In the Sunday papers
September 7th, 2008The leading political stories from today’s papers
Once again, a dismal set of stories for Downing Street, as the fin de siecle feel continues for the government, rather like 1995-7.
There’s another unhelpful intervention from Tony Blair, courtesy of the usual “well-placed sources”. Brown should consider standing down rather than face the humiliation of an election defeat, says the former PM, while the same article reports that Ruth Kelly is expected to quit in a Cabinet reshuffle expected this autumn.
Someone else who might be leaving the government sooner rather than later is health minister Ivan Lewis, after he admitted bombarding a young female aide with suggestive text messages. Meanwhile Frank Field has joined Conservatives such as Nicholas Soames in calling for a limit on the number of immigrants to the UK.
David Cameron outlines his tax plan for “hard-working Britons” in the Sunday Telegraph, while taunting Brown for being weak over Miliband - “if my foreign secretary behaved like that, I’d sack him”. Elsewhere, Unite boss Derek Simpson has launched an outspoken personal attack on Miliband, accusing him, in a stream of swearwords, of being ’smug’ and ‘arrogant’, while there’s been another data loss - this time of details of prison staff.
In the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley argues that while Labour despairs of Brown, “there is no sign of a Brutus”:
-
“Paralysed between fear of the consequences of moving against him and despair about carrying on with him, the Labour party is imprisoned in the worst of all worlds. It is clear that it ought to make a collective decision either to back its leader or to sack him. It is also clear that it is currently incapable of doing either.”
The only silver lining for the government appears to be the avoidance of a rebellion over the fuel windfall tax as reported in the Independent, while in the same paper John Rentoul asks “if the PM is so useless, why is he still in No 10?”
Finally, if you want to back Andy Murray in the US Open or Lewis Hamilton in the Belgian Grand Prix, don’t forget to use the Bestbetting links to help support PB.
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Also, Mail on Sunday reports Militurd has used the Queen’s Flight more often than the Queen of late. Jumped up little weasel.
OT: anyone give Jankovic a chance against Serena?
The Kelly piece actually says that she would refuse a different post - seems a bit unlikely that the Department of Transport is seen as a prize that she couldn’t possibly give up. As for Cameron’s strength in cabinet decisions, how’s his announced intention to welcome Davis back into the Shadow Cabinet getting on?
Had a glance at the Scandinavian scene, courtesy of Angus Reid’s site and some pieces in the local press. The mood in all three countries is to throw the rascals out, with fuel and food prices cited in the olocal papers as significant in each case. The current Danish poll is here:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31669/danish_liberals_drop_to_second_place/
- interestingly, an EU move to overrule a tough Danish policy on refugees hasn’t produced a backlash but a fall in popularity for the parties who were proposing it.
The Sweedish pattern (centre-right government swing to the left) is similar. In Norway, we see the mirror image: a Social Democrat government now well behind its centre-right rivals. Elections in DK and N are next year, I think, not sure about Sweden.
3, when did he announce that he would welcome Davis back? His response in the immeidate aftermath of the resignation was distinctly non-committal.
#1
Whilst I despise the descendant of the Polish traitor that was Samuel Miliband, your argument is flawed. Politicians have access to the QF - just think of DM’s predecessor, Margaret Beckett - and the Queen’s overseas engagements have been reduced since turning eighty. There is an argument for a new, purpose-built Royal Yacht of HM, but we will have to wait for that (not least as the Navy would probably struggle to crew it).
As for Mr Lewis, that is a serious offence. Can’t wait to hear Harbint’s reaction if no action is taken against him!
3
Nick , the mere fact that she supposedky has said it is significant is it not?
US Elections
Another very interesting post by Paul M:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/06/is-now-the-moment-to-resume-spread-betting/#comment-765181
YouGov/Sunday Times Scotland
Westminster voting intention
Sample size: 1355
(% change from YouGov/SNP Aug 08)
SNP 34% (-2%)
Lab 32% (+3%)
Con 17% (-1%)
LD 13% (n/c)
Pump those into the Electoral Calculus Scottish Westminster seat calculator and you get:
Lab 32 seats (-8)
SNP 16 seats (+10)
LD 8 seats (-3)
Con 2 seats (+1)
Speaker 1 seat (n/c)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4692490.ece
3 - Nick, are they really expecting elections in Denmark next year? - they only voted in Nov 2007 - although the parliamentary arithmetic is fairly close. Any news from the ground welcome - many thanks.
same poll:
Holyrood voting intention:
Constituency (FPTP)
SNP 42%
Lab 42%
LD 15%
Con 13%
Regional (PR)
SNP 35%
Lab 25%
Con 14%
LD 14%
Is it just my lack of understanding, or has Michael Portillo just written an entire article based on the belief that the SNP “local” income tax is being set by local authorities, rather than the Govt?
8. Interesting to compare these seat figures with the figures from Stuart’s post yesterday based on the Scottish sample of a previous poll:
1. SNP 44 seats (+38 seats)
2. Lab 7 seats (-33 seats)
3. LD 5 seats (-6 seats)
4. Con 3 seats (+2 seats)
(Speaker (M Martin) 0 seat (-1 seat))
Any thoughts on why the SNP are on 44 seats in that poll and on 16 seats in this one - ie on the big difference in the underlying poll figures?
12. Err… yeah: the numbers at 12 a.re derived from an unweighted subsample of 86!! The numbers at post 8 from a full properly weighted poll - sample size: 1355!!
Typo at Post 10: Labour constituency vote should read 26%, not 42%.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4692781.ece
7 Yes, very interesting, Philippe. I’m a bit doubtful but have nevertheless placed a small bet.
“if the PM is so useless, why is he still in No 10?”
Because his Party is even more ueless?
Interesting data from the ComRes/Independence Poll. Only 49% of those polled as voting for the SNP actually consider themselves as true SNP-believers.
[Source: pp14, http://www.comres.co.uk/systems/file_download.aspx?pg=363&ver=1
Is the vote for SNP nothing more then a simple protest, or recognition that they have fresh ideas for governing Scotland (nae mae then an English county in terms of population), but do not want to see the end of Union? And if so, will it be down to we English to implement an honourable divorce…?
15 And spineless too.
Brown - ‘give me another chance’
Best 2 of 3 is it Gordon?
Prat
A few months ago (after the Wendy Alexander referendum fiasco) I opined that I thought the Scottish Tories would soon be up to the 22%-24% mark. I now wish to withdraw that claim.
It is becoming clear that, probably in a bid to save the Union, a significant chunk of swing tactical voters are going to hold their noses, get out the smelling salts, and vote for the Scottish Labour Party in a bid to keep the Scottish National Party advances at a minimum. The Scottish Tories and Scottish Lib Dems are going to have to fight tooth and claw not to get totally squeezed out in the next 2-3 years, as the two ‘big boys’ fight out the future of the Union.
17
Well Balls thinks Labour are 2-0 down with 5 mins to play………..
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5i96PMg2QPf0JqN4JvNBhz86UzvjA
“In the Observer, Andrew Rawnsley argues that while Labour despairs of Brown, ‘there is no sign of a Brutus’”.
Not the best of comparisons: Caesar was hardly assassinated because he was too weak and was leading Rome to disaster! The consequences of that action are worth bearing in mind though.
Re Ruth Kelly - is it significant? Has anyone seen her recently? Has she been doing anything of use to the government? It’s only of import if she would be leaving the government to attack it and I don’t think that’s likely. In fact, I’m far from convinced that there will be a cabinet reshuffle unless one is forced on Brown by events.
If he has a reshuffle and moves Darling and David Miliband following their recent comments, he could well be signing his own political death warrant; if he doesn’t move them, he’ll have demonstrated how independent cabinet ministers can be without it affecting their job prospects - and others will take note and act accordingly. Either way, it’s not a happy prospect so I expect Brown to do his usual and put off the decision. In this case, that would be a good thing. Cabinets and governments get reshuffled far too often anyway with ministers often being moved on before they’ve learned the job and the detail, leaving legislation half-drafted, policy programmes unimplimented and mish-mashes inevitable.
19, 40 mins to play. You must be using one of those patented Brown calculators:p
20
David, I just thought it was a hands off message to Brown(by Kelly). It strikes me that it is because Brown is so weak that ministers can say such things with relative impunity.
16. Fluffy Thoughts
When a party is doing very well, as the English Tories and SNP are right now, their support inevitablly (indeed, by definition!) comes from people who previously voted for another political party.
Conversely, when a party hits rock bottom, eg Scottish Lib Dems, then they are (by definition) down to their “core vote”, or very close to their core vote. ie. only “true believers” still support them, as swing voters switch to more popular parties.
Cllr Peter Cairns (SNP)
Scottish figure are Tory 25%, Labour 37%, LibDem 6%, SNP 21% Others 11%.
These are out of line with most recent polls but as comres prompts for the three main UK parties and then “Others” I’d expect the SNP figure to be lower.
[Source; http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/1363#comment-477967
Stuart, decent within the ranks…?
‘Ave a word; http://www.highland.gov.uk/yourcouncil/yourcouncillors/councillorscontactdetails/ward09/ward-09a.htm
21
LOL
perhaps I read it as it really is… rather than the way Balls was spinning it!
What do you think of the LIT, Stuart? Seems like a perfect recipe for council spending cuts and disappearance of “discretionary” services to me, as Govt squeezes on funding leave no option for choices between tax rises and spending cuts.
Ironically it will also hasten the move towards “unpopular” systems of charges (eg. bin taxes), and charges applied in a punitive way as Councils desperately search for alternative sources of income.
“”Everybody knows that if you are two-nil down five minutes into the second half, you don’t give up, you keep playing. The winner is the team that sticks together, stays determined and has the fitness, resilience and determination to win.”
Actually the winner is usually the team that is 2-0 up
19 They are clueless, the lot of them, incapable of adapting to the new reality - a long period of opposition.
Ivan Lewis - I am sure he and his little buddies would be all over a Tory who had done that - double standards Labour - we should get the opinion of double standards champion John Prescott - if he isn’t too busy reminding us that ‘not a single one of the cabinet’ has the skill or experience to run the country.
3. Dr Palmer - Cameron quite deliberately left that one open, without shutting the door either.
Incidentally, the rather deft handling of that episode suggests that Cameron has skill & luck in the right proportions. In the end it boosted the Conservatives - and undermined Labour among the kind of people who are often activists….
5. Royal Yacht - make it an additional aircraft carrier - plenty of space for tennis, horse riding, corgie walking (when flight ops permit). Duke of Edinburgh will feel at home - make sure there is a nice searchlight control position, with a comfy arm chair. Queens Flight can be the COD aircraft. Think of the diplomatic possibilities -
“Don’t agree with us? The we will either drop a nuke on you, or the Duke of Edinburgh will arrive for a state visit. Your choice”
“I don’t think Gordon will be there by Christmas,” [a minister] said in an off-the-record chat. So how will it happen? He hadn’t a clue.
… trapped in gridlock, a deadly sense of fatalism is setting in within the party, where defeat is accepted and positive action deemed pointless. “If you’re 3-0 down with 10 minutes to play, you don’t want to get an injury, do you?” one senior Scottish figure put it beautifully.
The Glenrothes by-election is now being pencilled in for November 6… Brown is expected to take full control of the strategy. Defeat, therefore, would be personal. And dozens of Labour MPs across Britain will ask themselves: “If he can’t win in Fife, what chance has he got in…”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/comment/-Brown-gives-it-one.4466433.jp
26, LIT = Local Income Tax, right?
Seems a strange use of the word ‘local’… as it applies to everyone.
There is also a standard alternative for the team who have been played off the park and are 2-0 down.
Aim to maintain the status quo, and keep it to respectability
19. Why’s Balls got a season ticket for Norwich when he’s from Nottingham?
3 - He said he would welcome him back to the House of Commons, not the Shadow Cabinet.
22. That’s certainly possible, but she’s not exactly in a strong position herself. Lacking popular support from the backbenches and with zero profile recently, she’s surely one minister Brown could lose without it being damaging.
In fact the logic of her position doesn’t hold up very well. She (though ‘friends’) has said she would rather leave the cabinet than move job, but is also resigned to being sacked if she votes against the government on the embryology bill - which it seems she will. So why hang on to Transport if she’s going to go anyway? It would be marginally more embarrassing to resign if she’s just accepted a new job, but would not the potential difficulty be discussed when offering her the alterntive post, or indeed before it, if it would be a known factor in a reshuffle?
It seems “the package” to help families with fuel bills is expected on Wednesday, depending on talks between ministers and energy firms.
I firmly predict that Mr Brown will say:
“I would like to abolish VAT on fuel. But European rules prevent me from doing so. However, many of the least well insulated houses in Britain are occupied by older people. No pensioner should be in a position where for reasons of finance they cannot adequately insulate their homes.
Today with our new programme of training and jobs for young people we are able to expand the national programme of home insulation. Contractors within the home energy efficiency scheme, and voluntary organisations will be encouraged to take on young people to insulate the homes of pensioners. This will give jobs and new skills to our young people, help and protection to the elderly, and it will improve our environment.”
After all, he’s said it all before!
24. Fluffy Thoughts
Either you have been at the Bacardi Breezers a bit early today, or else you are wilfuly misrepresenting that Cllr Cairns is saying.
It is perfectly obvious to anyone of normal intellect that Cllr Cairns is pointing out that due to their methodology ComRes will always record a lower level of SNP support.
I still wonder how you reconcile a ‘windfall’ tax on energy companies and a desire for additional replacement or additional investment in generation and and distribution to stop the lights going out at some point in the next ten years? A capricious taxation regime is hardly conducive to inflows of funds for investment.
Blair is still a comparatively young politician to give it all up for an incompentent successor. Didn’t Gladstone resume leading the Liberals after a younger leader had fouled up. If Blair is still politically ambitious and determined enough to limit Cameron’s career and a revival of the Tories, he could make a move to return as Labour leader. Why would he want people to think that Milliband has any potential as a leader? Blair v Milliband,no contest, one is an experienced, cunning,charismatic orator and politican who kept the Tories out of power for the last 11 years. Does Milliband have the ability to inspire people ot work for him?
Perhaps Campbell shoujld leave a laptop on a train with the orginal diary entries on Brown’s psychological flaws open as the screen saver.
27. Not if it is England…weren’t they 2-0 up in 2002 against Brazil, 2-0 in 1972 against W. Germany.
How could Blair pay the mortgages on his 6 homes on the PM’s salary? Especially as he is now deep into negative equity on the homes bought in the last 18 months. Shame.
32. Or bring on some substitutes. Cabinet reshuffle looming!
#37
Merely an extract from what me’s mate posted on YouGov. Chill-out my skirt-wearing amigo…!
3. It’s a laugh reading Mr.Palmer’s posts these days. Gone is the condescending ‘we are the masters now’ tone we used to get, replaced by feeble sniping and desperate attempts to glean the odd crumb of political comfort - even from abroad.
btw. doesn’t Ivan Lewis sit for a reasonably marginal seat? No chance of a byelection I suppose?
27 Typical New Labour numeracy - with at most 20 months remaining out of a 60 month term, we are actually 15 minutes into the second half.
They have an accountant appointed by the Board to be manager, who sits out the game from a subterranean dug-out; they have no-one on the bench. The goalkeeper and defence are at each others throats. They don’t have anybody in their opponents half - their strikers are on strike, each thinking they should be a player-manager. The previous manager had the left-winger replaced by two on the right. Their fans (Sid and Doris McBonkers) are dismayed that there has been no activity in the transfer window. But the club is broke - and is putting the survival of the whole League at stake.
Labour’s best hope? Floodlight failure….
44 - CON GAIN NEASDEN :LOl:
Fascinating leader in today’s Sunday Mail, the in-house rag of the Scottish Labour Party (ex-Brownite faction):
‘Let’s Lose London’s Shackles’
“Last week Gordon Brown talked about more powers for Holyrood in the hope of stemming the nationalist tide. What he should have addressed is more power for the Scottish Labour Party.
… as the late Donald Dewar said, devolution is a process, not an event. The Scottish Labour leadership must be allowed to evolve too. It should be allowed to develop and grow and not have to fall into line with London. And there should be an end to the turf war between Labour MSPs and MPs.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/opinion/we-say/2008/09/07/let-s-lose-london-s-shackles-78057-20726493/
Is John Smith House about to declare UDI?
The Daily Record/Sunday Mail seems to be under the misapprehension that free personal care for the elderly was a Labour Party initiative. That is a rewrite of history. The Scottish Labour Party fought free personal care for the elderly tooth and claw. It only got on the statute books due to their Lib Dem pet puppy digging its paws into the sand… for a change.
44
And the Team Manager has just been given a vote of confidence by the Board. We know what that means….
45 An ashen-faced Gordon Brown said….
48
…cont p94
#44
You forgot that the side’s board have raided the club’s supporters pension-funds (and those of their opponents, in whatever domestic league) just to rescue the club-sponsor (who throws crumbs back in continued sponsorship in appreciation). The board live in hope no-one will notice as the club’s supporters include the intellectual who managed to lose half the populations bank-details.
Surely the purpose of the North-East is as a buffer? It absorbs the mad, hare-filled Mel Gibson wannabes whilst us Southerners have our tiffing, then win the inevitable battle…!
By the way, for those who enjoyed the Brownian Downfall video, there’s a prequel on Youtube now. Strong language and some gore, for those sensitive about such matters.
37 Stuart it is nothing to do with Comres methodology , just the extreme variations caused by the extremely small sample sizes .
Compare the figures from the previous Comres Independent poll
Con 5% now 25% SNP 40% now 21%
Sample sizes of 50 or fewer give meaningless results as I have told you many times .
Very good Marquee Mark @44 and others. It’s also not impossible that when facing a hopeless result, the best players could ask to come off early to avoid injury/be fresher for the next game.
What’s Ruth kelly up to though? It may just be unsourced froth, but her determination to stay at transport just sounds odd, especially as she has served as education secretary. Perhaps she is ready to be the first cabinet minister to begin the big push to remove Brown, she would be among the first to fall in Bolton if noone does anything. I’ve never imagined her as a potential rebel leader though.
39 - 2002 was 1-0
2-0 was Portugal in 2000
O/T - why would the British police be keen to cover up the murder of Julie Ward in Kenya?
50 The fans and players alike are clamouring for their Manager to be inspired by Kevin Keegan - and walk out of the job in a huff.
46 - Nobody should be claiming credit for Free personal care for the elderly…
Mad Balls on Marr.
36
We shouldn’t forget, that it was the Tories that put VAT on domestic fuel, (after a firm denial) the intention was to put on the full 17.5% in two tranches, they managed 8% but couldn’t get the full rate through parliament. It was lowered to 5% by Labour when it came to power. European taxation rules state, that once levied VAT cannot be removed, but can be lowered to the minimum allowable which is 5%.
More a day for a gloatathon than for Labour MP’s or supporters. However a quick flick through the Telegraph reveals another of David Cameron’s hubristic articles advising Labour to ‘either back Brown or sack him’.
He really can’t help himself can he? If anyone thinks this arrogance is going to endear him to the British public when they start to seriously consider him for PM then they’re dreaming. And that’s before they picture George Osborne at the treasury!
61 - he’s right though. The very minimum the country needs at the moment is a Govt pulling in the same direction.
11. No, as I read the article Michael Portillo is talking about local authorities being given the proceeds of 3p on income tax - I didn’t see any refernce to them being given discretion over the level at which it is set.
I’m with Simon Jenkins on this - replacing the last significant locally set tax with a national Scottish tax would largely destroy what little autonomy has been left to local government in Scotland.
52. Erratic: yes. But “meaningless”: no. If you look at a large number of Scottish sub-samples from different pollsters, over a long period of time, they actually give you a very clear picture of Westminster voting intention, totally in line with the small number of proper Scottish polls.
PB.com’s merrie band of Lib Dem rampers (pack leader: M Senior) tell us all lots of things “many times”. Keep up the good work Mark: you are a massive asset… to your opponents.
61. Look at the personal rating polls Roger. Seem to contradict you.
Balls going tieless today.
538.com: A McCain lead soon in the Gallup tracker
The Gallup tracker now shows Barack Obama leading by 2 points, down from 4 a day ago. When I attempt to estimate the daily results from the topline numbers, however, I get the following:
Wednesday: Obama +7.8
Thursday: Obama +2.4
Friday: McCain +4.2
So Obama’s numbers are being propped up by a strong night of polling on Wednesday, which will cycle out tomorrow. He also held up relatively well on Thursday following Sarah Palin’s speech (note: our estimate of his Thursday numbers has been revised slightly upward from yesterday’s figures because of a methodological improvement I made to my tracking poll algorithm). But yesterday, McCain had a good night, most likely leading by somewhere in the range of 4 points. There is a good chance that tomorrow’s Gallup numbers will show a tie or a McCain lead.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Re Michigan:
I actually think Michigan is one of the more unlikely Republican gains. I can see many paths-to-the presidency for McCain that do not pass through Detroit.
Firstly, Michigan blames the current high oil prices for its wows. And, correctly or not, most people blame Gulf War II for driving up oil prices.
Secondly, Michigan blames foreign competition. And McCain is a noted free-trader. Obama (although, I suspect, under the surface as free a trader as McCain) is not tarred by this.
Thirdly, where economics is the key concern, Obama leads. In Michigan, economics is the key concern.
Fourthly, Obama is from a neighbouring state.
Fifthly, like Pennsylvania and Minnesota, Michigan is reliably Democrat - even when pundits predict it’ll flip (see Pennsylvania).
From my point of view, there is only one “gain” nailed on by either candidate, and that is Obama in Iowa. (See McCain on ethanol… which, oh yes, won’t play too well in Michigan either…)
I am sceptical that Obama is as far head as people think in New Mexico. And I wouldn’t be surprised if McCain won New Hampshire. (In fact, McCain could well gain NH and lose the election.)
November 5 will be decided by Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Ohio. I suspect Obama will pick up Colorado, but probably miss the other three. Which really puts this (as always) on a complete knife edge…
61, as opposed to the genius Brown, or the stoic Darling?
63 - Is it not implied by the suggestion that the policy will dramatically increase local autonomy?
64 Keep taking the SNP spin tablets Stuart . If you think averaging a number of polls with individual meaningless results will give you a meaningful average picture you need to increase the dosage .
Nice piece on Broadcasting house this morning about Chancellors of the Exchequer and how events ruined them, Healey, Lamont, etc etc.
Ended with Brown saying to the Labour Party confrence.. my friends… stability blah blah blah…..prudence..blah blah blah end to the Tories boom and bust….
70. There are no tablets left to consume I’m afraid. You swallowed the whole damn bottle.
‘This month we’ll have a £120 tax cut for 22 million families’
‘The Prime Minister is doing well’
This man as the next Chancellor!!! Can’t even get his stats right.
73 - Which stat is wrong?
61. At least Osbornes eyebrows match his hair.
Tim Luckhurst, former editor of The North Britishman, is doing a very good job of behaving like a man on the verge of a nervous breakdown. If Unionist journalists think that this kind of thing is going to save the Union, then they have already lost the referendum:
‘This dangerous man’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/06/scotland.counciltax?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
74 22 million families - it isn’t
No, not Caesar and Brutus.
More like Galba who succeeded Nero, and Otho who succeeded Galba.
Lots of people claimed to have killed off Galba to curry favour will Otho. But he lasted as long as a gnats breakfast when Vespasian came along to clear up the mess and take over.
Interestingly Galba was supported initially by Otho who in turn got annoyed and turned against him as he was not promoted to the top deputy spot as he expected. It was a successful snit and hit but he was more incompetent that his murdered predecessor.
Vespasian was an outsider, not one of the party. He stopped the rot and rounded off the year of the three emperors.
I wonder what that middle initial ‘V’ in Cameron’s name stands for?
It’s £60 this month for 22 mllion people. He just can’t resist embellishing it.
37. Stuart Dickson: It is perfectly obvious to anyone of normal intellect that Cllr Cairns is pointing out that due to their methodology ComRes will always record a lower level of SNP support.
Perhaps so, but I wouldn’t have thought that was particularly significant. I’m also not sure how it chimes with Mark Senior’s observation, which seems on the face of it to be accurate, that Comres always give higher figures to the Others than the other pollsters.
Meanwhile, I notice you still haven’t posted your customary analysis of the Scottish sub-sample of the said poll.
Balls, on Andrew Marr’s programme has demonstrated that he is totally mad and living in LALA land. God help the country with morons like him allegedly in control
76 - Which part of the article do you disagree with?
81 he just stated that Brown’s defining characteristic in conference was his amazing conference speeches - lmao, like the sh!t he was spouting last year, hahahahahahaha
79 - £60 per person = £120 per family, no?
Apologies, scrap that.
84 no - there are often 2 basic rate tax payers in a family - therefore it is not 22 million families that are getting the rebate
79
and he is too stupid to realise that it does Labour a disservice. Telling the nation they are getting 120 quid and then in the pay packet its only 60 quid is just going to p*ss people off.
Of course, regardless of that, it is not a £60 “tax cut” it is a £10 tax cut and a £50 tax rebate.
87 - Well it wouldn’t because the average family will be getting £120. As disw says, it’s the number of families that he’s got wrong.
If it was a £60 tax cut, then next month everyone will be getting a £50 tax rise!!!
80. Why post a sub-sample of 45 when we have a brand-spanking-new proper YouGov of 1355 in today’s Sunday Times?
‘Tory win would trigger Scots split - poll
A David Cameron election victory in 2010 would encourage Scotland to choose independence, survey shows’
“Salmond remains ahead, with 41% of voters believing he is the strongest candidate for first minister. Just 8% preferred Annabel Goldie, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, with 5% supporting Tavish Scott, the Scottish Lib Dem leader.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4692490.ece
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4692490.ece
87. The fun’s only just starting. It’ll be a laugh a year from now when he has to explain why unemployment has risen steeply and the government is being forced to tighten policy in a recession.
84. He’s a lying spinner who’s living in lah lah, and is the only man who’s defeat at the next election would tempt me into drinking alcohol once more.
‘SNP pins hopes on rival honours
Bravery medals for Scots will be an alternative to those bestowed by the Queen’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4692296.ece
19. MTF: Well Balls thinks Labour are 2-0 down with [40] mins to play…
Interesting he should say that. I, as a Stockport fan, was immediately reminded of Boxing Day 2005, when we were far adrift at the bottom of League Two, and far odds-on for relegation to the Conference. Playing an away derby at Macclesfield, we were indeed 2-0 down five minutes into the second half (having conceded two in the last five minutes of the first half). But when Macc scored a third with half an hour to go, the team simply stopped playing, conceding two more in the next five minutes, and ended up losing 6-0. The reason? They’d simply given up on the manager - they (and the fans, of course!) knew that a change and a miracle was needed; the current manager simply wasn’t going to inspire the team to survival.
The manager was promptly sacked, and a new manager brought in, under whom we won nine and drew eight of the remaining 23 games for the 35 points necessary to survive on the last day, which proved a springboard for a good 06/07 season, missing a play-off place on the last day of the season and, of course, for promotion at Wembley in May 2008.
Labour might not manage so swift a recovery, but then they don’t have a Jim Gannon. But if they persist with Brown, they’re heading for immediate and ignominious relegation.
91
Which only reinforces my view that New Labour will be the UK’s last government. There will be a quiet period when the Tories take over, followed by ructions when thing go sour for them.
Then Scotland will go its own way, if that proves successful, (I see no reason why it shouldn’t be) Wales will feel encouraged to do the same.
91. Stuart Dickson: Why post a sub-sample of 45 when we have a brand-spanking-new proper YouGov of 1355 in today’s Sunday Times?
Because you helpfully post analysis of all available Scottish data, don’t you? Surely you don’t post only those data that are relatively good for the SNP, which would be both incredibly partisan, unhelpful and petty.
95. To our Labour friends I do know how you feel, I’m a Derby supporter. At least we still have Gordon Brown to laugh at.
84
What can Balls say?
He’s a dead man walking.
Even if he keeps his seat at the next GE, he will be spurned by any new Leader.
96 - Er, arguing that Scotland can go its own way is one thing, but i think you’ll struggle to find anyone who thinks Wales could go it alone economically. Even Plaid Cymru don’t really believe that.
The creation of a new Scottish television channel is the key recommendation in the long-awaited Broadcasting Commission report to be unveiled tomorrow.
As well as being supported by the Nationalists, a new Scottish channel would be likely to be backed by the Scottish Conservative party.
Tory MSP Ted Brocklebank said: “I’m absolutely delighted to hear the commission has backed this, because we grabbed the idea early on.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2442296.0.0.php
Good article from the LA Times about the kinds of voters Palin energizes: http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-daum6-2008sep06,0,5809657.column
Morning campers
67 robert. Obama - Kerry minus New Hampshire but plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado = a 269/269 tie with Obama winning on away goals in Congress.
97. LS - “… incredibly partisan, unhelpful and petty.”
I’m afraid that I cannot compete in that particular segment as Mark Senior has cornered the market.
81 Yes maybe thats the plan, to be so completely insane that we all have a good chuckle and cheer up a bit thereby bringing back the feelgood factor.
104.
Do I infer that you are refusing to post your customary analysis of the ComRes poll?
106. Err… correct me if I’m wrong, but somebody has already posted it upthread! I know you find me a tad tedious (personally I would describe myself as ‘focussed’) but I am not in the habit of double-posting.
95: LS, I never imagined that I would see Jim Gannon at the heart of a political analogy, he truly is a legend!! And I think that Maccesfield result was even more painful than losing to Portugal after being 2-0 up…
100
Singapore is the same size as the Isle-of-Wight seems to manage ok. Latvia, Estonia etc.
Wales is perfectly able to survive as a single entity. Most counties in England could probably survive economically if they had to: M25 land would probably benefit dramatically.
The idea that you have to belong to a larger unit to survive and prosper, is really 19th century thinking. Computers, the internet etc. removing the need for the centralised state, will make the smaller unit much more viable, even desirable.
When you have to do it, you do it, new solutions for a new century.
107. Stuart Dickson: correct me if I’m wrong, but somebody has already posted it upthread
You’re wrong, at least as far as I can see: the voting intention figures have been, but not the seats that would result therefrom on USS.
“David Cameron… taunting Brown for being weak over Miliband - “if my foreign secretary behaved like that, I’d sack him”.”
Am I the only one who thinks that that is a classic ‘hostage to fortune’ statement?
102- Robert- she enthuses evangelical, pro Bush, pro hunting, pro creationist head bangers. Very insightful.
100
Going on last night’s perfomance, Andorra seems to do ok as well!!
108. tpfhar: And I think that Maccesfield result was even more painful than losing to Portugal after being 2-0 up…
I’m not so sure. I had resigned myself to Conference football even before the Macc game, whereas I thought England might actually go somewhere in that tournament.
114. And apologies for the typo in your name!
109 ‘The idea that you have to belong to a larger unit to survive and prosper, is really 19th century thinking’
It’s actually current 21st century thinking in huge swathes of Europe with the EU. (amongst leaders if not their citzens)
“The Washington Post” on voter registration in Virginia :
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/06/obama_helps_register_49k_new_v.html
110.
Ha ha! Ok then. I am desperate for Sunday morning coffee no.2, but just for LS, here is what you get if you bung the latest Comres sCottish sub-sample (sample size: 46) through Baxter:
1. Lab 38 seats (-2)
2. Con 11 seats (+10)
3. SNP 5 seats (-1)
4. LD 4 seats (-7)
5. Speaker (M Martin) 1 seat (n/c)
Enjoy!!
118. Thanks, Stuart.
I value your contributions as they give me a much greater insight into what’s happening north of the border than I’ve ever had before. I’d hate to have to dismiss you as just an SNP spin machine who only posted good news for his party.
107 There you’re digging your hole you’re digging it round and it ought to be square … but you are still burying yourself in your own pro SNP spin .
80 The Comres methodology boosts the figures for Other Others as opoosed to that of the minor parties such as UKIP and SNP .
119. LS - “I’d hate to have to dismiss you as just an SNP spin machine who only posted good news for his party.”
Err… you mean as opposed to all the Tory posters who post bad news about the Conservative party, all the Labour posters who post bad news about the Labour Party, and all the Lab-Dim posters who post bad news about the Nincompoop party?
120
Hang on a sec Mark. What were you doing yesterday(or was it the day before) about LIb Dem chances in Southampton etc.I seem to remember the abysmal result you referred to was a retained Tory seat …..
Pot and Kettle
116
That will change and in someways it will be the EU, (you’ll hate that) that’ll make it possible. Not the EU in its present form, but one that ensures free passage, and eventually a single currency through the whole of Europe. Standardising property laws would be a good thing.
I consider myself a citizen of Wessex, the rest of England means nothing too me, the North in particular is a foreign country, if I never went there it wouldn’t worry me. If on the other hand you told me I couldn’t go back to Italy it would really depress me.
That was why I welcomed the Policy Exchange report, and was saddened to see Cameron reject it.
p.s.
Ask any Southerner, (and a few others I suspect), the following question.
Some ‘orrible ogre has you in his power, and gives you a choice: as a punishment you can live anywhere in the North of England or anywhere in Italy, bet I can guess which one the choice would be.
75.
“At least Osbornes eyebrows match his hair.”
As do Camerons - they’re vanishing at the same rate. Oyster eyes Mk2!
18.”It is becoming clear that, probably in a bid to save the Union, a significant chunk of swing tactical voters are going to hold their noses, get out the smelling salts, and vote for the Scottish Labour Party in a bid to keep the Scottish National Party advances at a minimum. The Scottish Tories and Scottish Lib Dems are going to have to fight tooth and claw not to get totally squeezed out in the next 2-3 years, as the two ‘big boys’ fight out the future of the Union.”
Stuart, not surprised at these findings, hard as it maybe for you to comprehend, the next GE is not going to be about the SNP.
121. Stuart Dickson: Err… you mean as opposed to all the Tory posters who post bad news about the Conservative party, all the Labour posters who post bad news about the Labour Party, and all the Lab-Dim posters who post bad news about the Nincompoop party?
I mean like them - but for news about those parties in the UK as a whole, their combined spin efforts at least mean that most things worthy of note get noted. If the only person religiously posting news specifically about Scotland is spinning for the SNP, we don’t know what we’re not seeing.
125. I suspect that Scottish affairs are going to figure rather largely at the next UK GE Chris. Throughout the entire United Kingdom.
If it’s a tax cut, why aren’t we Old Age Pensioners getting one?
While some posters are commenting on the physical appearance of politicians: it would appear that GB is beating DC at something.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/downing-street-diet-the-incredible-shrinking-prime-minister-921543.html
126. Jeepers creepers!! LS, let me introduce you to a very good friend of mine: Mr Google ->
http://www.google.se/
He is ever so informative!
125. ChrisD: the next GE is not going to be about the SNP.
I agree.
I’ve also noted the differences that tend to exist in Holyrood and Westminster voting intention, which would seem to be an argument against Easterross’s hypothesis that in considering the 2010 GE, the 2007 Holyrood results are far more important than the 2005 GE results. If he happens to read this, I wonder if he could comment.
130. Stuart, let me introduce to you the concept of there only being 24 hours in the day, seven of which I have to sleep for, 10 of which I have to work for, and two of which I have to commute for.
76 - Come on then Stuart, answer the question. It seems to me that there is a strong case that the SNP “Local” Income tax plans ARE illegal under the terms of the Scotland Act. Now the SNP might not care about trivialities like that because they will by default push any law which is a restriction on their independence, but it creates an immediate problem the moment some rich individual challenges their bill for several thousand pounds in the courts.
The Scotland act allows
1) a variation of 3p on the basic rate of tax
2) discretion on Local Taxation.
The proposed reform is clearly in breach of 1) - it increases the top rate as well as the basic rate and is also discriminatory against those who earn their money from work rather than savings and investments.
It is also clearly not Local taxation - it is a nationally levied tax and only indirectly contributes towards local services. If it were allowed to be designated a “local tax” under the Scotland Act then it logically follows that the SNP could ANY taxes nationally on Scottish citizens as long as it ultimately was given to local authorities. They could then use the money currently used as Formula Grant (non- Council tax Local authority income) to spend on other things.
Which is clearly against the spirit of the Act and limited tax raising powers granted within.
3. Nick- it seems to me you do not really appreciate the plight the Labour party is in with Brown, and with this terrible period in govt which must be put to an end.
You see if Brown stays the Labour party is finished- looking at holding onto 50-80 seats, a base it will not recover from. Coupled of course with a virtual wipe out of members and crippling debt. Some strategic alliance with LD’s will be necessary- possibly combining both under a new party- the Democrats (leaving a rump of socialist MP’s to form their own party)
The only way Labour can survive is to try and salvage something more by changing leader to either Johnson or Miliband (Johnson is probably more palpable to the Labour membership) calling a snap election and trying to hold onto 180-200 seats.
For those of you supporting a longer term strategy, hoping something turns up, giving Gordon further tests- maybe until next spring, hoping to get a few more months as being an MP are doing huge damage to the country, and to the long term interests of the Labour party.
100 Wales could clearly go it alone, if she wanted. Your argument (I guess) is that Wales would be worse off economically. I don’t know whether that is true.
However, it does raise the interesting question of whether economics is the final and crucial arbiter in such decision-making by a people. Or are cultural, historical and romantic reasons just as important.
The lesson from Quebec is (I think) that economics is all important. Even though Quebec may be better off alone, the PQ have never really convincingly demonstrated this. If you are affluent (as are the Quebecois) you fear to lose what you have. So you tend to support the status quo.
If you are impoverished (as the Slovakians are), then why maintain the status quo. You can hardly be any worse off if you go it alone.
By and large, Wales and Scotland fall into the Quebec category rather than Slovakia — so I’d expect independence to be likely only if the SNP/PC can really nail the economic argument.
128
I think its because the age allowance went up a fair bit. Cost Labour virtually nothing as it reduces benefit claims
122. MTF: LIb Dem chances in Southampton etc.I seem to remember the abysmal result you referred to was a retained Tory seat …
Speaking of which, I don’t seem to recall seeing some of these posted here, so…
Barrow in Furness BC, Newbarns
Con 478 (52.3;+9.4), Lab 177 (19.4;-1.7),
Peoples Party (Furness) 155 (17.0;+17.0), BNP 104 (11.4;+11.4)
[Ind (0.0;-36.0)]
Majority 301 Turnout 21.9% Con hold Percentage change is since May
2008
Harborough DC, Broughton Astley - Broughton
Conservative elected unopposed
Con hold
[Result in May 2007 - Con 447 (65.3) Ind 238 (34.7)]
Havant DC, Waterloo
Con 849 (48.7;-21.5), LD 801 (45.9;+26.6), Lab 95 (5.4;-5.1)
Majority 48 Turnout 23.2% Con hold Percentage change is since May 2008
Melton BC, Melton Egerton
Lab 314 (43.2;-4.8), BNP 236 (32.5;+4.5), Con 177 (24.3;+0.3)
Majority 78 Turnout 26.3% Lab hold Percentage change is since May 2007
Stocksbridge TC, East
Con 422 (46.7), LD 369 (40.9), Lab 112 (12.4)
Majority 53 Turnout 30.0% Con gain from Ind
From aldc.org via uk.politics.electoral
Here is a list of the key future events weighing on Brown’s mind:
‘Brown: the clock’s ticking’
“Early rumours suggest the Glenrothes by-election has been pencilled in for Thursday October 30.”
http://tinyurl.com/6yncf5
Nick Cohen in the Observer:
“Hate can sell better than hope.
When a hate campaign goes wrong, however, disaster follows.”
I’m glad I don’t actually BUY the Telegraph.
Since I am a hard-working Briton, I thought I would be finding the holy grail when I saw a headline reading:
“David Cameron’s tax plan for ‘hard working Britons’”
Something for me, maybe? I thought.
At last! Cameron provies the ‘beef’ so we can see how he might do things differently than Brown. Then I read:
“In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, the Conservative leader sends a strong signal that he would seek to introduce tax reductions to reward those who “put their backs into the British economy”
“HE WOULD SEEK TO INTRODUCE…..”! As in ‘he would seek to…..’ find 20 pound notes by walking down Watford High Street at midnight with his eyes in the sky?!?
There is no more of a PLAN here than Martin Day has a PLAN to marry Kate Middleton or find himself a job! I note the picture of Cameron in the paper where Herr Deier looks like he has worked harder than ever. I know DC likes to mimic Tony Blair in his every single move but hasn’t he noticed Tony’s gone ‘au naturelle’ these days on the tone of the thinning tonsure?
I’m now off to pat a dog on the head. I jest not. Those pesky kids!! Salut!
109 - I’ve no doubt that theoretically Wales could survive an independent entity. The problem is that it couldn’t be done overnight after a split from the UK. All the countries you cite have reached their current position after decades (centuries?) as independent countries. Their economies and situation are a product of that. They probably don’t, for example, have highly dependent “welfare” populations that need servicing, or other public sector services to fund. Their economies, govts and public services are effectively a reflection of what they can afford.
Wales on the other hand have an economy, govt and public services which are (just) a reflection of what the UK can afford. Many could simply not be afforded as an independent entity.
134 - I think you’ll find Nick is hanging on for the next reshuffle.
After 12 years of eating his feet, you’d think a Doctor of Mathematics and the cousin of Lieutenant-General Anthony Palmer, Deputy Chief of the Defence Staff, would get promoted to something a little more rewarding than Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Minister of State for Energy in the Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform.
135. I don’t think there’s much doubt Wales would be substantially worse off under independence as it is a substantial recipient of net transfers from the rest of the UK. With Scotland, there’s room for debate with oil clouding the picture.
Would this be part of NuLabour’s relaunch ?
it appears that Gord has adopted government by “you tube”!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEAdxqq3ITU
Nick Clegg on Sky News - Dreadful: Absolutly dreadfull performance.
Nick Clegg = Neil Kinnock!
I have gone soft in the head, hope he stays in Sheffield Hallam after the next election as he has fathered another child. A supportive community, when you are unemployed is most helpful!
143 Knowing how authoritarian Labour are becoming, I reckon there is an opening for Nick as the Minister for Blogs (control thereof)
127.”125. I suspect that Scottish affairs are going to figure rather largely at