way of undermining Brown who clearly has a lot of his personal political capital invested in things being less worse than might appear?
The Telegraph’s interpretation is “that Mr Darling is determined not to be blamed for Gordon Brown’s troubles”. The paper also picks up on Darling’s comment that other people are “actively trying to do his job” - a remark that will be widely interpreted as a sideswipe at the Prime Minister. ”
There has been active talk during the summer that what could precipitate the leadership issue is if a senior minister “did a Sir Geoffrey Howe” - a reference to the Tory Deputy PM’s resignation statement to the Commons in November 1990 that is seen the key factor that led to Mrs. Thatcher’s ousting. The most likely candidate that is suggested is Alistair Darling.
It’s going to be an interesting autumn and I’ve not given up altogether on the 6/1 and 5/1 bets I made earlier in the year that Gord would not survive 2008.
Mike Smithson
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Mike, you mentioned your wife found Palin’s voice grating.
The fact that she is being sold as the all American mom kind of grates with me, if any of you watch Desperate Housewives, think Bree - the too perfect over the top mom and housewife with the added twist of being a gun loving neocon.”
If you have never watched Desperate Housewives check out a clip of Bree if you can found one on Youtube and compare her voice to that of Palin!!
It’s a remarkably frank interview, but there is not a hint of criticism of Brown, or any indication that Darling is about to resign…
But he’s correct. We’re doooomed….. Doomed I tell ye…
1.should be find not found.
1 – The biggest draw back with Palin is that she is totally unveted – amazingly, last night she was unveiled in front of a crowd that was larger than the population of the town she was Mayor of two years ago! She’s never appeared on meet the press and has some potentially damaging links with Pat Buchanan.
That said, she’s a woman, she’s as far ‘outside of the belt-way’ as you could get and she provides a balance of youth to the GOP ticket (although might their be a risk she actually draws attention to McCain’s age?).
It’s a pick that could be very good for McCain but it’s also one filled with risks as there’s no way of knowing what might be unearthed by the media now, considering how low here national profile has been up till now.
4.I think she was a good choice in the short term in that it has really taken the spotlight of Obama and the Democrats the day after the big stadium speech, but not so sure about the longer term?
4. Any criticisms of Palin should be placed in perspective with the alternatives…
Mitt “life-like” Romney, for instance…
The point is that it IS filled with risks but McCain needed to take risks to have a chance of winning.
5 - Agreed, by picking a woman and a certified ‘maverick’ McCain has grabbed some the glare from the successful close to the Dem convention - it sets the GOP up nicely for their convention but i cant see much that they will be able to do at the convention itself to exploit the momentum they may gain from the Palin pick.
The big risks for the GOP is that the convention reinforces the tie between McCain and Bush (both Bush and Cheney will be speaking along with a host of familiar GOP faces, who aren’t exactly ‘flavor of the month’ with the average American voter right now) added to which McCain is not at all good at the set-piece speech (something that might also hamper him in the debates depending on the format that’s agreed)… having said that the media attention the convention will get should in of it’s self provide McCain with some sort of lift.
6 - True, the alternatives of Ridge, Lieberman, Romeny and Pawlenty were all very poor and had non of the capacity that Palin does to really add to McCain’s appeal… but, as i say, she also has the capacity to hurt McCain precisely because she is so ‘unknown’.
Peter Oborne in the Daily Mail today is a must read, it very interesting when you factor in that he was probable unaware of either the timing or content of the Guardian interview with Darling. Recession and the disturbing lesson of history from a Prime Minister in denial
“The Prime Minister is a very proud man. But he now needs to come to terms not just with the fact that his legacy as Chancellor is a mess but also - just as hurtful - that intellectually he got the British economy completely wrong.
In short, Gordon Brown finds himself in the dire position of a man who every day sees his life’s work being destroyed before his eyes.
The deeply worrying problem is that Mr Brown has yet to admit this. Like many people confronted with a catastrophe or a bereavement (and the destruction of his economic policy, for so long his pride and joy, may have hit him with the full emotional force of a death in the family), Gordon Brown has gone into a state of denial.
For almost a year now, he has been refusing to accept that the British economy is entering recession.
This state of denial explains the increasingly bizarre series of economic statements emanating from Downing Street and the Treasury.
For some months the Prime Minister has been insisting that the British economy is in a fairly decent state and, what is more, in a far better position than other major economies to confront the international economic downturn.
Everybody in the real world knows that this claim is farcical. Official figures show there are only three countries in the top 50 world economies with more profligate public borrowing policies than Britain: Egypt, Pakistan and Hungary.
Then there is the matter of the official Treasury economic forecasts, as set out by poor Alistair Darling in his Budget last March.
According to Darling, the British growth rate was set to fall only slightly this year, before recovering in 2009 and beyond.
Darling thought that borrowing would not exceed £43 billion, and that inflation and unemployment would remain reasonably stable. Darling’s Budget was pure fantasy.
It showed that the Chancellor had not the faintest idea of what was really happening out there in the British economy.”
Has Brown’s well briefed political relaunch been fatally damaged before its even got started?
Reporting from Arkansas:
Last night my wife and I joined Harrison County Democrats in Gulfport, Mississippi for their Acceptance speech party. They were expecting about 20 people but nearly 80 turned up. Everyone was very excited and enjoyed the warm-ups and then the amazing speech by Obama. I know that some of those present had marched during the Civil Rights 60s and whilst there were plenty of tears in the room there was overwhelming joy at witnessing an amazing piece of history being made.
We then travelled up to central Mississippi where we spent a couple of hours with family. This was the Republican side of our lot; the immediate response to poor old McCain’s choice of Veep was hostility among the men and laughter at the men’s reaction among the women. There was a decidedly embarassed feel to the anger of the men who had been touting McCain loudly before his announcement.
No mention was made of the Obamathon of the previous evening.
Here in central Arkansas where McCain was being touted to win big we have been unable to find ant interest at all. However, driving through some of the poor rural areas of the south we were amazed by the number of Democrat yard signs for local races.
I hope to offer some more glimpses as we make our way through Republican country to the frozen tundra.
Car sign count: McCain 1 Obama 0
Yard count: Obama 1 [actually dozens in the same garden] McCain 0.
Such excitement.
Malcolm
To the “doomsters” we must now add Darling.
11 - Very interersting. Could be that Palin is too outside-the-box for many traditionalist voters, themeselves a diverse group but pretty thick on the ground all across the USA east of the Mississippi River.
OFF TOPIC
Personally I like Sarah Palin - not her social conservatism, but instead for her fight against the good old boys - and think she’s a appealing choice. But also a risky one.
Indeed, what McCain’s choice underlines is the fact that he is a risk taker.
Now among other things, this puts the entire notion of attacking Obama as the risky option voter voters into logical jeopardy.
ON TOPIC
Why is it that everytime I see the name “Alastair Darling” I always think of “Blackadder”?
6 calling Mitt Romney “life-like” is an insult to all life-forms.
This looks like an extension to outside of election nights of Labour’s strategy to ‘predict low’ and ‘achieve’ a little better. Things may be looking dodgy but ‘60 years’ coveos some seriously bad economic periods.
let’s just hope they’ve finally found a pessimistic scenario that even they can’t undershoot, eh ?
“Darling was given a personal taste of the austere climate when ticked off by a waiter for ordering a second bottle of wine during a meal with his wife, Maggie, and another couple. “The waiter came over and said ‘too much wine’ in a loud voice. So we stuck to one bottle for the entire meal.”
Doing his bit for the economy then…
On a slightly different tack, i wouldn’t be surprised if the answer to the question posed is “no”. In fact i wouldn’t be surprised if most of the supposed “undermining the leadership” interviews in the recent past are nothing of the sort.
The problem is that nobody in the Govt is talking to each other, or at least there is no firm direction being set as a result of these talks, with the result that every Cabinet minister is going off and doing their own thing with regards to “reviving the fortunes of the Govt”. And because everyone has got a different idea of what is needed it results in a mass of ridiculously contradictory approaches, which leads the press no alternative but to make the spin that they do.
US ELECTIONS
Yesterday, Rod Crosby asked a question that was in my mind aslo, after the Palin nomination:
What if McCain now says I only intend to serve one term… ?
GOP landslide?
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/08/29/will-they-stop-naming-streets-after-roger/#comment-757217
Stars and Stripes answered this:
McCain can’t do that. It would be a monumentally foolish concession and would hand the White House to the Democrats.
I’d love to have the opinions of others posters as well.
Thanks in advance.
15 - It’s a logical move for the Mr Bean government to relaunch itself as the Blackadder government. What we need now is for Balls-drick to come up with a cunning plan.
One thing is for sure. That secular progressive Barack Hussein Obama will start World War 3 with his naive and stupid ideas about foreign policy.
McCain/Palin 08.
How did Palin get through the vetting with this about -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UojMnCgqVA
Does not look good and will run
I’m flabagasted at Darling’s statement. To go from his previous position to actually facing the reality of just how serious a position we’re in is a huge leap. Brown has nothing left now. His tractor stats will be treated with derision. I always thought Brown would survive until 2010, but with Darling no turning and not prepared to play the fall guy, then he could be out very soon.
I think it was tat joint press conference that broke Brown and Darling’s relationship. Could you imagine Brown going to share the blame at one of Blair’s!
Video
Palin firing an M-16:
http://in.youtube.com/watch?v=QFjqZ_vvLNc&eurl=http://gunvideos.blogspot.com/
they investigated that, mike. Palin is an epic home run.
Once this remarkable news filters down into the polls I believe we could be seeing Labour getting close to 20% or maybe even sub20!
24. I too was amazed by the statement. A NuLiebour politician actually telling the truth when it is not to their political advantage!
“in order to try to stem the massive decline in Labour’s support that we have seen over the past six months.”
Pedantically, it’s really been over the last YEAR, not six months, that their support has declined, hasn’t it? Since March it’s actually been fairly stable (albeit the kind of stability you get in someone who’s been horribly injured in a car crash and is on life support).
Anyway, I draw four conclusions from Darling’s interview:
1. The Prime Minister has absolutely no authority left even amongst his senior colleagues.
2. Darling has a speck of honour and honesty about him that I wouldn’t have guessed existed at the top of NuLab.
3. The Conservatives are about to top 50% in the polls and may head towards 55%.
4. We may well see our plumbers flying to Poland to get work there soon.
re 26 Test - the investigation is still under way and is highly toxic. The charge that she used her position for family purposes and got someone fired when they would not play ball is going to run and run for the next two months.
Exclusive! Harry Hill leads double life as top Tory donor.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1050637/Billionaire-Tory-party-treasurer-faces-Britains-biggest-divorce-settlement-split-wife.html#comments
I’ve just caught up on the previous threads. Excellent piece Pyrenean of research Mike. I’m sure we can all agree that Roger’s ‘Rue’ trumps ‘Acacia’a’ Avenue’ who everyone knows was a Tory so it’s another tick in the red box…..
As for the prediction that Obama had no chance….enough said. He’s a shoo in. With all due respect to McCain you’d fear for your clothes if he was your wine waiter and choosing a VP who looks like his grand daughter is -from an image point of view- bizarre…..
As for Alistair Darling …….Labour are disintegrating infront of our eyes. Miliband has to be their only and best hope and must be odds on to be PM before Xmas.
This is pretty amazing stuff from Darling, If it is expectation management then it is surely the most economically dangerous example in history. If it is Darling just coming clean then Brown has had it.
On Palin my shallow comment is phwoarr!! and that is probably the extent to which I will comment on the US elections.
31, Milipede? Bleh. You’d be better off with Johnson, Denham or Straw.
Darling’s trying to entrench himself as unsackable. If he were fired now, it looks much more likely he’d do a Geoffrey Howe, and who would want to take over at the Treasury?
29 mike you act as if the mccain team did not know all about this. The issue cane up weeks ago. You may be sure the veep team went through it with a fine toothed comb and found it bogus.
I’d worry about Ayres if I were a Democrat.
I thought you were the all-time champion of women politicians? She will ace this. Her bluecollar husband, union membership, it’s the full package.
The US November was always going to be the side show to the main event, namely the Democrat primaries in deciding the next POTUS.
McCain’s choice of Palin has now turned this one sided side show into a freak show.
Our two foremost right slanting tipsters- Caveman/ Jan from Norway- I would like to see comments from you both today that the game is up, and anything on Bama is value.
@35:
Good morning!
I see the panic among the Obama botherers hasn’t waned overnight…
RE Darling being criticised for ordering more wine and being shouted at in a petrol station, it rings true. there was that MP who said he was fed up with being shouted at in Supermarkets(. at the time of the GE by election.)
Darling has publically acknowledged what most of us knew already.
Nobody is gloating abour what Labour has done to Britain.
For years, Labour introduced laws that made it increasingly difficult for people to business.
On boards like this, people would ask what is the point of certain laws. They’s say they would have to sack people and eventually leave the country. The reply from the lefties were simple ‘Bye. Dont let the door hit you on the way out’. The left gloated when wealth generators, the independent minded and self starters were targeted and driven out.
With the help of a complicit media, the BBC, Murdoch & Lefty Press, Labour succeeded in duping a sizable minority.
Mean while Labour persecuted decent people, signed over sovereignty to foreign powers, brought in hoards of immigrants and devalued everything that made Britain Great.
Who would imagine a worthless education system with 99% pass rates. A health service with filthy wards and cleaners unfamiliar with the operation of a toilet. A cowered police service unable to tackle criminals and council services with Stasi powers
The complacent and abstainers also had to see how bad Labour is. It would not end until it ran its full course.
26. I don’t know whether there’s any mileage in that particular ‘….gate’ but looking at the youtube linked by Mike at 23 you can see where problems might arise.
The characters on the video look like the cast of ‘One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest’ and Palin like Nurse Ratched. I don’t suppose a VP swings too many votes but spending 3 months keeping that lot hidden from view might take more energy than McCain has to spare.
On topic - no, but it shows the risks of having journalists around you picking up every remark for two days - even if they report it sympatheticlaly and all in context, other media will pick out anything they fancy and run with it.
Interested in a query from Martin in last night’s thread - as someone who likes Blair’s oratory, was I have persuaded to change my mind by it? Was thiking about it while I sleepily rustled up the muesli (Guardian reader!) and I think the answer is no. I enjoy hearing a good speech but I’m more likely to be persuaded by a 50-page briefing document, and on specific issues where I disagreed with him (e.g. his obvious reluctance to ban hunting) he didn’t persuade me at all.
And yet - what Blair’s speeches did was persuade me that he’s likeable, coherent and a strategic thinker. His PLP briefings were masterpieces in persuading us that he knew what he was doing: “we’re at point A on this issue, the public is halfway with us at point B, the Tories are moving from C to D, and we need to coverge with the public on E, because it’s what’s needed for the issue and it leaves point D completely exposed”. Persuading the audience that you’re likeable and and have a coherent approach is probably as much as you can hope for from most speeches, and S&S’s comments on Clinton bear out that first point at least. Perhaps Obama’s strongest points in his speeches are partly a sense of mission but also his level-headed coherence - a very desirable atrtribute in a President.
I’m not a great speaker myself, but I can deliver a sense of civil and honest coherence which is enough at my level of politics - it’s certainly what got me the original selection in Broxtowe, where other contestants had much more passion and a much stronger local record, but I had a concrete plan for winning the seat.
40, I thought he agreed to give an interview?
Sorry for the repetition and various sleepy slips in that last post. More coffee needed.
About the Palin abuse of power thing, does anyone know:
1) How long is the current investigation likely to take?
2) How independent the committee investigating her is likely to be - now that she’s VP would they squish the thing for the good of the party?
The scandal itself seems like the sort of thing she could survive, but if she gets convicted of wrongdoing during the presidential campaign that could be a problem…
Economy worst in 60 years eh?
That means we’re back to the days of Stafford Cripps. Labour, as usual, reverts to incompetent type.
The worst for sixty years is over hyping just as he underplayed earlier.
So Darling coupled with Milliband following Camerons lead in over pretentious behaviour regarding Russia, leaves only Johnson as a safe pair of hands, with a back story to challenge.
Incidentally the video refers to the sacking of her ‘ex brother-in-law’. Does this mean she’s been divorced?
36 “I see the panic among the Obama botherers hasn’t waned overnight…”
Even mad Rogerdamus has come out of retirement.
@40:
You know, Nick, I think that’s the problem I have with Obama.
He’s a *magnificent* orator, and there’s no sense denying that, and his speech was great to watch. But I still find, after one of his speeches, there comes the inevitable sense of ennui as it becomes clear that’s all there is to the man.
Blair had depth (alas), Obama has nothing.
On Topic
I think A Darling is trying - belatedly- to wrest control of economic policy from the prior incumbent.
Remember 10p tax and VED - all Brown inventions. All Brown claims that the poor/average will not be affected. And all blamed on: Darling.
Then the economy..
I bet Darling went ballistic when he read in the Telegraph on 22nd August!:
“Gordon Brown has defied expert forecasts, the Bank of England and even his own Treasury to predict privately that the economy will start recovering within the next few months. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2602786/Gordon-Brown-expects-swift-economic-recovery-for-Britain.html
Obvious nonsense when the BOE’s Bean said on 26th August “Downturn will drag on”
I so I believe this is a deliberate policy by Darling to cut Gordon’s legs from underneath him on the economy.. And the swift and immediate corroboration by the Treasury that what Darling said is their view.. confirms it.
I suspect Bean’s comments on 26th August and Darlings on 29th are designed (deliberatley) to ensure Gordon is boxed out of economic judgements.
As said elsewhere, Brown is in denial about the economy … and therefore anything he does (or says) is going to be wrong.
Now he is stuffed. His successor is sayiing you have screwed it up. And if Brown fires Darling, I suspect the hopuse of cards called this Government will follow.
Even Ms Flint is weighing in on benefits:
“Labour has created a housing system that encourages people to claim benefits and avoid working in order to get a council home, the housing minister has said.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2645555/Claimants-working-the-system-to-get-council-houses-says-minister.html
The Cabinet is revolting and taking power away from Gordon…
morning all, I hope you have all enjoyed the Morus reports from America. If Obama doesn’t win then it just proves America is one big basket case, especially seeing the pretty fruitcake McCain has chosen as running mate.
Alistair Darling is just telling the truth. He is facing the same situation as Captain Smith on the Titanic. The impossible is happening and unlike Captain Smith, he has neither had any relevant experience nor any training in how to deal with it and frankly he cannot.
This sums up the Labour Government. While everything is rosy, they can just ride along on the crest of the public feelgood wave. As soon as things turn sour, they panic, have no answers and rely on the Tories to bale the country out.
We saw it with Jim Callaghan/Dennis Healey and here in Scotland we have had 50 years of it.
I love the idea of a waiter telling Darling to rethink ordering a second bottle of wine when he is out at dinner or fellow car owners giving him abuse about the cost of petrol when he goes into a petrol station.
He also knows that the Tories are going to turf him out of Edinburgh South West.
I can’t wait!
So are things worse than than the early seventies?
Sounds like Darling is over egging this…just in case things don’t pick up.
To say “people are pissed off” with us is pretty revealing stuff. Maybe he doesn’t expect to stay in his job much longer.
Roger@46: I think it means her sister’s been divorced.
@47:
There was an amusing closing-of-ranks last night by concerned and shouty Obama botherers. This looked like a continuation of that phenomenon.
If it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck…
No Nick????, Is that ALL you can say… and then blather on about public speaking and getting a message across. Has it passed you by that the economic situation is absolutely grim, that Gordons been dissembling, and that the electorate is not going to be just angry but seething.
50, I think he’s overegged this. We’re certainly not going to go through an easy patch, but the worst economic situation since 1948?
Normally I’d say he’s made things seem worse so that when/if they recover we’ll all marvel at how wonderful the Chancellor is. But the odds are that it’s the Conservatives who will be in power when a recovery occurs, and will gleefully cite the Labour Chancellor’s doom-laden forecast.
Anyway, as I said earlier, he’s made himself nigh on unsackable. Surely if he said this in office, out of it he’d just blast Gordon.
19. Yes, I think that’s exactly what’s happening - noone’s talking to each other. The most important people not talking are obviously Darling and Brown, which is of itself revealing. Darling feels free to give the interview without letting No10 know what he’s going to say (because I can’t believe No10 would have cleared it had he done so). Doing so not only suggests that he thinks he’s pretty close to unsackable (and I’d agree - he knows far too much for Gordon to allow him to go to the backbenches), or doesn’t care about being sacked (much less likely), but that he has no confidence in Brown’s latest relaunch either. That too is reasonable given the impact that previous ones have had.
That he’s gone as far as he has in downplaying prospects is to me a surprise. While things might look bad for the next few months, or even a year, to suggest that they could be worse than the mid-1970s, when there was 27% inflation, the early 1980s, when Britain finally got to grips with sorting out the problems of the ’70s, or the early ’90s, when there was a seven-quarter recession, sounds like scaremongering. Maybe he feels he needs to be so dramatic in order to grab some attention. Maybe he simply wants to get the political ground laid before what I think might be one of the more interesting Pre-budget announcements. If growth has slowed dramatically, and tax receipts with them, what will the budget deficit be this year? £55bn? £60bn? And that’s before the bad debts from Northern Rock are included. Those are unsustainably high figures. Is Darling looking to cut spending or increase taxes 18 months before a general election?
@50:
No, Easterross. Electing a man with all the substance of a small ball of gas is the action of a basket case country. Fortunately, Americans seem to be (at last) coming to their senses as they realise what kind of man he is, or rather isn’t.
24/28 - he’s not “telling the truth”. The statement is ridiculous and meaningless.
Question to Nick Palmer (MP and bar);
Personally I never thought 3rd world illegal immigrants would make a wealthy country wealthy as Labour
1iedsaid - but could they make a poor country wealthy?@58:
Okay, just for you, here is some truth:
THE UK ECONOMY IS FINE AND PUTS THE REST OF THE WORLD TO SHAME
GORDON IS THE MOST LOVED PRIME MINISTER EVER SEEN
LABOUR WILL WIN THE NEXT ELECTION BY A HUGE LANDSLIDE
ALASTAIR DARLING IS MENTALLY ILL
There. Happy now?
58. It’s not meaningless; it just doesn’t mean what it says.
45.Dez. Good point. I don’t believe the public support Georgia like the politicians seem to think they do. Miliband and Cameron have hitched their rope to the wrong wagon as usual and I’m sure this wont do Miliband’s chances any good at all. We need another PM to follow the American’s lead like we need a hole in the head! Johnson might be the man.
There has been much talk on here of Darling being fundamentally an honourable and decent chap; this speech imho goes some way to confirming and entrenching this belief.
And why not? On becoming CoE he inherited one disaster after another from Gordon Brown and yet stood by him, when the grinning freak set Darling up as the fall guy for the 10p fiasco and the NR collapse, he took it on the chin. Up till now his loyalty has been unwavering but with rumours of a cabinet reshuffle and possible sacking, this looks like pay back time to me.
3rd world illegal immigrants would make a poor country wealthy:
@62:
Rogerdamus in “point your anus at the Kremlin and shout ‘take me big boy’” shocker.
60 - ?
61- fair point.
Actually reading the interview it looks as though Darling has been completely twisted in his own nuance. He says that “global conditions are the worst for 60 years” (again, nonsense at this stage) - the implication presumably being that the UK economy must be being run very well since we are doing so much better than the 70s,80s,90s et al.
58.
It sure is how old is Darling was he born in 1948,and has he had a memory loss of past recessions.
If he has could he go back and compare and contrast, the submit the essay for marks.
@66:
We don’t allow shades of gray around these parts. Darling’s basic message was (a) we’re all totally fuxx0red, and (b) Gordon is a waste of meat and so far in denial it’d take a team of sherpas a month to retrieve him.
Neither of these statements seem controversial.
40. That’s almost entirely incoherent. What’s the point of all this rubbish about Blair and the letters A through E?
I find the US President market absolutely fantastic and would be quite happy with either candidate.
But the blah blah from the two Martin’s over the last few days demeans the site…..Would you two please not be “Coxall Day” HEEHEE as your friend from Watford might say!
56 spot on. what publıc servıces are Labour goıng to cut? or are they goıng to seal theır electoral fate by raısıng taxes?
@70:
Oi, I didn’t ask for there to be a sudden influx of touchy and worried Obama-botherers to toy with.
It’s just that every time somebody pokes you, y’all squeak in such an amusing way that it’s hard not to do it again. And again.
56
I also believe he is downplaying prospects - deliberately.
Why?
One possible answer:
1. to forestall a winfall tax - which would be a disaster for energy polocy - mainly nuclear power.. as the major tax would fall on EDF (amongts others) and Centrica - who are the key to investing in nuclear.
2. To allow a cut in Corporation Tax to (say) 25% to prevent an exodus of companies growing to a flood due to the f#cked up tax regime (thanks GB)
3. To force Labour MPs to accept cuts in spending programs.
Remember , Labour’s biggest enemies on th economy are the innumerates who live in the Cabinet and backbenches. Every LAbour Government ends up with an economic mess and highly unpopular and too late spending cuts. Darling is going down the same path but more quickly.
52. Thanks Edmund.
24. Woody. What was the ‘joint press conference’? I’ve been away.
71, there is much room for cutting the fat from public services by culling unnecessary civil servants.
However, this is difficult for Labour as it would entail admitting either they’ve unnecessarily increased public spending, or that they were cutting services.
Of course, they could just use their brains, cancel the ID card scheme and call that a ’saving’. Northern Rock’s another kettle of gold-plated fish though.
64 Pakistanis could solve the poverty in Haiti.
57 Martin, clearly you welcome the idea of a woman who supports the gun-totting society, is anti-gay, anti-abortion, denies Darwinism and is trying to have her brother-in-law sacked because he dared to not conform to her ideals of a married person is the right person to lead the free world. I happen to think Obama os a breath of fresh air and frankly he is better qualified to lead the free world than the B rated Hollywood actor who was hailed as the best US president for decades.
50 Morris Dancer, I am far from sure he is. The fundamental difference is that when our economy faced previous downturns, most people with debt also had savings and their debts were a modest imposition on their incomes. Now the bulk of the country have no savings, all their assets are in their houses which are vstly over priced, the typical borrower has a mortgage in the range 4-10 x salary not 2.5 x salary. Yesterday 2 of the big 6 energy providers announced 30%+ increases in prices. How can most people cope with that?
At the moment people are fraid to use the R word for recession, but how long before they start using the D word for depression.
Maybe it isn’t yet happening in the part of the country wher you live but all over Scotland here after all house prices are still rising, adverts are starting to appear in local papers inviting private landlords to consider leasing their properties to the local authorities for council housing. That can only mean they expect a huge spike in homelessness.
To hear “experts” predicting that unemployment which according to the Government’s dodgy measurement is around 1.6 million could increase by 25% in the next 3 months to be 2 million by Christmas is frankly astounding and given that January to March are generally the flatest months for most service and retail based businesses, after Christmas how much will it grow, to 2.5 million by June?
As we were all so obsessed by Glasgow East for the past few months, on Thursday morning I decided to wander through PArkhead Forge, one of the 2 major retail centres in the constituency. Since my last visit in June 9 retails units have closed, which given that there are around 50 units in the centre is a frightening statistic and a client told me that another 3 or so are on the point of closing.
@77:
Obama is ‘A breath of fresh air’? Yes, I suppose he is. A puff of cool gas, with no substance, form or extent. An ideal analogy, thanks.
That’s your problem with Palin, I guess. It’s not so much that you disagree with her, but that she stands for *anything at all*, which must be a difficult and upsetting concept for fans of cloud-of-gas-boy to deal with.
40 “… - it’s certainly what got me the original selection in Broxtowe, where other contestants had much more passion and a much stronger local record, but I had a concrete plan for winning the seat.”
Interesting. In a safe seat, the selection committee would not have been remotely interested in a “concrete plan for winning the seat”, and could have made the choice on other grounds.
Is their a correlation between safety of the seat and competence of the MP? Although I wouldn’t vote for NickP (becuase of his stance on Iraq), he is certainly more competent than average for the House of Commons. And, indeed, most of the f*ckwits in Labour seem to have very safe seats.
71 They should inform the BoE that the 2% inflation target is put aside in this downturn and the main priority is growth.
Therefore enabling cuts in intrest rates as in the USA.
65 ““point your anus at the Kremlin and shout ‘take me big boy’””
Can I think about it?
@81:
Why break the habit of a lifetime?
O/T My 7/4 tennis tip on Minar lost from having a 2 set lead yesterday. Thankfully I managed to lay off on betfair at 2-1, but apologies for those that didn’t. Today I am backing:
Fish to beat Blake @ 9/4 with coral.co.uk with a saver on Blake 3-2 @ 7/1 with sportingbet.com
Wawrinka to beat Cipolla -2.5 handicap @ 4/6 with stanjames.com
Murray to beat Melzer 3-2 in sets @ 10/1 with sportingbet.com
Fish is on fire at the moment and reached the final of New Haven last week. Blake on the other hand has looked sluggish following his great exploits at the Olympics. He was taken to five sets in round one by world 102 Donald Young. In round two Blake was one set apiece with Steve Darcis when he benefitted from his opponent’s retirement. Blake leads Fish 2-1 in head-to-heads, but on current form I’d make it evens the pair.
My second selection is I think the best value of the tournament so far (even though odds on). Stan James have Wawrinka at 4/6 to beat Cipolla with a paltry -2.5 handicap. Cipolla is the world’s 142 against Wawrinka who is ranked number 10. Wawinka is a fast court player, Cipolla favours clay. Cipolla has won 5 ATP matches all season, Wawrinka 35.
Wawrinka has a strong serve and will not be broken easily (3 times in 2 matches) and has yet to drop a set. Cipoolla is only winning aroud 60% of the points when his first serve is in and has been broken TWELVE times in his two matches at Flushing Meadows. I literally cannot see Wawrinka winning without beating the handicap and his best match price is 1/9. I’d possibly make the handicap 1/8.
Finally I’d also back Andy Murray to be taken to 5 sets by Jurgen Melzer. He doesn’t like lefthanded servers much and Melzer was faultless in his last round. Murray has the stomach to nick it but it could very well go all the way.
77 Wow the Obamaniacs are out of their tree.
Anyone would think they they are a sect - with US voting rights.
Roger on post 31 (8.19am) said “Miliband must be their best and only hope”. By post 62 (9.26am), he was sussgeting that Miliband has “hitched his rope to the wrong wagon” and “Johnson might be the man”.
If the Cabinet are as consistent as such a Labour supporter, we now know why they are in a mess!
Nick Palmer (MP, I’m an MP you know),
could XXXXX XXXXXXX solve poverty in XXXX!
Political correctness ban word test “Illegal Immgrants”
I can’t believe Roger actually thinks the British public support Russia’s stance in Georgia. An impressive level of projection and delusion. Most people are unfortunately apathetic, but if pushed they would say putin is clearly a dangerous fruitloop doing his best to recreate the cold war.
83. URGENT CORRECTION! The match handicap for Wawrinka was for sets and not games. What a stupid market. So it’s essentially 4/6 on a straight sets win. Not a bad price, but by no means the enormous value I thought it was.
It’s the ‘embarras des riches’ that the Labour Party are fortunate enough to have two outstanding prospects. When Cameron implodes in his own vanity will IDS be making a comeback?
Nick Palmer (I’m an MP you know),
could Illegal Immgrants solve poverty in XXXX!
49. Those Flint comments are also amazing. She has not only trashed the government’s record but also proposed making council house tenancies dependent on job-seeking. If nothing else, this Labour government has moved the politics of our country substantially to the right. The Thatcher or Major governments would have been pilloried for that policy, and for the workfare policy.
I don’t think opposition to Palin is merely sexism. The fact is that she has been governor for only two years, supported the high priest of paleo-conservatism Pat Buchanan in 2000 and from the look of things is just as corrupt as the people she replaced in Alaska. The fact that McCain had to change on ANWR to accomodate her is bizzare, vice presidential candidates change to fit in with the top of the ticket not the other way around.
I still think McCain is the better candidate and should win (not least because Obama is bad for many of the reasons Palin would be a disaster. However, this ’stunt’ desrves to backfire and backfire it will.
90
That’s a great joke.
Made me laugh a lot.
It is a joke,? Surely?
Note, I meant to say ‘I don’t think opposition to Palin is to do with sexism.’
88 The lefties generally love Russia for historic reasons.
At a push they say we need more evil, tyrant superpowers to balance democratic super powers.
90 “It’s the ‘embarras des riches’ that the Labour Party are fortunate enough to have two outstanding prospects”
best to put a smiley
at the end when you make a joke, Roger.
92
If I did not know better I would have said Darling and Flint and Purnell are hatching a plan to cut back benefits for those who refuse to work.. adn by cut I mean withdraw totally.
Nah.. I’m wrong.
Easterross, and others:
Palin’s unedited comments on creationism.
” In an interview Thursday, Palin said she meant only to say that discussion of alternative views should be allowed to arise in Alaska classrooms:
“I don’t think there should be a prohibition against debate if it comes up in class. It doesn’t have to be part of the curriculum.”
She added that, if elected, she would not push the state Board of Education to add such creation-based alternatives to the state’s required curriculum.
Members of the state school board, which sets minimum requirements, are appointed by the governor and confirmed by the Legislature.
“I won’t have religion as a litmus test, or anybody’s personal opinion on evolution or creationism,” Palin said.”
What’s the problem? Are you ‘brights’?
88. My guess-and certainly among the people I know-Bush is a far scarier fruitcake than Putin. And the hypocricy after the US’s invasions the last 8 years doesn’t bear thinking about.
A very frank piece from Darling but senior politicians often do these very personal interviews - it’s only unusual because it’s him doing it this time.
I sense he is rather irritated with people breathing down his neck and that may be his reason for speaking out.
Yes, the sub-prime crisis was a complete surprise and he describes it well. Nobody could have predicted how the dodgy US collaterised loans would threaten the world’s banking system.
Brown made a mistake in saying that the UK was particularly well placed to withstand the crisis. But Osborne and friendly journos like Oborne [wow, they even have similar names] are now saying that the UK’s situation has nothing to do with the international credit crunch at all, and that all the problems have been caused by Gordon “failing to save for a rainy day”.
If you repeat a lie frequently enough then people believe it. And because Labour’s rebuttal is so poor/non-existent at the moment it is letting the Tories get away with it.
#80
I assume you don’t gamble. Such logic could prove expensive.
We have the prospect of 5% CPI - and God know’s what RPI/X - and you think the BoE is serious about maintaining Rusty Brown’s 2% median rate? Your scenario would crush Sterling, import inflation and force a capital exodus!
I have to assume you are a Labour-supporter. That is the only intellectual excuse for such a nonsense!
We can use Tokyo Roger / Temnikov Roger’s broardcast to predict what will not happen.
It is very useful.
Nick Palmer (I’m an MP you know),
could Illegal Immgrants solve poverty in Bangladesh?
@99:
I’m a ‘bright’, but also I think that Palin’s about as right as a Creationist can be. Creationism and intelligent design have no place in science lessons, because they’re not science, but to say that it shouldn’t be discussed in schools if the issue arises is also unacceptable.
93. Opposition to Palin isn’t just sexism, but there is an element not only of that but also of disdain for the provincial. Looking down on her accent? That’s how people talk throughout the mid-west, Canada and Alaska. Only been in charge of a small town? Would that be a small town where people cling to their guns and religion? Well, yes, yes it would, as she’s also been criticised as a religious nut, despite having eminently moderate and sensible views.
On the sexism charge, how do you understand the term ‘fishwife’? That was bandied about yesterday. How about the idea that she should stay at home and look after her children? That one was masquerading as ’she has a sick child, shouldn’t she be looking after it’. Or how about the criticism of her as a beauty contestant? Everyone knows pretty women are stupid, right lads!!
Hmmm, so is this an outbreak of candour from Darling and New Labour?
Not really. I’m a fairly pessimistic observer on the economy, but to say we are facing the worst downturn for 60 years is a pretty extreme statement. Certainly a recession now looks very likely, but is it really going to be much worse than those in the mid-70s or early 80s and early 90s? There’s no particular reason to think so, at this stage.
This looks rather like a shift of tactics from the untenable ‘everything is fine’ approach which was attracting such ridicule. Now, Labour intend it seems to talk the economy down, emphasising the international nature of current problems. This will give them cover (they hope) for the bad news ahead, and perhaps allow them to claim some credit when Darling’s forecast economic apocalypse fails to materialise and we instead get an ‘ordinary recession’.
Palingate (Mike Smithson @ 23,29): does it matter? Not should it but does it? Presidents Clinton and Bush were elected and re-elected despite various skeletons (booze, sex, draft-dodging and shady business deals). Cameron has a 20-point poll lead here despite rumours about using drugs and vandalising Oxford eateries.
Americans, like us, elect politicians, not saints.
@106:
I was bandying about the term ‘fishwife’, but I was doing it as a way to wind up the Obama-botherers. I don’t believe that Palin’s a fishwife at all, but I realise that most of the botherers thought the description apt.
It is best not to get involved in arguments with the Obamaniacs. They cannot be reasoned with. Only time shuts them up.
Etc etc etc. Percy percy. I can see from your username that you like repetition but for the sake of your army of devoted readers can’t you try changing your inane question occasionally?
102 I don`t know who you support but I can guess.
However at least one person on the BoE believes they should be cutting intrest rates and they have`nt acted quickly enough.
I happen to agree with him.
106 — most Republican voters live in small towns so urban Democrat sneers that Palin was mayor of a small town really miss the point and are probably counter-productive.
31 “As for Alistair Darling …….Labour are disintegrating in front of our eyes. Miliband has to be their only and best hope and must be odds on to be PM before Xmas.” - Rogerdamus
On the verge of tears, David Milliband is spotted cancelling the phone lines….
111 Tokyo Roger, I value your assessment. Your skills, loyalties and judgments are well established.
113. It’s not just Republicans who live in small towns!
105. I meant ‘bright’ to mean aggressive, evangelical atheist in the ilk of the Pope of scientism Dawkins himself. Clearly you’re not one of those!
Another thread from Mike where the answer is “yes”? What is the world coming to…
Perhaps the Royal Navy could offer to rename one of their subs “The Gordon Brown” - because they both go from being launched to being underwater in a matter of moments…
And they are both likely to go nuclear if attacked.
As the guy who told PB to lay on Palin over a week ago, and resident soothsayer. (and one who profited to the tune of £600), I noe forcast the following:
A McCain win in November 2008
A Brown resignation before December 2008
This article below is more than interesting:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/08/30/do3007.xml
I do hope the people are not so enraged that they start lynching Labour ministers and MPs from lamp posts. If that starts happening, things will be very bad indeed.
I read somewhere that an immigrant who killed his neighbour got 8yrs (not including reductions for current early release schemes).
If lynching of Labour MPs does occur, I do hope the punishment is more severe so deter such heinous acts.
100 So your argument is basically that because Bush invaded Iraq (due to left wing neo-con interventionist dogma) then putin should have a free hand in attacking his neighbours having already crushed internal dissent through murder and intimidation. Do you really believe this?
I now; sorry
More block wardens from the Bunker party:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2648384/Environmental-volunteers-will-be-encouraged-to-spy-on-their-neighbours.html
77. Ronald Reagan, despite his dodgy acting past, was probably one of the most experienced candidates for the Presidency in the last half century.
He had been Governor of California for eight years, and challenged for the Republican Presidential nomination three times before winning in 1980. He had his fair share of political experience.
119 Tsk,tsk. Unfortunately modern lamposts are too high to string anyone up; there are plenty of trees around though.
118 All those that blather on about Nick palmer being a gentleman or a nice guy etc should remember that actually he is an authoritarian that has happily presided over the erosion of this countries freedoms.
112 Dez “at least one person on the BoE believes they should be cutting intrest rates ..”
Blanchflower ( and it is he who you quote) always wants to cut rates, always has, and sees this as the answer to all ills. So his statement that he ‘might’ call for a cut at the next meeting either suggests he has forgotten his own record ( its in the minutes) or he is for the first time unsure as to whether a cut is appropriate.
A burst of common sense like that from him would be welcome.
124 Yes. Lynching Labour MPs would just be so…so wrong!
49/92 - Flint’s comments don’t really make sense, do they? It’s the housing benefit system that is the disincentive to work, rather than council houses per se. After all, once you’ve got a council house it can’t be taken away. And paying housing benefit for private accommodation is a far greater disincentive than in council houses (once you’ve got the house) because council rents are lower so you have more to lose by finding work.
Darling wakes up and smells the coffee?
Ten years of Blair and Brown following a Conservative economic programme of pumping up both the state and the private sector on falsely-based credit, (not THAT different to Ronald Reagan) and supported almost to every jot and tittle (what alternatives have they ever seriously proposed?) by David Cameron and his predeccessors. Ten years of Conservative indifference to global events creeping up on this country and our ‘allies’ like a Tsunami from the deep? What else were we to expect?
But if the only alternative is to be the ‘Blair with less hair’ - smooth, suave and completely lacking in substance; the man who has a bucket and spade holiday for the cameras then swans off to the millionaire yacht for the real thing, then heaven help us all.
113. In many ways, a lot of Americans may find it refreshing that she *has* come from this small-town, mayoral background. McCain needed to find someone *in-tune* with Middle Americans and he’s done that. He now needs to build a campaign presenting himself and Palin as more in-tune and realistic, competant people than the Democrats. This could strike a chord on the campaign trail.
At the end of the day, all this discussion about Palin simply demonstrates that selecting her was risky, but generated more high-profile comment and interest than the McCain camp has ever had. He needed that in order to avoid falling into the ‘inevitable loser’ hole. He needed people to talk about his campaign.
She could go either way; I think she’s a good choice (especially considering the others on offer for McCain), others may disagree. At the end of the day, though, we’ll have to see how she plays in the debates and the campaign proper before we’ll know how good a choice she’s been.
Govt should cut interest rates and raise taxes.
Tax rises obviously less preferable than cutting unnecessary spending but that’s not going to happen, at least in the short term.
112. Who appointed Blanchflower to the MPC anyway? Does an empirical study of ‘Money, Sex and Happiness’ qualify you to set interest rates?
http://www.dartmouth.edu/~blnchflr/papers/sentScanJEsexmoneyhappinessjune2003.pdf
101
Nice one Emmitrude. Labour has been lying to the electorate for years, re announcing the same money over and over again, dissembling has reached such a pitch, that at last someone had to tell the truth.
Gordo not saving for a rainy day is absolutely fair comment. Gordon is more akin to Viv Nicholson, and now the chickens are coming home to roost, and its the voters who are feeling the pain..
48.
Blair had depth (alas), Obama has nothing.”"
Eh Martin?
There was more real policy in Obama’s one speech than Blair gave us in nine years. Whether he can deliver it is another thing!
Blair narrowly avoided the only ‘depth’ he deserved by jumping ship to avoid being ‘deep sixed’. The gross trite superficiality of Blair we thought was insurpassable. But wait! Cometh the Chameleon, cometh the day!
120. That is not my argument. That is just my reason for thinking that the British public can sense the reek of hypocricy and they don’t like it. Listen to any of the phone in programs or the audience participation programs like ‘Any Questions’ and that’s what you’ll hear. Remember the invasion of Lebanon? What did Bush/Blair have to say?
With regard to the main issue I suspect it’s far more nuanced than our ‘goody baddy’ mentality can cope with.
125 The authoritarianism was to pin the British people down while “irreversible” “progressive” changes were implemented.
It is a good thing it is reversible.
Easterross
Houses round Ayr: prices stable; lots at fixed price but not moving. Ayr town centre looks like tumbleweed is due to arrive any day.
The recent Labour disorder has led me to put some money on Harriet as the next PM - moving from a strong belief that Brown would be there to the GE. She needs to be in the Tory sights at the conference.
Listened very carefully to Palin after the words here; found her voice not unpleasant and her manner natural - much more so than RHC. An ‘austerity’ RNC conference might be a winner and could happen during a hurricane.
When judging Brown’s response to the economic mess we need to remember the spin at the beginning of the summer when the false choice set was tax rises or more borrowing to ’stimulate the economy’.
Borrowing was presented as preferable as it did not add to the individual tax burden.
Spending cuts were not mentioned.
So we should expect more borrowing and less taxes ‘ to help the worst off ‘ suffering from Brown’s ten years as Chancellor.
That of itself is likely to hold or even put up interest rates as it would be inflationary both directly and indirectly. The pound would stay weak or become weaker and the imported inflation we are already seeing will be worse.
Interestingly with a strong currency German CPI declined last month, unemployment decreased and even Italian CPI was only 0.1%. Overall Eurozoe CPI fell and signs are it is about to decline sharply.
Here it will keep rising. 5%, 6%? Where will it stop if Brown splurges money to bribe the electorate?
After 11 years of doing exactly what he is told, Doctor Nick Palmer has risen to the heady heights of being Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Minister of State for Energy, Malcolm Wicks, in the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform.
In our real world terms, this equates to being elevated to the role of assistant milk monitor.
If, as Gwynfa says @ 79, “he is certainly more competent than average for the House of Commons”, then why is a computer expert with 11 years of loyal service still languishing on the back benches?
Cannon fodder.
“The Alliance party would attend talks about the stand-off between the DUP and Sinn Fein over the devolution of justice, David Ford has said.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7589290.stm