October 6: Happy birthday Brown’s biggest cock-up!
October 6th, 2008Is Jackie Ashley right - is it now “Emergency Labour”?
I thought that we could not let this day pass by without recalling that it was exactly a year ago, on October 6th 2007, that Gordon Brown recorded his fateful interview with Andrew Marr calling off a late autumn general election. Everything about the current political situation derives from that point which saw a U-turn in both Brown and David Cameron’s fortunes.
For the extraordinary media honeymoon that Brown had enjoyed until then came to a sharp end - driven, looking back, by his refusal to concede what was clear to the world that Labour’s changing position in the polls was the reason that there had been a change of mind.
From that moment on the electorate and the media viewed Brown in a very different way, the tag of “ditherer” has been firmly attached to him, and he has simply been unable to recover. For the lack of a bit of candour people stopped believing him and when that happens it’s usually terminal.
She writes: “.If you look at the polls, the public wants Emergency Labour to see the country through this crisis..Labour’s problem is that the polls are equally eloquent about what should happen next. After thanking Brown for quelling the storm, the public wants to boot him out. He can only deal with that by moving on from Emergency Labour and providing a sense of direction.”
Will he be able to do that? How is the Mandy move going to shape up? Will Brown’s new Business Secretary end up being his executioner as the Spectator’s Fraser Nelson has so eloquently suggested?
We should get the first polling reaction to the latest developments this evening with the October survey by Populus for the Times.
Mike Smithson
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Good to be reminded that Gordon Brown was “getting on with the job” a full year ago.
And he’s still trotting the same old stuff out.
Cant’t believe two people up this early.
Great, great picture on the front page of The Times website:
http://tinyurl.com/2fxo8n
Not a single word is required!
2 Cheltboy, I’m getting into training for tomorrow night’s second Presidential debate.
Reshuffle talk about forcing controversial legislation through the Commons is not good news if it means more pointless attacks on Labour’s own supporters. No-one has told Brown to stop digging. No-one has told him controversial means people won’t vote for you.
The biggest cock-up was failing to call the election, failing to realize this was by far the best chance of securing a genuine mandate.
The second cock-up was a strategic one of letting speculation run wild forcing him into a corner, leaving the impression of indecision and cowardice.
The third cock-up of being less than sincere in his explanation is a much milder crime in my book. Most of the public won’t have seen the Marr interview and I don’t think people necessarily expected Brown to concede that he thought he might lose.
Could well be a decision that haunts Gord to his grave.
I have a lecture in 4 hours. Ugh.
Who cares?
Malcolm
I have no doubt his decision on that fateful day will haunt him to his grave, along with a myriad of other poor decisions and perceived slights.
We could start a scrap book for his retirement present and get Cherie to sign it?
6 Cock-ups 4a and 4b on your basis must surely have been to give an exclusive interview of his No GE decision to Mr Jackie Ashley, compounding this error by then allowing him to announce the news to the rest of the media gathered outside No 10, for which Brown not surprisingly has still not been forgiven.
2. Normal people who are awake at this time are still up, not already up.
8 Onyer, Malc!
Brown is just throwing everything into the mix in a very vain attempt to hang on to power. Even subjecting the country to more Mandelson. I mean, what is likely to have 99% of the country really hating him? Bring on Peter Mandelson!
Meanwhile, over at SNL…
http://www.nbc.com/Saturday_Night_Live/video/clips/vp-debate-open-palin-biden/727421/
10 - I wonder if Marr appreciates how instrumental he was in turning the media against Brown? Btw, a good article by his wife in the Guardian and probably the only article by Jackie Ashley I have ever managed to finish without throwing something at the wall. Gone is the usual NuLabour tub thumping and rants against the opposition and for once some honest critical analysis.
She appears more dumb founded than impressed by some of the choices Brown has made in his latest cabinet shuffle and has few qualms in stating that these measures are to shore up Brown’s position as leader rather than for the good of the country. Shame it’s marred (no pun intended) by the usual ‘progressive’ platitudes tacked on the end, more as an after thought than with any genuine conviction.
The Nikkei 225 Index is currently down 485 points, or 4.4%, gulp!
14 now down 5%+. its goner be an ugly day for markets. Still lets look forward to the first meeting of Gordons National Economic Council meeting today….. I am sure they will be ‘getting on with the job’ of doing nothing……
14. Now down 4.7%. Hong Kon down 3.3%
Re the Baroness Ashton thing from the previous thread. I doubt anyone even spotted the problem in advance. Have people forgotten about Blair ‘abolishing’ the lord Chancellor already?
I thought the problem was that of MEPs being members of the House of Lords. Baroness Ashton is destined to be a Commissioner. Does the rule apply in this case?
15/16. And they can’t blame the short-sellers now.
The reshuffle sacking I just don’t get is Tom Harris. He comes over as competent, communicates confidentally, hasn’t made any noticeable cock-ups in his ministerial job, brought with him a knowledge of transport from outside politics, is maddeningly loyal to the party and is liked outside partisan theatre by others.
Granted his blog did throw up some unhelpful stories but he took them on the chin and they didn’t go past the usually damaging days of the news cycle.
Considering who has been brought in (is it true about Sion Simon?) and who has been left (he’s head and shoulders above Ann McKechin) I just don’t get it.
As has been suggested here this seems like a party political reshuffle - bring in X and Y to appease that wing; dump guys doing their job to create some space for them; leave the mediocre or potentially incompetent because it might create undue upset, and then sack a loyalist because, well, he’ll keep his mouth shut anyway.
I get the feeling that Brown will just stir up even more party loyalists with this eclectic reshuffle as it rewards plotters and factionalists whilst pissing off party loyalists.
15 Kas, you could be right about the effectiveness of the Council. It will have 17 members and numerous supporting structures, far too many to give an effective response in a fast moving situation. I seem to remember churchill had 5 or 6 in his war cabinet.
In my view, Lab would have lost it’s working majority last Oct, but remained in govt. Not a bad outcome, given current position. So not to call election was a mistake for his party …but not so for Brown himself, whose credibility would have been shot by this outcome, albeit perhaps unfairly.
The BIG, BIG mistake was letting everyone know there was going to be an election. That’s what should haunt him. Pretty much cost him any chance of ever being elected PM.
20 Brown has at lower levels dismissed anyone that he had doubts on as regards loyalty to Brown - Tom Harris made some noises about Cairns that will have been noted.
On a lighter note the Guardian reports that Brown’s reach goes further than we thought “Bryant, a former church of England vicar is made shadow deputy leader of the house” - does David Cameron realise he has a new frontbencher?
15. So has Brown abolished Cabinet Committees? Perhaps his next step is a Royal Commission on the restructuring of the banking system.
Perhaps the response of the markets will reveal the psychological flaws, but Brown’s attempts to deny any part in the credit crunch or banking crisis and to shift blame and responsibility to the Americans, and an over sxhuberent wunch of bankers is disingenuous to say the least. Perhaps he could comment on how PFI was financed or why he sold gold. Mr No More Boom and Bust implodes before our very eyes, has anyone seen Prudence, I fear for her safety.
Could Alistair Darling do-it-in for Brown…? Will he pin the blame for our worsening economic situation on the man who refuses to admit liability, or will he wimper like his fellow-countrymen did at Flodden?
I think he has got the balls. He will not want to be the patsie, and has no-truer Scot then Norman Lamont as an example to follow.
AD must define his budget, to his rules, and explain how and why the old system was fundamentally flawed. [Or mentally flawed, but I leave that judgment to Guido and our very own Financier.]
If Gordoom insists on writing the budget AD should refuse to deliver it. Can you do that AD…?
This “Economic Council” is such a joke.
Membership
• The Prime Minister (Chair)
• The Chancellor of the Exchequer (Deputy Chair)
• The Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs
• The Secretary of State for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform
• The Secretary of State for Innovation, Universities and Skills
• The Secretary of State for Children, Schools and Families
• The Secretary of State of Energy and Climate Change
• The Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
• The Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
• The Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government
• The Secretaries of State for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
• The Chief Secretary to the Treasury
• The Minister for Housing
• The Minister for Science
• The Minister for the City
• The Minister for Economic Competitiveness and Small Business
• The Minister for Communications, Technology and Broadcasting
The Cabinet used to be smaller than that!
How good is HSBC! Set to only open 1% (!) lower.
Fluffy - really, at your age! Alistair Darling isn’t REAL - he’s a glove puppet. You can tell because you never see Gordon’s hands when Alistair’s mouth is in motion.
You’ll be persuading us that there are real Gnomes in Zurich, Fairies in Frankfurt and Pixies in Paris next - although those are infinitely more plausible.
I love the way the European response is going. Gordon banging on about maintaining “Stability”. (”stability”, “crisis”, “decisive”, “doing whatever it takes”). Reporter says that Euro countries are discussing “loosening the rules of the Stability Pact”!
Fascinating insider’s view of the John Smith interregnum, the Granita deal, the Gordy/Mandy feud, etc:
‘A Nightmare On Downing Street
- Mandy’s Return Signals Defeat For Brown’
by George Galloway MP
“All we need now is Charles Clarke going on a diet and declaring he’s found new love for the PM, David Blunkett promising he’s given up the burds and ready to roll in Whitehall again, “Dr” John Reid defecting back to the English premiership and Tony Blair’s five houses being repossessed on account of the credit crunch, and having to go back to work in Downing Street.
Then we have the full package.
Nightmare on Downing Street.
But the role of Freddie Krueger could be only one man’s - Mandy.
I have known Peter Mandleson for 25 years and can provide some balance to the hysterical media coverage of the third coming.
New Labour was created by three Scots - Gordon Brown, my researcher and later Kinnock aide John Reid and the now Newcastle MP, then union leader, Douglas Henderson. And Peter Mandleson.
The young smarmy lawyer Tony Blair wasn’t even a bit player at the time. And therein lies the problem.
In those days, and it is crucial to grasp this, there was NO QUESTION among the Brownites - despite Blair’s high media profile in the previous year - that anyone but Gordon would eventually succeed to the leadership.
The big October surprise he has now sprung is therefore all the more inexplicable.
He hopes he has staunched the possibility of a Blairite rebellion after Glenrothes, or after the European elections next June.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/comment/columnists/lifestyle-columnists/george-galloway/2008/10/06/a-nightmare-on-downing-street-86908-20777379/
I am surprised no-one has picked up on Ashley’s astonishing interpretive/deductive powers. From polls which have routinely turned out Conservative leads of 10-20 points to the question of “how would you vote in a general election tomorrow?” she deduces that the public’s real message is that they would like to be governened by Emergency Labour for an indefinite period and then for Brown to resign. Blimey. We should all be careful what we say to pollsters from now on. Perhaps watch the intonation in your voice when you say your party choice. And make sure you are alone so nobody can whisper down the phone “by which I mean Emergency Labour for the time being and then the Tories when it is all a bit safer” after you have cast your vote.
More seriously, the Guardian now has a serious credibility gap amongst its commentators - almost as a unit they failed to analyse Brown with any measure of detachment and thus uniquely amongst the major newspapers failed to sound any note of caution. And they followed this with the odd suspension of judgement in the London elections, when they portrayed Boris as a child-eating tub thumber. Then of course there was the doomed and farcical “operation Clark County” - Republicans must be praying for another helpful intervention this time.
Lindsay Roy! Hello, hello! Come out, wherever you are! Yoo-hoo… Lindsay… wheeere-aaaare-yoooo! Its playtime now. Dinnae be shy.
I wonder if Blunketts return is a move prompted by Mandelson? Spend a couple if months rehabilitating him, easier now as The Dark Lord has returned. Then Mandy weilds the knife from his seat in the Lords, and the Blairites rally round Blunkett as a caretaker leader?
A Welsh Conservative AM holds up Alex Salmond as a role model:
‘Jones in ‘mindset’ call to AMs’
Mr [Alun] Cairns [Conservative Assembly Member for South Wales West] said he had legal advice the Assembly already had the power and argued that if a bolder figure such as SNP leader Alex Salmond was in Mr Jones’ position he would pass the toughest law possible.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/welsh-politics/welsh-politics-news/2008/10/06/jones-in-mindset-call-to-ams-91466-21972224/
I must say that looking at Welsh politics from a Scottish perspective is a real eye-opener. It makes you realise that in self-government terms Scotland is miles and miles ahead. Almost over the horizon.
FTSE down 4.5% already. Never mind the NEC will sort it all out in their meeting today.
19…there is nothing to stop you “shorting” any of the stock market indices from around the world.
Brown’s ‘War Cabinet’ (as Robinson tried to get him to call it) is simply too large, as pointed out above. When you have dozens of people, most of whom have their own full time jobs to do, meeting just twice a week, how much can they realistically do that wouldn’t occur anyway?
A leaner group might be a bit more effective.
37 “A leaner group might be a bit more effective.”
But then there would be less peple to carry the can - heaven, some sh1t might even stick to the PM!
38, that may have been in Brown’s mind. However, he’s the PM. If the economy goes into recession (highly likely) he’ll carry the can anyway.
It seems to be designed specifically to pontificate and dither. The smaller the committee, the more decisive (all else being equal).
6, 22 I am still amazed how much “traction” this story appears to hold. I cannot get over the fact that the media allowed themselves to be gulled - yes, gulled - into believing there would be an election. Frankly, there has not been an Autumn election since 1974, when it was forced by the political situation in Parliament. And there will not be another unless the facts of voting power are that Government can no longer govern. The system and the official timetables are in place for it not to happen. The Civil Service would be disrupted, the political parties’ active season would be disrupted, business and the financial world would be disrupted.
What I say to the media (including bloggers) is “get over it”. Gordo made a huge error allowing the speculation to run out of control. The problem then was, you had the three party leaderships with an interest in hyping up the speculation - Labour, because allegedly, they thought they could “destabilise” a perceived weak Tory Party, the Tories because they needed to demonstrate at that time they were stronger than people thought, and the Lib Dems because they thought it was a way of protecting Ming’s leadership (as was proved by events afterwards). Ironically, had such an election been held, all parties would have suffered in a way - Labour would almost certainly have lost their majority, the Tories would have gained, but perceived that they might have got an overall majority if it had occurred later, and the Lib Dems would have lost more seats than, say, under current circumstances. The electorate would have been forced into an untimely and apparently purposeless election and the choices that would have been given to voters would have been cobbled together on the spur of the moment.
So let’s all give thanks that Gordon realised that in time. I don’t expect most bloggers to agree, but I am sure many ordinary members of the public, and people doing serious jobs not in the political sector, would endorse that view.
37. Does anyone believe this is anything but a PR trick. Lots of people sitting around in a committee before Broen decides to do what he wants anyway.
40 But there *was* a real possibility of an election. I attended a meeting of London civil servants last October at which the point was made that at least one annopuncement of a restructuring had been postponed due to the possibility of an election. So people were working on the assumption there might be one.
“After thanking Brown for quelling the storm…”
If Jackie Ashley believes that the storm has been quelled - let alone by Gordon - then she, in company with the rest of the ‘Westminster Village’, really are are dwelling in cloud cuckoo land. When this ‘Storm’ is over, it will not have been quelled by anyone. The world will be a very different place and dear old Gordon Brown will at best be an irrelevance - end of prophesy.
41 It’s not a very good PR trick… let’s set up a committee and dither some more.
44. It’s just typical Brown then.
How can Brown spend the weekend meeting Merkel etc to agree joint action on the banking crisis and then Germany takes unilateral action the very next day and our Govt is in the dark? WTF did Brown agree with Merkel? That meeting now looks like it was only a photo opportunity spun into the media to play it up as some grand big deal.
Ever feel duped?
43 These economic woes do look to be turning into a forest fire that keeps breaching the latest fire-breaks. 700 billion dollars pledged on Fridy - and since then, several trillion dollars have been wiped off stock markets.
There is perhaps a dawning realisation that no-one knows how to beat this.
46, not on this occasion.
The notion the EU could take a US style approach was always nonsense. Although EU-wide GDP and population is roughly comparable, the EU is just 27 separate countries that vary hugely. The budget is, though obscene, nothing in comparison with the USA’s resources.
laughable. no one has any faith in them to sort this out. see markets for info. get stocking up on food and keep more cash than usual at home - probably sensible.
35 and others. Good morning folk’s.
I warned last night that Markets would fall this morning. But I was thinking princibly of the DOW. So, Europe got in first.
40 - Tim13 say ‘Hello’ to Dolly and Gordon for us.
Happy Birthday, dear Cock-Up, Happy Birthday to you.
You have a card from the Times:
“Gordon Brown is preparing for a humiliating climbdown over his proposal to hold terrorist suspects for 42 days after being told that it will be defeated in the House of Lords.”
O/T but I did wonder why the BBC used the photo at bottom of this page to illustrate the European Summit - who/what has disappeared from between Barruso & Sarky - is it Mcavity Brown or had Mrs Merlkel made a runner?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7653133.stm
Now the fun begins:
‘Murphy’s Snp Tax Plan Blast’
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/news-feed/2008/10/06/murphy-s-snp-tax-plan-blast-86908-20777640/
‘Jim Murphy accuses SNP First Minister Alex Salmond of rigging independence referendum’
… Mr Murphy accused the Nationalists of making “petty, part-political jibes” about the global financial crisis and criticised the First Minister’s economic plan.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/scotland/3140957/Jim-Murphy-accuses-SNP-First-Minister-Alex-Salmond-of-rigging-independence-referendum.html
The cheeky wee runt. Indulging in “petty, part-political jibes” is Mr Murphy’s stock-in-trade.
48 but the media lapped it all up and gave long video pieces showing the leaders meeting. Do they not feel duped?
Oh cr&p. Darling about to make horrible mistake. You cannot push a recapitalisation plan without stabilisation. If you try that, the management obsesses with avoiding new capital and rumours sweep the market - causing panic. Let’s hope I’m wrong.
53 Barruso, pointing to Sarkozy’s shoe:
“I think you stood in the Brown economy….”
From the Daily Mash
“Senior editors at the Guardian and Independent are expected to work through lunch to maintain a steady supply of pieces about hubris, deregulation and why Marx was right all along…
“Meanwhile at the Guardian, Jonathan Freedland and Polly Toynbee have been ordered to invent 50 brand new excuses for why socialism failed the first time and 50 exciting reasons for why it cannot fail the next time.”
55, shocking that the media could be so very wrong, eh?:P
Reminds me of when they all thought Davis’ resignation was a mid-life crisis, whereas 95% of the people thought he was standing up for his beliefs.
The media will do what it usually does: pretend they never said what they did and carry on.
52 Mirthios, so Baroness Ashton’s punishment for failing to get 42 days through the Lords is a tax free higher paid job as our EC trade commissioner. A job which requires a very high level of negotiating skills, something she clearly lacks…..
Utter madness.
56. Policy is being made up from day to day, with no evidence that those in office - or indeed their advisors - have anything other than the most superficial understanding of the issues. Very worrying.
59, Morris Dancer, I think it is a mistake by Brown to make them feel duped. It will eat at them and the next international stunt they will treat with in a more circumspect way.
54 Isn’t Ian Gray supposed to be doing this job? Why are British (ie mostly English) taxpayers paying for a supernumary Leader of the Scottish Opposition?
62, was it Brown though, or just their own lack of proper critical thinking?
61, this has been remarked upon before. The present government is fixated upon very short term tactical thinking, with no view either to a broader, longterm strategy or, even more importantly, what’s best for the country. At this rate they may leave behind scorched earth, but not intentionally.
Jonah strikes again as Mandy taken to Hospital.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1772652.ece#OTC-RSS&ATTR=News
64 - They’re going way beyond scorched earth, we’re heading into salted earth territory.
TC - was that Baroness Ashton? I thought it was ET’s grandma.
65 Mandy suffers from kidney stones, eh? Oddly, so does Karl Rove.
Rather than any renal function, they must actually be a product of the Machiaevellian mind….
Interesting interview with Ruth Kelly, not especially for political content but for those of you who may be thinking of taking up politics full-time:
http://women.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/women/article4886642.ece
Ruth is incidentally one of the nicest people in the Commons - like Oliver Letwin, she has instinctively good manners, the sort of person who holds the door open for a junior civil servant when they’re coming into a committee.
Yes, I was sorry to see Tom Harris go, and also of course my own boss Malcolm Wicks, who so far as I know is universally seen as having done a pretty good job. Most of these things aren’t factional (if Malcolm belongs to any faction, I’ve never noticed, and I’ve known him for 11 years): it’s simply a fact that if you want to bring in fresh people then others move out. Gives me more time to defend Broxtowe, anyway…
On topic: there seems some doubt about what the Germans are actually doing. But as in all confidence crises you do have to be prepared to react to events - it’s simply unrealistic to expect Merkel or Darling or anyone else to implement a set of policies and then sit placidly without changes for weeks while the hurricane blows around the world. But you have to look several moves ahead: we could, for instance, guarantee all bank deposits of all kinds, but when things have calmed down, would we and could we reverse that without setting off new disruption? Similarly, while the current consensus seems to be moving towards putting money into banks in return for shares, is that open-ended regardless of developments, until you perhaps end up nationalising them all?
65. Kidney stones!
BTW Iceland is going to have a disproportionate impact on the UK. The debt is far too great and Iceland too small. I think a firesale of Icelandic owned assets into a falling market. I also predict the FSA will be attacked (rightly) for not doing more to regulate Icelandic banks in the UK - this is Mike S’s point about high deposit rates. We must meet the deposit guarantee, but what about anyone with more than 50K in an Icelandic bank?
Overall, I think we are moving towards the right solutions, but every day of chaos will cost us in economic terms later. The correct actions are:
Stability (either by governments talking, if necessary by a blanket short term guarantee of all deposits and interbank lending)
Recapitalisation by the government and anyone else who wants to participate (this means existing shareholders and management get the shaft)
Adding liquidity to illiquid assets.
All are necessary, none by themselves sufficient. Overall cost to governments from here about $650 billion of which $200 billion in forgone tax revenues, $450 billion in capital injections. They may get some of that back in time.
Banks are going to be very cautious - so economic growth for the next few years will be low. The UK is heading for a real kicking as is the US and Europe is a mixed bag, but some places are in real trouble (Ireland).
69 - “we could, for instance, guarantee all bank deposits of all kinds, but when things have calmed down, would we and could we reverse that without setting off new disruption?”
Yes, actually. After the crisis has passed, start charging a fee (say 100 bps or similar) for all deposits thus guaranteed. Banks would leave the scheme voluntarily, driven by the need to make shareholders a better return, in a reasonably short time frame.
69. Nick, you still haven’t got a senior job.
Is that a punishment for blogging on PB?
68, unkind to Machiavelli.
69, the notion the government is thinking ahead is quite amusing. It took 6 months to finally decide what to do with Northern Rock, and almost a year for deposit protection to be raised to £50,000.
If the government had been thinking ahead it would never have achieved the impressive feat of racking up a large deficit during a decade and more of growth.
63. Phil C - “Why are British (ie mostly English) taxpayers paying for a supernumary Leader of the Scottish Opposition?”
Well, quite! Why are you?
It seems that Mandelsons kidney stone is more serious than at first thought. He is to have an operation. Emergency? They dont say. (BBC)
40 - I don’t think of General Elections as being as disruptive or as unnecessary as you suggest, but your comment misses the point.
I was one of the people who really started to change my view of Brown on the 7th October 2007 (the night of the 6th, I was watching France v New Zealand in Cardiff, and celebrating a decent 8/1 victory).
It wasn’t that the Election was cancelled that pissed everybody off (thought as a political junkie, I would have quite liked one) - it was what the cancellation and the denials said about Brown as a person. It came when his personal character was at its peak (post floods, just after Glasgow Airport), and it introduced the idea that he was uncertain in his decision-making, not wholly truthful about the political influence of the polls, and absolutely determined not to do anything that would risk him losing power.
It was the character-traits betrayed, and semi-truths told, and lack of firm judgement exposed that turned people off Brown. I grant you the media was just angry at having been played, but people were angry with Brown as well, and for different reason.
69. Thank you for confirming the government is indeed clueless as to what to do about this crisis.
76. Sounds like he sunk his teeth into something toxic.
And had a kidney stone.
Hey Ho PBers worldwide and in Bedford.
Meanwhile ….
Latest Amazon tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 56%
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76 From the Sun website
“Lord Mandelson was having dinner with health minister and world-renowned surgeon Lord Darzi to discuss NHS reform.
“The fact that the internationally-renowned surgeon was with him and unable to assist suggests it was a serious attack.”
He’s a surgeon… what was he supposed to do, borrow some knives from the kitchen and operate on the dining table?
69. Recapitalisation isnt open ended, but if you really believe that we need to nationalise (50%+ of outstanding shares) all the banks, then we are in far deeper doodoo than even the most pessimistic view of the present situation and yes we would do it, because the alternative is disastrous. Remember that the capital base of the banks is only a few percent of their assets.
Similarly stability - in order to avoid moral hazard, governments dont like giving blanket guarantees. They say stuff like the Germans said, but stop short of explicit guarantees. If this doesnt work (and no bank in a fractional reserve banking sstem can survive a loss of confidence), then we go to full explicit guarantees as the Irish have done.
Quite frankly with the collapse in confidence in banks, it has been clear for a while that we will need to move to explicit guarantees coupled with a recap plan + adding in liquidity for illiquid assets. We need to know who is insolvent and who isnt the recap will deal with moral hazard. The fact that Darling/Brown are too stupid to see this adds to my belief that they are indeed useless novices in a financial crisis adding fuel to the fire.
I predict the biggest FTSE fall today for many a year.
76 As a fellow kidney stone sufferer, having an operation is a pretty extreme outcome (although it may just be an exploratory - which involves going up through his - actually, I’ll spare you that detail.
Kidney stone pain (”renal colic”) is the most extreme form of pain known to man - only child-birth compares. So that thought at least will give some joy to certain memebers of the Cabinet!
76 Years ago when I was a student I had to accompany a fellow student (Iranian) to Kings College Hospital for an emergency operation for kidney stones - he was in huge pain, forgot how to speak English and needed a friendly face of someone he knew, so I ended up in emergency room with Iranian-English dictionary providing translation services. If Mandelson is in the same pain I really pity him - IIRC the student was given a lot of morphine once cause established.
83. FTSE sub 4000 before Xmas ?
86. It’ll hit well before Christmas IMO.
86, what is it now? Just checked the BBC, which is subject to delay, and it’s down precisely 5%.
42 PhilC I know! Everyone was put on alert. If you manage something you have to consider the options out there, and I have no doubt wasted a lot of time and money doing so.
Ed P If you think my post “astroturf”, that’s your problem. If you want to blame Gordo exclusively, you are allowing partisanship to take over. This whole episode, IMO, was hyped up by the media and Westminster politicians as a group. I explained I think Gordon allowed the thing to run out of control.
It would all be so much simpler and less hassle if we had fixed term parliaments!
82. Spot on Ken.
Another oh cr@p moment. The Icelandic government has abandoned plans for a package to rescue their banks - instead the banks will sell overseas assets. I really, really hope the FSA and the government are paying attention. This could represent a significant moment of confidence in the system - will they stick to the £50K guarantee?
89, but then we’d lose the capacity to view the PM’s character and judgement when it comes to selecting the moment to hold an election.
Or, indeed, not.
89 - Apologies if you feel insulted but when when a post continually refers to ‘Gordon’ the alarm bells ring. The same would happen with ‘David’ - the over familiarity causes uneasiness.
FTSE 4727 low 4698
80.
Looks like Obama is peaking in opinion polls at the right time
Courtesy of Bloomberg
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee John McCain in battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, according to new polls.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads 49 percent to 42 percent among Ohio voters, according to a Columbus Dispatch poll of 2,262 likely voters released yesterday.
The survey, conducted Sept. 24 to Oct. 3, shows a change from a poll by the newspaper before the parties’ nominating conventions, when McCain had a single percentage-point advantage. The state is crucial to the Arizona senator’s campaign, because no Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio.
84 - That particular exploratory operation is the only operation that I have ever had. If Peter Mandelson has had that one, he has (and I never imagined that I would write these words) my complete and heartfelt sympathy.
After that operation, it took me 2 days to summon up the courage to take a leak.
89 Not necessarily, there’s only one Gordon in public life so it’s surely often no more than a convenient shorthand. Especially as his surname’s a common one. I suspect people are more likely to call DC “Cameron” as his first name is a common one and his surname less so.
It was so nice to hear Yvette Cooper on the Today programme this morning. One feels so re-assured that all will be well with her hand on the tiller.
69 You weren’t on topic at all when you posted about Merkel. The topic is the election that never was, I doubt that you can tell us the truth but I think the fact that you avoided the matter is rather telling…
Oil has dropped below $90.0 a barrel.
GB should now make amends for last year, he should call a GE asking for a Doctor’s mandate, ‘To do whatever it takes’ If the country prefer Cameron and pals, so be it.
It would be interesting to see how a ‘Crisis GE’ would pan out.
Can Darling pull anything out of the hat today to restore any confidence at all ?
A monochrome delivery or something to stop the rot ?
Any advance on ‘whatever it takes’ most welcomed.
86/83. Possibly long before that date.
100 - Badly for Labour!
96 Fond memories of p1ssing barbed wire, eh?
96, ouch:(
Kidney stones are not something I would wish on anybody. (Well, excepting rapists and suchlike).
100, it would piss people off because he’d be seeking to exploit a huge crisis for his own gain.
It was when the media turned against Brown - but I think the killer was sitting behind Blair, on live TV, picking his nose, eating the bogies and wiping the residue on his tie.
89 - We do have fixed term parliaments, but with the option of the PM choosing to call one early.
What do you do if the PM no longer has a working majority? Keep bumbling along with government at a standstill, even if all parties would prefer an election?
As much as I loved the US primary season, I like that our election campaigns are restricted to the 17 days or so after they have been called. In fact, there’s nothing wrong with what we have at the moment.
The fixed-term parliament campaign got new momentum, not from converting a whole bunch of people who care deeply about constitutional affairs, but a bunch of Tories who were annoyed that their chains had been yanked and that the PM actually had the power to keep them waiting. See Iain Dale.
100. Coldstone. A “crisis election” might bring back memories of Heath’s “who runs the country?” general election. It tends to elicit a response from the public of “if you have to ask “who is in charge?” - then it’s obviously not you.”
One twentieth of the pension pot has gone before the kippers arrives at the breakfast table.
I wonder what is going to happen with the Euro, if every country is playing it’s own game the internal pressures on the Euro could be calamitous.
Expert on Bloomberg just saying that history shows these bank deposit guarantees historically always make the situation worse as the banks cease to operate in a commercial manner -the EURO looks in freefall - now down to 1.30 against Sterling -the Irish have a lot to answer for with their naive actions .
104 - Memories, anyway.
The stock market in Indonesia down 10% - officially a Crash?
Reports on Lord Mandelson are that he is attending the Economic Council and it is a small kidney stone. Presumably he is therefore dosed up with painkillers - not really in a fit state to help make crisis decisions.
113 - Yes pretty much, but it is Indonesia I wouldn’t worry too much!
111. Deposit guarantees by themselves are bad. Together with a proper recap plan it is less bad. The alternative is to have bank runs, which history shows is a lot worse than “banks cease to operate in a commercial manner”.
I recognise all the arguments about fixed term parliaments and agree that they probably aren’t appropriate given our system.
However, I think that serious thought needs to be given to reducing a parliament to 4 years, rather than 5. Four years has become the most common term these days and, assuming Brown hangs on, the last two times it has been exceeded are when the government has been unpopular and is just hanging on for as long as it can.
Of course, if the maximum is reduced to 4 years, would that mean that the standard becomes just 3? I doubt it personally. I think it would be a real improvement and would make effectively give us fixed term parliaments with the option to end things early if necessary (i.e. the government losing its majority).
114. Oh dear - another case for Dr Death to get his teeth stuck into.
108
Fine! it also produced an inconclusive result!
The difference being, that the ‘74 election was a totally internal affair, a struggle between the unions and the then government.
This crisis is being caused by (in the main) faults and flaws within the banking system,therefore its a world problem!
If the polls are saying, (and they seem to be) that the present government is best suited to deal with it, then this must be viewed as an opportunity.
GB has gambled with the Mandelson appointment, who knows he might get a taste for it.
p.s.
I had a kidney stone once, (I passed it) I didn’t think you could survive that much pain.
119 - Brown would be crucified if he tried!
I was going to suggest that we agree the abbreviation “WIT” for ‘whatever it takes’. Then I realised that including Brown and WIT in the same sentence was quite silly.
111. The next stage in this downward spiral would be exchange controls, of course. Impossible within the Eurozone as it stands, in theory - but could we see some kind of creeping move toward this, e.g. by governments imposing penal charges on deposit shifts…or even freezing deposits?
That kind of panic response would spell the end of EMU, in a similar way to the process by which Argentina’s currency board was undermined in the early 2000s.
117. Interesting call Keith. It would certainly prevent the paralysis of 1978-9 and 1996-7. But would it not make snap elections more likely by reducing PMs’ room for manoeuvre in the end-of-term period?
Out of interest, what is the situation in Scotland? From memory there are fixed four-year terms, but with a dissolution if the government is defeated on a vote of confidence - is that correct?
121 - Yes but the other phrase is ‘whatever is necessary’ which provides an even more amusing abbreviation!
A Glenrothes by-election poll. I wonder why Stuart Dixon hasn’t reported this one? He’s normally very fast on these things…
http://www.dunfermlinepress.com/pollresults.php
123 - Jack, Yes that is a real danger with it, hence my comment about the standard term possibly becoming three years.
However, I think that four years is generally recognised as the correct term for a parliament (I haven’t checked but I’d think it’s the most common internationally). If governments went any quicker than that without a good reason then I don’t think it would go down well with the voters.
A change in PM would probably be considered by many as being a good reason. If we had 4 year maximum terms then maybe Brown would have gone for it last year.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE (BUTT) poll of polls that indicates :
McCain 45% .. Obama 52% .. Others 3%
The PISSED Jack W Index with added SOAMES BIG MAC weighting shows :
McCain 147 .. Obama 287 .. Toss Up 104
Changes Since Last Projection - Georgia moves from Likely McCain to Toss Up McCain. Arkansas and South Dakota move from Safe McCain to Likely McCain.
Toss Up - Up to 5% .. Likely - 5%-10% .. Safe - Over 10%
Eliminate Toss Up States - 270 required for an Electoral College majority.
McCain 162 .. Obama 376
Obama is the 44th President of the United States of America.
……………………
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
ARSE …… Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
BUTT …… British Underpinned Tracking Totals
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
BIG MAC ..Ballot Indicies Grid Manifesting America’s Choice
114.
That’s what you get for being joined at the hip with Gordon.
119
Fine! take the chance, GB failed to twist on 17 a year ago, and look where it got him!
Surely if you see polls, saying that the public want you to stay, until the crisis is over, then we’ll turf you out, what’s the point?
Might as well take the chance, go now, and find out the, ‘truth.’
The best way out of a crisis, is to cause an even bigger one, then exploit it.
125 - Even Stuart has more sense than to waste time or energy to comment on a voodoo (aka Focus) poll such as that one.
99: true, sorry - we’re all so economy-focused that I forgot the thread topic was the election. On that, I can say as fact that it was under very serious consideration. I was in favour, but it’s water under the bridge now and the alternative histories are fun but very speculative.
I’m concerned at how many pbers have or had kidney stones… I hope I don’t get one.
132 Makes you wonder what name Mandelson posted as here?!?
FTSE testing 4700 now… eep
Incidentally, are we expecting a press release or suchlike from the NEC?
Bnaking sector: RBS down 13%, HBoS down nearly 16% (falling out of step with LloydsTSB again…)
134 FTSE now sub 4,7000….
137, shares in underwear manufacturers and toilet paper suppliers doing better than average.
DOW Futures off 250 ish… guess if we get a major sell off in NY then the DOW will test 10,000
Did our esteemed host ever provide an estimate of how many MPs post on this site?
re 140 No
Looks like the Germans could be back-peddaling, on the total cover scheme.
My own kidney stone situation was somewhat comic.
I’d returned from a run, felt a sharp pain in my side which got progressively worse. I suddenly went cold and collapsed. I recoverd left the house to visit the surgery, (near by) collapsed in the drive, recovered and staggered into the waiting room, collapsed knocking over the chairs. The receptionist screamed for the Doctor, who along with a medical student, dragged me to my feet.
The doctor drove me home, put me to bed, and gave me a shot of Pethadine. My wife arrived home to see the hypo on the bedside table, ‘What the hell have you been doing?’ My wife was at that time a District-Nurse working from that surgery, she immediately rang the Doctor, chewed him out, told him too get me to hospital and give me a shot of Morphine, which he did.
I passed it that night.
142 - I think it is dangerous that the politicians are acting on the hoof then backpedalling, it hardly imbues the market with confidence.
140. My bid would be around half a dozen, regularly. Three to four times that number sporadically.
142 “My own kidney stone situation was somewhat comic.”
My first stone evidenced itself when I was sleeping with someone I shouldn’t have been!! Much panic all round.
And how we laughed….
Have we got a PMQ’s this week?
I have been trying to find a comic line linking trying to pass a kidney stone and failing to pass the 42 days legislation
But I failed
Shame!
FTSE off over 300 points… and getting worse
Apparently, Victoria Derbyshire had a touch of the giggles on R5 when she read out that Mandy had gone into hospital
Oh dear…
146 - I imagine so, but doubt it will be that interesting.
48 - You have to wonder what is necessary and if Brown is doing it.
I am haunted by an image of this mornings meeting - the Dibley Economic Council.
Enter Lord Mandy Horton, accompanied by his son David “Milly” Horton and daughter in law Hazel Horton. Already seated Harriet Cropley, with a plate of rhubarb and pickle scones, Jack Straw Pickle, the clerk, and Alistair “Eyebrows” Trott “No, no, noo, nooo, noooo, yes”.
The Rev Brown, relatively new vicar who has upset many villagers since taking over the Parish, enters pursued by rough farmer Ed “Ballsy” Newitt….
152 -
Another u turn on the way…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7654102.stm
Every company in the FTSE 100 is currently in the red.
141. Thanks Mike, that’s fine. I just wondered whether you’d hazarded an estimate at some stage and I’d missed it.
145 - If they guarantee deposits the one day, and don’t the next, then is it all dependent on what day your bank fails?
Can you all remember how we cheered the first time the FTSE rose through the 4700 barrier in intra-day trading?
Disappointingly, it fell away again to close at 4,691.00.
That was Tuesday, 13th May - 1997, ten days after Gordon took over the Treasury.
Happy days!!
re 146. Yes there will be PMQs on Wednesday and for the first time since I worked for the BBC at Westminster in the days when Maggie sparred with Neil Kinnock I will be in the house watching live.
154 - Sheer madness. Government has broken down; they’re just flailing around, panicking and reacting to events. There’s no sense of strategic planning, it’s all tactical. Surely the UK deserves better than this?
Russia suspends trading after 15% drop… eek