What if the Republicans “flipped the ticket”?
October 6th, 2008Why £23 of my Mandy profit is going on PRESIDENT Palin
As I have reported before I continue to be intrigued by Sarah Palin. Is she up to something? Could conceivably she try to boot McCain off the top of the ticket even though we are just four weeks from polling day? Are there any betting opportunities?
All this has been reinforced by a column in the New York Times by Frank Rich in which he contrasts McCain’s health and his continuing gaffes with the way Sarah Palin is performing and how her unique approach is resonating with significant sections of the population.
He writes: “..So how can a desperate G.O.P. save itself? As McCain continues to fade into incoherence and irrelevance, the last hope is that he’ll come up with some new game-changing stunt to match his initial pick of Palin or his ill-fated campaign “suspension.” Until Thursday night, more than a few Republicans were fantasizing that his final Hail Mary pass would be to ditch Palin so she can “spend more time” with her ever-growing family. But the debate reminded Republicans once again that it’s Palin, not McCain, who is their last hope for victory…You have to wonder how long it will be before they plead with him to think of his health, get out of the way and pull the ultimate stunt of flipping the ticket. Palin, we can be certain, wouldn’t even blink.”
One element to bear in mind is that Palin has got form in this area. At every stage in her political career the male politicians who have helped her to progress have later found themselves being knifed.
Her latest public criticism of McCain for getting out of Michigan seems remarkable and suggests she is trying to distance herself from her running mate.
As to the betting £23 of my profits on Mandy not serving a full term with the EU has gone on Palin becoming next president. This produces potential winnings of £10,026. Crazy? Maybe - maybe not. Like all these things it is all about an assessment of probabilities. In my book there seems to be a better than 0.23% chance that this could come about.
If you think I’m wrong - fine. But are you 99.77% certain - if not then I have a value bet.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Surely, it’s just not possible.
She might take the lead on the ticket but no evidence to suggest she would beat Obama.
Good fun bet with winnings tho..
Cor! Talk about sneaky, lateral not to say Machiavellian thinking!
Though on second thoughts, she probably would do better than McCain - unless the bank bail-out fails, in which case JM gets voter credits for being iffy about it.
I think its more likely that she knows he’s going to lose and so she’s getting as much as she can out of it for herself.
Mike - take more water with it!
Is it even possible with Republican nominee selection rules?
3. Are you suggesting only a LibDem could think up this thread?
Do you win if McCain dies or is incapacitated? If so, is that before election day, before the electoral college meets or before inauguration day?
I think those are the crucial questions to assess the value of this bet. If you only win if McCain is dumped from the ticket, I doubt whether that is now even possible and don’t believe for a millisecond Palin would step in or win - and yes, I am more than 99.77% confident on that. But as a gruesome death bet, it seems decent value.
Very sadly PBers me thinks Mike Smithson has morphed into Roger !!
This reminds me of the comment I heard from an actuary about the National Lottery. He didn’t buy his ticket until 5.30 on a Saturday night because before that time he had more chance of dropping dead (aged 31) than of winning the jackpot.
I agree with the objections of Sean Fear and The Ghost of Harry Flashman. Also, presumably there would at least need to be another convention, at which point Messrs Huckabee and Romney in particular might have something to say about the matter.
This bet is worth considering on the basis that McCain wins and then dies or falls very seriously ill such that he has to stand down (or dies or falls very seriously ill such that he has to stand down before election day). But I think the bet is strictly in those terms rather than on the terms you’ve outlined.
On those terms, it isn’t a totally stupid bet. Will the bookies pay out on election night or on inauguration day?
And meanwhile ….
538 has an excellent article on Obama’s vastly improving chances in Georgia :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-georgia-small-improvements-in-black.html
7. Nope, just the opposite. In my experience Libdems usually only see what is right under their noses, sometimes not even that. Though they are pretty good at delusions….
I’d love to be a fly on the wall, though, when the campaign staffer comes into McCain’s office. “Hey, Senator, we’ve been assessing the polls and kind of thinking about game-changing strategies like you told us… and y’know we think we’ve come up with a good’un…”
Mike,
Would your bet pay out in the event of McCain/Palin winning the election and McCain having a fatal heart attack before inauguration day, leaving Palin as the only one on the ticket able to be sworn in? Because with all due respect this is surely the only remotely conceivable scenario for her to become next president - anything else I would have to say you’re wasting your money. No way is this even a 0.23% chance.
Mike, I think for payout you’ll require Obama to make a campaign losing gaff, for McCain then to win; and for McCain then to keel over/hand over to Palin before inauguration. She is currently a more divisive figure than McCain; and her Veep debate, where she outright refused to answer questions asked and instead gave rehearsed pat answers to questions she wanted to hear, has played badly.
Unconfirmed Ras tracker M-44/O-52. If confirmed it’ll be Obama’s biggest lead with Ras.
14 - Serious ill health requiring him to step down would be enough. That is rather more likely than him dying.
Of course McCain could drop off the ticket before the ticket and Mike could lay off for £3k-ish..
If McCain stood down in favour of Plain,and she contested Obama on November 4th,IMHO the result would be close to 1964 ie when the GOP was reduced to 5 states
18 - But can he drop off the ticket now absentee voting is already underway in several states? Just as a technical point, wouldn’t he remain on the ballot and therefore who would the bookies say had won if his ticket wins?
Great logic. waste of money.
8 - The constitution states that is the president-elect dies the vice president-elect becomes president inauguration day.
This could only occur however after the electoral colledge votes have been certified by Congress. If McCain was to die before this the electoral colledge could vote for whoever it wants. But that would probably be Palin anyway.
The latest YouGov/Daily Telegraph Scottish sub-sample looks much, much better for Labour, purely at the expense of the SNP. No change for the Tories or Libs.
Oddly there is not a separate figure for the SNP: it is just lumped in as ‘Other’. I have never seen a YouGov datasheet that lacks a breakdown of the ‘Other’ vote.
(% change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 43% (+4%)
Other (presumably nearly all SNP) 29% (+11% ?)
Con 17% (+1%)
LD 11% (-12%)
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/DT_03-Oct-results.pdf
Let’s introduce a little perspective here. Frank Rich is a very partisan Democrat. I’m sure he immensely enjoyed writing an article that constitutes an attempt to undermine GOP confidence and boost Democratic morale by painting the Republican position as sufficiently dire to consider such a wildly desperate move.
This is not an honest assessment by Rich. His articles all predictably come from the same partisan perspective. His analysis has no credibility and should be ignored by the serious betting community. The ticket WILL NOT be flipped.
19
Yep! this would be the result.
Palin! Barry Godlwater in a dress.
In 1964, he fought and won a bitterly-contested, multi-candidate race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. His main rival was New York Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller, whom he defeated in the California primary. His nomination was opposed by liberal Republicans who thought Goldwater’s hardline foreign policy stances would bring about a deadly confrontation with the Soviet Union. He would eventually lose to President Lyndon Johnson by one of the largest margins in the history of U.S. Presidential elections. Consequently, the Republican Party suffered a significant setback nationally, losing many seats in both houses of Congress. Goldwater carried only his home state and five (formerly Democratic) Southern states. Many Republicans at the time angrily turned against Goldwater, claiming that his defeat had significantly set back the party’s chances of future national success. (There was a minor controversy over Goldwater’s having been born in Arizona when it was not yet a state.)
Mike, Jeffrey Archer got rich on ideas like this!
From previous thread:
To all Labour Party members - if GB is forced out and you vote for Blears in the ensuing leadership contest then it could be said “witch hazel willow yew”.
25- At least the Goldwater candidacy served a purpose for the GOP by giving it an ideological identity and confidence in its future as a meaningful political movement. In the long run, Goldwater turned out to be a conservative trailblazer who paved the way for Reagan.
Flipping the ticket might result in as large of an electoral defeat as Goldwater endured but would not carry with it any identifiable compensating redeeming quality. It would be solely a matter of desperation and would play into the hands of the Democratic Party and its supporters like Frank Rich.
If Mike is right can we agree now he will restrict himself to telling us how he did it - perhaps max twice a week for the first year.
‘Glasgow East byelection result delays McConnell’s move to Malawi’
So Labour’s defeat in the Glasgow East byelection in July has had several significant, even bloody, effects, all of which suggest that Gordon Brown’s apparent disinterest in and complacency about his party’s fortunes in Scotland is over.
The two men charged with holding Glasgow East – David Cairns and Frank Roy – have been knifed, one way or another. Their boss, Des Browne, was dumped as defence secretary on Friday, so then jumped altogether.
The Glenrothes campaign is now firmly in the hands of a close-knit team of Fifers, including rising stars such as John Park, a newly elected MSP and former trade unionist at one of the local Labour movement’s power bases, Rosyth dockyard.
In the seven weeks since MacDougall’s funeral, Labour’s machine has run an intense local campaign, with carefully placed anti-SNP stories in Fife’s clutch of local papers, and exclusive interviews with the PM for local papers and radio stations.
The resignation of Brownite special adviser Paul Sinclair as Downing Street’s Scottish media spinner last month may not be as calamitous to Brown as it appears: Sinclair had fallen out with key people in Holyrood’s press corps, so his effectiveness was in question.
If this was not political enough, there is even a cabinet level post now dedicated to saving Brown’s legacy, Scottish Labour and the union. Jim Murphy was made a full time secretary of state for Scotland last Friday.
Murphy now has a £7.8m budget and 55 staff at his disposal at the Scotland Office, and not much legislation to worry about. He was very keen on getting the post, and lobbied Brown for the role: he badly wants to be nat-basher-in-chief.
But these manoeuvres are probably the best compliment of all to the SNP; as we reported last week, Alex Salmond bemoaned Labour’s ineptitude and the lack of a Mandelson figure to put up some decent opposition. It seems he got his wish. Big time.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/oct/06/scotland.scotland
Let the nat-bashing commence!!
Sarah Palin on BBC… totally donutted by women!
I know this’ll really upset ‘ol Runnymead but could this be the reason the stock exchange has collapsed?
http://tinyurl.com/3velaa
Well God moves in mysterious ways, his wonders to perform!
31 - She is trashing Barack Obama over his Chicago contacts…
32 - Ruddy hell. And that’s just his face…
33 - I don’t think we gave her enough credit for her debate performance. After Couric we thought she’d be a disaster zone. She did OK.
Dow opened, down 142 points…
Sorry 168, er 189, oops194, 201, 231, 236, 240….
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 52%
Note - Yesterday M-44/O-51.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
36 - Pushing on the door of 10000!
“If you think I’m wrong - fine. But are you 99.77% certain - if not then I have a value bet”
I disagree with this logic. Unless you can bet 400 odd other times at 0.23% value bets.
ECVs: Sporting goes 312-318, Spreadfair 310-315 (for small money).
Mike doesn’t need Sarah Palin to become president for this to be a good bet. He only needs to be able to lay off at better odds later. All he needs is McCain to stand aside (or keel over). And there’s better than 1/4% chance of that happening. But he’s never going to win £10k.
Last night I reversed my position temporarily. If negative campaigning (which favours McCain) trumps economic melt-down (which favours Obama), then the odds on Obama are going to drift and i’ll be able to back him later at a more favourable price. In the meantime, for the next few days, if negative campaigning fails to make an impact, then Obama’s price is only going to tighten slightly. I hope!
Latest Battleground tracker :
McCain 43% .. Obama 50%
Numbers via Pollster.com
28. Have you read “before the storm”? It’s fascinating on the way Goldwater used (and was used) by the nascent political right.
http://www.amazon.com/Before-Storm-Goldwater-Unmaking-Consensus/dp/080902859X
Also, according to his diaries, Goldwater turned down the offer of becoming Veep under Ford.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-dean-and-barry-goldwater-jr/pure-goldwater_b_97027.html
43- I have not read it but, if you recommend it, I will add it to my list. Also, spurred by a recent conversation I had with a very pro-Democratic history teacher, I have an interest in finding a good book about the 1932 Hoover-Roosevelt campaign. Does anybody have a good suggestion?
44. I’ve heard good things about this, but not read it.
http://www.amazon.com/Electing-FDR-Campaign-Presidential-Elections/dp/0700615504
9 Alas, poor Smithson, I knew him well, JackW….
Seriously, if you think there’s a snowball in Hell’s chance of this happening, buy Obama on the spreads. His price will shoot up on any suggestion that La Palin is moving into the GOP driving seat.
That way you make shedloads whether she does or doesn’t. If she actually does, you sit tight and cream the profits. Obama’s EV count would have to be 450 minimum in this (rather improbable) scenario.
How’s the Dow?
47 - DOW-n!
10068 FTSE 4690
Can we call it Black Monday yet?
I think Brown will do
50 - Or call it even Blacker than Black monday, Blackest Monday and the Monday Blacker than that?
If the Dow gets under 10000, a heavily symbolical barrier and one “defended” by many automatic trades, then who knows where it will stop…
53 - Thats the danger… especially as VIX is now at a historic high!
Still testing the 10000…
The BBC continues its Labour bum-licking frenzy:
‘Murphy: ‘Judge me on my record”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/politics_show/7642922.stm
Here we go.
The Footsie does better than other european indexes. Probably because it fell more in recent weeks.
DOW under 10k
Dow about to go below 10,000….
Ooooops - it has.
DOW at 9988
DOW: 9994
Timber !!!!
58-59- Fasten your seatbelts…
Brown Monday ?
Mandy Monday ?
Bust Monday ?
DOW: 9,983.38 Down 499.47 (4.76%) [At 3:06pm]
Wish me luck, buying at 4681.
[60] - Time to put on REM then?
No wait, at 3:08pm it is now just above 10,000…
66 - Not Shiny Happy People obviously?
VIX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
30
Any idea what Murphy and his 55 staff will find to fill in their day?
- this may not be the last ‘meltdown Monday’…
Speaking of NuLabour,Mr Alistair”Whatever it takes”Darling will be on his feet shortly.
66 “Everybody cries….”?
DOW At 3:11PM : 10,003.69 Down 479.16 (4.57%)
Hmmm, whatever happens today, I would guess the US News aint going to be leading with Palins attacks. If the Economy remains the big news story of the campaign, is it wise for the GOP to stick with their line?
Markets crashing….I have to say I’m relieved - can you imagine the mess we’d all be in if Gordon hadn’t wisely set up his new Economic War Cabinet!!!
Interesting idea. More likely is that Palin is creating distance to give her space for a future presidential run.
35 - On her debate performance. She was folksy and spirited and used it as an infomercial for her campaign. She did well at that. As a debate performance, not so much. She didn’t demonstrate any depth of understanding, and on some issues flatly refused to answer. The format allowed her to avoid the getting pinned down as in her interviews. All the polls show Biden won and the trackers are showing further movement to Obama.
Is it me, or is the Bloomburg web-site s-l-o-w…?
Also are they stuck with the 15-minute delay a’la Al-Beeb, as the refresh is not updating the current price. Would not make any long-term investments until sans Christmas. Bye-bye many household-names I fear…!
Unless McCain dies or has something very serious this will definately not happen, and I doubt either if Palin would want it yet.
She would sink faster than McCain is at the moment as she just isn’t up to the task yet; just watch her Couric (sp) interviews. In 8 years time when she’s learnt her stuff and is a true heavy weight we well may see a, wait for it….
Clinton v Palin election as Clinton would surely be on the ticket and the GOP will need something to counter her, and that something may well be another women Palin. She will bied her time.
Dow 9975 and dropping!
37 - Some big state polls out from Rasmussen later too - Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Florida and Colorado. Essentially (taking NM/IO as read) any one of those is enough for Obama and he might possibly lead in all five.
69 http://tinyurl.com/4slu9t
6 month view of the so-called “Fear Index”
76- http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI gives you the DOW price with a small delay. Their FTSE price however has a 15min delay. Dont know if that aplies to the individual stocks
77. How old will Clinton be in 8 years?!
73. no, its complete madness surely
Oh dear. Where is it going to end I wonder…
Think Darling’s statement might make the FTSE drop still further before the end of play.
Got stopped out, dumb bet, oh well.
9952….
79.
Not quite Rasmussen but Obama seems to be “on a roll”
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee John McCain in battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, according to new polls.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads 49 percent to 42 percent among Ohio voters, according to a Columbus Dispatch poll of 2,262 likely voters released yesterday.
The survey, conducted Sept. 24 to Oct. 3, shows a change from a poll by the newspaper before the parties’ nominating conventions, when McCain had a single percentage-point advantage. The state is crucial to the Arizona senator’s campaign, because no Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio.
Mike’s’s thinking seriously ‘outside of the envelope’ - in this case right into the recycling shredder! The only part of the GOP ticket that’s ‘flipped’ is Sarah Palin.
82 She’ll be 69
RBS on the ropes - down 21% to all time low.
Can Gordo afford to bail them out too with our money ?
So where is the Dow floor…?
9900, 9800, … , 1929?
As GW Bush said - looks like this suckas goin’ down
Greg Clark to shadow Ed Milliband!
God Mike, are you trying to give me nightmares? Your bet makes some sense - 99.77% certain I am not (though I wish I was) and 10 grand would be some decent compensation for having to endure an Palin Presidency (there, I’ve said it).
Quite what the reaction in the rest of the world would be if Palin beat Obama, I don’t know. My guess is he would most likely win more easily, but I can’t feel sure of it.
Interesting abot Palin’S ruthlessness and possibly getting rid of McCain. I wonder if a male politician could get away with that? Palin’s act is so rooted in small town decency she might brush it off. She may have her limits, but as a performer she is first rate.
84.
Statement imminent, go on badger give it some sh1t* your country needs you !
87 - That is a mail-in poll with dubious accuracy. What is pleasing for Obama is that he has now been fairly stable for the last couple of weeks with his lead. If he maintains/increases it for another week I don’t see a way back for McCain barring a national security crisis.
Guido is reporting that Clegg has spilt the beans on mendacious Mandy…?
Odd’s on an medical accident in a London NHS hospital tonight or tomorrow…?
Lord Lamont looking very old…
Good job thay passed the bailout last week - else it’d be Armageddon on the markets
98. Well it is no time for a novice
95.
“Our economy is strong, stable and resiliant, and we will take decisive action to ensure that Britain is well placed to weather the global economic turbulence that started in the US sub-prime market”
You can arrange these words in any order
Oh, not forgetting to mention that this bust, the worst we have faced since the 1930’s, is nowhere near as bad as the 90’s under the Tories
A financial crisis AND Sarah Palin in the White House. What are you trying to do to us Mike?
77 - Clinton will be 69 by the time of the 2016 election. Younger than McCain but the odds are against her being on the ticket with young Turks like Mark Warner coming up on the rails. Realistically, her best chance of being President is an Obama defeat and another run in 2008. Although she could be an elder statesman VP pick in 2016.
98 I thought so too. I guess he must be old. Underlines how long ago 1992 actually was.
Dow tanking now, down over 400 now…
104 - Only 66… a spring chicken compared to our very own Jack W!
103 - The problem for Clinton is that a lot can happen in the next 8 years. Nobody had heard of Obama in 2000. A lot will depend on the success of the Obama Presidency.
Sterling already below $1.74….
106 JackW, it would be useful to hear how this feels compared to 1929 (and 1906 for that matter)
106 And her ARSE is almost as lovely…
The Badger: “Whatever is necessary”
“whatever is necessary” - wins the Darling cliche race!
The markets of euro countries are in total meltdown: more than 7% fall for both CAC and DAX
Good to see Darling proved right that banning shorts would turn the market - genius.
Dow below 9900…
Gordon really shouldn’t sit there allowing a grin to spread over his face
Really not seemly
IMO, the pressure of a woman president by 2016 would be huge, I suspect Palin will run in 2012 and maybe even win. As for Clinton, she will be unable to run until 2016 if Obama wins. She could challenge Obama in 2012, but it’s unlikely - But you never know!
Gordon Brown been a diaster the Credit Crunch; it is no apparent he is just rotating through policies in a hope for a miracle!
Everyone can see his much vaunted short-selling ban for 120 days has made no impact on the Stock Market’s gyrations (failed policy).
After turning up his nose at selling Northern Rock to LLyods TSB he’s sold the much larger HBOS to them (failed policy).
The nationalisation of banks like Northern Rock has now been abandoned for selling banks to other financial institutions (failed policy).
The Bank of England giving credit to financial institutions has not stopped the banks going bust(failed policy).
The selling of banks to other banks is apparently going to be abandoned (according to the newspapers) for buying shares in banks (failed policy).
Gordon Brown’s seems to be trying to get in the Guiness Book of Records for the most failed attempts to solve a financial problem!
Alledgedly, the voter’s like a to have a man whose a loser in a crisis.
I need to move to another country?
Did Nick lose his job in the end?
Nice of the BBC to show a FTSE tracker with the Chancellors statemetn!
120 FTSE heading south fast as his speech progresses….
…every country in the world - Europe included….
Has Darling let the cat-out-of-the-bag…?
121 - Nearly 400 points of now…
Darling will do ‘everything possible’ to ensure stability. So far it would appear that Government’s interpretation of ‘everything possible’ is platitudes. Where’s the action? We just get these same noble soundbites everyday.
We’re doomed - doomed !
If the DOW goes below 9800 will the trading floor spontaneous break into ‘Always look on the bright side of life’?
If I try to view the statement on the BBC website it just brings up a picture of Darling and a message saying “this content doesn’t seem to be working”
Says it all really!
124 - ‘noble’?
are you sure?
Meaningless would seem more appropriate.
That statement contained no content or policy
What is the point of this bunch?
122- “Because of the financial turbulence, the 27 EU members have agreed that stability can only happen if we stick together. Therefore we have decided to join together in a new country called the Federalist Dominion of the European Socialist Countries. Now let us sing the Red Flag twenty times.”
FTSE down 8%…
Another crazy William Hill price.
Democrats to win Colorado 1.66. Just helped myself to £500
If you want to hedge its 4.5 for the Republicans on PaddyPower. At a complete hedge thats about 24% profit in a month, better than putting it in the FTSE anyway!
Note maximum on PaddyPower is £59.39
Dow down over 500 points…
Someone must be making money out of this credit crunch. Who benefits from all this?
looks like the bailout worked then……..
we’re all going to the wall, aren’t we?
Dow approaching the 9750 benchmark….
Dow under 9800… now near 9750… near 550 points fall in a bit more than an hour.
Iceland gives unlimited deposit guarantee…
135 Sheeesh - that’s off 250 in half an hour - were they listening to the Badger?
Deja vu….
Crisis, world on the edge…
PM: “After a meeting with the German Chancellor, I have received assurances that….”
128. Pseudo-noble. They are just playing at crisis management. Saving their own arses basically.
Buying again 4590
133. George Soros presumably…
Will somebody please slap that grin off Brown’s face?
133. David Cameron’s backers - mostly spivs and swines.
Dam capitalists !
143 - The electorate will in 18 months!
145 He only seems to have the one petty point-scoring mode.
F**king Hell. I lived though 87 & the ERM. This is the daddy. I’m scared.
The “Fear Index” is up 17.5% on the day = Total bodily evacuation…
Ghost of Harry Flashman - where do you think the FTSE will be by Christmas…?
148 - We are heading for complete market capitulation…
BBC website leader is now:
“Chancellor Alistair Darling says the government will do whatever necessary to maintain stability of the financial system.”
Sounds like a novel idea. I’ve got a feeling I’ve heard that somewhere before though.
151 - How can you maintain something that doesn’t exist?
Only just realised, that both Alistair Darling and Norman Lamont went to the same school.
149. It will have gone lower then be around 5000 - then stagnate for 6 months.
141 I wish you luck EDW.
Beware picking bottoms at the moment though and look at the chart going back to 1999 extremely carefully before picking medium term levels.
Standing in front of a train and all that…….
155
am deep in the green now, baby!!!!!!!!!!!
Nearly 8% off!
I already have £40 on this at 490/1. Considering the lower prices you can get for H. Clinton and Al Gore it seems very attractive.
Sold, flat for the day, too hairy for me. Gonna buy some real stocks for the long term. No more futures today, even with guaranteed stops.
Dow rallying a bit. Only 450 points down…
Did Darling say anything relevant within that statement…?
Or was this just another example of the experience Gordoom’s team brings…?
Iceland guarantees all domestic savings….
What about the UK deposits, or are they covered by the BoE’s scheme?
161
No, waffle.
I’m buying everything including options.
142,144. Seriously apart from George Soros/Lord Ashscroft someome must be benefiting from all this.
161.
I will do whatever is necessary…..I will do whatever is necessary…..I will do whatever is necessary…….” would someone get this man off auto-repeat.
Anyone would “do whatever is necessary….”
What would be clever is if he could correctly diagnose what IS necessary and get on and DO it.
164. Philip Morris, Diageo, Punch Taverns, Rope suppliers etc..
163. 50bp cut this week now odds on, on Betfair - very thin market though.
165 Quite so. But sadly, nobody knows what to do to turn this around. “Do whatever is necessary” is the political equivalent of whistling in the dark.
Does noone care about betting on this site anymore?? How about some appreciation for my tip?! :p
“do what is necessary” = reactive not proactive - pathetic.
164,166 Insolvency practitioners, undertakers, pharmacists.
are they getting on with the job of doing whatever is necessary?
Here is an article discussing the concept of “reverse coattails,” which, in this case, would be Mark Warner’s Senate candidacy benefiting Obama at the top of the ticket in Virginia. But, more interestingly, the article discusses the rarely mentioned but real phenomenon of split ticket voters actually driving other races in the opposite direction. Since Virginia is a swing state, many voters there who will vote Warner will then be inclined to split their ticket in other races. As the article explains, McCain may actually gain votes in Virginia on the strength of the expected overwhelming Warner victory. Alternatively or additionally, Republican House candidates may benefit.
http://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-local_warnerfactor_1006oct06,0,3519582.story
169 Sorry, Noisy.
It’s a good tip and I had £200. Wouldn’t go heavier because Colorado is a bit unpredictable and the most recent poll gave it a tie. Intrade however makes it three to one on, so almost certainly good value.
Thanks and hat-tip.
167. If they did that it would probably push the pound down into the $1.60s.
I wish Spitting Image was still on TV
Can you imaging what they’d make of “Whateva” It Takes Brown and Darling
175 - YEs but to keep rates where they are will bear down too much on demand!
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 47%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100608.htm
176. They would be having a field day with all 3 parties. such a pity it’s not still on
175. Yes - who cares?
are the indexes being shorted?
All bias aside, how would everyone rate Brown and Darling’s handling of the economy since the crisis?
Putting aside your loathing for Brown, or the opinion that he got us into the mess in the first place, how do you all honestly think he’s done?
I think they’ve actually done really well.
New GQR/Democracy Corp national poll :
McCain 45% .. Obama 48% .. Barr 2% .. Nader 3%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/dcor100508fq13_pb.pdf
182. Whelan ?
OT
My charts suggest a bottom around October 16 to 22nd..
Big rally tomorrow,
And as FTSE is going down parabolically , the bottom could be around 4200, 4400 or even 3300..
Note: a bottom. Maybe not THE bottom…
181 - You cannot really short an index, you can buy futures but the index is merely an indicator of a complex basket of securities. The securities will all be traded independently and the index will be calculated according to a formula.
180. People whose wealth is denominated in Sterling. i.e. Most Brits.
Any irony regarding the headline and the picture ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7654878.stm
It is extra-ordinary really; Militant tendancy have won…we’re nationalizing the banks without compensation. Looks like RBS will be next (and they own Coutts!!)
182 - *adjusts monitor*
What is it that you think that they’ve done ?
Dow now stabilizing around -400 points, but still 4h30 to go
182
It’s a mess They have NO coherent plan . it’s all fire fighting. They need to have a plan to sort it out for the future, not bandaid every failing bank.
Basically as the FTSE and Dow fall, the Banks’ losses on derivatives gorw and they neeed to hoard more cash.
The banking system is close to seizing up: no credit cards, no cash transfers, no standing orders nothing. Seriously we are close to a total melt down.
Where is the plan? The US have one. It may not work but it is a plan…
I have a home cash balance enough to last 3 weeks and enough food for ditto. That is how bad it could be.
183. Jack W: That’s surprisingly good for McCain.
182. Very poorly. They have forgotten the adsage a stitch in time saves nine.
191 - Yes but we saw that the other day when it ended 777 points down…