Continuation Thread: Will McCain be overshadowed?
September 4th, 2008-
How will he compare to Obama and Palin in his acceptance speech?
John McCain has many qualities, but being a big-venue orator is not first amongst them. Having seen Obama put on a remarkable show last Thursday in Denver, John McCain saw his VP pick, Governor Palin, deliver a superb address last night. She managed to enthuse the Convention Center to an extent not seen previously this week, and has received glowing reviews in the midst of a hostile media storm over her private life.
Tonight, John McCain will accept his party’s nomination for the Presidency, and in doing so will mark the end of the longest and most expensive primary season in US electoral history. But as well as trying to match up to the rhetorical achievements of Barack Obama and Sarah Palin, McCain is also competing with a continuing hurricane on the Gulf Coast, and the beginning of the NFL season (the Redskins and the Giants kick off at 19:07 Eastern Time, and McCain is due to speak between 10 and 11 pm EST). The game was moved forward by 90 minutes at the request of NBC.
Warm-up acts tonight include former Homeland Security Secretary (and former PA Governor) Tom Ridge, Governor Pawlenty (MN), and Senators Ensign (NV), Martinez (FL), Brownback (KS), and Graham (SC). The nominee will be introduced by his wife, Cindy McCain.
In other news, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick has resigned over his many criminal charges - this is good news for Obama.
Once again, I may not manage to stay up until the small hours, so please be patient with overnight clearing of the moderation box.
Morus
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2 thank you Coldstone.
AS funny a link as I have ever seen. My wife thought it was for real
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/ama-gonna-git-me-a-niggra%2c-says-palin–200809041227/
It feels as if the Republican base has been really motivated by the Palin pick. It’s almost as if the hard right will vote for her and not Mccain.
She gave a great speech last night, Mccain has a hell of an act to follow.
Gonna watch Newsnight in a minute. Let’s see how much bias Emilie can frame in her interviews in St. Paul tonight.
370. Phil C. That’s what I’m getting at. It’s not as if some English counties don’t have the means, the size, the population, the identity to devolve power straight to them. They patently do. And this extra layer of identity is another headache when it comes to pondering English solutions to the WLQ.
Mike, believe Hurrican Hanna is threat to Atlantic Coast, from Florida north to Virginia. Though might conceivably hit the Gulf IF it tracked south and cross Florida peninsula first.
6 sorry, Morus!
2. And people actually believe this S–T!
6 - SSI - I was talking about the ongoing clean-up after Gustav - I completely forgot about Hurricane Hanna!
5 - hear hear!
Devolve power to the counties - as long as they’re PROPER counties!
http://www.abcounties.co.uk/
prev thread ctd
362 Labour politicians keep on telling us England does not exist. Regionalisation was the method they used to partition England up into little pieces so as to please the Scots, Welsh and Irish. Labour are anti-English as the current funding arrangements via the Barnett Formulae show. Many Liberal and Labour politicians have openly called for the destruction of England. Well I say death to New Labour and stuff their anglophobic supporters.
359 You are clearly an Anglophobic Labour supoorting bigot.
If McCain does *well* in his speech (as I’d think he probably will), we’ll probably see him ahead in post-convention polls, though it’ll probably take a couple of weeks till the dust clears and we see the end result of the conventions. If he is overshadowed, that could be serious - his ‘vigorous old guy’ image only works as long as he keeps it up: he can’t afford underperformances that would be forgiven a younger candidate.
As was noted on previous thred, for all the nasty aspects the 2008 presidential election is fundamentally a more positive affair than the 2004 and 2000 contests.
On the Democratic side, strong enthusiasm very evident for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. As for Republicans candidates, many within and without the Grand Old Party see McCain as an impressive candidate in his own right, and clearly heads & shoulders above the incumbent.
The one sizeable group, however, that really had nothing to cheer about until last Friday was the religious Republican right. John McCain was certainly NOT their candidate. Not that they really liked ANY of the choices on offer during the primary/caucus campaign.
BUT they sure as shooting like Sarah Palin. And why not? She’s one of them. So now they can get fired up for McCain on the understanding that, the good Lord willing and the creeks don’t rise, after next January they just might be able to add a prayer that that Jaysus please take his faithful servant President McCain unto his boosum . . .
12 GOP gain Broxtowe
11 - HAHAHAA
Someone tell him how much I support Labour!
5 I don’t see how an extra layer of government would help, especially as instead of being ruled from Winchester it would probably be Milton Keynes… let’s face it, Hampshire is almost as big as Wales and probably has a bigger economy.
However, an English government should take over functions from Westminster, which would then no longer need them because there would be no part of the UK not covered by devolved government, so for example there would be no requirement for there to be a Secretary of State for Education*, or for that matter an Education Department**. So it’s not really an extra layer of government, as the UK government could be completely downsized to just deal with the economy, defence, foreign affairs, etc. In fact the Times is carrying a story that more economic policy will be devolved to the Scottish Government - which if you assumed that all 4 nations of the UK were equally devolved (which some day they could be) would start to make the UK government look pointless.
** Department of Curtains & Soft Furnishings as it is now called
* See above
8- to be honest cocky I doubt people can believe Palin
13. As much as I like Sarah Palin, I’m slightly disconcerted by the thought that the first family of America would consist of people with names like Track, Trig and Bristol…
New Howey Politics poll for Indiana :
McCain 45% .. Obama 43%
http://www.howeypolitics.com/
18. Johnson’s entire family, including the dog, had the initials LBJ….
12 - The likelihood is that a convention bounce will see McCain level in polls to the middle of next week, ahead in some (possibly one or both of the trackers). As with any event bounce, the test is in its longevity. Obama got to 8/9% ahead post-conference, too high to maintain given the relatively static average lead over some months, but the underlying figures would still seem to give him a 1 to 4 percent national lead and that (barring unforeseen events) is where I predict we’ll be when the dust settles.
16. Federalism has long been an option I’ve pondered and I do wonder, now we’re on the long and winding road of devolution, whether it would be best to simply end up there…
As I say above, only problem is whether or not to subdivide England. (In my eyes, anyway. I realise that there’s plenty of people who would call for just one English Parliament, but I’m personally open to different possibilities).
16 Most English Nationalists now support breakup of the UK for this very reason. Independence is coming soon.
20. Just goes to show that those pesky veeps have always been a little bit odd!
LOL! I see Browns still in complete denial about the British economy. Still harping on about how we’re better placed to whether the storm thant at any other time. Still realing off his tractor list of reasons to be cheerful.
Meanwhile theres confusion over his “energy reforms” and Charles Clarke stomps around the place telling the country that Brown has just weeks left in office. The re-launch is dead in the water and the fate of the Labour Party lies in tatters.
This is like watching a car crash in slow motion.
11: David Roe is an Anglophobic Labour-supporting bigot? rofl - he’s a Tory who works for the Sun. But if one’s far enough to the nationalist right, almost everyone else seems to be Labour. (Labour gains Mid-Sussex! - as Ave It would say.)
To reply to the queries on the last thread - these were 6th formers, so not exactly kids - they’ll mostly be voters by election time. They were keen on the anti-racist lapel buttons and Labour pens etc. we were handing out and generally friendly to both us and the LDs, but not in deep discussion mode.
L
O
L
26 HEHEHE
22 Surely the first step is to create an English parliament. The English will then decide how they want their country to be run and could, for example, choose a model with a weak national government and power strongly devolved to the counties.
Ali C on Newsnight - You Know when Labour are in real trouble they have to get the bloke who resigned over David Kelly untimely death.
Ali C is pathetic on Newsnight, Starts talking about his book etc - Straight to the new Labour poison: Me, Money and Power!
Labour needs booting out, if they cannot even put up a government minister and are realigent on a has been bully. Labour Out!
26. generally friendly -
Sure you will have met some people today you will remember!
30. I have never understood this glamourising of Alistair Campbell by the media since his resignation (well, I can somewhat, as he did *work* with the media and they like to stick together).
None of this disguises the fact that he is a hideously repugnant individual who probably has done more than any other person to wreck our politics.
30 Send him to Sainsbury’s with Gibson - a new sort of 2 for 1 offer
30. Yeah, Campbell looking as mad as ever. I’d love Brown to bring him back. Imagine it at the next election;
Brown as PM
Balls a Chancellor.
Hattie as Chairperson
Ali Campbell as Browns press spokesman.
You you find a group of people any more unsuited to be leading an election campaign?
33.
32 He was always, and remains, a turd. He ranks with Piers Morgan and Michael Winner in the irritating stakes
26 free pens !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOL that’ll do a fat lot of good come the election.
I’ve delved into the crosstabs of the CBS new poll noted at the end of the last thread with Obama and McCain tied at 42%. The previous CBS poll three days earlier had Obama +8 ….. Mmhhhhh.
Reason. CBS have changed the party id by Republican +5 and Independent -5.
Sorted.
Little wonder 538 rates CBS the third worst pollster out there and heck there’s some competition for crap pollsters !!
37 LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!
I don’t buy this federalist stuff. I just think it causes more gridlock in the governance of a country. Just look at similar sized countries in Europe. France and Britain have by far the most say around the world, where the German, Italian and Spanish national governments are massively weakened because of constant bickering with the regions. The USA manages to get over this by having an executive free to operate on its own on the global stage, but on domestic policy you have similar gridlock.
34. Ali said “he does not want his old job back”: Scower the press for Diary columns over the next few days: People like that tend to sell stories like that for £50-100! Easy money!
I doubt Gordon has asked him back, that would be admiting defeat indeed was Brown trying to spin a reverse sabotage; making such a poor presentation of Labour difficulties whilst plugging his book and undermining Brown by saying “I’m not coming back”. Yes, indeed that was what it was about! Ali was putting the Boot in!
Sorry: I doubt Gordon has asked him back, that would be admiting defeat indeed was *Ali C* trying to spin a reverse sabotage making such a poor presentation of Labour difficulties whilst plugging his book and undermining Brown by saying “I’m not coming back”. Yes, indeed that was what it was about! Ali was putting the Boot in!
10. Tabman: Devolve power to the counties - as long as they’re PROPER counties!
Well, that’s my proposal if we have to have an elected upper chamber of Parliament - elect two (maybe three) members per traditional county.
32. Classic clip of the man
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H-HdizCnh8
37. No doubt they were musical ones: “Things can only get better!”
I bet the kids got that exited they were carrying Nick round on their shoulders and he even did a dentist chair!
I bet the kids got that excited they were carrying Nick round on their shoulders and he even did a dentist chair!
41
Cambell is an uber-loyal Blairite. He is only on there to flog his book that he got his plug in for. He is yesterdays man. The story has moved on and even Campbell cant sell Gordo. Thats impossible.
Maitliss bullying sweet old chestnut Kissinger on Newsnight - although she is doing her ‘earnest’ look for each question - she succeeds only really in looking like a blonde having a tricky number 2.
Kissinger - legend
Maitliss - out of her depth, send her to Price-Drop TV
48 Jennie Scott for Newsnight Totty. Maitliss to sell Jacquard bedspreads.
48 What a dreadful woman. Biased unprofessional and rude. Makes you proud to be British.
47. Yes, I doubt Ali C was on there to help Brown - If he is such a good spin merchant he would not make a mistake like: “I am not coming back”. Maybe it is a code like that film the 4th protocol where Brosnan sets the bomb off at an air base when something is mentioned on the news. In this case Blairites are tuned into Newsnight with letters requesting leadership contests. Maybe this is why Nick mentions Pens - A code within a code!
Exciting times!
50 Yes, she’s not good
38 Jack W
So which one is erroneous ?
Pens…. I am still chuckling about it.Loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool.
Kissinger looked like a mouldy jack-o-lantern.
Palin looks to be rallying the base… the Democratic base.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Palin_raising_for_Obama_.html?showall
49. Actually, I would go for Jane Hill (Though she did work for the Dems once
) or the one with nice BJ lips: Kate Silverton or faye Barker from sky! 
55 to be fair he looked like that in 1973, now he really IS a mouldy old jacl-o-lantern
54 or more simply HAHA to the power of Mark Senior
Some SUSA polling on Obama and McCain and their VP picks :
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=9e46eb4b-e181-44b8-8258-fe2477d7120f
54. Better than bag marked sweets!
57 Ugh, anyone but Silverton - poor mans Kaplinsky
Who’s that one on Sky who just looks unhappy all the time?
Anyway, doesn’t matter, the pocket rocket Jennie Scott trumps anyone you can mention because she rocks.
59. He seems to have vanished - maybe he does not want to part with his coin?
53 Paul M. I’d say todays is an outlier. Most polls are presently in the range of Obama +5/+7%.
64 Thanks Jack
Is the voter ID % an outlier though ?
62. She is the one that thinks Gordon is a good PM and metaphorically polishes everytime she interviews him (Not Faye Barker by the way!)
63
T H
E E
E E
Forget the US, when when when will someone get rid of Brown. Then we can look over the pond…
64. Apart from the latest one out today! McCain? Obama were Head to Head! Neck & Neck!
66 Maybe they can temp Kay Burley away from her hard-hitting exposes on the life of Naomi Campbell and ‘News on this Puppy - you like him don’t you?! More on that after the break’
65 Paul M. Yes. They’ve recalibrated too far especially given the registration drives by the Democrats.
69 *tempt not temp
69. I tens to ignore sky, I used to like the Irish weather presenter though! Until she got up the duff! How selfish!
72. Tens = Tend
72 You mean the lovely Lisa Burke, you have good taste in weather girls
72 Sky is far more imapartial than the BBC IMHO.
74 She is back by the way
I like BBC weather girl, Laura Tobin very cute.
75 It does have Kay Burley and Jason De La Pena though…
Having said that Adam Boulton’s meltdown over the non-election was the best thing I have ever seen on television
68 Martin. See the national polls detailed below :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
CON WIN
CON WIN
CON WIN
CON WIN
CON WIN
CON WIN
74. Oh - yes!
75. Generally sky Presenters are but there are a few rotten apples!
The BBC on the other hand feels terribly biased - this again is down to the different presenters. Some presenters give a rough time to all politicians though so it must not be confused.
I rather like Carol Kirkwood who does the weather on BBC Breakfast.
62 Agree, not Silverton please, a jumped up, overpaid autocutie.
12 - Yes. In this election, McCain must get EVERYTHING correct. Like landing a Navy jet on a pitching carrier deck in the middle of a typhoon. Margin of error is at vanishing point: make a mistake and you go splat.
77. Oh -yes, I would do her as well (Hypothetically)! Actually apart from the odd moose i would do most of them on the BBC! Plus the Newsreaders!
(all Female of couse).
84. He also has to hope Obama does things wrong and events go his way. If Obama performs competently from now to the election, McCain simply can’t win, no matter how good he is.
70 Jack W
Thanks
Looking at the electoral map vs 2004, looks like Iowa and New Mexico are fairly certain pick ups for Obama, with Colorado, Nevada, Virgina and others distinctly possible. For McCain to win this, looks like he will have to win in Michigan and/or Wisconsin
The current trial of the young charismatic Democratic Mayor of Detroit cannot be helping Obama, and I would think Palin would play well in the more rural parts of Michigan and Wisconsin. Still feels like McCain needs an inside straight though, as there aren’t that many obvious pick ups.
82. ??????
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7546187.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7546204.stm
87. Difficult to say, the Obama / ethinicity may not even register in the polls: If it does i would expect it to do so around a gaff or mistake. People will only admit it outside the polling booth if they can say a plausible non-racial reason IMO.
86- Indeed. This is Obama’s to lose, which means that only Obama can lose it and McCain can’t, per se, win it. I don’t think that McCain’s hope, slender as it is, will have much to do with what he does or doesn’t do the rest of the way from here. He will only win if people conclude they just CAN’T vote for Obama. I don’t believe that will happen.
85 As long as you leave the delicious Jannie Scott to me you can have all the rest Martin
To Paraphrase 2010 ‘All these presenters are yours except Jennie. Attempt no landing there. Use them together, use them in peace’
87. Paul M: The current trial of the young charismatic Democratic Mayor of Detroit cannot be helping Obama
I’d have thought so, but in the lead article Morus says Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick has resigned over his many criminal charges - this is good news for Obama.
91 *Jennie
87 - That’s the second time you’ve come up with the best analogy (after ‘the bride during the best man’s speech’)
McCain is looking to draw an inside straight, and he’s playing against a flush draw, with two cards to play.
87. Wisconsin is a sure thing for Obama. Even when McCain was drawing level nationally it was continuing to trend to Obama:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/wi/08-wi-pres-ge-mvo.php
According to the polls, this election is entirely dependent on whether McCain can win Colorado or Michigan. And my personal view is that the polls are really underrepresenting Obama in Colorado due to Hispanic turnout being greater this time.
It’s Michigan or bust for McCain.
92. taineted by association - Has Obama not got Issues with funding or some bloke under investigation or in jail from his home state? Again with the racial issue this could tar Obama with the untrustworthy brush.
78.”Having said that Adam Boulton’s meltdown over the non-election was the best thing I have ever seen on television”
That was good. But would loved to have seen a clip showing the faces of Boulton and the other political editors as Andrew Marr stood on the steps of Downing street and addressed them about the intentions of the PM.
97 hehehehehe yes - I imagine pissed off does not begin to describe it - Boulton was still steaming the next day
90. I think McCain’s only real chance was Hillarycrats not coming round. I think they would have eventually even with tepid support from the Clintons, but after their really positive convention speechs it happened sooner. Obama has to actually lose Democrats now, which won’t happen without a big screwup.
97. What happened? I must have missed that! Waht did Boulton do?
19. Bush won Indiana 60-39 in 2004.
For McCain to only be leading 45-43 is surely pretty extraordinary.
Even if we assume it’s at the extreme end of the 3% MoE - ie real position is 48-40, that is still an enormous swing from 2004.
100 You missed a classic Martin - he basically interviewed various Labour dignitaries in a state of rage over the non-election and Brown using Marr to announce it, including such classics as ‘OH COME ON!’ when one of them suggested that Gordon had not looked at the polls - he was genuinely steaming at the ears about it
102. It is extraordinary but you have to factor in the candidates’ geography too. Obama is from next door, and from a metropolis that extends into the state.
Looks like McCain will hold Indiana easily. - Why? The poll was taken aftet the Democratic convention and McCain still leads.
Palins speech was watched by 37million people. So, I think we should expect a bounce.
87 Paul M. Wisconsin looks clearly in Obama’s column. The last Michigan poll by Selzer (Top 538 pollster) had Obama +7.
Presently the window for McCain is small. A chance to flip New Hampshire’s 4 EV’s. Even then the “Jack W Base For The Race” changes to Obama 260, McCain 278. Then McCain has to hold all the 9 EV plus battleground states - Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida or a combination of Nevada (5), Montana (3), North Dakota (3) and one EV form Nebraskas split 5EV’s that add up to 9.
Remember a 269 tie is an win for Obama on away goals in Congress.
105 - I still think this comes down to the debates unless McCain has a stinker tonight in front of 30 million people.
He will be within 4/5 points going into the debates. So Biden and Obama just need to hold their own to win. I think they will but I expect Palin to come out of this election as a serious player, assuming the scurrilous rumours about her private life ae the ‘lies’ her aides claim.
95 Morus
You’re making me blush ! I like your pieces too.
ok this is why obamas gonna win.
I watched the palin speech and i was impressed and forthe first time i kinda forgot about obama and thought you know maybe this could work they might win.
Then i watched obamas speech and thought good lord this guy seems like he already is a president incomparison.
When obama comes back he is gonna destroy the field. He is to much of a class act.
106 - A tie would be an amazing result by McCain/Palin. He has no right to be in this contest in this seriously blue year.
Even the fact that we think he has a gamblers chance is stunning really when you look how we expect congress to be made up next year.
I recall a guy called Joe Biden being picked by Obama as his VP ‘attack dog’ a couple of weeks ago. I wonder whatever happened to him.
Now we have a Republican VP appointment yet everybody including Obama seems surprised that she is attacking him. Seems the Democrats would be better served by campaigning against their real opponents and not the stereotypes that they wish they were facing.
A lot of the past week seems to have been taken up by Obama against Palin with the Democratic Presidential Candidate trying to convince everybody the he really, really is more experienced that the Republican Vice Presidential candidate, honest.
I think this is foolish of him. It’s a classic case of having a dog and barking yourself. His opponent is McCain, not Palin. I suggest he goes looking to see what has happened to his own ‘attack dog’. Perhaps Biden is busy studing the amazing speeches of Neil Kinnock.
106 Point taken, but I think that the Republicans can keep things close in Wisconsin. It was split by hairs in 2004, and the Democratic registration/turnout machine in Milwaukee was already going flat out last time, so maybe there won’t be the same boost as say Virginia. Throw in this Palin small town stuff and some money and it could still be close.
110- Speaking of ties, the 42% to 42% tie in the latest CBS poll is quite remarkable, especially since the RNC isn’t even over yet, let alone seeing the cresting of the RNC bounce (whatever that may be). But most shocking is a poll showing Obama standing on a figure of 42% at this point in the campaign. Given the huge pro-Democratic tilt of the playing field this year, all the stars aligned, etc., there’s no way Obama should be receiving only 42%. This shows that there’s still a lot of doubt and Obama still has some convincing to do. Hundreds of millions of dollars in campaign cash should go a long way toward helping him do that, but the surprisingly poor state of his standing in this CBS poll is no less remarkable for it.
102 - is there a clip of that on YouTube?!
Well another incredible day on Forex. This is too easy money riding the sterling fall. I thought that 1.7790 would prove to be a reversal point, now looking at 1.74 before a reversal, who knows? Keep shorting for the time being. Enjoying the Yen gain as well, think we’re really seeing an onset of deflationary conditions across the world economy, and now the lowest yielding currencies, ie the Yen, the Dollar and the Swiss Franc will fair best. Looking for the Aussie to be worth about 0.75 against the dollar by the end of the year. I said that the Yen could go to 130/140 against Sterling at the end of 2008, still think that will be optimistic, but I certainly see a move down to 160 possible still.
Enjoyed the clip on Newsnight with GB in front of a “Joke Box”. Who are the spin meisters in NuLabour these days?!!!! lol!! Every day must seem like a week to Gordon now - oh what fun. But can this really go on for another 18 months? Saw the previous thread last night on this - what price GB going through ill health round about the New Year 2010 and avoid the final humiliation? Somehow I still think he will cling on until the end, but what an irony, the first real contest that GB has ever had to contest in his political career and a ‘U’nclassified grade awaiting me thinks!!
113 - A caveat. Jack reckons CBS have changed their weighting in the GOP’s favour.
113 SaS. The poll is flawed. See upthread. They’ve moved the party ID in GOP favour considerably.
G’Nite all
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
The fact remains that my home state of Wisconsin hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the Reagan landslide of 1984, and I doubt it will do so this time either. Wisconsin is hard to describe in blanket terms, essentially constituing three parts, each of which has little in common with the other two: Milwaukee, Madison, and everything else. The net effect is usually statewide Democratic victories (works out a lot like Pennsylvania).
99.”97 hehehehehe yes - I imagine pissed off does not begin to describe it - Boulton was still steaming the next day”
I think it took him till at least Monday to calm down, didn’t he make Paxman look a softie in that interview with Jacqui Smith on the his Sunday programme that weekend? That must be lying on youtube somewhere still?
If it is an electoral college tie, Rod Crosby owes a charity of my choice £150 (I made that bet last October, I think).
If anyone find odds with a bookmaker or exchange, I’d like to know.
115/116- Regardless, it is a *close* poll and, if the methodology has been changed, it has presumably been changed for a reason other than a desire to render the poll less accurate.
SMALL TOWN BLUES
Here is link to “ABOUT SARAH PALIN
by Anne Kilkenny, a Wasilla resident who clearly hates Palin’s guts (and says the feeling is mutual).
http://www.washingtonindependent.com/3671/the-reform-candidate
Here are the best tidbits; clearly there is another side to the story told below. But is still interesting, as reflection of views of local foes, and even more important as pointer some of the stuff the media is sniffing around at.
In her statement, Ms Kilkenny says:
–”During [Palin's] mayoral administration most of the actual work of running this small city was turned over to an administrator. She had been pushed to hire this administrator by party power-brokers after she had gotten herself into some trouble over precipitous firings which had given rise to a recall campaign.”
–”Sarah campaigned in Wasilla as a ‘fiscal conservative’. During her 6 years as Mayor, she increased general government expenditures by over 33%. During those same 6 years the amount of taxes collected by the City increased by 38%.”
–”She inherited a city with zero debt, but left it
with indebtedness of over $22 million.”
–instead of funding neeed sewage treatment facility or new library, of the civic debt incurred under Palin included “$15m-plus for construction of a
multi-use sports complex which she rushed through to build on a piece of property that the City didn’t even have clear title to, that was still in litigation 7 yrs later.” Plus the Wasilla sports complex has turned out to be “a huge money pit, not the profit-generator she claimed it would be.”
–”While Sarah was Mayor of Wasilla she tried to fire our highly respected City Librarian because the Librarian refused to consider removing from the library some books that Sarah wanted removed. City residents rallied to the defense of the City Librarian and against Palin’s attempt at out-and-out censorship, so Palin backed down and withdrew her termination letter. People who fought her attempt to oust the Librarian are on her enemies list to this day.” (note: Ms Kilkenny also states that Palin “has hated me since back in 1996, when I was one of the 100 or so people who rallied to support the City Librarian against Sarah’s attempt at censorship.”)
–”While Mayor, City Hall was extensively remodeled and her office redecorated more than once. These are small numbers,but Wasilla is a very small city.”
–”She has bitten the hand of every person who extended theirs to her in help. The City Council person who personally escorted her around town introducing her to voters when she first ran for Wasilla City Council became one of her first targets when she was later elected Mayor.
–”She abruptly fired her loyal City Administrator; even people who didn’t like the guy were stunned by this ruthlessness. Fear of retribution has kept all of these people from saying anything
publicly about her.”
–”Sarah complained about the “old boy’s club” when she first ran for Mayor, so what did she bring Wasilla? A new set of “old boys”. Palin fired most of the experienced staff she inherited. At the City and as Governor she hired or elevated new, inexperienced, obscure people, creating a staff totally dependent on her for their jobs and eternally
grateful and fiercely loyal–loyal to the point of abusing their power to further her personal agenda, as she has acknowledged happened in the case of pressuring the State’s top cop.”
–”As Mayor, Sarah fired Wasilla’s Police Chief because he ‘intimidated’ her, she told the press.”
–”When Sarah’s mother-in-law, a highly respected member of the community and experienced manager, ran for Mayor, Sarah refused to endorse her.”
–”Around Wasilla there are people who went to high school with Sarah. They call her “Sarah Barracuda” because of her unbridled ambition and predatory ruthlessness. Before she became so powerful, very ugly stories circulated around town about shenanigans she pulled to be made point guard on the high school basketball team.”
Interesting that 538 is showing a 71.8% chance of an Obama win…
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Surely it’s all over for McCain?
Hardly!!!!!
Imagine an opinion poll [1000 sample] in a by-election with just two candidates. How far apart would the candidates have to be for the leading candidate to have a similar projected win percentage as Obama?
The answer is just 1.8% apart [50.9%:49.1%]..
Would anyone be at all surprised if in fact the trailing candidate won on election day?
No - this is still a close election.
Btw, another good site which comes to nearly identical projections as 538, via a different methodology, is Princeton Election Consortium…. http://election.princeton.edu/
Opening NFL game kicking off now at 7.07ET on NBC (and Sky Sports 1).
This will affect audience for the warm-up speeches before McCain. The longer the game goes, the less coverage of the Convention on NBC and the lower the audience on other networks.
If the game goes to a lengthy overtime, would McCain speech be delayed?
111 Where is Joe Biden? This AM he was all over the TV morning news shows - actually saw his talking head on three simultaneously. So never fear, you’re going to hear more from Joe, especially if you are a likely voter.
121- Didn’t we already see an extended post here recently featuring the caterwaulings of Anne Kilkenny? Somehow, she’s managed to make cantankerous Harry Reid and Nancy “head driller” Pelosi look like Little Mary Sunshines.
Some on here diss Jack W’s analyses of teh likely outcome of the US election: I personally went through oddscheckers odds on each state 2 days ago and came incredibly close to what,within a day,Jack W was saying;an electoral college victory of c.311-227 for Barack Obama.
As was accurately stated some weeks ago,beyond a very narrow 51-49 window (ie 2000 and 2004),states DO fall-FWIW,I would say a popualar vote victory of 3 (+/-1%),and a ECV victory for Barack Obama of between 285 and 325 against McCain EVs of 213-253 is a likely spectrum,IMHO,of where events will unfold in the small hours of November 5th (Greenwich Mean Time :wink:)
123 - The warmup speeches are pretty worthless except in their impact on the floor of the convention. And who really cares now that the red-meat GOP have Sarah Palin to jolly thenm up? The only audience that counts is the TV audience.
Must say that one delight of yesterday was having Rudy Guilianai give a pretty decent speech that has gotten just about zippo coverage except perhaps in the back pages of the New York Times (as an historical record). Rudy is now following the model of his doppelganger Douglas Macarthur: fading away.
111 - Says someone who clearly hasn’t got a clue as to what Biden has been doing….
119. It’s something like that. I forget the details! I thought the £150 was a tie with both on fewer than 269. A 269:269 tie was £100, and both sub-269 (non-tie) was £50… Don’t worry, it’s recorded somewhere, and won’t happen anyway…
121 What books did she try to ban? I would have thought that a cionservative would have stood by the First Amendment.
125 - if it was already posted, I apologize. Cauterwailing is fair comment. But she was (unlike Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, the Pope, the Queen, yours truly and S&S) actually “present at the creation” of most of the Palin Saga.
Of course there is another side to the story. But clearly there are a few inconvenient facts imbeded in the emerging Palin Legend as it is being massaged by the McCain campaign and the RNC.
BTW, Wisconsin as the PA of the Midwest is an interesting concept, makes a lot of sense if you don’t try to push it too far.
123 - The Giants are going to have won this game by half time though.
121. In view of all that, how come she has an 80% approval rating?
124, 127 - Thanks for that. Clearly I’ve got the wrong impression. Presumably he is only off the radar on the blogs and forums I have been reading where it seems to be Obama v Palin pretty well all the time for the past week.
Is he doing the ‘attack dog’ thing or following the elder stateman/kindly old uncle type of approach?
I still think Obama should avoid facing off against Palin as much as possible because he is not campaigning to be a better VP.
132 - only 20% gave a shyte?
Anne Kilkenny says in her statement that Palin “is enormously popular; in every way she’s like the most popular girl in middle school. Even men who think she is a poor choice and won’t vote for her can’t quit smiling when talking about her because she is a “babe”.”
No doubt that majority of Wasilla citizenry supported her tenure in city office, and as Governor. No doubt they are proud of her metoric rise. BUT also clear many are still scratching their heads over her selection as GOP VP nominee.
132 - Also clear that Sarah Palin has considerable charisma. If anyone doubted it, last night should have settled that argument.
133 - Think he’s going after Palin some but more after McCain. Which is smart.
132 - She doesn’t, in any case wouldn’t you like someonw who got you a four figure sum free because they get oil companies to pay out to Alaskans?
“Her approval ratings are high–65 percent, or so–but down from 80 percent earlier in her term. Most Alaskan’s haven’t watched her as closely as most reporters or legislators. If you took a poll of reporters and legislators I expect her approval rating would be down in the teens or twenties. ”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2008/08/29/DI2008082902052.html
133 - He’s attacking McCain, the only major players attacking Palin are Democrat women, incuding Sebelius today. That appears to be good tactics.
136 - The per capital oil royalty payments to bona fide Alaska residents have been around in Alaska for a long time. And are a HUGE deal. What helped Palin was the boom in energy prices, which boost the fund. Believe Palin was criticised for not putting excess into long-term funding instead of short-term payout. But also believe most Alaskans supported the Gov on that one. And hard to see how to make it an issue voters in other 49 states will give a flying fig about.
Hoy angry at political ‘cash-ins’
“Olympic cycling hero Chris Hoy has said he feels politicians have attempted to “cash in” on his success in Beijing.
Hoy said he was annoyed at being drawn into the debate on whether there should be a separate Scottish Olympics team.
He said: “I ride a bike, I’m not a politician. Politicians want to be involved so that they can get some sort of association with your success.”
Well,its 12.53 am Friday 5th September British Summer Time-so in 61 days less 1 hour (due to correction for Greenwich Mean Time),I expect 1,000,000 post/hour here
(Hopefully I’ll be being scraped off my lounge ceiling as an Obama victory becomes a certainty!!)
vote-2008 reporting by-elections in Melton (Lab hold over BNP and Tories, little change in any vote shares since 2007) and Barrow (Tory hold over Lab and BNP, 5% swing to Tories since earlier in 2008). Decent turnout in both.
There are plotters, but there’s no credible plot - yet
“Anthony Wells, of UK Polling Report, has cautioned against predicting the short-term effect of a change of leader, since so much depends on timing and circumstance. But Mike Smithson, of politicalbetting.com, has noted that questions naming an alternative leader, similar to that asked by Populus, proved to be prescient about Mr Brown before he took over. According to a dozen Populus polls, the Tory lead was about 4.5 points higher, on average, on the basis that Labour was led by Mr Brown rather than by Tony Blair. As Labour’s ratings have plunged, these questions have looked like an accurate forewarning of voters’ doubts about Mr Brown’s suitability as Prime Minister.”
Fearless Prediction
IF John McCain is elected President, he is going to find VP Sarah Palin to be a huge burr up the presidential butt. Note her history indicates that she has broken with just about every senior political figure who gave her a leg up, with Frank Murkowsky and Ted Stevens being just the most prominent examples.
IF Sarah Palin is elected Vice President, then expect to see her attempt to add John McCain’s head to her game trophy wall.
“What books did she try to ban? I would have thought that a conservative would have stood by the First Amendment.”
That didn’t stop conservatives getting ‘The Wizard of Oz’ pulled from several libraries during the McCarthy period Stars and Stripes thinks so highly of. Yes, ‘The Wizard of Oz’ — socialist propaganda, don’t you know…
NY Giants are crushing the Washington Redskins.
Good for outsiders (Obama, Palin) but bad for beltway bandits (Biden); but which is McCain?
OR
Bad for Native Americans (Todd Palin) or people of color (Barack Obama)?
143 - If you ever get the chance, read Salman Rushdie’s essay on the Wizard of Oz, at the start of his collection ‘Step across this line’. One of the finest literary essays I’ve ever read.
the only major players attacking Palin are Democrat women, incuding Sebelius today. That appears to be good tactics.
Very good Tactics indeed it would seem so good as they are stealth and under the Radar!
Biden really is going from the Kinnock manual - he starts attacking Bush over Guantamino??? Think Biden has selected a Boomerang there: McCain majorly opposed guantamino and all the *abuses* indeed it does McCain’s job for him! Added to which Guantamino was public before 2004, which means Biden is saying 52% of voters from that elecetion are wrong. The Guy picks the wrong subject on the wrong field IMO. Biden is as shit as Kinnock!
Obama is relient on kinnock (Sorry Biden) for experience - think Obama will feel as though victory is in the air on election night to see it snatched from under hise nose like Kinnock!
143 - one theory holds that Wizard of Oz is a text in favor of free coinage of silver as advocated by Populists (and western Republicans from silver mining states) against the gold standard.
You’re gobbling yer medicine chest on this one. Off base that is. But carry on.
144 - The Redskins are playing absolutely crap. It’s time for Palin to get in there and change Washington.
lol
149. Maybe they will have some half-time beef jerky?
I had gone to bed once by the way but the noisy devils downstairs had the telly on - if it’s not that it is noises in the middle of the night! No wonder i drink! (to excess!)
Might even sat up for the mcCain speech - If he says he is reporting for duty…….
143,147 - think about it: the yellow brick road leading to the Wizard who is a fraud.
And Dorothy (Kansas farm girl = virtuous agrarian citizenry) ends up in league with:
–Tin Man = labor (needed heart to empathise with their agrarian bros, even though gold standard helped “industry” gave the trusts too much power)
–Scarecrow = farmers (needed brain to understand they are being screwd by the trusts and the GOP)
–Cowardly Lion = Democratic Party (needed courage in order to fight the combined power of the Republicans and the trust, to be something more than a bunch of hacks and windbags)
Believe that’s the main lines of the theory but there is much, much more!
150 - she could carry District of Columbia on that platform.
151 - think it’s another two hours until JMcC takes the podium.
They’re showing Rudy Giuliani’s speech on the BBC (which does repeats, even when the Convention is going live).
It is, without doubt, the worst-written and worst-delivered speech of the year, beating even Nancy Pelosi and John McCain.
I can see why, the more people met him, the less popular he got.
155 - They loved it in St Paul. Inside the hall that is.
EX-PM and President Bush allie in Love child drama with French Minister:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4674060.ece
Maybe because he is different to all the other speakers - nice to hear something in a Yankee accent perhaps.
He’s a decent performer, but he’s clearly not read this poorly-written submission before. All the literate speechwriters must have been working on Palin’s.
155. I never liked Rudy either!
153. Does it go down well there or something?
What does beef jerky taste like? I have only ever heard of it in Trading Places i think! Eddie Murphy could do a great Barack Obama if OB wan koibe wins! Or Steve Martin could do McCain!
Just out of interest why does Washington DC always vote Democrat?
apart I think in 1984?
161 - Even in 1984. Because it is about 55% African American.
I’m off to bed. Good night all.
161 - Simple. It is massively urban and about 50% AA.
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