Is Labour’s boost confined to places where it doesn’t matter?
October 7th, 2008Could the move to Gord be in the heartlands - not in the marginals?
Firstly the caveats: As I’ve been saying for weeks polling during the conference season is almost always very odd and we need to wait until the end October surveys at the earliest before we can start drawing conclusions. Secondly looking at sub-samples in polling data can often deceive.
But on Saturday the Guardian’s polling writer whose judgement I respect, Julian Glover, produced an analysis on the latest national ICM voting intention survey which identified a trend, which if backed up in the coming weeks and months could have a dramatic impact on how national vote shares convert to seats won at the next general election. For Glover suggested that the recent increase in Labour support might be being confined to its heartlands.
If this indeed does prove to be the case then the much-quoted 10% vote margin that the Tories need to achieve a commons majority might not be the requirement after all.
The move back to Labour in its heartlands might explain the vast disparity that we saw on Sunday with between the standard national survey and the ICM Labour marginals poll. The latter had the Tories doing considerably better and Labour doing considerably worse in what will be the key LAB>CON battlegrounds.
What’s taken the Glover thesis is a step forward has been the detailed data from the latest YouGov poll. Reproduced above is the regional break-down from that poll and a comparison with the last national YouGov poll before the local and London elections on May 1st this year.
The big disparities are in the north and even more so in Scotland. Just look at the shares in the October survey and compare them with April. You should note that the Scottish shares are not just a fluke from one poll. In the previous survey taken after Brown’s conference speech the Scottish and northern numbers were in the same area.
YouGov’s Scottish shares in its past two polls have been 42% and 43% which is somewhat higher that the 39.5% that Labour got there at the general election. This can only mean that elsewhere Brown’s party is polling disproportionately worse. There are, of course, very few LAB>CON marginals in Scotland.
This is one we are going to have to watch.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
No (std answer to a Mike Smithson Question)
Does anyone really believe the Tories need a 10% lead to get a majority?
So how do you deal with the polling points
By the way, does this poll mean Labour are probably going to hold Glenrothes? Or am I misreading it completely.
1. Trying to recreate the ‘Will Obama be the candidate’ moment by Roger?
Latest Rasmussen tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 52%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
5 That was a pb.com golden great wasn’t it!
4 LOL
Bad news for the SNP - they may have peaked.
8. Hey, idiot, I’m growing tired of your useless comments. Labour are leading comfortably in Scotland in this poll, so is it such an unreasonable suggestion to make?
O/T - Russia’s quid pro quo?
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2203316/coffee-house-exclusive-what-the-russians-want-in-return-for-bailing-out-iceland.thtml
5 Actually Mike does have a bet that John McCain will be replaced. SO maybe it isn’t a done deal. It would funny if Roger 10% was right in the end!
10 Let’s just say holding Glenrothes will come as such a shock to Labour, it will probably result in several more by-elections!
Well I’m gonna call it right now.
LAB HOLD GLENROTHES
You heard it here first.
The last time I met Julian Glover, was when I slept on his sofa on the night of the Newbury by-election. Pleasant chap. Was a LD once.
Actually it is still significant. Yes, the election will be decided in the marginal seats and there is ample polling evidence that these seats are substantially more Tory than they were. However in 1997 Labour were recording record levels of support even in safe Tory seats (and lets face it, if it stayed Tory in 97 it is pretty safe!) I see no evidence of that happening in reverse yet. This backs up the feeling that the Tory lead is actually a Government drag, id est not pro Cameron but anti Labour. Until the Conservatives start to be clear about their plans in public and in detail there will be no build of support to them, no great desire for a Conservative government. As long as the support is soft, Labour could (theoretically) turn it around. I don’t think they will, but they could.
11. Not a surprise. They did indeed start handing out passports in Ukraine a few weeks ago too. They are playing for real, it’s not just some kind of demand to be treated nicely.
10
So Labour are the nasty party!
14. charlie = the red “‘Ave it” !
Let the battle commence..
14 - Unless it is Jack W’s ARSE, I won’t bet the farm on it!
14 - Well, I think Lab will hold it.
Labour will be destroyed because another 1.5m will be unemployed by the time the next election comes around. No amount of spinning will be able to disguise what people see with their own eyes.
An end to boom and bust, we were promised.
The problem with this poll is that geographical distinctions used are very simplistic. I’m guessing we are taking ‘North’ as a Labour heartland and therefore can dismiss it as irrelevant to the election battleground but what YouGov here defines as the North here contains many of the most marginal seats in the country e.g. North West and West Yorkshire.
On a purely anecdotal level I find it hard to believe Labour are leading the Conservatives in any region.
14
=
son of Gabble.
16. 40%+ all the way through conference season as well as the high figures saying there is no chance of people changing their vote suggests a pretty hard rather than soft core now.
Brown gave his conference a core vote strategy. That’s never going to win him an election. Should boost turnout in safe areas and it might save one or two seats. The latter is much less likely. Any core supporters who come back are likely to be outweighed by switchers/non-voters going tory.
The SNP has not had its annual national conference yet (16-19 October, Perth). Common sense would dictate that we look at Scottish voting intention figures at least 14 days after that conference ends, so that all 4 party’s “bounces” have resolved themselves.
16. “Until the Conservatives start to be clear about their plans in public and in detail there will be no build of support to them, no great desire for a Conservative government.”
But then if they do, Brown, with no principles other than a demented lust for power, will simply nick the popular ones. I think the Tories are absolutely right that the Opposition should not be a government think tank and focus group combined.
This chimes precisely with the point I made a few days ago that the recovery in the Labour vote is mainly to do with a slight rebound in their voter numbers (from I assume undecideds), rather than a decline in the share of either the Conservatives or the Liberal Democrats. These are likely to be their core voters returning to Labour after Gordon’s slightly left wing speech. It isnt an “economic competency” shift - that would have required the Tories or the Liberal Democrats to lose votes. Where should these returning core voters be coming from, if not from the heartlands. So, Mike S, spot on.
As for Glenrothes, I suspect that the usual by-election dynamic - the desire to give the incumbent government a bloody nose will still mean a difficult time for Labour, but perhaps a far better chance to hold onto these heartland seats at the GE?
Who are the “others” who are being so badly squeezed in the north?
And charlie’s question about Glenrothes is an interesting one, though of course national/regional (delete according to allegiance) polling bears no resemblance to the result in an individual constituency.
Interesting to see that if we were to believe the evidence of these subsamples, the Tories have actually strengthened their position in Midlands/Wales in the last 6 months. A 52/30/12 split in London implies that the Tories would win Frank Dobson’s seat. It is an interesting question how much the Tories’ organisation will impede them in some seats that they might otherwise have a chance of winning in London.
Charlie, as I tell Gabble, it’s hope that will crush you in the end….
I met someone whom I know is a solid Labour voter, and we were discussing the economy. Most of what he said is unprintable, but I dont think he will be voting Labour, That said I dont think he will vote Tory either!.
306. Peter the Punter - “I think we should be advised of the name of your ‘other half’, so that we know when you are operating as a tag team.”
I thought that ChristinaD was unnecessarily coy in her answer:
“I thought it was common knowledge.
We might both be Tories, but alas, that is usually the only thing we agree on when it comes to politics. He is very much in line with Easterross’s views on the political landscape in Scotland, makes for some interesting discussions though.”
PtP, I was under the impression that Fitaloon was Chris’ husband:
http://www.microshaft.co.uk/
The one thing that may have switched a few minds in the conference season was the ‘novice’ line. Cameron could deal with that by bringing back Ken Clarke (assuming he’d want to accept). We aren’t going to join the Euro and it would totally neutralise any Brown advantage.
For personal reaons, I don’t think Cameron would want to move his Notting Hill chum Osborne.
27 Giving the SNP their Conference “bounce” just ahead of the Glenrothes poll! Smart work, Labour….
‘national/regional (delete according to allegiance) polling bears no resemblance to the result in an individual constituency.’
Of course, but surely logic would state that if Labour are leading so comfortably in Scotland (on an admittedly small sample), they would hold one of their safest seats in the region?
There was always going to be a core vote bounce from Gordon’s speech - that was precisely how it was targeted. It has hardly dented the top-line Tory position, so I think Mike’s analysis has some merit.
However, this is likely to be a very short term phenomenon. Holding onto nurse for want of something worse is not going to cut it if unemployment rises by 500,000 to 1m next year. And where do we expect unemployment rises to be the highest? Labour’s heartlands, you say? Give that man a banana.
16 - I don’t know how focussed Labours campaigning was in 1997, but I get the feeling that the Conservatives are very focussed on the marginals now, so I wouldn’t expect them to have much increased support in the safe Labour seats. I don’t think it’s much of an indication as to whether people are particularly pro Conservative or anti Labour.
In fact, if you get a situation where the Conservatives do campaign in safe Labour areas, we aren’t doing too badly. I, for example, campaigned in the local elections this year in a safe Labour ward in one of the ten safest Labour constituencies in England and picked up almost 20% of the vote. That was on the strength of one leaflet delivery and no canvassing. I appreciate that 20% is fairly modest, but a few years ago you wouldn’t have given us a hope of getting 10% whatever the Labour government was doing.
Do the SNP usually get a conference bounce Stuart? Genuine question by the way, not being sarcastic, I have no idea what the answer is.
i suppose labour could fight glentrothes saying “hey, you know us, we hate the greedy banking bastards that did this to the country, only we can sort it out as the tories are all city spivs”
which ignores the fact that there are as many city spivs in the labour party, rich hedge funders and bankers bankrolling new labout, and that they have had 11 years to “control the greedy bankers”. but done nothing about it.
expect Labour to be thrased in Glenrothes. The government going to become more popular because of this? No the problem is getting worse, has been for weeks, and nothing has been done.
That the government could benefit from these events is the bigggest most Orwellian sinister Spin Lie ever dreamed up by a government PR team. People - don’t believe it!
Frank B don’t you mean, no time for a has-been.
37. shoulda bin… ‘…for fear of…’ Apols.
36. I think Labour will just hold it. I think that as Brown is a neighbouring and very local MP many people will vote out of loyalty to him. Probably will be tight tho.
14. Methinks you are the idiot, Labour’s own polling in the constituency had them 5000 behind SNP. I very much doubt that Labour have any chance whatsoever of winning this one. No matter where you look in Scotland it is hard to find any good being said of Labour.
5/2 at Ladbrokes is probably fair value for Labour to hold it - suspect they will be 7/4 by the end of today…
45. Do Betfair have a book for this yet?
41. You have to accept that the novice line was effective. About as as you could get, but nonetheless effective. Ken Clarke’s return would change all of that.
I’m not a lobbyisy for ken by the way - although I did suggest Gordon give him the Commisioner job. Get him before Cameron does.
Ladbrokes have 5/2 Obama to win over 370 electoral votes. Good value?
28 PSJ, didn’t Cameron say, on his election as party leader (something Labour should try) that he would put forward policies where he felt he had something to offer, that he would not be scared of the Government stealing the idea because it would be in the national interest and the voters would know the truth. Or was that just posturing, like his silly pledge on EPP-ED membership during the leadership campaign. It bothers me, as a Conservative, that he is still vulnerable to the charge of being vacuous with no policies. People are crying out for a platform to follow as an alternative to Labour’s defunct statist solution to everything.
45. I wonder if 5-1 isn’t more like it.
44. Methinks you’re a pompous moron. I love how you can’t come on here and try and ask a question without getting a simple ‘LOL’ from Maggie Thatcher fan, and then being labelled an idiot by MalcolmG.
Scum.
44
To be fair, the Labour poll figure is a lot higher than one would have imagined? I still think Labour will get a bloody nose again.
40 I don’t think the SNP will be shy of mentioning the hedge fund millionaires and bank share shorters who have supported Gordon Brown’s offices and the Labour Party.
RBS is perhaps also a factor - Labour might say they saved RBS if state recapitalises it.
47. as ‘last resort’ as you can get.
52 In Scotland that is
40. Surely SNP get a bounce from saying “if only we had been in charge. No Tory or Labour spivs in the SNP. Save BoS/RBS. Send Gordon a message.” type of thing.
O/T anecdotal wittering about the scale of A-A turnout in early voting in Georgia. Highly partisan (Daily Kos) but it does suggest Georgia is very much in play.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/7/7385/31228/524/621898
44 - “No matter where you look in Scotland it is hard to find any good being said of Labour.”
So how come they’ve gone up 15 points in six months then?
O/T Anyone know a good personal inflation calculator?
The City is backing Brown:
Howard Wheeldon of BGC Partners, a City firm, said: “Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling clearly have no understanding whatsoever of how to achieve an orderly market. Leaks, leaks and more leaks from who knows where have led markets to understandably conclude this morning that HM Government is testing the water about investing £45 billion into the major clearing banks.”
“Our Government is making a bad situation worse and it is all so unnecessary.”
51 - Hey, calm down. I agree with you - there was no need for the rudeness. But don’t blast off into the stratosphere….
59 I use a tape measure…
Hard to believe that with both major banks down the tiolet and potentially huge job losses from them and the associated disaster that would ensue will have done much for Labours chances. Also given that it is a very small sample and the fact that you can scour any Scottish blog without hardly finding a good word said about Labour and labour’s own poll that has them 5000 behind. Doubt they will retain this seat.
state recapitalises it - every one of us will pay in our taxes anyway. what a mess Labour have got us into. straight back to the 70’s with banking crises and oil shocks. strikes this winter no doubt.
38 Labour was very adept at targetting marginal seats in 97 - that is why their vote went down on 92 but the seats was so dramatically high!
Charlie. I wondered the same. So we are both idiots
Of course I will be quite happy to be proved an idiot.
Professor Thingy from Southampton Uni suggested it was possible for them to win IF they picked up enough.
Did’t sound like he would put his RBS shares on it though.
Well it just annoys me that you can’t come on here and have an opinion without getting shouted down by a bunch of fools who have nothing to give in response.
Re the Glenrothes by election, Easteross has spelled it out several times, SNP by 5000 votes
60 - Yeah, that is their MO, as can be seen when they crippled the remnants of the housing market by flying the stamp duty kite.
59. Compare outgoings on your bank statements over the last year.
60 Did you get that from the BBC?
I think we are seeing a mirror of the campaign in the run up to 1997.
The Tories now (as Labour were then) are campaigning hard in a swathe of Labour seats and have more money and enthusiasm in those seats. Their campaigners are more likely to be using up to date techniques, delivering more literature and knocking on more doors.
The Lib Dems are doing similar things in a smaller batch of seats where they are the challengers, and working their socks off to hold on where they are the incumbents.
The likely result of all this is that there will be an above average swing to the Tories in the Con/Lab marginals and some big swings to the Lib Dems in LD/Lab marginals.
51. Very adult, grow up or stay in your playpen.
The two latest YouGov sub-samples have Labour support in Scotland at 42% and 43% (highly unlikely IMHO considering that they only got 39% at the UK GE in 2005).
However Julian Glover in the Guardian a couple of days ago said that the combined nationalist vote in the latest ISM/Guardian poll was an astounding 7%. The combined SNP/Plaid vote was only 2.1% in 2005. So that is a more than threefold increase.
Which one is nearer the truth: YouGov or ICM?
74. typo: “latest ICM/Guardian poll”
67. You are the clown who is calling people “Scum” just because they do not agree with you. That adds a lot to the debate , get a life.
16 Paul Norton. Did you watch Cameron’s speech, or just the BBC travesty of it? The speech was packed with sensible policy comments and directions. How can you expect anything else - 1)They are not in government 2)They have no idea of the extent of the mess they will have to clear up or the resources available to do it 3)The Labour party is desperate for new ideas 4)17 months to the GE. A manifesto will be written - the Conservatives would be advised not to issue it before Labour get hold of it.
63.But on the other hand, in a crisis people will tend to cling to what they know. I would expect Labour’s core vote to solidify around them. Brown could, in the normal run of events, start pushing for the swing voters and Tony’s tories when we get nearer the election. But given that our economy is close to collapse, that won’t work and Labour will not win the next election. Life-long labourites may be less likely to desert them in these troubled circumstances, but very few others are going to trust them at all.
73. Silence, minion.
You can’t just go around throwing out insults expecting nothing to happen. People like you bring this site down.
Mum has gone to Iceland - but I doubt she’ll get her cash back…
76. No, not because you don’t agree with me. Because you called me an idiot.
67 - Everyone gets their share of abuse from time to time. Remember the compliments and forget the insults. Sending a volley of abuse back just loses you sympathy that you were otherwise going to get.
81. Please children, can this tantrum take place elsewhere?
16 - this is to underestimate Cameron yet again. Every time a doubter / Labour whistler-in-the-dark points to some perceived Conservative weakness in the fine print of the various polls and surveys, there’s always an embedded assumption that this won’t change between now and polling day.
Thus, “Cameron hasn’t sealed the deal because he has no policies”. Well, that’s not a mistake or an inadvertent omission. Cameron is a moving target and won’t reveal a great deal until the GE.
How big is the sample in the YouGov poll, its normally only 20 or 30 and so is liable to huge inaccuracies, especially as they often weight based on the 2005 GE which bears no resemblance to the 2007 SE, SNP won the equivalent of this seat in 2007 and Labour are seriously more unpopular than they were in 2007.
79 Charlie, you could redeem your credibility somewhat by indicating how much you have backed up your assertion that Labour will hold Glenrothes with bets placed at the bookies….otherwise it is a rather hollow assertion.
79
Er Charle you were the one who started it by calling me an idiot and being very rude to me. People in glass houses….
87. You started it by simply responding to my comment with ‘LOL’.
Anyway, this is getting us nowhere. I have just placed £50 on Labour to hold Glenrothes. My money is now truly where my mouth is!
77 I didn’t watch the speech, I heard it on the radio. I know there were policy comments and directions but the charge still sticks. For some reason (possibly the BBC but more than just them) the message is not getting across that the Conservatives have something to say.
I agree with 1&2 of your points, but remind you that Cameron said at the start that he would not fear Labour stealing his ideas, because the earlier they were implemented the better for the country. Anyway, when Labour have stolen the only concrete policies that anyone associates with the party (IHT and Non Dom changes) everybody knew they were Tory ideas!
Dow back in negative territory - FTSE coming back sharply too.
IMF estimates banking losses to date as $1.4trillion.
sounds like they should apply for a carol vorderman consolidation loan and make easy regular monthly repayment?
Cable is blinking almost as much as Ed Balls on BBC at the moment, weird!
Just heard that the European depositors protection level is being raised to 50K Euros (it was anticpated it would be raised to 100K). What use is that if the UK is £50K and various European countries are unlimited. There is still no level playing field.
Also from last thread:
Re ADs commitment (about the only one and which has been repeated over and over again) to UK Depositors means he has to ensure depositors in Icesave are protected no matter what their balance is. Nothing so far been said on this as far as I can see. Only reference is to the FSCS and 50K limit. Also nobody seems to know what will happen if the Icelandic scheme isn’t able to pay out the initial protection. And timing of payouts? Lots of noise on this weeks ago yet I don’t think anything was decided.
88 “I have just placed £50 on Labour to hold Glenrothes.”
Good for you.
72. One thing to note about any Lib Dem held marginals, according to the politicshome marginals poll, Lib Dem incumbents are the most popular local MPs (and keep in touch the most) so they get a local boost vs national poll swings.
78 The state dependent will cling to them.
The may get an uplift amongst the ‘oldies. But they may be outweighed by the ones who have seen their pensions/savings shot. Though I suspect they voted Tory anyway.
The younger ones may not bother if it looks like Labour are going to lose.
Blair was always petrified of his electorate not thinking it was ‘close’. With the collapse of Old Labour in its heartlands, we don’t know what will happen if it looks certain they are going down.
Alot of Tories dissappeared when things looked hopeless.
88 Well done, that’s the best way to settle any dispute here. I wonder how much people are putting on the Tories.
For the record I think there is a bit of a mob here that tries to put down anyone who deviates from the St Dave meme. You’re well within your rights to object to being called an idiot.
It seems to me after reading all your posts that you started it. You can dish it but cannot take it …
14.”Well I’m gonna call it right now.
LAB HOLD GLENROTHES
You heard it here first.”
Not quite.
67. Chalie,it seems to me after reading all your posts that you started it. You can dish it but cannot take it …
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 44% .. Obama 46%
Yesterday M-41/O-47.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/dailytracker/
100. Interesting observation there, Matthew Pain (I don’t recognise the name, so I’ll assume you’re yet another nameless Tory troll), you clearly didn’t notice Maggie Thatcher Fan’s response to my first post in the thread. But I’m glad to see the euphoria of your leads in the polls has rendered you completely blind.
The fink says Cable is overrated
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/10/following-the-s.html
Sub-samples too small, e.g. Telegraph poll shows a swing to Labour in Scotland, which must be nonsense.
My estimate is that if everything went the Tories way, in particular
a) poor LibDem performance
b) extremely favourable regional swing
c) heavy anti-Labour tactical voting
d) and plenty of luck in the recounts
the Tories might scrape a majority with an 8.5% lead….
but somewhere between 9% and 11% is more likely
‘which must be nonsense.’
Smithson’s law….
96. I think the talk of tories as spivs and speculators is desgned to raise the fear level amongst the flaky voters. And the talk of a lack of policies is an attempt to raise doubts amongst the swing voters.
Regarding that 2nd point, Cameron started his conference speech by saying ‘it is time not to give detailed policies, but a set of values and an idea of character’. He did that. In fact, it was surprisingly right wing, attacking PC, defending marriage, reclaiming Thatcher, supporting the troops; all the right wing buttons were pushed.
The Conservatives have come up with a few big policies that make it very clear where they are going on a number of areas (schools, border police), and as soon as an election is called, more policies will be unveiled. It is useless for Labour to hope this line will work come an election, but its all they really have right now, and translates into the plea ‘better the devil you know’.
103. As well as being economically overrated, his conference speech confirmed that he also isn’t funny.
Stalin to Mr. Bean? The coverage that ‘joke’ got was unbelievable, I smiled the first time I heard it, but it literally saturated the media for weeks, pathetic!
‘Labour launches byelection campaign in Glenrothes
- Jim Murphy, the new Scottish secretary, suggests Gordon Brown would bring ‘real benefit’ by visiting constituency’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/oct/07/glenrothes.scotland
103 Of course he is. Don’t know why he’s only just noticed.
Redwood [yes I know he is abit odd but he knows hiS stuff] is always correcting him on his mistakes.
107 - It was funny because it was true. It kept being repeated because it was true.
108 Oh dear! Salmond will be pleased.
Possibly a smokescreen to cover the ‘no show’?
105. no, just sampling theory..
101. wow huge jump considering how steady that tracking poll has been over the last few days
106. GPWM. Also, of course, the obvious rejoinder to “Cameron doesn’t have any policies” is “OK so what policies do Labour have for the years 2010 to 2015?” The answer, of course, is none as yet, because the Tories haven’t furnished them with any.
107 110 But the joke wasn’t his. It was a bloggers.
I always want to slap Cable when he smirks about it.
I know its something trivial but the fact he takes such public credit for something that wasn’t his is a real turn off.
Note to boys: Don’t take credit for the jokes of others unless you can be sure of getting away with.
Women like men with a sense of humour - their own.
The BBC is getting ridiculous, interviewing Nick Leeson and laughing that we are doomed. This is what our licence fee is going on. Grr.
Charlie & MalcolmG - Gordon & Mandy?
Nick Leeson live on BBC News.
Presenter:
“So if you were in charge, Mr Leeson, what would you do? No pressure.”
89 Your comments about lack of Cameron policies is correct, in a way, as how can you get anything over to the public, in 10 second time slots on the BBC news When he has something to say on forth coming policies the BBC dont send a reporter. Give Sky credit where its due, the whole thing is covered and the questions afterwards, and on the red button for most of the day
DOW falling now - they dont seem to like the FED latest free money offer
107 110 But the joke wasn’t his. It was a blogger’s.
I always want to slap Cable when he smirks about it.
I know its something trivial but the fact he takes public credit for something that wasn’t his is a real turn off.
59 For those looking for a personal inflation Code example: Calculator<a href=
118. BBC again parroting Labour’s populist drivel. It’s so unsubtle, as well.
I doubt if many supporters of West Ham Football Club will vote Labour again.
LONDON, Oct 7 (Reuters) - London soccer club West Ham’s finances were again in the spotlight on Tuesday after the Icelandic bank chaired by the club’s billionaire owner was put in receivership, the latest victim of global financial turmoil.
The Icelandic government said it was taking control of Landsbanki (LAIS.IC: Quote, Profile, Research), the island’s second-largest bank by value, as the country’s financial system threatened to collapse and its currency plunged.
Owner Bjorgolfur Gudmundsson, erstwhile chairman of Landsbanki, led an 85 million pound ($148.3 million) buyout of the east London club in November 2006.
He invested another 30.5 million pounds in West Ham in December 2007 after buying a further 5 percent stake.
He is Iceland’s second-richest person, after his son Thor.
The Gudmundsson family are major shareholders in Landsbanki.
West Ham, already reeling from the loss of its shirt sponsor last month after the collapse of tour operator XL Leisure, could not be reached for comment.
123 - I think it is worrying that the BBC think that asking someone who lost £800million on derivatives trading is qualified to comment.
116: ‘The BBC is getting ridiculous, interviewing Nick Leeson and laughing that we are doomed.’
Of course, now that the perception is that the financial crisis has benefited Lord God King Gordon and provided Labour with a ‘narrative’ for recovery all’s well in the world and the rest of us can go hang.
122. Nothing’s coming up, Richard.
124. How on earth is that Labour’s fault? Please explain?
‘Brown urged to get involved in Glenrothes campaign as date is set’
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Brown-urged-to-get-involved.4566039.jp
125. The perfect man to symbolise Labour’s phantom ‘greedy banker’ scapegoat. This lot would have done a pretty good job editing the Volkischer Beobachter in times past.
‘Glenrothes byelection: Labour pins hopes on Murphy’s lore
- Labour might be the underdog in this crucial byelection but If anyone knows how to win a local campaign it is the new Scottish secretary, Jim Murphy’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2008/oct/07/byelections.gordonbrown
127 Dodgy hperlink. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/business/2008/inflation/default.stm
Agree 110% with the thrust of your thread,Mike Smithson and I’m a mathematician.
Essentially this is the weakness that caused the abandonment of ‘the election that never was’ in 2007.
The open published polls were telling Brown that either he would win big or just win, but Labour’s own findings told them that there were trouble in’t marginals !
I actually think this phenomenon has been accentuated recently and that we could be in a 1955 or 1959 situation where Labour do comparatively well in the heartlands and very badly otherwise.
The situation could be even worse because of the unusual situations in Scotland and Wales.
‘Electors ‘denied vote’ in Glasgow East’
http://www.politics.co.uk/news/opinion-former-index/legal-and-constitutional/electors-denied-vote-in-glasgow-east-1243819.htm
101- JackW
Any indication of the reason for this sudden jump? For the moment it seems an outlier.
Frank B hasn’t the old has-been condemned Obama (good for future relations) and all his new novice ministerial appointments at this time of crisis with his ‘no time for a novice line’.
At the same time he tries to paint Cameron as deep in the Treasury during the ERM mess, which suggest he has lots of experience and not a novice at all.
Trying to have it both ways usually means that the consequences hits you from both directions at once.
65 - Er, Labour’s vote went up in 1997 by quite a significant amount. It was lower than Major got in 1992, that’s all.
135 Obama taking a hit from the Palin negative campaigning? If McCain’s staff think so, get ready for the most dirty final month of campaigning ever seen.
The Kos poll is also coming back slightly on the daily totals, but that looks more like a post-Veep debate hit on Palin working its way out of the numbers.
Iceland is Russia’s bitch now. Might mean Mccain gets a few more votes because of it
132. Thanks, Richard.
The reason for Labour suffering in the marginals is simple. They outperformed the national picture in the marginals in every election since 97, so that is where there is a bigger reverse to come. (note that many of the REALLY big gains in 97 eg. Enfield Southgate, have already returned to the Tories - in accordance with this). They have underperformed in their safest areas, so are shedding fewer votes there now.
128.
Certainly,Gordon Brown was the Chancellor who caused a horrendous debt bubble in this country.It is now bursting and hence the nickname”Crash”Gordon.
Please consider how the “toxic” mortgages arose and which government was in power then.
101-Is it my imagination or have we seen a few of these recently?
UPMYASS not picking this, but then aren’t state polls supposed to lag? Where there is a comparision (sort of) with 538 they say Obama is up by between 4.8 and 6.2%, but thier ammalgamated state polls (as per below) show him 4.9% ahead.
Latest UPMYASS (with change on a week ago)
e-v D 48.4 (+1) R 45.7 (-1)
rcp D 47.3 (+0.7) R 44.7 (-0.7)
538 D 51.7 (+0.7) R 46.8 (-0.5)
2P share
e-v D 51.4 (+1) R 48.6 (-1)
rcp D 51.4 (+0.7) R 48.6 (-0.7)
538 D 52.5 (+0.6) R 47.5 (-0.6)
Incidentally using pollster.com the state aggregate is D 47.4 R 46.1 but I accept their methodology may be apparently suspect.
Would like to think the race is far closer than received wisdom says but can’t be sure. At least not yet.
139. There’s going to be big trouble over this if Russia really does try to extend its strategic reach to Iceland, rather than simply safeguard the ill-gotten gains of a few notables.
RBS down under 100p again.
Time for Gordo to email Pesto again ?
144 - Quite, we need to be alive to countries like Russia trying to leverage geopolitical advantage off of financial mayhem!
146. Iceland was occupied by Britain in 1940. If they are not careful something similar will happen.
Do you think if the Tories were in power and this was happening, what the Labour party would be saying in response to it all being “global events”.
Does anyone remmeber the Tories trying to blame “global events” and “America” last time we had a recession, after the last bug credit boom? Because i do. It didnt work then and it wont work now.
146. Maybe Gord could tap Russia for a bail-out? Keep the red flag flying!
PS Blaming the Tories or general blame shifting by Labour won’t stop RBS going bust or into public ownership of some sort tomorrow. Nationalised Westminster Bank…..jeez.
145 Also a very significant widening of the gap between HBoS and Lloyds-TSB (around 14% today) - raising the chances of that deal unravelling.
Good to see Ken Clarke on the tele just now, saying. ‘One of our problems is we aren’t in the euro’
I hope Dave dumps George and makes Ken his CofE if only to read seant’s reaction.
60
That’s just what we need some, ‘cityspiv’ berating the government for not handing out enough taxpayers money.
138. the dkos poll is going to show a big drop in the gap tomorrow when that +13 from Saturday drops off, at this stage i’d say we’re seeing really good days for obama just dropping off the trackers rather than mccain having good days himself.
147 - yes, my grandfather was stationed there by mistake in WWII - they confused him with another man of the same name! Presumably not the worst posting one could get.
Based on purely anecdotal evidence over the last few days I have the impression that many more Scots are challenging the SNP’s arguments that Scotland’s economy would do better after independance They are beginning to recognise that a number of smaller countries e.g. Iceland, Ireland and Denmark have worse economic problems than larger countries. While this may not be critical in Glenrothes it is another factor which the Unionist parties may attempt to exploit.
148
In fact the clever clogs at Tory HQ who advised all Tory politicians to use the term, ‘Worldwide Recession’ was one David Cameron, anyone know what became of him!
152. Another fellow traveller pops up, parroting the same bullsh*t line. Don’t say you weren’t told a few days ago this would happen…
Re: the Scottish sub-samples, and their relevance to the Glenrothes by-election. Firstly, for a sample of 187 in a population of 5,000,000, the ComRes calculator (if it’s accurate) gives a margin-of-error of over 7%. In other words, the true Labour lead over the SNP could be either miniscule or enormous. Hence, the ‘usual caveats’ Stuart Dickson always refers to are in fact rather gargantuan caveats. Two very similar sub-samples in a row are interesting but scarcely conclusive. It’s also worth pointing out that the most recent ComRes sub-sample had the SNP marginally ahead.
Stuart mentioned the 7% combined Nationalist figure in the ICM poll - this is very curious because on the raw data the SNP were receiving very similar support to previous polls (actually down fractionally). So how the weighting got the figure to as high as 7% is a bit of a mystery - perhaps the Guardian misreported it.
On the question of whether the SNP have historically enjoyed a conference bounce - my subjective recollection is sometimes yes, sometimes no. In any case this is only the second time the party has been in government during conference, so perhaps they can expect greater than normal publicity as a result.
On the issue of Glenrothes, my understanding is that the SNP were thought to be at least marginally ahead within the boundaries of the UK Glenrothes constituency at both the Scottish Parliament and local council elections last year. The significance of this is that, at the time, Labour still enjoyed huge leads over the SNP in polls covering Westminster voting intentions (which is all that the YouGov sub-samples are asked for), while the SNP had the edge nationally in polls for Holyrood. The by-election is perhaps better seen in that context, given that it is perceived to be a straight Labour-SNP contest (similar to Holyrood elections) rather than swamped by the Labour-Tory battle as it would be at a general election.
I would agree that the by-election now appears to be more unpredictable than before, and perhaps as a result there are value bets to be had on Labour, but for reliable predictions of the eventual result we’d be well advised to wait for quite a bit more information.
153- Ok. still the last day of the Diageo/Hotline must be very close to have only a total McCain deficit of -2.
Regarding the betting aspect, this mechanical reduction of the gap could influence the price. + if McCain has a good debate night (and he loves town-hall meetings) the average gap could fall to around 3. Bound to influence some states prices, isn’t it?
I do hope you arent accusing Mr Clarke of talking bullsh*t!
Just announced GB,AD, the FSA and BofE governor to meet tonight.
Council and Euro elections to be held on same day June 4th - confirmed by govt.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2008/10/gordon-postpone.html
160 Gives Gordon another month in the job!
159 - Excellent. Another rumour to spook the markets. What the f*ck are these idiots playing at?!!!
The Russian Minister of finance has denied that any deicision has bee taken regarding a loan to Iceland
159. RBS high on the agenda ?
160. Excellent - a double bill of Labour humiliation to stay up for. Labour to lose all county councils and poll 15% or less in the euros.
160 After the chaos at the Scottish Parliament and Local elections on the same day that should be fun.
but , but, but, i thought boom and bust had gone out with the nasaty Tories????
166. Perhaps Brown is hoping to cause so much confusion that he can annul the results.
159
- no more details yet, but at a guess the BOE Governor is going to be told to lower rates…
159.”Just announced GB,AD, the FSA and BofE governor to meet tonight.”
Confused?
I thought I saw something earlier on Sky which indicated that the BoE and the government were going to make a combined statement?
Didn’t they also have a meeting last night with the Banking Chiefs?
Didn’t the NEC/Cabinet also meet this morning?
Didn’t Darling make a statement to the HoC’s yesterday?
Wasn’t Mandelson holed up in Downing Street all day today?
Etc, etc, etc.
169. That’s going to happen anyway
Re: Labour’s heartlands.
It also looks like there is a two party squeeze going on taking support from the LDs. Something similar happened a year ago leading to Ming’s demise.
The economic crisis is forcing people mainly into 2 and not 3 camps.
163-Seems their reserves have fallen from a peak of $596b to $556b in two weeks.
Afternoon all , on the thread topic , I think it wrong to read anything into the small subsamples for regions or subgroups , these subsamples are not individually weighted and the small samples will have a large MofE .
The Conservative doomsters on here ofyen say that increased unemployment will lead to further loss in Labour support in the polls . This is based on a false premise . The level of unemployment itself has little influence on voting behaviour , the Conservatives won several GE’s despite unemployment being at record levels in the 1980’s and 1992 . This is because even with 3 million unemployed there are 10 times that number in employment or students or pensioners . What does have an influence on voting behaviour is fear of unemployment .
On another topic , the latest tracking polls in Canada from the 3 main pollsters all show a big slippage in support for the Conservatives to 32-34% below what they polled in 2007 . Stephen Harper is facing a humiliating result having called an early election in the self confidence that he would have an increased number of seats if not an outright majority .