Would Labour dare risk a by-election in Geoff Hoon’s seat?
September 24th, 2008
Remember what happened here in the run up to the 1979 election?
With suggestions going the rounds that that Geoff Hoon might replace Peter Mandelson as Britain’s EU commissioner in Brussels should we be preparing ourselves for a by election in his constituency at Ashfield in Nottinghamshire some time next year?
The 2005 result is reproduced above and certainly with current polling and by election performances the Tories would fancy their chances. In fact a failure to win here would not bode well for the general election.
There would also be a uncomfortable historical parallel for Labour. Back in 1977, just two years before Mrs Thatcher came to power in the 1979 general election, there was a by election in the seat that was caused by the sitting Labour MP being given a Brussels job. The Tories took it on a 20% swing.
This time Cameron’s party would require just a 12% swing to scoop up the seat which is well below the 17% that was achieved in Crewe & Nantwich three months ago. However you look at it the omens don’t look good for Labour.
Hoon - who went to the same £10,000 a year public school as Ed Balls - is no stranger to Brussels and was an MEP for ten years.
Maybe letting Peter Mandelson have another five years would be a better option but given what we know of Brown’s relationship with Mandy that probably won’t happen.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Answer - Yes
Isn’t Geoff Hoon on the PoliticsHome/YouGov list of dead Cabinet Ministers walking?
“Maybe letting Peter Mandelson have another five years would be a better option ”
Anything which keeps him out of the country and off our TV screens for even half the year could problably be part-financed by charitable donations!
Who the hell are the Ashfield Independents? Are they are a bunch of old miners committed to an UDI should they be elected?
I can see the attraction for GB leaving PM in place in Rues des Matelots purely to have him inside the tent p!ssing out. Who know what havoc a newly repatriated Mandy, shorn of his EU satrapy would wreak?
Ashfield would be far harder than C&N. It’s not even a top 200 target.
Still no sign of that ICM poll, someone posted that they took part in it last Thursday?
Having done a touch more digging, the new Commission comes together on 1st November 2009. Presumably any by-election would be timed to coincide with the locals/euros to spread other parties’ resources thin (in the hope of retaining it), and to lose the impact of a loss in the wreckage of the otehr results.
If he wants Hoon in the Commission/ out of the way, then I think that is very do-able.
8. ‘other’. Tsk!
I suspect that Brown would try to delay any by election there if he is still in No10. Does anyone know if Hoon has indicated whether he is happy about such a move?
I ask because Iain Dale reported some sort of row between him and Gordon Brown.
It would be interesting to know the background of all the independents.
Eddie Grenfell
An 85-year-old ex-Navy Commander is to stand against the defence secretary in the general election to boost his medal campaign for World War II sailors.
Kate Allsop
Councillor Mansfield Council
Roy Adkins
Local Councillor - independent
Given that Hoon wouldn’t take up his position until June 09, there is no need to rush it. The most obvious date would be on the same day as the Euro elections.
Tory gain
Whilst living in what is now Broxstowe, I actually went to a state school in Hucknall in the Ashfield constituency (not all of us had your breaks in life, Roger). It has not fared well in recent times - and I can certainly see it following Crewe and Nantwich in giving Gordon a kicking. But I can also see a chunk of Labour’s vote going to the BNP, who didn’t have a candidate in C&N, so that muddies the waters - as does the strength of local LibDems councillors. But if Gordon wants to balance out a Glenrothes loss with a Labour hold on the same day, I think he will be in trouble.
Mike thanks for reminding us that the Labour cabinet is stuffed full of public school types as well, lest Roger and others forget.
ConHom reporting that Top Blair aide Matthew Taylor identifies Brown’s fundamental problem of “authenticity”
“Taylor argued that this authenticity issue more than anything else had damaged Brown with voters. This dislike was not to be traced to him being Scottish or brooding, but to a public feeling that Brown does not match up to their desire for a leader who is both authentic and effective.”
Gaz, from previous thread, I was offering you a straight bet that, in my opinion, Labour wouldn’t be ahead in any opinion poll over the next few weeks - as against your assertion that they might.
If you want to complicate this by asking for “odds” I will decline, not least cause I don’t understand “odds”.
Apologies for calling you an astroturfer, though it does occur to me you could be ‘turfing for the Tories: by coming on here to raise expectations of a massive Labour bounce, thus making any eventual bounce look feeble, in reality.
Complex stuff, political blogging.
Afternoon all
The Conservatives start slightly above their October 1974 share while the LDs with 14% aren’t far away from where the Liberals were.
The 10.6% that voted for Independents are the complication - again, add them to Labour and you aren’t a million miles away from October 1974. It goes to show some things don’t change that much.
This gives me a chance to restate my all-time favourite Dennis Skinner jibe, for at least the third time on PB.
Roy Jenkins was making his farewell speech to the PLP on being appointed President of the European Commission. “I leave this party without rancour”, proclaimed Jenkins, who was notorious for his distinctive pronunciation of the letter “r”.
Skinner was quick to intervene: “I thought you were taking Marquand with you.”
It was David Marquand’s resignation as MP for Ashfield, to become Jenkins’ right-hand man in Brussels, that precipitated the famous by-election.
In Ashfield the Lib Dems would be a major factor in any by-election. Ashfield Lib Dems have been ripping Ashfield Labour to pieces in astonishing fashion in the last couple of years, including some of the biggest local election swings in history. They recently took the Council too.
Perhaps it is this divided opposition that makes Labour feel a little bold? The Tories will obviously go for it, because on the basis of being 2nd they cant not do it. But the Lib Dems would run a full-on “to seriously win it from 3rd” by-election campaign, which could lead to a stalemate or even win it outright.
On the subject of Europe*- lots of employment law winging its way over here before Commissioner Spidla and the European Parliament finish up next year.
Agency Working, loss of the Working Time Opt-out (with Labour MEPs likely to vote with the socialist bloc against the wishes of Hutton/McFadden), extension of Parental leave, increased union involvement in European Works Councils, a Pregnant Workers Directive…none too pretty for UK employers.
Important electorally or for betting purposes - not really. Important for the economy (particularly in a slowdown) - yep.
*I appreciate that this may make people glaze over!
14 - So does this make you one of Nick Palmer’s constituents? I hadn’t realised that before. Does he?
14. Yes, the Lib Dems are now the largest party on the council (although I don’t know how the council fits in with the seat) thanks to two by-election pick ups since May last year. The council leader is the candidate as well (up till now the only selected opposition candidate). This could certainly see Labour hold the seat due to split opposition. But I think events in this part of the world recently have shown that the 2005 election result is ‘out of date’.
20. I wondered how long before the Lib Dem fantasising began…
One of the Gordon’s lies from yesterday that wasn’t picked up by the Mail.
‘3 million more jobs’
Who is he trying to fool?
Sam Coates on the timing of the Downing street confirmation of Ruth Kelly’s resignation. 3am: Downing Street confirm Ruth Kelly’s resignation
“Baffling, shambolic. What does it say about the state of the government when Downing Street holds a press conference at 3am in a hotel lobby to announce the resignation of a Cabinet Minister. According those present (in a dereliction of duty, I had already returned back to the hotel) rumours had been rampant after Newnight got wind something was up, so Number 10 decided to press the button.
Unpicking the truth behind Ruth Kelly’s resignation will in part be possible when we have unravelled the mystery of timing - and why it happened on the day it did, overshadowing the warm party reaction to GB’s speech.
The BBC claim other Cabinet colleagues were thinking of joining her, possibly in a co-ordinated attempt to out Brown maybe on reshuffle day”
22 I would have been back then - and know the constituency well (hence going for the Awsworth Dog Rescue in the Cats v Dogs bets) -but have “moved about a bit” since! Currently washed up in Oxfordshire.
Hutton spinning the French Nationalisation of the UK Nuclear industry as good news for all.
10s of 1000s of jobs, billions of income for us
Rejoice, Rejoice!
23 - Yes but in the event of a by-election won’t he be sacked and replaced with someone else?
25 Would that be 3 million more jobs for British workers then, Gordon?
Latest Research 2000/DKos tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 48% .. Barr 2% .. Nader 2%
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/24
26 “possibly in a co-ordinated attempt to out Brown maybe on reshuffle day”
Oust, surely…….!!
Has anyone worked out the Mystery of Miss Kelly yet?
Why was the news of her resignation leaked this morning, and by whom?
Seems very murky to me.
26. ChrisD. Curiouser and curiouser.
26. You half answered by question at comment 33, just as I was writing it. Thankyou.
Very intriguing.
I think this is the first time that I can remember that a reshuffle is unravelling even before it has started.
Johnson is now saying he doesn’t want to be moved.
33 very murky indeed - a Gordy own goal I imagine
Brown is caught in something of a cleft stick with regards to the EU Commissioner role. Nobody really thinks he wants to give Mandelson another term given their past history (despite talk of a rapproachment) but equally giving it to a current MP causing the by-election problem.
Hoon’s seat ought to be safe enough to hold under normal circumstances but in the middle of a bad economic downturn next year? Who knows.
Patricia Hewitt definitely wants the job and thought earlier this year she was going to get it. Gordon may need to mend fences with the Labour sisterhood and her seat is as safe as Hoon’s (Labour since 1931). An alternatives for him, if he cant face reappointing mandelson (which he probably will do in the end) is to appoint a peer or someone from outside parliament.
29. I very much doubt the local party would want to dump the leader of their own council who also happens to be the second youngest leader in the country at 28 & who is a rising star of the party. If they do they’d have a screw loose! He would have to reapply though as is required.
Re Gaz and Sean T’s spat on the lasty thread, How much difference will the £60 tax refund due this month to atone for the 10p tax debacle should one weight in considering the next few opinion polls. Personally I dont think itll make any difference as it will just remind people what a deceitful liar Gordon is (noone will be affected by the 10 tax change…)
36 he also reconfirmed on Sky earlier he will never, ever stand for leader immediately or at any stage in the future for the reasons on record - he is now 100% a dead fish for leadership
In mafia-speak, Labour are “going to the walls”.The NHS and Education will be their buttresses and matresses.
Does Gordon sleep with da fishes ?
36 - anyone with a decent job would not want to be moved.
Gordon could always off the EU job to a LibDem
that would be fun
33.Sean, apparently not a leak, but a press conference by team Brown held at 3 am in a hotel lobby. Why on earth would they do this in the middle of the night just after Brown’s bit speech therefore knocking it off the top spot?
I am getting to cynical these days, I even wondered if it was done to deflect the media away from scrutinising Brown’s speech too closely today after the glowing praise it was given last night on the TV news?
There are no Conservative councillors in Ashfield constituency. The Lib Dem PPC is Cllr Jason Zadrozny. He is the leader of Ashfield District Council and at 27 the youngest Council leader in the country. He won his council seat in a by-election in spectacular style, as you can see below.
Jason Zadrozny Lib Dem 1979 73.1% (+59.2%)
Michael Parker Labour 435 16.1% (-28.7%)
Peter Thorpe Conservative 222 8.2% (-15.6%)
Peter Foulkes UKIP 70 2.6%
I’m amazed at Ruth Kelly being so charitable to the Gord. If I woke up one morning to find that my departure had been leaked and confirmed at 3am in the morning, I would go ballistic.
Labour should get some sort of bounce from their conference, but not enough to close the gap. Perhaps they’ll get to within 10% of the Conservatives.
I think that Labour would be most unwise to risk an Ashfield by-election, as they’d be likely to lose to the Conservatives.
35.Sorry Seant, had replied to your post before I saw this one.
281 Caveman. I much enjoy the detailed RCP on these states. However each in turn seem to start with the caveat - Obama can’t win this state but might just do so !!
Essentailly their Virginia analysis come to this. Will Obama do a Webb and what of AA differential turnout - 125% and it’s close.
The recent polling in the state indicates that Obama is out Webbing in the state without any differential turnout. Certainly if the primary is any indication then AA differential turnout may be closer to 140/150%. If that is the case then the state goes blue.
45. Whenever there are rumours going around of a resignation, No 10 wants to dealw ith it immediately. Remember the business of ‘flushing’ people out last week?
However, if she had told him in May, all been planned etc, why not wait until the morning to confirm? She is not merely resigning to spend more time with her family, or at least that is what Brown thinks.
AJ is Labour’s JM… if they go to one.He has all the John Major qualities and unlike JM would have the backing of his party.
I honestly don’t see more than 3% bounce after this week. The only positives coming from Manchester have been the photos of Milliband looking goonish.
No change in terms of policy or emphasis. No real apologies for past mistakes. Any policy announcements have been tinkering round the edges.
A lot of hot air and nothing to make GB any more secure.
44. Charlie Kennedy? Or maybe Ming?
I think Charlie would accept it, and Clegg would be glad if he did. It would also be the best shot in the arm the EU cause could get in terms of British politics.
52 but he this morning has ruled himself out of ever leading the party for reasons he has previously stated - he would therefore be a joke as leader.
26 “Unpicking the truth behind Ruth Kelly’s resignation will in part be possible when we have unravelled the mystery of timing - and why it happened on the day it did, overshadowing the warm party reaction to GB’s speech.
The BBC claim other Cabinet colleagues were thinking of joining her, possibly in a co-ordinated attempt to out Brown maybe on reshuffle day”
Good to see the BBC have been sourcing their conspiracy theories from pb.com!!!
“Here’s how this ends:
A Cabinet resignation, perhaps two. Ruth Kelly is an obvious candidate, plus anyone else from a good number of candidates. Gordon then finds great difficulty in filling the job. Rest of the Cabinet troop in en masse, telling him it’s time….
by Marquee Mark September 15th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
… but for those activists knocking on doors in Glenrothes, there was little for them to persuade voters to turn away from the lure of First Minister Alex Salmond and the Nationalists. One of the key announcements, free prescriptions for cancer sufferers, hardly compares with the free prescriptions of any sort already pledged by the SNP.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Gordon-Brown-39He-more-than.4521129.jp
46. My mistake. I though a) he was 28, & b) that the Tory leader of the Isle of Wight was younger (who is 28). Both ones to watch I would say!
49. You’re right, it’s all very odd. I can’t quite believe Brown is that Machiavellian - that he would try to distract attention from the underlying awfulness of his speech - I’m sure he thinks his speech was fabulous.
That’s the trouble with Brown, he’s a self deceiver. He actually believes he is a moral giant even as he tells enormous lies.
Back to the Kelly thing - I’m tempted to go with the Nick Robinson explanation. Number 10 realised she was about to quit, and that the news was leaking to the media - they therefore panicked and decided to leak the news themselves at once - 3 a.m.! - so as to give the impression of prime ministerial control over the story. “We knew this all along” etc etc.
Of course the impression they have given is of continuing chaos and internecine conflict, and of Brown trying to take down his opponents before they knife him. Nice.
This week has, I think, two big winners: Jack Straw and Harriet Harman.
Both benefit from Milliband’s poor conference. Straw benefits from Johnson ruling himself out: he is now almost the only “decent, steady bloke” candidate left. Harman benefits from the departure from the government of one of her female colleagues, and of the perception that the Labour movement as a whole retains some sympathy for Brown.
OK. We’re up with this now at ladbrokes.
Next Secretary of State for Transport
Liam Byrne 6/4
Jim Murphy 7/2
Rosie Winterton 12/1
Alistair Darling 12/1
Tony McNulty 16/1
Mike O’Brien 16/1
David Miliband 20/1
Des Browne 20/1
Andy Burnham 25/1
Sean Woodward 25/1
Geoff Hoon 25/1
Nick Brown 25/1
Angela Eagle 25/1
Kitty Ussher 25/1
Nick Palmer 100/1
Others On Request
31 along with the IpSOS poll showing a virtual tie, that’s two points for Mac in one day in a poll with a 9% Dem sampling advantage.
the commenters, including the Dems, on 538 were all rubbishing that WaPo poll. For now it seems to me things are not moving Obama’s way.
Also, in addition to the three point lead in MI, he may have a lead in PA. Look at this analysis from Geraghty of ARG:
http://tinyurl.com/4b38hu
“Obama’s In Good Shape in Pennsylvania, As Long As 53 Percent of the Voters are Democrats
ARG puts Obama ahead of McCain, 50 percent to 46 percent.
And I’m usually willing to cut a pollster some slack on the partisan breakdown of their sample. But for this poll, the sample was 53 percent Democrat and 39 percent Republican. And the 8 percent of independents break for McCain, 51 percent to 41 percent.
A reader notes that on Election Day 2006, exit polls found the voter pool in Pennsylvania to be 43 percent Democrat, 38 percent Republican, and 19 percent independent. In 2004, it was 41 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, and 20 percent independent.
If you plug in the same ARG results with the voter makeup of 2006, you get, by my calculations, McCain 49.1 percent, Obama 46.19 percent.”
60 - I think Ed Milliband has had a better conference than his brother. It might just be that the family might have to rethink their strategy
54. Ken Clarke would be a cheeky choice. Ashdown? Portillo? I like Charles Kennedy but I don’t think he’d be the right choice.
Be a good betting market actually.
64. Ken Clarke would be a GB masterstroke.
55.Point taken, and I agree that Alan wouldn’t challenge for the leadership,but once all bets are off (Brown resigns) then all that could change.
I have been watching all the likelies closely, and Alan Johnson only, strikes me as one equipped to either limit the damage or bring off an odds against win.
Say you field a candidate like Millband D. then you risk total wipeout for the sake of what ?………maybe a tiny chance of exta oomph.
As I see it, if GB goes they have no chance under a DM and little chance anyway but at least Alan Johnson gives them a final chance under new management.
Try and express it yet again.If and only if GB departs then a Milliband succession is an ‘in yer face’ challenge that will surely fail, in the way that a Heseltine challenge could have failed in 1990.
“Milliband’s poor conference”
Poor?, the man is a walking freak show for Christ’s sake……and we send him abroad as FS to represent this great country
62 test. Gallup has adjusted their party id to Democratic +10 !!
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110617/Democrats-ReEstablish-DoubleDigit-Lead-Party-Affiliation.aspx
55.”52 but he this morning has ruled himself out of ever leading the party for reasons he has previously stated - he would therefore be a joke as leader.”
Until yesterday…
Someone on PB.com linked to an article yesterday which said friends close to Alan Johnston were keen to point out that he is not now ruling himself out, or that his comments this week were a clear endorsement of David Miliband. As others have said, it just gets more curious or murky every day. The leaks, briefing and counter briefing is going to spin this whole government and the Labour party into orbit if they are not careful.
61. John Reid is a former transport minister.
What about Kitty Usher, who Mike thinks a lot of.
59. Michael White says
The first rumours of Kelly’s departure apparently surfaced on the BBC’s own Newsnight, where reporter David Grossman suggested that she would go. Patrick Wintour was quickly on the case and confirmed it.
I wonder if the confirmation was from someone with a couple of drinks inside them at the Labour Conference which forced the issue.
65. So it won’t happen then?
65. Yep, but like all Brown masterstroke it would bolster his political position for about a day, and then things would collapse back into Cabinet squabbling.
59.Seant, I did put in the caveat that my cynicism with this bunch of incompetents was beginning to cloud my view. I think your suggestion is much nearer the mark.
61.
I missed out Caroline Flint at 8/1.
72. It goes without saying…
If you want to see duplicity in action,this is Gordon squirming on Sky with Adam Boulton
http://blogs.news.sky.com/boultonandco/Post:297250e8-990a-4a07-a5c7-6e6d9a1b796c
65. Dear me, still thinking that the way ahead is to try to stir up nonexistent divisions among the Tories. Opposition beckons….
69 oh indeed, Johnson has put the matter straight this morning though - he won’t ever run. He didn’t back Milipede either - said he had merely stated he was a good politician or some such
68 I agree that David Miliband had a wretched Conference and showed he is not yet fit to be Labour leader, still less Prime Minister. He might mature in a year or two under caretaker leader Jack Straw - but then, so might several others. Now he’s back in the pack, at best.
Miliband’s worst disaster this week was to make Ed Balls not look a totally stupid choice as leader!
80. As I keep saying, Labour should be clutching at Straw.
41,55 - I posted this link on a previous thread this morning
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/dont-rule-me-out-for-leader-says-johnson-940313.html
Strange
How long before Tyson comes back and recants his recanting of yesterday?
82 thats the trouble with papers reporting what ‘friends of’ and ‘allies of’ say - Johnson himself says no, lol
71. Timing “coincided” with Geoff Hoon about to be interviewed by Paxman.
This is fun, isn’t it?
Wasn’t the key message of the Labour conference meant to be UNITY?
Singapore GP: Hamilton around 3/1 for a fastest lap on Betfair. Considering it may rain, and he’s in the top 3 drivers (with a car better equipped for rain than the othre two) that may be value.
A word of caution: it’s a brand new Grand Prix, and the first ever one at night, and no practice times have yet been recorded.
79.Events dear boy, events….
80.At the end of this conference we only have two definite conclusions regarding the Labour leadership, Brown is not the answer to the Labour party’s dire polling, and neither is David Miliband going on his performance over the last 18 months. He has performed very poorly both on the conference platform and in the media in general. He might be able to write a nice intellectual article, but if anything, he is worse than Gordon Brown when in the media spotlight. Next please.
It just sounds crazy to trigger an unnecessary by-election in Ashfield. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but it’s hard to see how the seat could be held. As mentioned, offering it to Clarke or a Lib Dem might be a clever move.
Evening Standard reporting Darling set to do U turn on Car tax..
This is Car crash Govt!
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23559520-details/Darling+set+to+back+down+over+road+tax+rises/article.do
NBC/Today Show battleground poll - Virginia tied. Numbers to follow.
83 - Maybe he will allow his hand to burn first exclaiming, ‘this hand hath offended’.
77. No sound - but you can really see him squirm. You can just imagine his internal dialogue - why are they picking on me - nasty tories meant that but said it slightly differently - where is andrew marr when i need him - he’d believe me
Maybe Brown is having to give Hoon the european job to buy Hoons silence? I read a report this week that Brown and Hoon had apparently had a stand up row after Brown confronted Hoon over his disloyalty. Maybe Hoon was preparing to cross the floor or something just generally speak out against Brown. Remember, Brown at the moment is trying to survive day to day, week to week. He isn’t looking at the possibility of a by-election sometime next year, so to answer the original question, if giving Hoon the european job helps give Brown another week or month as PM, then yes he probably would risk it.
Thanks for that link,old codger.
Milliband D. is fatally flawed and if anyone is looking to bet in the ‘Next PM Market’ then he is the weakest link.
Obviously this markket has three strands.
The obvious route is that Gordon Brown goes head to head with David Cameron and loses and therefore Cameron wins at a very unspectacular price.
The second route is that Brown resigns and Labour appoint an interim PM, giving hope to backers of Straw and Harman.
The third route is that Brown resigns and there is a contest for PM.I like Johnson !
There is a 4th route where Brown wins the election in 2010.
However its come about, if its Kelly’s intention to go on to back someone else further down the line .eg her pal Miliband, its important she doesn’t upset too many people now.
‘Labour activists told to prepare for November 6 byelection
- Crucial Glenrothes poll set to be held two days after the US presidential elections’
Activists said today they feared there could be a backlash from last week’s shock decision for Halifax Bank of Scotland to be taken over by Lloyds TSB.
Many HBOS employees who live in the Glenrothes constituency are among those waiting to hear about any job losses caused by the takeover.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/sep/24/glenrothes.labour
84 - methinks he protests too much….
Doesn’t want the job but might he reluctantly stand for it for the good of the party etc etc?
97. Isn’t it ridiculous that the Government can arrange a by-election pretty much whenever they want. I mean it was 3 weeks for Crewe and Nantwich, this one seems about 4 months. It’s absurd. I’m not too fussed about fixed-term parliaments, but there should be a better way of organising by-elections.
Will Ruth Kelly even stand at the next election? If not, might she decide she wants out now - and force another crushing by-election loss on Gordon?
Charlie Whelan on the Daily Politics said he spoke to Brown late last night and he is sure GB didn’t know anything about this morning’s resignation.
Why the hell would Ken Clarke switch to the government now? He’d have very little to gain unless it was a high up job (which it won’t be).
98 if he wants to look ridiculous then yeah, why not?!
He couldn’t have been clearer this morning on Sky and I’m afraid for Johnson backers it would take something extraordinary for him to be able to back out of that without having zero credibility with the electorate. If a free hit time after time after time at PMQs, in debate, on PEBs etc
62 - So all that McCain needs to do is make sure that he can stop anybody new from voting and hold back time then!
101. Hmmmm… I don’t trust Whelan as far as I can throw him. Wouldn’t listen to a word he says. This Ruth Kelly fiasco has McCavitys fingerprints all over it.
100. Still think there could be a defection the cards…
102 - I would have thought that David Cameron would be ecstatic if Ken Clarke were made an EU Commissioner (it won’t happen). On the one hand, getting a Conservative into a position of influence. On the other hand, getting the last prominent pro-EU Tory in the House of Commons out of his hair.
If I had a pound for every Labour MP who has today said “it can’t carry on like this….”
……I’d have £312
The Sun reveals Gordon’s downfall is on the cards! It wouldn’t surprise me if, even now, Gordon is consulting them in search of some hope.
101. Good old Charlie, always be relied upon to spin the party line and look stupid when it doesn’t work.
I enjoyed an email from a viewer of the DP.
‘Gordon in charge during the economic crisis is like making the arsonist your Fire Chief’.
99. It certainly is ridiculous. I’d go further Frank – I believe in fixed term parliaments (only to be delayed in the event of a mjor disaster or act of God). The whole idea that Government can decide the date of by-elections and indeed general elections is, in my view, deeply undemocratic.
And I speak as a Labour leaner – but a democrat first and foremost.
This could be an embarassment for McCain:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/
Gordon gets a Baracking…
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/09/obamas-unhappin.html
Too much on here to read, but am I right in thinking that it is likely Gordon (or his inner circle) is responsible for knocking his own speech and fightback right off the top of the news agenda and replacing it with a Cabinet resignation, surrounding intrigue, speculation about the reshuffle that clearly now has to take place, and more backstabbing and plotting?
That’s astonishing if so, even by Brown’s standards of ineptitude.
109 “She then turned over Mr Snuffit, the undertaker - and apologised that her daughter’s Happy Family set appeared to have got mixed in with the Tarot cards….”
It would have looked better if Charlie had said they’d known for ages but the guy was too busy being the big fella from UNITE, who is always on the phone to Gordon and I think the question caught him by surprise.
Neil had been making him uncomfortable by making the point that UNITE is Labour’s Ashcroft - helping them in the marginals and paying over large sums of money.
Obviously its not comparable since Ashcroft does not get a government handout.
115. And still 18 months to go before a GE…
118
Labour wont last 18 months.
113 Especially as the FBI are now investigating the fall of Fanie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehmans and AIG. Although, to be fair, the fall of these mighty institutions must be down to foul play by a few bad apples - it couldn’t possibly be as a result of a systemic failure of the whole system…..
It seems sensible to suspect someone in the Cabinet leaked Kelly’s departure to upset the stage managed arrangements, possibly without her knowledge.
90 - I said a while back that the car tax issue was going to be a disaster for Labour - each month, another chunk of the elctorate will get a nasty shock as they come to renew their licence. In political terms, it may even be worse than the 10p income tax fiasco, because it is so arbitrary. Trouble is, they need the money, so a U-turn would add even more to the soaring debt levels.
119. I sincerely hope not, but it’s hard to see what will shift them - this isn’t 1979, their majority is large.
That said, from a partisan perspective, the longer they cling on the bigger their final defeat will be. Given the economic outlook (note BoE’s Blanchflower talking today about unemployment perhaps rising by 100k plus in a single month)their poll ratings are going to slip to 15-20% and third place by next year.
Read the last para. Does Cruddas really mean this???
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2171931/john-cruddass-conference-diary-part-5.thtml
115. I suspect Brown was bouyed by the reasonably good reception his speech recieved and got carried away. He knows Kelly has been disloyal and decided to make an example of her by forcing her to resign in front of the Labour conference rather than at the timing of her choosing. This I suspect, was designed to be a warning to other rebellious cabinet ministers (we also had the Milliband slap down in his speech) But in true Brown style, instead of making his enemies look stupid the whole thing has backfired and Brown is the one thats come out of it all looking weak, deceptive and not in control. What a wicked web we weave….
123, aye, Blanchflower’s predicted 2m unemployed by Christmas, and argued for a rate cut for a while. Got to be said most of the MPC disagree with him, at least over rates.
121 - That’s the best theory I’ve heard so far. Number 10 had no reason to leak it. Ruth Kelly appears not to have wanted to precipitate its announcement - if she were so minded, she could have chosen more deadly times to break her news, or made a more deadly statement once the news had broken. Once those possibilities have been eliminated, if it were intentional, that only leaves people in the know who are enemies of Gordon Brown. He might have enemies among his staffers, but it is far more likely that it would comprise Cabinet colleagues.
The final possibility, which also can’t be ruled out by any means, is that it is one almighty screw-up, and someone has leaked it by accident (under the influence of alcohol?). At Conference, I would give that a 40% possibility.
Following on from Mike’s theory that it might be a female assassine, Neil read off a list of 10 MPs including Cairns who had publically critised Brown and were 10 of the 52 who backed Blears for Deputy Leadership.
Steven Pound would not be among them of course.
124 MTF - It looks as though he wrote it in under the influence. It’s quite funny though:
“Harriet’s speech is on Wednesday lunchtime- my wife works as her special advisor. The tension is palpable. All her staff tend to view us males, including me, with suspicion – they assume we are all prospective Fathers for Justice handcuffers.”
129 - I think the clue is in the following:
“Went out on the lash. Dinner with the News of the World, on to the News International gig and then drank a wine lake in the Radisson. It all went horribly wrong. Went to bed at ‘5ish’. The wheels fell off.”
How many voters in this old mining constituency will still vote for anyone but Tory as they are still parroting “Maggie closed the coal mines”
Ca I just say this is the most entertainingly chaotic and disunited conference since… I don’t know when. Takes me right back to Kinnock in the 80s.
We’ve had a build up of resignations, a theme of plotting and counter-plotting, Johnson saying he will stand then he won’t stand, veiled leadership bids and overt leadership bids, overheard condemnations of The Speech leaked by friends, Miliband secretly admitting to a Heseltine moment, Prescott and Clarke nearly having a punch-up on live TV, and now a weird ministerial resignation announced at 3am which was possibly deliberately leaked by the prime minister to detract attention from a future series of resignations timed to take down the leader before he executes a dangerous reshuffle.
And they’ve still got an afternoon to go.
Completely O/T, but more on Peston, one can’t help asking awkward questions about his links with Labour.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-business/article-23559569-details/Revealing+nature+of+the+Beeb%C2%92s+flourishing+tall+poppy/article.do
At the weekend, it was disclosed that in the two minutes before he broadcast his report, two buyers bought more than 22 million HBOS shares at 96p each. Within 45 minutes of his news, the shares had shot up to 215p. Whoever bought those shares made a very quick, huge profit.
101.”Charlie Whelan on the Daily Politics said he spoke to Brown late last night and he is sure GB didn’t know anything about this morning’s resignation.2
SallyC, it is good news for the Conservative party if Whelan is back firmly in the Brown bunker giving a helping hand.
124. Sounds tired & emotional to me.
I remember the conclusion of LPC’S in the ’80s and early 90s so much more than the conclusion of the present one.
I vividly remember the conclusion to the one in ‘91 prior to the ‘92 election.
Kinnock introduced his Dream Team and the conference faded out to the sound of Queen’s ‘We are the Champions of the World’.At the time this went well for the first couple of choruses before descending into comlete embarrassment.
This Conference just faded into obscurity thanks to Harriet and yet without embarrassment thanks to history.
126. Indeed - but his calls on growth and unemployment have been pretty accurate in recent months.
132. Fantastic isn’t it?
It would appear the Mason-Dixon/NBC poll is not tied but 47/44 for McCain. Crosstabs when available :
http://thepage.time.com/2008/09/24/poll-virginia-race-tight/
133. Surely the leaking of such information would result in prison terms for all involved?
128 =’assassin’
134, reminds me of dipstick (being polite) Draper on the Newsnight politics panel. He replaced the pretty good Peter Hyman[sp] who usually represents Labout. Constant petty, partisan points, most of which were utter tosh. Apparently we’re all going to wake up one day and see Gordon is tough and resilient and the Tories kill kittens for fun and set poor people on fire at weekends.
Just read Hattie’s speech.
Could her scriptwriters not manage sentences of more than 4 words?
Hardly rousing in terms of content.
Has anyone from Labour mentioned the LDs this week?
124.Very bizarre!
140 - Well yes but I wonder just how coincidental that couple of people buying 22million shares were?
oops - I just spotted some LD stuff in Hattie’s remarks
129. which is why the bi*h is legislating to make us men second class citizens in our own country. If you happen to be white and male, make that third class.
143. Not that I’ve heard. Just like pre-97 the Tories never mentioned us either. That’s complacency for you (or just stupidity).
147, it’s absolutely appalling. Labour’s deputy leader is a racist and a sexist. Bigotry’s unacceptable in whatever form, and the fact that such a senior government figure is hell bent on female supremacy is outrageous.
Isn’t there some kind of convention that EU Commissioners should alternate alignment between Labour and Conservative?
Since we had a single commissioner, it’s been Neil Kinnock, Chris Patten, Peter Mandelson…
My guess is that a Conservative is more likely to be appointed. Ken Clarke would be an obvious choice - competent, experienced europhile… - although at 68 a little on the old side.
Malcolm Rifkind would be the other obvious one - again competent, experience of European politics, pretty pro-european for a tory, and six years younger than Ken Clarke…
Probably already been posted, but Brogans blog is dynamite;
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/
Cabinet minister talking about a declaration of war from Brown. Brown must be stopped. Brogan thinks this could all spell disaster for Brown….
What a way to run a country!
146. Ok, well she’s got her eyes on the ball anyway. I always remember Blair taking a few swipes at us, nothing from Gordy though (& his MP at home is a Lib Dem now, you think that’d be a reminder!).
143. I read her speech too (Jesus how sad that sounds!) it’s full of bollocks, natch, but it’s a better and peppier speech than Gordon’s (though of course we don’t know if her delivery will be up to snuff).
Anyhow, as our host has often pointed out, she would be a good bet for Labour. Miliband has flunked it, Johnson doesn’t want it, Straw is too old and Blair-y, Cruddas is too lefty - Hattie’s the one.
They need to install her quickly, and she could rattle the Tory cage. I trust Labour won’t actually do anything that smart.
Re: 132 - The Liberal Assembly at Eastbourne in 1986 was a hoot (I was there) while the Conservative Conferences of both 1997 and 2003 looked like real humdingers.
The bit about the 1997 Tory Conference I enjoyed was watching Lord Archer leading the lynch mob of angry activists working out which poor Shadow Cabinet member was going to be hung, drawn and quartered first !!
142. The thing is, these yobs think they were responsible for Labour’s previous success - rather than it being due to a) the stupidity of the Tories in the 1990s and the electorate’s desperate desire for change and b) the appeal of Blair.
So they keep on ranting, raving, and sneering in the only way they know how, deluding themselves that people actually respond to this stuff.
131 It was a UDM stronghold…..they hate Scargill more.
Some video from Chuck Todd on the new Virginia numbers :
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/09/new_poll_in_virginia.html
Drunk or not, Jon Cruddas has been given praise by Jackie Ashley:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/sep/24/labourconference.labour
136: ‘At the time this went well for the first couple of choruses before descending into comlete embarrassment.’
I seem to remember Dr Jack Cunningham doing a somewhat dodgy your-dad-at-the-christmas-party dance.
159. If only the BBC would put old conference coverage on YouTube!
156. Perhaps. But surely the miners there were the ones who felt truly betrayed. They went on working & stood up to that idiot Scargill… then they got shut down as well. But then that was Thatch & her personal vendetta for you.
132.That summing up of the state of play reads like an opening/ending to an episode of that old American comedy Soap.
Apologies if anyone’s mentioned this before but there’s an excellend piece in today’s Indy by Hamish McRae on why Brown was ultimately a failure as Chancellor.
Some choice bits
The fiscal rules, while fine in intent, were open to manipulation by off-balance sheet borrowing and by massaging the timing of the economic cycle. But as an aim it was admirable: stability was what Britain needed.
For a while Gordon Brown delivered. He built up a surplus in the fat years of the late 1990s dotcom boom and was able to fund the deficits of the early 2000s dotcom bust. The UK came through that downswing in better shape that any other major economy. Had he stuck to his own rules from 2002 onwards, it could have had a profound influence on fiscal policy around the world. I remember seeing him with other finance ministers at international meetings then and he was really much admired.
Then it all went wrong. Instead of recognising that additional money had to be fed into public services at an orderly pace, he stuck to unrealistic spending targets. When revenues fell short, as they did year after year, he just borrowed more. If we as individuals have been guilty of a spending spree financed by excessive borrowing, he as Chancellor was even more culpable.
We will learn how much worse – or to be more accurate, we will get an estimate of how much worse – from Alistair Darling next month. But Mr Darling did not create the problem; the mistakes were made much much earlier.
The Cruddas article is odd.
It tries to have a dig at Kelly which suggests he thinks there was something orchestrated about it - from Kelly herself.
However, if its widely known/suspected that she was not happy with Brown’s leadership, someone forcing her departure could send a potentially false signal to the other audience - namely, those inside Labour.
It emboldens others and keeps momentum.
Too much conspiracy perhaps?
160 - Talking of old conferences, there was a point in 2003 at the Conservative gathering when the obligatory snotty oik came on stage during the Home Affairs debate to demand the restoration of hanging, flogging and every other form of cruel and unusual punishment. When he had finished there was a small ripple of applause but 2/3 of the audience just had their heads in their hands. Personally I think it was at that point that the party woke up and decided it had had enough of mucking about.
158. It’s funny Jack that when McCain makes advances, you always have an excuse. But when Obama makes advances this is the natural order of things.