Is Gord looking too pleased with himself?
October 10th, 2008
Should he avoid appearing as though he is enjoying the crisis?
After all he has gone through in the past twelve months you can perhaps forgive Brown for feeling a sense of relief that he has now an issue to deal with that apparently plays to his strengths.
But is he looking too pleased with himself? He appears to be enjoying the crisis just a little bit too much. Isn’t there a danger that his demeanour might be seen as not being appropriate for the times the country is going through and the very real worries that millions of people have?
Ben Brogan in his Mail blog writes:“..After today one of his mates might like to start whispering “momento mori” in his ear whenever he starts looking like he’s enjoying himself. The Tories certainly hope the voters will notice that the architect of the “Age of Irresponsibility” is rubbing his hands with a bit too much relish. Two things now threaten Mr Brown: recession and reshuffle. Economic pain will shape the views of voters in ways we cannot yet fully know. And there is still much to play out from the changes of last week, which seem a lifetime ago. The economic crisis has masked the fact that this Government now looks like the Sopranos. Bad blood is inevitable.”
Whether this will affect voters’ view of Labour we shall have to wait and see. One little finding in this week’s Populus poll just out today ought to worry him.
Nearly two thirds of those questioned felt it “was time for change” and of even more concern 47% of Labour voters from 2005 shared this view.
Mike Smithson
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Yes. There’ll be a price to pay…
I think so! He shouldn’t look like he is revelling in misery!
Unfinished article?
The “Hooray, economic disaster!” approach won’t play well, the question is how deep and how serious the damage is. That’ll be partly down to the media (mostly in fact) and partly down to the Tories and Lib Dems replaying the ‘hilarious’ collapsing banks joke over and over.
Are we expecting any polls this weekend? (S Times YouGov?) The coneference effects should have unwound and it would be interesting to gauge immediate responses to the financial crisis/bank bailout/Iceland etc.
410 - For too long (in both personal and business (see Private Equity) worlds) there has been an attitude to borrowing that all that matters is that the interest payments could be serviced.
Nobody ever stopped to ask what would happen when the loans were called in and couldn’t be refinanced.
To many “doom-mongers” were ridiculed because they couldn’t predict precisely the day when it would all go wrong. It’s no comfort to know that they were essentially right all along.
responding to Sean Fear at 400 on previous thread- It sounds like you and your friend have come to a very sensible and realistic conclusion. Once a party becomes the incumbent party, the shine wears off very quickly. Not that people are ready to swing back whole hog to the alternative immediately, mind you, but the starry eyes phenomenon passes quickly. Then the other party starts winning at one level or another as a “protest” vote.
As you suggest, it seems very realistic for Labour to start to see big swings in its favor in lesser elections, such as local elections, almost immediately after the Tories finally take back Westminster. Similarly, I expect the GOP to likely take back the governor’s mansion in Virginia in 2009 and possibly also New Jersey (we’ll have to see how events play out for a while first). Then comes the start of a swing back to the GOP in the 2010 mid-terms (call it a course correction if you like) followed by a wild election season in 2012. That’s the early view, anyway.
Bless him! Let Gordon enjoy himself while he still can. Of course he should be pleased with himself - nobody else is pleased with him - apart from one particular PB regular. At least he is getting out more and if Britain goes bust at least he can say he tried.
“The LibDem candidate in Glenrothes doesnt look a patch on their Glasgow East lad who was easily the best candidate though ironically least successful.”
Easterross October 10th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Agreed.
The fact that the Lib Dems had such an atrocious performance at Glasgow East was exacerbated by the great candidate they had. It was the party people did not like, not the candidate.
If you have a cracking candidate then there is zero excuse for a poor performance.
I do not like the look of their Glenrothes candidate, and I very much doubt that the electors will be overly impressed either. Lindsay Roy is a hell of a sight too mind you…
If a few photos and bits of film of him smiling and enjoying himself could be paired with some of his contradicting statements then that could produce an interesting reactions.
“Is Gord looking too pleased with himself?”
Yes.
I am beginning to think that he may actually be barking mad.
Anyone got any thoughts on whether the problems with the banks could save the high street from significant declines in consumer spending?
10. It is as if he knows he shouldn’t be smirking but is simply so pleased with himself he cannot help it.
Gordon’s latest thing is to “look strong” by going around “ordering” people to do things.
First “ordering” the banks to lower mortgage rates. Then “ordering” Iceland to pay up their bank’s liabilities. Today “ordering” petrol providers to reduce prices.
Voters love this sort of thing in the short term but it usually unravels.
It depends on the line taken by the press.
If it’s not followed up much by the press and/or the bailout is fully successful, then no problems.
If the economic crisis worsens and/or the press decide to wave the issue around a lot, then it could be poisonous in the long term.
Hostage to fortune, I’d say.
10. Beginning? You’ve only recently come to believe so?
11 - I don’t think so. It is going to be interesting as we go into the Christmas sales spike. We will see declines in top end sales to start with.
There seems to be a bit of a disconnect between the latest Populus and the Politics Home tracker. As usual PH thinks everything in the garden is lovely for Gordon. As usual they’re wrong. Dunno why they bother, must be quite embarrassing for a bunch of ‘experts’ predicting the public mood to fall flat on their faces so often.
11. Unlikely, as somebody in retail the medium-term indicators are dreadful.
16 - You don’t think there’s anything in the idea that people aren’t exhibiting “normal” recessional behaviour? What’s the point in cutting back on spending, if you’ll lose any money you choose to save?
In other words, the decline on the high street will be delayed, because people will only stop spending when they run out of money, not in anticipation of running out of money.
13. Brown’s ordering is going to lose its impact as the public rapidly realises everyone is ignoring his demands. Iceland appears to have told him to take a running jump.
Go on let Glum Gordon have a walk on the sunny side of the street - suddenly we can see Gordon “Chubby” Brown, bon vivant, man of letters, global statesman, joker, all rounder.
The G7 are anxiously study his leaflets “Guide to doing everything you can” & “Seven Steps to Global Financial Stability” in Washington, desperate to understand the method and approach that bought him greatness, eager to all become Brownites. How to be bold, to break from the old staid approaches and adopt his single-authored solution (Sweden? who?).
Literary types are fawning around, aghast at their inferior writings against his new Opus on Heroism, tastefully decorated with a bashful picture of the Hero himself.
His opposition have been silenced by his outstanding wit and shake before him. Old people throw flowers as he passes grateful for the little he has nmanaged to find to help them with their fuel bills “I wish I could do more” he cries”but those poor beggars in the City do need whatever mites I can spare”.
Glum Gordon will be back all too soon….
Watching Bloomberg makes me wonder - has anyone ever considered setting up a UK focussed business channel? The problem with everyone relying on American channels is that the focus is always on America to give a lead. Europe just moves lemming like in the direction of America.
21. How true, He’s a sort of bi-polar Walter Mitty.
The Dow has settled the day down about 1.5%. That should give the Asian markets a chance to catch their breath and perhaps even head modestly up for the start of trading in Europe.
Although it could be all impacted by whatever is agreed by the G7 - assuming they can get their ducks in a row.
19 - Oh I don’t think people will exhibit normal recessional behaviour. I think you will see an age split, under 35s will try to ignore it and carry on as normal. Older people will rationally belt tighten. I think we will see a double dip. I think what we are going to see is that people will exhibit unrealistic behaviour. I think the problem is going to be that the lower socio-economic groups are going to suffer first because they have funded their spending from credit and the tap is off!
Test
He can’t win on this site - it’s only a week or two since people here were moaning that he looked knackered, miserable, obviously sleepwalking, etc. In fact someone claimed the other day that he looked terrible when the package was being announced by Darling, within a few posts of someone accusing him of looking happy.
He’s ust shown why he hasn’t got it like Blair.
Blair would proect an anxious seriousness in these times. Brown laughs and jokes.
On party backbiting Blair would ust brush it away casually. Brown projects that anxious seriousness.
On a policy annouincement or good news Blair would project a controlled sense of excitement. Brown plods through in monotone.
He’s not projecting any empathy and that’s his problem.
19 “people will only stop spending when they run out of money, not in anticipation of running out of money”
Plenty of people are reaching/have reached that point anyway. Winter heating bills are concentrating minds already focussed on higher fuel and food costs.
A Cabinet Minister was telling me recently about the time during the Iraq war when photographers were on all-day watch outside his house. The entire family had to practice absolute inscrutable faces, since any smile or frown would be spun by the media.
Gordon Brown
If he looks nervous, they knock him.
If he looks confident, they knock him.
If he looks sad, they knock him.
If he looks happy, they knock him.
There’s always an angle. For Pete’s sake it’s getting dull.
27 Nick - I think the first three words say it all don’t they?
Sorry but too easy a target.
28. But we are always told to look out for such change of moods in people whose health we are concerned about.
The dust is settling, as we look round the sheer enormity of the mess is clearer. Brown presided over this growing crisis which started a long time ago. He has been at the levers of the economy for nearly 12 years. He oversaw the debt and the encouragement of debt. He and Blair went along with the US on world policy. At home he positively fueled the inferno and starved out the productive sector. He is still doing it. Jobs are being lost and more jobs will go. He offers nothing but prances around trying to claim cerdit for putting out a fire he stoked up.
I always thought there was something wrong with him, but laughing and joking at a time like this I find truly disturbing. He seems completely disconnected from reality.
I don’t like his tone; note how often he says “..(so and so) will be punished..we will stop (so and so).. (so and so) will be banned..etc etc. Why is the leader of a left wing government so fixated on punishment?
On another topic; much has been made, with the benefit of hindsight, of peoples alleged stupidity in saving with the Icelandic banks with their higher interest rates. Does nobody remember the constant flood of sneering newspaper articles accusing the British public of stupidity and laziness because everyone hadn’t switched bank accounts from the sleepy high street bank to some go-go internet bank paying higher interest rates?
Please, God, the sooner this lot are out of office the better.
27. 30. A Draper double! Although not the usual suspects!
34 I am not sure God does poltics.
6. I think things play differently if one party has been in power for a long time and the newcomers don’t overreach themselves. Then the first couple of years of policies are the best ones the party has that people were wishing for, and it keeps them up relatively high.
Nick P: Seriousy do you defend all this bullying of Iceland by our great leader?
35. Then put me down for a treble. This a pretty limp thread.
30, ecstasy over an economic implosion is seriously abnormal. Do you think his joke was well judged and will look wise and witty in retrospect?
I thought the anti-terror laws would only be used against a serious and credible threat.
41, Labour are rubbish at designing laws. The anti-terrorism powers are clearly far too sweeping, this is just one example, others, such as Walter Wolfgang, are also well known.
re 27. Nick - I am picking up what is being written elsewhere. This story started with Ben Brogan who is pretty Gord-friendly.
But it does reflect something more fundamental. Tony Blair instinctively knew how to look and act so it resonated with the public mood. This was part of the repertoire of qualities that made him the election-winner that he was. Brown is nowhere near as good.
You might think it trivial but in this 24/7 media age it is almost an essential.
27. The trouble is Brown looks so sinister when he’s smiling. When Browns happy you don’t look at him and think; Doesn’t he look happy. You look at him and think; Whats the devious one cooking up now?
Thats the problem.
No, he’s looking confident and reassuring the public. The last thing we need right now is a sense of panic. Brown is playing this very well indeed. I didn’t think he had it in him.
Actually (having thought about what I just wrote) perhaps he’s looking a little too cheery. Things must be REALLY bad.
38. I do. Not a Brown supporter, but in a situation like this - grabbing assets is a sensible strategy. If Brown did nothing money would have flowed offshore and propped up Iceland, the UK (and depositors) would be in a far worse position. OK, the use of anti-terrorist legislation is naughty (and another good reason for abolishing it, ID cards, the idiotic extradition treaty with the US), but if Brown hadnt people would be asking what had the government done when we were being robbed.
45, ideal for the Zeitgeist is stoicism and a stiff upper lip, much undervalued British traits, I think.
30 Jonathan,
He’s “just getting on with the job” - joking and campaigning at a Literary Festival and pushing his latest book? He’s “doing whatever is necessary” - touring the country on some ego trip while stock markets fall, pensions are devalued, jobs lost and details of His Solution haven’t yet been finalised. He hasn’t put out the fire, he’s offered a possible firebreak that’s not yet been tested but you would think from his demeanour that he has won some great victory.
I don’t want him to look nervous, tired, fraught or over-stressed, confidence, yes that’s great, but this is someone on a high - claiming to have bought down oil prices for f***s sake.
33. But didn’t you know, its all the Tories fault. Even though they haven’t had a sniff of power for 11 years, everything thats going wrong is down to them.
42 - Well you could argue that they are rubbish at designing laws or that they design laws that can be interpreted with a wider scope if necessary.
42. I am no longer convinced that with this govt it’s all just cock-up - yes a fair bit - but there’s some conspiracy as well!
8. Stuart. I think people in Scotland realise that there is no point voting for a minor party who refuse to go into coalition. Why vote Lib-Dem when you can vote Labour instead (if one is anti-referendum)?
27. 30. If you guys think he looks fine …fine.
43 The reason it is noticible is that it contrasts with what went before. I for one am glad that the PM is looking and sounding confident right now. The very, very last thing we need is a sombre funereal nervous PM. Cameron looks uncharacteristically nervous.
Anyway I bet if you had been under the sustained personal attack that GB has taken, you’d be relieved when it was over. We expect far too much from our politicians of whatever party.
27. It’s about being appropriate Nick. Suddenly perking up like this when people are watching their pensions being flushed down the toilet isn’t really appropriate.
He also seems to be under the impression that other world leaders take notice of him. Orders to Iceland, orders to OPEC. Sounds good but looks ridiculous when they take no notice of him.
46. But it was also the tone of the criticism - Brown playing the bully cos it was just Iceland - and the result Russia is gonna bail them out. Blinder Gordo!
43 - Gordon Brown just isn’t as good as Tony Blair. Fact.
And he’s not as good as David Cameron will be either, that is his major problem.
His other major problem is ‘no more boom and bust’ which, frankly, will be his political epitaph.
I think Tony Blair could actually have performed well enough in a crisis like this (he could have sacked Gordon for a start) to take Labour aheasd in the opinion polls. Thanks, Labour, for kicking out Blair and giving the Tories the next election, though the Tories will probably end up fire-fighting the entire first term and might struggle to win more than twice.
38. Iceland deserve all the bullying they get. If Brown had done nothing, some on here would have been demanding that he freeze Icelandic assets. I suspect Mr Scampi would have been one of those.
54, so confident he’s laughing and joking about more banks collapsing?
Cameron was tentative at PMQs, true, but it was unusually lacking in adversarial jousting.
What was interesting was that Brown’s glee at economic difficulties seemed to be matched by his backbenchers, thrilled to bits at financial turmoil.
David, Blair would not have sacked Brown.
He daren’t.
I’m surprised more hasn’t been made from the opposition parties about what Brown did to Iceland. When you think about it, using anti terror laws on a friend and ally like this was pretty outrageous and has certainly inflamed the situation. Iceland clearly are in no mood to negotiate. It would have been much better to have friendly discussions first, rather than blowing it all up like this.
Then again, we all know Labour PM have “form” of falling out with Iceland in the dying days of their administrations.
For me its not a matter of appropriateness - I just think it’s weird. No one should be that happy when they just bet the farm on something this risky. It may be the right thing to do, it might be necessary, it might show leadership, but I still find his demeanour odd. Normal people just arent like this under pressure.
46 He didn’t have much to say about Georgia.
59 I thought Cameron was playing it slightly wrong at PMQs as well but now I wonder if he has studied Brown enough that he knew sacrificing a pawn would result in this frenzied egotism. I had Brown down as having an unusually good PMQs until he threw in that unnecessary glib dig.
58. Ideland may deserve all sorts m8 - frankly I think the fact that 300,000 of them stick it in that god forsaken hole is punishment enuf but it remains unedifying for one of the World’s richest nations to be bullying them in this way. Surely if the British economy is as fundamentally sound as gordo keeps telling us we could have bailed them out for a few months instead of leaving them to the tender mercies of the rooskies.
57 Until recently Cameron has been portrayed as a sort of politcal superman. Paeans of praise have been sung to him across the media. But this week Cameron has been at best an empty suit.
He has not been impressive at all.
Cameron may very well still win the next election, such is his poll lead. But no political leader is as good as Cameron has been portrayed.
Clearly, there is evidence that Cameron is not nimble or good in a crisis.
54. ‘Cameron looks uncharacteristically nervous’.
No. He has just stopped smiling.
58. Bullying no. Seizing assets yes. Gordon has talked tough and somewhat inappropriately. But using what laws were available is the way the cookie crumbles.
66. Tell you what - let’s have an election and find out.
66. I luv it the way the luvvies keep on underestimating DC. they just never learn.
62, see the Daily Politics? They had a psych on who reckoned he has an inferiority complex and wants to be loved, and so spends a fortune (also believed the Mandelson return is self-mutilation virtually).
If accurate, he’ll think people will see him making this enormous decision with an absolute fortune and think he’s super. Back to Gordon the Great.
He wanted oil prices to fall, and look, they have!
I dislike him a lot, and will be quite merry when he loses the general election, but I do worry about the state of his mental health. I hope he doesn’t crack when recession arrives.
No opposition leader is ever going to look that good when they are supporting the Govt. Cameron is sensibly judging that the short term effect of not looking good is a lot better than being accused of partisan politics in the middle of a financial crisis.
68.But using what laws were available is the way the cookie crumbles
Exactly - this why ID cards stink! this is why 42 days stink! this is why Nulab stinks!!
66 “Clearly, there is evidence that Cameron is not nimble or good in a crisis.”
When a poster uses “clearly”, then it is no such thing. Clearly …
27.That was me, and he did look knackered because they had been up all night!
71. I am worried about what happens if the banking crisis escalates and people start blaming him.
68. But its going to be completely counter productive because Iceland will be in no mood at all to give back any of the money that has been lost. International relations and deplomacy is all about the softly, softly approach until all avenues have been explored.
And in any case, while we’re on the subject, I heard this evening that Darling was warned months ago that the Icelandic banking system could be in trouble and he did absolutely nothing.
71. The recession has arrived…. but he doesn’t seem to have noticed… too busy posturing.
72 - I think it is a tough judgment to make, and it is tough to make the balance!
37 In terms of secondary votes, no. People are voting against you almost from day one. Labour had 20% + poll leads in 1998/99, while still suffering substantial net losses to the Conservatives in local elections, and finishing behind them in the 1999 Euros. Kevin Rudd, in Australia, is way above any National/Liberal opponent, but the latter had big gains in the Western Australia elections, and will undoubtedly gain in later State elections.
So, it’s probable Obama will win comfortably, in current circumstances, and likely have comfortable Senate and House majorities. And if he wins well, he’ll probably win again in four years time, unless he proves very bad as President. But, in all likelihood, the Republicans will start regaining ground in lesser elections, because that’s what oppositions do.
77 - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7663596.stm
76, well yes, if the banking crisis gets worse and the £500bn fails then we’ll all have a lot to worry about. I rather hope we get away with a recession.
66. You have no idea what you are talking about.
I do. Personal experience.
You are so wrong, its funny.
76. Why? Gordo is one of the key reasons we are inb the hole in the first place - he set up the FSA/BoE regulatory split. He should take the blame - it’s just pathetic that he wanted to take out Iceland first!
29.”A Cabinet Minister was telling me recently about the time during the Iraq war when photographers were on all-day watch outside his house. The entire family had to practice absolute inscrutable faces, since any smile or frown would be spun by the media.”
Some families don’t have to practice, the first day of the action in Iraq a helicopter went down killing a handful of soldiers from my brothers regiment. We did not know where he was or what he was doing, but spent the day fielding phone calls from concerned friends.
And do I give a toss that a Cabinet Minister in a government that sent thousands of men and women to war had to worry about the media catching them smiling, get real.
83 was a reference to good in a crisis.
83 Bold claim. What personal experience do you have that gives you such a unique insight. Money where your mouth is SallyC. Tell all.
70 I don’t underestimate Cameron at all. I said he was still likely to win didn’t I? But saying that he has been ramped in the media to a point where he has been given almost super human powers.
This week has not been his best. He has looked a little lost.
If Cameron is an empty suit, what is Brown, a man who has prescided over an asset bubble. A man who claims to have fostered enterprise, but then destroys the economy. Brown is a man who has helped businesses…or large businesses collapse into to something smaller. How on earth we will find an engine of economic growth from a country with such a bloated public setor remains to be seen. Could Dolly Draper, Alistair Campbell and the assorted spinners identify the industries or firms which might generate the UK’s future wealth, or are they so in awe of the colosous with the feet of clay. Gabble, Roger you must be so proud of this muppet, so proud that your critical faculties have been left to shrivel into a heap.
One question Cameron might ask on Iceland is why when a website (moneyweek) was warning in March 2008 “if they’re Icelandic, then be afraid; these banks are starting to be priced for bankruptcy risk.” (see comment on the Ussher thread on Iain Dale), questions had be raised with ministers why wasn’t the FSA doing more to ensure retail depositors were protected or made aware of the issues.
I think grinning Gordon will play very badly because, although a week or two of looking/sounding solid in a crisis might have earned him some grudging respect from the British people, it isn’t enough to shift the electorate’s default position - namely, that for the last year, they have ceased to give him the benefit of the doubt.
If his words/actions can be interpreted in either a positive or a negative light, everything (ie general polls and specific questioning on the PM’s attributes) points to them going for the negative interpretation.
So, I reckon, it just depends on whether the media has tired of the ’stoic Gordon’ narrative and wants to switch to the ‘revelling in your misery’ theme, as to how damaging this is for Brown.
8 - possibly the least informed post on this site since Martin Day googled ‘Neil Kinnock’…
77. Iceland doesnt have any money. That’s the point. As the debts of the banks come up for repayment, the Icelandic govt will sell all the assets and still come up short. It will be short by tens of billions, or multiples of GDP. Iceland looked like it was going to extract liquidity from the UK, the UK government acted to preserve UK deposits.
Yes, it is true that the govt (and the FSA) were warned about the Icelandic banks by both a LD peer and a Conservative MP. The govt isnt blameless, but the actions of the govt were sensible.
66 - Utter nonsense. People who say DC is rubbish are as wrong as the Tories who said we’d find out how useless Tony Blair is. Those Tories were wrong, and these Labour supporters are wrong.
87. It is true that gordo has had a lot of exposure this week:
Cracking jokes about bank failures
Invoking anti-terros laws against Iceland
Ordering the World to cut oil prices
etc., etc.,
That old adage about any publicity is better than none never rang LESS true!!
66. If Cameron is not nimble and no good in a crisis, why did Brown call off an election when he was 12 points ahead in the polls a week before.
83. No chance.
I am a party activist - no more - but our paths have crossed in what turned out to be strange circumstances.
I am quite content for you to doubt me - although, frankly, there is
enough in the public domaine for someone widely read.
One of the commenters on Guido’s site (http://www.blogger.com/profile/13775753218753337766) posted the text of the legislation that enabled the Icelandic assets to be frozen:
4 Power to make order (1) The Treasury may make a freezing order if the following two conditions are satisfied.
(2) The first condition is that the Treasury reasonably believe that—
(a) action to the detriment of the United Kingdom’s economy (or part of it) has been or is likely to be taken by a person or persons, or
(b) action constituting a threat to the life or property of one or more nationals of the United Kingdom or residents of the United Kingdom has been or is likely to be taken by a person or persons.
(3) If one person is believed to have taken or to be likely to take the action the second condition is that the person is—
(a) the government of a country or territory outside the United Kingdom, or
(b) a resident of a country or territory outside the United Kingdom.
(4) If two or more persons are believed to have taken or to be likely to take the action the second condition is that each of them falls within paragraph (a) or (b) of subsection (3); and different persons may fall within different paragraphs.
(2)(b) and (3)(a) seem to be easily satisfied in this case. The legislation seems to have designed to be used for the purpose of combatting a foreign state engaged in economic warfare against the UK or its citizens. Given that this legislation exists, it’s kind of hard to suggest that the government shouldn’t have made use of it: one of the government’s jobs is surely to protect British citizens against the acts (or omissions) of foreign governments.
In the meantime, the Tories have called for the rule requiring pensions in payment to be spent on annuities to be suspended http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4916707.ece so presumably the Conservative strategy is going to be - ride the storm, make the occasional positive suggestion and make it look as if they’re doing something to drive the agenda. I imagine when it’s all settled down a bit, then the past 11 years is going to be moved back onto the agenda.
93 I didn’t say he was rubbish did I? By the sound of it you really, really want him to be Tony Blair almost as much as he does.
I for one hope is he as good as the hype, since he is still odds on to be PM and we’ll all have to live with him. I just have not been impressed by his response to this crisis. Fair enough?
I think you can take this cricism. How outrageous to criticise St Dave! Compared to the stuff that is dished out at GB day in day out it is mild. You can take it.
TIMES: The Government said that it would consider calls led by David Cameron for a suspension of pension rules to prevent people retiring now being disadvantaged by the financial crisis.
This is what DC has been doing.
96 Go on, give us a clue!
In a few minutes - BBC1 News reporting on the race factor in American election.
61: GIN, on the contrary, Iceland is negotiating with a UK Treasury team right now. I like Nordic countries as much as anyone else, but it would have been crazy to allow them to default on their obligations to UK savers while repaying Icelandic savers (which is what they were proposing) and sit idly by while the Icelandic banks withdrew the money from the UK.
I’d ask whether you and scampi were expressing Tory policy on these matters, but as Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne appear to have entered a Trappist monastery, it’s not reasonable to expect you to know.
101 johnboy. The Yeldarb effect ??
37- That may be true in the UK, but it seems that even there, the recently ousted party quickly begins to improve its results in local elections, European elections, etc. Note that I didn’t say they immediately start outpolling the dominant party, but they do quickly regain ground.
In the U.S., it is the execption, not the rule, for a newly installed incumbent party, particularly one installed with total control, to maintain that standing for long. Exceptions can always happen, but they shouldn’t be expected. The last time one party swept in and managed to avoid losing serious ground for an extended period was when the Democrats managed it post-1932. Since then, all the examples point to reasonably quick comebacks for the party out of power. The only two periods since 1932 where a party has managed to extend dominance at least into the medium term were 1960-68, where the Democrats managed continuous control largely on the shock and sympathy factor following the Kennedy assassination and, to a lesser extent, 2000-2006, when the GOP largely managed to maintain slender overall control. All of this points to the likelihood that the GOP will make a faily quick comeback to at least general parity. The landmines that Obama is likely to face early in his term will only heighten the risks for the Democrats as well as the opportunities for the Republicans.
Hi guys. My girlfriend has just asked: what happens when the bank betfair keep all your stake money in goes bust? Could do with a good response to reassure her. Any advice?
re 66 ‘Clearly, there is evidence that Cameron is not nimble or good in a crisis.’
Sorry, Jonathan. What about the Tory conference last year when he was under huge pressure amid the Brown bounce, election fever (and the expectation of defeat) and a summer of criticism about grammar schools and Rwanda trip during floods? He held his nerve, pulled off a brilliant speech and saved him and his party from likely defeat.
This week, he has merely kept a lower profile than normal because he promised co-operation with the govt in a crisis and, realistically, could say or do little, as an opposition politician, to improve or influence the situation.
That hardly constitutes buckling in a crisis.
102. NP, MP: Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne appear to have entered a Trappist monastery
Unfortunate timing, coinciding as it does with posts 97 and 99.
I don’t have any problem with the Govt action to protect Uk interest viz Iceland.
Like with everything else that doesn’t excuse the shameful inaction that got us into this position in the first place.
105 - I dunno but what are the odds of that?
87 - Did you see Cameron’s interview on last Sunday’s Politics Show during which he calmly and persuasively articulated the case for bank recapitalisation that was effectively the package introduced on Wednesday? No nervousness or diffidence there.
At PMQs, he strove to seek common ground with the government, but from the outset was drowned out by the orchestrated barracking (by Nick Brown) from the Labour benches. And Brown’s snide parting shot merely reaffimed the crass partisanship.
I think Cameron was geninely taken aback by this and thus ‘lost’ the encounter. However, I’m pretty sure his learnt the lesson. Put the boot in and hard - it’s the only language that Loutish Labour understands.
105 - It’s RBS so the country goes bust.
82. I am not saying that the £500 billion package will fail outright, but I am suggesting that some of the government guarantees on interbank borrowings are actually called on. I am disturbed by the scale of Lehman losses* and the pressure on Morgan Stanley.
* When Lehman failed people suggested bonds would be fully repaid. A week later it was down to 40%, today it settled at just under 9%. This on outstanding bonds of US$150 billion or so. Then borrowings of another couple of hundred billion (I dont know what the repayment rate was on this proportion). The CDS settlement is a headline US$270 billion. The numbers are worse than I had thought.
110 - it was quite incredible some of the defences put up for the shameless performance of Labour MPs last Wednesday.
Mostly along the lines of “if you can’t take it, you shouldn’t give it” - which totally misses the point of bipartisanship and suspension of normal political hostilities.
Latest Newsweek national poll :
McCain 41% .. Obama 52%
http://www.newsweek.com/id/163337
112 - News from the US was suggesting that the Lehmann losses weren’t as bad as expected. Is that consistent with this post?
Newsweek Poll: Obama up 52:41 (were both tied on 46 in their last poll)
http://www.newsweek.com/id/163339
114 Slower - but with more information. You pays your money…
114 Slower - but with more information. You pays your money…
106 Sadly in a real crisis, rather than a self inflicted political one like Dave’s Grammar School wobble, it takes more than a good speech to solve the problem.
As a matter of record he has not tried to keep a low profile. Dave was due to be on GMTV on Thursday, but got pulled at the last minute to be replaced by the PM. It is pure spin to say that Dave’s low profile has been by design.
110 Cameron was putting “the boot” into bankers at the time and was caught out as a bit of a hypocrit. I guess Dave should be left alone to say one thing on Sunday and another thing on Wednesday and never be “taken aback”.
Anyway, come on guys my critism of your St Dave is minor compared to the stuff you dish out at Brown. You can take it. For him, he’s had a bad week. And surely your poll lead will still be there. So what are you worried about?
101. did you watch it? not insightful in any way
64.”59 I thought Cameron was playing it slightly wrong at PMQs as well but now I wonder if he has studied Brown enough that he knew sacrificing a pawn would result in this frenzied egotism. I had Brown down as having an unusually good PMQs until he threw in that unnecessary glib dig.”
Ted, Cameron and Osborne smelt the coffee at the start of their conference and immediately changed their strategy and their tone. Its that kind of instinctive timing and the natural leadership skills that Gordon Brown simple cannot produce. During Cameron’s speech he was backed up by Osborne and Hague, no smiles or complacency.
Just on Wednesday some Labour posters on here gleefully commented on how ashen Osborne looked, the other half noted that was because he probable realised the implications of just how bad things were economically. Just look at the way both parties backbenchers behaved.
76.”71. I am worried about what happens if the banking crisis escalates and people start blaming him.”
He will stand down.
Newsweek coming out tomorrow has Obama leading McCain by 11 points 52 - 41:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/163337
92. If the Icelanders are so short of money they can just go out and kill more whales. A great source of both nutrition and fuel.
105. My response would be “Betfair? What’s that?”
66. Nonsence! What do you seriously expect DC to do? Yes he has as highlighted under 110 not been idle. He could also aggressively attack Brown on financial issues but if he did he could upset the markets even more and make the banking support package less likely to work.
110, I concur he was taken aback, but I’m sure he was considering whether to retaliate or stick to softly softly (which he did).
It will be interesting to see how long that lasts.
115. The CDS losses were slightly worse (last bond prices are 13%, auction price 8.6%) the good news was that no one blew up.
What worried me was that Lehman’s losses are so large.
119, GMTV, where one presenter had a front row seat at Labour conference and another is the other half of Draper? Shocking they might show a little bit of bias.
100. No.
re 47 The smiling assasin.
1. QT on Thursday.
2. This Week. Including Boulton commenting on the inapproprate joke.
3. 5Live this yesterday afternoon.
4. 5Live this morning.
5. The Daily Politics.
6. Brogan.
7. Here.
5 wasn’t negative, but the others all made some slightly resentful reference amid more positive comments .
121. I agree with your revised analysis but have doubts if Brown will stand down until very close to the GE when he knows he would also definately lose.
New Rasmussen poll for Oregon :
McCain 43% .. Obama 54%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/oregon/election_2008_oregon_presidential_election
Are we all waiting like a coiled spring for the outcome of Troopergate? If they recommend charges be brought against Sarah Palin, could it be The Old Cheerio Routine?
119.
When bankers award themselves huge bonuses, its a matter for the shareholders and the board that runs the company. Full stop.
When the Government bails out the bank, with public resources it becomes a matter of the government how much some people are paid.
The two are quite different. We all have a financial interest in the publically funded organisation
119 He is keeping a relatively low profile. People like Michael Heseltine and Kenneth Clarke are being put up for Question Time. Cameron and Osborne are not publically pontificating, making the sort of statement that would get them on the news. They are still there, but not making as much noise as they could. DC is Leader of HM Opposition: even in an economic crisis, he can get on the news if he wants to.
It is not hyprocrisy to (a) be happy that, in good times, bankers are rewarded for success and for enriching shareholders and (b) suggest when they have f***ed up so badly they have driven their banks into needing a government bailout, they should get nothing (and preferably be fired). In fact, any reasonable remuneration policy would seek to do just that, although I’d suggest there should be more emphasis on the long term.
124 I am sorry I have touched a raw nerve. I honestly didn’t set out to be quite so provocative. Just saw a few chinks in the great Dave’s armour this week. At least we’re all cheering on Obama
127 I guess it’s only the Telegraph and the Spectator who tell it like it is.
128 I will ask for more at the next pb.com party.
Sounds like very, very good gossip. When is that party BTW Mike?
Night all.
It’s a long time since I heard anything that sounds quite as stilted as George Osborne using the slogan ‘Age of irresponsibility’ several times in the same interview. He sounds like he’s got Tourettes syndrome.
And your point is what Roger?
134 - Not provocative, just your usual entertaining and good natured self. Yeah, yuou’re right - we can and should take it in good spirit. That’s politics
131. is the report going to be made public?
128 Its not gossip. Its just none of my business.
But I saw a side of him and learnt something.
He is a very strong person.
125. I agree. He was taken aback but decided not to allow himself to be diverted by it.
He is not usually short of one liners. Though Osbornes the worst.
He has a wickedly sharp sense of humour and has to tread carefully.
Jack W, it ignored Yeldarb effect - said the polls might overstate Obama because of racial attitudes and provided unfavourable comments from people queuing for a Palin rally to demonstrate the resonance of the allegation by Palin that “Obama is not like you and me.” One person admitted race would be a factor. Therefore concluded there was a motivated stop-Obama vote. Without making any allegations, BBC made the Republican campaign look extremely ugly. Also reported on Palin investigation that result is awaited as the inquiry panel read the 1000 page report- so far on page 50.
I can well understand why Gordon Brown would feel more relaxed when the story is not about him. He would, however, do well not to show it quite as obviously.
So far, Gordon Brown has done the PR side of the crisis fairly well (I will not pretend that I understand whether the substance is any good). I mean that in the sense that he looks serious and determined. However, the general public do not understand why banks should be paid money and in their enthusiasm to dish the Tories, they have neglected to deal with the criticism from the left.
If Gordon Brown can look concerned and at the same time explain why it was important to support the banks, he would deservedly reap rewards.
140 Johnboy. Thank you.
138 Supposedly the Troopergate report comes out within the next hour….but they are reviewing it page by page. And the report apparently is 263 Pages long and has over 800 pages of evidence.
re119;
But Jonathan, whether self-inflicted or not, last year was a far better test of how Cameron responds in a crisis than this. Obviously, his personal/party’s crisis last year is utterly trivial compared to the current global financial crisis - but in terms of objectively assessing his mettle, the former was the telling indicator.
He was directly in the firing line then (and turned British politics on its head). He is not now, because he is little more than a bystander, so you can’t really judge him on it.
By pointing out that he was going to be on GMTV but was ditched when Brown became available, you prove the point that his views, as an opposition leader supporting the govt, are of limited interest to the media at the moment. That’s an inevitable fact of life, not proof of failure in a crisis.
139. I think you should stop there
30 “There’s always an angle. For Pete’s sake it’s getting dull.”
Oh the irony
Noticed that Cable was on C4 news but no sign of Tories, reminded me of the CCO (as it was then) muppet who told me the reason there was nobody on Newsnight when Estelle Morris “lost” all the A level results was because “nobody watches Newsnight, so we never bother”
This week Brown has seemed more sure of himself and the country appears to be crossing their fingers and hoping he really can bring us through it. HOWEVER. The most striking phrase was one I heard on Radio 4. In 1929 all the central bankers and world leaders had lots of experience yet the Great Depression still hit. That experience did them no good at all. Gordon Brown presided over a benign period for the economy where he basically did nothing. His experience is not relevant to the circumstances we find ourselves in.
In the long term DC and the Tories will benefit from this crisis. Brown designed the regulatory framework, Brown ran the economy for 10 years, Brown sold our gold, Brown said no more boom and bust. But DC and GO need to start appearing on TV and backing the moves being made to get us out of this - an appearance of difference will fuel the fear in the market and could drive things down. That is why Nick Brown’s co-ordinated offensive on Wednesday could have been more damaging than expected. Politics is occasionally for grown ups. Today is one of those times!
Crick getting it all wrong on Newsnight!
alex at 113: the point was that Labour MPs didn’t think DC was being genuinely non-partisan - as Quentin Letts (no fan of Labour) pointed out in the Mail, Cameron’s questions had barbed subtexts, but were phrased to look non-partisan. People who are consistently fair get a fairer hearing, though PMQ is always a bearpit.
Brown looks dreadful whenever he is on the telly, people have not changed their view of the Government in the last week. Indeed, when advising friends of the Times piece on Nationalisation of the Banks that appeared on the Times Website and then misteriosly disappeared, one ventered a sheer contempt for the BBC’s hand in all of this. I know people who have been given there cards in the last week - they see a wiered Bloke smiling at peoples’s misfortune and a group of Labour MP’s breaying about some partisan point.
Without wanting to sound like a Mycthite Commie Basher - this endless leaking at weekends to the media by some person in the Treasury about Government plans is dreadful - indeed it amounts to a Socialist Putsched against the private sector. These commies need hunting down and shooting as they are screwing the economy.
Brown’s smile is beginning to show up more and more on tv and is beginning to attract comment among my friends at work, not positively either. Plis Nick Palmer’s arrogant assumption that the tories are silent was nicely burst by finding out they’ve been working on the pensions issue, makes you wonder why the government hadn’t thought about that yet.
Newsnight suggesting we might slash defence spending… it is unbelievable!
Poor man on R5 phone-in tonight, sold UK house went to Aus all money in Icleland now he and family have nothing at all. £160k gone.
“But DC and GO need to start appearing on TV and backing the moves being made to get us out of this”
Interesting point. Alex Salmond has been getting in on the story in the Scottish media on that basis.
Yet I’ve been struck how almost invisible the Conservatives have appeared to be.
149. His questions were easy, he made no sharp attacks, yet the government benches couldn’t even handle THAT amount of questioning? And Brown had to wait until he knew Cameron couldn’t respond to make an attack? Kinda shows his level of courage really.
Palin’s Troopergate scandal was fabricated by Bill Ayers — really, read it here first!
http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/bookman/entries/2008/10/10/the_palin_troopergate_report_w.html
150 Agree that the leaks have been extremely damaging. Note that the co-ordinated rate cut was remarked on because nobody leaked it! This leakage is causing direct financial damage to the economy and anyone responsible should be prosecuted.
156 According to the Speccie the decision was sorted out by the BoE and Brown was onl informed as he went into PMQs.
So there wasn’t any time for them to leak it.
149. I watched that Commons exchange and I think the Labour MP’s performed like it was a partisan free for all - Cameron acted like a statesman, Brown & your fellow MP’s behaved like naughty Children.
You were not in the chamber IIRC - the scene i saw from the Labour MP’s and the quotes in the press about *Labour’s Falklands war* and somebody doing Communist phrases do not enhance Labour’s reputation IMO.
154 Exactly my thou