Labour level-pegging in Glenrothes: ICM
September 21st, 2008
But will the polls be as wrong as they were in Glasgow East?
A night of four polls all doing very different things has been finalised with an ICM survey in Glenrothes, scene of the upcoming by-election, which suggests that Labour is in for a hard fight.
In the seat that adjoins Brown’s and where the party had a 10,600 majority at the general election ICM found that both Labour and the SNP were on 43% each. That’s fine except as the paper reminds us a similar poll by ICM ahead of the Glasgow East by election had Labour 14% ahead. The only other poll in that election was reporting a Labour victory by 17%
But the numbers that are highlighted most by the Mail on Sunday on its by-election poll is the response to this: “If the Glenrothes by-election was a vote of confidence on Gordon Brown how would you vote”. The response: SNP 44%: LAB 41%: LD 8%: CON 5%
In another poll a YouGov study of 1,200 Labour members, suggests that a majority (53%) view the PM as “indecisive and dithering” while 34% thought he has “an exciting vision for the future”.
About 40% of the members want immediate leadership contest, against 52% who are opposed. Among potential successors, David Miliband is clear favourite - backed by almost a quarter, ahead of Health Secretary Alan Johnson and Justice Secretary Jack Straw on 13%.
Politicians always look for the good news and there’s little doubt that the ComRes poll showing Labour’s deficit is down to 12% will give real cheer to delegates at the party conference in Manchester. They will seek to dismiss the mega PH-YouGov marginal seats survey with a 34,000 sample because the field-work took place in July. That suggested and reported seat-by-seat a Tory majority of 146.
As I noted yesterday polling at conference time should be treated with care. The broadcasters are under an obligation to give extended coverage and this usually produces a boost like the one that the Lib Dems have enjoyed. We really do need to wait until the end of October.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Also in today’s MoS:
Mr Brown faced further problems last night after it was disclosed that former Cabinet Ministers Alan Milburn and John Reid have told him to his face that Labour’s disastrous ratings are his fault.
A desperate attempt by Mr Brown to woo former Health Secretary Mr Milburn, a close ally of Tony Blair’s, backfired when Mr Milburn told him: ‘Gordon, you are the problem!’
According to some reports, the two men swore at each other.
“Watch out next week for Brown’s conference bounce”
Do you mean over and above the one already already identified by ComRes and reported in today’s IoS?
If that proves to be the case, then it really could be the time to start betting on a No Overall Majority outcome at the next GE.
Whatever miniscule role Brown had in cementing the Lloyds TSB - HBOS deal, at least he seemed to be doing something. The Tories, on the other hand, have been conspicuous by their absence for the past two months - not good enough for a party seriously aspiring to govern.
As much as I detest the Illiberal Undemocrats, it would be very amusing if they gained Swansea West by a margin of 75 votes at the next General Election.[/in-joke]
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If Channel 4 did one of their top-100 lists of memorable general election moments, I reckon Mr Flynn from Galloway & Upper Nithsdale (1997) might get a mention.
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Gwynfa For sure, Labour will lose Aberconwy — as indicated by the recent decision of the reasonably popular Betty Williams to retire. I’d be surprised if Plaid Cymru came from fourth place to take it, but perhaps their are local factors (e.g., outstanding candidate) of which I am unaware. More likely, this seat will go blue.
I think you’re getting confused between Aberconwy (where PC was a notional very close 2nd place in 2005) and Conwy.
189. b. coalitions are political stitch-ups. No ballot paper ever mentions coalitions, no voter ever gets the choice of affirming or rejecting a coalition, he/she gets one vote to cast for the one party they would prefer. Coalitions are conspiracies by the undeserving to grab power.
A vote for a party is a mandate to represent the opinion of the voter in Parliament. A mandate from, say, 35.2% of the voters is not a license to govern undiluted; it is a mandate to negotiate for the party’s policies. A sensible party, with 35% of the votes and with reasonable policies, should be able to find enough representatives of other parties to reach a compromise and to enact most of the policies of that party, albeit with a few tweaks and knobs.
168. seanT It’s funny how lefties want to “change the system” whenever it is in danger of producing results they don’t like. From the EU ignoring the referendum verdicts to rumours that Labour might introduce PR in a desperate bid to cling onto power - it’s the same principle at work. Lefties basically despise democracy and think voters are stupid and selfish.
I have always wanted to “change the system” (by introducing STV) regardless of whether it “produces results I don’t like”, specifically because it gives the voters what they voted for. If that means a handful of BNP MPs, then I would accept that and I would have accepted it 25 years ago. As a lefty, I want democracy to be enhanced and strengthened. I don’t despise democracy, even if some of the voters might be stupid or selfish. As for the EU - that’s not a lefty phenomenon, it’s an authoritarian bureaucratic corporatist capitalist gallumphocratic anti-people phenomenon. As a patriot, I want the EU to be smashed to smithereens so that the peoples and nations of Europe can be liberated. (q.v. “On Having A Correct Understanding Of Nationalism” by Kim Jong Il, 2007).
85. If there was any danger of the BNP winning Barking or Dagenham + Rainham, surely all the other parties would pull out and encourage a Labour vote?
There would be absolutely no possibility that they would do so; the voters would be extremely angry if they were taken for granted in such a way. It would be just about the most effective way of ensuring that the BNP would win. If I lived in Barking or Dagenham, there is zero possibility that I would vote Labour at the moment - even if it were a straight fight with only 2 candidates.
Whenever voting figures have been mentioned here or anywhere else, the only prediction about Glenrothes I’ve ever read is that everybody assumes that it will be an SNP majority of 5,000. The fact that it was more marginal in 2005 than Glasgow East means that we aren’t really expecting anything else. The ICM poll is not just meaningless; it is much more out-of-date than the poll in Glasgow East was.
If there is another by-eleion opinion poll published on 5th November, it might be worth paying a bit more attention to.
Is Alan Milburn in the wrong party? alanmilburn.com is a Conservative site but alanmilburn.co.uk is all about privatising public services, health vouchers, education vouchers, and he thinks Gordon is the problem!
3 - a bit of an odd mix of different polls, but I think there be conventional at the of Labour conference. I cannot LD or Tory deposits holding in Glenrothes, and Gordon will lose, and those rebels who are “setting Glenrothes as a test” are in reality hoping he won’t stage a recovery.
Cannot access details details of 34000 poll, but it is interesting to Tory landslide but still 40+ LDs (albeit different ones). If the Tories get 50 majority, which I feel more plausible, I think the LD contingent could increase.
That MORI poll 12% LD poll does look strange. Conference season is volatile but if they others and they are equally out of line, should not MORI review their methodology - again - or give up?
Excuse early long post. Just been given my steroids and wide awake…
Ramp of the Month?
“The ComRes poll for the IoS put the Conservatives on 39 per cent, down seven points on August, while Labour is up two points, on 27 per cent. The Liberal Democrats are up five points on 21 per cent.
(This shows) that Labour has enjoyed a “bounce” at the expense of the Conservatives.
Labour’s two-point increase reflects in part voters’ approval of Mr Brown taking a leading role in the Government’s reaction to sliding markets following last Monday’s collapse of Lehman Brothers.”
Even Roger isn’t that good!!
From the MoS article:
- “Asked who has the best answers to Scotland’s problems, the SNP’s rating is 36, way ahead of Labour’s 17.”
This chimes with other recent (all-Scotland, rather than single-constituency) YouGov fieldwork, eg:
- “Thinking about the performance of the UK Labour Government and the Scottish SNP Government over the past year…
Which do you think cares MOST about the needs and interests of you and your family?”
UK Government 16%
Scottish Government 52%
http://www.yougov.com/uk/archives/pdf/SNP_website.pdf
Oddly, the actual voting intention figures for all parties are missing from the MoS article - only Lab and SNP numbers are published (43% each), and the ICM website has not published the datasheets yet.
Do we know if ICM have tweaked their methodology since getting Glasgow East so dramatically wrong? To their great credit Ipsos MORI conducted an extensive inquiry after getting the London Mayoral election wrong, and subsequently adjusted their methodology (the public-sector employees weighting).
Please remember that the date for the Glenrothes by election has not even been set yet (although 6 Nov seems highly likely). The equivalent ICM Glasgow East poll showing the 14 point Labour lead was only (from memory) about 3 weeks before polling day… when the SNP gained the seat by a 1.4% margin over Labour.
6. Hope all is well SBS. Them patientline thingsare useful (even if they are expensive). I’m up with toothache after having my wisdom teeth out.
This Yougov poll looks interesting. Just asking for info on my constituncy although I don’t know how much that’s going to cost.
8. typo: the sentence beginning “This chimes… ” is my comment, not a quote from the MoS. (Bloomin markup… )
Nursery places for 2 year olds in a decade. Talk about a govt that’s run out of ideas. We’ll have Nursery teachers pulling kids out of the womb next.
Neither Ladbrokes nor William Hill have their Glenrothes prices up yet today (Wake up Shadsy!!), but we do have PP’s prices:
Paddy Power - Who will win the Glenrothes by-election?
SNP 2/9
Lab 11/4
LD 40/1
Con 66/1
Does anyone know if Betfair are likely to put up any kind of Glenrothes market? Of the bookmakers, Sporting Bet ran prices on Glasgow East, but I am not aware that they have posted Glenrothes prices yet.
More crashes next week, this is far from over.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/09/21/cnbradford121.xml
FSA in talks to find buyer for B&B
The City regulator is involved in secret talks to engineer a takeover of Bradford & Bingley as it seeks a permanent solution to secure the future of the embattled buy-to-let mortgage lender, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.
Voting systems - I am pretty ambivalent on voting systems. I quite like STV but probably prefer FPTP to AV. The problem is belief the LDs can never win under FPFP, the wasted vote line the Tories still on LDs (basically Tories historically asking for liberals to vote Tory tactically). The 60 odd seats today is testament to that LD can make FPTP work rather than getting between 6 and 23 seats 1950-1992.
Electoral reform should not be dealbreaker/maker - especially with Labour. For the LDs it is certainly more on the backburner than the past - compared to the Alliance focus on it in the 1980s.
I also do not mind sometimes about the LDs as a think tank for other parties. Who cares if we get many MPs so long our policies resonate and get nicked by say the Tories next time?
6 - meant in first line “conventions poll the end of the Labour conference” (ie 1000 people polled voting intention…)
You keep taking the polls; I’ll keep taking the pills…
The link to Anthony’s UK Polling Report has gone haywire:
ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
… so has anyone got a link to the PDF file for the Scottish findings of that massive 34,000 respondent YouGov poll out today? I am keen to have a rumage, as the only tidbit I have spotted to date really caught my attention!
It was this from post on last night’s pb.com thread, by Jim M:
“These poll figures are incredible for Scotland.
Stirling - SNP GAIN
Argyll and Bute - SNP GAIN
Aberdeen North - SNP GAIN
Aberdeen South - SNP GAIN
Dunfermline and West Fife - SNP GAIN
Edinburgh North and Leith - SNP GAIN
Dundee West - SNP GAIN
Kilmarnock & Loudoun - SNP GAIN
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP GAIN
“If the same swing was repeated beyond the marginals polled the SNP would also gain Glenrothes, Midlothian, Linlithgow and Falkirk East, Lanark and Hamilton East, Paisley and Renfrewshire North, Edinburgh East, Ayrshire North and Arran and East Lothian. High profile defeats would include Des Browne, with Alistair Darling hanging on only narrowly.””
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/20/tory-majority-of-146-according-to-34000-sample-poll/#comment-780572
… and from many other comments I know that there was great surprise that the poll predicted that the Scottish Tories would fail to take Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk from the Lib Dem’s Michael Moore MP, contrary to what has been almost universally predicted to date. So, I assume that the poll concluded the Tories would be stuck on just one Scottish MP? That would be astounding when one considers what is going on in England, with the ‘Cameron Effect’.
But, I want to peruse all the Scottish findings from that poll. You know what us anoraks are like…..
11 - and guess what? It’s an extension of a current scheme and:
“Aides were stressing that the extra childcare places were an aspiration rather than a firm policy commitment.”
Does Brown have any new ideas? And why is he nudging parents towards abandoning their children at two years old, when they should be loving and caring for them?
9 - cheers! The internet connection here is actually free but so slow. In fact pb.com is only website I can get to work today.
2 - how exactly can an opposition party be seen the be “doing” anything?
16 - surveys have shown that both parental and nursery care and positive for young children.
What children do less well with are childminders and especially “other family” - usually grandparents.
I note that Scottish Labour MPs are not popular among the wider Labour Party membership, at least according to today’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll, eg:
- “If there is a Cabinet reshuffle in the next few weeks, which, if any, of the following cabinet ministers do you think Mr Brown should sack?”
Alistair Darling 21%
Des Browne 14%
Only Ruth Kelly (26%) is more unpopular than Darling among Labour members.
- “Do you think Alistair Darling is doing well or badly as Chancellor of the Exchequer?”
Very well 8%
Fairly well 44%
Fairly badly 31%
Very badly 12%
- “In recent months, opinion polls have shown that Gordon Brown’s ratings are low. Which these factors do you think have contributed to his low ratings?”
Policy errors such as the abolition of the 10p tax rate 61%
Mr Brown’s personality and style of leadership 52%
Remember, this is among LABOUR PARTY MEMBERS!! Just imagine what the general voting public are thinking!
The other findings are just as fascinating:
http://extras.timesonline.co.uk/yougov.htm
20 so Darling has a net positive approval rating.
‘Labour heading for Fife poll rout’
The Scottish National party is on course to win the Glenrothes by-election with a 5,000 majority, according to Labour’s own canvass returns.
… private polling by Labour has convinced party strategists the seat is already a lost cause.
Senior Labour figures described their party’s campaign as “shambolic” and “doomed” after Frank Roy, the government whip who helped to manage Labour’s Glasgow East campaign, quit amid disagreements over tactics.
Party strategists have refused to allow the Labour candidate, Lindsay Roy, a political novice, to give interviews amid concerns he may make a gaffe.
Another senior source said: “… We’re going to get creamed and that will be the end of Gordon Brown.”
… Tom Harris [MP for Glasgow South], a transport minister, is risking the sack after praising David Cairns, the Scotland Office minister who resigned this week in protest at Brown’s leadership. On his website, Harris said Cairns “deserved respect” for his decision.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4795210.ece
Here is Tom Harris’ blog:
http://tomcharris.wordpress.com/
I cannot see the Cairns quote. Has it been ‘purged’?
21. SBS
Yepp. But only just! And this among Labour Party members, who obviously are going to be aware that the findings will be published…..
Imagine what they all really really think of Brown, Darling, Browne et al?
19 - obviously nursery care is a good thing, but only when children are old enough to socialise, otherwise they miss out on the love of parents and arguably parents don’t fully bond with their children as they develop if the children spend most of their time with strangers. Surely 2 years is too young?
The PH YOU Gov poll has bben dismissed as out of date However post160 from previous thread shows that the voting in these marginals as awholw was very close to the GE overall figures.
Likewise if you look at the You Gov national polls for July they are pretty close to the 46.24,17 in the 238 marginals at that time.
This means that we have a way of adjusting the poll for subsequent changes of opinion.Thus taking the latest You Gov of 44,24,20 gives Tories -2% Lib dems +3%.
As Bob Worcester reminds us however polls today are not the sameas GE in 2010But we can feed in a rangbe of swing assumptions against teh july You Gov base and see what it gives.I Would be interested in waht it shows for 40,30,20,10 which still seems to me alikley outcome.The November polls after the conference swing season is over would be agood time to look at swings against July.
One final caveat-in England the best predictor of number od seats has tended to be straight swing versus the alst election(taking account of constituencty changes-factors such as regional trends tactical voting and incumbuncy seem to average out.
rogerh
Thanks to PfP from the Broxtowe cats for promptly conceding the bet about the falling Tory ComRes lead - you’re a gent!
25. rogerh - “The November polls after the conference swing season is over would be agood time to look at swings against July.”
Agreed. We are not going to be able to judge much from the current ‘conference polls’. Mike Smithson said (yesterday?) that we really have to wait until the end of October polls before drawing any conclusions. Wise advice, although of course punters always have to act on imperfect information.
17 SBS - I don’t know whether you saw my suggestion last week that you acquire or borrow a broadband dongle for your laptop (assuming they are allowed in hospital), I have Orange’s version and it’s truly excellent.
Very best wishes.
26 Thanks Nick - how do I obtain from you the payee and address details? Perhaps via Mike Smithson or PtP?
If you are a resident of anywhere on the Thames Estuary, how pleased will you be?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4794832.ece?Submitted=true
Not that it will ever happen!
26. When are you travelling north to Fife Nick? We look forward to your canvass reports from the streets of Cardenden, Glenrothes, Kennoway, Kirkcaldy, Leslie, Markinch or Methil. Your canvass reports from Glasgow East were fascinating, revealing much much more than I think you were aware!
Incidentally punters, I have just discovered this proto-blog, which may or may not turn in to a Glenrothes by-election blog:
http://www.glenrothesbyelection.com/
Health warning: consume all blogs with great care (even pb.com).
31 I have down loaded the whole pdf of the report if you want it - just give me your e-mail address.
32. Err… thanks, I would love to, however I do not intend to publish my email adress here, or anywhere! You know, my fan club is so large that I would not be able to post for 6 months until I had sent all my correspondents a signed photie.
Ask Mike, perhaps he can give it to you? Otherwise, have you not got a weblink?
Jim M said in last night’s pb.com thread that Gordon Brown’s Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath constituency would be the furthest north Labour seat in the whole UK, if the PH/YouGov findings were replicated at the next UK GE.
Paddy Power - Will Gordon win his seat?
Singles Only. Applies to Gordon Brown winning the constituency of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath in the next UK General Election. Bets void should he not stand in the next general election for that constituency.
Yes 1/80
No 16/1
Aha! I found it (all the PH weblinks to date have been broken).
Here is a pretty map of the PH/YouGov findings (note the position of Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath):
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?Blog=2940&perma=link#
… and here are those PDF links:
http://www.politicshome.com/UltimateEditorInclude/UserFiles/PDFs/PoliticsHome_Scotland.pdf
http://www.politicshome.com/Landing.aspx?Blog=2939&perma=link#
Oh joy!
As the ICM polls of Glasgow East were wrong and the one for Glenrothes is suspicious, then the YouGov polls of the marginals has to be equally so for each constituency, although overall still valid. That Balls may or may not be defeated in Morley (or anyone else anywhere for that matter) cannot be deducted, especially if they are in what now becomes a marginal.
30. Chinese want to put their money in something that isn’t a bank.
Incidentally, has anyone noticed the following - if the US bailout plan goes ahead, this will leave the UK with a problem. To follow suit, we will need to up public sector borrowing massively.
If we don’t, the problems with our own toxic loans will drag the UK financial sector down. Either we will suffer an extended economic slump throughout the economy, or foreign banks will have to be allowed take over a massively increased share of the market. Goodbye London as a financial centre possibly…. And for those that don’t care about that, goodbye the balance of trade and the tax base that pays for much of the schools & hospitals for the whole country.
Anyone who says that we don’t have such a problem is talking rubbish.
28 - thanks for the suggestion. But I think I’ll get away without full access for another week.
#14, I hae never considered the LibDems as merely a think-tank.
But your point stands. Consider all the Monster Raving Looney policies that were implemented. Sunday trading, 24-hour licensing, etc….!
#38 hae = have.
36, on that point:
http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1669
The summary is that certain European banks are too large to be allowed to fail but equally too large to be saved.
‘Only a magical turn of events can save Brown now’
Iain Macwhirter on Labour crisis
“Labour MSPs were last week hoping the PM’s decisiveness in merging HBOS with Lloyds TSB, saving thousands of Scots jobs, might have been enough to revive Labour hopes for Glenrothes. But there is now a nagging sense of betrayal about the merger, not least from some in the Edinburgh financial community who say it was mishandled. Standard Life chief executive Keith Skeoch has suggested HBOS could have been saved as an independent company if stock exchange rules had been observed and share dealing suspended early while merger talks were under way.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.2450076.0.0.php
34: As well as the stats published in the PH report, I would be interested in your view on the mood swing in Scotland and whether you feel that it will last and what the SNP could/might do to halt/reverse this swing. Otherwise, I would agree with PH and that Labour face a virtual wipeout in Scotland with SNP taking votes from all parties.
2 There is no bounce in the ComRes poll - Labour are within MoE an d at their standard mid-high 20s position, it was a bounce for Clegg and the Lib Dems only.
Also, it was Osborne who was first to the fore on Newsnight giving open and honest opinion on the crisis, regardless of wat you think of what he said, he ws hardly invisible
15 It concluded 4 Scottish seats for the Tories - gains in Dumfired and Galloway, Renfrewshire East and Edinburgh S
*Dumfries not Dumfired
The more you look at the marginal megapoll, the more you realise what an absolutely dire situation Labour is actually in. Of course there is margins of error etc but they can work in both directions. The chance that the Conservatives aren’t doing as well as this poll suggests is as likely as the chance of them doing even better. I think that this sort of figure feels about right, there is very little chance of any party getting a majority of 250+ and the Conservatives are rising off a low base. A result in line with this poll would be a sea change. I think also some of the peripheral questions in this will make utterly dispiriting reading for the other parties. More than 3/4 of Conservative voters say that there is little or on chance of their vote changing. Obviously caveats apply but to my mind that suggests that the change has happened and a comfortable Conservative victory is now all but locked in. I think only the most extreme circumstances will lead to anything other than a majority Conservative government after the next election.
The danger for the other parties is that the Conservatives are back in the business of winning and they have the resources in human and financial terms to use the evidence of this survey to retune their strategy. They have a more solid basis of support and are in the process of beefing up their policy offering. Labour and the Lib Dems have a lot more to worry about from this than the Conservatives.
Greeting from the Manchester love in…
yooooo-nit-eeeeee
44. Thanks. Yes, I see that. I largely concur. Certainly Edinburgh South looks a shoo-in for the Tories, with Labour (Nigel Griffiths MP) almost certainly dropping to at least 3rd place. I certainly hope the Tories gain Renfrewshire East - I have no time whatsoever for that charlatan Jim Murphy. I have my doubts about the Tories winning Dumfries and Galloway, although, on balance, they must be favourites in that seat? I think they probably will gain Berwicksire et al from the Lib Dems.
I find it disappointing that the only Lib Dem/SNP marginal PH/YouGov polled was Argyll & Bute (which they predict as an SNP gain). What about Gordon and Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey? Polling Moray was a waste of time (Anthony!!), so they should have done Gordon instead. Oh well, it is such an impressive sample size already that I ought not to complain.
47, I thought most Mancunians supported City?
Got any juicy gossip for us? Has Miliband resigned? Does Alistair Darling really use a black felt tip pen on his eyebrows every morning?
40. Haven’t you heard - the fundamentals of the European economy are much better placed to weather this storm etc…..
Denial is not just a river in Egypt.
I reckon that the US is more than 2/3rds through this now, in terms of the credit crunch. UK is behind, maybe 1/2…. For the rest…..
By the above I mean just the banking crisis. The recession to follow will last at least 2 years. Quite simply, the economy here was being driven by house price inflation and extracting capital from property. This has stopped. It will not start again until the recession is over, and then will be in a much reduced form - it will be a generation before banks will *want* to lend more than 4x & 25% deposit.
50, it’s been predicted for ages though, by various people. You can’t build an economy on debt secured against over-inflated house prices and expect it to actually work in the long run.
I still can’t believe, and I’m moving from confoundment to anger, that the banks were so stupid, and why didn’t the ratings agencies do their jobs, instead of giving CDOs and SIVs high ratings?
Is a megapoll more accurate, than a poll of 1000 people?
Too much information, often produces the wrong answer, the more you have to analyse, the more people doing the analysis, the more opportunity for error.
How do you measure the coast of Britain? The smaller the scale, the bigger it gets, eventually you reach infinity!
49 Sorry no gossip that I can share. yooo-nit-eeee, yooo-nit-eeee
#50, sorry but I have to disagree.
Whilst property prices - and capital extraction of said - have triggered the credit-crunch, the UK economy has also bee driven by a wastage of taxes and the accumulation of debt (a.k.a. public investment into health, education and immigration). The UK can no longer afford such largess.
Our recession will be enforced when a responsible Chancellor-of-the-Exchequer curbs the excess of the state-sector. Strangely Alistair Darling could do it, but for the clunking-fist elephant-in-the-room that is our Prime Minister.
Certainly the days of multi-billion pound aid to Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and Europe - not to mention the official aid budget - are long due for attention. The English tax-payer can only bare so much…!
The conclusion from the last week must be that the LD’s have little to fear and perhaps much to gain from the next GE. YouGov demonstrates statistically the strong LD incumbancy factor and the polls this weekend show how the LD scores improve rapidly when they get the attention of the press, which would come in a GE campaign. YouGov is a vignette, a snapshot from July and they would retain more seats now than then. 50+ now looks likely and I think that the LD’s if anyone will learn lessons from YouGov and we will see them strongly targeting an additional 20 or so Labour seats.
The worry for Cameron is the arrogance and complacency now prevalent in his party. I’m sure he sees it (he only has to visit this site) and will try to combat it, but it will feed itself as Labour continues to collapse in next June’s local eleections and the Tories gain Labour and UKIP Euro seats. They should comfortably win the next GE (30-50?), but…
I’d like to hold out some hope to our Labour friends. There isn’t any I’m afraid.
Brown on Marr:
“This [credit crunch] has come out of America”
So the UK and its Government is entirely blameless, eh Gordon? Just US house prices that ran out of control was it?
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls and election projection that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 44.2% .. Lab 25.4% .. LibDem 18.6% .. Others 11.8%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 397 seats .. Lab 165 .. LibDem 52 .. Others 36.
Con majority of 154.
David Cameron is Prime Minister
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
55. Cameron is anything but complacent - hence the lampoons in the Tamzin Lightwater column (written by a CCHQ insider) of him trying to suppress good news.
54. Partially true. The recession will start when the effect of the credit taps being turned off by the banks filters through.
How the Daily Mash sees the market turmoil!!
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/weekending/weekending%3a-market-turmoil-20070818354/
PfP - if you Google Cats Protection Nottingham it’ll come up - New Farm Lane Nuthall etc. Tell them the reason! - they know about the bets and are much amused.
Thanks again!
57 - I fear you are overstating Conservative support! 397 seats is a majority of 144, not 154
New PPP poll for North Carolina :
McCain 46% .. Obama 46% .. Barr 5% .. Nader 0%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_92168.pdf
Fluffy Thoughts - Thanks for recommending Audition last night - good film but quite disturbing!
What are the 4 polls mentioned at the beginning of the thread? The big 35k one, the ComRes 12% Tory lead, the ICM Glenrothes and the YouGov Labour party members?
61 VftSW. Just testing !!
54: Agree basically. especially the off the balance sheet PFI and unfunded public sector pensions. The crunch is only just beginning. Expect more warnings from the IMF .
Cannot agree to the depth of Oborne’s gloomy prognosis in the Mail: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1058601/Apocalypse-Now–New-world-order-devastating-implications-Western-nations.html.
Whilst Europe will come under pressure and certain economies will fracture, there will not be total meltdown. The Euro may fracture as the stronger countries may not wish/be able to support the weaker ones. This was always a danger unless the whole economy of Europe was centralised under one ministry and there are common taxation rates for all - something not in my horizon.
By the way Fluffy Thoughts, will it be a pleasant sight if you bare too much?
Marr pressing Brown on whether taxes will have to go up
Brown evades answering
Marr: Taxes won’t have to rise?
Brown shifts uncomfortably in chair…
“It’s right for us to borrow….”
US: Then latest local polls are not bad for McCain. Uni of Cincinatti has him 6 ahead i Ohio. This is 2 points better than last week, during the height of his Palin boost, but field work 12-16 Sep started before the Wall Street troubles, so he migth be worse off now.
http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/09/poll_main.html
PPP has the two tied at 46 in North Carolina. Good for Obama, but Democrat-leaning PPP has shown better numbers for him than the average pollster, and we would have to have more close polls, and perhaps a poll showing Obama in the lead before NC looks really competitive.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_92168.pdf
R2000 has McCain ahead 49-45 in Missouri. Not in itself impressive, but R2000 had been the only pollster since June to have Obama up in Missouri, by 5 in July, and field work is recent (15-18 Sep).
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/news/stories.nsf/politics/story/43895DDA1683ECEE862574CA00119713?OpenDocument
McCain needs to stabilise the national tracking polls today. If Obama gets to a average lead of 4-5 percent, I think it will be very difficult to close the gap.
Aaaaaah - so “boom and bust” was 15% interest rates, says Gordon.
Alles klaar….
FFS Brown won’t even admit this is a bust or tat the boom was based on overinflated house prices
He won’t accept that unemployment is the hgiest for 10 years
What a tool
Labour - get rid of this delusional idiot now. Or forever pay the price.
And nor inflation is fine because its not his fault
And inflation is apparantly lower here than just about everywhere else
Brown does not accept that he does not take responsiblity for his failures
HAHAHAHHAHAHA he thinks that it s new phenomena that polls and elections during a parliament are a referendum on governments
Perhaps that is why we don’t need real (Euro Constitution) referendums? We have polls?
re 53. Is it UNITE AND DIE?
OMG, he states that he and Alistair Darling have ‘anticipated events’ - tell that to the staff of HBOS, tell that to the staff of Northern Rock
sickening liar
Brown just said there is low debt in this country! Is he bonkers?!?!
77 Utterly delusional or lying through his teeth. You choose.
Any Labour MP watching that display by Brown can be in doubt that he has to go. Delusional tw@t or what
3 The old (Westminster) Conwy seat — for which Betty Williams is the MP — suffers boundary changes and a name change to become most of the new Aberconwy seat.
The boundary changes significantly help Plaid Cymru & the Tories, and hinder Labour.
There is already an Aberconwy seat for the Assembly elections (which Plaid Cymru hold). However, I think there are different biases in play for the devolved elections as opposed to the Westminster elections, and I’d be reasonably cautious about extrapolating from Assembly to Westminster.
I believe the Conservative PPC for Aberconwy — Guto Bebb — is an occasional poster on pb.com.
78 - Probably both. Its moments like these that want to make me smash the TV screen, and no doubt a lot of other people share the same thoughts.
75 No Comment Mike…
yooo-nit-eeee, yoo-nit-eeee, yooo-nit-eeee
Yes I have just watched the Brown Debt comment in complete disbelief. He thinks the government has brought debt down in the last 10 years? WTF!
He then said this country was based placed to whether the storm - The man is barking!
The by-election poll is nonsense, I should imagine Labour are in for a right old Hammering there.
78 Why does one need cto choose? Both are equally applicable.
68 Jan. PPP is a NC pollster and was apart from Zogby (Stopped Clock Theory) closest in the NC primary. I’m not too surprised by this latest poll as it represents around the national swing to Obama since their last poll. The internals look ok apart from differential turnout of AA in 2004 - 26%.
I’m not too sure that McCain has to worry unduly about 4-5% at this stage. I’ve said many times that the debates will be crucial and if McCain out performs expectations (first debate next Friday on foreign policy) then he pull that back comfortably and indeed may squeeze out that lead before hand. On the other hand …. The debates and “events” and just over 40 days to election day !!
81, I can’t watch the Andrew Marr show. I’m too prone to swearing at the TV.
Pity that the BBC don’t make greater use of Andrew Neil. Yes, I know he has the Daily Politics and This Week, but the former’s a daytime show and the latter’s on at the dead of night. Meanwhile Nick “How do you want me to phrase that, Gordon?” Robinson and Robert “Oh look, I’ve ruined the banking sector again” Peston get far too much airtime.
BBC news needs a thorough culling.
“I do not like thee Doctor Fell
The reason why I cannot tell
But this I know and know full well
I do not like thee Doctor Fell”
Awful. Awful. Awful.
If that had been a job interview, walking through his CV and asking about his past achievements and his future ambitions - there is no way on earth I would have employed that guy.
He has to go. If the Labour Party won’t do it, maybe HM the Q will have a quiet word.
83 - to be fair he’s right, he has brought debt down over the last ten years. The problem is that it troughed 6 years a go.
88, that is highly unlikely, but would be very cool.
“Today, Her Majesty the Queen, issued this press release. ‘Gordon is a moron. I have therefore had him fired into space using some sort of giant artillery gun. Parliament is dissolved, and a General Election to be held at once’. Mister Brown was unavailable for comment.”
This is quite a neat little site
89. Are you including Northern Rock and PFI in with that?
89, PFI and Northern Rock are enormous, and off the balance sheet.
68. Absolutely agree. If McCain was within 2 or so Obama I think that is vulnerable enough coming close to the day itself for McCain to trip Obama at the line.
4 or 5% behind and McCain has an issue unless the GOP have something in the locker that we havent seen yet.
And on that, I’m off for a run in what is glorious late summer/early autumn sunshine. You could almost play Van Morrisons Days Like These as a backdrop to the Sunday morning calmness in this part of the city. What a town……Then you remember that Van is grumpy oul so and so and the atmos is spoiled….
The “NY Times” looks at groups not directly linked to Obama who are spending tens of million of dollars on ground and media spends to help elect Obama :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/us/politics/21ground.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
Any suggestions how one is able to make email contact with the Prime Minister?
All I get is this reply
Tuesday 12 August 2008
Email Number 10
We have decided at this time that it is important to take another look at the E-mail Number 10 service to ensure that it meets the same high standards as the other content and communication measures that the website delivers.
Unfortunately, this means that we will be unable to replace the service as quickly as we had hoped, but we aim to have it up and running as soon as possible. Please accept our apologies for any inconvenience caused
88. Could the Queen forcibly appoint him to be Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds?
I’m sure if duty called, Gord would do his utmost to get on with the job.
Northern Rock is included.
90 - What is it with you and field guns?
91, not sure if it’s that site or my computer, but it made firefox freeze for me.
99, I’m not interested in weapons so much as members of the Cabinet being fired into space.
The Govt is still claiming to be hitting it’s 40% target remember. Even with all PFI (not all of which SHOULD be included) and Northern Rock it is still under what it was in 1997. But that’s irrelevant coz we’re at different stages of the economic cycle.
Public sector net debt, expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), was 43.3 per cent at the end of August 2008, compared with 36.4 per cent at end of August 2007. The increase was largely due to Northern Rock which is now included in the figures from October 2007, the date of its classification to the public sector; latest figures for June 2008 show Northern Rock adding 6.0 per cent to the debt ratio.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=206
The “NY Times” reports that the three Presidential debates will be more of an open format but the single Veep debate was on McCain’s insistence more structured :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/21/us/politics/21debate.html?ref=politics
Presumably it’s quite good for a future Conservative Govt coz they’ll be able to offload Northern Rock and reduce borrowing by 6% at a stroke!
101. An unwise thing for Brown to say either way due to the massive forcast rise in debt plus GDP falling as well! It is going to rocket!
Brown has got no new solutions and he is far from resolute in his *leadership*!
85 I agree that the debates can be crucial, but I think we have few (no?) recent examples of candidates being 4-5 percent behind at this stage and going on to win. Pollster.com had an article some time ago showing the timeline of poll averages for the recent elections, but I cannot find it now.
102. And more importantly, with the budget deficit headed for £80-100bn p.a over the next two years, where will it be by 2010….
Are my ears deceiving me or has Harriet Harperson just stated on Sky News that the goverment is going to borrow more?
107, ’twill not be pretty. Spineless Gordon will simply borrow to his heart’s content and leave it for the next lot to clear up. The Tories have got to hammer this point home.
93 Northern Rock isn’t off balance sheet now is it? Thought the ONS had made changes?
89 Alex To quote from Coffee House “HM Treasury says net debt was 41.3% in 1997-98 Yesterday the ONS said net debt was 43.3%” - that’s the opposite of “brought debt down over last 10 (actually 11) years”
Gordon still regurgitates the statistics of last year - which is why 10 years still pops up - possibly because he uses repetition and as result has a limited political vocabulary.
108, was she giggling, or straight-faced?
#65, ooh, you are awful…!
I wonder what Freud and Jung would make of the internet? Is our poor spelling a function of our education system or a deeper carthic expression…?
Labour MPs wake up today and pick up the inhouse party Broadsheet, the Observer. They then read about most of the 200 of them are likely to lose their seats under Brown! That is the significance of this poll. They can also read a host of articles including:-
Andrew Rawnsley “The party faces a humiliating wipeout across the country.” …. “Eight members of the cabinet joining the dole queue. “ …. “Senior ministers, like other Labour MPs, have tried to console themselves with the thought that they might somehow defy the national swing against their party. This poll, by sampling opinion in their own seats, destroys that consolation.”
http://tinyurl.com/3lvrq5
Editorial “The evidence is clear. Labour isn’t working”…. “The poll data are clear: Labour under its current leader is bust.”
http://tinyurl.com/3fnww8
107 Or even by spring 2009….when there might yet be an election. A few “bullet catchers” have been sent over the top. But we have not yet seen the Big Push on Downing Street. But after Glenrothes…
When are the men in white coats coming for Brown? The man needs help and is suffering from severe delusions about the current situation, most of which is of these own making.
I also shouted and swore at the TV - notice that Mike Smithson is almost lost for words!
110 - Fair point, i was thinking 10 years = 1997.
The whole “ten year, five year, twenty year, whatever” comparison is meaningless anyway.
The “LA Times” looks at the swing state of Ohio and Obama campaining in Florida on the issue of social security :
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-ohioecon21-2008sep21,0,5869591.story
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-campaign21-2008sep21,0,5621230.story
Most of PFI should be included - money borrowed by the government (or bodies backed by the government). Put it like this, the Treasury is the last resort for them.
Pensions are off budget due to them just being IOUs - but we still have to pay them.
I think off-budget economics just became unfashionable, by the way
100. I like artillery. Firing the cabinet into space is a cost justification. On a more practical level, if we bring back the stocks can I make a bid for the franchise to sell rotten eggs etc? I reckon Gordon might bring in quite a crowd. With merchant bankers (assorted) and the entree…..
111. She was as po-faced as always.
Did Brown actually say to Marr; “I’m a pretty ordinary guy”??????
Didn’t Tone try that one in 1997?
As far as Gelnrothes goes, I think tey again we’re seeing Labour being overstated. Not all those that say they intend voting Labour will actually bother doing so.
109
Scorched earth. Gordo will do everything possible to stuff an incoming Tory Govt, Its in the nature of the man. Doing the right thing for the country, never, doing the right thing for Gordon YUP.
At least one will have the satisfaction of knowing he will go down in history as the most loathed PM ever.
Browns problem which is why he is bad at elections and being prime minister is that he can not deviate from a pre prepared text . As a result he comes across v badly . In his Marr interview he made the same statement about international crisis , milk, eggs, gas bills , tough decisions , testing times etc etc in response to almost every question . Andrew Marr should have cut him off and said we have heard that before . He has to be able to think on his feet- that goes for Marr too . The difference with TB is huge - GB could get away with it as chancellor because you are not in the public eye and can answer questions with lists of economic data - but as PM is is no good . I think he knows this which is why i think he will not lead labour into the next election but decide himself to step down when defeat is a certainty - that is not now - maybe next summer if the polls are still as bad . That is where you should have your money in the leader exit markets in my opinion
Reasonable interview with Marr this morning as anyone watching with an open mind would accept.
106 Jan. Reagan broke out after the first debate from a close race and won going away and Gore closed on Bush strongly in 2000. So I’m not too sure 4/5% is decisive at this stage and I wouldn’t be too surprised if McCain narrowed leading into the first debate.
121, loathed is only bad in the present. He’ll go down as criminally incompetent, which is worse. Thatcher may be disliked by many (and liked by many too) but she’ll always be respected.
122, perhaps. He may cling to the comfort blanket of 1992. A bad economy, an unpopular government, yet Major still won.
Naturally, that is a false hope. Cameron isn’t Kinnock, and Brown isn’t as likeable or as brave (leadership election) as Major.
An interesting side-story to all the by-elections going on recently is the repeated reports of Labour’s canvassing returns being basically non-existent. This is perhaps not totally surprising coz these are extremely safe seats but it highlights a big problem (similar to the problem that the Tories had in ‘97) that any victory could be magnified by years of neglect of constituency electorates.
We have examples of Labour MPs who work their patches extremely hard (obvious example for this site of Nick Palmer) but safe seats just work very differently. MPs in safe seats for many years will have got complacent and many are out-of-touch with what their electorates want (as opposed to what they wanted 20 years ago).
The Nicks of this world will be overwhelmed through no fault of their own, and a soft underbelly will be quickly exposed, as incumbent MPs find themselves up against enthusiastic opponents who will be much more in tune with their voters.
118
Whatever happened to Saddam’s super gun?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Babylon
Re: all the Andrew Marr comments. The problem with Marr is that he is so lazy to do any research into what Brown has stated in previous interviews and compare them to the OS facts. If Marr could be bothered to do it then he would be far more effective an interviewer. That is why that crude BJ cartoon of Marr & Brown following last years infamous “no election” interview was so apt.
123 Open, dont you mean vacant…
122. Exactly, he just kept saying the same things over and over again. You get no sense that he is listening to anybody. He is unable and incapable of chaning. Labour CANNOT go into an election with him as leader. How on earth would he fair when face to face with Paxman and the British public? He won’t be able to keep spewing out the same mantra over and over again during an election campaign. Sooner or later he’d come into a situation where he’d be forced to deviate from the script and he’d be layed bare for all to see. The PLP simply have to bite the bullit and get rid of him, this can’t go on.
The mega poll was interesting and confirmed some opinions that have been expressed here, while confounding others.
As we expected, the Conservatives are doing worse than average in Scotland, and the anti-Labour vote has gone to the SNP. Surprisingly, perhaps, they’re underperforming in London (although I’m sure they’ll settle for winning seats like Ealing North, and Poplar & Limehouse). The Conservative advance in the North West has been matched by good local election results, while their underperformance in West Yorkshire has also been demonstrated in local elections (and I’m sure they’d settle for winning 12 of the 22 seats).
There’s nothing surprising about a strong Conservative performance in the South (outside London) but no reason I can think of the big swings in their favour across the Midlands and the North East (apart from Newcastle). The strong swing in Wales has been pressaged by good performances in local elections, and the Assembly, but winning 15 out of 40 seats would still be an outstanding result, on a par with 1983.
There is some brittleness in Conservative support. There are a small number of voters who like Cameron, but don’t really identify with the Conservatives, and could be tempted back to either Labour or Lib Dems, but they’re not very numerous.
Labour are, barring a very strange accident, doomed. But they can mitigate the scale of their defeat. A move leftwards may make it certain that they lose swing voters, but the poll indicates it will motivate their base to come out and vote. It could make the difference between winning 160 seats, as this poll indicates, or 210 seats, from which it would be much easier to come back into the game. None of the regional trends offers any comfort to Labour, though.
The Lib Dems will clearly benefit from the incumbency effect. Although a net loss of 18 to the Conservatives would be a blow, it’s about half the loss they’d suffer on a uniform swing. Historically, 44 seats is quite a good score for them. And there’s potentially better news. They’re aren’t doing that well in the Labour/Lib Dem marginals, in this poll, but if they can hammer home the message relentlessly in these seats that they, and they alone, can beat Labour, they can maybe get above 50. The poll shows that in Lib Dem/Con. marginals, the votes of people who would otherwise vote Labour are enormously important to them, and a rightward shift may cost them this support.
48. Stuart, the 2005 majorities in Moray and Berwick, Roxburgh etc. are about the same so both would have to be included in the poll, or neither.
By the way, the poll takes 2005 as the base line, so don’t get too excited about Dunfermline and West Fife, either.
Derek Draper
If the best he can do is go on about Tories and call Osbourne *Gideon*, does not say a lot for Labour. That is just pathetic! Crikey, if your first name was Gideon, you would display poor judgement by not changing it to George!
122. The Labour Party has a problem in that Gordon is very good at getting to the top of the Labour Party and staying there. The Blair bed blocking incident aside.
The problem is that he isn’t very good at the whole Chancellor/PM bit. It is interesting to note that some of the challengers for Brown (such as The Harperson) ideal candidates for Labour Leader, given that electorate, but poison otherwise.
The tory revival began with the leadership election. The sight of a party openly selecting it’s leader dumbfounded the political class, and seemed to impress the electorate at large. The press tried “Tory internal warfare”, but it didn’t really fly. The candidates (with some minor exceptions) didn’t sling mud or try and ya-boo their opponents. I wonder how much arm twisting by the party grandees went on to get them to play nice? The final round of Cameron vs Davis played very well - two different visions but in the end the defeated candidate went to work for the victor. The idea of the whole membership voting on the choice of the parliamentary party seemed to resonate with the public, and with the nature of the political system.
In my opinion that the Conservative Leadership Election of 2005 was the most successful leadership campaign in this country that I have heard of. Successful in terms of picking a candidate who revolutionised a party - but others such elections have done similar things. But the manner of the election also gave the party a massive boost.
Surely this is a lesson that Labour should take from the Tories?
Thoughts?
“He’ll go down as criminally incompetent, which is worse. Thatcher may be disliked by many (and liked by many too) but she’ll always be respected”
Garbage! I’d stick to the Morris Dancing…..it makes you look more intouch
131. Sean, any reason you can think why the Tories are underperforming in London?
Has Gordon Brown ever been interviewed by Paxman? I can’t recall such an occasion.
&nb