Ipsos-MORI figures corroborated
September 17th, 2008
Is the biggest loser Nick Clegg?
As reported in my second update on the previous thread I have just spoken to a journalist who had the embargoed Press Association story and he has corroborated the figures.
Clearly these are sensational numbers and will put pressure on both Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg. At least Labour has the consolation that its vote stayed at the same level in the survey as in the last poll by the firm in August.
For Nick Clegg - still reeling after his £30 a week pension comment - these numbers could not have come at a worse time. In one sense he’s fortunate - his conference is finished and he could have had an uncomfortable few hours if the poll had come out before his speech
For Labour the story goes on. There can be little doubt that without a change at the top they are facing a disastrous general election within the next twenty months. Would a new leader make a difference?? It might and that just undermines Brown’s position. Potential rebels have almost nothing to lose.
There’s due to be a mass of polling in the next few days ahead of Labour’s gathering in Manchester. In the bunker they must be praying for something that offers a glimmer of hope.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Is Nick Clegg the biggest loser? yes. What has that got to do with the polls?
Are people really making a big deal about the ‘£30′ comment? It was a human error, and the worst I’ve seen levelled against him is a ‘did he sleep with 30 or 90 women’ gag. Don’t think that has anything to do with this poll…
Lib Dems are being squeezed, but I think this is an outlier.
The Lib Dems cannot change their leader again - they would look ridiculous. Clegg is the man to lead them into the election and much as I really don’t like him or the Lib Dems, he hasn’t done an awful lot wrong - pension gaffe aside
It is interesting but I think we have found Labour’s bedrock of support being 24%. Labour are indeed looking at a catastrophe.
From end of last thread:
152 PtP “As for NOM, there’s a great twin bet to be had. Buy Cons (or sell Lab) on the spreads, and back the NOM option on Betfair. If Labour do contrive a comeback, you’re covered.”
I’d considered that a couple of weeks ago as an insurance policy, but the odds didn’t look sufficiently attractive. Even now, at 4.4, you’d have to spend proportionately quite a lot. Worth waiting for this latest poll and other events to play out?
And this poll still hasn’t seen Labour begin to shed votes yet. Is 24% REALLY their floor? I would have expected them to lose at least 1 in 10 of their previous voters after recent events.
2 but it is a big deal Charlie - it shows a lack of awareness of what ordinary pensioners face. It was just human error for sure, but it will damage him.
— SportingIndex spreads market suspended —
A number of interesting gains on these figures for the Conservatives such as Newcastle Central.
Of course, what this poll shows is that David Cameron is doing nowhere near well enough. At this stage he should be polling at least 60%. The best he can hope for is a hung Parliament.
6. Well, clearly it is their floor then.
From last thread for Morus
145- Morus
Yes, for one year when we were 19.
She was much more beautiful than she is today (just teasing you…) 1 of my friends was deperately in love with her and never managed to get close, 1 other friend was not that impressed, but slept with her… good memories!
by Chris (from Paris) September 17th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
Reposted from last thread - just for the craic!
OK, few days later than suggested, but still:
“76 A poll in one of Sunday’s showing the Tories nudging 50% - with Labour 27% behind - might provoke a few more names though….
by Marquee Mark September 13th, 2008 at 3:00 pm ”
I still think it might provoke those extra names to reveal themselves.
I don’t really think it’s Clegg’s fault (although the preparing the government could come back to haunt him). Simple truth is no one cares what the Lib Dems say. They want whoever is best placed to beat Labour. Shame Clegg spent his speech slating Cameron rather than telling Northern Labour voters why they should vote for them.
No matter how bad the poll numbers, Gordo is never going to walk away
3 ooopps - thought Mike was suggesting a Lib Dem change of leader in the story!
2. I’m sorry, it was not a human error. Clegg’s Comment was a grotesque if inadvertent admission of ignorance from a supposed “major party leader”. It was hideous. Almost career-ruining.
If Cameron did this you’d never hear the end of it - “vile, elitist, out of touch posho shows contempt for poor people and the old”. And the thing is, you’d be right. It would show contempt for the poor and the old.
Just cause Clegg is a Lib Dem doesn’t mean he shouldn’t get the same treatment. He should. And he will.
What’s particularly bad is that the suspicion already exists: that Clegg is a vacuous public school toff who is basically a rich shameless careerist europhile who doesn’t know anything about anything.
This stupid remark confirms all those suspicions in one go.
Will Clegg become the first leader of a political party for absolutely ages to lose his seat at the election?
18 Not if Kirkcaldy announces first
These are awful numbers. How low did the Tories ever go? Appreciate different methodologies, etc…..
11
24% will not survive an extra 500,000 unemployed..
17. Wow Sean, calm down.
It will be completely forgotten by the time the election comes round. He handled it very well last night when questioned about it on the News.
Anyway, hopefully I won’t need to vote for him, because Labour will get rid of Buffoon.
12 - She is one of my long shot bets to be PM, if not President, one day! And Sarkozy went for Carla Bruni…
2. Defo not an error of judgement. He clearly didn’t know and should have said so.
18 “And the said Jeremy Clarkson has been elected to represent the constituency of Sheffield Hallam”….
BBC reports that the government will legislate to avoid competition rules for HBOS/Lloyds as stability comes before choice.
As if there is a distinct choice. It is that sort of sloganised policy making which got us into this mess in the first place.
Its all over for Cleggover. They’ve not put it up on LDV yet.. I wonder why…
6 - Yes, after the “rebels” speaking out I’d have thought that there would have been some change in the Labour figure. Surely, Clegg’s gaffe was too recent to have figured in this poll? Perhaps their new uncosted lower taxes policy has been seen through by electors?
Clegg has Gordon Brown’s problem: he has no common touch.
12-Ha Ha
Like the French panache.
Reminds me of a time an English friend of mine went to a French house party in Moscow. He told me, “the bird you “slept with” was there with her new bf/soon to be husband and I (sic) felt so embarassed…..”. Everyone knew, but being French they didn’t give a rat’s arsh.
Oh my God!!! sound like Sean T…. (and Cleggover)
Even the kids want Brown to go…
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5ggvh5jCMZGIFDYSz4GZQW8Ab2S3w
With these figure, it will be easy to spin the conference as a success, evenif the COnservative drop to 48%, the bunker will, doubtless, claim a Brown bounce.
I seem to note that we have not had another relaunch yet !
21. Maybe. But the Labour vote - feeble as it is - does look kind of solid - it never goes far below 25%. This must be bedrock territory.
Their problem is that, these days, it never goes much higher than 25% either, and I don’t think it will now - at least under Brown. Meanwhile, it is increasingly obvious that the huge Get Labour Out vote is swinging entirely behind Cameron (and the SNP north of the border).
This presages a truly crushing defeat for Labour at the GE, as all these forces conspire against them.
They may win 100-150 seats.
32. Sorry sticky keyboard !
Doesn’t anybody care about his statement that he wouldn’t subject his own children to the sorts of schools he would create (if given the opportunity to reform the public schools)? That seems like a terrible gaffe too. How can that one not come back to haunt him?
32/34 - We’ll not ask…
4. James I think you are wrong. I am expecting Labour to drop below 20% in more than one poll in course of next couple of weeks. The latest poll even if is reliable does not fully reflect the leadership debate in the Labour Party (which is likely to warm up) or the difficulties which may arise with the proposed UK bank merger. It is interesting that the still violatile HBOS price is at a massive discount to the anticipated £3 price. It is not a done deal yet!
20 - I think on 09/01/1995 the polls were Lab 62 - Con 18.5 and LD 14… Can’t see anything worse
12 who are you referring to?
18, 19. It’s hardly ‘ages’ since there was last a case of a party leader losing his seat, only three and a bit years.
35. Presume you are talking about state schools ( public schools in the US).
Given the hypocrisy seen with Labour, such as with the arch socialist Dianne Abbott sending her son to a prestigious fee paying school, while the majority of students in her constituency are left flapping in the socialist LEA breeze, this is minor.
I think that what this poll shows is a general feeling by the majority of the public that Labour is not on their side anymore. It’s a long road to recovery this, need to re-engage with the public identify what they care about and are angry about and do something about it or at least make noises in the right direction.
39- MTF
Rama Yade, see last thread
The Libs can’t change leaders again. I mean lets recap since 2005 they have had;
Kennedy
Ming
Cable
Clegg
Another leader this side of the election would be just astonishing, even for a party as inept as the Liberals.
This is of course, a warning for the Labour plotters. They assume that getting rid of Brown would mean his replacement would have to do better and certainly no worse. What Clegg tells us though, is that there no guarantee a new leader for Labour would do any better, and there is some evidence that actually Clegg is doing worse than Ming. Labour could go through all the trauma of assasnating Brown, just to end up picking someone thats as bad or worse. Theres no guarantees.
36. I am using a grotty communal workstation.
The lowest the Tories went, I think was 20 in June 1995- Gallup. Of course, the methodology is different now- as I understand, the Tories would have been understated.
This couldn’t come at a worse time for Labour- the conference looming and the Tories get their second ever highest rating since 1987. The meltdown in the City hasn’t been taken into account either.
If we see the expected infighting next week and a bounce from the Conservative Conference- we could be looking at the Tories getting 60% in the opinion polls and Labour less than 20.
Brown to go?? I’d guess that if he’s not on his way out by the end of the conference, he’ll lead Labour to the next General Election.
35 - I care a lot.
The hypocrisy is staggering. I don’t care whether politicians believe in state schools only, or private schools only, as long as they act in accordance with their principles.
If a lefty parent-on-the-street comprimises for the sake of their kid, I can understand it, but it is utterly unaccetable for a politician *who is prepared to legislate on behalf of other people’s children*.
You can forgive the parent-on-the-street for being a hypocrite because they aren’t forcing their hypocrisy on anyone else.
You can almost forgive the politician backbencher (like Dianne Abbot) the hypocrisy if they have the gall to admit and apologise for it.
What made me furious about Clegg is that he is being hypocritical, from the front bench of a political party, and seemed to expect that he should be lauded as a good parent.
The man is a disgrace in every way.
44. The Lib Dems won’t change leaders, Clegg is long term
50% and the Tories on double Labour was once touted as a red line. Here, I think!
It really is looking more and more like Brown is toast. When was the last time he was seen? He won’t be allowed to shun the limelight next week. Seems these thigns when happen, build a momentum of their own.
BUT, what is in it for Laboutr MPs, since it is incoeivable that a change of leader would not result in an early GE? :
-a place in the history books
-an outside chance of retaining their seat
-principle (with a few noble exceptions, pelase don’t laugh!)
-Tory gold?
Has anyone added an ANTI-Labour tactical vote parameter?
41- You’re probably right. Still, Clegg really boxed himself in the way he phrased it. Instead of simply saying he couldn’t yet say whether he’d send his kids to public or private school, or that he would like to if only he could reform the state schools properly, he basically said that, even if he could change the schools the way he’d like, he would be “irresponsible” to stick his own kids in the “test tube” of his own making. That’s an awful and amateurish comment to make.
45 - There could be *anything* down there, lurking in the ‘Querty Crevices’!
I think Brown needs to look to NASA with help for his relaunches now… perhaps strapped to their latest mission!
wow. if anything like that figure were replicated at a GE you’d have a tory majority that would be, democratically speaking, kinda unhealthy…200+!
38. But, as has been rehearsed many times on here before, Labour’s present predicament is arguably WORSE than the Tories’ in 1995.
Labour are fighting on three fronts: Cameron all over England (and to a lesser extent the LDs in the north of England), Plaid in Wales and the rampant SNP in Scotland.
Labour’s core vote could be eaten up and destroyed right across the UK. Is there anywhere you could now say is absolutely copper-fastened guaranteed Labour, undoubtedly safe from the Tories, the SNP, the LDs etc? I really dunno. A few Welsh seats. Inner city Manchester. Tyne and Wear. Where else?
In 1995 you always knew that the Tories would remain safe in their middle class English strongholds - that’s a large chunk of the country. And you also knew that the Tories would remain the only serious rightwing party, the natural party for a solid 30% of the electorate.
It’s very different, and considerably worse, for Labour. Who do they really represent, and where? And how?
50. It’s one of the all-time worst gaffes by a UK political leader I can remember. What a fool.
37
My charting suggests a low for Labour at around 15%… Next spring at the height of the bad news and FTSE below 4,000.
LOL - LDV: Clegg’s speech has 24 comments of which about half are positive! Still no mention of the MORI poll…….
However we interpret Nick Clegg’s education policy, it will not be implemented anytime soon….
54. Indeed but according to the BBC’s analysis he has emerged from his first conference test ‘unscathed’. Bloke must have been dipped in teflon then.
Gold at $840 +7.5%
Dow -350
Melt down time.
56. Go on, somebody has to ruin it for them.
O/T - Worth pointing out that the current LIBOR spike is worse than the initial start of the Credit crunch. The Interbank markets are now more seized up than in August last year, if the LIBOR spike continues then any company that has any dealing with wholesale credit is in big big trouble.
47-Wasn’t it Tony who started with the “do as I say, not what I do” with the Oratory school and all that? Thsi at the time of Blunkett’s “no selection” speech? (soon conveniently forgotten)
I seem to remember Jeremy Corbyn divorced his wife over this. She wanted to send the kids to my old school (!!) but he wouldn’t have it. I do respect his honesty although I am not sure I would recommend politics trumping family life!
152 (previous thread)
PtP - I’ve just been checking my earlier No Overall Majority bets and remember gleefully taking Coral’s then seemingly generous odds of 1.75-1 as recently as early March this year - it’s amazing how far things have moved over the past 6 months with Betfair’s price of 3.4-1 almost double the odds then available.
Of course, a losing bet is still a losing bet irrespective of how long the odds might be. But your idea of coupling this with a buy of Tory seats/sale of Labour seats looks neat, although I’m not sure how one would work out the arithmetic. Even as a stand alone bet, there must be a reasonable prospect of laying this off profitably ahead of the next GE, IF (key word) Labour changes its Leader in the interim.
62. What school was that ?
31.”Even the kids want Brown to go…”
Proof if it were needed that kids do occasionally listen to their parents views.
62 - If it’s more important to you than your political principle, then you shouldn’t be a politician - let alone a party leader - end of story.
O/T: Does anyone know what the latest date is that the Glenrothes by-election could be held? On polls like this, it would seem in Gordon’s interest to hold it off as long as possible.
…Not that it’ll make any difference to the result.
43 mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!!!!
67 - I think November 11th is the last *practical* date.
In theory, not until the next Parliament, I think.
Labour can go as low as they like. Fact remains that Brown isn’t going anywhere and there doesn’t seem to be a Heseltine figure within the Party.
I still feel all the resignations were oddly timed. Why a week before conference rather than during it?
Tories 40 points clear of the Lib Dems on the day that “Thirty Quid Clegg” proclaims that the LDs are “headed for Government”.
How does he work that one out exactly?
Oblivion. That’s where the LDs are headed for. All 6 of them…
Any chance of 28 Daves just to see what it looks like?
38 James - are those polling figures from 1995 really correct - they are truly staggering and in retrospect it’s amazing that the Tories ever recovered from such an abyss to win around 200 seats two years later.
71. They are actually heading for a yellow Taxi!
53-Tyne & Wear? I think 1-3 seats could conceivably go Tory. Tynemouth the first, Sunderland Central used to be a long shot but maybe no longer, and Newcastle North. I also think the Tories could well pick off as many Labour seats in Wales as PC in case of a landslide. And, I fully expect a pincer movement of Tories and SNP in Scotland.
Quite simply, as has been oft repeated, if Labour are in the mid to low 20s very few seats are safe. Add in anti Labour tactical voting (as opposed to tactical unwind) and it does look very very bleak!!
73. 165 seats!
73 - Scroll through the polls on this link.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/historical-polls/voting-intention-1992-1997
64-QEBS
72 Yes - go on Mike, be a sport. It would be great if you would design it as a pyramid - with 7 Daves at the base and then 6,5,4,3,2,1.
Rogue poll I’m afraid…
75. Indeed, Tyne and Wear looks relatively promising now. Tynemouth was always likely to fall, Sunderland Central would fall on a significantly lower figure than this Mori poll but on these new figures Newcastle Central would also go blue.
OT: Lehman’s London workers completely shafted !
http://tinyurl.com/5tblno
74. And not a big one.
Don’t it always seem to go, you won’t get what you want till Clegg goes…
76 Oops, yes, quite correct Martin - I was thinking of 2005.
Clarkypoos, If you want it.. this YOUR moment!
80 LOL
75. If the Tories don’t win Tynemouth and Sunderland Central then it’s hard to see them getting an overall majority.
47. I agree completely. Nothing annoys me more than so-called leftwingers who educate their children privately.
Someone is bravely buying Labour seats up to 239. Ta.
89. Already gone, but thanks for the short time it lasted.
63 PfP
You don’t have to be too fussy with the arithment because it as you noted; any tightening of the race enables you to lay off the NOM side at a profit.
Objectively the worst result would be a narrow Tory overall majority. Either a NOM or Tory landslide nets you shedloads.
80 “Rogue poll I’m afraid…”
Agree. No way Labour is polling as high as 24%…..
89 - On which market? SportingIndex is suspended.
87-Is Sunderladn Central a MUST WIN? Think not, merely ising on the cake I thought.
However, although normally accurate, Rawlings & Thrasher et al always put a health warning on their notional results. Quite rightly so!
71. Good Evening. There is only one word for Nick Clegg, “Berk”.
How the Lib/Dems ever voted for this Creep as a leader is beyond me. Vince Cable was and is a much better choice, far more knowledgable and a man of wit. Unfortunately the Ageism card was played and the L/D’s are going to suffer.
However now we Know what the Tories were doing the last couple of week’s. In medieval warfare parlance, they were mining under the L/D walls and have now lit the brushwood, causing the wall’s to collapse. What devilry might they be up to when the Labour Conference start’s?
I’ve not heard Clegg’s comment, but on the general principle: I don’t think it is inconsistent to say, “I don’t think my local school is as good as it should be, and I favour the following policies so it and other schools like it get better; meanwhile, I’m sending my daughter to another school.” I don’t have any kids, but I’d be prepared to do that if that situation arose, and I think the public would understand.
When I recently had a cancer scare I went through the NHS as I always do, confident that the service was good and any delay compared with the private sector would be negligible. But if it had happened in 1997 and it would have meant waiting 2-3 months with possibly fatal implications, I think I might have said “We are going to bring NHS waiting times down, but right now they’re too high, and I’m going to have the ultrascan done privately.” Where it’s not for oneself but for a child and there’s a partner to consult as well, I think people shouldn’t be too censorious.
If Clegg said he wanted changes to schools but he still wouldn’t use them for his own kids after they were implemented, though, that’s just bizarre. Is that correct?
93. SpreadFair, Richard.
94-Oh dear!! blame Turkish beer brewed in Kaz for shpeliing!
Mr Palmer - Is there any truth in the rumour that Gordon Brown is going to ask Sir Victor Blank to get Lloyds TSB in to ‘take over’ the Labour Party to arrest the decline in its fortunes ?
96- Nick, that’s not at all what Clegg said. It’s much worse… basically an admission that he’d never send his own kids to the schools he’s create for everybody else. If I can find the link again, I’ll post it here so you can read for yourself.
Purnell is coming out against Brown!
Purnell: “attempts to silence rebels ‘ridiculous’”
102 - Link?
I’m not too fussed about Clegg’s school choices. He’s an irrelevence.
Good one by Guido:
http://www.order-order.com/2008/09/meltdown-tories-breakthrough-to-52-ftse.html
103. Breaking on sky
96-What were cancer survival rates in 1997 as comapared to 2007/2008?
It still seems slightly counter-intuitive that one in four adults want Gordon to carry on doing his ‘thing’ for another five years.
There are some troubled people in this country.
97 Right - well, isn’t selling Labour on SpreadFair at the current 228 is a no-brainer, given that SportingIndex have just suspended their market at 224-230. (Unless of course they’ve suspended it because they’ve had a mass of Labour buyers!)
101/2 - where are you getting this from?
101. Is Purnell’s seat under thread?
I posted this just before the change of blog again:
Lets hope that if another big American outfits pegs that its Goldman Sachs. Those leeches have bled this country for hundreds of millions conducting useless surveys and studies for Tony Blair and Gordn Brown and of course umpteen GS partners were big Labour party supporters/donors.
Re the 2010 election in Scotland. Tory targets seats to watch seeing how the election is going
1) Dumfries and Galloway (Tory held at Holyrood)
2)Berwick Roxburgh and Selkirk (much was Tory gain from LibDem at Holyrood)
3) Edinburgh South (coming from3rd place)
4) East Renfrewshire (just failed to take the Holyrood seat back by 2% or 900 votes)
5) Edinburgh SW (would be biggest success of night and Tory majority in Pentlands now 4500 or 13%)
6) Stirling (toss up with SNP)
7) Argyll (toss up with SNP)
Aberdeenshire W (if LibDems having a really bad election)
9)Perth (if 1 seat bucks the SNP trend as Galloway did in 2007)
10) Carrick etc (Ayr has a Tory majority of 4000 or 2.5% and South Ayrshire is the main Tory run council in Scotland but if Tories win the Westminster seat then Labour heading for a thrashing)
11) anything else then into unchartered territory
by Easterross September 17th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Of course the Glasgow seat I was talking about was Glasgow South but I repeat if the Tories win either Glasgow North or South then things really are in new territory.
Breaking news James Parnell slightly breaking ranks on the subject of rebels
96- Nick, here is the article:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4743751.ece
Here is the quote:
He will not say whether he would ever send his children to private school. “I am not going to make my children the test-tube laboratory case for the kind of politics I believe in. That would be irresponsible as a father.”
94. No but it would be a big “trophy seat” for the Tories. Cameron has invested a lot of time into regenerating the Tories in Northern cities. While they’re still weak in Manchester, Liverpool and Sheffield, they’ve made progress in places like Sunderland. This is the successor to Chris Mullin’s Sunderland South which has been first to declare at the last few elections, can you imagine the impact of a huge Tory gain in the first declared seat? It’s a real long shot for them but even if they get within 5% of Labour it will be an earlly indication of the scale of the wipeout that will follow!
101.102. What? where?
96. Nick why aren’t you in the bunker with our Great Leader?
On the plus side, you still won’t fit all eight of the Lib Dem parliamentary party in a standard London Taxi, unless Vince Cable’s the driver.
96. No Nick. It is bad. There’s only a finite amount of resources for schools and hospitals. if you go the private route you push up demand, you drain good teachers from the state system and you drive up the cost of GP contracts.
The poll is causing ructions on Labour home
Mike even gets a mention !
http://www.labourhome.org/story/2008/9/17/115921/083
Beauty of Conservative education policy - end of educational apartheid. Equal funding for all - topped up for most disadvantaged and SEN - anybody can run a school on whatever selection basis they like. (OK, I know we haven’t got that far - yet - we will).
Simple, job done, no return to faux disgust/horror etc. Unions parginalised, teachers restored to position of trusted and respected professionals - oh it is just such a complete win win!
106 - Aargh, I can’t get sky!
113 - Yes, it’s the ‘test-tube’ phrase which is so insulting to those who have no choice as to where to send their children. It’s a gaffe of the highest order, or at least it would be if anyone much cared about LibDem policies.
96. Sorry to hear you had a ‘C’ scare. Hope you are alright anyway, that must be really terrifying and difficult time to go through.
In terms of Clegg, without getting repetitive, I just don’t think he cuts the mustard or for that matter was ever likely too.
I have never understood why Sky don’t have a free streaming news service
If Purnell goes, that’s it for Gordon*
*probably
112 Easteross, with you on Goldman Sachs. Going into their Fleet Street offices is the nearest corporate equivalent to walking into Mordor I’ve ever had.
From Labour Home:
If the poll is an accurate reflection of the public mood then we are seeing the biggest deficit either of the two major parties has recorded since The War. This is no surprise since we have the most unpopular PM on record as our party leader.
118 That’s a fallacy. It is quite possible for the supply of health and educational services to increase to match increased demand.
James Purnell: ‘I Share Rebel MPs’ Concerns’
http://tinyurl.com/5zf4zl
At 54 per cent the Tories appear to be roughly where the SDP ended up shortly after their birth: when they presented the British public with a superficially-attractive and plausible ‘easy answer’ to a very difficult set of questions. It will be interesting to see how far the analogy is sustained in the next 18 months. The underlying issue is the question of what effect any change of government would have upon the state of Britain as a whole (and sub-issues such as energy supply/prices, the Housing market, employment and the credit crunch. I would be interested in what the team wouild think about the likely impact upon most of these things in Gordon Brown were to descend into a coma for the next 8 weeks (a) in itself and (b) if the Queen invited David Cameron and George Osbourne to enter Downing Street for a bit of work experience while Mr Brown was resting. It is my own considered view that the answer in both cases is ‘very little’ and would be not much different if one were to substitute ‘8 months’ for ‘8 weeks’ in either scenario. The fundamentals of how these factors will affect large parts of the UK economy are determined largely by the interaction of major international conglommerates, followed by the US Government with the EU lagging some considerable way behind (unless we enter into the Euro) and the British Government some way behind the Bank of England. This hard ‘reality’ may not, however, trickle through to the electorate, in which case we may well elect, in the fullness of time, the government who we deserve.
117-If there are only 8 LD MPs, will Cable be one of them?
Or will his new job be as a cabby? Does he ahve the Green Badge???
http://tinyurl.com/3efrtp
Meanwhile the second headline on the BBC is “Libdems ‘headed for government’”
125. SeanT. ven If they all go Gordo will still be clinging to his seat.
129 - With friends like that…
128. Yes. But the supply of health and education resources is inelastic training teachers and doctors takes a long time.
Brown is simply being blown away like a falling leaf by events this week. Its so obvious.
Electoral calculus on this poll gives 493 Conservative Mps,121 Labour and 8 Lib Dems-so the Lib Dems would fit in a people-carrier!:lol:
119. Poor old Labour. You have to feel just a little biut sorry for them don’t you?
Actually, nah!
So finally someone from the Cabinet decides to act and speak out. Question is, will other Cabinet members follow his lead?
Could Brown be out by the weekend? Next weeks conference could then be a beauty contest for the runners and riders to strut their stuff while the country burns.
129. Purnell’s comments are absurdly spineless and vacillating. He refuses to condemn the rebels who are trying to topple Brown, yet he also says he doesn’t support them, yet he also refuses to rule out supporting a leadership challenge himself, if it happens, but he says that’s hypothetical… and so on and so forth and so what.
Just sums up the whole embarrassing and mortifying charade.
The Labour party is run by a bunch of pathetic, moaning, cowardly, hysterical, selfish, pissabed wetwipes.
Just Do It. Just get on with it. Either Get Rid of Your Stupid Leader, or, please, shut the F up.
136 Indeed it does, but that’s not the same thing. If the private sector didn’t exist, then (a) everyone using private healthcare or education would have to use the public sector, and (b) some professionals would cease working, or cease working in the private sector, in addition to their public sector work.
@141:
Andy Purnell’s seat would fall according to Baxter.
Others getting a thorough Portilloing include:
Kelly, Flint, Straw, Hewitt, Follett, Purnell, Jacqui Smith, Meacher, Clarke, McNulty, Bradshaw, Jowell, Beckett, Milburn, Hodge, Hoon, Hutton and Primarolo.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 47%
Note - Yesterday M47 O46.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx
139. Bu–er poor old labour, as a main contributer to our woes:
U.S. Stocks Drop as Lending Freezes Up Following AIG Takeover
By Elizabeth Stanton and Lynn Thomasson
Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks tumbled as bank lending seized up in the wake of the government’s takeover of American International Group Inc., raising concern that more of the nation’s biggest financial companies will fail.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, the two remaining independent U.S. securities firms after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed and Merrill Lynch & Co. was taken over, plunged the most ever. General Electric Co., the world’s third- biggest company, fell 7.7 percent and U.S. Steel Corp. slid 11 percent. Yields on three-month Treasury bills sank to a 54-year low as investors sought the relative safety of government debt, and a measure of corporate borrowing costs surged to the highest since the crash of 1987.
“It’s ugly,” said Michael Mullaney, a Boston-based money manager for Fiduciary Trust Co., which oversees $10 billion in stocks and bonds. “It’s about the worst I’ve seen it in 25 years. You have to have free-flowing credit to lubricate the system. That’s not happening right now.”
It’s looking like Labour’s best hope might be PR…
So that is a huge Lehmann bounce for Obama
143. If all those seats fell, the air on the morning after would that much cleaner and crisper !
119- Thanks for the link, that was an interesting read. The headline article is reasonable and on target. The readers’ reactions run the gamut from denial to pro-Brown hysterics to anti-Brown hysterics.
146 Prayer Rug?
146 - wouldn’t help them, on these figures.
How’s that hung parliament forecast looking these days, Rod?
146 Purnell Resignation?
Interesting article on the introduction of Sharia Law in the UK…
http://europenews.dk/en/node/14194
As Purnell is a nonentity, who cares?
(I could say that about most of the Cabinet)
Mike
Do you really think it’s wise to bet time and again on the back of embargoed information? You are betraying a confidence by doing so, getting your bets on before you tell anyone else. it is tantamount to trading on inside information, which is not allowed elsewhere.
It shows a lack of trustworthiness, putting greed before morality. You should be ashamed.
Martin - yes, thanks, I’m fine, total false alarm.
G: yes, well, I agree it’s debatable when politicians go private themselves, but I’m not convinced they owe it to the public to tell their families, “Yes, school X is rubbish but you’ve got to go there for the sake of Daddy’s principles.” What if the partner disagrees, as in Jeremy Corbyn’s case - doesn’t
(s)he get a say? But I agree with S&S and Morus that Clegg’s comment is at best peculiar - he seems to say he’d be willing to experiment with schools but stay clear of the outcome.
Peter2: Prostate cancer survival rose from 70.8 in 1998 to 74.4 in 2003 (as survival is defined as 5 years that’s the most recent we’ve got). There are statistical issues about the rate of early detection which may or may not account for some of that - no time to go into them as I’ve got to go out to a public meeting that I’ve organised tonight on policing.
152.
I think it was a medical term which so many Tories would like to apply to New Labour.
154 Purnell is not a nonentity at all. He’s one of the Blairites leading hopes. if he resigns we could be on to an election.
143. James Purnell.
If he goes, it’s over. Same as with Flint.
154. Nonentity? Hardly. Very naive indeed.
What’s the chance of a defection or two? If the NEC continue to bury their heads in the sand then it may be the only way to really rock the boat.
160. When was the last Labour defection to the Tories?
144. That means Obama must have polled very well today. Big shift.
142. It’s probably me being phenomenally stupid but I don’t quite understand your argument.
161 - Well in Parliamentary terms Reg Prentice in 1977
153. A heavily anti-muslim site using the Daily Mail as a source. How reliable and balanced.
Fun poll; who would you vote for Gordon Brown or Neville Chamberlain?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/poll/2008/sep/17/gordonbrown.labour?gusrc=rss&feed=uknews
155-Not often I say so, but thanks for the info!!!
I will miss you when you become merely NP, as opposed to NP MP!!
164. I had a feeling it would be a while ago.
Who can you honestly see defecting to the Tories? Hoey? I think she’s denied it on the record.
Fantastic -
On these numbers, Geoff Hoon, John Hutton, Sion Simon, Jack Straw, Ruth Kelly, Dawn Primarolo, Nick Palmer, Kitty Ussher, Ivan Lewis, Geoffrey Robinson, Malcolm Wicks, Jon Cruddas, Alan Milburn, Margaret Beckett, Caroline Flint, Tessa Jowell, Alistair Darling, Austin Mitchell, Tony McNulty, Ann Cryer, Patricia Hewitt, Charles Clarke, Michael Meacher, Jacqui Smith, John Denham, James Purnell, Barbara Follett, and Beverley Hughes will all lose their seats.
LibDhimms who’ll lose their seats include Julia Goldsworthy, Chris Huhne, Lembit Opik, Vince Cable, and Nick Clegg.
It looks as though after the next GE both the Tapeworm Party and the LibDhimms will have the same leader-replacement problem, i.e. almost all the field will have been eviscerated. Labour’s candidates will consist of Broon, Harman, Miliband, and Burnham. The LibDhimms’ will candidate list will comprise Sarah Teather.
Both are a recipe for another 300-seat Tory majority in 2014.
It’s Nick Palmer I feel sorry for. He’ll have to take a pay cut from £220,000 to £90,000 to resume his previous career. Still, he’ll get a fat payoff and a nice pension.
Will we see a lot of Labour MPs “retiring” before 2010 due to “sickness”? If they do that, the pension they get is calculated as though they’d served till they were 65! Nice work if you can get it!
166. I feel a little sorry for Chamberlain, Britain was in no position to fight in ‘38 and he achieved quite a bit as Chancellor.
144. wow obama finally getting his act together again then, need to see this shift reflected in a few key state polls as well though before getting too happy
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 46% .. Lab 25.6% .. LibDem 16.8% .. Others 11.6%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 415 seats .. Lab 155 .. LibDem 44 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 180.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
151 - It’s looking a lot better than NP’s prediction of a 1997-esque majority. Although to be fair he only got one thing wrong - the direction of the landslide……
Looks a very good day to place bets. Some polls are always outliers.
@ 38 Don’t forget that polls continue to overstate Labour support. So Labour’s 62% then was possibly 52% and Cameron’s 52% now is possibly 62%. There’s no way to know.
Plus the Tories always suffer mid-term unpopularity, whether in government or opposition. This could simply be the Tories starting to recover from their trough of poor poll ratings that were as low as the high 40s.
174 Are you suggesting this is an outlier? Have you never heard of Smithson’s Law?
Nick Clegg is the new Neil Kinnock, celebrating his success before he actually has any. Losing councils and councillors in May and being already a net 1 seat down in council byelections this year according to the LibDem sponsored website, is a great launchpad for the greatest electoral success since their last one
169. Do you really believe that’ll happen? Will you go on record as saying those you’ve named won’t be back in Parliament after the next GE?
Aye, Purnell resigning would up the stakes a bit. He’s not a big beast in the manner of, say, Geoffrey Howe in 1990, but such is the way Gordon has presided over the cabinet (and before him Tony) that t