Four more resignations after the conference?
September 21st, 2008
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News of the World reports more bad news to come for Brown
As the Labour Conference gets underway and the party tries to present a united front, there is more bad news for the PM today, with the News of the World reporting that four more members of the government are preparing to resign.
The paper says that two of the four are mid-ranking ministers and two are ministerial assistants, although their identities have not been hinted at - they are expected to quit while Brown is in New York for the world economic forum.
‘One of the rebels told us: “We have to let Gordon have the conference and say his piece, but I believe nothing will have changed in a week. We need to make another statement and take action before we are wiped out in the Glenrothes by-election in November.” ‘
There has been plenty of media coverage today - the Brown interview with Andrew Marr is here while the Daily Politics with Clarke, Prescott and Polly Toynbee is here, with live streaming from the conference available here.
Finally, Ladbrokes have opened up markets on Brown’s conference speech, with Darling a 2-1 favourite to be the first name mentioned.
UPDATE: Jon Craig at Sky says a Cabinet reshuffle is on the way (hat-tip ChrisD)
Double Carpet
International slot will follow at about 8pm
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The BBC website headline is “I will do better, Brown pledges”
There’s just something so pitiable in that. Like a helplessly misbehaved or backward child begging for one more chance.
I can’t imagine Maggie ever saying “I will do better, I promise, please, please please please let me stay on, I know I’m a terrible prime minister but I’ll try extra hard this time”.
And he was meant to be Granite Gordon, the Iron Man of Politics. It’s very sad. He should just quit, if only to preserve the last shreds of his dignity.
I hope GB hangs on - now with JKR backing him we’re going further and further into the realms of fantasy. Today’s interview was extraordinary - the man needs help!!
Benedict Brogan tells us that the Sun shines on “Premier Kim Il Brown”
“Gordon Brown had a good night’s sleep, which may help explain why he sounded almost conversational in his session with Marr. He’s also evidently relishing the financial crisis. Friends say it plays to his strengths; others might suggest that he’s chipper because for once it’s a disaster he understands. His claim that his plan for saving the global economy was turned down by other countries sounded a tad delusional, though. And he seems to have left the door open to future tax rises by defending the need to borrow more to get through the crisis.”
Fraser Nelson in the Coffee House Blog warns that Brown is in danger of turning into a figure of fun
“Today Brown claimed that every two-year-old will have a free nursery place – by 2018. Coming from a guy who’ll be lucky to be in power by December 18, it’s just a joke. I wonder if John Major is thinking: ‘that’s what I should have done, announced wonderful things to happen by 2007’. It would cost £1 billion and he doesn’t have £1 billion. He doesn’t have the money he’s spending right now. In my News of the World column today (now online) I explain how the danger facing Brown is that he’ll exit not a hated figure but one derided by anyone. Already Alan Johnson has started talking about him as Les Dawson did his mother-in-law.
In his Marr interview there were so many Brownies that it will take a while to compile them all – so bear with me. And to hear him say he was talking to the Chinese leader about the way voters have their say… oh, I give up.”
I have generally been pretty bullish on Brown staying, but I really am thinking his game’s up unless he gives a fantastic conference speech. The rebels are making it clear they will keep at it until Brown goes, and if one cabinet member accepts that uniting under Brown won’t happen and resigns I think people could gather around someone like Jack Straw.
The cabinet are joining in now - Jackie Smith on crime was absolutely priceless - another one in neverland!
‘David Miliband will force independence vote if he becomes PM’
We can reveal that the Foreign Secretary and his supporters have told senior figures in the Scottish party of the plan for a vote on the break-up of the UK. He hopes to persuade potential backers that the high-risk strategy could call the SNP’s bluff. It would give Labour control of the timing and wording of the vote because the referendum bill would be passed in Westminster.
A senior Labour insider said: “David understands the need to be in touch with Scottish politics. “The debate on a referendum has to be settled. It is overshadowing health, education and crime, issues that the SNP are failing on. “We believe the vast majority of people don’t want Scotland to be a separate state.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/09/21/david-miliband-will-force-independence-vote-if-he-becomes-pm-78057-20745768/
Only 4?
That’s pathetic.
Not so much rats leaving a sinking ship, more like dead barnacles dropping off a rotten hulk.
1. SeanT - exactly so.
The whole tenor reminds me of an advert I once saw, which inadvertently summed up the entire pitiful inadequacy being marketed. It read:
“Childrens entertainer.
With magic.”
I think the correct term is “bathos” - an abrupt, unintended transition in style from the exalted to the commonplace, producing a ludicrous effect.
Bathetic Brown.
8. The greatest elephant in the world, except himself.
Frances at Post 329 on the previous thread:
“I haven’t managed to read through the entire thread, so I don’t know if someone else has mentioned this, but my number one question about the ICM Glenrothes poll would be the issue of weighting by past vote, and whether respondents were asked how they voted at the 2007 Holyrood election as well as 2005. The obvious suspicion about why ICM got it so wrong in Glasgow East is that switchers to the SNP in 2007 were incorrectly reporting that they had voted SNP in 2005, leading to a significant overestimate of Labour’s strength in the constituency. When that concern was raised the response seemed to be that there was no problem, as it was made clear to people that it was ‘the general election in 2005′ that was being asked about. In my view, that’s nowhere near good enough - many people would simply think back to the ‘last big election’ without being able to distinguish the year, which would lead them to automatically recall their 2007 vote.
The only way that problem can be solved is for both 2005 and 2007 votes to be requested - perhaps that was done in this case, but I rather suspect it wasn’t.”
Good point. I think it deserves a response.
7
Its the relentless drip drip drip of the lifeblood of New Labour oozing out.. eventually it will become comatose. Noone seems to want to call 999.
“An analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that Government borrowing will be £63 billion this year and £90 billion in 2009-10 – the equivalent of £1,500 for every person in Britain next year.” Perhaps Alistair will quit rather than have to announce this to the House?
By the way, has anyone yet received their promised tax refund of sixty quid this month? No smell of any tax code changes or refunds here, where several occupational pensioners are among the million or so who will still be worse off.
Sam Coates has an interesting post on his Red Box blog.
Brown urged: continue with the shallow salesman line
“At a Unite fringe meeting with the debonair Charlie Whelan, pollster Deborah Mattinson has just made public the guts of the strategy presentation she gave to Cabinet last week. Bullish, as you’d expect, she says there’s everything still to fight for. But listening to this rosy view, it’s perhaps not surprise there was a mini Cabinet revolt at the findings.
The highlights:
*** To get people to vote, the election has to feel like a proper fight, like it did in 1992. Translation: Ed Balls is right to hunt dividing lines
*** David Cameron has not sealed the deal with voters. Translation: We haven’t yet lost the next election.
*** 59 per cent of people say threat people want someone with experience of the economy. Translation: Gordon’s still the man
*** David Cameron is seen as likable but untrusted, shallow and inexperienced. 55 per cent say he’s a lightweight. At a focus group last week, someone said DC seems “like he was invented by a focus group”. Translation: Continue with the ’shallow salesman’ line
** David Cameron is out of step with the rest of the Tory party, which has not yet modernised. DM suggested Labour needed to “nail” this point. Translation: Suggest the Tories are still the nasty party
** 60 per cent of lapsed Labour voters, their key target group for the next election, are women. Translation: Lets launch some family friendly policies.
At the start of proceedings, Whelan said that Mattinson knew more about what the public thought of Brown than anyone else but wouldn’t be going into that. No room for tolerating bad news at conference, then.”
Five frogs, sitting on a log, four decide to jump off. How many frogs are now sitting on the log?
The answer, of course, is five. Four have only decided to jump off.
The same is true of these ministers. I have no reason to doubt that the ministers made these comments, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
If you want to inform the world of a celebrity breast enh*ncement then fine but the idea that 4 Ministers have given this information pre conference to the NoW is simply silly.
Any evidence that Gordon sent best wishes to the British Davis Cup team? Austria have won 3-2.
15.Roger, remember Nick Robinson breathlessly telling the nation on the BBC news that one Cabinet Minister had told him that Gordon Brown would be “an effing disaster”.
You are either very naive when it comes to briefing the political lobby off the record, or you have not bothered to follow politics too closely in the last 10 years. Anonymous briefing has been the life blood of the New Labour spin machine both in No10 and No11 Downing street, and the rebels who ousted IDS certainly found it the most effective way of undermining him too.
‘Pressure for Scotland to ban Trident
- Former Lord Advocate calls on Calman Commission to examine devolved power over nuclear weapons’
They have been backed by one of the country’s most senior legal figures, Lord Murray, who argues that the use of such weapons is illegal. Possessing them is “probably” also against international law, says the former Lord Advocate.
“This should be incorporated into Scotland’s constitutional arrangements,” he told the Sunday Herald. “It should be reflected by the Calman Commission.”
“Ideally Unison would like control over weapons of mass destruction to be devolved, but we do recognise that it will be difficult to separate this from the overall control of defence,” said the union’s Scottish organiser, Dave Watson.
In its submission, the Church of Scotland pointed out that Scottish public opinion on nuclear weapons was “significantly different” from that of the UK as a whole.
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2450042.0.pressure_for_scotland_to_ban_trident.php
15 Just suggests the NoW journos have the largest expense accounts….and run up the biggest bar tabs.
Its all about trying to trip Brown and grind him down. Preventing any chance of Gordon getting any really movement out of the hole is critical to their aim.
Those who have decided enough is enough have see Glenrothes lost.
Is there a market on the length of the ovation for the dear leader wtih cheers, applause, all stand, tulmultous spontaneous cheering and feet stamping. In the circumstances who is going to be the first to sit down?
How many Lab marginals are there in Yorkshire around Halifax and Leeds? Halifax still has a large HQ type building, but who are the main players in the financial service sector in Leeds?
20. Why yes, there is.
Standing ovation
Under 8 mins 1/4
8 mins or over 5/2
In the News of the World article Alan Sugar is also spouting about rats deserting ships. I often think it is remarkable how many Viglen(Sugar’s PC company) PC’s are in schools. I once went to viglen’s assembly line and it was like being in a third world sweatshop. The way the assembly line staff were treated was truly dreadful and for some reason they thought this was a selling point, you could feel the fear amongst all levels of his organisation. Beyond all the cheeky loveable tough guy facade of Sugar I think just lies a not particularily enlightened or good businessman but instead a political schmoozer who is now panicking that he might lose his favoured status regarding government contracts.
8 minutes of an ovation? What with, guns at their backs?
And when does that get timed too? the last clap?
22. It’s quite amazing how one man has made so much money out of inferior and poor selling products.
20. Numerous marginals: Leeds North East, Pudsey, Bradford West, Elmet and Rothwell, Batley and Spen, Halifax, Calder Valley, Colne Valley…
If Millibland decides as PM to push for a referendum on Independence in Scotland then Alex Salmond will have achieved his life ambition.
Most Scots think the SNP is doing a good job on health and education and courtesy of the Tories last month Kenny MacAskill announced Scotland now has its highest police numbers ever, even in spite of the huge numbers retiring etc. With a policy committment to increase new police numbers by 1000 by 2011 as part of the 2007 deal with the Scots Tories, to attack Salmond on those issues would be a major own goal.
Every day we are being reminded of some new drug which is available in Scotland but not in England and the constant drip drip of such comments are permeating into the psyche of the Scottish people and telling them healthcare in Scotland is much better than in England, whether in fact it is or not. However I have to say that when my cousins came up from Sussex to visit my grandmother in our local cottage hospital a) they couldn’t believe how clean everything is b) how much attention is paid to handwashing and infection control and c) how dedicated the nursing staff appear to be. I can confirm that they are.
22,23 Sugar’s senior management team, it has been said elsewhere, is virtually unchanged in decades. If so, then Sugar must be doing something right.
20. Dewsbury, Wakefield and Keighley too. There is an awful lot for Labour to lose in West Yorkshire.
23 Like the e-mailer or his Amstrad micros. He famously believed there was no value in software and said microsft would amount to nothing. His judgement is about as good as his friend Gordon Brown.
Watching Labour delegates speak so far has been far more interesting than the main ministerial speakers. The grassroots members do seem to want to unite. They talk fondly of ‘their Labour Governemnt.’ Are clearly terrified at the thought of ‘The dark days of the tories’ coming back as they see it. This is the first conference since 97 where a Tory Govenrment is a reailstic propspect, and you can see the fear in the delegates eyes. They shudder at the though at their incumbancy crumbling, are almost disbeliving at the idea the public may elect a Tory Governemnt again.
Younger delegates are full of passion for ‘Their Labour Governenment.’ probably well aware that by defending the incumbants they are in the minority amongst their friends of similar age. I know how that feels when I was supporting the Tories in the final years leading up to 97, where all of my school friends were desperate for a Labour government. They are baffled why their piers are not afraid of a Tory Government, the same way I was baffled how they were not afraid of a Labour one a decade ago.
So in some ways I can identify with these people and feel a touch sorry for their position, and admire their passion for their cause as I had similar passion for mine, but in some ways I am also enjoying it, as I know full well many of these same people were enjoying the misery of people like me when the Major Governemnt collapsed to a big defeat.
All of those things make this week one facinating watch, not for Gordon’s big speech, but for the delegates making their case desperately hoping something will turn around for ‘Their Labour Government’, but they deep down know that it probably won’t, and they will soon face ‘The dark days of the Tories’ (In their words, certianly not mine of course) once again.
I actually think that Gordon Rusty Brown is, probably, a nice, decent geezer. [Not his fault he's a Scotsman!]
As well I actually enjoy the contribution - however limited - that Nick Palmer makes on this site. [Even if he has an over-inflated opinion of his abilities - £150K p.a. for a web-designer!]
I know that said NP(MP) has a false socialist loyalty to his Marxist friendsl, and so offers nothing more than bland tit-bits. [Has Harriet Harman banned that expression yet?] But I do believe their is some humanity in that rattle of a head that is Nick’s skull.
Therefore, and humbly, could I make a request to the member of Broxstowe? Please tell Gordoom - quietly, and privately - that he is not up to the job.
Many thanks Nick!
P.S. Sick of Sky showing Lord Adare. Where is Red Adair when a crisis needs a quick solution. [Oh, he is dead. Just like Labour!
]
26 I am sure he treats the people at the top very well, all I can say is that when I visited the assembly line I felt really sorry for the people who worked there.
28: ‘His judgement is about as good as his friend Gordon Brown.’
Be careful, you’ll awaken the site’s ‘don’t be horrid to the Labour donors’ police who were out in force yesterday when people questioned the literally merits of J K Rowling.
Does anyone know if any MPs are seriously ill, particularly Labour ones or are there are more rumours of a Labour defection? Given Gordon Brown’s luck, I am expecting either aLabour MP to die or one to announce his/her defection to the Tories just before Gordon stands up to make his speech and start relaunch 101.
‘FactCheck: do we really owe a debt of gratitude to Gordon Brown?’
The prime minister claims to have cut the national debt. Is he right? FactCheck looks at the balance sheet…
The verdict
Brown massages the figures slightly - but he’s broadly correct, so long as the nationalisation of Northern Rock, intended as a temporary measure, isn’t included in the figures.
http://www.channel4.com/news/articles/politics/domestic_politics/factcheck+do+we+really+owe+a+debt+of+gratitude+to+gordon+brown/2467262
29. The use of the word comrade amuses me.
30. Doesn’t surprise me. When he was at Spurs, apparently a lower league club (may have been Barnet) were borrowing unused equipment at Spurs and it seems he put a stop to that for no good reason. His choices for his Apprentice have been open to question as well.
SkyNews: the doctor who accused a lawyer of killing her first two children (and who was then let-off on appeal, even though her third tot survived whilst she was incarcerated), and was subsequently struck-off the register, has been reinstated.
New Labour are toast. Their Murder-of-Crows who destroyed Her Majesty’s Realm will soon be held to account!
6. The very first thing that should be on Millys mind, if he becomes PM, is calling a general election. Seriously. A Scottish poll can come later, but the primary thing to do is to let everyone have a say on who is actually governing us.
A Scottish Independence poll, imposed by Westminster, would be a catastrophe! The SNP would just say, “look they don’t want us, so let’s go!”.
#38, why?
Should an aggrieved minority dictate the behaviour of the majority?
The Scots have to put-up or shut-up. They know the English view…!
37, well, if Milipede actually became PM, held and lost a Scottish referendum poll, I think we could surmise it would create a sub-optimal run up to a General Election.
28 — Amstrad computers were (a) very good and (b) excellent value, and gave millions of people their start in computing. I doubt, however, that Sugar has ever done a shift as foreman on the Viglen production line.
35: ‘the doctor who accused a lawyer of killing her first two children … has been reinstated’
Good. He was the victim of a feminist witch hunt.
41:
Or warlock hunt, perhaps.
21 Shadsy, Whats the odds on under a minute
26 - if that happened in the public sector it would be pilloried as “bureaucratic”.
New Research 2000/Quad-City Times poll for Iowa :
McCain 39% .. Obama 53%
http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2008/09/21/news/local/doc48d5d7d0b32a5478622581.txt?sPos=2
9. But “their Labour government” illegally invaded Iraq, killed half a million people, betrayed the nation over Europe, destroyed the economy through debt, lied catastrophically on immigration, wasted taxes by the trillion, actually reduced social mobility, sent the education system into reverse, and nearly broke the United Kingdom itself with a selfish, disgraceful and cackhanded Devolution “Settlement”.
Everyone now admits this, even Labour prime ministers - “I will try and do better” says Brown. Ahem.
So what makes all these weirdoes so keen to re-elect Labour? Their Labour government has been eleven years of self-evident disaster. Their government has done absolutely nothing positive apart from build a couple of Sure Start centres, and offer free loft insulation. Maybe. Everything else is calamity and despair.
Do they honestly think the Tories could be… worse? Apart from deliberately reintroducing smallpox, I find it hard to see how the Tories could actually be worse. Does anyone?
Party activists are a strange bunch.
46. The amount of people dependent on the current government for their jobs is probably pretty staggering.
I had an Amstrad VCR in the 80’s. Complete load of rubbish!
39. It may well help the Tories is Milliband called an independence poll before a general election and lost it. Never the less, some things are more important even than that. Milliband to my mind, just wouldn’t have the authority to call an independence poll. He would be ruling on Blairs mandate. When people voted for Blairs New Labour they didn’t sign up for Brown and they certainly didn’t sign up for Milliband. He would be an illegitimate Prime Minister with no mandate to do something serious like call a referendum in Scotland. It would be completely outrageous.
Another political party is also having its annual national conference:
‘Greens put strings on independence’
The party’s present policy is to be in favour of “an independent, self-governing Scotland.”
But this support was qualified at their annual conference in Glasgow where activists voted 60-18 in favour of a more conditional approach and a multi-option referendum.
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5ju6KqEbuPilQVwZmm6QtvG9zsxyQ
32 Easterross, if someone is defecting I think they would be encouraged to wait until the Conservative conference. This would give Cameron a boost and also show that people were positive about the Tories rather than just negative about Brown.
48 - That may be people’s perception but the reality will be different. What were Mori’s stats? 12% in the public sector?
51 There was a post to that effect on Guido earlier today. Surely better to demonstrate that after hearing Gordon’s speech “I could no longer continue to support this shambles of a Govt. etc etc etc” and emphasise that in contrast, the Tories now have the answers to today’s problems. It’s what you’d do.
It was also suggetsed that Ben Bradshaw would not be the only defection.
53, Bradshaw? If he tried defecting to my party I’d tell the slimy bugger to sling his hook.
54 Bradshaw would be the Universe’s political karma getting back in balance, after Labour took Quentin Davies from the Tories. Sort of Doesn’t Matter and Anti-doesn’t Matter cancelling each other out.
Talking about defections, do you think we will have another barn-storming conference speech from Comrade Quentin Davies like last year?
I see from Martin Kettle’s column that Labour’s reversion to the anti-capitalist, anti-individualist far-left faction of old is almost complete:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/21/labourconference.economy
These are indeed dark days for the Labour Party.
I was chatting to someone here who said he used to be an active poster here, then a regular lurker, and now has just stopped bothering. He said that he enjoyed Sean Fear, David Herdson and others who posted interesting pieces from a Tory viewpoint, but every thread was now completely clogged up with yah-boo Tories saying “Labour is toast, Brown is a ****” again and again - as though repetition made it more convincing. He wondered if others are drifting away for the same reason. I said I’d pass it on.
54. Quite - the last thing the Tories want is to attract pond life of that kind.
6 “Calling the SNP’s bluff?” I wonder if the same tactic would work on other issues with perhaps the BNP?
Still either way we can put an end to the tail wagging the dog.
If Scotland becomes independent, I look forward to the spectacle. Scots queueing up at border control to take advantage of British air, sea and tunnel links.
Scotch cant direct chippie hatred against Conservatives. After Labour is gone, they will then turn against the SNP.
When they drive out the SNP they will turn against the Catholics, the lowlanders, the East coasters, the immigrants…(ad infinitum…)
Actually, I quite like British scots. They are like just any other British person on the British Island. The most racist anti-English Scotch I have met, are all second generation Irish.
58. I personally get very bored with crybaby posts by Labour spin merchants claiming this site is going downhill. But I suppose they have to post their quota somehow.
58 - To be fair, most forums seems to be very vitrolic against Brown and this Government (I was just looking at the many responses to Nick Robinson’s blog on the New Brown as witnessed on Andrew Marr’s show this morning - the attacks against Brown and this Government were much worse than anything posted on here).
58. Is this person’s first name Gordon, Nick?
58. They don’t like it up ‘em.
58, in fairness, the polls have given staggering Conservative leads/Labour deficits for months and Brown is less popular than Neville Chamberlain in 1940. If the site had an equal number of active pro-Labour and pro-Tory contributors it would be utterly out of step with recent electoral and polling results.
Not a longtime member, but others here have remarked that the trend was reversed during Brown’s first few months.
58 So Nick - what’s the score on this Ben Bradshaw plus A N Other defection story? Can you confirm to all here that it is complete b*ll*cks?
64 - GeoffH aka L/Cpl Jack Jones from Dad’s Army
53 How many others could there be? Bradshaw won my respect after his defeat of that homophobe in 1997. Anyhow, if he does join the Tories it will be interesting to hear his reasons. I think many on the Left are genuinely enthused with the ’social agenda’, which at least offers something other than the failed panacea of just pouring more money on a problem.
58 Lets face it Nick, Conservatives have had to put up with yah-boo lefties. There are the smug types, but also those who shout conservatives down, those filled with hatred - who think it is acceptable to put a brick through a window of a home with a Conservative poster.
58. Why do you think there aren’t significant numbers of people willing to post that Gordon isn’t a ****?
25.”Most Scots think the SNP is doing a good job on health and education ”
Not this Scot, I think the complacency about the state of our hospitals and education system is beyond parody to be honest. Neither are performing well, but whether its Labour or the SNP in charge the political media up here is the biggest underachiever.
I have kids going through the system, and because of personal family circumstances have spent a lot of time within the walls of the NHS.
As a former nurse I was nearly in tears at one point about the poor performance of one department. I won’t bore you with the details, but something needs to be done to address the problems and Nicola Sturgeon&Co better get their act together quickly.
Too much attention to spin and realising the nationalist dream of a referendum means stupid nationalistic ad campaigns combined with a rather distasteful attempt to ramp up anger North and South of the Border leads to a neglect of the detailed and competent running of the every day services in Scotland.
There is also an arrogance and complacency creeping in that is reminiscent of the New Labour honeymoon years. So stop the useless headline grabbing initiatives like banning alcohol for under 21’s because they are a cheap way to stay in the news and look fresh and get on sorting out the problems in health and education for a start.
I don’t know where people are getting this Ben Bradshaw story from, but he wouldn’t want to endure the mass of mud slung at him by the not at all malicious Brownies. Anyway, this from yesterday’s Western Morning News:
“SOUTH West Minister Ben Bradshaw today insists voters are “wrong to write off Gordon Brown” as the Labour Party prepares for its toughest conference for 15 years.
Writing exclusively in today’s WMN, Mr Bradshaw hits out at critics of the Prime Minister – including Labour rebels – for their “sustained and remorseless” attacks which have been “unprecedented in modern political times”.
The health minister and Exeter MP claims Mr Brown’s woes – including ministerial resignations and the latest poll putting Labour 28 points adrift of the Conservatives – are not a mirror of the “factional fighting” which led to the downfall of John Major in the mid-1990s.”
http://www.thisiswesternmorningnews.co.uk/news/DON-T-GORDON/article-341657-detail/article.html
58. Are you in Manchester Nick?
Hotline poll today 45-44 Obama, same as yesterday, yet another sign of stabilisation.
Does someone knows a link to see the Labour conference live, if I don’t live in the UK? Because the BBC says that “Sorry, this media is not available in your territory”….
61 Actually I quite admire the fight that lefties have.
They ignore counter arguments, they never accept they are wrong.
They are Ruthless in Power and plead Mercy when losing.
They just dont care.
58 The site is fairly representative of the public feeling - your leader is very widely loathed and reviled.
There are of course posters from the left who come on merely to troll.
I’d look around a few other political sites - aside from Labour Home, most of them have the same sort of comments - Brown is unpopular, inneffective and frankly weird and we (the majority) want change.
I meant: Does someone know
58 I thought the daily posts figures are through the roof as well as the traffic being enormous. Can Mike tell us what the figures are and what they were perhaps two years ago?
Perhaps your friend should stop worrying about people speaking the truth and try and do something to change it to a more palatable truth.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 49%
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
54.”53, Bradshaw? If he tried defecting to my party I’d tell the slimy bugger to sling his hook.2
When that was first mentioned in Guido’s threads last week, I suggested that could be Labour’s secret weapon to undermine David Cameron. Come on Labour MP’s, a couple of you need to do your duty for the greater good of the party.
58 Nick Palmer, you mised out “complete and utter”, amply demonstated by his Marr interview today. By the way Nick, How long before the unborn get child care vouchers?. Brown’s vision is a myth, There isnt one. He only knows how to spend other peoples nmoney, and the electorate dont like or want it.
72: ‘I don’t know where people are getting this Ben Bradshaw story from’
I think someone is persistently posting it on Guido’s blog, so it must be true.
83, really?!
Quickly, someone post on Guido’s blog that I’m to be made president of the Swedish Nymphomaniacs’ Association!
58.”I was chatting to someone here who said he used to be an active poster here, then a regular lurker, and now has just stopped bothering. He said that he enjoyed Sean Fear, David Herdson and others who posted interesting pieces from a Tory viewpoint, but every thread was now completely clogged up with yah-boo Tories saying “Labour is toast, Brown is a ****” again and again - as though repetition made it more convincing. He wondered if others are drifting away for the same reason. I said I’d pass it on.”
Nick, did this soul also mention that the dire position of the Labour party and the surge in Conservative support in the polls might be making them less motivated to bother with politics.
I ask, because blaming the surge in Conservative posters with the usual added insults cannot be to blame for the drop in Labour voters saying that they will not even bother turning out to vote!
80 - People possibly thinking the economy is sorted?
Unfortunately for us all, the sticking plaster is just that. Krugman partly lays the blame with Greenspan but suggests that, when the smugness dies down over Paulson’s supposed conversion to socialism, there is a year or two of trouble at least.
“simply by buying assets off these institutions. This will only work if the prices Treasury pays are much higher than current market prices; that, in turn, can only be true either if this is mainly a liquidity problem — which seems doubtful — or if Treasury is going to be paying a huge premium, in effect throwing taxpayers’ money at the financial world.”
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/20/no-deal/
Basically taxpayers are screwed (c.f. Northern Rock), and this is supposed to help the Republicans how?
Hello all.
Currently sitting in a hot packed fringe meeting. Awaiting David Milliband. Saw him this lunchtime talking about foreign policy. He was very good (I am a tough critic - honest). Tonight it’s about connecting with the voters. Huge crowd. DM clearly has already connected with many members.
85.That should have been increase, not drop.
87 Not difficult given the current leader…
Let the Labour losers leave.
‘Labour set for by-election humiliation and ‘bloodbath’ in Scotland’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/labour/3042620/Labour-set-for-by-election-humiliation-and-bloodbath-in-Scotland.html
O/T. I’ve just backed Villa to win the Premiership at 150/1. Each way bet with Paddy Power. Each Way Odds 1/3 places 1,2.
65 I dob’t know about Chamberlain but Brown and the government are still a little more popular than Major and his government were in 1994/1995 .
58 - I sort of agree, Nick.
There is no doubt that traffic and posting is through the roof - we’ve seen days with 15-1600 comments this week, and the number of hits is growing steadily.
That said, the site has been massively popular for a while. What has marked it out, in my view, is that the *quality* of the comment is superior to anywhere else. I don’t deny that Brown is hated, or that the site’s ‘voice’ tends to follow public opinion, but there are days where every thread does seem to have the sort of mindless drivel that belongs on the excellent site of Mr Fawkes or the BBC’s HYS.
I don’t mind robust argument, I don’t mind passion leading to the odd expletive, but when 100 posts a day say nothing but ‘I f***ing hate Gordon Brown/Labour/JK Rowling’ it bores me to tears.
I don’t know if Mike would want to intervene - I think light-touch moderation has tended to be very successful - but I think all of us who comment need to stop for a second before pressing ‘Submit Comment’ and ask themselves whether their post says anything that people will want to read - is it persuasive, funny, educative, illustrative, betting-related, newsworthy, or insightful?. A little self-restraint wouldn’t go amiss at times.
94 Hear hear. Speak if it improves the silence is a great rule of thumb.
No Dave Milliband here yet. Still more punters coming in.
Jon Craig over at Boulton&Co is reporting that we should Get Ready For A Reshuffle
“I am reliably informed that Gordon Brown is considering a Government reshuffle on Thursday or Friday of next week, after the Conservative Party Conference ends and before MPs return to Westminster on October 6.
The aim, I’m told, is that those ministers on the move should be in their new job for the start of the new term.
Government insiders are predicting that Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, may leave the Government and say that John Hutton, currently Business Secretary, is the favourite to replace him.
Ministers of State tipped for promotion to the Cabinet include the Home Office pair of Liam Byrne and Tony McNulty.
The fate of Ivan Lewis, the junior health minister who criticised the PM and then found himself exposed for sending inappropriate text messages to a young female civil servant is, I’m told, in the hands of his boss, Health Secretary Alan Johnson. “If Alan fights to save him, he may survive,” I’m told.
A reshuffle will be the next step in Gordon Brown’s attempt to fight back against those Labour MPs who are determined to oust him.
Mr Brown’s senior lieutenants claim there are not many more MPs demanding a leadership contest besides those we know about already. “They haven’t got the numbers to force a contest,” said a Brown loyalist.
But Jack Straw told me in a live Sky News interview that Labour MPs DID approach him in July and urged him to tell Gordon Brown the game was up. He refused and sent them away, he said.
At Geoffrey Robinson’s New Statesman party in the gothic splendour of the Great Hall of Manchester Town Hall, I asked Geoff Hoon about claims by Labour MPs that he wants to succeed Peter Mandelson as Britain’s EU Commissioner in Brussels.
He made no attempt to deny it. But I’m told authoritatively that even if that does happen, the appointment doesn’t need to be made until late next year.
I’m also told that it’s just possible that Mandelson may stay on in Brussels, despite his earlier claims that he didn’t want to. His clash with President Sarkozy over free trade has impressed his old foe Gordon Brown, I’m told.
So will Mr Brown be toppled? A senior trade unionist I spoke to in the sunshine outside the conference hall said after watching the PM in a TV interview: “I’m afraid the truth is that Gordon isn’t up to the job. But there isn’t the appetite in the party for a bruising leadership contest which could split the party apart.”"
The fact that is being reliable briefed to journalists shows just how dire Gordon Brown’s position is now. It is I suspect also a warning/attempt to keep everyone in line and on message through out the Labour Conference and during the Conservative one.
68-It is a sobering fact that because of Labour’s antidemocratic laws, Prof Adrian Rogers would be thrown into jail by the thought police nazis if he ran a campiagn today like he did in 1997.
96. Hoon for Brussels!! A by election in Ashfield might be fun.
David Milliband and Michael Portillo. Somehow the juxtaposition of those names reminds me of the adage “History always repeats itself; the firat time as tragedy, the second time as farse.”
96-So relaunch number 1xx6?
Brown saying he needs to improve but is unspecific as to how.
At what stage did IDS or Ming say same. I am sure they did.
60. Heat, kitchen.
99-I hope that was a non-delibearte misspelling!!! Indeed not only is Millepede farcical, but even fars(e)ical!!
There cramming them in here. DM due to arrive at 18:30. Hope for his sake he says something. We have a hot hungry mob.
BTW Ben page of Ipsos/Mori is kicking us off with a presentation on “what the public want”
These are dark, dark days for Labour supporters and I can understand the frustration at the commanding lead the Conservatives have in the country. This lead is representing itself on sites like this one and others, with apparently huge numbers of Tory posters. Infact, the majority of these posters are floating voters like me, that are siding with the Tories right now but don’t actually beling to the party. If you look back at threads from 2005 (the general election thread, for instance) you’ll see there were huge numbers of Labour posters back then and Conservatives were very much in the minority, so the change has clearly happened as the country has changed.
Anway, Cameron will soon be in office and the left will be able to breath a sigh of relief, because at least initially he won’t be running a popular government, which means from opposition Labour can begin the process of renewing itself and generating more support.
98.
Bye bye Des!! Don’t write.
The electors of Kilmarnock & Loudoun would’ve enjoyed doing the job, but if Gordon wants to boot his bahoochie sooner then that is fine by us.
103. I’m sure they did. As soon as a politican starts pleading to be given another chance or to try harder then they’re finished.
106. Sounds like he’s on manoeuvres!!
106 “Ben page of Ipsos/Mori is kicking us off with a presentation on “what the public want””
Well I could give that presentation:
“Not you lot”
104 - I think the phrase ‘more heat than light’ sums up what Nick’s correspondent feels is a problem.
I’d separate out partisan preference - I love that pretty much every party has supproters on here, and that the balance fluctuates. That isn’t a problem at all. I wouldn’t have a particular problem if 80% of the posters were from (eg) the Conservative Party. I was just trying to make a point about quality of comments. Perhaps predictably, given growth, there is more random shouting than I remember being when I first visited.
82 Jack W posted purely as a betting service and third hand info with no verification, but commenters on the 538 site are saying they saw Scott Rasmussen on Fox preview some good news for McCain; that he leads in a state he has not led in, that Obama’s spending in FL is not getting him adequate returns. Also, they speculate that since today’s Gallup tracker includes Thursday night’s big polling numbers for Obama that yesterday’s number was close to evens. True or not I have no idea.
I do think that the game changing Palin/Wall Street Crash events cancelled each other out and it all comes down to the debates. If McCain or Palin do well in them they will likely win and if not they won’t. All the polling and speeches and rallies and it may boil down to that.
106: “A general election”
Here are the comments from 538
“Some Rasmussen Reports guy just leaked a couple of hints for tomorrow’s Rasmussen battleground polling update:
“McCain takes a lead in a state for the first time since the general election” - Since McCain has shown leads in CO, FL, VA, and OH, that means he must be ahead tomorrow in Pennsylvania.
“Obama’s spending in Florida does not seem to be working in his favor” - McCain extends lead in Florida?
“McCain still has to be happy about Ohio despite the events of last week” - McCain still up at least 3 in Ohio?”
Mbeki goes, Hooray.
98. “The aim, I’m told, is that those ministers on the move should be in their new job for the start of the new term.”
The timing suggests that it’s more likely an attempt to take the shine off Cammo’s speech or move the headlines away from the Tory conference. Very Brownian indeed.
115. So is Olmert;
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1221976325874&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Come on Brown dont let the side down.
116. Lol, and by ‘Brownian’ you mean ‘normal move by a politician’
re 110 I think that that is very unfair. MORI recognised that something was wrong, looked at their methodology, and then made big changes. That says a lot.
I’m almost coming to a view that MORI’s refusal to adopt past vote weighting but their recognition that too many public sector workers were getting into polling samples is a better approach to sample bias.
115 Abour Mbeki, the link:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/7627957.stm
An aids denyer bites the dust.
119. Pretty sure Mark was talking about Labour not MORI!
58. Your colleagues on the button Nick. This site has always been overwhelmingly Tory with a lot of bright and witty posters. It still has some bright and witty posters but they’re by no means in a majority anymore.
Iain Dale has an interesting story on Alan Sugar. The first line is hilarious.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/09/alan-sugar-that-was-then-and-this-is.html
Alan Sugar: That Was Then And This Is Now
Iain Dale 6:26 PM
Reading Alan Sugar’s remarks (made by videolink) opening the Labour Conference yesterday, I was reminded of the old ABC song THAT WAS THEN BUT THIS IS NOW. It contained a paen of praise to the Prime Minister. If you have the stomach for it, you can read it HERE.
One thing we can all agree on that Gordon was the best Chancellor of the Exchequer this country saw for many years. Who better to be in place when we have an economic problem than him? And dare I say to those that are not happy: Get Out. Have the balls to get out. And those of you who are left: Get behind the Prime Minister in the times ahead of us.
Is this the same Alan Sugar who wrote a letter to the Financial Times on 19 March 1992?
Sir, I have noted with disgust the comments of a certain Mr Gordon Brown who has accused me of doing well out of the recession after reading the letter published in The Times from 40 top industrialists.
I do not know who Mr Gordon Brown is. Excuse my ignorance, but I don’t. Whoever he is (shadow trade and industry secretary), he has not done his homework properly. The man doesn’t know what he’s talking about. How he has the audacity to say that Amstrad, or Alan Sugar, has flourished in recession is a complete mystery to me.
The reason Labour flourished many years ago was the ‘them and us’ situation that prevailed in England. There were the rich and there were the poor. At that stage maybe I would have sympathised with the need for a Labour government. But that’s all been changed now. Look around. Yes, there are the very poor and more should be done for them. But almost everybody’s got a microwave oven, a car and a colour television - maybe more than one colour television in their homes. Let’s be honest with each other. ‘Them and us’ doesn’t exist any more, as I have demonstrated.
I have been able to come from the working class, achieve what I set out to achieve and not be suppressed by anybody. Likewise, in the stock market today there are bright young men with a Cockney accent doing deals and buying and selling shares. It’s not just the Heskett-Smythes mob that are doing it. Anybody can do it.
The government has made mistakes; nobody’s perfect. To be sure, somebody took his eye off the ball. Now the belt has been tightened and there have been casualties. But it is not just the poor unemployed factory worker from the Midlands who is being thrown out of work. So are the merchant bankers, the stockbrokers and the estate agents.
Labour offers no sort of route out of recession. It’s out of date and - as Brown’s remark shows - it hasn’t done its homework.
Well that told him! What a difference 16 years (and a Knighthood) makes.
60 Nick, never a truer word spoken.
Even Seant who used to be quite funny has now started repeating him self like some drunken bore at a Police Station Front desk, telling counter staff his mate,who was arrested was not drunk and incapable.
119 Calm down Mike - the “not you lot” refers to his audience - ie Labour, not MORI!
114 test. A single Rasmussen poll lead in a previous blue state in the context of present Rasmussen polling would be not be ground breaking. The Florida comment is odd in context of current polling and Ohio is tight as a tick.
All to play for, but any reasonable analysis would contend that the past weeks events have handed Obama a small but useful lead in the popular vote and more significant edge in the electoral college.
As an as(n)ide Scott R is appearing on Fox News whose devotion to Obama is wll known !!
re 122. The site was not always overwhelmingly Tory. In the early period the only regular Tory contributor was Sean Fear and it was only towards the end of the Tory leadership election in late 2005 that things started to change.
The most vocal tend to be those from the party with most to be vocal about. For a brief stint in mid 2004 that was the Lib Dems.
Just go and look at the threads from exactly a year ago when Gordon was sweeping all before him and you will get a totally different feel. I came under fierce attack when I pointed to weaknesses in Labour’s polling position.
120 - The guy who is coming in, isn’t any better.
73. SNP are not perfect , but you are in the minority, more people think they are a vast improvement than not. They are at least trying to implement some policies that will help Scotland within the constraints of being a minority government with the key powers also held at Westminster. They aredoing pretty well so far.
114-Think we are back to the pre-convention stage. Am sure UPMYASS state wide aggregation would agree but hit the vino and pivo today so it’ll have to wait.
If McCain is up for the first time in a state it’ll probably be either Michigan or Pennsylvania. Both are huge, and, if true, game changing. CO, NM, IA are I 9+5+7=21. MI is 17, PA is 21. And McCain has a +16 cushion on 2004.
SO (big so!!), if McCain loses IA (seems a given), CO and NM (less so), but wins MI then it is 286-7-9-5+17=282. If PA (less likely I admit) then 286. VA is 13 but I really think if BHO wins VA it will not be the deciding state. Also, McCain seems to be holding up well to the BHO surge in WI and MN. If it’s these we are talking about then it would be 286-7-9-5+10=275. Still a win.
Throughout the year it seems to me that BHO has had a problem in the Rust Belt/Great Lakes region. Lots of trendy shtoodents voting Dem in the Great Plains is hunky dorey but will not win him any EV votes. For whatever reason he has not really sewn up these Keery 04 states (and NH). Of course, I expect him to hold on to most of these, but a non-NH loss may be critical. And the media narrative has been he will hold on to all of these. Is this lazy journalism? 40 odd days to go!!:-)
100. I suppose that could be an ace up Brown’s sleeve. He could threaten any potential usurper with a by-election in Ashfield on their watch. FWIW, I think Labour would be third in a by-election there just now.
58. Weirdly enough, I had a very similar experience to you, Nick, just yesterday, so I kind of agree.
I was walking down sunny Goodge Street when, just like you, I suddenly invented someone in my head, a pretendy lefty person, who told me (in my head) that he used to be an active poster here, then a regular lurker, and now has just stopped bothering.
He said that he enjoyed Sean Fear, David Herdson and others who posted interesting pieces from a Tory viewpoint, but every thread was now completely clogged up with Tories who were just brimming with confidence and who were sharp and articulate and had better arguments and who were funnier and smarter too and they kept pointing it out and they also kept saying that Labour was rubbish.
He said this made him really really upset cause it was true his party was rubbish but pointing it out was just unfair and he just preferred the site when he could pretend Labour were popular even though they aren’t and he said if all the horrid Tories didn’t stop having better arguments and being more confident and successful he was actually going to wet himself even though he was just a pretend person I’d made up as a lame attempt to make a point I’ve already made eighteen times before like a gaylord.
I said I’d pass it on.
123 marcusw. Please don’t shout at us in bold. Thank you.
Who remembers when Sean used to be funny
(OT)
I’ve only just got round to watching last Sunday’s episode of “Earth: The Climate Wars” which showed that the overwhelming weight of evidence is that global warming really is happening, and showed why most of the arguments of it not happening are erroneeous. But guess who tried to stir up confusion, exaggerate doubts, and debunk the evidence of global warming, in order to help George Bush get re-elected and thus to help the interests of the gas-guzzlers and the oil companies? Frank Luntz (he of the Newsnight focus groups).
Useful summary starts at about 47:00 and Frank Luntz comes in at about 51:00
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00dm7d5/
127.”The most vocal tend to be those from the party with most to be vocal about. For a brief stint in mid 2004 that was the Lib Dems.”
Mike, that might explain why there are now more SNP posters on here than either Labour, Tory or Libdems based in Scotland.
Usual caveats with a smaller sample, but it does back up your point.
122. Not sure about young and witty posters but there are a fair few old and unfunny ones.
132. I thought that was very funny.
That’s not shouting in bold.
THIS IS SHOUTING IN BOLD.
129.MalcolmG, your comment does not address the problems I raised in my earlier post. Any spokesman from all the four main parties could have written that, in fact, Gordon Brown uses the excuse of getting on with the job daily.
126 Rasmussen’s recent record is pretty much perfect Jack, as in final election predictor. And surely you cannot complain that he appears on Fox, you who have been defending the R2000 against all comers just because it’s commissioned by Kos? A pollster’s job is to predict correctly, their livelihood depends on it. If Ras says he’s up in PA then I will take that as an accurate snapshot on the date the poll was taken, no more and no less.
this has been an “events” election and there could be any number of Sep/Oct/Nov suprises, debating gaffes etc. In a way none of it means much now other than a tight race.
132
:-) seant is funny, that was hilarious.
134 aren’t you a little young to be so bitter Charlie.
135
“The Climate Wars” may well have proved something or other but the dumbed down, “personality” led presentation meant that I’d switched away before any facts at all emerged.
132. Well said. That’s why we have a better posting manner than say ‘LabourHome’ where when they do stick their heads above trenches seem more interesting in spotting shadowy ‘Tory’ posters who dare to mention the outside world.
141. I’d rather be bitter than a sycophant.
35. Does anyone know if any MPs are seriously ill, particularly Labour ones or are there are more rumours of a Labour defection? Given Gordon Brown’s luck, I am expecting either aLabour MP to die or one to announce his/her defection to the Tories just before Gordon stands up to make his speech and start relaunch 101.
The fact that they are still Labour MPs (and haven’t defected or resigned in disgust) proves that they are seriously mentally deranged. Perhaps a few might be unseated for insanity.
38. SkyNews: the doctor who accused a lawyer of killing her first two children (and who was then let-off on appeal, even though her third tot survived whilst she was incarcerated), and was subsequently struck-off the register, has been reinstated.
She wasn’t let-off on appeal. She was cleared on appeal.
144
Is that the sycophant in the room that nobody mentions ?
139. I disagree, there have been improvements in many areas,one example being the decision to keep the A&E’s open that Labour were closing, also getting rid of parking charges. These counteryour personal thoughts that hospitals are not great , I also have had to visit hospitals and would say that service was great, hospitals and staff excellent. You may have been unlucky ,however that i stwo people who think things have improved , against your experiences. Things are not perfect, but the SNP have made progress in 16 months, unlike Labour over many years.
141 Seant was funny when he attacked everyone with the same venom, but alas he is up Camerons literal backside.
Sad really thought he had more balls.
144 Seant’s comment was funny so I said so. If you believe that makes me a sychophant then I pity you.
Re 99 Whilst not leaping to extremes ie prison I ,and many middle-of-the-road people would accept,that Adrian Rogers 97 Exeter campaign was so hate-filled (homosexuality is sterile,God-forsaken,schoolchildren would be in danger in the event of Ben Bradshaw’s victory) 1997 campaign was vile and repulsive.(BTW,the words are striahgt from a novel that goes into 97 election night in great length-’Were You Still Up For Portillo?’
So,at the risk of being called Stalinist,dictatorial,I WOULD condone legal action being taken agianst any person who spouted views equivalent to Rogers words in 97.And no,I am not gay,although I have some gay friends
130. I agree with your analysis if Obama loses one of those states, but I really can’t see it happening. These states go Democrat whenever there is a recession, they’re naturally Democratic leaning, and Obama has a far superior ground operation. I think McCain needs a steady polling average of at least +2/3 going into the election. That didn’t happen, even during his convention/Palin bounce.
132-
Maybe the reassn Labour are on the slide is that there is no wit left in them. Albeit they were always a pretty unfunny lot. No surprise really when you think their leader, the thief of No 10 is somene who subscribes to the notion of unhappiness based on the thought that someone somewhere is having fun. Happily for him he has tried to ban it in Birtian.
135-Global shwarming? Spicy sauce please! And don’t go easy on the chilly peppers.
148 Look it is ok to laugh at your own side when they are crap. your sense of humour should not be defined by your politics.
11
Just like the Tories after 1992. Hilda’s sacking at least was a short and sharp affair.
Malcolm
140 test. I did say it was an a(s)nide !!
Certainly Ras were on the money in their final polling in 2004 but a little short of the spondolicks in this years primary season, although in truth few convered themselves in gold.
As we enter the business end of the contest with state polling I would simply caution punters to look carefully at the crosstabs, the trends, the sampling dates and the ranking of the pollsters. Lord only knows there’s some bum operations out there, ARSE (BUTT) should know !!
124 SeanT boring?
To you perhaps - but to many, his presence makes this site. I’m sure MikeS would privately agree.
Without him, the comments would be just like everywhere else.
137
Are all Tory Party tories so juvenile?
Malcolm
156 Post 132 case in point.
156, Thats my point they are starting to to be like everywhere else.
150-So you agree with curtailing free speech. Not surprised. Intolerance of intolerance trumps everything.
Actually Prof Rogers had a point. As a proportion of the populaiton a far higher % of paedos are gay than not. Don’t believe me? The vast majority of paedos seem to be men. The vast majority of victims aren’t girls. “Do the math”. Promoting homosexuality like this governemnt does increases the population of paedos. “Do the math”.
And, if you accept homosexuality, why not paedophilia and bestiality?
For the record, I do not have any gay friends.
153 I defy any Tory to deny that they didn’t laugh like a drain at John Redwood doing his blah-blah-blah singalong to the Welsh anthem! Pillock….
157 More’s the question: Are all Tory Party tories? Are all socialists pathological dinosaurs making hay with other people’s money? Parasites, if you will.
114. I wouldn’t give anonymous posts on a website too much credence.
135. I saw that series. It’s main strength and main weakness are the same thing, it treats you as though you know nothing at all about global warming.
152. Something in that - Labour have always been largely a humourless lot. But at least their boring seriousness used to be coupled with a genuine belief in their principles.
Charles Clarke is reinventing the genre of bad pennies, I am rather enjoying his take on yooooo nit eeeee
151-I think the thread a couple of days back summed it up. It will be like 2000/2004 redux with a couple of switchers.
161 It was a moment of pure genius, perhaps crystallising once and for all that 1997 was going to be a rough old night….
160. Do you have any figures to back up this nonsense?
165-What exactly is Charles Clarke’s agenda? I have not yet worked out if he is on the right, on the left, or merely an anti-Brownite. Does he still seek high office, I think not.
159 Dez, perhaps. But there are many coming out of the wood work. People who have never posted before…content to lurk and tut
occasionally.
What has changed is that the silent majority have realised that they cannot stand by. Otherwise, the lunatics take control of the asylum.
They have been push out of complacency…time for Fight or Flight.
Perhaps there is a mob out with computers and 8mb broadband and they are very, very angry.
169 pure unadulterated hatred of Brown I think, and not a little vengence for his ‘removal’
God! This thread had got very juvenile in the last 20 min’s.
141. Voreas. If you found that post by SeanT ‘hilarious’ then I can recommend a four hour Iranian film featuring female circumcision that’ll have you in stitches.
114 - Minnesota - Obama has spent nothing there so far, that would be my bet for Rasmussen showing a McCain lead.
He has already shown leads for McCain in MI & PA (juxst checked on that) and Minnesota seems to only plausible candidate left.
Don’t forget that Scott Rasmussen is an evangelical Republican, it’s a a shame that he lets it affect his polling so much that his company is seen as the most sympathetic to the party he supports. Anyone complaining at who commisions polls would do better looking at the people who do them instead.
160_I will get back to you. My proposition is:
-assume 50% of the control population are men, 50% women
-if “significantly more” than 50% of the victim are (let’s face it) young boys it would presuppose that homosexuals are overrepresented in the paedophile community.
Looks to me a clear cut case.
Soem will cover their eyes, mouth and ears and disagree.
McCain leads by one point in each of the CNN poll of polls for Ohio and Florida :
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/21/new-polls-mccain-obama-locked-in-battlegrounds/
174 how do you explain his near perfect result in 2004 then UKpaul? Surprised Zogby is still around after that one
Without being accused of crawling up SeanT’s arse, he is a published writer and we get his very particular erudite and amusing (if you can get accustomed to the taste of bile) take on current events - for free. Bargain, I reckon.
173. Is it badly cut?
87
‘Tonight it’s about connecting with the voters’
That will be truly challenging.
I have now been able to see the Politics Show debate from the Labour conference and it gave me a weird feeling of having been there before. And of course I have.
The inward focus of the debate was not solely because the leadership was such a prominent issue. The reversion to the shibboleths of the past was present in spades: redistribution and state control - the ban on short trading was just the start of new regulation apparently.
There seemed to be little connect with the reality of the voters. Those, and that included Clarke, who tried to drag them back to the simple fact that if they are not in tune with the voters they are doomed, were brushed aside.
But it was more than that. Several times Labour supporters said they were ‘here to govern’. And that gave me the cue. It is very close to the Tory belief in the two or three years before 1997 that they were ‘ the natural party of government’.
The similarities to the governing party in the early 90’s become eerie when you list them: a belief that the disastrous polls are not quite right, a determination to deconstruct them to find comfort, a leader under challenge and a cabinet briefing behind closed doors against him, a retreat to the comfort zones that no longer resonate with the electorate, a belief that if only the electorate were to be told of the wonders the government has achieved and the evils of the opposition all will be well, a common perception that the election must be put off until the last minute, dragging out the old warhorses to steady the ship, once friendly journalists raging against the leadership and party direction, one off boasts or PR stunts, evasive interviews by the PM.
History, in this case, does seem to be repeating a scenario. With one exception. John Major never went on TV and told such blatant Brownies.
176 polls of polls are totally meaningless.
Look at the R2000 Kos tracker. Reputable company and worth watching for trends, but its headline numbers are a joke as even the Democrat commenters on 538 will tell you. Oversamples Dems (9 point differential) oversamples women and oversamples Hispanics. I watch it daily for trends but its headline numbers are nonsense and on the basis of its sampling RCP is right to exclude it.
178. Agree. SeanT is very erudite and amusing; especially when he reports from Bangkok.
160. Your premise (As a proportion of the populaiton a far higher % of paedos are gay than not… The vast majority of victims aren’t girls)is inaccurate, and your conclusion (Actually Prof Rogers had a point) is therefore also wrong.
150. I disagree on three counts. (a) I am gay (b) I am a Stalinist (with Loony Characteristics) (c) I wouldn’t criminalise what Rogers said. Society is confident and strong enough to leave him to be condemned and ridiculed by public opinion and by rational argument on the basis of facts. Prison is for criminals such as burglars, drug dealers, knife booliaks, drink-fuelled violent yobs, rapists and murderers - not inadequate miserable homophobes. Adrian Rogers needs re-education, not incarceration.
160. If you can’t tell the difference between a private act between two consenting adults, and an act involving an adult forcing himself on or manipulating a child or animal then you really must have quite a high level of prejudice.
And what evidence do you have that paedophiles go after boys rather than girls?
Clearly we all believe in some restrictions on free speech. You wouldn’t allow people to shout “fire!” in a crowded theatre. Even JS Mill said you shouldn’t allow a hate-mongering speech about landowners in front of a an angry crowd with lit torches outside a landowner’s house. The same applies to speech in the era of the internet that incites hate against a sector of our population. The same applies to Abu Hamza types.
132….
To be fair I don’t think all the funny/sharp/articulate PB posters are on the right. I was being satirical!!??!!
Tyson could be droll, and very acute, in his own weird way (though I note he’s now, er, a Tory). Roger was once capable of very cutting insights (though he’s lost his vim, I fear, and is reduced to oddly inane observations of late). Snowflake was pretty impressive in her determination (but she has fled to the comfortzone of Labour Home).
And there I think is the problem, as Mike Smithson correctly says. It’s not that the Tories have crowded out the lefties with their gloating and boasting, it’s just that the lefties have lost conviction, due to the moral incoherence of their party, and their concomitant decline in the polls. Their increasingly feeble presence on here is a result of their philosophical and psephological decay, not a symptom of Tory “bullying”.
But that won’t be forever. I hereby predict that within two or three years of Cameron coming into power, this site will be chocka with angry lefties, fired with anger and conviction, while the righties will be rather less full of themselves.
Ain’t nobody’s fault. PB.com merely holds up a mirror to the British political soul.
173 come on roger that was funny. I know your lot are a little touchy at the moment but taking the mickey out of Nick Palmer’s endless attempts at saying the site has gone to the dogs and implying that all tories should be moderated out of existence is what is known as banter.
If it is worth anything and to show that I don’t just think seant is funny Coldstone occassionally says something funny as well.
182 — Test. what is 538, and how can I read it?
134. I think seanT is as hilarious and entertaining as ever. I’ve even quoted him on my website somewhere, if I remember correctly.
161 Redwood’s performance is one of the funniest things ever in politics - clearly he didn’ t care and didn’t care that people knew it
160/168 I have no figures to back/sack your case.I am sure of todays Cameron-led Conservative Party,the vast,vast majority would never want Adrian Rogers as a PPC again.I am also confident that 160 which more or less links homosexuality to paeophilia would be condemned by those of the left,right and centre amongst posters on here,and in the general public.I personally found 160 sickening
170,
Agreed in my opinion about time too.
Anger with the current economic system is well overdue for normal Joe`s and its going to go a bit beyond , I hate Gordon Brown.
Which however you try to convince me is becoming boring.
185-I actually do have a high level of prejudice.
160. And, if you accept homosexuality, why not paedophilia and bestiality?
Because homosexual relationships are between consenting adults. Paedophilia and bestiality involve at least one of the participants not being able to give informed consent. Why is it necesaary to point out something so obvious? Perhaps your message was some sort of cryptic spoof which I haven’t worked out yet.
Surely for paedos the sex of the child is irrelevant anyway?
188. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
190 My personal fav is David Steel winding up his 1981 Liberal leaders sppecg by saying ‘My fellow Liberals,go back to your towns-and prepare for government’-erm its been 27 years,David
185. Surely you are not suggesting a sad old git like Rogers is remotely comparable with Abu Hamza?
182 Test, the Kos rolling poll does not oversample women - at 53:47 in favour of women, they are exactly alligned with the proportions in which the sexes voted in 2004.
As for oversampling Latinos at 13% of their sample, I suspect that will also be very close to their 2008 proportion of the total. The are a fast growing demographic - and going for lower numbers requires you to buy into the notion that they will not vote for a black guy.
Scoff at the sampling at your peril.
174. Paul. I don’t know anything about US polling but it’s obvious that to rig a poll (which is what you are suggesting) would involve so many people that I don’t see how Rasmussen on his own could do it.
I always find it sad that when Labour starts to hit the buffers the automatic reaction of many in the Labour party ( as opposed to their voters) is to start playing the social class and politics of envy agenda. The supreme irony being that many of those behind such nasty campaigns are themselves the product of considerable privilege.
Here are my top ten reasons for wishing Labour as a political party to disappear into a black hole never to reappear.
1) Brown squandered a huge part of our national gold reserves before he had hardly learned how to unlock the door of 11 Downing Street.
2) Brown has stolen more than 100 billion pounds from our pension funds and then has the audacity to tell us we are not saving enough for retirement.
3) Blair lied to the country and took us into the Iraq War without remotely thinking how he would get us out the other end.
4) Blair signed a one-way extradition treaty with the US which the US has refused to ratify but nevertheless enables them to insist we extradite UK citizens without the US having to establish before any UK court that they have any evidence let alone a bona fides case against the UK citizen in question. As a consequence numerous British businessmen have been extradited to face kangeroo courts in the US but not a single one of the hundreds of IRA terrorists hiding in the USA has been sent back here (widely accepted as the reason why Congress wont ratify the treaty)
5) During Blair and Brown’s tenure in office, due to Labour’s buy now pay later attitude to economics the British public have clocked up more credit card debt than all the 250 million+ citizens in the other 26 EU countries combined.
6) Brown as Chancellor then PM has consistently claimed consistent quarters of growth which have included the 20 during John Major’s tenure but have never acknowledged the fact. Even last month Brown boasted about 63 quarters of growth under his stewardship when Labour had only been in power for 43 of those which were referred to.
7) During Brown’s tenure at No 10/No 11 he has incurred so much debt under PFI building the hundreds of schools and hospitals he boasts about, he has paid almost nothing for them and clocked up at least 30 years debt for his successors and those of us who will be paying the taxes to meet the bills and at the end of the relevant period we still wont own the assets in question.
9) Closer to home, under 18 years of Thatcher/Major, 3 hours was taken off the time it takes to drive from Glasgow to Inverness due to the large number of bypasses and and some dual carriageway they built. Under 11 years of Labour at Westminster and 8 at Holyrood, the sum total of improvement has been 2x 1.5 mile stretches of 3 lane road, one each on either side of Kingussie. In spite of more than 100 fatalities Labour refused to find the 400 million required to dual cariageway the entire 110 mile stretch instead of the roughly 30 miles we presently have but they managed to spend hundreds of millions resurfacing the M8 between Glasgow and Edinburgh which wasn’t in that bad acondition to start with.
10) As a unionist, I realise that Blair re-establishing the Scottish Parliament in 1998 fired the starting gun for the inevitable breakup of the UK forcing me and others like me to plan ahead in order to make Scotland as successful as possible once indpendence has been achieved, almost certainly in the next decade.
I cannot think of a single way in which my life is better than it was in 1997. I am certainly a great deal less well off though clearly more asset rich but as a friend (who was a Labour councillor and a member of the Christian Salvesen family) once said to me when explaining how she had managed to get legal aid under Labour to get a divorce, “you cannot eat paintings and furniture darling boy”!
175. if “significantly more” than 50% of the victim are (let’s face it) young boys it would presuppose that homosexuals are overrepresented in the paedophile community.
That’s a bit like saying “if hippopotamuses were the size of the Great Pyramid at Giza, it would be easier to estimate the world population of hippopotamuses”.
166
I was in the US before both the 2000 and 2004 elections and am here now. It certainly feels very different from those days. The economy is going to be a huge factor this time. Remember that the awful Clinton had built up a huge surplus before the sad little Bush boy wasted the lot.
Main Street is hurting; Republicans are seen to be sleazy and to be blamed for the mess.
A lot more blacks, hispanics and youngsters will be voting this time. Will they support the cancerous old fool or someone else.
You decide, and share some reasoning with us.
Malcolm
161,19 ……and now for your entertainment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIwBvjoLyZc
Possibly not quite as funny as Kinnock falling over on Brighton beach, but a pretty close run thing.
196. Thanx Soc.
182 test. “polls of polls are totally meaningless”
Burn the heretic !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
191, 194
Well I am firmly of the right and wholeheartedly agree with you in condemning the comments at 160. Johnloony’s explanation is absolutely on the nail both in its reasoning and in the comment that it should be unnecessary to spell out the obvious differences.
I am also with him that I wouldn’t ban Rogers saying wat he wants. I just think he - and Peter2 - are wrong. As with the BNP and others who hold this sort of intolerent line about people who are just a little different to them, the best way hang their arguments out to dry is to hand them the rope. Or if you are a businessman then sell them the rope and make a profit on the deal.
I think John Redwood could’ve just about got away with that if he’d not moved his head about so much…
Weathercocl Socrates gave you the link. A note - to read comments on any thread greater than the 200th post, you must click on “post a comment” and then in the blogger pop-up window click “newer” at the top to read the next bloc of comments. Took me ages to work out, very frustrating.
206 except for the ARSE, except for the ARSE! I recant! Spare me!
194 I never really understood why bestiallity was considered so evil.
For homosexuality, I accept the consenting adults argument. Even if I find the sight of 2 blokes kissing and cuddling off-putting, I also recognise that that they are that way by nature. Ok, so no problems with homosexuals, just dont want to watch…unlike lipstick lesbi@ns.
Thing about bestiality though…why is shagging a chicken considered worse than eating a chicken sandwhich. Regarding consent, what would the chicken prefer?
177 - It wasn’t near perfect for individual states, pretty near all the pollsters had the national result correct though.
Zogby are useless, Zogby interactive even moreso, some more are a little too erratic, I tend to look at Quinnipiac with more interest than others given that they use larger
182 - And you don’t think Rasmussen undersamples Dems?!? RCP would, if they were not being partisan omit Battleground and HOtline as there daily samples are also too small.
New thread now up.
Thanks
Double Carpet
147.How about someone in need of being admitted to hospital by ambulance, the delay in this happening? Apparently, like a shoe shop they were given the number 10 in the waiting line to be admitted when a bed became available. When did this happen? 2008, and if you think its a one off then you are not spending enough time in the right area’s.
Lack of beds rather than a lack of A&E’s or free parking spaces, which although desirable, tends to address the more populist area’s of contention which plays nicely in the media. As I said up thread, they are beginning to sound so New Labour in words and deeds.
Hazel telling everyone that reciting lists of achievements won’t win them the election….
I was right all along though, its seriously Hazel for PM
212 - “given that they use larger samples”
212 - “their daily samples” Whoops……
210 test. Recant at leisure …. as the flames lap !!
209. Tanx Test.
160. “For the record, I do not have any gay friends”
Just when I thought NickP was right……. Surely post of the month!
And there I was feeling sorry for Gordon…..
211 - don’t go to Russia - it is the norm there.
186. It’s not that the Tories have crowded out the lefties with their gloating and boasting, it’s just that the lefties have lost conviction, due to the moral incoherence of their party, and their concomitant decline in the polls. Their increasingly feeble presence on here is a result of their philosophical and psephological decay, not a symptom of Tory “bullying”.
As a lefty who hates the Labour Party, I rather like it on here. Detesting the authoritarian imperialist warmongering Labour Party even more than the vacuous Cameron-Clegg-clique is rather fun at the moment.
195: ‘Surely for paedos the sex of the child is irrelevant anyway?’
No, they do tend to favour one sex or another. However, paedophilia is really a particularly revolting form of sexual fetishism and it’s misleading to apply the tags ‘heterosexual’ or ‘homosexual’. In fact, I would imagine a large (if not the vast majority) of paedophiles who choose boys as their victims would never dream of having sex with an adult male. The philosopher Thomas Nagel deals with this issue in his book Mortal Questions under the chapter ‘Sexual Perversion’.
Roger. it’s not rigging the sample, it’s the use of particular numbers. Rasmussen weights harshly for party ID that are positive for Republicans.
Imagine that a poll in the UK said that they would only accept 25% of labour identifiers because that’s what they have found in their previous polls.
That’s the problem.
211 - i think she meant to say it is the norm in Russia for men to kiss!
Two thing’s before I leave tonight:
1. Prepare for new GE in Israel. I dont think Livni is going to be able to form a stable government.
2. Prepare for new termoil in the Market’s tomorrow, look’s like the new measures outlined on friday by Bush will not find full backing.
Number 211. “Thing about bestiality though…why is shagging a chicken considered worse than eating a chicken sandwhich. Regarding consent, what would the chicken prefer?”
Easting the chicken sandwich I suspect.
201. Well Easterross even though you are a unionist you cannot deny as a tory that the conservatives would do a lot better in an independent Scotland than part of the union as the SNP appear to be the battering ram for self government that then exhausts its point and splits….possibly helping the tories.
Apologies for the long winded sentence
201.”Under 11 years of Labour at Westminster and 8 at Holyrood, the sum total of improvement has been 2x 1.5 mile stretches of 3 lane road, one each on either side of Kingussie. In spite of more than 100 fatalities Labour refused to find the 400 million required to dual cariageway the entire 110 mile stretch instead of the roughly 30 miles we presently have but they managed to spend hundreds of millions resurfacing the M8 between Glasgow and Edinburgh which wasn’t in that bad acondition to start with.”
Anger is growing over the rising death toll on that road, growing up in Aviemore and now as someone who still spends a lot of time in the area, its bl**dy scandal!
But the SNP need to do more, and they made much of their commitment to improving and sorting the A9, they talked the talk now walk the walk.
Anger is growing over the rising death toll on that road, growing up in Aviemore and now as someone who still spends a lot of time in the area, its bl**dy scandal!
But the SNP need to do more, and they made much of their commitment to improving and sorting the A9, they talked the talk now walk the walk.”
As someone in a similar position to you Chris, I sympathise.
However, the SNP were forced (by the other 3 stooge parties), to allow £700 m to be spent on a one lane tram “system”in Embra, dont you recall?
If the SNP still had that (wasted) money, i’m damn sure they would have done a lot more by now to the A9!
Re 12.
I don’t know if this has been answered before (I’ve just skimmed through the posts), but regarding the promsied tax refund - it went through on 7th Sept all L codes uplifted by 60.
In English, if you were on a basic code of 543L, your code should now be 603L. Of course if you are not on an L code (or you are on an L code but on a weekly basis) you will not see a tax refund.
Just a note to anyone wondering why the date is 7th Sept for the change and not 1st Sept. The answer is simple. The tax that you and I pay through our wages is paid to the Government by the companies that we work for. The amount to be paid to the Government is calculated on a monthly basis with the dates being from the 6th of the month to the 5th of the month.
Setting the tax refund date to the 7th of the month means that whilst compaines will have to pay this extra amount to their employees from the 7th of Sep the Government doesn’t feel the effect of the reduction in tax revenues until around the end of October (when the tax due from 6th Sep to 5th Oct is due to be paid to them).
For small compaines (and even some large ones) it puts an extra strain on their cash flows), as they have to find extra money for one week of wages which they don’t see the benefit (of lower contributions to the tax office) for almost two months.