The Tories move up a couple of notches on the spreads
October 2nd, 2008Are punters anticipating a polling boost?
David Cameron’s conference speech seems to have gone down well on the spread betting markets where there has been a shift to the Tories this morning. Sporting Index has moved up two seats and is now only four seats below the market high in mid-September when an Ipsos-MORI poll came in with a 28% Tory lead.
In this form of betting punters “trade” the number of seats as though they were stocks and shares and if you anticipate thing right you can get out of your position and take your profit now even though the general election might be nineteen months away.
This is a form of gambling for those who happy with the risk, are confident about their ability to predict and, preferably, have deep pockets. If you get it wrong you can chalk up massive losses. On the other hand if you are right you can make a lot of money.
I should say that I am not changing changing any of my positions at the moment.
Betting update: IG Index is running a spread market on the Tory share in the next YouGov poll. The spread is 45.75 - 46.25. I think it is worth a small punt on a buy.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No surprise!
Any word on new polls?
At last I got in first!!
3. Hubris!
Latest poll (Comres) gave the Tories 347 seats. Interesting that this is now outside the margin, punters must be expecting a polling boost.
Both the Beeb and Sky are reporting that there will be a significant statement about Sir Ian Blair later today, is he resigning?
6 - His term is up in 2010, it might be that it will not be renewed.
6 - Hopefully!
7, 2010 may turn out to be an excellent year. All we need now is for Balls to be launched into the sun and Vaz to be fed to the lions.
6 - Yes he is.
O/T - Vaz being investigated.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7648451.stm
On the subject of house prices….
1) The mortgage lenders want to retract bck to 25% deposit and 3-4x salary (4 and bit for people with high incomes and total job security) - this is what they are telling people quite openly. This will cause prices to fall about 40%+ *on it´s own*. This will not change, and may well be enforced by regulation eventually (protecting banks from themselves).
2) There is insane over supply in the small-crap-flat market. This is because of a number of factors, including government buldozing planning permission through for high density schemes. Note that they have steadily reduces the statutory minimum size for rooms etc. I know it is hard for ex communits (an spl. but one I like) to understand - market economics doesn´t mean designing all regulation for the benefi of the greediest large businesses…. IR35 etc.
3) Banking salaries ar actually not gigantic!!! The mega pay is always in the bonus. For a considerbale number of indiviuals in the South East, net income has dopped to 100K from millions. So goodbye the top end of the market as well. What is not generaly understood is that except for the billionaires, everyone was getting big mortgages - people with million pound bonuses buying 8 milion pound houses….
4) There may not be enough money to lend. Even if you have the right deposit, job, property etc. you may be told to wait in a queue. Like 1) this is just a return to how things were a generation or so ago.
BBC: Statement on future of Ian Blair imminent!
I thought he would go after the De Menezes review, something must have pushed him over the edge, what is it?
I only hope the PC brigade haven’t got him. I accept it would be an ironic result but very bad for the future of the MET
12 1) Lenders are more cautious and conservative, but they aren’t insisting on 25% deposits.
14 - If he had a shred of honour, he would have gone over De Menezes. His attempt to block the investigation was appalling. As for what pushed him over the edge, I suspect a rumpled figure with untidy blond hair.
14 - Probably (and literally) those two wretched whingeing suspended Asian officers.
18, quite. It’s almost looking like an Asian mafia, with the top cops and slimeball Vaz abusing his position.
Make this Guy PM immediately!
Lindsay Hoyle, Labour MP
The World At One, BBC Radio 4
Mr. Hoyle renewed calls for a windfall tax on energy companies saying, “Energy companies hit the poorest hardest. It seems absolutely obscene and totally unacceptable.
“We’ve got to recognise that the price of oil is coming down. They said that the price of oil is making the bills higher, why, then, are the energy companies proposing increases up to 30% when oil has gone down 30%?”
When asked about the bulk-buying practices of the energy companies, Mr. Hoyle said: “Since they had bought oil in advance, energy prices should have been cheaper.
“The fact is, the public have had enough. This is legalised looting. Normally we bring martial law to deal with looting and we need to pass laws to stop the energy companies.
“We have to play strong arm tactics on them. They loot like a cartel.”
Nate Silver @ 538 savages RCP on their use of selective pro McCain polling :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html
So who will get the job? I think it may well be the chief constable of Kent Michael Fuller who would be the first black person to be awarded the job.
22. And a excellent choice he would be, in my opinion.
19 Keith Vaz conforms to all the worst stereotypes that could be applied to Asian politicians.
One of his more repellent acts has been to run a campaign against the Solicitors’ Regulatory Authority, alleging racial bias against solicitors from ethnic minorities. In fact, a recent report by Lord Ouseley found no evidence of such racial bias.
No time to post today but I am copying a valuable contribution from Iain Dale’s site. Guess who it’s from?
“I do not detect the wish for more Gordon that you percieve. The BBC may trot this line out and some of the Labour MP’s talking to themselves but Labour are finished! DOOMED, like the pithy LD’s!”
20. Interesting stuff.
Could someone tell me if I had bought Tory shares shares last week what sort of profit would I have made? 5%,10%? It seemed so certain that there would be a Tory bounce, it was almost like free money.
25, Mark Senior?:p
19 morris dancer. I’d caution against such comments for Mike’s sake. It’s not as if they don’t like the law !!
25
MD?
If there is a smiley it will be him…
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 51%
Note - M -1 from yesterday.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
24 Given he is MP for Leicester East, he would be failing to represent his constituents properly if he wasn’t part of the Asian mafia.
All those speculating about falling property prices please note that there are now virtually no new housing sites being started in the country at all except those being financed by housing associations for social housing. There is no way anybody can make a profit doing this at present - building land with planning permission is in very short supply and I do not think the people who own it will generally be quick to accept its price needs to be cut by around 50% to be viable for a housebuilder to buy it and build in the current economic climate. I have thought that a correction of 15% off peak prices was needed but if Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling do not take effective action very soon house prices will fall much more than that and we only have to look at what happened to the 10 year Japanese experience to see how difficult it is to stimulate a “stagflated economy”!
According to 5live Blair’s rumoured to have paid a friend or something
Sir Ian Blair’s Deputy is Paul Stephenson - former Chief Constable of my county Lancashire. I guess he would cover the job on an interim basis at least.
28, I did say ‘almost’. After all, they haven’t been charged or convicted with anything.
[Yet].
29, I try not to overdo the exclamation marks. It’s a bad internet habit!!!!!11111
Sky reporting Blair’s resignation.
“It follows the revelation that the Scotland Yard chief used public money to pay a close friend a five-figure sum for an image makeover.”
Money wasted if you ask me!
36, Coffee House reckons £15k for the sum, and 4pm for the time of the statement.
No. of States Won Betting - if one or two more hitherto “no hope” States for Obama now fall within his grasp, this opens up an interesting betting opportunity on Betfair.
For example, currently good value IMHO is to back McCain to win between 21-25 States at evens money, backed-up by a small “saver” on him only winning between 16-20 States, available at 8-1.
At first glance, the reverse odds in terms of the number of States which Obama will win don’t appear quite as attractive, although the prices for both may change of course.
I’m not aware of any bookmakers offering bands of States won by either candidate in this fashion.
36 Outrageous if true. And surely somewhat pointless for a uniformed police officer. Place the cap at a jaunty angle.
OT just heard Will Young, the singer, on Five Live talking about wanting to be on Question Time. 10 minutes the editor of QT invites him on the programme. Listening to his views on bank deposits sounds like he could be a maverick guest.
36 After the resignation of his deputies, Boris pulls one back!
32. What action do you think Brown and Darling could take to stop house prices falling?
42 Resign
Coffee House says “We look like heading for a far worse downturn than anybody in Westminster is contemplating, especially Mr Brown.”
Part of the “bounce mkII” for Gordon Brown is IMHO the impression he has given that a new regulatory regime and the ‘action he is taking to do whatever is necessary…concentrating on the job etc.’ will resolve the situation quickly and normal service will be restored. When this doesn’t happen, even though the bail out happens, banks stop failing and a new regulatory bill is enacted, the fall in confidence in Brown could be dramatic.
Repost fom previous thread:
397 Serious punters on the US Election Markets should treat this as compulsory reading:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
It seems that the highly regarded Site, Realclearpolitics, may not be as impartial as many, including myself, have assumed it is.
If the suggestion is correct, it may help to explain why we have been able to get stonking good odds on Obama lately.
Guy on the BBC just referred to Boris Johnson as Sir Boris Johnson…lol
39 -
41 - In a way I hope it’s not down to something as mundane as ‘sleaze’ it would a delicious irony if the PC Plod of political correctness was done in by err ‘political correctness’.
38 PfP. I’d go for the latter. 8/1 on 16-20 implies McCain losing one of SC, GA or MT to edge the figure down to 20. Below 16 doesn’t look likely even on current poll figures.
29. there wasn’t a smiley for once, but you’re right…
Now that Ian Blair is set to resign, Boris should step in and stamp his authority on the Met.
The economy: from another financial boards.
The key is consumer confidence - in banks AND the economy. At present it is going downhill and you can rely on the Government and the FSA to lie…and I use that phrase advisedly
“17 September 2008
Since the beginning of the current extreme difficulties in the financial markets, the Financial Services Authority has worked intensively with all major UK banks to ensure they have credible capital and liquidity plans. We are satisfied that HBOS is a well- capitalised bank that continues to fund its business in a satisfactory way. ”
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/Statements/2008/hbos.shtml
That was the 17th September. On 18th September the Lloyds takeover was announced.
So one thing we can rely on: Governments lie. The FSA lie.
Actions are what count.
And Key actions are:
Cut in interest rates.
Cut in Gov’t spending (As revenues from Corporation tax and income tax are plummeting and VAT revenues will fall with consumer spending. And stamp duty will have collapsed).
Refinancing UK banks.
As none of the above has happened , and there is NO sign of it happening AND it will take at least 6 months to have real impact… we are probably a minimum of 6 months away from any market bottom
AND
each month’s delay in action means things get worse… so add two months to the recovery timescale…
An abject failure in political leadership.. (and I have no political hat on…. makes Major’s ERM debacle look like a side show .).
This has the potential to be worse than 1971-74. If so FTSE could fall 60% : to 2850..
Remember actions count. And so far we have seen none. By the UK..
New Insider Advantage poll for Georgia :
McCain 50% .. Obama 44%
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/67_Ga%20Sept%2030.pdf
20 Make this Guy PM immediately!
Coldstone, with the greatest respect, you have no clue what you’re talking about and the guy you respect is a complete idiot.
Energy prices have fallen back a bit since the high in the mid summer, but they’re still historically high. It takes time for the costs to migrate downstream due to bulk buying and the trends are often smoothened along the way. Because oil was at its peak of $140-145/bbl for only a few days, ordinary people at the end of the stream never felt its effects. Prices remain high because oil, despite seemingly cheap compared to a couple of months ago is still historically enormously expensive. Can you imagine only a few years ago, oil companies evaluated their projects based on an UPSIDE of $40/bbl?
Your previous rantings about the results of regulation are ridiculous. Energy prices are high because the demand is high and supply can’t keep up. That’s because government regulation and tax has meant that our infrastructure is in a state. However it is nothing compared to the state the infrastructure would be in if it was under government control.
The only apparently benefit of government control would be that prices would be set politically (ie low) rather than economically. But that benefit is an illusion. It’s like the residents of Springfield trying to prevent a second comet scare by burning down the observatory. Government control could keep prices low right up until the point when the lights go out.
The lessons of history are clear. When supply falls behind, you either allow prices to rise to warn you about it or you fix prices low and wait for the shortage to arrive.
Because of the high prices there is now cash to invest in boosting energy upstream and downstream. If you take that away with a windfall tax, then all you’ll get is continual high prices and eventual shortages.
There is no conspiracy here. Just supply ‘n’ demand at work.
A belated Good afternoon. I see tha Markets are dipping again.
It’s the reshuffle rumors.
Here’s a video clip and transcript from a CNN discussion about how the U.S. media are overwhelmingly in the tank for the Obama campaign and how pivotal that has been to Obama’s success.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2008/08/25/lou-dobbs-my-colleagues-media-are-absolutely-biased
Lou Dobbs asked Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf what he thought of the media coverage of Obama and he said “Good for democrats, not so good for the nation in the long term” and “The problem here from the beginning is from the day Obama showed up, I was wondering when the reporters will start chiseling his face on to Mt. Rushmore and the guy hadn’t even won the nomination yet.”
This may all be lost on some Europeans who are used to seeing Republicans vilified and Democrats praised to the skies in their own mass media, which is all well and good, but it is decidedly unhealthy for our democracy to have this sort of political coverage in our own country.
54 “I see the Markets are dipping again. It’s the reshuffle rumours.”
That Darling is keeping his job?
Or that Balls is getting it???
48 Thanks Jack - the even money for him winning 21-25 States has now gone, but I’ve topped up on the 16-20 band at 8-1 as you suggested. By the same token, laying McCain to win 26-30 states at 1.24 looks pretty good value IMHO.
I think it is probably now time to split out the national Terrorism function from the Met and make sure that the Met is only focussed on London.
PtP - Quite a few times it’s been pointed that RCP is a right wing site and to read it with that knowledge (same as you would with Drudge).
The least ‘biased’ is pollster.com although the Democrat supporting 538 uses all poll numbers unlike RCP (well, they don’t use private polling but that makes perfect sense).
56 Exactly all the chief assholes will be stuck to their seat’s. Still. Lol
16. Not yet - but it is heading that way. A friend who has just quit as a mortgage broker was being told this by his contacts in the banks/building societies - in essence wind back to the early 80s.
53. Not to mention the fact that electric vehicles have recently become practical, if expensive. Guess what is driving the investment to get the cost down?
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 47%
Note - Unchanged from yesterday. Numbers via pollster.com.
If the allegations about Blair are true, I’d expect him to be summarily dismissed without compensation. (Lovely split infinitive there, but they’re allowed now apparently!)
Not that this will harm him financially as he’s doubtless entitled to a mega pension, payable anytime now.
63. Frankly he should be impeached. I think he is the most disgraceful person to have occupied a senior public office in my lifetime.
Guido reckons it is BoJo acting…
http://www.order-order.com/2008/10/sky-boris-told-blair-to-go.html
50 — Boris still hasn’t got rid of bendy buses.
63 “(Lovely split infinitive there, but they’re allowed now apparently!)”
Really? Has that been approved by David Cameron?
New Democracy Corp/GQR poll for Ohio :
McCain 43% .. Obama 49% .. Barr 2% .. Nader 2%
Note - 2 point undersample AA.
http://www.democracycorps.com/wp-content/files/ohsw100108fq1_pb.pdf
First, one Blair quits, now another follows a year later. Also, Kelly and Digby going. Plus various Labour MPs not re-contesting their seats at the GE. And Red Ken booted out. Brown hanging on by his fingertips, somehow.
It all has the feel of a knackered old regime falling apart at the seams…
66 Bendy buses should know that their day of reckoning will come, today isn’t the day to add further instability to the transport market.
64 “I think he is the most disgraceful person to have occupied a senior public office in my lifetime.”
I think another Blair might be in the running for that title…. Lying the country into war, anybody?
Perhaps it’s just a Blair thing. Maybe Lionel is really the head of the Medellin cartel….
66 that’s because bendy buses have some redeeming features, unlike Blair.
63 - Rumour has it that Blair was sighted strapping on a golden parachute before leaving the office via an open window.
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/beyond/2008/10/obama-makes-mccain-very-uncomf.html
“Let the record reflect that Barack Obama made the approach to John McCain tonight.
As the two shared the Senate floor tonight for the first time since they won their party nominations, Obama stood chatting with Democrats on his side of the aisle, and McCain stood on the Republican side of the aisle.
So Obama crossed over into enemy territory.
He walked over to where McCain was chatting with Republican Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida and Independent Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut. And he stretched out his arm and offered his hand to McCain.
McCain shook it, but with a “go away” look that no one could miss. He tried his best not to even look at Obama.
Finally, with a tight smile, McCain managed a greeting: “Good to see you.”
Obama got the message. He shook hands with Martinez and Lieberman — both of whom greeted him more warmly — and quickly beat a retreat back to the Democratic side.”
Look at Brown, look at McCain, the body language of both is poor beyond comprehension. If you hate someone the least you could do is hide it when in public.
In the reports on Blair on Sky (I think) it was said Sir Ian allowed the cars of the police bodyguard for Tony Blair to be plastered with Vote Labour stickers during last election. Not heard that one before.
66. You need to order the replacements, it is probably a long term thing, you cant just junk new purchases…
Are the percentages for each state on 538 a good guide to betting on them? For example it shows Obama with 72% chance in New Hampshire, which as you can back him at 1.57 suggests this is good value?
77 - Yes, although I believe they are predictions for now, not November, so you have to predict where you think the polls will go from here.
59 UK Paul
It matters not whether a Site is biased as long as it reports the data consistently and fairly. Nate’s accusation is that it is not doing so, but is being selective in the data it admits and reports.
That’s a serious allegation. If it is true, we have been punting on the basis of deliberate misinfomation.
77 Noisy
I’m not quite sure what you are referring to but yes, 1.57 is a decent price for N Hampshire.
Boris to make statement at 4:30
40. ROFL, Mrs Dale has being angling for an invite for years!!!
79 - I thought people knew that RCP was being selective with the data. You only have to check the polls, and the dates of them, to see that. Their use of ARG is just one more symptom of that but I’d noticed the dates issue a while ago, as with the use of neophyte pollsters whilst suppressing some with a good track record.
79 PtP. It’s really old news as both ukpaul and i have indicated on several occassions. Nate gave RCP the benefit of the doubt but now realizes they were pulling his chain.
Meanwhile …. via Politico :
Chuck Todd on MSNBC this morning:
“All the trend lines are pointing in Obama’s direction… This should really scare the McCain campaign. This thing — it’s at a tipping point. And this debate, frankly, is coming at good time for McCain because he needs something — anything — to stop this Obama momentum… The pressure is all on Sarah Palin, not just for her own persona, but to save the McCain campaign… I think Virginia, frankly, is a trailing indicator of the national numbers… John McCain is campaigning in Missouri later this week. That’s not a good sign. You shouldn’t have to be worrying about Missouri at this point.”
Excellent news that Boris has forced Sir Ian Bliar out of his job. WElcomed by ordinary police officers who think he is a politician not a copper.
I could never understand why he hasnt faced Manslaughter charges over the De Menezes case. If a building working falls off a building under construction and dies then regardless the poor managing director gets charged with something but the Met could murder an innocent man because of their incompetence in surveillance techniques and nothing happens.
Good riddance and lets see a copper get the job who doesnt want to be a politician.
83 And you didn’t tell me, UK Paul! I’m shocked.
Seriously, I hadn’t noticed. RCP goes down several notches in my estimation.
Still, I suppose I ought to be grateful. They’ve been artificially ramping Obama’s price. Thank you, RCP!
53 Josh yo will get no sense out of coldstone - he is truly part of the tax them til the pips squeak brigade. Supply and demand will go right over his head.
84 Well, as you know Jack, I’m a bit slow. I’ll try to keep up better in future.
I wonder what the mood is in the bunker today? NuLabour stooge Blair kicked out, a great speech by DC, the re-shuffle is likely to be a non-event, polls still show Tories 10%+ ahead….. it must be getting pretty ugly in there.
Reading the article at the top from Mike, one hopes that Labour MPs pay no attention to the fact that the betting markets think that 130+ of them are doomed to lose their seats. Otherwise they will do something about “Vicky” Brown. These are punters risking their cash. Labour MPs as evidenced by our Nick, are back in their own comfort zone. Vicky Brown meanwhile dithers away on a reshuffle, yes but no but yes but no but….
Glenrothes will therefore be another big shock, but Nov 6th may be to close to December for any move against Vicky Brown this side of the June 09 elections.
We can therefore expect another swathe of Labour MEps and Labour councillors to be kicked out. Particularly following DC’s Lisbon manifesto statement for the Euros. The Labour Autumn 2009 conference will have even fewer attendees. I hope they booked a smaller hall…..
74- McCain might not have appreciated Obama’s Senate floor stunt in front of the cameras in light of, for example, Obama’s recent TV ads mocking McCain for physical infirmities resulting from his war/torture injuries (the ads Biden denounced as “terrible”).
76. actually you can, if your policy is as regressive as his - i.e. ditching the new, more efficient replacements in favour of the old rubbish version
89 - 10% plus could be a comeback, I think they would be grasping the up 10% in the polls.
86 - I did say - honest!
just two weeks ago I posted this, for example - “RCP would, if they were not being partisan omit Battleground and Hotline as there daily samples are also too small.”
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/09/21/four-more-resignations-after-the-conference/#comment-781395
63 - Next stop for Blair, should be the dock in a Court of Law, as the defendant. (This could of course apply to either Blair)
95 - It has not been a good year for all things Blair; it’s so bad I hear even Lionel has applied for Saudi citizenship.
Sir Iain Blair. Could it be said?
“If you ‘live’ by political correctness then you deserve to ‘die’ by political correctness.”
copyright TC
81 - closing down Heathrow? Time to build Sheppey Airport?
94 Not good enough, UK Paul! I expect a personal telephone call at the very least.
See me after school.
91 SaS. That some stretch (As the Krays said to the Judge)
The fact is that McCain overt disdain for Obama is costing McCain dearly. Noted most recently in his sour debate performance. Independents and swing voters hate it and its costing him.
This from Politicalwire.com :
David Nather reports on Sen. Barack Obama’s attempt last night to greet Sen. John McCain on the Senate floor by offering his hand.
“McCain shook it, but with a ‘go away’ look that no one could miss. He tried his best not to even look at Obama. Finally, with a tight smile, McCain managed a greeting: ‘Good to see you.’”
Marc Ambinder: “If there’s one thing that worries Republican strategists more than the polls today, even more than the listlessness of the Republican Party, it is that Sen. McCain seems flustered, angry, inconsistent-in-tone, and his campaign seems angry and off-kilter. His refusal to look at Obama during last week’s debate was evident in just about every clip.”
So when is the other Blair officially going to announce his resignation?
94- At least we have the Kos poll to give it to us straight.
90 Nick Palmers contribution today really got my goat if no-one noticed. It is one thing towing party line, we would be extremely be suprised for him not to do that, but to try and claim that the BBC is fair and balanced because they have Jeremy Clarkson on Top Gear, well that takes the biscuit.
I have noticed his contributions have become more and more focused on America as it looks like Obama will get in. The labour party increasingly has nothing to say.
91 - SaS: heart of hearts, trying not to be too partisan about it, do you honestly think that Obama mocking McCain’s cyber-illiteracy was actually mocking his war injuries?
Has there ever, in the history of the US, been a candidate so completely off-the-wall stupid as to mock war injuries of his opponent?
Is it honestly not more likely that one of the many reasons (including age, proclivity, need, and a large staff) that McCain doesn’t use computers is that he has war injuries, and that ‘Obama is mocking a war veteran’ was the pretty feeble response from the GOP.
I don’t mind calling either side on out-of-order attack ads, but Biden was flat out wrong, based on the getting the wrong end of the wrong stick at the wrong time, and not seeing that as a reason to keep his mouth shut for once.
63. You didn’t split the infinitive. You wrote “to be summarily dismissed” which is fine. “To summarily be dismissed” would be splitting the infinitive.
97 It’s always one rule for them another for me with his sort though
New PPP poll for Michigan :
McCain 41% .. Obama 51%
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Michigan_1002685.pdf
Does anyone think that negative reaction to the Paulson plan Mk2 could propell a populist independant into the race ?
108 Too late for any other party to enter the race. They are already voting in a several states!
A shame Blair is resigning over a tawdry financial scandal, when he should have resigned years ago when he commented that he didn’t understand why the Soham murders got so much public attention.
105. Who cares? Splitting the infinitive is a pedantic concept which has no real basis in the grammar of the language.
Radio 5 chap suggests it was Boris taking chair of MPA yesterday that caused Sir Ian to resign today not the Mail stuff. Not sure myself - maybe a bit of both?
110 - Quite.
109. might help Barr though…
108 - If Ron Paul had taken the Libertarian Party nomination instead of Bob Barr, I think he’d be polling about 6% at the moment.
115 Morus. Ron is on the ballot in Montana.
Does anyone know if the spreads are better at predicting elections from a few weeks out rather than polls. - I guess it would depend how long they have been available.
Is there a next Met Chief market ?
Morus (or anyone else in the US)
Has anyone in the US mentioned McCain and his role in the Keating Five during this latest kerfuffle over financial markets?
101. About now…on fivelive
102 S&S
Let me be absolutely clear what the objection is here.
There is no problem with partisan Sites, articles and presentation. When I go to Kos, I know what to expect by way of commentary and I can discount accordingly. As long as they don’t misreport the numbers, I don’t care.
Kos uses the same polling organisation all the time. It is one that tends to give the Democrats high marks. That doesn’t matter. It’s the trend that’s important and they don’t fix that. Nor do they cherry pick, which is the accusation against RCP. If they did, they would be very dangerous, particularly for those of us who supplement their income by betting on politics.
States won betting (cont’d) On the Obama side of the equation, the odds with Betfair on him winning 26-30 states is evens, which looks good value. Rather than take the 5-1 on him winning 31-35, it’s better to take the virtual mirror image of this bet by backing McCain to win 16-20 states. AFAIAA, the Sate count in all cases excludes Washington DC.
115 - He’s on the ballot in Montana (without his agreement) for the Constitution Party of Montana.
“The CNN/Time Opinion Research poll shows McCain leading Obama among likely voters by 11 points 54 percent to 43 percent in a heads-up battle. The poll of 1,007 respondents has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
But if third-party candidates are included in the question, McCain’s lead slips.
Likely voters pick McCain over Obama by 9 percent in that case 49 percent to 40 percent. Paul draws 7 percent.”
http://www.kxmc.com/News/278903.asp
120 - Great thanks.
it was boris
125 - Quite, I am just wondering if Jacqui Smith will try to play this for partisan advantage?
117 ChrisP
They were miles out in 1997! That was when I first realised you could make easy money betting on politics, as long as you bet with your head rather than your heart.
(Btw, NickP is a Clinton man.
)
Betting update: IG Index is running a spread market on the Tory share in the next YouGov poll. The spread is 45.75 - 46.25. I think it is worth a small punt on a buy.
Isnt Rasmussen meant to be the most respected polling company by Republicans? (And they have Obama +7)
42: Nothing and nor should they.
Ed on the previous thread (290)
About your “professional forecasters”: Who might they be then?
Naitonwide? predicted first “flat” then later “low single digit” decline in house prices this year but already it’s about 11% with 3 months left. No doubt they will update this and get it right 6 months after the event.
Lots of intelligent comment here today about house prices, plenty of people with the correct analysis in my opinion. Particularly like the 100% true comment about 15% interest on a 1990 house price being infinitely preferable to a 7.5% rate on today’s price.
Based on 25 years even a ZERO interest rate on a £200K mortgage today would mean higher repayments than a 15% rate on a 50K mortgage in 1990 when you factor in the capital repayment.
House prices will revert to the long term mean of 3.5-4x median salary. History tells us though that they will in all likelihood overshoot on the way down as they did on the way up, so maybe 3x median salary. This means about another 35-40% from peak.
It is NOT different this time, (except that it may well be worse)
104- Morus, the Obama ad in question used the relevant line: ‘He admits he still doesn’t know how to use a computer, can’t send an e-mail, still doesn’t understand the economy, and favors two hundred billion in new tax cuts for corporations, but almost nothing for the middle class.’
If you think that’s all on the up-and-up and doesn’t show insensitivity to someone whose typing/computer use abilities are limited by war injuries, we’ll have to agree to disagree. The ad could have been crafted differently to focus on McCain’s familiarity with technology, for example, but instead it took the low road. I have a lot of respect for veterans myself although I can’t claim to have any great war heroes in my own family. This therefore strikes a nerve with me that perhaps isn’t the case for you.
131- Did the Swiftboats cause you the same anger over their alegations of Kerry?
Telegraph says Hutton is moving from Business post. Now Sky’s Niall Paterson says Benn is moving from the Environment.
http://tinyurl.com/4sdl3k
Sky Sources: Benn To Leave DEFRA
October 2, 2008 4:08 PM - Written by Niall Paterson
A DEFRA source tells me they expect Hilary Benn to leave the department in the pending Cabinet reshuffle.
My source says it is common knowledge within DEFRA that Mr Benn is to depart.
Where he will move to, if indeed he is to retain a Cabinet post is unclear – although, of course, the post of Transport Secretary is up for grabs.
The mood music in the Palace of Westminster at the moment is that the reshuffle will not simply be tinkering – although those in the major offices of State (Treasury, Foreign, Home Office) will remain the same, there will be a reasonable amount of mid-cabinet movement.
More news when we get it.
UPDATE: Another source at DEFRA confirms that everyone expects the move.
I’m also told that Environment Minister Phil Woolas is sitting by the phone…
129 Simon - Rasmussen are widely respected, period. See:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
But it doesn’t matter which pollster you pick as long as their methodology is consistent, because it is the trend that is vital.
That’s why we sometimes takes the pi*s out of ARG. It’s not that they are likely to be wrong, it’s just that they tend to be all over the place.
121 PtP: Let me be absolutely clear…
That just sounds sooooo Wilsonian! You weren’t one of his speech writers in your callow youth by any chance were you?
121- Ptp, I was being a bit sarcastic at 102. Your concern is entirely legitimate and you should of course attempt to inform yourself as completely as possible regarding the data you rely on. If RCP is indeed playing dirty pool, of course you, and anybody else relying on the data in any way, should know about it.
131. I don’t understand, that isn’t mocking war injuries at all. An allegation of Ageism or just that it’s a pretty stupid advert would be on the button, but war injuries requires a serious persecution complex.
“Environment Minister Phil Woolas is sitting by the phone”
Blah.
“Sir” Ian Blair will be going on December 1st. Does he need two months to sort out the gold plated pension?
131
I read your posts with interest but find your claims on that issue facical. I read it as criticing McCain as being out of touch in a technological age…
141 farcical.. sorry
The Liberal fellow putting the boot in now, the ex-copper
131 S&S
I dislike negative campaigning period. It’s one thing thing that puts me off US elections, where it seems moe prevalent than it is over here. I doubt that kind of ad would play very well here but US audiences seem to accept it as par for the course.
I haven’t seen it, but on the strength of what you wrote, it’s hard to see it goes beyond normal US limits. Am I wrong?
131. you are looking to be offended quite honestly, in some ways you are as bad as the people offended by that schoolkids obama t-shirt from the other week that you kicked up a fuss about, beyond parody.
132- Kerry deserved what he got because he was lying. Respecting veterans doesn’t mean they needn’t be called out on their lies, particularly when other veterans are uniquely placed to know the truth. The Obama ad, on the other hand, doesn’t attempt to refute a McCain lie about his war record; it merely attempts to use McCain’s war injuries against him for Obama’s political gain. How is that for nerve coming from a guy who never came anywhere near risking his life for his country?
140. Another thing the Tories need to do when in office is pass a Revocation of Titles bill to strip diverse unworthy persons of honours and titles received inappropriately.
136 That boring old fart, PfP?!
Let me be absolutely clear, as I said at the Bournemouth Conference, I have never and never will be….[cont'd p92]
131 - I think it’s a hell of a stretch to interpret ‘can’t use a computer’ (which in 99.99% cases, including [I would suggest, McCain] is because of cyber-illiteracy) to ‘that’s mocking war injuries’.
The point was ‘lacks the right knowledge, lacks the right experience’. Even if you are to take the most craven view of that advert, that it really was mocking injuries (but he can use a mobile phone, so why not e-mail?) then Obama is running not only the nastiest, but the most politically stupid campaign in history, because no half-decent campaign would ever risk coming close to doing what you’re suggesting.
So is Obama’s the most nasty and/or stupid political campaign in history, or are Republicans stretching out a tenuous interpretation to refute a fair attack? I’m going with the latter.
(For the record, few family in the military, but a cousin I didn’t know was killed in the Falklands War. I’m not personally sensitive to VA, but I like to think I’m not insensitive either.)
119 - I’ve not heard any mention of the Keating Five thing being dredged up again. It was more to do with undue influence than the financial markets per se - McCain was substantially cleared, with a little criticism for not being careful enough, but has a great ethics record since then. No more a part of this campaign than Tony Rezco.
Is he staying on to take the blame for the illegal immigrant sparkie* shooting ?
*Known as Saint Jean de Charles de Menezes on the BBC.
Re 131. I find the idea scary that someone who cannot work a computer could become the next President. This is such a key skill and not having an appreciation makes him ineligible. I always argued that there were massive risks having someone so old and so it is turning out.
By far the best GOP nominee would have been Huckabee.
137 Pax vobiscum, S&S.
I should have known you better by now.
What great news to hear that Tony Blair crony Ian Blair is resigning! Slowly but surely, the New Labour regime is crumbling before our eyes!
131 If Prof Stephen Hawkins is able to use technology to the extent that he does with his level if disabilty, I think it is rather lame to defend McCain’s technophobia because of his disability. Where there is a will there is a way.
151. Huckabee against the bailout with Condi as Veep ?
Would have a big chance…
146. “it merely attempts to use McCain’s war injuries against him for Obama’s political gain. How is that for nerve coming from a guy who never came anywhere near risking his life for his country?”
Obama never had the chance in fairness, unlike a certain Mr George W Bush…
I really think we need to have major police reform now, we need to split out the national function from the Met and dissolve this tri-partite issue. It is clear that in an era of London Mayors that the Mayor needs to have influence on the strategic direction of policing, but the national dimension needs to be split differently. We need a special national security police, possibly merged in with SOCA and the other national police forces.
77/78: If I’ve got this right Nate’s numbers are projections for what, based on current polling evidence, should happen in November, rather than being what would happen if the election was held today.
For example:
- From previous races he’s concluded that big leads tighten as the election approaches, so there’s something in the model that discounts some of the current lead.
- Obama’s win probability percentage - currently 85.4% - is greater than would have been produced by the same polling numbers three months ago. If today’s polls were coming out on election day, it would be even higher.
That means that if the model was perfect, you would indeed be onto a winner (on average) taking any odds substantially better than what his model gave you.
His model isn’t perfect because, among other things, it doesn’t take into account likely events this time around. For example, it has no opinion about how Sarah Palin will do in the VP debates against Joe Biden, or whether McCain’s team is great and Obama’s useless or vice-versa and will do something clever / stupid in the last week.
Punters also need to take into account the possibility that Nate doesn’t know what he’s doing…
132 Simon9999 said “131- Did the Swiftboats cause you the same anger over their alegations of Kerry?”
Simon, you seem to say Obama’s ad is acceptable because it is revenge.
151- Hey, when your VP canditate is asked what newspapers and magazines she reads to keep up with world affairs, and replies “All of them”, you’ve got bigger problems.
157 The whole frigging organisation needs root and branch reform, James, but I’m not sure where you start.
Sacking Sir Ian is probably as good a place as any.
149- If Biden thought it was terrible (take note, that was in fact his first reaction) and rights groups for the disabled thought it was in poor taste, then I can only conclude that there are two sides of perception to the ad and those who crafted it should have shown some sensitivity. Of course, sensitivity and negative campaigning rarely go hand in hand, so that’s probably asking a bit much. If McCain runs an ad that can be perceived as attacking Obama’s race, for example, that would deserve similar condemnation.
Blair couldn’t use a mobile phone until he left office, Bill Clinton only sent two e-mails (because they are a matter of public record) before leaving office.
I sort of expect technophobia in leaders - Obama will be appointing a CTO (Chief Technology Officer)
This is a political landmark - the London Mayor has effectively gained a veto over the identity of the Metropolitan Police Commissioner. Good for democracy.
Of course, in an ideal world the post would be directly elected, but we can’t have everything.
Blimey, the LibDems have called for a tough professional replacement to Blair, “we don’t need another wannabe politician”
Strange times indeed.
145 Actually, if true, the Obama ad is offensive.
If it is trying to imply that someone is out of touch or ignorant when the reality is that they are disabled, it is incredibly offensive.
Perhaps for someone in a wheelchair you would say they dont even use the stairs?
Since McCain is qualified to fly late 60s/early 70s jet fighters, I think he should be able to use a computer.
163 - The technophobia probably arose in the light of Nixon’s experiences with technology.