So unpopular, he won’t even be fighting the election…
September 7th, 2008
Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer
… and Haider is back, as an unstable Austria prepares to vote
This is going to be an extremely busy autumn everywhere - whether in the US, here at home, or in the rest of the world. The Canadian election will be held on 14th October and was previewed in an excellent guest article by Jack Peterson last Sunday, and New Zealand, although we await a firm date, is less than ten weeks away. Two countries are holding key leadership elections, as Mofaz and Livni battle for Kadima in Israel, while Taro Aso is seen as the frontrunner to become the LDP’s fourth PM of this term in Japan. A full list of forthcoming elections is available at Adam Carr’s excellent site.
First with an election is Austria, which votes on Sunday 28th September. While Germany has traditionally been wary of Grand Coalitions (only Kiesinger and Merkel have led one since the war), Austria has embraced them much more warmly, where they held sway from 1945-66, 1987-2000, and since 2007. As recently as 1986, the “big two” Austrian parties, the Social Democrats (SPÖ) and People’s Party (ÖVP) commanded 84% of the vote, but with the rise of the Freedom Party (FPÖ) under Jörg Haider, their position steadily eroded in the 1990s, until the landmark 1999 election where the FPÖ secured 27% of the vote and (just) second place nationwide.
An initially extremely controversial ÖVP-FPÖ government, complete with EU sanctions, was formed in early 2000, but when the coalition was renewed after the 2002 elections, with a much weakened FPÖ, no-one batted an eyelid. The disarray in the FPÖ which resulted in their massive loss of support in 2002 continued, until by 2005 Haider (governor of Carinthia 1989-91 and since 1999) formed a breakaway party, the BZÖ, which took the FPÖ’s place in the coalition, and had a powerbase in Carinthia but elsewhere was not much more of a vote-getter than SNP candidates might be in England.
At the 2006 election, the ÖVP slipped back to 34%, allowing the SPÖ to scrape a win by a single point and two seats, and in early 2007, the grand coalition was renewed. However, considering that they lost the election, the ÖVP did very well in cabinet posts, ending up with Finance, Foreign Affairs, and Interior, only leaving the SPÖ with the post of Chancellor itself, in the form of Alfred Gusenbauer. (A UK equivalent of this would see Brown, Osborne, Hague, and Grieve as the “big four”.)
Never a popular government, with Chancellor Gusenbauer getting low ratings quite early on, the coalition collapsed this summer over disagreements on policy, including the EU, and Vice-Chancellor Wilhelm Molterer (Finance Minister and ÖVP leader) pulled the plug. However, not unlike the ALP bringing Bob Hawke to the leadership ahead of the 1983 election in Australia (although they were in opposition), the SPÖ have dumped the hapless Gusenbauer as party leader in favour of the more popular Werner Faymann, Transport minister in the outgoing government.
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The polls would suggest that the Faymann move has been worthwhile for the SPÖ, as although the race remains very close, they have eased ahead of the ÖVP in recent polling. The Freedom Party hovers in the high teens, touching 20% in some polls, while the Greens are in the low teens. (Not only has Austria had by far the highest far-right vote in a modern democracy, the FPÖ’s 27% in 1999 comfortably ahead of anything achieved by Le Pen, the Austrian Greens have also chalked up some of the highest scores anywhere in first-order national elections, with 9.5% in 2002 and 11% in 2006, possibly only beaten by their Latvian cousins’ 16.7% in 2006.) Poll watchers should note however that all the polls wrongly predicted an ÖVP victory in 2006.
Modern Austrian politics would not be complete without Jörg Haider, on the scene since 1986, and after a period where he has taken a back seat, he is now the BZÖ’s lead candidate, after his predecessor ran over a policeman’s foot at Euro 2008. His national re-emergence has generated much interest and the BZÖ’s poll ratings are improving. Austria has undergone a fundamental change in the last 20 years, and the “big two” look set for their lowest ever combined score, maybe below 60%, as the country moves from a political duopoly to something more like Denmark or the Netherlands, with the winning party under 30% - and there are a record number of parties at the election, including the Liberals and the Citizen’s Forum, who scored 18% in the recent Tirol Landtag elections. Parties need to clear 4% to secure representation in the Nationalrat.
It’s anyone’s guess as to what the new government will look like. Austria has never had a minority government or a three-party government, but these are now possibilities as the party system fractures. It may well be that the electoral maths means that the only two-party majority government is another Grand Coalition, which would probably not be widely welcomed, while another possibility which has been touted is a “black-green” coalition (ÖVP-Green) to mirror the situation in Upper Austria (and indeed Hamburg). The FPÖ may find it difficult to enter government due to their anti-EU stance. Whatever happens, for those observers of politics who look beyond the major countries, Austria is at present very far from being dull - and indeed is in one of its most unstable periods in the Second Republic.
Links:
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Austria background & polls
Canada background & polls, Jack Peterson guest article
New Zealand background & polls
Double Carpet
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Bet on change everywhere.
We are headed into the kind of 1970’s and 1930’s vicious circle with an unstable economic climate leading to unstable democracies leading to even greater economic instability.
Sorry to be OT immediately:
Hamilton has been stripped of the win, and instead given third place. Apparently his car lacked the requirments for victory (red paintjob, black horse etc).
Unbelievable. A fantastic race with a great finish marred again by bloody pro-Ferrari politics.
OVP-FPO-BZO: the future!
Wonder what the anti-democratic Eurocrats would say to that?
Sorry, that post of mine at 1 looks a bit depressing; which I didn’t mean, but the last twenty years have seen unprecedented economic stability which has given us a false sense of what is normality.
Well as it’s an international thread - Hurricane Ike’s track is now forecast a bit further south, It should now miss New Orleans but is heading straight for the the Texas refineries at Category 3 strength. Perhaps late on Friday night. Look out for a rising oil price this week?
Posted this after double carpet put up the new thread:
Guys, just been catching up on this afternoon’s postings.
The Barnett formula has nothing to do with dvolution. It was formulated by Lord Joel Barnett in the last Labour Cabinet of Harold Wilson/Jim Callaghan as a means of recognising that in Scotland the population was small and density even smaller, thus with a much larger rural population e.g. more roads driven on by fewer cars and more schools attended by fewer pupils was required.
For the past decade England has felt what the Scots perceived themselves to be feeling for 18 years under Thatcher/Major, namely key policies forced on them by MPs whose constituents would be unaffected by such policies. The cruch point was when English Tory MPs happily imposed the Poll Tax on Scotland but then tried to delay it/changed aspects of it before introducing it in England. To this day most Scots have never forgiven the Tories for doing this which is why we will do well if we win 4-6 seats at the General Election.
Before introducing the Poll tax we held 21 of Scotland’s 72 constituencies. In 1987 we lost 11 of them and in 1997 we lost the remainder. 2005 was fought on very different and unfavourable boundary changes but in 2007 we fought on the 1997 boundaries and achieving 4 FPTP seats was considered a major success.
I think in 2010 Labour is going to suffer exactly what we suffered in Scotland in 1987/1997 for the same reasons and if it does, it will be more than a generation before Labour wins back power.
Remember when you are debating what the Scottish Parliament will or will not be permitted to do, the Scottish Parliment already has tax raising powers to the extent of 3 p in the £ and it is the established policy of all 3 unionist parties at Holyrood for more powers to be devolved to Holyrood. The Calman Commission is just trying to agree what these should be. It will be for the Scottish people to determine whether Scotland becomes independent and frankly we who are unionists are making a dreadful job of developing ANY grown-up arguments against it, instead concentrating on telling everyone it will be a disaster, that it cannot be done etc etc and those bullying arguments were an unmitigated disaster in 1997 in the devolution debate.
Every time a London based politician tells the Scots we are scroungers, the more votes are piling into the SNP box. I think all of us who are unionists are sleepwalking towards the breakup of the UK.
by Easterross September 7th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
We are certainly in for an interesting autumn. Are we generally moving toward Centre-Left Governments losing out or vice versa or indeed just incumbents facing the boot because they have been there far too long?
More-NeoCon-than-the-NeoCons Denis “ID cards will stop anti-social behaviour” MacShane’s latest self-righteous whine going down a treat over at CiF:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/07/labour.tradeunions
2, even worse, I just checked my Betfair account and the money’s been taken out as apparently Hamilton didn’t bloody win. Unbelievable.
Fortunately I’m still playing with peanuts (lost a tenner or so overall due to covering bets on Raikonnen and the like) but I’m bloody annoyed.
8, unsettled, rather than lost, I should say.
Anyway, vis-a-vis politics, certainly looks like there’ll be a lot to talk about, including of course good old Glenrothes.
6 - The Barnett formula was initially related to preparations for devolution, and one of its undoubted advantages are the flexibility it gives to devolved govt to allocate funds on priorities.
The primary relationship to devolution was presumably to ensure that the Scottish Parliament could operate on the basis of budgetary certainty, and wouldn’t be the victim of Departmental turf wars in London.
Today’s Gallup:
McCain leads 48-45.
Yesterday Obama led 47-45.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110050/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Moves-Ahead-48-45.aspx
I think Lewis has every right to feel peeved, there are those who will do anything to prevent him becoming world champion.
Can’t wait to read Irwin Seltzer’s comments on the American government’s nationalization of the US mortgage market, the Beeb are saying it’ll cost 2.7 trillion dollars.
O/T:
I recall that one or two Libdems mentioned the idea that firstly they had avoided any dodgy foreign donors and secondly that they had a nice fat £1 million surplus last year.
Well it looks like they spoke to soon (apologies if this has previously been posted). The ‘5th Avenue affair’ could well be coming back to haunt them…….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/07/liberaldemocrats.partyfunding
Betfair still pretty static:
Obama 1.63, McCain 2.68.
Surely McCain should now shorten?
12 - That it will “cost” $2.7 trillion is obviously nonsense. Presumably they mean it exposes the US Govt to $2.7 trillion of debt, which isn’t quite the same thing. It’s like people saying that Northern Rock will cost £100billion when really it will cost a couple.
14 - Difficult to know what will happen when the convention bounce wears off. As far as I can see tomorrow should see McCain leading by 2 or 3 with Rasmussen and maybe up to 5 with Gallup (I thought he might have hit that today). After that then people will feel more secure in betting either way, the key is the states in any case, where is there any effect, if any?
Austria’s conservative party (ÖVP) has a problem with their dull candidate, Molterer. By contrast, Faymann is a more energetic politician who has bought the support of the Kronenzeitung newspaper (Austria’s Sun) by performing a full u-turn on Europe. In fact, he wrote the Austrian equivalent of Rupert Murdoch a servile open letter on the subject. Ever since, the Kronenzeitung is supporting the SPÖ to a degree that has been described as bordering on party propaganda.
As a result, after months of the ÖVP basically pushing through their policies thanks to Gusenbauer’s weakness as a chancellor, the SPÖ is now in a good position to continue governing in a new Grand Coalition. Despite Faymann’s…um… ideological flexibility, he is unlikely to form a government with the FPÖ. The ÖVP, by contrast, may yet outsmart the SPÖ and form a coalition with them. In the process, they might just topple Molterer and replace him with the more popular region ÖVP politician Erwin Pröll.
Austria exemplifies the new political landscape that is also emerging in Germany. It’s the Italianization of politics if you will. I’m fairly certain that the SPÖ will “win” this election, followed by the ÖVP, the FPÖ, the Greens, and the BZÖ. Still, there is no saying who will govern, and it is difficult to place bets as statistics and experience only help to a degree - a lot of the outcomes depend on events and the decisions of a small group of actors.
In unrelated news, the hapless chairman of Germany’s SPD has today resigned from his post. As a result, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the current foreign minister will be the SPD candidate for chancellor, and popular Franz Müntefering will return as chairman. While this is not exactly a game changer, it may help the SPD to end their free fall in the polls and limit the damage when Germany goes to the polls in 2009.
From Sarah Palin to Michael Palin
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/education/2699739/Happiness-lessons-to-be-given-to-schoolchildren.html
Always look on the Bright Side Of Life - de-dum, de-dum, de-dum, de-dum, de-dum…….
Let Sunshine rule the day…
Karl Rove explaining why Tim Kaine would not be a suitable VP choice because of his lack of experience!
http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Karl_Rove_on_Tim_Kaine_s_VP_Qualifications_PRICELESS
The GP nonsense is depressing.
In the last race Ferrari had two incidents for which they should have been penalised and weren’t, one of which would have made Hamilton the winner.
Now Hamilton is penalised after a complaint by Ferrari that he had the temerity to overtake one of their cars after that Ferrari bumped Hamilton off the track and across the chicane when he had already overtaken it.
Hamilton then followed the rules and let the Ferrari go in front and then did a fantastic overtake at the next corner.
Ignore the fact that the Ferrari was weaving illegally all over the track to stop him, and resorted to apparent ramming, the overtake and drive through the rain was skill of the highest order.
Ignore, too, that the car which was involved overtook Hamilton again when he had to avoid another car recovering from a spin. And then the same Ferrari span itself which allowed Hamilton through to lead again.
So Hamilton is penalised for having an ‘unfair advantage’ in the first incident despite the fact that he lost the lead after that and then regained it.
Ferrari and the FIA: they will ruin the F1 sport with this sort of Tammany Hall behaviour.
Indeed Hamilton’s offence seems to have been, as Morris D says, that he is not in a red car.
Hamilton will not read this, but if is friends do, tell him to have his revenge by fairly beating the b@stards on the track. Make ‘em bleed. Make Mosely Ferrari red with impotent rage.
17 - Friedrich, many thanks for your comments. Given that Steinmeier as Kanzlerkandidat may help to shore up SPD support, does this mean that another Grand Coalition is now more likely after the 2009 election, or is there still a chance of a “black-yellow” or even a “Jamaica”?
Vielen Dank
A fascinating post. The detailed insight from informed commenters on rich and populous European member-states needs to be set before us. It offers, too, an awful foreshadowing of what might be done in the next 20 months in the UK. Should there be a parliamentary decision to change our first past the post electoral system - and there are many good arguments in favour of such a change, apart from Labour’s desperate need to change the rules of the game - we just might be faced with an attempt at a grand coalition with some power left in Labour hands. Heath hesitated over a similar coalition attempt for days, but was stymied by the FPTP system still in place.
6 - Easterross, thanks for your input. I agree that the negative barrage against why independence would not work is counter-productive. My view is that while we could all survive independently, we are stronger as a United Kingdom and we should positively sell this. If we do not start soon, it could well be too late.
21 - well put Witan, that was a bl**dy disgrace. One of the worst ever sporting decisions I’ve ever seen. They also made a really controversial decision against Bruno Senna in the GP2 race as well.
23, FPTP is a longshot better than damned PR, which renders government to be always a coalition. Mind you, there are some alternatives (transferable votes within a constituency, that sort of thing) which would be an improvement.
But given the utter balls up Labour have made of devolution so far I’d sooner trust Robert Mugabe to reform the electoral system.
21 F1 is getting stupid and I don’t know why Ferrari are letting it happen. They’re starting to do incalculable damage to their own brand with this nonsense.
23
Heath was keen to enter into a coalition with the Liberals, it was Jeremy Thorpe who decided against. Well he did when he was contacted by Lord Wigg, who informed him that if he went through with it, Wigg would send details of the Norman Scott affair to the Mirror.
Perhaps now might be a good time for the Conservatives to raise the Ecclestone donation to the Labour Party again. It’s shocking that anyone has to grovel to this man because of the power he wields through his wealth.
Gave an absolutely disgusting interview on FiveLive the other day when questioned about the London Olympics where he said that he thought the Games organisers should be hoping the site gets hit by a terrorist attack to stop it happening.
29
Yes Eccllestone’s anti-Olympics outburst can be compared to that of Boris’s mate Brian Coleman.
http://www.boriswatch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/colemanonolympics.png
30, come on kids, let’s not let Labour-Conservative wrangling get in the way of unified loathing of the latest in a string of soap opera political decisions that have marred Formula 1 for the last few seasons.
25-Not being a fan (I liken it to watching paint dry), but why do people get so excited about F1? No one seems to get so fussed over, say, 100m sprints (just as exciting IMHO).
On the other hand am all for anything that will embarass the Labour party. Amazingly, Ecclestone was the one who did away with Tony’s whiter-than-white mantra. Perhaps the first chink in his armour. Now Tony long gone, but Eccestone still there…
31
Don’t get me wrong I hate Ecclestone, I’m a staunch anti-smoker, (hangings to good for the bastards) Blair’s canoodling with that guy made me wanna vomit.
I just feel that the blemishes on both sides should be pointed out. No party has a monopoly on virtue.
I feel for Hamilton, I think he’s getting a really bad deal.
Interesting that even though the polls show McCain closing, Sporting’s electoral college votes spread has gone up by 4 in the last few days, including +2 today. Further evidence that punters are looking at the key swing states that McCain has to win - and concluding that he won’t win enough of them to win the White House. Current Obama prices may look very good value indeed when we look back on 5 November…
30 - Actually it can’t. Only one wished a terrorist attack on london to prevent it happening.
Anyway i hardly think criticising Ecclestone is party political!!
14. Too early. I’m not sure the fundamental mathematics have changed yet.
18. Thats nothing i’m sure I heard yer man Balls saying they were looking at more personalised for kids, more suited to their particular level of skill, learning or whatever.
Now tell me if I’m wrong, if I’m crap at maths does that mean I get an easy test?
6.”I think all of us who are unionists are sleepwalking towards the breakup of the UK.”
I agree with that to a certain extent, the pro Union parties should have combined to push through a referendum right after the SNP won power last year. The was a missed opportunity, and the perfect way to sell a positive rather than a negative campaign for remaining in the Union. I don’t fear independence, I just think we are stronger as UK wide Union.
But as yet, I have not seen this groundswell of popularity for independence in the same way I noticed it for the SNP in that 6 months leading up to the Scottish elections. I have never heard anyone who is not a paid up member of that party even raise it as issue that is paramount in their lives.
Someone on PB.com(I think) coined that phrase that the EU is like catnip for some in the Conservative party despite the fact it does register for ordinary voters. I think that the issue of Independence has a similar effect on our fired up SNP membership. The voters gave the keys to Holyrood about 18 months ago, I don’t think that they are quite ready to sign the house over to them or anyone else just yet.
38. More personalised testing…
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/sep/04/labourleadership.gordonbrown
39.Apologies, typing in a rush means tons of errors.
400 from last thread. Sorry England is not pro-union at all. A recent Telegraph poll showed that 59% of English voters support Scottish independence, 48% of English voters want immediate English independence and 68% want a fully blown English Parliament equivalent to Holyrood. If you believe these statistics show England to be pro-union, you are mistaken.
There are many reasons why needs independence. Devolution is not working and far too expensive. There is too much resentment of England and the English across the other parts of the British Isles, they need to be set free for their own sake and self respect and not be seen ‘to be sponging from the English’. Independence will solve these problems and allow home nation greater autonomy and accountability which is currently lacking. England has no national government, the regional assemblies are a waste of time do not promote a sense of Englishness which needed in today multicultural world. Independence will enable ethnic minorities to feel England instead of identifying with being British, the BNP will be put down in seconds. Independence will solve the WLQ once and for all, and we can renegotiate our international agreements including those with the EU. Currently the EU cannot assist England in getting fairer government because the EU says devolution is an internal matter for member states. I could go on as to why I think the union should be terminated, but there not enough time here.
Too many people say England needs a Parliament but it will result in too many layers of unwanted government, so the best solution is go beyond devolution and go straight to independence instead. The rise of English nationalism if the fault of the out dated Lib-Lab-Con failed parties. Independence is coming whether you like it or not.
34 Before the conventions, when McCain was trailing by 1-2 points in the national polls, he was even or ahead in the electoral college, so this does not make sense. Prepare for McCain to be ahead in the state polls as well as the national poll average in the coming week and for a couple of surprises statewise.
If Nate Silver at 538.com is right, McCain was some 4 percent ahead in Rasmussen poll today, and 6-7 percent ahead in Gallup. We might just have witnessed the tipping point in this election. But of course, there is always the possibility that things will settle back to about evens again by the end of nest week.
The current BF price for McCain is good value IMO.
43, the rise of English nationalism is due to the English being electorally disenfranchised by Labour’s unnecessary and botched devolution.
44. You think its time go in now?
43.Yawn, its like hearing the same old petty grievances in stereo surround sound.
Sarah Palin to debute on ABC:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080907/ap_on_el_pr/palin
Much as in Austria, I would even now say that the results of the general election in 2009 are pretty much a foregone conclusion (unless today’s shakeup helps the SPD far beyond expectations). The CDU will emerge clearly as the largest party, the SPD will face massive losses even from the poor result in 2005. The Left Party (DIE LINKE) will most likely form the third largest group in the Bundestag, unless the CDU underperforms dramatically and there’s a large swing from CDU to FDP (unlikely). The Greens will have a good result in absolute terms, but their marginalization in the political debate will reflect in them being the smallest party with seats.
Now the question of coalitions. The safest outcome from a betting perspective is a CDU-FDP government. This is of course appealing to conservatives, but may not be in the CDU’s long-term interest: it will help to unify the parties of the left, which (in my opinion) have a structural majority in Germany by now. If the numbers allow it, Merkel will not be able to explain why she rejects the right’s favorite option, though. In my opinion, this is the only stable factor you can bet on in 2009: CDU+FDP majority means a CDU-FDP government.
The next tier would be Grand Coalition or “Jamaica” (CDU-FDP-Greens) coalition. The Grand Coalition is neither popular nor effective, but it works quite well for Merkel. She’s not Thatcher. She may be happy to simply continue governing not having to bother with parliament. Despite its many downsides for them, the SPD may still prefer this option to its alternative: Jamaica. The latter would bring the Greens into a center-right government. Crazy? Not at all, the Greens by now are a class of the liberal middle-classes. This would establish a new conservative coalition quite similar to Cameron’s approach right now. Risky as it would be, its success would perhaps relegate the SPD to an opposition role for a generation.
Finally, there could be a “traffic light” coalition (SPD-FDP-Greens) or a coalition of SPD, Greens, and the Left party. The first one makes no sense. The SPD and the Greens will lose the next election. Why should the FDP tie themselves to two losers who still get along very well but both don’t particularly like the FDP? The red-red-green option, finally, may be the only credible path to a social-democratic chancellor, but the SPD hates the Left party too much to consider and has publicly rejected the mere possibility too many times. After 2009, this option will likely become the preferred one of the SPD, though. It’s simply logical.
In short, my betting advice for Germany would probably be to think of it as a race between CDU-FDP and a CDU-led Grand Coalition. If the numbers allow it, bet on the former, if not on the latter. Merkel is not ambitious enough for Jamaica to make any sense for her and all other options are possible but highly unlikely without major changes from the current state of affairs.
Sorry for the length, but there seemed to be some interest in a betting perspective on Germany. Since Austria is closer, I may read up a bit on the current situation and give my view as well.
“Independence will enable ethnic minorities to feel England instead of identifying with being British, the BNP will be put down in seconds”
I’ve got to say that this is one of the stupidist statements i’ve ever read. No offence.
45.
50, no need to apologise. Always helpful to hear the views of those from the area:)
44 - I don’t know where you saw he was ahead but the sites I know showed him behind, the states that McCain needs also are very concentrated, he doesn’t have a wide range to call on so state polls are very much awaited.
As for percentages we could have taken the 11 and 10% leads for Obama recently as tipping points. In reality, neither are, they are just noise created by unbalanced coverage and lack of time for analysis to kick in.
By Wednesday’s polling (published Thursday) we will see which way the movement is and by next weekend things should start to be a bit more stable.
“Independence” will simply lead to two more groups who can be demonised for coming to England and stealing all our jobs - the Scots and the Welsh.
The Ferrari bias in F1 is out of control. Disgusting decision. The Ferrari drivers themselves must be embarassed by this fiasco.
In fact anti-Scots and Welsh sentiments could well even be greater due to a perception that they have actively voted not to be a part of this country.
47. Petty grievances? That’s why the Scots have turned nationalist, the English are turning nationalist too - all because the old parties have failed us all by promising referenda on the EU then fail to deliver, imposed an unfair devolution settlement on another part of the UK without consultant that electorate. Sorry the Scots Tories imposed Poll Tax a year early in Scotland, not the English, and that’s why Scots Tories are nearly non existent. England gets called Britain all the time and we are told England does not even exist!!!! Isn’t that cause for grievance?
57 - ‘In fact anti-Scots and Welsh sentiments could well even be greater due to a perception that they have actively voted not to be a part of this country.’
part of which country?
Currently the EU cannot assist England in getting fairer government
The EU have no intention of providing any member state with fairer Government. How can an oligarchy assist in providing ‘fairer’ Government?
Truly priceless…..
54. Re yesterday: begining to see my viewpoint ukpaul?
56 If Hamilton had backed off and then waited until they were round La Source and took Kimi then there wouldn’t have been any problem. Although he gave the space back to Kimi he didn’t lift the pressure off Kimi.
I can understand the decision.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/07/uselections2008.republicans2008
This may have been posted but its interesting summary.
54. Evens in Rammusen today. McCain leads 3 pnts in Gallup. also todays news.
Most people who support the union, do so for sentimental reasons, what we don’t know, is it the best model for the 21st century.
I no longer think it is, it’s time to explore the possibility that the union is past its sell by date.
Devolution was not botched at all, the proof of that, the Conservatives who once opposed it, now accept it, some (the Welsh Conservatives for instance) admit they were wrong to oppose it, and even are saying it should go further.
As for the English, its time to examine whether even England is viable, and to consider moving to the pre-Norman states of Wessex and Mercia.
57 English nationalists are not racists. Anyone who lives in England is classed as English because they are affected by government policy. Britishness is taught in all of England’s school - and ethnic minorities are trained to identify with Britain, not England. Racism will die when England becomes independent, because the English will be allowed to become English again.
62 - Entering the corner he was up Raikkonen’s backside. He had no obligation to back off.
Independence will enable ethnic minorities to feel England instead of identifying with being British
I’d love to see Francis debate this point with Yasmin Alibhai-Brown..
If anyone saw her express her views on 18 Doughty Street last year they’d know that is one British Citizen who will never accept being English and I suspect she is far from being alone.
59 - the UK/England after independence.
66 - it’s quite scary that you actually believe that. The vast majority of ethnic minorities see their British status as protection against racist persecution. They owe their right to be in this country because of it. “Britain for the British” doesn’t work as a racist anti-immigrant slogan because Britain used to encompass a third of the globe. “England for the English” would.
Regarding the US campaign. I think it doesn’t make much sense to judge the state of the race based on polls that reflect the convention bounce. By Monday or Tuesday, Obama’s figures should start to improve again. We’ll see where they end up.
The 538.com analysis of separate days suggests that the current McCain bounce stems mostly from the day after McCain’s speech. Of course it’s difficult to tell how much of that is Palin’s afterglow and how much is McCain in his own right. Still, the controversies around Palin and McCain’s relatively weak speech could have led to a smaller bounce. So it’s good news for the GOP.
Setting aside figures for a while, I think the GOP has gained a massive boost in mobilization from their convention. Republicans will turn out, canvass, and donate. The problem is that McCain has a spending cap and additional money may still be used, but cannot be coordinate effectively or put into official McCain ground operations. The non-monetary advantages may be much more important, though.
Still, I think the Republicans have perhaps killed their chances. They have not used their free airtime to establish a compelling narrative how McCain will help Americans struggling with economic difficulties. Perhaps party id is misleading and many new independents will return to the Republican fold. If not, spending a convention on getting out the conservative vote may have been a mistake.
62. There is an arguement to say that Hamilton wouldn’t have had to cut the chicane if Raikkonen hadn’t pushed him off. And look, this comes after a long list of incidents where Hamilton/Mclaren have been penalised, whilst Ferrari get the benefit of the doubt.
Just look at the last race in the Valencia, where Ferrari let Massa out into the pits ahead of Sutil. That was dangerous driving in the pit lane from where I was sitting, yet the FIA used the weak excuse that because there wasn’t an accident (even though there could have been?) it wasn’t dangerous. The whole show is becoming a farce.
69. Alex. Why would England for the English be more racist than say, Ghanaians for Ghana would be? Your whole premise just dosn’t stack up.
68 This is precisely the problem in England. Minorities are trained shun Englishness by the left wing establishment. An independent England will force the education system to become pro-England, unfortunately people like Yasmin Ali-Brown create more and more racism, and Guardian Liberal snobs encourage them to become Anglophobic. English independence will hopefully chase the anglophobes out once and for all, only those pro-English should be allowed to live and work here. Why are etnic minorities in Scotland, Wales and Ireland pro Scottish, Welsh or Irish?? because their left is patriotic, unfortunately the English left is anti-English.
“As for the English, its time to examine whether even England is viable, and to consider moving to the pre-Norman states of Wessex and Mercia”
Why? No one (apart from a handful of eccentrics) identifies with them.
And regardless of what Francis may say, few English people identify with his litany of petty grievances, which is why the English Democrats get about 0.3% of the vote whenever they stand.
65. As for the English, its time to examine whether even England is viable, and to consider moving to the pre-Norman states of Wessex and Mercia.
I think you mean the island of Britain as it was before the Viking Invasion of Guthrum (8th-9th Century) don’t you? Fact is England was unified by Aethelstan nearly 150 years (927AD) before William turned up. Pre-Norman England became a proseprous place (why do think William invaded?)
69 - I didn’t say it would be more racist. “Ghanaians for Ghana” would be racist if it was aimed at removing Whites from Ghana.
What i said was that it would work as a racist slogan, with the implication that ethnic minorities weren’t English. Since Britain used to encompass 1/3 of the globe it is much harder to portray ethnic minorities as not being British.
Re 75 er prosperous (typo)
43 “Currently the EU cannot assist England in getting fairer government because the EU says devolution is an internal matter for member states.”
Thank God for that. Although it’s possibly the only area the EU thinks it shouldn’t meddle in.
I don’t doubt that when asked the question, English voters come up with an answer off the top of their heads - but it would be interesting to see it listed in one of those polls where they ask people to prioritise political issues. I’d bet it would hardly register.
By the way do you have a link to that opinion poll?
72 - agree - some of the posters on this site are stirring up a hornets nest regarding Scotland and eventually it is they who will get stung.
61 - Not at all, you appear to think that a convention bounce is a permanent irreversible thing. That is not the case and, in this race, when the big factor for the change has been someone who people have little information on, then that change back will come sooner or later, I hope sooner but it may be later.
For the record I knew the same would happen with the initial Obama bubble. People seemed to see him as a friend to all parties when that was clearly not the case. The same will happen with Palin, who now seems to be leading the ticket.
O/T the GP decision seems pretty disgraceful.
79 - not at all. It is (almost) self evident that “Scots shouldn’t come here and steal our jobs” will be more of a rallying cry for the anti-immigrant right after independence. It wouldn’t be remotely justified, any more than “England for the English” should justify targeting ethnic minorities, but that is what some will try to forment.
Not an argument against the Scots doing their own thing, but letting English nationalism out of the bottle is potentially a very dangerous thing.
74 Utter British Tory trash. Anyway I support the Free England Party now, the EDP will not endorse independence but I expect them to change. PS the EDP have pushed your beloved British Tories into third place and anti-English Labour fourth in council election in Yorkshires. Your argument about EDP winning 0.3% is like saying that the SNP only won 10% of the vote in the 1983 GE. Nationalist support increases day by day.
65 “Devolution was not botched at all, the proof of that, the Conservatives who once opposed it, now accept it, some (the Welsh Conservatives for instance) admit they were wrong to oppose it, and even are saying it should go further. ”
I’m not sure that shows they were wrong: just an acceptance that the political landscape has changed and you have to accept reality the way it is, not the way you would like it to be. If devolution has been botched, it seems reasonable to accept that it is probably an irreversible step (short of some sort of fundamental crisis in one of the devolved nations) and that the best strategy is now to work to make it work better. If Scottish independence ever happens I am quite sure the Unionist parties will campaign against it, and then work within the political system of the newly independent Scotland.
76. I still say your whole premise is wrong. Britain no longer has an empire and most so-called progressives glory in that fact.
It was a Old Boy Tory government that opened British borders for former empire citizens to settle. One of the biggest mistakes of the last 60 years. Since then MINORITIES have flooded into the country, and even Frank Field says enough is enough.
Englnd for the English! And about time too. If MINORITIES dont like it, then, they can leave.
81 You equate English nationalism with the BNP - we have nothing to do with the BNP. The BNP are unionist just like the Tories, Labour, Lib Dems and UKIP.
82 - Judean people’s front!
0.3% vs 10%… hmmm
85 You might want to redraft that statement, it makes it sound as if the only difference between the FEP and the BNP is the question of unionism
“74 Utter British Tory trash. Anyway I support the Free England Party now, the EDP will not endorse independence but I expect them to change. ”
The Judaean Peoples’ Front, as opposed to the Peoples’ Front for the Liberation of Judaea, then?
“PS the EDP have pushed your beloved British Tories into third place and anti-English Labour fourth in council election in Yorkshires. ”
Oh really? How many seats do the Conservatives hold in Yorkshire, and how many do the EDP hold, then?
“Your argument about EDP winning 0.3% is like saying that the SNP only won 10% of the vote in the 1983 GE. Nationalist support increases day by day”
I shall watch their advance with baited breath, then.
87 - lol
87 The FEP does not tolerate racism in any form. We want nothing to do with the BNP, they can merge with UKIP instead.
Jankovic and Williams play at an ungodly hour (2am tomorrow). 3-3 on previous meetings, all hard courts. Jankovic is about 4.3 on Betfair. Set betting has 8-9 for a 2-1 or 2-0 win. Quite possibly worth a punt. The odds on being able to lay for an all green result are reasonably high (assuming you’re on at that time).
75
think you mean the island of Britain as it was before the Viking Invasion of Guthrum (8th-9th Century) don’t you? Fact is England was unified by Aethelstan nearly 150 years (927AD) before William turned up. Pre-Norman England became a proseprous place (why do think William invaded?)
And its been down hill ever since!!
91 Morris
Thi is hardly my subject but isn’t Murray great value at 1.67 to beat Nadal? Even assuming Nadal takes the third set (no foregone conclusion), Murray still has two more goes at winning a third set. The point count to date is heavily in Murray’s favour and Nadal has struggled to hold his serve so far. Unless there’s a big turn round in form, Murray should win. He’s surely more like a 1.33 chance.
Or am I missing something?
Btw, agree wholeheartedly about the F1 thing. Have cancelled my order for two Ferraris in protest.
84. I completely agree, what on earth were the Tories thinking in the 50’s by starting the imigration of Non-whites into this country. It has just caused grief and strief for the incomers and the resipant communities have been far from thankfull.
Instead of importing people who, frankly were initially treeated like shit what, they should have done was unpick trade union laws and work ethics that discouraged change. Probablems with getting “Bus drivers” would not then occured. Actually recently I have thought about becoming a Bus Driver but I would probably get rejected from that as well.
30: ‘Yes Eccllestone’s anti-Olympics outburst can be compared to that of Boris’s mate Brian Coleman.’
What’s wrong with Coleman’s article? Seems perfectly sensible to me.
92. I know you used to be a Grumpy Old Man but not that old surely!
;0)
95 Coleman is an extremely eccentric individual, and generally causes considerable embarassment to the Conservative Party.
ChrisA on the last thread - yes, Steve Webb reads pb.com and contributes occasionally. He’s possibly the most cerebral LibDem MP - an interesting man to have in committee, always coming up with original questions. It’d be good if he posted here more.
Thanks to Double Carpet for the briefing on Austria and to Friedrich for the lucid analysis. I think my main additional comment is that the lesson of the current polls is that the SPD will be unwise to continue as a junior partner in a government with the Left Party outside: it is simply an invitation to their left wing to walk away, and this on its own seems to me the main reason for the Left’s success. The SPD need to be campaigning against a centre-right government to regain traction.
There was an attempt to form a Left Party in Austria as well, but the various factions weren’t able to agree in time for the election, and the ex-Communists, who form such a major part of the German party, are a shadow of their former selves in Austria (<2%).
WRT Canada, looking at the polls, there must be some risk of the Liberals coming in third in terms of vote share, behind the NDP.
92. Naah it was only for the Norman and early plantagenate period that wasn’t much cop. The Black death stopped the rot when it finished off feudalism.
It’s only when the new feudalists turned up in the late 19th Century that things started going wrong again…..
;o)
OT but this is a serious abuse of public money..
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23551841-details/Government+accused+of+spin+over+plans+to+fund+400%2C000+show…+fronted+by+Jeremy+Kyle/article.do
93, hee hee, got Murray at about 4/1:p
With a whole £2. Still, better for me to get used to punter behaviour patterns with tiny stakes.
Actually, I think if Nadal can hold on to his break he stands a reasonable chance of winning. Murray played out of his skin (apparently, I just went by BBC website comments not seen a shot myself) so if he relaxes just a bit or gets nervous or Nadal ups his game it could get interesting.
If I were betting on the match result (not going to, happy being green on both for small sums) I’d back Nadal, assuming set 3 goes on serve, then back Murray, assuming the odds swing nicely against him.
Nadal has proved at Wimbledon he handles breaks in play extremely well, is still a better player than Murray, has more experience and has a break already in set 3.
I should add the proviso that I placed my first bet a few days ago, so take my analysis with a hundredweight of salt. That said, save for the GP disgrace, I’d have won 4/5 bets.
Of more interest to me right now is the Winner of the tournament. 4.5 and 5 roughly for Nadal and Murray respectively. If Murray breaks back, then 5 (4/1 in proper money) are great odds to win the tournament.
102 Erm…thanks, Morris.
Was that a yes, or a no?
101. Jeremy Kyle is a F*cking Cnut!
His programs are depressing and irratating - I have to turn over within a minute of his program coming on.
What a wast of money.
By the way, I had an interesting piece of information from the jobcentre the other day - I was chatting to a memeber of staff who advised me that the government has stoped trying to get people into work and is more concerned with managing the administration of benefits. Therefore don’t take in the rubbish about James Purnell cracking down on dole dossers - it is not going to happen.
The Government have halted courses that try and evaluate peoples weak points and focus them into getting into work.
To my mind this is yet another sign that the governments economic policy is in tatters.
103, oh, sorry. I’m looking it at the perspective of a chap trying to be green whatever happens, not on who’ll win.
I wouldn’t like to call it. Nadal only needs to hold serve to get to 2-1, and he’s a fantastic player.
If I had nothing on it now and was going to bet, I’d back Nadal (2.46 at the time of writing, so better than evens), watch him win the third set, then back Murray (assuming he gets to evens or better). That way, you’re green whatever happens.
Unless Murray wins the third set, then you look a bit dim.
OT
what time is Murray on Court? 10.00pm Uk?
105 Hmmm…I’m not a tennis man, but I wouldn’t put it past Murray to win that third set. I was looking at the match stats. Interesting.
9pm. Men’s final is tomorrow at 10pm, women’s is tomorrow morning, 2am.
9pm British Summer Time. So next year sometime then.
105, I only really watch Wimbledon, but Murray would need to break twice or break and win the tie break. Likelier for it to go on serve or Murray to break and lose the tie break, I think. Still, your money, and your title suggests you’re good at making choices:)
Anyway, if you think he will win the third set there’s only two bets for you:
win the match
win the tournament, available at 4/1. When he wins the match the odds will shift so you can lay for immediate double greenery.
“This is a serious abuse of public money…”
As serious as Labour commissioning an ad campaign for ID cards which no-one wants, whose data won’t be secure, and will be scrapped by the Conservatives anyway?
110, aimed at 107.
108
tx.
103- Peter- Nadal at 2.5’s is fantastic value. With a break up, he wins the set, he will fall to evens (even though Murray is still a set up). I have just backed him with 50 notes.
Then back Murray as his price increases to evens or above.
Andrew threw 200 quid at 10-1 for a 3-1 Murray win. A great bet.
100 But Feudalism was quite likely an Anglo-Saxon invention.
101.Didn’t they get away with a similar stunt on policing?
“Last year judge Alan Berg branded The Jeremy Kyle Show the human equivalent of ‘bear bating’.
[...]
‘It seems to me that the whole purpose of the Jeremy Kyle Show is to effect a morbid and depressing display of dysfunctional people who are in some kind of turmoil,’ Berg said at the time.”
Yep. That’s the DWP all right.
114- by the way I had to come out of betting retirement today because I think Obama is going to slip to 1.75/1.8 over the next 2/3 weeks,and had to change my positions accordingly and drastically.
115 They may well have done, but they are now being watched. Everything they do is watched. The Blair years are over and done with.
Bhahahahhahahahhahahahahahahaahahhahahahahah
Lib Dems Sued over £632,000 doanation from Michael Brown.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/07/liberaldemocrats.partyfunding
LD’s should return this stolen Money asap.
It is not good enough saying that the electoral commision “passed” it. If someone takes stolen goods and they pay for it the Police will recover it - The LD’s have taken money that was obtained by a third party fraudulently - they should return it along with the other £1.8 Million Brown has stolen from people..
70. Yes, I think you’re right. Just by selecting Palin, McCain pacified and got enthusiasm from the right. She didn’t need to then go on to do a partisan attack-dog speech. He could have chosen her, solidified his right-wing, and then got her to talk about bipartisan, centrist solutions and appealed to independents. Big tactical mistake in my opinion.
119
Msrk Senior said the Lib Dems were in credit. He may have to revise his position….
121. The LD’s need to return that money asap, Maybe Chris Huhne should tap his pocket and pay help the party out of its acceptence of this money fraudulently obtained by a third party and then donated to the LD’s.
Murray match delayed by NFL
Every day more bad news for Gordo.. 1979 is looming large
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7602849.stm
122. The LD’s need to return that money asap, Maybe Chris Huhne should tap his pocket and help the LD party out of hole. After the acceptence of this money fraudulently obtained by a third party and then donated to the LD’s.
114. Not in the History books and documentaries I’ve seen. Feudalism was adopted by the Normans to suppress the Saxon population.
124, damnit. Any idea of how long?
125. This country is falling apart - we are all F*cked!
119 / 122.
The best of it is that the Electoral Commission has not yet ruled so you never know they might find they have to pay the whole lot (£2.4m) to the public purse just before the next GE. Presumably this action and any legal costs could be on top…..
Well the Govt’s claims about public sector pay fuelling inflation are absolutely nonsense. It’s completely illogical when they say that it’s global factors (Oil price, food) which are doing it. At least be honest and say that it’s because the Govt hasn’t got any money!
131, well, they can’t say wage inflation is the cause, but they can say they are heading it off.
The problem is that some three year public sector deals are bloody abysmal. One (for the HMRC I think, or some part of it) is 2%, 1%, 1%.
131 there would be no problem if it was not for the fact that so much of the ecomomy is used in paying…. civil servants
132 - Really? That really is shocking!
It doesn’t feel quite so bad waiting for Unison to agree to our 2.5% pay deal!
For those who bet on matters financial I am hearing that the FTSE may very well open 100 points higher tomorrow.
No such thing as a “cert” but I thought I would pass on my information
135
Yup I work for a council in one of my 4 part time jobs, 2.5% of naff all is naff all and useless when inflation for me is way above Gordo’s imaginary 2% inflation rate.
102: “Nadal has proved at Wimbledon he handles breaks in play extremely well, is still a better player than Murray……”
I’ve been saying this for a while, and may not look too smart by the end of tonight, but got to stick with my narrative: Nadal is not good on fast courts, and particularly fast hard courts.
That’s why Nadal usually goes out in 4th round at the US Open, and the courts here are even faster than last year (conspiracists suggest they wanted Roddick to win, realists suggest they want to define themselves against the new Aussie Open surface and slower Wimbledon grass). On top of this, Nadal has not impressed in the tournament so far - his energy wall is approaching, and he simply can’t chase down power shots to the court corners on this speed of court. That’s critical to his game, and without it he’s very beatable.
Basically, what I’m saying is that Murray on form is a better player than Nadal on this speed of court.
Dollar collapsing as Far East trading begins. Sterling opened over a cent higher than Friday…
136 - Interesting - 1.87 available for 9-9.20 “UP”
138 Thanks Andrew.
Just heard the remainder of the match is being played on the A Ashe court, not the L Armstrong one they were on yesterday. Strange. And apparently the Ashe court is slower.
Hmmm….
But 1.02-1.1 to open higher!
141 - the scheduling for this US Open has been an embarrasment. Heads should roll.
139 - yep but 1.4340 on the Euro acted as strong resistance in Friday trading. Think it will today as well - if the signals are right then a long dollar position on the back of these falls could be good, we shall see.
134, 135, well, it’s for some part of the public sector. Couldn’t swear to which precise bit.
138, 141, interesting and useful stuff:)