What if the Republicans “flipped the ticket”?
October 6th, 2008
Why £23 of my Mandy profit is going on PRESIDENT Palin
As I have reported before I continue to be intrigued by Sarah Palin. Is she up to something? Could conceivably she try to boot McCain off the top of the ticket even though we are just four weeks from polling day? Are there any betting opportunities?
All this has been reinforced by a column in the New York Times by Frank Rich in which he contrasts McCain’s health and his continuing gaffes with the way Sarah Palin is performing and how her unique approach is resonating with significant sections of the population.
He writes: “..So how can a desperate G.O.P. save itself? As McCain continues to fade into incoherence and irrelevance, the last hope is that he’ll come up with some new game-changing stunt to match his initial pick of Palin or his ill-fated campaign “suspension.” Until Thursday night, more than a few Republicans were fantasizing that his final Hail Mary pass would be to ditch Palin so she can “spend more time” with her ever-growing family. But the debate reminded Republicans once again that it’s Palin, not McCain, who is their last hope for victory…You have to wonder how long it will be before they plead with him to think of his health, get out of the way and pull the ultimate stunt of flipping the ticket. Palin, we can be certain, wouldn’t even blink.”
One element to bear in mind is that Palin has got form in this area. At every stage in her political career the male politicians who have helped her to progress have later found themselves being knifed.
Her latest public criticism of McCain for getting out of Michigan seems remarkable and suggests she is trying to distance herself from her running mate.
As to the betting £23 of my profits on Mandy not serving a full term with the EU has gone on Palin becoming next president. This produces potential winnings of £10,026. Crazy? Maybe - maybe not. Like all these things it is all about an assessment of probabilities. In my book there seems to be a better than 0.23% chance that this could come about.
If you think I’m wrong - fine. But are you 99.77% certain - if not then I have a value bet.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Surely, it’s just not possible.
She might take the lead on the ticket but no evidence to suggest she would beat Obama.
Good fun bet with winnings tho..
Cor! Talk about sneaky, lateral not to say Machiavellian thinking!
Though on second thoughts, she probably would do better than McCain - unless the bank bail-out fails, in which case JM gets voter credits for being iffy about it.
I think its more likely that she knows he’s going to lose and so she’s getting as much as she can out of it for herself.
Mike - take more water with it!
Is it even possible with Republican nominee selection rules?
3. Are you suggesting only a LibDem could think up this thread?
Do you win if McCain dies or is incapacitated? If so, is that before election day, before the electoral college meets or before inauguration day?
I think those are the crucial questions to assess the value of this bet. If you only win if McCain is dumped from the ticket, I doubt whether that is now even possible and don’t believe for a millisecond Palin would step in or win - and yes, I am more than 99.77% confident on that. But as a gruesome death bet, it seems decent value.
Very sadly PBers me thinks Mike Smithson has morphed into Roger !!
This reminds me of the comment I heard from an actuary about the National Lottery. He didn’t buy his ticket until 5.30 on a Saturday night because before that time he had more chance of dropping dead (aged 31) than of winning the jackpot.
I agree with the objections of Sean Fear and The Ghost of Harry Flashman. Also, presumably there would at least need to be another convention, at which point Messrs Huckabee and Romney in particular might have something to say about the matter.
This bet is worth considering on the basis that McCain wins and then dies or falls very seriously ill such that he has to stand down (or dies or falls very seriously ill such that he has to stand down before election day). But I think the bet is strictly in those terms rather than on the terms you’ve outlined.
On those terms, it isn’t a totally stupid bet. Will the bookies pay out on election night or on inauguration day?
And meanwhile ….
538 has an excellent article on Obama’s vastly improving chances in Georgia :
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/in-georgia-small-improvements-in-black.html
7. Nope, just the opposite. In my experience Libdems usually only see what is right under their noses, sometimes not even that. Though they are pretty good at delusions….
I’d love to be a fly on the wall, though, when the campaign staffer comes into McCain’s office. “Hey, Senator, we’ve been assessing the polls and kind of thinking about game-changing strategies like you told us… and y’know we think we’ve come up with a good’un…”
Mike,
Would your bet pay out in the event of McCain/Palin winning the election and McCain having a fatal heart attack before inauguration day, leaving Palin as the only one on the ticket able to be sworn in? Because with all due respect this is surely the only remotely conceivable scenario for her to become next president - anything else I would have to say you’re wasting your money. No way is this even a 0.23% chance.
Mike, I think for payout you’ll require Obama to make a campaign losing gaff, for McCain then to win; and for McCain then to keel over/hand over to Palin before inauguration. She is currently a more divisive figure than McCain; and her Veep debate, where she outright refused to answer questions asked and instead gave rehearsed pat answers to questions she wanted to hear, has played badly.
Unconfirmed Ras tracker M-44/O-52. If confirmed it’ll be Obama’s biggest lead with Ras.
14 - Serious ill health requiring him to step down would be enough. That is rather more likely than him dying.
Of course McCain could drop off the ticket before the ticket and Mike could lay off for £3k-ish..
If McCain stood down in favour of Plain,and she contested Obama on November 4th,IMHO the result would be close to 1964 ie when the GOP was reduced to 5 states
18 - But can he drop off the ticket now absentee voting is already underway in several states? Just as a technical point, wouldn’t he remain on the ballot and therefore who would the bookies say had won if his ticket wins?
Great logic. waste of money.
8 - The constitution states that is the president-elect dies the vice president-elect becomes president inauguration day.
This could only occur however after the electoral colledge votes have been certified by Congress. If McCain was to die before this the electoral colledge could vote for whoever it wants. But that would probably be Palin anyway.
The latest YouGov/Daily Telegraph Scottish sub-sample looks much, much better for Labour, purely at the expense of the SNP. No change for the Tories or Libs.
Oddly there is not a separate figure for the SNP: it is just lumped in as ‘Other’. I have never seen a YouGov datasheet that lacks a breakdown of the ‘Other’ vote.
(% change from UK GE 2005)
Lab 43% (+4%)
Other (presumably nearly all SNP) 29% (+11% ?)
Con 17% (+1%)
LD 11% (-12%)
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/DT_03-Oct-results.pdf
Let’s introduce a little perspective here. Frank Rich is a very partisan Democrat. I’m sure he immensely enjoyed writing an article that constitutes an attempt to undermine GOP confidence and boost Democratic morale by painting the Republican position as sufficiently dire to consider such a wildly desperate move.
This is not an honest assessment by Rich. His articles all predictably come from the same partisan perspective. His analysis has no credibility and should be ignored by the serious betting community. The ticket WILL NOT be flipped.
19
Yep! this would be the result.
Palin! Barry Godlwater in a dress.
In 1964, he fought and won a bitterly-contested, multi-candidate race for the Republican Party’s presidential nomination. His main rival was New York Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller, whom he defeated in the California primary. His nomination was opposed by liberal Republicans who thought Goldwater’s hardline foreign policy stances would bring about a deadly confrontation with the Soviet Union. He would eventually lose to President Lyndon Johnson by one of the largest margins in the history of U.S. Presidential elections. Consequently, the Republican Party suffered a significant setback nationally, losing many seats in both houses of Congress. Goldwater carried only his home state and five (formerly Democratic) Southern states. Many Republicans at the time angrily turned against Goldwater, claiming that his defeat had significantly set back the party’s chances of future national success. (There was a minor controversy over Goldwater’s having been born in Arizona when it was not yet a state.)
Mike, Jeffrey Archer got rich on ideas like this!
From previous thread:
To all Labour Party members - if GB is forced out and you vote for Blears in the ensuing leadership contest then it could be said “witch hazel willow yew”.
25- At least the Goldwater candidacy served a purpose for the GOP by giving it an ideological identity and confidence in its future as a meaningful political movement. In the long run, Goldwater turned out to be a conservative trailblazer who paved the way for Reagan.
Flipping the ticket might result in as large of an electoral defeat as Goldwater endured but would not carry with it any identifiable compensating redeeming quality. It would be solely a matter of desperation and would play into the hands of the Democratic Party and its supporters like Frank Rich.
If Mike is right can we agree now he will restrict himself to telling us how he did it - perhaps max twice a week for the first year.
‘Glasgow East byelection result delays McConnell’s move to Malawi’
So Labour’s defeat in the Glasgow East byelection in July has had several significant, even bloody, effects, all of which suggest that Gordon Brown’s apparent disinterest in and complacency about his party’s fortunes in Scotland is over.
The two men charged with holding Glasgow East – David Cairns and Frank Roy – have been knifed, one way or another. Their boss, Des Browne, was dumped as defence secretary on Friday, so then jumped altogether.
The Glenrothes campaign is now firmly in the hands of a close-knit team of Fifers, including rising stars such as John Park, a newly elected MSP and former trade unionist at one of the local Labour movement’s power bases, Rosyth dockyard.
In the seven weeks since MacDougall’s funeral, Labour’s machine has run an intense local campaign, with carefully placed anti-SNP stories in Fife’s clutch of local papers, and exclusive interviews with the PM for local papers and radio stations.
The resignation of Brownite special adviser Paul Sinclair as Downing Street’s Scottish media spinner last month may not be as calamitous to Brown as it appears: Sinclair had fallen out with key people in Holyrood’s press corps, so his effectiveness was in question.
If this was not political enough, there is even a cabinet level post now dedicated to saving Brown’s legacy, Scottish Labour and the union. Jim Murphy was made a full time secretary of state for Scotland last Friday.
Murphy now has a £7.8m budget and 55 staff at his disposal at the Scotland Office, and not much legislation to worry about. He was very keen on getting the post, and lobbied Brown for the role: he badly wants to be nat-basher-in-chief.
But these manoeuvres are probably the best compliment of all to the SNP; as we reported last week, Alex Salmond bemoaned Labour’s ineptitude and the lack of a Mandelson figure to put up some decent opposition. It seems he got his wish. Big time.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/oct/06/scotland.scotland
Let the nat-bashing commence!!
Sarah Palin on BBC… totally donutted by women!
I know this’ll really upset ‘ol Runnymead but could this be the reason the stock exchange has collapsed?
http://tinyurl.com/3velaa
Well God moves in mysterious ways, his wonders to perform!
31 - She is trashing Barack Obama over his Chicago contacts…
32 - Ruddy hell. And that’s just his face…
33 - I don’t think we gave her enough credit for her debate performance. After Couric we thought she’d be a disaster zone. She did OK.
Dow opened, down 142 points…
Sorry 168, er 189, oops194, 201, 231, 236, 240….
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 52%
Note - Yesterday M-44/O-51.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
36 - Pushing on the door of 10000!
“If you think I’m wrong - fine. But are you 99.77% certain - if not then I have a value bet”
I disagree with this logic. Unless you can bet 400 odd other times at 0.23% value bets.
ECVs: Sporting goes 312-318, Spreadfair 310-315 (for small money).
Mike doesn’t need Sarah Palin to become president for this to be a good bet. He only needs to be able to lay off at better odds later. All he needs is McCain to stand aside (or keel over). And there’s better than 1/4% chance of that happening. But he’s never going to win £10k.
Last night I reversed my position temporarily. If negative campaigning (which favours McCain) trumps economic melt-down (which favours Obama), then the odds on Obama are going to drift and i’ll be able to back him later at a more favourable price. In the meantime, for the next few days, if negative campaigning fails to make an impact, then Obama’s price is only going to tighten slightly. I hope!
Latest Battleground tracker :
McCain 43% .. Obama 50%
Numbers via Pollster.com
28. Have you read “before the storm”? It’s fascinating on the way Goldwater used (and was used) by the nascent political right.
http://www.amazon.com/Before-Storm-Goldwater-Unmaking-Consensus/dp/080902859X
Also, according to his diaries, Goldwater turned down the offer of becoming Veep under Ford.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-dean-and-barry-goldwater-jr/pure-goldwater_b_97027.html
43- I have not read it but, if you recommend it, I will add it to my list. Also, spurred by a recent conversation I had with a very pro-Democratic history teacher, I have an interest in finding a good book about the 1932 Hoover-Roosevelt campaign. Does anybody have a good suggestion?
44. I’ve heard good things about this, but not read it.
http://www.amazon.com/Electing-FDR-Campaign-Presidential-Elections/dp/0700615504
9 Alas, poor Smithson, I knew him well, JackW….
Seriously, if you think there’s a snowball in Hell’s chance of this happening, buy Obama on the spreads. His price will shoot up on any suggestion that La Palin is moving into the GOP driving seat.
That way you make shedloads whether she does or doesn’t. If she actually does, you sit tight and cream the profits. Obama’s EV count would have to be 450 minimum in this (rather improbable) scenario.
How’s the Dow?
47 - DOW-n!
10068 FTSE 4690
Can we call it Black Monday yet?
I think Brown will do
50 - Or call it even Blacker than Black monday, Blackest Monday and the Monday Blacker than that?
If the Dow gets under 10000, a heavily symbolical barrier and one “defended” by many automatic trades, then who knows where it will stop…
53 - Thats the danger… especially as VIX is now at a historic high!
Still testing the 10000…
The BBC continues its Labour bum-licking frenzy:
‘Murphy: ‘Judge me on my record”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/politics_show/7642922.stm
Here we go.
The Footsie does better than other european indexes. Probably because it fell more in recent weeks.
DOW under 10k
Dow about to go below 10,000….
Ooooops - it has.
DOW at 9988
DOW: 9994
Timber !!!!
58-59- Fasten your seatbelts…
Brown Monday ?
Mandy Monday ?
Bust Monday ?
DOW: 9,983.38 Down 499.47 (4.76%) [At 3:06pm]
Wish me luck, buying at 4681.
[60] - Time to put on REM then?
No wait, at 3:08pm it is now just above 10,000…
66 - Not Shiny Happy People obviously?
VIX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
30
Any idea what Murphy and his 55 staff will find to fill in their day?
- this may not be the last ‘meltdown Monday’…
Speaking of NuLabour,Mr Alistair”Whatever it takes”Darling will be on his feet shortly.
66 “Everybody cries….”?
DOW At 3:11PM : 10,003.69 Down 479.16 (4.57%)
Hmmm, whatever happens today, I would guess the US News aint going to be leading with Palins attacks. If the Economy remains the big news story of the campaign, is it wise for the GOP to stick with their line?
Markets crashing….I have to say I’m relieved - can you imagine the mess we’d all be in if Gordon hadn’t wisely set up his new Economic War Cabinet!!!
Interesting idea. More likely is that Palin is creating distance to give her space for a future presidential run.
35 - On her debate performance. She was folksy and spirited and used it as an infomercial for her campaign. She did well at that. As a debate performance, not so much. She didn’t demonstrate any depth of understanding, and on some issues flatly refused to answer. The format allowed her to avoid the getting pinned down as in her interviews. All the polls show Biden won and the trackers are showing further movement to Obama.
Is it me, or is the Bloomburg web-site s-l-o-w…?
Also are they stuck with the 15-minute delay a’la Al-Beeb, as the refresh is not updating the current price. Would not make any long-term investments until sans Christmas. Bye-bye many household-names I fear…!
Unless McCain dies or has something very serious this will definately not happen, and I doubt either if Palin would want it yet.
She would sink faster than McCain is at the moment as she just isn’t up to the task yet; just watch her Couric (sp) interviews. In 8 years time when she’s learnt her stuff and is a true heavy weight we well may see a, wait for it….
Clinton v Palin election as Clinton would surely be on the ticket and the GOP will need something to counter her, and that something may well be another women Palin. She will bied her time.
Dow 9975 and dropping!
37 - Some big state polls out from Rasmussen later too - Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, Florida and Colorado. Essentially (taking NM/IO as read) any one of those is enough for Obama and he might possibly lead in all five.
69 http://tinyurl.com/4slu9t
6 month view of the so-called “Fear Index”
76- http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI gives you the DOW price with a small delay. Their FTSE price however has a 15min delay. Dont know if that aplies to the individual stocks
77. How old will Clinton be in 8 years?!
73. no, its complete madness surely
Oh dear. Where is it going to end I wonder…
Think Darling’s statement might make the FTSE drop still further before the end of play.
Got stopped out, dumb bet, oh well.
9952….
79.
Not quite Rasmussen but Obama seems to be “on a roll”
Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) — Democrat Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee John McCain in battleground states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Minnesota, according to new polls.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads 49 percent to 42 percent among Ohio voters, according to a Columbus Dispatch poll of 2,262 likely voters released yesterday.
The survey, conducted Sept. 24 to Oct. 3, shows a change from a poll by the newspaper before the parties’ nominating conventions, when McCain had a single percentage-point advantage. The state is crucial to the Arizona senator’s campaign, because no Republican has won the presidency without carrying Ohio.
Mike’s’s thinking seriously ‘outside of the envelope’ - in this case right into the recycling shredder! The only part of the GOP ticket that’s ‘flipped’ is Sarah Palin.
82 She’ll be 69
RBS on the ropes - down 21% to all time low.
Can Gordo afford to bail them out too with our money ?
So where is the Dow floor…?
9900, 9800, … , 1929?
As GW Bush said - looks like this suckas goin’ down
Greg Clark to shadow Ed Milliband!
God Mike, are you trying to give me nightmares? Your bet makes some sense - 99.77% certain I am not (though I wish I was) and 10 grand would be some decent compensation for having to endure an Palin Presidency (there, I’ve said it).
Quite what the reaction in the rest of the world would be if Palin beat Obama, I don’t know. My guess is he would most likely win more easily, but I can’t feel sure of it.
Interesting abot Palin’S ruthlessness and possibly getting rid of McCain. I wonder if a male politician could get away with that? Palin’s act is so rooted in small town decency she might brush it off. She may have her limits, but as a performer she is first rate.
84.
Statement imminent, go on badger give it some sh1t* your country needs you !
87 - That is a mail-in poll with dubious accuracy. What is pleasing for Obama is that he has now been fairly stable for the last couple of weeks with his lead. If he maintains/increases it for another week I don’t see a way back for McCain barring a national security crisis.
Guido is reporting that Clegg has spilt the beans on mendacious Mandy…?
Odd’s on an medical accident in a London NHS hospital tonight or tomorrow…?
Lord Lamont looking very old…
Good job thay passed the bailout last week - else it’d be Armageddon on the markets
98. Well it is no time for a novice
95.
“Our economy is strong, stable and resiliant, and we will take decisive action to ensure that Britain is well placed to weather the global economic turbulence that started in the US sub-prime market”
You can arrange these words in any order
Oh, not forgetting to mention that this bust, the worst we have faced since the 1930’s, is nowhere near as bad as the 90’s under the Tories
A financial crisis AND Sarah Palin in the White House. What are you trying to do to us Mike?
77 - Clinton will be 69 by the time of the 2016 election. Younger than McCain but the odds are against her being on the ticket with young Turks like Mark Warner coming up on the rails. Realistically, her best chance of being President is an Obama defeat and another run in 2008. Although she could be an elder statesman VP pick in 2016.
98 I thought so too. I guess he must be old. Underlines how long ago 1992 actually was.
Dow tanking now, down over 400 now…
104 - Only 66… a spring chicken compared to our very own Jack W!
103 - The problem for Clinton is that a lot can happen in the next 8 years. Nobody had heard of Obama in 2000. A lot will depend on the success of the Obama Presidency.
Sterling already below $1.74….
106 JackW, it would be useful to hear how this feels compared to 1929 (and 1906 for that matter)
106 And her ARSE is almost as lovely…
The Badger: “Whatever is necessary”
“whatever is necessary” - wins the Darling cliche race!
The markets of euro countries are in total meltdown: more than 7% fall for both CAC and DAX
Good to see Darling proved right that banning shorts would turn the market - genius.
Dow below 9900…
Gordon really shouldn’t sit there allowing a grin to spread over his face
Really not seemly
IMO, the pressure of a woman president by 2016 would be huge, I suspect Palin will run in 2012 and maybe even win. As for Clinton, she will be unable to run until 2016 if Obama wins. She could challenge Obama in 2012, but it’s unlikely - But you never know!
Gordon Brown been a diaster the Credit Crunch; it is no apparent he is just rotating through policies in a hope for a miracle!
Everyone can see his much vaunted short-selling ban for 120 days has made no impact on the Stock Market’s gyrations (failed policy).
After turning up his nose at selling Northern Rock to LLyods TSB he’s sold the much larger HBOS to them (failed policy).
The nationalisation of banks like Northern Rock has now been abandoned for selling banks to other financial institutions (failed policy).
The Bank of England giving credit to financial institutions has not stopped the banks going bust(failed policy).
The selling of banks to other banks is apparently going to be abandoned (according to the newspapers) for buying shares in banks (failed policy).
Gordon Brown’s seems to be trying to get in the Guiness Book of Records for the most failed attempts to solve a financial problem!
Alledgedly, the voter’s like a to have a man whose a loser in a crisis.
I need to move to another country?
Did Nick lose his job in the end?
Nice of the BBC to show a FTSE tracker with the Chancellors statemetn!
120 FTSE heading south fast as his speech progresses….
…every country in the world - Europe included….
Has Darling let the cat-out-of-the-bag…?
121 - Nearly 400 points of now…
Darling will do ‘everything possible’ to ensure stability. So far it would appear that Government’s interpretation of ‘everything possible’ is platitudes. Where’s the action? We just get these same noble soundbites everyday.
We’re doomed - doomed !
If the DOW goes below 9800 will the trading floor spontaneous break into ‘Always look on the bright side of life’?
If I try to view the statement on the BBC website it just brings up a picture of Darling and a message saying “this content doesn’t seem to be working”
Says it all really!
124 - ‘noble’?
are you sure?
Meaningless would seem more appropriate.
That statement contained no content or policy
What is the point of this bunch?
122- “Because of the financial turbulence, the 27 EU members have agreed that stability can only happen if we stick together. Therefore we have decided to join together in a new country called the Federalist Dominion of the European Socialist Countries. Now let us sing the Red Flag twenty times.”
FTSE down 8%…
Another crazy William Hill price.
Democrats to win Colorado 1.66. Just helped myself to £500
If you want to hedge its 4.5 for the Republicans on PaddyPower. At a complete hedge thats about 24% profit in a month, better than putting it in the FTSE anyway!
Note maximum on PaddyPower is £59.39
Dow down over 500 points…
Someone must be making money out of this credit crunch. Who benefits from all this?
looks like the bailout worked then……..
we’re all going to the wall, aren’t we?
Dow approaching the 9750 benchmark….
Dow under 9800… now near 9750… near 550 points fall in a bit more than an hour.
Iceland gives unlimited deposit guarantee…
135 Sheeesh - that’s off 250 in half an hour - were they listening to the Badger?
Deja vu….
Crisis, world on the edge…
PM: “After a meeting with the German Chancellor, I have received assurances that….”
128. Pseudo-noble. They are just playing at crisis management. Saving their own arses basically.
Buying again 4590
133. George Soros presumably…
Will somebody please slap that grin off Brown’s face?
133. David Cameron’s backers - mostly spivs and swines.
Dam capitalists !
143 - The electorate will in 18 months!
145 He only seems to have the one petty point-scoring mode.
F**king Hell. I lived though 87 & the ERM. This is the daddy. I’m scared.
The “Fear Index” is up 17.5% on the day = Total bodily evacuation…
Ghost of Harry Flashman - where do you think the FTSE will be by Christmas…?
148 - We are heading for complete market capitulation…
BBC website leader is now:
“Chancellor Alistair Darling says the government will do whatever necessary to maintain stability of the financial system.”
Sounds like a novel idea. I’ve got a feeling I’ve heard that somewhere before though.
151 - How can you maintain something that doesn’t exist?
Only just realised, that both Alistair Darling and Norman Lamont went to the same school.
149. It will have gone lower then be around 5000 - then stagnate for 6 months.
141 I wish you luck EDW.
Beware picking bottoms at the moment though and look at the chart going back to 1999 extremely carefully before picking medium term levels.
Standing in front of a train and all that…….
155
am deep in the green now, baby!!!!!!!!!!!
Nearly 8% off!
I already have £40 on this at 490/1. Considering the lower prices you can get for H. Clinton and Al Gore it seems very attractive.
Sold, flat for the day, too hairy for me. Gonna buy some real stocks for the long term. No more futures today, even with guaranteed stops.
Dow rallying a bit. Only 450 points down…
Did Darling say anything relevant within that statement…?
Or was this just another example of the experience Gordoom’s team brings…?
Iceland guarantees all domestic savings….
What about the UK deposits, or are they covered by the BoE’s scheme?
161
No, waffle.
I’m buying everything including options.
142,144. Seriously apart from George Soros/Lord Ashscroft someome must be benefiting from all this.
161.
I will do whatever is necessary…..I will do whatever is necessary…..I will do whatever is necessary…….” would someone get this man off auto-repeat.
Anyone would “do whatever is necessary….”
What would be clever is if he could correctly diagnose what IS necessary and get on and DO it.
164. Philip Morris, Diageo, Punch Taverns, Rope suppliers etc..
163. 50bp cut this week now odds on, on Betfair - very thin market though.
165 Quite so. But sadly, nobody knows what to do to turn this around. “Do whatever is necessary” is the political equivalent of whistling in the dark.
Does noone care about betting on this site anymore?? How about some appreciation for my tip?! :p
“do what is necessary” = reactive not proactive - pathetic.
164,166 Insolvency practitioners, undertakers, pharmacists.
are they getting on with the job of doing whatever is necessary?
Here is an article discussing the concept of “reverse coattails,” which, in this case, would be Mark Warner’s Senate candidacy benefiting Obama at the top of the ticket in Virginia. But, more interestingly, the article discusses the rarely mentioned but real phenomenon of split ticket voters actually driving other races in the opposite direction. Since Virginia is a swing state, many voters there who will vote Warner will then be inclined to split their ticket in other races. As the article explains, McCain may actually gain votes in Virginia on the strength of the expected overwhelming Warner victory. Alternatively or additionally, Republican House candidates may benefit.
http://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-local_warnerfactor_1006oct06,0,3519582.story
169 Sorry, Noisy.
It’s a good tip and I had £200. Wouldn’t go heavier because Colorado is a bit unpredictable and the most recent poll gave it a tie. Intrade however makes it three to one on, so almost certainly good value.
Thanks and hat-tip.
167. If they did that it would probably push the pound down into the $1.60s.
I wish Spitting Image was still on TV
Can you imaging what they’d make of “Whateva” It Takes Brown and Darling
175 - YEs but to keep rates where they are will bear down too much on demand!
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 41% .. Obama 47%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100608.htm
176. They would be having a field day with all 3 parties. such a pity it’s not still on
175. Yes - who cares?
are the indexes being shorted?
All bias aside, how would everyone rate Brown and Darling’s handling of the economy since the crisis?
Putting aside your loathing for Brown, or the opinion that he got us into the mess in the first place, how do you all honestly think he’s done?
I think they’ve actually done really well.
New GQR/Democracy Corp national poll :
McCain 45% .. Obama 48% .. Barr 2% .. Nader 3%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/dcor100508fq13_pb.pdf
182. Whelan ?
OT
My charts suggest a bottom around October 16 to 22nd..
Big rally tomorrow,
And as FTSE is going down parabolically , the bottom could be around 4200, 4400 or even 3300..
Note: a bottom. Maybe not THE bottom…
181 - You cannot really short an index, you can buy futures but the index is merely an indicator of a complex basket of securities. The securities will all be traded independently and the index will be calculated according to a formula.
180. People whose wealth is denominated in Sterling. i.e. Most Brits.
Any irony regarding the headline and the picture ?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7654878.stm
It is extra-ordinary really; Militant tendancy have won…we’re nationalizing the banks without compensation. Looks like RBS will be next (and they own Coutts!!)
182 - *adjusts monitor*
What is it that you think that they’ve done ?
Dow now stabilizing around -400 points, but still 4h30 to go
182
It’s a mess They have NO coherent plan . it’s all fire fighting. They need to have a plan to sort it out for the future, not bandaid every failing bank.
Basically as the FTSE and Dow fall, the Banks’ losses on derivatives gorw and they neeed to hoard more cash.
The banking system is close to seizing up: no credit cards, no cash transfers, no standing orders nothing. Seriously we are close to a total melt down.
Where is the plan? The US have one. It may not work but it is a plan…
I have a home cash balance enough to last 3 weeks and enough food for ditto. That is how bad it could be.
183. Jack W: That’s surprisingly good for McCain.
182. Very poorly. They have forgotten the adsage a stitch in time saves nine.
191 - Yes but we saw that the other day when it ended 777 points down…
Dow having a rally - trying to get back through 10,000.
How come the PM’s reshuffle details - the ministers of state and PPS etc have not been put on the net yet?
Think Cameron’s reshuffle is a damp squib - sounds to me as though has adjusted things at the margin and wants to provide a shadow cabinet offering stability - I doubt Clegg will shuffle anything!
182. But they haven’t done ANYTHING!
180. Anyone who buys things denominated in dollars - like oil and other commodities. A drop of that scale (which I don’t think will happen - rates are on the way down in the US as well), would seriously mitigate the recent drop in the oil price.
193. I think they’ve over sampled old people in that poll
Always an optimist, I believe - hope would probably be a more accurate word
that both the Dow and McCain has now reached their low point.
197 “I doubt Clegg will shuffle anything!”
His feet, in a slightly embarrassed manner…
199
It won’t matter when oil hits $60
187. Why?
196
Look at the IG page the quotes are live.
203- I doubt it will go down as much. The OPEC hawks are already fuming about the recent fall.
199. We are well beyond those kind of concerns now, David. In any case, the US is going to slash rates as well soon enough.
From Conservatives.com:
‘In other changes, Greg Barker has become the Shadow Minister for Climate Change, Charles Hendry the Shadow Minister for Energy, and Nick Hurd the Shadow Minister for Charities.’
201- Jan, for months I’ve been predicting an Obama victory of about six points in the two-party vote and we seem to be well on course for that result. Of course, events may drive the result off of that course in the next four weeks, but I haven’t seen any need to modify my prediction up to this point in the campaign.
209- The town hall debate tomorrow could help to reduce the margin.
192 madasafish. i would urge everyone to also have 3 weeks food and more than usual amount of ready cash on hand too, its what i have done.
203 The Russian economy now requires $75 oil simply to function. It ain’t going below that (hint: for an investment of a few million bucks and some high explosive, you can have some naughty boys go and add some $20 a barrel for “political uncertainty” - worth tens of billions….just don’t get caught!)
151.“Chancellor Alistair Darling says the government will do whatever necessary to maintain stability of the financial system.”
Missed Darlings speech, can anyone tell me if he managed to add anything of any practical use to that sound bite today in the HoC’s?
164.Evidence?
211 And a couple of strips of gold sovereigns in your belt may be wise, if you want to get a place on the last boat out….
181…yes the indices are being shorted.
173 - My take is that this is wishful thinking. Ticket splitting will happen (inevitably as the Presidential race will be tight and Warner will win in a landslide) but Warner is unlikely to boost turnout. McCain voters are unlikely to be motivated to vote for him or against him.
Reverse coat-tails are very rare because they operate where a candidate changes the universe of voters. This is most often done by the top of the ticket. An classic example is Mississippi. Here Obama should give a big boost to AA turnout. They can be expected to vote for the Democratic candidate for Senate (Musgrove). If he wins it will probably be on Obama’s coat-tails. Will Warner really bring new voters out?
212. Well the next few months will be an interesting test of the extent to which the oil producers can set a floor for oil prices.
Russia worst day ever, try turning the gas off now Vlad.
211 - Oh great, suggesting everyone hoards cash and food is REALLY going to help.
Frank Dobson just gave a mental interview on News 24. How did he become Health Secretary!
210. Yes, Obama is not so hot on that but I cannot really fault the way Obama has fielded questions with only one hesitant and paused ridden replay around the credit crunch in the last week.
I now favour an Obama victory personally as the Republicans have nothing positive to say in the presidential campiagn and I think the Dems. could probably do a better job on the economy. The economic crisis, ironically pulls the rug on the military/ national security side of things - for now at least.
All the value on Colorado has now gone from will hills. Good tip btw Noisy. I got in at 5/6 the other day so am very happy to have just hedged at a profit.
(I like to play it safe)
Russian Micex closes down nearly 19%
Hmmm. Thinking about it some more, I reckon that Mike’s scenario just needs some guns and a weird religious sect to make an excellently scary work of fiction……Oops, now I’m really scared.
223. That’s cheered me up. Schadenfreud and all that.
Iceland for sale, the country that is.
Martin all the ministers of state etc are on the Guardians web page somewhere - Not the all important PPS’s yet. Had you heard our Nick is preparing a leadership bid now that he has been sacked!
226. Britain to purchase, as part of a debt-equity swap? Get Ireland back on board too and we will have a new sterling area…
227. He hasn’t been sacked has he?
228 - THat would be good news for fisherman!
229
so it wasnt you then Martin!
209-SS-you have lost me-i thought you were a McCain fan.
230. The best news would be that the UK would presumably exit the CFP at the same time…
231. Am i missing something here?
214 Try to buy a gun also, to protect yourself against marauding cannibals who can’t buy food.
City spokesman on BBC News said that Darling had “said nothing” and that was why the markets carried on falling.
Dithering?
228 - I dont think Britain can afford Ireland any more. We may just consider a reverse takeover though
234
Yes Mike Smithson said the other night that some people had had e mails about their style of posts and one had been banned completely… You had been AWOL for a while.. I wondered…
197: Ministerial list went up yesterday, see
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/page/2007/dec/10/1
PPSs not all chosen yet. In reply to whoever it was that asked upthread, yes, I lost my job - automatic side-effect of Malcolm wicks being reshuffled out. Unlike Ministers, who are chosen by Number 10 in consultation with the whips and Secretaries of State, PPSs are pretty much the choice of the individual minister, and they appear and disappear with the minister who picked them.
232- David, I am a McCain “fan” in the sense that I would much rather see him leading the nation than Obama. In fact, I have already voted by absentee ballot and you can guess for whom I voted. But that doesn’t mean that I don’t see the writing on the wall. There are simply too many obstacles for McCain to overcome to win this election. Most American voters will not agree with me and therefore my preferred candidate will lose. I’m sure we’ve all had this experience in many of the elections in which we’ve voted. On the bright side, though, I expect the GOP to do quite well in 2010. I know that is cold comfort now, but there’s not much I can do about the situation!
You crazy Maverick!
Geoffry Robinson [ex Paymaster General] just asked the stupidest question about finance to Darling - clearly understands nothing about interest rates or the role of the Bank Of England/MPC
I can see how Mandelson spotted that sucker to “loan” him £350k
Good Afternoon/Evening.
So much for the Bail-out, the Merkal-out and the Darling-out. It’s all hands to the pumps, but the pumps aren’t working. Glad I shifted my limited cash over a week ago.
Iceland deserves to sink, they went out and purchased half the UK high street on tick, including Hamleys, cheeky Viking gits. Where’s your longboat now Sven?
239. Sorry to hear that Nick.
Jeff Randall on SkyNews, …there is a real fear that the Euro could simply fall apart!
He-he!
246 - That wouldn’t be good at all!
208. Wow, a rural/retirement Sussex takeover!
246 The Europpeans could all move into the European Sterling area! After all our currency is rock solid
240 For the avoidance of doubt, S&S, I’m a McCain fan too, although I would show a small preference for Obama in a straight choice between the two.
I am sure McCain was the right choice for the GOP and nothing is likely to change that opinion. If you consider everything that he’s had going against him, he’s done an amazing job to keep it this close.
239
Hard luck
Looks like open season on bloggers ..
211
I believe the banking system almost failed last week.
DOW now dropping faster nearing -500.
If we’d only followed a more sober (conservative) path over the last 10 years and had low debt (public and private) we could be in a once in a century position to be a safe haven amongst the sh*t storm.
However Gordo threw it all away for good tractor stats and a chance to be the worst PM ever.
Labour must pay at the next 3 GE’s.
240-understand you analysis-you had me worried there for a moment.
252
Dow could fall to 9550 tonight (-800 day) and rally tomorrow.
239. Sorry to hear that, I was surprised Malcolm Wicks got given the push and the knock on effects to you as well. I would have thought the PM would have wanted stability at the energy portfolio at this time.
Still the Mandelson appointment is interesting though the reasoning seems a little strange.
Perhaps Nick P should have gone for a Jalfrezi ?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/rosa_prince/blog/2008/10/06/curry_house_coup_completed_by_gordon_browns_reshuffle
Another little morsel-ette from the reshuffle is the fate of the 2006 Curry House plotters.
Of the 15 members of the 2001 intake who signed the letter calling for Tony Blair to pack his Hawiian trunks and head out of Downing Street, 11 have now been rewarded with nice little earners (well, nice posh titles at the very least).
214 - I’m planning on selling my body for sexual favours to get that place on the last boat out. My biggest problem will be knowing where to store all those 50ps.
247. Why not?
Did Darling have anything new to add to the sound bites of the last couple of weeks in the HoC’s, and if not, why did he even bother turning up to address the house?
There was an EU summit this weekend to discuss the situation, and a shiny new economic committee for Gordon to chair, surely they could come up with enough hot air to produce something?
253. you mean with lots of nice deregulation and business/entrepreneur friendly policies?
250- Your bird’s eye assessment is the same as mine. McCain was the right guy to get the GOP through this election with as little harm as possible. By choosing a moderate like McCain, along with a dynamic female VP candidate, the party has positioned itself as well as possible for a comeback in the next few years. They have done much to “detoxify” the GOP brand by making Bush already seem as if he is in the distant past and placing other, more favorable images in voters’ minds as the new “face” of the GOP. It will be up to the remaining House and Senate GOP members next year, however, as well as GOP governors, to steer the party to future victories from that platform.
260
I dont think they have any idea what to do.
257.God bless Polly Toynbee for pointing out the obvious and leaving some of the political lobby to play catch up with that special thank you bestowed on the Curry House plotters which Brown so desperately tried to distance himself from at the time.
Sky calling it Melt Down Monday.
263 i agree. i dont think they have any idea either. the markets created a monster that is doomed to collapse whatever they do . all they can do is delay the inevitable and plan for it, then pick up the pieces afterwards and rebuild the economy. next few weeks and months aint going to be pretty.
259 - Well if the Euro falls apart it will cause shockwaves. A currency failure would be a nightmare in the current climate. Even though I am eurosceptic and would sooner hack off my limbs than join the Euro, I am enough of a realist to work out that a currency crisis would be an utter disaster.
258 Bring plenty of change.
Well done Noisy for that great spot on Colorado - sadly now long gone. Please don’t be discouraged by the initial lack of response. Spotting this type of opportunity is exactly what PB is all about.
I keep thinking all the value has disappeared from the US elections and then you or someone else comes up with a real cracker!
research shows that banking crises are in the majority of cases accompanied by currency crises. so don’t be too surprised.
they could all go back to using their own currencies in europe - its been done before and prices are still quoted in both currencies at the till in shops.
MTF, I finally got to see the Gordon Brown bottle interview on the Andrew Marr programme thanks to Mike putting up on the previous thread. We already had the problems of NR, and warnings of more economic woes, and a year later if they don’t even have some kind of plan ready to implement then this government should resign now.
Sion Simon - Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yn4IpyVViw4
232, 240, 250 It is of course essential to avoid mixing up what you want to happen from a political point of view with your betting positions. I’ve made money on the survival of Osama bin Laden
A certain bias is difficult to avoid, though. Sometimes that stubborness can pay off, especially when it has some rational basis, as when I held on to McCain for the nomination during his difficult 2007 summer and autumn.
Perhaps that’s why I still cling to my hope for McCain, although I sold during the Palin bounce and are green on Obama too. I now believe Obama will win, but I don’t think the margin will be as big (6 points) as SaS, and havn’t given up completely yet.
I’m currently waiting for good value bets on McCain in key states such as Florida, Virginia and Ohio, as I actually don’t think he will lose them all.
Sorry to read about Nick P and the pps role. Amazed that Brown moves experience out of Energy dept at a time of possible power cuts in November.
Regarding Darling can we create a petition for Darling NOT to do anymore statements of reassurance?
FTSE at 4589 is just 100 above the point where nuLabour took power in 1997. Biggest one day fall since 1987.
269 - When has a complete currency failure occurred?
Nick Palmer, commiserations on your indirect removal by Gordon. Gives you more time to give your insight to the PB.com bloggers.
272. Yes but he likes curry - so have a job…
266 Will Hutton reckons this is the ideal moment for Britain to join the Euro.
I had a big shock when I saw the BBC said RBS shares had fallen by 57% on the day, but it was, fortunately, a mistake.
270
Gordo will NEVER resign, not in a million years. He will if at all be removed in a coup, and then Labour will hang on till 2010. Labour MP’s have their noses in the trough, if they know they are in for a hiding, they won’t vote for an early bath. We are stuck with them whatever happens… not a happy prospect.
273 Things can only get better (apparently !)
Don’t you just love Mandy and Kinnock singing so ….
277 - Yes, the Beeb does those heart-attack moments all too frequently!
266. Actually I disagree - European countries badly need to get control of their own monetary affairs now. Collapsing the euro is the best thing that could happen for Spain, Ireland and Italy. The alternative looks like extremely deep and protracted recessions.
several single european currencies have been tried and failed in the past, i understand. ok not ones in the modern era, but still. the “unthinkable” has often happened throughout history - that’s life. dont assume someone will “sort it”. After all that’s how random and unpredictable life can be.
274 Zimbabwe 2008 Germany 1930’s
282 - In the modern world it would hammer confidence!
281/2 I can’t wait to say ‘I told you so’ !
Next target. The EU itself.
Better of Out here we come.
On 2 May 1997, FTSE closed at 4455.60
6 October 2008, FTSE closed at 4589.19.
That’s a rise of 133.59 points, or 3 per cent, in 11 years, 5 months.
Is this what Brown means by a “stable” economy?
284. How could it be worse, exactly?
281 - Reserve issues would come into play, it would cause a lot of issues!
286 A prudent end to boom and bust apparently.
272 Interesting, Jan, and as always I respect your view but personally I don’t think McCain will win any of those three. I’d have a small wager with if could agree odds, and find a stable currency to settle in!
287 - A failure of the Euro would cause massive massive cofidence issues.
182 I don’t want to be bad mannered Charlie but they have completely f****d up the economy. The City & investors don’t have confidence they have any idea what to do, they hold a pretend summit in Paris wasting everybody’s time, splutter platitudes and then waste more time on some re-named Cabinet committee talking about how awful it is.
They have no plan, no ideas.
Gordon is consumed by keeping his office - his waste of time re-shuffle proves that.
The alternatives cannot be worse than staying with what we have got. Osborne & Cable should get a table in some nice restaurant tonight and thrash out between them a plan - both have spoken well and have the basis of something real and effective. Cameron & Clegg should declare a truce for the present and the combined Conservative, Liberal Democrat parties in Parliament demand action on basis of that plan. The Government is at a loss.
there is no stability, no confidence. risk needs to be spread and ring fenced at the moment, not combined into ever larger institutions. its getting more dangerous each day.
281 - What is the process by which a country could pull out of the Euro? Once they’ve printed and minted billions in the replacement currency, what happens next?
288. Of course it would, but so what? You could say the same thing about Argentina’s collapse of the currency board in 2002, or the collapse of Bretton Woods in the early 1970s. Or the 1930s exits from gold, and so on and so on.
But there comes a point where domestic needs trump contractural or reputational niceties. And that’s where we now are.
Well, looking at the stock markets, we’re going to need some spectacular political bets to make up the losses. Actually, a couple of weeks I thought along the same lines as Mike, and took out tiny bets on very long odds on Palin, Huckabee, Romney and Hillary, on the basis that it is not inconceivable that something might happen between then and the election to prevent Obama, and more especially McCain, from standing. (Odds between 490-1 and 1000-1). My view was: at 1000-1, a bet is value if it might happen more frequently than once every 4000 years, given the 4-year US presidential term.
Not worth risking more than a few quid, though!
295 - I really think that now is not the time to add a major currency system collapse into the mix if it can be avoided. Obviously there are huge issues across Europe!
[273] - It might signify a change of policy to change the minister responsible for electricity generation. Strange, though, I thought that with the privatised utilities any scope for a failure in supplies was nil, due to the wondrous efficiencies of the market…
In what sense do you suppose there is a particular possibility of power cuts in November? Scaremongering is somewhat odious.
[68,72] - I was thinking of.. “It’s the end of the world as we know it (And I feel fine)” - http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=cGqroT1FZ5Y
O/T Just a word to cheer the decision of the Nobel jury to co-award the Nobel Prize for Medicine to 3 outstanding european scientists:
- Hausen, who discovered the HPV and its impact on uterus cancer
- Montagnier and Barre-Sinoussi discoverers of HIV
One might say that these three have done more for the world than the whole list of Nobel Prize for economics…
297. You’re just repeating yourself James, waffling even.
Thanks for the friendly notes upthread, much appreciated.
The statement and following discussion today were pretty much holding operations all round - everyone basically saying it’s a serious situation, and drastic action may be needed, but none of the front benches willing to claim they had a definitive formula. I think it would have been odd not to have a statement and just gone chuntering into everyday business, but I suspect it’s correct not to rush into anything: just at the moment, no individual country’s actions are going to have a decisive impact.
I see Iceland is considering applying to join the Euro, on the basis that their current experience shows that national currencies are too vulnerable: even the traditional anti-groups like the fishermen are changing their view. I wouldn’t think that instant acceptance is likely, though - rather like Georgia and NATO, a wise response seems to be to refer it to a committee for lengthy study.
300. There are worse things that can happen to an economy than recession. Sometimes it’s the only way to sort out the problems left by a period of malinvestment during a boom.
271 Sion Simon has been made Skills Minister!
How low does your intellect have to go to be a Minister in this Govt?
And Nick Palmer not in the Squad!
I have had my disagreements with Nick. But, he’s a good deal brighter than Sion Simon.
Robert Peston’s blog outlining Darlings “surprisingly big” plan to be announced tomorrow morning at 8.00am just before the FTSE opens
It’s a bit confusing, but its got a catchy title: “The Whatever is Necessary Act, 2008″
301 - But surely if Malcolm Wicks is going to be a Special Representative, you could at least be appointed his Viceroy. I’m very happy to start a campaign to that effect.
301. have to say it is sad and although i don’t agree with everything your government does I would much rather have you in Government than Sion Simon. hope you enjoy your new found freedom.
Nick Palmer - disappointing news. But it’s no surprise to see Brown purging his government of anyone who comes across as half competent. I hope it had nothing to do with Mr Palmer associating himself with a shadowy online grouping not known for their sympathy towards the Dear Leader?
FTSE - BIGGEST EVER ONE-DAY FALL
Anything to say, Gabble?
303
Yes, Sion Simon, disgrace, thick thug, is now running the country.
308 - Only in points terms!
303 The problem is Sion Simon is one of the few Labour MPs who will definitely retain his seat in 2010. Unfortunately for the country, the more safe the Labour seat, the lower the IQ of the MP. Hence Nick Palmer will lose his, Broon retains his.
Sion Simon has been made Skills Minister!
Hope that does not include modern communication techniques!!!
Seriously though, this recent government reshuffle seems to have had a destractive quality in the return of Mandelson whilst the Blairites and sensible seasoned hands seem to have been abandoned.
My point is how can a PM keep someone like the gaff prone Phil Woolas or apoint a joke Sion Simon to the ministerial payroll and drop the like of wicks with the obvious fallout. Interestingly partly from a betting point of view and partly from a political point of view. How many ministers like Sion Simon with large enough majorities to survive a defeat baring a mega-lanfdslide got promotion or ministerial experience? Maybe the Labour party is playing a very long game indeed now? By that i mean one that takes into consideration a defeat. Woolas is young enough to find a new seat - Wicks I don’t think has this potential.
301. There are standards to be met before you are elgible to join the Euro, and these include not having too much public debt.
Iceland is not likely to pass. Nor, for that matter, I’m told, are we.
304 Aaargh “”All the leaders of the European Union make clear that each of them will take whatever measures are necessary to maintain the stability of the financial system - whether through liquidity support through central banks, action to deal with individual banks or enhanced depositor protection schemes.
“While no depositors in our countries’ banks have lost any money, we will continue to take the necessary measures to protect both the system and individual depositors. In taking these measures, European leaders acknowledge the need for close coordination and cooperation.”
Why did they let Gordon write the communiqué?
269″research shows that banking crises are in the majority of cases accompanied by currency crises. so don’t be too surprised.
they could all go back to using their own currencies in europe - its been done before and prices are still quoted in both currencies at the till in shops.”
Just heard Jeff Randell on Sky commenting on possible problems for the Euro.
New SUSA poll for Virginia :
McCain 43% .. Obama 53%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=00f2d8fb-6a3b-425d-9f27-21df796e8fe5
306. I echo those sentiments towards Nick P and please keep on posting here.Interesting times politically and financially at the moment and you never know what is around the corner.
Enjoy your freedom!
297
IF the Euro did collpase and we went back to separarte currencies, we could effectively have competitive devaluations.
Italu - whose productivity is appalling - desperately needs one.
BUT - and it’s a big BUT - only an idiot # would lend money in lira - becuase they KNOW they would never be repaid or it would be in a currency devalued by 100%..
# i.e. any normal bank based on prior behaviour:-(
It seems great minds think alike in the ministerial appointments / majority size stakes! This could well be a further longterm mistake by Brown as the shunned have more reason to rebel - Malcolm Wicks has a majority of 13K! Any local issues could make the difference.
Italu Italy
FTSE now down over a third from its all-time high (closed at 6930.2 30 Dec 1999).
New Suffolk poll for Virginia :
McCain 39% .. Obama 51%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Suffolk_Final_Virginia_100608.htm
313
Yes , I dont think Gordo’s 5 tests are in any way relevant any more (not that I have any idea what they were)!!!
[301] - Re: Icelandic membership of the Euro. I would have thought that you either admit them straight away, or you say no.
If you make them wait then either their economy completely tanks, or they manage to find a way through on their own. If the latter, why would they then want to join later? If the former, that’s surely cruel to needlessly inflict that on them, if Euro membership would help their economy. [Presumably the assumption is that membership would be a good thing, otherwise the Euro would not have been devised in the first place..]
Referring it to a committee is the most idiotic thing they could do.
307- It’s true. In fact, Dr. Palmer has even been known to engage in civil conversations on PB with at least one known and identified Republican, the party of which George W. Bush is a member! That sort of scandalous conduct simply cannot go down well with the Labour Party faithful.
New SUSA poll for New Hampshire :
McCain 40% .. Obama 53%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a8255cdc-82a4-4a10-8cf2-063b666e514c&c=24
301, 303 Agreed.
Commiserations to Nick and Malcolm Wicks.
I’ve always been disappointed with the misplaced loyalty Nick has shown to Gordon Brown, but I take no pleasure in his lack of reward for that loyalty in the reshuffle.
In constituency newsletters Nick has often used his status as PPS as explanation or justification for supporting controversial and unpopular measures, so I look forward to seeing greater independence from him.
298.”In what sense do you suppose there is a particular possibility of power cuts in November? Scaremongering is somewhat odious.”
That is not scarmongering, we have been lucky in the last 2/3 years because of the weather, but don’t be under any illusions that they were not real concerns in government about power cuts if demand was too great over the winter period.
304 - the link is wrong!
Gold was 1030 recently its now only 864, the world is not coming to an end, not for now, anyway.
Latest Muhlenberg College/Morning Call tracker for Pennsylvania :
McCain 38% .. Obama 49%
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/PA_TRACKING_Release_10_06.pdf
310. James Burdett: Only in points terms!
Second-greatest fall in percentage terms (only 1987’s Black Monday being worse).
332 - Yeah not a good day at all.
283 The german currency actually collapsed in 1923 following the French invasion.
New Research 2000/DKos poll for Georgia :
McCain 50% .. Obama 43%
Note - Underpoll of AA by 3 points.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/6/1152/98507
The lack of a single EU voice is disgraceful. We are in very dangerous territory right now and neither here in the US or Brussels is there any sign that they have a clue what to do about it.
327. Yes, Indeed - hopefully he will use it too full effect! You never know he might ironically enjoy it more!
He can diktat terms rather than the other way round! He could also engage in ‘low sculderugry’ against those Labour MP’s who got undeserved preferement! 
I Know i Would!
Vince Cable is saying we need a radical cut in interest rates. Would it really make any difference when LIBOR is well above the B of E rate anyway???
According to a BBC report, about 25%, TWENTY FIVE PERCENT of all mammals will disappear from planet Earth within a decade.
The main problem being to many Humans overcrowding other species to death. Soon it will not be only other mammals, but human as well that will go to the wall.
Lack of drinking water and land being only two of the problems humanity faces.
So, not content with a crumbling Market and economy we will soon be having what can only be described as commodity wars to plague us.
DOW now be below 500, -536.
338 - It would pull the LIBOR down a touch, but there are wider economic reasons for bringing down bank rate.
“The main problem being to many Humans overcrowding other species to death. Soon it will not be only other mammals, but human as well that will go to the wall.”
Hmm, I’m always open to ideas for preventing a Tory government, but perhaps that’s a bit drastic?
341
LOL Nick, I am sorry you lost your job, but that’s politics.. More time to spend with the voters of Broxtowe though
FTSE closed Mon 8 Oct 2007 6540.9
Down 29.8% in a year. Ouch.
340 Why would it pull LIBOR down - the price doesn’t appear to be the issue. counterparties do.
340 All through the Great Depression the GB bank rate was sub 2% for most of the period - 1931-1939. T’s not the Rate that matters but the supply of money.
Lowering the Bank Rate now will not help savers or banks just now, nor industry. What everyone need is free flow of credit.
338
Yes of course a base rate cut would make a difference. And many people will feel it’s long overdue.
Anyone with a tracker rate mortgage would feel an immediate benefit in their much pressured pockets.
Those with variable rate non-tracker mortgages would not necessarily benefit as I suspect many mortgage lenders would not pass on the full rate cut. They would still be under pressure from LIBOR rates, and would more likely use it to help rebuild balance sheets.
The much vaunted BoE independence has been stuck with a ‘fighting inflation’ remit when recession or worse has already been the greater risk for some time.
344 - Usually a base rate move has a slight impact on Libor.
Dow’s rally was short-lived, it’s now again under 9800
341. It could well be a policy thought up by one of our more extreme policy groups! just a kite flying exercise I’m sure
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 50%
Note - Yesterday M-43/O-50
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
Dick Fuld, the former CEO of Lehman’s is being quizzed in Congress on his remuneration package. Trying to get some sympathy that he lost his hundred of millions in stock. Not getting too much though as in the past eight years he extracted nearly half a billion dollars in salary and cash bonuses!! (On Bloomberg TV now)
341. Nick, your quips won’t prevent the people of the UK to throwing your lot out.
Just as a matter of interest, who is alll this mountain of world debt owed to, Is it the Oil rich countries and the Chinese?
343 “FTSE closed Mon 8 Oct 2007 6540.9
Down 29.8% in a year.”
Gordon getting on with the job - of destroying your pension.
DOW -566.
A trip down memory lane
Extract of letter to Tony Blair
Sadly, it is clear to us - as it is to almost the entire party and the entire country - that without an urgent change in the leadership of the party it becomes less likely that we will win that election.
That is the brutal truth. It gives us no pleasure to say it. But it has to be said. And understood.
This is not a plot against you by people who want to reverse or slow down the progress you have led. We are all as determined as you are that nothing should stand in its way.
But we believe that it is impossible for the party and the government to renew itself without renewing its leadership as a matter of urgency.
As utter Labour loyalists and implacable modernisers, we therefore have to ask you to stand aside.
Yours sincerely
Chris Bryant
Signed on behalf of: Chris Bryant (Rhondda), Tom Watson (West Bromwich East), Sion Simon (Birmingham Erdington), David Wright (Telford), Wayne David (Caerphilly), Khalid Mahmood (Birmingham Perry Barr), Jim Sheridan (Paisley and Renfrewshire North), Ian Lucas (Wrexham), Hywel Francis (Aberavon), Mark Tami (Alyn and Deeside), Kevan Jones (North Durham), Mark Lazarowicz (Edinburgh North and Leith), Anne MacKechin (Glasgow North), David Hamilton (Midlothian), Chris Mole (Ipswich).
Where are they now?
Chris Bryant - Parliamentary Secretary, Office of the Leader of the House of Commons
Tom Watson - Parliamentary Secretary, Cabinet Office
Sion Simon - Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills
Wayne David - Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Wales Office
Ian Lucas - Assistant Government Whip
Hywel Francis - Chairman, Welsh Affairs Select Committee
Mark Tami - Assistant Government Whip
Kevan Jones - Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Ministry of Defence
Mark Lazarowicz - Special representative of the Prime Minister on carbon trading working with the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change.
Ann McKechin - Parliamentary Under Secretary of State, Scotland Office
Chris Mole - Assistant Government Whip
The rest: (Khalid Mahmood, Jim Sheridan, David Wright, David Hamilton) must be wondering when their gravy will arrive.
353. I think that is the case!
354 As a pension scheme trustee, I remember the fiscal commentators saying in 1997 how clever Gordo was to rob pension schemes of 5 billion a year + by removing dividend tax relief. I thought at the time it would be disastrous, and so it has proved.
356. Great reserch Herbert P.
342
Although there’s not much point if Nick is going to be so blindly loyal. I’ve given Nick the benefit of the doubt in the past, even voted for him in 2001 against a very unimpressive conservative.
In the recent debate between Nick and the other Broxtowe PPCs, the Conservative, Anna Soubry accused Nick of often saying one thing in Westminster and another thing in the constituency. Ms Soubry has of course been accused by Nick of being partisan in his newsletters. Rather amusingly, towards the end of the debate she said something like ‘Oh come off it Nick, on election day you’ll be wearing a red rosette, so don’t try and pretend you’re here representing some sort of rainbow coalition!’
Now Nick is free from the PPS shackles, I’d like to see him being as independent and non-partisan in Westminster as he tries to appear in Broxtowe.
353 I dont think anyone really knows Maggie. And thats the frightening part.
360 research?
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/rosa_prince/blog/2008/10/06/curry_house_coup_completed_by_gordon_browns_reshuffle
those virginia polls are horrible for mccain
In amongst the economic doom-and-gloom, a good news story as Harrow council sees sense:
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jbx2a58PGHaoSnWG7TFqGFY_lILQ
Their meaning has become one of the most perplexing riddles of modern life, but soon “stakeholder engagements” and “multi-agency approaches” could be a thing of the past - in one corner of the capital at least.
Harrow Council has banned seven of the most bewildering jargon phrases when staff are speaking to members of the public. Civil enforcement officers, school crossing patrollers and civic amenity sites will be replaced by traffic wardens, lollipop ladies and rubbish tips, under new guidelines.
The council has told its employees to use plain English substitutes for council jargon at every opportunity. The list of banned phrases was drawn up after Harrow councillors asked a panel of local people about their experiences of dealing with council staff.
356
I can’t claim total credit.
I read Rosa Prince blog in the Daily Telegraph.
My sympathies are with Nick P losing out to by Sion Simon
[353] - Some of it, yes, but I think there’s an extent to which it is owed in all directions and it’s not clear who ends up losing money overall or not, and since most companies liabilities exceed their assets by a lot not all of these contracts can necessarily be covered, so it could be that every bank loses money. There’s not always real money behind the debt.
361. I hope so! He gets a lot of stick on here from many posters including yours truely when I have succombed to the alchol demon!
He is still an MP though and knows how to mix at well as the next man! It is better for electors in Broxtowe to have a member who is not bound by the payroll vote in hard times. His vote is now worth more to his voters than it was as a payroll vote. Meanwhile I have a Labour member who I am told has moved further away from Huddersfield to North of Leeds if my Local Labour sources are to believed! Interesting move! Maybe Nick should consider a late move as I think Sheerman must be angling for a peerage (Huddersfield is one of the only local seats to stay Labour on the recent massive 36K poll!).
368. By that I mean Sheerman may well use it as a late minute retirement in favour of a new Labour candidate in return for a peerage. The last Labour member was a peer briefly before his untimely death!
345. It seems that Guido agrres with me on the Bank rate debate:
http://www.order-order.com/2008/10/just-as-well-they-banned-short-selling.html
agrres= agrees
I know how he feels, I’m getting bored of Chicken Tonight, too.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/west_yorkshire/7654406.stm
The first winner of Mr Gay UK stabbed a man to death before cutting a piece of flesh from his thigh, cooking it and trying to eat it, a court has heard.
363. At least he looked it up. Lol
356. Christ, the real scum of the Labour Party there.
368 Err Martin, Hell would freeze over b4 Nick Palmer voted against a Labour Govt.
375. Mr Palmer now has a chance to make a name for himself. Brown might regret this one. And they’ll be no shortage of voices around Mr Palmer encouraging him to cause mischief.
375. Depends i would of thought! All sorts of Tories asserted local factors over national running upto 1997!
The game has shifted nationally and due to Brown’s reshuffle locally. With an oppinion poll rating as dire as Browns if you were in NP’s shoes you would be playing your cards in a way that maximised your chance of survival! I know I would!
Personally, I think Sarah Palin is still vastly overrated. When I read that she “saved” McCain, that’s just funny. Generic Fundamentalist VP saved McCain from losing his base.
It’s not because I disagree with her. I hate Karl Rove, but he’s brilliant. I just think that Palin is not a very impressive politician. She’s not an inspiring orator, she’s not an intellectual adapting and expanding the GOP brand, she has made plenty of stark administrative mistakes in her short career in Alaska. Is she Sarah Barracuda? I have no doubt she’s extremely ambitious and cold-blooded. Still, I wait to see a memo or report showing her a a Machiavellian strategist in the McCain campaign, or any kind of public statement that betrays brilliance. Being vicious without enough talent does not make a good pol.
Apart from the fact that she’s a huge relief to the McCain-hating GOP base and has a cozy back story, she’s just pretty useless.
Btw. in several states, voter registration ends today. Those states include the battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio, and Virginia. I would assume that having a considerable lead during the voter registration period is a pretty good starting point for Obama.
358 MTF - It may have been £5bn per annum in 1997, but it’s around £14bn per annum now a fact invariably forgotten by so-called expert commentators. That means by the end of the current tax year, Brown will have grabbed around £100bn from private sector pension schemes, that’s £100,000,000,000 and counting. This enormous grab has resulted in the death of final salary related occupational pension schemes in the private sector, whilst employees in the ever growing public sector continue to enjoy final salary related and inflation-linked pension benefits.
This will really hit over the coming year when pension scheme benefit statements will also reflect the huge falls in the value of underlying investments.
Had to smile
http://the-daily-pundit.blogspot.com/2008/10/tavernagate-did-osborne-call-liam-fox.html
378. Yes, that was a commitment to public sector employment at the cost of private sector employment, probably likely to be continued for years!
164 Who is profitting from the financial crisis ?
whoever is short the market is benefitting.
even though you cannot go short many financial stocks you can do it for instance with futures. For instance going short just 1 S&P contract at the end of Friday at 1099 would yield a profit of 60-70 points ie. $15000-17500.
Likewise buying the currency of a country with a reformed financial system, ie. the japanese yen, which is what this climate for risk aversion calls for and simultaneously selling high yielding “risky” currencies, ie. going short NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY would yield similar profits.
I think many traders/speculators have jumped on this “carry trade unwind” bandwagon.
Also don’t forget people like Warren Buffet who exploit the situation and get outrageously sweet deals from the government that rips off the taxpayers. Yes he is long Goldman and he doesn’t like the drop but look at the terms of the deal - it’s a rip-off for the taxpayers and the other shareholders.
He’s back……and all spray briefing cylinders are working.
As Fraser Nelson pointed out, “You could plonk him in a nunnery and he’d have rebellion whipped up by Christmas. It’s just in his nature.”
I have visions of him causing a riot on both sides of the HoC’s while he preens himself in the HoL’s. What ever else you say, his attempts to cause mayhem are much more elegant than the Clunking fists crew.
378 Well, what took Brown to extract in over eleven years has nearly been matched TODAY alone - with £93 billion wiped off the value of stocks on this “Meltdown Monday” (copyright Gordon Brown).
378 PfP Perhaps you could show your working as to how you arrive at the preposterous figure of £14 bn. Or perhaps a link to an authoritative source?
AVE IT CONSIDERED ECONOMIC REPORT
———————————
MELTDOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL
SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
DOW -616! :O And we’re some way off the end of day sell off. Surely we’re looking at a -800 finish?
301. As I predicted a day or two ago, Hutton, Palmer and other fellow travellers mindlessly chanting the ‘we must join the euro’ mantra.
But the post at 315. is closer to the mark. The reason banking crises are often accompanied by currency weakness is that they often require the authorities to engage in large scale monetary expansions as part of the fire-fighting effort. This of course something that is impossible within a currency union controlled by an unaccountable foreign bank.
Finally on rates, there’s no doubt that sharp rate cuts are needed. The LIBOR spread will remain high, but the absolute level of LIBOR will fall, and that’s what matters for borrowers. It’s not enough of course - we need a banking sector recovery plan supported by massive open market operations by the BoE as well. That would impossible in the euro as well.
What chance of such a coordinated package from a government whose intellectual influences include the likes of Hutton, Palmer et al.? errr…
378 384
I believe it is called “compound interest” .
£5 billion compounded at 10% pa.. is worth £80Billion in capital.
At 10% that is worth £8 billion pa.
Add the £5 billion equals £13billion.
Palin will NOT head the ticket. Even the Republicans wouldn’t be that stupid. Hillary Clinton has more liklihood of being the Republican nominee. I think though that Palin’s time is almost up. If the report on troopergate is negative she will have to step down.
Glenrothes officially set for November 6th.
Isn’t it comforting to know that as the economy crashes around us and the UKPLC runs out of money, the government has got £12bn to spare on spying on all our calls and email.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article4882600.ece
UN-BE-LIEVA-BLE!!!!!
386- Under 9700 now, there goes another barrier (the 9720-9750 seemed to be a stable floor for a few hours…)
Any financial news out of Italy today?
Don’t recall seeing any, which could be a bit ominous.
More than 1000 points down since friday morning
Looking at Drudge and the Fox news website, this seems to have been the day all the really nasty attacks on Obama were supposed to start. Events seem to have overtaken the Republicans once again.
393- Milan lost 8.24%
388 I was aware that it was a lot more than 5 billion a year but didnt want to complicate matters too much (KISS)
Adam Smith at 384 says preposterous, perhaps he would be good enough to qualify where the word preposterous came from, as I am sure that Madasafish is on the money.
In any event the point is that Brown screwed pensions BIGTIME, just like he has everything else.
IG Index is pricing a 75-point fall on the Footsie opening. I wonder if this includes the discount for Alastair Darling’s expected TV appearances.
386
9550 is my eod forecast
395 And Obama seems to have plenty of shots left in his locker too!
DOW -729.
Dow now down more than 700
398
FTSE to bottom - temporarily around 4429 is my guess.
I’ve put an offer in for the whole of the DOW for $100…..
An analyst was on CNBC a minute ago, he said that they expected to the dow to finish on a day low. 9400-9450 is about right in my opinion.
The market is desperate for an interest rate cut.
404
No bank will lend you the money
By the time I’m a pensioner, the average person relying on a private sector pension will be about 78 and will be waiting on and cleaning house for those 58 year olds who are funded by a state sector pension.
Here’s the link to the latest Obama film:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g72BuIvMbWY&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/
A far more effective hit than Palin’s rather clumsy attacks.
Jeff Randall’s on. If you weren’t miserable and scared before - you soon will be.
If Iceland were to join the Euro now all the other Zone countries would have to carry the cost and risk of their extraordinary bailout. Won’t happen. They have enough problems of their own at the moment without taking on more.
With one exception: if the Iceland collapse directly threatened the Euro itself. But how that could be the case is difficult to see. Even their overextended banking investments in the zone if sold off cheap could benefit Euro businesses. Its always good business to buy cheap, and every recession has winners that way.
92.
“As GW Bush said - looks like this suckas goin’ down”
fear not, Mandelson will be lending him a helping hand too.
#286 Mirthios:
On 2 May 1997, FTSE closed at 4455.60
6 October 2008, FTSE closed at 4589.19.
FTSE futures for now showing 4450, pointing to the stock market now at the same level when Labour came to power and falling.
Well done Gordon, some record.
SkyNews, Martin Sorrell does not see a [n economic] recovery until 2010, and said recovery will be modest….
Despite the economic bad news - which is partly the result of the Labour government here, don’t pannick!
412, do we have PMQs on Wednesday?
Tricky for Cameron. Trickier for Brown.
406
414 Welcome back Martin - we have missed you (ok the LDs haven’t!)
389. An on-topic comment! And one I agree with (more or less). Palin might have enthused part of the base but it’s worth remembering why McCain got the nomination in the first place - his ability to reach out beyond the base. He certainly won’t be forced out now, unless there’s some very large scandal we’ve not heard of, or some dreadful mistake he makes between now and the election. Indeed, as MJCGP rightly says, Palin is the more likely of the two to be forced off the ticket. Even if he were to stand down due to health problems (for example), it’s by no means certain that Palin would get the nomination - and then she’d have to win for a payout (though presumably Mike would lay most of his profits off before election day were she to somehow end up heading the ticket).
The other thing to note are the market rules. I believe most if not all are set to pay out shortly after Nov 4th - they are about who wins the popular election, not the electoral college vote or who is inaugurated in January. That rules out the possibility of a McCain win followed by Palin taking over one way or another.
Having said all that, I backed Palin at 1000/1 as soon as she was put forward as McCain’s running mate and have since laid it off at a profit, so even a wobble in McCain’s campaign or health could produce a return for Mike.
415. Morris Dancer: do we have PMQs on Wednesday?
Yes: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmfbusi/81006a01.htm
Tricky for Cameron. Trickier for Brown.
Nah. He’ll just take whatever action is necessary to get through the half hour.
411. Thought it was Bill that said that?
409. Whats Randall saying?
415. 4 questions on the credit crunch. 2 knockabout questions on Mandy, with lots of embarassing quotes.
CAn I add my name to those who feel Nick P would make a better Minister than Simon and several other toadie Brownites. Malcolm Wicks was also one of the few ministers who could sometimes talk sense.
I see DC is so threatened by the Cabinet reshuffle that he has appointed a shadow to Ed Millibland and a couple of other appointments and that’s it.
What more can go wrong for the GOP? Well Pa Broon could fly over to do some doostep campaigning with Sarah Palin. No doubt as soon as he takes off back to Britain the supervolcano under Yellowstone park would decide to roar into life!
Watching Andrew Marr yesterday, it was interesting to see Cable and Osborne clearly sharing many ideas with Darling up in Edinburgh in a completely different planet saying much but really with no solutions. I couldnt help but wonder if in Osborne and Cable we have 2 men who can work well across party boundaries?
Can someone please tell that nobhead in number ten to stop boasting how he is going to reinvent international commerce, sort out the yanks and then have a strong word with the Germans. They are all laughing at him, and meanwhile nothing is being achieved even while he and badger endlessly spout nonsense about “whatever it takes”.
Now clearly the Tories and Lib dems have come to a consensus that we have to handle it in the same way as the swedish banking crisis and recapitalise banks, fine let us go and do it, and stop the ridiculous positoning. Brown already deserves to and will lose the next election but his constant dithering, spin and nonsense is taking us all down with him.
I fail to see how a rate cut will be beneficial at the moment.
It might help the overextended investor or mortgage holder but it would adversely effect the pound and that is so low it is already importing massive inflation which the MPA highlighted last month.
It would deter savers and banks need savers, reduce bank cash flows. Banks may simply ignore a cut on savings and loans. There is no reason to think Libor will ease.
As someone else said it is the flow of money which is the problem and that is keeping the price up and, until the underlying problem is solved, surely will continue to do so?
304.
““The Whatever is Necessary Act, 2008″”
subtitled: “I have a cunning plan….”
According to Ben Brogan the Gordon Brown plotters have run up the white flag at tonights PLP meeting
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/10/plotters-run-up.html
413. 2010? I’m thinking 2011, 2012 or perhaps 2013. Not the ideal circumstances in which to be looking for my first job.
397 Four factors not taken into account in the KISS calculation above:
The tax never cost pension funds as much as £5 bn in any year.
Pension funds have been selling equities in favour of other classes, reducing their losses
Even within equities pension funds have been selling UK and buying overseas further reducing their losses.
Dividends were down (due to buybacks) or near constant for much of the period.
…and that’s before we even start to guess where the 10% accumulation rate comes from.
Don’t get me wrong, the measure was harmful for pensions, but it is a mistake to overstate its importance - not least because much more heinous anti-pension measures such as the forced conversion of £300 billion of expectations into guarantees in June 2003 don’t get the attention they deserve.
384 Why do you describe the figure of £14bn as “preposterous” without considering the facts and why should I bother to explain these to someone with such a closed mind?
Try applying the compounding average earnings increases of 3.6% over the past 11 years and then add the compounding opportunity cost at 7% per annum on the lost investment income over the same 11 year period and you will very readily see how the initial sum of £5.5bn per annum has now escalated to £14bn per annum.
Breaking news, John McCain has just discovered that Islam forbids usury. He’s just announced a new election-winning policy of handing control of all US investment banks to Ahmedinojad. Iran has stalled this move, claiming that they need rewarding for this foul responsibility. McCain has told them that as long as they do the job well he will promise NEVER to allow Sarah Palin anywhere near any international airport.
425. Ever onwards to the edge of the cliff then!
DOW down 800 FTSE100 down 535.
This is serious folks.
416.
“Martin - we have missed you”
But our aim will surely improve soon.
Go on ‘ave it. Admit you are really Peter Mandelson.
423. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon. At present, we are faced with a potential monetary implosion - inflation will be 1% or lower by 2010. Additional currency weakness is irrelevant and will anyway be short-lived as the other major central banks will be doing likewise. And of course LIBOR will ease if you cut rates, even if the spread remains wide.
It’s not a panacea and needs to be accompanied by other measures, but it will help.
Watching Sky News I am furious. There is The Sun’s economic editor[?] going on about businesses leaving Britain because of our high tax and how the fiscal rules are shot to ribbons.
What were these people doing when the Labour Party were trashing the joint?
Backing Labour and mocking the Tories for saying Brown was a cr*p Chancellor!
431 S&P and Nasdaq look almost certain to crash today (b oth approaching 9% with 70 mins trading to go) Dow could head that way too
If the Dow officially crashes then well, its already bleak for the Nikkei but does this not risk becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy?
its only money……
don’t forget, Gordon Brown will do whatever is neceesary to ensure the stability of the system!
hasn’t he just been saying this for over a week now without doing anything?
nationalisation of all the banks perhaps on Wednesday? mind you that would be a nightmare too. Whichever way they turn they’re in the shit.
434.
“mocking the Tories for saying Brown was a cr*p Chancellor!”
When they should have been mocking the Tories for backing most of the Tory policies of the c**p chancellor!
434. The Sun are kind of schizophrenic at the moment. They are inching towards Cameron, but still hedging their bets with Brown. Mind you, The Mails position is much more bizarre.
They can’t nationalise HSBC. They have more deposits than loans.
I concur with MTF on the pensions figures. 3 months ago before the recent stock market crash, my pension fund with STandard Life had fallen 25% in 12 months and the total fund was worth less than when John Major left Downing St. Now I probably owe STandard Life money. Gordon Brown = robbing thieving bastard!
435. An official crash for the DOW is -1000 isn’t it?
I’m expecting the latest Populus poll any time now. It should be up on the Times website
441 it’s a 10% drop I think
#311 ATID
Sion Simon is MP for Birmingham Erdington in which the Conservatives had a majority this year of almost 1500.
There’s a lot of disgruntled working class former Labour voters there so I wouldn’t class him as that safe.
442. I was just looking Mike. Can’t see it yet.
If it looks like crash and quacks like crash it is a CRASH!
432 ‘Go on ‘ave it. Admit you are really Peter Mandelson’
I’M A FIGHTER NOT A QUITTER
Jeff Randall’s quotes of the day include:
…I’ve given-up on trying to forecast the market… and
…after manic-Monday, we will have tin-hat Tuesday….
438. I think Murdoch is nearly on board now. I think he realises the public finances are kn*ckered under Labour and that the political cycle is turning, even if its rather haltingly doing so at the moment. He will go back to Brown only reluntantly.
I think its telling that the NoW did their poll of marginals asking if the voters were going back to Labour for now or for good.
He discovered the marginals want them out in a few week/months, even if some of them want them to stay for now. How does he read polls after that?
IMO Murdoch has sniffed out whose support is soft and temporary.
436. Has anyone plotted a graph of the frequency of Brown’s commitments to ensuring the stability of the system against the actual stability of the share prices, money-market rates, bank collapses and bail-outs etc.?
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/06/happening-now-palin-in-florida-2/#more-22858
Palin for President!
451. Fine. But I do hope, once the Tories regain power, that they cut off the hands (figuratively speaking) of this meddling, eccentric egomaniac foreigner and shut him out of British politics for good.
If the country is terrifed, it will be a good poll for Labour.
Time for the Tories to hold their nerve and keep to their course, Obama style.
453. That looks like exactly the same speech she made in California on Saturday.
450. In honour of Paris’s spectacular drop I think today has to be Merde Monday.
I wait with baited breath to see what Turd Tuesday has in store for us…
454- agree entirely.
455- sally- all the Tories have to do is to stay calm, lock Redwood in a vault, and steady as she goes. A 150 seat majority is there for the taking with Brown at the helm.
BTW- have been impressed by Osborne during the crisis. He really is growing in stature.
New Democracy Corp poll for Ohio :
McCain 43% .. Obama 49%
http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/10/obama-emerges-ahead-in-ohio/
And in other news of the day.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4887157.ece
Stop Playing Politics with Terror:
Let’s get real. This will just not work. It is an extremely convoluted process that will be unpopular with those who have to make it work. The police and Crown Prosecution Service will have the unenviable task of preparing the necessary papers. Already, the number of police officers taken away from frontline duties to the backroom task of administering control orders has mushroomed; the same will surely occur with this legislative monster. At the height of a terrorist investigation, when lives may be at risk, all efforts should be directed to solving or preventing the crime rather than form-filling or preparing a politically acceptable case for MPs and ministers.
Dow has rallied back from 800 dwn to 620 or so down - although i wouldn’t be surprised to see a sell-off into the bell at 9pm.
Go long on candles, paraffin lamps and long-johns:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/power-cuts-feared-in-uk-nuclear-plants-crisis-951810.html
At least the anti-nuclear greenies will be pleased
457- and standing well clear from woo woo Wednesday, back to turd Thursday a quick respite with farty Friday, and then full on sh*t Saturday and Sunday.
This crisis is wall to wall shite.
Jack sounds as if you man Obama has it -Can anything go wrong now?
444 MIke do you know if there is a Mandy question in this poll?
New thread with today’s Marf cartoon
I have been waiting for the latest Populus but there is no sign and I have not had the usual confirmatory email telling me that it is coming.
200 points pulled back in the last 20 mins…
@458. Actually Osborne been fairly lightweight. He just looks good relative to Darling - who appears to be in some Treasury loopy land - I swear that it does my blood pressure no good every time he repeats that 98% figure. FFS we need to worry about the bit that is liquid, not guaranteed and afraid. In other words the 2% of accounts and 40% of assets that are not covered. I hear Treasury speak coming from Darling as well - the whole worrying about taxpayers is typical idiocy from those idiots (the civil servants). He needs to get his head out of cloud cuckoo land and do something. Brown needs to get a bloody grip. Every day of crisis inflicts damage on the financial system that cannot be fully repaired. I know that we will get to the right solution (almost certainly) eventually, but the sooner, the less bad the effect on the economy.
Brogan is right - GB was on sparkling form (yes really - easily his best PLP showing) at the PLP this evening and the critics concede that the moment has passed.
Broxtowe Cat: thank you - that’s occurred to me too. It’s trickier being dispassionate at national level, since critical bits get quoted out of context, but pb.com has given me useful practice in tactful disagreement (with role models like seanT, how can I go wrong?).
Good news guys! IG are now showing the fall in the Dow below 500 points, approx 300 points up from their day’s low.
458.
A conversation with my [politcally bored] other half about Osborne took me by surprise on Cameron’s conference speech day.
Him: ‘Ooww I like him!, he always seems to know what he’s talking about’.
Me: ‘But he’s not a media friendly politican and he makes snotty quips.’
Him:’Yes but I like that and I don’t like typical politicans’.
btw Tories staying calm??? Hhuummm.
btw again. Any nearer getting your vote?
Looks like devious English speculators have done it for RBS - Alex Salmond will be fuming .