Did you miss out on the McCain 40/1?
September 8th, 2008
Has the race reached a tipping point?
As the chart shows there was a time at during November and December 2007 when the McCain betting price for President reached 40/1 and congratulations to those on the site who were highlighting this at the time and got bets on at what now seem sensational prices.
Alas I was not one of them. I took the view that the 72 year old Vietnam veteran was just too old and didn’t give him a chance. How wrong can you can be?
For even if McCain doesn’t do it the 40/1 punters have a bet which has a current value which they can lay off now on the betting exchanges or the spread markets.
But should they? Overnight the best McCain price has tightened to 13/8 and that could move even further following the first polls showing the full impact of last week’s Republican Party convention.
The latest USA Today poll makes it 50-46% for registered voters and a 54-44% split amongst those voters who say they are “likely to vote” But you would expect post convention polls to show a boost - we need to wait a week to see the full impact. Just before last week’s convention and after the Democratic one the same polling survey had McCain trailing by 7%.
One worry that the McCain camp should have is that so much of the polling move seems to be down to the Sarah Palin affect - not too McCain himself. That can’t be healthy and it makes her potentially very powerful.
She over-shadowed him at the convention and is continuing to attract all the media attention. She’s become the big star and, unlike McCain, seems to push all the right buttons with the Republican party base.
Maybe this is crazy and I’m throwing money away but I’ve invested £14 of my V-P nomination profits with bets at an average of 422/1 on her to be the next president. It will only take a McCain sneeze or a senior moment for that price to come right in. Remember her quip “What’s the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick!”. She doesn’t sound like someone who’ll be content to stay for long as a number two.
Thanks I’ve just got back from my holiday in France and for me this morning is back to normal. I am most grateful to Morus and Paul Maggs for all they did to keep the site going. They did a great job.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Has there ever been a Presidential election in which the VP has caused much more enthusiasm than the P - not just in August but actually when it comes to the crunch in November? Is it enough to make a difference?
Oh, and I don’t think that “What’s the difference between a hockey mom and a pit bull? Lipstick!” somehow proves that she “wont be content to stay for long as a number two.”
……unless you mean that she’ll set her pet pitbull on McCain and savage him to death in February?
btw, is Bristol Palin’s fiancé pronounced “Lee-vye” or “Lev-eee”?
USA Today (online) had a story about whether it was now Palin-McCain rather than McCain Palin. Personally I don’t see it as too bad a thing - McCain will very likely only run for one term and so if the public loves Palin (as they do, her approvals are higher than Mac, O & Biden) they’ll like that idea. McCain now, then Sarah vs Hillary in 4 years.
They changed the travel schedule too - They were due to split up after a few days but they were drawing such record crowds that they’re keeping them together a few more days at least. The new polling is incredible, bounces haven’t been that pronounced in the 24 hour news age so it could be more sticky than recent years.
A friend of mine on a business trip to Houston commented it was all Palin Palin Palin on the box.
Compared to her Biden seems to have been a damp squib.
Whoa, steady on rushing to conclusions on the Sarah Palin impact. I’m in the States at the moment and there is a lot of hype about her. But in terms of the polling impact, there is more uncertainty:
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08.htm
Biden has a +12% impact on Obama, Palin a +6% on McCain in terms of likelihood (though the poll was taken a few days ago.) But for the vast majority there is no impact at all.
Actually, the poll bounce is down to the Republicans having a superlative Convention: no Bush/Cheney attendance, Palin making an exciting entrance onto the stage killing the Democratic Convention overhang (i.e. a tactical play), the inept response to the Palin appointment by left-leaning bloggers/ comedians, the powerful focus on McCain’s biography, and, though slightly stilted at times, a powerfully patriotic speech by McCain himself.
Quite brilliantly, the Republicans have managed to seize both the establishment-experience narrative and the outsider-reform narrative (though this is rather more thin.) Surely that can’t hold?
Mike is right, we’ll know in 7-10 days time.
USA TODAY/Gallup Poll
Among likely voters:
–> Mac : 54
–> Obama : 44
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm
———–
The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples.
Among the findings:
• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.
• Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a national unknown before McCain chose her for the ticket 10 days ago, draws a strong reaction from voters on both sides. Now, 29% say she makes them more likely to vote for McCain, 21% less likely.
Obama’s choice of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate made 14% more likely to vote for the Democrat, 7% less likely.
• McCain’s acceptance speech Thursday received lower ratings than the one Obama gave a week earlier: 15% called McCain’s speech “excellent” compared with 35% for Obama.
The Politico : “They’re chanting John McCain, too”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0908/Theyre_chanting_John_McCain_too.html
Although Palin has been sensational, the tracking polls suggests that most of the bounce came after McCain’s convention speech. This can be due to a lagged effect of Palin’s speech, but I also suspect that McCain’s speech went down rather well, even if his delivery is not star quality. He has something else - sincerity, which may appeal to the American electorate.
I hope Yokel managed to buy some McCain yesterday, after I advised it was time to buy
Politico: “New ad ties Obama to disgraced Detroit mayor”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/
Russell Brand endorsed Obama at the MTV awards overnight.
That should be worth a point for McCain in the opinion polls…
Pollster’s Margie Omero: The Palin Effect, more base-rallying & fewer gender differences
…A full 80% of Republicans say the pick makes them more confident in McCain
…59% of Democrats feeling less confident…
[independents : 44% more confident, 37% less confident]
…charges that the press have treated Palin unfairly resonate with Republicans more than they resonate with women….
…(57%) of Republicans say she has been treated unfairly…
…Democrats (27%) agreeing…
…men (55% treated fairly) and women (46%)…
…(67%) say Obama’s selection of Senator Joe Biden has no difference on their vote,
…(55%) say the same about Palin
…Palin runs up the score among Republicans and evangelicals (+37, +32 more minus less likely to vote for McCain, respectively). But moderates say Obama’s pick of Biden makes them more to vote for Obama (+12 more minus less), with Palin having neither a positive or negative net affect for McCain.
Mike,
Very sensible bet - I’ve done the same (Palin @ 300-1)…. McCain not standing is a quite plausible ‘black swan’ event. I’ve also backed Biden as well at a similar price to go with my McCain (20-1) and Obama (16-1) bets. Hopefully I’m covered!
Chris Trinder
http://kickingbets.blogspot.com
The really interesting long term bet would be what odds would you now get on BOTH candidates in the 2012 election being women?
One obvious (if ghoulish) question - how would the “next president” bet be settled if McCain-Palin won the election in November but McCain had a stroke or whatever after the election and before swearing in in January? Would it be settled on the basis that McCain was the one who won the election, or that Palin was the one who actually got sworn in? I think if you’re betting on Palin this is something that needs to be clarified.
Random - one votes for party representatives who then vote for the president. In some states their hands are tied, but most of them are free to pick whomever they please. Each state gets a cetain number of these in the electoral college depending on their population, and each runs its own election to allocate these. Maine, for example, isn’t first-past-the-post for the whole state, but nearly all the others are.
13. It will depend on the individual bookmakers’ / market operators’ rules and definitions. Betfair define it as the winner of the election (ie NOT the person inaugurated), though that still leaves room for doubt as the actual election to choose the president takes place in December and is counted in early January (the November 4 election identifies who will make that choice). That said, unless the Electoral College is very close, with the risk of faithless electors swinging it or court challenges changing state results, I’d expect all bets to be settled shortly after November 4.
14. It’s a constitutional anomaly, but were an elector in one of the states where the electors’ hands are ‘tied’ to go against that state law, even though they may be committing a local offence, providing that the vote gets to Washington to be counted, it will still be valid.
As far as the Palin bet goes (one which I took myself though when she was 999/1), three things would all have to happen to get a payout:
- McCain would have to become an unviable candidate between now and November
- Palin would have to be chosen in his stead. That’s likely but not automatic - the choice rests with the Republican Party hierachy. Unlike the Democrats, there’s no stand-out obvious alternative, though there are others who could no doubt step up to the plate if asked. Where Obama to have to resign the nomination, or be ruled out on health grounds or similar, it would be a much closer call between Biden and Hillary.
- Palin would have to beat Obama. Despite the enthusiasm for her across much of the country, she’d surely be second favourite as there’d have to be doubts as to whether she was that ready to make that big a step up that quickly.
In response to the thread, yes, I did. 40/1 for him and 50/1 for Obama…. with £40 you could’ve had a guaranteed minimum profit of £760. Not bad going.
Makes me wonder about putting a fiver on certain 2012 contenders (Schweitzer, Romney, Bloomberg).
You were on holiday, Mike? I’ve got to say I didn’t even notice
Nearly got it, Mike. I took 33s and 25s, after much badgering from Yokel. Thanks mate.
Like a number here, I have taken out cheap insurance bets on Clinton and Biden at mega odds. I haven’t bothered with Palin. I just can’t see her doing it, even if by some twist of fate she got the Nomination. I suppose it is just about possible - Caligula’s horse did make it to Consul - but it’s just a tad too far fetched for me.
Btw I think Republicans will be happy enough if she makes it through to Election Day without damaging their chances. She’s flavour of the month right now but she strikes me as a very high risk candidate.
For those like myself whose only close up view of McCain was his speech at the Tory Party conference I can well understand why 40/1 didn’t look like value.
Unless he’s since upped his game considerably I can’t understand him even being in with a shout. Americans have very peculiar taste in who they choose for President. It’s a pity the rest of us have to be affected.
FTSE up 190
Where is Gabble?
I believe McCain was actually available at 50/1 at one time with Paddy Powers. He was 33s with Ladbrokes during December and quite a few people are sitting on some nice bets, including some from round these parts.
Ladbrokes have gone 1/2 Obama, 6/4 McCain - not surprisingly we’ve seen some of the biggest bets of the entire campaign on Senator Ovenchips come in during the last twelve hours or so.
We will be paying out on the result immediately after General Election day. It’s a bit like our Grand Prix rules. If you backed Hamilton yesterday, you get paid out because he was the one on the podium, irrespective of what happened after.
The Palin speech was quite wonderful. It reminded me of Arthur Scargill in 1984 - great delivery but the content was utter tripe.
The next test is the VP debate where (like Dan Quale) she is up against a seasoned pro.
That’s quite a bounce. At this point it seems hard to justify odds of worse than evens against McCain. Even though bounces subside, his ticket clearly has the momentum and the media interest.
Roger, by the same token Socialists have very peculiar taste in who they choose for their Leader. It’s a pity the rest of us have to be affected.
22 “He was 33s with Ladbrokes during December and quite a few people are sitting on some nice bets, including some from round these parts.”
Shadsy, you’re not sulking, are you?
What’s the difference between Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney? Lipstick.
A novice politician makes his entrance onto the stage:
‘Exclusive: I’m fed up with Labour being slagged off, blasts Glenrothes by-election hopeful Lindsay Roy’
“Some people seem to have quite short memories of the improvements in the standard of living, of the minimum wage, of the investment in the regeneration of our country, improvements in education and the reduction in crime. I’m not a close friend of Gordon Brown. I’ve met him about 12 or 15 times but I’m privileged to have been called a friend of his. And I feel Gordon Brown and the Labour Government have integrity. There is a sincerity about their values and what they are trying to achieve.”
Roy will take leave of absence from school when a date for the by-election is set. Then he will become a politician for the first time in his life and he admits he has “a lot to learn” in that role. But he also believes he can win. He said: “I think the odds will change. I’m quite confident they will.”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/09/08/exclusive-i-m-fed-up-with-labour-being-slagged-off-blasts-glenrothes-by-election-hopeful-lindsay-roy-86908-20728423/
26. No, PtP, I shall be cheering them on.
is a pitbull that wears lipstick a man with a menstrual cycle?
I’ve just heard the most annoying interview ever on Today.
Ed Miliband used the phrase “As I say…” so many times (in fact to start nearly every sentence), that I completely stopped listening to what he was saying in order to count the number of times that he said it!
I challenge anyone to listen to it without wanting to scream at him!
25
Don’t knock socialism, its just saved capitalism, yet again!
Ken Smith’s Diary in The Herald:
‘Taxman knoweth’
“Political candidates will look for any favourable signs that they are going to do well in an election. We bump into Peter Grant, the local council leader who is the SNP’s candidate in the Glenrothes by-election who tells us excitedly: “I’ve just got a new tax code from HMRC with a letter saying We believe you are currently between jobs’.
“Do they know something I don’t?”
http://www.theherald.co.uk/features/diary/display.var.2442460.0.Dont_cry_for_her.php
29 Erm…presumably, Shadsy, this is because you wish the leaders of the Free World to be people of standing, wisdom and intelligence?
I wonder if ABC will effectively question Sarah on these matters?
http://www.alternet.org/story/97907/sarah_palin’s_9_most_disturbing_beliefs/?page=1
Or will the GOP’s “reality TV show” just keep rolling/
Yes Ed Milliband was tring to spin the cabinet meeting in Birmingham as something good. Think of the cost of having cabinet meetings all round the countrty. Bad idea, waste of money achieves nothing. Its like the EU meeting in two places as it does, hugely expensive and for what?
George Galloway MP - column in the Daily Record:
“He could have been Ramsay MacDonald or Philip Snowden - the first Labour disasters in No.10 and No.11 Downing Street during the crash and the Depression of 80 years ago - in the frigid orthodoxy of his refusal to do anything, well, popular.
In fact, as I looked at him, dressed for dinner like the clots who sunk the Titanic, that was the image I couldn’t get out of my mind. The captain, ramrod straight, sphincter clenched, hands knuckle-white on the wheel and staring straight ahead … sinking, sinking, right down into Davy Jones’s locker.”
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/comment/columnists/lifestyle-columnists/george-galloway/2008/09/08/sinking-feeling-86908-20728351/
35
Palin says she’s a “conservative Republican” who is “a firm believer in free market capitalism.” She’s running as an anti-tax crusader, and she did make deep cuts to Alaska’s budget.
Hmmm can’t wait to see if she will support the nationalization of the mortgage market: bet she does!!
Janet Daley speaks sense…
Look across the pond for a lesson in listening to the people
By Janet Daley
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 08/09/2008
Having spent the past two weeks immersed in American politics (spiritually, not physically), I must try to readjust my eyes for the British domestic scene.
Janet Daley: McCain tells his story
Read more from Janet Daley
Full coverage of the US Election 2008
It is not just the difference in scale that is disconcerting - this is a small island, after all, not a continental superpower. It is the sense of a wholly different conception of the relationship between government and people.
Britons snigger at Sarah Palin but in American politics ordinary people call the shots
After more than 40 years as an American expatriate living in Britain, I have not got over the shock of being in a democratic country where the governing class holds the views of ordinary people in such contempt: the priorities of the public - whether they are uncontrolled immigration, lack of appropriate punishment for criminals, or the outrageous cost of the basic necessities of modern life - can be disregarded or dismissed if the governing elite decides that they are wrong-headed or benighted.
There is almost no sense at all of the principle that underpins the US Constitution: that in a democracy, the will of the majority of the people is sacred.
What prevails in Britain is the received wisdom of the professional political club. And that includes not just those elected to Parliament but their entourages, their party machines and their media hangers-on. Of course, Washington has its insider cabals and its incestuous “inside the Beltway” culture. But no member of Congress who wishes to survive can afford to become as detached and disdainful of popular opinion as members of the British political class openly (and shamelessly) declare themselves to be.
It is a positive point of pride among politicians here to say that they bravely hold out against “populist” demands - which is to say that they wilfully ignore and deride the concerns of ordinary people because they are not sufficiently enlightened to be worthy of consideration.
advertisementThis has produced a problem in deciding how to respond to the great vulgar exercise in mass democracy across the pond, so unlike our own dear patrician system, in which slightly varying species of a patronising, paternalistic elite will tell you what is best for you if you will just be quiet and listen.
From those first caucuses and primaries in which a succession of hopefuls - one of whom was destined to become leader of the most powerful nation on earth - trooped through the living rooms of Iowa and the diners of New Hampshire, it has been clear that this is a democratic process of another order.
Now there is an intruder on the scene who has jumped straight from the hinterland to the threshold of power. Sarah Palin has aroused vituperation of an obscene and disgraceful kind in the United States, but in Britain she is more often depicted as merely ludicrous: where America spits, Britain simply sniggers.
Both reactions are despicable. But the first at least takes her seriously, because even the smuggest US liberal knows that in the great popular process that is American politics, ordinary people will call the shots.
British politicians now duck any direct confrontations with the general public - the only equivalent of American “town hall meetings” are carefully staged events in which the audience is vetted, and packed with hand-picked “questioners”. The days when a prime minister (or even an opposition leader) would make himself available to open assemblies and face down hecklers is long gone.
John Major revived the tradition briefly in 1992 with his soap box, and was rewarded with a surprising victory over Neil Kinnock, whose staff studiously avoided any unscripted encounters with the voters. There is no reason to think that in the next general election there will be much change: the crucial test of a potential prime minister will be not how well he relates to real people, but whether he manages to stand up to Jeremy Paxman.
It’s a game played within club rules: if all the players decide that anxiety about crime (”moral panic”) or concern about immigration (”ignorant bigotry”) should be out of bounds, then that is where it will stay. And everybody - politicians and media alike - will join in the campaign to re-educate the people out of their nasty obsessions.
I go on about the media because they play such a significant role in this. In Britain, television and radio are heavily regulated in their content: in their news and current affairs coverage broadcasting organisations are required by law to be officially neutral and “balanced”, which effectively means that they must all subscribe to the premises of what constitutes acceptable mainstream opinion (as determined by the “enlightened few”).
In the US, where regulation means controlling little more than the dispensing of broadcasting bandwidths, there is a wild proliferation of “talk radio” stations and competing cable news channels, whose political predilections are clear: Fox News on the Right is countered by MSNBC on the Left. The war between them (which in ratings terms is won hands down by Fox News) is explicit and lively.
You pay your money, and you take your choice. You do not feel, if you have views that do not fall within the circumscribed limits of a New York dinner party, that you are being driven out of the public discourse. If there is demand for a certain type of programming, the market will fill it, whether it is for political variety or ethnic diversity.
And just as the free market offers scope for diverse opinion, it also offers real power to the consumer. Americans expect the price of petrol to drop in immediate and precise relation to any drop in the world price of oil. They would be flabbergasted at the idea that a price-fixing conspiracy between petrol companies, combined with a rapacious, over-taxing government, could artificially maintain high prices even when the cost of the basic commodity had fallen.
They would be staggered, too, by the exorbitant prices charged by British energy suppliers, which could persist only in a country that fails to understand how real competition can protect the interests of ordinary people better than overweening government.
But at least Britain still has some sense of the value of mass political participation - unlike the architects of the EU, who have given up on it altogether. Having decided that democracy equalled mob rule, they opted for a return to oligarchy. Britain does not have much time left to decide which political model it prefers.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/09/08/do0801.xml
38.Coldstone - Anne Kilkenny takes issue with the claims Sarah cut Alaska’s budget;
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2008/09/myth-of-sarah-palin-as-tax-cutter-and.html
35. We can only wait and see how well Palin will do in front of the TV audience. My gut feeling is that she will ‘Wow’ them.
I’s a bit different Mike from a few day’s ago.
A few hours after McCains choice of Palin for VP, you and others were betting that she would be dropped from the ticket. Now you’r betting 422/1 that she will become the next president after the incumbent elected in November. Could anything be more volotile?
42, Lib Dem income tax policy.
is that gallup poll a separate poll they’ve done for USAToday, or have they just gone and taken the last two days worth of tracking poll data? if its the latter be very very careful using it for betting purposes.
40
They would be staggered, too, by the exorbitant prices charged by British energy suppliers, which could persist only in a country that fails to understand how real competition can protect the interests of ordinary people better than overweening government.
Gosh, thanks to the last Conservative governments privitization the UK has the most, ‘Liberalised’ energy market in the world, and its produced higher prices, something wrong there?
Perhaps its time we follow the US in this, if they can nationalize their mortgage market, taking energy back into public ownership, and breaking the power of the big oil companies, should be a doddle. A true socialist like George W Bush, has shown us the way!
Sorry to be off topic but does anyone know who’s paying for this cabinet stunt today - first class rail fairs for members, civil servants, security etc. - is it all of us, or just we poor Birmingham council tax payers?
41. It is now well known that Anne Kilkenny is an enemy and political rival of S. Palin. Her stements have proved distorted, to say the least.
You had to go back a week in time to drag that one up.
re 14 I think Betfair will settle in November. I remain far from convinced that the electoral college would vote for Palin as president if he should die between 4th Nov and 15th Dec.
46, I’m sure, in the spirit of equality, Birmingham council tax payers and all British taxpayers will be footing the bill.
Just think of the economic benefits that will be derived from the aura of the Supreme Leader’s presence!
[I'd buy sandbags and bottled water if I were you. And perhaps a sawn-off twelve gauge, for when the inevitable zombie apocalypse strikes in the wake of Brown's arrival].
41. So what is incorrect or distorted in Anne Kilkenny’s presentation of her views on Sarah’s handling of Alaska’s budget?
re 29 Labour candidate in Glenrothes Some people seem to have quite short memories of the …improvements in education
Well then what’s he doing standing for Westminster? He’ll have bugger all effect on the educational standards of his constituents, as it’ll be nothing to do with him as a Westminster MP.
It’s amazing that these Labour types themselves don’t understand the dog’s breakfast they’ve created with their botched devolution settlement.
46 - well I suppose on the bright side it’s nice to see that both Labour and the Conservatives see Birmingham as a city worth fighting for. The Conservatives have their conference here, of course, and this trip shows that Labour don’t want to be muscled out of local politics here completely.
McCain down to 2.5 on betfair- flip flop by end of Sept ?
McCain cannot afford to be overshadowed by his VP. McCain’s campaign needed an injection of life and it has got it, but as a potential President the public remain unimpressed as far as I can see.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
Philippe is the Gabble of McCain-Palin.
What’s the difference between Sarah Palin and Dan Quayle? When it comes to abortion, none whatsoever.
56. Gawd - it’s going to get ugly on here if it continues to be close - if the Republicans win I can see a few meltdowns
RE: Ed Minibrand. I am bored rigid by all these Brown relaunches. The man has more relaunches than Dirty Den and still ends up in a worse place, more damaged than before the relaunch started.
Brown is a brand that is so badly damaged that he is completely unsellable. He could not be given away in a supermarket. He is the Ratner of politics, a brand bereft of any value which damages all that he touches.
With that said, as a Conservative I hope Labour sticks with him right down to 150 Labour MPs after the next GE. I guess I just have 20 more relaunches to tune away from?
Some [OT] science news, since I noticed that some more excitably breathless PBCers were dribbling about this over the weeked.
Professor Brian Cox of Manchester University, quoted in the Telegraph says that “Anyone who thinks the Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world is a twat.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/09/05/scilhc105.xml
“if the Republicans win I can see a few meltdowns”
Me, or the USA?
49. Do not know whether Gordon has yet arrived in Birmingham twenty miles away or how he is getting there. But we have just got our electricity back on following an earlier power outage. Can this have anything to do with his visit? Neighbouring villages did have severe floods over the weekend!!
60. Both - you and Wolf Blitzer
“Anyone who thinks the Large Hadron Collider will destroy the world is a twat.”
Of course the world won’t end in 2009 — not when the Mayan calendar doesn’t run out until 2012.
Why is Brown not up in Morpeth downing a pint of COBRA ?
Liberal bloggers are revolting
http://www.theliberati.net/quaequamblog/2008/09/07/clegg-goes-bonkers-again/
@60:
Bush is the greatest friend the left have ever had, but are too dense to realise it. However, the palpable relief when McCain wins will be felt throughout the leftosphere worldwide.
65. This writ scandal should be interesting too, lib dems have been acting holier than though over funding for ages.
re 61 I thought only the Americans had power “outages”?
69. We are serviced by what used to be called Aquilla, an Amewrican owned company, although it is now Central Networks. The nomenclature sticks.
Well, I had McCain at 1.2 on SpreadFair. With a current Sell of 15.6, that’s 14.4 to 1 at the moment and 23.8 to 1 if he wins in November.
I know what you’re thinking: “Smug git.” And you’d be right, except for the fact that I sold him at 9s during the primary season as I couldn’t believe even the GOP would be stupid enough to back a bloke who puts a speak-your-weight machine up there with the greatest orators of all time.
69 Should be 68 and American.
68, 69 - I’m afraid this one crossed the Atlantic some time ago. Mobile phone companies talk of “outages” also. Apparently the words “service failure” are just too painful to say.
‘Brown’s cosy relationship with unions set to be ripped apart’
http://tinyurl.com/6ym9xr
Maybe all those who think the Hadron-Smasher is going to end the world will end up committing suicide, like that ‘Heaven’s Gate’ cult did in response to the Hale-Bopp comet of 1997?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 49% .. Obama 47.5% .. Others 3.5%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 179 .. Obama 243 .. Toss Up 116
Changes Since Last Projection - Colorado, Montana, Ohio and Virginia move from Toss Up Obama to Toss Up McCain. Indiana and Missouri move from Toss Up McCain to Likely McCain. Michigan and New Hampshire move from Likely Obama to Toss Up Obama. New Jersey, Iowa, Wisconsin Peensylvania and Minnesota moves from Safe Obama to Likely Obama.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 269 .. Obama 269 .. TIE
The 44th President of the United States of America is decided in the House of Representatives.
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
66
Don’t include me in that, I’m desperate for a McCain win, then hopefully Palin will take over, when McCain becomes incapacitated.
oooooh! can’t wait!!
@75:
OMFG!
An ARSE tie! Squeeeeee!
75. Which way will the ARRSE crack ?
@76:
We all need somebody to hate, right? May we live in interesting times.
79. The Palin/Cameron summit in Downing Street in Q3 2010 should see a mass suicide at the Guardian offices - WACO style.
@75:
Jack, serious question. Why has the ARSE seen these huge moves towards parity, whilst fivethirtyeight is still firmly blue-pie?
80, Palin makes Cameron look like Michael Foot!
75-That’s a big shift from the ARSE.
Curious you are still calling Montana a toss up. If you think NJ is close, then Obama could be in more trouble than we thought.
Hopefully UPMYASS will be out later today, or more likely tomorrow morning (BST +5).
80
If that woman gets near the big red button, we won’t see 2010.
81-While not casping doubts on the mathematical premise of 538.com, I do notice it is more rabidly Democratic than, for example, rcp.com is Republican.
81 Martin. 538 hasn’t factored in the latest polls and will only do so later tonight.
Also the margins for some of the toss up states are mighty thin - Ohio, Virginia and Colorado make up 42 EV’s between them and all have just tipped into McCain’s column. Reverse them and we have Obama 311 to McCain 227.
82,84. Thank goodness you haven’t resorted to hyperbole ….
I have no interest other than a wedge laying Obama sub 1.50 - but you guys need to calm down.
Other thought for today Gordon Brown = Amir Khan.
83/85 Peter2. Montana is almost Likely McCain whereas New Jersey is still at the higher end of Likely Obama.
Whilst Nate at 538 supports Obama and much of the comment is pro Obama, his site analysis is excellent and shows no bias.
o/T LSE closed by computer crash.
Betfair has responded somewhat sluggishly to the latest poll news. You can still buy McCain at 2.52 and sell Obama at 1.7.
Perhaps punters think it’s all a bit of flash in the pan.
87
Palin and her pals, will take the US over, declare it a theocracy, it’ll be Munster all over again.
Raised a bastard and dogged by poverty, young John became a charismatic leader who was widely revered by his followers. According to his own testimony, he went to the German city of Münster, arriving in 1533, because he had heard there were inspired preachers there. He sent for Jan Matthys, who had baptized him, to come. After his arrival Matthys - recognized as a prophet - became the principal leader in the city. Following a failed military attempt on Easter Sunday 1534, in which Matthys died, John of Leiden became King of Münster until its fall in June of 1535. He set up a theocracy in Münster and led a communalistic and polygamous state. Some sources report that John of Leiden took sixteen wives. He publicly beheaded one of his wives after she rebelled against his authority.
The army of Münster was defeated in 1535 by the prince bishop Franz von Waldeck, and John of Leiden was captured. He was first taken to a dungeon in Dülmen, then brought back to Münster. On January 22, 1536, along with Bernhard Krechting and Bernhard Knipperdolling, he was tortured and then executed. Each attached to a pole by an iron spiked collar, their bodies were ripped with red-hot tongs for the space of an hour, then each was killed with a dagger thrust through the heart. Their bodies were raised in three cages above St. Lambert’s Church, the remains left to rot. Their bones were removed about 50 years later, but the cages have remained into the 21st century.
84 - It is curious, is it not, that the one time that the planet came to the brink of uncontrolled thermonuclear war was under the presidency of a man who is a pin-up for liberals.
91.
92
Ahem! or saved the planet from thermonuclear war! After all the very right wing, Curtis-LeMay head of SAC, wanted to launch a strike against the USSR, luckily Kennedy didn’t support him.
92 — Under the presidency of a man who wisely disregarded the hawks’ advice to attack Cuba, you mean?
91. Did you get a thrill out of reading and then posting that? I rather fear you did.
Gordon plays the sympathy card
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4699482.ece
90 PtP. We’re going to have to wait until later in the week for the convention statistical noise to work its way through.
In the mean time we’ll just have to treat polls, especially state polls sampled immediately after the GOP convention with caution. As I noted yesterday Rasmussen are polling Florida, Virginia, Michigan and Ohio every Monday for Fox News. It’s not unreasonable to expect the first batch today to be pretty good for McCain.
97 only no one will have any sympathy for him.
I wonder if Nick Palmer is busily lobbying for the Cabinet to meet in Broxtowe?
96
Let me recommend a book, just get it, ‘The Pursuit of the Millenium’ Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages by Prof. Norman Cohn isbn 0-7126-5664-2
You’ll love it!
If you are an aspiring novelist and want to write the next, ‘Da Vinci Code’ you’ll find something in there to inspire you.
97 dont, I’ll be in tears next…….. what a pathetic card to play.
91 - My first thought, when he picked Palin, was ‘this is sooo like John of Munster’. Creepy.
99, actually, I do have sympathy for his daughter’s death, the loss of his eyes and his possible health issues right now. But that makes bugger all difference to the politics of the matter, you can’t vote for the unluckiest or most miserable chap if he’s an incompetent.
I was staggered that so many Americans changed their mind about Hillary following her amazing powers of leaking water from her eyes. “Look… she’s crying… that alone qualifies her to be Commander in Chief of the world’s most powerful military.”
“outage” is a very useful Americanism, says in one word and two syllables what “power failure” says in two words and four syllables.
I don’t understand why people have a problem with Americanisms when they are good and useful. What is annoying is when inferior Americanisms replace good Britishisms.
An example is the ugly acronym “ATM”, which is taking over in Britain from “cashpoint,” which was a shorter and neater neologism of our own. And we did invent the damn things.
And while we’re on the subject, I have recently noticed a few people in Britain using the illogical American way of giving dates: month/day/year. This is stupid AND confusing. Hope it doesn’t take off.
Laters.
94, 95 - You miss my point. The relationship between the risk of nuclear war and the politics of the president are far from straightforward. Both of you are also too charitable. The real hero of the crisis was this man:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasiliy_Arkhipov
Before I forget, I must thank Morus. He tipped Sarah Palin some time back on here with very cogent reasons why she should be chosen. His reasons were so cogent that I had a flutter on her (one of only two potential vice-presidential candidates that I put money on). This place can indeed make you money.
@102:
I’m getting more of a Handmaid’s Tale/Republic of Gilead/Serena Joy vibe from Sarah Palin, personally.
I persuaded some non-anorak women to watch McCain.
Their over-riding impression? The only topic was—did he use botox? The majority view was: yes. I was instructed to look closely at his upper lip. And what about what he said? ‘I didn’t hear anything in particular’.
In the US, as here, these voters are the majority.
98 It seems to me that the JackW who has returned from a prolonged absence due to illness seems to have rather different interests and pre-occupations from his earlier incarnation.
For example, Old JackW was often voluble on Scottish affairs, but despite that fact that Scotland has been increasing discussed on pb.com …. there has not been a peep from New JackW. New JackW is only interested in the US elections.
I’m not complaining, as I prefer the New JackW … just curious.
105 - You’re very welcome antifrank - I fear I may have put off as many as I brought in by saying I thought she was perfect, but later expressed that Troopergate would probably rule her out (the scandal to experience ratio).
There were people who were earlier and fiercer cheerleaders for Palin than I, but if you are happy to still give me some credit, I am happy to receive it!!
103. Actually Brown trying to get sympathy in this way is pretty tastless, I think - especially with respect to the tragic death of his daughter. But it seems there are no depths the New Labour spin machine will not plumb.
80.Of these dreams and nightmares is the future made. SARAH SARAH SARAH SARAH SARAH SARAH.
104, bastardising the date like that should be punishable by being tied to a chair and forced to watch Darling’s Budget statement for 24 hours. It makes no bloody sense at all. At least the Chinese do it entirely backwards, which makes some sense.
108 Gwynfa - There’s no contradiction. The link between the new and old JackW is that they both like money. The US elections is where the money is right now. When the eyes of the world turn once again to Scotland, Jack will return his attention to the land of his origins once again - and cash in as usual.
re 75 Jack W you forgot to add the final sentence. Obama is the 44th POTUS.
112 - The Hungarians often do dates completely backwards too. And addresses. And names, Dancer Morris.
Interesting bit of gossip that Merv may resign if Gordon continues to borrow irresponsibly…
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2068576/the-scale-of-browns-broken-economy.thtml
108 Gwynfa. How could you forget the ARSE ?!?!?
Britains greatest political resource and election prediction service. (Never knowingly undersold)
The fact is if I devoted even more time to the site than I do, it is entirely likely that Mrs Jack W would ensure that the following did not appear :
Jack W is 106.
100. If we are into recommending books; read “Gardens of the Mooon” by Steven Erikson. A Fantasy of High Quality; firstin a series of 10.
112. To be fair the only people I’ve seen doing it are people who work at my agents - William Morris Associates. They are basically an American company, so maybe the infection has spread from LA and New York to their subsidiary London office, and not beyond.
But it was deeply confusing. I got an email from my agent saying she was “sorry she was out of the office for a month and a half” or somesuch - a month and a half??? - then I realised she was using Americanese in her dates.
Tish tish.
re 104 “cut” is even shorter and monosyllabic. I remember doing my homework by candlelight in the early 70s during the frequent “power cuts”. We have replaced a perfectly decent English term with an ugly American neologism.
Interesting news -
‘London Stock Exchange said on Monday it had not yet set a time for resumption of trade by mid-morning after it suspended connectivity at 0813 GMT. A spokesman for the LSE declined to comment on what had caused the problem, or when it may be resolved but said connectivity would be restarted on an auction basis’. (Released 11:26 08-Sep-08)
re 112 either the way we do it, or the Chinese (which is also the astronomical way) makes sense because you have a continuing increasing or decreasing order of units D/M/Y or Y/M/D
119 When I worked for Ernst & Young, SeanT, we were obliged to use the US format in all communictions. Everybody worked with in London hated it, even the Americans.
113 PtP. Mercenary moi !!
114 Chris A. It’s certainly true that a tie favours Obama, however ARSE (BUTT) election prediction service is for the Electoral College and should you wish you might wish to bet on the tie.
120. Don’t be daft. Cut means nothing. “There’s a cut”. A cut where? A paper cut? A cut in your salary? A cuttage of cullions?
You need to prefix “cut” with “power” for it to make sense, making two words with three syllablues.
Outage does the job in one word with two syllables, so it’s still superior. And its new. New words add to the transplendiferous glory of English.
115, aye, makes it fun deciding whether it’s Oda Nobunaga or Nobunaga Oda. Is Hungary a collectivist culture?
Americanizms
123. Interesting! Thanks Peter. So its a problem with UK companies that are subsidiary to bigger American concerns. Hm.
I see the opportunity here for a short yet notably boring article discussing the issue, possibly in the Independent; and that’s if I can even be bothered to pitch the idea, which I probably can’t.
I think I’ve lost my freelancers mojo. I blame all the thriller-writing. S’more fun.
125 - “Outage” conjures up no visual image, while “power cut” elicits a vision of a big pair of scissors being taken to an electric cable - much better. “Outage” is a pasteurised, enervated word that shoddy service providers seek to palm us off with, in a vain attempt to avoid admitting to their own shortcomings.
Where do you stand on “dearth” versus “shortage”?
128, they won’t hire you anymore because you’ve been penalised irrationally, and replaced with a Brazilian for reasons that are not immediately apparent.
“# 103. Actually Brown trying to get sympathy in this way is pretty tastless, I think - especially with respect to the tragic death of his daughter. But it seems there are no depths the New Labour spin machine will not plumb.”
There’s a new regime in the Bunker, with Wilf Stevenson and Comrade Ballsov in charge of “strategy” - so from now on, expect the unexpected in terms of hitting new lows
If Mcain wins in November, Palin will be POTUS by January 21st as all she has to do is cross her legs in front of Mccain in a Basic Instinct manner.
re 125 no, it doesn’t; outage doesn’t necessary mean power, it could refer to anything and we’ve already had an example of a mobile phone provider provided upthread.
129. No, sorry, I’m still cool with outage. It sounds technical yet is perfectly comprehensible. I cam imagine using it in an abstract form, and its nice the way it nearly rhymes with wattage. Or tottage.
And if you want to be dramatic you can still revert to power cut, for that “oh my god where are the candles feeling”.
One word I do not understand is “ouster”.
“Certain groups in Bangkok are calling for the president’s ouster”. I see that a lot. Shouldn’t it be “ousting”?
Er, are we wandering off topic now?
Personally, the mot juste at the moment is “Brownout”. Very popular in the Philippines when I was there in the 80s.
125 don’t forget that “www” at nine syllables is considerably longer than the three of “world wide web” which it abbreviates…
Good to see an unhappy looking Scot overcome tremendous odds, beat a glamorous no1 and put in the best performance in over 10 years!
133. No, but outage DOES mean the temporary unexpected failure of some kind of power, telecommunications, electronics or similar network.
I like it. Sorry! Obviously its not as good as cullions. Or katzenjammer.
In case you missed it, here is a link to Palin for President.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jf1y9s73Nos
130 You remind me, Morris Dancer, about a George Bush story.
Apparently the Leader of the Free World was distraught when he heard that three Brazilian soldiers had been killed in Iraq. He asked to be reminded exactly how many there were in a brazillion.
I’ll get me coat.
75 — Jack W Boy :
If it’s 269-269 and Mac, for instance, wins the popular vote, does he win?
141. Surely that would go to Congress, which would break the tie in favour of Obama?
140. Actually, I quite liked it.
Isn’t McCain now following the core vote strategy that worked for Bush in 2004? He rose as the credible face of the Republican Party post-Iraq, but now he seems to want to get the Faith/Family/Flag voters that Rove targeted 4 years ago. Or is it God/Guns/Gays? Anyway it’s risky, because surely Palin reminds people of the unpopular neocons.
To us she seems absurd, but more absurd than Bush II? In American terms, is she more extreme than Obama? I would be putting my money on Obama now, as once the media hysteria dies down, sober reflection should show Palin to be as crazy as we think. Why McCain chose her when the polls had increasingly tightened since Berlin is a mystery.
‘Terminator: The Sarah Palin Chronicles’
142- Can the Congress gives it to Obama even if Mac wins the popular vote? — that’s what I’d like to know…
According to a national Survey USA poll, 49 percent of people who heard both convention speeches now believe McCain will win (Obama 44). This must be the first time McCain has led on this question. And the underlying figures, McCain leads in health, education, energy, suggest a large overall lead for McCain.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=662cadf9-6890-4da1-a61b-7501c8783a97
He even does very well in the Columbus Ohio TV market.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=de36aff6-6c55-417f-a028-451452e8ea92
Plenty of comment about my use of the word “outage”. None at all about whether Gordon passing somewhere near contributed to the out(r)age.
143. Your post is a mess of confusion and prejudice. There is a world of difference between god, guns & gays republicans (traditional heartland Republicans, like Palin, if you like) and neo-cons.
The latter were a bunch of intellectuals, often Jewish, who usually started out on the hard left, and who came to believe American military power should be used *pre-emptively* and aggressively to secure Israel and expand liberal democracy.
I think most American voters can tell the difference between trad Republicans and neo-cons, so I’m not sure why Palin should be a confusing factor.
Also, to most Americans Palin does not seem crazy at all. She doesn’t seem crazy to me. I bet she doesn’t seem crazy to lots of Brits, much as that may surprise you. A feisty, gutsy, funny, attractive, intelligent woman who just happens to be very patriotic.
Sure she believes in creationism, but so do ALL CATHOLICS. And how many women believe in astrology? What matters is that she seems capable, sincere, honest, and likeable. A regular hockey mom with plenty of brains. That’s appealing to many people.
You are a classic example of why the left keeps losing the plot - on both sides of the Atlantic - the fact that you can’t see her appeal actually says more about YOU.