Did Deborah tell them about the “Golden Polling Rule”
September 23rd, 2008
Why Labour should always assume the worst from the polls
This is Deborah Mattinson - Labour’s polling advisor who was part of conference session at the weekend on the polls trying to make the case that Cameron has “..yet to seal the deal”.
I don’t know about that but the lesson from polling history is that Labour’s default position should be that the most accurate poll is the one with the party in the least favourable position - what I term “The Golden Rule”.
Remember Glasgow East in July. Two polls showing Labour leads of 14% and 17%. Labour lost.
Remember Crewe & Nantwich in May. Two pollsters did surveys showing that Labour would lose - but in each case the margin predicted was lower than the outcome.
Remember the London Mayoral Election. Four pollsters carried out surveys and three suggested that it was neck and neck between Labour’s Ken and Boris. The fourth had Boris ahead by what turned out to be the precise margin of victory.
Remember the Blaenau Gwent by-election in June 2006. The only poll had Labour regaining the seat with a margin of 12%. The independent, Dai Davies, won by a margin of 9%
Remember the 2005 general election. All the pollsters bar one had Labour with a bigger vote lead than was actually achieved. The one exception, NOP for the Independent, got it precisely right and then got dropped by the paper.
Remember the Hartlepool by election in September 2004. The one poll during the campaign had Labour a whopping 33% ahead. The eventual winning margin was 6.5%.
Remember the 2004 London Mayoral race. Two pollsters did surveys - the one with Labour in the least favourable position got it almost precisely right.
Remember the 2004 Euro elections. Two firms did firms both of them overstating Labour’s eventual position.
Remember the 2001 general election. Labour won with a 9.3% lead on votes. None of the pollsters had this in single figures and one campaign poll had the party 30% ahead.
I could go on but the message is the same. Anybody advising Labour on polling has to make the default position that the survey showing the party doing the worst has proved to be the most accurate.
The next occasion where this will be put to the test again is the Glenrothes by election. A weekend poll had Labour and the SNP on 43% each. My money will be against Labour.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Perhaps Gordon’s standing ovation will be delivered in 67 portions throughout the speech, like Ceausescu when he was re-elected for another 5 years just before he was overthrown.
——-
I love Prescott’s badge “Go 4th”, the campaign for a fourth Labour term.
In 2006 I used the slogan “May the 4th be with you” on my election leaflets.
——-
Caption competition: “I’ll be clunking more than your fist if you don’t tone it down a bit”
Is it just us lot on here who call him “Millipede”? Or do normal people do it as well?
“All schoolchildren will have access to the internet at home under plans to give families £700 to get online, Gordon Brown will announce.”
Unfortunately, this will not apply to those schoolchildren who will, thanks to the housing crisis, have no home.
1 - the Labour campaign ‘team’ in Glenrothes are planning a “Come 4th” version of Prescott’s badge.
A lot of Labour voters think of themselves as “Labour” rather than Labour voters. There’s an identification thing. They can still think of themselves as “Labour” after they’ve become don’t knows or even anti-Labour in their voting intentions. That may be partly why the polls are wrong. It’s like a reverse version of when the pollsters had to adjust for closet Tories back when the constant beasting from the BBC made them not want to admit to being Tories. There may be a sort of ex-labour loyalty-lag in what people say to the pollsters.
interesting stuff Mike. Never saw it laid out quite that clearly. Thanks.
labour are in a world of pain.
4. That reminds me of the Referendum Party MP George Gardiner, on (or possibly just before) 1997 General Election night, who said in an interview that “I don’t think anybody thinks we can win”. He was still thinking of the Conservative Party as “we” even after he had defected.
Lot of strange (imo) names being put forward as possible leader candidates. My take is:
Blairites aren’t a faction. Blairite is another word for careerist and the actual faction was just Blair and his tiny crew and now they’re gone the “Blairites” are adrift waiting to see which of the actual factions wins.
The Zanu Labour/EUSSR faction obviously want Milliband. I think Johnson would be their second pick but only as a token working class figurehead which I doubt he’s dumb enough to want.
Then there’s your actual socialists. Cruddas is the obvious one from that.
Then there’s the tiny grouplet of what I call original Labour types but there’s only a handful of them so (sadly) they don’t count.
Lastly there’s Straw as a sort of bland compromise.
I don’t see Reid or any of the supposed Blairite “big beasts” having any chance at all. To my mind it will either be the Zanu candidate versus the socialist candidate or Straw as a quick compromise.
Also, it should have happened ages ago if it was going to happen. I think they’re all physically scared of Kim Jong McBean and his crushing handshakes and temper tantrums. I think Prescott is the only one that isn’t physically scared of McBean when he’s being mental so nowadays I can see him lasting for as long as Prescott is loyal.
Hope I’m wrong though cos I hates Labour now and would really like Milliband to become leader.
2-No doubt it will be made available only after completing a morass of incomprehensible forms. Wonder what the take up rate would be?
Guess all those parents plannign to buy a computer for Christmas, etc will now hold off till they get the vouchers.
“Two firms did firms ”
Iknow these pollsters can be a cannibalistic bunch Mike but maybe this comment is a tad over the mark?
Market re-crash is coming, doom, doom, doom.
Curiously enough, the most apposite words on Labour’s polling position came from Bruce Anderson yesterday:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/bruce-anderson/bruce-anderson-brown-must-reach-into-his-soul-and-show-his-true-values-937581.html
“Even after the best polls, even after dinner, David Cameron’s people have never shown signs of complacency. There is an amusing comparison. In about 1999, talking to William Hague, I said: “If you win the next election…” He corrected me: “When I win the next election.” Mr Hague was not to blame.
When you are as beset as he was, you have to whistle to keep up your spirits. It is different now. I recently said: “when you win the next election” to a senior Cameroon, and it was as if I had proposed walking under a ladder to kick a black cat on Friday 13th. The correction was equally firm and instantaneous: “If we win”.”
The consequence of the Tories being in the second position is that Labour are in the first position. They have to whistle to keep up their spirits. Deborah Mattinson should not be spreading gloom or doubt just now.
We, of course, should be looking at matters more dispassionately.
Before the tractor statistics start, quick reality check:
“Low inflation” - Lie - 5 years 2004-8 inclusive 19.68%: 5 years 1993-7 inclusive 14.01%: Current long term inflation is 40% HIGHER than 11 years ago.
“Low interest rates” - Lie - more than a score of developed countries have LOWER interest rates.
“We are best place to ride out the storm” - Lie - Stock Market facts (not opinion):
DOW closed 30 Sep 1997 - 7945.26; Last night - 11015.69 - UP 38.6%
DAX closed 30 Sep 1997 - 4154.90; Last night - 6107.75 - UP 47.0%
CAC closed 30 Sep 1997 - 3008.30; Last night - 4223.51 - UP 40.4%
FTSE closed 30 Sep 1997 - 5224.2; Last night - 5236.2 - DOWN 0.1%
The man is in denial - he can’t help telling lies, because, may the good Lord help him - he actually BELIEVES them.
Sad.
I don’t think he’s lying. I think he believes it. Much scarier.
12 Not wanting to intrude on your general message - but the FTSE number looks to be UP too - albeit a tiny amount.
Typo? 5242.2 perhaps?
Steve Richards distances himself from the idea that Gordon Brown will face a challenge soon:
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-to-dream-or-to-despair-labour-just-cant-decide-938870.html
“No one knows for sure what will happen in the coming months, but I sense that the Cabinet will not move against Brown this year unless he falters badly, which of course is possible. I doubt if a Labour defeat at the Glenrothes by-election will be a trigger for a cabinet revolt. The contest has been written off already. The public mutineers will stir, but they still might not be strong enough to remove their leader. I sense that the key period is moving forward to the European elections next June.
Like Hamlet, the senior ministerial doubters can find always agonising reasons to delay rather than wield the dagger. In my view their reasons for delay in the autumnal whirlwind are sound, at least for now. Shakespeare’s play is a long one. This drama has several acts left.”
This is turning into the test of the pundits’ predictive powers. On the one side, we have Jackie Ashley. On the other, we have Steve Richards. Neatly positioning herself halfway between is Anne McEvoy. Still less daringly, we have David Aaronovitch and Polly Toynbee telling us that Gordon Brown should go, but making no direct prediction. Newspaper columnists, like politicians, have track records.
Home Secretatu on Sky
“we are listening to people”
Anchor ” no your not, your not even listening to me”
Made my morning
Are those stock market figures really true? Incredible if so.
14
5192
yesterday they called it flat and I piled in at the open on the on short, very nice.
US bailout will cost $$$$$$$$$, = weak dollar= high oil. Bad things are a’comin.
8. Only available in England, and doesn’t include the all important continuing broadband access costs, another pointless waste of money, though it may mean some cheap second-hand PC’s will be available on E-Bay. The screens/monitors will of course be 42″ Plasma’s which will be retained.
18
Lokks that way, for starters
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/3064612/Asian-shares-follow-Wall-Street-down.html
“Goldman Sachs said the brief rally in Asian banking stocks would be halted by “a second wave of US problems still ahead”.
2.
“All” schoolchildren? Not all schoolchildren in the “United” Kingdom.
This a classic case of Brown saying “this country” as a euphimism for England, because he is physically incapable of uttering the words ‘England’ or ‘English’, which is a tad ironic as he is the de facto first minister of England.
‘Brown excludes Scots from £300m flagship scheme’
Downing Street made it clear the new one-off Educational Technology Allowance, worth up £700 per family, to be announced in Mr Brown’s keynote address to Labour’s Manchester conference will be paid for out of savings at the Whitehall Department for Children, Schools and Families whose remit is limited to England.
Scottish observers were staggered that he planned to make a computer scheme that does not apply in Scotland the biggest eye-catching initiative in his speech – particularly as the next serious challenge he faces is a by-election in the former Labour-held seat of Glenrothes, Fife, where polls predict a disaster for Labour.
One ministerial aide said yesterday that it would be “destabilising” for Labour if the uncertainty over Mr Brown’s position was left unresolved until next June’s local and European elections.
Eric Joyce [MP for Falkirk], who has the unpaid government post of parliamentary private secretary to Business Secretary John Hutton, told Channel 4: “I really wouldn’t want to see eight or nine months of uncertainty.”
http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/852181?UserKey=
‘Internet for poor is PM’s big idea – but not in Scotland’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2450902.0.Internet_for_poor_is_PMs_big_idea_but_not_in_Scotland.php
18 This quote seems apposite to both the economy - and to Labour’s polling:
“The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
The Great Crash: 1929
Marquee - thanks - FTSE close 30 Sep 97 = 5244.2, not 5224.2. Silly me!
16.
… a classic!!
Simon Hoggart seems to have got it:
First Darling -
“Alistair Darling unleashed upon us the power of positive pessimism. Things were terrible, the chancellor told us. The only good news was this: things are better now than they will be soon.
It was all perfectly dreadful. We faced tough challenges, unprecedented problems, extraordinary and turbulent times. Financial institutions on their knees. Crises … shocks to the system … nothing would ever be the same again. People wondering if they would be in work, and how they could ever pay the bills. Families reduced to eating their own children to save on school uniforms. (I made that up, but it does catch the general mood.)”…”The conference didn’t quite know how to cope with all this. They’re used to the chancellor gloating about how wonderful everything is, and how they live in an Elysium created by Gordon Brown.”
Then Miliband -
“By contrast, the foreign secretary, David Miliband, was almost a happy bunny. Labour was going to win a fourth term “and prove the fatalists wrong!” Mr Miliband was never going to attack Gordon Brown,….”……”I was reminded of a Chinese dissident at a show trial during the Cultural Revolution, dementedly praising Chairman Mao before being taken away to be shot.”
Full piece:
http://tinyurl.com/42sez7
40% differences are an amazing amount. one good poster campaign on the issue could bury Gordon for good. The difference on UK based pension funds must be immense!
This computer thing will most likely never happen but if it does, watch out for vouchers/nicked pc’s being flogged in pubs or ebay.
Stupid idea, should just increase spending on internet access at the library, my library is nearly always full and you have to book.
Hampstead by election in two days, the lib dem girl is campaigning like mad, she might get my vote.
I laughed out loud - bitterly - when I read the featured quote from David Aaronovitch:
“I’ll risk my reputation, for what that’s worth, and predict that capitalism has more of a future than Brown.”
This from the man that wrote:
“I was never in favour of this war mainly because of the threats of terrorism or WMDs. Getting rid of Saddam (and therefore the myriad afflictions of the Iraqi people) was enough. But the weapons were the pretext on which the invasion was sold to a lot of people in this country, and was attempted to be sold to the people of the world… If nothing is eventually found, I - as a supporter of the war - will never believe another thing that I am told by our government, or that of the US ever again.”
and who has spent the last five years backtracking from that statement. As I said in my last post, newspaper columnists have track records too.
12 Wonder why your comparison didn’t start from 2003…
26 - In the words of the placard in the late 70s: “4% of nothing is still nothing: we want 12%”.
21. as the P and J said
“The computer scheme will be piloted in two English local authority areas this year but not introduced fully until 2010 and 2011.”
So it’s not even real money as it won’t be introduced until Labour have disappeared into the the election abyss.
Maybe the presentation should have gone something like this:
“If we draw an analogy to the bombing raids of World War II, the good news is that Labour are facing only one bomber.
The bad news is that it’s called Enola Gay … “
‘Gray stakes his reputation on winning in Glenrothes’
http://news.scotsman.com/uk/Gray-stakes-his-reputation-on.4516852.jp
What reputation? Very, very few voters have ever even heard of him. And those that have heard of him think he is a complete numptie.
- … his five-minute address – delivered early yesterday morning to a poorly attended conference hall…
That line really says all you need to know about Iain Gray’s status in the British Labour Party.
- … made no policy announcements…
Quelle surprise!
- He said Labour’s ousting from government at Holyrood last year “still hurts…
HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA…. HA!!
God, I just love a bit of good old Schadenfreude.
- SNP MSP and chief whip Brian Adam said… “Iain Gray is facing another electoral disaster for his party and himself, as an analysis shows he would lose his own seat at the next Scottish Parliament elections.”
Oh joy!
28.
“newspaper columnists have track records too.”
Aaronovitch is from the Slipman-Finkelstein-Phillips-Hitchens school of “I have a desperate need to be important and spread my opinions about the world to the world mind you I haven’t really got a consistent thought in my head but I can generate drivel with an intense look on my face whichever Party or philosophy I support today” school of political commentary. The only thing these people are better than is an ‘Andrew’ (Marr, Pierce, Neill, liver salts, Prince).
16, I do love it when ournalists actually gave politicians the hard time they deserve (if they do deserve it). It should happen more often. I still remember Boulton savaging her immediately after the non-election was called off.
28, what a berk that man is.
29. Astroturf?
32 And why the Labour Campaign of villifying a lightweight Cameron - sending a Little Boy to do a man’s job - might not be entirely wise!
FTSE down 10, gonna short again.
!.
“Prescott’s badge “Go 4th””
Because, despite his practice with Tracy he still doesn’t consistently know how to multiply? I imagine ‘jilted’ John P would take more than a passing a fancy to the ‘Golden Poll’ at the top of this column.
36. Paranoid Nat?
32.
“it’s called Enola Gay … “”
You could never name a big burm that these days! Specially in Greece.
40. Deliciously happy Nat.
In these dark and uncertain times, it’s good to see our columnists doing our best to give us some light relief:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/23/labourconference.edballs
I didn’t know Martin Kettle was capable of such finely judged satire. He can’t be serious, can he?
33.
Meanwhile, on another planet live Daily Record journalists:
‘Gray In Blast At ‘Posturing’ Nats’
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/news-feed/2008/09/23/gray-in-blast-at-posturing-nats-86908-20749165/
- As the Record yesterday revealed he would…
Quelle surprise! Of course they knew what he would say the day before: the Daily Record wrote the speech for him. The Daily Record and John Smith House are just two wings of the same organisation.
- Gray was careful to introduce himself by his formal title as the “leader of Labour in the Scottish parliament”.
HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA… HA!!
43, as we have seen with Brown and Labour, it seems madness has become contagious of late.
I wonder, in response to the article, whether Labour really are aware of the golden rule. Surely they must be, as this is a key part of their trade?
41 - That wasn’t the name of the bomb but the name of the plane. The two bombs were named, Big Boy and Fat Man… which would have their own problems nowadays!
Is Lindsay Roy trying to set an all-time record by being the most invisible candidate in the history of UK by elections?
We have heard not a peep, not a cheep, not a chirp, not even a note from the man since the day he was selected, several weeks ago. He has been utterly, totally and completely absent. He may or may not be the world’s best rector, but he is a piss-poor politician. Of that there is not one scintilla of doubt.
Have Labour had a full frontal lobotomy? Why on earth did they select The Invisible Man as their candidate in perhaps the most important by election of the last 30 years? Oh yeah, I forgot: they didn’t select him. Gordon Brown did. Jonah strikes again…
47, is this Roy fellow the candidate for Labour in Glenrothes?
I suspect Labour has simply slid into such a quagmire of dithering and doubt it has developed a deathwish. When the Tories tore themselves apart they were at least fighting for something. Now Labour seems to be killing itself with apathy.
If I could liken it to wolves: the Tories bit and scratched and occasionally killed each other to get the meat. Labour is simply not eating. They’re starving from apathy. All they care enough to fight about is Brown. As someone here pointed out in a very good post (sorry, can’t recall the name) the Cairns resignation was not over policy but popularity.
Gordon’s big day, and I’m sure I speak on behalf of most Conservative supporters in wishing him the best of British today in making the speech of his life to save his job through to 2010. If you’re reading Gordo (assuming someone has connected you up to the old interweb thingy, at a cost of £700 presumably), then give it all you’ve got, you are surrounded by pygmies who are even better at bottling it than you are. Don’t let them bring you down, dazzle ‘em with the tractor figures today and secure your Premiership right through to the GE. You are in all our thoughts today…
(Unless of course the Labour Party really would select Miliband over all other contenders. In which case - tank it big style, Gordon!
)
46
errr It was actually, ‘Little Boy’ and ‘Fat man’
46 Little Boy, not Big Boy.
http://www.atomicarchive.com/History/twocities/hiroshima/page7.shtml
In which you will learn that the “Enola Gay” was named after the pilot’s mum. All I can say is that his mum must have packed one hell of a slap!
.
God, I hate this damned Labour government.
Hilliers, of the Home office has said:
“She also said the scheme might be too far advanced for the Tories to “unpick” if they came to power in 2010.”
“”There isn’t an easy way to unpick this scheme, quite rightly because it is invaluable.”"
Just as Brown is scorching the economic earth they’re trying to do the same to civil liberties.
From: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7630088.stm
In light of Mr Roy’s Macavity impersonation, I assume that BBC North Britain (another branch of the same organisation as John Smith House and the Daily Record) will not be entertaining us with a televised candidates’ debate, à la Glasgow East? Peter Grant would make mincemeat of the man. Cripes, even Maurice Golden is going to look like a political giant when contrasted to Lindsay Roy.
50 - oops… oh well it’s a long time since i cared about WWII history, it isn’t that interesting a period.
49. I agree, lets see another barnstorming snorefest like last year that will rally the faithful, then watch as Cameron outdoes him easily at the tory conference.
49 Helpul Hints for a Leader’s Speech #37
Remember, Gordon: smile a lot. Folks like it when you do that…
52 - Someone should remind Ms Hillier of the age old saying “Where there’s a will, there’s a way”.
FTSE tanking.
Carling Cup tonight, punter’s graveyard ermmmmmmmm.
55. Its all about media reaction, last year Browns speech was considered an utter masterpiece (BBC etc), as the narrative was about how towering the wonderful Brown was.
It was only some time after that the commentators seem to realise that it was a stinker. I suppose, a bit like his budgets, which used to take some time to unravel.
I believe in personal contrary betting. I bet with my head against my heart.
49 Thus I can echo Bob Sykes sentiments and say that my Conservative heart wishes Brown well to hang in there and carry on the good work of destroying the Labour party. My betting head says that alas he will not and Brown will soon be gone.
My heart says that Mike’s article should of course not be read by Labour MPs lest they realise that they have been mislead by the Labour pollsters saying “tis only a few flesh wounds”.
52. Hilliers, of the Home office has said:
“She also said the scheme might be too far advanced for the Tories to “unpick” if they came to power in 2010.”
“”There isn’t an easy way to unpick this scheme, quite rightly because it is invaluable.””
She needs to be taken quietly to one side and given a lesson in the constitutional provision that no government may bind a successor.
52 There is a word for these people…. I have to belive that the ever-encroaching tide washing away our civil liberties can be stopped. But maybe that just makes me the Cnut….
O/T - Message to Planet Labour - stop spending money on imbecile schemes.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/7630021.stm
Not sure if anyone has already mentioned this, but a tidbit from Milliband in his specch yesterday.
‘Gordon, you have been a great leader etc etc’ followed by
‘And we should remember that as we move forward’
Direct implication being goodbye and thanks for all the fish Gordon - deliberate juxtaposition in his owrding of the past for Gordon and the future for Labour (and presumably, David Miliband PM)
63, they’re damned fools. And the BBC are damned collaborators.
“Will free tickets encourage young adults to go to the theatre? Should theatres have more productions tailored for younger audiences?”
No question of wasting taxpayers’ money giving away tickets when the public finances are dodgy already and likely to get worse.
52, I like the way the report tells us how she was inspired by the former communist country, Hungary. Old habits die hard. Maybe a trip to Afghanistan to learn about female empowerment in diverse communities?
29 - tres - happy for you to publish the 2003 figures. I chose 1997 because it covers the whole of Gordon’s 11 years in control of the nation’s finances. Why would you choose 2003?
48. Morris Dancer - “is this Roy fellow the candidate for Labour in Glenrothes?”
You see! No-one… not even political anoraks… has even heard of the man. And Glenrothes has barely been out the news for a single day the last two months!!!!
For your delectation, we present… TA-RA….Mr Lindsay Roy, 59, newly of Kirkcaldy parish:
‘Profile: Labour’s Glenrothes candidate’
http://www.politics.co.uk/features/opinion-former-index/legal-and-constitutional/profile-labour-s-glenrothes-candidate-1238892.htm
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4656918.ece
http://www.fifelabour.org.uk/lindsay_roy
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41221000/jpg/_41221560_lindsayroy203.jpg
68.
That first link is broken. Here it is:
http://www.politics.co.uk/features/opinion-former-index/legal-and-constitutional/profile-labour-s-glenrothes-candidate-1238892.htm
Try again…
http://tinyurl.com/3fv5ro
First link is dead.
Hmm. I remember that he was Brown’s old head, but his name slipped my mind (if it was ever there).
71. “Brown’s old head”
Has he got a new one?
Robin Harper stepping down as co-leader of the Scotish Greens.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7630842.stm
FTSE dropping sharlply this morning currently -77
Not going to be a good backdrop for Brown to give his speech is it?
As he is only a couple of years older than Gordon I dont think he was his old head! Head of his old school I think.
54
I can’t believe that anyone thinks that one of the most important periods in the history of mankind, ‘WW2′ isn’t interesting.
Morning all, surely Labour must realise it is in deep shit when even its toady supporters in the media are turning on it.
Last night Paxo, with Ed Millbland sitting next to him discussed with a colleague the fact David Millibland had apparently made the Michael Heseltine comparison and then calmly put it to young Ed who looked as though he was going to burst into tears at any moment.
This mroning Eamon Holmes a real Labour toadie bluntly asked Jacqui Smith if the Government’s aim is to bankrupt the country so that no other government could possibly come in and clear up the mess left behind.
For 2 years now I have said we are in the 1974-79 era all over again and with Darling’s speech yesterday I just sense the General Secretary of the IMF is getting out his notepad to write a “Dear Alistair” letter. Bank of England issues another 20 billion into the market this morning. how much longer can this go on without them printing money or devaluing the pound?
No more boom and bust! Right Gordon, from you it is just Fantasy and Bust Bust Bust!!
76 - Importance doesn’t mean it is interesting. The problem I have with it is that almost too much is known about it. There is little room for the meat and drink of historical study, evidence based analysis of the event. I much prefer more ancient periods of history because the documentary sources are less numerous and therefore you can utilise them and build a case. If you try to build a case about WWII that doesn’t fit the established preconception you are blown out of the water before you even start. So no I’m not interested. That isn’t to diminish it’s import on modern life but just an academic choice so to speak.
Hello My Lovelies !!!!!!!!!!!
Only six weeks from now ….. Sigh …..
Back to the meat and tatties ……
My old Confederate pollster chums Civitas published their latest local North Carolina poll last night, reported by ukpaul - tied at 45%. This is the first time that Obama has not been behind with Civitas, a GOP pollster.
Usually they undersample AA by 3/4 points. Not yesterday, at 21% it’s still a picky 1% underpoll and 5 points adrift from the 2004 AA election turnout, but progress …. Hooray !!!!!
http://www.nccivitas.org/files/Sept%20Pres%20CTs.pdf
“Up to 95 publicly-funded theatres across England are to offer free tickets to young adults as part of a £2.5m government-funded scheme.”
And just why should people who can perfectly well afford nights out ‘clubbing’, binge-drinking, iPods, mobile phone bills the size of the National Debt, wardrobes full of the latest fashions, pizzas and take-away meals by the lorry-load be given ‘free’ tickets to the theatre at my expense?
Just so that they can munch, chatter and drink during Hamlet with the feet up on the seats in the row behind me?
73. Errr… I notified pb.com of that several days ago. In fact, not only did I post about Harper stepping down, but I also notified you of his replacement: Patrick Harvie MSP.
Please keep up.
Polly Toynbee thinks Labour should “Ask what you would do if you could run the country with a large majority for 18 months? Looking at likely annihilation, Labour could seize these last days to do all it has failed to do, make good broken promises, undo errors and dare to ignore all focus groups and media. There is little to lose, and that brings its own liberation. Do whatever feels right, for its own sake regardless, and lessen regrets that will dog Labour for a decade to come.”
On the suggested shopping list.
“Start with political reform. Declare with honesty that begging for money from eccentric and often corrupt rich donors is a blight on all parties that has caused dangerous political distrust and cynicism. Apologise and bring in state financing, parties raising nothing extra beyond ordinary membership subscriptions - including trade union funds. It’s a cheap price to pay for probity.
In the wilderness, Labour will regret most that it never secured a fair voting system. Abandoning a deal with the Lib Dems in the hubris of success was not just shortsighted for Labour, it was a tragedy for future good government. So bring in proportional representation right away, ignore howls of protest from the Tories and reform the Lords in the same bill.”
Words fail when it comes to this journalist!!!
So just move the burden of party funding onto the taxpayers at a time when taxes and debt are already high and the Labour party is broke, and bring in PR without any warning because Labour are heading for a big defeat in FPTP. Considering Labour’s record in the last 11 years on both these issues, her bared cheek knows no bounds.
81 Sorry, the Beeb was just running it on their “breaking news” ticker.
Maybe he had second - then third - thoughts, that you hadn’t told us about?!?
82 - If Labour even thought about changing the voting system now that they are in trouble, there would be a revolution and I’d be on the front row of the grid!
77. Easterross, have you seen the Scottish sub-set of the Yougov poll?
It’s SNP 34%/Lab 24%/Con 24%/LD 17%/Grn 2%.
The sample size is 213.
Electoral Calculus for the Yougov subsample gives:
SNP 31 seats, Labour 10, Lib Dems 10, Conservatives 8.
(numbers courtesy of Alan J on last night’s thread)
I thought you’d like those Scottish Tory numbers!!
If Labour changed the voting system at this time in the way Polly Toynbee suggests in order to stay in power there would be HUGE protests & probably riots. And i would happily be there at the front of the protests.
84, quite. PR is deeply flawed and this government has no credibility to bring it in.
Brown on at 2pm ?
How not to manage expectations:
Mr Straw insisted Labour would win the upcoming Glenrothes by-election.
http://www.24dash.com/news/Central_Government/2008-09-23-Gordon-Browns-conference-speech-is-hardest-test-of-his-political-life
Do you get the impression that Straw is building up Brown for The Big Fall?
82 - That article is misdirection. Read the last paragraph to see what it’s really about.
89, Labour have been typically good at managing expectations (electoral apocalypse such as local results aside). Unless they have very strong reasons for saying that it does seem less than helpful to Gordon. Could even prompt disgruntled Labour voters to stay at home if they think Labour will win.
Conference schedule (treasurers report should be interesting - wonder if he has been shown the books this year.)
Tuesday 23 September
From 0930
- Rule Changes: Mike Griffiths
- National Executive Committee (NEC) Treasurer’s Report: Jack Dromey
- NEC Auditor’s Report: Mick Leahy
- NEC Membership Report: Joe Mann
- Culture Secretary Andy Burnham
- Communities Secretary Hazel Blears
- Community Heroes Presentation
From 1400
- Prime Minister Gordon Brown
From 1445
- Parliamentary Report
Marquee Mark: my most humble apologies. It is not your fault, but the BBC’s fault. Please see the note at the bottom of the BBC article:
This story was originally published on Saturday 13 September when Mr Harper stood down. It has been republished due to a technical problem.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7630842.stm
It should not have been on their ticker.
Have we had a happy-clappy Nick Palmer update recently on the “love-and-unity fest” in Manchester? Or is the strain even telling on him?
93 Will teach me to read to the bottom of breaking news for the “not really breaking news” disclaimer!!
91. Morris Dancer - “Could even prompt disgruntled Labour voters to stay at home if they think Labour will win.”
Unlikely. What percentage of the population of Fife listens to the Today programme on Radio 4?!?
0.00001% seems about right. And that is just cos Grampa Ming tunes in occasionally with his morning cocoa…
89. The overwhelming feeling I got when listening this morning to Straw - one of Labour’s best media peformers - was boredom. I switched off after a couple of minutes. Labour simply has nothing interesting to say about anything.
Do we really face two more years of this? The stench of decay by 2010 is going to be unbearable.
Labour ’still smarting from defeat by the SNP’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/scotland/article4806284.ece
Ha ha ha. Mr Gray is so well known, with his wonderful “reputation”, that The Times of London cannot even be arsed to spell his name correctly. Tut tut. The Grauniad would be proud of them.
Betfair market on GE date has seen a shortening of the price for Q1 next year (now 4s) - I would go out on a limb and suggest that that date is only possible if Brown is removed.
Will this market change today ? 2010 is the favourite at 1.57.
97 - For the umpteenth time, Labour has less than 2 years before their time runs out.
99. Sorry I meant 4/1 (5s)
100. It seems like an eternity…
I’ve just put £20 on at Ladbrokes at 5/2 that Gord’s ovation will last longer than 8 minutes. A collective act of unity like this is really all that’s left to them - and anyway I sense that many delegates deeply believe that they owe Brown something even if now they recognise that his time his up. What better way of showing it than keeping the clapping going for eight minutes?
100, unless of course they discover Cameron’s a terrorist, arrest him, form a GNU with Cleggnut and postpone elections until 2150.
What?
It’s no madder than pretending we’re in good shape to weather the economic storm, or that ID cards will be 100% secure and very useful to anyone but Big Brother.
103, haha, my eyes missed the word ‘ovation’ when I scanned that:p
Why has Gordon been given the after lunch slot? I always thought that it was the worst time - by 2.30 half the hall could be asleep
She obviously hasn’t told jack Straw yet, nor is he a fan of this site apparently. He confidently told Jim Naughtie this morning that he could show from the history of post war opinion polls that it was not certain that the Tories would win the next election.
Many here would say that polling hisotry shows otherwise.
Labour’s business secretary John Hutton, meanwhile, warned that the lights would go out in Scotland under SNP plans to scrap nuclear power.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/2008/09/23/britain-will-come-through-downturn-vows-darling-86908-20749162/
Yeah, yeah, yeah, we’ve heard it all before. Will the last one to leave the country please switch off the lights etc etc etc, blah, blah, blah, ad nauseum.
Message for the Labour Party: NO-ONE IS LISTENING. We have heard your scare stories for so long now that it is like water off a duck’s back.
Oh yeah, and you also smell! And Kenny snogged your girlfriend last weekend. And you’ve got puss dribbling out of yer plukes. Yuk!!
103. Talk about Killing someone with kindness!
I have only ever been to a couple of political rallies but that Clapping is stupid. 30 seconds should do! 8 Minutes plus….Mad!
I would refuse to do it, indeed if your 8 minutes works out it will be interesting if the TV camaras don’t cut to somebody sitting on their hands, someone asleep or someone eating a pork pie!
79. I will be glad when its all over but a fascinating election nonetheless. Nothing can save McCain, I fear, if Wall Street continues to crash. That’s just an iron rule of politics.
But… I think there are rays of light for Mac right now. Firstly that Ras has him up two in VA. I’m no longer bothered by the SUSA poll after seeing Geraghty’s commentary on it:
“No offense to the fine folks at Survey USA, but I decided to go back and check their last poll in Virginia’s 2006 Senate race. They had Jim Webb ahead of George Allen, 52-46. The final results were Webb’s 49.6 percent to Allen’s 49.2 percent, a margin of 9,329 votes out of 2.37 million cast. SUSA had the state’s marriage amendment polling at 42 percent support,and it ended up passing with 57.1 percent of the vote.”
And the main ray of light is PA. Most polls have Obama up by 2 or 3. I’ve read a lot about PA and I think it’s going red. It’s one state where the Bradley effect may show up and perhaps more importantly, the Philly area whose Dem lean usually carries Dems over the top is disarranged a bit by Kwame Kilpatrick and the effective 527 tying Obama to him there.
McCain also doing well in NH, but to me that doesn’t pass the smell test, same way blue VA does not.
The Jack W “base for the race” starts with Kerry +. What McCain has to do is forget about defending NV, CO, etc for a minute and try to ensure that Obama doesn’t hold all the Kerry states. Right now I think it’s possible.
could all come down to the debates.
108 - “Oh yeah, and you also smell! And Kenny snogged your girlfriend last weekend. And you’ve got puss dribbling out of yer plukes. Yuk!!”
You applying for a job as SeanT’s warm-up act, Stuart?
112. I dunno. Is it well reimbursed?
Good spot Mike.
The published ICM figures for Glasgow East were:
Labour: 47%
SNP: 33%
A 14% Labour lead.
But the raw unweighted figures were:
Labour: 43%
SNP: 41%
A 2% Labour lead.
The actual result was:
SNP: 43.1%
Labour: 41.7%
A 1.4% SNP lead.
For the recent ICM poll for Glenrothes the poll’s topline figure was:
Labour: 43%
SNP: 43%
Even Stevens.
Yet the raw unweighted figures are:
Labour: 39%
SNP: 50%
An 11% SNP lead.
So which is closer?
109 - The problem is that applause becomes quasi-involuntary at these things. Conference halls exist in a vacuum. I was at the infamous IDS speech and remember having myriad conversations as we rushed to exit the about how great the conference had been and how impressive IDS was. Then we got outside and only after about 30 minutes of drinking in the conference bar did it hit everyone that it wasn’t that good.
112 - no. But the fringe benefits appear to be rewarding.
re 2 pace Marie Antoinette - “Let them eat silicon chips” if they haven’t got the money to eat or heat perhaps.
114. Then we got outside and only after about 30 minutes of drinking in the conference bar did it hit everyone that it wasn’t that good.
115. Mmmm…. in that case: thanks but no thanks. I have a beautiful wife to whom I am very happily married. And my alcohol indulging days are becoming but a dim memory. And I have never bought sex nor been to Thailand in my life.
SeanT may be a wonderfully expressive writer at times, but I do not envy him his lifestyle one iota.
Mike, what I want to know is is there any similar Golden Rule in the US with the Democrats? I have been assuming there is an have been following Rasmussen as my poll as it consistently places the GOP in the best position of all the polls.
According to Politics Home David Miliband on Sky had this to say
He also praised the values of the prime minister saying Gordon Brown had a real determination to improve the country.
He’s a leader with really deep vales and real sense of were the country needs to go and I think you’ll see that today.
I wonder if the vales are as deep as the abyss that Labour and Gordon are in.
118. That reminds me: I do actually have a real life. Cheerio!
I think Milliband’s blown it…
There’s whisperings that after the conference Hutton is going to make a move over market regulation and probably resign, with Purnell supporting him. There is a third person too, but I can’t get a handle on who that is. Hutton will then take up the baton if Brown’s forced out which could block Milliband, as Hutton champions the right.
110-Agree. But Kwame is Detroit - Michigan. But just proves that Obama is still not nailing these bankers (MI and PA).
Obama has been strangely silent about Detroit and Michigan. Will black voters be put off by the “withchunt” of Kwame. Will the unpopular governor of Michigan depress numbers? The former more likely I think.
In any case, it seems strange Obama seems to be paying only marginal time to Michigan and Pennsylvania. Is he so sure of himself he thinks they are in the bag? A loss of either could well be catastrophic.
re 46 and Enola Gay was also the name of Col Tibbs’s (the pilot) mother too.
Gordon sits, brooding at the final table.
This is a “high stakes” moment. He’s not quite all-in but he’s short stacked and it’s still early days in the tournament. In recent rounds he’s collected some easy chips from political non-entities who’ve gone all-in on seven high off-suit. Gordon reflects on this: “what did they think they were doing?” Did they think I’d completely lost it?”. He couldn’t shake the suspicion that it was part of a plot involving at least one of the big guns around the table, designed to destabilise him. And - damn - it was working. He was thinking about the termerity of their challenge and not the hand he had to play.
Where was he? That’s right. Manchester. The Conference. The Final Table. Big Crowds. Focus. People are staring at him - it must be his turn to play. He’s on the button. Harman’s to his left, looking pretty flush. She’s made a smallish bet. Middling pair, he thinks dismissively. Miliband’s next along. He has raised. Brown squints at him through the fug. Aye, he’s a plotter alright. Has the face for it. Suspiciously big pile of chips too. He’s been accumulating. Lost that big game in Russia though, didn’t he. Hmmm. The next chair’s empty. Where’s Johnson? Aah, he’s knocked his stack onto the floor. Brown raises his eyes skyward. Straw’s next. He’ll have folded. What’s this? He’s called! So has Hutton - aye that was expected. Cruddas has called too. Can’t work out his game. Need to watch him. Blears is fiddling with her chips. She looks like she is planning a big move. Hmmm. We’ll deal with that when it happens.
Seven faces stare at Gordon intently. Decision time. The clock seems to have leapt forward fifteen minutes. Does nothing work around here without me? Gordon beckons Balls over. “Promise the people working clocks” he says. Balls looks at Gordon bewildered, pats him on the shoulder and walks away. Gordon looks again at his cards. Jack seven off suit. Decision time. His hand trembles.
Anyone doing a game of buzzword bingo for Brown’s speech?
125 - I reckon ’stability’ and ‘long-term’ will be up there.
Re. this morning’s market developments, note that as I feared yesterday politicians have indeed started to undermine confidence in the Paulson plan by grandstanding and haggling for special interests.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4807583.ece
126 - and “prudence” won’t.
125. “Hard working families”, “stability”, “global crisis”, “Tory spending cuts”, “fairness” etc
126. ‘We are making the right…’ will also be high I bet.
New mortgage approvals figures - down 64% year-on-year…
125 vigilence and ‘this is who I am’ to star
re 52 truly appalling. So Ms Hillier expects every shop to have a card reader and the government will know every time you buy a packet of fags or a can of lager?
No doubt the likes of Nick P will be jumping up and down saying that of course they won’t in which case how will they know the cards are genuine unless they put them through a reader, and what’s the point of biometrics? Are we going to be fingerprinted every time we pop down to the off licence so they can do a visual check wit hthe card.
What utter nonsense from yet another government minister trying to find a reason for these wrtechedly unwanted cards.
Surely “getting on with the job”?
“No more boom and bust. Just bust. I have kept my promise!”:p
118 Go to Thailand some time. It might shift your certainties just a tiny bit!
As Brendan Behan put it “The big difference between sex for money and sex for free is that sex for money usually costs a lot less.”
FTSE re-tank , as called here this morning, will be down 100 during Brown farewell speech.
Going with “difficult times” myself
110 test. Are your toes warmish yet ?? …. No I thought not. I’ve rescinded the heretical burning edict and substituted a thousand lines of :
“My favourite author is seanT and he deserves the Nobel prize for Literature.”
………………
On the US election, you do sound down beat. McCain still has a decent shot but his margins for error are narrowing presently.
Pennsylvania is the 2008 New Jersey, tempting and flattering the GOP only to slap his face with a wet cod on election night. New Hampshire might be tighter than we all think. However the trends are clear - Obama is making more advances in McCain’s battleground states than the reverse.
You are correct about the debates …. Friday !!
Now test, get the quill, ink and parchment out …. “My favourite ….
131. And consumer credit up despite this…hmm.
Miliband could barely contain his delight this morning as Sky followed him around asking about leadership challenges - the more I watch the clip of his speech the more it hammers home he was telling Gordon to go - the wording was so carefully selected - references to Gordon in past tenses, to Labour in future tenses.
We’ve surely got to have “best placed to weather the global financial storm”
I am betting on Gordon giving a good speech, with everybody in the media recording it as a great speech.
Who was the impressionist, often seen on TV around 10-15 years ago, who actually looked like Miliband with close cropped dark hair and an ability to contort his face like rubber? Help me out someone and, no, I’m not thinking of Freddie “Parrot Face” Davies!
142 Until tomorrow, when it will be re-appraised and considered a stinker!
113 In by elections the raw data seemsthe best bet.adfjustments are difficult enough across a national poll and much more subjective ata constutuency level.
rogerh
143. Phil cool?
143 Do you mean Phil Cool?
146 The same, well done Martin - I bet you’ve never seen them together in the same room!
“right long term decisions”
“stability”
“i