How should Brown respond to this?
September 4th, 2008-
Is is time for a McCain-style gamble?
Charles Clarke, the former Home Secretary, has launched another not-so-subtle attack on Gordon Brown, claiming in the New Statesman that Labour “is destined to disaster if we go on as we are” and that “we will not allow that to happen”.
In spite of some fairly significant pressing concerns about the Party and the Government, fully a quarter of the article is given over to complaints that the term ‘Blairite’ is being used as a slur - to demonise those who disagree with the Prime Minister, by tying them to an imagined agenda of social policy out-of-step with the Labour Party. Clarke concludes his article with two telling sentences: “There is no Blairite ideology” and “similarly, there is no Blairite plot”.
It is difficult to know how Brown should respond to this. It is not the first time that the former Home Secretary has issued a rather insipid challenge, and in the absence of any serious threat amidst the rumblings, I am not sure that dignifying Clarke with a direct response would be wise. And yet he needs to do something - to simply allow this sort of talk the license to snipe away at his Premiership diminishes him as the leader of his party.
So what response? Much has been made of the re-shuffle that never was, and might now never be. Miliband and Purnell apparently said they would resign rather than move, other Labour stalwarts have threatened revolt if former-Tory Sean Woodward replaced Des Browne at Defence. Now Alistair Darling is giving two-day interviews to the previously-Brownite Guardian, to justify his position in public. The received wisdom is that, with a by-election pending, the PM is simply too weak politically to reshuffle his Cabinet.
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Across the Atlantic, there have been plaudits for John McCain’s choice of Vice Presidential running-mate - a selection so bold, that even some serious concerns could not override the game-changing nature of his decision. Even where people questioned the prudence of picking Sarah Palin, no-one could deny it was gutsy. I wonder if things are now so stagnant for Brown, that he needs to do something similarly drastic.
What would be as monumental for Brown as picking Palin? I think he needs to ‘throw an elbow’ and to do it on live television. To put one of the Big Beasts of his Cabinet to the sword would remind the Party of the ruthessness he showed in attaining the Premiership, albeit that has been absent in occupying Number 10. It would give him some momentum, and perhaps quell the less-than-committed attempts to oust him.
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If Charles Clarke is right, and there is no alternative Blairite social agenda, and no Blairite plot, what does Brown have to lose by moving against David Milband in a reshuffle?
Of course, there is a chance that Miliband might immediately raise an army of 70-odd backbenchers’ signatures against the PM, but I’m not sure that he has that sort of grassroots support within the PLP. If shortly after Conference, having been forced to swear loyalty to the PM in a prime time address, would a complete volte-face be politically possible for the Foreign Secretary? It would look like bitterness if he had been sacked from the Cabinet - and if it were the result of being offered a promotion (to Chancellor) over which he chose to resign, he would perhaps look somewhat petty. After his Guardian article, I am less convinced than ever that David Miliband is prepared to move openly against Brown.
The fact is that Charles Clarke is symptomatic of the attacks that the PM receives from his own side - no alternative, of policy or of leader, is ever publically suggested. Nigel Griffiths said today that “In 2007, he [Clarke] and Alan Milburn set up a think tank called 2020 Vision. It didn’t think, but it certainly tanked”. I wonder if ‘Blairite’ opposition to Brown has been, as I think Charles Clarke admits, completely mischaracterised and overstated, and whether moving to crush them publically might just be the filip that Brown’s premiership needs.
But would he dare?
Morus
MessageSpace Advertising
Today’s Rasmussen:
Obama leads 50-45 (same as yesterday)
Without leaners, it’s 47-43 (was 48-43)
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
He simply doesn’t have the guts to act.
He will carry on taking ‘the right decisions’ for the ‘long term’.
He cannot see past his blinkers. He never has and he never will.
Counterfactual question: If Thatcher had fired Howe, rather than Howe resigning, would it have changed the outturn? Howe would not have had the automatic opportunity of a resignation speech to attack her and she would have been seen as decisive and tough. Would it have saved her?
Jack, from last thread; looking at the Rasmussen tracker figures there are two days falling off the tracker tomorrow and the day after which looked very strong for Obama, given that these are also at the height of the GOP conference it looks likely to create an enhanced switch somewhat and this will no doubt fuel the media narrative. People trading on this might also want to take advantage of that.
To answer my own question at 3: Yes, it would have changed the sequence of events, but it would not have changed the outcome.
Similarly, Brown could change the short-term weather by sacking Miliband or Darling, but it won’t change the fact that Hurricane Election is heading his way and his levees are broken.
Clarke is right. Brown has to step up to the plate, change everything, display courage, vision and fresh policy; or he has to go. Ergo, he has to go.
Problem is, there is no mechanism. Ergo, he only has to go in 21 months time. Ergo, UK up Brown creek with paddle broken.
3 - Good question. If they’re are thinking of jumping, why not push them and show everyone that they shouldn’t stand so close to the edge.
2. He doesn’t have the guts to face an election, but moving against his internal enemies used to be the reason that Brown was feared in the party. If he can’t even reshuffle his cabinet, it is as good as over, isn’t it? So why not go down in style?
The interesting thing is that the game is well and truly up when your best soundbites are against your own side. Everyone remembers the ‘in office but not in power’ quip from Lamont, a very good soundbite against his own. The Griffiths quote is rather a good soundbite too but the problem is the same, that Labour has turned in on itself and the quote is directed at a fellow Labourite. All this leaves Cameron free to travel the country and the world as the coming man.
Can I just clarify: the question isn’t “Will sacking Miliband save Brown?” because I don’t think it will.
The question is “what does Brown have to lose by moving against Miliband?”
I’d love to know how people think Miliband would respond if Brown just told him - “I’m moving you to the Treasury - accept or resign”
Charles Clarke is an odious man, one of my least favourite ever politicians.
And yet he is right, if Brown stays Labour are heading for disaster. They may well be headed for disaster anyway, but it is beyond me how the labour party are tolerating their current predicament with such equanimity (on the surface at least) Could be a very interesting party conference. Any PBers going?
8 - I think he would accept to be honest.
8 ‘The question is “what does Brown have to lose by moving against Miliband?’
Probably not much. But I don’t see that he’s got much to gain either. It wouldn’t stop people like Charles Clarke pointing out (quite rightly) that things aren’t going too well for Labour. At least at the moment Miliband seems to be keeping quiet.
I don’t have any particular desire to see the Tories in charge again, but the present situation does make me ponder whether there should be some sort of constitutional mechanism by which such a rudderless government could be ousted and an immediate general election called.
It doesn’t strike me as doing the governance of the country any good to have the sort of drift that characterises the present period, and was evident in 1995-97.
In previous years, before the party system became so entrenched, a government in such dire straights as this would surely have fallen some time ago. Now that the individual members are so reliant on their party affiliation for their membership of the House, the system no longer works.
Any ideas?
8. If he failed to accept the challenge he would surely suffer the political fallout in a future leadership contest. Labour won’t want a fairweather leader. It might be a very smart move of Brown’s to offer him it.
4 ukpaul. Perhaps. However most of yesterdays tracker did not include the Palin speech. Nevertheless I’m now factoring in a McCain house bias in the Rasmussen figures of one percentage point following their adjustment of party ID.
Prior to the conventions I felt a smallish bounce, 3/4%, was likely for both candidates and as you were was likely next week - ie tied. Now I feel Obama might come out with a small but useful lead running into the first debate.
8
The various questions can be summarised as: “will relaunch number 23 be any better than 1 to 22″
and “what will be the difference”
Gorodn whilst PM cannot change policies. To do so will be an admission of failure .. and worse still an admission that he , Gordon, was WRONG.
Gordon is never wrong.
So it is more of the same.. tracor production, getting on with the job etc.
He has no choice as his mindset will not allow it.
When you are convinced you are doing the right thing, anything else is wrong.
As for the PLP? They voted for him. they are stuck with him.
Appoint in haste repent at leisure.
15 - They didn’t vote for him that’s one of the problems!
I’ve been struggling to rise to the challenge of thinking what Brown could do that would be (as Morus suggests in his article) “so bold, that even some serious concerns could not override the game-changing nature of his decision.” I don’t think a reshuffle or moving Miliband around would meet that challenge. He needs to do something more dramatic.
Defect to the SNP maybe?
Now this is my kind of trade union advert.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3mw49mk_x0
12. Up to a point - when party structures were looser, a lot of governments collapsed well before their terms were up. But that was also due to a convention - since abandoned - that governments were obliged to resign if defeated in the House of Commons on any substantive measure. That convention made governments vulnerable to ‘guerilla attacks’ on what today appear rather footling measures such as sugar import bills etc.
Today you would need something like a recall system but somehow I don’t see that being introduced…
17 - Calling an election would be pretty game-changing, I think. Which direction it changed the game in is anybody’s guess but it would alter all the current assumptions.
Paddy Power - Will Gordon win his seat?
“Singles Only. Applies to Gordon Brown winning the constituency of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath in the next UK General Election. Bets void should he not stand in the next general election for that constituency.”
Yes 1/100
No 20/1
http://www.paddypower.com
21 - I was asking about this on the last thread. What do you think, Stuart?
“Sinn Féin and the DUP have described two hours of talks aimed at breaking the political deadlock as “useful”.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/northern_ireland/7597160.stm
22. Richard Nabavi
Are you thinking of investing some of the old beer tokens?
9. The most interesting thing about Charles Clarke’s flicking-of-Gordon-Brown’s-ears-and-then-running-away is that fatty Clarke himself admits that: there is no great “ideological” split between the Blairites and the Brownites and the Ballsies etc.
This is significant, he’s right. There is no great ideological debate within, or emanating from, the Labour party. AND THAT IS THE CRUX..
All the various leaders who might replace Brown simply offer more of the same: hapless boring authoritarian centrist sort-of-europhile tax-and-spend social democratic multiculti PC tweaking of the Thatcherite economic consensus.
Miliband or Straw, Balls or Burnham, they all believe the same tedious guff. And this guff is what has been rejected, quite fiercely, by the electorate.
People are bored of being lectured. They are bored at being regulated. They wanna pay LESS tax. They don’t like the EU. They think public spending has been wasted. They dislike multiculturalism. They dislike mass immigration. They loathe political correctness. They don’t want to be fined for overfilling their bins.
So it’s the entire New Labour project that has been rejected, which is why Labour are screwed, because none of them has the guts to admit this central problem - and fair enough, cause it would mean admitting the total failure of everything that they stand for.
Moreover, the only vaguely radical new ideas within Labour are telling the party to tax even more, integrate further into Europe, waste more public money - all policies diametrically opposed to the wishes of the voters.
There. That’s the key to it all. Sure Labour have a vastly unpopular leader, but they ALSO have vastly unpopular policies. Therefore dumping Brown is pointless, as it would only serve to reveal their deep underlying unpopularity as a party and a movement. Right now, Brown is actually a good psychological crutch for many of them - they can all blame poor Gordo, and pretend he’s the sole problem. But they’re in denial.
It ain’t just Brown. It’s Labour. They’re finished.
O/T - Not sure this is a good thing to be contemplating on behalf of the putative Obama presidency.
http://tinyurl.com/5kpd9m
“Of course, there is a chance that Miliband might immediately raise an army of 70-odd backbenchers’ signatures against the PM, but I’m not sure that he has that sort of grassroots support within the PLP.”
The deadline for a leadership challenge this year expires at midnight tonight…
20. Great idea. Call a snap autumn election to coincide with the Tory Conference and say “See, I was planning one all along, you just got the year wrong, losers!”
21…20/1 is a stonking price!
The look on Ed Balls yesterday, when asked if he was the next C of E: Smug git! An equally dramatic move by Brown to that of Palin would be the appointment of two deputy PM’s - Mr Miliband & Margret Beckitt. They would not both have to have the term deputy PM of course: one could be first Secretary of state. Mili could stay at the Foriegn office but be well and truelly put under the thumb. Beckitt would be a Prescott type figure in appealing to the Old Labour vote as ironically that seems to have been left to wither of late.
Brown won’t do it though as he would rather play silly sods with his crayons, felt-tip pens and paper.
Very, very good:
SeanT:
People are bored of being lectured. They are bored at being regulated. They wanna pay LESS tax. They don’t like the EU. They think public spending has been wasted. They dislike multiculturalism. They dislike mass immigration. They loathe political correctness. They don’t want to be fined for overfilling their bins.
I suspect much of it will be America’s loath in 4 years IF Obama is elected…
19 Maybe something like the individual recall of MPs. You could have it set up so that you had a set timescale (1 month for eg) to collect as many registered voters in the constituency as originally voted for the MP to force a by election. After 5-10 of those the government would get the message and just call and election you’d hope. If not they’ll eventually lose their mjority in the HoC.
31. Obama being elected 50/50 at best!
Race will be a real driver for those who make it into the polling booth. Alas it will not be a positive driver in most cases.
20
Brown to hang on until after the Euro elections next year,the results will give him no choice but to go,Jack the man of straw to take over as caretaker leader for the final few months.
27 - I was thinking of your view about the Labour Party impediments when I wrote that sentence, Rod. I just don’t see how Miliband challenges Brown - he has no means of doing so.
O/T - I’m rewatching the Palin speech. It is phenomenal - one of the best I’ve seen at a Convention.
Excellent article Morus, you make some interesting points and I agree that Miliband and the Blairite factions within the party may have been misjudged. You get the feeling that there has been no gathering of their banner behind one group or challenger either.
“What would be as monumental for Brown as picking Palin? I think he needs to ‘throw an elbow’ and to do it on live television. To put one of the Big Beasts of his Cabinet to the sword would remind the Party of the ruthessness he showed in attaining the Premiership”
The problem with that suggestion is that Brown would need some real courage to do something, which in effect resembles Major’s stand against the plotters within the Conservative party. Brown was extremely ruthless in his quest to get where he did, but he never had the guts to through the gauntlet down openly, instead he has preferred to brief and plot behind an anonymous sources and closed doors.
Brown’s position reminds me more IDS rather than Major despite the fact that Major was PM and IDS was leader of the opposition. Brown’s authority is totally shot when you have two government PPS’s on newsnight debating opposing views on a tax on the energy companies. Its not the Blairites, but rather those on the left who seem to be cause Brown the most damage, there is a certain irony in that.
29 How many of his constituents do we need to sign up?!
A few BoJo stories:
GQ Politician of the Year
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/india-news/boris-johnson-bags-politician-of-the-year-title-at-gq-awards_10091985.html
Boris: “It hardly rains in London”
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2008/09/03/boris-johnson-claims-is-hardly-rains-in-london-115875-20722002/
Above inflation Tube/bus fare rises, blamed (quite clumsily IMHO) on Ken’s electioneering:
http://www.mayorwatch.co.uk/Boris-announces-above-inflation-fare-increase-article_id-1781.html
Cutting transport plans he deems wasteful
http://www.london-se1.co.uk/news/view/3476
34. If Brown is to go next summer after the Euro elections, why don’t Labour just have a GE and then get rid of him? Straw would have the same problem as Brown - Caretaker leader for full term??? (Hypothetical questions!
).
36. If Brown wanted to shut Clarke up - Why not just withdraw the whip?
35 Morus. You very sad man !!
32. Interesting idea - nominations for the first MP to be recalled?
37. SNP canvassers are probably signing up Gordon’s constituents as we speak!
Or at least they will be as soon as they have finished knocking doors in neighbouring Glenrothes.
What a weird place Gordon’s head-space must be to inhabit. He has spent a lifetime crawling through the Amazon jungle in pursuit of El Dorado. And against all odds, he found it! By God, he found it!
But before he could show its gleaming magnificence to anybody else, an army of ghosts and trolls and goblins and dwarves has moved in - and started dismantling every single sign of it, ingot by ingot. He is a man watching his life’s work being taken apart in slow motion. All to a soundtrack of his silent screams.
Whatever stunt, and in this context a reshuffle would be a stunt, Brown tries, it will most likely backfire. He and his advisers have shown themselves to be cackhanded when they have to perform in public, rather than in the behind the scenes plotting they apparently excelled in under Blair. As PM he seems to have no idea about presentation, which, as Steve Richards pointed out in his Indcependent piece today, he seemed to be quite good at while at the Treasury.
I still believe that a reshuffle would play badly, since there is no real reason for it, and no minister, Darling included, is under such pressure or damaged so badly that it needs to happen, so it would be purely for political puposes. I also still believe that some minsters might refuse to be moved (Darling, Miliband, Johnson, Hutton, Purnell apparently) and if they went to the backbenches any of them would be dangerous, Howe-style. Brown may be desperate, or rash, but he cannot calculate the consequences of his actions, and his dithering and cautious nature should win out. Post conference, however, you cannot rule out the delegation of party elders.
The man is clearly deluded
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7597276.stm
35 — “O/T - I’m rewatching the Palin speech. It is phenomenal - one of the best I’ve seen at a Convention.”
I agree. I hope it will be effective.
It might, especially as the US media [did] such a grand job this last week of lowering expectations by portraying Governor Palin - whoops, I mean Hick-Burg Mayor Palin - as a hillbilly know-nothing permapregnant ditz, half of whose 27 kids are the spawn of a stump-toothed uncle who hasn’t worked since he was an extra in Deliverance. — M. Steyn
41 - Guilty as charged, m’lud!
45. He still thinks that by denying there’s a problem he’s dealing with it, when in actual fact he just looks stupid. We are in trouble, the government is in massive debt, and all he can say is everything will be fine.
Returning to the idea of seeking a Palin-like shock to the system, I can’t see how a reshuffle will achieve this unless someone completely off the wall in appointed to a hugely signficant position.
The current cabinet is hardly packed with charismatic big hitters. Those who have left the cabinet over the past decade are pretty much tainted.
The only name I can think of is Frank Field - a genuine free-thinking maverick. Put him in No 11 and see what happens.
42 Ed Balls? Quentin Davies just for comedy value? Brown? Any of a hundred or more unpleasant non-entities on the government benches?
46.
Brown is Barking mad! At least he is keeping the Felt Tip Pen, Crayon and mobile phone industry in business. I wonder if he has started on colouring books yet?
Maybe I could do something that will help the penny drop with Brown:
I could do a colour in book of a man in a house, going outside digging a trench, standing in it - filling it with petrol and then doing a party trick: Blowing his head off and igniting the fire!!!!
50 The flurry of mobile phones hitting the dividing wall between No 10 and 11 would render the whole structure unsafe!
I double Frank Field is on Gordon’s Christmaas Card list. Having a free thinker in the cabinet wouldn’t be top of Gordon’s agenda either - they might want to do something on their own, or disrupt the tractor production
1 Tomorrows figures will be the key. The report on Rasmussen (the pollster in the US I trust far more than any other) states almost all interviews were done before last nights speech. If McCain is to get any bounce from this convention, the next two or three days are when we should see it.
If Obama still has a 3-5% lead by the weeknd, he will be in pole position, if it’s all square or McCain is ahead, then it’s advanatage McCain in terms of momentum, and the fact even the reliable pollsters seem to slightly overestimate the Dems position. Ill be also keeping an eye on the next batch of state polls from Nevada, Ohio, Colorado and Virginia, If Obama pulls away in any of them, McCain has a problem, if not, then again i’d say it would be advantage McCain. I may be proved wrong, but if these states are in to close to call territory in the last weeks of the election, I suspect McCain will win them.
51. There are a lot of candidates, for sure. Davies would be a good one - it seems especially appropriate that the voters should have the chance to chuck out pond life of his ilk.
46.”Britain is well placed to weather the “first financial crisis of the new global age” thanks to Labour’s handling of the economy, Gordon Brown has said.”
And he says that with a straight face after the news yesterday that we are in the weakest position of the G7?
24 Stuart - Well, it did cross my mind. Losing Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath may seem improbable, but at 20-1… After all, Gordon Brown is even less popular than Labour as a whole, and we’ve already seen the super-safe seat of Glasgow East fall, albeit at a by-election not a GE. Also, consider a scenario where Brown resigns as Leader but stands again as a backbencher - how popular would he then be even amongst diehard Labour supporters? On the other hand, if he remains as Leader, wrecking the party in the process, would be be any more popular? Not to mention tactical voting against him.
O/T - Can’t remember who it was that was claiming that the US was suffering more than most economies and more than the UK, but read this and weep!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7598306.stm
[57] - One problem might be that there are likely to be a dozen or so random chancers standing against the PM. These might well be expected to pick up a couple of percentage points between them.
39
Because the 100 or so Labour MP’s that will lose their seats may still think that a change of leader may save some of them from the dole and secondly they will want to hang onto their salaries and expenses gravy train until the bitter end.
Strawman would try to maintain the Labour core vote (similar to Howard in 05)and minimise the scale of the defeat.
12. how are you defining “rudderless” though? i can think of several times when such a system might have triggered in the last few decades, and now is not one of them.
the government is well behind in the polling, of course, and losing byelections, of course, but it is implementing policies (some of them not very good) and its majority in the commons is pretty robust.
no democracy could function if a snap election could be forced on these criteria.
32. unfortunately this is completely unworkable for many reasons - but for a start, many (most?) MPs are elected with less than 50% of votes - so the recall could be instant
Palin Power
Rasmussen :
–> 51% Say Reporters Are Trying To Hurt Palin;
–> 39% Say She Has Better Experience Than Obama
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/51_say_reporters_are_trying_to_hurt_palin_39_say_she_has_better_experience_than_obama
Go baby, Go!
Clarke could help Labour reconnect with English voters - he could persuade Brown to set up an English Parliament and that really would shot the Tory Fox, but I doubt he will do it.
Anglophobia, anti-Englishness and anti-white racism seem to be a requirement to become a Labour MP these days, so no it wont happen. 68% of English people want an English Parliament and 59% want full independence. This English nationalism is mild at the moment but we are starting to get very angry, particularly when Scotland is about to scrap that dreadful Council Tax in favour of a much fairer system thanks to devolution.
The government’s deliberate anti-English policies are why Labour is heading into the abyss, the economy is not the cause.
54. i believe we will see mccain bounce up x%, and then fall back 1-2% in the following days
Politico: Clinton aides: Palin treatment sexist
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13129.html
46. Given new car sales are at the lowest since 1966 and house prices have fallen at the fatest rate in the last year since the creatioon of the Figures from Halifax.
I think we can safely conclude that Brown must be completly off his head. Seriously though - I don’t think he can handle the pressure: they don’t have loaded guns on display in number 10 do they as I would advise they are removed pretty soon.
65.
Just last spring, Palin herself scoffed when Hillary Clinton’s campaign complained about a double standard in coverage.
“When I hear a statement like that coming from a woman candidate with any kind of perceived whine about that excess criticism, or maybe a sharper microscope put on her, I think, ‘Man, that doesn’t do us any good, women in politics, or women in general, trying to progress this country,’ ” Palin said.
quite simply, the republicans just don’t sound credible when crying sexism, and if they overplay that card (which they are doing), it is going to rebound on them. remember, when clinton tried it during the primaries she got shot down by everyone.
63 - francis - I’ve posted on here before that offering a referendum on more powers to the Scottish and Welsh executives (which would be popular in both countries) could be mirrored by a devolution referendum for England after the next election.
I think this would go down well, and would put the Conservatives in a bit of a pickle. Do they stay as unionists and defy populism (I think the idea is popular if not very well thought through by many), or do they commit to it, knowing that they will likely be in government and expected to deliver it?
Do other people agree that an English Parliament would be something of a problem for Cameron?
63, ‘twould be a clever move. Which is why it won’t happen.
66 It won’t be Clarke firing a gun at Brown it will be the electorate. The Scots don’t want him, the Welsh don’t want him and neither do us English. Perhaps he could go to the USA or move to a communist country where he will be happy and enjoy as much socialism as he wants.
I cannot believe Biden has said this:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/barackobama/2680908/Barack-Obama-would-consider-criminal-charges-against-Bush-administration-over-Guantanamo-Bay.html
Think this is the first gaffe of the “fall campaign” - It shows the democratic strategy to be counter-productive: 52% of US voters put Bush in the Whitehouse after it was known that Guantamino existed. This will surely fire up the repuplican base up further as in 2004 (They won a majority despite pundatry opinion that Bush would win). Secondly it undermines Obama’s judgement for picking Biden. The last few days has been hailed by the dems as a step forward. Think they have now taken two steps back!
65 - More surprisingly, Joe Biden has made precisely the same point:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/09/bidens-gloves-c.html
Rasmussen Poll: In a head-to-head match-up, men prefer Sarah Palin over Clinton 49% to 45% according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Women prefer the former first lady over Palin 57% to 35%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/woman_president_clinton_vs_palin_52_to_41
71 - The more I hear about Biden the more I like him. Good man.
68 I used to be a Labour supporter and member and was very surprised devolution stopped. I warned the party to drop the regional assemblies but they did’nt listen, I advised them that they should all of England a national parliament but all I got was Anglophobia from the top - mainly Scottish Labour activists. I left Labour and started tactically voting with the Conservatives and UKIP as they were offering some alternative to a parliament.
The Conservatives can play the English card and still be unionist, an English Parliament may actually strengthen the union but indifference to it will certainly lead to independence soon.
60. Strawman would try to maintain the Labour core vote (similar to Howard in 05)and minimise the scale of the defeat.
Actually it is more difficult than that - the tories new there base was 166 seats in 2001- 2005 parliament and so could target the most marginal seats.
This time where is the Labour base seats line for the next election 100-150 or 150-200 or 200-250? Difficult to say and once a new PM is in place the GE will need to follow very quickly indeed so near to the end of the current Labour mandate: Weeks.
this is interesting:
Viewing numbers for the second night of the Republican convention in St. Paul, Minn., are out and it’s not particularly good news for the party.
Some 21.5 million people watched the Republican convention Tuesday night, Nielsen reported this afternoon, down slightly from the 22.1 million who watched second night coverage four years ago.
By comparison, almost 26 million people watched the second night of the Democratic convention last week, when Hillary Clinton addressed the crowd.
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/09/03/audience-for-gop-convention-falls-from-2004/
58. they are a lot worse off than us, notwithstanding one or two decent looking indicators recently. expect dow jones meltdown in the autumn
47 — Are you quoting the same Mark Steyn who confidently predicted the Iraqi insurgency would be over by Spring 2004?
77. What’s the margin of error on viewer polls?
DAVID FRUM: Palin’s Working Class Appeal
The Democratic Party runs strongest where formal educational attainment is widest.
…
Shrum derides Palin’s prolife views as extreme and insists that Hillary Clinton’s women voters will reject them. But Hillary Clinton’s women voters – many of them older and less-educated – may discover that they have much more in common with the personal struggles of a Sarah Palin than they do with the personal triumphs of a Barack Obama.
Since 1990, college-educated America has experienced a sexual counter-revolution. The odds of divorce have steeply declined among college-educated women and out-of-wedlock marriage remains uncommon.
To these college-educated women, the life story of the Palin family may seem exotic, even disturbing. In college-educated America, children may get pregnant at 17 — but they do not carry the baby and they do not marry the father. Teen marriage increases the odds of divorce; teen motherhood interferes with education – so educated America frowns on both.
In non-college America, however, it’s still the 1970s. The odds of divorce remain as high as ever, and the rate of out-of-wedlock births among white women has jumped past 25 percent - higher than it was among blacks when Daniel Moynihan diagnosed the crisis of the black family in the 1960s. For many in this group, the Palin story will read like the story of their own families.
With their nomination of Barack Obama, the Democrats have intensified their image as the party of minorities and the upper part of white America. …
By choosing Sarah Palin, Republicans, by contrast, have reasserted their identity as the party of white working-class America - of those who worry about cultural and economic threats to their families.
68. We want a Yorkshire Parliament. I don’t care about London and the south; they can do whatever they want.
78. Ed - Stay off the economics for your own credability:
US has had a booming export economy for the last couple of years due to a weak dollar. The US did not have the public dabt as a proprtion of GDP either. The US has also stimulated demand through big tax cuts and slashing interest rates.
The UK is in a very bad position - Don’t beleive Brown he is talking Bollocks! Who do you believe Brown or the OECD, B of E governor, most independent economists?
82, I’d only vote for a Yorkshire Parliament if we had an independent defence policy. Watch out, Lancashire!
77. Not much in it when Bill and HRC are on the box compared to an unknown from Alaskia don’t you think?
81 - Philippe I assume you just copy and pasted that article in from somewhere? In which case the following phrase is proof that the sub-editor needs to be fired - “The odds of divorce have steeply declined among college-educated women and out-of-wedlock marriage remains uncommon.”
58. It was “ed”.
sporting index commons spreads have shifted today; Tories up four seats, labour down the same. Not a massive move but the biggest for a while
Yes, sorry, I forgot the link :
http://www.theweekdaily.com/article/index/40052/3/3/DAVID_FRUM_Palins_Working_Class_Appeal
–
No, the phrase is correct and coherent in the context.
81. By choosing Sarah Palin, Republicans, by contrast, have reasserted their identity as the party of white working-class America - of those who worry about cultural and economic threats to their families.
but palin has nothing to say on the economy?
87 - Yeah I thought it would smoke the person in question out.
82. T’Parliament has a nice ring to it.
87. It always is Ed!
BBC reporting that a Soldier is refused room at hotel
And Martin Bright has Five stark truths in The New Statesman.
85 - Mind you, one is aiming to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency and the other isn’t. Palin has also had pretty blanket coverage lately and there was apparently a lot of excitement over what she would say.
I don’t think much can be read into it but quite interesting nonetheless.
90. Ironically neither has Obama when contrasted to HRC!
Mind you if the rejuvination in US growth is felt in peoples pockets on the ground, then no wonder Obaam does not make much mention of it.
89 - Wedlock and marriage are synonyms, I even consulted my copy of Roget’s Thesaurus to check. You are either in wedlock or you are not. You are either in a marriage or you are not, and as the two words mean the same thing you cannot possibly by means of any known logic have an out-of-wedlock marriage.
81-LOVE IT-this ain’t over by a long chalk.
97 — You may be right, I would not know. I thought it meant something like re-marriage.
95. That’s crap even from you - So a former two times president and his wife who was in this race is an irrelevance? Didn’t biden speak as well.
If anything it shows that this race is wide open and rather than looking at the figures you present through a Democratic Halo: I would look at it with concern from your point of view.
English Independence now http://www.freeengland.com
Once again, it’s been very telling how few senior Cabinet ministers have come forward in support of Brown over the past 24 hours, following the pretty undisguised attacks on him by Charles Clarke.
By my reckoning that would be…er…um…none, apart from Balls of course, who is probably acting more out of self-preservation than anything else.
94. It seems the Bishop of Rochester may have had a point.
94 - If anyone is in Woking please piss on that hotel for me. This sort of thing makes me apoplectic. Where the f*** are the “Equality and Human Rights Commission” now?? If a hotel in the US treated one of their soldiers like that, it would be burned down before you could say lynch mob. We should do the same.
83. actually i follow the economic releases pretty closely, that is the sphere where i do most of my ‘betting’. i don’t listen to any individual opinion, although i do read a lot of opinion pieces.
my money is where my mouth is, unlike you i suspect.
54 - That’s not quite how bounces usually work, the high point will be the beginning of next week and then what happens in the week after is key. The highpoint of a bounce is not the time to make a snapshot unless you control the election date (Brown’s cockup on this matter being the most glaring mistake as regards this).
62, 65 etc. - You see, you get posts like this and it gives an inaccurate position for those betting, that’s why they are gainsaid, to stop people getting a one sided impression.
On that subject, James Fallows’ take on the speech is much more down to earth, and to my mind, perceptive in looking at any strategy at play here.
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/sarah_palin.php
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/a_word_more_on_palin_and_the_r.php#more
73 - Well, even the liberal bias of women aside that’s a pretty big slap in the face to the idea that she was picked for women, the unfortunate (or fortunate) thing is that a female seen as being a ‘for the guys’ candidate can start to do exactly the opposite of what you might expect in terms of losing, not gaining, women’s support.
If there are a number of make commentators waxing lyrical over her and fewer women relatively then this adds to the problem. My workplace is 95% female by the way, you get used to seeing how these things go down…..
97 - He must have meant out-of-wedlock births or something - but you are right, that’s lazy writing and lazier ’subbing’.
(note for pedants and Giles Coren: ’sub-editing’ is not a verb. The prefix ’sub-’ refers to the editor [noun] not to the activity [editing - a verb] for which the ‘editor’ or ’sub-editor’ is named. The activity of a sub-editor is still editing, but to distinguish, some people like ’subbing’ as a description of what precisely sub-editors do. ‘Subbing’ - a verb describing the activities associated with being junior, particularly in an editorial context).
O/T
Google Chrome: Plus point - it seems to come with its own spell-checker, when for example one is posting on PB.com, are you listening to this Martin?
Negative point - it doesn’t appear to remember one’s “name” and email address from one day to the next.
The worry in the labour party is simply about the competence of the leadership, and as such it isn’t a left-right thing. This summer has been terrible because the Tories have been putting forward all sorts of policy ideas - mostly bollox - without any co-ordinated rebuttal from the govt. The leadership has been banging on about the economic problems, which has served to raise expectations that are now being disappointed. And ironical when you consider that the oil price – one of the big worries – is now falling like a stone.
Gordon will have to give the speech of his life at conference but if it’s anything like the crappy address he gave at the NPF then he’ll disappoint people all over again. He will of course get a “stander” but there is such a thing as a stony-faced ovation.
Oh yes, an excellent put-down from Nigel Griffiths. But I agree with poster no 7.
John Kellett - failing that, somebody could find out their telephone number and post it on the internet.
The most asinine thing about this was their claim that it was ‘a mistake’. A ‘mistake’ is where a member of staff fails to follow the agreed policy and procedure - NOT where the agreed policy is reprehensible in the first place…
Still, maybe we shouldn’t get too aerated - if a member of HM armed forces feels aggrieved by cr@p treatment, I think they should just be allowed to sort it out for themselves, RAMBO-STYLE !!
That’ll learn ‘em !!!
I am so bloody bored of Brown.
That is all.
“If there are a number of make commentators waxing lyrical ”
Should be male, not make!
68
Insofar as Cameron will hopefully be campaigning on ’small’ government with promises of cuts in the number of Quangos, MP’s and assorted hangers-on,to propose a new parliament for England would be difficult.
I believe most people would be happy with English votes for English issues,which doesn’t involve lots of extra expenditure.
In terms of Scotland a referendum on extra powers with less Westminster MP’s or maintaining the existing set up would be fine.
I had thought that the Assembly in Wales was regarded as just a talking shop and not a very popular one at that.Why not have a referendum on whether people in Wales still want it,or keep it as is or with enhanced powers?
102.Under Blair a few years ago you would be knocked over in the stampede in the news studio’s.
In the old days a member of the cabinet who publicly criticised the PM was risking damaging their career. Brown’s in real trouble when cabinet colleagues see coming out in defence or support of him as a damaging future career move.
110. The police decision to (arguably) assault, arrest and detain a man for taking photos of them driving the wrong way down a one-way street was also referred to as a ‘mistake’ if I remember rightly.
108. Might try it!
68 Morus, it is official Scots Tory policy to grant more powers to the Scottish Parliament (not Assembly that’s what the Welsh have). Currently there is an enquiry proceeding supported by the Tories, LibDems and Labour in Scotland looking at what additional powers can and should be ceded to Holyrood. For that reason alone all 3 unionist parties are dancing to Alex Salmond’s agenda. They hope the more powers they cede the more it will lance the SNP boil. However the contrary appears to be happening.
I love Richard Nabavi’s idea of Gordon Brown defecting to the SNP. Only 1 problem with that (if it wasn’t suggested in anything other than jest) Alex Salmond loathes Brown so the SNP would reject his application.
I never much liked Charles Clarke as Home Secretary. I put him in the same group as John Reid, namely a thuggish looking character who behaves like a small town nightclub bouncer bully. However as both he and Ian Gibson face the prospect of Norwich turning blue, no wonder he is carping at Brown.
Just heard bits of the Palin speech again. The voice really is grating to a European but I guess most Americans will love it. I object to her being compared to Margaret Thatcher. Even if elected she will never be a Thatcher. To be fair, CLinton whom I have never liked is far more of a female politician in the Thatcher mould than Sarah Palin ever will be.
I like John McCain and think Barack Obama has some magic dust about him. Biden strikes me as an old duffer but Palin scares the life out of me because I could see her turning into a female George W Bush which probably means more illegal wars, badly thought out foreign policy and interference in the internal politics of so called allied nations.
We managed to make a mess of most of the world in the 19th century and post WWI created the disaster which is the present day middle east. Whether McCain or Obama wins, I just hope he learns from our mistakes in the British Empire and calms down world flashpoints rather than create new ones.
107 - Note for Morus. Isn’t ’sub-editing’ just editing done badly?
116. be warned: you will need more than a spell checker before you can make your first coherent post
117 - “To be fair, CLinton whom I have never liked is far more of a female politician in the Thatcher mould” - wash your mouth out. Now. With hydrofluoric acid.
117 - I didn’t realise that was Scottish Tory policy, cheer Easterross.
113 - JohnF. I wasn’t mad keen on the Assembly when it frst came along, and there was a perception it was just a local talking shop, but now I think it has a much better reputation.
Free prescriptions, economic regeneration, improvement in Cardiff as a gateway to the rest of Wales, bringing hospital cleaning back in-house to beat MRSA - I reckon there is a generally favourable view of the Assembly, and most of that support would agree that the Richards’ Commission Report should be implemented, giving the Senedd similar powers to the Scottish Parliament.
That said, I don’t think there is any appetite left for independence in Wales. Even half of Plaid aren’t that keen any more.
118 - Yes, perhaps!
Labour as collective & individuals must regret contrast between their party and both the Democrats and Republicans in the US.
For both of the American parties have brought forth truly exciting new nominees for their national tickets to balance the usual suspects.
By way of contrast, the most exciting “new” face that Labour is capable of mustering right now is David Milband.
Now I’ve never met either Barack Obama or Sarah Palin. But I’m certain that Miliband ain’t no Obama or Palin.
Well the squaddies who enjoy drunkenly trashing hotel rooms are just reaping what they sow.
111 - Why not try a nice light beige or rusty ochre instead? Here to help.
104
I was asking the same question about the commission for racial equality and what action if any they were going to take following monday’s channel 4 Dispatches programme.
113 If English votes for English Laws was (rightly IMO) brought in you wouldn’t need to reduce the number of Scots MPs, as they just wouldn’t vote on things that didn’t concern their constituents.
As a separate matter you might want to reduce the pay and allowances of the Scots MPs, given that they have less to do….
O/T Robert Reich gives a detailed account of what was required during his vetting prior to being Labor Secretary under Bill Clinton. Extremely thorough and lasted a month. There is no way Sarah Palin could have gone through the same process in such a short period of time:
http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2008/09/vetting.html
122 - I think it has to do with the system in operation. The US system is designed so that it is easier for people to explode onto the scene. Candidates are chosen when the election is fairly imminent wheras in Britain the candidates are usually in place for ages.
125. That body should be first to go in the bonfire of quangos.
“The police decision to (arguably) assault, arrest and detain a man for taking photos of them driving the wrong way down a one-way street was also referred to as a ‘mistake’ if I remember rightly.”
A man whose DNA will be retained on file indefinitely.
123 - It isn’t them reaping what they sow in fairness. It is some considerate fellow visiting an old pal in hospital who is reaping what a small minority of his colleagues sowed. I do have a tiny bit of sympathy for the hotel, but let’s not forget that it was unfair on a decent chap.
46…completely round the bend. get him off the stage!
The video accompanying this piece is a fellow Viet Nam POW’s view of John McCain psychological suitability to be POTUS:
http://dallasmorningviewsblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/09/sarah-palins-de.html
If you have not watched before you should do.
Kevin Maguire in the New Statesman today reveals that last year David Miliband asked Rebekah Wade if it was likely Rupert Murdoch would support him in a leadership contest for the Labour Party. It can hardly be a surprise that the most Europhile member of the cabinet received the answer ‘no’.
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2008/09/pickles-fat-hear-gawper
117 - really great post ER
Can see why both rightwing and lefties dislike your insignt re: Thatcher-Clinton, shades of The Colonel’s Lady and Judy O’Grady. But plenty of truth there which is why it’s so irritating to the Maggie/Hillary lovers/haters.
You have also put yer finger on another very significant McCain-Palin risk factor.
As for Palin’s voice, I find it occassionally irritating. When she hits the note a bit too high there is definitely an element of chalk squeeking on a black board. Am guessing a speech coach is in her future; if still around would recommend whomever got Lady T to lower her voice which was a huge help to her as a public speaker.
128 - good point. But cold comfort to Labour right now.
134. Plus the news that Miliband was so actively courting Murdoch won’t go down well with party members or trade unionists. The fact that Maguire has published it now rather than last year (when much more topical) reveals the degree of Brownite insecurity at the moment.
135 - no, SSI, there’s bugg*r all truth in the insight re: Thatcher-Clinton. Thatcher was a conviction politician who rose to the top on her own merits. Clinton is a candidate who rode her husband’s coat-tails, and is driven only by her own ambition. You might like either/both/neither, but don’t for a second they have anything in common apart from female chromosomes.
128. Yes - you’ve hit the nail on the head. Any fresh leadership contenders that have been in Government will be tarred now with collective resposibility. Any that haven’t been in Government will be asked were they a) not up to it or b) not prepared to serve Labour in that way.
138. they both seem to inspire passion in their opponents more than their supporters, and they may well both be remembered by history as bunglers
138. Agreed. I can see no similarities whatever between them.
139. i don’t think so necessarily, there are plenty of ministers who seem to have done a competent job. their problem, under what has been a semi-presidential system, is low profile, not collective responsibility.
It’s not Brown that’s in trouble, it’s the Labour Party. No change of leader will make any difference this side of the election. Labour cannot claw themselves back by doing anything better. They will only recover when the Tories start to cock up, and I fear that we will have to see them elected before that happens.
There is no Sarah Palin in the Labour Party.
We’ve got a tough couple of years ahead. If GB had any sense he’d call a GE now and lose. The Tories would be unable to turn things around and they would then start to feel the pinch, loose popularity, loose council seats etc. Labour could use the next 4 years to pull itself back together. If it doesn’t it will fall apart, and when the Tories fails (as they inevitably will) it will be the Lib Dems who have most to gain (assuming that they can at least hold onto their current poll rating)
But of course Brown will not call an election and his failure to do so will see Labour’s local council base further eroded over the next two years, making a recovery even more unlikely.
OT the economy
Just when you think it’s all over, you might wish to read this…and realsie why UK banks are - despite the support of a pundit on PB - still a BAD bet…
http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/why-britains-banks-are-on-borrowed-time-13550.aspx
137
Maguire doing Brown’s dirty work.. what a surprise.
126 Gasman, I think you would find most Scots no longer s