Would Gordon walk away from certain election defeat?
September 3rd, 2008I was very struck by this post by ChrisD overnight.
The only way I ever saw Gordon Brown still leading the Labour party through a GE, was if there was a good to certain chance they would win. Even if he was not openly challenged or quietly pushed, I have never bought the into the idea that he would therefore cling on till the bitter end to lead his troops into an absolutely certain defeat in 2010 like Major did back in 97′. Those in the Labour party who think that Brown is a John Major type politician in that respect, are going to be left feeling sorely disappointed and let down.
I seriously could see him walking away and leaving the whole government and his *beloved* Labour party up the creek without a paddle.. There seems to be an almost blind faith within the party that Brown is there until the GE if they decide not to oust him, in much the same as that conviction that he would be a great PM despite being totally untried in a contest to prove it. I am with Daniel Finkelstein’s friend on this. The Macavity theory
Mike Smithson
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I honestly believe GB still feels he IS a great PM; he no doubt thnks that “events” and “plotters” have conspired against him, instead of his own weak leadership, poor vision and execution (as well as terrible PR skills).
Any incumbent PM would want to stay on as long as possible in the hope that things will get better. Even the m
Since Gordon Brown’s half-baked and unfunded plan to revive the housing market has been greeted with universal derision, perhaps he will simply be laughed out of office.
GB is not a leader - there are very few natural leaders in any society = most people are happy to be followers if the leadership is good and allows the followers freedom in action and thought within the boundaries accepted by that society.
Good leaders also offer the prospect of security, happiness and contentment without undue stress - they also enable a society to pull together without petty jealousy and engender an esprit de corps.
GB reminds me of a small boy who has struggled to get hold of the ball and wants to keep it to himself to play with and will resist all attempts to take it from him.
Often the result is that the rest will either overcome him by force or will leave him on his own whilst they find and play with a new ball.
Problems occur when GB’s ball is punctured - does he try to mend it (most likely unsuccessfully) or throw it away in disgust and burst into tears and rush to the comfort of mummy’s apron strings - which in reality he has never left.
An outbreak of collective madness was reported in 2007 in Great Britain as the Parliamentry Labour Party endorsed Gordon Brown as leader and Prime Minister.
This disease seems to have resulted in the complete loss of feeling in the spine, memory loss, selective amnesia, deficent critical facilities resulting in paralysis and certain death by May 2010.
To walk away means awareness of oneself as a failure.
Since when has Gorodn publicly admitted failure?
I suppose there is always a first time…but it would seal his record as a total and abject failure and he would end up derided and despised by his own party.
Would his price accept that? Surely he’d have a nervous breakdown first.
price = pride
Can somebody please explain the SNP’s local income tax policy? With no room for local variation, how are they intending to allocate the funds to councils? Are they taking current spending as a base, thereby penalising those councils who are currently more efficient, or have taken active policy decisions to pursue lower taxation agendas, at the expense of “luxury” services (eg. local theatres, extent of sports facilities etc)? Or will the spending be completely independent of the current situation, which leaves open the possibility of some councils getting millions of pounds which they can’t spend, or others having to make savage cuts?
I don’t think Brown would simply “do a Keegan” and walk away, leaving Parliament in confusion.
But I can easily see the “health” card being played as the excuse, in order to salvage something of his personal reputation for posterity.
I think he’ll try to hang on always in the belief that things will get better in the polls, and always with the effect that they will get worse. Wonder what the price on LDs coming 2nd is?!
I cannot imagine someone who has schemed for a decade to get into No 10 ( bearing in mind how he did it) giving it all up when defeat looms at the General Election. But somehow what ChrisD posted makes sense.Gordo doesnt do courage.
He would never give it up willingly, and if he is not ousted, the “ill health” scenario is the only way Gordo could escape the responsibility of what he has engineered, and the wrath of the electorate.
Very good early posts on this thread, which hit the nail on the head: Gordon has to see himself as part of the problem before he will go. I don’t think that’s at all likely before 2010.
If a leader does choose to go ‘before their time’, the minimum they usually want is to pass the baton on to someone who they believe will follow in the same style (or at least, what they believe to be the positive aspects of it). There’s no way Brown can fix that - he’s in such a weak position that it’s very difficult for him to carry out a reshuffle, never mind persude / bully the candidates and electorate in an election to succeed him to do as he wants.
So I reach the opposite conclusion to ChrisD for similar reasons: Brown will not quit because to do so would involve making an active decision as well as not only an admission of failure but a recognition that someone else could do better - much easier to put it off and hope something turns up.
Even if he doesn’t walk away, it is still very possible he could get the push, either by senior members of the cabinet acting together or by the PLP. The most likely catalyst is next June’s elections, which is immediately before the last realistic window for a leadership election, and will be the last (and largest) test of public opinion before the general election.
I saw Gordon on TV last night and thought he looked sick. Did anyone else notice? It could of course be a mild summer flu but if it’s the job that’s laying him this low then for his own sake he should give it up.
3. “Since Gordon Brown’s half-baked and unfunded plan to revive the housing market has been greeted with universal derision”
…..which it hasn’t other than on here and I doubt he reads this.
ChrisD may well be spot on here. She has a good knowledge of Scottish politics, and her ‘Macavity Theory’ insight is worth serious consideration.
It is my contention that it is utterly impossible to understand The Right Honourable Dr Gordon Brown MP without a comprehensive grasp of his natural milieu: the Scottish Labour Party.
If you are betting in any markets whose outcome depends on the actions and thoughts of Gordon Brown (and that is most of the betting markets we discuss) then you must do your background research on Brown. Read some of the biographies, especially Tom Bower’s. It is truly frightening: Brown has never had a ‘proper job’. His entire life is deeply soaked in the mire of Scottish Labour tribal politics, eg. he detests (and I really mean detests) the Conservative Party with a vengeance.
Brown has no hinterland. When his political career collapses in flames around him, Brown the person will collapse too. No ‘elder statesman’ he. Kinnock and Blair are stiff bouncing around making pricks of themselves, but I suspect that we will not hear much of Brown after he goes. The loss of office will cripple him even more than it crippled Thatcher, and at least she had the comfort of an astonishing history-making career behind her. Brown is a world record breaking failure.
It’s happened before, Brown ducking out of contests he doubted he’d win. The 1978 selection for the Hamilton by-election, the 1992 leadership contest (it was apparently Brown’s decision not to stand that year which started the rumours about his personal life), and then the 1994 leadership contest.
13. Brown has carried out EU policy to raise Stamp Duty on House Transfers, burden the market with HIPS and energy assessments, and grind it down until it is no longer the primary reason why Britain could never join the Euro.
Like farming, like fishing, like our financial industry, the UK housing market is on the EU’s hit list.
Brown has only been carrying out his ‘instructions’ as he told us in his speech post Crewe and Nantwich. The EU desires as big a housing bust in Britain as it possible to engineer, as that, they hope, will shatter the belief in bricks and mortar.
It won’t. Once the slump is over, and interest rates are down, the market will recover. The EU will find another Brown-like stooge to do their bidding, and keep loading burdens onto the market to try to stop its vitality.
Brown is only the latest, and will not be the last. If Brown walks, another EU-puppet emerges.
13
I doubt this site is ignored by No 10. Nick Palmer for a start will be reporting back on some of what what is said (the general mood). Roger says there is no universal derision. I suggest Roger reads the headlines and leaders that I am just hearing read out on R4 just now. They are hardly positive and no doubt reflect the views of the majority.
I think he is like a rabbit caught in the headlights. He is panic stricken and pride does not come into it anymore. He is screaming for help yet the words won’t come out and he is no longer connecting with reality or anybody. Look at the number of advisors he has, top class people, and as far as one can see he just scampers amongst them, does not trust them, does not know where to cherry-pick. I cannot feel sorry for him for the way he has behaved in his plotting past, he never once has thought of the nation only his own ambition. As it is, in my car I would run over him and put him out of his misery.
“His entire life is deeply soaked in the mire of Scottish Labour tribal politics, eg. he detests (and I really mean detests) the Conservative Party with a vengeance”
This doesn’t make him weird. I know many people who-as a result of Thatcher-feel the same and none are mired in tribal Scottish politics.
7 - Isn’t this the system in the Republic of Ireland?
12. Roger
Look at this photo of Brown:
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/Brickbats-for-Brown39s-stamp-duty.4451381.jp
He looks so ill that at first I did not realise it was him.
21. I don’t think he looks that bad in the photo, considering the angle it’s taken from. Remember that he is blind in his left eye, which must have some effect on the features of that side of his face.
Re 19. I wonder whether in we will get the hatred of Labour on the same scale as the hatred of the Tories that you talk about…
The party appears to be finished both as an intellectual and moral force and it could take decades to repair the damage.
13. The only way to revive the housing market is to reduce interest rates but the Gov. can’t because they bottled that decision years ago. Even if they could influence the rate cut they can’t because of the rampant inflation. No more boom and bust. Indeed it will be bust and insolvency!
23. Unlikely. The Labour Party hasn’t taken on - and defeated - vested interests like the Tory Party of the 1980s did, so hasn’t built up enemies in the same way. Derision rather than hatred is the likeliest negative feeling towards it.
22 21
Gordon looks fine to me. He’s just had a holiday.
Whatever you may think, he appears to be strong and healthy.
And to survive since January being derided and rejected by the electorate requires some inner toughness - coupled with a refusal to accept anything is his fault.
26. I hope your not a Doctor.
25. On reflection, that sounds a bit one-sided, as if Thatcher’s getting to grips with union power etc. was the only factor behind the hatred of the Tory Party by some.
Labour hasn’t undertaken the kind of economic and social reform that the Thatcher government did, breaking with the 1945 political settlement, which was probably a bigger part in the strength of feeling felt by those who either lost out by it or felt betrayed in some way.
23. Mike Smithson - “The party appears to be finished both as an intellectual and moral force and it could take decades to repair the damage.”
I agree. Certainly in Scotland it would appear that among the vast majority of the electorate (and by “the electorate” I mean the people who actually vote, not people in general) the Labour Party has already gone beyond the point of no return.
“Finished as an intellectual and moral force” - totally over the top.
There is clearly tons of intellectual activity in the Labour movement. If anything there is too much intellectual activity and not enough translation into practical street politics. We get document after document after document. Look at the conference fringe for the scope of what is going on. What Labour lacks is focus and a bit of a mission.
As for a moral force, still think Labour has as much of a claim to that as the other two parties. One party untested by govt the other has it’s own moral questions to answer.
Just as worldwide events ie “credit crunch”,higher oil prices,and higher interest rates have added to Gord’s unpopularity so the reverse will soon be true.
I am no supporter of Gord but as world oil prices head back down towards $100 a barrel and interest rates will fall later this year there exists a last chance for NuLabour to claw back some points in the opinion polls.
My proviso is that a new Chancellor needs to be in place to rid the economy of the present uncertain situation.
29
I think it’ll be a geographical picture. As Stuart says, Large areas of Scotland will be lost.In England Labour still a force in metropolitan areas, but in non metropolitan England I suspect it will be a bloodbath. In Wales Labour will no longer be the force they were, and N Ireland will be a desert for all the major parties
23. Unbelievable post. You genuinely believe the Lib Dems are now more relevant than Labour, don’t you.
23, 24. Bollox. We ALREADY have hatred of the Labour party equivalent to hatred of the Tories. It may not seem that way but that’s because of several factors.
a) hatred of the Tories was over-stated in the first place. Everyone was meant to loathe them by 1992, remember? After a decade of lethal Thatcherism? Yet, er, somehow they got back into power.
b) by 1997 yes they were loathed by many, but our apocalyptic FPTP political system made the “hatred” seem worse - the Tory vote didn’t collapse, just melted, and the Labour vote wasn’t as high as Major’s in 92!
c) Tory haters circa 1990-1997 tended to come from the most voluble parts of society: the media, the chattering halfwits, us, comedians and celebs, writers and journalists, filmmakers and musicians. The cacophony generated by this minority made it seem that everyone on God’s earth, probably including God himself, hated the Tories with a vengeance. Not so, as the votes showed.
d) The people who HATE Labour now are sizeable but scattered minorities - eurosceptics are one. Working class white people affected by immigrants another. Scots are a third. Foxhunters and rural types ditto. These people simply can’t create the volume of noise compared to the punditocracy, and the vocal middle classes have yet to really suffer under Labour, so it seems that Labour isn’t quite as hated. Yet.
But they are. Go and speak to some white people in a poor part of London heavily affected by recent immigration. They LOATHE the Labour party. Why else would they vote in their droves for idiots like the BNP? Its a cry of pain.
Likewise hunters, eurosceptics, etc.
And look at the polls. Gordon Brown is the most unpopular British leader since of the Aethelred the Unready boiled a puppy on Breakfast TV.
If you think Labour aren’t hated you are deluded. They are. Just wait for the next elections. And the property crash has YET to really kick in.
29. if Labour are finished in Scotland as an intellectual and moral force what would you say about the Conservatives who aren’t even benefiting from this absence?
35. Tories don’t need a single scottish seat to form a majority gov!
Look out David Cameron
Boris Johnson has taken another giant stride along his path towards the leadership of his party and, one day perhaps, the keys to Number Ten.
The Tories’ blond bombshell has been named Politician of the Year in GQ magazine’s annual awards - following in the footsteps of his glorious leader (Call me Dave) who was similarly honoured last year.
The famously crumpled and dishevelled Boris was presented with his award by TV style gurus Trinny and Susannah.
You couldn’t make it up.
34. An opening for a new party then. ‘The Eurosceptic Hunters’ That’ll have Gordon quaking in his boots.
37 Shouldn’t you have accredited Boulton and Co from whom this post has been pasted word for word
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:e0248a84-4040-40eb-bd3a-d011c42ec839
30. Save it for some retard who might believe you.
Your illegal war led to the deaths of half a million people. A war for which you have yet to apologise, let alone atone.
And STILL you people in Labour deny us an inquiry.
Labour aren’t just finished as a moral force, you are RUINED. People may not care about the ins and outs of foreign policy, but they can see when something is rotten from the head down.
“Hand on heart the polls had nothing to do with my decision to call off the election”.
That’s you that is. That’s your leader. That’s everything you stand for. Lies. Big lies, small lies, little lies, massive lies. LIES.
New Labour are the stinking corpse of social democracy. Someone call the undertaker.
Support for Labour in tade union Unite has halved.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1051978/Support-Labour-halved-unions-members.html
35. Roger
I’ve said it once, and I’ll be saying it again: IMHO I think it entirely possible that the Scottish Tories will pip Labour for 2nd spot at the Euros next June. That will shake the very foundations of Scottish politics.
I wonder if, just as it serves to prevent Opposition leaders becoming complacent, the 1992 precedent might give Brown a glimmer of hope.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s doomed, but he might look back and think “If Major can do it, so can I.”
42. really? I wasn’t expecting that.
Brown doesn’t like elections and added to that we had the news yesterday,that private polling by the UNITE union showed that only 35% of their members would vote Labour.
So someone that doesn’t like elections, who may well suffer the most humiliating election defeat ever,will have run a mile by election time.
One of the many things we know Brown doesn’t do is courage.
31 The benefit to the UK economy of the fallback in oil prices from $140 to $109 a barrel has been impeded by the simultaneous fall in the pound from $2.03 to $1.79 in that same period. Unleaded was still costing me £1.15 a litre with BP yesterday.
30 AND you ARE finished as an intellectual force, too. Mike Smithson is quite right, even if he is a Lib Dem.
I noticed this same intellectual bankruptcy just yesterday - no kidding.
I always like to read the Guardian - even out here in Bangkok - cause I find it stimulating to see what the idiot lefties are thinking: I like to start the day with a caffeine shot of outrage.
But normally within the PC piffle and mediocre-lefty-think, which gets me nicely riled, there is usually some interesting stuff, too: striking new opinions, a stimulating concept, a radical lefty perspective which, though I might disagree with it, at least has force and passion.
Yesterday’s Guardian, for the first time in my memory, contained not one single interesting idea or challenging notion, not one single witty insight or refreshing new take.
It was the newspaper of a vanquished movement. The manifesto of a party that doesn’t know what it believes any more, if anything. It was the in-house journal of a government that has no real faith in its own future or value.
Even the Monnbiot stuff about global warming felt kind of half-hearted, like they were going through the motions, after one of the the dullest and cloudiest Augusts in recorded UK history.
Yesterday’s Guardian was a living embodiment of your ideological vacuity. You ARE finished. You’re toasted and burnt. The fire went out ages ago, and now, even the smoke is drifting away, on the chill Autumn wind.
It’s over.
Next June’s Euro elections will be a bloodbath for Labour. I can see no way that Brown will be able to tough it out after those results. Next summer is the absolute backstop for his involvement in UK politics. But by then, he will have sealed the fate of his Party for a generation.
Even Gabble seems to have given upon the ghost with Labour these days…. No cheerleaders; nothing left to cheer. Only the dying refrain of “B-b-b-but the Tories eat babies!!” fades on the wind….
And then Labour was gone.
Brown will have to be dragged from Downing Street - I can see no other way of it happening. If he were a better actor, we might believe in some of the words that come out of his mouth - but almost every consonant and vowel seems to be twisted in some way to reflect a skewed world view.
We have consumer confidence at a 4 year low, unemployment at a 16 year high and the OECD say that we are effectively already in recession and in a worse position than any other leading economy. Will Brown concede any of that? No - he will trot out his lines about ‘tough times’, ‘global pressures’ and ‘helping decent families’ - which he clearly cannot believe.
(BTW - shouldn’t we, as a nation, be helping all members of society not just ‘decent families’? Aren’t we all entitled to the attentions of our government?)
35,42 I wouldn’t be surprised either. Anyway the Conservatives are just letting the Tartan Tories (SNP) do the dirty work before they come back and become the largest party in Scotland.
On the subject of Gordon and would he walk away from defeat at an Election, I cannot disagree with ChrisD as that could be very dangerous to my health and well-being.
If Nicol Stephen can walk away from being Lib-Dem leader in Scotland with barely a murmur stating he wants to spend more time with his family, why wouldn’t we believe Gordon when he says this.
37. Boris is going well. He is good with words, and unusually for a politician he’s good with money. Britain needs to rebuild its financial credibility. He’d be the ideal candidate.
Firstly, and most importantly, thanks for Henry’s excellent tennis tip. Muller beat Davydenko in 4 sets. I was actually (and very unusually) cut down by SPIN. Anybody betting against Davydenko when he is the jolly, is suspect…
In the past, MS has commented on how well the FPTP system works, in terms of the British people picking the ‘right’ man as PM. There is some truth in that.
The problem is the size of the majority. In retrospect, a small majority in 2005 would have meant that this govt could not have limped on until 2010. And the current shambles could mean that tories would lead the socialist party by 250 seats after the next GE.
There is much enthusiasm for getting rid of this incompetent and damaging govt. But you don’t have to be a rabid lefty to wonder whether DC having a huge majority, and thus limitless and unalloyed power, is only good. In the future, some will look back at the GEs in 2005 and 2010 think that an element of PR may not be so silly after all.
49. I miss Gabble…
The Labour Party reminds me of an advert some years back where people were perpetually pushing a heavy rock up a series of inclines without getting anywhere. The mood music was funereal, the clothing was tattered, the environment miserable and the participants were wandering around like zombies.
“Never overestimate the Lib Dems.” Tony Blair, Labour conference September 2005.
There are many reasons why the Labour party will survive.
The Labour Party still attracts men of ambition and talent. The LibDems have a few – Laws, perhaps Huhne.
Labour still has the backing of the Trade Unions and don’t underestimate the funding and resources which that provides.
The Labour Party is still seen as the party for the underdog and that gives them a powerful brand in the political market place.
The LibDems are largely untested in office and where they have been – Scotland and Wales – their electoral fortunes plummet.
No the Labour Party will recover post Brown.
As we’re having a Scottish day …….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1n-f-Zusaw&feature=related
One day after the Sept Brown re-launch can we say it has failed already?
I agree with the article. Brown does lack the courage to fight to the bitter end .
Roger is probably right that Brown is ill. Heart disease is my guess based on the ear crease.
It is highly unlikely that Labour will disappear completely at the next election but the direction they take will be coloured by who is left in the parliamentary party. Given the scale of the losses they can expect, it will be interesting to watch the fight for the leadership.
New Labour is too tainted as a brand for any standard-bearer to be considered electable.
Old Labour will certainly mount a bid - but they are split into many splinter groups and haven’t made themselves terribly popular in recent years
A coherent new vision for Labour has yet to be outlined (which is very often the way for political parties after 3 terms in office) and until that emerges, I cannot see a massive revival for them.
Parties need time away from power in order to regroup and rethink. It would seem that it has ever been thus.
56 “The Labour Party still attracts men of ambition and talent.”
Who? If the apotheosis of such ambition and talent is the current Cabinet, then they have been attracting a pretty low grade of talent for some years now. And who in their right minds, coming into politics today, would choose life as a rising star in the Labour Party? You could be collecting your pension - and still not have got anywhere near the levers of power.
23. Labour has never been an intellectual force. As a moral force, it has been in decay since the 1960s when it was taken over by middle class armchair revolutionaries.
And the hijacking of the party by the ugly, yobbish clique of Campbell-Whelan-Draper-Balls types in the 1990s has arguably created the most amoral and nastiest political party we have seen in modern British history. The lasting feeling the public will have toward this party is not so much hatred, as contempt.
56 Fernando “Labour still has the backing of the Trade Unions and don’t underestimate the funding and resources which that provides.”
Yes at the moment but a new Conservative Govt will bring in a £50k limit and then Labour will have its funding reduced to something that the Lib Dems can compete with.
46 it went 1p a penny at my local garage yesterday!
61. If you were around when Thatcher and her clique were in office I can only think you’re being ironic.
56
The financial backing of the Trade Unions? Who depend on a Government subsidy? Guess where that is going.
30
“There is clearly tons of intellectual activity in the Labour movement”
Agreed. But do not mistake activity for meaningful thought. Most of it is written by people with no idea of economics and no concept of the thinking through of the consequences. There is no intellectual rigor or depth..
31
Yes oil prices will fall in $ terms. Yes food prices will fall in euros.
But the UK economy is going into a period of recession and nil or weak growth. The pound will fall. So the sterling benefits of lower world prices will be muted. And more importantly unemployment will rise.
And Government borrowing will double to nearly £100Billion…
All those vaunted and worthy poverty programs are going to go into reverse (as they are unfundable at higher levels) and the recipients are going to be very upset at broken promises. As many of them are unlikely to vote, however, it means that not much will happen electorally - but Labour’s core will vote less.
Labour needs an injection of young blood with brains , vigour ideas and more than a nodding understanding of economics. After the next GE it is unlikely to have many MPs with any of those characteristics.
64.Thatch had to lance a few boils for the good of the country - and Mr Scargill was a particularly unpleasant boil who was looking after a small cabal of workers who were dragging the country down.
Brownism is dragging the whole country down - including the lazy and feckless whch his “borrow to bribe” policies are aimed at.
64. No irony needed Roger - this lot are infinitely less pleasant than the Thatcherites. It’s going to be a long electoral exile…
60
A truly awful reflection on the judgement and lemming like behaviour of Labour MP’s, that they allowed someone who was known to be a bully,with poor interpersonal,presentational and communication skills to be elected unoppossed.
62 TC, lots of money goes to the TUs for political purposes. Somehow or other, whatever the future limits imposed (if it ever hasppens) I’m sure a way will be found to route that legally to the Labour Party. They can’t be that lacking in ingenuity.
64. Go back to 1969/70 and 1978/79, if you were around at that time, and compare the state of the Labour Party / Government with then. I am no political historian, only a hard pressed taxpayer, but from my perspective this lot have got themselves into a bigger mess overall than then.
48-Wasn’t the 2004 Euro score risible in itself?
With Labour then, say at the mid 30s in the polls they got mid 20s. “Do the math.” True, the Tories got high 20s or so, but add most of UKIP (what happened to them?) and they could be on nearly 40% before we adjust for polls. It is not inconceivable for the LDs to top Labour. In fact, every new relaunch (life expectancy less than a house fly’s) and every day this sorry, nay sickly, crowd carry on makes that more likely.
65. I think the big problem is that Labour no longer stands for very much. As such, it will only attract careerists at propitious points in the electoral cycles, not people who are committed to achieving particular social goals.
All political parties have this problem to an extent, but it’s particularly acute for Labour which has dumped all its historical ideals - or seen them rendered irrelevant by economic and social change - and has instead emphasised its ‘managerial’ competence. A rather laughable concept, today.
60 Marquee Mark, i was really trying to compare Labour and the Libdems. Like them or not, the people in the PLP look more substantial that the rag bag of glorified councillors and isolated men of talent in the Libdems.
61. No, I disagree. Labour HAVE been a moral force for good AND an intellectual force for good - in the past.
The NHS was a noble creation. So was the Open University. Those are just two examples. We can argue about who specifically came up with these ideas, whether the conception was shared by different movements - but nonetheless they happened under Labour governments.
There are several other cases - some equal rights legislation, Freedom of Information, etc.
But now? Now there is nothing. They are a sad, hollowed out husk. Their intellectual impotence was first revealed in their initial years in office - they just stuck to Tory party spending plans;then, when they thought they could get away with it, they went on a stupid, obscene and juvenile spending spree. Which has nearly bankrupted the country.
Their moral nullity was first shown by Iraq, and their treachery on Europe, and cash for coronets; it has now been confirmed by their non-election of a leader who blatantly and openly lies to the British people EVEN WHEN HE DOESN’T HAVE TO.
“Hand on heart the polls had no affect on my decision yadda yadda yadda”
Labour remind me of a company going helplessly bust. A company run by a bunch of frightened middle managers, all of whom are too inept or cowardly to challenge the obviously senile chairman. Meanwhile the poor workers look on, in amazement and despair, as their jobs go down the khazi.
47 Nice Try Sean.
73 - Not sure I’d entirely agree. If you swapped the current Labour front bench for their Lib Dem counterparts, the overall quality of minister would shoot up.
O/T, but has anyone seen the latest Dairylea advert (or is it because I spend too much time here, and not enough time listening to “left-wing education for the proles” - a.k.a. TV)? I saw it for the first time on Zone Horror (+1) this morning.
It is a nice little tune with the line “Here we go, two, three, four”. Seems to ring a bell with me. Is this what they call subliminal advertising…?
69
The current route which can easily be stopped,is that the government (Blair’s Warwick agreement) gives the trade unions around £ 10 million a year of taxpayers money for their so called modernisation fund.
Yes, you guessed right,the trade unions then pass almost exactly the same figure back to the Labour party which is called their political levy.
75 Yes, it was it wasnt it, and under the posts as well!
70
I’m not sure your correct, post de-valuation the Labour Party was in a pretty poor state. The Wilson government had revived somewhat by 1970, but the debacle over, ‘In Place of Strife’ and the’ ‘Trade Union Question’ gave the Tories the, ‘Legs’ to win in 1970.
78/79 was a much worse period for Labour than this, ‘The Winter of Discontent’ was Labour’s ERM disaster.
The problem the government has is the obvious, ‘The curse of the Third Term’ you’d think political parties would have learnt by now, ‘Do all you can to win two, do all you can not to win three’ and whatever you do, ‘Don’t win a fourth’
p.s.
I was around at that time.
70
You are probably correct.
I am trying to recall thn. At that time it was a period of Union dominance.. incompetent Conservatives (Heath and the Barber budget) and a Labour Party racked by problems of strikes, rising oil prices stupid taxation nearly banrupting comapanies . Prices and incomes policy was a failure. And immigration was an issue - a racial one.
The PM Callaghan was popular but the Chancellor Healey was totally out of his depth.
Today it’s different.
A Government which has tried to pass as many laws as possible without being able to enforce them.
Spinning and lying so no-one can believe what they say.. eg the economy.
Trying to change behaviour.
Immigration : the social and economic disruption more than the racial bit.
And the same economic incompetence exacerbated by claims of the Messianic qualities of Mr Brownas a financial wizard.
When people realise it’s just all words and no action, they get very angry . largely becuase they have been duped.
In the 197os it was WYSIWYG.
This time round it’s been a gigantic conjuring trick.
The electorate have been treated as fools and for a period they believed it.
Now they see reality.
That in my opinion is why the Labour Party is detested and reviled by many.
A complete change of personnel and policy is required. In effect a new generation…
68. Remember that when Brown was elected he was taking over from the ultimate showman/communicator who the country had grown tired of and Brown seemed the perfect antidote. A serious unshowy politician who got on with the job.
Looking back we took Blair’s talents too much for granted. When you see Cameron-who even his greatest admirers must admit is just a poor Blair impersonator-being 15 points up in the polls it makes you wonder whether the party were a bit hasty.
82. 20 points Rog, 20 points
54 - I’m with you. I miss gabble. Roger has his amusing moments, but gabble was consistently funny.
74. I think when the Labour Party was still primarily a working class movement aimed at alleviating poor working conditions and fostering self-improvement, it certainly was a moral force for good. But that ceased to be the case a long time ago.
Insofar as it ever had an ‘intellectual’ edge, that was the discredited Marxism beloved of the likes of Mr.Palmer and his predecessors. That was never a force for good, and continues to exercise a malign influence even today, when it has morphed into the ugly, primitive class envy seen at Crewe etc.
Re. 34 (c), Geoffrey Wheatcroft is very acute and amusing on this point in The Strange Death of Tory England, including some typically over the top quotes from Harold Pinter when he joined Charter 88.
82, Balls!
Brown was doing well (in polling terms) when he appeared to be that unshowy fellow. He only got into real trouble playing political tricks and telling lies very badly. If he’d stuck to the “Just Gordon” image he might be behind now, but not by 20-25 points.
morning all, I normally agree fully with Chris D but having watched Gordon Brown for over 25 years, he just cannot see that he is unpopular and reaching the stage of being hated. He genuinely believes that he will win the next GE. It is the Hitler bunker mentality as I mentioned the other day.
Stuart Dickson is as usual 100% spot on. There is now a real prospect next year of the Euro elections going SNP 2, Tory 2, Lab 1 and LibDem 1 which would mean Labour losing 1 seat when Scotland reduces its representation from 7 to 6 seats. The Scots Tories managed to win 2 seats 4 years ago when we were far less popular than we are now.
For several months now Scottish opinion polls have been showing the Scots Tories in the range of 15-20% whereas before 2005 it was nearer 10%. Generally we poll as much as 3-5% above poll ratings because in Scotland there is still a reluctance to admit to voting Tory. At the E that will only translate into 4-6 seats but if Labour tumbles badly that could double to 8-10 seats in the 10-20% majority at 2005 range.
This morning Alex Salmond is outlining the Scottish “Queen’s Speech” as I type. The contrast between the SNP minority Government in Scotland and the Labour 60 seat majority Government in Westminster could not be clearer. The SNP are riding high in the polls 16 months after winning the Scottish election, is full of confidence and looks and sounds like a Government knowing where it wants to go.
Labour have been sniping e.g. because the minority government has not yet incresed police numbers by 1000 but in the past year they have increased to an all time high and he has just promised the 1000 by 2011. The day before yesterday he was seen on TV opening the largest hydro electric scheme in Scotland which when fully operational will power 600,000 homes i.e. the city of Glasgow or more than 20% of Scotland’s homes.
As I have been in bed with flu since Monday, I have watched SKY news and BBC News 24 constantly and yesterday the overwhelming majority of commentators derided Gordon Brown’s measures to help housing and some went as far as to say it would make things worse. Prize of the day must go to Kay Burley’s face during an interview. Last week in Beijing at the post Olympics party she looked as though she was having an orgasm while interviewing Brown and “ramming her tongue up his ass with her brown-nosing”. Yesterday’s interviewee, a respected economist dismissed Brown as the most disastrous Chancellor this country has ever had and she simply sat there mouth open in total disbelief.
If things dont improve for Labour then in Scotland you are looking at 20 SNP gains not the modest 14 I have previously predicted and seats like Glasgow East and Glenrothes will stay SNP and Dunfermline will stay LibDem.
Historically Brown has sought to avoid any contest he might lose, being ever cautious. People criticise him for this but this approach has led him to reach the very summit of government.
He waited for a safe constituency seat to become available before putting himself up for election as an MP. He stepped back from a contest with Blair for the Labour leadership, expecting to take over unopposed when Blair eventually stepped down. He backed off from the “election that never was”, fearing he would lose.
His extreme caution led him to defer his actions until he judged a more propitious and opportune time had arrived. The difference with the next General Election is that it cannot be deferred indefinitely. The sands of time are running out. He still has a degree of choice over when the election takes place but not if it takes place.
My view is that he truly believes that he is the right man for the job and as well as always wanting to be PM he has always wanted to lead Labour to a General Election victory. I don’t think he will choose to step down and increasingly doubt he will be persuaded to step down or be toppled. His health could lead him to step down but otherwise I expect he will lead Labour into the next General Election: and lose heavily.
[23 etc] A good point. My recollection is that the Tories were widely hated up to 1992 but pitied thereafter. The latter is far more damaging and applies to Labour to-day.
I wholly agree with Our Genial Host: Labour is terminally ill. Harold Wilson said “The Labour Party is a moral cusade or it is nothing” - a proposition New Labour have tested to destruction.
At a time when the received wisdom was for a hung Parliament, I offered what Roger was kind enough to call my Apocalyptic Scenario which has become the received wisdom in its turn. I now repeat my other prediction: that by the middle of the next Parliament the polls will have settled into a “four, two, two, two” pattern - that is to say, 40% Conservative, 20% Labour, 20% Lib Dem and 20% others, the last being a mix of civilised Celtic nationalists and uncouth English populists/racists - and the odd Green. Dunno how you’d turn that into a betting profit, mind.
Roger @ 82 - “Remember that when Brown was elected .. “. Must have missed that. When?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 50.5.% .. Others 4.5%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 157 .. Obama 260 .. Toss Up 121
Changes Since Last Projection - Alaska moves from Toss Up McCain to Likely McCain. Indiana moves from Likely McCain to Toss Up McCain. Missouri moves from Likely McCain to Toss Up McCain. New Jersey moves from Likely Obama to Safe Obama.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 227 .. Obama 311
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
85
The Labour Party has never been primarily a working class movement. Most of its senior members, leaders etc. would be classified as middle class, often public school educated: Attlee, Gaitskell,Blair.
The desire to improve the lot of the poor etc, comes from the Whig tradition, Plantagenet Palliser being their role model.
80. Time will tell whether this Government finishes up in a worse mess than the 1974 - 1979 one. I consider the integrity of this one is much lower than then whilst the quality of the participants is significantly worse. That will, in my opinion, ultimately lead to an outcome that compares very unfavourably with 30 or 40 years ago.
#88, regarding the next GE.
I pumped through Populus’ latest poll into Baxter’s, having adjusted the Scottish poll, and I have to disagree with your revision. I cannot see any nationalists - save those English fringe parties that are grouped amongst them - doing better then expected.
The calculation used - and variations thereof - gave a minimal Tory majority of 110 (which I think is fair). However the SNP would - according to projections - only get 21 seats (and not hold Glasgow-East).
The problem: with LibDems polling 13-14%, they will retain a large number of seats (thanks to FPTP - ironic hah). If the Tories do better than four seats then that will be a good result, even with one-fifth of the electoral-vote.
Annabel Goldie the Scots Tory leader has just confirmed she will consider support for ALex Salmond on a policy by policy basis
Madasafish (5) has a good point.
Brown will not walk away.
He has ducked and dived to avoid direct competition.
He undermined and backstabbed his rivals to achieve what he wanted without the rigour of a Party Election.
He has lied and double dealt to escape a situation where he might lose (and lose face) - 42 days detention and the EU referendum.
But when things do go wrong, after a period of denial, he will turn around and blame someone else.
OT but I strongly recommend Google’s new browser Chrome - just downloaded it this morning. Fresh, fast and funky. And it fits in very nicely with iGoogle - if you have it. Which of course is itself totally brilliant.
I *heart* Google.
O/T Here is the GOP’s defence of their VP vetting process:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080903.wconventionpalin03/BNStory/International
I like the quote that McCain ruled out Pawlenty and Romney because “he felt they would bring little drama or intrigue to the race”. Well he certainly has got what he wanted from the Palin pick!
95 Fluffy Thoughts, things like Baxter have no understanding of Scottish politics and dont pretend to. If the SNP has 21 seats that would be the 14 gains I have thus far predicted. For Scotland it is Holyrood 2007 not Westminster 2005 which counts.
Brown being a protege of Adolf Hitler, will no doubt have had his felt tips pens out recently annotating diagrams of his final battle. When he fails; he will will have ordered all these drawings to be burn’t with himself in a trench outside the downing street bunker!
Brown will not accept defeat lightly and he will see the benifits of casting one final cloud over downsheet by being cremated in the No.10 Bunker.
I should image that Balls had been assigned the task of pouring the petrol and striking the match.
Balls does have crazy eyes afterall! 
93. Rubbish - the Whigs were the party of the high aristocracy and later of the factory owners. These were the people who, among other things, embraced enclosure, strongly opposed regulations on working conditions, introduced the Poor Law Amendment Act of 1834 and took an ideological approach to famine relief in Ireland that greatly exacerbated the suffering.
The Labour Party came into existence at the end of the 19th century as a working class movement precisely because the Whigs/Liberals were not seen as representing the interests of working people. New Labour looks more like the decadent Whigs of the late 18th century.
[103] Er, runnymede, precisely which Labour minister reminds you of Charles James Fox?
104. In terms of talent, none of them.
The answer to Mike’s question is “No”. The man is obviously deluded – “best placed to weather the global economic downturn”, “no more boom and bust”, “no-one will be worse off as a result of the 10p tax abolition” – and in his delusions he will never beleive that he is leading his party to a catastrophic defeat.
101 Baxter is of course a Scot. So it’s a bit harsh to say “things like Baxter have no understanding of Scottish politics”.
In fact, I think Scotland is handled better than Wales in his machinery.
88 Easterross - always appreciate your knowledge of the local situation.
Whilst I have not worked in Scotland for many years, I believe it is very possible that at the next GE that Labour could emerge with less than 10 seats. At present SNP, who seems to gather voters from all parties, appears to present hope for the future.
If SNP do not make any bad gaffes between now and 2010, will this prevailing mood swing in their favour even outstrip the present polls and emasculate Labour is Scotland for some time to come? - Would appreciate your comments
14. Here you go roger
http://news.scotsman.com/politics/Brickbats-for-Brown39s-stamp-duty.4451381.jp
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article4663903.ece
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8b8a2cea-7920-11dd-9d0c-000077b07658.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/09/02/bcnstamp1002.xml
@99:
Chrome is *amazing*.
I mean, it’s not finished, and is missing a few Firefox extensions I need, but its process isolation/task manager is a thing of genius, its UI is beautifully minimal but highly functional (Omnibar: kiss kiss), and OH MY GOD TEH SNAPPY.
I just benchmarked it as 40x (FORTY!) faster than Internet Explorer on my PC, and 10x faster than Firefox 3.
Wow.
90. “The Labour Party is a moral cusade or it is nothing”
I think this is right. However even from the Tories the public expect a sense of direction. Just implying they would manage things better than Labour will only work if things haven’t improved by election time. Cameron has nothing like the respect or the ideas Blair had in 1996.
If Labour start to turn things round and look competent again they could still win on the basis of better the devil you know.
A whimsical thought:
Following the boundary changes, I wonder what the first seat to be declared next time will be? For the last few elections Sunderlands North and South have always been first to declare, but these seats always had a small electorate and a small turnout - and, I suspect, weren’t actually counted terribly accurately - did accuracy really matter when the result was so far beyond doubt? Now the bulk of these seats is combined in the new seat of Sunderland Central which is a) larger and b) much less safe I wonder where the first to declare might be? My guess is Barnsley Central - compact, safe, low turnout (so less counting needed) - and Barnsley have historically always been pretty quick off the mark.
111, the Tories turned the economy around before 1997. There reaches a certain stage where the public just loathes you too much to forgive.
The “LA Times” reports on McCain’s earlier critisism of Palin’s policies in Alaska.
Other media outlets are reporting on new e-mails directly linking Palin to Troopergate.
Palin appears to be the gift that keeps on giving to the Democrats.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-earmarks3-2008sep03,0,6851593.story
@114:
Democrats have allowed their Palin panic make them shoot their wads *far* too early. What’s happened to Obama’s strategists? Have they been sleeping on the job since Palin was chosen?
91.
Labour has indeed been destroying itself as a moral and intellectual force for the past 10 years. The Conservatives have the luxury of never pretending to want to be either, and delivering accordingly. The coalition which is the Conservative Party is and always has been about the pursuit of power for their own clique and hangers-on for its own sake. Occasionally they forget that, letting glib pseudo-Tories like Blair steal their position on the back of smiles and twaddle. But their gyroscope always pulls them back to home base.
re 89 Easterross yes I thought that Sky interview with the finance person (linked yesterday) was truly amazing. The interviewer woman seemed so dumbstruck by the answers she was getting that she wanted to disagree with everything he said. Rather than interviewing him she ended up arguing with him.
53. Thanks David. Did you watch the Muller-Davydenko contest? The look of hatred in Davydenko’s eyes when Muller accidently hit a ball into the Russian’s back? Someone should send a video of it to David Miliband in case it’s a snapshot of Russian temperament at this moment in time.
It’s been a good tournament so far from a punting perspective and very interesting too. I’ve got some serious doubts about Nadal, Federer and Djokovic going on and winning the title. This is Nadal’s worst grandslam (he’s never passed the quarters) and he’s played so much tennis it’s catching up on him. Djokovic was all over the place yesterday and looks like he’s carrying an injury. Federer could so easily have lost yesterday against Andreev. After his performance in the previous round against Stepanek I thought Roger’s confidence was back, but not after his latest performance. Murray, Roddick, Fish and Del Potro all have serious claims for reaching the final on current form but all have tricky match-ups to navigate.
I am very much looking forward to the two matches tonight. Del Potro and Murray will be a real grudge contest. I backed Del Potro each way at the start of the tournament at 66/1 but I’d make Murray favourite tonight. Anything could happen in Fish v Nadal if Fish plays as well as he has been. He’s impressed me the most out of anyone in recent rounds, but he’s yet to take a set off Nadal in four matches on fastcourts.
I’ll post later if there’s any bet selections worth taking.
16. Brown is not on his own spouting that line: Ed Balls say’s the country is best best placed with the current donwturn with low governemnt debt!
There are all completly deluded!
What is worse; Balls asked if he was going to become the next C of E - Had a smile of pride and look in his eyes that he knows he is going there! Bllody hell this country is fast heading into the biggest basket case in the west!
89 Easterross The Sky midday output is dire and Kay Burley an embarrassment to herself about Brown.
Did you see the look on her face when she asked Lamont whether he supported the stamp duty holiday ‘after all you did the same thing as Chancellor.’
She was convinced she was going to get support for Brown’s whizzo idea, and the look on her face when Lamont said his scheme was a waste of time was wonderful.
Stunned mullet.
Have Roger and Gabble ever been seen together?
Judging by the photos here, Gordon’s lost an awful lot of weight in just 2 months; looks to be between 2 & 3 stone gone.
http://dizzythinks.net/2008/09/malcious-narrative-on-browns-health.html
As for the manner of his leaving, it’ll be quick and full of accusations that an ungrateful party didn’t deserve him and they’ll regret it it.
Wrong again, Gordon.
93
The working class has always been poorly represented in the Labour Party leadership. When the Liberal Party disintegrated in the 1920’s some went to the Tories, some to Labour. The Whig tradition carried on.
Enoch Powell when asked what was the fundemental problem within the MacMillan cabinet said,’The PM was a Whig along with half the cabinet, the other half were Tories, two totally incompatible political tribes’
Similar problems will soon arise in the Cameron (Whig) cabinet. Most of the Tory contributors to this site will within two years of DC becoming PM, be baying for his blood and for Redwood to take over.
118. Should have been for 54 and not 53.
104 charles James Fox - It would have to be a composite. Someone with the
morals and administrative ability of John Prescott
the background of Hilary Benn
the judgement of Brown
the oratorical skills of….um….here I’m stumped and have to resort to the late Robin Cooke
123
“for Redwood to take over”
Joke of the month. Lol.
115 Martin C. Too funny !!!
The Democrats can’t believe their luck. The GOP has for now lost control of the media narrative and the MSM are swarming all over Palin.
On a tactical level the Palin pick was an error. Palin who ??? All too quickly the bright shiny new button, nationally unvetted by the MSM hit the spotlight and all the faults and little scandals known in Alaska about her got the national treatment.
Palin may turn the situation around. We’ll see.
123. Stop writing such drivel. Keir Hardie, Arthur Henderson, Ramsay MacDonald, William Adamson, Robert Clynes - these were all working class Labour leaders.
123. Redwood to take over?……..you obviously have no idea what most tories want.
113. by ‘97 they were risible in pretty much every department. the sluggish economy, numerous scandals, sleaze, corruption and unusually strong opposition that were also features of the period masked the fact that pretty much every single policy was a dud, and pretty much every minister was out of his depth.
Lab are suffering some of the same problems - being in power for so long leads to the rise of a generation of politicians whose careers were not built on the victory, but on prolonging power. their ideas are not based on desire to improve the country, but a desire to keep things going as long as possible.
the biggest difference, for me, is that the Cons in the 80s and 90s had alienated large geographical and demographic sections of the populations - they really did become reliant on a core vote. they are still suffering from that now, with insignificant presence in Scotland for example, despite significant recovery since.
127. Yes the Lieberman endoursment of McCain must be a shattering blow to the Republicans! If he had been VP on the ticket i would have understood it but when he is not on the ticket - it has shot the media narrative to pieces.
On topic, yes I can see Brown resigning. I wonder if he’ll look for a legacy issue first like we have with Blair. Labour needs to give him an exit strategy to save face. Ill health won’t do it.
[79] - The Union modernisation fund, as far as I’m aware, is mostly spent on various bits of training. You might not have realised it, but the Unions gave the Labour party plenty of money before the Union modernisation fund existed.
I doubt the political levy is going to cease to exist if/when the modernisation fund is stopped.
131 Martin Day. Old news …. in fact very old news …. in fact almost 105 year old news !!!!
Lieberman supports McCain. In other news George W Bush might be slightly Republican !!!!
112: ‘…and, I suspect, weren’t actually counted terribly accurately…’
You’re not suggesting they did a rushed job (and bugg*r counting the electorate’s votes correctly) just for the publicity of being the first to declare?
93,123,129 Redwood is an ideas man and not a leader, nor can he relate to or resonate with the electorate.
136. mos